As with yesterday’s Iran war update, this one will be a bit more skeletal than ones during the week due to this not being a normal posting day for me and my having scheduled obligations. That plus the US time change (I am now only 11 hours ahead versus 12 yesterday) means this post was prepared some hours before launch time and so may be a bit out of date. I will be able to add any breaking items, such as new kinetic war reports, by 8:00 AM EDT, so please refresh your browser and re-read then if you were an early arrival.
There is limited new reporting in the business media due to Saturday not being an advanced economy trading day. However, I anticipate that whatever the Trump team says on Sunday political news shows could prove affect Mr. Market’s mood. The Administration seems to have decide to shovel out deranged positivity, which is already wearing thin. The report immediately below, from Janta Ka Reporter, includes a clip from normally diehard loyal Fox News questioning the official narrative:
From the Aljazeera news feed: “Trump also said the US was “not looking to the Kurds going in”, and that “we don’t want to make the war more complex than it already is”. More on that:
I am hearing that Trump's u-turn on Kurds is largely a result of pressure from Ankara — and Iraqi Kurds being skeptical of the US commitment to the whole plan. Going along would have derailed Washington's relationship with Turkey and Turkish-Kurdish ties. https://t.co/rWW9QUnmzg
The U.S. and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium at a later stage of the war, according to four sources with knowledge of the discussions.
Why it matters: Preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon is one of President Trump’s stated war objectives. The regime’s 450 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium — convertible to weapons grade within weeks — is one key to that goal.
The big picture: Any operation to seize the material would likely require U.S. or Israeli troops on Iranian soil, navigating heavily fortified underground facilities in the middle of a war.
It remains unclear whether it would be an American, Israeli or joint mission.
It would likely only take place after both countries are confident Iran’s military can no longer mount a serious threat to the forces involved.
Behind the scenes: At a congressional briefing Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked whether Iran’s enriched uranium would be secured. “People are going to have to go and get it,” he said, without specifying who.
An Israeli defense official said Trump and his team are seriously considering sending special operations units into Iran for specific missions.
A U.S. official said the administration has discussed two options: removing the material from Iran entirely, or bringing in nuclear experts to dilute it on-site.
The mission would likely involve special operators alongside scientists, possibly from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
If the IAEA were involved in such an operation, this would confirm it is not a good faith actor. Iran-connected sources contended that the IAEA assisted in the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists by providing information about their whereabouts.
Now assuming this raid is executed and does not become Bay of Pigs 2.0, Trump’s team may intend to use this as a cross between the Caracas raid and pre-negotiated “obliteration” strikes on Iranian nuclear site, which ended the 12 Day War. Trump might declare victory and stop attacking and expect Iran to stand down.
But even if that is what transpires, it solves nothing for Iran. First, Israel is sure to regard this resolution as unsatisfactory since they want to eliminate Iranian missiles, and better yet, balkanize Iran. So Israel is sure to find a way to resume a hot conflict as soon as possible. Second, after reaffirming that he had indeed “obliterated” the nuclear sites last year, Trump has recently maintained that somehow the Iranians are very far along with rebuilding their enrichment program.
The story later makes clear what readers have no doubt already worked out, that this scheme sounds barmy:
The U.S. official laid out the operational challenge of securing Iran’s uranium: “The first question is, where is it? The second question is, how do we get to it and how do we get physical control?”
“And then, it would be a decision of the president and the Department of War, CIA, as to whether we wanted to physically transport it or dilute it on premises.”
What they’re saying: Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday that ground troops were possible — but only “for a very good reason.”
“If we ever did that, [the Iranians] would be so decimated that they wouldn’t be able to fight on the ground level,” he said.
Asked specifically whether troops might go in to secure nuclear material, Trump didn’t rule it out. “At some point maybe we will. We haven’t gone after it. We wouldn’t do it now. Maybe we will do it later….”
The intrigue: Beyond the uranium, administration officials tell Axios there has also been discussion of seizing Kharg Island, a strategic terminal responsible for roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports.
We discussed earlier what a nutty idea the idea of taking Kharg Island, first voiced publicly by Keith Kellogg, is. Look at a map. It is in the north end of the Persian Gulf. Daniel Davis and others have discussed long form that sending a convoy open the Strait of Hormuz was asking for a turkey shoot of US vessels. This sort of operation would be that, cubed.
Nevertheless, there are more signs of force mobilization:
Spoke to a family member tonight, a Marine stationed in California. He said half the troops on base have disappeared in the past couple days and that the situation is chaos with those still remaining.
We have a duty as responsible Americans to do whatever we can to stop this.
Danny Haiphong had a very informative talk with Stanislav Krapivnik which provides many details about the progress of the war and its progress, like the destruction of THAAD radars (we has not highlighted the successful strike on an additional one, in Jordan, in our recap yesterday), how US high end weapons are so expensive because they are significantly hand-assembled, and how the US has been caught bombing chalk drawings:
In a similar spirit, Simplicius debunks the idea that the US is living up to its screechy claims of success, starting with a point we and other made earlier, that the reduction in Iranian firing rates does not mean they are starting to run short. From his article, Iran War Shifts to Cynical Plan ‘B’ After US Fails to Fracture ‘Regime’
The entire discussion around the Iran war has now turned to Iran’s “diminishing” scale of strikes, with pro-Western commentators claiming that this means Iran is losing and will eventually succumb to the US-Israeli juggernaut….
I wrote on X why the decline in Iran’s missile salvos is not what it’s being made out to be:
Wrong.
This uses the false assumption that Iran’s opening salvo represents some kind of “normal” daily usage which is then sophistically straw-manned to assert that subsequent days are falling “below average”. In reality, the opening salvos are always meant as an anomalously high barrage that is not ever meant to be sustainable.
Iran is merely switching to normal sustainable long term salvo volumes.
One of the ways we can determine this is by considering that in the last exchange, Iranian missile capabilities were said to be heavily attrited (with various 70-90% figures being given) which was supposed to explain the low salvo counts.
Yet if Iran’s total ballistic capabilities were really that attrited, there’s no way it would have been able to rebuild them just in the past year alone to the point of being able to fire the same massive opening salvos as in the first war.
This leads us to conclude that the opening salvo count merely represents a doctrinal opening barrage, with an attendant ‘regression to the mean’ of regular sustainable salvo volumes.
In short, Iran is merely operating within its normal doctrinal strike procedures. The lower salvo counts should actually scare you, because it represents the base volume that Iran can sustain indefinitely while regenerating stocks 1:1.
They may scoff at this now, but wait 8 months down the line when Iran is still comfortably sending a couple dozen non-interceptable hypersonics with cluster munitions per day like clockwork and you’ll see what kind of systematic attrition that brings to the region.
That’s not to even mention that this relates only to ballistic missiles and doesn’t even address the fact that drone launches have increased, which now strike with increased effectiveness due to the regional AD attrition. It won’t be a laughing matter 8 months down the line when a 1-2 dozen ballistics and 100+ drones are launched daily at exhausted “allied” bases.
As stated, the statistics being presented about Iran’s missile launches are from hasbara sources, particularly the IDF. For instance, Iran’s missile and drone salvos were said to have dropped to almost nothing in the past two days as in the earlier graph, yet UAE has independently reported that the number of attacks it has defended against Iran just today alone is vastly higher than the stated counts:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-deals-with-15-missiles-119-drones-day-8-iran-war
As can be seen, UAE alone reports 15 ballistics and nearly 120 drones launched just at them today, whereas some “official” statistics are showing roughly that amount as total fired by Iran into every direction. If the disparity is true, we’re looking at several orders of magnitude of potential discrepancies between “official” statistics and real launches.
Keep in mind, US’s strikes have likewise fallen off from nearly 1,000 on the first day to an estimated 200-300 per day or less since then—and many if not most of those strikes are hitting superficial targets to “fluff up the score”, like a plane boneyard which surely added a couple dozen “points” to the “impressive” strike list:
We cited Chas Freeman and Scott Ritter making the point that Simplicius turns to next, that the US claimed kills of Iranian missile launchers are sure to be exaggerated. Freeman returns to that argument and also warns Iran may have held back air defense weapons in a new discussion below:
And there is reason to think that Iran has ramped up its weapons production substantially:
Iranian general claims that between the 12 Day War and today Iran ramped up missile production and produced several years worth. Given that they were preparing for war with the US in these weeks this is possible and should be factored in. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 pic.twitter.com/R1ekULsbd6
Note as readers pointed out yesterday in comments, that Freeman has unfortunately taken up the aggressively promoted mainstream take on the “apology” by Iranian president Pezeshkian to its neighbors over its attacks. His statement was admittedly not as clear as it could have been, but it was referring to literal neighbors, as in those sharing a border, as in Azerbaijan, and not Gulf States. As Ben Panga pointed out:
A longer version of his [Pezeshkian’s] comments seem very much like an indirect acknowledgement & apology to Azerbaijan.
Translation “oops, our bad, let’s not escalate plz”
Pezeshkian further conveyed his apologies to neighboring countries that have been attacked by Iran. He explained that Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei as well as many military commanders and ordinary people have been martyred due to the brutal aggression of enemies, noting that when commanders are absent, the brave Armed Forces act decisively to defend the homeland with honor.
Pezeshkian clarified that Iran has no intention of invading neighboring countries, reiterating that they are considered brothers.
He called for collaboration with the neighboring nations to establish peace and tranquility in the region.
Pointing to a decision made during a recent meeting of the temporary leadership council, Pezeshkian reported that the Armed Forces of Iran have been instructed not to attack the neighboring countries or launch missiles unless the enemies intend to attack Iran from those countries.
He also emphasized the importance of resolving issues through diplomacy rather than conflict with neighboring states.
And from Safety First:
Russian state-adjacent television this morning is expounding the theory that Pezeshkian was NOT talking at the Arab Gulf States when he said “I apologize to neighboring countries”. Rather, this was aimed squarely at Azerbaijan, which has been making warlike noises since two Iranian drones hit the airfield in the Nahichevan exclave a day or two ago…
There is a bit of a translation issue, but the Russian TV interpretation is that “neighboring countries” refers to countries with a physical land border – i.e. Azerbaijan (and, to a lesser extent, Iraq, Armenia and Turkey). Basically, the last thing Teheran wants is a land war on with one of these on top of the air/missile war with the US and Israel. Especially with Azerbaijan and Armenia, since Iran’s remaining supply and trade routes for the moment are basically north-to-south either across the Caspian or through Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Some recent kinetic war updates. An attack on US airbase in Erbil from Aljazeera:
Huge blasts in Beirut as Israel says it was targeting Hezbollah command centres via Associated Press:
Some evidence of damage in Israel:
This gives us an idea of the sheer scale of the chaos unleashed by the Iranian attacks, which have been occurring multiple times a day for over a week now. The strikes have already led to 2,000 Israelis being hospitalized, a number similar to the number of Iranians hospitalized.… https://t.co/po9TI6FF2L
Not quite a fatwa against opponents of Iran by Sunni Grand Mufti al-Sumayda’i
, but awfully close:
Iraq’s Grand Mufti Mahdi ibn Ahmad al-Sumayda’i delivered one of the bluntest Sunni positions so far, declaring that the war between Iran and the zionist entity is an ideological confrontation over the future of Islam. He said Muslims are obligated to stand behind any state that… pic.twitter.com/L4pd8fUPVr
No. The strikes on Iranian combat planes have been largely confined to the Western part of Iran. They still have ample capability in the East. Iran maintains 17 Tactical Fighter Bases (TFBs), and in recent years several new airfields have been constructed in central and eastern Iran, with at least two becoming permanent TFBs — the first established since 1979. One known eastern base is TFB.14 near Mashhad, in the far northeast. To protect assets from preemptive strikes, Iran has moved much of its air power underground. The “Eagle 44” (Oghab 44) airbase, unveiled in 2023, is a massive facility carved into the Zagros Mountains, designed to withstand bunker-buster bombs and housing fighter jets, drones, and command facilities. As of February 28, 2026, reports indicate MiG-29s flying over Tehran and Su-24 strike aircraft being repositioned, suggesting active defensive preparations.
We also must correct a line of thought we propagated from a very detailed and credible-seeming analysis, that the major maritime insurers would not resume writing war coverage and time soon because their reserves were too thin. In fact, they have resumed providing war risk riders, albeit on what sounds like a limited basis. From the Financial Times:
While insurance policies for shipping in the region remain active, very large war-risk premiums are being added. Several commercial vessels in the Gulf or just outside the Strait of Hormuz have been targeted with drones. The threat of attack by weaponised Iranian speedboats remains…
This article later notes:
This does not mean that the current disruption is only an Asian problem. Global oil and gas markets are grappling with the crisis. As of Friday morning, the Brent crude oil benchmark was up about 50 per cent from where it was before the US military build-up began in the Gulf. Meanwhile Asian buyers deprived of Qatari cargoes are bidding up the price on the Asian spot market to pull mainly US cargoes away from Europe. Asian spot LNG prices have almost doubled since the war began and the European natural gas price is up about 50 per cent, which puts new pressure on Europe’s economy.
