[We have, continuing with our new Iran war normal, have launched this post when well along but not complete. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version or refresh your browsers then]
Even though the Administration has scored a temporary win via messaging that has sufficiently calmed Mr. Market so as to lower oil prices below $100, the fundamental condition of the US and Israel in the Iran war continues to deteriorate. Those of you who watched the financial crisis carefully saw a similar dynamic: the crisis went through three acute phases, spaced about six month apart, before the Lehman collapse. Each time, the authorities pulled together some emergency facilities and did enough of a job of convincing investors that they were on top of things that the panic receded. But as we and quite a few others described at the time, they had not addressed the fundamental decay among subprime borrowers or even gotten on top of where related credit default swap exposure sat, hence conditions would continue to erode.
We sincerely doubt that it will take anywhere near as long as six months for investors to recognize that this situation is not like financial upheaval, where a Greenspan-Bernanke-Yellen-presumed Powell put to bail them out. This is an accelerating real economy crisis, with downsides far more vast and comprehensive than even in the 2008 global crisis. That merely threatened the critical payment system but would have left productive capacity intact. As we have explained previously, the exposure here is not merely an energy price shock, as bad as that is. Nor is the risk even just that of energy shortages. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz also risks food supplies, chemicals, apparel, chips, and other key sectors which depend not simply on affordable but also on petrochemicals as a key production input or the Strait for transit.
Keep in mind that new tipping points are about to start kicking in. Kuwait has said will need to halt oil production in the next few days since it will have filled up its storage by then. We have pointed out repeatedly that not only can oil and gas production not be restarted quickly, but the “back to normal” time increases disproportionately based on how long the facility has been shuttered.
Even though Trump has projected enough confidence to apply balm to rattled markets,1 the content of his statements and his actions confirm that he is seeking an exit when Iran is not going to open one for him. Oil at a mere $90, charitably assuming that the Administration can keep feeding the delusions that go along with that pricing, will produce enough sticker shock at the pump and to other costs so as to fatally sink the already very poor prospects for the Republicans at the midterms. The Hill broke the story yesterday, Trump job approval sinks in new poll, showing a further 3 point fall to a net negative of ten points. The sample period was February 27 to March 3 and so would not capture the impact of energy price increase on voter views.
As we’ll detail below, Trump is trying to declare victory and exit, when the Iranians will have none of that, and neither will the hawks and apocalypse-seekers in his inner circle. His call to Putin on Monday to discuss Iran was an admission that Trump is scrambling for a way out.
If you doubt that Iran retains the upper hand, this video from Richard Medhurst, documenting the damage Iran has inflicted on US bases, should convince you otherwise. At 8:30, he remarks,”The Iranians have been pounding every single one of these bases over and over and over…They have spent the last few days pulverizing and grinding them into dust.”
Note that the Iranian strikes have also forced the US to abandon its embassy in Saudi Arabia.
Mind you, we had thought a way the US could be substantially removed from the region would be if the bases were both damaged and US forces were driven out, so that looting would help do the job. The Gulf States would then be faced with the considerable risk of allowing the Americans to rebuild (Scott Ritter opined on a very good talk with Joe Lauria of ConsortiumNews that the shambolic troop call-up was to secure bases and embassies). Iran seems determined to establish facts on the ground to make that even harder.
Moreover:
Hezbollah just cut straight into the zionist entity’s orbital spine. The SES satellite station in Beit Shemesh, sitting in the middle of Emek HaEla, is one of the oldest and most sensitive teleport hubs in the region, a 1970s-era backbone site built to push and pull international… pic.twitter.com/zORwC6nRwb
— Thomas Keith (@iwasnevrhere_) March 9, 2026
The Hindustan Times gives a fresh update on the punishment Iran continues to visit on Israel. I bothered by the way the headline and opening section personalizes the escalation but you can listen past that:
As DropSite News reported, Iran is both intensifying its efforts and shifting its targeting, since it regards part of its campaign as adequately completed for now:
Iran is considering reducing its strikes in most Arab nations that house U.S. military bases while expanding attacks against Israel, a senior Iranian official told Drop Site. Iran’s political and military leaders believe their ballistic missile and drone operations targeting U.S. bases and infrastructure have largely achieved their intended aim of degrading major radar systems and depleting stockpiles of interceptors, said the official, who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to discuss internal deliberations.
“This is a trend we are likely to observe over the course of the coming week in the ongoing conflict,” the senior Iranian official said. “There has been no change to the overall strategy—this continues the previous defensive approach. In the coming days, it is likely that operations will place greater emphasis on targets associated with Israel, while attacks on U.S. bases in the region may decrease to some extent. However, this reduction may not apply to U.S. bases in two particular countries, where such actions could continue.”
The Iranian official declined to name the countries, but over the past two days, Iran has escalated its attacks in Bahrain, which houses the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet and plays a central role in the military onslaught against Iran. Tehran has repeatedly said it will continue to target U.S. military infrastructure in countries whose territory is used in attacks against Iran.
“Their territories were used to initiate attacks. We have the right to defend ourselves and this act cannot be interpreted as aggression against other countries,” said Esmail Baghaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, at a press briefing in Tehran Monday. “I hope those countries have learned the lesson. We urge them not to allow their territories to be used by the U.S. or the Zionist entity to stage attacks against Iran.”
Janta Ka Reporter adds a key detail from the Iranian tactical shift. At 3:05, it quotes the IRGC aerospace commander as stating that from now on, IRGC will launch missiles only with warheads exceeding one ton, and that the frequency, scale and scope of missiles will also increase.
The Hill reports that on top of Trump’s wee Iran not-playing-ball problem, that he also faces a lot of deluded domestic players who want to keep up the fight, including, astonishingly, the Pentagon, which normally acts as a moderating force on war-happy presidents. From Trump, Pentagon give conflicting signals on end to Iran war:
Asked how long the U.S. military “excursion” into Iran will last, Trump says it will end “soon,” but not this week.
The Pentagon, however, was sounding a different tune earlier Monday.
“We have Only Just Begun to Fight,” a Pentagon-run social media account posted Monday alongside a picture of a launched missile with the words “No Mercy” superimposed over it.
“This is just the beginning—we will not be deterred until the mission is over,” an earlier post from the same account read, this time alongside a video of various strikes on what appeared to be Iranian targets. The U.S. military so far has struck more than 5,000 Iranian sites.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that his country was prepared to continue attacks for as long as necessary, and that negotiations with the US were no longer on the agenda.
Foreign Minister Araghch trolled the Trump Administration with his awareness of the power of the energy price whip hand, and that Iran has not only the Strait of Hormuz choke point but also the ability to hit Gulf ports and production facilities:
9 days into Operation Epic Mistake, oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing. We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites in hopes of containing huge inflationary shock. Iran is fully prepared.
And we, too, have many surprises in store. pic.twitter.com/UNQu0fVZE2
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 9, 2026
And since the Trump team seems to have trouble with understanding diplo-speak, it has had to communicate more tersely. Bloomberg is getting the message even if the Administration keeps refusing to. Its big banner headline at 7:30 AM EDT:
Yet there is remotely adequate media challenges to deranged Trump messaging, such as show in the (admittedly captive) CBS headline: Trump says “the war is very complete,” and he’s considering taking over Strait of Hormuz. Daniel Davis showed a longer-form version with a long-form version of Trump’s remarks:
Larry Johnson recaps an important Wall Street Journal report on Trump’s scramble to find an exit ramp and adds important information in Growing Doubts by US and Israel About the War with Iran (emphasis his):
Trump’s advisers have urged him privately to look for an exit plan from the Iran war amid spiking oil prices and concerns that a prolonged conflict could spark political backlash, according to WSJ. Officials close to the president are urging him to start outlining an exit strategy from the conflict while portraying the military campaign as having largely achieved its goals. Discussions in Washington are increasingly focused on declaring success and shifting toward a controlled withdrawal before the economic and political costs rise further.
I think this explains why President Trump called Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has provided a readout of a recent phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that occurred on March 9, 2026 (Monday)….The conversation was initiated by Trump. The primary focus of the call was the US and Israeli war with Iran, with Putin sharing proposals for a “quick political and diplomatic settlement.”….
This does not mean that President Putin is going to pull the rug out from under Iran. I believe that Putin has two goals: 1) Keep the war from spreading, and 2) Secure an agreement that will remove economic sanctions from Iran and guarantee it will not face future attacks from the US and Israel.
Trump and his national security advisors are laboring under the false belief that Iran is running out of missiles.
Some key further details from the Journal story proper: Trump Advisers Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp, Fearing Political Backlash. Note this was a banner headline when the story went live:
Some Trump administration officials said as long as Tehran continued to attack regional countries and Israel still wanted to strike Iranian targets, it was unlikely the U.S. could easily withdraw from the war. Trump, in his Monday remarks, said he was prepared to continue targeting Iran if the country continued blocking the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump won’t stop fighting until he can claim a satisfactory victory, a senior administration official said, especially when the U.S. has a military advantage. Trump has at times been surprised that Tehran won’t cave despite the unrelenting joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign, according to people familiar with his thinking.
In the meantime, European governments are sweating bullets over their energy fix. From Politico’s morning European newsletter:
EUROPE FACES ENERGY PRICE SHOCK: EU leaders are drilling down on a range of options to lower energy prices that have skyrocketed due to Iranian attacks on oil-exporting Gulf states and ships — including price caps or the release of emergency oil stocks.
Ready to unleash: G7 ministers raised the prospect of using the emergency stocks on Monday, although French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said “we are not there yet.”
Special leaders’ VTC: Energy prices will also be discussed today in a video-conference of EU leaders ahead of a European Council gathering on March 19,..
No emergency powers: The European Commission has so far ruled out the use of emergency powers that would allow EU governments to spend public money to offset the higher energy prices…
Blowback: Leaders are concerned about political consequences. In Hungary, where voters go to the polls early next month, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called for Brussels to lift its sanctions on Russian energy exports to offset high prices — a call the EU hasn’t heeded.
A final speculation: I am less worried about Israel resorting to tactical nukes than I was earlier. Even though reports that Netanyahu had decamped to Berlin early in the war were debunked, I see no evidence that he has physical courage, much the less is willing to accelerate his demise. The fact that he has almost certainly enabled his son Yair to hide out disgracefully in Miami rather than serve in the IDF is indirect proof. Even if he were manage to be out of Israel when a tactical nuke was launched (would the minders of the Israeli version of the nuclear football tolerate that), he has to recognize by now that either a full blown nuclear holocaust or at least the conventional-weapon-flattening of Israel by Iran would result. Even if he managed to survive, unhappy surviving Mossad operatives would be sure to be out for his head, on top of pretty much all of the rest of the world. I cannot imagine he would live as long as a year.
Last but not least: if you look at the Janta Ka or Daniel Davis Deep dive segments, which include decent-length clips of Trump’s latest public appearance, even though his vocal timbre sounded pretty normal, he looks absolutely terrible. And his white matter disease seems to be progressing. You can see body twitches at some points in these videos, such as his arm jerking. This is a symptom of end-state dementia too.
____
1 Even though Trump said, and one of the Bloomberg banner headlines (which do change often these day) that Trump might undo the oil sanctions on Russia, I don’t take that seriously. First, as the Politico European update shows, EU leaders are not considering that step and they are the ones on the front lines of messing with Russia-oil-carrying tankers. Second, and readers can opine, it does not appear that these sanctions reduced Russian exports much if at all, but instead forced Russia to resort to complex travel arrangements and offer a hefty discount. So I sincerely doubt that any such move would add to global supply meaningfully. But Russia would make a lot more on these energy sales, improving its budgetary condition.
