Monstrification Aeon
Scientists Explain Why ‘Harmless’ Sharks Devoured Swimmer in Chilling World First Science Alert
New DNA Evidence Reveals What Really Killed Napoleon’s Grand Army in 1812 ZME Science
The Dupont Metro Sticker Wars Overthinking
Climate/Environment
Melissa Undergoing Extreme Rapid Intensification, Catastrophic Impacts Expected for Jamaica Eye on the Tropics
New Satellite Data Reveal a Shift in Earth’s Once-Balanced Energy System Eos
Something very odd going on..
Arctic temperatures usually begin to fall at this time of year.
Currently there’s very little sign of that and if anything it’s likely we’re going to see temperatures rise again. pic.twitter.com/hs15pZY9Vp
— Met4Cast 🍂 (@Met4CastUK) October 25, 2025
Pandemics
‘Every time I step outside, the first thing on my mind is my forehead’: the women getting hair transplants The Guardian
Scars from the pandemic: understanding post-COVID-19 interstitial lung disease Breathe
WHN joins in the chorus: Medical masks are not PPE World Health Network
The great divide: How different Covid-19 control strategies shaped pandemic outcomes New Zealand Public Health Communication Centre
Tuberculosis cases are surging in the UK: Symptoms and advice you need to know The Independent
Water
Japan
In Abe’s shadow Observing Japan
Takaichi set to remove Japan’s defense export bans Asia Times
China?
US, China tee up sweeping trade deal for Trump, Xi to finish Business Times
The Illusion of American Leverage Warwick Powell. E.g.:
(1) US Auto Plants Weeks Away From Chip Shutdowns, Lobby Group Says Bloomberg
(2) China shift to higher-end exports boosts margins, mutual gains as US reliance dips: report South China Morning Post
(3) China’s industrial profits surge 21.6% in September, biggest jump in nearly two years CNBC
(4) China’s Pharma Leverage Is ‘Nuclear Option’ in US Trade Talks Bloomberg
China’s economic successes are reshaping the Western media narrative South China Morning Post
Stabilizing the U.S.-China Rivalry RAND We linked to a Simplicius piece on this in yesterday’s Links, but here’s a little more:
Absolutely extraordinary paper by RAND, the main think tank of the US military-industrial complex, and another key sign that the U.S. deep state – despite all the chaos and noise – is shifting away from deterring China, towards accepting coexistence (it’s literally what they… pic.twitter.com/AHNLfVuv6m
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) October 25, 2025
🇺🇸🇨🇳Beware of “analysts” (Arnaud Bertrand in this case) selling you US-China “peace” based on obscure papers disconnected from reality.
Arnaud is waving around a RAND paper as if it is proof that there is some sort of “retreat” in US policy regarding encircling and containing… pic.twitter.com/Ba7OznWmkG
— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) October 26, 2025
Navy helicopter, jet crash in South China Sea in separate incidents Navy Times
US grants 0% tariffs to Malaysia alongside Cambodia and Thailand Intellinews
Syraqistan
Revealed: The plan for a ‘New Gaza’ – and the four militias Israel is backing to defeat Hamas Sky News
Israeli excavations around Al-Aqsa threaten partial mosque collapse: Statement Al Arabiya. That sure is convenient.
Trump’s Paradox: Opposing Israeli West Bank Annexation in Words but Allowing It in Practice Haaretz
Baby, Boom: How to Keep Israeli Kids Busy on Vacation? Take Them to a Minefield Haaretz
Trump’s Road to Riyadh: The Geopolitics of AI and Energy Infrastructure American Affairs Journal
PKK says withdrawing all forces from Turkey to northern Iraq Middle East Eye
Killing of Sunni candidate casts shadow over Iraqi elections Amwaj
Old Blighty
Share our nuclear weapons with Germany, say British military chiefs The Telegraph
European Disunion
China humiliated Germany: no one in China wants to meet with German politicians InfoDefense. There’s a strong case to be made that it’s Germany humiliating itself.
Germany is doing to itself what even its defeat in WWII couldn’t Tarik Cyril Amar
Flashy hardware, fragile strategy: is Poland, NATO’s biggest defence spender, preparing for the right war? Notes from Poland
Mac On The Civil War In Europe Mark Wauck https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/mac-on-the-civil-war-in-europe?