Moreover, Europe and Africa depend on the Gulf for a substantial part of their jet fuel. The longer the war goes on, the more upward pressure will be applied on prices. Shortfalls in Asia will soon show up on gasoline pumps in North America.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but halted — making reality what had long been considered a worst-case scenario for the energy markets. The number of empty oil supertankers in the Gulf is running out, hastening the moment when more production will have to be curtailed.
Hormuz Traffic
Vessel movement through the strait remains largely at a standstill
….Still, executives at four large trading houses, who asked not to be identified, said the market was still too complacent about the likely impact of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and predicted prices could hit $100 in days unless there was some de-escalation of hostilities.
There are already signs of stress in physical energy markets, where cuts at refineries in the Middle East and Asia have caused the price of products like diesel and jet fuel to soar. Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, said that the market is still adjusting to how long Hormuz might be shut.
“We see Brent reaching $100 a barrel and above in the coming days to weeks, once the market accepts that the Hormuz closure is a weeks-long event rather than a brief disruption,” he said.
Oil Heading for $100 a Barrel
Traders are starting to price major global supply disruption
Source: ICE, Bloomberg
….Several owners also said that insurance, which the industry says is available, remains secondary to the safety of their crews. And it’s not even clear that naval escorts will bring a wholesale return to transits….
Angus Blayney, marine divisional director at brokerage Gallagher, said cover is available for ships that plan to remain in the Persian Gulf, as well as those that are looking to enter or exit the area via the strait.
In recent days, Gallagher found marine war risk solutions for existing and new clients, Blayney said, without providing details of the insurance.
Iran's Assembly of Experts (in Persian: Majles-e Khobregan), a council of 88 Islamic clerics (jurists), has approved the recommendation presented for the new leader of the revolution. (serious).
The final announcement is waiting for Donald Trump to come in person…
Take it back, we just added one more tidbit, a video from Hindustan Times discussing Iranian damage to Israel oil infrastructure. But now really done, any update from now on will come in comments.
Kouros
I think these two postings also provide some additional context:
Thanks a lot Yves. Excellent job you are doing with this!
mrsyk
Thank you Yves for providing a space to talk about this with other people who are paying attention. Along with everything else. Almost nineteen years now being my daily read. It occurs to me that I could wake tomorrow to a 404 notice instead. Let’s hope not!
Jonathan Holland Becnel
FACTS
LONG MAY NC REIGN SUPREME
Revenant
On insurance for passage of the Straits of Hormuz, the US announced a $20bn reinsurance programme run by the Development Finance Corporation.
But there is no there there, as Yves would say. The programme is “under development”. The FT has a longer article on the market scepticism of this press release:
And fundamentally, the carriers will not sail that route if they think they will lose a hull, even if insured, because (1) if the straits remain closed and their ship is sunk, they would have to go to court to get paid in the distant future and the payout would not cover the rebuild costs and the lost income of not having a hull would be high whereas (2) if the straits reopen in a few weeks, the losses are low so why, in retrospect, take the risk? There is no scenario here in which carrier decisions are dominated by US actions / announcements, only Iranian ones.
NB: the decision above is dressed up by carriers as concern for their crews but pull the other one!
Jason Boxman
That’s my thinking as well; even if you’re compensated, you’ve lost a ship. These must be highly specialized and expensive to replace, with long lead times. Wouldn’t it be better to be making money with that hull somewhere that it won’t get sunk?
tegnost
There are also ships currently “trapped” in the gulf who are laden with $60 oil, which getting more valuable by the day. Isn’t that what contango is? The ships are full of oil more valuble than the futures it was purchased under. This is like wiki level explanation, others can improve it, but the fact remains, don’t get your cheap oil blown up when it’s twice as valuable. Capitalists retain their god given right to profit.
Ignacio
Thank you Revenant. This, the insurance scheme, is one of the pieces indicating improvisation to find a solution for a problem everyone, including the incumbents, knew was very likely to occur. The Iranians had indeed announced it! Aurelien (please forgive me this) would “say” welcome to the days when missiles are readily available to countries like Iran! The incumbents also knew this! So, why the hell these criminal idiots started something for which they didn’t have a solution ready?
Today it is remarkable a shift at El Pais which is now condemning the attack by the US and Israel, Trump & Netanyahoo, in a more severe and formal way than before. They say this war marks the end of the rules based order and now everything is endangered. Including here the EU as stated in a op-ed (Spanish). Yes, for the first time I read about the danger of EU disintegration and here it says that some countries “did a bad political reading of the conflict” (here Germany and France at least are the culprits). Here the op-ed author refers to a paper titled “Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran” authored by a couple from the European Council of Foreign Relations. So, may be something starts to move within sclerotic Europe.
With regards to the UK i would, for once, say something good about Starmer’s stance! Of course Blair is 100% with Trump. Just in case nobody had notice the bag of s#it this man has turned to be on ageing. Not that The Blair was any good before but…
jsn
The laxative is starting to work, but a lot has to move before Europe can cure its cranial rectal inversion.
ChrisPacific
I have noticed the same in terms of the global narrative starting to shift. There’s been an increase in commentary based on legality under international law, more parties willing to come out and say openly that the US should be operating under UN auspices, and so on.
I think they are starting to see it’s all likely to take a very bad turn, and since Trump has not been shy about taking ownership of all of this, they want to make sure any blame is pinned squarely on him.
Jonathan Holland Becnel
Because the Epstein Class is behind all this.
Discredit the US Government.
Get them involved with Iran and have them and Israel fail while killing all the poor people on both sides.
Take over the economy with their Palantir and TechnoFeudal companies.
We know why all this is happening. The Epstein Devils are murderous, warmongering FUCKS who need to be dealt with once and for all.
THE PARTYS OVER
N
Run by Leon Black’s kid too!
This is absolutely the Epstein administration.
Victor Sciamarelli
The US should take Kharg Island, said General Keith Kellogg, which is within artillery range from the hills of Iran’s shoreline. One would think General Kellogg would know that when the British occupied Boston during the revolution, General Washington pulled some cannons up a nearby hill and pummeled the Brits until the survivors evacuated Boston. The Americans on Kharg would experience a similar fate.
Louis Fyne
How do you say, “Snake Island” in Farsi?
Kouros
Zmeyi Ostrov?
Patrick J Morrison
I am also reminded of Gallipoli, where minefields and shore artillery ended the naval approach.
hk
Anzio, minus Allued battleships providing fire support of last resort? (without naval gunfire, Tigers would probably have broken free.)
David
In WW2 Churchil had a mad idea of sending a fleet into the Baltic to cut off Scandinavian trade to Germany. This was at the dn fo 39/40. THhe First Sea lor, Admiral Pound, played along while dragging his heels until the plan was dropped. He knew it would be suicide.
eg
Churchill was the “genius” behind Gallipoli and Dieppe, eh?
Jokerstein
Dien Bien Phu, Sarajevo, etc.
ChrisFromGA
Oil tops $95 on blockchain and hyperliquid weekend trading:
It’s only my 2 cents but I think markets are going to checkmate Taco this week. The futures markets open around 6:30 PM EST, which is now 10 and a half hours from now.
If the Dow and Nasdaq take another pounding this week, I predict he’ll Taco. We don’t know what form that takes – it will certainly be accompanied by grandiose rhetoric on how “we won!” along with statements lacking evidence, such as Iran’s military capabilities are completely destroyed.
Samuel Conner
What “chicken out” scenario acceptable to Iran (as a condition for their own de-escalation) would be within the envelope of things that DJT would consider politically feasible?
Not asking a rhetorical question; I’m genuinely curious, wanting this crisis to end.
Roquentin
Yeah, that’s the big difference between this war and his stupid tariffs. You can’t simply change your mind after a week and wave a war out of existence because you decided it was no longer a good idea.
David
And maybe that will make things worse. Might the think the markets don’t like this so we best end it quickly. Lets drop sole nukes to do that.
dmr
To belabour the obvious, I think we can all see what’s in store in days to come. Israel has but to feel itself on the back foot, not to say in mortal peril (as from an attack – whether initiated or launched as reprisal – on its desalination facilities) and it will not scruple to drop a tactical nuclear device somewhere within Iran with or without an American imprimatur.
As to what follows, who can say? Of this everybody the world over is terrified, I think it true to say.
Copeland
“You can’t simply….”
Rational persons, no, but Trump can….and has….the 12 day War.
I sure hope he does decide that, but as we all know here, Iran bats last.
Acacia
This. We could see a “market-driven Taco” this week, but Iran is in the driver’s seat now.
TimH
As Yves has pointed out:
1. TACO won’t stop Israel, who want Iran finished, and who don’t honour ceasefires etc anyway
2. Iran needs to get the situation to a position where it can’t be restarted by Israel and US
ChrisFromGA
I hadn’t considered that Israel may be in charge here. I want to say Trump still has agency, but if there is some Epstein blackmail material being held in reserve, I could be wrong. Or if he is simply too far gone mentally to push back in any material way.
KD
Trump has no agency here. He is Darth Vader with the American Death Star to Emperor Bibi. His political survival is completely dependent on Israel, even if it leads to his political demise. They can’t provide a rationale for the war because they had no rationale, they were only obeying orders.
hk
US forcibly and credibly denuclearizes and denazifies Israel. (ie, na ga happen.)
Jason Boxman
And stops sending arms; much of the tonnage is coming over from the US. Is Trump going to tell State to stop approving weapons shipments to Israel as the latter continues to bomb Iran even without the US? Will the US stand down any remaining interceptor platforms?
Trump can’t climbdown from this, even if he wants to.
To quote LotR, Gandalf, in Return of the King, ominously
Understand this . . . things are now in
motion that cannot be undone.
Carolinian
You’re right, but he’s already testing out the we won rhetoric. The point being that he thinks he has an escape hatch.
Wukchumni
‘Omission Accomplished’
Jokerstein
Maybe this is the week Trumpo gets jettisoned? With the mid-terms approaching, I can’t believe there aren’t backroom discussions going on about how to get rid of him. People have surely learned that they kept Genocide Joe in so long that they completely screwed the pooch for the Ds getting elected.
Like an old boss of mine says (and I agree entirely) if you start thinking you need to fire someone, start doing it – you only ever regret keeping someone in position for too long, not to little…
Wukchumni
Our politicians could have voiced their displeasure over a war Benedict Donald started, but remained as quiet as church mice when push>met<shove.
They're content to go down with the ship~
Revenant
“End the pain or you’ll have pain without end” as my chairman used to say.
ChrisFromGA
“Chicken out” is probably the wrong framing, as others pointed out.
Qatar is now saying oil goes to $150 within days, not weeks:
If that happens, you can kiss Mr. Market goodbye. The S&P’s feeble rally attempts will get strangled in the crib. By summer, we’re likely to see a 20% fall in stocks, which indicates a bear market, just in time for the midterm campaigns.
At that point, it will no longer be politically feasible for Trump to continue the war. Some sort of face-saving exit will need to occur.
Wukchumni
Isn’t this more the TOFU* version of Benedict Donald?
* Trump Often Family-Blogs Up
mrsyk
Good morning. Glad there’s a vegan option, making America healthy again and all that.
I imagine Trump would like to TACO, but like the rest of us he’s condemned to learning the hard way.
One common theme on AoR(Axis of Resistance) channels is that it is Iran that is dictating the pace. Any former basketball coach will agree that that this wins games.
Wukchumni
If this war was to last a fortnight, why then this would be half-time, lets go get some quotes from the locker room…
‘The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender’
‘Sometimes it’s not how good you are, but how bad you want it’
‘Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off the goal’
mrsyk
Heh heh, a distinct and familiar looking lack of Xs and Os.
Ben Panga
“Often” seems too generous
Trump Obviously F-ed Up?
vao
I think the established meaning is “Trump Only F**** Up”.
There is also TAPAS for “Trump Always Pouts And Submits”.
thoughtfulperson
I hope you are correct, however, it seems doubling down may be what happens. We hear too many rumors of ground troops and their movements.
First comes hubris, then insanity (where were are now?), then nemesis, then destruction.
Curious
What about the opposite? The people “in the know” in this war on all sides have access to oil future markets. They are also capable of ordering strikes and other actions that drive the prices higher. So what is to stop them from making guaranteed money. I get that other people are can plead them to stop, but they personally will be just fine. Am I missing something that would stop them from doing that in either Israel, US, or Iran?
