Links 1/2/2026

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1. The Rev Kev January 2, 2026 at 7:19 am

   “Did fireworks on champagne bottles trigger deadly blaze in Swiss ski resort bar?”

   This was a bar that attracted young people apparently and a specialty was serving bottles of champagne with several lit sparklers on them. The story is that a girl got onto the shoulders of her boyfriend and hoisted up a bottle in each hand which came in contact with the ceiling and started the fire. As wood won’t catch fire like that, then I can only assume that there was plastic on that ceiling which carried the flames. It’s a bad business. They think that it will take weeks to identify the bodies and no doubt the police have put together a list of missing people. Was in Crans-Montana for several weeks which was not a bad town but you can be sure that local kids were also caught up in this fire so will really hit this town hard.

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   1. Wukchumni January 2, 2026 at 8:00 am

      Lit a burn pile yesterday about 4 feet tall and you get 2 & 1/2 times the height of the fire going on, so there was a 10 foot flame desperately searching out for more fuel, but the sky won’t ignite.

      If there had been something to burn 15 feet up, the fire would have tried its best to ignite it-conflagrations feed on fuel above.

      Whatever accelerator was on the ceiling (probably plastic and paper) it simply went to town once lit, with nothing but fuel above to add to the misery and loss of so many lives.

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   2. PlutoniumKun January 2, 2026 at 8:21 am

      Time will tell as to what the cause of the fire was, but any Fire professional will tell you that its very easy to design and build a fire proof building, but almost impossible to keep it fireproof as owners have a bad habit of continually changing the interiors. For the most part (depends of course on the country), interior decorative changes don’t require Fire Code approval. And there are plenty of times when architects specify fire proofed materials to find that a contractor just switches to something cheaper during construction. Its particularly problematic in restaurants/bars as you have very large spaces combined with lots of furnishings. In any fire code I’m aware of, suspended ceilings are supposed to be made from fire proof materials, but it just takes one person to decide they want to cover it with something more decorative to create a potential hazard.

      In the apartment building I live in, we discovered by chance that a contractor had punched a hole through a one-hour fireproof barrier because someone decided to switch the position of a toilet by a couple of metres. It proved a very costly decision as the unit owner was forced to switch everything back and re-seal the void at their own expense.

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   3. .human January 2, 2026 at 9:34 am

      Being a Holiday party, decorations probably played a role.

      So sad…

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   4. geode January 2, 2026 at 2:12 pm

      This reminds me of a time back in 1971, when I fired a flare gun at a concert in Montreux.

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   5. amfortas January 2, 2026 at 3:11 pm

      and sparklers have magnesium(hence the white flame)..burns at some thousand degrees.
      almost impossible to put out, aside from total submersion.
      and every body gives them to toddlers,lol.

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2. Louis Fyne January 2, 2026 at 7:39 am

   being Reddit, can’t be verified. but a reasonable allegation that sounds like it’s straight from Uber (Eats) HQ, and a logical extension of what happens when you have de facto infinite (reasonably good) predictive algos.

   long length. one nugget: if you are a good tipper on the app, your delivery driver’s base pay offer will be cut, so that the top-line for the driver stays the same but HQ lowers labour costs

   https://old.reddit.com/r/confession/comments/1q1mzej/im_a_developer_for_a_major_food_delivery_app_the/

   Mr. Moran (the Uber follower should read the whole post)

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   1. Louis Fyne January 2, 2026 at 7:52 am

      this is the logical extension, and final destination, of nudge psychology—-weaponizing people’s innumeracy, desperation, decision overload, etc. against them

      https://search.brave.com/search?q=nudge+theory

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   2. Historicality January 2, 2026 at 8:19 am

      Those gig companies just can’t help screwing over people.

      Hey, the business model says do this.
      We have to do this.
      Or else chaos ensues our dividends are smaller.
      Look, a squirrel.
      Oh, were there people involved? Nah, just drivers.

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   3. CanCyn January 2, 2026 at 10:58 am

      I once worked at a restaurant where the owner took a small commission on tips paid on credit cards. Most customers, once they realized, would tip in cash. We frequented a Vietnamese restaurant where you paid on the way out and there was tip jar at the counter. Someone told us that the owners kept the tips. When we tried giving cash to our servers they very nervously declined. We stopped eating there. All this to say, it was ever thus between management and labour. As long as we keep looking for cheap and convenient anything, some worker somewhere is going to get ripped off.

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      1. amfortas January 2, 2026 at 3:18 pm

         yeah. and the boss will say “oh you hafta pool yer tips so everybody gets their fair share(sometimes the busboys, too)”…but boss would count, since a lot of it was creditcards,and skim in the office, and most werent the wiser.
         the few waitresses who were savvy/experienced enough to notice were often made uncomfortable with innuendo and whisper campaigns until they left(and they were often the very best waitresses…i poached them when i opened my place,lol)

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3. The Rev Kev January 2, 2026 at 7:46 am

   “Please stop mailing butt plugs to Bahrain”

   Mailing that sort of stuff there was always going to be a pain in the a**. Somebody should film the troops marching in that country and try to determine which ones are walking kinda awkwardly.

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   1. Bugs January 2, 2026 at 8:02 am

      A friend of mine who moved to Thailand from China a few years ago could not get any sex toys that she bought online delivered to her house because they were stopped in customs. She asked me to buy some for her and ship discretely as gifts wrapped in a t-shirt. I imagine there are lots of countries where these are banned.

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   2. Christopher Fay January 2, 2026 at 8:51 am

      I missed when butt blues started to become a thing but I’m not so behind to know they have become common. Anyway if there’s a hole in the market it will be filled. Thanks China

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   3. Adam1 January 2, 2026 at 9:38 am

      LOL. It’s been well known anecdotally that the military has a higher percentage of queer people than the general population (closeted young gay & bi men looking for the military to “fix” them into being real straight men).

      Anyhow, per a 2015 RAND Corp study, the navy has the highest percentage of queer folks… 9.1%.

      Anecdotally I saw a former UK sailor interviewed on a gay youtube channel say he estimated 15% on the ship he served on (he was discharged for making OF porn videos on ship – LOL. His data point might be accurate).

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      1. redrum January 2, 2026 at 10:23 am

         Also anecdotally, I’ve heard another former UK sailor (on a non-gay youtube channel) saying that the percentage is higher on submarines than surface ships.

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         1. ibaien January 2, 2026 at 12:44 pm

            i worked long long ago with the sweetest, butchest (golden glove boxer) gay ex-submariner and he told me that various subs were known to be “party subs”, which i suppose would either incentivize or disincentivize one’s choice of boat. guess there’s not a lot else to get up to down there…

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      2. PlutoniumKun January 2, 2026 at 10:39 am

         It probably predates him as a quote, but Winston Churchill is said to have claimed that the primary traditions of the Royal Navy were based on rum, sodomy, and the lash.

