Today’s Iran war update will be more telegraphic than usual. I do not normally prepare original posts on Saturday and had the competing duty of assembling Links. I will endeavor to have a completed version by 8:00 AM EST. Please make additions and any corrections in comments and if you arrive early, refresh your browser and re-skim at 8:00 AM.
At the risk of again seeming perversely optimistic, if financial time operates as it normally does, faster than political or real world (here kinetic war) time, there is a prospect that market upheaval will throw an impossibly big spanner in Trump’s prosecution of the Iran war. Even though Brent crude rose and remained over $90 a barrel (and I am told that Fox News, Trump’s favorite information source, yammered about that and the decline in stocks on Friday), his team still seems to be in considerable denial about the rising economic costs and real risk of investor revolt. A poor jobs report, with a decline of 92,000 and a small uptick in unemployment, showed that there is already underlying weakness in the US.
Bloomberg provides a good one-stop overview of not just information to investors but also concerns. A late-in-day Friday snapshot of the landing page:
Admittedly, the finance community may not yet be willing to accept that the continuing Trump utterances are admissions of impotence. There are report of Gulf state, particularly the Saudis, attempting to engage the Iranians. Mind you, this comes after the Financial Times reported that at least some prominent players were deeply upset about the high cost the US was casually inflicting on them:
Khalaf al-Habtoor, a prominent Emirati businessman, reflected Gulf frustrations about being dragged into a war triggered by the US and Israel in a social media post addressed to Trump.
“A direct question: Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with #Iran? And on what basis did you make this dangerous decision?” he said on X. “Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger?”
He pointed out that the Gulf states were expected to be major funders of Trump’s plan to rebuild Gaza and backers of his wider “Board of Peace”.
He said Arab Gulf countries had “contributed billions of dollars on the basis of supporting stability and development”, adding: “These countries have the right to ask today: where did this money go? Are we funding peace initiatives or funding a war that exposes us to danger?”
More on divisions in the Gulf due to the US leaving them high and dry and prioritizing defense of Israel:
At the same time (I believe it was Alastair Crooke in an fresh interview with Chris Hedges) suggested that the leadership of some nations in the reason may be playing a double game, still supporting the US campaign because they find an Iran win, at least in the sense of confirm that the US cannot insure security in the region, as severely damaging to them. The UAE and its fellow travelers have profited greatly from positioning themselves as sunny, luxury-filled enclaves for the global wealthy. Tourism and travel are sure to plunge if that brand proposition is revealed to be empty.
Nevertheless, Iran made a concession of sorts to the bleating of its neighbors. From Arab News in Iran president apologizes to neighboring countries for attacks:
President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for Iran’s attacks on regional countries, insisting that Tehran would halt them and suggesting they were caused by miscommunication in the ranks.
Pezeshkian made the statement in a prerecorded address aired by state television after repeated attacks Saturday morning on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
“I apologize … to the neighboring countries that were attacked by Iran,” said Pezeshkian in a speech broadcast by state TV.
Pezeshkian said its temporary leadership council had approved the suspension of attacks against neighboring countries unless an attack on Iran came from those countries.
However:
Iran's president said the council has decided to stop all bombing of nearby countries IF no attacks depart from these countries.
Be aware of the IF.
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) March 7, 2026
If you think the US will stop using bases in the region to attack Iran, I have a bridge to sell you.
But Trump will take any opener to flog the idea that the US is triumphing. Lead story at the Financial Times now:
But Pezeshkian’s remarks are consistent with one of our beliefs: Iran will stop shooting once the US and Israel stop shooting at them. But it seems logical for Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until it has broken US resolve.
Iran is relenting with the Strait of Hormuz closure…..with some exceptions. From Bloomberg in HORMUZ TRACKER: Iran-Linked Ships Transit as Others Stay Away:
• Strait of Hormuz transit remains near a standstill for a sixth day, with Iran-linked tankers the only large vessels making the crossing in the past 24 hours.
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively flatlined following several attacks on merchant ships, with missile and drone activity posing a critical risk to all vessels.
• The inability to move oil tankers into and out of the Gulf means storage tanks are filling and some refineries have cut capacity, with countries such as Iraq and Kuwait scaling back production.
So far, aside from the hare-brained idea of a war risk insurance backstop (not feasible on any relevant time frame save perhaps for US carriers, who are small fry in maritime insurance), the latest bright idea has been for Treasury Secretary to provide a 30 day sanctions waiver. Per Anadolu Agency:
The US may consider lifting sanctions on additional Russian oil shipments to ease a temporary global supply gap, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Friday.
The remarks follow a US decision to issue a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil in an effort to maintain global supply….
Bessent said the Treasury Department is examining whether additional sanctioned Russian crude shipments could be released to the market.
“We may unsanction other Russian oil,” he said. “There are hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned crude on the water … by unsanctioning them, Treasury can create supply.”
With respect to India, the Bessent claim looks to be closing the barn door after the horse is in the next county. India was close to top of the list of countries that would be harmed by loss of supply from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. India was almost certain to buy Russian oil to fill the gap whether the US kept its pig-headed sanctions on or not.
As for other countries, Putin stated before the Bessent hand-waive that he might immediately assist Europe’s suicide pact not to buy Russian energy.
Russia could halt gas supplies to Europe ‘right now,’ amid a spike in energy prices triggered by the Iran crisis, President Putin warned, linking the possible decision to the European Union wanting to ban purchases of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas https://t.co/lRKY1A6XYg pic.twitter.com/PLkqFHPdhv
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 5, 2026
Now to kinetic war updates:
Tel Aviv, last night.
IRGC channel.
@SepahPasdaran pic.twitter.com/VcB0VRMcoD— tim anderson (@timand2037) March 7, 2026
Note that more and more indications that Iran is inflicting a lot of damage on Israel come as doubt are rising about the degree of punishment Iran is taking. Even though it seems unquestionable that civilian lives and infrastructure have been damaged, a CNN report showed that life for most Iranians seems to be continuing as normally as it can during a war, and in particularly food supplies and other basics of the economy are operating properly. Military expert are also raising red flags about US claims to have wiped out Iranian missile launchers. Chas Freeman in a talk with Daniel Davis cited a Douglas Macgregor account that in the 1997 Serbia air campaign, Serbia has 17 launchers but NATO forces reported 64 kills. Scott Ritter gave a similar account from the Iraq war, of how pilots quickly reported having destroyed a significant integral multiple of the Iraq missile launchers that existed as having been destroyed.
US missile: pic.twitter.com/Mo0p9co3bp
— . (@distantdeadstar) March 4, 2026
There were many fine talks on Friday but this one was a standout due to Wilkerson presenting both relevant operating detail, such as the process of screening and preparing active-duty soldiers for combat, as well as information he is receiving from contacts:
Some key items in this discussion:
The US has not provided photos confirming damage in Iran as one would expect by now
The US is firing into Iran nearly entirely at a distance, which makes even JDAMs less accurate, sot they miss targets most of the time
Stamrer knows the strike on Cyprus was a false flag
Larry Johnson has an important article on how The Trump Administration is Lying About American Casualties in the Persian Gulf Region:
Despite the Trump administration’s efforts to downplay US casualties after seven days of war in the Persian Gulf, clues are appearing on the internet that indicate the US has suffered more combat losses than reported. The first clue is this Xhitter (pronounced SHITTER) from Stars and Stripes.
K-Town refers to Kaiserslautern, a US Army base in Germany, which is located 13 miles east of the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. So what? Well, on March 4, 2026 the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center (LRMC) in Germany—the largest US Department of Defense hospital outside the United States and the primary overseas trauma/evacuation hub for injured service members from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa—sent out a memo announcing the temporary suspension of its labor and delivery services “until further notice.” The memo did not explicitly define the “primary objective,” but LRMC’s core role is treating combat- and training-related injuries. It also is the main medical evacuation point for wounded troops from ongoing operations.
A knowledgeable friend who supervised DOD’s Wounded Warrior Program during the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars and worked with personnel at the LRMC, learned today that there is a flood of casualties arriving at the hospital. The numbers are so large that the hospital could no longer continue to spend resources on birthing babies.
Then this picture popped up on Telegram a little bit ago:
Consider also:
MORE POSSIBLE EVIDENCE THAT THE US GOVERNMENT IS HIDING THE CASUALTIES OF US TROOPS IN THE WAR WITH IRAN:
The hospital in Landstuhl Germany has closed down its entire labor and delivery ward to potentially accommodate US Troops.
Please watch the video below, and drop any source… https://t.co/256CALmTOK
— Godfroy (@g0dfr0y) March 6, 2026
Keep in mind that Johnson is discussing casualties, some of which may turn into fatalities. But recent Army Ranger Greg Stoker has pointed out that the armed services have a process for informing family members of deaths in combat. They do not include those losses in official counts until those notifications have been made. Stoker believes that this procedure makes it hard for the military to lie much about deaths. But injuries are in a completely different category.
Johnson in this article and both Larrys in the talk on Dialogue Works also took up the topic that the Trump Administration looks to be scrambling to send forces to the theater. We pointed out yesterday that Max Blumenthal had argued that the purported Kurdish campaign the US was trying to mount was likely a means for introducing special forces.
More rumors:
The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is to be deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean, off the coast of Israel, as the US prepares for the deployment of troops into Iran.
Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/taFrxwSbOp
— AF Post (@AFpost) March 7, 2026
Phone has been ringing off the hook. A LOT more units have just been activated for deployment than the public knows about… https://t.co/qax3F23lwM
— Mike Prysner (@MikePrysner) March 6, 2026
Former ambassador Chas Freeman and Daniel Davis also had an informative talk, more of the big picture sort. Freeman stressed that he expects Iran to get a nuclear weapon and also described their strategy as rope-a-dope, to keep taking Western punishment as they exhaust themselves, and then land a knockout blow.
Hopefully this is a big enough information dose for today. Back tomorrow.
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Good morning and thank you.
When I read this, Pezeshkian said its temporary leadership council had approved the suspension of attacks against neighboring countries unless an attack on Iran came from those countries, I’m thinking “mission accomplished” on destroying regional radars.
Good morning.
That’s a good point. I’ll add that it sets up Taco for a different kind of “mission accomplished” moment. More like a “fold-erama” over the weekend, because markets.
The lifting of sanctions on Russian oil to India has a bit of a “you can’t fire me, I quit!” feel to it.
The “suspension of attacks” does not include US bases in Gulf countries, and Pezeshkian’s unclear apologies (most probably meant for Azerbaijan) were corrected from the military.
This from the Guardian’s live stream:
I read it the same way. I had a comment on it at the end of yesterday’s thread but it was lost in moderation.
A longer version of his comments seem very much like an indirect acknowledgement & apology to Azerbaijan.
Translation “oops, our bad, let’s not escalate plz”
Via Tasnim
Pezeshkian further conveyed his apologies to neighboring countries that have been attacked by Iran. He explained that Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei as well as many military commanders and ordinary people have been martyred due to the brutal aggression of enemies, noting that when commanders are absent, the brave Armed Forces act decisively to defend the homeland with honor.
Pezeshkian clarified that Iran has no intention of invading neighboring countries, reiterating that they are considered brothers.
He called for collaboration with the neighboring nations to establish peace and tranquility in the region.
Pointing to a decision made during a recent meeting of the temporary leadership council, Pezeshkian reported that the Armed Forces of Iran have been instructed not to attack the neighboring countries or launch missiles unless the enemies intend to attack Iran from those countries.
He also emphasized the importance of resolving issues through diplomacy rather than conflict with neighboring states.
Middle East Spectator (Iranian or pro Iranian Telegram)
Two days ago, Iran struck Azerbaijan (according to Aliyev). Aliyev then says Iran must apologize or face retaliation.
The IRGC at the time already denied the strike, saying it was not carried out by them.
Today, after detecting signs of an imminent Azerbaijani attack, President Pezeshkian issued this statement of ‘apology’ to reassure Azerbaijan that Iran will not strike neighbourly countries (like itself) unless facing attacks from them.
The Armed Forces Spokesman quickly confirmed and repeated this, and also added that this refers to countries ‘we have not attacked AND will not attack’ (again reiterating that Iran did not strike Azerbaijan). This is clearly not about the Gulf, because we took responsibility for those strikes.
Pezeshkian’s wording was confusing and should have been better. But it was regarding Azerbaijan, NOT the Persian Gulf states.
Thank you, this is clarifying.
Direct confirmation that attacks on Gulf States will continue:
Google translate of a tweet from Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei (Head of the Judiciary of the Islamic Republic of Iran & 1 of the 3 dudes on the Leadership Council)
The geography of some countries in the region is openly and secretly in the hands of the enemy, and those points are being used against our country in aggression. Severe attacks on these targets will continue. This strategy is currently being implemented, and the government and other elements of the system are unanimous
Mainstream broadcast Media here in Canada reported this development late yesterday evening along with another very interesting item. Out of the blue it was reported that Russia was providing targeting information to Iran, in response to the destruction of Iran’s targeting capability. It was reported that the US was unconcerned about this Russian participation, Trump himself shrugging it off as irrelevant since the destruction of Iran’s military capabilities was now complete.