ISL
if you forgive me for refining – He will try to TACO. Unless he is willing to leave the Middle East forever. The US killed the pope on Lent – equivalent.
redleg
The problem with this is that Iran, not the US, decides when Iran stops shooting. The idiots in DC can declare victory but Iran doesn’t have to stop firing.
Given that both Isr and US are not capable of negotiation or agreement, there’s no tactical, operational, or strategic reason for Iran to stop the war even (especially?) if both US and Isr declare victory.
I’m dumbfounded as to how people don’t understand this concept. I believe that the commentariat here understand this but outside of here the lack of critical thinking is painful to see.
tgs
If Trump does a taco, I fear Israel will use a nuke.
LawnDart
If Israel uses a nuke, that will end Israel.
ambrit
I think that Israel “ended” when Rabin was assassinated.
Since then, we have been “blessed” with the State of Zion.
Stay safe.
Will
Met with Rapturous applause by “Christians” around the world.
Louis Fyne
re. “getting” the enriched uranium.
No one in DC has read about, remembers “Desert One”? DC has reached terminal retard, brain-rot levels….in part cuz using the word “retard” to call-out retards hurt people’s feelings, lol
bertl
I prefer the term, “Low functioning simpletons steeped in ignorance”. Much more precise and less offensive than, “retard”, IMHO. Trump, of course, is as mad as a f*cking hatter and should be whisked offstage in a straightjacket or coffin.
raspberry jam
I watched the Hindustan Times video referencing the Haifa refinery strike. The video claiming it is the Haifa refinery has a notice that it is unverified. The refinery is near the kiryat yam beach. Here is a live web cam (currently on and updating). No smoke so if it was hit it wasn’t severe.
There is something else near the refinery of interest to the Iran targeting if they are serious: Rafael.
Carolinian
The Israelis censor all reports but allow live webcams?
And surely if it hasn’t been hit then the correct assessment is hasn’t been hit yet.
Jabura Basadai
suppose they could just put the camera on a loop to fool –
Ben Panga
Good sleuthing RJ.
Rafael (The weapons manufacturer) HQ to Haifa Oil refinery is <10km according to Google maps
Fwiw there was video of (supposedly) something smoking at Haifa Oil refinery, but it doesn’t look like much
Yeah I don’t doubt it was hit, it was hit last summer. I just think if they had landed a serious hit it wouldn’t be able to be hidden.
Rafael HQ is in range of the Lebanon rockets and the fact that it has lasted to now without a clear strike through multiple conflicts is part of their marketing. It is to be assumed they have a lot of AD around it
Cat Burglar
What might this tell us about the accuracy of Iranian targeting? Postol has said that an improvement in their missile guidance systems could make the outcome materially different than in June.
The Haifa refinery is surely important to disable. Are Iranian missiles so inaccurate that they have been unable to damage it significantly? Or are other sites, like military bases, more important to target?
S Domain
Iranian missiles can in no way be considered inaccurate. I refer you to the Wikipedia entry for the 2020 missile attack on the al-Asad Airbase, aka Operation Martyr Soleimani, in which ballistic missiles hit specific buildings on the base. The embedded video is worth watching if you have not seen it before.
From memory, Andrei Martyanov commented at the time that one missile was targeted at the geometric centre of the main runway to make it clear to the US that Iran had the both the ISR capability and a small enough CEP to hit whatever targets they wished. I am quite sure there will have been improvements in both capabilities in the years since that attack.
The question of the damage sustained (or not) by the Haifa refinery is not one of accuracy, but rather one of intent.
lyman alpha blob
The scroll at Al Mayadeen is currently reporting that Iran will be increasing its drone attacks by 20% and its missile attacks by 100%, including the use of new generation missiles for the first time -https://english.almayadeen.net/
Polar Socialist
According to Trita Parsi (x.com) Pezeshkian’s statement was a response to Gulf states proposal for de-escalation. If so, I can assume that the perceived “lull” in strikes was also related to that.
Meanwhile, IRGC representative said that after the 12 day war Iran quadrupled it’s missile production. Of course there are no reliable figures as to from what to what, but at some point Israeli intelligence estimate was 100 missiles per month.
Wukchumni
What if we could only build a handful of B-17’s and Sherman tanks a month by hand in 1944?
That’s how it feels with our mega million $ missiles…
Hepativore
I have long ago concluded that most of our much-vaunted “high-tech” military hardware actually exists as a sink to get us to spend as much money and resources as possible building and maintaining these pieces of equipment in order to provide lucrative business for private military contractors rather than for any practical usage in actual warfare which is why the US military isn’t as powerful as it likes to pretend to be because of how bloated it has become.
This is much like how money and resources are deliberately wasted in building and then subsequently dismantling the “floating fortresses” in Nineteen Eighty-Four to keep the proles deliberately impoverished.
Glen
I’m actually amazed there isn’t much more discussion about the fact that Russia and China spend much much less and are getting much much more from their version of the MIC. I keep hearing American MIC “makes stuff by hand” and I really don’t think the level of automation in Russia or a place like Iran is better than America. (China no doubt could have better automation if it’s required.)
What those countires don’t have is American CEOs and MBAs that are singularly focused on maximal profit rather than being innovative and productive (or quite frankly at this point even appearing to be patriotic if you ask me). All the contracting I dealt with in the USN were fixed price contracts, not cost plus, and the DCAA typically had representatives on location in the factories monitoring our contracts. I’ve been out of the service too long now to get a good sense of what’s happen but I don’t think jumping the DOW budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion is a sign of progress, more like a disaster in progress. Those CEOs and MBAs have the MIC on a “handbag boutique” industry model just so Western governments can spend hundreds of billions to display the latest high tech system of one that gets taken out by a low cost drone. And don’t even get me started on being totally reliant on critical materials from other countries – there were Federal laws (in addition to [family blogging] common sense) stopping that when I was in service.
Acacia
Agree with your analysis, and I believe there have been a couple of articles here at NC that explored this.
jsn
Because Markets.
When you let your politics become a market, it’s only a few minutes until politics optimizes for profits.
Happened here shortly after the second Iraq war, American might has been pure Madison Avenue since then. Our few boutique weapons are plenty deadly if you’re on the receiving end of one of the few, and this, until now has been the basis of our power.
The Rev Kev
‘RT
@RT_com
New Supreme Leader has been OFFICIALLY CHOSEN — senior Iran cleric Ayatollah Alamolhoda
Announcement now ‘rests entirely with Secretariat of Assembly of Experts’’
You can guarantee that Trump has already given the orders to find and kill him because, you know, it worked out so well the first time. And Trump will not stop until he gets to choose Iran’s next Supreme leader, even if the guy is a Christian.
JohnH
Tony Blair is probably campaigning for the job already!
hk
If Iranian ayatollahs like trolling (and from what we’ve seen, they just might!) they’d have elected Trump, conditionsl on him coming to Tehran and officially and publicly converting to Shi’ism.
Theo Haris
I don’t know where RT got this from, but it seems the actual new Supreme Leader is Khamenei’s son.
This from Iranian channels:
Reports confirm that Mojtaba Khamenei has been chosen as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, succeeding his father Ali Khamenei.
Louis Fyne
just realized. pretty telling that the DC Dem. mobilization machine has no problem trotting out the lame “No Kings” protests.
But an anti-war protest? that’s not an official marching order, and the dopamine-addled, virtue-signalling cat herds don’t have the brain cells to mobilize themselves….unlike that one brave Commentariat person who literally stood on a street corner, by themself with their one sign
Yalt
We had a protest downtown here yesterday, though turnout was muted thanks to a couple of lines of bad thunderstorms. I’m sure it would have been small anyway. There was one in Dayton as well; there isn’t much press interest as you might expect but the Jewish News Syndicate is keeping tabs (they’re called “pro-regime protests”).
They’re sponsored by ANSWER and the DSA as usual and if they attract some of the Trump-betrayed-us MTG types there might be some useful conversations.
It’s odd. There’s less support for this war than any I can ever remember…but there’s also less visible opposition.
mrsyk
My wife and I were just discussing the lack of protests. Team blue’s financial conflict of interest was where we landed. They got AIPAC on their minds.
lyman alpha blob
If I had the ambition, I could likely walk down the street and see some No Kings protestors on the sidewalk right now. If I walked by two hours from now, they’d all be gone since the “protest” appears to have start and stop times designated by the Democrat party which the protestors dutifully follow.
How long did it take for Democrats to impeach Trump after a mid-level riot had them cowering in closets? But murder hundreds of Venezuelans with airstrikes, kidnap their president, assassinate the leader of Iran while starting WW3? Well, maybe they could try to pass a procedural vote after the war is already started, no impeachment needed. Move it along people nothing to see here! Democrats are Officer Barbrady when what we need is Judge Dredd.
Jason Boxman
It seems “our Democracy” is working just swell for liberal Democrats, protestations aside.
The Democrat Party is incapable of rising to any moment in time; if Trump really does cancel the midterms, expect nothing more than sternly worded letters from the Democrat Party.
Bugs
In Paris yesterday there were competing pro and anti-war protesters – there is an Iranian exile community here, mostly upper caste; they were out there supporting the return of the monarchy. Just some news from the ground.
Milton
At the Iranian market where I shop, they usually have a “Free Iran” banner out front. Since the start of the war, it is no longer on display. I wonder if there’s a split amongst the exiles. Maybe there’s a limit as to how much they’d like to the Revolutionary gov’t removed. 180+ children will do that.
marku52
I’ve been doing that. Be out tomorrow again.
Jonathan Holland Becnel
The “ANSWER” coalition had a SAY NO TO IRAN WAR protest yesterday.
The local PSL people invited me.
I encouraged them to start throwing Anti Epstein Rallies and to demand a new popular united front.
I also told them not to be led by the liberals in DSA and Indivisible.
The nice young lady from New Orleans agreed with everything I said but time is ticking away and squandering uniting the populist left in New Orleans with the Populist Right in the suburbs and ex urbs encircling it N, S, E, and W.
vao
“US high end weapons are so expensive because they are significantly hand-assembled”
I am still amazed by the fact that in the past three decades the USA and increasingly Europe have been backsliding:
1) From industry: large-scale mass production following standardized, mechanized processes, respecting tight tolerances, and optimized for cost control.
2) Towards manufacture: fabrication of single items (e.g. those super-duper radars that Iran just blew up) or small series (e.g. THAAD system, French self-propelled howitzer Caesar), with customization and variations often rendering instances of the same model incompatible with each other (e.g. F-35 “blocks”), hand-crafted by highly specialized personnel without regard to cost.
Back to the 18th century.
On the other hand, the Russians (artillery shells, missiles of all kinds, armoured vehicles) and Iranians (drones, ballistic missiles) seem to remain firm proponents of the 20th century industrial approach.
As for the developments and the ideas about the US Navy forcing the Hormuz strait, marines occupying the Kargh island, or special forces elbowing their way towards the Iranian stash of enriched uranium: I am wondering what role will the increasing number of aircraft carriers dispatched by the USA play in those scenarios?
Revenant
Will Schryver (@imetatronink) thinks the Gerald Ford is sailing to the Red Sea via Suez to provide air deference for Saudi petrochemical assets on the red Sea (trans-Saudi pipeline, tankering etc) and will not transit the Bab el Mandeb and risk the wrath of the Houthis.
I think this is a very sharp insight. The carriers and destroyers etc represent huge floating radar and air defence platforms. Iran has knocked out the stationary defences so the carrier groups are having to be used in substitute defence rather than attack.
Positioning the Gerald Ford carrier group east of Israel may restore some of the early warning ability for the Iron Dome, if the data can be fed across in the sane way as THAAD etc. The VLS refill problem (the US lacks at sea replenishment capability) is solved by keeping the carrier close along shore.
However, this does give Iran – and the Houthis! – a very tempting fixed target. A huge volley of missiles and drones converging all at once on the oil infrastructure, port and carrier group would deplete overwhelm it, forcing it into port to refill, and a follow-up could catch it with its pants down….
Louis Fyne
I think Will is spot on. the Red Sea long…something like the distance from Chicago to Miami. we should know by tonight US time or tomorrow AM. can’t remember exactly when they went through the Suez
TimH
Forget the hasbara propaganda for the ra-ra nationalist MSM watchers (used to be readers, sigh)… think of the personnel every country’s armed services and intel outfits have scouring the blogs of Will Schryver, gCaptain etc to see whether their cunning plans have been noticed.
They probably have a default weighting factor for info from every key participant, whether blog poster or commentator, and AI to prioritise.
ddt
I would think it would be in the best interest of the Iranians and their allies to disable but not sink a carrier.