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PressTV’s editors’ choice page… Press TV is owned by the IRGC. You can dis-intermediate the engagement farmers
lots of interesting articles from today. it provides a daily briefing of Iranian actions, which are easy to verify via US/israel media, social media
IMO, the side that feels comfortable during a war has less incentive to obfuscate
https://www.presstv.co.uk/Section/13006
https://www.presstv.ir/Section/13006
I am well aware of PressTV and often linked to it in Links well before this war began.
I prefer to deal with the engagement farmers. What the Western press reports is what political leaders react to.
And many readers can’t access PressTV. It is blocked in a lot of Western countries.
Around a month ago, Roku took PressTV off their app store, at least AlJazeera is still there. Online, use a VPN through a free country, some plugins are available without subscription.
Roku is getting worse and worse all the time.
Thanks for the mirror sites. The version I got from search wouldn’t come through.
And even if the Iranians are also spinning it allows a fuller picture than our MSM stenography service.
Trump says he Epstein war is over and the oil markets react, they react to everything if they can make money. The US said it was going to be a short war and is due to run out of missiles in the next week so why would they not claim its over
How can the US attack Iran when all its bases that were used to attack Iraq are behind the Straits of Hormuz and its bases in Saudi Arabia have been emptied.
Without the oil the US can’t invade
Trying to bargain an Iranian occupation with Russia and China will not work China is not a US dominion and never will be
The longer the war lasts the more the western media lies fall appart
A few days ago, Iran granted Chinese ships passage through the Straight of Hormuz. Russia has enough domestic oil for its own needs. From MSN quoting Business Today.
Iran grants exclusive transit to Chinese ships
https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/iran-to-allow-only-chinese-vessels-through-strait-of-hormuz-amid-escalating-conflict/ar-AA1XvEhg?cvid=69b01bb0e99847deb34a36f42efbb374&ei=21
Iran is keeping China onside, imo. (T’s endlessly tariffing Ru and China probably helps keep them onside with Iran. / my 2 cents.)
That is the mystery… How are the US and Israel still launching air strikes on Iran if the American bases are significantly damaged? Are they flying out of Israel or using the airbases that are under sovereign ownership of the Gulf states(if such exist)? And would not Iran target those also? (Indeed, why didn’t Iran target Israel’s air base assets during the first 12 day war?)
It is believed that U.S. air assets fly in from incredible distances to perform their hits. I’ve read reports I find credible, of planes over Tehran but generally they are probably using stand-off munitions.
When/if they don’t have to do that anymore the damage could accelerate dramatically
It seems the USA has taken a number of air refuelling tankers off to Europe. If so, this will probably further curtail the possibility to organize those long-range bombing runs.
Sortie generation is now restricted to US carriers or NATO airbases. Hence the minimal sorties. And in cases with standoff weapons.
Israel seems to have working airfields. For now.
they might be using the same technique Israel demonstrated last year when they struck Doha (which I’ve been certain since it happened was a proof of concept for this war)
I was struck by a report on our local South African radio (which sticks close to the Epstein messaging) that oil prices had fallen due to a tweet from the US Secretary of Energy (know nothing about him) that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, and which was immediately denied by the US Navy itself and the tweet deleted.
This makes me wonder if the Trump administration is taking advantage of the wobbling oil prices to enrich itself. Surely one could make a lot of money out of driving oil stock prices down with a tweet, buying a lot of those stocks, then deleting and debunking the tweet and watching one’s new assets soar in value?
The public appeal to Erdogan to intervene conveys, to my mind, a sense of desperation. This does not “look strong” (a priority for DJT, per Michael Wolff). Is he going tone-deaf?
The whole arc of this story over the last 11 years has a bit of the feel of Ian Kershaw’s two-part biography of a famous 20th century figure, Hubris and Nemesis.
(US warfighting doctrine, logistical preparation and industrial base also seems more similar to the ’30s-’40s German approach of quick, very violent wars leading to swift enemy regime collapse, rather than the more methodical, mathematical, materialist approach of the Soviet Union of attrition of enemy military and economy to the point of system collapse)
I agree on the desperation. It also signals how Trump and The Crazies Around as so disconnected from the realities of the world. “10th dimensional chess”? Don’t make me laugh. These people do not realise that 98% of the world is against these attacks in a very fundamental way. Erdogan must be very careful. Even idiots like Merz or vdL should be very careful and they don’t know where the hell they are going when supporting this war. Not only because they have very little chances of achieving anything (the real losers here are them though Trump still doesn’t realises) but because most people is getting more than angry about the crazed imperialist policies. Very, very few believe the propaganda, things like this is because Iranian women or something. IMO, the circle supporting this shit is getting smaller each passing day.
Hegseth and Trump have enough nostalgic German Nazi 30-s – 40’s thinking to blithely blindly repeat the errors.
It’s 2026, Faith is in the mix, the weaponry is completely evolved.
USraelian policies are exhausting and so not in alignment with most C O T W. (Citizens of the World)
Hoisted from Jesse’s Cafe Americain this AM:
“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that any one who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.
Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seat at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance. ”
Winston Churchill, My Early Life 1930, p. 229
Wasted breath on Bibi and the Marionettes ( a crappy garage band too near us all)
Interesting perspective, hombres!
Remember too that the German war economy was fundamentally unsound. It was reflated with MMT (MeFo bills, parastatal liabilities issued to purchase real materials from abroad) but it had real economy dependencies on Sweden (iron ore), US/Gulf/Caucasus (oil) and USSR and various foreign territories (nickel, chrome, molybdenum etc from USSR and others; copper and tin from USA and British Empire; rubber from French and British Empire, Brazil). Swedish neutrality, US neutrality and Japanese or French Empire assistance might have enabled it to maintain and defend the Western front. But war on Russia destroyed its oil and mineral supplies and Japanese war with the USA destroyed its rubber supplies.
The USA and wider NATO/Western economy is facing the destruction of its oil supply and therefore its terms of trade plus China is strangling rare earths. Other commodities are for the moment in free supply but at high energy prices they will pose existential “guns or butter” questions to electorates who want domestic populists rather than globalist warmongers.
We are truly living in unconventional times. Obama took the JCPOA to the UN Security Council, rather than the Senate, simply because he knew that the Senate would not ratify it. Then, despite the fact that the UN Charter was a treaty ratified by the Senate, making it the law of this land, President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed more sanctions on Iran. Trump has now twice attacked Iran in the midst of ongoing negotiations. It’s not surprising that Iran doesn’t want to negotiate with him. I think that if I were in their shoes, I might float something unconventional–the outline of a treaty, appealing directly to the Senate and over the head of Trump and the Pentagon. They could decide what terms would be acceptable–the terms on uranium enrichment that they communicated to Oman’s foreign minister, an agreement not to attack other Gulf nations, free transit through the Strait of Hormuz, etc., coupled with commitments from the U.S. to remove its military bases from the Gulf, remove sanctions from Iran, and a commitment not to impose sanctions or military attacks without a declaration of war from Congress. Clearly, that would be met with howls from Senators, but the cost of not agreeing to a treaty would gradually become more apparent as time wears on and Iran continues to pummel bases in the Gulf and targets in Israel and the economic costs rise higher and higher. Obviously, there would be much to argue about, but the Senate would be on the hot seat. If they really wanted to get creative, they could make it a 3-way treaty and include some terms for Israel and the Knesset to consider
An interesting strategy, but technically the senate can’t sign a treaty. Their powers are limited to advising the executive branch (President) and providing consent (approval) of the treaty. The treaty technically still has to be negotiated and signed by the President before the senate can provide 2/3rds consent to it.
That said, it would be an interesting way to pressure the president into agreeing to it. 1/3 of the senate is up for re-election in November (assuming elections take place).
My native american pals might mention that US treaties are crafted to be broken.
While I want to be fair to Obama about wanting to do something constructive, he never should have gone down the road of “committing” to an international agreement to which he knew the U.S. would not be committed because of clear opposition in the Senate. You can’t expect your opposition party to keep promises that you made when they told you they opposed them and politically prevented you from making them legally binding. Obama’s writing checks that couldn’t be cashed was the beginning of the decline in U.S. credibility. To be clear, I understand Obama’s situation, which sprang from the Republicans’ unwillingness to play ball.
It’s sad considering that Obama was our first black republican president; republican bigotry is still too strong to recognize that. He ran as a dem as it was a clearer path to the candidacy rather than fight through the 7 drawf fight in the right . All he had to face was the unpopular 1 term junior senator from New York
Haha, Bush Bock (beer drinkers will get it)
This is the reason that Iran refused talks until France, Britain, and Germany said they’d step in to prevent any backsliding by the US.
The Iranians didn’t expect the EU to obey Trump when Trump told them “Down, play dead, who’s a good poodle?” with regards to the JCPOA.
He himself didn’t really commit, since the promises he made where never fulfilled. Treasury was told and they passed the mesage around that it is not o be taken seriously that sanctions were being lifted…
I know I’m a broken record on this but
… and then the US impose sanctions, and then they attack without a declaration of war from Congress, and then they withdraw from JCPOA2 or JCPOA3.
Maybe something tangible like releasing $1 billion in frozen funds when Iran can verify that those funds have arrived safely… and then the US freezes $1 billion in funds.
So unless Iran can take it or create it themselves and then keep it (like removing US bases and degrading Israel) … I don’t think there’s anything the US/Israel can offer that would be the key to ending the current Ramadan war.
Obama might the be US’s only national high profile politician that the Iranians wouldn’t dismiss out of hand. However, I don’t see him going to bat for the Republicans or a bipartisan AIPAC Congress – Obama knows something about backstabbing.
– Obama knows something about backstabbing.
Well, at least I agree with this part of your comment.
*zing!*
You miss that one of Iran’s goals is to put an end to the state of Israel. No negotiated settlement would include that, at least until all there is left of it is rubble. I notice that Iran is targeting military targets (mostly) and US-Israel is attacking schools, apartment buildings, etc. (Who are the terrorists now?) When the military “protections (radars, air bases, etc.)” are greatly diminished Iran plans to use bigger missiles to level Israel and there is little to nothing that the US or Israel can do about it. So far they have been using “new-old stock” cheaper missiles and drones.
As an apartheid state. That is an important distinction that people refuse to consider. If Israel were democratic and allow same rights for all within its settled boundaries, there wouldn’t be this circus. Israel doesn’t want to exist, wants to exist as an ethno-nationalist, apartheid state…
Nobody said destroy South Africa. Just down with apartheid. Same thing, down with the Zionist entity. Nothing less, nothing more. Everything more is an exageration by the perps themselves.
We got done a wee bit ahead of our new normal schedule. Post all done. Please refresh your browsers and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this message
I greatly appreciate your work!
All the commenters, too!
Pray for peace.
NO MORE WARS FOR RICH PEDO BANKERS
Pardon me, but wouldn’t this make it all right to start wars on behalf of rich bankers who have sex only with eighteen-year-olds?
Me too. I will remember when fund-raising time comes around again.
I think the Trump Truth Social thing is a parody?
Surely …?
It doesn’t quite ring true cadence-wise and if I Google sections of the text it only appears on random FB, insta and twitter.
Nothing like it on Trump’s Truth Social, but I guess it could have been deleted.
Edit: Trump’s actual posts are insane enough though!
Gah, you are correct. I was sent this by someone normally reliable right before launch time and did not check. i should have recognized the style was off (and there were not enough ALL CAPS either).
Removed but added that there are other indicators that suggest his white matter disease is progressing.
Thanks for catching this early.
I could actually see the Trump admin thinking about this. Turkiye has the largest army in Europe – apart from the Ukraine – and if he can get them to attack Iran, pretty soon an Article 6 could be called which means that all of NATO gets involved in an invasion of Iran. But this would be extreme desperation here. Trump would want Turkiye to suffer all the casualties of fighting Iran so that the US would not have to until the end, keeping the politically sensitive issue of American dead low. This idea is something that you come up with when you first few plans fall apart and you get desperate to try something, anything to get yourself out of the mess that you go yourself into. So give it time and we may hear this idea being spoken out aloud.
