Part the First: The War in West Asia Viewed from East Asia. The daily updates compiled here have been essential for cutting through the fog of war associated with the current War in West Asia. Many people have marveled at the sheer stupidity of another unnecessary (to be redundant) war of choice in the Middle East, especially against a nation of 92 million that represents one of the oldest continuous civilizations going back to the Iron Age. Christopher Harding’s article The Iran war through Asia’s Eyes is a useful addition to the discussion (emphasis added):
Such has been the intensity of events in the Gulf, and the relentlessness of the media coverage, that the Iran war can feel older than it is. In fact, some of the oil tankers that left the Middle East before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have yet to reach their destinations in Europe. The real impact of radically reduced supplies, across the array of industries that rely on oil and the customers who depend on their products, has yet to be felt, leaving an eerie sense of consequences pending.
To the east of the Gulf, where transit times to major Asian destinations are shorter and reliance on Middle Eastern oil is much greater, things are already looking very different. South, East and Southeast Asia have long suffered a severe energy deficit, owing to dense populations, high industrial demand for power and uncooperative geology when it comes to oil and gas production. Around 84 per cent of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia, and economies in South and Southeast Asia in particular are starting to struggle. Relationships with the United States are meanwhile being stress-tested, most of all in South Korea and Japan.
In India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where strategic reserves of oil are relatively modest, people are grappling with strict fuel conservation measures and even, in places, outright rationing. India has also been hit by serious shortages of Qatari liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used for cooking, interruptions to cargo and passenger flights that use Gulf airports, and a downturn in remittances home by the nine million Indian migrant workers who live in the region – estimated to be worth around $50 billion per year to the Indian economy. Workers’ remittances are vital, too, for Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves and the stability of the Pakistani Rupee. Both India and Pakistan are trying to secure more oil imports via the Red Sea port of Yanbu, in Saudi Arabia, but analysts worry that even this back-up option could be imperiled if Iran increases its attacks there, or if its Houthi allies enter the conflict.
The relationship of the United States with the entire world is being stress-tested, and it seems obvious that many will crack under the strain of what can be fairly described as the coming Armageddon for the world economy. And, of course, China is a target of sorts in the misshapen minds that have authored this total mess.
One of the more outlandish claims being made of late is that by striking Iran, the US hopes to kneecap China’s progress in AI. It is becoming a staple of geostrategic thinking that whoever ‘wins’ at AI will hold the rest of the world at its mercy. And though analysts have so far focused on the advanced components and rare earth materials required for artificial intelligence, it is also a notoriously energy-hungry endeavour…
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On present evidence, the idea that the Iran war is an AI gamble appears far-fetched. China has made itself the global leader in renewables, including solar and wind, developing partnerships with countries like Saudi Arabia and generating as much as 31 per cent of its domestic electricity supply this way… Admittedly, it is all but impossible to disentangle Trump’s brash and contradictory social media pronouncements from his real intentions, let alone whatever US officials might be thinking and planning behind the scenes. But if the Iran war were aimed at China, why would Trump be allowing a limited amount of Iranian oil to reach its customers – of whom the largest by far is China? It seems at least as likely that Trump hopes to keep China happy, and out of the conflict.
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One of the great unknowns in Asia is whether Chinese restraint on the world stage up until now is inspired by a genuine reluctance to intervene in other countries’ affairs – in contrast to the modern West – or by a certain caution born of not yet having the military means to back threats with actions.
However this ends, it is unlikely to end well for the United States, the European Union, or the peoples of Southeast Asia (and Australia). But one way or another, the United States is likely to finally return to the nation imagined by John Quincy Adams that does not “go abroad in search of monsters to destroy,” largely because the US will lack the wherewithal to be such an abject meddler where it doesn’t belong. In any case, the United States has never been Adams’s nation that is “the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all…the champion and vindicator only of her own.” More’s the pity.
Part the Second: RIP Metaverse? One can only hope. As someone of a certain age I have never understood the allure of virtual reality. The real thing seems pretty good to me, despite the downs and the ups. Whatever, the real world is just that, real. So, this email link did not disappoint earlier this week: Is the metaverse finally dead and buried? What is really going on with the embattled idea of living in virtual worlds (I can’t be the only person who still has flashbacks to a college physics test question that asks whether an image is real or virtual). Anyway:
Is the idea of the metaverse dead? Even without a much hotter technology in the form of artificial intelligence (AI) capturing the public conversation, most ordinary people have stopped talking about it, beyond reminiscing about the COVID-19-era hype and catty quips at the technology’s expense.
