Tom Neuburger: Is the Trump Administration Out to Trigger Civil War Soon?

This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1201 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page, which shows how to give via check, credit card, debit card, PayPal, Clover, or Wise. Read about why we’re doing this fundraiser, what we’ve accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, Karōshi prevention.

Yves here. I do not want to sound uncharacteristically Pollyannaish. The Trump Administration is full of ideologues who are very much out of touch with what is happening in America, particularly among the many communities that voted for Trump and now feel betrayed, such as farmers, small businessmen now whacked by tariffs and supply chain problems, vets worried about whether their ability to get care (I know one personally who is freaked out about possible tariff impacts on the supply of drugs essential to him). Sy Hersh has just reported that Trump’s cognitive decline has reached the level where he can no longer read the room, and that may apply to his team generally. The damage to the economy from tariffs (as in inflationary effects) is only starting to take hold now. Growth is concentrated in AI and is flagging in the rest of the economy. Most important, Trump’s base is fracturing over his continued support for Israel, the widespread belief that Israel’s fingerprints are on the Charlie Kirk murder, as well as unhappiness over the Epstein cover-up.

Another general issue is that the Trump team is good at breaking things (witness DOGE) but not at actual operations (witness the “obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear program and its denialism about our ability to supply Ukraine). And another key part of the denialism picture is the way the Hegseth/Trump performances in front of the generals and flag officers they summoned to Quantico backfired. John Helmer described how the Russian press saw the exercise as troublingly similar to when Hitler demanded that his military swear a loyalty oath. The many detailed, negative reactions from military-aligned YouTube channels (and not the usual suspects that I follow) suggests that Trump would find it hard to get a sufficient number of service members who would be willing to go into cities and fire on civilians if told to do so.

Another factor that works against Trump now is the lack of trust in orthodox media. Any anomalies give rise to a lack of consensus often derided as conspiracy theory. That could also impede an effort to rally citizens against “the enemy within” as Hegseth tried to do. Look at how anti-immigration policies polled at ~60% before the election. ICE raids and deportations have resulted in the current majority disapproval.

However, this team, if nothing else, is possessed by hubris. So they could well try a much bigger power grab backed by force. Even if it fails, the damage could still be vast in human and institutional terms.

By Tom Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies

I want to consider this quote from The Onion’s Ben Collins:

Pretty clear Stephen Miller, [Kristi] Noem, [Pete] Hegseth and Trump are trying to provoke a Civil War at this point. What’s interesting is they want to do it now, because even though they’re unpopular, they seem to believe this is the most popular they’ll be ever again.

Is it true? It’s certain that Miller, at least, wants a war. Unless Carl Biejer is right, Miller’s language shows that. For example (emphasis mine):

[This is] Legal insurrection. The President is the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, not an Oregon judge. Portland and Oregon law enforcement, at the direction of local leaders, have refused to aid ICE officers facing relentless terrorist assault and threats to life. (There are more local law enforcement officers in Oregon than there are guns and badges in the FBI nationwide). This is an organized terrorist attack on the federal government and its officers, and the deployment of troops is an absolute necessity to defend our personnel, our laws, our government, public order and the Republic itself.

“Legal insurrection … an organized terrorist attack on the federal government”. There are laws against that. Another example, Miller to Hannity:

The Democrat party … is an entity devoted exclusively to the defense of hardened criminals, gangbangers, and illegal alien killers and terrorists. The Democrat party is not a political party. It is a domestic, extremist organization.

Noem and Hegseth agree (see here and here) and seem to be willing, as commanders of government forces, to fight by his side. Trump also agrees:

[T]hey’re throwing bricks at full force into the window and into the car. It looks like it’s a war zone. And I said, never let that happen again. From now on if that ever happens, and I say it here, you get out of that car and you can do whatever the hell you want to do …

Last month, I signed an executive order to provide training for a quick reaction force that can help quell civil disturbances. This is going to be a big thing for the people in this room [the Pentagon’s generals] because it’s the enemy from within and we have to handle it before it gets out of control.

