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Links 12/2/2025

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A backwards Bible map that changed the world ScienceDaily (Kevin W)

Heritability as Stalking Horse for Mutability Freddie deBoer

Smartphones at age 12 linked to worse health Axios

Singapore Extends Secondary School Smartphone Ban To Cover Entire School Day Straits Times

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Changing the FDA’s Vaccine Approval Process Could Threaten COVID, Flu Protection for Children Scientific American (Kevin W)

Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine During the 2024-2025 Respiratory Viral Season MedRxiv. Not a fan of flu vaccines due to poor efficacy. More confirmation.

Climate/Environment

Amphibians see steep global decline: Study finds 788 species in decline over four decades Down to Earth

Plastic pollution is worsened by warming climate and must be stemmed, researchers warn PhysOrg

El Niño is beginning to occur more regularly, every 2 to 5 years Earth

China?

China services activity hits 3-year low while factory slump persists Financial Times

China Tells Stats Providers to Halt Home Sales Data Publication Bloomberg:

The delayed data disclosure came after China Vanke Co. — long considered one of the sector’s healthier firms — sought to postpone repayment on a local bond for the first time last week. Vanke’s surprise move added to the industry’s woes after years of falling sales and massive defaults by China Evergrande Group, Country Garden Holdings Co., and others

China’s grand plan to dominate global publishing Asia Times (Kevin W)

Anti-Corruption Protests: Thousands attend protests against corruption in Philippines CGTN

Southeast Asia

The current could kill an elephant’: Asia flood survivors describe escaping with their lives Guardian (Kevin W)

Thailand shuts border crossings as Myanmar–Karen clashes intensify Nation Thailand

Africa

Famine In Sudan And How The Powerful Use Starvation As A Weapon Forbes

Urgent Warning: Is Mali Destined to Become the Next Afghanistan? Politics UK

South of the Border

Trump Is the Destroyer of Peace Daniel Larison

Venezuela calls on OPEC to counter US threats Aljazeera

Trump warns Honduras over election delays, accuses commission of halting vote count Anadolu Agency

Peru closes southern border with Chile DW

European Disunion

Europe’s Economy Records Weakest Growth in Six Decades Hungary Today

Europe’s drilling comeback challenges US energy pledges Reuters

EXCLUSIVE: Police raid EU External Action Service, College of Europe in sweeping fraud probe Euractiv. A shot across the bow?

Greek farmers have clashed with police during protests in central and northern regions over the delayed payment of European Union subsidies Aljazeera

Old Blighty

Lammy: Courts cannot cling on to jury trials for the sake of tradition Telegraph. Colonel Smithers’ reply to my “!!!!”:

Lammy was interviewed by the BBC breakfast tv news an hour ago. He was ambushed with some of his old tweets in defence of jury trials on the grounds of diversity and urging the need to spend more on the justice system. He weasel worded his way out by saying jury trials still have their place, but not in all cases.

The urgency comes in part from the Palestine trials coming up. One embarrassing one involves retired colonel, decorated hero and son of holocaust survivors Chris Romberg. There’s also a retired Anglican priest. Six of the Palestine protesters are on hunger strike and have been for the past three weeks. It’s not reported.

It’s not a surprise. As a councillor in north London, Lammy admitted to a colleague that his Harvard scholarship was fixed by a Zionist oligarch. His wife is Jewish and was introduced to him by the oligarch.

UK refrains from hitting high street on Black Friday as fears grow over economy Guardian

Files expose Britain’s secret D-Notice censorship regime The Grayzone (Kevin W)

Israel v. The Resistance

UN says Israel has “de facto state policy” of organised torture WSWS

Live: Israeli forces kill several Palestinians across the West Bank and Gaza Middle East Eye. In case you missed that there is and has been no ceasefire.

It’s not just Gaza. From the West Bank to Syria and Lebanon, Israel’s onslaught continues Guardian

German arms purchases finance Israeli genocide Nachdenkseiten via machine translation (Micael T)

Beit Jinn: The ambush that shattered Israel’s illusions in south Syria The Cradle

Drought forces Iran to halt power generation at major dam Iran International

New Not-So-Cold War

ECB refuses to provide backstop for €140bn Ukraine loan Financial Times. Lead story. Not a surprise, but no longer can Ursuala von der Leyen keep droning on about seizing the Russian assets. Euroclear has said they will sue if anyone tries to make them go ahead unless they get what amounts to joint and several indemnification from EU member states which was never never never gonna happen. The ECB backstop was the only possible alternative.

Post-war borders dominated “intense” U.S.-Ukraine talks Axios. ZOMG, the delusion, it burns. And not just the obvious problem of Russia. Further proven so by Ukraine successfully staring the US down: Macron: No ‘finalized’ peace plan on Ukraine Politico (Kevin W)

Europe’s humiliation over Ukraine Unherd. Odd that Munchau follows the EU he denigrates in treating Orban as a non-entity.

NATO’s Flirtation With Pre-Emptive Cyber Strikes Against Russia Is Incredibly Dangerous Andrew Korybko

Tensions Between Kazakhstan and Ukraine Rise After Oil Infrastructure Attack Times of Central Asia

Calumny Scott Ritter. Micael T: “A funny retort from Scott to Doctorow.” Moi: Even though Ritter can be hot-headed and hyperbolic, he regularly provides useful detail not presented elsewhere. By contrast, I found Doctorow useful only when providing recaps of discussions on the big name Russian political TV shows on his website, and never a single thing he said on YouTube.