The Rev Kev
Would a French or British carrier do? They are sailing for the war zone too and Trump would not care if they got hit.
Bugs
Macron says that the Charles de Gaulle will stay in the Mediterranean. That will probably not change in the near term.
vao
Damaging an aircraft carrier is much better than sinking it because:
1) A disabled ship can no longer participate in the fight; it is as good as sunk.
2) The USA/France/UK must divert other ships to tow it back to port.
3) The damaged ship will be berthed for repairs, occupying a dock and technical crews, thus preventing other existing ships from being maintained or new ships from being built — probably for a long time in the case of the USA, given the dismal state of its shipyards.
And specifically for aircraft carriers from the USA and France:
4) They are nuclear powered, so sinking them eventually means a very nasty, long-lasting pollution because of all the radioactive isotopes seeping into regional waters. Better not count on any kind of high-tech operation to salvage the reactor from the shipwreck, so make sure the vessel has enough buoyancy to return to its home port.
JohnH
Disabling an aircraft carrier doesn’t generate the media outrage that sinking one would. So far media exuberance for the war has been curiously limited, but a sunken aircraft could be used as a rallying cry like the “attack” on the USS Maddox was used to escalate US involvement in Vietnam.
I’m frankly surprised that we are yet to see any major false flag action from Trump and Hegseth.
Carolinian
Exactly. Just punch a few holes in the flight deck.
And the same goes for attacking Israel. The Postol scenario of leveling Tel Aviv isn’t necessary. The point that the Iranians need to make is that our puffed up, would be world conquerors can dish it out but can’t take it. As someone here said they have a glass jaw.
mrsyk
That glass jaw is spelled n-e-o-l-I-b-e-r-a-l-I-s-m.
The just in time/aversion to inventories thing will be the end of us, just like the outsourcing of our industry.
Thanks Bill!
Expat2uruguay
“Thanks Bill!” – I think this reveals a common fallacy, to blame the person who started it. There have been several Presidents since then that did nothing to fix it. I blame them more because the problem becomes more apparent as time goes on.
I blame less the first person who was just trying something new and didn’t know how it would turn out. Leaders should be able to try new things. But the ones who come later and ignore the problem should get an even larger share of the blame if that new thing turns out to have been a bad choice. IMHO
mrsyk
Agree for the most part, just trying to point out the bipartisan nature of where we are at, which your point dovetails nicely.
Glen
Yes, I remain astonished that our elites spend forty years outsourcing the manufacturing base, trashing our education system, crushing the middle class, two decades of senseless wars that grind down the military, and run the country so that healthcare, housing, and food are so much more unaffordable, and are unable to realize that all this $hit is linked together at real low levels.
Run your country into the ground means your “empire” is sure to follow. That’s not exactly rocket science.
They really want to continue to live in that bubble of 1992 maximum unipolar moment and have surrounded themselves with stooges and a MSM to beat back reality.
IanB
Re: “However, this does give Iran – and the Houthis! – a very tempting fixed target.” –
The only reasonable place I can see in the entire Red Sea for a carrier group to resupply is at Jeddah. There are significant Saudi military bases at both the port and the airport. All well within the range of Iranian missiles.
Randall Flagg
>As for the developments and the ideas about the US Navy forcing the Hormuz strait, marines occupying the Kargh island, or special forces elbowing their way towards the Iranian stash of enriched uranium: I am wondering what role will the increasing number of aircraft carriers dispatched by the USA play in those scenarios?
They will play the role of artificial reefs at the rate things are going…
It might be that any new carrier on the scene will replace those already there. I believe that the USS Gerald R. Ford, for example, has been at sea for over eight months and not only is their crew exhausted but that carrier will require months in port for maintenance and overhaul. You can’t keep ships at sea for so long as you are just building up trouble for yourself and you can bet that the crew of that carrier will be glad to finally go home and see their families. But I doubt that the White House staff understand this and US admirals are always eager to please by agreeing to any extra assignments added to their ship’s workloads.
John k
Imo the purpose of us weapons production is profit, not effectiveness/reliability etc. maximize profit by small production (low input cost, minimal employees etc), sole source/no competition to max profit. Too bad that means improvements are glacial. Naturally no incentive to be able to quickly ramp up whether 155mm shells or missiles. Want more product? No problem, 50b up front check will do it, should be foll production maybe 2030? If all goes well. And somebody else finds some rare earths. And…
Funny, Iran/russia/China have no prob with quantity at low cost… weird system…
Tom Stone
No mention of Jihad to speak of?
I wonder how long it will take for the Trump administration to find an excuse for Martial Law, his administration has been defying the Courts for Months and that is about to come to a head, Martial Law is just the kind of “Solution” that appeals to these idiots.
Trump s deranged and I mean that in a literal sense, he will double down or worse and when it becomes clear his War is a loser he will look for someone or some thing he can smash and that is likely to be here in the USA.
Why should there be a jihad? That implies an organized force. There is no organized religious force.
Some have said that if there is a fatwa by the new Supreme Leader, who is the top authority among the Shia, Shia in Gulf States and Saudi Arabia would turn on their government. Shia are something like 80% of the population of Bahrain. They are more like 13% in Saudi Arabia but have long been the oil field workers.
Ben Panga
>No mention of Jihad
I believe Football Pete Hegseth, offensive hack for The Jerusalem Heifers, has in fact declared jihad.
lyman alpha blob
Indeed.
I finally got a start today on a book mentioned often over the years at NC – Voltaire’s Bastards – and came across a quote from Voltaire that seems apropos to this current conflict, especially with the ‘holy war’ rhetoric coming from some of the more delusional Westerners and the state of armed conflict today –
“Dieu n’est pas pour les gros bataillons, mais pour ceux qui tirent le mieux.”
“God doesn’t favor those with the huge battalions, but those who are the best shots.”
Valiant Johnson
Perhaps the whole world will remember this Alamo
The Rev Kev
I was thinking of comparing it to Athens’s disastrous Sicilian Expedition but that one was popular with the Athenians-
However, I just finished re-reading John Michael Greer’s “Twilight’s Last Gleaming” which this time around was uncomfortable reading. The US decides to invade a country to steal it’s oil which ends up in a military defeat which destabilizes the United States-
Why should we spend 45-minutes of our lives watching this video?
What makes this relevent to people who are not already subscribed to the “Due Dissendnce” channel?
ISL
I am concerned about Professor Jiang, his analysis is half accurate – for example, he uses the CIA line that the US has air superiority. This is a key and very improtant point (teh US has lotsof dumb bombs but not so many tomahawks, so if it cannot overfly Iran, it cant use dumb bombs), Plus 5 US jets have been shot down -qand there is zero evidence for it – see Alistair Crooke – so why is he repeating a CIA talking point as a starting point for his arguments.
This is one example, but it raises the question as to whether he is ill-informed or is consciously partly supporting US psy-ops. There are other cases, and so I stopped bothering to listen to him given my time constraints.
Not saying he is wrong, but extra attention is needed.
Joe Well
February 28, 2026: a date that will live in infamy
mrsyk
Alamo, the first five letters of the new Supreme Leader’s name.
Ann
Israel will target ‘every successor’ appointed by Iran’s Islamic regime, IDF warns
I am currently sitting at an outdoor cafe across from St John’s cathedral in old Valletta and there is a giant Iran flag flying in front of the church (during Sunday service no less). Just a little note for the crusaders in the white house that the message is not landing on the street!
hk
Wow, on the literal crusader island and one of the most Catholic countries on Earth!
raspberry jam
I went to get a closer look. Republic Street is lined with flags for the bienniale. Iran and Lebanon flags were near the church. No Israel or American flags present.
The memory of the WW2 siege is still very strong here.
flora
Thanks for this post.
I watched T’s press conference on utube yesterday. I watch the short clip of him receiving the bodies of killed US service men and women at Dover AFB.His face and body language looked like that of a broken man. The slump, the hiding under a hat that no longer means anything, the drawn face. Rubio as much as said Isr forced the US to attack Iran. Is the US Isr’s colony? Who or what is running the US admin? (I had the same question about who was running the B admin. Even the B admin did not let itself get sucked into another war for Isr.)
carolinus
I respectfully disagree on the B admin having clean hands. Aiding and abetting a genocide and giving cover to these monsters has emboldened them and led to further atrocities. When I read people complaining that abstaining from voting for Harris led to this war my blood boils (not you, Flora. Have been seeing this claim on reddit).
Ann
Hakeem Jeffries won’t commit to blocking additional Iran war funding
(Pushes photo of Epstein across the table) It all comes back to this guy and who he was affiliated with. That’s the tail that wags the dog. It flies the zn’ist flag.
The way I see it is we would be in this same spot were Harris elected.
jsn
All true even as Epic Fury transitions to Epstein Fubar.
tegnost
Thats right, the whole lot of them brag about “the most lethal armed forces in the World!”.
Those are not the words of a peace monger. Harris was too busy speaking to listen and lost as a consequence. These things are written in stone. Biden Harris led the country into both ukraine and gaza unapologetically, and both were long term operations over many administrations. There is no good party, they are two wings of extra national global finance from the tpp to commodity control and all schemes between. Someone linked (TomDority at 10:20am) in conors post I think a 2012 harvard study that showed that to be true even then. Anyone remember st. obama? My “taxi driver” is my med mba brother who is drenched in orthodoxy, convinced that ai is ruining his class, to which I can only ponder “first they came for the gays…” as he is a committed employed of undocumented labor which particularly in san diego means don’t be a worker of any nationality there because cheap is the only thing that counts so I couldnt get out of there fast enough. Another strongly held belief is that traffic jam of every kind and size of vehicle between palm springs and LA will be all self driving in one tech bro unit (10 yrs., of course), while I’m thinking in 10 years 80% of the cars that are being self driven by the human will still be in that traffic jam. And rambling my way to the point, he laments that the dems are not in charge because of course it would be better, no citations offered or received.
J.B
Im no longer sure just saying aiding and abetting is sufficient. Our country was an active accomplice in commiting the genocide. Our drones and jets along with the British were flying over Gaza every day mapping out and gathering intelligence for the Israelis.
LawnDart
Remember 2016 when dems were actively aiding Trump in order for him to become the repub nominee? He’d be a push-over, they said…
How’d that work out?!?
Cassandra
>Even the B admin did not let itself get sucked into another war for Isr.
Ukraine has entered the chat.
I will grant you that war was not at the behest of Israel. There are competing crime families.
“Known as the “zombie fungus,” it manipulates its hosts—such as ants and spiders—by controlling their behavior, compelling them to climb to elevated positions before dying, allowing the fungus to release spores and infect new hosts.”
Safety First
The IRGC made two separate statements yesterday. The most salient points of which are:
1. In the first week, Iran fired 600 missiles and 2600 drones of all types (https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195975#). The statement also gives a couple of additional nuggets, such as a 60/40 breakdown between US/Israeli targets.
Let’s take Day 1 out of the equation, which, if memory does not fail me this AM, was ~300 missiles and ~1000 drones. For the remaining six days this leaves an average rate of 50 missiles and 266 drones per day; let’s round that down to 40 missiles and 250 drones per day. Over 180-7 = 173 days that means Iran is prepared to fire 6920 missiles and 43250 drones before it has to reduce operational intensity. I can even round these figures down to 6k and 40k. This is still vastly more than US and Israeli defenses are capable of dealing with, it seems to me.
Larry Johnson had posted that the US will start running down its PAC-3 Patriot stocks by March 19th; I think that with rationing, and especially if the Iranians reduce the launches further by switching from older, more plentiful to newer, more expensive missiles, the Pentagon can stretch things into April. But unless someone is lying about the figures, at some point soon basic arithmetic will mean the end. In fact, at some point Iran might legitimately start to run out of US targets, but that’s a different order problem.
The only way for the US to break this arithmetic, other than “regime change”, is:
a) Attrit the launchers and seal up missile base entrances. This is difficult, provided the Iranians are not wholly incompetent. And it would be virtually impossible to stop drone launches, as the experience of both sides in Ukraine amply demonstrates.
b) Hit the factories, or, more importantly, their logistical chains (because the factories themselves can be underground, but at some point materials have to be transported by truck). This requires air dominance over much of the country, and would still not do anything to extant stocks of thousands of missiles and (I am guessing) tens of thousands of drones.
c) Give the Iranians another target to shoot at. Like the Kurds. Or the Azeris. Or whatever. The Russians actually seem pretty worried about Aliev, so who knows.
d) Try to pull the British Indirect Approach That Never Works(TM) type of strategy by dropping troops via helos into Bandar Abbas or Kharg Island, thus “ending” Iranian oil exports and…something something. Somehow, I suspect this will not go quite like the Siege of Tehran map in one of them “Call of Duty” video games, and yes, this is a thing, from back in 2021.
e) Try to get the Iranians to surrender by first attacking their cities with conventional weapons, and then, ultimately, a few nukes. This is the worst case scenario, and I’m not sure the Pentagon will go for it, but with increasing desperation in the White House and in Tel Aviv anything is possible.
f) Conversely, Trump could try to PT Barnum the situation by doing One Big Strike, then immediately stopping operations and declaring victory. Not sure what happens at that point, since a lot will depend on how the Iranians play the situation.
