We are very much in fog of narrative terrain. There is no reason for Russia to go and poke Poland given that it is handily prevailing on the battlefield in Ukraine, and contrary to European paranoia, does not have plans to march to Paris. So it seems difficult to believe that the purported incursion of Russian drones into Poland was intentional. However, I have been checking official Russian news sources since the story broke a few hours ago. The silence so far suggests their might be something to the story
The latest Twitter reports indicate that the facts are correct, that Russian drones did enter Poland, but that it was accidental and that they were surveillance drones, not payload drones:
🇷🇺🇧🇾🇵🇱 DRONES DRIFTED OFF COURSE DUE TO ELECTRONIC WARFARE.
Poland and Belarus cooperated and exchanged information about drones that went off course into their territory!
Official statement from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense regarding the air defense operations last… pic.twitter.com/RVWpJDd1pp
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) September 10, 2025
But even with Belarus saying it alerted Poland to what was up, Poland has said it is invoking NATO’s Article 4. Recall that this is actually a weak obligation; member statesmerely need to consider whether or not to act based the treat report. Its text:
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
Also note, that as we have pointed out, NATO professed to be a consensus-based organization. There are no rules, such as for the EU, as to which issues require a unanimous vote versus a qualified majority. There does not even seem to be a formal voting process.
However, in theory, an Article 4 process could then lead to the invocation of Article 5:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
It is hard to see, if the reports above are correct, that surveillance drones entering Poland amounts to an armed attack. But the NATO warmongers are a creative bunch and very eager to get the US more involved. And as you will soon see, some NATOO members did invoke Article 4 when the Special Military Operation started, and that had no practical impact.
Note also that as we report in Links that Trump is trying to get Europeans to impose secondary sanctions on India and China over their imports of Russian fuel. It does not seem like a stretch that the Administration will use the Poland incident to press hard for them to comply.
Now to the press updates. From Newsweek:
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country would formally request the invocation of NATO’s Article 4 in response to the violation of his country’s airspace by 19 Russian drones, some of which were shot down…
Unlike Article 5’s collective defense element, NATO’s Article 4 does not trigger military action, but initiates a formal alliance discussion when one member considers its territorial integrity or security is threatened.
Since NATO was founded in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked only a handful of times—most notably by Eastern European members after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
And for more detail about the underlying event, from BBC. Note its headline says 19 drones entered and 4 were brought down; a live blog entry has Zelensky claiming 25. A key bit is even normally Russia-friendly Viktor Orban of Hungary as criticizing the drone entry:
French President Emmanuel Macron describes the incursion as “simply unacceptable”, adding that he will soon meet Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte.
The European Council’s president, Antonio Costa, says Europe is increasing investment in its defence following Russia’s “reckless” actions. “Peace and security in Europe cannot be taken for granted,” he adds
Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minster, calls the air incursion “unacceptable”. Orbán is the only EU leader to have kept close ties to the Kremlin following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Petr Fiala, the Czech prime minster, says it’s “hard to believe” that last night’s Russian drone attack on Poland was a coincidence. He accuses Russia of “systematically probing to see how far it can go”.
Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, claims that Russia “seeks escalation” and “carries responsibility” for violating Poland’s air space.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs also expresses his full support and solidarity to Ukraine, emphasising that allies “must be working together”.
BBC took pains in its headline to depict the drones as having entered Poland; many other stories are depicting the incident as an attack. For instance, from India’s Economic Times in Has World War III started with Russia opening a new front: what happens if Poland, a NATO country is attacked:
As geopolitical tensions escalate amid ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, concerns have surged globally about whether Russia opening a new military front could mark the beginning of World War III. Central to this concept is the status of Poland, a member state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and US President Donald Trump’s stand on Europe’s security and defense.
The possibility of Russia attacking Polish territory brings to attention–NATO’s most critical collective defense clause, Article 5 of the treaty, and raises questions about the alliance’s response and global security outcomes.
The recent escalation is linked directly to Russia’s intensified aerial offensive on Ukraine, which has spilled over into Polish airspace in a direct provocation. On September 9, 2025, Poland reported multiple incursions by Russian drones that entered its airspace. In response, Poland scrambled its own and NATO allied aircraft, and deployed ground-based air defenses to intercept these drones.
Bloomberg’s formulation is Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones After Airspace Violation. The Wall Street Journal has NATO Planes Shoot Down Russian Drones Inside Poland as the third piece in its left column. The Financial Times has Nato forces shoot down Russian drones over Poland as its lead story. However, the pink paper’s text was more saber-rattling:
Nato fighter jets have shot down Russian drones over Polish airspace for the first time, after what Warsaw described as an “unprecedented violation” of its territory that led it to trigger emergency consultations in the alliance.
The operation in the early hours of Wednesday, during a massive Russian attack on Ukraine, involved Dutch and Polish fighter jets, while German Patriot missiles were put on alert and an Italian early warning aircraft provided support.