Really?
No follow-up coverage this morning. I expected this to be the story here today — did I dream this?
Are these two reports related? I think that it is entirely possible — Oops, we have mistakenly targeted some of our neighbours, but going forward this won’t happen, unless of course we are attacked from a neighbours territory = we have better targeting systems now, and perhaps you should all take advantage of this opportunity for a reset?
It was also reported yesterday that Putin had just contacted all Persian Gulf oil producing monarchies by telephone.
The only thing that doesn’t ring true to me in all this is the USA’s indifference (and Karoline Leavet’s unhesitant — prepared — brush off of the question posed by a reporter regarding what would be a huge escalation by Russia.
I think whoever at AJ wrote the headline got something lost in the translation. As Yves points above, my interpretation of the statement is “if” as in the Gulf states have to kick out the US first.
Not as Al Jazeera drafts it as Iran is offering a unilateral cessation, as long as the Gulf (US) doesn’t attack.
still plenty of targets in Qatar and Bahrain. for a moment I forgot about Al-Jazeera’s Qatar funding until I came across a very pro-Qatar narrative op-ed piece on the website, lmao
True this. I’ll note that these two themes are not mutually exclusive.
Another thought, as your comment jumpstarted the hamster wheel in my noggin, thank you. Is this the point where Iran truly begins to pummel ISR? I expect US naval casualties will accompany this part of Iran’s strategy.
My first thought as well. If US thinks they’ve created chaos within the Iranian leadership, then why not make use of that chaos as it is simply more of the smoke and fog of war?
Iranians invented the game of chess and play it well.
The Arab states are delusional, they cannot have missed the destruction of Syria and Iraq by the USA and Europe and how their countries were used to launch the attacks, nor how the west has attacked Iran since it gained independence in 1920, let alone since 1978 when the Shah ran away with the cash.
Arab sates are deeply involved in all western wars, Iran has little option but to shut down their ports to reduce the direction of the attacks on their country and the supply of weapons.
The west has painted itself into a corner, now quoting the chances of regime change in Iran and also refusing to publish any details of attacks on Israel and the US (casualties for both are reported in the hundreds)
Iran seems to be letting the Arab states off lightly but I doubt that this has been without some negotiations, expect the US to find life harder in the region and the Straits of Hormuz remain closed
Prof Marandi, in conversation with Jackson Hinkle, more or less argues that the Gulfies must go if Iran is to allow peace (or pledge loyalty to Iran). But will the US allow them to stand on the fence? That would require the US to care and it doesn’t.
I saw an interview with Marandi where he stated “his view” (but shared with many in Iran) is that the Gulf States will not be able to produce or refine oil or use the Straights of Hormuz unless they pay reparations to Iran for their collaboration with the “genocidal Zionist regime.” If this becomes the demand officially, then its not just “pledging loyalty to Iran,” it means becoming Iranian tributaries. Practically, I would assume Iran would want either bases (maybe too easy to target) or some kind of intelligence/military integration with the Gulf States to prevent backsliding–maybe something along the lines of Hezbollah embedded but “respecting the full sovereignty” of these countries, with intel sharing with Iran. But I don’t see any other out for the Gulf regimes to survive if Israel/US can’t win this thing quickly, and that will be hard because they went in with no strategy and completely underestimated Iran’s capacity or its resolve. The next US Carrier should probably be named the U.S.S. George Armstrong Custer.
Worse than underestimated Iran’s capacity – they failed to understand the type of war it would be – evidenced by thinking assembling an armada 1000 miles offshore would induce surrender.
At this point, it should be clear that the purpose of an American military base in your region is so that the US and Israel have the option to turn your cities into Gaza if you don’t behave. How much longer can this continue before the Gulfies wake up to this reality?
‘Iran’s president said the council has decided to stop all bombing of nearby countries IF no attacks depart from these countries.’
Iran being very cunning here by trying to drive a wedge between the Gulf States and the US. Iran knows damn well that the Gulf States backed this war under the assumption (Trump promises?) that the war would be over in a fortnight. So Iran has waited until those countries are coming up short on interceptor missiles and are now making this offer. But here is the thing. It would be up to each Gulf State to tell the US that there be no more attacks launched from their territory. Trump will be outraged as will all those generals. And since this region is being covered by Russian and Chinese radars & satellites, any consequent attack would quickly be identified and that information relayed to the Iranians. And if say Qatar let an attack be launched from their territory, then Iran would be free to not only attack that US base but also Qatari economic infrastructure such as refineries. And you can bet that all the other Gulf States would be watching to see who is first out the gate – and right into the knackery. Can you imagine the fights between the Gulf States and the Trump regime? But the former is in deep doo-ddo and they are already starting to pull their economic investments in the US to plug the new bleeding holes in their budgets.
The GCC are supposed to have each talked to Putin to help in conversations with Tehran. Maybe Iran has been advised to take this line to further the realignment of the GCC?
In other words the Iranians like the Russians are playing chess and the Trumpies are playing tic tac toe. Here’s suggesting that one result of the modern USA cultural ubiquity is that the rest of the world knows everything about us while we know very little about them.
And another result is that so many in Europe and it seems the Mideast are trying to be like us–their elites–even as our rulers want to bring back that earlier European imperialism. All the inbreeding is producing strange beasts.
We do still have the ultimate power with all those nukes but here’s suggesting that any country, be it Israel or USA, that becomes the first since WW2 to use nuclear in war will then be nuked themselves in the short run or the long run.
while we know very little about them. Word. Of all the reasons for this debacle, it’s this and it’s structural underpinnings that stand out in my mind as why we are here.
the chronology of the disputatious western/euro expansion left little time for board games of reflection…..the inbreeding uninterrupted….follow the seeds
It’s widely known the GCC countries invest their oil dollars in the US. Per Binance, a Mar 6 post from Sofia Hashmi. “Shocking reports suggest that major Gulf nations — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates — are considering a massive economic response against the United States.”
“Sources claim that leaders inside the Gulf Cooperation Council are reviewing whether to withdraw nearly $6 trillion in direct investments from the U.S. and possibly freeze around $250 billion in defense deals with Washington. This dramatic move is reportedly being discussed after accusations that the U.S. failed to properly protect Gulf countries from missile threats coming from Iran during the ongoing regional crisis.”
https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/298535170298626
Heh heh, file under Economic Chaos.
There is too much mass and momentum. I’m pretty nervous where this is all headed.
The lack of strategic planning by team z is breathtaking.
Scott Ritter said in an interview with Daniel Davis that the Iraqis told him after the bombings that „you Americans are really great at bombing everything but you destroy nothing“. US had bombed, in between the children and weddings, that is, empty buildings. The Iraqis had moved all important to other locations.
Scott believes this is the case with Iran now.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y_jALjcNodU
On top of this theme, the fact that USrael seems to be hyper-focused on hitting Tehran suggests they’re flailing even more.
It’s a grim aspect of the war, but I would guess Iran planned this fight knowing air forces were their opponent’s greatest advantage & Iranian territory would have to soak up bombings, at least in the first phase. Short of God giving the USAF & IAF a collective stroke so they just keep bombing the Dasht-e Kavir, I expect the Iranian gov wants Tehran to be the sponge.
I haven’t seen clear reports on how fully it’s been evacuated, but the government has wanted to move administrative functions & most of the population out of Tehran for decades. For long-term planning, I think they’ve already written off most of the city due to earthquakes alone.
On top of that, while its inhabitants have obviously made a home of it with its own culture, I think a lot of Iranians (especially religious ones) have always had mixed feelings about the city. It’s in a beautiful region with a more temperate climate, but otherwise, it’s a poorly-planned, arguably poorly-sited, sprawling legacy of the decadent Qajars & Pahlavis. If not for 18th & 19th royal politics, it probably would have stayed a sleepy village next door to the much more historical Ray.
So in a weird (but very Iranian) way, that mindless demolition of the capital might be Iran’s preferred scenario for the USrael air campaign.
The thing about defence is that it is impossible to defend everything. A decision has to be made about what must be defended and what can be sacrificed. It would look like the Iranians have decided Tehran can be sacrificed.
The big issue Israel has with it’s air defence is not that they are bad. But teh made the mistake, for political reasons, of pretending that could protect everything. They can’t no one could. But that means when they decide what to sacrifice the population response will be ‘but you said yoy could protect us”.
>Khalaf al-Habtoor, a prominent Emirati businessman, reflected Gulf frustrations about being dragged into a war triggered by the US and Israel in a social media post addressed to Trump.
“A direct question: Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with #Iran? And on what basis did you make this dangerous decision?” he said on X. “Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger?”
I’ll speculate here, umm, could it have been the Gulf States themselves when you decided to host American bases?
In what reality did you think you wouldn’t be a target? Of course the US said “Don’t worry, we’ll defend you!”
It’s all fun and games until the missiles start flying.
But what do I know.
I believe the following video is Lavrov speaking from Moscow a couple days ago. Can’t vouch for the channel as it’s one the algo just shoved at me, but it appears legit at least. The quisling Gulf States are asking Russia to help with Iran and asking for the UN to step in against them, without bothering to condemn the murder of almost 200 little girls or even mention the US/Zionist aggression that precipitated Iranian attacks in the first place.
Lavrov very diplomatically dresses them down.
Just listened to that this morning.
Lavrov also points out the fact that the Gulf countries had also promised their bases wouldn’t be used for attacks on Iran, whereas they clearly had not kept that promise. He was quite stern about that.
Note that Day 1, Iran said US bases in neighboring countries were US territory, not that of the locals. I think the president’s comment probably referred to attacks on oil infrastructure like Qatar’s pipeline terminal in the Red Sea. I also suspect Iran has been working from a systematic plan and the claim of miscommunication was diplomatic. Translation: Sorry we hit you, but we’ll do it again you lying weasels if you let the enemy use your airspace after promising neutrality. See also Putin quoting the Quran in Turkey to suggest Muslims are strong when they unite, and Lavrov’s frosty comment that trying to ride two camels doesn’t work, pick one.
Gaza and Lebanon. I may well be wrong but I think cessation of hostilities requires a resolution acceptable to them. Some flavor of regime change.
Also, apparently, the US embassies in the area, the Kuwaiti us embassy was hit and closed 5 Mar., Israel opened that floodgate, which features prominently in US intel networks.
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The list of killed officers in the tweet you posted, according to Reader-Added Context (haven’t checked myself as I avoid Twitter), is debunked fake news, replicated from the 12-day war.
I’m just saying in case the RAC appeared after you embedded the tweet you didn’t see it. It might be considered poor optics given how well-curated NC’s posts are.
I did say it was not confirmed (particularly in light of the news clips from TRT News and Hindustan Times) but plausible. That account likes to make very excited tweets but looks to have been accurate on airport closures. Weirdly the tweet still appears here but I cannot find it on his account to check the “reader added content” (note we have occasional visits from hasbarists) so I had wanted to verify. However, the tweet is not on his page so it looks like he deleted it and I will do so.
I was watching a Scott Ritter interview earlier and he said that the Iranians had managed to nail a major meeting of the IDF causing all sorts of casualties so perhaps there is an element of truth in that tweet.
There was a strike on a large building, possibly a “bomb shelter”, in the West Bank settlements on the first day of the latest round of attacks. Not sure if it was the same interview you saw, but Ritter mentioned that this was an impromptu meeting of Zionist military/intelligence people which Iran had found out about on the fly and bombed.
The attack itself seems to have been real. The fact that we haven’t seen the Zionists screaming about civilians being attacked makes me think Ritter may be correct in that assessment.
It seems unlikely that Iran would have acquired that information from HumInt – it’s one of the advantages of a fanatical religious cult – suggesting it was SigInt – likely from Russia or China. This has to scare the bejeezus out of the Israeli’s. Stanislav suggested yesterday that a US ship was hit in port, thanks to intel provided by Russia or China.
Even scarier, he suggested that Iran’s declaration that it would hit Europe if they joined the fray, would be enabled by Russia (for targets further than Italy – Iran is not thought to have the reach) – certainly it would be fairplay. Apologies, I cannot recall who was interviewing.
See my earlier comment (currently in moderation) about Canadian mainstream media reports of Russia providing targeting information to Iran, and the US’s apparently indifferent acknowledgement of same.
There was a strike on a large building, possibly a “bomb shelter”, in the West Bank settlements on the first day of the latest round of attacks.
Possibly you are thinking of the Beit Shemesh strike in which a ballistic missile hit a shelter and a synagogue? It wasn’t in the West Bank proper but very close. It has been the strike with the most fatalities so far and the Israeli and Zionist-sympathetic western media have definitely been bleating about the human casualties. Here’s a sampling:
– 9 Killed in Israeli City Near Jerusalem After Iranian Missile Strike | New York Times
– ‘I can’t digest it’: deadliest attack on Israel since war began kills nine and destroys synagogue | Guardian
– Beit Shemesh family clings to God after 3 kids killed by Iran: ‘Faith isn’t built in a day’ | Times of Israel
One thing I found eyebrow raising about the Beit Shemesh strike is it was originally reported as just a bomb shelter but a few days later it had turned into a synagogue strike as well.