Even the most ga-ga pro-American Homer Simpsonesque USA-USA individual in the room has to take a pause at this point. One would think.
We had a post on this earlier. Attriting the launchers is close to pointless. Unlike the US, the Iranians designed their mobile launchers to use readily available truck chassis. So the limiting factor for them is the missiles, not the launchers.
I can’t quickly find the long tweet in which this appeared, but this gives you an idea:
You think the U.S. military can: – Identify this ordinary truck – Hit it before it can hit one of their Persian Gulf bases
Or that Iran: – Has any limitations in producing such simple missile launchers – Has not produced a very high quantity of these
Another advantage is the ability to use a wide range of launchers. According to the published images, the launcher used for the Khyber-Shakan missile is mounted on a 10-wheel commercial chassis that can also be camouflaged as a commercial vehicle
Polar Socialist
I believe the missile in the picture is Fateh-110D, so we may need to define “sophisticated” in this case. It may actually be two missiles, as that’s the usual set-up with these MB-truck launchers.
It uses solid fuel booster, so from storage to launch should take only minutes. It has, allegedly, fiber-optical gyroscopes, satellite-based mid-course correction, half-a-ton warhead, 300 km range and CEP of few tens of meters.
I guess it’s sophisticated enough for driving US from the Gulf. And reminding Azerbaijan of the brotherhood between the two nations.
In any case, these could be hard to detect but are costly to make and not unlimited.
David
They may not have a limit on trucks that are suitable to use. But trucks and launchers are not the same thing. So launchers may still be a limiting factor.
What it does mean is that if a launcher is destroyed on a truck, they only have to build a new launcher, not a specilaised vehicle that it sits on.
No, we published a close to article length tweet that said the reverse. But since you had to click through to get the detail, I am not readily able to find it again on Twitter, and do not have time to dig through the last 4 days of posts.
But see:
Credible sources have confirmed most of Iranian missiles now come from mobile launchers mounted on a truck. . . . White House NEPA Otega Adelabu Daniel Bwala Tinubu Asake Mehdi Spurs The blueprint Brandon Kristi Noem Borno Boko Haram Reno Ethereum Etherean Tomo Rufai NYSC pic.twitter.com/opggB8u8YZ
a) Attrit the launchers and seal up missile base entrances. This is difficult, provided the Iranians are not wholly incompetent. And it would be virtually impossible to stop drone launches, as the experience of both sides in Ukraine amply demonstrates.
Not going to happen. Mobile on commercial truck chasses. [As Yves says.] Larry Johnson noted zero actual intercepts of Iraqi mobile launchers during Iraq invasion and total air supremacy.
b) Hit the factories, or, more importantly, their logistical chains (because the factories themselves can be underground, but at some point materials have to be transported by truck). This requires air dominance over much of the country, and would still not do anything to extant stocks of thousands of missiles and (I am guessing) tens of thousands of drones.
20 years of supplies. IRGC broken into 32 autonomous subunits each with attack orders and stashes of missiles and air defense capabilities. Its already dispersed. Its already hidden. Country is a desert surrounded by mountains. Lots of terrain to hide in. Remember Nixon trying to bomb the Viet Cong supply lines?
c) Give the Iranians another target to shoot at. Like the Kurds. Or the Azeris. Or whatever. The Russians actually seem pretty worried about Aliev, so who knows.
Yeah, Iran only has about 1.0 million ground forces, and any ethnic separatists are going to be geographically isolated. It worked so well for Iraq with chemical weapons, didn’t it?
d) Try to pull the British Indirect Approach That Never Works(TM) type of strategy by dropping troops via helos into Bandar Abbas or Kharg Island, thus “ending” Iranian oil exports and…something something. Somehow, I suspect this will not go quite like the Siege of Tehran map in one of them “Call of Duty” video games, and yes, this is a thing, from back in 2021.
Better to cut their hearts out on an altar to placate the Sun, same chance of success, same outcome, but faster and more humane.
e) Try to get the Iranians to surrender by first attacking their cities with conventional weapons, and then, ultimately, a few nukes. This is the worst case scenario, and I’m not sure the Pentagon will go for it, but with increasing desperation in the White House and in Tel Aviv anything is possible.
Yeah, but no one in history has ever been able to secure a victory relying solely on air power. Ultimately, who cares, people die, territory is poisoned, the survivors relocate and fight on. Read about what was dropped on the Island of Japan in WWII. It wasn’t the bomb that caused the surrender.
f) Conversely, Trump could try to PT Barnum the situation by doing One Big Strike, then immediately stopping operations and declaring victory. Not sure what happens at that point, since a lot will depend on how the Iranians play the situation.
Not going to happen. Israel is in an existential struggle with Iran which will not stop until one of them is destroyed. Sure, there could be a cease fire in which both sides attempt to gain advantage over the other side in the next battle. But Trump won’t walk away and leave Israel out to dry, and Iran has no incentive to stop attacks any time soon until they can inflict a strategic defeat.
The real problem for the US is after the exhaustion of AD stocks and shortly thereafter, offensive missile stocks, combined with the Chinese ban on rare earth and other products, why wouldn’t the Russians expand attacks into Poland and Germany, knocking out Ukrainian logistics and triggering a potential invocation of Article V (and the end of NATO when the trump sounds unanswered), while China implements a strategic blockade of Taiwan? You can live for years in fear of a bully, but if someone manages to stab him in the leg and he starts to bleed out, isn’t that the time when everyone else comes in to finish him off?
America has this glorious conventional army, but our carriers have to operate 1000 kilometers away because they are sitting ducks for mid-range hypersonics, unmanned air drones are a serious match for manned jets, and much cheaper to produce. The US barely has any combat forces once you realize it is about 8:1 combat support to combat troops given the logistical trains necessary to operate across continents. Yeah, the US has a lot of nukes but so does Russia and China. No, this is the end for the Empire, the end of the US presence in the ME, the end of globalization, the end of the dollar, financial collapse, and some major shifts in spheres of influence and the balance of power unseen since 1991. SHTF.
Afro
It’s sad and enraging to think about but I can’t help but assume that this war will go nuclear.
Lefty Godot
That is my biggest worry too. Trump sounds completely deranged now, like an obnoxious drunk falling off his bar stool and getting ready to have delirium tremens. And he’s surrounded himself with other psychotics and moral midgets who will just go along with whatever insanity pops into Trump’s addled brain. He’s actually making senile Joe Biden look almost fully compos mentis by comparison. Having a genuine madman in the White House controlling our nuclear arsenal is extremely frightening. If some patriotic members of our military who still take their oath to the Constitution seriously can’t stop him, he could destroy the world just to keep his vanity intact.
chris
I don’t think the nuclear exchange starts with the US. I think the US response to a nuclear exchange makes it worse.
If the US abandons Israel while Israel is still nuclear capable, then Israel will use its weapons. If the US and Israel appear to be losing, and no opportunities for improvement exist, Israel will use its weapons. If the war becomes worse and Israeli citizens revolt and dislodge Netanyahu and his people, there will be a mad dash for using their weapons. If Israel can target someone else to get them to take out Iran, Israel will use its weapons. On the current trajectory I don’t see any reason why Israel won’t be employing nuclear weapons in this conflict. Which as you said is sad and enraging.
But to think through what we know has already been said about one of those scenarios, if Israel nukes Iran, then Pakistan nukes Israel. India likely takes the opportunity to respond in kind and attacks Pakistan. Pakistan will respond against India if they are able. Other nations may use this as cover to enact their goals using these massive weapons. China and North Korea might get creative. Which all points to the reason why this conflict was so stupid.
The US has no control over outcomes. The US has no ability to de-escalate or control things. The course of the conflict is out of our hands. Even if we were to miraculously get Israel to commit to demilitarizing their country Iran doesn’t have to stop and likely wouldn’t stop until they believed they were safe. The US also can’t keep this up. Our ability to produce weapons is too degraded. Our economy is too weak to continue this effort for very long. Which is why I think we might engage in use of small warheads to take out opponents while we’re losing. But I still think it isn’t the US who starts the nuclear exchanges. It’s Israel because they have badly miscalculated how effective the Iranians would be and how much support they have from the US.
redleg
If US abandons Isr, I can see them nuking Iran and the US.
I can also see Trump authorizing use of nukes.
Lefty Godot
The Samson option has them nuking every European capital once they feel the need for a terminal temper tantrum. Quite a threat. I don’t know if Russia might have a capability of shooting down Israeli nukes aimed at Moscow and St. Petersburg, but the chances of any of the other European nations being able to do it are probably really slim.
upstater
Wrong! That’s what those radars and Aegis Ashore missile tubes in Poland and Romania are for! /s off
S Domain
Moscow has potentially the most comprehensive AD (air defense) complex of any city in the world. The silo-launched A-135 Nudol and its replacement, the A-235 are exo-atmospheric missiles whose acceleration out-of-the-can really has to be seen to be believed (Wikipedia). Depending on your source, they are reported to carry a low-yield conventional nuke or a neutron bomb, and are able to clear out a volume considerably greater than that provided by a kinetic kill vehicle. Then there are the S-500 and S-550 AD complexes which also have the ability to track and hit hyper-sonic maneuvering targets.
Per Andrei Martyanov (apologies for not providing a link, but Andrei’s blog does not lend itself to searching), Moscow could likely defend itself from the full French nuclear arsenal, but if Israel indeed has the 300 nukes that is being mentioned of late, and the delivery systems for that many warheads, then that is a different story.
However, given the cordial relations between Vladimir and Bibi, I see no reason why Israel would be so reckless as to attack the Russian Federation with any sort of weapon.
Jokerstein
If some patriotic members of our military who still take their oath to the Constitution seriously can’t stop him, he could destroy the world just to keep his vanity intact.
We’ve already seen that if you try that you might get your arm broken by a sitting Senator…
Amateur Socialist
Yeah, I was a little less worried about this before I learned how many military officers are giving the troops religious doctrine as inspiration. The USAF academy has been known to be thick with evangelical types for decades. And now many of them are officers in a crusade for Christ ™
Not clear that there’s any source for it beyond “one guy said so”; I’ve not seen any sources that don’t trace their origin to the MRFF, and if it were true and widespread, I’d expect at least some of those soldiers to have reached out elsewhere.
Ghost in the Machine
I have to imagine that Russia and China have been discussing this possibility. It seems that they should have attack orders for their subs (or other assets?) if they happen across one of those Israeli submarines.
And what has Putin said to Bibi in those private talks?
I feature Mose all the time on my weekly radio show. Thanks for the reminder I will again soon.
WJ
If Iran continues to survive while damaging Israel as we move up the escalation ladder, then I think this is likely the way the war will turn nuclear:
1. Israel out of desperation will eventually use tactical nukes against Iran, while denying that it is doing so.
2. Iran will announce that Israel has used nukes, and will attack the Israel nuclear facility Dimona in response to Israeli use of tactical nukes.
3. Israel nukes Iran again, on the grounds that Iran’s attacking Dimona is equivalent to a nuclear attack.
4. Eventually the U.S. joins Israel in this project.
Acacia
Do we know for sure that Iran hasn’t already hit Dimona?
They have targeted many places in the Negev desert.
During the June kerfuffle, IIRC, Iran struck a few places very close to Dimona, i.e., to send a message.
ISL
Russia and China are all in to make certain Iran doesn’t lose – and that the US does. This means they will not allow Trump/Nettanyahoo to trump Russia and China’s near existential strategy by threatening nukes – I assume if Israel does use a nuke, Russia has communicated to the US that several high altitude EMPs will occur over the Middle East and will take out all US military assets (and oil production for a decade), as well as eliminating Israeli’ ability to function above the caveman level – Hezbollah with guns can take over Israel, then.
The US zionists will skin Trump alive if he allows this to unfold as will the Epstein Oligrachy Class who stands to lose trillions and trillions and trillions. Somewhere around this point I expect a US military coup.
It just doesn’t stand to reason that Russia and China would go this far in and allow such an obvious card to cancel their future. OTH, Ted Postol argues that in 3-4 weeks Iran can have 10 nukes and deter Israel (i.e., deterrence), possibly from a week ago.