Hungary’s new energy plan quietly redefines Russia as a risk Daily News Hungary
EXCLUSIVE: EU mulls copying US with end to aid for global health funds Euractiv
New Not-So-Cold War
Russia Just Launched the World’s Longest Ranged Missile: Burevestnik Can Fly Around the World Thousands of Times Before Striking Military Watch Magazine
Trump may not follow through on Russian oil or Tomahawk Indian Punchline
Europe’s Plan B for Ukraine Politico. ‘EU countries may be called upon to raise tens of billions of euros in joint debt as part of a “Plan B” to keep Ukraine afloat after Belgium shot down plans to use Russia’s frozen assets as a financial lifeline for Kyiv, according to three EU diplomats.’
Lithuania closes border crossings with Belarus indefinitely after balloons violate airspace for 3rd night in row Kyiv Independent
South of the Border
Argentina investors poised for rally after Milei election win Buenos Aires Times
Venezuela Denounces US-Backed Military Drills by Trinidad and Tobago as Hostile Provocation Orinoco Tribune
From Baghdad to Caracas: A Washington Manual on Sanctions and War Z Network
A lithium bust leaves Latin American towns in the dust Rest of World
Spook Country
How Secret Agents Work to Hijack U.S. Foreign Policy SpyTalk
Trump 2.0
The risks of letting Trump become the military paymaster Can We Still Govern?
Federal food aid will not go out starting Nov. 1 amid government shutdown, Trump administration says CBS News
The Conservatives Who Think Trump Isn’t Going Far Enough Boston Review
Trump says he won’t run for vice-president in 2028 US election Straits Times
Immigration
SCOOP: ICE List Shares Evidence With Letitia James Migrant Insider
Democrats en déshabillé
California Gov. Gavin Newsom says he’d be ‘lying’ if he denied plans to consider a presidential run NBC News
Mamdani
I know you meant this to be racist against Mamdani but this mostly reads like “vote cuomo or else we’ll do another 9/11.” https://t.co/EVzSxHVLiy
— Matt Lieb?? (@mattlieb) October 25, 2025
Wars Come Home
How To Kill Subversives and Get Away With It New Lines Mag
Police State Watch
Feds detain Laugh Factory night manager, deploy tear gas in nearby neighborhood The TRiiBE
Imperial Collapse Watch
Golden Fleet: US eyes new generation of warships to restore dominance at sea Interesting Engineering
Accelerationists
What the Fascist Tech Bros Get Wrong About Prometheus Lit Hub
Groves of Academe
Higher Ed’s Rush To Adopt AI Is About So Much More Than AI Defector
Educated Slaves in Ancient Rome History Today
Healthcare?
Monopoly Round-Up: Obamacare Is Cooked. What’s Next? BIG by Matt Stoller
PNHP’s New Report on Medicare Advantage’s Equity Illusion HEALTH CARE un-covered
Against Equity: An Old-Fashioned Defence Of Equality 3 Quarks Daily
Our Famously Free Press
As Millions March Against Fascism, NYT Warns Against Progressives FAIR
The White House shared this Washington Post oped written by an Abu Shabab gang member from multiple accounts.
Post then replied with a gift link. The oped was pitched by a pro-Israel PR firm. Israel backed these gangs.
The rot is so deep https://t.co/YFrubVUVY2
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 25, 2025
Sports Desk
Make Sports Sacred Again UnHerd
The Friendly Skies
More than 8,000 US flights delayed as air traffic control absences persist Channel News Asia
AI
Class Warfare
The merits of unified ownership Works in Progress
Antidote du jour (via):
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
“Navy helicopter, jet crash in South China Sea in separate incidents”
What can you say. Military aviation can be a dangerous occupation, even in peacetime, and an accident can kill you just as much as enemy fire. Fortunately, the crew of that chopper as well as that F-18 were quickly picked up. You can always replace a helicopter or an aircraft but you can never replace an individual – or five as in this case.
But in wartime you have to replace the individuals which is why Russia has the simple weapons so the second wave with less training can fill the lines. The US handles that problem by fielding fragile weapons so there are fewer available in the second wave to man.
GAO: Each F35 has a $150 million life cycle cost. Pentagon bought about 1,000. Only 3 in 10 are ‘mission capable’ at any one time ever since procurement began. Congress authorized purchase of 1,500 more. Fragile, expensive technological wonders are mostly metal paperweights on the day of battle.
I do not know where GAO got that $150 M life cycle cost per aircraft. I doubt they had someone like me to ask. I have been out of the “system” since 2019.
Since DoD/DoW has been keeping records the cost to operate a system for a life is roughly twice the cost to acquire it. In GAO estimate the F-35 costs 50 million. More like $100 million at the 2000th delivery.
That said the spec’s for F-35 had a life cycle cost for the system delivering 80% mission capability! The designs for the airplane and support systems were for 80% mission capability.