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      3. amfortas January 2, 2026 at 3:20 pm

         its all the seamen.
         (ducks out quickly…)

         ((a retired(and female and rather hot) navy quartermaster(or mistress?) told me that one)

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4. PlutoniumKun January 2, 2026 at 8:11 am

   Should US homebuilders emulate Sweden? Construction Physics

   Swedish (and German) prefab home construction companies sell over much of Europe, so its not difficult to do general comparisons of quality and price.

   In general, even allowing for transport costs, pre-fab homes cost significantly more than traditional in-situ methods. The main advantage for the client is the much faster speed of construction (a matter of weeks usually, compared to a year or more) and a level of certainty with building quality and cost (as with the latter, its usually a fixed price contract). For Passive House standard, the cost difference is a lot less, but still pretty significant, although it will vary very widely according to local construction market conditions – an architect I know estimated that he could build from scratch a house to Passive House standard for at least 10% less than a Swedish or German pre-fab, even during a tight construction labour market (he was, it should be said, not a neutral bystander, as these houses mean less work for architects).

   It gets a little more complex with mass home construction, as there are numerous ‘half way’ solutions to prefabrication. For example, in the UK and Ireland, roofs are often pre-fabricated and trucked to a site. Its rarely cheaper, just faster, and the cost differential depends on a wide range of variables such as access to ports and roads, local labour availability, etc. Post Brexit, in Ireland there was a reduction in the use of pre-fabricated concrete and timber elements as many of these were sourced from Britain. But companies invested in on-site fabrication methods, which have proven equally good, even with many building parts now being imported directly from France or Germany instead.

   In a broader sense, the construction industry is far behind most other industries in achieving productivity gains. Over time, it will probably be essential to invest in pre-fabrication as labour shortages will lead to a need for higher productivity. Probably the prime reason there has always been a reluctance by the construction industry to invest heavily in capital-intensive prefabrication methods is the highly cyclical nature of property development. Relatively low productivity, labour intensive methods of construction allow for much greater flexibility over time, which has made them more ‘efficient’ in terms of profitability over time.

   I suspect that one reason why Swedish companies lead the way with prefabrication is that the Swedish government has always been far more active in underpinning the construction industry during recessions, which has given far more scope for companies to invest over 15-20 year investment cycles.

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   1. Adam1 January 2, 2026 at 9:47 am

      Interesting. In the US it’s generally estimated that pre-fab homes are cheaper to build, but there are limited companies capable of meeting the supply and as with everything in the US anymore there is a ton of monopoly concentration in the stick building side of construction. Small time builders are a rarity anymore and they have to get supply from monopoly businesses.

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      1. PlutoniumKun January 2, 2026 at 10:41 am

         I suspect they are only cheaper if you take account of much lower build quality. And thats before you get into longer term maintenance costs, many traditional prefabs have very poor lifespans.

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         1. Polar Socialist January 2, 2026 at 1:07 pm

            Nordic countries are likely to be an exception, as the common sense here is that prefabs are cheaper even in the long term. A big reason being that the construction season is so darn short in-situ will almost certainly get wet and/or cold before properly covered. Given the climate, it’s the quality of the groundwork that plays a big part in the lifetime of the house, and it’s usually done by third party professionals for both types of houses.

            Also QC tends to be better at factories, and the manufacturers know by now how to design easily maintainable prefabs.

            At least in my corned of the globe it has been almost a standard for a young couple (outside of the big cities) to get a prefab as their first new home (many municipalities offer long, cheap land leases for young people with kids) which sort of means that the demand for prefabs is somewhat independent of economic ups and downs.

            Maybe worth mentioning is that many of the prefabs sold here are actually log houses, so they are technically build in-situ, even if from pre-fabricated materials. Which, I guess, explains the local term “from long timbers” to mean an actual in-situ construction.

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            1. PlutoniumKun January 3, 2026 at 5:30 am

               Ah yes, climate matters too, although of course much of the US has Scandinavian style long cold winters. Climate matters in other ways too, there have been issues with pre-fabs in Ireland from Germany. German architects assume rain comes from the sky, whereas all Irish home owners know Irish rain comes at high speed from all directions.

               High quality pre-fabs as starter homes on pre-prepared sites is an excellent housing solution, I wish it was adopted here, but for all sorts of reasons (mostly relating to greed and stupidity), its never been used to any scale in Ireland or the UK. It also should be said that for very good reasons, national construction industries can be very conservative. There are also historic and cultural reasons why certain industries do what they do – the Japanese love of very flimsy pre fabs seems to have arisen from post war necessity along with an assumption that every home has a built in life limit.

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         2. Cian January 2, 2026 at 2:20 pm

            That’s not been the experience of people I’ve known who had pre-fab houses in Sweden/Germany.

            The quality of housing generally in the US, at least mass housing of the kind built by national chains, is very low imho. It’s kind of shocking what they are allowed to get away with.

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            1. PlutoniumKun January 3, 2026 at 5:35 am

               I was referring specifically to US prefabs, plus the older style from the mid-20th Century.

               I can’f find a link right now, but some years back there was a study on the use of pre-fabs in Irish schools. From memory, they cost about 25% less to build, but in terms of annualised cost, they proved much more expensive within just 2-5 years, due to very high energy use and maintenance issues. But once in place they were often kept a very long time. They only recently removed the prefabs from the primary school I attended. I still have the scar on my lip from when I slipped on the crude breeze block step into the classroom.

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         3. skippy January 3, 2026 at 3:09 am

            Good quality Russian new builds make everything in the EU a joke.

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   2. CanCyn January 2, 2026 at 11:08 am

      I do wonder about looking beyond profits and productivity towards workers and the environment, something not addressed in the article. I’m guessing those Swedish and German pre-fab factories have well-paid, unionized workers. They are not exposed to the elements when they work. I know some carpenters who are very happy to get a contract for trim and doors in a high rise build because of the more comfortable working conditions (as opposed to building house frames on site). And it is my understanding that pre-fab factories deal better with waste than on site builds. On site dumpsters are filled with trim and ends and many things that could be used o recycled during a factory process. The repeated design means manufacturing processes can be designed to cause less waste.

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   3. Jason January 3, 2026 at 5:56 am

      You don’t even have to build the prefab in the US anymore. See Inside China Business’s video on homes shipped over to the US from China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1whWppZxoY

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5. Wukchumni January 2, 2026 at 8:37 am

   Things are falling apart: where to look for leadership? Ann Pettifor
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~

   The political criteria all of my life has been that typically the voting public loves a rich candidate, the more wealth he has (yeah I know about Nancy, but she’s an outlier) and can accrue while in office has allowed them to worm their way into our hearts and minds, for if we only tried harder, we too could accumulate enough wealth to sustain 50 families, but never actually do that.

   Trump was largely elected by constantly showing off the trappings of a wealthy person, and if I only had a buck for every time he’s mentioned how rich he is, why i’d have around $1776 coming my way.

