Links 10/4/2025

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A Library for Fish Sounds Nautilus. Micael T: “Geopolitical commentary: A vivid new telling of the herring farts / Soviet sub history

What if the Universe Remembers Everything? New Theory Rewrites the Rules of Physics SciTech Daily (Chuck L)

Scientists just cracked the mystery of why cancer immunotherapy fails ScienceDaily (Kevin W)

Climate/Environment

Antarctic sea ice winter peak in 2025 is third smallest on record Carbon Brief

Sudan Warns of Severe River Nile Flooding News Central TV

Crowded camps, stagnant water and not enough doctors: first the floods, now disease stalks millions in Pakistan Guardian

Over the past year, Australia’s oceans have been hotter than ever before. ABC Australia

The UK is “shockingly underprepared” for changing weather patterns caused by climate change, nature trusts have said BBC

”Shocked, not surprised”: Northeast Atlantic mackerel at historic low Magazine

The crisis along the Colorado River is coming to a head as seven state negotiators fail to deliver an agreement on how to manage it over the next 20 years Las Vegas Review Journal

‘It’s all dead now… nothing will grow’: Fish and hippos dissolve in polluted acid river Telegraph

China?

This sea route has been dismissed as too treacherous. China’s taking the risk CNN

Myanmar

Myanmar’s military says it has recaptured a key central town from ethnic rebels Independent

India

Rupee Inches Toward Record Low As Dollar Pressure Persists Finimize

Africa

Sudan’s War Is the Shape of Things to Come Foreign Affairs

Rebuilding Khartoum Will Cost Billions That Sudan Doesn’t Have Bloomberg

Morocco protest leaders demand government dismissal after deadly unrest France24

South of the Border

Donald Trump has declared the US is at war Council Estate Media (resilc)

Venezuela slams presence of US F-35 fighter planes spotted off coast Aljazeera

O Canada

Canada’s debt time bomb Canadian Dimension

European Disunion

Euro zone manufacturing returned to contraction in September, PMI shows Reuters

Torture weapons are being used on Europe’s streets to put down protests EUObserver

UN human rights expert slams EU chemical deregulation push Politico

Fresh strikes held in France amid continuing political void Guardian

Old Blighty

New MI6 Chief’s Dark History Revealed Simplicius. You heard this here from our Colonel Smithers first!

The UK Needs to Break Out of Its Debt Doom Loop Bloomberg. Editorial.

Israel v The Resistance

BREAKING: Hamas Responds to Trump Gaza Plan Drop Site, YouTube

Hamas agrees to release Israeli captives but rejects foreign governorship of Gaza Middle East Eye. I am at a loss to understand the somewhat hopeful commentary from DropSite. Trump’s earlier position was that this was a take it or nothing deal. That is surely Netanyahus’s. Rejection of any part = justification for Israel to continue the genocide. Admittedly the Drop Site talk makes key points, like Hamas is not empowered to commit to governorship changes even if it wanted to.

Hamas agrees to parts of Trump’s Gaza plan, seeks more talks, bombing eases Aljazeera

What remains of Gaza? Financial Times

Netanyahu’s Government Poses a Greater Danger to Jews Than Any External Enemy Jurist (resilc)

USC sold dead bodies to U.S. military to train IDF medical personnel USC Annenberg Media (resilc)

Russia’s Support For Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Isn’t Surprising Andrew Korybko

From a few days ago. Varoufakis is connected:

Iran’s central bank plans major currency intervention as rial tanks Intellinews

New Not-So-Cold War

French troops arrest captain of Russian ‘shadow fleet’ oil tanker feared to be behind Denmark drone incursions Independent

Syraqistan

Why has Pakistan-administered Kashmir erupted in protest again? Aljazeera

Three killed in Christian area of Syria amid sectarian tension, election controversy New Arab

Trump 2.0

Most Voters Think America’s Divisions Cannot Be Overcome, Poll Says New York Times (resilc)

US Treasury unveils draft design of coin with Trump’s profile RT (Kevin W)

President Trump promotes a fake cure-all bed YouTube (resilc)

Immigration

Tariffs

Investors could face a bonfire night surprise on Trump tariffs Gillian Tett, Financial Times. Important. See risk of capital controls. However, Trump so far is complying with the limits of his other trade authorities in implementing or threatening to (Section 232)