I vaguely remember what was claimed as a strike on an empty building in East Jerusalem early on, though I can’t find anything about it now.
Reason = region right after the alastair chris hedges link.
PS. Thanks for all you do!
The aficionados keep improvising. I don’t know who in a video I saw yesterday (Possibly Larry Johnson with Glenn Diesen) brought analogies with “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice” but it’s is starting to look apt.
One other interesting tidbit from one of Friday’s talks. Mark Warner, one of the 8 congress critters that gets confidential briefings on leaving a briefing by Rubio: I can’t share anything that was said but I can tell you what wasn’t said: any imminent threat from Iran.
After the assassination of Iran’s leader, there is no reason why Russia should not do the same to Ukraine.
Why would they want to remove such incompetent leadership from their enemies?
Their overriding goal seems to be to ensure that Ukraine cannot possibly pose a threat to Russia for at least another generation or two. They’re well on their way to succeeding.
Was it Napoleon himself or Talleyrand who said, “Never interrupt your enemy when they’re doing something stupid?”
‘But recent Army Ranger Greg Stoker has pointed out that the armed services have a process for informing family members of deaths in combat. They do not include those losses in official counts until those notifications have been made. Stoker believes that this procedure makes it hard for the military to lie much about deaths.’
That is true for regular soldiers but not so for special forces like Delta Force. But I would not put it past Trump and Hegseth to have those KIAs reclassified as special forces or such so that they would not have to be reported. Such a despicable move would match their mindset.
Yes, or for CIA officers. I believe CIA stations were among the targets in the attacks around the Gulf.
I noticed immediately that as our mainstream press announced the first six US deaths (the only ones acknowledged so far), they made a point of identifying four of them while keeping the identities of the other two secret. The identified four were given stirring personal profiles last night for the usual propaganda reasons. But the other two were not mentioned at all. I assumed this was because the latter were intelligence or special forces of some kind. Perhaps they’ll get their star at Langley.
I wonder to what extent normal processes and protocols might not be getting followed faithfully now, because this administration believes it’s above the law anyway. So how would some procedural missteps or protracted delays compare to outright violations of the Constitution and laws? I’m sure that wouldn’t sit well with military personnel, but with Hegseth breathing down their necks they might have to just salute and go along with it.
Another reason for concern in the Persian Gulf. Per the NYTimes Mar 7-“Big Tech’s Uncertain Future in the Persian Gulf.”
Besides the 61 data centers in Saudi Arabia and 57 in the UAE being easy targets, the report claims “Undersea cables are sitting ducks” “Among the highest risk factors could be the fiber-optic cables that snake under the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea — the region’s two choke points, not only for oil shipments but for data, too. Among the world’s most concentrated digital corridors, they are crucial to keeping parts of Europe and Asia connected to the internet, and experts fear they could be sabotaged, or entangled or dislodged amid chaotic fighting.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/business/dealbook/iran-gulf-tech-investments.html
I suspect that one of the main reasons for closing the labor / delivery wards in the German military hospital is the delicateness of the information: The military doesn’t want information about the extent of injuries and the numbers of soldiers leaking out, which wouldn’t be that hard, given that pregnant women are civilians. As would be most of their visitors.
I can imagine, given how poorly hospitals in the U S of A are run, that no one has thought through what to do with high-risk pregnancies. Dump the women on the Germans? Who knows?
‘Dump the women on the Germans?’
That is exactly what is happening. That military hospital is telling those pregnant women to have their babies through the German civilian hospital system.
Which probably lowers their mortality risk.
jsn
Touché
Tragic humor, but very true, The US average maternal mortality rate is over 22 per 100k, while Germany is 3.5. That’s a huge diff
https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2024/jun/insights-us-maternal-mortality-crisis-international-comparison
We’re #1 (in the erstwhile advanced world)
my cousin’s cousin is a reservist in a very niche MOS. I presume that he would get mobilized (at least deployed to Europe to be on stand-by) if there is a contingency to literally occupy Iranian “WMD” sites.
if he texts me that he’s going, that is another level of SHTF.
Iran is hitting commercial datacentres now:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/07/it-means-missile-defence-on-data-centres-drone-strikes-raises-doubts-over-gulf-as-ai-superpower
Thanks. From the Guardian, and this is the only “solution” offered up, lol,
“If that’s the case then from now on we might perhaps see operators of prominent datacentres like AWS [Amazon Web Services] investing in air defence, similar to how shipping operators armed up against pirates,” he said.
That seems like a fairy tale, prohibitively expensive, long wait list, and not particularly effective.
I’m sure bezos is gassing up the “yacht” and larding in some weapons and of course giant piles of cash as ballast and will soon be heading over there to show them how a real macho man (cue village people) with force of will demeans degrades and demolishes all opposition to his natural superiority. Musk is probably also suiting up to take this battle into space to emphasize to all and sundry that he has the ring that rules them all, and peter thiel is all like “No! it’s me with the ring, isn’t my operation and it’s octopus of arms named after lotr characters…you can only imagine how much these guys hate each other as they all think they rule the world and the stupids are so stupid they don’t know how stupid they are.
Please Iran, for me, blow up as many of these useless eaters assets as you can, you know, for the sake of humanity. Something we can comprehensively say none of these three possess in their collective eternal cores.
I’m waiting for the headline “Bezos buys suez canal and the strait of hormuz and demands fealty! ”
Also
A poor jobs report, with a decline of 92,000 and a small uptick in unemployment, showed that there is already underlying weakness in the US.
Trump did try to pump the market by saying he jawboned the defense ceo’s to use some of their own gigantic piles of money (which of course trump will give them from some kinda weird treasury operation) to create magical wunderwaffles that will literally frighten the bojeezus out of the polity so that they will be more polite to the obvious superiority of these fine ubermenschen and lay down their weapons in order to use their arms for the devils handiwork.
I wonder if the techbros are having 2nd thoughts about sidling up the the US military right about now?
Well, that’s a damn shame.
Big tech gets in bed with the MIC and wakes up the next day with an STI.
That is a seriously bizarre article from the Grauniad. Must have been written by an LLM. Supposedly filed Saturday @ 2200 AEDT, many hours before the attack on Sunday at 0430 and mentioned how people woke up tomorrow and weren’t able to order pizza or a taxi (all in past tense).
WTF?
Good Morning all, This website is an oasis midst all the chaos. Yves and the great contributors are doing yeoman’s work keeping us informed. Plus the commentariat is in fine form. I have sent a check to Yves to show my support for all the effort.
I second tennesseewaltzer’s comment. Thank you Yves and everyone at Naked Capitalism for the excellent coverage of this historic event.
Thank you Yves. Thank you all NC contributors. Thank you all commenters
Thank you Yves
More donations forthcoming
The Pezeshkian message makes me think Iran will be going harder after Israel. Iran has made their point about the fragility of the Gulf states’ oil and gas infrastructure. The next pressure point is the dwindling number of interceptor munitions. The US trying to pull missiles or batteries from the Gulf states to Israel seems like something that would create further problems.
Indeed his message may be interpreted as “We know we have depleted pretty much all your defenses. We let you off the hook for now as long as you can manage to get the US not to use your bases. You’re warned that if anything gets off from your territory, you’re now defenseless and will be punished harshly.”
but that means literally expelling the Americans, as the US//no administation can’t be trusted. Gulf states don’t have the spine for that, yet. maybe in 4 weeks.
I think US bases are still fair game, I think Iran’s saying they won’t go after Gulf states’ moneymakers at this time. The point is to create a situation where the US tries moving munitions or batteries from protecting Gulf state assets to protecting Israel.
About the discrepancy between what Greg Stoker said about notifying family and others have said the US always hides casualties… Yes, the difference between a fatality and injury is central.
Another factor may be that the Pentagon may be able to follow procedure and hide facts from the general public, i.e. they make the procedure more private.
My recollection of W’s Gulf war was that DOD was following procedure, notifying families and doing the honor rituals, but after the first photo of a cargo plane full of coffins was in the paper they immediately made these procedures as far as possible invisible to the media and general public, keeping them between the DOD and the believed. I recall a story about a machine being used instead of the right person signing the letter to the family (was that Rummy or W?) and another about robotic bugles because the army was short of competent buglers. So they were doing the things but also got the media to help minimize visibility.
Since then, as Stoker suggested, procedures may have changed. Or maybe DOD got better at delaying. And I think the news media is even more biddable than during W.
All good points in a rational world, but remember that trump, according to pentagon officials, has been anointed by pentagon jesus to bring about armageddon and an american evangelical new world order. If that’s the case, then the old military orders no longer prevail except as historical curiosities. The pentagon has been transformed in the biblical blink of an eye. It may now operate as the handmaiden of the anointed one, no more stupid rules to impede the most lethal military on earth. Now, how far gone is the pentagon? Way, way gone.
Back then Bush imposed a ban on taking photographs of US flag draped coffins returning home and lots of those coffins were flown in at night-time when there weren’t many people about.
My father flew those coffins between Kuwait and Shannon. He’s a staunch Reaganite and it turned him against Bush and the war.
That standalone comment that the Cyprus drone attack on the Brit base was a false flag and that Starmer is aware, any links or where did that come from?
It is blockquoted under the video of a discussion by Larry Wilkerson and Larry Johnson, as in from that talk. You can generate a YouTube transcript if you don’t have time to listen.
It’s been explicitly stated by Starmer and mentioned in passing in the UK media, as of Thursday. though not highlighted by them.
“You can generate a YouTube transcript if you don’t have time to listen.” Thank you for that suggestion, Yves, you just unlocked a whole new way for me to parse through information and save it.
It is important to keep in mind that Trump has surrounded himself with people who can suck a grapefruit through a garden hose without bruising its skin.
When reality breaks through that bubble Trump is likely to react with irrational rage, and that rage may well be focused domestically because that would likely seem to be “safer” to Trump.
Blaming “Traitors” like MTG and Carlson for the catastrophe would be consistent with Trump’s behavior over the last year, it is not possible that he could have any responsibility for this clusterfuck because “Divine Providence” chose him to “Make America Great Again”.
Trying to follow the thinking of a grandiose narcissist with dementia can take you to strange places…
The Iranians think divine intervention is using Trump as the instrument to make Iran great again. Very inscrutable, the divine.
The Russians are also a lot more religious than the pretend believer Trump. Larry Johnson had a piece about Trump’s grifting spiritual guru.
https://sonar21.com/paula-white-trumps-zionist-pastor-and-israels-evangelical-power-broker/
There’s a solid book that has biographies of Paula White and other key figures on the religious right, ‘The Violent Take It by Force: The Christian Movement That Is Threatening Our Democracy’, Matthew Taylor.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1rnbdjz/combat_units_are_being_given_deployment_orders/
Former 76th Ranger Unit member says active duty combat units are being given deployment orders. It’s Reddit, so take it or leave it.
And lo, when their anti-christ came they fell down on their knees and worshipped him. They brought their children and offered them up for sacrifice. And their children were killed and eaten and they cheered.
“A scheme is not a vision”
https://genius.com/Leonard-cohen-story-of-isaac-annotated
In Leonard’s own words in one introduction to a performance of this song: “This is a song called The Story of Issac, and it’s about those who would sacrifice one generation on behalf of another.”
There are some longer-term issues related to the hosting of US bases which have been touched on a bit, but which are worth more reflection.
Classically, small and vulnerable countries would welcome a US presence because it would give them a political ally in a regional dispute, or a great power that their neighbours didn’t want to upset, as well as deterring potential aggressors. So Bahrein, for example, expected general US political support and indulgence for its domestic policies, and more importantly saw the US naval base as a protection, insofar as an enemy (let’s say Iran) that attacked them would have to reckon with the US as well.
This depended on three things (1) the US presence being a deterrent (2) the US being able to protect them against any foreseeable threats arising, and (3) if necessary the US being able to defeat a direct attack. At least in the case of Iran and the Gulf States we see that none of these assumptions apply any longer. Indeed, the presence of US forces now makes countries targets: the Gulf States are learning what the Europeans are beginning to realise, which is that the democratisation of highly accurate long-range missiles that are difficult to intercept, has changed the game completely. For the moment, the consequences are only beginning to work themselves out.
” At least in the case of Iran and the Gulf States we see that none of these assumptions apply any longer. Indeed, the presence of US forces now makes countries targets”
I wish Finland would understand this, instead of actually being foolish and suicidal enough to want to host US nukes – which, as any sane European from the early 1980s knew, will make you a target for a first strike. I’m puzzled that Stubb seems to be ok with such a foolish idea; he seems one of the sanest European leaders of the moment, among those who are forcefully opposed to Russia.