I think this would’ve been a feasible plan three years ago when people worldwide hadn’t spent three years looking at the gradual destruction of Ukraine. Erdogan is oportunistic, not stupid. The best thing for Turkiye and for him personally is to stay as far as possible from the Iran-Israel/U.S. war.
Using nukes would be an act of cowardice, not courage. With bullies, cowardice drives every move. At their core they are writhing in fear, necessitating projection of toughness and resorting to violence to attempt to control, precisely to hide their weakness.
And then they come across an “adversary” who does not cower as they would under the same circumstances and they don’t understand what is happening.
Yes but the point is Netanyahu is such a coward and a conniver that he must realize now given that Iran has the means to keep pulverizing Israel (Iran is known to have a dead hand capability and Iran is clearly not running out of missiles, plus it has tons of drones) that he could not escape the fallout, whether actual or the assassination sort.
Bibi’s been trying, unsuccessfully, to emulate his late brother for half a century.
The “late” part seems within his grasp.
If the Pentagon want to continue the fight, it is because they have been humiliated by the Iranians. When was the last time that any country inflicted this much damage on the US military? World War 2? All those billions of dollars of radars turned to ash because who knew that the Iranians would ever destroy them on purpose simply because they were so close? The Pentagon is now stripping other theaters of radars and interceptors much to the dismay of the countries that hosted that equipment but hey, Israel First, amiright? The Pentagon were embarrassed by the Houthi because they successfully closed the Red Sea but the Iranian (insurers?) closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a problem of much greater magnitude that they have no answer for. Unless the Pentagon can show a red, white & blue, mom’s apple pie Victory against the Iranians, then there are going to be some Senate panels asking some very hard questions by next year.
I would think that that US war planners had to be aware of the risk that their regional missile defense radars would be attacked and disabled. The Iranian strike, at the end of the “12 day war”, on the Al Udeid airbase damaged a radome and its enclosed communications antenna, demonstrating Iranian ability to target and strike assets of this kind.
One wonders what assumptions were made about our ability to persevere under sustained bombardment.
The Iranians explicitly said before the war that they were going to destroy the radars first. The Trumpenyahus thought regime change would prevent this or simply read less news than I do.
It’s probable Bibi’s only real goal was to stick America to this tar baby so securely that it couldn’t get loose. It’s a war against decline of the US public’s support for Israel.
If i were the Iranian targeting officer, i would wait for the US to send contractor ants to the radar sites, watch as they rebuild the things, and send a drone strike only when the first EM emission is detected. That maximizes US time, personnel, and treasure wasted while preventing a permanent alternative. This version of US military is dumb enough to fall for such a strategy.
Supposedly Hegseth demoted all the sensible generals and admirals and even Caine per that leak had told Trump it wasn’t going to work. The real villains here are in Congress. Somebody should seek out Elizabeth Warren and rub her nose in it. David Stockman in Antiwar says this will be the end of the Trump branch of the Republicans and the old country club version that he preferred–low taxes, balanced budgets–will return.
But the Dems whose line is to blame it on MAGA refuse to admit the truth that we should blame it on AIPAC. MAGA thought they were voting against foreign wars.
You’re quite right about congress, they don’t get enough heat for this. A lot of them, repubs and dems, really wanted this war. However, few wanted to take the political risk to pursue it. Presidents usually eat the failure for ill-conceived wars. The deep state (and that includes congress) finally got a president who was dumb enough to think he could pull off this stunt.
One glimmer of hope is the low poll ratings for dem leadership. Primary challenges are emerging, let’s hope we can rid ourselves of a few rotten incumbents. It won’t be nearly enough, though.
Agreed, but I think you forgot to include rotten R leadership incumbents?
Warren my junior senator is to blame, how so? I view her accomplishments as lying her way to Harvard and writing a book about the blindingly obvious and not doing anything about it
You have this wrong. She went to George Washington University on a debate scholarship, dropped out to get married but (it seems quickly) went back to college at the University of Houston where she got her undergrad degree. Got her law degree from Rutgers, not Harvard. She was a full prof at UPenn in an endowed chair before she was recruited by Harvard, and even as of then recognized as the top bankruptcy expert in the US.
Bob Lawless & Adam Levitin over at credit slips are, imho, better bankruptcy experts than Liz. https://creditslips.org/
No, I know Levitin personally and he would never NEVER say that. He defers to Warren. Levitin is no suck up. I worked extensively with him when he was Special Counsel to the Congressional Oversight Panel and Warren was the chair. He clearly had deep respect for her legal chops.
Do not Make Shit Up.
Warren has not been a bankruptcy prof for many years but she was absolutely the tops in her day.
But that has nothing to do with the way she has prostituted herself since she became as Senator. In fact, it makes it worse because she clearly has the intellect to know better.
I didn’t watch the State of the Union but read that she leapt to her feet when Trump was pumping for war. If that’s not right then I still don’t like her.
Carolinian: David Stockman in Antiwar says this will be the end of the Trump branch of the Republicans and the old country club version that he preferred–low taxes, balanced budgets–will return.
Pretty to think so, if I were Stockman.
Historically, though, the social fabric of collapsing empires almost invariably mitigates against anything but inadequate and/or extremist fictions and factions rising to the top.
The tone of the pentagon screed that Yves shared disturbs me as a retire USAF officer!
Our oath is to constitution and we execute as ordered (if legal and within the US constitution), it is not honorable nor “professional” to weigh in on political issues!
Or toss out to the public unsolicited “advice”!
Remember T replaced several on the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Are the new chiefs yes-men looking to keep their positions? I hope not, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the case. As for Hegseth, he seems to me to be a yes-man in a position that’s clearly above his competence level. He’s a good cheerleader, though, so there’s that.
“planning? what planning? do you see any planning?”
Refencing an old dogfood tv commercial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSc1MtLqg-8
I’ve had this clip from Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome bouncing around inside my noggin since the war started. Robert Grubb’s maniacal delivery here is pitch perfect:
Plan? There ain’t no plan!
The Pentagon will continue to fight because Hegseth believes he, personally, is bringing Jesus back. Yesterday he actually said, “We are dealing with religious fanatics.” This is a religious war.
I would love to see all the religious fanatics take each other out but they have no right to bring us, not to mention non-humans, with them.
You’d think. But nearly the entire congress stood up and cheered the. Idea of us/israel torching Iran. ‘We were misinformed…’. But are they ready to stand up and blame israel?
Not sure we’ve reached peak humiliation, imagine Iran’s terms. Reparations?
And what if – shockingly – us doesn’t stick to agreement? Hormuz slams shut again?
While Scott, bless his heart, is right that it would be irrational to send troops into Iran, he has been (sadly and admittedly) wrong on the level of rationality in decision-making at upper levels. It is unclear whether such decisions will be hard-headed or yet another (strategy-less) roll of the dice (and given the realities of the revolution of drone warfare that the US has not learned – a blood bath).
For example, attacking an Iranian desalination plant is irrational.
Opening the Lebanese front when overstretched – irrational.
Martyring the leader who opposed nuclear weapons – irrational.
Totally rational to me when considering the Epstein Class runs everything!
Last known recorded meeting of the Epstein Class. / ;)
From the movie Time Bandits, utube, ~1+ minute.
Lasers, 8 o’clock, day one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1viWDlbxAsc
First comments from Iran I’ve seen even hinting at possibility of an offramp not involving smiting the US/Israel to pieces.
What would “guarantees” look like in practice?
How much more Iran winning would it take to get US/Israel to accept the reality and cave?
Gharibabadi Outlines Iran’s Conditions for Ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel (Wawen Iran news, quoting a TV address)
Gharibabadi said Iran’s actions are carried out within the framework of the right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.
He explained that the charter outlines conditions under which self-defense may end, including assurances that aggressive actions will not be repeated.
According to him, a country that has been attacked will continue its defensive actions until it is certain that such aggression will not happen again.
“If a ceasefire is to be established or the war is to stop,” he said, “there must be guarantees that aggressive actions against Iran will not be repeated. Otherwise, if another attack occurs after a few months, such a ceasefire would be meaningless”.
Positive to see signs of willingness to exit from all sides. Imagine we’ll have to go through some more death and destruction before we get there.
The thought occurs that the “guarantees”, to be credible, would need to be more believable than fragile promises made in treaties that could be subsequently repudiated; this suggests changed “facts on the ground” akin to what Russia Federation wants as a condition for ending its Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
We may yet have peace in our time.
The only way to guarantee any such peace would be Iran’s choke-hold on the Strait of Hormuz. If a ceasefire and/or a treaty is signed, then ships will be able to sail freely. But if the US and/or Israel reneges on it then that Strait gets closed again. As soon as this war is over you can be sure that the US and Israel will be re-arming for the next war but control of the Strait may be the only thing that will keep any peace. It all depends on how painful the closure of the Strait right now is to the world.
MAGA seems to think the strait is immaterial because pipelines. How pipelines are supposed to operate autonomously and continue if oil fields are not producing is not a question they will address. The strait is a distraction, and we should pay no mind.
Afaik the pipeline across Saudi is being used, for maga to be right you need new piped to carry 20mbd, that’s a lot. And would Iran allow them to be built? Actually, I’m puzzled nobody’s cut the pipe to israel. Us established pipes are fair game.
There were posts alleging Iran attacked the Baku-Tsibiliisi-Ceyhan pipeline. But nothing seems to have come of this.
Either a false flag or a psyop is my guess: the final leg to Israel is by ranker so Iran can just destroy the offloading berths in Haifa without offending its neighbours.
That is not enough. I’ll also ask for reparations, big time. Don’t care who pays them, US, Israel, or GCC.
Umm, note of caution in reading too much into statements by the Foreign Ministry of Iran already, the IRGC has vetoed statements from the foreign ministry wrt attacks on neighboring countries.
Moreover, Iran would be a fool to accept a Minsk2 settlement (even if they used the time to build a nuclear deterrent) the only guarantee is that US abandons its bases and the Gulfies swear neutrality (and pay damages) to Iran. preferably with Iranian bases in their countries.
OTH, Khamanei will make his mark as a leader, now, after the US murdered his wife and daughter and martyred his father. Given his military experience, I do not expect a peacenik at all costs – and he is above the Foreign Ministry.
I know what I would do if I had suffered his losses and it would not be peace.
I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean.
Art 51 is often misunderstood. It’s mainly about the functions of the Security Council (it’s part of Chapter VII) and its responsibility for peace and security. If a member suffers an armed attack the SC “take(s)measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.” However, while waiting for the cavalry, the text clarifies that of course “nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs.” The key word is “inherent,” because such a right has always existed.
There’s nothing in the text of the Charter that supports the idea of “assurances.” According to Chapter VII, the right to unilateral self-defence ends when UN troops arrive. What he may be getting at is the idea of a binding UNSC Resolution under Chapter VII that forbids the US and Israel from restarting the war, in which case this is grandstanding, designed to put the US in a difficult situation politically.
A competing quote
https://indi.ca/ramadan-war-8-9-its-all-downhill-from-here-inshallah/
I’m not sure they are contradictory.
Gharibabadi isn’t saying a ceasefire is close, or that Iran is looking for it. I read it as just saying: we need a guarantee (to our satisfaction) that this won’t happen again before we stop. I don’t take “guarantee” to necessarily mean an external thing – it could mean sufficiently changing the situation on the ground (w/respect to US presence in the middle east & some hold over Israel).
Tl;dr = until we’re sure this won’t happen again we will keep up the missiles.
It puts the ball in the Gulf states court re: their hosting of and relationships with the US.