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

Flock Uses Overseas Gig Workers to Build its Surveillance AI 404 Media

Imperial Collapse Watch

The Financialization Hoover Effect & The End Of The American Dream Ian Welsh

A Hard Truth About the DC Shooting Corbin Trent and America’s Undoing (resilc). Important.

After the Fall: America Beyond Late-Stage Capitalism Futuredude. Micael T: “Since there is no list of people to off (e.g. Forbes billionaires), this is just virtue signalling. “Over my dead body, will I part with my money,” will the moneyed say. To which you as a world-changer must answer, “I am happy to oblige.”

Trump 2.0

Since Trump’s Return, Bets on His Brand Have Soured Wall Street Journal (Dr. Kevin)

Authority Crisis

White House Defends Hegseth Over Strike on Alleged Drug Boat That Killed Survivors Wall Street Journal. Lead story. See Nat’s coverage of this news report in an update as well as for background.

An excellent development. When you are expliaing, you are losing. Congress has largely rolled over regarding Trump (and previous administrations) greatly exceeding his authority, particularly with war-making, but the armed services and ex-service members are drawing a line. Recall that Larry Wilkerson warned that the bizarre Trump parade was a vehicle for the Administration to have particularly Trump-favoring military personnel self identify, and they could serve as a cadre to support Trump in turning against American citizens, say in a declaration of martial law. If that was a plan or at least an option Trump was developing, he scored a major own goal when he called in all top officers for the bizarre Patton-themed speech by Hegseth, in which Hegseth came off as a blustering, muscle-headed junior officer while also warning of the enemy within. The order to fire on unarmed boats which pose no danger to the US, and then firing on one a second time, while a seemingly small bore further overreach, was nevertheless so well publicized and such a one-sided test case as to provide solid grounds for the military to push back. And IMHO it is not going to go over at all well in the armed forces that Hegseth is trying to throw Admiral Mitch Bradley under the bus. This is not what bona fide leaders do. They take responsibility.

Hegseth Ordered a Lethal Attack but Not the Killing of Survivors, Officials Say New York Times. Erm, how is “Kill everyone” not “Kill everyone”?

Soldiers Have ‘Duty To Refuse’ Hegseth’s Order To Commit War Crimes Moon of Alabama (Kevin W)

Fears grow inside military over illegal orders after Hegseth authorized follow-up boat strike The Hill

Tariffs

Costco sues over Trump’s tariffs in a bid to secure a refund Business Insider

<1>L’affaire Epstein

Epstein Revelations Won’t Bring Down Trump American Conservative (resilc)

Our No Longer Free Press

Austria’s Rebel Nuns Refuse To Give Up Instagram To Stay In Their Convent NPR

Economy

Record 3.13M passengers screened at airports on Sunday The Hill. Due to deferred travel during the shutdown.

Recession with Decreasing Employment and Increasing GDP? Menzie Chinn

Are We Sleepwalking Into a Diesel Shortage? Honest Sorcerer (guurst)

America’s Fragile Grid Faces a Perfect Storm Ahead of Winter OilPrice (resilc)

Electricity costs have risen significantly for many Americans Washington Post (guurst)

Why a copper crunch is looming Money Week

Mr. Market is Moody

The $260 Billion Mom-and-Pop Funds Distorting the Credit Market Bloomberg. Important

Global economy: If a triple bubble looms, can we survive a triple burst? World Economic Forum

The AI bubble isn’t new — Karl Marx explained the mechanisms behind it nearly 150 years ago The Conversation

AI

REVEALED: Sam Altman’s OpenAI Is ‘MONEY LOSS MACHINE’ Breaking Points, YouTube. Good layperson-friendly account. Also a sign that these concerns are getting into the mainstream. Important point: announcing OpenAI deals not longer gooses stock prices. Oopsie!

Colleges Are Preparing To Self-Lobotomize Atlantic

New York Now Requires Retailers To Tell You When AI Sets Your Price New York Times (Kevin W)). Set your VPN to New York City when you shop online!

Virginia Democrat flips seat in state legislature by taking on datacenters Guardian (resilc)

ChatGPT-5 offers dangerous advice to mentally ill people, psychologists warn Guardian (Kevin W)

The Bezzle

Lane Kiffin to LSU sets maddening precedent amid all-time hypocrisy in college football The Athletic (resilc)

Guillotine Watch

Mangione in court as lawyers seek to rule out notebook, gun and other key evidence BBC

Class Warfare

Young Workers, Eyeing Their Careers, Learn to Embrace the Office New York Times (resilc)

Antidote du jour. John U: “Still life portrait with deer outside my window”:

And a bonus:

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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106 comments

    1. The Rev Kev

      Thanks for that, Carla. Looks like the idea of swiping Russia’s assets in Euroclear has been killed stone dead. Ursula will be heartbroken. Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot also dug in his heels as well. Replying to journalist Jean Quatremer, who accused Belgium of playing into the hands of “Russo-Americans” by opposing the seizure, Prevot retorted-

      ‘It is not for nothing that European countries are unwilling to show solidarity and share the risks, as we have been rationally requesting for months. Otherwise, why refuse this risk-sharing?’

      https://www.rt.com/news/628742-belgium-rejects-russian-asset-freeze/

      Belgium knows that the EU would have no problem with them being left to swing in the wind and are not having a bar of it.