If anybody from Finland could pipe up and tell us how you lost your minds, that would be great. Finland seems to be a part of the insane Baltikum. Maybe Helsini instead of Poznan should be the example Karaganov is asking for.
Finns are depriving themselves of any chance of survival in the event of a conflict with Russia.
https://m-vz-ru.translate.goog/world/2026/3/6/1400165.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The Baltic states’ borders are turning into a “death zone”
https://m-vz-ru.translate.goog/world/2026/3/6/1399496.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
I like the word “democratisation”.
Perhaps they should have established a “Missiles for Peace” program to keep the lid on😉
They are learning that the bases are not there to protect them, so the quid pro quo for dollar recirculation was not the deal they thought. See also reactions to THAAD systems being pulled from Asia and sent to Israel with none coming to the gulf.
Seems pretty clear (if not said explicitly somewhere) that the monarchies understood Iran’s power and warned against US attacks. Note the angry gulf billionaire’s letter to Trump.
Anyone who didn’t see this coming after Operation Prosperity Garden was asleep.
Perhaps allowing the bases there does protect them, they could be all replaced by a presidentially approved democracy on a whim.
It’s not like they are popular enough for their subjects to rise up to defend them.
All their dough is in the US anyway.
Presumably they would look to make other arrangements.
They are vulnerable to popular revolt. But it was Saudi Arabia that helped Bahrain suppress violent protesters.
They have already said they are looking at pulling back investments in the US. Moves like that won’t happen overnight.
One consequence of this is the possibility of a regional security agreement among the Arab states and Iran, brokered by Russia, cutting out the United States completely with no more US bases in the region. This would have been unthinkable just a week ago, but the US bases are being so severely damaged as to be unusable and as pointed out above have now been proven to be ineffective in any event. In addition, US leadership has been shown to be utterly incompetent as well as unreliable. The US will bitterly resist this outcome, but somehow it now seems inevitable.
I imagine the Japanese and South Korean governments are considering precisely these issues. Especially since the US bsses on their territories are about to be de stocked of the defensive missiles supposed to defend their territories.
Great comment, Aurelien. There is a lot of thought provoking content in Yves’s post and this comment thread. I am late to the party, and I hope somebody can provide some answers to my late questions.
Considering Hudson’s great essay today, now would be an opportune time for the rest of the world to collectively unshackle itself from American vassalage. As we have already noted, one way the US establishes a vassal is building a military base in some foreign country. Are there proper and peaceful ways for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for example, to eject the Americans and its air base? If the process is violent, what could the UAE do to increase its odds of a favorable outcome? Although the US is not agreement capable and often disregards written agreements anyhow, can the military base host country specify how the US violated an agreement and eject them? Is there even a court that considers these cases or can the US just ignore court orders like the ICJ’s case for Israeli genocide?
I could be wrong, but Bahrain’s people and government seem to be tacitly content that Iran crippled the US navy’s base in their country. How much trouble will Bahrain get into if it uses its own military to force out the Americans? Surely, an entire country can subdue one foreign military base within itself especially when some of American personnel have been evacuated because of Iranian missiles? Shouldn’t they secretly ask Iran to launch more missiles precisely at the base and re-purpose the base for its own purposes? As Yves has noted in an earlier post on this Iran war, the host country could conceivably cut the power, water, sewage, internet, and any inbound traffic to the American military base. The US has no diplomacy and resorts to violence for an insubordinate country, but what if every ME nation coordinated together and forced the Americans out? Yves pointed out that the ME nations are having second thoughts about these military base agreements because Israel comes first. The ultra-rich Saudis, the UAE and the financial people in Dubai, in particular, enjoy the current arrangement partly because of the money. So, perhaps a rebellion in Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be very difficult because of the entrenched money classes, but what about the other Middle Eastern countries? For that matter, why exactly is South Korea paying tribute to the US? The Americans, according to Larry Johnson, moved its radars and pricey missile defense systems that can barely intercept any missiles to the current conflagration in the Middle East.
Bahrain, essentially, does not have a military; it (the local Sunni smir) relies of House of Saud and America to do all the heavy lifting.
the classic colonial playbook of the big foreign power aligning with a local minority (Sunni emir v. Shia).
Ironicly, at the macro-level, the divide-conquer playbook would have the US pairing with global Shia—but for some reason, Iranian Shia don’t want to sell out their own beliefs, imagine that! someone with agency, lmao
Correct. The “revolution in military affairs” has been poorly grasped by too many, and too late.
Now, the reckoning …
https://nitter.poast.org/ArmchairW/status/2030110808726790397#m
For all you armchair tacticians…here’s an interesting point from the Armchair warlord. TLDR summary by analogy. “They’re not using the jab to set up a big right cross. They’re getting the right cross to set up more precise jabs to hit right on the chin, over and over.”
ArmchairW is a national treasure.
Iran is claiming the US “committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island. Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted.”
I can imagine now they will do the same, and the Middle East will be in a water wars. Not good.
https://xcancel.com/araghchi/status/2030285674528616916#m
Oof, that’s not going to be good for anyone.
The end of his post should have everyone in Israel worried: “Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.”
is very pointed language, to put it mildly
I wonder where the MAGAs got the idea for that from?
https://theecologist.org/2015/may/14/war-crime-nato-deliberately-destroyed-libyas-water-infrastructure
On the first or second day of this war there was a video linked here by Yves that showed water running through the streets of a town that was said to be a hit on a desalination plant in Israel. Was said that it was the biggest one in Israel.
It hasn’t been mentioned since which is either because of Israeli censorship or because it didn’t happen. Does anyone remember that.
The Iran statement above seems to suggest that they didn’t do that. In that case what was the video of?
If I have time later I will go back and try to find the link I am remembering.
Alan Sutton at 4:40 pm
I remember that video too…
Not sure what to make of it either.
Just went through all last weeks Iran War threads by Yves and cannot find it.
Am I going mad? I definitely remember seeing it.
Maybe somewhere else. Dear me.
It was the Sorek Desalination plant but the footage was from storm flooding in December.
Thank you Alrhundi for that explanation.
So, no desalination plant attacks by Iran yet then.
That’s a relief. As much as I think it would be effective, it would also probably trigger a crazy response from Israel.
Would be an extremely serious escalation.
US has struck a water desalination plant in Iran. This coincides with Trump’s threat that “areas and groups of people” who have not been struck will now be struck.
The targeting of a desalination plant is a huge escalation for obvious reasons. I believe that Israel relies on four such plants to provide roughly 80% of its water. (I don’t have source for this but I do remember reading it somewhere and I’m pretty sure my memory is roughly accurate. Please correct me if needed.)
I think Iran will have to strike one of Israel’s desalination plants to try to establish deterrence from repeated attacks upon their own, but doing so could also lead to further escalation on both sides.
In my opinion this is a major event.
40% of total water but 90% of potable water seem to be the figures. The other 60% is agriculture and industry (but not data centers).
FWIW, I think one lesson we can conclude that Iran learned and improved from the June war (12-day war) far more than the US-Israeli side.
Absolutely. And they seem to have been taking the lessons from Ukraine as well, which I’m not sure the US/Israel side has.
The learned nothing, forgot nothing quote comes to mind.
Why is it that we are repeatedly condemned to learn things the hard way?
I’ve been wondering for a while why we have such bad leadership in the West. Is it because of financialization, just short term thinking and damn-the-consequences with “You’ll Be Gone I’ll Be Gone”? Is it hubris, people have gotten lost in the sauce of the propaganda and think they’re better than everyone so they don’t need to try? Sclerotic bureaucracy?
I have a hard time wrapping my head around how we went from being able to put people on the moon in a couple years to not being able to ramp industrial production after years of a clear need just for the basics to keep an empire going. They don’t even seriously discuss it as far as I can see, just act as if it can happen overnight with no effort. And there doesn’t seem to be any area that isn’t affected.
I hope someone more knowledgeable about history in the commentariat can point me to something that can (help) explain it.
Good questions. As I see it, the short form answer is that the US became deeply corrupt and non-functional oligarchy because it is now ruled by a duoparty that is basically about grift. Their prime directive is to keep the oligarch donor money flowing. Congress critters and Senators are wined and dined by an army of K-street lobbyists. These lobbyists and the corporations they represent are the true constituents of the current order. Voters are understood to be chumps. Bag holders.
This system selects for über-grifters, not competent public-minded politicians. If any competitors representing the vox populi appear (e.g., Bernie, Jill Stein, et alia), they are neutralized by the party leadership. Third parties get kneecapped by DNC lawyers, who will allow nothing to interrupt the gravy train of grift.
From that, all the other eff ups follow, and here we are.
Because Lanarck was wrong. The very neoteny that makes humans flexible makes us reinvent the wheel. Which we may need to do literally in a few weeks (sad face).
Interesting take by Armchair Warlord, basically saying that Iran might have pivoted to focusing more on drones than missiles (at least so far). Thinking aloud that maybe they’re using missile launches to lure the different radars into revealing themselves, and taking them out with drones. That it’s a lesson learned from Ukraine – high profile weapons draw attention, while things like drones can slip in unnoticed and are actually very effective.
https://xcancel.com/ArmchairW/status/2030110808726790397#m
quantity has a quality of its own. dunno if that is a literal (or apocryphl) Stalin/Mao quote, but that doesn’t make it wrong. lmao
in hindsight, it looks certain that the Soviets/Warsaw Pact wuold’ve pushed NATO to the Rhine, and DC would’ve started dropping nukes
The only debate in my 1980 or so scuttlebutt on nukes shot in a Warsaw pact attack was in 48 or 72 hours.
US forces in Europe were guarantee US would go nuke!
Dunno. IIRC the (maybe whispered) belief at the time was that the Soviets would win a conventional war with NATO, but that no U.S. president would risk using nukes when it would put the U.S. itself in danger. The American troops, NATO, and western Europe would all be written off. Luckily for us we never had to find out.
As a Russian colleague said, ‘We’ve been prepared for this for years.’
As much as that infers militarily/intel-sharing, as with China, it also means in messaging. “International Diplomacy for the Forcibly Dumbed-Down”, vol. 2,779. i.e. You’re dealing with Trump, a two-dimensional dolt, and his cadre many of whom have existed far longer than he has. they’re in far over their heads, looking for an acceptable off-ramp; grant it to them, under certain non-immediately disclosed terms. make it pretty for the Empire, on the surface, because no other ego in the world needs such coddling.
screw that!! say the Hegseths, who are also nothing more than coiffed bouffants, and the Rubios who long ago strapped on the mental SS gear.
doing the best we can out here; your daily synopses are finely culled from available info and appreciated.
hoping MAGA is wrecked, Trump gone on real war crimes and other crimes this time, and then…man, what will we do about the corporate Dems? how will the world get to genuine multipolarity, or fairness for its own domestic captive populace? one thing at a time.
I find it difficult to believe that the Pentagon would allow any sort of ground invasion force in this theater because this war is nothing like the invasion of Iraq. For a start, any US troops arriving by air or by sea in this region would be immediately hit by drones and/or missiles. Same goes for their equipment as well as it lands and maybe the ship itself offloading this equipment is sunk. Then the US would need a mountain of supplies to enable and sustain themselves but again, missiles would take them out, especially fuel bunkers. But a miracle occurs and a force to put together. Looking at a map, any invasion force would have to come in from Iraq (‘Real men want to go to Iran’) and they would be hammered every step of the way. Once in Iran they would soon hit their first mountain range where the Iranian military would be waiting for them. It would be worse than the Italian campaign back in WW2. Trump should be wary if his generals start to rewatch that old film “Seven Days in May.”
How do they stop Trump without taking power? If they refuse to follow orders, then the US transitioned to a military dictatorship (10% by year end). For no one to notice, Trump would need to retire for health reasons in the next week or two, and likely Vance and then most of the cabinet. Maybe Rubio has potential as a figurehead. Mr. Market would panic. Note, the goal of the military junta would be to protect US military strength (their strength) by retreating from its overextension.
Vance has kept his hands relatively clean of Operation Epic F-Up. He could appear be a “safe pair of hands” post-Trump
Trump can be killed, or if it the market tanks hard enough removed.
A Vance presidency would be a Palantir-NewMil presidency that the Pentagon could live with. It would be the end of the neocons era. Vance (if we assume him to be Palantir/Thiel’s chess piece) already has a sizeable deep-state constituency.
If it looks like Trump is about to send thousands of troops into certain death, everyone except the Zionist-bought will fall into line.
I predicted a while back, before the war, that a soft military coup in the form of the armed services refusing to act on Trump’s orders was entirely possible. Recall they did in Trump 1.0,, admittedly at the very end of his term, by refusing to pull out of Afghanistan.
Coups don’t have to be all bad. The one in Thailand left pretty much everything running as usual, plus the general in charge didn’t even grift.
I only partly agree about that Yves, but I’ll keep my thoughts untyped for reasons you’ll understand.
With the US, it depends whether it’s a coup to remove a bad leader with the intention to return to democracy or a coup with the intention of keeping military rule.