   But you get the feeling this is going to change rather all of the sudden, a backlash against those who won the game because they ended up with the most stuff, if they weighed 847 pounds you’d call them the fattest person in the world, but they have $847 million-so for now they’re greatly respected, really for no reason other than accumulation of stuff, 1’s & 0’s.

   I saw your pithy little 237 foot power yachts in Cabo last week, about 6 of them like so many peacocks on full display, 2 of them had helicopters on deck. You’re not going to be hard to find.

   New leadership will veer far away from money’d shores, as the very noticeable trappings of the greedy archetype once so loved by their peers and admired by underlings, traps them.

   Leading the charge of course is the guy who has repeatedly told us how rich he is…

   Where does this new leadership based on merit-not money, come from though?

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   1. Adam1 January 2, 2026 at 9:49 am

      Yeah I’m starting to get the feeling a growing number of people are starting to realize that all those super rich people are that way not because of genius, but because they have more directly do to everyone else having less.

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   2. Mikel January 2, 2026 at 12:00 pm

      “Leading the charge of course is the guy who has repeatedly told us how rich he is…”

      A blast from the past. Blurry images, but well-known figures:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yqk68KtnEWU/
      Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous (1990)

      “the world’s glitziest casino”

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6. .Tom January 2, 2026 at 8:39 am

   Starting this year juries in Scotland can no longer give a verdict of not proven. I don’t see much reason to allow juries to choose between not guilty and not proven if they are legally equivalent acquittals so it makes sense that parliament made this change for 2026. But I found the history interesting. For a long time Scottish juries were required to decide if the prosecution had proven its case or not while in England they decide if the defendant is guilty or not. I suppose there isn’t much practical difference for the defendant. But as a juror I think I could be on a much more secure epistemological footing saying the prosecution proved its case or not that the defendant is guilty or not. I need only law and the information presented in court to judge the former but I don’t see how I could ever really know a defendant’s guilt.

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   1. Adam1 January 2, 2026 at 9:51 am

      A true and great observation.

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   2. Richard The Third January 2, 2026 at 1:21 pm

      My understanding is that in England the jury is obliged to return a ‘guilty’ verdict when the prosecution has ‘proven’ its case to them ‘beyond reasonable doubt’. Otherwise it’s ‘not guilty’ as an obligation, even if the defence has determined not to make their case to the court, as is their right in law. Three very important little words.

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      1. .Tom January 2, 2026 at 9:17 pm

         Yes. Practically and legally I think it’s equivalent. I was just struck by the difference between the concepts of proven versus guilty, which seems profound to me.

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7. The Rev Kev January 2, 2026 at 8:43 am

   “Did CIA’s Secret Aiding of Ukraine’s Refinery Strikes Do More Harm to Ukraine Than Russia?”

   I think that the Russians have successfully boxed the Trump regime in. After the assassination attempt on Putin’s life, the CIA and the NSA were quick out the gates to say that it never happened. Trump, through gullibility or perhaps it would give him that mythical leverage over Putin, went along with it. But now the head of the GRU has just handed over a flight controller that had the coordinates of Putin’s villa coded in. I note that is was handed over to Pentagon representatives rather than US spooks. Trump will receive this package with all the enthusiasm of a porch pirate picking up a parcel dripping purple paint. So what does he do now? Confirm that the Russians were right or will he be still slinging the CIA/NSA spiel? If he does the later, then negotiating with Russia will become a whole lot tougher. And you have to remember that Trump himself was an assassination attempt casualty who came within an inch of pushing up the daisies so he should be sympathetic to Putin’s story.

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   1. gf January 2, 2026 at 10:52 am

      You are over thinking this.

      Trump is a neocon through and through. There will never be any real negotiations.

      If Iran goes down Russia will follow, maybe not now maybe 10 years from now.

      If Russia does not completely liquidate Ukolandia, Ukolandia will be Israelified and
      have the equivalent of the Israel lobby in another decade.

      The west will catch up in cheap missiles and drones in that time.

      No NATO membership required. Get Ukolandia nucs like Israel and wait them out.

      I really do not see the Empire losing on any front at this point.

      The countervailing point maybe the continued corruption and self degradation of the west.

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      1. ChrisFromGA January 2, 2026 at 11:55 am

         You’re way to pessimistic, IMO.

         It took the West 14 years to kick Assad out, and he lost control over all the resource-rich parts of Syria.

         Iran is much bigger, and has more natural resources it controls (gas, oil) and can export. No doubt the sanctions are having an effect, but that may be the proverbial last round at the bar before closing time. Crypto, gold, and BRICS are ending the sanctions party. Modi already proved that you can’t play that game anymore when he dissed TACO’s attempts to get him stop buying Russian oil.

         The empire doesn’t have 10 more years to wait. Which might be why we’re living in such dangerous times.

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         1. gf January 2, 2026 at 5:14 pm

            I hope i am too pessimistic. But after Obama bailed out FIRE in 08,09.

            I have been surprised to the down side by the western ruling class and MSM ever since, on almost every important issue.

            So as a new years resolution I have decided to remove all nuance from myself.
            2025 killed all vestiges nuance.

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      2. ilsm January 2, 2026 at 2:45 pm

         See the Houthi in Yemen, they have not been defeated in the 1960s when Nassau invaded and walked away.

         Yeah, US is not Egypt, it is 7000 miles over extended.

         Between IIRGC , Quds and Shia militia in Iran. Not to mention Hizbolah, and hangers in Syria.

         US Israel are over reaching not including Russia and China interests.

         US lost a lot of sym0athetic agents from the 12 day war attempted decapitation

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   2. Random January 2, 2026 at 11:33 am

      It just doesn’t matter.
      US can just ignore it and pretend it never happened and the media will make sure that’s the narrative.
      Russia can escalate but until it starts materially harming US interests no one in the US will care.

      Attrition until Ukraine collapses or escalation until Russia starts sinking American shipping (or something similar).