      Reply ↓
      1. Skip Intro

        The police raid on the offices of Kallas’ little EU satrapy for corruption may indeed be a shot across the bow, or it may be more like a shot into the hull.

        Reply ↓
  2. The Rev Kev

    “NATO’s Flirtation With Pre-Emptive Cyber Strikes Against Russia Is Incredibly Dangerous”

    I can only imagine that they are setting up a trap for the US. That they will push against Russia with everything short of an actual military attack and when Russia retaliates, will run off to Washington demanding an Article 6 which will not only entangle the US with a brawl against Russia in Europe but will ensure that the US gets bogged down in Europe with a much larger military commitment and more billions flowing into those EU/NATO countries – which is actually the whole point of the exercise. Gotta keep those US dollars flowing.

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    1. NN Cassandra

      I’m not even sure what these people are talking about. They already are at war with Russia, it may not be official and it’s done via Ukraine, but the bombs are flying just now. Also it seems cyber warfare is much less potent than people hoped for, if it was so easy to remotely turn off power plants and bring down internet, Ukraine/NATO would have done it long time ago (and same goes for Russia). Turns out these things are quite resilient and the most effective way to put them out of business is to blow them up the old fashioned way.

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      1. XXYY

        Of course, the original and foundational idea for what is now the internet was a US military project to design a command and control communication system that would be resilient and keep on operating even as parts of it were being blown up during a nuclear war.

        It’s an odd accident of history that we are now trying to blow up the internet in enemy countries and finding it to be harder than it looked.

        Reply ↓
        1. ilsm

          Some years ago, I had a very brief conversation in the hallway at an Air Force Lab with a scientist who worked the early internet. He was stating his shock about putting gates on the internet. It was originally to be a free and open exchange…… In the early days they did not consider hacking.

          In another job the USAF was trying to keep the bases’ internet backbones somewhat “standard”, and way late beginning to think wifi…..

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        2. Polar Socialist

          Would you believe that Kennedy poured loads of money to computer networks research since learning that Soviet Union was preparing their National Automated System for Computation and Information Processing (OGAS), based on an earlier proposal of a national computer network which the Red Army rejected in 1959 (as they wanted to have their own).

          Oddly enough, the Soviet designers were hoping the system would allow Soviet Union to become a cashless society, based purely on electronic payments…

          Nevertheless, the funding was stopped in 1970, since it was deemed too expensive.
          In 1970

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  3. Colonel Smithers

    Thank you, Yves, including for the shout out.

    With regard to the Grayzone’s feature on Britain’s D notice system, I can share an anecdote from when working in Edinburgh a dozen years ago. I think tennis was on and I mentioned Andy Murray. The person I was chatting to said there was more to Dunblane than reported, e.g. the links between the assailant and senior politicians, including George Robertson, and allegations of child sex abuse and firearms violations being covered up.

    The BBC’s Politics Live has a good discussion with regard to jury trial reforms as I type.

    Reply ↓
    1. paul

      The number of people that exited politics from that area, at that time was rather unusual, to say the least.
      I seem to recall that a certain creepy Tory supported the killer’s gun license application.
      Saw Robertson the bbc foyer, convinced he was the inspiration for the phrase ‘mouth like cats arse’
      V bad vibes

      Reply ↓
  4. .Tom

    What Science girl calls a duck slide is in fact a test rig used in quality assurance. First, the testing verifies that the self-righting mechanism works properly. The ducklings must immediately attain upright orientation on entering the pool. All in this video pass. Second, this test protocol allows grading the ducklings learning skills. A-grade ducklings slide down the water to get to the pool and repeat by walking up on the green. Those that walk down the green to the pool receive a lower grade.

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    1. FreeMarketApologist

      What Science girl calls a duck slide is in fact a point of sale display. Once you’ve watched them try the test, you get to pick which three you want for your double sawbuck, per the note on the front of the test rig.

      Reply ↓
      1. TimH

        I wonder which fowl have the best fun/hassle ratio: ducks (which need a pond), geese (which enjoy a pond), or turkeys (a heritage breed).

        Presumption: they are not for the table.

        Reply ↓
  5. flora

    Recent talk given by Yanis Varoufakis about the current change or transformation of capitalism wrt cloud computing and AI. This is a good bookend to the post about cloud computing and data center build-outs, imo. utube, ~17+ minutes.

    Capitalism has mutated into something far more sinister | Yanis Varoufaki

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axCxmUlxAj8

    Reply ↓
    1. none

      I downloaded the transcript (it is pretty clean considering Varoufakis’ accent) and it’s interesting, though it’s the beginning of a longer talk that is subscriber only. I’ll wait til the book comes out. But the basic claim is that recommender algorithms (say on Amazon) are replacing competitive markets. You instead buy what Amazon tells you to buy, and Amazon gets an increasing cut of the revenue. This is what Varoufakis means by technofeudalism: the source of power shifts from land ownership (OG feudalism) to owning the means of production (capitalism) to owning the customer behaviour. Me, I think he should quit using Amazon, Alexa, Spotify, etc. all of which he mentions using.

