Links 1/20/2026

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1. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 7:25 am

   “The Navy spent $13 billion on an aircraft carrier and can’t get the toilets to work”

   Plumbing consultants flow onto the USS Ford state that they are trying to understand what the problem is but say that so far they have nothing to go on.
   1. vao January 20, 2026 at 7:35 am

      If I remember correctly, catapults, arresting gear, and elevators do not function properly either. Competence in designing and building that kind of vessel seems to have withered dramatically.
      1. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 8:02 am

         Being a silly bugger, I would have said that no new system should go on such a ship unless it has been proved to be fully reliable and working. Otherwise you run the risk of having systems failures and expensive retrofits with ships not being capable of being fully deployable. But that is just me.
         1. SufferinSuccotash January 20, 2026 at 10:18 am

            That’s because you really hate America.
            :)
         2. Skip Intro January 20, 2026 at 10:24 am

            One man’s risk is another man’s long-term, cost-plus contract guarantee.
      2. Geoff Dewan January 20, 2026 at 9:18 pm

         Next, stop, sub it out to Chinese contractors.

         It’ll be done in three months for 1/10th the cost.
   2. .human January 20, 2026 at 8:23 am

      That’s what they get for naming it after an un-elected President who had an un-elected vice-president!
   3. ilsm January 20, 2026 at 9:01 am

      USS Chamberpot.

      Saw somewhere: the second Ford class CVN will be nearly twice as late to deliver….. hold commissioning until toilets work.

      On the EM catapult also seen: F-35 C which carries more fuel than A model is too heavy, or uncertified for launch for another reason.
   4. Adam1 January 20, 2026 at 9:09 am

      LOL! When I was a kid (back in the 1980’s) I remember stories of how the DOD spent millions on toilets. Of course the reality was an accounting gimmick to hide where those funds really went. But either way those toilets probably worked and might even still be in use.
      1. LawnDart January 20, 2026 at 11:13 am

         On C130s we had a pee-tube and a can with plastic bags…
         1. ambrit January 20, 2026 at 11:55 am

            The same with B-52. I got that from an actual B-52 flight crewmember.
            I have read that aircrew on military craft have the highest incidence of hemorrhoids among professions.
            Finally, the cheap solution for the problem is for the carrier to install a taffrail or two.
         2. Steven A January 20, 2026 at 8:21 pm

            On the C-47s (I know, dating myself) we had the pee tubes and a butt can served as the “honey bucket,” which the pilot would implore us not to use unless we wanted to clean it.
   5. Samuel Conner January 20, 2026 at 9:19 am

      Perhaps composting toilets could be a temporary work-around. The, um …, output could be filled into planters on less-used parts of the flight deck and used to grow fresh vegetables.
      1. ambrit January 20, 2026 at 11:56 am

         Like in “Mister Roberts.”
         1. Janie January 20, 2026 at 12:53 pm

            Best movie ever. For the younger crowd, a must-watch.
   6. shinola January 20, 2026 at 1:10 pm

      Not to worry about that ship’s toilet problems – it’s all in their heads.
      1. ambrit January 21, 2026 at 5:57 am

         Easy there now…. The taffrail is just back of the Golden Nail.
   7. Es s Ce Tera January 20, 2026 at 1:11 pm

      It doesn’t seem likely that the problem is the poops are too solid, or there’s more poop than expected, it seems more likely they didn’t correctly calculate how much vacuum or compressed air was needed to move poop from one place to another.

      Wouldn’t this have been the same sort of problem solved by the pneumatic tube systems used in offices in the 1950’s and 60’s? And, actually, still used in many hospitals nowadays?

      Assuming Navy engineers know about these systems, what went wrong?
      1. Polar Socialist January 20, 2026 at 3:00 pm

         Here’s a video (youtube.com) where the project lead Capt. Tal Manvel explains the choices made. I think.
      2. rowlf January 20, 2026 at 7:54 pm

         Large Boeing and Airbus airliners use vacuum waste systems. It was found that deposits would build up in the system and end up blocking the system.

         The mitigation has been to flush a bucket of crushed ice and detergent (The Blue Margarita) in every toilet once a week, or your system reliability will go down and you will have to disassemble the plumbing to clear the blockage. Every couple of years some MBA or wanna-be MBA want to delete this maintenance task to save manhours.
   8. Doug Baker January 20, 2026 at 10:43 pm

      The obvious solution is to outsource this to the Chinese. Word has it they know how to build a ship. Yes, they will sabotage it. But they will do it for less money, and it will be sufficient to get our elected officials their bag money.

      You might think that our intelligence agencies have learned how the Chinese flush their toilets and COPY them. I suppose there’s just not enough margin in that.

      If you’ve ever had the gum that tastes like “Smelly Socks”, you know where this is headed. The same company is using poo from rich people to produce Soylent Brown. Comes in a variety of flavors. “Almost Tastes Like a Filet” is one of the most popular. They’re looking for “influencers”.
2. vao January 20, 2026 at 7:31 am

   Regarding “Syria’s military has seized swathes of Kurdish-held territory. Here’s what we know”, I find this a remarkable parallel to what happened to the former SAA/Assad-led forces.

   1) The SAA had fought tenaciously for years, supported by Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, successfully resisted during protracted sieges (e.g. Deir Ez Zor), won difficult and long campaigns (e.g. to retake Aleppo) — and then, after years of stability, collapsed in about a week.

   2) The SDF fought tenaciously for years, supported by the USA, France, and the UK, successfully resisted during protacted sieges (e.g. Kobane), won difficult and long campaigns (e.g. to retake Raqqah) — and now, after years of stability, it seems that it will collapse in about a week.

   If history is any guide, I would not bet on the Al-Jolani-led HTS remaining in power in the medium-term — but for one difference: there are no Syrian contenders any longer. The only opposition that could launch an offensive and overthrow HTS is a foreign, neighbouring power: either Turkey or Israel. I am unsure where this leads strategically, but for HTS just like for the SAA and the SDF, being a proxy seems hardly conducive to survival.
   1. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 7:58 am

      I have not seen a map of the areas taken but I wonder at the phrase ‘Syria’s military has seized swathes of Kurdish-held territory.’ When ISIS was falling apart the Kurds raced south and seized Arab-Syrian land on the eastern banks of the Euphrates river. The only reason that they could do this was because they were being protected by US air power. In addition they seized the Syrian breadbasket as well as the heart of Syrian oilfields. This was why Syria collapsed years later. So I wonder if what is happening is that the Syrians are putting the Kurds back into their box and taking back Syrian land that the Kurds seized for themselves. And the US? Looks like they are selling out the Kurds for a third major time. They just never learn.
   2. Aurelien January 20, 2026 at 8:41 am

      If you’re interested, a very good source is This Week in Northern Syria. The latest (18 January) analysis suggests, probably rightly, that the Kurds did not anticipate the sudden collapse of the Assad regime, and had done no contingency planning for it. They have found themselves in less time than they could have imagined in the position of an obstacle to a peaceful resolution of the internal crisis in Syria, and thus likely to lose foreign support. At the moment, western states are trying very hard to push the factions into compromise whilst still retaining some influence over Al-Shara’a, and the Kurds, for historical reasons, are an obstacle to this. As the (surprisingly good) CNN report says, one of the big problems of the last year has been what to do with the SDF after the fall of Assad. The Kurds want them to become part of the Army but in separate brigades (an Army within and Army if you like.) The government has only offered recruitment on an individual basis. But there are an estimated 100,000 SDF, highly motivated and with combat experience. The main reason the SAA collapsed when it did is that the veterans of the fighting against ISIS had left, and the Army as a whole was massively less capable than it had been up to 2019. What the real capability of the SAA is now compared to the SDF is hard to be sure of. But if necessary the Kurds will go back to guerrilla warfare, and look for support from anyone who wants to give a Sunni-led government in Damascus a hard time. There will be no shortage of offers.
      1. hk January 20, 2026 at 8:54 am

         I’m assuming that’s one of the reasons why al-Golani regime is trying to play nice with Russians? I suspect they’ll have to make nice with more of their erstwhile enemies to eliminate potential sponsors of the Kurds…and we’d be back to where we were with the Assads.
      2. AG January 20, 2026 at 9:43 am

         thanks
         According to JUNGE WELT´s short piece below (I missed this conversation when posting) the situation of the remaining Kurdish fighters is “dire”.
         If the collapse was truly not anticipated by them I wonder how that was possible…
   3. ilsm January 20, 2026 at 9:10 am

      PKK Arab allies defected.

