I don’t know anyone who, after understanding what CBDCs or stablecoins are — programmable money — wants to see them implemented. However, it seems that they are unavoidably coming to most countries, and they will alter the very fabric of society.
There are a small number of countries that have completely rolled out CBDCs: the Bahamas, Jamaica, and Nigeria. Adoption in these countries — especially Nigeria, the largest among them — remains marginal, even after the Nigerian government eliminated cash for three months. These countries could be thought of as test cases. There are other, much larger and wealthier countries that have ongoing beta programs.
China’s e-CNY has reached over $2 trillion in transactions and is active in over 20 major cities. In 2026, it is focusing on “programmability.” It is also being used through the mBridge platform for cross-border transactions between central banks in China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, and has processed more than 4,000 cross-border transactions.
India expanded its digital RBI pilot nationwide in late 2025. By 2026, it is testing offline functionality so people can pay without the internet — which is a major obstacle to general adoption.
Brazil is in the final stages of its “Drex” pilot. While it hit some privacy roadblocks in 2025, a full public launch is targeted for mid-to-late 2026. Following beta tests in 2025, the Bank of Russia is aiming for a full-scale launch throughout 2026.
These four countries have in common that they were founding members of BRICS in 2009 — the year that Bitcoin began to exist and one year after the financial crisis. I don’t think any of that is a coincidence.
The UK is finalizing the details of its own CBDC program, which could be one of the reasons why it is pushing for digital IDs. The European Central Bank is preparing to issue a CBDC, but since Europe is not yet a single state, it still needs to deal with its member states, and launch might be delayed until 2029.
In the U.S., the situation is a little different. As the Federal Reserve is a central bank in the same sense as its counterparts, there has been pushback against CBDCs. Following the GENIUS Act and executive orders in 2025, the focus has shifted toward regulating private stablecoins (like USDC) and “wholesale CBDCs” — a compromise between the banking and crypto lobbies, according to Matt Stoller.
I think it is safe to say that by the end of this decade, most technologically advanced countries will have some sort of CBDC or stablecoin working as currency. Economies will function using both fiat currencies and CBDCs for the following decade — or perhaps less, depending on events — until a possible total disappearance of fiat.
It is difficult to overestimate the magnitude of this change. I have argued that the digital is a new “central domain,” using Carl Schmitt’s term, and at its core is digital money. It’s already affecting macroeconomic calculus and geopolitical planning. Many, if not most, of today’s conflicts can be said to have at least one angle that reflects this shift. Some argue that it is the very reason for them. It will also affect the way we work, spend, and relate to one another and to power.
There will be two types of CBDCs: one to be used by populations and another to be used by states, banks, and large investment funds and corporations. The first kind is the “retail” CBDC, the one to be used by the population. It is essentially a control mechanism because currency ceases to have a nominal value and becomes a state-sanctioned token to be used when and how the state decides. It will also bring the end of anonymous payments and introduce automatic taxation, among other “liberating” features. From a state and central bank point of view, this is, of course, ideal.
The second type will be the “wholesale” CBDC, the one used by governments, banks, and transnational investment funds to settle their accounts. It will be built on the same blockchain foundation as retail CBDCs, but it will have certain features — like expiration dates and spending restrictions — turned off. It will function closer to current digital fiat currencies and, possibly, its strength will be based on the resources that determine its demand.
The result, essentially, will be two types of wealth: one held by elites — financial, military, technological, and political — who will end up controlling most assets, and one held by the population at large, which will be completely under elite control through military and surveillance technology.
CBDCs and stablecoins, however, will not, in a sense, create a new social dynamic, but rather crystallize the current trajectory. They will make it apparent that control of currency is power and that society is structured in a pyramidal form, with those who have access to currency creation at the top. Splitting money into two kinds only reaffirms this and creates a shield to ensure the continuation of elite rule over the population.
Elites in every field — financial, technological, military, or bureaucratic — will in effect become one, which, arguably, they already are. But what will determine relevance and status will be the ability to access non-fungible, non-programmable wealth. As this will create an almost total impossibility of upward mobility, these elites will become a close-knit network of wealth maintained through marriages (or reproductive agreements), inheritance, and mergers.
