Yves here. As most of you know, Trump has often and shamelessly tried selling the bogosity that Thanksgiving meal cost have fallen, which he used to imply that inflation generally is declining. Trump has repeatedly cited Walmart finding a way to lower the price of its Thanksgiving package, which it turns out was the result of degrading the quality of the items included. So please circulate the piece below to help bolster the case of those with checkout receipts that say the reverse.
By Stephen Prager, staff writer at Common Dreams. Originally published at Common Dreams
As President Donald Trump attempts to claim the mantle of “affordability” and boasts that grocery prices are “way down,” a new report tracking the price of several Thanksgiving staples showed they have increased by 10% over the last year, more than three times the rate of inflation.
On social media, the president recently trumpeted that “2025 Thanksgiving dinner under Trump is 25% lower than 2024 Thanksgiving dinner under [President Joe] Biden, according to Walmart.” Claiming that grocery prices are down this year, he added: “AFFORDABILITY is a Republican Stronghold. Hopefully, Republicans will use this irrefutable fact!”
Trump was technically correct that Walmart had reduced the cost of its Thanksgiving dinner by about 25%. What he neglected to mention, however, was that it had also considerably reduced the meal’s size, down from 29 individual items to 22.
The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published in September by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, shows that at-home grocery prices have actually risen by 2.7%. That, not the spin coming from the White House, is what voters appear to be absorbing as Thanksgiving approaches.
In a poll conducted last week by Data for Progress, 53% said they felt it would be harder to afford a typical Thanksgiving meal than last year, while just 13% said it would be easier. Meanwhile, over a third said they were compensating for rising costs by buying fewer items.
That survey was done in collaboration with the Groundwork Collaborative, the Century Foundation, and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), which published a report on Friday showing the skyrocketing cost of several holiday staples over the past year, in large part due to Trump’s aggressive tariff regime.
Graphic by the Century Foundation, Groundwork Collaborative, and American Federation of Teachers
While the cost of a 15-lb. frozen turkey has remained roughly steady, the report notes that this is a bit of a mirage.
“Typically, retailers use frozen turkeys as a loss leader, discounting them to get customers in the door to purchase the rest of their Thanksgiving meal, so it’s no surprise that frozen turkey prices are steady,” it explains. “However, wholesale prices for frozen turkeys have soared 75% over the past year, according to research from Purdue University, and fresh turkey prices are up 36% and likely to continue rising.”
The report attributes these sharp increases to a perfect storm of Trump policies. Tariffs have driven up the cost of feed and avian flu,“ which has worsened as a result of mass firings at the US Department of Agriculture, ”has further thinned an already shrinking flock, now at its lowest level in four decades, squeezing American farmers and consumers alike.“
Those who prefer pork or beef to turkey will not be so lucky: The price of an 8-lb. smoked bone-in spiral ham has jumped from $7.69 last year up to $11.48, a nearly 50% increase, while beef roasts are up 20%.
But many agree that the sides are what truly make a Thanksgiving meal great, and that’s where Americans’ pocketbooks will take the most significant hits.
The cost of sweet onions, an essential ingredient in stuffing, has spiked by 56% since last year. Ocean Spray jellied cranberry sauce and Seneca Foods’ creamed corn have each jumped by over 20%. And elbow macaroni from De Cecco and the Sargento cheese to put on top have each increased by double digits.
Pie fillings like pecans, apples, and the refrigerated crusts they’re served in have also all lept several times the rate of inflation. And even storing leftovers will be more costly, with heavy-duty aluminum foil from Reynolds up 40%.
The report chalks this up to Trump’s 50% tariffs on imported steel, which affect around 4 in 5 canned goods. Canned fruits and vegetables have increased by 5% over the past year, faster than the overall rate of inflation. These price hikes, meanwhile, have given companies cover to raise the prices of goods made with domestic steel, too.
Making Thanksgiving dinner with fresh fruit and vegetables may skirt some of the hikes, but tariffs on fertilizer and herbicides have also driven prices up by about 2.5%.
Tariffs on aluminum, meanwhile, have caused Reynolds’ CEO to increase the prices not just of foil, but also of other products to help absorb the cost.
The report by Groundwork, the Century Foundation, and AFT is not the only one to examine the cost of Thanksgiving foods, which are often used as a shorthand for the state of inflation.