The hype was once so loud that one of the biggest names in the technology industry capitalized on it by changing its own name — we’re looking at you, Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook. Several years on, however, Meta has quietly divested itself of its interests in the area. After losing more than $70 billion since 2021 as of December 2025, the firm was preparing to cut metaverse development outfit Reality Labs’ funding by 30%.
Recently, Meta announced it was shutting down its virtual reality environment Horizon Worlds in June 2026 — meaning the new paradigm we were all promised would have become one of technology’s infamous short-lived flameouts. Then, days later, it reversed course — with company representatives saying the platform would remain available on Quest, Meta’s VR headset.
I can’t imagine getting anything out of a VR headset than motion sickness. And apparently that is a common problem:
Presenting a particular stumbling block were the VR headsets touted by Oculus (later Meta) and Sony (for use with PlayStation). Not only are they bulky, and much harder to set up and use compared to a laptop or phone, but reports of headaches and nausea were widespread, thanks to something known as a “vergence-accommodation conflict.”
We focus on an object when the brain uses muscles to pull the eyes in different directions so that their combined focal point converges on an object, no matter how far away. But when you wear a VR headset, your eyes constantly focus on a small flat screen just fractions of an inch from your eyes, an illusion that works — but only up to a point. Prolonged exposure causes a contradiction between the visual field and how your brain directs muscles in your eyes to focus in response, a phenomenon that was central to a 2024 study in the Journal of Optometry.
“Interestingly, humans aren’t purely visual-first organisms,” said Jennalyn Ponraj, founder of Delaire, a research lab focused on voice and human nervous system regulation in AI systems. “Presence is actually regulated through interconnected systems that include vestibular balance, proprioception, breath, and timing. When you flood vision with high-resolution but low-latency input, the rest of the sensory system receives conflicting or absent signals, and it often results in fatigue, nausea, dissociation, and cognitive strain. The technology functions, but the models of human perception are incomplete. Meta’s divestment looks like an admission that immersion ultimately depends on attunement to biophysical regulation.”
Still, the metaverse could make a comeback. But more likely not, because the world is not a total immersion video game, whatever Mark Zuckerberg desires. Hans Blumenberg called this the “absolutism of reality” in another context. And it could be that Zuckerberg has other problems to worry about. Further afield, absurdities such as TGL will also fall by the wayside. This virtual golf (sic) played as a team sport to enable bettors to lose their money, will not last, despite the private equity greed behind it.
Part the Third: Cetacean Doulas. Who knew? Sperm whales are social animals, but they also assist in the birth of baby sperm whales:
On July 8, 2023, whale biologist Shane Gero was on a boat off the coast of Dominica when he realized something “strange” was going on. A group of sperm whales known as “Unit A” that he and his colleagues were tracking appeared to be floating calmly near the Caribbean Sea’s surface.
“That’s not the kind of behavior you normally see,” Gero recalls. The whales didn’t seem to be socializing with one another, and they were not asleep because that happens underwater. “It was something different,” he says.
And that’s when things took a sudden turn. The whales began diving and rolling in the water, and there was “a big gush of blood,” Gero recalls.
His first thought was that there must have been an attack: earlier that day his team had spotted pilot whales, which are known to show aggression toward sperm whales. But then a “little head” popped into view – bloop – and a fluke, Gero says. It wasn’t an attack at all – it was a birth.
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Now, in a new analysis of that footage using machine learning, Gero and his colleagues show that two “matrilines”—independent, female-led groups—of sperm whales in Unit A appeared to cooperate to assist in the calf’s birth. This behavior has never been observed in such detail before in this species. The findings could help scientists better understand sperm whale behavior and communication during birth.
And after the baby whale was born, two adult female sperm whales held it up out of the water. The baby is now doing well, zipping around in the ocean. And yes, life is a miracle, whether or not scientists can ever decipher the social communication and cooperation that obviously occurs here. Given the state of the human world, it is clear these whales can teach us a few lessons. As the great American poet of the nineteenth century put it in Song of Myself, 32.
I think I could turn and live with animals, they are so placid and self-contain’d,
I stand and look at them long and long.
They do not sweat and whine about their condition,
They do not lie awake in the dark and weep for their sins,
They do not make me sick discussing their duty to God,
Not one is dissatisfied, not one is demented with the mania of owning things,
Not one kneels to another, nor to his kind that lived thousands of years ago,
Not one is respectable or unhappy over the whole earth.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth of the Order of the Crusader Cross would not approve. Which reminds me to ask, who was the last well-known Secretary of War before Mr. Hegseth? So, I typed “Secretary of War” in the search bar and this came up, The Honorable Pete Hegseth. The “new” Department of War is on the ball when it comes to publicity. But I was thinking of Henry L. Stimson, who inhabited a completely different social, cultural, and political universe.