I imagine that this is what Putin intimated to the current White House lessee as a way to resolve it. It sounds very much in the realist school of RF diplomacy to use int’l law mechanisms as levers and guarantees.
Ben Panga: ‘“there must be guarantees that aggressive actions against Iran will not be repeated.’
I struggle to read this formulation in the optimistic fashion that you have defaulted to.
Rather, this can be read as an Iranian spokesman alluding to the fact that at this point there are no plausible guarantees that the US and Israel can offer Iran. Therefore, the only means that Iran has to guarantee that US-Israel’s aggressive actions against Iran will not be repeated is to create real-world conditions such that US-Israel no longer have the means to carry out such aggressive actions.
In other words, this could be the Iranians stating that they’ve come to the same kind of conclusion regarding US-Israel that the Russians came to regarding Ukraine.
Russian and Chinese inspection of denuclearised Israel and of missile-treaty USA might go a long way.
I think one of the reason oil had such fast drop in price is Trump announced dropping Russia sanctions and Putin was ready to sellout Iran. Sure Putin did not come out and said in those words but that it is. I would even add China to list betraying Iran for short term gain. I am sad to say if Iran don’t have draw against USA. USA win world domination.
Please see my footnote re dropping the sanctions.
Iran has FAR more agency with respect to Russia than Ukraine has with respect to the US, and look at how Ukraine has not been brought to heel. Russia does not want Iran defeated. Iran is on the Caspian Sea, as is Russia, among many other reasons.
But I agree, investors are credulous and want to believe a bull case whenever they can find or gin one up.
I don’t want to put words in the man’s mouth, but the interview Helmer did with Nima confirmed that Russia and China will very likely betray Iran. From what I saw, Nima didn’t want to believe it, but it was solid analysis from Helmer. In my own opinion the way Russia is fighting in Ukraine isn’t about bringing Ukraine to heel, it’s more like begging the West for a peace deal that isn’t coming.
Helmer is not a China expert. Chas Freeman is and says no such thing.
I hate to take issue with Helmer, since he has done some excellent reporting, above all on the electricity war. But Helmer has been VERY fiercely criticized by other Russia experts for many of his recent calls. He sees Putin as captured by the oligarchs and views everything through that. He does make very careful readings of various official statements and tries to tease out implications from meeting protocol. But he has been consistently saying that Putin is selling out Russia in the negotiations with Ukraine and the US when nothing remotely of the kind has happened. I have had to stop running his posts, as I used to regularly, due to him being so off the mark of late.
He also personally hates Putin. Helmer was forced into exile in 2010 from Russia as he admitted (see here: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/exile.html), and is still angry that he was not allowed to return to go to his wife’s funeral there. But still has a bio that suggests otherwise and does not correct interviewers who assume he is there.
So if as long as Helmer (and perhaps Gilbert Doctorow, who has been running the nutty line that Putin is about to be on the receiving end of a coup) is the only person arguing this, I would not give it much weight.
Thanks for the background on Helmer. That fills out the picture. I skip over Doctorow’s interviews, his predictions and insights don’t prove as accurate as others. No one is perfect, but I don’t find him very helpful. Also, on a purely subjective level, he comes off as unnecessarily arrogant and I don’t like his “style”. I could live with that if his track record is a bit better. There are plenty of other great reports and analysis
He may get over this weird phase he is in so I would not write him off.
As a YouTuber who knows Helmer personally said:
My guess is of late that he has poor/manipulative sources and does not recognize that.
No, I won’t write Helmer off. I find him more helpful than Doctorow. The Youtuber’s assessment of him is insightful. Thanks again
Listened to his interview with Neima today 3/10/26 and thought this doesn’t sound right.
Almost like what is going on with Seymour Hersch.
One flaw in Helmer’s work is that all of his sources seem to be from The “Putin is a Big P***sy” school of thought, and everything gets spun that way.
Plus a habit of “inferring a vest from a button” that often leads him to make few to no facts carry way too much weight.
Compare Helmer’s interpretation of the Ushakov readout with that of Alexander Mercouris.
It curious that Helmer, an intelligent and knowledgeable figure who has at other times shown that he knows how to read between lines, here insists on an understanding that excludes the possibility that it’s not just the Americans stringing along the Russians but also the Russians stringing along the Americans, whom they must carefully manage not only because they’re untrustworthy, to put it mildly, and heavily armed but because they’re quite obviously not altogether sane—a minor matter that Mercouris twigged to, to the extent he finally has, rather late. Nobody’s perfect.
That’s basically my take as well. I get the feeling that the Russians are “shining the Americans on”, humoring them and trying to at least try to maintain some sort of dialog, no matter how superficial or ineffective. If Pres. Putin were not so overly cautious and careful,we might be in a much worse situation, as bad as things are.
As Yves pointed out in the intro, the US pres. has some serious mental and physical health problems. He and the rest of his regime openly mock the law, the constitution, basic human values and morality. Of course they continue a long tradition of US abuses, but the mask is off and the levels of corruption and criminality increase by the day. I don’t see any easy solutions, even if the loyal “opposition” takes both houses of Congress int the “midterms”, assuming they are not cancelled.
Thanks for linking that! Well worth a listen by everybody.
Re: white matter disease. I’m reminded how sick Trump was when he got COVID, so it’s conceivable that much of his health deterioration, including cognitive, is a form of Long Covid. (There are so many variants in terms of symptomatology, and there is some, albeit weak, correlation of rates of LC with severity of triggering infection)
Regardless, his rambling speech seems to lack any modulator/regulator and sounds more and more erratic than usual, like he’s confabulating on the fly…
Although his basic style and personality seem intact, I would guess these things will make it harder and harder for the MAGA faithful to claim it’s all 4-D chess.
One thing that struck me about Trumps news conference yesterday was how off his game the man was. He was having difficulty reading off notes, with the ensuing riffs being mostly rambling and semi-incomprehensible, clearly making up numbers out of thin air. The q and a was bizarre. He seemed so distracted that he kept calling on the same reporters (am I remembering that right?).
Overall, I thought he did a poor job shoring up the narrative.
maybe someone other than me and my diminishing white matter can recall the source article, but I remember having a lightbulb moment reading an article linked at NC a couple months back about the relative amount of doctor-approved amphetamines and other pharmaceuticals in constant use by white house occupants and staff (in part to keep up with the pace of meetings, etc.) and how DT’s first admin were heavier users than average.
The article going on to point out that there is no reason to think that use isn’t part of the current admin (along with occasional ‘recreational powders and pills’).
When I look at diminishing DT, he seems and sounds as strung out as users & addicts I’ve known, down to the paranoia and recklessness. Speculation of course.
Which is not to say that age & Covid aren’t factors, but I think about the possibility of an old man propped up by modern medicine. If that’s the case, ironic that DT has so quickly become like the diminished Biden whom he loves to insult at every turn.
Thanks. I wouldn’t be surprised about the pharmaceuticals. I don’t remember the article, but someone else here probably will.
About Covid, I consider it an accelerant as well as a confounder and a one-eyed joker.
Trump’s White House Was ‘Awash in Speed’ — and Xanax (Rolling Stone / archived) (March 2024) is the article you’re talking about
There was an earlier official report hinting at it
White House clinic improperly distributed controlled substances: Report (The Hill, Jan 2024) [contains link to actual report from Defense Department’s Office of Inspector General]
Hegseth has been Secretary of War for well over a year, yet I did not see a photo or video of him until recently from a clip on Judge Napolitano. My first thought was, “Is this (Hegseth) an actor?” My second thought was, “Is he addicted to psychostimulants?” Hegseth exudes so much delusional positivism and obliviousness to his own incompetence that I seriously thought it was an act. And if it were an act, I would trust Tom Cruise (also a religious nutjob) more to not cause a global catastrophe.
Then I saw the comic relief one or two days ago of the SNL skit and an actor playing Hegseth doing a keg stand. His alcohol abuse would be consistent with aggression and cognitive impairment. As for addiction, in my normal life I spend far too much time studying pain, substance abuse, and behavioral addictions. Trump, Hegseth, and others look like they are addicted to psychostimulants—amphetamine, dextroamphetamine (Adderall), cocaine, methylphenidate, caffeine, etc. Trump and Hegseth’s megalomania and machismo would be consistent with psychostimulant abuse. For Trump specifically, the strange facial expressions (tic?), the Parkinsonian shake, short attention span, and the impairment in executive control (in the neurobehavioral sense and the presidential sense rimshot) is also consistent with psychostimulant abuse.
The classic and strict definition of substance abuse is increased dopaminergic transmission from the nucleus accumbens to the ventral tegmental area. When this so-called dopamine reward system is stimulated neurochemically by drugs—e.g. cocaine, a dopamine agonist—the post-synaptic neurons adapt and de-sensitize to the flood of dopamine. This manifests behaviorally as increasing dosages of cocaine because (1) a given small amount of cocaine is insufficient to cause euphoria and (2) the subsequent withdrawal and dysphoria is so awful. All of this is consistent with neuro-imaging in substance abuse, and it could plausibly apply to behavioral addictions too. I am telling you all of this because it is plausible that the Epstein Elite have addictions to power and money, and this addiction is manifested by ever increasing needs to abuse people with power and money.
Trump has gotten a booster for covid last year. So at the very least he has a different idea for his private healthcare than RFK has for the public.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-gets-covid-vaccine-flu-shot-medical-exam-walter-reed-rcna236998
Re nukes:
My thinking is that the leadership and probably most of the upper/middle class have second passports. Witness reports of chaos at Ben Gurion. They are not cornered but their project may need to be wound down.
Were there any clarifications on how many of those fleeing (and fleeing is the word since they are not even allowed checked bags per Twitter) are guest workers, tourists and other non-Israelis?
Didn’t Neranyahu make it illegal for Israelis to leave the country during the 7-Day War? Why haven’t they done that now?
No idea how credible, but I’ve seen accounts from Israel saying that flights are being throttled to slow down the outbound traffic. This was explained as the cause of the most recent chaotic scene at the airport because a flight previously approved for 200 was cut to 100 at the last minute. People with valid tickets were upset at being denied boarding.
Iran needs to make sure Israel’s ports and airports are shut down and stay shut down so the only exits from the Zionist colony are via land through surrounding Arab countries. The inhabitants of Israel must not be allowed to escape to other countries anywhere.
If some come here, we can be sure that they, their children and their grandchildren will be agitating for us to get their land back for them, just like the Cubans, the Ukrainians, the Venezuelans, ad infinitum. It’s been a major factor screwing up our politics for a long time.
slight whimsical suggested correction, “…agitating for us to steal their stolen land back for them…” which would make them special in your list of other emigrant elite pining for lost shores.
Hezbollah is very active and appear to be dictating the pace of the emerging ground war south of the Lebanese “border”.
One gets the sense that for the Axis of Resistance, this is the “now or never” moment, a mirror image of the hopes of the Greater Israel crowd, but perhaps with a stronger basis in material realities.
For Hezbollah, it must be a case of use it or lose it. If Iran is defeated in this war, Hezbollah is finished as the Israelis will once again occupy the southern half of Lebanon and conduct continuous bombing of the rest of the country. So they are going on the offensive and if Iran can chalk up a win, then they too will survive as will Lebanon. So for Hezbollah, this is now an existential fight for them.
Yes, I recall a recent quote from someone of standing in Hezbollah saying something to the tune of “Iran didn’t ask us to join the fight. This is existential.”.
Almost 700,000 displaced, 84 children killed after Israeli strikes on Lebanon, UN agencies say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lives-being-upended-massive-scale-lebanon-says-un-refugee-agency-2026-03-10/
with video
There is an old quip from Wall Street types; You buy on the rumor and sell on the news. Thus, I agree that once the Trump rumor, about the war ending soon fades, the price of oil will resume rising.