What do we make of the fact the MSM news has for the last few days been hyping the landing of a *single* B-1 Lancer at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, UK, on March 6, 2026, specifically for use against Iran.
Will the nuclear attack, should it happen, be delivered from a single plane launched from the UK? Or do they want the Iranians to think so.
Ok this is what Iran needs to be doing to drive Netanyahu to the bargaining table (visible strikes in civilian areas that can’t be obscured by censorship). In the last few days of the 12 days last summer it was the residential blocks getting hit in Allenby (upper class neighborhood in central Tel Aviv) that led to normal Israelis accepting maybe they were out of their depth. They didn’t know about the lack of interceptors. Netanyahu was under serious pressure to stop the strikes after it was clear civilians were not safe
Jabura Basadai
bargaining table? – offer of a blindfold and a last cigarette is more in order –
raspberry jam
On a personal level I absolutely agree. But as an observer with more familiarity with Israel itself and the current political climate, right now I don’t see a clear path to getting there from here. If you believe (as I do) that much of what is driving Netanyahu’s actions is staying out of prison due to his ongoing corruption trial that keeps getting delayed by war-driven states of exception (I think it was telling that on day 3 or 4 Trump was bleating at Herzog again to pardon Netanyahu immediately “so he could focus on the war”), then I see only a handful of routes for Israel to stop:
– Jerusalem is flattened, including the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa and the Knesset: extremely unlikely IMHO
– Netanyahu is assassinated: 40%, either by Iran before the end of hostilities or by the Kahanist/settler faction shortly after if he cuts the war short
– Netanyahu is arrested: 30%, requires significant military backing in addition to factional cohesion by the non-Kahanists in power, something that has not yet been in evidence the last 5+ years (but Bennett appears to be maneuvering)
– Netanyahu is removed in a military coup: 10%, may be possible if there are enough high ranking officers who refuse to follow orders to preemptively use the nukes
– Enough civilian infrastructure (not necessarily casualties) is destroyed to destroy the fantasy of Israeli air defense during wars on seven fronts: 90%, it was how the war last summer ended (it will be spun as some form of victory or blaming the Iran populace for not rising up when given the option to lay the foundation for a future round)
Jabura Basadai
forgot to add – /sarc – of course obvious – agree with your driving force why, and it took a populace agreeing with him once started – been circling the drain since Rabin taken out – also agree it will take the 90% route to jam the obvious down their throats – and it will be well deserved –
ISL
If I use my imagination, I would say, Iran can hit the water treatment plants, the electric power plants, the trasmission stations, the gas systems, the sewage treatment plants, refineries, etc., etc., and the IDF will be overwhelmed with keeping millions of starving, desperate Israelis alive but not allowing them to leave.
Then, use the drones to keep the military air fields unoperational – say 50 drones per day should succeed – remember US jets needs a perfect runway or their jets suck in debris and die. Then Hezbollah can move south, probably with Turkish sheep dipped troops (as Erdogan will choose the winning camel to ride rather than the two he is currently riding.
Iran’s goal is to make Israel untenable for a population of more than a few hundred thousand, and the US to lose all its bases in West Asia. An Iranian military base in the holy land, would also likely be part. of the settlement.
Tom Stone
I’d like to see a major newspaper publish a cumulative list of Americans who die in this War under the heading “He/She Died for Israel”.
As a “Way to honor those who gave their all in this holy cause”.
Do it deadpan, no obvious snark and without specifying what the “Holy Cause” is.
ChrisRUEcon
One of the most brutal tweets (via X) I’ve seen so far.
Ben Panga
Forgive me for copy/pasting from yesterday. I gotta stop posting stuff just before the new post appears :)
I’ve not copied the links due to tiredness/laziness but the point is clear.
Proportional, and point very well made.
—
Part 1
US hit desalination plant on Qeshm Island (Iran Intl)
Part 2
Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf | MB Ghalibaf (Speaker of Islamic Republic of Iran’s Parliament) (twitter/nitter)
1/ The crime committed by the US-Zionist alliance in targeting the desalination plant on Qeshm Island was carried out with support of a US base in a neighboring country in the south. This aggression will meet a proportionate response.
2/ US bases in the region are platforms for attacking Iran. The origin of any attack is the destination of our response.
Part 3
Iranian drone damages desalination plant in Bahrain (ABC)
Israel-US attack five oil facilities in Iran. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson says attack on energy infrastructure marks dangerous new phase of war.
-Iran and Israel both in danger of wearing each other down completely
-danger to Iran in the long run, since no economy, and CIA trying to prepare unrest in fringe areas of Iran where proxy forces are strong enough / also why US bombs police stations and barracks
-such global chaos, it is impossible to predict anything and extremely volatile and dangerous
-Garland mentions Texas primaries and furious GOP voters
-much can collapse or already has, US supremacy, maritime trade, non-proliferation, global energy markets, AI bubble bursting due to Gulf states in crisis
-what if ISR nukes Iran? What happens THEN? Arab states demanding nukes etc.
fun moment in the end: Never has it been so peaceful around…North Korea.
Nixon speculative add-on: He believes Venezuela not working out for US as planned as they might try to simply stall and not do anything the US wanted them to. He doesn´t say what exactly though.
Not analgous circumstances, but, based on abjectly violent brutal long-duration war between Iraq and Iran in the 80’s, USreal may be greatly misunderestimating the many squirting unknown unknowns that lie in wait.
It’s a hard habit to break, this USrael magikal thinking.
Thank you for all of the coverage and comments. Fingers crossed it doesn’t go kinetic nuke.
Maybe somehow it dulls the shine and brings some focus on the mal-investment in AI, in the US, globally, and Space (a-hem- still waiting for my royalty checks from Elroy) .
The hoi polloi plebes may actually rise up and reset priorities for humanity than ever sharper war and death machines?
Extroverted Introvert
Seeing the us news about “collecting” the uranium. My reading is there will be tactical nuke used today on the Iranian uranium storage facility. It will be detonated underground to minimize fallout. But here we go. This is just my humble opinion.
Carolinian
You are assuming they will use the ultimate weapon against the thing they aren’t even worried about. It would, assuming used by Israel, also require them to to fully admit to the world that they have usable nuclear weapons.
So, to sum up, a nuclear proliferator using a nuke to stop proliferation.
Israel is a tiny country and their real regional dominance weapon is the United States and that’s the weapon they are trying to deploy at the moment. This weapon may be, as the atomic scientists say, a fizzle. Any use of nuclear weapons is already an admission of defeat and futility because you will face similar retaliation once Pandora’s Box is opened. There are plenty of warheads floating around now.
Acacia
Agree with this.
During the negotiations, before US/Israel bombed the table, Iran already agreed to dramatic concessions on the nuke program, but the US/Israel went ahead and attacked them anyway. Ergo, this war is not about Iran and uranium.
This conflict is about Iran as a regional power standing in the way of Eretz Israel. It’s about effing with China and Russia.
As always “uranium” and “Islamofascism” are being used to frighten ppl and help tilt the public against Iran.
Jason Boxman
We’re assuming Israel is a rational actor in this? Don’t events provide evidence to the contrary?
chris
“So, to sum up, a nuclear proliferator using a nuke to stop proliferation.”
Sounds great! I’ll take two of them…
I think we left logic and reason behind a long time ago. We’re here because of desperate people who want to maintain a status quo that can no longer be supported. They want to get as much of their wish list accomplished before the window of opportunity closes. So we’ll see who is really in charge soon. The business interests or the Zionists. My guess after looking at market trends today is that if people care at all about the business side of things, the US adventure is shut down in the next two weeks. At which point it will be too late to prevent a lot of serious circumstances from occurring. If we go past that horizon, it means there will be no negotiations internally or externally with the Zionist elements. They are in control and this will continue until they are dead or we are.
ISL
Uranium storage Facility with a big sign on it and an arrow – bomb here? Have you even seen the missile city tunnels – Col Davis has been showing them. If I were Iran, I would put it a mile down any one of dozens of miles and miles of tunnels, with only a few knowing which and where. And a full Hydrogen Bomb would do nothing. It is clear from the US targeting hospitals and schools, and paintings of missile launchers on the ground, that the US is not winning the Intel war.
Before the war, Scott went on and on about the amazing things US Intel would do to win the war. Now he is arguing they are incompetent nincompoops based on the actual battlefield outcomes. All the US bases and their radars and flattened. Iran is hitting the CIA and soldiers in their hotel rooms. Russia gave Iran Starlink sniffers to identify turncoats and spies, and this stopped the BIG CIA plan to win the war with the riots (who didn’t know such a thing was possible). Since then, the US has had no strategy.
re silc
I’m going long on US companies who make body bags……..
amfortas
i live on the northern edge of the llano uplift…all that pink granite in the big whorehouse in austin comes from out this way.
so in addition to various quarries and outfits that shape and saw the granite(marble(sic) is pretty much gone, i hear)…theres lots of headstone makers.
ill drive by one of them on thursday and see if theyve got more blanks than last time i was through there 2 weeks ago.
Socal Rhino
Per a report today in the Washington Post, a pre-war intelligence assessment that a large scale ground invasion would be unable to topple the Iranian regime. A leak by Tulsi Gabbard presumably.
“I have no idea what he’s talking about, who he is. I couldn’t care less,” Mr. Trump told CBS News, adding that Larijani has “already been defeated.”
“He intended to take over the Middle East and he’s conceded and surrendered to all of those countries because of me,” Mr. Trump told CBS News on Saturday night, when asked about Larijani. “He’s already surrendered to all of the Middle Eastern countries because he was trying to take over the entire Middle East. That’s why all of those rockets were long ago aimed at those countries. He had that planned, long before this started.”
“It’s been incredible, the job we’ve done. The missiles are blow to smithereens,” Mr. Trump said. “They’re down to very few. The drones are blown. The factories are being blown up as we speak. The navy is gone, it’s at the bottom of the sea. Forty-two ships, 42, in six days, 42 ships. The navy is gone. The air force is gone. Every single element of their military is gone. Their leadership is gone. There’s not a thing that’s not gone.”
“We’re winning at levels never seen before and quickly,” Mr. Trump added.
When asked if he would like to see U.S. allies do more at this juncture, Mr. Trump said, “I couldn’t care less. They can do whatever they want. The loyal ones are already in.”
Among many nonsensical lines, I notice Trump genuinely doesn’t know the difference between Larijani and Pezeshkian.
mrsyk
Thank you, I think. Wow. That man is going to get us all killed.
Surely someone higher up the food chain than me has noticed.
Paleobotanist
Plenty of the German high command reached similar conclusions in WWII. They were not successful in their efforts and died via piano wire.
erstwhile
And how gone is trump? Long gone Don.
Tom Stone
That someone high enough on the food chain to make Trump see sense is Jesus Christ and He hasn’t arrived yet.
According to Evangelicals He will be right along some day soon, as soon as that Armageddon thingy is done with.
Ive been playing Tom Lehrer’s ” National Brotherhood week” and “We will all go together when we go” to keep my spirits up.
Enjoy the Beauty today brings you and make sure your potassium iodide is handy.
Expat2uruguay
From my reading Potassium Iodide is of rather limited use. Primarily useful for younger people and only blocks one form of cancer. Not one and done either
Revenant
Keeping a good long-term supply of uncontaminated potassium iodide and calcium and table salt will help avoid iodine radionuclides and also caesium. Multiminerals would help minimise dietary up take of any iron, copper, zinc and trace metals. Most of the other emitters are gases (krypton, oxygen, nitrogen) or heavy metals (wash produce, don’t eat soil or dust!).
Iodine is thought by some to protect against cancer generally so there’s no harm in taking a non-toxic dose. (studies in Japanese immigrants in the US showed a strong generational effect, with first generation having low Japanese rates and third generation having high US rates of breast cancer, with a signal that dietary shift was implicated).
Eric Anderson
Take with a grain of salt because things are moving fast, but @cirnosad is reporting that Iran has taken out four (4) additional AN/TPY2 AESA GaAs or GaN based X-band portable radars that were hustled to the combat theatre from non-theatre locations. See thread here: https://xcancel.com/cirnosad/status/2030672325306372248#m
“Breaking News🚨: Iranian officials have officially confirmed that a U.S. air operation in Tehran failed, & 173 American soldiers & officers from the U.S. military’s elite unit known as “Delta Force” were captured.”
This confirms a Tweext I saw a couple of days ago.
Ben Panga
That doesn’t seem like a reliable source. Account started as a fake- hot Persian chick account begging for monetisation and evolved into a “saying wild shit about Iran and Israel” account.