Trump says he wants to use U.S. cities as “training grounds for our military National Guard.” The context, superficially, is the “immigration invasion,” but ending the imagined “far left,” the permanent enemy and proxy for all opposition, is really the goal.

So the war seems to be starting. We have rhetoric, boots on the ground, and like our pre-War South (or the Israeli government), there seems no provocation they won’t escalate from. Lincoln said of the South, their purpose is “rule or ruin.” Is that true today of Miller and people like him? Would Trump go along? Perhaps; he has so far.

Why Do It Now?

Let’s go back to Ben Collins above (emphasis mine): “they want to do it now, because even though they’re unpopular, they seem to believe this is the most popular they’ll be ever again”.

I think that’s wrong. A more correct statement would be “because this is the most power they’ve ever had before.”

The American Hard Right has never, ever been stronger. The feast is before them, all laid. They have the presidency. They have Trump, a master intimidator, and so they have Congress (look up “men fit to be slaves”). They have Roberts and most of his Court. They have power of the purse at last, and crime without price. They act like kings. They have a timid pretend opposition, so tied to their money and privilege they’re afraid to offend (by which I mean piss off their donors).

And the people, the last obstacle? They’re outraged, true, but they don’t rush to the streets in a way that disrupts the state. Shades of our non-reaction to Bush v. Gore — if we let it occur, we own it.

Revolt in Lebanon

Consider Lebanon. In 2019 the people rose up against new taxes, but the revolt morphed quickly to protest against everything — corruption, greed, self-dealing immunity, a sealed-off ruling class — the whole ugly pie. Their rally cry captured that. كلن يعني كلن — “all means all.” Every one of them goes.

The revolution partly succeeded. It certainly put elites on their heels (“all means all”) and caused many good changes. (Revolutions can’t fully succeed. Failure is built in, thanks to the nature of the state. The only real revolt is statelessness, but that’s a topic for later.)

Revolt in the U.S.

In contrast, the U.S. is different. People see masked police, thugs on the streets, and what? Strong letters, silence or protests, and then life goes on. (“The game just started. Come watch.”) Words and no deeds that matter, a repeat of the 2000 theft — sadly compliant, or worse, just apathetic.

This is not to excoriate. It’s to describe. I’m pointing out Trump’s position — he has all the power. No one stands up with force that prevents; the battlefield’s his. In the minds of the Millers of the world — and there are many — the time to strike may be now, when their side is most strong.

Do or Do Not?

This could fizzle, of course. The courts might stop the incursions; the mayors could win; the war against protest may not metastasize past Israel and immigrants. Trump could back down. If he does, that’s a victory of sorts, though we’ll never really go back. Like after 9/11, the nation’s been changed.

But what if the forces of right-wing revolt want more? What if they want it all, now that “all” seems available, and now that the Palantir-9/11 security state seems built just for this? After all, Palantir’s Thiel and others like him are clearly no fans of democracy, not by a lot. The state won’t stand with rebellion against the state.

So how would people like Miller win final victory? They have their own army — ICE — deployed in the cities. So far the targets — those they attack and arrest — are mostly immigrant-appearing, plus random objectors. The war needs to be spread.

Enter “antifa” and NSPM-7, Trump’s security declaration that outlaws (he says) “anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Christianity; support for the overthrow of the United States Government; extremism on migration, race, and gender; and hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on family, religion, and morality.” That’s a hell of an enemies list; it’s most non-voters, Democrats, and many of his own.

What’s needed next? A spark. Will it come because they attack, or because they’re attacked? Or will something “unusual” happen? Whichever, they need escalation. Not now perhaps, but not too long from now. The time for Bush-Cheney, if they wanted, to declare martial law was early, when passions were high and no one was firmly grounded. They went to Iraq instead.

We’re not firmly grounded now and there’s no next Iraq. That war is here, not abroad. Will they launch it? That’s up to them.