      Reply ↓
  7. The Rev Kev

    ‘Beauty of music and nature 🌺🌺
    @Axaxia88
    This Puma Thinks It’s a House Cat! 😍’

    Obviously that Puma did not realize that that floor had just been waxed! Always had a soft spot for Pumas for a very stupid reason. As a very young kid here in Oz, Kelloggs Corn Flakes had at one time masks of different cats on the back of their boxes that you could cut out and they had Lions, Tigers, Cougars, etc. but the Puma one always struck me as the most handsome of the set.

    Reply ↓
    1. TimH

      Waxing was stupid of the humans. Also, why throw a cloth over the cat when they know the cat gets distressed by it? Perhaps the waxing was deliberate.

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      1. moose

        For the views. It’s all for the views. This is rather mild, considering what poeple can do for the views on the Internets.

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    2. Bugs

      Wow, that’s a good read. I like Helmer when he pulls away from the old school thick sarcastic tone that is his signature and just lays it on the line. Well, almost on the line. He leaves us in a little suspense at the end!

      Reply ↓
    3. Jonathan Holland Becnel

      Thank you for posting this.

      I think Putin thinks strategically for World Peace and I like how he takes Imperial Punches like Syria and waits.

      The world must see the Empire for the monster that it is.

      I almost feel like Putin is reaching out to us able bodied American men to do better politically and challenge our imperial masters from within while he organizes the rest of the world on the outside.

      Reply ↓
    4. Polar Socialist

      I don’t really understand the pile-up on Doctorow. I’d take him and Diesen any day over Ritter and Helmer, but that doesn’t mean I don’t follow the latter ones at least occasionally or think they are “morons” or shady agents, as they claim/insinuate Doctorow is.

      I guess some in alt-media just can’t deal with differing opinion. I like to have a spectrum of commentators who think and see differently. Boorishness, on the other hand, I find difficult to accommodate.

      Reply ↓
      1. jsn

        I enjoy variety too, Ritter’s a Grappa, Helmer’s obviously Vodka, Diesen a fine wine, and Doctorow a Bourbon.

        Never mix, never worry!

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    2. Laughingsong

      Reverting to one, more like. Next up: Star Chamber, drawing-and-quartering in Smithfield, and armed squabbles for power between York and Lancaster cousins, under which normal folks get regularly trampled.

      Reply ↓
    3. .Tom

      Not guilty verdict.

      Jersey-based anti-genocide activist Natalie Strecker has been found not guilty at her trial on ‘terror’ charges for supporting the Palestinians’ right of resistance to Israel’s occupation, which is guaranteed under international law. She could have faced up to ten years in prison if convicted.

      The government had told the ‘jurat’s of the trial – lay judges – to ignore that international law, but the ‘not guilty’ verdict was delivered just now anyway.

      https://www.thecanary.co/skwawkbox/2025/12/02/strecker-not-guilty/

      That’s a bit of good news. The government chooses a court without a jury to set precedent and the jurats rebel.

      Reply ↓
    4. The Rev Kev

      I don’t fancy her chances of a fair trial on Jersey. Nicholas Shaxson in his book “Treasure Islands: Tax Havens and the Men who Stole the World” talks about the corruption on this island and the idea of actual justice in the UK right now is just something to be observed in the rear vision mirror.

      Reply ↓
      1. .Tom

        I wasn’t feeling good about it either reading Murray’s write up. But it turns out this was too much even for Jersey jurats.

        But we need to keep an eye on where this goes next. BBC News has details of Lamy’s “reforms”:

        Jury trials in England and Wales for crimes that carry a likely sentence of less than three years will be scrapped, the justice secretary has announced.

        https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5lxg2l0lqo

        Idk how they plan to work it because if protesting genocide is terrorism and terrorism gets you 10 years then … ? Perhaps the prosecutors will seek sentences of less than three years for protestors.

        Reply ↓
    6. Carolinian

      Murray appeals to international law but sounds like the “jurats” relied on common sense. The Moon link up above is related as he clearly explains that killing survivors in the water is not only contrary to international law but also to the US military’s own legal manual.

      Perhaps sometime JAG lawyer Lindsey Graham can be called back to service and prosecute Hegseth and those who obeyed the illegal order.

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      1. marcel

        Somebody pointed out that in the Jersey court, one has to prove intent, and that was what set Nathalie free. UK courts don’t need intent, so the few 1000s awaiting trial might get a guilty verdict still.

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    7. Balan Aroxdale

      I don’t think the English are really going to like this, even the upper class ones. They’re turning their legal system into a naked east-continental kangaroo-show even faster than the Americans are.

      The whole mythos of the entire English/British state is built around them not having courts or governments like this (for their upper-classers at least). Their actual myths about king Arthur revolve around symbols of legitimate co-authority (round tables, magic swords that only belong in the right hands, being undone by ill-bred offspring). Their written history is read in very similar terms, with their rights and institutions being learned from counter-example. So seeing everything go to the dark side at their own expense will not be easily digestible or comfortable for the native ruling class. Even less so that they are losing it all on behalf of foreign interests. A Norman Invasion the Zionist junta is not, and I don’t think any number of Ivanhoe re-readings is going to change that.