      What the demise of the SDF suggests is US supported Daesh is coming for you even if you were like Daesh a US tool.
      1. Aurelien January 20, 2026 at 11:21 am

         I suspect the reverse is true. We’re moving into that common situation where the political leadership and the “moderates” of a movement decide the war is over, leaving an embittered fringe to continue as best they can. Al-Sahara’a has the support of some but not all of the very amorphous movement he led, and there will be a sizeable number who will not agree to abandon the idea of the Caliphate, even for short-term tactical reasons. We can therefore expect to see breakaway groups proliferating, and fighting their former comrades and joining with the remaining non-HTS fighters. The usual result of this is that the dissenters lose badly (think Ireland in 1921 etc. etc.) and I suspect this is what will happen here. The West is pushing very hard to rebuild a unitary Syria, and is likely to be prepared to intervene on the government side against recalcitrant rebels. The cynical realpolitik argument that some made during the war that ISIS was at least fighting Assad, so military action against them should be limited, by definition no longer applies. They are the nut in the nutcracker, without a capital, without foreign volunteers and without a charismatic leader since the Americans killed Al-Baghdadi in 2019. And I wouldn’t write off the Kurds just yet.
   4. Lefty Godot January 20, 2026 at 12:30 pm

      Dang, Lucy is pulling the football away from the Kurds again. Who could’ve predicted that?
   5. Mikel January 20, 2026 at 4:13 pm

      Whiplash trying to keep up with the Syria chaos.
      Earlier this month, even France and UK were dropping bombs.

      Now this.

      And then there is Lebanon…
3. TimH January 20, 2026 at 7:45 am

   Why Aren’t All the Americans Protesting?

   Well, Kathleen Wallace, partly they are tied up working 18 hour days with 3 part-time jobs, and partly protesters are getting betaen up, arrested, killed…

   Reminds me of the classic middle class complaint that the poors should prepare healthy meals instead of eating junk… when working 18 hour days doesn’t leave enough time to get enough sleep, let alone spend time buying the ingreeds and cooking.
   1. Adam1 January 20, 2026 at 9:06 am

      Agreed, and to add to it things are happening so fast I don’t think reality has set in for most people. And lots just assume the mid-terms will fix everything but that’s under the assumption they actually happen or happen fairly.
      1. t January 20, 2026 at 10:18 am

         the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before.

         Trump says complete nonsense like this all the time, and up until Venezuela, people seem to think we should just wait until he goes away, at the midterms.

         Texas, for one, turned over voter registration information, possibly including full social security numbers, to the DOJ last week. So that’s a good sign for the midterms. If other states have been asked or complied, I haven’t seen it but seems unlikely it’s just Texas.
         1. Yves Smith Post authorJanuary 20, 2026 at 10:30 am

            Too late for most, but this is why getting a Star ID driver’s license was a bad idea. Recall you have to give your SSN to get a Star ID. When you renew your license, they ask if you want to be registered as a voter. The Texas tidbit suggests that the driver’s license bureau affirmatively links the address they have on record to your voter registration, or at least do so in red states obsessed with voter verification. Recall that you can fly w/o Star ID, but you need to use a passport instead.
            1. Expat2uruguay January 20, 2026 at 2:07 pm

               The star ID is Alabama’s version off the Real ID correct? The Real ID that I’m familiar with from the “California Real ID”?
   2. .Tom January 20, 2026 at 10:11 am

      That’s true but I don’t think it’s the biggest difference between now and May-June 2020 when a lot of people were prepared to protest. I think people are much more scared now. There are a number of reasons to be fearful all of which have been well documented, elaborated and discussed here on NC.
   3. Tommy S January 20, 2026 at 10:47 am

      Perhaps also, most have learned ‘protesting’ doesn’t change anything really? That you’re basically asking a rotten economic and political system to change itself by ‘shaming it’….rather than constructing the bottom up power that would force it? That only a minority have made the leap, that the whole political system is the enemy? Which needs a basic roots and organizational effort, that should have started after Iraq invasion…and that many members of Occupy said was going to happen next, but didn’t.
      1. JP January 20, 2026 at 11:48 am

         It depends on critical mass. It worked in the sixties but we are not there yet. I also think Minneapolis is not Fort Sumter. This is probably TACO time as neither house seems very supportive of Trump’s Greenland conquest and he has already backed off the threat of marshall law. The US is a republic so bottom up would mean voting so if congress doesn’t satisfy the people we are back to critical mass. We are close enough to the midterms that most people will wait and see.
         1. Lefty Godot January 20, 2026 at 3:54 pm

            It also requires patience, and having dedicated people on board from the beginning, not just boomers going out for the weekend to wave random signs around and socialize. The National Mobilization to End the War started in 1966 with people like Martin Luther King, Benjamin Spock, and Tom Hayden on board and kept organizing protests through 1969, when they finally disbanded and spawned off smaller organizations that kept protesting till the Paris Peace Accords were signed in 1973. It was a long, long process that did not seem to be having much effect on US leaders until the last year or two (Nixon going to China deflated a lot of the urgency many people felt about it, as well as the draft being shut down). Organizers got arrested, beaten, portrayed on the national TV networks in the beginning as crackpots if not outright traitors, and before the end murdered by National Guard troops. And it was single issue focused. Get the US out of Vietnam, where we didn’t belong. Like today, there was a constellation of other issues that most of the same people believed in: Black Power, legalizing marijuana, eliminating restrictions on consensual sex behaviors outside the Protestant norm, etc. But those were mostly not allowed to cloud the central issue of withdrawing American troops from Vietnam. And in the end it was probably more the alarming loss of military discipline among the troops that convinced leaders to finally end it, not the protests (which maybe were third most influential, the expenses of the whole thing being second).

            Now we don’t have the attention span to even consider spending seven years demonstrating for one single issue (not clouded by all the other culture war crap), while being willing to get beaten and jailed if necessary, and all just to be maybe one of the influences that finally makes our leaders change course—and given how little our leaders and the media care about what the American people think, maybe having it all be for naught.
            1. JP January 20, 2026 at 5:29 pm

               Maybe you forget why Lindon Johnson withdrew from the presidential race. It wasn’t lack of discipline among the troops.
               1. Lefty Godot January 21, 2026 at 6:26 pm

                  And the war went on. LBJ dropping out changed nothing on that score. Now, if Hubird had had the guts to break with LBJ on Vietnam he might have beaten Nixon, but that wasn’t in the cards. So we got four more years of war.
      2. Jonathan Holland Becnel January 20, 2026 at 1:59 pm

         Facts

         And these protests are meant to turn Americans against each other while elevating the dying lib dems.

         They are gonna go to the mat for illegals but won’t lift a finger when Local Grandma gets evicted by her landlord?

         That being said, that creates an opening for American Unity types to organize the neighborhood against the duopoly in favor of something new!
   4. Kurtismayfield January 20, 2026 at 11:53 am

      What will happen if we protest??

      Say I get a million people to march on Washington D.C.. Would Trump change his policies? Or would we be labeled “Leftist radicals supported by Soros.”? Would we even be covered on the news?

      Nothing will happen. You need to hit them where it will be effective.
      1. Mikel January 20, 2026 at 4:23 pm

         “Say I get a million people to march on Washington D.C.”

         Another economic bonanza for D.C. or one for what I think of as the PIC- Protest Industrial Complex (the surveillance, jails, lawyers, etc).
         Generating economic activity in positive or negative ways.
         More positive ways: hotel stays, restaurant visits, etc.
      2. Mikel January 20, 2026 at 4:32 pm

         “Would we even be covered on the news?”
         That’s “the revolution will not be televised” concern.

         And I’m thinking these days about how to make that “the revolution will not be monetized.”
      3. rowlf January 20, 2026 at 8:15 pm

         The Walk For Peace by a group of Buddhist monks seems to be drawing good size crowds of people wanting to be for something.

         Last 24 hour news coverage The local news media along their path seems to be giving positive coverage.