The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, unlike Trump, has fought in war. He was in the IRGC during the war with Iraq and considered one of Iran’s strongest hardliners. According to the Iranian government, Khamenei’s mother, sister, wife, and one of his sons were killed along with his father in U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on the first day of war. I seriously doubt Mojtaba Jr. is going to capitulate to Trump on any issue anytime soon.
Rho Khanna has already pointed out that the war is costing us $1 billion/day. Soon there will be more backlash against Trump as people speculate what we could do with that money at home.
Lastly, as the US does most of the heavy lifting, it’s unclear to me how Israel is able to sustain an attack in Lebanon. Israel just might be dangerously overextending itself.
Russia is the only winner of Middle East war, EU’s Costa says
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russia-is-only-winner-middle-east-war-eus-costa-says-2026-03-10/
European Council President Antonio Costa
Absolutely! I’ve been saying to friends and family that the short term winner is clearly Russia and China will see its geo strategic position significantly enhanced after the bombing stops. Plus China is getting to try out its ISR capabilities and will learn from that experience.
Heckuva job, Donny.
The ability of the US to intervene in the Taiwan/China conflict has been greatly reduced. North Korea too.
It profits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise have been sent to support Taiwan. And it benefits from reduced attention to the Taiwan front as the conflict in the Middle East takes centre stage.(slightly altered quote)
I wonder if they are actually pulling missiles out of Taiwan as well now that South Korea is being disarmed – robbing Peter to pay Paul as they say.
South Korea on edge as US diverts missile defences to Middle East
As Joe Biden said “We are the United States of American. There is not a single thing we cannot do. Aged like milk.
China exports sharply beat expectations as trade surplus in the first two months surges to highest on record
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/china-trade-balance-surplus-record-exports-tariffs-imports.html
Iran’s economy has been badly damaged by sanctions.imo there is a real chance that any deal eliminates them and potential new straits closure is what guarantees the us keeps the deal.
A couple of points, Iran CAN NOT negotiate with Trump because Trump IS NOT CAPABLE of negotiating in good faith.
He can’t do it.
As far as American “Flag Officers” go, every one of them is the winner of a beauty contest, they were not selected for their competence, they were selected because they never recieved a fitness report that did not compare them favorably to Patton, Sun Tzu and Napoleon combined and they are deeply concerned about their second career on the board of Lockheed Martin or Raytheon.
The US Military has hundreds of “Career Counselors” and has for decades, these are careerists and it shows.
“Too much time with the troops” is a career killer and the troops know it, their Morale is bad because they know the quality of their “Superiors”.
Re: how our senior military leaders are selected, this item by John Reed seems to be of continuing relevance.
Thanks. This write-up from Col. Hackworth might also be relevant if one changes a few names and places.
Rule of Thumb: The only “senior” military officer whose judgment can be trusted is one who retired at O-5 (Lt. Colonel/Commander) plus the occasional O-6 (Colonel/Captain). They maxed out because they have an active bullshit detector and care about their oath to the Constitution and the men and women who are their responsibility. All officers with one star or more won that beauty contest.
Can confirm. That’s why my uncle retired at Lt Colonel. He tried being a Beltway Bandit (aka consultant) but the army still didn’t want his advice despite paying 5x as much for it.
Agree 95% based on my time in service plus ongoing DOD contractor time. I served with one fantastic general and one overtly political one who ended up being really good. I would follow either of them into hell. Both of these generals were engineers, one mining and the other wastewater. Coincidence? I think not. The others were essentially display models to be avoided, or worse.
Those big-ticket radars aren’t just for defense. They are also used for targeting. Their loss makes targeting more difficult and requires reallocation of surveillance resources from tasks that they are better suited for. Bullet summary:
1. Best tool for critical task blown up
2. Lesser tools brought in as backup
3. The lesser tools no longer do their jobs, reducing overall force effectiveness and increasing vulnerability.
don’t see this being picked up in non-business news, Maersk stops all cargo loading in the Gulf region (ex-Oman, but including the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia)…with actual letter from Maersk
https://x.com/JoshiEien/status/2031261136432279731
I don’t know how timely or accurate this Marine Traffic Global Ship Tracker is but it appears that there are just a few ships in the Strait of Hormuz narrows: Iranian, Chinese, and from a country designated KM.
There are several Large Crude Carriers doing 100 knots (115 mph, 182 kph) on the ship tracking sites.
I don’t think you can use any of their data. GPS spoofing and jamming are leaving everyone blind.
This will also lead to accidents….
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:208690/mmsi:477223400/imo:9254850/vessel:CAMILLA
They are at 102 knots right now
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:459236/mmsi:538009584/imo:9561382/vessel:IMPERIOUS
99.5 knots
Does anyone know why they are reporting as way over speed? What would cause that? What sort of spoofing would lead to ships being reported at speeds of 100 knots?
The clusters of ships west of Dubai are the craziest. They’re doing 100 knots a few feet from each other. A few are slower at 50 knots.
GPS jamming.
Wondering about the failure mode. I can see jamming stopping the ships from reporting their position.
What I can’t see is how *they* are able to make the ships report 100mph speeds. Some are just 65 mph. That seems different from jamming.
That’s the ISO country code for Comoros!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_3166-1_alpha-2#KM
Thanks for posting the Richard Medhurst video. The Iranian strategy of “blinding” the US/ISR via destruction of regional radar systems has been a topic of discussion here, and Medhurst has done us the service of documenting enough details to achieve a robust confidence level, no small feat in the fog of war. He also makes the important connection between the destruction of these radars and the documented loss of time between warning notices and sirens regarding incoming missiles.
Ushakov´s statement on phone call from the Kremlin site.
I guess that´s the closest to a readout we will get:
http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79294
machine-translation (via Yandex, Google refuses to)
Comment by Yuri Ushakov, Assistant to the President of Russia, on the results of Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with President Donald Trump of the United States
March 9, 2026
10:30 pm
Y.Ushakov: The Russian and American presidents had a telephone conversation this evening.
Donald Trump called Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin to discuss a number of extremely important topics related to the current development of the international situation. Naturally, the focus was on the situation surrounding the conflict with Iran and the trilateral negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement being conducted with the participation of US representatives.
I will say right away that the conversation was business-like, frank and constructive, as is usually the case in a dialogue between the Russian and American leaders. They have not spoken on the phone for a long time, the last time was at the end of December 2025. And today’s conversation, by the way, lasted about an hour. The US President noted that, as agreed earlier, such communication should, of course, be carried out on a regular basis, and both leaders said that they were ready for this.
The President of Russia expressed a number of considerations aimed at the earliest political and diplomatic settlement of the Iranian conflict, including taking into account the contacts made with the leaders of the Gulf countries, with President of Iran [Masoud] Pezeshkian, the leaders of a number of other countries.
In turn, the President of the United States gave his assessment of the situation in the context of the ongoing US-Israeli operation. I would like to note that there was a very substantive and, I believe, useful exchange of views on this matter.
President Trump has once again expressed his interest in seeing the conflict in Ukraine end with an early ceasefire in order to achieve a long-term resolution.
We have expressed our positive assessment of the mediation efforts undertaken by Donald Trump’s team and by him personally.
The current situation on the front line, where Russian troops are advancing very successfully, has been described. This, as noted, is a factor that should encourage the regime in Kiev to finally pursue a negotiated solution to the conflict.
The presidents also discussed the situation in Venezuela, particularly the state of the global oil market.
In general, I would like to reiterate that the conversation was very informative and will undoubtedly have practical significance for the further work of the two countries in various areas of international politics.
‘They have not spoken on the phone for a long time, the last time was at the end of December 2025.’
About the same time that Trump tried to set up Putin to be assassinated by 93 CIA-directed, Ukrainian drones. Fortunately the Russians figured that he might try this so Putin was elsewhere and not at his residence where he was reputedly waiting for Trump’s call. Trump tried to kill the King and failed which is never a good idea.
About the same time that Trump tried to set up Putin to be assassinated by 93 CIA-directed, Ukrainian drones.
I would not assume either that Trump had any knowledge or culpability there or that he did not.
Realistically, CIA and the deep state will continue their longstanding policies without reference to Trump, to some greater or lesser extent
My gut feeling would agree.
And in the end it doesn´t matter if Trump knew or did not. If he was opposed or was not.
Trump phoned Putin on the day. He then said that he would ring the Europeans to get their input so could he be ready by the phone when he rang back. And that is how you set up somebody to be murdered.
The only thing I think I know about Putin or Lavrov is this:
They both appear to have a firm understanding of realpolitik.
(Unlike, say, US Senator Lindsey “we’re going to conquer the world” Graham.)
German SoS “what-a-fool” unannounced “secret” visit to Israel. Details were not provided.
dpa reporting
Trump Organization (an abundance of Oxymorons) and its no-holds-barred approach to monetizing everything while staying-out-of-jail-at-any-cost makes any attempt at predicting the next several months in a two year election cycle impossible.
Shambolic chaos. It’s exhausting.
It is what the slim majority of voting registered voters brought on to the world in 2024.
Amazing neither Harris nor Trump obtained more than a pure 50% number.
I’m thinking that BOTH Trump and Bibi are so fearful of personal repercussions that they WILL go Nuke.
But it is all speculation in an inestimable flock of Black Swans.
If I wanted to disable an American carrier I would use a torpedo without a warhead.
2,000 Lbs at 50 MPH hitting one of the screws would do the job and designing a torpedo to target the screws would be trivial.
You might even bend the drive shaft.
Imagine towing one of these puppies back to the good old USA…
The Simplicius is saying that Iran is not going to hit a carrier out in the middle of the ocean but of course in the middle of the ocean their utility is limited. His argument is a bit of a straw man.
Take one into the Persian Gulf and hoo boy.
I’m wondering why the Iranians haven’t sent one of the subs on a secret mission to attack some port far afield, perhaps even US assets being refitted at home.
Kind of like the Russian guys that crawled thru the pipes into the Ukrainian rear.
I will go out on a limb here and say that the reason that Iran has not done as you suggest is because they are rational actors. Any attack by Iran on the continental United States, no matter the scale, would result in such cognitive dissonance among the general population (that is, having to confront the mistaken belief that we are safe here whilst we wage war over there) that there would be calls for nuclear retaliation. Of course, the people baying to drop the big one on Tehran would fail to consider the implications with regards to their own need to procure SPF 10,000 sunscreen, but still.
I do not see how the United States can back out of this war. Doing so would mean losing face, giving up control of the gulf, Israel and potentially, the dollar empire. Again, the argument against long term US involvement seems to be that financial costs would cross US’ pain threshold. But this assumes the US cares about such costs. If recent past is any guide, there is no evidence that this a factor here at all.
There was no rationality is starting a war with Ukraine and sustaining it. None is genocide of Palestinians. None in setting all of Near-East on fire. None in withdrawing from numerous nuclear treaties, arms controls, and UN institutions. The United States is a fascist entity. It is typical of fascist imperialism, to make violent action an end in itself. Complete domination is the final quest, regardless of costs. The Pentagon’s statements, in my view, should be read in this light. All US institutions are in lock-step on US hegemony project.
Should the costs become intolerable to the world, more pressure will come to bear on Iran, not the United States, because it will be widely judged — with reason — that the costs of the fighting the United States are incalculably higher than the costs of directly pressuring — even violently — Iran. UAE and Qatar have already folded toward the US camp. More will fall.
Hegseth threatens Iran with ‘most intense day of strikes’
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-iran-war-us-israel-strikes-oil-exports-trump/
Juice; Should the costs become intolerable to the world, more pressure will come to bear on Iran … because it will be widely judged … that the costs of the fighting the United States are incalculably higher than the costs of directly pressuring — even violently — Iran.
And yet what more pressure can be brought to bear on Iran than they are already confronting in reality now?
So I fail to see that the rest of the world has, and will have, very little traction on Iran. To the contrary: it will work the other way around, almost certainly.