      Edit: The essential incongruity will be the abuse of state power, on behalf of foreigners, to the native middle class. By the native uppers, fine. To the native lowers, fine. To foreign middles or uppers, fine. By the native lower, not fine. By foreign uppers, not fine, etc. The order of the house is being upset by this.

      Reply ↓
      1. Carolinian

        We just had a PBS show here about the American Revolution and the “rights of Englishmen.” Whether that war was really about those rights they provided quite the rallying cry.

        Perhaps the Beeb can run Ken Burns’ latest so the British aristocrats can see what they did wrong the first time.

        Reply ↓
    8. AG

      Thanks I almost posted it.

      The only more terrifying thing about this might be that at least here in Germany media take zero notice of what is happening in UK.
      The more sources we could read the less we do read it seems.

      Reply ↓
  10. Afro

    There may or may not be some value to Large Language Models, but I just can’t see a point to OpenAI. What does it provide that all of the other LLM providers don’t?

    Reply ↓
    4. XXYY

      This comes up fairly frequently in critical commentary. All the so-called AI businesses are really just a wrapper around someone else’s LLM, and have no unique or distinguishing features that would differentiate them from any other such business.

      You could perhaps try to compete on price, but (a) no one has figured out a rational pricing model for LLM, and (b) it’s hard to compete on price when you are putting your own profit on top of someone else’s profit.

      This is just a minor critique of a fatally flawed industry, of course.

      Reply ↓
      1. Craig H.

        In my zip code we have no deer hunters and the deer don’t come up to you and shake hands but they are far more afraid of cars than they are of humans. The big males will walk right by you with little hesitation.

        Reply ↓
        1. Wukchumni

          Our herd of say a dozen deer are quite docile, and the rule of thumb on the road is if you see one cross in front of you, there are probably a few more coming.

          Reply ↓
  12. Wukchumni

    After the Fall: America Beyond Late-Stage Capitalism Futuredude
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    I think the bigger issue is the idea that the world heretofore had never been so connected when empires fell. When the USSR made it’s iron curtain call, they were disconnected from the west, it wasn’t as if the rest of the world gave 2 shits about Rubles, our situation is just the other way around, as per Bizarro World collapse comparisons between the USA and USSR.

    Reply ↓
    1. Kouros

      I think that it was Churchill that made the Iron Curtain call in 1946 in Fulton, USA. The wall and subsequent actions of the Russians were reactive, as much in Russian history. USUK were staging a financial attack on the Russian occupied Germany…

      Reply ↓
    2. bertl

      The biggest issue is that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela are not connected in any fundamental way to the banking systems of the US and Europe, not least because the US and Europe have chosen to use sanctions, including financial sanctions, and sanctions on exports and imports and the most dreaded sanction of all sanction of all: the prolonged, immature whining and demented braying of Europe’s High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

      The Russians and Chinese are happily doing business with other countries using local currencies and the Chinese have developed a successful model of how to conduct transactions through a cashless utility banking system that avoids the upwards flow of wealth and income common to the West.

      It also means that if the real economy moves in the direction of over-production, without the asset bubbles created by a speculative FIRE sector, it is much easier for a well governed economy to transition to, say, universal free health care, tuition fee and loan free education, free or low cost entertainment, cheap or free public transport, effective allocation of consumer subsidies and investment in public services with a people driven rather than a market driven economy.

      The market provides the data points enabling governments to transition to economies providing different baskets of products and services without having to go through the likes of the Evergrande crash again.

      Of course, some states might find a great deal of resistance from their existing wealth class who enjoy all the benefits of compound interest and rents from inflated assets, but that is always to be expected and I am sure that most countries with growing populations who will benefit from producing and trading with other countries in the Global South will be able to reorient their economies if they choose to do so. After all, the rich in every country will have invested most of their excess wealth and income in the US, Europe and the UK’s Crown Colonies, now officially designated as British Dependent Territories, leading the world as effective parking lots to hide or launder wealth and income.

      Reply ↓
  13. The Rev Kev

    “Are We Sleepwalking Into a Diesel Shortage?”

    I do wonder if this has to do with the attempt to get control of Venezuela’s oil fields. There will always be a need for diesel fuels which require ‘heavy’ oils to make, just like Venezuela has in abundance. The US has already spent over $15 billion to get that country to give up and even more is being allocated for next year. I would reckon on it being a bluff as the fear is getting into another Vietnam with only 11 months til the midterms and it is not like the whole action is popular anyway. But if they can get control of those oilfields, then it would secure America’s access to diesel fuels going forward. It does not matter if the price is high or low, you will always need it.

    Reply ↓
    2. alrhundi

      Why try to transition to a more sustainable fuel source when you can spend billions of dollars to invade another country instead?

      Reply ↓
    3. ISL

      Drones can easily render those oil fields non-productive and death traps, so then you need a perimeter that extends kilometers into the jungle. However, the forces maintaining the perimeter are continuously attrited by drones, and the perimeter needs to be larger (Would they use Agent Orange on US GIs again?). Before you know it, it resembles Vietnam on steroids. In Vietnam, the US was a leader in weapons and warfare strategy and has an industrial base. Now it is a generation behindwith no industrial base (or rare earths) – see Ukraine – and Russia and China have every incentive to return the favor of hundreds of thousands of dead US soldiers by a proxy, and is incapable of strategic thinking.