Have seen nothing on pro Iranian telegram or news.
If it was true, it would be all over the internet, not “confirmed” without a source by a random spam account hoping for engagement.
JM
Agreed, I haven’t seen anything even close to this anywhere.
The pics are definitely fake.
ChrisFromGA
Two things can be simultaneously true:
1. The pics are fake
2. Some soldiers really were captured.
In fact, if I were working for the infowar department of the Pentagon, releasing fake AI pictures to discredit the operation would be exactly the right move.
lyman alpha blob
Isn’t that interesting if true. Delta Force’s 1st big operation was a botched hostage rescue attempt……46 years ago in Iran.
Just a reminder that Delta Force was created after Congress briefly displayed a spine in the 70s and forced oversight of the CIA who had been the ones previously running clandestine murder missions. So the higher ups created Delta Force to do the same s*it the CIA used to do, without the pesky oversight.
Tom Stone
Delta troop soldiers are very expensive troops, a very small percentage of troops have the physical, mental and emotional qualities (Psychopathy?) that the job requires.
The training is not cheap and neither is their equipage or ongoing maintenance and improvement.
Lots of $ per trooper and they can not be easily replaced.
Losing this many in a day…..oops.
Ex-PFC Chuck
Retired Army Chief of Staff General Mark Miley assesses the status of the war.
“In this war, our weakness lies in supply and logistics, unlike Iran, a continental power of 93 million inhabitants whose territory is equivalent to that of all of Western Europe.”
If monitoring AJ English live feed is any indicator, Israel seems to be announcing more Iranian missile salvos in the last 24 or so hours, but then no information comes after that. Since it is so difficult to know what is really happening inside Israel, one can only speculate on the likely increase in attacks and increase in damage on the ground in Israel, but that’s just a crude guess.
The emperor displays symptoms of mental disorder, he just claimed that Iran itself attacked the girls’ school. The desperate Israeli/US appear to be attacking more civilian infrastructure, hospitals, etc. The suffering of Iranians (as well as Lebanese, Palestinians etc.) is heartbreaking, and sadly there will be much more damage and death in the coming days and weeks. However, the Iranians know that this is an existential war and it looks like they will fight as long as they are able to continue to launch missiles.
Alastair Crooke mentioned Iranian decentralized command and control systems and even if Tehran is flattened the “dead hand” will continue to launch missiles. I extrapolate this to mean that even if the US/Isr use so-called tactical nuclear weapons, Iran could still continue to inflict damage. By this time the US/Isr would have run out of interceptors.
Stas Krapivnik’s reaction to the possible special forces or any ground invasion from US, Israel, Kurds, or Azerbaijan appears is “have fun”. The “leaked” intel in the WaPo article claims that even a large scale invasion would not likely affect regime change. And experts agree, the US does not have the capability for a large scale invasion.
“It seems like the king of Bahrain has fled the country, and many U.S. military bases have been destroyed.”
Needs confirmation but big if true.
Ben Panga
Seems like BS. I think we’d have seen something about the “people on the streets and taking control”. Video seems very sus.
JM
Closest I saw was a video of some security forces shooting some sort of dispersal round at a group of people yesterday or the day before. Said it was Bahrain, but I have no way to confirm it – or that it was actually a recent vid for that matter.
Everything needs to be taken with a couple pinches of salt, and checked against at least one or two other sources.
Ben Panga
I’ve been reading lightly about the process of a US nuke launch. I’m completely ignorant.
If I understand correctly:
Trump alone orders it. (No checks, designed to be quick in case of attack).
Stratcom Commander (and Trump appointee) Richard A. Correll receives call and is only plausible person to say “hold on, this is illegal” due to eg strike on civilian target.
From Corell, order goes to actual button pressers who are less likely to do anything but press button.
Is this right?
(Also JFC that I am researching this for a war of choice)
Al
See below. This was a pretty good article about possible scenarios. Written a few days prior to the US launching strikes on Iran. Might be of some interest to you and others.
We don´t know what is really being said behind closed doors in the WH and between military and
WH.
Whatever bluster Hegseth or Trump are putting out it´s acting. Look at Rubio. He already is way more critical in comparison. That looks rather like a usual divison of roles in public.
Hegseth appears like any person of public interest who hates to play the moron but follows orders. It´s the part he was cast for in January. And he fulfills it.
What it was Israel promised before, quick assassinations or no more Epstein or a whole package of carrot and sticks to Trump, is another matter. And in how far there was a lot of coersion.
You seriously telling me he appoints Gabbard and then doesn´t believe her but still keeps her there?
He can say whatever he wants to in public. He is POTUS.
That doesn´t mean it´s what he really thinks.
Nixon from media´s POV too did all kinds of stupid things eventually but only fell because one of the “plumbers” sang.
Hadn´t it been for Hunt and that other dude, probably no resignation.
This now looks more like a question of lacking competence than sanity.
JonnyJames
Hegseth hates to play the moron. Well, he’s definitely not the most brilliant Sec. of Defense in US history…
Re Nixon, I agree. Congress did not seem at all interested in impeaching or prosecuting Nixon/Kissinger for carpet-bombing SE Asia without even informing Congress, let alone getting formal approval.
Rip Van Winkle
Watergate didn’t take Nixon down; Watergate was planned to take Nixon down.
He wouldn’t go as far as MIC wanted and right before his end said, “I know who killed Jack.”
True Disbeliever
@Rip Van Winkle,
“I know who killed Jack.”
At your convenience, please identify the source.
Dr. John Carpenter
Who says Hegseth is playing?
Tom Stone
Hegseth ” Looks Right” and Trump knew who he was so he is now SecWar.
If you pay a little time looking at what he has said and done I believe you will see that he is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
He is manifestly unqualified, the job requires intelligence and integrity and he is lacking in both.
Tom Stone
Carrot and stick work together to control the ones you own.
And a persons price is often much lower than you might assume.
AIPAC gave my local Republican representative $18K with the implicit ( And recently explicit in some cases) threat that they would fund an opponent if he got out of line.
He hasn’t criticized the Genocide in Gaza, votes the right way an arms deals and is generally a well behaved big biz/big ag republican.
He is opposed to this War and is having a “Town Hall” with a number of Veterans who are also opposed to this madness on Friday, in Napa.
And it is madness, this is not sane behavior on the part of the Israeli’s or the Trump administration.
John Wright
I believe you are referring to a “wine country” Democrat in Napa/Sonoma Counties
He is also a Vietnam Vet, which made his Gaza stance even more cynical, as he should know better.
Maybe he had a “come to Jesus” moment.
The event has already happened Friday, March 6.
Henry Moon Pie
“Hadn´t it been for Hunt and that other dude, probably no resignation. ”
Maybe you’re thinking of Gordon Liddy, who ran the original burglary along with Hunt. Liddy later became a TV star of sorts. But it was Alexander Butterfield who spilled the beans to Congress about the recording system.
AG
Thanks, it must be Butterfield, I always forget the name because he was none of the biggies everybody is aware of re: Watergate.
GailStorm
Just cause something is a bad idea doesn’t mean they aren’t going to do it. If the war continues they are going to have to clear the Strait. That would mean focusing on decimating the southeast coast of Iran until it’s possible to land a ground force to push north. No need for regime change is the US can control the coast.This is pie in the sky considering the terrain and being outnumbered but I’d bet it’s in the planning stage. Would suck to be a US soldier right now.
We can’t clear the Strait. Every military expert who has looked at this has not only said that it is beyond the US’ means, but an attempt would create a mass casualty event.
David
That doesn’t mean they won’t try though. And there were lots of military experts who said an invasion of Iraq would be a disaster in the short term for the USA. Whereas the initial invasion was a cakewalk.
Now this is different. But it doesn’t mean they don’t think they can pull it off.
2. I was paying attention then and do not recall anyone (save at most a tiny fringe) who predicted the 2003 invasion would be a disaster.
3. Iran is nearly 4x as big as Iraq and heavily mountainous while Iraq is as flat as a pancake.
4. The US military is a shadow of what it was in 2003
5. It would take 6 months+ to get the logistics for an invasion in place
6. ISR and drones have democratized warfare. Iran has multiple types of hypersonic missiles. We have none. Iran has more and better drones than we do. We could not even beat the Houthis, FFS.
An invasion would be (at best) putting two hands into an Iranian buzzsaw.
ilsm
I was a contractor for USArmy programs close to logistics (retirement gig) March 2003. I heard no one worry about invading Iraq.
We had been no fly zone and sanctions on Iraq since 1992!
That said grabbing a small section of the mountainous coast would be like grabbing Monte Casino in WW II, or busting through past 38 paraellel in Korea 1953. Bloody grind.
David
I’m not sure why I have to get a grip. All I’m saying is that just because it will most likely be a disaster doesn’t mean they won’t try. You have been posting lots of articles and links to people saying an air campaign would be a disaster and they still did that. If anything things going badly probably increases the chances of them doing something very reckless.
I think that David has a point. Everyone with US or NATO military evidence understands that it’s a fool’s errand to try, but the chain of command is currently filled with fools.
I think that the US “leadership” is dumb enough to attempt such a masterpiece without the appropriate and necessary buildup. This administration is utterly incompetent and the flag officers give no indication that they have the courage and wisdom to say no, or even “not yet”.
As indicated. we don’t have the logistics. We can’t keep troops supplied with ammo, food, or even water.
Ritter in a new interview on Counterpunch says the troop call-up as to secure bases and embassies. We pointed out the bases are at risk of being looted.
The navy refused to execute the idea of breaking the Strait of Hormuz blockage. They will refuse to go in in anything bigger than special forces #a w/o many many many months of pre-positioning supplies. War will be over beforr then.
The military also refused Trump’s order to pull out of Afghanistan. So 2x we know of.
nyleta
They are obviously going to do something with the 82 nd airborne. Since they think this is an episode of the A Team anything is possible but the only thing I can think of, landing in Iran opposite Kargh Island will be impossible to resupply, let alone enough airfields since as General Miley says their logistics are now based on India to give the carriers time to dodge missiles.
This also makes it a mistake for Russia to supply oil to India, it will go towards US logistics out of India.
Larry Johnson says it will take three weeks for them to be ready to deploy.
Tom Stone
This War has already been won and Trump is planning his triumphant ticker tape parade through downtown Caracas, or maybe Jerusalem or maybe Tehran or Moscow, one of those places…..
And building his Triumphant Arch is back on schedule now that McDonald’s has been given a no bid cost plus contract to build it, they have a lot of experience in building Golden Arches.
So much winning it’s unbelievable!
JonnyJames
Hooray! How much will tickets cost to attend the ceremonies? Payable personally to the glorious emperor himself of course. Maybe Ellison, Singer, Adelson et al. can chip in as well.
JohnH
Iran reported that U$S Abraham Lincoln was driven away from the Iranian coast…or maybe it’s just coming back to San Diego for Trump’s very own “mission accomplished” moment!
Old Jake
Every time someone mentions that arch I have visions of Spinal Tap.
Donald
I can’t read it since I don’t subscribe and didn’t bother getting a free account, but the WSJ says that Iran’s underground missile bases are turning out to be a mistake— supposedly the Americans and Israelis hover around and pick them off as they come outside to shoot. I saw this at the Lawyersgunsmoney blog. They hate this war as much as we do ( I won’t get into their other views) but on the military side of things they tend to believe the mainstream Western narrative. One of their bloggers is a professor in something or other but it amounts to military history or national security or whatnot.
I have no idea myself— with both this war and Ukraine I tend to think the truth lies somewhere in- between the mainstream press and the alternative press when it comes to these purely military matters. That is, it makes sense to me that both sides in most wars do boneheaded things, many things don’t go anccording to plan and the winner is the side which can absorb the consequences best.
This is “Russia is running out of missles” level propaganda
1. The bunkers are so deeply in the mountains that they can’t be taken out even with bunker busters. And we have not gotten bunker busters in.
2. Wilkerson has gone through that we can’t hit targets precisely at standoff range which is where we are firing from
3. The entrances are indistinguishable from the terrain, covered with dirt or sand.
4. There is one video of one supposedly being hit with a big kaboom. No evidence of what it was. Iran friendlies have said it was a decoy, which would be a lot of stuff wasted for show. Could have been fuel storage. No proof it was a bunker.
ilsm
What are “we” seeing the launchers with?
Satellites talking to the fighter or to AWACS (satcom receiver/processor too big for fighter aircraft)? Then how fast, discrete, accurate the targeting to weapon?
Drones carrying either AESA radar or electro-optic packages that weigh hundreds of pounds and drone comms a problems…. Flying airborne repeater network. Pretty heavy for MQ 9. Imply Global Hawk/Triton drone. Has to be line of sight.