While estimates vary based on methodology—for instance, the American Farm Bureau notes that the loss leader pricing of turkey is enough to reduce the price of a Thanksgiving meal on the whole from last year—reports across the board have found that the prices for most Thanksgiving staples are rising in tandem with food prices more broadly.
“This Thanksgiving, the main course is inflation as Trump’s policies force families to carve up their shrinking budgets,” said Lindsay Owens, Groundwork’s executive director.
Rising food prices are just the tip of the iceberg for a mounting affordability crisis: Data shows similar hikes to housing and energy costs. Meanwhile, the cost of health insurance premiums is expected to more than double next year for over 20 million Americans and increase across the board after Republicans voted not to renew a tax credit for the Affordable Care Act.
“This administration’s policies made the cost of living higher than the year before,” said AFT president Randi Weingarten. “We must do everything we can to make it easier, not harder, for working Americans to afford groceries, housing, and healthcare.”
Not that I am criticising the main thrust of how inflationary the price of food has become, and the notorious trick of ‘shrinkflation’ to disguise this, but why is pretty much every item on the above list either frozen, canned or otherwise jellied or ‘shelf-stable, ready shredded or boxed? Much processed or ultra processed, no doubt.
As thanksgiving is a holiday period, surely there is time on the day to prepared vegetables and other sides from fresh? Peeling and chopping veg and grating a block of cheese will be much cheaper.
Asking as a European. Almost nothing on the list appeals to me, even though most of the ingredients, if prepared from scratch can be delicious.
Because the prices of fresh items will vary much more by region of the US. And money and/or time stressed cooks are more likely to use short cuts, as in prepared or partially prepared or advanced-purchase foods, rather than cook from scratch with fresh items.
And most people do buy frozen turkeys and even canned cranberry sauce and stuffing mix. My mother, who was a pretty good cook, used packaged pie crust mix and canned pumpkin for her pumpkin pie. She did make her own mince filling for mince pie and had a great apple pie. We did have wild turkey most years, which is not a bird most people would like. Unless it is a very young bird, it’s gamey and tough. She later cooked goose or a couple of ducks rather than farmed turkey.
The US is a bit of a ‘shelf-stable, ready shredded or boxed’ kind of a place. (And it does make for easier year-over-year comparisons in the specific case here.) I haven’t gotten to the book ‘Ultra-processed People’, but it seems to fit. I grew up on boxes and cans but learned to cook from scratch and prefer it, though I do fall back on prepared foods when in too much of a rush.
We tried selling my in-laws on cranberry sauce made from scratch – it’s unequivocally better from our perspective – but it wasn’t their tradition and we went back to canned, at least at their house. We had the same problem when we made cream of mushroom soup for the green bean casserole, starting from scratch. It was delicious, but it wasn’t ‘the same thing.’ My wife calls it the ketchup problem… you can make any craft ketchup you like, but everyone (in the US) is used to the flavor of Heinz (and Campbell’s, etc), and any difference is interpreted as strange.
We strongly agree about scratch cranberry sauce! I never saw the appeal of canned jellied cranberry sauce when I was growing up—although, to be fair, it’s inherently not something that appeals to a child’s palate—but as an adult I decided to give homemade a chance. That was about 30 years ago and it is now a favorite with our Thanksgiving gang.
It’s easy to make and can be made days ahead: it keeps more or less forever. Leftovers can be served on vanilla ice cream as well as with rich main courses. It has to be healthier than anything that comes in a can.
Regarding prices, I noted that this year Ocean Spray is selling fresh cranberries in 8 oz bags instead of 12 oz, which had been standard for many years. I don’t remember what I paid for them last year, but I’m reasonably confident that the price per ounce has gone up. Climate change has really done a number on cranberry farmers, although AFAIK the catastrophe of a few years back, when prolonged hot dry weather decimated the crop in both Maine and Wisconsin, hasn’t been repeated. Yet.
So, everyone, get out there and make your own cranberry sauce from scratch while you still can!
I generally use cranberries in baked goods (yum) and don’t do cranberry sauce. I will note, however, that the popular cocktail meatballs recipe out there is significantly better using the jellied cranberry product rather than grape jelly. I also have a friend that loves it not just on turkey sandwiches but on peanut butter ones. Perhaps there is a place for both, just not with the turkey dinner. :-)
@Goingnowhereslowly at 9:45 am
Totally agree re homemade cranberry sauce! I only discovered it a couple of years ago after eating Ocean Spray for decades. Now I prepare my own. It’s really easy and I add a fraction of the sugar the commercial one does.