      Not that there is much evidence that logic plays a role in US tactical decisions.

      Reply ↓
  14. Adam1

    “Venezuela calls on OPEC to counter US threats”

    Since the beginning it was obvious it was all about oil, but reading that $125B in US oil exports got me thinking… A growing number of petroleum geologists believe the US shale play is at peak or within a couple years of peaking and shale wells are known to often show steep production declines after they peak. US control of Venezuelan oil would be huge and a geographically local supply source.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm

      I wonder.

      If the world really needed Venezuelan crude would big oil not softened the neocons? The root is money after all else is weeded out.

      Venezuela’s oil is not just heavy it is very thick. Extraction is a large process and some mixing with light crude is used. There was a refinery in the Caribbean specific to Venezuelan crude run by one of the U.S. giants that went bust years ago.

      All that said, it could be years and a lot of capital before “we” get 3 million barrel a day, and that needing “stability”.

      Reply ↓
      1. ilsm

        I finally read the article.

        One added idea: middle distillates may have been replaced by natural gas in electricity generation I know in northeast U.S. many generators have gone to cleaner natural gas, available from fracking as well. That said some stores of distillates are kept for cold spells where gas is diverted for home heating.

        New generating capacity for data centers could be mostly natural gas.Although some responses to power outages might include on site diesel generation as it is more safely stored than gas. If any data centers might invest in site generators.

        One note from the post, Russian crude sanctions caused real problems for EU deisel!

        I watch U.S. inventory and deisel seems to follow gasoline in stockage.

        Reply ↓
      2. PlutoniumKun

        Venezuelan crude is low grade but proportionately high in middle distillates. As you say, its generally very low grade and as such only really profitable during times of high prices. It would take a long time and a lot of investment for it to produce significant quantities or refined diesel.

        The IEA blames the tightness of the middle distillate market mostly on supply shortfalls from Russia. It does seem that the refinery failures there has mostly impacted on diesel production, and this has had a knock on effect on other markets, including those who don’t buy directly from Russia.

        Reply ↓
      3. AG

        “would big oil not softened the neocons”
        That´s actually a bit that I heard when it all began months ago.
        For me at least it is indeed very unlikely any of this would happen without any participation by big oil. In whatever ways.

        Reply ↓
  15. pjay

    – ‘A Hard Truth About the DC Shooting Corbin Trent and America’s Undoing’ – (resilc). Important.

    I agree that this is a very important part of the story that is, of course, underplayed by our media. On this subject I would recommend Seth Harp’s recent book ‘The Fort Bragg Cartel.’ This may have been posted, but Harp was just on the Breaking Points podcast where he talks about the DC shooter and his unit in Afghanistan. A very relevant interview.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDbiey4IseE

    Reply ↓
    1. CanCyn

      I had a boss who served in the Vietnam War, in communications, not in direct battle. Still he would duck when he heard a helicopter, decades after the war. I worked for him during a time when some Canadian soldiers were found guilty of committing atrocities against some Somali women. Canadians were generally outraged by the news. My boss’s reaction – why on earth would we expect men who had been trained to kill without remorse to behave like compassionate human beings? I was already a pacifist, that just swung me further into anti-war territory.

      Reply ↓
      1. t

        FOX has been making the fanciful claim that Rahmanullah Lakanwal “self-radicalized” after arriving in the US.

        Points for creativity, or points off for embracing ChatGPT? Hard to say.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          Gotta wipe that connection with the CIA though it might get awkward if the guy gives testimony in court. Maybe the media, like with the second Trump shooter, will simply not cover the trial until it is over.

          Reply ↓
  16. Balan Aroxdale

    Young Workers, Eyeing Their Careers, Learn to Embrace the Office New York Times (resilc)

    The NYT has become the most passive aggressive Ministry of Truth possible.

    Reply ↓
  17. The Rev Kev

    “Beit Jinn: The ambush that shattered Israel’s illusions in south Syria”

    I don’t know what the Israelis were expecting. They helped wreck Syria, are trying to break it up into zones with the southern one demilitarized, are not too worried about Jihadists roaming around the countryside and are not too worried either about Syria having an Al Qaeda President. And then are shocked that Syrians are shooting at them when they treat south Syria as the West Bank.

    Reply ↓
    1. Offtrail

      While talking to Judge Napolitano about the Caribbean murders recently, Charles Freeman made the point that we have become like the Israelis. We have been headed down that road for years.

      Reply ↓
      1. moose

        If “we” means USA, the point made is plain wrong. It’s USA that made Israel in its liking.

        Recent Caribbean boat murders are child’s play, in the grand scheme of things. The kill count is a “rookie number”, even when compared to short adventures like the one Yemen.

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  19. Jason Boxman

    From The Financialization Hoover Effect & The End Of The American Dream

    They don’t, yet, understand what they’ll lose when China is recognized by everyone as the most important and powerful country in the world, or what the decay of American military ability (entirely a product of a now lost industrial and tech lead) will mean to them.

    Indeed, you can’t fight a hot war without ammunition, or soldiers, as we’ve seen in Ukraine. American military power is truly in dire straights, with key components coming from China, no domestic capacity at all, and a population that is increasingly sickly, to say nothing of COVID. Not much prospects for bringing any serious military force to bear, save the use of nuclear weapons.