The alliance said it was “committed to defending every kilometre of Nato territory, including our airspace”.
It marks the most serious clash between Russia and the US-led military alliance since the start of Moscow’s full-blown war against Ukraine in February 2022.
Sky is a tad cautious. The answer to its headline, The pivotal question for NATO as it decides how to respond after Russian drones violate Polish airspace, is “What was Russia’s intent?”
Axios, which sometimes gets an early bead development in this Administration, does not have a story up yet. The lead piece at the Washington Post is Poland says it shot down Russian drones that violated its airspace. From the top of that account:
Polish forces shot down Russian drones that had violated its airspace while attacking targets in Ukraine, Poland’s military said Wednesday.
The Russian action amounts to an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace and posed “a real threat” to Polish citizens, the Polish military’s Operational Command said in a statement.
Polish aircraft were scrambled, according to a statement from Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz. The country’s territorial defense forces were activated to conduct ground searches for the downed drones, he added. Polish police said they had found a damaged drone in eastern Poland.
Interestingly, DW has moderated its headline. Google shows the story first running under Poland hits drones in its airspace as Russia attacks Ukraine; when you click through, you now get Poland calls NATO meeting after downing Russian drones. However, the summary at the top still depicts the drone entry as an attack:
This update is from about an hour and a half before post launch time:
Poland summons Russian envoy over drone violations
Poland has summoned Russia’s top diplomat in Warsaw after saying it had downed several Russian drones that crossed into its airspace overnight.
Andrei Ordash, Moscow’s charge d’affaires, told Russian state news agency RIA Novosti he had been called to the Polish Foreign Ministry for a noon meeting. He said Warsaw had not yet presented evidence that the drones came from Russia.
As of that time, TASS merely had a big photo of Polish President Donald Tusk and a banner over it but no story; RT does have some information about the Russian version of events, which is in line with what Lord Bebo picked up from the Belarus broadcast:
According to Tusk, the Polish military detected 19 separate violations of its airspace over seven hours, with at least three and possibly four drones downed.
He claimed the aircraft came from Belarus rather than Ukraine, and characterized the incident as a Russian “provocation.”
The Belarusian military earlier reported having given their Polish counterparts early warning that some drones used by Ukrainian and Russian forces for mutual attacks “lost their track as a result of the impact of the parties’ electronic warfare assets.”
“This allowed the Polish side to respond promptly to the actions of the drones by scrambling their forces on duty,” said General Pavel Muraveiko, the chief of the general staff of Belarus.
The general added that some of the stray aircraft had been intercepted by Belarusian air defenses. He stressed that the exchanges with Poland were part of regular communications about incoming threats, with the Polish side regularly informing officials in Belarus about aircraft detected in Ukrainian airspace.
The fact of press equivocation, despite the very loud denunciations from European leaders, suggests cooler heads will prevail, particularly since even if they wanted to Do Something, they are confronted with limited means. Stay tuned.
I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of Zelenski demanding that in revenge, that the Poles send their military into the Ukraine to fight the Russian bear. And Starmer, Macron and Merz would be phoning the Poles to encourage them to do this with assurances that they will send in their own military to reinforce the Poles just as soon as they can organize something so any day now. Mind you, the hysteria over his makes a nice distraction over the Israeli attack in Doha.
The distraction from the Doha attack is a good point.
Do we have any ideas regarding how this will play into the current political instability in France and Germany? My impression is that it will take a lot more than a surveillance drone incursion into Ferengi territory to cause the EUrocrats to risk the ire of their people right now. Past population opinion surveys suggest no one is willing to accept an offer of more austerity to support Ukraine. If that’s true, then what is the end goal here? What happens if someone declares a violation worthy of Article 5 and no one answers the call? Doesn’t that mean the end of NATO?
I understand why Poland is posing as the defender of Europe right now. I understand they stand to gain a lot in any reconfigured forces or energy agreements. But I have no idea why France and Germany and Spain and Italy would go along with that plan. I also don’t see where the US and others have any materiel to provide that support the Polish delusions of mediocrity. If anyone else can point to a decent analysis of all this I would appreciate it very much.
IMO, not an attack, not a provocation. Belorussians, who also detected a few drones in their airspace, say that this might be the effect of drone jamming and given the number of drones Russia used, many of them in Western Ukraine, it might be the case EW was the cause. According to articles in Strana this is not the first time and Russian drones have “violated” Polish or Romanian air space though this time the number of drone were much higher. Reports suggest also that some fell down in the fields on fuel exhaustion suggesting these were not in full or any control by drone operators. Geran drones were said to have been identified though so far no images have been shown of these to my knowledge. The incident is used by everyone to push their own political interests as usual. Damage has been minimal to my knowledge. Apparently one drone hit the roof of a house without injuries reported.
Escalation is mainly in the narrative as usual with the West. The centre of gravity of Western strategy as J. Baud says repeatedly. From a military point of view the escalation in narrative might be intended to try to reduce the willing of Russians to use drones too close to Ukrainian borders with other countries or manoeuvring too close or within in those spaces.