That first batch of cranberry sauce was an eye-opener to my then 20-year old self. It is one thing to see the ingredient list and quite another to measure out all that sugar!
Second and subsequent batches provided opportunities to experiment, like less sugar, some orange zest, some ground spices like cloves.
The fascination for the green bean casserole escapes me. I thought it bland and not up to the spirit of the holiday meal. It seemed like a manufactured menu item to sell more items together. There were tastier side dishes awaiting.
I recently bought some organic, no sugar, real ketchup and it is so much better than that Heinz stuff, but definitely a different taste.
Canned Cranberry Sauce is fn GARBAGE.
My step grandparents had it religiously at Thanksgiving. Grossed me out.
Still don’t like cranberries.
Too true. Phyl always makes her cranberry sauce from scratch.
Having learned basic cooking from her Granmama, she swears by fresh and swears at canned.
Have a good and prosperous Thanksgiving season! (Give my regards to the Abbey down on Decatur. Do they still have the table in the back for straight men? Look but don’t touch was the rule. Most of us were stopping by for a drink after work in the Quarter before going home in a place without the threat of being cruised. The place was perfect for that.)
Specifically about this being “Holiday time” – Some corporations give a holiday for just “Thanksgiving Day”, with folks having to burn a personal day off for the day after. Even if one gets time off on both Thursday and Friday, the prole’s are expected to commute and work the whole day/week prior to thanksgiving. Between preparation for hosting, work, managing kids being home in most school systems, where is the time to cook food the old fashioned way? With the guests being in a similar situation, there is no time to gather and spend time together doing the preparation. It’s a relatively quick lunch or linner or dinner event.
I’ve often wondered about the demographics of thanksgiving meals with respect to prepared vs fresh ingredients in the US. I think there is a significant if not majority of households who prepare from canned and frozen items.
Wild turkeys are rampant here, although meatwise are much smaller than a retail bird. Pretty much nobody wants to get up at 5 am to go shoot dinner that might turn out to be not so good eating. Driving to the store is much easier.
As indicated above, I ate a lot of wild turkey. Unless it’s a very young bird, it is dry and stringly. In general, game is very lean. And you don’t just have to shoot it, you have to pluck feathers and watch for birdshot when eating.
Not a single turkey of the 1,500 or so would-be Butterballs around these parts suspects foul play, all oblivious to the deal going down on Thursday-just another day ending in y.
A friend related that if you can somehow corral one and feed it corn grain for a few months, it might be more palatable, but why bother when with a minimum $50 purchase at Grocery Outlet you can buy a 14 pound frozen turkey for $5.99?
There’s a Butterball factory here in town, and now and then they have an employee sale where they can buy any bird in stock for $10, which usually are the 15-20 lb utility birds. It’s not uncommon to have to pluck some feathers off these. They also occasionally are missing a limb or two, usually it’s a wing torn off, but sometimes there’s a missing leg or both. Still for $10 compared to $40-$50 in the store, who cares. We bought five last year off a friend who works there. Good eating, one left.
the trick to gamey, or older, or otherwise tough meat animals is super slow and wet braising.
i use a 20 qt dutch oven over a slow fire.
lotsa lard and stock will keep it from drying out.
sear it in the lard before adding stock(or wine or beer or juice, depending)
then slow roll it for 3-6 hours.
whatever it is, it’ll fall off the bone.
for uncut male animals(the gameyness), marinate overnight in wine or beer or even coke…or brine it.
(brining is also a fine way to tenderise tough meat, but do look up the process, so you dont oversalt it)
uncut male goats, otoh….lol.
thats dogfood around here.
Considering the trend of events today, a compendium of recipes for ‘Long Pig’ might be in order. Title it “Eat the Rich.”
I particularly like the idea of Mammon Marinade.
Of course all groceries are up quite a bit since the start of the decade. It’s not just Trump. Likely he is to blame for the soaring price of aluminum foil. Greatly increased beef prices seem to have multiple causes.
Not here in Southeast Asia. Prices flat for >2 years, including for coffee. Only exception is eggs. Oh, and chocolate.