Wall Street wins big, making high-interest rate loans to cover Trump tariffs Kevin Walmsley (Kevin W)

US farmers hit by trade war to get ‘substantial’ aid: Treasury chief France24

Home Builders, and Homeowners, Brace for Impact of Kitchen Tariffs New York Times (resilc)

Major combine manufacturer moves production from U.S. to Europe amid trade uncertainty YouTube

Shutdown

Government shutdown could cost US economy billions of dollars a week, analysts say Guardian

Mamdani

New York’s Mass Flight From Reality Tablet. Robin K: “A Jewish take on the prospect of Mamdani becoming NYC’s Mayor. Last week. Still pertinent. Moi: New Yorkers want to own cars? Really? Young people haven’t wanted to own cars for over a decade.

Our No Longer Free Press

Americans’ trust in media hits an all-time low, with Republican confidence now in single digits Independent

TikTok investor: ‘Embed the love and respect for Israel’ in the US Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

Charlie Kirk

Mr. Market is Moody

Dollar Doubts Are Showing Up in the Corporate Bond Market Bloomberg

America’s private credit binge echoes China’s shadow banking Nikkei

Yuan lies in wait as Trump pushes buck to the brink Asia Times (Kevin W)

Economy

America’s looming electricity crisis is Trump’s Achilles’ heel Telegraph

US banks expect victory in capital requirements as Trump regulators revamp rules Reuters

In-Game Sports Betting Is Growing. So Are the Concerns New York Times. resilc: “Why Vegas is DOA too.”

AI

AI Data Centers Are Sending Power Bills Soaring Bloomberg

‘My son genuinely believed it was real’: Parents are letting little kids play with AI. Are they wrong? Guardian (Kevin W). These parents should have their kids put in foster care.

Tech Bro 2.0: The new Silicon Valley archetype dominating the AI age SF Standard (resilc)

Is The AI Bubble Ready To Pop? Moon of Alabama (Kevin W) . We get a shout out.

Is European AI A Lost Cause? Not Necessarily. Nomea. Micael T: “Funny at so many levels. Why must Europe invest in an unprofitable and useless technology? Europe have become vassals and can’t think in sovereignity terms. Europe is no promotor of freedom. Etcetc.”

Class Warfare

Gig Drivers Win the Right to Unionize in California New York Times (resilc)

Antidote du jour (retaj):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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24 comments

  1. Rolf

    From Council Estate Media’s substack,

    [Trump:] “If you try to poison our people, we will blow you out of existence, ‘cause that’s the only language they really understand. That’s why you don’t see any more boats on the ocean. You don’t see any boats around Venezuela, there’s nothing.”

    What Trump is talking about here is fishing boats. He has terrorised fishermen into no longer pursuing their livelihood. He has spread hunger and fear by illegally blowing up vessels belonging to another country. That’s not just an act of war, it’s an act of terrorism.

    Trump is a terrorist.

    This is honestly the only way to now describe Trump and the government he controls: a terrorist leading a terrorist state.

    Reply
    1. Wukchumni

      Nobody in the fatherland claimed to be a Good German during the war, only afterwards.

      I can’t even claim I was only following orders, being as complicit as the next person who sat idly at the most important turning point in our lives-as crushing blows one after another laid low our democracy-aided and abetted by the standing 9 count, er Supreme Court.

      Reply
  2. The Rev Kev

    “Donald Trump has declared the US is at war”

    Jeez, after playing around in the sandbox for the past twenty years or more, it looks like the US military gets to go play in the jungle again. It should be fun. More bugs but less sand. If Trump decides to occupy Venezuela’s oil fields like he did in Syria, what makes him think that the Venezuelans won’t just sabotage those plants so that the US gets no benefit from them? And what if the people there start an active resistance like happened in Iraq after the US had finished invading that country. Is Trump ready to be dealing with his own “Vietnam” for the next three years of his Presidency? And I bet that a lot of South American countries will be sending Venezuela military aid on the side as they know that they can be next.

    Reply
  3. AG

    re: New MI6 Chief’s Dark History Revealed Simplicius.

    “(…)
    Maria Zakharova had even recently suggested that people with Nazi ancestors were deliberately being put into positions of power, giving several examples:

    “The trend is clearly neo-Nazi: (German Chancellor) Friedrich Merz, (former German Foreign Minister) Annalena Baerbock, (Member of the House of Commons of Canada) Chrystia Freeland, (former President of Georgia) Salome Zurabishvili. Now we can add the head of MI6, Blaise Metreveli,” she emphasized.