The more Trump is obviously incompetent/nuts and the more he alienates his supporters, the more acceptable it will be.
Give it a couple more weeks if this and then outside of Zionists who see him as useful, what constituency does Trump still have that wouldn’t accept Vance?
One problem is how many US officers are believers in the apocalypse? They are beginning to frame this war as the start of that snd if that fundamental christianity is too embedded in the military then they will go along with it.
Yes, and I am a day late as per my usual modus operandi, but let us all recall and take note that Hegseth’s recent speeches/tirades/policies regarding fitness and the need for aggressive warriors and such have effectively functioned as a purge. This likely put ideologically-aligned, or at least compliant leadership in charge of many military unites. The ones likely to resist are quite possibly no longer there, at least among the flag ranks.
Maybe a passive-aggressive soft coup? How would that work? Work to rule? Slow walk everything?
I’d prefer conscientious objectors and mass resignations, but I’d think they’d already left or been pushed out already.
The mountainous terrain is a significant factor in Persia surviving for millennia. When they were strong, they would take over Mesopotamia. (The famous Romans killed invading Persia died there.)
But during phases of weakness (and no one stays strong for 2500 years), they would hold out in what is now Iran and good luck trying to conquer them.
The Mongols did capture Persia.
As did the British and Soviets.
I reread the accounts of the Mongol invasion of Persia and foubd it funny that very few of the major battles took place in actual Persia: the Khwarezmid Empire was actually a Central Asian Turkic empire at its heart and the Mongols defeated it there–Urgench, Samarkand, Bokhara, Merv, Khiva, etc, not in actual Persia. If anything, the Khwarezmid crown prince, Jalal ud Din put together a remnant regime in Persia that lasted for a while–and migh have lasted longer if he were a competent ruler.
Fever dreams!
There Is One Crucial Reason We’re Talking About Boots on the Ground NYT
“Jimmy Carter’s failed military operation, known as Operation Eagle Claw, aimed to rescue 52 American hostages held in Iran but ended in disaster on April 24, 1980, resulting in the deaths of eight U.S. servicemen and no hostages being rescued. The operation faced numerous obstacles, including mechanical failures and poor planning, leading to its cancellation and significant political repercussions for President Jimmy Carter.”
Lots of mountains in Iran, lots of airspace to try to cover without detection, lots of places to “hide” decoys. What could possibly go wrong? IMO any search for nuclear materials would be the ideal trap for Iran to set.
sounds like an episode of Scooby Dooby Doo
That NYT article is the icing on the yellow cake.
GMAFB.
The NYT reverts to form and comes up with a florid description of the nuclear McGuffin in the hidden mountain lair. All that’s needed is an Iranian Blofeld stroking his Persian.
Some comments:
1.) Thank you for your on-going content with respect of Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza situation, and now Operation Epic F-Up.
2.) Interested in perspectives on why the market is holding up so well. It appears that the Gulf monarchies are totally dependent on petro, and no petro is moving through the Hormuz Straits for many months, and their production and refinery capacity may be destroyed and take years to build back. One presumes they needs cash, and quickly, and they will be forced to sell USD holdings, which should create significant tail on markets, which will probably magnify as stop losses trigger and margin calls appear. Is it just that the liquidation hasn’t really started yet, or is there another game.
3.) I found this article interesting, but I have no ability to verify, I don’t know if its accurate or totally made up. However, given the focus of this site, I thought it was worth placing on the radar:
https://kaitjustice.substack.com/p/bessent-kushner-55-billion-ea-deal-epstein
I have heard that the White House has been reassuring everyone that the “real” intel says the war would be handily won in days – no need to react. That seems unlikely to persist into next week. I think Alistair Crooke was the source – the economic war against the US / West is as important as the military war.
The Duran boys interviewed Alex/Reporterfy, former energy trader, who talks about how scarily leveraged the energy markets are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcKLRJEHaNw
Thank you for the link. Those claims seem much more worthy of press attention and congressional hearings than the ongoing Kristi Noem – Pam Bondi soap operas.
One question that I am not clear on that I may have missed: now many US navy surface ships are inside the Persian Gulf proper? Is it possible that US subs are launching missile strikes on Iran?
sorry, How many ships might be in the Gulf right now?
Last I’m aware of there were ~9 ships in the Persian Gulf: https://sonar21.com/updating-shakespeare-to-war-or-not-to-war-that-is-the-question/
A week or two ago Larry Wilkerson talked about subs in the area, I think that the basics was that Iran has subs that are designed for the Gulf, while the US subs are built for the open ocean and wouldn’t be ideal in there.
Thanks for that JM, I follow both of them, but missed that so much information to process. Since the 5th fleet base in Bahrain was attacked on 28 Feb., I just wondered if any US Navy ships were in port and damaged? or if they had made any attempt to exit the Gulf.
I haven’t seen anything about the ships in the Gulf since this all started. I can’t imagine they’re in port, because they’d be sitting ducks. If they’re out and performing evasive actions, I wonder how long they could keep that going.
Either way I don’t think they are or will be a factor other than being a target. But I’m no expert, by any stretch.
Edit: there definitely is too much to really take in, like with so many things nowadays
I may be completely wrong but I recall that on 27th the were one Arleigh Burke and two Independence class ships in the Persian Gulf, but hey all exited during or shortly after the beginning of the hostilities.
Currently all US naval surface units seem to keep their distance from Iranian waters.
And yes, the Persian Gulf and the western end of the Gulf of Oman are very shallow waters, but the seabed drops very fast in the Gulf of Oman to a depth of several kilometers. Iran has indeed developed mini-subs for operations in the Persian Gulf – crew of 7, carrying 2 torpedoes or anti-ship missiles, no endurance to speak of.
I don’t think there are any ships in the Persian Gulf itself, because that is not very wide and the Iranians can have a good view of everything in the Gulf, which at the widest is just over 200 km and in the range of short range missiles as well as directly observable from higher up on the mountains. US ships likely are in the Gulf of Oman or even further away.
The following telegram channel was recommended as mostly reliable. They claim there are at least 3 littoral combat ships and names them. No source or info about other types of ships.
https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/19397
Let’s consider the map first.
The Persian Gulf is the body of water stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to Iraq. I bet there are few US ships stuck in there, sitting ducks for the Iranians.
Beyond the Strait is the Gulf of Oman, a big channel between the Arabian Peninsula and Asia. That opens into the Arabian Sea, an area defined by India, Pakistan, Oman, a little bit of Yemen, the tip of Somalia, and the big blue sea to the south. My guess is the Gulf of Oman is still a little too close to Iran for safety, and the vessels they keep telling us are “in the Persian Gulf” are really in the Arabian Sea.
There is a report that a combat support vessel was hit by the Iranians, and a report that the Lincoln had come in too close and was hit or almost hit, and had to stand off further as a result. Neither report gave a location.
I had to look at a map just now to find out, so I am no geographic expert. But to try to answer the question, I had to do it. As a matter of political method, it is amazing how many times I have been able to debunk fatuous political claims by looking in to very basic facts, like geography — I recommend it to everybody as a first step.
As of March 26, (correction here: February 26) there were 16 US Navy vessels in the area, but that includes the Ford and its group in the Mediterranean. Recent estimates for the Arabian Sea (although they usually say Persian Gulf) are ten vessels. I bet this does not include subs.
The big development is the move of the Ford through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, and the advent of the Bush in the Mediterranean to take over Israeli anti-missile duty. So now there are three carriers in the area. Why would Israel need more aircraft in the region? Didn’t we have the most incredible armada ever when we started? What could have happened to make us need more aircraft ?
Hi, Yves, a copyediting comment: I think the paragraph starting “Iran is relenting with the Strait of Hormuz closure…..with some exceptions.” is meant to read “not relemtimg” or “unrelenting” given the continuing closure.
Thank you for your daily summaries.
Many thanks Yves for your stellar work. Without NC I wouldn’t be able to tell a dead parrot from a live one.
Yesterday I spoke with a good friend about the ME situation. He is an extremely bright guy. Unfortunately he wanders around the house with CNN on in the background. He drives around in his car with the radio tuned to some 24-hour news channel. He didn’t know that Iran had “closed” the Straights of Hormuz. I go, “Really. You didn’t know this? Do you know what the consequences might be?” All I get out of this is that the MSM refuses to say the loud part out loud.
Today I pick up the pink paper. And we have an op-ed by the famed energy political economist Daniel Yergin. The guy has been around since the Punic Wars and has been writing accessibly about oil power politics at least that long. He says, of course no Cappy wants to sail his ship through the Straights in a war, and his craft can’t get insurance and closure could be catastrophic for the world economy. He fails to mention that Iran has “closed” the Straights of Hormuz. There is price to pay for having an editor.
Am I being a pedant? What am I missing here? Iran has closed the Straights of Hormuz…this parrot is dead.
“Am I being a pedant? What am I missing here? Iran has closed the Straights of Hormuz…this parrot is dead.”
The answer to both is the same; “frontal nudity.”
See what our Infotainment system has brought us too?
Thank you. I picked my wife up at the train station today. It’s a fairly long drive. We spent a portion of it discussing this bizarre phenomenon. We are both very alarmed. How to explain this detachment? Me, “I’ve read Covid affects the part of your brain that produces empathy.” H nods, “Everyone seems so beaten down, they don’t dare look.” My turn to nod. And that’s all we came up with. I have yet to speak with one person who has any idea how bad the chips are falling.
SIMPLICIUS post March 6th
Iran Blinds US With Unprecedented Campaign of Strikes on Region’s Strategic Radars
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iran-blinds-us-with-unprecedented
Lavrov to Gulf Cooperative Council ministers: You denounce Iran but make no mention of the treacherous attack during negotiations, and ask for Russia to pressure Iran? We oppose the attacks which we think are also bad politically for Iran. We would support a resolution for peace at the UN that is balanced.
I am making phone calls to my representatives to check on Brian McGinnis, a veteran and Green Party candidate in North Carolina. He bravely stood up and declared no one wants to die to Israel. Merely holding his ground and holding onto a door, the Capitol Police and a disgusting Republican senator broke his arm.
This one got to me. It teed me off badly. His wife can’t reach him and neither his lawyer. No one in his campaign can reach him.
Thom Thillis sent a miserable pro Iran war email to me in response.
Is the man being “disappeared?”
Not being allowed to speak to an attorney is the definition of a Police State.
The worst fears of the Conspiracy Theoreticians of years gone bye are coming true.
US attacking freshwater desalination plant has ‘grave consequences’ – says Iranian FM (BBC)
Destroying the water infrastructure of Iran, which has been suffering drought, is yet another crime against humanity. Iran can play that game as well with the Gulf states, which are heavily dependent on desalination plants. Talk about humanitarian crises.
And against “Israel”, of course. This might have some very strong consequences.
Thanks, how could I forget. Israel also relies heavily on desalination plants. The settlers on the WB steal the local groundwater from Palestinians for their swimming pools while Palestinians are left high and dry.
Good point. I like to point out that any attempt to address/stave off climate collapse will require mandatory global-wide good-faith collaboration.
Never mind.
For sure, but sadly that does not seem possible now. And we can bet that environmental impacts, the toxicity of all this destruction, petroleum, chemicals, possible radiation, massive greenhouse gas emission etc… It’s a pity that many environmental folks don’t connect the dots and point out that military and war are some of the most polluting and destructive activities humans do. Not to be morbid, but thousands of decaying bodies and/or cremations cannot be good for the environment either.
Sort of like Public Health got highly credentialized, and stuff like determinants of health vanished from discussion. If you’re an environmentalist and not calling for basically the abolishment of capitalism, you’ve lost the plot at this point.
A few quick internet searches indicate that Iran depends on desalination for 3% of its water needs versus 70%-80% for Israel. So attacking Iran’s desalination seems like a big gamble given the asymmetry here.
I wonder why Iran didn‘t bomb or sabotaged the Israeli water system immediately when Israel was bragging on TV about Mossad stirring up the revolts and killing hundreds of policemen in January.
I’m actually not too surprised they haven’t gone after desalination plants, and I don’t think they will even as retaliation for their own water plants being hit.
1. IIUC destroying freshwater sources (originally spoiling wells in Arabia) is a pretty direct no-no in Islamic rules of just war
2. In an eventual Israeli defeat & collapse scenario, while fleeing Israelis may even sabotage their own infrastructure out of spite, I think there is still a hope that maybe the Palestinians & the Israelis that choose to stay (do they become something else at that point, like the Canaanists wanted?) won’t have to rebuild everything from scratch like Gaza
3. The Iranians don’t need to respond to the escalation with an exact tit-for-tat. They’re very creative & good at doing things obliquely so the payback will probably be both strategic and poetic
Northern Iran is mountainous terrain. Usually, an invading force needs 3X with air superiority, 5X-9X if the defenders are well dug in – see Ukraine. An outdated doctrine (that assumes ISR) is critical. Iran will drone attrit invading US forces, using Russian doctrine, strategy and tactics, and the US is a decade behind – and Russia will be as happy to see NATO (aka US) destroyed in Iran instead of Ukraine and has a score to settle – 100,000 dead US GIs would even the score – 200,000 dead US GIs would teach a lesson. The US doesn’t have 200,000 without a draft (see tooth to tail below), and its logistical support is heavily attenuated – maintenance needs, specialized trucks to return armor to base, even fuel trucks and the logistical line of an advancing force is its weak link – the US has spent decades on special ops – a few, in and out. That is where the big bucks are for the MICC. Consider the lack of naval oilers!