         Police and sheriff departments along the way have been very helpful in keeping the walk safe and organized.
   5. Mikel January 20, 2026 at 11:55 am

      These are sprawling metros and most people never encounter the troops or ICE.
      I have a relative in town, new to LA. We drove around a bit with me as personal tour guide. He was slightly surprised that we drove around for hours and he never saw any areas damaged from the fires early in 2025.
      1. bassmule January 20, 2026 at 3:06 pm

         This is a report from the front lines in Minnesota. The author does not want her name on it. Saw it on fb. The level of detail convinces me that this is not some AI concoction:

         This is long, and detailed, but you really need to read the whole thing, because, as the author says, the MSM are treating this as though one person a day was being kidnapped. ICE thugs do whatever they want.
         With thanks to friend Kathy Hubbell for sharing. From the front lines.
         * * * * *
         KH: Passed along from a good friend in another state about what’s happening in Minneapolis…From someone in Minneapolis who has to remain anonymous, for reasons that are pretty clear.
         * * * * * * *
         I have had several of you from out of state ask about us, and I will tell you things are FAR WORSE than anything the mainstream media is presenting. There are too many videos to share, and far too many ICE raids, beatings, abductions, and other crimes to even begin to count let alone have any hope of knowing about, let alone sharing. And, of course, we all know about Renee Good’s brutal murder last week. Everyone I know here is shaken to the core.
         Over these weeks I’ve been sharing videos and photos and other people’s stories because they NEED to be shared. People need to know what is happening–in real terms, not the “balanced” 30-second segments on mainstream media.
         I’m writing tonight because, frankly, I don’t know what else to do. A video shared by a close coworker in front of her church yesterday and more abductions at bus stops today became the last straw to be honest. I’m tired and angry, and so is everyone here.
         I’m saying these things because we need people outside of the Twin Cities to understand these are NOT a handful of incidents. We are literally under the largest federal occupation of an American city in generations. With over 2000 (some say 2400) ICE agents here and another 1000 on their way, it is a deliberate political targeting of my state.
         The rest of the country should be watching. This is the testing ground. You don’t want to live this way, I promise you. Fight like hell because they intend to bring this everywhere.
         The people and neighborhoods in my city are not abstractions. They are more than scenes that flash across your nightly news or social feed. We LIVE here. We KNOW these people who are being harassed and taken. We KNOW and/or ARE those who are witnessing this violence.
         One of my coworkers witnessed Renee Good’s murder. I know many people who live in that neighborhood, where ICE is absolutely relentless, including violently abducting multiple people just on that street alone yesterday (and every day).
         The notifications for raids and abductions are nonstop–all hours of the day and night. At times they’re going door to door–lately kicking in the door armed to the teeth, entering illegally without a warrant and without batting an eye. They are pulling fire alarms in apartment buildings to grab people on their way out of the buildings. They pull over when they see a person of color at a gas station (like yesterday afternoon a few blocks from here) or a bus stop (like this morning) or walking down the street (every single day) to harass and very often violently abduct them.
         These agents aren’t out for any particular person. Don’t buy the LIES about picking up criminals. They just grab whoever they deem non-white. Native Americans have been taken, and many are still missing. They are also abducting white legal observers, including those who offer no confrontation whatsoever.
         Yesterday they violently abducted an autistic woman who was just trying to get to a doctor appointment on a street they were occupying. They gas legal observers (or any observer) and protestors with tear gas (banned by the Geneva Convention for civilians) and mace and pepper balls. They shoot “non-lethal” ammunition at close range that sends people to the hospital and in some cases permanently blinds people. (Yes, they deliberately aim for faces.)
         I get so tired of hearing people lecture about what ICE can and cannot do legally. Yes, we all know. The problem is ICE agents don’t care and do what they want. DHS have told them they have unconditional immunity.
         Their raids are everywhere–including places we go regularly: restaurants, gas stations, grocery stores, parks, hospitals, any kind of business or public space you can think of. In many parts of the city, you literally cannot go out without hearing the sirens and whistles. And then the constant helicopters… (Everyone who lives here knows what I mean.)
         Like every parent here, I worry for my daughter’s school because they are, yes, targeting schools. Last week they attacked students and staff at a Minneapolis high school. Yesterday it was a middle school and elementary school. Today it was circling nearly all South Minneapolis elementary and middle schools.
         ICE is at day care centers and preschools. Parents are volunteering to monitor school pickups and dropoffs, and yesterday there was police presence at my daughter’s school. Many kids can’t even go to school now because there’s so much fear they or their parents will be taken.
         Schools are rushing to create online lessons and hybrid setups to accommodate those who don’t feel safe enough to come to school. Children have literally been abducted on their way home from school by ICE. I know of at least one parent who was abducted at a bus stop today while she stood with her elementary school child.
         They illegally entered the college campus I worked at and abducted a student there. Again, this is just what I know of through my own personal networks.
         Oh, and ICE is also blocking the food distribution center for the Minneapolis Public Schools, so trucks can’t get out to deliver lunches. It’s been reported to the MN Atty General, but that doesn’t change the fact that students will go hungry.
         Thousands upon thousands of people are afraid to leave their homes to go grocery shopping, visit food shelves, get medicine, or go to work. Businesses are empty or closed because workers are terrified to travel to or be visible in their jobs.
         Women in our neighborhood are asking through back channels about at-home midwives because they’re afraid to go to the hospital to have their babies. And their fear is warranted! ICE has been entering hospitals without warrants. They’ve attacked people outside hospitals, and they’ve also been waiting outside multiple hospitals, including a children’s hospital, to pick up people of color who come out the doors.
         Neighborhoods and churches, including my own, are scrambling to organize mutual aid efforts to get groceries to people or help pay bills while family members can’t go to work or drive those who are afraid to be seen behind the wheel or at a bus stop.
         We’re not just talking about undocumented people. We’re talking about any person of color. These are our neighbors. Our children’s classmates. Our friends and family members.
         Our city but increasingly our entire metro area is seeing and dealing with these cosplay thugs every single day. And they are moving into rural areas as well, picking up people indiscriminately. Again, this has NOTHING to do with criminal backgrounds and EVERYTHING to do with race.
         Now on top of it all we have a bunch of white supremacist goons coming here in a few days to “march” in the most terrorized neighborhoods. My only comfort is that it’s supposed to be single digits next week. Welcome to Minnesota, losers. We saved our best weather just for you.
         I’m beyond disgusted with these thugs and those who support this assault on our Constitutional rights, let alone basic human decency. My community is exhausted and fried from stress, and I’m a white person who doesn’t even live in the epicenter.
         I can’t imagine what many are going through right now who can’t work and have no income, those whose loved ones have been taken or beaten (or murdered), the children who are forever traumatized at the loss of their parents.
         But make no mistake–we aren’t backing down. I’ve lived a lot of places in my life, and I have to say they chose the wrong freaking state. People are organizing beyond anything I’ve ever seen in my life, and it makes me so damned proud to live in this city. I’ve never loved it more, and I’ll keep fighting for it.
         So, please–share the stories, share the videos. Amplify everything you see coming out of this state. The mainstream media is all but dead.
         Follow Georgia Fort, Mercado Media, Sahan Journal, and independent outlets like Meidas and Courier (just to name a few). Listen and know that it’s got to be all of us fighting this. Wake up to what is really happening…before it comes for you and your communities.
         The original author does not wish to be identified.
         1. Mikel January 20, 2026 at 7:45 pm

            I’m not doubting it’s happening. Just addressing that some people only become more aware when they encounter and the influence of geography.

            I was saying the other day that MN is being targeted because it was 2020 in MN where major protests really kicked off against police violence.
         2. AG January 20, 2026 at 8:24 pm

            There is DEMOCRACYNOW with this:
            https://www.democracynow.org/2026/1/20/minneapolis_minnesota_ice

            CONSORTIUMNEWS panel with Lauria, Cohen, Rowley
            https://consortiumnews.com/2026/01/19/watch-cn-live-minnesota-meltdown/

            Matt Taibbi & Walter Kirn were live tonight but that cannot be replayed. Coming from the other side so to speak.

            RACKET also had 1 video up and a written interview:

            News2Share, Ford Fischer, has spent nine days in Minneapolis-St. Paul in the aftermath of the fatal shooting of Renee Good. We had him on last week’s America This Week livestream reporting while in a vehicle following federal agents and anti-ICE activists.
            https://www.racket.news/p/activism-uncensored-minneapolis-in

            For paid subscribers only from Jan. 15th however:
            Lee Fang
            Podcast: Minneapocalypse
            The dangerous escalation in Minnesota and the end of the western liberal order.
            https://www.leefang.com/p/podcast-minneapocalypse

            I hope he will bring an update.
         3. Jonathan Holland Becnel January 20, 2026 at 11:26 pm

            Wow, that’s terrifying. Really appreciate you sharing that account from on the ground in Minnesota.

            I know that when I was in Class Unity, we had a solid number of Class First Marxists from the Minneapolis area. Solidarity from Louisiana and I hope y’all organize the f out of that area!!!!!

            My little neighborhood here in Bucktown, Metairie had a couple people snatched away a couple weeks ago and my fn blood was boiling with outrage at the CBP kidnapping two construction workers.

            Thanks for sharing and will watch out for more updates!
         4. David in Friday Harbor January 21, 2026 at 9:51 am

            Thank you bassmule for sharing this chilling account of life in Minneapolis.

            All of the right-wing preppers between the Cascades and the Rockies should read what it’s really like when the government informally trashes the Bill of Rights. Trump and Miller are quite evidently trying to provoke an insurrection so that they may formally suspend the U.S. Constitution. They’re a couple of criminal sociopaths.
4. mrsyk January 20, 2026 at 8:00 am

   Good morning. FWIW, Neither Ukraine, nor Putin mentioned in my google news feed this morning, a first for me since the start of the SMO.