    According to Zakharova, someone is “purposefully and consciously” placing Nazi descendants in leadership positions in Western countries.
    (…)”

    Of course to make a secretly planned “Nazi trend” out of coincidences is rather nonsensical.
    Russophobia in FRG is so rabid it concerns almost all backgrounds.
    Whether Iran-emigrés in THE GREEN party, old CDU guard whose parents were potentially in the resistance, eager lawyers with the SPD who are Eastern European immigrants or old queer artists voting for Turks in the THE LEFT warning of Russia.
    On the other hand many now dead Germans who helped create genuinely the old German-Russian cooperation were somehow affiliated with party structure in the 3rd Reich as young students eg.
    Certainly from a Russian POV provenance turns into providence. But that´s just that.
    Weren´t this heritage not the case nothing would change about the facts on the ground.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      I had forgotten her background but when I saw her image, her hairstyle immediately reminded me of those tradition hairstyles that nationalistic Ukrainian men wear. But come on everyone – is this the face of a crazy woman? Hmm, bad example.

      It certainly is noteworthy the number of people in countries achieving power whose grandparents followed the mustache man – some more than others. I can only imagine how it looks to Russians who lost tens of millions of people fighting them down only to see their grandchildren take power with some of the ideals of their grandparents. It would be like a ghost from the past arising again.

      Reply
  4. Wukchumni

    US Treasury unveils draft design of coin with Trump’s profile RT
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    There has only been 1 live American @ the time on a coin, with some weird precedence, in that it was Calvin Coolidge on the 1926 Sesquicentennial commemorative coin, so D.T. Barnum being on the 2026 Semiquincentennial almost makes sense.

    Now, to give you an idea of who has been on American coins, P.T. Barnum was on the 1936 Bridgeport coin, so there is precedence there too.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Sesquicentennial_coinage

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridgeport,_Connecticut,_Centennial_half_dollar

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Frankly the original article is wild. Next year the US is going to be 250 years old which is the same as saying a quarter of a thousand years old. You would think that there would be all sort of celebrations planned but this coin indicates that he wants to make that event all about himself. Look at the specs-

      ‘According to the first design draft revealed on Friday, the coin features Trump’s profile on one side, along with the words “Liberty” and “In God we trust,” and the dates 1776–2026.

      The other side shows Trump raising a clenched fist against a backdrop of the US flag, with the inscriptions “Fight, fight, fight,” “United States of America,” and “E pluribus unum.”’

      With his mug on both sides, it has very little to do with America’s Semiquincentennial but is all about him. Next year’s celebrations are going to be a joke and will make America look like a laughing stock if Trump has his way.

      Reply
      1. griffen

        Since it’s October and all manner of nightmare or terror films will be running throughout the month…why not the clown from IT? Pennywise on a US coin could be something unique and valuable by the year 3000.

        Your coins will all float ….you’ll all float! \sarc

        Reply
  5. The Rev Kev

    “French troops arrest captain of Russian ‘shadow fleet’ oil tanker feared to be behind Denmark drone incursions”

    Last I heard, that ship was continuing its voyage but do not know about the skipper or the first mate. Of course this is not to be confused with hostage taking – like Macron did with the Russian-born owner of Telegram. There is a – unconfirmed – story that when the French pirated that ship, that the Russians dropped a missile on a place outside Odessa where some 20 French mechanics were working modifying boats being delivered to the Ukraine from Romania. But if Macron keeps this up, certainly the Russians will respond. Perhaps those tankers will suddenly have a squad of Russian marines aboard for the purpose of fending off “pirates” on the high seas and armed with manpads to stop people getting any funny ideas. I think that Macron stated that the idea was to halt and delay Russian oil tankers to disrupt their schedules and to make them uneconomical to use. But does he really want to go there?

    Reply
    1. JohnA

      Macron has also made a big show of the death of a French photojournalist embedded with Ukrainian forces on the front line. Nasty Russians and all that.

      Reply
  6. griffen

    It’s the dopamine wheel for all your little gambling hamsters, the growing influence of available sports betting and live action bets. I can’t watch 10 minutes on ESPN without a direct reference to how to position one’s intended betting or a news scroll that features game schedules with the prevailing odds attached ….Keep the machines on !!