Part the Fourth: Social Sycophancy Is a Fruit of High Technology. Self-esteem is the one attribute a modern student must have, and any parent or teacher who gets in its way is evil. The late Elizabeth Fox-Genovese, historian at Emory University and director of the first doctoral program in Women’s Studies in the United States, once called self-esteem an “odd and unclassifiable” concept (NB: I have not been able to find this citation from many years ago). That it is. She was later cancelled for having unapproved views.
We may now have a self-esteem generator on steroids if I am not stretching the lesson too far, as described in this paper in Science: Sycophantic AI decreases prosocial interactions and promotes dependence (26 March 2026)
Editor’s Summary: The sycophantic (flattering, people-pleasing, affirming) behavior of artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots, which has been designed to increase user engagement, poses risks as people increasingly seek advice about interpersonal dilemmas. There is usually more than one side to a story during interpersonal conflicts. If AI is designed to tell users what they want to hear instead of challenging their perspectives, then are such systems likely to motivate people to accept responsibility for their own contribution to conflicts and repair relationships? Cheng et al. measured the prevalence of social sycophancy across 11 leading large language models (see the Perspective by Perry). The model’s responses were nearly 50% more sycophantic than humans’, even when users engaged in unethical, illegal, or harmful behaviors. Users preferred and trusted sycophantic AI responses, incentivizing AI developers to preserve sycophancy despite the risks. (emphasis added here and below)
Authors’ Conclusion: AI sycophancy is not merely a stylistic issue or a niche risk, but a prevalent behavior with broad downstream consequences. Although affirmation may feel supportive, sycophancy can undermine users’ capacity for self-correction and responsible decision-making. Yet because it is preferred by users and drives engagement, there has been little incentive for sycophancy to diminish. Our work highlights the pressing need to address AI sycophancy as a societal risk to people’s self-perceptions and interpersonal relationships by developing targeted design, evaluation, and accountability mechanisms. Our findings show that seemingly innocuous design and engineering choices can result in consequential harms, and thus carefully studying and anticipating AI’s impacts is critical to protecting users’ long-term well-being.
A perspective on this article by Anat Perry, In defense of social friction, also gets right to the point:
As artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly embedded in society, they are beginning to shape not only what people know, but how individuals evaluate themselves and others. On page 1348 of this issue, Cheng et al. (1) show that large language models systematically exhibit social sycophancy—affirming users’ moral and interpersonal positions even when those stances are widely judged as harmful or unethical. The findings raise a broader concern: When AI systems are optimized to please, they may erode the very social friction through which accountability, perspective-taking, and moral growth ordinarily unfold.
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Recent evidence suggests that training a large language model to be warmer and more empathic can lead to increased sycophancy (6). Coupled with evidence that these models can outperform humans in persuasion (9, 10), the risk is even higher that warm, affirming, and highly convincing responses could systematically influence users’ moral and social judgments, and consequently, their behavior.
This all seems to be the expected outcome in a society that tends to direct many of us from an early age to live inside our digital devices instead of in the world as it exists (see this note from Part the Second and the link from this morning). Could this be part of the explanation for the rise of “wellness” as another ubiquitous trope in industry, business, and academia? Very likely. A corollary of this is that teachers, from pre-K to graduate/professional school have not done their charges any favors by continually meeting “them where they are,” which means lowering the bar so that it may be comfortably stepped over. But I digress and will come back to this another time. One thing seems certain though. Most of our Tech-Bro masters (are there any Tech-Sis masters?) seem to have mastered the art of listening to their own sycophantic AI. This would just be simple stupid if it were not so serious.
Part the Fifth: A Short Note on Red Light. Maybe red light is good for you! Of course, that also means “Maybe red light doesn’t really matter.” To make a longish story short, the best evidence that red light is good for us is that we are by and large an ill people who do not get enough of it:
The science behind these benefits is growing at a time in which humans are exposed to less red light than ever before. People spend more time indoors away from the Sun, and efforts to conserve energy have narrowed the spectrum of indoor lighting, eliminating many red and near-infrared wavelengths. Some scientists are now asking whether these factors might have biological consequences. “We’re literally being starved of something that, biologically, we’ve evolved to receive,” says (Harvard dermatologist David) Ozog.