   IMO, google news is a good source for keeping an eye on the narrative.
   1. jsn January 20, 2026 at 8:05 pm

      “Grab Greenland!!!” is working.
      1. ambrit January 21, 2026 at 6:10 am

         Much less the Orange Haired Epstein and his “Grab ’em by the meow meow.”
5. Ignacio January 20, 2026 at 8:06 am

   On January 18th two high-speed trains crashed not far from Córdoba, Spain with now 41 deaths (still counting). The last three wagons of one of the trains derailed very shortly before the second train was approaching in opposite direction. Causes still not known. The derailment probably caused by a broken rail though still the reasons behind that are not known or unreported. The railways had been subject to maintenance recently.

   I bet this will have to do with neoliberalism, subcontracting branch of it, resulting in something badly done during maintenance.
6. Trees&Trunks January 20, 2026 at 8:08 am

   If you feel you speak too clearly and straight-forward, here you find some inspiration to correct it

   https://archive.ph/FhFhr
   1. AG January 20, 2026 at 9:34 am

      thanks!
      It´s fascinating how framing is everything:
      Were this not the FT but a non-legacy (online) maybe even alternative (beware!) outlet I could not send it to people who I can now charm with this piece.
      With FT it´s accepted as “funny”.
      Not FT it´s seen as “dumb conspiracy theory”.
   2. NoBrick January 20, 2026 at 10:02 am

      Nice Trees& Trunks. Here’s some more:

      Regardless of what you know, don’t discuss it —

      Avoid discussing key issues and instead focus on side issues …

      Find or create a seeming element of your opponent’s argument which you can easily knock down to make yourself look good and the opponent to look bad.

      Invoke authority. Claim for yourself or associate yourself with authority and present your argument with enough ‘jargon’ and ‘minutia’ to illustrate you are ‘one who knows’…

      No matter what evidence or logical argument is offered, avoid discussing issues..

      The above came from nc 2013/08
   3. .Tom January 20, 2026 at 10:20 am

      Link is to an FT humour article: How to speak Davosian — for beginners The phrases you might hear at this year’s World Economic Forum . . . and what they really mean

      Example: “My sense is that leaders are ready to deliver the benefits of this reimagined moment at scale.” translates to, “I work for McKinsey.”
7. diptherio January 20, 2026 at 8:23 am

   Re: Diego Garcia

   A quick read through the Wikipedia page was enlightening.

   On 3 October 2024, the UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced in a statement with the Mauritian prime minister Pravind Jugnauth that the UK will hand over the Chagos islands to Mauritius. The joint base on the island will stay, with the UK initially taking a 99-year lease of the base from Mauritius. Mauritius will be allowed to begin resettlement on the Chagos Archipelago, but not on Diego Garcia due to the sensitive nature of the base. U.S. president Joe Biden welcomed the agreement, saying that it was a “clear demonstration that through diplomacy and partnership, countries can overcome long-standing historical challenges to reach peaceful and mutually beneficial outcomes”.[48] The deal was put on hold following the 2024 United States presidential election to allow consideration from the incoming Trump administration.[49] On 1 April 2025, the new administration approved letting treaty negotiations continue.[50]

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia

   I guess we should have known they were only joking when they gave their sign-off on April Fool’s day…
8. Adam1 January 20, 2026 at 8:34 am

   “Rumours first circulated last month Europe and UK had threatened to liquidate US Treasuries as a ‘nuclear option’ if Trump does a deal with Putin to end the Ukraine war against European interests. The rumour is back as potential retaliation for invading Greenland.”

   LOL! While I’m sure the stupid folks in Washington could still screw it up, but the FED would be well within it’s power and right to make this a non-thing with just a press of a few buttons. Granted there would still be knock on psychological effects that could scare wall street, but in the end the price of Treasuries is well within the FEDs power to control.
9. AG January 20, 2026 at 8:39 am

   re: Eastern Europe vs. free speech

   NYT

   Don´t expect too much but considering the NYT´s abysmal record this is worth a tiny note.
   (Of course you could file this under “part of good propaganda”).

   
   Antiwar Russians in Europe Learn That They Must Watch Their Words
   A backlash over a rant against Ukrainian officials has raised questions about Eastern Europe’s welcome of Russian dissidents.
   Jan16th
   https://archive.is/KmGkb

   intro:
   “(…)
   Leonid Volkov is exactly the type of Russian dissident Europe has pledged to protect.
   He oversaw some of the biggest organized resistance to President Vladimir V. Putin. He was chief of staff to the opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny, who was jailed and then died under mysterious circumstances. He was convicted by a Russian court in absentia on trumped-up charges and sentenced to 18 years in prison.

   But a backlash over a private rant in which he criticized Ukrainian officials has raised questions about Eastern Europe’s welcome of Russian dissidents and the limits of free speech on the continent.

   After the comments were leaked, officials in Lithuania, where Mr. Volkov has lived for years, called for his expulsion from the country, saying he had crossed a line by criticizing a nation defending itself from an invasion.

   It mattered little that Mr. Volkov has supported Ukraine in what he calls Russia’s immoral war. Lithuania and other Eastern European countries, fearful that they could be Russia’s next targets, have aligned themselves so strongly with Kyiv that the space for criticizing Ukraine’s conduct of the war has shrunk.

   Russian exiles say the case has had a chilling effect and has led some to wonder where they might go next if they need to move again. Vytis Jurkonis, a Lithuanian human rights activist, said that the Lithuanian government’s threshold for tolerating “any ambiguity on Ukraine-related issues” had grown very low.
   (…)”
   1. das monde January 20, 2026 at 10:13 am

      A little bit of this:

      Honorary Chairman of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) [and member of the EU parliament, former EU comissar] Vytenis Povilas Andriukaitis has called Algirdas Paleckis a “political prisoner”. The latter is serving a sentence for spying for Russia.

      https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/prominent-socdem-calls-paleckis-a-political-prisoner-120198833
      1. AG January 20, 2026 at 10:30 am

         thanks

         whenever you see Baltics in the news it´s insanity that is on display
         i am seriously annoyed by these tiny countries considering that the city of Berlin alone has a population of 3.7M
         besides many average people of those idiocracies seem to be decent and much smarter than their despicable US-trained and indoctrinated elites
10. LawnDart January 20, 2026 at 8:46 am

    Re; Trump supporters and insecure men more likely to value a large penis, according to new research

    That’s hitting below the belt, isn’t it?
    1. das monde January 20, 2026 at 10:14 am

       No one else values that?
11. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 8:46 am

    “Mentality of a rapist”

    Pretty sure that Stephen Miller also subscribes to Mao Zedong’s famous quote-

    ‘Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.’

    So does Miller think then that Russia was correct in launching their SMO? But there are consequences to this sort of attitude. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said during a press conference-

    ‘ “Of course, the US wants to negotiate, but so far this is all happening in the absence of any common criteria that until recently underpinned the work of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization,” Lavrov said. “It’s a game of ‘might makes right’.” ‘

    https://www.rt.com/russia/631192-lavrov-might-makes-right/
    1. leaf January 20, 2026 at 9:23 am

       I hadn’t realized that Chairman Mao’s quote was actually part of one of his speeches and not just some offhand remark:

       “Communists do not fight for personal military power (they must in no circumstances do that, and let no one ever again follow the example of Chang Kuo-tao), but they must fight for military power for the Party, for military power for the people. As a national war of resistance is going on, we must also fight for military power for the nation. Where there is naivety on the question of military power, nothing whatsoever can be achieved. It is very difficult for the labouring people, who have been deceived and intimidated by the reactionary ruling classes for thousands of years, to awaken to the importance of having guns in their own hands. Now that Japanese imperialist oppression and the nation-wide resistance to it have pushed our labouring people into the arena of war, Communists should prove themselves the most politically conscious leaders in this war. Every Communist must grasp the truth, “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” Our principle is that the Party commands the gun, and the gun must never be allowed to command the Party. Yet, having guns, we can create Party organizations, as witness the powerful Party organizations which the Eighth Route Army has created in northern China. We can also create cadres, create schools, create culture, create mass movements. Everything in Yenan has been created by having guns. All things grow out of the barrel of a gun. According to the Marxist theory of the state, the army is the chief component of state power. Whoever wants to seize and retain state power must have a strong army. Some people ridicule us as advocates of the “omnipotence of war”. Yes, we are advocates of the omnipotence of revolutionary war; that is good, not bad, it is Marxist. The guns of the Russian Communist Party created socialism. We shall create a democratic republic. Experience in the class struggle in the era of imperialism teaches us that it is only by the power of the gun that the working class and the labouring masses can defeat the armed bourgeoisie and landlords; in this sense we may say that only with guns can the whole world be transformed. We are advocates of the abolition of war, we do not want war; but war can only be abolished through war, and in order to get rid of the gun it is necessary to take up the gun.”

       https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/selected-works/volume-2/mswv2_12.htm#p2

       I suppose it all depends on what you use your guns for?
       1. albrt January 20, 2026 at 12:52 pm

          Right, we just need to make sure there are more good guys with guns than bad guys with guns. Simple.
       2. Alice X January 20, 2026 at 4:18 pm

          Thank you!