    I checked a few weeks ago as US football got cranked up, and South Carolina is still in that list of 11 states where the action is not yet legal.

    Reply
    1. Wukchumni

      Being in action was really my downfall when it came to 52 card pick up games. I could sit at a blackjack table for a mighty long time, and the cards did sway back and forth-you could almost feel it when all of the sudden you win 9 out of 11 hands, that sort of thing. Of course it goes the other way when you lose 9 out of 11 hands, chasing losses all the way.

      The thing was, I had to drive 250 miles to & fro, to be able to torture myself in such a fashion, and now from the privacy of your phone, you can get 4-1 odds on the batter currently up at the plate hitting into a double play.

      Even though they make shitgobs of money, are pro athletes any less susceptible to the lucky charms of gambling?

      Reply
  7. Louis Fyne

    >>>U.S. military planners believe that forces being assembled in Puerto Rico and the Southern Caribbean are now sufficient enough to launch “territorial-seizure operations”

    wish OpenSIGINT bros would attach citations. Wonder what article he cited.

    Anyone remember Grenada? by then and today’s standards, that was a *huge* operation—with an (arguably) embarassing level of US casualties/deaths given the absolute weakness of the opponent.

    granted this time around, there aren’t a flock of civilians to secure, but still…securing one offshore Ven. airfield = essentially another Grenada.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      It’s reminding me more of the time that Reagan put a force of Marines into Beirut International Airport but with no follow up forces back in ’83. When a suicide truck bomber hit them over 240 US troops were lost. Reagan was smart enough to pull the rest of that force out but I think that a Trump would double down because of his wounded pride.

      Reply
  8. LawnDart

    Re; Trump 2.0

    YOU ARE INVITED TO THE MAGA BALLROOM 2028

    My latest AI experiment has gone viral reaching millions in less than 24 hours.

    The inspiration was the announcement by the White House of a new $200 million ballroom with renders that looked a lot like Versailles. Having just visited the palace on vacation and being somewhat disgusted with the level of opulence on display, I had the insight that this new ballroom could become a future museum like Versailles to show what happened in this era.

    I didn’t have a script but made it as I went and felt the karmic action and reaction would work well visually. More insights and powerful images came as I worked on it.

    I made the stills using Freepik and Sora. Used primarily Kling AI for video and sfx, last shot was with Veo 3. More sound design from ElevenLabs and the music is synced to Masquerade (Suite): 1. Waltz Khachaturian, London symphony orchestra.

    https://youtu.be/nD_25aSMSFc?si=gl44EtYrxECVKU7k

    Are some AI more equal than others?

    Reply
    1. mrsyk

      Interesting query. I’ll argue the end product has cultural value. Nevertheless, a person with skills at digital animation could have put that together ex-AI.

      Reply
  9. KLG

    Betting anecdata: Late-20-something son of a good friend took in one of his friends when said friend’s life collapsed. The young man in distress could live in the spare bedroom indefinitely (within reason) for $1000. Turns out his online gambling debts prevent him from being able to pay, which is why the girlfriend put him on skates. Multiply by a million and you have a good idea of the pervasiveness of this ongoing catastrophe. I don’t watch nearly as much televised sports as I have in the past. The incessant DraftKings, FanDuel, and other ads (Bet $5 and get a $200 credit!) on all sports, golf included, make me much less likely to continue watching even at this low level.

    According to a young friend, it is much safer to use a conventional independent bookie. The bookie will cut you off at the first sign of financial distress…We are a very sick society. But this is common knowledge to anyone paying attention.

    Just saw that griffen beat me to this!

    Reply
    1. Wukchumni

      We are fast creating a wasted generation of young men (women play a much smaller role typically in gambling outlays) many of which are to the point of robbing Paul to play Peter’s parlay, or at best are flat broke, with gambling opportunities a plenty out there like so many sugarplum dumplings.

      I wish them luck transitioning from slitting their risks in such endeavors, and a problem gambler typically looks like anybody else-no telltale signs of outward distress.

      Legalized casino gambling only shows up in 1931, I could see gambling banned in all forms by 2031.

      Reply
  10. The Rev Kev

    “A vivid new telling of the herring farts / Soviet sub history”

    Maybe the Russians could mess with the Swedes by dropping buoys that broadcast human farting sounds from time to time.

    Reply

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