    Oops.

    Reply ↓
    1. nyleta

      Doug Noland is highlighting the recent presentation by the new head of the Bank of International Settlements at the London School of Economics . This was Fiscal Threats in a Changing Global Financial System.

      The supply of gov. bonds is too high for normal markets to absorb and leveraged NBFIs and hedge funds are being used to fill the gap. Their operations are opaque and are causing repo and SOFR problems already. Central Banks may be working hand in hand with these people in places like the Cayman Islands.

      Trying to link crypto and stable coins to Treasuries will only make it worse. No wonder people are moving to precious metals, but this is only possible in a small way for people on the street since the only safe custodian now is the mattress.

      Reply ↓
      1. ArvidMartensen

        As I understand it now, the digital coins get rolled out by the powers that be, to mop up excess liquidity and stop inflation roaring into life.

        So Bitcoin magically turned up just as the QE program was getting into full swing. Created by Satoshi in his garage, yuk, yuk, yuk.
        And now Tether gets the nod just as the US is having trouble attracting overseas funds and the Japan carry trade seems to be imploding and there might be a US govt bailout of AI.

        Both of these mop up excess $US, and with the right signals from government, these funds can disappear in the twinkling of an eye. The Fed giveth and their back room boys taketh away.

        Crypto use for criminality probably suits the oligarchs very well too, as another vehicle for storing ill-gotten gains, so what’s not to love. Although that’s a brake on the govt making crypto go poof and disappearing into the hat with the magic rabbit.

        Reply ↓
    2. Glen

      Yeah, sobering article, but as Ian says we’ve seen coming for a long time now. If America had a fundamentally strong country maybe then American elites wouldn’t act as if idiotic military interventionism was their goto option to maintain their place. Over twenty years of idiotic wars and over forty years of wrecking your own country have taken a toll.

      This AI moonshot to get to AGI isn’t going to end well either, but now that the Silly Con Valley AI tech lords are paraded around in the MSM more, you being to understand that most of these guys just happen to get rich pretty young from stuff they didn’t invent (internet, web pages, banking) and other than that they’re really not the sharpest tools in the shed – AGI is probably a step up compared to them. (Ha, what if it tells them to do a New Deal?)

      Reply ↓
  20. Eric Anderson

    Wuk, you ain’t in Kansas anymore. Or, Texas. Or, any of the bible belt for that matter. Every day is an opportunity to display the prom queen chops. Especially on nebulous deity day. Gotta mask to keep from passing out from all the volatiles in the air.

    Reply ↓
    1. amfortas

      yes! such places and events literally stink to high heaven.
      do our betters not bathe, or something?

      i mean, when i am dragged to a bar or some event, i’ll dab a little bitty bit of bay rum on my neck and crotch…just in case…but damn! these folks drench themselves.

      Reply ↓
  21. Jason Boxman

    From Young Workers, Eyeing Their Careers, Learn to Embrace the Office

    As Lambert was fond of saying, extroverts are going to kill us all

    In 100 responses to a New York Times questionnaire, many readers 30 or younger who were able to spend time working from home in the last five years said they still preferred that arrangement. But many others said they had sought to spend more time in the office in recent years. They often cited feelings of isolation as a reason, as well as a desire for more mentoring and feedback, and to improve the odds of a promotion.

    “One of the things I was looking for was more in-office opportunity to learn and ask questions,” said Kenneth Sullivan, 30, a civil engineer based in the Seattle area who specializes in designing and inspecting bridges.

    (bold mine)

    Gonna get that COVID, everyone!

    What a shame we haven’t embraced improved air filtration and ventilation.

    Overwhelmingly, those interviewed in this article are of course tech workers.

    Reply ↓
    1. ibaien

      you really find it remarkable that the most atomized, disconnected, friendless generation might want to have part of their day spent in a structured environment working with their peers and mentors? and maybe go out for a drink afterwards?

      not everyone wants to pretend-work from a corner of the bedroom in their jammies all day…

      Reply ↓
      1. Jason Boxman

        No, but I do find it remarkable in year six of the Pandemic we’re all being exposed repeatedly to a level 3 biohazard without any mitigations, and extroversion played a role in the horrid “show us your smile” wankery.

        Reply ↓
      2. alrhundi

        Lots of us yutes like to go into the office every now and then for some good ol’ fashioned face to face interaction, especially when we live close to it so commuting isn’t soul-draining.

        Reply ↓
    2. neutrino23

      There is no one right answer. There are toxic work environments from which it is good to recede from. Work from home can be very productive time. A good office filled with intelligent humans can be wonderfully enriching and beneficial.

      For quite a while I was in a career that let me visit lots of companies. It was fascinating to see the company personalities behind the facade. You drive down the highway and see so many buildings and can’t tell what is inside.

      Another interesting observation is that most companies seem to be able to keep their personalities over long periods of time. I guess they mostly hire people they see as a good fit and newcomers work to assimilate.

      Sometimes it can be quite sad. I was visiting one factory the day they decided to have their Christmas Party. It wasn’t much. But at least they got a few hours off from the grind.

      After this experience I really have to laugh when people say government should be run like a business. God help us.