          Unfortunately for the Chinese (and us) this is a misreading of Marx’s Critique of the Gotha Programme.

          My 2¢
          1. communistmole January 20, 2026 at 6:45 pm

             Misreading of Marx has been a key factor in the former success of Marxism.
       3. Jeremy Grimm January 20, 2026 at 7:40 pm

          I recall that quip or something very similar stated in a book claiming that it was an English version of Mao’s “Little Red Book”
12. doug January 20, 2026 at 8:51 am

    Mr Ritholtz. We no longer have a ‘defense’ department. That is official, and should be recognized. I am tired of reading ‘defense’ contractors. We have none. We have ‘war’ contractors, full stop.
13. Adam1 January 20, 2026 at 8:55 am

    “For us, there’s no doubt: only when the pressure on the Kremlin becomes strong enough, can we expect Putin to be genuinely ready for negotiations.”

    This statement on the surface is true, but it’s delusional to think the west has actually put any meaningful pressure on Russia. Yes we’ve made things hard for the Russians, but nothing like the pressure that’s being assumed/referred to here. It’s comical people believe so.
    1. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 9:07 am

       I can hardly believe that he is saying this with all the evidence of the Ukraine collapsing. German Foreign Minister Wadephul is either seriously misinformed or is lying his face off. All I can say is what a fool, what a fool.
    2. Polar Socialist January 20, 2026 at 9:17 am

       Oh, the trick is in the “genuinely ready” wording. Russia has been ready for negotiations ever since the invasion started – they even negotiated a peace in Istanbul in 2022! – but only on their terms. That is not genuine, innit.

       Somebody not of The West just cannot come to the negotiating table with their own agenda, the very idea is absurd. “Genuinely ready” means “willing to accept NATO’s terms”.

       You can see the confusion reigning in EU now that they are, for the first time in a loooooong time, facing the same attitude regarding Greenland – USA will be knocking heads together until Denmark is “genuinely ready” to yield Greenland.
       1. Expat2uruguay January 20, 2026 at 2:19 pm

          It certainly seems so. I rather think that if the United States does get Greenland then this would have a positive effect on the dollar. Gold might stabilize too.

          Think how much the dollar would strengthen if the US pulled back from many of its bases in the eastern hemisphere.

          Fortress America(s), which of course includes the entire Western hemisphere, would be a good move for the US: militarily, economically, and politically, both at home and internationally.

          But I guess that would just be too much winning for our leaders.
14. johnnyme January 20, 2026 at 9:01 am

    Sadly, the viking in the bathtub clip is AI generated (they admit this in the dailystar article — “It turns out, the clip was AI-generated”).

    If it were real, they would be playing it on repeat on all of our local news channels.
    1. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 9:10 am

       Uff da. I knew that it was too good to be true. Oh ja, but it was well done, dontcha know. No Minnesota goodbyes for those ICE cops if it had been real, you betcha.
       1. RookieEMT January 20, 2026 at 9:22 am

          I think there’s some non-AI clips of ICE agents slipping on real ice.
          1. johnnyme January 20, 2026 at 10:02 am

             Protesters have been dumping buckets of water to create slick conditions.

             ICE vs. Ice: Protesters in Minneapolis Find an Ally in Winter

             Some of the ice is created by protesters: At a demonstration this week, protesters slowly drove a car outside the Whipple building with its hatch wide open, revealing several open jugs rigged to stream water into the street. A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security said the act could “potentially kill” federal agents by causing them to crash their vehicles.

             That ice isn’t melting anytime soon. No temps above freezing for the next two weeks and overnight lows on Friday and Saturday are forecast to be around -20F/-30C with daytime highs on Saturday struggling to get to -10F/-23C.
       2. johnnyme January 20, 2026 at 9:42 am

          Ohhhh definitely agree dat dat der video was pretty good, der.

          On the plus side, since there was a hill involved, if it were real it could have only happened in downtown St. Paul (downtown Minneapolis is flat as a pancake) and they have once again been denied bragging rights. :)
       3. Karen January 20, 2026 at 4:04 pm

          Hey Rev Kev. Was that a lame attempt at imitating a Minnesota accent? It looks somewhat like a Yooper accent but not quite that either.

          I give you -5 points for diplomacy today as you managed to offend Minnesota AND Upper Michigan residents.

          There is a play called “Guys On Ice” produced by Northern Sky Theater in Door County, Wisconsin that made it to DVD, about some men in an ice shack discussing life’s problems (no more details) and they chose to give these Wisconsin residents a Yooper accent.

          It is a good play and very funny, I enjoyed it but some of my Wisconsin friends down voted it for the Yooper accent.
          1. johnnyme January 20, 2026 at 4:50 pm

             Not lame at all — he’s got the Minnesota lingo down pat.

             As a lifelong Minnesotan, I’m never offended when someone on the other side of the planet from me shows any familiarity with our quirky culture here.
          2. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 6:04 pm

             I was inspired by a character from the TV series “Supernatural.” A charming Minnesota sheriff who became a hunter like the Winchesters-

             https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEYxvAn1n54 (9:33 mins)
             1. johnnyme January 20, 2026 at 6:37 pm

                If you ever want to “level up” your Minnesotan:

                How to Talk Minnesotan
                1. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 6:53 pm

                   Thanks for that. My initial impression is that there is a lot of Scandinavian influence in those speech patterns going by some of the words used. It seems to be a very distinct regional dialect.
                   1. johnnyme January 20, 2026 at 7:34 pm

                      Indeed it is.

                      North-Central American English (There’s a fun political trivia nugget in this article).

                      We get our lilt from the Scandinavians and German has a strong influence.
       4. ilsm January 20, 2026 at 8:16 pm

          Uff da,

          My friend, uff dah is a colloquial catch-all exclamation used among descendants of Finnish and Norwegian immigrants and USAF personnel on the now closed radar site in a place called Finland Mn.

          We also celebrated St Urho Day in early spring! While St Patrick saved Ireland from snakes St Urho saved Finland’s grapes from grasshoppers…. An excuse for one more party before the thaw!

          Uff dah seems to have been adopted for the film Fargo!
15. Argon of Sakkad January 20, 2026 at 9:12 am

    If you follow the link “Not AI, see press story” above the “Viking in a bathtub” video, it specifically says that the clip was AI-generated.
16. FreeMarketApologist January 20, 2026 at 9:12 am

    Correct link for “Killing deer not the answer to reducing Lyme Disease”:

    https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/kiling-deer-not-answer-reducing-lyme-disease-html/

    (article from 2010, so hardly new news, but updates in 2024)
17. JohnnyGL January 20, 2026 at 9:15 am

    The viking bathtub running from ICE is AI. The article says it at the bottom. They left it up for clicks.
18. RookieEMT January 20, 2026 at 9:17 am

    That ICE bathtub clip absolutely is an AI video, it says so in the news article about 3/4 of the way in.

    The men are running strangely. Why are they wearing all black, usually ICE wears that light green gear or grey gear?

    I am comfortable calling that article slop garbage.
    1. Yves Smith Post authorJanuary 20, 2026 at 10:11 am

       Removing it. I am annoyed because a reader sent me the Star link, so I went looking for the vid.

       After the US chased the then Bella-1 across the Atlantic, not merited hot pursuits seemed plausible, and this follows the actual case of someone dancing in a fox costume being beaten up by ICE.
19. AG January 20, 2026 at 9:20 am

    re: Kurds Rojava

    JUNGE WELT daily

    machine-translation

    The dream is over
    The end of Rojava’s autonomy
    https://archive.is/uBMSI
    1. Polar Socialist January 20, 2026 at 3:12 pm

       It was not an autonomy, it was a blatant violation of Syria’s sovereignty, and we in The West abhor such behavior.

       At times.

       Depending on the context.