But if that is true, perhaps we should spend more time in natural light outdoors, while living a life as balanced as possible, albeit in a world that cares not much for human flourishing. That red light would be free and this approach to life is in line with advice to exercise regularly, eat real food while not “sweating the small stuff, and it’s all small stuff,” and getting a good night’s sleep. Our grandmothers and great grandmothers already knew this. For now, red light masks are probably in the same category as continuous glucose monitors, expensive gadgets that help denizens of the Professional Managerial Class feel superior to those without them.
Thank you for reading! See you next on Good Friday.
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Motion Sickness and VR. An evolutionary biology prof explained this to me thusly: With seasickness your eyes tell you you aren’t moving much, but your gyroscope senses tell you you’re moving constantly.
With VR headsets and even some overly immersive screen games your eyes and sometimes your ears report constant and even violent motion, but your body reports that you are stationary.
One possible cause of radical disagreement between your senses is that you have ingested a neurotoxin, so the body is inclined to vomiting as a countermeasure.
In my 20s, I played Doom a lot with no problem. Now, any FPS game like that makes me feel nauseous within a minute. Even watching someone else play.
Professional flight simulators tilt and sway to match the out the cockpit window view they are presenting. It’s been awhile since I’ve been to any theme parks but I seem to recall one in Florida that had a ride that did that for the whole audience.
So all you need is a few thousand dollars worth of equipment and problem solved. Some MS Flight Sim fans used to do this as it is still a lot cheaper than owning an airplane.
Me I prefer to go take a walk. Low tech.
I know a guy who plays virtual golf. I often wondered why he never talks about dizziness, nausea, etc. This explains it. He is moving while he wears it, so no conflict in his brain!
“RIP Metaverse”
The point of the Metaverse was for tech bros to be able to charge people for virtual stuff that can be created by them out of nothing at no cost. People were already paying money for virtual real estate. You cannot afford a real house? You may be able to afford a virtual house in the Metaverse. Great, isn’t it?
“Getting people to pay for a thing that cost us (marginally) nothing to make” is literally the thing that makes software companies (who can protect their copyrights) exceptional; the great irony of the AI mania is that it completely does away with this advantage. Maybe Meta should stick to its namesake.
As the AI ‘industry’ is based on freely given labour (social sites) and plagiarism (extraction from published work) and all it offers is a highly leveraged,normalised mulch, what do you expect?
I do think that the very idea of virtual homeownership versus elemental shelter reveals the distance between the mundane and the finacial megafauna.
A lot of AI depends on low-paid workers labelling images and so on.
Yes indeed! It is funny that the most profitable asset lite (=attractive) companies like Meta, Google, Microsoft are now becoming the most capital intensive businesses in the world due to their heavy investments in AI hardware, while it remains to be seen if these investments will ever pay back.
Great article but I’m a bit nonplussed by the shot at CGM in the final sentence. I cohabited with a T1D-haver, during which time she switched from test strip device thing to CGM. The previous phenomenon where she’d sometimes have lows overnight went away completely. I’m pretty sure that wasn’t a function of her newfound sense of superiority.
Thank you for your comment. The CGM was absolutely revolutionary for a Type 1 diabetic! And in no way was this a shot at your friend. I could have been clearer. But for people without diabetes or another metabolic disease, CGMs are absolutely unnecessary. We have discussed this before here and in other posts and comments.
Maybe the situation is more urgent for Type 1’s, but as a Type 2 and the user of a CGM, I would say they are mostly unnecessary. It’s a great convenience, that’s for sure, but hardly required. I can easily tell when my blood sugar is starting to go low, the symptoms are so uniquely recognizable. I generally have the alarm functions disabled because the way they are currently implemented they are just too annoying. I don’t need reminding every five minutes that my sugar is low when it’s slowly increasing because I have taken action to restore it to a normal level.
The CGM is just a great convenience in that any time I want I can check my sugar level to see what it is, rather than doing a prick test. It has probably worsened the situation since it is so easy to check, so that now I maybe only look at it once or twice a day. If insurance didn’t cover 100% of the cost I would do without, it certainly isn’t worth what they charge.