      Reply ↓
  22. Bootstraps

    https://t.me/Slavyangrad/149390
    [video 0:25]
    ‼️🇺🇦😁 Zelensky’s Prophecy: Scenes from the series “Servant of the People” are beginning to come true
    ▪️In episode 16 of season 2, the former corrupt premier Chuyko, who was released from prison by agreement with president Holoborodko (played by Zelensky), tries to fly out of Ukraine to Israel under the surname Mindich.
    ▪️Recently, Zelensky’s main accomplice, the corruptor Mindich, also fled from Ukraine.
    ▪️Notably, the series ended with the collapse of Ukraine into 28 states. Expect 😁

    Reply ↓
  24. XXYY

    ECB refuses to provide backstop for €140bn Ukraine loan. Financial Times

    I’ve been enjoying the constant, ongoing attempts by various and sundry grifters to try to get their grubby hands on the frozen Russian assets. This huge pile of money, just sitting there in plain sight, is obviously driving a large flock of these idiots off their rockers.

    Part of the entertainment is the obvious desire of EU elites to go along with this plan, while at the same time ensuring that they are not personally stuck holding the bag for it at some point in the future. The result is constant, tortured interpretations of banking and civil regulations and performative declarations to the effect that we are still a society of laws.

    The Russians would have an easy time putting together a game show type news broadcast outlining the most recent antics of the contestants.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jason Boxman

      From the CNN post Michael and Susan Dell donate $6.25 billion to fund ‘Trump Accounts’ for millions of American kids it’s hard not to notice his wife has had some serious work done.

      The Dells’ charitable gift will go toward children ages 10 and under who were born before the cut-off for the Treasury’s funding. The Dells’ donation will fund $250 deposits for investment accounts for at least 25 million children, resulting in a total gift of $6.25 billion.

      It’s one of the largest private investments in American children in history, according to Invest America, a nonprofit organization helping spearhead the initiative to develop these accounts.

      As opposed to, say, funding universal college/technical college for kids, or cleaning the air of dangerous pathogens, or ensuring healthcare as a human right.

      Reply ↓
      1. Kurtismayfield

        Its all to set the groundwork to dump SS. Once enough of these children have a few $k in these accounts they will push the narrative of “The market will provide” and underfund them. Thus setting up another investment fund type retirement system and killing off SS.

        Reply ↓
  26. Wukchumni

    Matt Gaetz and Laura Loomer played reporters @ the Pentagon today, which means they couldn’t find any real reporters, or at least those on their side.

    …how would we know when the wheels come off the tumbrel?

    Reply ↓
  28. Wukchumni

    A demagogue must be neither an educated nor an honest man; he has to be an ignoramus and a rogue.

    Aristophanes

    Reply ↓
  29. Jason Boxman

    MAGA on the March

    Delayed tariff impact starting to hit, could cause companies to reduce head count in 2026 (CNBC)

    Tariffs aimed at reshoring U.S. jobs lost to overseas manufacturing could end up lowering head count instead, according to statements from corporate executives and economic forecasters.

    Respondents to the Institute for Supply Management’s November survey of factory conditions expressed elevated levels of worry.

    A report Tuesday from the OECD indicated that tariffs have yet to bite the global economy but warned that the full impact could be still to come.

    Bullish?

    Reply ↓
  30. Alice X

    Breaking: Hegseth indicted for murder, says the Admiral did it… Details at 11…

    Oh wait, never mind, I was just dreaming. :-/

    Reply ↓
  31. Revenant

    Lots of small comments:

    – bibles with maps: what does the author mean, all bibles are printed with maps? Not in the C of E, they’re not! I’ve never seen a bible with a map! And I will bet not in Catholicism either. This sounds distinctly evangelical, gotta know where the Holy Land is because it is about blood and soil, not the soul.

    – covid vaccination reduce stroke, clotting etc. Are they sure this is not just the effect of covid (+ vaccination) harvesting all the susceptible early? So later years look great. In the long run the rate will renormalise if so but in the current data how would you distinguish “saved the sickly” from “killed the sickly”? The article did not discuss this….

    – Wolfgang Munchau: the article never mentioned Hungary or Orban so I presume the reference was an aside about his over coverage but I was very confused for a while!

    – diesel shortage. There has been plenty of reporting that the Ukraine’s claims of reduced Russia refinery output are false. The refineries have scheduled maintenance every autumn and the attacks barely moved production from these seasonal trends and there were no observable shortages in the nation. Could the diesel shortage be because Russia is withholding suitable crude or refined products, to put West under pressure? Or just refining getting expensive as refiners abandon the West (UK’s last refinery at risk)?

    Reply ↓
  32. Francis Parker

    Regardless of what Hegseth did or did not order, Kelly should be recalled to duty, court-martialed, and imprisoned. Slotkin should lose any benefits she may have accrued from the CIA, and then be removed from the Senate.

    If you want less illegal killing, you maintain military discipline. This is 101. Kelly knows, or ought to know, this. And he participated in what looks to me like an op between left-globalists, Langley and the Bezos Post.

    Trump should have acted on this the minute it happened. But Trump is personally weak, and his weakness will only encourage more of the same.

    The inequity of the Viet Nam era draft continues to haunt what’s left of the nation.

    Reply ↓
    1. Alice X

      I have read this twice, many thoughts of authoritarianism are revealed. I’ll have to get back to it, if I can stand it. For now: woe…!

      Reply ↓

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