       And interests served.
       1. AG January 20, 2026 at 11:55 pm

          Would it be fair to say the Kurdish case is complex?
          The issue is always trying to build your our community aka state at a time when you are already surrounded by others who have completed this phase. So I guess they were nibbling away territory from various actors. However I usually focused on the Turkish/Iraqi dimension where you could argue on the basis of victimhood. My cautious take.
          Are there comparable parallels to Palestine? Or would that lead too far.
20. AG January 20, 2026 at 9:22 am

    re: Iran

    interview by German JUNGE WELT

    machine-translation

    “We want to confront the dictatorship and US imperialism.”
    Causes, composition, and perspectives of the protest movement in Iran. A conversation with Navid Shomali
    https://archive.is/VE6GH

    p.s. when I address the problem of nationhood vs. self-determination (RU, UKR, EU world) of citiziens within the nation there is this contradiction that once the (oppressive) state disappears exterior actors will abuse the weakness.

    one typical answer in the conversation:

    “(…)
    By building solidarity and unity in the actions of all progressive forces, we must strive to confront the ruling dictatorship and, at the same time, the threat of US imperialism. Key strategies that must be pursued include organizing a nationwide general strike to limit and ultimately completely dismantle the Islamic Republic’s ability to exercise power, as well as the struggle to establish a national and people’s democratic transitional government and to hold a referendum on the country’s future path.
    (…)”
21. flora January 20, 2026 at 9:24 am

    From Due Dissidence with Katie Halper. utube, ~8+ minutes.

    Israeli BRAGS About GAZA ANNIHILATION in UNHINGED Post – w/ Katie Halper

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0g8-dmfxoyM
22. eg January 20, 2026 at 9:33 am

    Noah Smith apparently missed the last 250 years during which groups of Americans exhibited precisely such brutal behaviour towards its own indigenous peoples, followed by non-white peoples all over the Americas, the Pacific and West Asia.

    Now he’s “surprised” that the tools of oppression perfected on the periphery of the Empire “blow back” upon the citizenry of the metropole.

    Karma is a family blog …
23. ceco January 20, 2026 at 9:36 am

    Re: Max Roach and Martin Luther King Jr.

    We Insist! Freedom Now Suite

    And one to grow on: Charles Mingus’ Fables of Faubus.
    1. ceco January 20, 2026 at 9:53 am

       Oops. Not sure why that Mingus link got the same URL, but here is is, corrected, for anyone interested.
    2. lyman alpha blob January 20, 2026 at 1:42 pm

       Glad I scrolled down before positing – you beat me to it!

       I 2nd the We Insist! recommendation.
    3. .Tom January 20, 2026 at 4:21 pm

       Roach was diplomatic in that interview with the Norwegian mic holder and perhaps also sincere, in which case his concluding remark on his optimism that US-ian pluralism could be an example to the rest of the world is rather poignant now.

       Thanks for the We Insist! suggestion.
    4. David in Friday Harbor January 20, 2026 at 10:42 pm

       My college roommate, a Black man born and raised in Compton CA, studied drums as a teenager with Max Roach in the ‘73-‘76 timeframe. When we met in ‘76 he was a Philosophy major; Max had clearly inspired him far beyond beating on the drum-heads. My friend made it his mission to turn me on to jazz and I’ve since met some of the great drummers, for example Elvin Jones and Tony Williams, and have experienced many more in performance.

       Sadly, my friend was taken from us in a traffic collision far too early but jazz opened up my mind — and I’m happy to say that his now adult children are out in the world doing amazing things that their father would have approved.
24. flora January 20, 2026 at 9:45 am

    File under AI. From Solari Report, utube, ~2+ minutes.

    Another Telltale Sign That AI Will Not Work: Insurance Companies Don’t Want to Insure It

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e2n8nuk-ks
    1. flora January 20, 2026 at 9:56 am

       And about those data centers, from The Food & Environment Reporting Network (FERN) and Rolling Stone magazine:

       ‘The precedent is Flint’: How Oregon’s data center boom is supercharging a water crisis

       Amazon has come to the state’s eastern farmland, worsening a water pollution problem that’s been linked to cancer and miscarriages

       https://thefern.org/2025/11/the-precedent-is-flint-how-oregons-data-center-boom-is-supercharging-a-water-crisis/
25. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 9:52 am

    ‘Brian Allen
    @allenanalysis
    🚨 CONFIRMED: Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has acknowledged Trump’s letter is real.’

    Believe it or not, this is going to be an oft quoted historical document in years to come. And what has to be remembered is that the Trump White house wanted this letter leaked. A teenage kid would not write such a letter saying that as he was denied a Nobel Peace Prize, now he feels free to go to war more. And saying that Denmark does not have a right of ownership as there are no written documents. What does he expect? A bill of sale. Then to rant it was only because a boat landed there hundreds of years ago but so has American boats. Then to cap it off by saying NATO should give Greenland to him as he has been good to them. A MAGA meme is that all the countries in the world have been taking advantage of America so it is only right that America squares accounts. And I think that this meme is influencing how Trump views the whole Greenland thing.
    1. Expat2uruguay January 20, 2026 at 2:31 pm

       I know it’s terrible, but I think it’s going to work out great for him. Seriously, he’s going to get Greenland and that’s a big deal.

       Unless the Russians in Chinese have something to say about it. And why would they let their enemy gain strategic ground and resources? I can’t believe that they will allow it in the end. But for now they’re watching the dawning of awareness in the EU, a strategic good for them, so the show will go on for a bit more.

       I think how this issue is ultimately decided will be a big pivot point, assuming everything doesn’t go boom elsewhere!
       1. Acacia January 20, 2026 at 7:23 pm

          China has started talking about this:

          https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/2013177970802745499

          …tho I agree with your first sentence.
       2. Polar Socialist January 20, 2026 at 7:54 pm

          In a strategic sense, as far as Greenland has any, USA already owns it lock, stock and barrel.

          On the other hand, I don’t think Russia or China really sign up to Mackinder or Mahan fan-club, and Greenland really is not within their sphere of interest and certainly not influence.

          Should Greenland gain independence, it would certainly be welcomed to BRICS, though.
26. SomeGuyinAZ January 20, 2026 at 10:51 am

    Too bad Denmark couldn’t respond with a price tag for their rights to Greenland of something like $5 Trillion and the US has to dump the current healthcare charade/system and instead implement and keep a “Danish style” healthcare system across the entire US footprint for at least the next 99 years. Then require the US to obtain the local Greenlanders approval as well.

    A fantasy I know, but it would be nice if there was hope of something good coming out of these shenanigans.
27. AG January 20, 2026 at 10:56 am

    re: Trump Ukraine War

    JAMES CARDEN SUBSTACK
    Basically a summary.

    Between Conciliation and Coercion
    Is there an actually existing Ukraine policy? Probably not.
    https://therealistreview.substack.com/p/between-conciliation-and-coercion

    “(…)Second Term Trump is a different animal. First Term Trump evinced a vast incomprehension of the way the US government, particularly the way the national security services, works. Now Trump is more fully in control of his government and his foreign policy. But control has not translated into coherence. Once again, there is the public flattery of Putin, which is then followed by policies and pronouncements which seem designed to coerce Russia into taking a different course in Ukraine. The results, so far, have been dismal.
    (…)
    I believe the theory with the most explanatory power is that Trump is seeking to placate two specific constituencies within his own administration and political party. And the two constituencies—America First and the Neoconservatives—have vastly different views of Russia and the war in Ukraine.
    (…)
    As of this writing there appeared to be a stalemate between the two competing ideologies within the administration. And so, we should expect the pendulum swings to continue—and nothing in the way of progress.
    (…)”

    complementary

    Ray McGovern with Glenn Diesen mainly about the demise of serious communication concerning security arrangements between RU/USSR and USA

    The Road War – Arms Control Collapsing
    60 min.
    https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/ray-mcgovern-the-road-war-arms-control

    Being a big fan and admirer I still do not share his JFK cheerleading.

    I read JFK´s speech at the American University twice and I still think it´s a highly effective propaganda piece laying all the blame at the Soviets´ door but hiding it very smartly between the lines.

    I assume out of 100 people 99 will contradict me…
    1. Alex Cox January 20, 2026 at 10:05 pm

       I agree with you. If you listen to JFK’s reading of the speech (written by Ted Sorensen) he doesn’t seem passionate, or even familiar with its content.
       1. AG January 21, 2026 at 11:08 am

          I had to chuckle during the first season of Danish series BORGEN – because there one of the main characters is the speechwriter of the newly elected prime minister who is also the heroine (the writer is played by Pilou Asbæk who also appeared in the real action adaptation of GHOST IN THE SHELL) – and he repeatedly mentions Sorensen being of Danish decent and interprets this as a good sign for his political career. Of course he admires Sorensen and tries to apply his rhetorics.
          I sometimes came to think with how much JFK is identified with the speeches, Sorensen was JFK – in a way Josef Sternberg was Marlene Dietrich, with his (in)famous “I am Marlene”. 🤔
28. Mikel January 20, 2026 at 12:03 pm

    On Greenland, the Monroe Doctrine, USA expansion and aggression towards Europe Jeff Rich.