As financial technology demands growth, and monopolization is the logical path, the initially delimited areas where a digital currency is applicable will start merging into blocks. This is already happening. mBridge is a platform that is currently being developed by China, Thailand, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and, not surprisingly, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
The BIS is a supranational organization based in Basel that was set up in the interwar period of the 1930s and was essential in establishing the foundations — the rails — of the current financial system, and in coordinating monetary policy between Western central banks. What its involvement in this project signifies is that the core of the financial system — the financial “deep state,” if you will — is involved in the transition to the CBDC paradigm. It shows that despite geopolitical conflicts over resources, eastern, western, northern, and southern financial elites are moving in coordination towards it.
This was, perhaps, the logical development of the marriage between government and banking that happened in 1694, which gave birth to the Bank of England and the modern financial state. In England, and for the first time, the debt of the Sovereign had the conditions to become what became known as the National Debt — a concept whereby the debt incurred by the Sovereign no longer belongs to him, but to the entire nation.
This does not mean that in the year 1694 the State, with all the features by which we know it today, suddenly appeared. The State gradually developed into its full form in the years to come. What took place in that year was the coming together of two institutions, banking and government, in a new fashion, creating the necessary mixture for the unfolding of the State. We can say that the seed of the Modern Financial State was sown.
As a result of this event, the way people interacted with the government changed, including how revenues were collected, the creation of debt, the way capital accumulated, the meaning of money and investment, and many other collateral issues involving the basis of trading and finance between countries.
What we are witnessing is the merger between the Modern Financial State and digital technologies, which will, in turn, alter the same variables in a very significant way: how capital is created, spent, and saved; how taxes are collected; how populations are controlled through monetary surveillance; how countries or blocs trade with each other; what we consider assets; and, ultimately, our relationship to power and the state.
Historians of the future will probably point to the years 2007 (when the first iPhone was presented), 2008 (the year of the financial crisis), and 2009 (the year BRICS was founded) as the pivotal points of the beginning of the new social paradigm that we are seeing unfold before our eyes.
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Why? um… because it’s a scam designed to further enrich and en-power the already rich and powerful? (Just a guess. / ;)
I was curious about this myself and apparently the only major difference is that while regular currency is managed through commercial banks (accounting, transaction processing, etc.), CBDCs are managed directly by the central bank without intermediaries. So it’s interesting because it completely bypasses the traditional banking and payment processing infrastructure, completely depriving them of revenue.
So while it reduces the transaction costs and offers better account security (no need for FDIC, etc.), it also consolidates all your transaction into a single, fully tracked point. So not much traction in the US because we have massive commercial interests that are aligned against it in the West (commercial banks, payment processors, etc.), but it’s being implemented in regions where commercial banking interests are much weaker, so don’t have as much power to object.
It makes the Jacque Baud treatment available for all of is.
This collapse all the functions of money, medium of exchange, store of value, permission, to control.
In a world where 99% must trade their time/labor for permission to survive, this is as totalitarian as it gets.
I would say that is exactly right.
It is way past time to keep providing excuses for these elites. Pretending that there are “economic reasons…..blah blah blah…
The elites live in a world where finance meets fantasy, and they always have.
No matter what the cost… control IS the point. Now that technology is catching up with these perverse leaders wildest dreams… the only answer is “enough is enough”.
Digital control of money was just “conspiracy theory” in the 60’s… now….here we are.
I rely on my instincts of predators, which abound.
The ideal paradigm for this “Brave New World” will be to equate social predators with varmints. Anyone who has lived on or adjacent to a farm know what we do to varmints. We do it in order to survive. The analogy is exact.
Stay safe. Stack deep.
Indeed as to be foreseen
Perfect way to eliminate designated enemy or competitors.
What happens when the lights go out
This is my thought. Easier to debank someone when a private institution’s financial integrity isn’t at stake.
Can’t happen soon enough!
My gut feeling is that it would lead to a massive growth in the informal economy. With people trading their skills or goods with each other directly. Where they have the ability to do so anyway.