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8. stukuls January 2, 2026 at 9:04 am

   One thing never mentioned I feel is that the architectural essthetic of the is homes in Sweden is terrible having stayed in Stockholm outer ring. Reminded me of my family in Soviet Latvia. American design is worse. Not sure why these builders can not build styles close to teh regions they are building? I built my own house based on the area of New York State I bought land in. It’s not hard. Does not cost much more I know that for a fact. Locals all asked me if I redid a house or old school house. I feel this is so ver looked I am pressed to mat=ybe start a blog. Don’t get me started about teh horrors of new builds any where

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   1. amfortas January 2, 2026 at 3:48 pm

      yeah. i built mine…with my own methods derived from building tree houses in the woods when i was a kid: post and lentel, but in a grander, more sophisticated, scale(ie: bigger,lol…25′ spans)
      my 2600 sq ft house(not counting stoa porch and wood porch and little greenhouse) cost us 4 years of work and tax returns(eitc)…plus a lil more from here or there.
      under $30k.
      roof sucks, but thats on me.
      wilderness bar…much more backwoods black folks bbq/juke joint in style…cost maybe a sixth of that…with better roof(because i learn).
      no permits…nobody frelled with me, at all(besides mom’s incessant bitching, of course)
      (both structures have no septic, just composting toilets(due to the narowness of my side of the place)…built to state of texas regs, since county didnt contemplate such things…so i wasnt even required to inform them.
      when mom dies, and with her stepdad’s disabled vet exemption, i expect to have a row with the property tax people…but i kept all the rcpts and am well established as not worth their efforts…due to intransigence and a flair for the dramatic protest that gets the whole population justa waggin their tongues.(last tax assessor(whom i liked) said there was a note on my file: essentially, “PITA”)

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9. ilsm January 2, 2026 at 9:20 am

   Those drones flying around Russia. US involvement is a direct part of the “missions”.

   The four gold stripe US officer appears to be coast guard. The Army officer behind is in the Army WW II retro uniform.

   The guidance gear returned to US was programmed by US personnel to receive classified/protected highly accurate GPS support from US’ constellation.

   That programming is done with specially protected and certified classified equipment to handle the navigation control secrets! That equipment is only worked by US personnel. Since CIA has a fleet of long-range drones CIA personnel are likely cleared.

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   1. redrum January 2, 2026 at 10:36 am

      The guidance gear returned to the US was not special-highly-accurate-thingamajig, but off-the-shelf stuff (Arduino like). What USA provided are air defense locations, so that drones can try to go around them, and other things that goe without saying (money, etc.). No “specially protected and certified classified equipment to handle the navigation control secrets” in this low-budget endeavour.

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      1. redrum January 2, 2026 at 10:54 am

         Sorry for the double post. I’ve just seen marking on the board. It’s this one:
         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHnX-iwQI8U
         MATEKSYS H743-WING.

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      2. ilsm January 2, 2026 at 2:50 pm

         You presume the classified GPS requires different antenna and R/T…. Not logical.

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         1. redrum January 2, 2026 at 3:14 pm

            I don’t presume anything. I have professional experience with GPS. This is not stuff from Tom Clacy’s book, but garage engineering. Check out the video in my second post, or paste the model designation into Amazon and get one for $149.99. :)

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10. The Rev Kev January 2, 2026 at 9:26 am

    “Chinese Cargo Ship Converted To Launch Advanced Combat Drones Emerges”

    Looks like the Chinese are doing a bit of advanced thinking. They see how countries like the US seize Russian, Iranian, Venezuelan, etc. ships on the high seas whenever they want. But when it comes time to take on China, what then? Are you going to have boarding teams aboard helicopters fly to a Chinese ship to board and seize it, only to have the sides of containers fly open to reveal CIWS guns, combat drones being launched, teams with manpads, Chinese Marines and other weapons? You would only need to add a few “specialized” containers be loaded aboard each ship to make them boarding proof.

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    1. Adam1 January 2, 2026 at 9:57 am

       The Chinese are not dumb for sure. At this point I’m surprised there isn’t more “armed neutrality” going on on the high seas.

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    2. Karen January 2, 2026 at 2:53 pm

       What Venezuela should do is put a big, beautiful bomb in one of the tanks of a sanctioned tanker. Then Trump seizes it and moves his ill-gotten booty into a US harbor, say for example Houston. Then when Trumps starts unloading the stolen goods the bomb triggered by a float when the oil level drops a few feet delivers Trump’s oil to the surface of the harbor and the ship to the bottom of the harbor.

       He might think twice about pirating other nation’s oil after that.

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    3. LifelongLib January 2, 2026 at 3:21 pm

       Apparently this is not an entirely new idea. Per trusty Wikipedia:

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drone_carrier

       Iran built one a while ago that got some publicity.

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       1. amfortas January 2, 2026 at 3:52 pm

          track 6 of my mind has had “scud in a bucket” repeating ever since i saw that story.

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11. ilsm January 2, 2026 at 9:39 am

    How important is the China market to NVDA’s stock rising?

    Conflicting information out in the past week or so.

    Last week article where China is seeking independence in its chip supply chain. Another about China entering the market fo 3 nanometer chips.

    This week, NVDA has 700k H200 inventory to ship to China, and above NVDA chips are “only” 18% cheaper than “gray’ market.

    A lot of salt needed to keep up with NVDA pitches.

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12. The Rev Kev January 2, 2026 at 9:47 am

    ” Venezuela Deploys Combat Tested Iranian Long Range Strike Drones to Respond to U.S. Military Buildup”

    A coupla days ago I saw an Air Force base near Venezuela on the TV news. You had alone three lines of F-35s lined up by the runway and it occurred to me that all you would need would be a WW2 era fighter to strafe and bomb them and suddenly tens of billions of dollars would go up in smoke and the US crippled in this region. If Trump attacks that country, I’m sure that the Russians and the Chinese would obligingly supply real time targeting data.

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13. The Rev Kev January 2, 2026 at 10:03 am

    ‘SzabadonMagyarul 🇬🇧🇭🇺🇺🇦🇪🇺
    @SzabadonMagyar
    Peter Magyar, a main opposition figure, addressed the nation and left a chilling message on New Year’s Eve, just 100 days before the general election in Hungary 🇭🇺’

    That Peter Magyar sounds like a nasty piece of work and I am sure that the globalists would welcome him winning. But here, there seems to be a lot of projection going on with indications of what he is planning to do during the elections. And he came out and threatened everyone that says that he did not win the election so I would not be surprised to see Orban arrested for treason or something after the elections. If you thought that the elections in Romania and Moldova were something, just wait to see what will happen if he actually wins.

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    1. Wukchumni January 2, 2026 at 10:54 am

       What a name!

       It’d be as if Joe American was running for the Presidency

       Full Disclosure: I’m approx 49.9862465% Magyar, all on my mother’s side.

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    2. AG January 2, 2026 at 7:20 pm

       Orbán is well respected by a critical mass of Hungarians. Whether or not I personally regard him as an opportunistic egotist who – as far as I read – briefly before the Wall came down – had a scholarship with the Soros Foundation of all people – on EU and intern. level managed to play the cards well which that small country has.

       For now I wouldn´t underestimate the government. They have been in power long enough to withstand some earthquake. Also keep in mind: He did everything EU needed him to do to keep the refugees out of EU heartland.

       That was his main function for any EU Commission and that he did very well.
       Which is the truly darkest of stories in this odd relationship of quid-pro-quo which EU legacy media have completely ignored and thus made themselves complicit in all those petty crimes they like to attach to bad bad Orbán.

       If you want to know how much EU is indebted to Orbán´s people look at Budapest 2000 and now. Berlin looks like shit in comparison.