That all we get is 33% is a failure of the “system”. F-35 is not unique since the 1940’s, when blank checks went out from the pentagon.
Failed systems cannot be accurately “valued”. Therefore, DoD/DoW will never pass a financial audit.
Glad all aviators are safe and hopefully out of sick bay soon.
Make Sports Sacred Again UnHerd
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I didn’t see bupkis in regards to mainstream media reporting of the NBA gambling scandal, and its all because they rely so much upon the advertising revenue, online gambling tv commercials predominate during any sporting contest.
Was watching NFL yesterday and before one of the games, the 9 network talking heads all gave their picks for a 3-way parlay-brought to you by Draft Kings.
You wonder why all the pro leagues went along with it when online betting was first legalized on a state by state basis, maybe part of the reason was their fan base was so aged (half of MLB fans are over 55) and gambling was seen as a way to get young adults interested?
The antidote:
Welcome our kinder gentler ruling class.
Lewis Carroll said it best:
How doth the little crocodile
Improve his shining tail,
And pour the waters of the Nile
On every golden scale!
How cheerfully he seems to grin!
How neatly spread his claws,
And welcomes little fishes in
With gently smiling jaws!
Hear! Hear! Appreciate this on a Monday.
Thank you.
Now I know where “busy bee” comes from.
“Baby, Boom: How to Keep Israeli Kids Busy on Vacation? Take Them to a Minefield”
I have heard that it is going to take decades to de-mine Gaza as there is unexploded ordnance everywhere which I am sure that Hamas is putting to good use. They are going to need hundreds if not thousands of de-miners over those decades. Regardless, what if an unstated aim of this program was to get kids, when they grow up, to become de-miners themselves? They would already probably have their names as attending this program when kids. Does that sound too cynical?
Correct me please, but it appears as if Trump Admin. did manage to suppress the Epstein story.
A few months ago everybody was warning US populace would not forget this and demand investigation and clarification.
Or is it just taking a pause before a storm?
re: american colossus/promethean stupidity:
ive been studying the american right for long time. senior year, in “government” class, taught by a coach, who identified me as “so far left, he’s almost a commie”…i asked him, “if we actually enjoy freedom of speech, and therefore thought, am i not free to arrive at a communist outlook by my own path?”
he hmmed and hawed, and had to concede my point, then muttering about how the ussr/commies were out to get us, so we had to be unified.
i interjected,”all this talk abt ussr and jackboots and marching in lock step…isnt that what you’re advocating?”
then the bell rang, and i waited for the throng to exit, the rednecks and manly men eyeing me suspiciously as they left.
coach took me aside, said, “you need to watch what you say”…
i was 18….this was 1987.
and i was already being harassed by the hs admin, and the cops…all of which just got worse.
and here we are again…but worse.
and scrolling through the rhetoric on their site, if one squints, one can see me, in there…because i am tenacious in the face of adversity(adversity none of those wankers have ever known), and i have built things, in spite of disability and poverty….using inspiration and innovation and way outside the boxism.
but i dont fit their narrow vision of worth, of course…because i remain poor.
and i dont get bailouts when i screw things up.
i predict that this thing, if ever built, will be built with construction drones, and will lack the sort of forethought regarding things like structural integrity that would come with a mere whiff of regulatory requirements…and that sooner rather than later, the edifice will topple into the bay, and become a reef substrate.
these dudes think that they’re howard roark, but are short sighted and vain.
they will fall…but cause a lot more damage on their way down.
I have to admit upfront that my dad and I had been mostly estranged for a couple decades, but during the 2016 election we had a few brief periods of chatting, mostly via text. In one exchange he was upset with me for being a Bernie supporter and told me there was no way I could be a supporter of a socialist. I retorted that I was Left of Bernie. That was the end of those chats for quite some time.
“New DNA Evidence Reveals What Really Killed Napoleon’s Grand Army in 1812”
An interesting theory but it relies on evidence from bodies recovered from only one grave in Lithuania that was discovered only a few years ago. You would need more such evidence from other graves from different regions to show that this was happening everywhere or if it only happened in that part of Lithuania. Napoleon wasted massive amounts of men and he would have sorely needed them only three years later at Waterloo. With them he would have won. There is a famous map showing the amount of attrition that Napoleon suffered-
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e2/Minard_Update.png
The red, from left to right, is his invasion force as it proceeds into Russia. The black, starting from Moscow, shows his forces constantly shrinking as he fights his way out of Russia and really tells the story.
> Currently there’s very little sign of that and if anything it’s likely we’re going to see temperatures rise again.