I watch a lot of gardening videos on youtube, particularly for growing food. It starts recommending related videos and they quite often go down a survivalist road. A common theme is the governmens trying to stop people growing their own food. Banning rain water collection. Making various things more difficult. It comes across as a bit loony at rimes. But then sometimes you think, actually they could be on to something.
i fully expect that that sort of parallel economy is what will obtain in places like where i live.
and likely some sort of clearinghouse/liaison function taken up by some people so the black and gray and white economies can interact.(similar to how the old, physical foodstamps were converted into likker or cash).
i also expect such brokers or sherpas or whatever we end up calling them will act like informl pawnshops…except not just for old drills and guitars, but for green beans and fresh eggs.
people always find a way.
and then the boss class finds out about it and tries to force everyone to adopt their paradigm(see: ebt cards), and on and on it goes.
i am reminded of the legislation regarding the internet that Taylor Lorenz has been on about of late…eventually, people will turn away fom the web, and the platforms, and email.
we’ll be doing face to face, and using couriers, and other low-tech things.
the way Islamic Banking works is prolly worth a look, if you’re thinking about positioning yerself as one of those middlemen/pawnbrokers/sherpas.
the methods of organised crime(“The Mob”), current and historical, are prolly worth studying, as well in this light.
as for making gardening, etc illegal/cumbersome…what i would watch for is something far more subtle: outlawing local currencies.
right now, and historically, a city or county or neighborhood is well within its rights to issue a local currency…the fed/treasury blob doesnt have a monopoly, at least legally(just de facto).
ive even talked about that with my local bank president friend,lol…during the 08 crisis.
he, rightly, didnt see the need, back then…but it was obvious that he had considered it as a worst case contingency(!)
and speaking of perfectly obvious: this is, indeed, all about control…of Us’n’s.
forcing the dogs to eat the dog food.
(“oh glorious brave new world…”)
i doubt that everyone is just gonna lay there and think of england, as it were…especially after the last 2 months’ revelations about who thinks they’re permanently in charge.
disgust is a hell of a drug, after all.
Some interesting points. I hadn’t thought of informal currencies. That makes sense that it could happen. And that people might have more trust in them. Of course one issue is that many people have no useful skills from their work for such an informal economy. But necessity is the mother of invention and most people can be very adaptable when they have to be.
I’ve been thinking more and more that people will turn their back on the internet as it becomes more controlled, more AI slop, and frankly more boring.
When Hamas launched their assault on Israel there were a lot of people surprised that israel with their well reknowned intelligence capabilities were caught unaware. It seemed to me the obviobus thing for Hamas when confronted with amuch higher tech adversary was to go low tech. Abandon mobile phones and email for planning. All planning down face to face. Runners used for carrying messages dedicated fixed phone lines at most. If your opponeny can read your messages at will then don’t use the twchnology that allows that.
“i fully expect that that sort of parallel economy is what will obtain in places like where i live.”
Foreign currencies may become parallel forms of money in that environment, at least as long as they do not fall themselves under the thrall of CBDC schemes.
“as for making gardening, etc illegal/cumbersome…what i would watch for is something far more subtle: outlawing local currencies.”
Oh, there are other, more direct ways.
Let me remind you that in certain European countries it is forbidden to sell non-approved seeds and to use them for commercial agricultural endeavours.
France used to have an extremely strict regime: only hobbyists could exchange unlisted seeds under non-commercial, non-profit terms from person to person; commercial farmers were not allowed to use them (had to use seeds from an official register, typically F1 from commercial providers), and were not allowed to reuse and exchange the seeds they may harvest from the fruits/vegetables grown out of registered varieties. Last I checked, the regime has been slightly relaxed to allow the exchange of unlisted seeds amongst commercial farmers, and the possibility to sell such seeds to hobbyists, but is still very constraining.