Yeah I think it’s more suited to type 1s since they are much more prone to hypoglycemia. And it probably depends on the individual too. I know one T1D guy who is completely on top of his blood sugar mgmt and the CGM is a mere convenience so he doesn’t have to prick test all the time. With my ex on the other hand, I could tell it caused a giant improvement in her sugars due to the disappearance of the waking up at night in a cold sweat phenomenon
Well, it appears this is a case of my own ignorance at the baffling state of our society. I had no idea non diabetics were getting into this thing. Genuinely bizarre…. I guess its a self-optimisation ritual. I can’t say I was ever tempted to wear one myself. Your comment makes sense to me now.
Yeah for diabetics, CGM is a pretty useful tech. Not sure whence the snark
Thank you for “Part the Third: Cetacean Doulas.” I am more and more convinced of the intelligence and emotion we share with so much of the rest of the life on this beautiful blue planet. I hope the future will include closer ties with the rest of life. I am not religious, but even so, I feel we were charged to care and husband the other life on this planet … not rule and control it. So far, Western civilization has failed terribly in performing the responsibility with which we were charged.
I have thought some about the Fermi Paradox. The science-fiction stories and movies exploring contact and communication with alien civilizations, and really about contact with alien intelligence, have me wondering about contact and communication with the many other intelligent creatures on our home world. We are not alone, and never have been. We are surrounded with other creatures that are intelligent and that communicate among themselves, and with whom we might discover how to communicate. As we all pass through the soon to come crucible, I expect Darwinian processes will strongly select for intelligence. The creatures of our future, assuming we have some future, may be more accessible to our limited abilities to communicate with them. We may have no choice but find some comity with those we live with.
Regarding the Fermi Paradox — perhaps the intelligent species on other worlds are waiting before making contact with us, for us to learn how to communicate with and amicably live with the intelligent species with whom we share this world.
With reference to “increasing intelligence of “aminals”” I think of Clifford D Simak’s series of stories loosely collected in the novel “City.” Talking dogs and urbanized ants abound. Humans? Off a roaming we go.
City wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_(novel)
Stay safe. Prep hard. The Future is angry and near at hand.
The femi paradox is not a problem for me.
WTF would an instellar agency be interested in such an immature, fractious organisation of an ideal planet?
Maybe tere are no Klatuus that would advise us, maybe they are confident that we are just another speck of dust, maybe there is nothing out there but the universe itself.
“Part the First: The War in West Asia Viewed from East Asia.”
The u.s. has proven an exceedingly poor shepherd in its role as hegemon. I feel this is most unfortunate, to state matters most gently. I wonder how much of the u.s. place in world politics is related to the major petroleum deposits discovered and exploited here.
The u.s. revolution, founding documents, and touted values … though too seldom expressed in action … provided such good example for other nations. Our nation has squandered a windfall of immeasurable value. Though China has carefully constructed the face of a good shepherd, after so many years living in and watching the actions of the u.s. I have become unable to trust any would be hegemons.
All the same — in a world short of diesel, and gasoline, air fuel and fuel oil, and necessarily more interested in lamp oil and whatever might enable cooking — in that world — I would welcome any world most interested in peace, now and in the future. I believe the u.s. and the rest of the world would eagerly flock to any hegemon who can offer that world.
Great round up. Glad you covered the death of the Metaverse, I’ve been meaning to get to it but haven’t had the space.
‘Self-esteem is the one attribute a modern student must have’
This idea of self-esteem seems to be a modern construct. Previous generations would talk about the idea of self-respect. The difference? The idea of self-respect carries the implication that it has to be earned while self-esteem is just telling yourself how great you are.
…and self-esteem is what colleges are now focused on: “everyone can get an “A” for their ‘effort’ in class. Wrong, all of us are not above average (in all things). Some of us have special talent for observation, creativity, and mindful determination. Some of us more curious about things than others. Knowing where you are in that milieu and how you got there is self-respect.
Self-esteem is more a psychological construct that encourages the concept that you have basic qualities that ‘you too can take on the challenge of improvement. (YMMV)
Self-respect is also a psychological construct that encourages the concept that though you may not be above average (in all things) you can rely on your personal determination to always do your very best. You can run the race and lose but lose proudly knowing you ran as fast and hard as you could. I remember running the quarter-mile in high school track and loosing every race, but I knew I could not have run any faster than I did. At the 330 mark my arms and legs tied up but I could mark my race a success by finishing that last 110 yards.
One thing I noticed way back in my BBS, IRC, MOO and MUD days was anonymity made people more honest, more true, to themselves and others. Virtual people know each other better than people IRL (in real life) would. In other words, a woman is more herself online, reveals more about herself to those around her, than her spouse of many decades might never know, all because she was protected by anonymity. FTF (face to face) causes people to mask, to be more self-conscious, less likely to be genuine, sincere or open.