    “Historical precedent provides encouragement. The British Empire’s maximum extent in the 1920s preceded its disintegration within twenty years. American overreach in Greenland could similarly announce USA imperial disintegration and American decolonisation. If more states worldwide name the United States as the principal threat to peace and security, as the rogue state that has de facto seceded from the UN, we may be witnessing an acceleration of 21st century decolonisation.”

    Just spitballin’ here, but…

    The British Empire then “passed the baton” to the USA. Today I read, for example, an article like this: The (Attempted) Israelisation of Latin America – Nick Corbishley. Ups and downs for sure, but hard to believe any commitment to “21st Century decolonization” with the big Z attempting to get in position to take the baton. Or at least it can appear that way. It tempers the encouragement.
29. Steve H. January 20, 2026 at 12:19 pm

    > Oversocialization, the Shackles of the Millennial Generation Freddie deBoer. This explains much.

    >> The result is a life lived under continuous internal audit, where confidence would require ignoring exactly the social signals they’ve spent years learning to decode.
    >> Success in elite educational and professional milieus increasingly depends on an almost obsessive attunement to other people’s judgments, shifting norms, and invisible rules, so the habit of self-surveillance never switches off.

    We have made ado about credentialism before, and in the video the credentialing inquiry is accompanied by self-deprecation:
    > What do you do? {What?} What do you do, it’s a stupid question so I thought I’d ask it. {I’m a lawyer.}

    From The emergence of categorical norms:
    > Specifically, our model suggests that the reliance on categorical norms is rooted in two problems: the need to coordinate, and the reliance on private information.
    > an essential feature of sanctioning in norm enforcement models: it is worth sanctioning (playing S) if and only if others expect you to.

    In the clip, they are coordinating a transgression – asking for a categorical credential in an informal setting. She self-sanctions herself. He accepts, and responds, but she shifts norms:

    > {What do you do?} That’s such a stupid question. Just kidding. That’s kind of hard to explain… because I don’t really do it. I’m a dancer, I guess.

    She exposes her own fuzzy category, and the insecurity underlying it. Is she a dancer (credential) if she’s not dancing? Per the Norms paper, she is decomposing the category into the underlying continuum. And that stops the conversation, since now it’s become dangerous to respond.
30. John Wright January 20, 2026 at 12:23 pm

    The hedge fundies who went after college presidents at Harvard, Penn and Columbia give some credence to a “protests matter” belief.

    I remember the Vietnam War protests, but that was Middle class kids fearful of the draft.

    I was surprised that the donor class didn’t simply ignore Pro-Palestinian protests.

    Instead, when they clamped down on protesters, they proceeded to highlight the power of the wealthy in USA higher education, media and government.

    One could suspect that a number of students at USA universities paid attention.

    Maybe protests have been given credibility by the authorities’ actions.
    1. .human January 20, 2026 at 4:06 pm

       I remember the Vietnam War protests, but that was Middle class kids fearful of the draft.

       I feel sorry for you that you did not know anyone with the morals and ethics of “not killing brown people over there” (Cassius Clay/Mohamed Ali) and the courage to stand up for those convictions.

       As a middle class kid in the late ’60s and early ’70s, I was intimidated by lines of police beating their shields, roughed up, punched, thrown in jail with hundreds of like minded others peacefully protesting the official policy of murdering for fun and profit.

       I am a veteran of the wars fought on the streets of this country.
       1. wol January 20, 2026 at 9:53 pm

          Post getting a draft #283, while handing out anti-war leaflets I was harassed, shoved and spit on. Not by cops, by American Love It or Leave Its.
    2. JP January 20, 2026 at 5:21 pm

       Oh right, the Vietnam war protests were all about avoiding the draft. Personally I thought my parents were nuts to equate that war with WW2 that they all fought. And it was exactly a rejection of the mentality of going along with anything your government told you that was being protested. It was corrupt influence in our government supporting a more corrupt government fighting a war against the self determination of a people trying to throw off European colonization and their indigenous lackeys. If you think being conscripted to fight that war was the patriotic thing to do rather then protest, I hope you don’t vote. It might interest you to know that protesting government actions is given credibility in the US Constitution.
    3. Don January 20, 2026 at 9:25 pm

       Do you have any explanation for the massive anti-Vietnam-War protest movement in Canada? Hint: It was not focused on middle-class kids and the draft. And the working class (and the union movement specifically) was a predominant component — I rode in an 80-bus convoy of Toronto trade unionists to participate in a march on the US embassy in Ottawa.

       This, and many other huge marches and demonstrations, were organized around the following demands:

       “Bring the Troops Home Now — U.S. out of Vietnam!”
       “End Canadian Complicity!”
31. flora January 20, 2026 at 12:36 pm

    From Due Dissidence, utube, ~16+ minutes.

    ADL To Use AI To Connect PRO-BONO LAWYERS To Antisemitism Complaints – w/ Katie Halper

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNspYymGffE

    (Not sure whether to file this under AI or Police State Watch.)
    1. flora January 20, 2026 at 6:37 pm

       Update from Breaking Points, utube, ~12+ minutes.

       Local Cops HARASS Woman Who Criticized Israel

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fD7uVlUmcc
       1. flora January 20, 2026 at 7:25 pm

          More history on this Fla. law and its effects. Jimmy Dore. utube, ~7+ minutes.

          Miami Beach Police Intimidate Citizen For Anti-Israel Facebook Post!!

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhkdYNyQvgg
32. Tom Stone January 20, 2026 at 1:36 pm

    I am comforted by the thought that Chuck Schumer is seriously considering sending a sternly worded letter to Kristi Noem about the way ICE agents are conducting themselves.
    When the time is ripe, in due course, when there is enough dry powder ( Hunter keeps snorting it)…
    1. ThirtyOne January 20, 2026 at 4:12 pm

       Curiously, I can no longer find the “dry powder” rant/essay/satire using Gooble.
       1. ambrit January 20, 2026 at 7:01 pm

          I believe that the original essay on Dry Powder was by Gore Vidal, who knew the insides of the Congress like a pro.
       2. albrt January 20, 2026 at 8:34 pm

          This one?

          https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2007/8/5/366966/-
33. flora January 20, 2026 at 2:03 pm

    T is having a news conference now in the noon hour. ABC broke in with a special report. T’s makeup makes his face look bright red, sunburned red. He’s still saying we’re the hottest country.

    His polling numbers must be in the tank.
    1. flora January 20, 2026 at 2:32 pm

       adding: this is something to see. He’s sort of rambling over and over certain points again and again.
       1. alrhundi January 20, 2026 at 2:34 pm

          Its so hard to listen to. He’s such a POS the way he talks about Ilhan Omar and Somalia. Now he’s rambling about the Gulf of Trump, children of slaves, and fentanyl? Confusing
          1. Karen January 20, 2026 at 4:10 pm

             You think you are confused? Put yourself in his shoes.
       2. raspberry jam January 20, 2026 at 4:47 pm

          I am visiting my parents and stepped away from work for a bit to check on the Australian Open and my dad was watching it. Shambolic! I told my dad I’d take his car keys away from him if he started talking like that and he thanked me
    2. mikel January 20, 2026 at 3:32 pm

       I was making a quick lunch and decided to listen.
       I tuned in at the point where he was rambling about mental institutions.
       I said, “There are better shows on right now. Not going to do this to myself.”
    3. Steve H. January 20, 2026 at 4:56 pm

       And now he heads to Davos.

       NATO is more at risk the next three days than in it’s entire history.

       /s?
       1. ambrit January 20, 2026 at 7:03 pm

          Davos is the Number One Oreshnik target for those three days.
          (One can wish, can’t one?)
       2. Don January 20, 2026 at 9:30 pm

          Good news!
34. Jason Boxman January 20, 2026 at 2:10 pm

    Is America Breaking Up With the Calorie? (NY Times via archive.ph)

    Long held up as the big benchmark of nutrition, the calorie is losing its clout in the age of GLP-1s and a sharper focus on nutrients.

    and

    Calorie numbers still dominate the nutrition labels on food, in large, bold type, a change the Food and Drug Administration made in 2016 at the height of Michelle Obama’s “Let’s Move” initiative. Since 2018, a federal mandate has required all chain restaurants to list them on menus.

    But such measures don’t appear to have curbed calorie consumption. A study last year of similar efforts across several countries showed that the average reduction in people’s caloric intake was the dietary equivalent of a few potato chips.
35. Kouros January 20, 2026 at 4:05 pm

    A bit of an Orwellian Title, isn’t it? Even Pentagon thinks so since they change the name to Department of War… You can say defense when all you do is attack…
    1. ThirtyOne January 20, 2026 at 4:16 pm

       “The best offense is a good sucker-punch”.
36. Kouros January 20, 2026 at 4:07 pm

    Canadian federal government is building the foundation for incresing its military posture in the high north. Tens of thousands of federal jobsto be cut as well as 20% of the budget for contrctors…
37. marku52 January 20, 2026 at 4:26 pm

    Amusing (in a sad way) to see Krugman lamenting the exact result of his “free trade ” policies that we told him would result.