Closing the strait doesn’t hurt Iran much. What kind of pressure? More countries attacking Iran? Eu/oz/japan/s Korea economies will be crushed without oil/gas, us has it but can’t see trump imposing price controls, so workers will pay world price. Markets already falling hard outside us, we will follow. Imagine a repeat of 2008, markets crashed hard, granted that might not be avoidable at this point because strait likely not opening soon even if ceasefire.
Imo pressure is all from the west to stop the pain, and they have no influence in Iran. And killing ayatollah has hardened minds there, I see them in this to the end, freedom from us/israel aggression or bust.
I am convinced the plan is to force the Gulf monarchies to deliver an ultimatum to the USA: either you make peace with Iran for all of us with the support of OPEC or we make peace with Iran for ourselves and OPEC embargoes the world until Israel falls in line. No more cheap oil or dollar recycling.
IMO. If the Iranians can have their way, they will not stop until the Americans are out of the Persian Gulf area permanently. The bases will be destroyed. The embassy attacks and subsequent departure of the diplomats is part of this plan. Israel’s survival is the only remaining question that can be negotiated.
There is no written “deal” the US can give the Iranians. The US/European history of deals over the last few hundred years show they are not worth the paper they are written on.
Like Russia, it is now going to be changed facts on the ground. Diplomats can come back when the facts on the ground have changed.
Thanks to all of you for an oasis of rationality and decorum.
“Israel’s survival is the only remaining question that can be negotiated.”
Correction: “Greater Israel”…
As long as the zionist entity, a.k.a. israel, exists, the americans will also be there.
The US embassies in Beirut and in the famous Baghdad “Green Zone” are looking like prime targets as of now. Whether Iran ends up nailing them may be a function of how long the campaign goes on and whether they run out of other priority targets. So far the Kurds and Azeris and Balochistanis seem to be wisely staying out of the conflict, so Iran’s borders look reasonably secure; the only other players Iran may want to strain to not offend are Erdogan and Aliyev. But the CIA worms in the hearts of the Lebanese and Iraqi apples won’t have the same consequences if removed. And Syria would be well advised to sit this dance out.
Working list of Iranian conditions for peace per statements by Professor Marandi and recent statements by Iranian officials:
– Removal permanently of US military presence in the Gulf
– Transit fees for straight of Hormuz
– Guarantee of no future attacks from the US, in ratified treaty
– Full compensation for damage done to Iran
– Guaranteed peace in Israel, Lebanon
Transit fees are an excellent idea. If I were Iran, I would charge 1 rial less than the cost of going the long way. Take it or leave it.
I do not agree. I think it is Israel as a Zionist nation period. I have no pipeline to Iranian government thinking so is all my guess based on much reading etc. They see Israel itself as the problem in the Mideast and so, at least, some believe it is time to remove the problem. Hopefully, I am being too apocalyptic — so this is just a guess. The next couple of months will tell.
I have seen the old crusader castles in that area of the world and that is probably what is now envisioned for Israel.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi was on Glenn Diesen’s YouTube today and said pretty much that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bjW0uh1J60
He also had a lot to say about dependencies, finance and capital. e.g. Qatar is essentially US capital infra, delivering oil, depositing dollars, buying stocks and weapons, building, consuming. Without desalinization it’s over. I don’t have the confidence to summarize it all. Very interesting. I hope Yves gets to this YT, should be right up her ถนน.
Dare i opine that the side that Pearl Harbors their opponent doesn’t always have the ability to unilaterally dictate terms.
from a press conference.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/10/iran-war-live-trump-says-conflict-will-be-over-soon-40-killed-in-tehran
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar says his government is not seeking “an endless war” with Iran and will coordinate with Washington on when to end hostilities.
“We will consult with our American friends when we will think it is the right time to do that. We are not looking for an endless war,” Saar told reporters in Jerusalem.
India Snaps Up 30 Million Barrels of Russian Oil After US Waiver
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/india-snaps-up-30-million-barrels-of-russian-oil-after-us-waiver
posted today at 4 am
Indian daily oil consumption is in the vicinity of 5.5 to 6 million BPD (according to OPEC, amongst others), so this is enough for less than a week of coverage.
They appear to have about 5 billion barrels in reserve.
Worldometer – India Oil
Since the previous diplomatic issue, I remember they’ve been repairing the relationship with Canada.
https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/03/02/prime-minister-carney-secures-ambitious-new-partnership-india-focused/
Canada is also doing some repairing here as well…
This site has the most balanced presentation of what is going on, or that’s what it seems like. A lot of the anti-Empire sites jump on any positive sounding rumor and propagate it. Like, if I believed half of what I read on some of them yesterday, the Bahraini royal has fled the country, Ben Gvir has been killed by an Iranian strike, etc. Outside of a few sites, those stories aren’t being confirmed anywhere. And it seems pointless for Iran to even bother trying to negotiate with the US after the last two attacks in the middle of negotiations. I would say Putin might have to be the person who brokers the peace and promises to enforce it with nukes, and that Iran and Israel (if it still exists) and the US will have to agree to the terms he sets forth, which might be a “grand peace deal” that not only removes the US presence in the Middle East but gets him his European security architecture and the removal of all sanctions on all parties. But I think Iran has to stay alive and keep bringing the battle to Israel and US forces for another 11-12 days to really exhaust them. Hopefully no one gets crazy enough to use nukes before this is out, and that the finance gang doesn’t allow the destruction of all oil transport from Hormuz to become a long-term reality (since I can see Israel trying to turn this into an energy war, like Zelensky was trying to do, if they get desperate enough).
Agreed.
So far as I can tell, and this site is one of my primary info sources, reality looks something like this:
–Iran is nearing the ability to strike targets at will because it has successfully degraded the US/Israel ability to stop its missiles/drones for at least weeks (maybe months or more) through taking out radar and forcing US/Israel to use up their supply of counter munitions
— If Iran can hit Israel at will and won’t stop just because the US/Israel wishes, will Israel nuke Iran? Answer is an unknown, arguments can be made for both sides
–Trump/Republicans generally want Trump to TACO, but DoD wants to escalate not least because its run by Christian Nationalists who think they can make Christ come back, and even if DoD wanted TACO too, it doesn’t matter, it’ll be Iran that decides when the shooting stops
–Even if the shooting stops, Iran can still control the Strait and inflict economic devastation on Israel, US, the world…
–Markets are counting on a TACO and an open Strait soon
–the economic devastation of everything through now is greater than being priced in because the damage is slow moving but built in; beyond high oil/natural gas/gas prices, it’s fertilizer, sulphur, and everything made from petrochemicals that’s under price pressure, and the day after bombings stop is only the day rebooting the system can start; the reboot will take weeks. So even if everything stopped tomorrow and we had a free flowing Strait, which we won’t, price pressure wouldn’t ease for weeks.
–not even algorithms, censorship, and corporate media consolidation is going to be enough for the Trump administration to control the narrative on this, people will see price tags and know this war is why.
–the economy was already bad before this war launched. Not only was it K-shaped, job losses were accumulating and other than gas, prices remained high.
–all of the above is isolating Trump and the Rs politically, and he is escalating his efforts to minimize electoral damage to his power by trying to shape the how of the midterms. Redistricting isn’t doing it, so he’s focusing on efforts to suppress voter turnout (SAVE Act), and he may well try to cancel the elections or do martial law, which we’ll all have to resist and hope the rank and file soldiers do too.
There is something motivating the DoD more basic than Christian Nationalism here, I think. It is the urge to “Do Something” that is in the raison d’etre of the military — and the overpowering fear of military humiliation.
Re: humiliation, I think that an additional factor might be “comparison with performance of Russian Federation armed forces in the Ukraine conflict” and by implication comparison with the Russian way of war and the industrial policies of the Russian Federation that sustain the Russian way of war.
Literally everything the US does in military affairs may come under scrutiny. It could be an earthquake to the MICC.
So perhaps the services, especially Air Force and Navy, but perhaps also Army, cannot afford a US loss versus Iran.
What you say about the economic damage, and what I have read here and in articles referred to by NC seem to imply something extremely serious: an hysteresis of economic damage.
If this happens, then even if the war ceases definitely, the world economy will be structurally impaired in the medium to long-term; a return to a “normal” state will occur slowly, over much longer than expected, with a “stickiness” towards degraded conditions. Prices will hover at permanently higher levels, even when oil, gas, sulphur, aluminium, etc, from Persian Gulf states become increasingly available again. Actually, productive capacity will trail what was on line before the war, even if resources are re-invested into repairing the damage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hysteresis
Not to be confused with Hysteria.
you sure about that, Wiki?
This seems totally correct. Also CO2 emissions will probably fall (or reduce rate of increase) for at least several years due to MBD taken out of being burnt.
One of JMG’s stair-steps???
Like this guy is saying? https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-naphtha-heart-attack-why-120
But he argues that the US crude will become worthless… I am not eqpped to validate wht he is saying though.
Trump tells Republicans the SAVE America Act will ‘guarantee the midterms’
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5776058-trump-republicans-save-america-act-midterms/
Democrats Sue to Find Out if Trump Will Send Armed Officers to Election Sites
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/us/politics/democrats-sue-to-find-out-if-trump-will-send-armed-officers-to-election-sites.html
A report on an apparent attack by the US on Iraqi Popular Mobilization Unit forces in Iraq contains another interesting story —
A second Iraq War.
Makes you wonder why the Iraqis did not cal in artillery or air strikes onto those unknown forces – unless they were forbidden to.
Putting this report alongside the story on the AWACS planes fleeing their bases to Europe, and the stationing of an Australian Wedgetail reconnaissance aircraft in the region is consistent with the stories about the US early warning radars being taken out. If Prince Sultan and Muwaffaq Salti have taken heavy fire, I wonder about the fuel dumps and tanker aircraft stationed there. Sortie rates over Iran have reportedly dropped, and you have to wonder if a lot of F-35s are down for maintenance, or maybe were hit on the ground, or are having aerial refueling problems.
And yes, if the Iraqis know that there was jamming and tracking gear there, I bet somebody that can do something about it noticed, too.
Now this is all inferential, and based on single reports with problematic sourcing, but that’s where we are.
What kind of peace agreement is possible when US/Israel is not agreement capable, has repeatedly demonstrated it cannot be trusted to adhere to any agreement, has blatantly violated all ceasefires? I’m thinking Iran could negotiate with the GCC to come to its defense if attacked? These states at least still operate on trust. Plus Iraq, Egypt (e.g. the OIC), and perhaps Turkey could be added, perhaps India and Pakistan? What is the likelihood? A NATO sort of arrangement but for MENA?
A peace agreement that requires ratification (done with broad knowledge and consent) after a grinding process of bleeding out. Same logic for Iran as for Russia with Nato.
Iraq war’s aftermath was a disaster for the US – the Iran war is headed in the same direction
https://theconversation.com/iraq-wars-aftermath-was-a-disaster-for-the-us-the-iran-war-is-headed-in-the-same-direction-277585
See the list Socal Rhino gave above.
If after a few or several months the US, Europe etc. are really desperate they will have to do these things in return for the oil, gas, chemicals, investments, purchases, etc. that they need.
If Iran has shown that it cannot be bombed into capitulation and that it can stop shipping then the US/Israel doesn’t really need to be agreement capable in terms of peace treaties or any such documents. It just has to pay what Iran demands or it doesn’t get the goods.
A peace agreement also requires negotiation, which has been used by the US and Israel recently as a honeypot for decapitation strikes on at least two occasions.
CONSORTIUM NEWS
Crushing the Right to Conscientiously Object
March 10, 2026
Elizabeth Vos on the social-media suppression of information that could help U.S service people refuse to join the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran as fears grow that Trump will send ground troops into the conflict.
https://consortiumnews.com/2026/03/10/crushing-the-right-to-conscientiously-object/
If they send troops, will Tulsi resign? Susie Wiles?