       So maybe the Magyar Magyar thing is just a play to remind Orbán he is not almighty (re: Russia?).
       We´ll see. I lack serious Hungarian sources to go beyond my speculation.

       Reply ↓
14. Mikel January 2, 2026 at 10:10 am

    Does Manufacturing Matter? – ChinaTalk

    “Exploring these themes will be a focus of our coverage in 2026. Look out for essay contests coming in the next few weeks on this theme. Leave in the comments your ideas for what our first prompts should be!”

    I stopped right there. (Although I want to ask it to open the pod doors)
    I’ll expect nothing more than the usual neoliberal economic dogmas.

    I’ll wait to hear about any surprises to the contrary.

    Reply ↓
15. Carolinian January 2, 2026 at 10:22 am

    Re Construction Physics–he concludes that the Swedish heavy use of manufactured housing isn’t cheaper except perhaps for some apartment buildings and may be more about other factors. For example here’s suggesting that the weather there may be more conducive to building modules inside a factory rather than out in the open.

    Of course here in the one time poor relation South we know all about manufactured housing in the form of mobile homes. These were cheap buy and cheaply made and sometimes deadly in a fire or tornado.

    Eventually more deluxe versions appeared and there’s an interesting new housing development near our airport that seems to consist of manufactured housing with shingle roofs on small lots with normal services. It’s nowhere near the mansionette dwellers who might object.

    Reply ↓
16. upstater January 2, 2026 at 10:23 am

    Uh-oh… there’s that abundance word!

    Mamdani Lays Out Agenda of ‘Affordability and Abundance’ on First Day in Office NYT

    Interesting he used that word.

    Reply ↓
    1. Historicality January 2, 2026 at 2:05 pm

       Mamdani cautionary tale as related from a Romanian.
       There may not be as much latitude at the city level as there was at the country level.

       Reply ↓
17. Jason Boxman January 2, 2026 at 10:31 am

    I guess I’m not signed in on here, to read AJ’s thread on X, the unroll

    https://twitter-thread.com/t/2006789746195050783

    Reply ↓
    1. nyleta January 2, 2026 at 2:54 pm

       Scuttlebutt is that Covid toe is making a comeback, last seen in quantity in 2020 so maybe Cicada is a keeper.

       Reply ↓
18. Jason Boxman January 2, 2026 at 10:50 am

    After Watergate, the Presidency Was Tamed. Trump Is Unleashing It. (NY Times via archive)

    A power-hungry president had twisted the government into a tool for his personal political benefit. His aides kept an “enemies list” of opponents to be punished. His cronies ran the Justice Department and he made puppets of other agencies that were meant to be independent. Corporations that wanted favorable treatment from the White House were pressured to make illegal contributions to the president’s political coffers.

    As revelations of rot in the Nixon administration tumbled out through the 1970s, Senator Lawton Chiles, Democrat of Florida, captured the alarm of the Watergate era: “Nothing will bring the Republic to its knees so quickly as a bone-deep mistrust of the government by its own people,” he said. “We have seen other democracies fall within our own lifetime. Fall through internal corruption rather than outside invasion.”

    Hilariously quotes John Yoo, which NY Times readers likely already long forgot, and is introduced as

    a Berkeley law school professor and veteran of the George W. Bush Justice Department who is a critic of post-Watergate constraints on the presidency, nonetheless acknowledges that weakening those protections can cut two ways.

    and says

    “Every time you pull down one of them, you pull down one of those meant to control presidential morality,” Mr. Yoo said.

    LOL.

    What would have curbed president power would have been prosecution of Nixon. Other “democracies” have done this, literally just very very recently.

    Reply ↓
    1. jsn January 2, 2026 at 1:22 pm

       “Other “democracies”” suggest you might think we might be one.

       I think the whole Kennedy thing fixed that, and Nixon was just part of the wake.

       Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev January 2, 2026 at 6:36 pm

       John Yoo? The one that told the Bush regime that they could torture to their heart’s content. That John Yoo? The guy should be in a prison cell or at the very least disbarred from practicing law and kicked out of his teaching job at Berkley.

       Reply ↓
19. AG January 2, 2026 at 10:55 am

    re: Bulgaria EU

    brief comment by German leftwing daily JUNGE WELT

    Everything under control
    Bulgaria joins the Eurozone
    https://archive.is/CChHz

    I met 3 Bulgarians in my whole life. All of them were production designers, one working for the stage, the other two movies. And completely unrelated acquaintances Odd…

    Reply ↓
    1. Kouros January 2, 2026 at 5:28 pm

       I am waiting for OIFVet to comment.

       Reply ↓
       1. AG January 2, 2026 at 7:09 pm

          yep!

          Reply ↓
20. DJG, Reality Czar January 2, 2026 at 11:01 am

    On knowing what is happening in Iran.

    Let us not forget that the information channels these days are brimming with lies, bullshit, and propaganda.

    The problem for the “West” in understanding Iran is the blind rage that both the U.S. government and the Israeli government have clung to for years. It is irrational.

    In any society of great age, with a distinguished history of writing, science, and technology, the influence of lightweights like the U.S. chattering classes and Lindsey Graham wannabees and the Israelis and their religio-crotch-scratching antics is limited.

    Heck, Persian civilization is at least three thousand year old, and it may be five thousand years old if one considers the Elamites.

    Living as I do in Italy, with its three thousand years of more or less recorded civilization, and having as our cousins the Greeks with their three thousand years plus another two thousand if we factor in the Minoans on Crete, there are cultural and societal issues going on that the CIA and Israel’s various spies don’t have influence on.

    It’s like saying that the U.S. of A. and Israel are forcing political changes in China. Yeah, sure they are.

    So I will withhold judgment for a while. The Iranian populace has many legitimate grievances. The Iranian system has ossified and corrupted. The U. S. of A. was only too happy with the disastrous human-rights situation under the Shah, so let’s *not* get all “liberators will be met with bastani”-ish. Nor should we expect the Iranians to want to turn Iran into one more outpost exploited by the West, with shopping centers, like the UAE.

    Consider the mess of Syria. Consider that bizarro Nobel prize lady of Venezuela. The Iranian populace is fully aware of what will happen to them if Tony Blair shows up with some Board of Post-Theocracy.

    Yet the Iranians are in the streets. Respect.

    Reply ↓
    1. Aurelien January 2, 2026 at 12:46 pm

       Interesting article in Unherd today by a long-time Iran observer. In spite of the title, it’s worth reading for the background, notably on the water crisis, and on the successive waves of demonstrations that have shaken Iran since 2009, none of which have anything to do with the US or Israel.
       As I understand it, the argument is that a serious US attack on Iran might have the side-effect of shaking the regime sufficiently to enable popular anger to bring it down, rather than that anger being directed, as it has so far been, against the US. In effect, the US would be the unwitting agent of political change. The problem of course is that, as the article acknowledges, there is no organised ideological opposition to the regime, as there was to the Shah. In 1979, the Islamists had been working patiently away for decades, and forces on the other end of the spectrum, like the MEK, were also well organised. There was also a strong civil society. That’s not true today: there’s a lot of justifiable public anger, but no obvious alternative to the regime around which to rally. If the regime goes down, the most likely result will be chaos and violence. But then as regimes under threat have known through history, even if you are weak, it doesn’t matter so long as your opponents are even weaker.