Wherever they assemble will be in the range of Iranian missiles and drones (with Chinese ISR they will know). Iran has shown it will take the initiative.
They will get smashed in their assembly areas – as happens every day in Ukraine. In Iraq? they would just fight Iraqi’s. Kurdistan is already under attack (not safe for assembly) Afghanistan? Hah. Probably Azerbaijian, a problem that will be addressed sooner or later.
And the armor? Iran is the size of Western Europe. Are they going to walk hundreds of miles, fighting through mountain passes on foot with all their supplies on their back? Sure thing! US armor is not appropriate uparmored for drones (and you can’t uparmor a Bradley against drones as in Ukraine). I bet the carefully thought-out plan involves underwear gnomes.
The US tooth-to-tail is ~9:1, say 20k troops = a few thousand fighters, with non-working and/or intercepted satellite coms – they will not be effective. The force should have been in place 6 months ago. Failing to plan is planning to fail.
The ground war is looking DOA. Who in their right mind will volunteer for the first wave of that? Erdogan, perched on his fence with a left forefinger placed firmly on the left side of his nose, “Not it!”.
And yet the mobilization orders are going out. If King Knut orders a ground invasion, what happens?
Does the military take charge and say no? In that case, will they only take control for this one decision, or will the military take over other aspects of the governmental decision process? Its not as if Trump can keep quiet.
I’m confused, didn’t Rubio say no to ground invasion? I thought the emperor himself said no. But Hegseth said yes? WTF? I
I thought it was the Iranian leadership that was decapitated.
Good one! LOL
Apologies, I got ahead of my skis. At this point it is mobilization concerns…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/06/army-82nd-airborne-iran/
I think both Larry W and Larry J. both chuckled at the idea of land invasions and arming Kurds to invade. It is so difficult to figure out what is going on given the incompetence and contradictory statements from the US regime
Apparently, life proceeds faster than punditry. Scott Ritter on CN is reporting that Azerbaijan, after some obvious false flags that suspiciously did no damage with no strategic impact, is mobilizing and moving forces to open a second front.
Scott argues that the US ground forces that will be injected (with no logistical tail) will be slaughtered along with the Azerbaijani forces, and Azerbaijani oil production will be destroyed. Russia would be pleased as punch if Iran removes their CIA problem on their soft southern underbelly. He also notes that the weapons Europe was going to buy to give to Ukraine are now blowing up in the Middle East – freeing Russian military assets to support Iran to fight NATO in West Asia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_mh__nN_oM
I absolutely agree with Ritter. These conscripted and ordered to charge will be slaughtered. I hope it’s bluster on the part of Azerbaijan. I’m begging, Stop the madness.Please.
Or even if a plan were in place: Where would a ground invasion be launched from? Amphibious? From Iraq? The Kurds?
I don’t seen any reasonable way the US could mount a land invasion wihout taking huge casualties. Iranian FM Arangchi smiled when asked the question. “We are waiting for them”
At this point it seems talk of ground troops is just BS bluster from a bloviating, incompetent “leadership”
WaPo seems to have put forward another person (from the American Enterprise Institute) saying that Kharg Island is a good place to attack – the same one that Daniel Davis thoroughly deconstructed a day or two ago.
https://xcancel.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/2030134339959140704#m
>the American Enterprise Institute
Richard Perle’s dark soul swells…
“The US doesn’t have 200,000 without a draft (see tooth to tail below),”
Exactly. I sometimes hear the lament, “If we still had a draft…” One argument continues that young people would rise up and prevent a new war from starting if there were a draft. Yeah, right. At best, they’d just “kill a few” and get on with their plans. Another argument naively claims that the risk of having a child drafted would deter the rich and powerful from promoting a new war. LOL.
Because we don’t have a draft now, the lunatics are seriously hamstrung in sending ground troops to Iran. There simply aren’t enough soldiers to send in any without risking their slaughter. The ending of the draft in the wake of Vietnam has saved us from a war of this magnitude for 50+ years. That’s especially true in wars where we have little to no support beyond our fellow rabid dog, Israel, and Israeli supremacists are too busy killing civilians and destroying Lebanon, Gaza, Syria and the West Bank to risk their troops in an insane ground invasion of Iran where they would be opposed by an actual army. They’re hoping to let the goyim from Arkansas and Indiana do it for them.
I’m also thankful that young people around the country are not having to contemplate, as my generation did, whether they would choose Canada/Mexico, jail or serving as Trump’s and Bibi’s cannon fodder.
Maybe they won’t send them to Iran. Maybe they’ll send them to their fractured bases in Gulf States. Fits Donnie’s MO. Capture the oil…what the hey, it’s not ours, but it SHOULD be ours since we are the anointed imperial stewards. Not a good look for the enlisted men who will may be sitting on ground zero.
How did all of OUR oil get under their sand? It’s a conspiracy!
There’s a nugget right near the end of the Johnson/Wilkerson w/Nima video in Yves post:
Johnson (“I know this as a fact”)
Paraphrasing: In Venezuela, there were 2 inside guys, Maduro’s security, who betrayed him in order to claim the $50m reward in conjunction with a couple of Americans.
Trump welched on the reward!
He Welshed on the deal? The Welsh might beg to differ (sorry, my attempt at facetious humor)
I am perplexed. Is this a very dry alternative comedy joke about ironically reinforcing national stereotypes or are you under the impression that welch and welsh are not etymologically related? :-)
A former Welsh colleague (native Welsh speaker) must have influenced me. He was particularly sensitive to such things that might be disparaging toward the Welsh, especially from the English of course.
https://www.etymologynerd.com/blog/welshing-on-a-bet
Thank you for the etymology; I didn’t know this. NC commentariat expanding my knowledge me as always!
It’s not a commonly used phrase in the UK (my lexical background) and I used it as it was Johnson’s wording.
When I was a kid, I hustled peanuts at the hockey games. Of course they had other events going on. Well, the Welsh Guard marching band was due one night. So, my mom (who was Irish) says, “Don’t expect to make any money tonight.” I had people actually ask me how many peanuts were in the bag. I made bus fare.
I thought the Scots were the cheapskates…
Trump stiffing people on what he owes them? He has form here…
Seems there is a pandemic of pachycraniitis in the halls of power
Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled messages,
A peck of pickled messages Peter Piper picked;
If Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled messages,
Where’s the peck of pickled messages Peter Piper picked?
Lol! Good point. Palantir is getting its butt kicked at war.
That’s certainly one way of looking at it. It’s all such a mess at every turn.
One noteworthy thing about the current Middle East war is that Iran is almost universally described in the media as “retaliating” in a war that was started by Israel and the US.
In the past, virtually without exception, Israel and the US are described as retaliating for attacks begin by various other parties, despite the fact that the former almost invariably launch these wars. I always find this infuriating, showing as it does the degree to which the media has been captured by Western governments and militaries.
Whatever else is new about this war, some tiny amounts of truth and honesty does seem to be creeping into the information system.
To your point, I was gobsmacked the other night when the CBC!!! used “unprovoked” in describing the US/ISR assault against Iran. It might have just slipped out, they’ve been using unprovoked for so long when referring to the “aggressor”.
Three mini-updates.
1. Russian state-adjacent television this morning is expounding the theory that Pezeshkian was NOT talking at the Arab Gulf States when he said “I apologize to neighboring countries”. Rather, this was aimed squarely at Azerbaijan, which has been making warlike noises since two Iranian drones hit the airfield in the Nahichevan exclave a day or two ago.
This is tangentially confirmed by this morning’s statement from the IRGC:
…The Islamic Republic of Iran up to the present time has not infringed on the national interests and sovereignty of neighboring countries and has respected these.
Countries that have not provided the enemy with airspace and [attack] possibilities up to this moment have not been a target and shall not be in the future.
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195898#
There is a bit of a translation issue, but the Russian TV interpretation is that “neighboring countries” refers to countries with a physical land border – i.e. Azerbaijan (and, to a lesser extent, Iraq, Armenia and Turkey). Basically, the last thing Teheran wants is a land war on with one of these on top of the air/missile war with the US and Israel. Especially with Azerbaijan and Armenia, since Iran’s remaining supply and trade routes for the moment are basically north-to-south either across the Caspian or through Armenia and Azerbaijan.
2. Yesterday Russian Telegram channels (but not Iranian ones) were reporting that China and Iran have signed a formal document allowing Chinese vessels to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. I have yet to see a confirmation of this, only that talks were ongoing. But it is certainly conceivable. And the Russians, presumably, cannot be far behind.
Meanwhile, there are about 300 tankers of all classes trapped inside the Persian Gulf at the moment. Wonder when some ship owners will start re-flagging themselves…
3. This morning’s statement from the IRGC, from the Pars Today news agency:
…Evacuation of bases and expulsion of the terrorist US army from Iran’s surroundings is a required condition for fixing the new order in favor of regional peoples. We again stress that not a single location where Americans and Zionists are present will be out of danger.
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195885#
I personally take it as a hint that the “maximalist” Iranian condition for peace would be a dismantlement of all US bases in the region. Something the US can hardly be expected to accede to…unless things get a lot worse. But on the other hand, what do I know.
The value of the cargo onboard those 300 tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf is growing by the hour. The shipping companies might not be complaining.
Which brings up a parallel observation: this entire debacle is raising the price of oil a great deal. Despite the temporary pause in the delivery of oil, producers may come out of this deal smelling like a rose.
Not sure about this, but some reports that another girls school was bombed, this time in a city near Tehran.
https://xcancel.com/TheCradleMedia/status/2030312725708964293#m
Doug Henwood interview with Behrooz Ghamari on Iran
1st half of podcast
March 5, 2026
https://shout.lbo-talk.org/lbo/RadioArchive/2026/26_03_05.mp3
entire show content:
-Behrooz Ghamari, author of The Long War on Iran, on the politics and culture of the country
-Anatol Lieven on the effects of the war on Iran on the region and world
Ghamari´s book:
https://orbooks.com/catalog/the-long-war-on-iran/
about the book:
The United States and Iran have been locked in a decades-long standoff, driven by missteps, misunderstandings, and conflicting ambitions. This book, from a prominent Iranian authority, delves into the complex dynamics behind this ongoing conflict. It sheds light on why American policies have repeatedly failed to understand the true nature of Iran’s transformations and its role in the Middle East.
Drawing on two decades of political analysis, Ghamari explore the history of US intervention in the region, focusing on the enduring sanctions imposed on Iran and the persistent perception of the Islamic Republic as a major obstacle to American power. Despite the repressive policies of the state, Iran has remained a vibrant society with active intellectual, cultural, and social justice movements. The book examines these internal changes and shifts in Iranian politics.
By challenging the conventional image of Iran as a totalitarian regime, Ghamari urges readers to appreciate the country’s diverse society and complex political landscape. He calls for a re-evaluation of how the US engages with Iran, advocating for a more informed, nuanced approach to Middle East diplomacy. At a critical moment when US policy is being reshaped, The Long War on Iran is a timely reminder that, if the US fails to acknowledge Iran’s transformations, both nations will continue to face new events―and the same old questions.”
about Ghamari:
Behrooz Ghamari is affiliated with the Elahé Omidyar Mir-Djalali Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of Toronto. He was Professor and Chair of the Department of Near Eastern Studies and Director of the Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies at Princeton University from 2020 to 2024. He is the author of three books on different aspects and historical context of the Iranian revolution of 1979 and its aftermath: Islam and Dissent in Post-Revolutionary Iran (2008); Foucault in Iran: Islamic Revolution after the Enlightenment (2016); and Remembering Akbar: Inside the Iranian Revolution, OR Books (2016).
Concerned about the Azeris joining in the war somehow. Feels like it would be insane on their part given how much damage the Gulf countries have taken, but maximalist aims could make it very tempting to start an invasion. Will this really devolve into a general regional war? Then the projected disasters to the global economy from the pieces shared here the last couple of days (Craig Tindale was very sobering) will be best-case scenarios.
Have a look at the Georgian Lasha Kasradze on Neutrality Studies on the topic of Azerbaijan. Stanislav Krapivnik likewise touches on Aliyev and Azerbaijan in his conversation with Glenn Diesen.
I just threw some rum in my coffee after coming across this article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/opinion/trump-iran-nuclear-weapons-enriched-uranium-war.html/
https://archive.ph/zojGW#/
There Are About 20 Canisters Filled With Uranium Somewhere in Iran. We Must Find Them.
The same uranium Omani mediators said Iran was willing to downgrade? Which only got enriched to such purity after Trump pulled out if the JCPOA?