Just kidding.
Wiles goes first ahead of troops, with an umbrella in hand “please follow me to our next tourist attraction”. To then step on an Iraqi mine from 1988.
3x DIALOGUE WORKS
1) John Kiriakou: CIA Hit in Iran’s Retaliation Strike — Breakdown of WAR
42 min.
https://rumble.com/v76wb6k-john-kiriakou-cia-hit-in-irans-retaliation-strike-breakdown-of-war.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v
2) Larry C. Johnson: Iran’s Missiles DEVASTATE Tel Aviv & Haifa as New Supreme Leader Takes Power
54 min.
https://rumble.com/v76w33g-larry-c.-johnson-irans-missiles-devastate-tel-aviv-and-haifa-as-new-supreme.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v
3) Col. Jacques Baud: The Middle East Just Changed Forever
60 min.
https://rumble.com/v76w0m2-col.-jacques-baud-the-middle-east-just-changed-forever.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_v
Jacques Baud is on fire in my opinion. A devastating analysis he makes.
Yes, thank you.
Oil plummeting on what looks like a statement from the US Energy Secretary that a tanker has been escorted through the Strait of Hormuz (just saw it flash across the chyron on CNBC at work)… unclear as to what direction the tanker was traveling.
Checked MarineTraffic, and a stream of tankers that have been anchored off of Oman are now heading northwest into the Strait…
Seems like this will be a pivotal moment. US calling Iran’s bluff, or backroom signals of a climbdown? Something else…?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/10/crude-oil-prices-today-iran-war.html
They’re just straight up obviously lying
Chris Wright, the Horse-sh1t whisperer.
“When questioned about buying the dip after his announcement, Chris Wright laughed and shrugged, sources say.”
Israel brings in 1,000 tons of weapons in 10 days as Iran fighting intensifies
Approximately 50 cargo aircraft carrying over 1,000 tons of weaponry, military equipment, and various types of munitions have landed in Israel over the past 10 days
https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-889349
US Energy Sec. posted and then deleted a post claiming the US Navy had escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz. Now military claiming no escorts has happened.
If you’ve been monitoring MarineTraffic, you’ve been tracking all the anchored tankers at the eastern mouth of the strait off the coast of Oman. I just checked, and it looks like most of those ships have pulled up anchor and are now heading into the strait. The majority have a UAE destination listed.
Not trying to speculate, but something is definitely going on. Those ships have been sitting there since last week and now they’re all single file going northwest.
i saw the post in totality.
the Secretary committed, by ignorance or by intent, a lie of omission (the ships that go through are Chinese or sanctioned by the US), that idiot statement was amplified by the clueless social media account manager, and then it was amplified by reflexive algos after it hit the feeds.
my bet would be on ignorance (not defending Wright, but he might not have even been aware that his speech might be tweeted). Efficient market hypothesis in action, lol
A tweet time of between 12:50 pm and 1:22 PM would match a 10% temporary drop in USO today.
From this mediate story I’d guesstimate a 1:06 PM tweet time.
Marine traffic was hacked by a GPS spoofing mission on a new scale obviously by a large intelligence organisation according to sources. They have investigated and say the movements were not real and are changing their collection practices so that this is not possible in the future.
Was this a stock market operation or was he trying for reality skewing in the name of Mr Trump
Can’t find an original source but osinty twitter claims that a $100m oil short was placed 5 mins before the “US escorting ships” tweet dropped.
US and Israel ballistic missile detection occurs from space. The counter-battery fire from aircraft on station returns before Iran’s fire reaches its target. If fire is not headed toward a US installation or an Israeli installation, it won’t be intercepted by a PAC-2 or Arrow at the apogee.
And, no, Richy, those ARE cluster munitions, 12 to 50 a pop, being released from the warhead at high altitude, not multiple independent re-entry vehicles. Ideal for anti-personnel in urban environments, and a slow descent to drag out the shelter alerts. Makes Israelis yawn more than anything.
Iran is firing at targets in countries that had nothing to do with the airstrikes, then apologizing about it. Iran’s command has been severed. Iranian fire striking pre-determined coordinates, not following actual counter-strike orders, and definitely not coordinating a response to the attacking forces arrayed against it. Iran even struck Oman, which is currently their ally, and hosting negotiations. Iran is wasting fire on Cyprus. The UK was sitting it out. But these targets were selected years ago for when the regime is turning out the lights on itself.
So Iran is breaking stuff owned by the wealthiest people on the planet, not the gear owned by Iran’s assailants. Deterrence against the Gulf States WAS working. But now monarchies with massive discretionary spending are opening accounts against a regime running on AI slop.
I demand more Hasbara posting to steel my resolve.
And I’ll second that. LOL. Like in balls of steel?
That above tweet was so cartoonish I imagine it is a production of Hasbara Barbera Animations.
“Uh, Bibi. I wouldn’t steal that picnic basket if I was you.”
“Not to worry Don Don. I am smarter than the average bear!”
Stay safe. Exit stage right!
Ha. I wonder if the poster is posting safely from outside of Israel. Inquiring minds want to know.
I assumed he was posting from a cafe in Manhattan where he and Ben in NYC (from a prior report) were drinking cappucinos in solidarity with their fellow, unperturbed coffee enthusiasts in Tel Aviv.
Also ideal for pitting runways…more difficult to fix than one big crater
You probably also believe Greedo shot first.
Are the Israelis yawning because of boredom? Or are they gasping at the yawning (and probably censored) holes and craters at IDF and Mossad headquarters? Iranian missiles appear incredibly precise for stationary targets, and we know about the porous nature of the Iron Sieve and very expensive THAAD and Patriot missiles. I have not seen any confirmation of the destruction of known Israeli intelligence and military buildings, but I would imagine they are toast by now after ten days of missiles.
The military censorship of Israeli damage is certainly annoying for me, but the Israeli citizens themselves cannot ascertain the pummeling they are taking. I suppose this is deliberate. Normal Israelis and the very wealthy non-military Israelis could, theoretically, place pressure on the fanatical leadership.
The BS meter just went to 11
If the Israelis are yawning it is because they have to run off to their bomb shelters two or three times a nigh and cannot get a good night’s sleep courtesy of Iranian bombing. The news may be strangled by the Israeli authorities but the public can see all the destroyed buildings around their country, particularly Tel Aviv.
Trollsplain this to me harder. Harder! I’m almost there…
But, on the off chance you’re a real person and not a paid troll who doesn’t care about reality, do you have anything of substance to add to this conversation? Do you have a link or any evidence to share to support any claim you make above? Are you able to offer any evidence refuting the material provided in links in this post? If not, do you think there is any reason for people to consider anything you’re saying as accurate or correct?
Today’s Drop Site piece, Trump Might Want to End the War. Iran Won’t Do It on His Terms. True to form at Drop Site, well worth a read. One small snippet,
The continued firing of missiles nearly two weeks into the fighting will soon push against logistical limits for the forces deployed, Elmer told Drop Site. “There’s only so many missile interceptors on the [U.S.] destroyers. Once they expend those missiles, they have to go back down to Diego Garcia and reload the missiles…
You would think the us navy would be rotating the deployment of the ships bearing these missiles, based on the duration of rearmament. There’s a couple ways to interpret that, like “shock and awe, it’s a wrap”. They would have to be drinking the kool-aid to have bought in here.
Anyway, great quote at the finish, so read to the end.
Interesting report (from the American right) about possibility of nukes:
Will US/Israel Consider Nukes On Iran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gREeZ66QH4I
Let’s all hope this doesn’t happen (because like everything else that is happening West isn’t thinking this thru, but Iran must have), but as commenter above points out, Israel is getting hit hard.
Iran begins laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz
posted 17 minutes ago
‘This cannot be sustainable’: The U.S. borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, the CBO says
https://fortune.com/2026/03/10/treasury-debt-borrowing-five-months-deficit-warning/
Nate Hagens had a special “Frankly” up today. Part of it covered Tindale’s list of long affected supply chains. Another part I hadn’t heard before. Hagens was editor at the Oildrum, so he knows the industry. He said that the Iraqis had only 3 days of storage left, but it was going to be a real problem to shut most wells down. most Iraqi wells are in water flood, and when you shut down a well in water flood, it’s severely damaged. He explains the process in detail. He speculates that they will keep the wells going but dump the oil in the desert or the Gulf.
Spot cut is here.
exclusive:
USS Charlotte: How Australian submariners avoided taking part in Iranian warship sinking
The Nightly can reveal that ADF personnel on the USS Charlotte were ordered to their sleeping quarters as the submarine’s crew took aim at an Iranian warship.
https://thenightly.com.au/politics/how-australian-submariners-avoided-taking-part-in-iranian-warship-sinking–c-21892748
And yet Australia is sending a Wedgetail aerial reconnaissance aircraft as well as a supply of air-to-air missiles to the UEA because I guess that the PM wants to please Trump which is a fool’s errand-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/10/australia-to-send-aircraft-and-air-to-air-missiles-to-gulf-to-protect-and-defend-civilians-pm-says
What could have caused a shortage of aerial reconnaissance aircraft in the theater? I am reminded of yesterday’s report that AWACS aircraft had left Prince Sultan air base for bases in Europe.
Bloomberg says tankers are headed from outside gulf to Red Sea to load from Saudi pipeline, saying up to 7 mb/d… wonder what Houthis think?
Also that emirates about to use pipeline that bypasses strait, wonder what Iran thinks.
Blowing up pipes are ok in rules based order.
Are they saying 7 mb/d over what they had previously been supplying, or 7 mb/d total capacity? If, for instance, they had already pumping out 5.5 mb/d, that’s only a net gain of 1.5.
Richard Blumenthal, US Senator not know for pacifism, on leaving a senate briefing said he’s angry, they’re taking us on a path to putting boots on the ground. I assume by “they” he means the Trump administration.
For those who missed it, Trump now says “unconditional surrender” means when he determines that Iran has been sufficiently degraded. His spokeswoman said with a laugh that it obviously didn’t mean Iranian leaders saying they surrendered. No claims yet (that I know of) that Trump can command the tides but it is still early days.
By that definition, it sounds like the party surrendering will be the USG. We’ll give up when we decide to.
Richard Blumenthal is known for creating the impression he “served in Vietnam” when he was a stateside Marine reservist who was never in Vietnam.
https://www.npr.org/2010/05/18/126913756/blumenthal-says-he-misspoke-about-vietnam-service
As he kept himself out of harm’s way during the Vietnam War, maybe he will try to do the same for modern day US soldiers.
One can hope.
Trump says US has destroyed mine-laying vessels after warning Iran over Strait of Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-energy-secretary-deletes-post-about-navy-escorting-vessel-through-strait-2026-03-10/
Mine layers are out of date, Now there are smart mines, pop up mines, torpedo mines, rocket assisted torpedo mines with hard wired carrier signatures etc, technology has been keeping up. The mines are already sitting on the bottom waiting for signals.
Related: Make this first sentence make sense, given the rest of the post
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116206683370194686
“If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! Additionally, we are using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers to permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait. They will be dealt with quickly and violently. BEWARE! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
The man sounds increasingly desperate.
Well, he started a war because Iran was not developing nuclear weapons and it could not be allowed to have them. So…
A regime that can’t make the Do Not Call Registry effective…
Boeing signs $289 million Israel contract for 5,000 smart bombs, source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/boeing-signs-289-million-israel-contract-5000-smart-bombs-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-03-10/
To be delivered when?
“Test of New Boeing Smart Bomb Ended Unexpectedly When Tiny Doors Blew Out, Sources Say.”
And MCAS made the bomb “auger in” well short of the target …
From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance News.