       Reply ↓
       1. AG January 2, 2026 at 7:08 pm

          Thanks!

          p.s. merely anecdotal, whenever I spoke to working-class Iranians who live in Germany (most emigrés one will meet as non-Iranian are intelletcuals though) but return for holidays, they regard Western news on Iran as not noteworthy and laugh it away. It´s very pragmatic and realistic. There seem to be the news outlets and then there is what people who seldomly read those, truly think and who are the huge majority. Everyday life in any form of government if it exists long enough will develop its own culture. Not that I wanna compare in any way: But I am trying to remind people, in Nazi Germany there were millions of love stories, weddings, parties, dancing, babies born, books written and read every day. Life was happening. To bring it down it needed 28M dead Soviets.

          Reply ↓
    2. Vincent January 2, 2026 at 1:14 pm

       DJG, Reality Czar, said:

       “Let us not forget that the information channels these days are brimming with lies, bullshit, and propaganda.”

       I will second that, and point out the everything one reads on the internet
       should be read with that in the forefront of one’s mind.

       Thank you.

       Reply ↓
21. raspberry jam January 2, 2026 at 11:38 am

    Kahanism Is Alive in the Ben-Gvir Police, and Israel’s Gatekeepers May Have Woken Up Too Late | HaAretz | Archive

    quotes:

    “Over the past three years, Ben-Gvir has brought the police near the point of no return. Today, every officer knows that his or her advancement depends on adhering to the minister’s personal and political interests. You must specialize in protecting criminal settlers and well-connected suspects, and be good at hunting down the enemies of the state.”

    and

    “Ben-Gvir remaining in office violates governmental ethics infinitely more than the presence of a corrupt minister at a cabinet meeting. The court may be bound to self-restraint in everything concerning the appointing and firing of cabinet members, but the justices are obligated to protect democracy.

    When the petition to the High Court to remove Ben-Gvir was denied when the current government was formed, the wording cited his criminal history and dark views. Supreme Court President Isaac Amit wrote: “The assumption that the police’s independence will be preserved is adequate to dampen the fear and the damage to the public’s trust.” This assumption has been shattered by reality. A political police force like the one being created in Israel is a clear sign of totalitarianism.

    If there are still Supreme Court justices who see defending the crumbling foundations of Israel’s government as their role, they must issue an order against Ben-Gvir remaining in his position, and then they must order Netanyahu to fire him.”

    related link: Who was Meir Kahane, and Why His Racist Legacy Is Relevant Again

    quote from the second link (Otzma Yehudit is Ben Gvir’s party, Religious Zionism is Smotrich’s):

    As the Otzma Yehudit party has drawn increasingly close to entering the Knesset in recent years – a goal it finally attained this week as part of a radical alliance with the innocuous-sounding Religious Zionism – readers may have become accustomed to seeing it described as “Kahanist.”

    But those who came of age following the 1990 death of the man who spawned that racist ideology, Rabbi Meir Kahane, may have only a vague sense of what its namesake stood for and why his continuing influence is so widely regarded as dangerous.

    The Kahanist vision is one that sees violence and revenge as Jewish religious imperatives, and Israel as not being worthy of existing unless it expunges the non-Jews from its midst and its Jews commit to living Torah-observant lives.

    Reply ↓
22. fjallstrom January 2, 2026 at 11:41 am

    Been reading Brad Deveroux’ blog on various historical topics and came across this on the topic of courts in ancient Greece.

    We see a hint of this actually in how the same system was viewed in oligarchies. Matthew Simonton notes (op. cit.) that oligarchies generally kept the juries of cases limited to their members of the oligarchic elite (Arist. Pol. 4.1301a), but they also worked to suppress the expression of rivalries within the oligarchy through the courts. Allowing elite disputes to run regularly through the courts, with the public spectacle that implied, could fatally weaken the oligarchy. Aristotle seems to imply (e.g. Arist. Pol. 2.1272b) that instead oligarchies policed their own members extra-judicially, with factions and conspiracies, while using the courts to police the general populace.

    This got me thinking about the Epstein revelations, and all the important people in his orbit. Also how he wasn’t convicted but died before trial, possibly as the result of a conspiracy.

    And to be more general, why the party in power in the US – as a rule – doesn’t prosecute the crimes of the other party, but prefer to accuse, change faction in power and let bygones be bygones.

    Just to be clear, Deveroux isn’t making such an simile, and as a US academic in good standing would probably protest the usage. But I think the glove fits.

    Reply ↓
    1. AG January 2, 2026 at 8:22 pm

       Good point.

       Which would confirm my own belief that despite all the bluster and redderick where it matters most our modern societies still operate on clan-level. In every possible realm.

       The “nation” has been championed so much by elites because it appears to be the largest possible container for this kind of cohesive idea.

       EU´s staggering bureaucratic body is a hyperbole of that clan concept.

       p.s. on this last association: why does administrative structure of this size fail in Europe but not in China, or India too I assume…

       Reply ↓
23. Mark Gisleson January 2, 2026 at 11:42 am

    If you want me to distrust you, write an article calling out Somali fraud as a distraction from [fill in the blank].

    It would not surprise me to learn that most Twin Citians never saw any of the fraud as the Somalians (unlike previous refugee populations I worked with in the metro area) have remained concentrated in the central part of the city (other populations began moving to the burbs just as fast as they could afford to).

    The Somali refugee population is distinctly different from the Hmong, Karen, Eritreans,Tigreans etc in Minnesota. They have little interest in assimilation and if asked most will tell you they would prefer to return to Somalia when it becomes safe.

    Trump’s not working out so well, but I’d love to see a show of hands to find out how many NC readers think President Harris would have made anything better. /disgruntled rant

    Reply ↓
    1. ibaien January 2, 2026 at 12:50 pm

       one of the ur-stories of human history is “leaving your home to cross the dark seas, seeking fortune and stability so that one day you can return and die wealthy, surrounded by your family and the sights and sounds of where you always belonged”. i am utterly unsure why anyone is scandalized by this, and i assure you that if america were as unstable as somalia there would be ‘little americas’ all over the world with hustlers doing everything they could to send money home. of all the great swindles of the 21st century being perpetrated by the oligarchs, this penny-ante shit just doesn’t rate.

       Reply ↓
       1. ISL January 3, 2026 at 5:18 am

          Pentagon lost $21 trillion and never passed an audit.
          Squirrel!

          Reply ↓
    2. Wukchumni January 2, 2026 at 2:34 pm

       Ah, the what ifs, what could’ve beens if Kamala was in Camelot?