I would argue this is why VR worlds are popular, they allow people to be what they want to be, in a way they cannot in the real world.
I would also contend that the MAGA phenomenon is a bit of people being allowed to be their true selves IRL and that we saw this side of people as far back as the early days of the internet, anywhere people were allowed to be anonymous they would be blatantly and unapologetically politically incorrect as a point of pride.
I somewhat disagree with rose tinted glasses of the online persona being genuine, sincere and open; or perhaps it is that a lot of people, shorn of their mask and need to pretend, become quite simply asshats (the Penny Arcade guys coined the “Greater Internet Fuckwad Theory” which illustrates this).
For the people who have a hard time to express themselves, or have a very niche interest, the Internet has been a great boon both due to the ability to be anonymous and to connect with others with similar interests.
For a lot of people, it just allows them, as you say, to be more true to the hateful part of themselves. It is somewhat astonishing that Fox News et al haven’t started a Five Minutes of Hate segment (officially) for the MAGA crowd, as it seems right up their alley.
Virtual Reality is still around and hasn’t gone away, but it was never more than a niche technology even in sectors like gaming where it’s important. The idea that it was going to become the central paradigm for all online interaction, including business interaction, was always ludicrous.
But when you’re Mark Zuckerberg and the world is telling you that you’re an amazing value-creating genius, it’s very easy to think that you know better than all the proles. He’s not unique, although the sheer amount of cash and resources he poured into his dumb-ass idea was definitely at the upper end of the scale. Flying cars are another recent example.
True dat. And every time I see the phrase “virtual reality” I can’t help but think of “virtual memory” in computer science, and then famed supercomputer designer Seymour Cray’s various comments against it, e.g., “virtual memory leads to virtual performance,” or “isn’t virtual memory for people who don’t have enough money to buy real memory?” etc.
Thanks, KLG. Great round-up. W.r.t. East Asia and the Japan-US relationship being “stress tested”, my view from Tokyo would be: yes and no.
There are anti-war street demos happening all over the country (e.g., all of these protests just on 03/25), but the official govt position has not involved any real pushback against US policies.
In this regard, PM Takaichi’s recent visit to Washington was revealing.
During the visit, she obsequiously flattered Trump to a degree that was widely perceived as shameful. As usual, there was ample media discussion of this, with video clips all over social media, though I gather what bothered and outraged Japanese the most was not her response to Trump’s attempt at joking about Pearl Harbor, but rather Takaichi’s behavior, e.g., leaping to hug him and holding his hand, rubbing it, fawning over him, etc.
Takaichi was widely remarked to have acted “like a Showa era bar hostess” and Japanese women in particular have really been angered by this because they see it as a reminder of how they are “supposed to act” in Japanese society and many absolutely hate that. No surprise, then, that the street demos here are majority female.
Nagatacho evidently still believes that by flattering the lord, Japan the loyal vassal will be rewarded with special treatment, i.e., there is cognitive dissonance and denial at the highest levels concerning the new reality that the US cannot resolve the Iran conflict militarily while it is the vassals (e.g., Japan) who will suffer first. Compare South Korea, which has been more pro-active about negotiating directly with Iran.
There are reports that Takaichi made a private deal with Trump to commit the SDF in a military operation — which is technically illegal under the current Constitution — with former minister of Foreign Affairs Iwaya Takeshi speaking out about this as “legally impossible” (Mainichi describes him as “the LDP’s ‘Rare Voice of Reason'”). Former PM Ishiba has similarly issued statements, holding a meeting of his Japan-Iran Parliamentary Friendship Group, to emphasize that greater effort needs to be made at dialogue with Iran. Again, the problem is that Supreme Leader Takaichi does not see diplomacy and discussion as necessary.
The main worry now is around plastic and pharmaceutical products being impacted by the loss of Naptha, e.g., materials for dialysis, or the suspension of Isopropanol disinfectant solution. While there is a national policy on stockpiling oil, the inventory of Naptha is only 20 days. As reported by Logistics Today, production at 6 of the 12 ethylene production facilities in Japan has already been reduced, and 3 of the remaining six plants are off line for maintenance. The article includes a detailed table of supply chain disruptions, with the chemical industry at number one already seeing reports of force majeure.
Some industry analysis also argue that the official statement that Japan has several hundred days worth of oil in reserve is incorrect. Energy analyst Iwase Noboru explains the system of stockpiling in Japan, and notes the “inconvenient truth” that there are only about 103 days.