Retail grocery in Thailand is very good. The prices in the Seven/Eleven shops that are everywhere, at least in Bangkok, were comparable to big store prices and carried a fair variety of products when I was there in November 2024. This contrasts with the very limited selection and much higher prices in the main corner store chain in Quebec (Couche-Tard) and the small stores I’m familiar with in Ottawa and Toronto.
Chocolate: sad, but it’s the same everywhere. Prices have gone up a lot. I forget why – weather, virus infection? Don’t remember…
Likely he is to blame for the soaring price of aluminum foil.
Quite likely he is. The USA produces very little aluminium. Canada is the largest exporter of aluminium to the USA and accounts for more than 50% of imports. Trump slapped a 50% tariff on those imports.
Our aluminium cans for beer and pop used to be made in the USA from Canadian aluminium. The advent of the tariffs means we are making them here. Another Trump win.
Hence the sudden rise of Joe Four Pack?
Trump does not get enough credit for inflation during his first term.
Case in point, I had my eye on a Honda Civic but didn’t buy it quick enough. The cost went up 25% by the end of his term. It is now closer to 60%.
Another example, washing machines increased 50% in his first term…up now about 100%. And don’t get me started on the low-water washing machine dreck that took effect in his first term. I can’t help but think they planned to give all that water we were denied to wash our clothing in so they could give it to the frackers (drill baby drill) to forever destroy with their chemical concoctions.
If all of the sudden the Dow 30 index was now the Dow 23 index, would anybody notice?
The Dow 23 would be Prime investment candidates.
When I was around 12, my mom rebelled against the kitchen and we went out to eat for Thanksgiving from then on, all over nice restaurants and hotels in LA…
Anybody else do that?
This reminds me of the shrinkflation gentleman in MA I think that has been tracking shrinking packaging sizes for years (decades?) now. And as I recall he keeps the containers so you can see the differences.
USA: Red faces for Heinz as ketchup bottles found underfilled
As I recall, they had received an industry award for their packaging “innovation” of the new plastic bottle!
An eight pound ham for $11.48?!? Bone-in hams around here are going for $2.99 per pound and they include 1 to 1 1/2 pounds of bone.
i like the bone…i freeze it, and use it later for navy bean soup.(boys’ favorite cold weather food)
I used to cadge marrow bones from a friendly local grocery store inhouse butcher to make marrow soup with. This was before management got wise to the “niche” market of “healthy foods.” Phyl never liked bean soup, but her Dad, who cooked a lot himself loved to make his own bean base for ‘Beans and Rice’ dishes.
Have a good Holiday o nekkid hippy. (Man, that reminds me of some of the old underground comix. I had a bunch of Zap Comix and Slow Death comix. Katrina did away with the lot.)
We use ours for boiled dinner and split pea soup. A bone is not as valuable as the equivalent amount of meat though.
Why does the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keep lying about the rate of inflation? I shop for groceries regularly and inflation on those fer sure ain’t 2%. In my shopping experience, all grocery items (canned goods, produce, meat, dairy) have roughly doubled since 2020. As I said, that ain’t 2% inflation.
Then there’s the things mentioned frequently on NC, like house prices and rent, home and health insurance. I’d like to see the BLS explain the massive increases on them and then show how they fit into its 2% inflation scenario.
For confirmation of the BSness of BLS’s BS inflation figures there’s this from yesterday’s links:
https://www.globalhighways.com/news/52-billion-baltimore-bridge-replacement
“Higher material costs and the need for improved protection technology for the supports are major factors in the increased price of the project. It was originally expected to cost $1.9 billion to replace the bridge.”
Higher material costs! The new cost due to material price increases is now $5.2 billion. A 270% increase! Even those mathematically challenged can see this ain’t 2% inflation. I would love to see the BLS try to explain this one! Maybe they will tell me about all the “hedonic” improvements on the bridge!
We really do live in a “post-truth” era.
“We have always been at war with poverty.”
Somehow it feels like America’s had the same, but re-packaged economic policy for a while now, but hopefully we can all rally around “affordability”:
1982 Voodoo Economics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8hnM6xNjeU
So yeah, you young-un’s, we knew it wasn’t going to work, but hey, a lot of real rich powerful elite people got much richer and more powerful.