       Think of all the cackle we missed out on, not to mention run-on sentences in dire need of croutons (makes eye contact with garçon) of wisdom to make the word salad work.

       Reply ↓
       1. ChrisFromGA January 2, 2026 at 3:55 pm

          I do miss her laugh. Perhaps we have Kamalastalgia?

          Reply ↓
          1. AG January 2, 2026 at 8:31 pm

             Ha!
             I said it early 2024, her laugh was the only selling point. But it was a real distinct one, respect.
             Think she secretly was training that laugh(ter) in front of the mirror? Obama sure did exercise his “walking style off and onto stage”. Trump his grin. Biden his smirk. Bush his eyebrows raised.

             Reply ↓
    3. amfortas January 2, 2026 at 4:10 pm

       the Minnesota Somali scandal is, to my mind, a fluffy stuffed animal, soaked in lard, to get the maga people on board with israhell attempting to take over “somaliland”.

       i wouldnt be surprised if the long term anti- Rep. Omar yelling has been a part of this long term goal.
       mosad/hasbara/et alia has form.

       Reply ↓
       1. Mark Gisleson January 2, 2026 at 7:31 pm

          I’ve learned a lot more since this morning from a friend who was a direct eyewitness to some of the goings on. I don’t want to say more so as to avoid accidentally identifying them but this is someone who was employed by a crooked agency and not some little old lady who lived across the street from a fake daycare.

          I’m doubling down on this one: everyone will be shocked at how deep this goes, and how long it’s been going on.

          The Star Tribune editorialized that all of this is being handled properly. Their reasoning talks around the Paul Bunyan sized elephant in the state. [archive.ph] If you knew nothing about this scandal before reading this editorial, you would have no clue as to the scope or seriousness of what has already been revealed.

          If nothing else, you should take note of the fact that acting US Attorney Thompson could not stop smirking as he said that $9 billion had been grifted for sure, possibly as much as $18 billion in a state of six million people.

          Btw, they just announced one billion dollars in property tax increases for next year. Go figure.

          Reply ↓
24. Jason Boxman January 2, 2026 at 3:35 pm

    Surprise.

    In 2000, a landmark study claimed to set the record straight on glyphosate, a contentious weedkiller used on hundreds of millions of acres of farmland. The paper found that the chemical, the active ingredient in Roundup, wasn’t a human health risk despite evidence of a cancer link.

    Last month, the study was retracted by the scientific journal that published it a quarter century ago, setting off a crisis of confidence in the science behind a weedkiller that has become the backbone of American food production. It is used on soybeans, corn and wheat, on specialty crops like almonds, and on cotton and in home gardens.

    A Study Is Retracted, Renewing Concerns About the Weedkiller Roundup (NY Times)

    Reply ↓
25. Carolinian January 2, 2026 at 3:51 pm

    That’s a good Cory Doctorow until he lapses into his Tommy Friedman explains it all mode and he does go on at length.

    The prob is his good guy/bad guy frame which assumes that US oligarchs forced good guy overseas oligarchs to accept anti circumvention laws as though they aren’t also oligarchs. For the wealthy property rights are the whole ball of wax.

    Meanwhile defeating this big brother tendency means that these draconian ip laws are widely ignored and difficult to enforce just as speed limits are widely ignored and–these days–not much enforced. No need to repeal toothless laws. Here’s betting the Russians that Doctorow hates got those Deere tractors working pronto.

    Personally I could care less how much money Apple makes off keeping people bound to their products. There are other products. Opening computer world up to a wider public assumes that’s what the public really wants. Meanwhile the people who know about computers are doing what they always have done. Doctorow got this right years ago with his pronouncement “piracy, the obvious choice.” It’s still obvious.

    Reply ↓
26. flora January 2, 2026 at 4:10 pm

    Remember when you hear or read the problem in the US finances is private debt that PE is private debt. / ;)

    From 2 years ago, Gretchen Morgenson talking about PE on Wealthion.

    Gretchen Morgenson: Our Economy Is Being Plundered By Wall Street Elites

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wk07kIwWJfM

    (Pension funds are starting to lose money. Look out, CALPERS. – my comment.)

    Reply ↓
27. upstater January 2, 2026 at 5:27 pm

    Israel using repurposed APCs as car bombs in Gaza (Reuters) to take down high rises and neighborhoods. Such an innovation!

    Reply ↓
    1. sarmaT January 3, 2026 at 7:09 am

       Such an innovation, that it has been done before. In Donbass they were filling MT-LBs with miscellaneous explosives. Long before that, there were tracked demolition charges (Goliath et al.). One does not need much of an innovative spirit in order to put a petard on tracks.

       Reply ↓
28. Alex Cox January 2, 2026 at 5:55 pm

    Re. The beautiful feather star antidote, as a small boy I collected fossil crinods at the beach. They were skinny, stick or vertebrae looking. 120 million years old. I had assumed the crinoid was extinct, and no idea it is so beauteous.

    Reply ↓
29. flora January 2, 2026 at 6:38 pm

    Prof. David Cay Johnston on the Mark Thompson Show. utube, ~36+ minutes

    Big Banks Are Short of Cash: Another Bailout and Recession to Come, Prof. David Cay Johnston

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3uepHkwm3Y

    Prof. Johnston has a very good track record.

    Reply ↓
    1. flora January 2, 2026 at 7:15 pm

       Here’s the link to Prof. Johnson’s article in DC Report.

       Big Banks Enjoy Stealth Bailouts – A DCReport Exclusive

       https://www.dcreport.org/2025/12/29/ny-fed-unlimited-cash-infusions-bank-crisis/

       Reply ↓
30. Lefty Godot January 2, 2026 at 6:54 pm

    The linked Warwick Powell article looking back on Jean Baudrillard’s America is well worth reading. Baudrillard has a wonderful ability to swivel from serious to tongue-in-cheek and back, which makes him more fun to read than some of the other members of the pomo pantheon. He belongs in the trinity with Marshall McLuhan and Walter Ong when it comes to discerning the effects of our media on the populace. I’m not sure if it was linked previously, but Powell’s earlier artcle Liberalism’s Denouement in Europe is also very perceptive in its highlighting of rule by exception. Some highlights from that:

    Financial exclusion through sanctions regimes illustrates this vividly. Individuals and organisations placed on sanctions lists – often without judicial process – are effectively expelled from economic life. Bank accounts are frozen, payment systems denied and employment foreclosed. This is not punishment following conviction; it is preventive incapacitation. One remains legally free, yet materially excluded.

    Speech follows a similar pattern. Expression is rarely banned outright, though there is some inching in that direction. Instead, it is algorithmically suppressed, administratively flagged as “disinformation,” demonetised or rendered institutionally illegible. The right to speak survives in abstraction, but its reach and consequence are quietly neutralised.