Oil Armada Heads to Red Sea as Saudis Divert From Hormuz
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-tanker-armada-heads-red-155845016.html
US urges Israel to stop attacks on Iran energy sites, Axios reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-urges-israel-stop-attacks-iran-energy-sites-axios-reports-2026-03-10/
Naftali Bennett watch:
‘We won big’: Lapid, Bennett celebrate shelving of Haredi draft exemption law | Times of Israel
RJ, I’m interested to hear your next report of Zoom calls w/Israelis colleagues.
Signs point to things being bad there, of iron dome failing, of warning systems failing, and a city largely shut down?
Yes, the situation has deteriorated significantly since Monday, when a few went into the office (located in a downtown TLV high rise). Yesterday several took calls from the shelters or dropped calls midway through calls to return to the shelter.
A note about the shelters themselves: everyone is required by law to have one or access to a public one, but there are different types. In homes they can be a reinforced room but in older apartment the reinforced area might be a corridor or basement.
I was told on a call that a customer, a major bank, their HQ office was destroyed. This was before the notice today from Iran that going forward banks would be struck.
Australia is deploying a sophisticated surveilance aircraft to the UAE. It has defensive as well as offensive capabilties.
https://theconversation.com/australia-is-sending-an-aircraft-and-personnel-to-the-middle-east-does-this-mean-we-are-entering-the-war-277958
The plane provides sophisticated, long-range mobile radar facilities as is able to coordinate both defensive and offensive missile targetting. Will help plug the gap caused by loss of radar units across the middle east.
Re. nukes:
“A final speculation: I am less worried about Israel resorting to tactical nukes than I was earlier.”: Dios te oiga, Yves, Dios te oiga…
Two things about the use of nukes:
1-Is Israel wagging the dog, or is it an American agent, with whatever leeway it gets, but essentially a subordinated agent?
2-As pointed by, I think, Mercouris: does the US have a kill-switch for the Israeli nukes?
Re. question 1, I am of the view that the US is in charge of things. Israel knows the limits imposed to its actions by its position vis-a-vis the US and (mostly) doesn’t trespass. That, by the way, would make the Gaza genocide the American genocide of the Palestinians. But I admit that there is room for debate.
If we could have an answer to the second question, we would have a fairly firm answer to the first one, in my opinion. Has there been any discussion that you know of about the kill-switch possibility?
US would only have a kill switch for Israeli nukes if US built the bombs for them. There is zero evidence that this is the case. Israelis built the bombs themselves (and why wouldn’t they? Pakistan and N.Korea were able to do it and Israel is at least as advanced as these two)
No, we have a post coming on this. The Israeli nuclear program did not have US support. France and South Africa were among the big backers.
Crosstalk: Bullhorns – Unconditional Surrender!
Mark Sleboda with Peter Lavelle & George Szamuely 08/03/26
recommended even if considerable doomsaying
TC 10:00 Mark Sleboda suggests US will try to destroy all Iranian AD until it´s safe for US Air Force to enter Iranian airspace to then drop dumb JDAMs which Trump says they have an unlimited number of so as to level the place.
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/crosstalk-bullhorns-unconditional
-Sleboda believes the Mina school bombing was bad intelligence. Because it would make no sense to waste missiles on such a target.
Is he too gullible? (this being Sleboda?!)
-Sleboda paints a possible 500k US draft in a year from now, aided by EU to enforce the plans against Iran stated by Trump with the clear intention to provoke RU and CHI into WWIII waters.
I somehow doubt that. With MAGA as they admit in this show themselves destroyed no member of the US Administration has the necessary popular base for that.
Not to speak of the lack of military capabilities which would make such operations fall short much too early to get to the desired WWIII stage. imho.
They wanted to discuss nukes but ran out of time
Discussing a draft puts someone in the not to be believed zone.
Col Wilkerson talked about a possible draft and he said 90+% won’t do it, even ROTC will bail, they are in it for the free education. He was speaking after having talked to lots of college students all over the east coast.
A draft will be met with a massive resistance, not seen in this country since the Vietnam war. Maybe it would be good to have that kind of uprising
500K troops is a pipe dream. The US just doesn’t have the logistics to pull off something like that, even *if* they did have the troops to spare. And where would they even invade Iran from? The only possible staging areas that make any sense would have to be from Iraq or Kuwait, and there is less than zero chance any army buildup wouldn’t be droned to death round the clock, 7 days a week. That’s assuming also that Iraq wouldn’t collapse if they even tried a troop buildup there, and also assuming ships carrying supplies would be able to pass the Straits and the Persian gulf unmolested. This is also, clearly, not going to happen.
Even the idea of attritting Iranian AD sufficiently is (potentially) borderline impossible. NATO, after 78 days of bombing Serbia/Yugoslavia in 1999, never managed to entirely eliminate the Serbian air defences, because Serbian command adopted a strategy to preserve their defense systems by keeping their radars off as much as possible. And even that vintage Yugoslav 60s gear was able to down an F117 stealth fighter and damage a second one. Iranian air defenses are more modern and far more numerous, in a country that is gigantic and heavily mountainous. US/Israeli aircraft also have to operate at max ranges given that their closer Gulf bases have basically been abandoned due to the Iranian missile threat, so that puts an additional strain on logistics and requiring non-stop tankering for all those fighter aircraft, plus piling on the flight hours on your airframes; every flight hour means many more hours of maintenance. Keeping an operation up like this, even for 80 days like NATO did in 1999, is quite a logistical challenge.
Glenn Diesen with Prof. Mearsheimer.
John Mearsheimer: U.S. Already Lost Iran War – No Off-Ramp in Sight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e9NhLfPNKU
RACKET NEWS
Who’s That Source? Iran Edition
How much thinking really happens at a DC think tank?
by Jillian Butler
Mar 11, 2026
https://www.racket.news/p/whos-that-source-iran-edition?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1042&post_id=189918038&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1i81oo&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=deref-gmx.net&utm_medium=email
“Analysts from Washington think tanks and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have appeared dozens of times in the New York Times, Washington Post, CBS, and Bloomberg as subject matter experts on the Iran War — and counting. While they are usually presented as neutral policy experts, their funding structures and advocacy histories are rarely disclosed.”
Some of these institutions are then listed and assessed.
Explanation from Lloyd’s about war risk and P&I issues. Article states coverage premiums haved increase 4 to 5x, and some details that were covered as part of a package are now purchased separately. Hello inflation! Goodbye global economy..
BBC Persian [so anti-regime] reporter in Tel Aviv says missiles hitting Tel Aviv without warnings on phone or sirens. Also, says Israeli officials said both Hezbollah and Iranian missiles “slipping through” Israeli defences
https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2031518686893543801
https://nitter.net/DD_Geopolitics/status/2031518686893543801
Video with subtitles
Netanyahu rivalling Trump for deluded social media posting
Netanyahu to Iranian people: Coming days will bring opportunity to free yourselves, be ready (TOI)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tells the Iranian people that Israel will soon “create the conditions” for them to “grasp your destiny.”
“People of Iran,” he writes in English on the Prime Minister of Israel X account. “We are waging a historic war for liberty. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for you to remove the Ayatollah regime and gain your freedom.”
“Together with the United States, we are hitting the Tyrants of Teheran harder than ever,” writes Netanyahu, promising that “we will continue to hit with growing force the tyrants who terrorized you for decades.”
Netanyahu says that “in the coming days we will create the conditions for you to grasp your destiny.”
“When the time is right, and that time is fast approaching, we will pass the torch to you,” he writes.
“Be ready to seize the moment!”
—–
ToI actually omitting the most deluded bits:
We are focused on regime targets and are doing our best not to harm the People of Iran.
We are your ally. Your best ally.
We fully respect your sovereignty, culture and heritage.
You asked for help and help has arrived
Full thread https://nitter.net/IsraeliPM/status/2031452023753765011#m
————
If most opposition to the regime is among middle class Tehranis, does bombing the crap out of them seem like it’s the work of “your best ally.”
Hard to know if he actually still believes all this, or is just posting for domestic/international PR purposes.
Genocide supporter Bret Stephens demonstrates a lack of geographical literacy
Why would they need to massacre their own citizens? Israel is doing just fine bombing oil infrastructure to create a kind of chemical weapons attack.
Stephens is one of those intellectuals that would strongly support the Holocaust while denying any such genocide were taking place. Truly a piece of work, this one. A soulless ghoul.
How Does This End? Four Scenarios for What Comes Next With Iran. (NY Times oped)
How the Iran War Ends (WSJ opinion // some Hudson Institute guy // archived)
The likeliest scenario is that the U.S. largely clears the Gulf but the regime survives
….The lesson so far is that Iran’s threat to America is both greater than many Iran doves understood and more difficult to address than many Iran hawks hoped….
….If Iran pressures the U.S. to end the war before it can break the blockade and cripple Tehran’s ability to impose new blockades down the road, the mullahs will hold an acknowledged veto power over the ability of their Gulf neighbors to trade with the world. The Iranian regime could then threaten a global economic crisis at will and would build up the weapons and war chests that will make its position unassailable…. [BP: who could have foreseen such a thing? /sarc]
….The war looks set to end in one of three ways. One would be a clear and damaging American defeat. If a mix of global pressure and domestic opposition forces the Trump administration to end the conflict before full trade is restored through the Gulf, a battered Iran will emerge having demonstrated its ability to close the Gulf against everything the world’s greatest military power can throw at it. America’s power and prestige, not to mention Mr. Trump’s, would struggle to recover from such a fiasco.
Alternatively, the Americans could reopen the Gulf as a new Iranian government more focused on developing the country than on dominating its neighbors emerges. This would be a major victory for the Trump administration.
Most likely is an in-between scenario in which the U.S. largely clears the Gulf but the current regime survives. Operation Epic Fury would in that case be remembered as the Mother of All Lawnmowers, solving nothing fundamental but preserving a fragile balance of power in a vital part of the world.
BP: still seems too optimistic. How does “the U.S. largely clears the Gulf” happen?
At least they are starting to ask the right questions.
A lot of the analysis in the article was covered better long ago by Yves and others
Also, what about the Israel part of the equation?
For a start the US could remove all it’s bases from the Gulf as being too vulnerable to attack. The Gulf countries would be glad to see the back of them and this would make Iran more secure. Probably removing sanctions against Iran too. They have to get some sort of advantage out of this war as Trump is certainly going to listen to Netanyahu and Lindsey Graham and launch another war by next year to have another go at them.
I doubt the US would ever remove them. They may be effectively removed by not being or not being fully rebuilt.
Every time I hear or see U.S. referred to as “the world’s greatest military power” I think the author is full of s**t or lying. It becomes hard to pay attention to their argument.
The US has the world’s largest navy and air force, the world’s largest special forces and marine intervention forces, the world’s largest nuclear force and one of the world’s largest armies. It has an immense military-industrial complex, and it has the world’s largest spy service which also includes a paramilitary force. It also has, I suspect, the world’s largest mercenary force.
I don’t think it’s unfair to call this “the world’s greatest military power”. It’s important, of course, to distinguish between that terminology and “a military power capable of defeating any enemy”.
Trump risks his very own Suez crisis (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Telegraph)
Subhead: The US president is manifestly unprepared for the economic fallout from his attack on Iran
If Iran is mining the Strait and stands ready to use its shoreline batteries, faith in TACO Iran will crumble.
Maybe hair trigger Hegseth persuades Trump to try to seize the Strait with our troops?
A few videos and news items from ParsToday Russian Telegram:
Dubai airport completely packed. Massive outflows
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/196743
DPRK says “respect” for the new Ayatollah
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/196740
Cars in Tel Aviv buried under ash from missile strikes
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/196733
Office White House
ClimbdownDenial of Military Escort in Strait of Hormuzhttps://t.me/parstodayrussian/196730