Red flag. Unless they mean ‘temperatures rise again by next summer.’ Arctic air temps did push record mid-October, but dropped to recent norms. Which are still very high.
Their response in comments to an objection about ‘rise again’ used an anomaly chart. That’s a rhetorical misrepresentation.
For solid and important work, look at the Eos ‘New Satellite Data’ link. CERES lets us tune into energy flux as master variable, from a globally consistent data set.
Sports Desk entry….yeah that ship has truly sailed and circumnavigation of the world’s oceans is continuing to lap the fullness of the earth. The only thing sacred that might remain is the regional interest and natural rivalries. Thinking here obviously, for myself, college sports rivalry that features a dividing line or border, and in certain states a mere 15 miles or 30 miles of separation in mileage. I doubt the sports betting conundrum is getting resolved overnight.
That ship began sailing by the way, on yet a new seabound itinerary, once college football and college basketball head coaches became one of if not the highest compensated positions on a public payroll. Tough times in the state budget, or recession? Coaching for wins and eyeballs is what matters.
Added…take a check how college football coaches this season are being fired. Each week a new top level program is wiping the slate clean..Penn State, Florida and now it’s LSU.
I do appreciate Brian Berletic calling BS on stuff. Sure, he takes away hope and that’s sucks but still it is more important to get through to the real state of affairs.
Indeed. Expected he would be right long. They’ve previously had papers about different approaches in conflict. Point being, see that info and know that conflict continued and escalated.
“Hungary’s new energy plan quietly redefines Russia as a risk”
Well, them and Ukrainian sabotage teams blowing up their oil infrastructure and the EU giving them cover while they demand Hungary stop receiving any Russian oil which would push them into a severe recession. Add to the mix Trump throwing Hungary under the bus by cancelling that summit and lining up with those countries that last year backed Kamala and criticized Trump heavily.
“Because of the country’s regional role in oil product distribution, managing the risks stemming from import dependence and diversifying oil supply – thereby reducing exposure to the dominant supplier, currently the Russian partner – is not only in Hungary’s interest, but in the region’s as well.”
– isn’t this just common sense, to diversify supply? It is not a threat to Russia.
Such a sentence could easily appear in an EU energy strategy paper
– no it couldn’t, because the EU let the US blow up NordStream in an effort to either concentrate or halt energy supply. As far as I understand, the EU is doing everything it can to undiversify its supply of energy.
Russian energy would remain – but as a risk
– no, energy would remain as energy. Energy takes different forms of energy but never the form of risk. I vaguely remember a dude called Newton and some fundamental principles of the universe and energy and thermodynamics.
While the European Union is preparing to phase out all Russian oil and gas imports by 2028, the Hungarian ministry’s draft proposes a more gradual timeline. By 2030, the goal is to reduce Hungary’s import dependence to 80 per cent for natural gas and 85 per cent for oil – not a full withdrawal, but a partial and progressive decoupling.
– hmmm, yes, getting 80-85% of your energy is not a full withdrawal. If a withdrawal at all.
Who writes these embarrassing pieces?
Is there any organization to which facts can turn for safety and treatment after having being abused?
“…re-imagine its surface fleet around larger, longer-range, missile-heavy ships…”
Brilliant. We know in all but experience (yet) that the most lethal hypersonic missiles can take out an aircraft carrier. So lets make our people floating targets even bigger… ummm… easier to hit.
There’s zero self awareness among US elites.
I see a lot of consternation over Mamdani becoming the socialist mayor of the world capital of capitalism. But I don’t see them ask why the people would even want Mamdani.
It’s an extremely expensive city, it’s dirty, high crime, why wouldn’t the people say no to establishment candidate Andrew Cuomo?
Re: Real Estate Is Entering Its AI Slop Era :
Realtors in NYC have been doctoring listing photos for many years (sometimes just adding a little fire in the fireplace, sometimes fully wiping out the current owner’s decor) and as the tools have improved, the photos have steadily moved farther and farther from the reality of the actual property. I’m seeing the tools used to hide or minimize architectural problems, show modern faux wood floors rather than the actual wood parquet that’s there (typical in ’50s-’70s era buildings, and of varying quality but often better than the junk printed strip floors being put down now), and creating views where none exist. Exceedingly few brokers will show the ‘before’ and ‘after’ versions, or note that the photo has been altered. As a potential buyer, it increases the amount of time I have to spend chasing around town actually looking at properties that I might otherwise have skipped, or missing properties that I would actually like, except that the broker obliterated features because they thought they were less marketable. I suppose playing with the AI tools is more fun and easier than actually finding potential buyers and selling them on the pros and cons of reality.