    This is much like how the 1st and 2nd amendments in the US have been whittled down by reinterpretation, barriers to legal restitution, administrative definitions (of words like “criminal”, “terrorist”, “hate”, etc.). Constitutional measures to change or remove rights are not exercised, instead the rights are dispensed with by fiat through the creation of exceptions and boundary conditions that make their exercise too onerous and fraught with legal and financial risk. And the dissemination of viewpoints and proposals outside of the norms prescribed by the ruling class is delegitimized by the insertion of intermediary authorities with little or no legal standing:

    Regulatory authorities now determine which organisations qualify as legitimate civil society actors, which media outlets are “trusted,” which research bodies are acceptable partners and which narratives are “foreign-influenced.” These classifications carry decisive material consequences – access to funding, platforms and institutional recognition – yet are framed as neutral, technical assessments.

    Warwick Powell and Ian Welsh are two of the favorites I never would’ve encountered without Naked Capitalism. Many thanks!

    Reply ↓
    1. AG January 2, 2026 at 8:38 pm

       On how sanctions affect Jacques Baud´s life a few bits in his latest appearance with Nima.
       He also makes an important point that it´s possible that the entire concept of sanctioning European citizens is illegal as the sanctions were originally devised to protect Europe(eans) from exterior threats.
       https://rumble.com/v73moz8-col.-jacques-baud-is-the-west-finally-waking-up.html?e9s=src_v1_sa%2Csrc_v5_sa_o%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v

       Reply ↓
31. AG January 2, 2026 at 8:17 pm

    re: true AI politics

    THE INTERCEPT interview

    I’s Imperial Agenda
    “Empire of AI” author Karen Hao on how Silicon Valley’s young AI companies parallel colonial empires of old.
    Jan. 2nd 2026
    https://archive.is/NTRTp

    Reply ↓
32. ChrisRUEcon January 3, 2026 at 4:00 am

    “Maduro says Venezuela open to talks with US, remains mum on dock attack” – Al Jazeera

    24 Hours Later …

    “Live: Venezuela accuses US of carrying out attacks in Caracas, other states” – via Al Jazeera

    … if you come for the King, you better not miss. Because if Maduro/PSUV survive this, we might well be talking about a Venezuelan (hypersonic) Missile Crisis come 2030. If nothing else, I hope this gets leaders in the region to wake the family-blog up.

    Reply ↓
    1. hk January 3, 2026 at 4:24 am

       I’m not sure if we can actually go for the “king,” period. It won’t be just Venezuela–we may be on the verge of losing practically the entire Western Hemisphere after this folly (yes, I’m including us in the mix also.)

       Reply ↓
       1. communistmole January 3, 2026 at 4:44 am

          According to Trump the US forces have captured Maduro and his Wife and flown them out of the country.

          Reply ↓
          1. ChrisRUEcon January 3, 2026 at 4:46 am

             Wait, whut?!

             Reply ↓
          2. ChrisRUEcon January 3, 2026 at 4:54 am

             Thanks, communistmole … wow … just … wow

             Reply ↓
          3. .Tom January 3, 2026 at 6:17 am

             How long before they can safely fly María Corina Machado in?

             Reply ↓
             1. Yves Smith January 3, 2026 at 6:26 am

                I have a lot of updates in the Links to launch soon, including the Venezuela defense minister saying they will resist.

                A diplomatic contact says someone he knows personally in Caracas reports that armed mobs are hunting down Americans and killing them.

                Open question is whether the militia blows up the oil wells.

                Reply ↓
       2. ChrisRUEcon January 3, 2026 at 4:45 am

          > I’m not sure if we can actually go for the “king,” period.

          Precisely. What the familyblog is this meant to achieve outside of macho posturing for the few hardcore MAGA fewls still cheering on wasteful wars? Maduro is not going to “step down”.

          Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro has been captured after US conducted ‘large scale strike’ on country

          Well I guess we both learned something today, hk…

          > It won’t be just Venezuela

          Oreshniks on the Orinoco? YJ’s on the Windwards? I think Milei is the only one in South America celebrating this.

          Reply ↓
          1. ChrisFromGA January 3, 2026 at 4:59 am

             And when the Venezuela VP takes office in an orderly way, what is Trumps plan B? Kidnap him, too?

             Reply ↓
             1. ChrisRUEcon January 3, 2026 at 5:07 am

                I am waiting to see who replaces Maduro … see my comment here last year (via NC).

                But TBH, if we’ve gotten this far … in this manner … who’s to say we don’t end up with the Nobel Peace Laureate as new Venezuelan PM?

                Reply ↓
             2. Daniil Adamov January 3, 2026 at 6:07 am

                Her. And she is apparently Jorge Rodriguez’s sister, so that could get interesting.

                Reply ↓
                1. ChrisRUEcon January 3, 2026 at 7:38 am

                   #TIL

                   As I said last year, JR already has a score to settle.

                   Reply ↓
                   1. hk January 3, 2026 at 7:53 am

                      I doubt, without knowing too much about who’s who, Rodriguez is the “successor” necessarily. Things have been thrown so much into chaos that nothing meaningful will be apparent for a while.

                      I think Christmas, 1979, in Kabul, except on the cheap. I hope things turn out better for us than USSR, but it’ll probably be much worse in reality.

                      Reply ↓
          2. hk January 3, 2026 at 6:45 am

             Not the “king” that I meant. we’ll all see how this unravels. Only in video games (and not in good ones) do you get instant wins by taking out the opposing leader. I think Venezuela has just gone from messy to unresolvable. I don’t think Maduro was that capable a leader, unlike Chavez: if things in Caracas and elsewhere have really broken down, as I think they soon will be if not already, we might as well reinstall Maduro ASAP and we’d still be famblogged. Naturally, we are not gonna do that but instead dither and posture.

             Reply ↓
             1. PlutoniumKun January 3, 2026 at 7:44 am

                A couple of weeks ago I was talking to an old friend from Caracas. Her family are academics – they were Chavistas, but dislike Maduro. Like a lot of Venezuelans they combine a leftist ideological dislike of the US combined with a deep love of US culture and a desire to move/travel there. It’s always a mistake to see these countries through a US lens – the primary political splits are between the traditional upper classes with their enablers and the overall population. The mutual hatred is off the charts.

                Her view was that Maduro’s support is very shallow and very few people would be willing to put their life on the line for him. The government is brittle, and there is general discontent with how the economy is run. Maduro’s strongest card has always been the strong dislike and fear Venezuelans have for the alternative, they know full well how bad they are.

                I believe the oil issue is a red herring. Venezuelan crude is nasty and expensive, and it would take many years of investment to increase production. With the likelihood of falling prices over the next few years the industry has little interest in it. This is all about the US playing the old game of ‘do what you are told, and you can prosper, oppose us, get crushed’. It’s crude, but effective geopolitics. Its the flip side of Argentina getting an open US chequebook.

                Reply ↓