And if you think you can escape the monetary circuit, let me remind you that in some European countries, VAT is imposed on the agricultural production for self-consumption if its value exceeds a certain amount (IIRC about the equivalent of $10’000). If you manage to grow all the food necessary for an entire family, such limits are reached pretty soon. Of course, you cannot pay VAT dues by delivering crates full of apples or cabbage to the tax office. Actually, in most countries you no longer can by laying a stash of banknotes on the desk of the tax office either: you must pay via bank transfer.
if it gets to that point out here, i will formally secede my 20 acres, and hang the corpses of the first officials that challenge me upon the gate, as a warning
That limit on home grown food is very interesting. One descrption I’ve seen for the purpose of government within capitalist states is to ensure inclusion of the population in the market. Certainly here there are a few ways they do that. One being that even if i was mortgage free, had a fully functioning off grid electrical system, a borehole for my water and grew all my own food. I’d still need an income to pay council tax.
This is an important point
States such as Oregon (which is low on funds and needs infrastructure and education money) could surely issue Oregon scrip in payment for in-state services, and accept the scrip as tax payments or even deposits in a state bank.
I fear the tide is running in the opposite direction.
See: https://ambcrypto.com/california-moves-to-accept-crypto-for-state-payments-bill-passes-unanimously/
I am very familiar with Islamic banking; it’s conventional commercial banking rebranded. It functions similarly but is usually more expensive than traditional banking.
Take the Murabaha contract, for example, which is one of the most common structures. Instead of the bank lending you money, they ‘buy’ the item for you and sell it back to you at a markup. Both parties are then obligated to fulfill the contract and pay in full. This is just one simple example, but many other contracts exist to essentially achieve the same results as commercial banking.
However, Islamic economic principles are a different matter entirely. Under these principles, Usury (Riba) is strictly prohibited. But Riba isn’t just ‘excessive interest’; it is defined as any unjustified increase in a transaction. Part of this definition includes the prohibition of using debt to pay for goods or exchanging debt for debt.
This implies that fiat currency, according to Islamic principles, should be prohibited.
Try explaining that to an Islamic banker…”
I need to go back and re-read Kurt Vonnegut’s Player Piano. My vague recollection is that he foresaw much of what is happening now, but thought it could be implemented with punch-cards and vacuum tubes.
It appears to me that central bank digital currency is the only way to combine fiat money in a digital world (basically digital access to central bank reserves). I want my money to be digitally accessible but nominally safe like physical cash. I’m sick of needing private banking as a intermediary for that (and private money is not even a good alternative since it is not nominally safe because of the risks of default). I think digital fiat is the only way forward to avoid the insanity of a private money taking over and somekind of return to the ills of a new gold standard.
This is one of the biggest misconceptions about the whole CBDC revolution: the issuance of CBDCs will not mean the disintermediation of private commercial lenders, at least not the really big ones, as we noted in 2023 post about the Bank of England’s proposed digital pound, or “Britcoin”:
For CBDC to succeed, surely proles will have to be prevented physical ownership of valuable metals such as copper, tin, silver, gold.
In which case, lead will become the most useful and valuable metal of all.
Along with saltpeter, sulfur and charcoal.
i will only accept money that i can touch. i dont trust any of the institutions related to money.
because they have, failed to earn that trust…save for my local bank, that i talk about in another comment.(i literally know everybody who works there. as well as many of their relations…and where they all live,lol.many of those people i have known for almost 40 years….i have never shown my ID)
This is one of the most consequential developments of this century.
Crazy bad
Since we don’t own our bank deposits and in Australia at least the superannuation funds are mostly trusts operated by investment companies I think that the plan will involve an AI agent running your bank account and investments. You won’t get access to either unless you agree to use their AI agent which will communicate with the Central bank via CBDC channels.
Think of all the worry these wonderful people are going to save you, all your credits and debits will be decided by the AI agent.
First there need be the AI Agent. Wake me when that becomes a reality.