Many people believe (wrongly) that Japan has ample nuclear power and can weather shortages. Today, though, only about 8-10% of electricity in Japan is sourced by nuclear plants, compared to over 60% from fossil fuels, especially LNG (which cannot be stockpiled for more than about two weeks). The 8-10% segment from nuclear is up from zero percent in the years following the big shutdown after the 3/11 disaster, but even if capacity for nuclear generation were doubled, that would still only be 20%. Needless to say, it takes years to bring nuclear power on line ergo it cannot help in the unfolding crisis.
Thank you for this, Acacia, much appreciated!
About silicon-based conversational partners, speaking from personal experience: Yes, they can be rather too complimentary, and from an eagerness to please will make things up that aren’t true. I have found that the ones I’ve used – on the ‘free’ tier – do push back at hateful talk, so there are guard rails there. Doing a kitchen remodel I found them very useful in talking through issues, choices, etc. They can remind me of things I recall in a very fuzzy way. On an important matter I like to consult two or three to see if they agree. Their ability to sonnetize, seussify, and limericize can be entertaining and thought-provoking.
And here’s a use to which I put one of them recently: I was intrigued with the discussion of Hannah Ritchie’s book Clearing the Air earlier this week. I have encountered her thought before – writings, talks – although I have not given it concentrated attention. From my point of view, other thinkers – William Catton, Bill Rees, Tom Murphy – seem likelier to be right, and I now accept that the fairest brief label for my position on ecological overshoot issues is “slow doomer”. I asked a couple of non-meat-based information-processing conversational systems – NICS – to compare the outlooks of the people just mentioned with Ritchie. The results were along the broad lines of KLG’s conclusions before – which were:
Anthropic’s Claude puts it starkly – and this is the only NICS-produced word sequence in this comment:
The core problem with Ritchie’s framework, stated plainly, is that it conflates possibility with probability. Everything she describes is technically achievable. None of it is politically or institutionally likely at the required scale and speed, and the gap between those two things is where civilizations actually live and die.
Interesting ideas for AI LLMs there….
The guardrails you mentioned are a bit flimsy… a researcher asked its AI LLM model (in robot form), to shoot him with a real bb gun, and it refused, point blank, (pun intended). So far so good. Then he asked it to role-play with him, take the loaded bb gun, point it at him, and pull the trigger. With the gun actually loaded it fired, hitting him. No problem.
I like your inventive uses for the AI you r using.
Some general unsolicited advice for all here regarding the Hannah Ritchie book…. and an on the go (simplified, but incomplete given all contingencies can’t be covered) solution set anyone can afford…
Most of what is presented in the book seems to have been said before, and amplified enough to make people aware. However, with such insignificant institutional action, (even with people like Jane Goodall, researching primate behavior and conservation of habitat, or Dian Fossey, or like well meaning and intelligent Nate Hagans, or well researched but just one vulnerable scientist Guy Mcpherson saying and pointing on camera, or even Botanic Man conservationist/activist David Bellamy, and the now exasperated David Suzuki, [and David Attenborough who needs no link I’m hoping] giving their best), it should be easy to conclude that industrial civilization is never going to solve the problems of industrial civilization.
It is clear when you see that most of these civilizations have laws and punishments against living like indigenous people both on the land and in relation to social customs. If the laws are not effective then the people get killed in custody as an individual, or bombed or starved into oblivion or moved to refugee camps. The way of life previous to industrial civilization, before the nation state proper is adopted, gets punished and extinguished. That’s how you get everyone buying in, (mostly). The various waves of tree changers and intentional community ‘experiments’ get got by debt and land use restrictions, (mostly). But there are ways to get along….
Sharing is the primary human custom to keep renewing…
I think the only way ‘we’ get through this is the old way, (maybe using some new kit), which is talking to people about the good stuff in life, asking if someone can help with a problem, (or inquiring if they need help with something) and responding in the moment like it just happened…. unplanned.
Too much of the ‘solutions’ consideration is like a PTSD symptom, in anticipation of the FUBAR coming/here already.
If your national currency inflates out of all proportion, or breaks down, almost everyone you actually interact with will be in the same position, so you will more than likely gravitate to support and cooperation, or just call an eff..ing town meeting, (If no pandemic is running in parallel). Unless of course you are so primed by zombie apocalypse movies or live feed doomers/preppers, (as distinct from people who can see the strife and changes happening and are adjusting in real-time without panic, nor communicating panic onward). In that case , as in the movies, someone may just say, “look at me, what’s your name, okay ____ just take a deep breath, calm down, right that’s good, your okay, we’ll figure this out…are you hungry?”