This paragraph made me laugh:
The biggest obstacle to the peacetime approach — beyond the fact that the United States and Israel continue to attack Iran around the clock — is the Iranian regime itself. Mr. Trump launched the war amid negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. That would make talks based on trust hard to restart. And after years of on-again, off-again diplomacy and enormous military attacks, Iran’s leaders might well have concluded that their only true guarantee for staying in power is to acquire a nuclear weapon as soon as possible.
It read like it’s 2003 again.
I’d modify that slightly. “…their only true guarantee for remaining an independent state is to…”
Sounds like a retread of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989).
I haven’t seen this linked, a very serious analysis by Policy Tensor
“Why the US is facing strategic defeat”
Drone/missile production:
“This means that the curve is not bending down but going up! The all-important interdiction campaign to degrade Iranian capabilities has suffered a massive setback. That is why the US is rushing a third aircraft carrier to the region: because the US can barely use nearby air bases, it has to rely on naval aviation to fill in the gap. ”
“Because of the stunning success of Iranian counterforce strikes — they’ve basically made US bases in the region practically unusable — the US cannot generate enough sorties, even if the drone war math was promising, which I have shown you is not. ”
Serious analysis.
https://open.substack.com/pub/policytensor/p/why-the-us-is-facing-strategic-defeat?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Seems a great analysis, until the author asked Grok what it thought about the number of sorties been flown. As if Grok could possibly know. Sigh.
This timeline is stupid.
Also grok should be asked why Iran hasn’t closed the Suez Canal trapping those US Navy ships in the Red Sea?
Was in Links.
Good piece.
Look at today’s links, the section “Israel v. The Resistance”, fifth link there.
Senator Brags About How He Manipulated Trump, 79, Into War [Lindsey Graham]
https://www.thedailybeast.com/senator-lindsey-graham-brags-about-how-he-manipulated-trump-79-into-war-with-iran/
re Lindsey Graham
So at about minute 17 of the video embedded in the link below, Lindy calling on the Orange One to join IDF on the ground in Lebanon. Linds-o speaks fondly of revenge against Hezbolah from the 1983 attack on US soldiers. So, troops not just sent to Iran, but now to Lebanon? Cray cray
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/have-us-and-israel-misjudged-iran
How shall we take our revenge on Graham for 1861, then?
Turkey considering deployment of F-16s to Cyprus, ministry source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkey-considering-deployment-f-16s-cyprus-ministry-source-says-2026-03-07/
US starts using UK bases for ‘defensive’ Iran operations
Britain allows the US to use the Fairford and Diego Garcia bases for ‘defensive operations’ against Iran after Starmer shifts cautious stance.
https://www.newarab.com/news/us-starts-using-uk-bases-defensive-iran-operations
“…after Starmer shifts cautious stance.”
So, photos of Starmer going all “sloppy seconds” with Boris Johnsons pig were produced to “change his mind?”
Enquiring minds want to know.
Greece to deploy Patriots to protect Bulgaria amid Iran war fears
https://neoskosmos.com/en/2026/03/07/news/greece/greece-to-deploy-patriots-to-protect-bulgaria-amid-iran-war-fears/
Re: Yves’ military coup talk. Yes, Pentagon refused to obey Trump and pull out of Afghanistan in 2020. Has he learned from this betrayal?
Thought experiment. Trump is playing 4-D chess. He and his team eg Vance/Rubio want exit from Middle East as per State Dept-authored National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 doc: “As this administration rescinds or eases restrictive energy policies and American energy production ramps up, America’s historic reason for focusing on the Middle East will recede.” Trump figured Pentagon would refuse to withdraw from Middle East. So threw them into a losing war. Destruction or dismantling of US military bases in Gulf eg Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar amounts to managed insolvency of obsolete assets.
Once Trump forecloses on Middle East, he is free to pivot to Western Hemisphere. Again, as per NSS doc: “After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.” This is definitely Rubio’s focus. And looks like Hegseth may be shifting military spending from CENTCOM to INDOPACOM and NORTHCOM: https://breakingdefense.com/2025/02/pentagon-seeks-to-shift-50b-in-planned-funding-to-new-priorities-in-fy26/
Will Trump blame Iran War loss on Pentagon top brass? Even on Israel? Anticipating a military coup against him, is he getting his counter-coup in early?
Like I say, a thought experiment. Trump not smart enough to play 4-D chess. But good luck pursues him like a demon.
I contemplated writing the Trump is playing 5D chess post similar to the above, but with a /sarc/ at the end. Getting forced out of the ME and de-funding Israel as a result of launching an idiotic war which destroys God knows how many billions of dollars in military hardware, plus the loss of life, plus depletion of AD interceptors and most of your offensive missiles, demonstrating your complete unreliability as an ally, and your inability to defend. . . how long before Taiwan is on the menu? What do you think if you are an Australian? What about Thailand or Singapore? Don’t worry about Israel because it won’t exist if this continues.
Short of divine intervention, when this is over, the US will be out of the Middle East and effectively all show and no dough in SE Asia, meanwhile, NATO is on thin ice. Hell, there may be Chinese or Russian bases in the Western Hemisphere before this is over at the rate Trump is moving. I saw two videos essentially demanding Russia start bombing bases in the EU providing logistics to the Ukrainians. What is going to happen if Article V gets invoked in April simultaneous with a Chinese blockade of Taiwan? This is a cosmic level f-__ up!
Yes, 5-D chess. A strategic loss in ME to deliver rerouting of logistics to Western Hemisphere eg Venezuela, Ecuador, Cuba?
That seems to be way too much trouble along the way: we are talking about burning through practically everything for a trivial “gain.” If ghst is what it takes now to advance policy opposed by the Blob, then we are in proverbial (or literal, perhaps) 11th Cirvle of Hell (I reslize thst Dante did not know about circles of Hell beyond the 9th, but here we are…)
So I really can’t figure this. Israel and the United States under Trump have repeatedly violated the norms of diplomacy and attacked Iran, assassinating their leadership;
Iran can’t rationally engage in any negotiation with the United States or Israel ever again.
With any kind of negotiated settlement impossible, I don’t see any good outcomes in the near term. Trump is delusional, and Israel is suicidal.
The Iranians would do well to keep shooting and not stop until neither Israel or the United States can ever, in a 1,000 years, ever contemplate this kind of preemptive war and violation of Iran’s sovereignty.
And there’s scant evidence that America can stop the shooting.
While Trump Taco’d on the tariffs when the Market finally disciplined him, the relevant actor here is Iran, not Trump. Whether and when America stops shooting isn’t really relevant. The question is how far does Iran believe this needs to go until “never again, ever” is abundantly clear. And can that be achieved without precipitating a nuclear strike by Israel?
It all seems surreal, so I must be grossly misreading this. Or Trump and Israel know something about Iran that we don’t, and this is going to come to a favorable conclusion for American power in the region and Israeli supremacy.
The US foreign policy establishment doesn’t see Iran as a nation-state but more like the Gulf monarchies with peasants who won’t care and people that can be replaced. This is why despite the madness of assassinating Khamenei it’s not obvious to the DC class.
Does anyone need an intelligence report to conclude a non-aggressor country won’t simply roll over? The only people who do are the ones who think it’s possible.
The only (horrible) way that it makes sense to me is that Israel precipitated this to clear the way for using nukes on Iran, so they establish that they are ultimately in control of the Middle East. If that’s the case, I don’t know what they’re waiting for.
Here in the US we know our leadership doesn’t care about our lives. I assume that the people moving units around on a big chessboard aren’t prepared to lose vast amounts of Israeli people. But if the precipitators are a transnational elite that don’t mind losing their Tel Aviv residence, maybe the people of that nation are toy soldiers too.
It is entirely possible that Israel and other aligned interests initiated this to force the US out of the ME. We stand to be much weakened after this conflict is resolved. Israel as a nation state stands to gain a lot… if there is anything still left of it.
It’s tragic to see what is happening. I wish these people would wake up and stop this mad dash to Armageddon. Bibi will end his career as prime minister of the nicest graveyard in west Asia if he continues.
Maybe. I’m not buying. It’s not just Israel that there will be nothing left of. Surely, someone in planning voiced this concern? This will, indeed must pan into an epic environmental crisis.
A history of genocide would suggest that its best to be in a total existential war if you want to eliminate an undesirable population and seize their land. Not sure if they will use settlers or actual uniformed troops to drive them out but I believe they will. Also, Tucker Carlson is suggesting in the fog of war that the Dome of the Rock might accidentally get targeted by “Iran” and Israel can proceed with the re-building of the Third Temple.
I think this Iran War represents the final solution to the Palestinian Question for Israel, the Palestinians will be run out or murdered from the Occupied Territories, Israel will occupy South Lebanon and parts of Syria, and perhaps Jordan and Egypt will collapse, allowing the Israeli occupation in these areas. If Iran can be destabilized and ripped asunder in civil war like Syria, and Iran’s proxies can be defeated, there will be only Turkey standing to resist the Israeli’s.
There is a true Schmittian political friends/enemies distinction in the ME. Neither Israel nor Iran can continue to tolerate the existence of the other state. Either Israel survives or Iran survives at this point, and if Israel manages to survive, then they will be the hegemon in the ME. Bibi is gambling the future existence of his country, but he and many Israeli’s believe that Iran is steadily growing more powerful and will never tolerate the continued existence of Israel, meaning they have no choice but to risk it now.
Hezbollah issued an evacuation order in Northern Israel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-UR3GNewhg
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30060
Israel has started attacking Iranian oil storages
Video. V big fires.
I guess with this and the desalination plant attack we are seeing what Trump meant in the last part of his deranged Truth Social message earlier:
@realDonaldTrump
Iran, which is being beat to HELL, has apologized and surrendered to its Middle East neighbors, and promised that it will not shoot at them anymore. This promise was only made because of the relentless U.S. and Israeli attack. They were looking to take over and rule the Middle East. It is the first time that Iran has ever lost, in thousands of years, to surrounding Middle Eastern Countries. They have said, “Thank you President Trump.” I have said, “You’re welcome!” Iran is no longer the “Bully of the Middle East,” they are, instead, “THE LOSER OF THE MIDDLE EAST,” and will be for many decades until they surrender or, more likely, completely collapse! Today Iran will be hit very hard! Under serious consideration for complete destruction and certain death, because of Iran’s bad behavior, are areas and groups of people that were not considered for targeting up until this moment in time. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
He now has declared victory. He boasts the UK is sending two carriers to assist. I guess Starmer is joining in to be another mad king and own part of this disaster.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won! President DONALD J. TRUMP
BP: Unfurl the banner: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
I swore this was a joke… I’m all for no us reinforcements but literally, how insane is this guy???
from Breaking Points, utube, ~25+minutes.
Lindsey Graham: Iran is “HOLY WAR!” to Remake Middle East
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPDS1k9lAq8
Israel has hit about thirty Iranian oil storage facilities. Total war it is.
(standard disclaimer, unverified, etc. an alleged pic of the scene below) >$100 oil, here we come
https://x.com/GeneralMCNews/status/2030361793504137538
Time to update the “countdown to midnight” clock?
Clocks move forward at midnight tonight. Hopefully that one doesn’t get pushed forward an hour because we only had 85 seconds as it was.
I guess it’s open season on Israeli infrastructure, then.
BBC
Bibi gonna speed-run 2008 GFC, lmao.
things were already spicy enough with private credit, consumer debt/affordability and tech valuations
I am looking on Telegram at videos of cluster munitions falling upon Tel Aviv and wondering if thats part of the reason. They look pretty nasty and not AI.
On the cluster munitions it should be noted that both the U.S. and Israeli did not sign the treaty e.g. fine if they use them but play the international law card when hit with them. With that the term cluster munitions is subjective i.e. these are not the cluster munitions of small bomblets or 30mm canisters filled with ball bearings that became infamous long ago. Based largely on being so indiscriminate, lots of civilians killed/maimed and lot of unexploded ordinance littering the area becoming minefields for the unfortunate.
To date I’ve yet to see any evidence of the smaller anti personnel ordinance being used, not that warheads can’t be a mix load but, seems unlikely due to payload release altitude and speed as they would burn up. What I have seen is a nasty looking round that is more like a 155mm cannon shell without any terminal guidance. I did see but can’t find now one with fins on it which might have terminal guidance upgrades. Hard to tell as some of this dates back to the 12 day war and since then lots of upgrades have occurred – see Russia/China. Especially with the speed of development via Russian Mfg due to the SMO i.e. drones with new chips et al.
Same goes for missiles getting speed boost before impact, mad changes in trajectory, et al. In that its interesting as Iran does not need all the expensive logistics, maintenance, energy, manpower, economic blow-back, etc, because they don’t have too leave their boarders to engage the enemy. In that the longer this goes on the costs to the U.S. and Israel goes through the roof as both societies become more nonfunctional.
Maybe oli’s storage/refinery/elect gen/desal plants on menu now. Israel is small but target-rich country.