My first thought in reading the article was that locally people would find ways to work around the edges of the CBDC, to live off the grid as it were … maybe not entirely but certainly day to day. Amfortas mentioned, Islamic banking, a trust network. I do not know this for a fact but I would be surprised if there were not such networks for the transmission by working people of remittances to the family in their home countries without the necessity of any “official channels.” Since there is to be a hardening class system that exists in the US today with the top X% the First Estate, then Y%, the PMC et al and their sherpas the Second, and the rest of us the Third, the petty bourgeois and the working stiffs. Pre-revolutionary France is my model but wasn’t it Aristotle who laid out the progression from democracy to oligarchy to tyranny. The big difference here is that in this world there are no uncontrolled or debatable lands to which the dissident may run. The net of digital surveillance in its many forms tightens with each passing year. Big Brother was a piker. If it becomes a reality, it will also come to its denouement. How? Who knows. I would bet on climate change disrupting our various societies to such an extent that the needs for sheer survival will make the very idea of CBDC trivial.
I know by a fact that networks for the transmission by working people of remittances to the familiy in their home countries without the necessity of any “official channels” exist. And not only for remittances. Sometimes those networks work in more than two countries.
Use cash as much as possible. Use cash or checks in everyday transactions: at the coffee shop, at the grocery store, at the hardware store. Use cash or checks at locally owned stores of all kinds. Cash works when the cc readers are down for whatever reason. (That happens more often than you would expect.) Cash works when your phone app doesn’t, or your phone has lost charge, or has been lost or damaged.
And cash as anti-surveillance. As we say
my 2¢
im cash only.
have been forever(Tam used…as the boys still do…the debit card things, and cashapp, vennmo, etc)
i have only a savings acct, that ive had for almost 40 years with the same local bank, with only the one bank(no branches, just the one).
i know everybody that works there, including the president, and the owner.
i know where they live.
nd they know that everybdy knows where they live,lol.
that is the only security in banking.
my savings acct usually has around $2 in it.
because when my check from my lil pension comes in, i run down and withdraw it and spend it within 2 days.
the bank has never questioned this, nor bitched and moaned about it.
nor have they moaned when i suddenly had 130 grand in there, either.
that lasted a while longer, so i guess their interest gains on holding that for me made up for the decades of $2 balances.
ill ask my bank presnit buddy what he thinks about all this.
Seems that our elites have lots of things that they want to foist on the general population such as CBDCs, AI and eating ze bugs. Will they work? If AI is anything to go on, probably not but a lot of damage will be caused as these things work their way out. We may end up to going back to bartering on a local level in a parallel system as Amfortas suggests. But I am sure that our elites will still make out OK.
I think more US states should examine and pursue creation of a state bank along the lines of the State Bank of North Dakota.
Here’s a deep dive into the benefits of creating an individual state bank in each state, from Solari Report.
https://solari.com/what-the-states-can-do-building-the-legal-and-financial-infrastructure-for-financial-freedom/
Table of Contents:
Introduction
I. Preserving Cash and Checks
II. A State Bank
III. Protection of Financial Integrity
IV. Stopping the Digital ID
V. Private Currencies and Credit Cards
VI. State Precious Metals, Precious Metals Reserves, and Bullion Depositories
VII. Direct and Local Investment
VIII. Doing Business with the State: Banking, Reserves, Pension Funds, Contracting, and Digital Payment and Telecommunications Systems
IX. Recommendations to Reverse Private Equity Damage
X. Taxation
XI. Protecting Against a Land Grab
XII. Constitutional Protections
XIII. Food and Health Freedom
XIV. Conclusion
Endnotes
First para from the Introduction:
Introduction
There is only one way to stop central bankers’ push for full financial control and to interrupt the asset grab that is underway as well as other planned takings—and that is by working to ensure that the necessary infrastructure and conditions of financial transaction freedom exist,1 most importantly at the state and local levels. We define financial transaction freedom as the ability of people to use multiple options to enter into contracts and effect transactions on a timely basis at reasonable cost without interference.
I misread that as “Drek”.
You misread that correctly.
We would benefit from a more specific definition of programmable and non-programmable in this context.
Augustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), 2020, explaining the difference. utube, ~1 minute.
Agustin Carstens BIS GM Says The Quiet Part Out Loud Oct 19, 2020… CBDC’s & Control
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2PUOFGJRDE
Shorter, if I have a $5 dollar bill in my hand I can spend it however I like. If I have a CBDC equivalent in my wallet I can only “spend” it a way I’m allowed to spend it by CBDC rules.