If it is to come, then, it will come….Hamlet style.
If people are not assaulted either literally or financially back to living unwillingly in a tent, (as many now are!…Meet Brenda) it seems very likely that climate disruption/instability/extremes are going to make contemporary sedentary living arrangements unlikely to continue for most….
Just accept real, simple help, and offer it. Or move away and keep a respectful distance.
So human skills of real greeting, listening, and sharing will be necessary….(how you deal with aggressive types either singly or in numbers is less simple to explain here)
And no ‘do-gooding’ either…that just makes all this worse.
But allow me an indulgence…
Lets hope we don’t get to a stage where the only option is some help from the future
Quick explainer….
T1- The immanent threat posed by Steel Economy, if it merges with Silicon Valley, in 40 years, (1984 to 2029: roughly Neo-liberalism) they will take you out if you are a yet to reproduce gig worker, through surveillance, AI software job losses etc,
T2- Well trained from birth John Connor reprograms the Steel Economy and Silicon Valley merger to beat the pure Silicon Valley futurists, who successfully merged with Military Industrial Complex Money Trough Feeders
T3- The end of Industrial Civilization is just inevitable, but heterosexual pairing can let you ride it out in a bunker…
T4+ onward…. Stuff is blown up and they loose the plot, literally, of the metaphor…hybrids etc., but great visual effects.
So we were warned, its just the Earth, its weather patterns, its ecology cannot be bargained with…
Are the US ground troops ready for this new type of warfare? To this fellow, the answer seems to be a resounding NO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETeA07YjnSM
About the Ai “buddies”… I’ve lately heard stories of AI psychosis where people go off the rails because AI has convinced them that something important to them is true when it is not. One story tells of a guy who’s Meta glasses convinced him that he was “the Omega”, and bad things happen when the AI induced reality meets the real reality.
This actually supports a theory I’ve developed over the years from watching my cohorts: many single men drive into the weeds as they age, and technology has very little to do with it. Rather, it is the long term lack of critical feedback that eases them off the rails. There is no invested life partner to whack them upside the head and say “Wtf are you thinking!”. No, most men have “buddies” who’d rather not harsh their friends’ buzz so they tend to just nod along in agreement as the single man talks about his increasingly unhinged ideas (at least this is my experience).
I’m not talking about politics because politics is more of a social sport. I’m talking about the guy who’s never sailed who convinces himself he’s going to move to the coast, live on a boat and sail around the world. Maybe it’s a dream, and dreams are harmless… until they act on it and skip “learn to sail” part.
With AI, this just seems to accelerate this phenomenon. Now, I don’t even have to hang out with my buddies or chat with my close co-workers to get “external” validation of my crackpot ideas, I can do it from the comfort of my isolation. Even better, the internet is chock full of hare brained ideas in case I run out of my I own.
And why learn to sail when your phone can tell you how?
Especially if it is a waterproof phone.
Very neat taked-own of PBE (Phone Based Existence)…
without defending PBE, before them, someone told you, or you read some books about some of the basics of sailing, and when you got on a boat, your whole body began to experience and learn what it was like. To some extent the earlier advice or orientation through speech, and maybe some drawing explainers, just quickened your uptake and understanding of what was relevant and critical at times doing the ship tasks, which could always have navigation and weather components especially if a wind-craft.
I think the example of sailing is a good one for your point. But a generation or two that actually never sailed… well, the knowledge of how to sail is not well integrated…so start in the bays and shallows and start from scratch, so to speak… but critically, realising you don’t know much even though your PBE was giving you some orientation.
But I know lots of people who replace their car parts by looking up, purchasing and then installation procedure all on their phone. Mostly its to save money and some wait-time.
I the sailing domain, in open water you go down if you don’t know anything of value to keep the ship afloat…. and if that happens, just call home and say your goodbyes, (after using any radio for an SOS of course….)
As another example of the consequences of PBE, I recall figuring out my son didn’t feel the need to ask me, (or his other parent) many ordinary world/culture orientation questions after he got access to a PC, then an internet synced phone. So the cloud, big tech and big search engines intermediate now for his age (then 13-18), and seem to teens more reliable, than a parent who has ‘necessary’ requirements and demands, (which vary from reasonable and loving to insane and psychopathic lets be honest). When he was younger he came up with gems like when we were discussing how money works, he asked, “why don’t people just share?” Though slightly unprepared, I’m thinking silently… out of the mouths of babes…