Ignacio: Thanks for this analysis.
And Macron, of course, wants the distraction from his own political problems, given that Bayrou had to be replaced by Lecornu and that La France Insoumise wants to toss Macron out the window.
What better than saber rattling?
Those of us who’ve been paying attention to the YouTube analysts such as the Military summary channel know that this isn’t the first time that Russian drones have temporarily crossed Polish airspace en route to W. Ukraine.
Previous times the Polish respond was to scramble aircraft and do nothing further.
So this looks like a deliberate escalation and fog of war narrative manipulation by NATO.
Pearl clutching over something they have ignored before.
My first thought: this is a false flag (Europe/ Ukraine needs one).
The scenario I thought of: these drones are indeed Russian, but some western power (Ukraine? Poland?…) directed them deliberately towards Poland by spoofing satellite navigation signals, so the drones “thought” they were somewhere else. Remember that these are not very advanced drones and stuff like this can be done quite easily.
This would also explain the (so far) lack of Russian response: they don’t know exactly how it was done and it is very embarrassing for them if true.
Apparently Belarus has shot some down themselves and they claim they shared information with Poland etc. They claim the drones went off course, which would be 100% true if my theory is correct.
This is pure speculation of course, and I can be proven wrong shortly after this post. But it was the first thing that crossed my mind, because it makes the most sense. I have literally been expecting a false flag operation for some time now, because the only chance for the EU/Ukraine to win now is to change the game. (Remember they already tried to change the game last year with the failed Kursk invasion).
While there is much fog, what I retain is that Nato had a certain amount of planes in the air (2 AWACS-like, some F16 & F35 iirc) and was only able to shoot down 3 of the 19 drones.
So much for NATO air defense.
…or the three that were “shot down” were the ones that had run out of fuel?
This is preoccupying, and I wonder if the Financial Times understands the import of these assertions: “The operation in the early hours of Wednesday, during a massive Russian attack on Ukraine, involved Dutch and Polish fighter jets, while German Patriot missiles were put on alert and an Italian early warning aircraft provided support.” I can assure you that very few people in Italy know of (or will approve of) Italian craft hovering over Poland.
And who in the Netherlands approved their involvement? The Dutch people? (Sorry, I slipped.)
There are some factors to consider here:
–Last week’s episode included Ursula van der O’Hara bravely fighting off Mandingo, who was trying to hijack her plane and despoil her. (The level of racism in Northern Europe seems to be so thick that they thought they could get by with a casus belli like “White Lady Outraged.”)
–Poland is the drama queen of Europe. The last paragraph from Lord Bebo says, “He stressed that the exchanges with Poland were part of regular communications about incoming threats, with the Polish side regularly informing officials in Belarus about aircraft detected in Ukrainian airspace.” Oh. What a coinkydink after the “Bulgarian failure” scam.
–As Barbara Spinelli has pointed out, if Nato and the EU are going to be dominated by some small and smallish states of Central Europe and their big historical resentments, it will lead to a breakup of both.
–Because: With all of this talk of rearmament, we are in the Anton Chekhov logic — if a pistol is brought on stage in act I, the weapon necessarily has to go off.
–Because: These are the same countries with access to the Baltic Sea that are still deeply confused by how the Nord Stream pipeline could possibly have blown up.
“Poland is the drama queen of Europe”
Given Poland’s history over the last 150 years that is hardly surprising.
Even Rosa Luxemburg might acknowledge Polish concerns over its existence and future relationship with Russia.
Given Poland’s history over the last 150 years, they have the least ammount of reasons to be drama queens now. Even Rosa Luxemburg would acknowledge that.
Poland would do well to look at a map of Europe circa 1830 – what’s missing?
I think this sentence should say “Poland” instead of “Ukraine”:
“The latest Twitter reports indicate that the facts are correct, that Russian drones did enter Ukraine, but that it was accidental and that they were surveillance drones, not payload drones:”
Fixing…
RT has a banner with a short blurb saying that Peskov will make a statement.
https://www.rt.com/russia/624414-poland-claim-peskov-response/
While electronic jamming is most probably the culprit for these drones going astray, I would also speculate that some AI loaded into the drone software may have led them astray. It’ll be interesting to see how all of this plays out.
“Invoking Article 4” sounds dramatic, but of course NATO meets at senior level all the time, and at most this means an unscheduled meeting. I suspect that the incident, whatever its actual nature, will be used by those who want to argue that we must continue to shovel money and weapons into Ukraine because if we don’t the Russians will come for us. In other words, it will be defensive in nature, aimed at shoring up public opinion which is increasingly starting to ask awkward questions, and delaying the inevitable.
I see the Russians are playing a straight bat and saying there’s no evidence the drones are theirs. This may well indicate that they just don’t know or aren’t sure. Electronic failure or jamming both seem reasonable possibilities.