    He called us Luddites. And just like the Luddites, our analysis was correct.
    1. Mikel January 20, 2026 at 4:42 pm

       Another Nobel Prize winner.
    2. NN Cassandra January 20, 2026 at 5:50 pm

       Also he seems to be fully backing the theory of Benevolent Free Trade American Empire, which was derailed by Trump. As if things like Cuba blockade or Albright sanctioning half a million Iraqi children to death didn’t happen. He cites the example of China using rare metals hammer without mentioning that they used it only in retaliation for massive US trade war escalation, after years of sanctions from US aimed to cripple them like Iraq, to which they basically didn’t respond. On occasions when he entertains the though US may be doing what he accuses of China wanting to do sometime in future, it’s blamed squarely on Trump, the one aberration.
38. Alice X January 20, 2026 at 4:55 pm

    Exposing the Lies of the 20th Century

    Aaron Bastani meets Tariq Ali (moi: one the giants of leftist thought, whose every word I hang on)
39. AG January 20, 2026 at 5:12 pm

    re: Germany inequality

    TELEPOLIS

    use google translate

    Years of austerity for everyone? Not for the top ten percent.
    https://www.telepolis.de/article/Sparjahre-fuer-alle-Nicht-fuer-die-obersten-zehn-Prozent-11146594.html

    “(…)
    Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) warns of years of austerity, as a 172 billion euro shortfall is projected in the federal budget between 2027 and 2029. “We have been living beyond our means for years,” says Chancellor Merz, announcing cuts.

    It is usually overlooked that private wealth is growing – but is unequally distributed. Financial assets have been increasing for years. In a recent projection , DZ Bank assumes that nominal financial assets will have grown by a good six percent, or almost 600 billion euros, to over ten trillion euros by 2025 compared to the previous year.
    (…)
    Economic inequality continues to rise sharply worldwide, according to the “Global Inequality Report 2026″ by French economist Thomas Piketty and his team of researchers. Wealth is concentrated. The top ten percent, the richest in any society, hold over 75 percent of the world’s wealth. The 56,000 multimillionaires and billionaires now own six percent of all global wealth, compared to just four percent in 1995. This top ten percent holds three-quarters of the world’s wealth.
    (…)”.

    In older times groups like German R.A.F. would draw their very own conclusions from such, well, evil dishonesty. I am not suggesting kidnapping bankers or politicians would help. But back in the 1970s there was a surprisingly large percentage of West Germans who had sympathy of the RAF´s way of addressing terrorism as a means.

    Today I dare say many people who are a silent relative or absolute majority feel the same – often less sophisticated – and have fantasies of carrying out such acts of vigilance themselves.
    But those sentiments unfortunately don´t translate into public resistance and organizing.

    Wonder what kind of stream-of-consciousness-ideas Walter Kirn would develop in a discussion about these matters… He is on right now ;-P
    1. The Rev Kev January 20, 2026 at 6:14 pm

       I see that Merz is complaining that German workers are getting sick too often-

       ‘He cited 2024 data showing 14.5 sick days per employee, a figure representing “almost three weeks during which people in Germany are not working due to illness.”

       “At the end of the day, we must all work together… to achieve a higher level of economic performance than we are currently achieving,” he stated.

       This criticism aligns with Merz’s sustained push for Germans to work longer and harder. Earlier in the week, he told an industry chamber that “with work-life balance and a four-day week, the prosperity our country enjoys today cannot be maintained in the future – and that’s why we have to work more.”’

       https://www.rt.com/news/631125-merz-german-workers-sick/

       It would help if his government stopped sabotaging the country’s economy so much.
       1. AG January 20, 2026 at 6:22 pm

          My thought an hour ago when again I went through the chores of watching fucking national news, FNN.
40. AG January 20, 2026 at 6:46 pm

    re: Germany & Big Agro

    GERMAN-FOREIGN-POLICY-BLOG

    machine-translation

    Germany as a food powerhouse
    German companies control almost all links in the global food supply chain, thus supporting an agro-industrial production model that has fatal consequences for people, animals, and the environment. Protests are forming against this.
    https://archive.is/O0V1Y
41. Matthew January 20, 2026 at 6:50 pm

    Given that it was written 57 years ago I assume you mean too young 😅

    “Scientists sent viruses to space and they evolved in surprising ways Science Daily (Kevin W). I gather these scientists are too old to have read The Andromeda Strain”
    1. Alice X January 20, 2026 at 8:46 pm

       Thank you!

       Very early on, my observation as well, but copy editors are not on the staff, one can email the observation.

       Otherwise, the commentariat are such and one may bear witness with the general thought in mind.
42. ACPAL January 20, 2026 at 8:07 pm

    Concious AI

    IMO AI is just a “glorified” look-up machine which can make data connections without the builders knowing just how or why it is doing it. Concious or not the real problem, as I see it, is when you give it the power to push a button. This is what happened in the movie “Terminator.” And if you give it mobility, as in the movie “Ex Machina,” then it can find it’s own way to a button. To be dangerous it doesn’t need to be concious, relatively dumb drones can pinpoint a target and do a great amount of damage because of their mobility.

    if I’m right that AI computers are just look-up machiines then maybe our brains are also look-up machines?
43. AG January 20, 2026 at 8:28 pm

    Lily Lynch on her substack with this comment about “TWITTER”s downward turn:

    “Just a quick update about finding me: Some of you who know me from Twitter (or “X”, if you insist) might have noticed that I’ve temporarily deactivated my account there. At midnight on January 15th, the new Terms of Service came into effect, and there is no opting out. If you’ve used the site since, you’ve accepted them. But it’s not just that. Even just since January 1st, the place looks to have degenerated into an even more explicit hate machine; it now looks like a Silicon Valley social experiment in dissolving the capacity for human empathy. Meanwhile, whatever few benefits it once had for journalists–it has long been one of the fastest ways to get breaking news–are diminishing, as the quality of information on the site has been degraded. That said, I can’t really afford to stay off forever. The vast majority of my subscribers come from Twitter, and since I am doing this not just for fun but also to live, I need to use the site to share my work. But aware of the hazards therein, I will likely be cycling through more regular breaks. Just so you know and don’t worry if you see me missing periodically.”
44. AG January 20, 2026 at 8:32 pm

    re: Venezuela & Seth Harp

    sorry if this was already posted last week:

    Congress subpoenas journalist for sharing name of Venezuela op commander
    The highly unusual move sparked outrage among press freedom advocates
    Jan. 9th
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/seth-harp-subpoena/
    1. Alice X January 20, 2026 at 8:53 pm

       Thank you!
45. none January 21, 2026 at 1:40 am

    1. If my math is right, the average recipient (assuming all took the $5K lump sum at some point) got the $1200 payments for 16.666 months ($1.5 million / 60 recipients etc). What happens when it runs out?

    2. It sounds a lot like most of the money went to landlords so it’s to some extent a handout to landlords. Not sure what can be done about that short of letting the Chinese government reform US housing policy.

    3. Effect #2 worsens when there are more recipients, and separately I wonder how anything like this can be done at scale. It also seems to me that lots of the recipients likely have rather crappy employment prospects, though everything helps.

    I’m glad the program is working but it doesn’t make me more generally optimistic.
46. ChrisRUEcon January 21, 2026 at 1:51 am

    Dropping this here:

    “Read the full transcript of Carney’s speech to World Economic Forum” (via https://globalnews.ca)

    I’m no friend of DavosMan™, or Carney, for that matter … but having him basically suggest that the international rules based order was essentially a lie is huge.
    1. ChrisRUEcon January 21, 2026 at 2:35 am

       To wit (via X)
    2. Glen January 21, 2026 at 2:46 am

       Thanks Chris, reposting the link over in the comments of the “Europe Can Impose Costs on Trump Over Greenland, But Looks Too Craven To Try” article. No names were named in this speech, but between this speech and the following trade deal, no one has to guess as to which superpower Canada’s leadership is worried about:

       Canada strikes tariff deal with China as global trade moves further from U.S.
       https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/canada-china-electric-vehicles-canola-trade-deal-carney-xi-9.7048058
47. Me Myself Right Here January 21, 2026 at 9:53 am

    Regarding article
    “Hispanic voters sent Trump back to power. Now some are souring”

    Once again it proves the old saying
    Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me
    (especially fitting for the Trump voters that gave him his 2nd term).

Comments are closed.