Plus maybe oil storage on gulf too? Which might delay post war oil shipments.
Gas prices rising, from 2 days ago, wonder what this will do to prices.
NBC news NY:
Gas prices jump in tri-state area as Middle East conflict continues: AAA
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/gas-prices-ny-nj-ct-iran-middle-east-conflict-aaa/6472968/
Good time to hit the oil storage in the Persian Gulf, if they haven’t already, as they are full.
IRGC targeted/struck (depending on report) Israel’s Haifa oil refinery in response with Khyber-Shakan missiles.
Al Mayadeen (which normally gets it’s IRGC quotes accurate):
The Public Relations Office of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps announced that the Haifa Oil Refinery was struck by Kheibar Shekan missile systems, stating that the attack came in response to the US-Israeli strike on the Tehran Oil Refinery.
The statement added that the 27th wave of Operation True Promise 4 was successfully carried out through a joint operation using drones and missiles against US and Israeli targets.
It explained that during this multi-dimensional strategic operation, Israeli military sites in Haifa in the northern occupied Palestinian territories were precisely targeted using new solid-fuel Kheibar Shekan missile systems operated by the aerospace force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, which are capable of guidance until the moment of impact.
Iranians bringing out the good stuff now.
Haifa is built into the north slope of Mount Carmel on the sea with the refinery just to the north. Strikes on the storage tanks resulting in fires would be unable to be hidden from masses of people. Video would leak censorship. I just did a quick hunt for webcams in Haifa (lots of beach cams there that usually don’t get turned off that have the correct date but wrong local time but sun position looks right for just before noon which it what it should be as I am writing this) and found this one. Wrong direction but sky clear of smoke.
Overnight there were a lot of HFC alerts in northern Israel. It was claimed to be due to rocket and drones from Lebanon.
CNN now saying the US was responsible for bombing the elementary school in Iran:
https://x.com/mrjerrynottom/status/2030157359235092621
Kinda sounds like they’re thinking this war has gone pear shaped.
I think the media, and the Democrats, are all waiting for an opportunity to do something. The Democrats will suddenly align behind a war powers act resolution if Trump looks like he’s losing. The media will suddenly explain how Trump isn’t doing our best by Israel because he’s losing. They’re just biding their time until there’s the right kind of mob for them to be seen leading.
Yes, very plausible.
Guy got elected for telling the truth:
“The War in Iraq was a Big, Fat Mistake”: Trump & Bush Spar over War & 9/11
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whX35NKthQw
But today, I have to admit, W looked much more competent while implementing America’s greatest foreign policy disaster (well, maybe I’m out of date on that) so why not try and tap into some of that “talent” that should have been flushed and retired a long time ago:
Key Iraq War Architect at White House as Iran War Rages
https://www.thedailybeast.com/key-iraq-war-architect-at-white-house-as-iran-war-rages/
This is like me accidentally discharging a weapon and managing to blow a hole in both feet and deciding the guy that did similar but blew a hole in only one foot needs to be called in for advice.
I mean, WTF? What do you have to do in America to finally listen to some people that were right all along? But I’m struggling to figure out who in DC that actually is…
Bodies of US service personnel returning to the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF_mE_FKkZk
The last war lasted 12 days and then Israel called stop.
Iran can’t win a kinetic war against Israel or the US but they can win by not losing.
We are only getting a sliver of videos and info on the damage to Israel. The damage to US bases has been immense.
And basically nothing from US press.
If they don’t lose they have likely kicked the US out of the GCC.
The sinking of the Iranian ship could mean open season on US war ships.
Another week and the price of oil will likely be a lot higher. And then the week after that a lot higher. How long before the pressure on trump goes to the breaking point? $150, $200, $250?
Here is a must watch video by AMB Chas freeman, out today.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gltqzfUnhFg
Are we so certain Iran can’t win via a missile campaign because of the time limits the US and Israel have on their kinetic campaign? It would take several months for the US to stage the people and resources necessary to put a significant presence in Iran. Does anyone here on NC believe that the US economy, let along the global economy, would survive several months of this damage? I’m skeptical that we’ll be able to right this ship if things only go another week or two. And Iran is still playing relatively nice compared to their opponents. I think Trump has until the markets and banks tell him to stand down. I don’t think that’s a timeline measured in months. In which case, I think Iran can do a lot of damage and see us sent running home.
I’m optimistic that if that occurs, Israel will not choose to use nuclear weapons.
This is one of the best discussions by Chas. Freeman. His interlocutor hardly interrupts Freeman at all, and Chas. F’s genial and sensible analysis is well worth all NC readers’ time.
Iran ***Wins*** just by existing and by that effect regional trade/economic outcomes into the future. This is why the U.S./Israel are so adamant about regime change dressed up as a religious terrorist threat. Hence the leadership assassinations and a public call for a pro western [corporatist] public uprising.
Its also the last gasp of influence outside the western hemisphere because Russia/China can’t be budged by economic or military force. So now its a fallback point to its hemisphere.
Trump: Iran bombed the girls’ school; no indication Russia is helping it in the war.
U.S. President Donald Trump was asked about the bombing of the girls’ school in Iran and claimed that “Iran did it.” According to him, “the U.S. has no indications that Russia is helping Iran.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/e0y1pxtwi#google_vignette
Witkoff has asked Russia to stop sharing. Russia will likely remind him that US intelligence, not to mention weapons and mercenaries, are responsible for many Russian lives in Ukreaine.
Talk about chutzpa!
CNN reports otherwise.
And if you’ve lost CNN…
Iran military warns Azerbaijan to expel Israeli presence
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2026/03/iran-military-warns-azerbaijan-to-expel-israeli-presence/amp/
U.S. intelligence sees Canada as ‘serious place of concern for Iranian activity’: National security analyst
https://thehub.ca/2026/03/06/u-s-intelligence-sees-canada-as-serious-place-of-concern-for-iranian-activity-national-security-analyst/
MTG is having none of this. On the Megan Kelly show, utube, ~15+ minutes.
Why Parts of MAGA Feel ABANDONED After Trump Goes to War with Iran, with Marjorie Taylor Greene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvKcHHWhqvs
White House official says US wants to seize Iran’s oil to keep it out of the hands of terrorists. First few minutes of latest Alec Christoforou video-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8anblqF_azk
[Australian] Government considering request for military assistance from Gulf states attacked by Iran
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-08/government-request-military-asset-gulf-states-iran-war-/106429450
Exclusive: Saudi has told Iran not to attack it, warns of possible retaliation, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-has-told-iran-not-attack-it-warns-possible-retaliation-sources-say-2026-03-07/
Iran to choose next Supreme Leader within 24 hours: RT.com
Something tells me Taco isn’t gonna like him!
Gas here in Sonoma County is up 60 cents per gallon from Thursday’s price.
$5.50 per gallon for regular at the cheap station.
$7 per gallon is on the way and it might not stop there, $10 or more certainly seems possible.
One thing we can count on is Trump becoming more extreme and more irrational.
I am acquainted with one evangelical who has always seemed to be a decent man, I’ve known him for near two decades and he is in (No exaggeration) a state of ecstacy because “JESUS IS COMING,Everything in the Bible is coming true and JESUS IS COMING!”
It is sad to see and frightening because there are those in positions of power who also fervently believe this.
Prices are rapidly rising here in Oz as well. My wife read that a coupla petrol stations have already run out and have closed so she has just run to town to top up the fuel in our car. The times they are a changin’.
I always found it more than ironic that of all countries it was the US that would stigmatize Iran as a “theocratic society”. The very place where every aspect of everyday officialdom is addressed with “in God we trust.” Hardly any other society in the world is as irrationally religious except maybe the community of Sicily´s widows.
It’s terrifying to me that people genuinely believe this and that those people might be in positions of authority with world-ending decision making capability.
I guess he ought to be ready to give his wealth to house the homeless and feed the hungry. Or is he not quite that ecstatic?
“Handala Hack has executed an unprecedented and sophisticated cyber operation, targeting the water infrastructure of Jerusalem“
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195993
if you’re wondering why hasn’t the stock market gone dow (yet), a nice, unironic, allegorical twèet. the Commentariat are still “fringe”
https://x.com/KHerriage/status/2029939948573372701
“…This war, including the future of oil prices & equity markets, boils down to one thing; your level of confidence in Trump and the military (US & Israel) in effectively carrying the war out.
My confidence level remains high, which is why we’ve yet to sell a position, while continuing to add to our core holdings.”
And when things go belly up and all his positions are all wiped out, he will be on his knees shouting ‘Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!’
i can’t prove it…but I swear GPIF (Japan’s Social Security fund) was one of many dip-buyers last week.
GPIF has a statutory mandate to balance exposure across JP and non-JP assets. and pre-war, the AI-boom/USD-falling-fueled Japanese stock market meant that GPIF’s allocations were out of whack—meaning a possible consistent, dollar-cost average bid in the market.
Who else has an out-dated view of US full-spectrum dominance besides Boomers (ex-those in commentariat)? Japan, particularly Japanese bureaucrats! lmao
Project Charlie Brown cancelled. Lucy: “I didn’t want Charlie Brown to hurt himself.”
Trump quoted in ToI:
“I don’t want the Kurds to go into Iran… They’re willing to go in, but I’ve told them I don’t want them to go in… The war is complicated enough as it is… We don’t want to see the Kurds get hurt or killed,” Trump tells reporters aboard Air Force One after attending the return of the bodies of the first six American soldiers killed in the conflict with Iran.
Typical Trump upside-down statement. Various Kurdish groups said “no”, and the Iraqi Kurds seemed very anti the idea (see e.g. Shafaq News ). Rubio apparently assured the Turks that the US won’t arm the Kurds.
It’s amazing the extent to which Trump has to portray (and I assume actually believe) himself as in control of events when he clearly isn’t. Strong “I never liked her anyway” vibes.
“they’re willing to go in” is the giveaway
This “get in front of the mob and call it a parade” pattern might be a hopeful sign that DJT is looking for off-ramps.
> … he is in (No exaggeration) a state of ecstacy because “JESUS IS COMING,Everything in the Bible is coming true and JESUS IS COMING!”
What in the familyblogging Hades … How widespread is this? I must confess to never having come across people who actually believe this. Sad and frightening indeed.
Fellow Chris, it is a real thing.
Go visit Liberty University in Lynchburg, VA. Go talk to the true believers from megachurches around Dallas, TX. Talk to several of our representatives. The formula is simple if you read Relevations and the other prophetic books, especially those that are counted on in the Left Behind series: Israel needs to exist so its role in prophecy cam be fulfilled. Then Israel and a whole bunch of Jewish people will die, also part of prophecy, where of all the Jewish people alive at the time only 144,000 will be sealed and saved. This leads to the final act when Jesus returns and, after he defeats the Dragon, establishes the Millenial Kingdom. Forever and ever Amen.
There are people who really believe this. They have positions of authority. They are not afraid of a holy war that ends in fire. I’m not sure what to do about that. I think short of a civil war we won’t be rid of this belief in our leaders.
It’s very common among “independent fundamentalist baptists” — they commonly subscribe to “pre-millenial dispensationalist” eschatology. I think it is also common among more generic baptists. Presbyterians and similar (paedo-baptist traditions) are much less likely to subscribe to this (at least among leadership; laity is another question as there may be circulation of members between these traditions and baptists).
Parents of a close friend were like this and it was impossible to talk to them about the evils perpetrated by the government of Israel; they would quote Genesis 12 and warn that if I cursed Abraham, God would curse me. I think that fear of getting on God’s wrong side re: speaking well or ill of Abraham is a reflexive concern for many in this camp.
If Iran comes out on top in the current crisis, I think it will lead to profound cognitive dissonance and crisis of faith for many of these people.
Iranian strategist: no ceasefire on our agenda Tehran sees Trump in a trap
https://archive.ph/0kMth
Above is a link to an interview with “Hassan Ahmadian, an Iranian strategist and defense theorist seen as close to the Islamic Republic’s security establishment.”
I think the readers here might appreciate this one. Apologies if it was already posted.
I mean wowzers. Someone needs to take this guys keys away. And the football.
Kind of hilarious that Democrats were yammering for years about what a threat Trump is to “our democracy”, and now he’s really wrecking the world, and Democrats continue to be useless.
BBC
Part 1
US hit desalination plant on Qeshm Island (Iran Intl)
Part 2
Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf | MB Ghalibaf (Speaker of Islamic Republic of Iran’s Parliament) (twitter/nitter)
1/ The crime committed by the US-Zionist alliance in targeting the desalination plant on Qeshm Island was carried out with support of a US base in a neighboring country in the south. This aggression will meet a proportionate response.
2/ US bases in the region are platforms for attacking Iran. The origin of any attack is the destination of our response.
Part 3
Iranian drone damages desalination plant in Bahrain (ABC)
FAFO, as I believe the kids say…
this afternoon, it looks like the stock market is ripping higher after Trump’s “seize the Hormuz” comments.
welp, the die have been cast, lol