How accurate, timely, enough bang in stand off missile to matter?
I think hunting SCUDs is a low yield asset heavy enterprise.
JohnH
Ritter said that Schwarzkopf claimed that Iraq had only 19 missile launchers. Ritter later noticed that the military had claimed that 164 had been taken out. He was in a position to investigate, so he did. After a night’s work he determined that what had been taken out was fuel tankers…no launchers taken out. Ritter said he then got fired for his efforts!
[I expect to have gotten the exact numbers wrong, but you get the gist of it.]
Ritter said this is SOP for battle damage assessments.
A Youtube video by Patarames claims the missile cities can take several nuclear blasts and they have equipment inside to create new openings for the missiles.
They are based on the original design by US nuclear forces, deemed too expensive at the time.
Mikel
“That is, it makes sense to me that both sides in most wars do boneheaded things…”
Yes, indeed.
XXYY
Several owners also said that insurance, which the industry says is available, remains secondary to the safety of their crews.
I was glad to read this, though it may or may not be sincere. In any case, insurance only helps after the insured article has been destroyed. So it doesn’t seem like a cure-all for anything, or a reason to take risky behaviors like transiting the strait of Hormuz during wartime. I’ve been surprised how much emphasis has been placed in the information system on whether or not insurance is available. Seems very callous.
On another subject, it’s my understanding that many of the things that are being shut down as a result of the strait of Hormuz closure cannot just be started up again at the flick of a switch. Oil fields, pipelines, and refineries apparently can take weeks or months to restart regardless of how long they have been shut down. So in many ways the duration of the seaway closure is no longer material to the extent of the disruption. I would like to hear more about this and understand it better.
xander
and also, how feasible would it be to quickly build additional storage facilities for oil and LNG? The images of chinese hospitals being built during the pandemic spring to mind. I would guess you would want to get that started too
chuck roast
Being a captain of even a small craft is a serious responsibility. Before you sail: are there enough enough life vests and floatation devices; what are the weather conditions for the duration of the sail; are the waters treacherous; do my passengers know anything about their responsibilities on the water?
Being the Cappy of an ocean going vessel magnifies your responsibilities a thousand times, and for most captains alive today, navigating war-torn waters is a peril that was never on their safety check-list. Worst off are the helmsmen stuck in the Persian Gulf with loaded vessels. Whatever their cargo it is becoming more valuable by the day…valuable somewhere beyond the Straights of Hormuz.
Dozens if not scores of ship owners have their eyes glazing over at the fabulous surplus to made off just one shipment. They don’t want to lose their ship. They don’t want to lose this cash. Will any kind of insurance due? How do I possibly calculate opportunity costs in wartime? I’m losing money everyday. Is time a bigger enemy than the Iranians?
Make the right move and it’s a potential bonanza. Make the wrong move and everybody sleeps with Davy Jones.
Another nail in the coffin of empire … when your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt … but do record for posterity.
rowlf
The image is of Atlanta Hartsfield airport, ATL.
John k
Guessing oil prices on assumption strait remains closed:
(Inflation adjusted to today)
June 2008 avg was 208/b, yo-yo-ing down to nearly 80 then back to 100,, then rising gradually to 120 over a few years – maybe responding to inflation? – before falling back to 60-70, maybe responding to new supply.
So seems market could maintain 120 back then for a few years.
But imo the bottom 50% is closer to the edge today and would step away sooner.
Otoh, 20 mb/day is a huge cut, and excess capacity, reportedly in saudi and emirates, is locked behind the straits. Perhaps higher incomes will have to step aside. 150?
Otoh, Russia maybe has excess? But are they ready to sell to eu without eu surrender?
Imo we will see new monthly records pretty soon if us doesn’t pry it open.
Also, us navy not much use if other side has decent missiles/drones, and that stuff getting bette/cheaper. Saudi and many others (in americas?) maybe taking notes.
alrhundi
Hyperliquid (crypto exchange) USOIL-USDH oil futures are at $116.45 per barrel currently. Tomorrow will be interesting to watch price action.
Israeli defense officials are outlining a scenario in which Iran’s regime does not immediately fall during the ongoing conflict, but instead undergoes a gradual collapse afterward, Channel 12 reports.
According to the report, the scenario – referred to in internal discussions as a “slow collapse” – envisions the US-Israeli war with Iran ending with the current regime still in place but significantly weakened. That would be followed by a gradual erosion of its stability.
Also there is a lot more public movement on the international deescalation front that is breaking through, see these other headlines from ToI:
– Qatari PM says he will seek de-escalation with Iran, in Sky News interview
– Iranian President Pezeshkian pledges investigation of drone incident to Azerbaijan leader
– Russian, UAE foreign ministers seek end to attacks on Iran, Gulf states — Russian ministry
– Trump speaks with UAE president, Emirati state media says
– Report: Witkoff, Kushner coming to Israel as US irked over scope of strikes on Iran’s oil depots
Ben Panga
Reality slowly dawning on a lot of people?
mrsyk
Interesting. Diplomacy in play. Not fair!
DGE
Funnily, “slow collapse” is exactly what people say will happen to Israel before long, if it keeps on this path. Which, given the widespread support of genocide by its population (minus the Palestinian minority), seems all but certain.
Oil prices surged on Sunday evening, briefly topping $110 a barrel soon after markets opened, in a sign of growing concern that the war in the Middle East will continue to take a toll on energy supplies.
It was the first time in almost four years that the global oil benchmark, known as Brent, cost more than $100 a barrel.
Stock futures, which give traders the chance to bet on the market before exchanges open on Monday morning, fell on Sunday evening. Futures on the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all fell roughly 1.5 percent.
Trump is gonna be toast.
Ann
Scoop: U.S. dismayed by Israel’s Iran fuel strikes, sources say
I’m back. Had to drive into town today and panic-buy at Costco. All set now.
Acacia
“Good cop dismayed by bad cop’s disregard for law, sources say.” 🤡
JG
Yup, I drove today, topped off the “beater” after leaving the nursing home. Used gas buddy; here in the rural outback, SW, Ore-gone, PNW; USA. Living at the South END of the State for petroleum deliveries…Just, what 4.19/gallon…Riding the e-bike 15+ miles 2/3 times a week, for provisions is the new normal as I push into my 7th decade. All the best.
ChrisRUEcon
Hey! That’s Our Oil!
Ann
Syria’s Kurds caution Iran’s Kurds against aligning with US against Tehran
Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!President DJT
—-
The “send in special forces to secure the Uranium” idea must look awfully appealing right now. Idiotic, unfeasible, madness (I think), but appealing nonetheless. It would (if it wasn’t impossible) give Trump an off-ramp.
The Rev Kev
Do they even know where it is? I doubt it or they would have bombed it already.
Ben Panga
Agreed. Trump is an idiot, surrounded by idiots though.
Consider a hypothetical order of events:
1. Trump: we gotta get the Uranium, get me some intelligence
2. (a bit later) aides: We’re not really sure, but there’s a rumour it’s in Xxx, hidden in a flock of wild geese. We have low confidence in this.
3. Trump: Petey, can your guys get in/out of the wild goose area?
4. Hegseth: yessir, we can do anything, we have God on our side
5. Caine: Sir, I’m not sure…
6. Trump: Dan, you’re always being such a p*ssy! You should be more like Petey.
7. Trump: Send in the handsome men!!
Acacia
I just mentioned this to a friend. His reply:
I can’t help but think of the little Biden stickers I saw on gas pumps after COVID.
Pointing at the price and saying “I did that!” with a smile.
Sounds like DJT is doubling down, though tomorrow he may forget everything he said today.
raspberry jam
vix is up to 29.49 too as I type this
upstater
Crude is at $107 on Reuters. Filled my tank in Central NYS Wednesday morning for $3.09, 2 hous later it was $3.19, then $3.39 Friday. Gonna be $4 this week. The owners of monster pickups with huge tires are gonna be upset. $5 will be a watershed event.
ChrisRUEcon
$3.49 just outside Chicago …filled up today.
skippy
Good information.
Ted Postol: Fraud of Missile Defence Exposed in Iran War – Glenn Diesen
Yes, that was useful. TL:DR countermeasures such as maneuverable boost stage, passive and active decoys, etc, make it very difficult to intercept missiles. Prof Postol has been arguing this for decades and expresses exasperation that the warnings have not been heeded.
There was also an interesting segment on use of low-cost off-shelf technology to convert long-range drones into FPV-style remotely piloted munitions, which would allow terminal guidance. (Not mentioned, IIRC, but one would think this would be bad news for naval vessels within range of Iranian drones. Postol did not assert that Iranian drones are currently using human terminal guidance by this means, but simply that it would not be difficult to do this at low cost)
skippy
I would add that Postol says it takes around 12+ videos of attempted intercepts to find one actual intercept e.g. just seeing one mid air explosion does not denote an intercept = small explosion vs a large explosion for a successful intercept. Plus how THAAD et al is basically useless due to flight time and missiles with maneuver ability is long gone by the time they arrive. Basically the probability algos barf ….
Michaelmas
That from Postol was solid. Thank you.
So we now know with certainty that Iran has effective use of real-time data from both the Chinese and Russian satellite and radar observation/targeting networks — and Postol’s point about how relatively simple, cheap weapons like drones can become capable of unprecedented targeting specificity because of that is correct — and we also have increasingly certain knowledge that the Iranians have successfully targeted and blinded 4-5 of the main US radar installations, as forex —
Iranian Strikes Have Destroyed $2.7 Billion Worth of High Value U.S. Anti-Missile Radars https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iranian-strikes-destroyed-antimissile-radars
Footage Confirms Iranian Drone Strike Took Out U.S. Army’s Most High Value Air Defence Radar From THAAD System https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iranian-drone-destroy-radar-thaad
So this is is a situation where Iran has nearly complete and instant battlespace oversight whereas the US-Israel in many areas have only a minute’s warning when something is incoming, which means in turn that Iran has the capability to fairly reliably destroy any replacement installations the U.S. brings in and attempts to set up. All through history, that’s already a losing proposition. But then add to that, this…
“Reports from multiple Western sources confirmed on March 5 that the United States Army has expended over 800 anti-ballistic missiles from MIM-104 Patriot long range air defence systems during just five days of hostilities with Iran … This exceeds the total estimated number of Patriot interceptors launched throughout the entire Russian-Ukrainian War….”
AG
Appreciate the collection.
.Tom
technological disparity
Some time recently I heard Michael Hudson relating something like a parable, the parable of the fancy wine. I won’t be able to find it to quote it properly but the gist was…
A rich man wants to impress his guests so he buys some expensive old French wine. At the event they open it up, pour it and taste it and Yuck, it’s no good, the wine has gone bad. The host consults his supplier to complain and is told this is not wine for drinking, it is wine for investing.
And so it is when allies buy American weapons. The aren’t supposed to be used, their purpose is dollar recycling and showing off.
Revenant
Here is 45-odd minutes of footage of Israeli war damage, compiled by Electronic Intifada. HT to Craig Murray via Richard Medhurst.
I have only skipped through it so far but it is good to have a summary in one place, to see how badly things are going for the Axis of Epstein.
skippy
Pairs well with the Postal link above, calls Bibi a homicidal maniac, points out how useless western sams are and why, how DOD was made aware of the potential and how it would change everything in a conflict. With the worst on offer if things continue.
Ben Panga
More “war could be coming to an end soon” signals?
Further to raspberry jam’s comment above showing Israel moving the goalposts for what victory looks like.
If they are believed, the IRGC brought out the bigger guns last night. Several stories about damage/impacts in Israel in TOI.
US President Donald Trump told The Times of Israel on Sunday that a decision on when to end the war with Iran will be a “mutual” one that he’ll make together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump also asserted in the brief telephone interview that the Islamic Republic would have destroyed Israel if he and Netanyahu had not been around. “Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it… We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel.”
The US president was asked whether he alone would decide when the war with Iran ends or if Netanyahu would also have a say.
“I think it’s mutual… a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account,” he responded, indicating that while Netanyahu will have input, the US president will have the final say.
Asked whether Israel could continue the war against Iran even after the US decides to halt its strikes, Trump declined to entertain the theoretical possibility before adding: “I don’t think it’s going to be necessary.”
—-
64 million shekel question: If US/Israel just declare victory and the war over, what will Iran do?
urdsama
Keep fighting.
Until the US is out of the Middle East ands Israel is defanged, anything less will just lead to a repeat of this war. Neither the US or Israel can be trusted.
John k
Maybe reduce attacks? But I’ve read that after trump stopped fighting on the 12 -day event last June the guard wanted to continue but ayatollah said stop. But harder people likely in charge now.
Even if they stop that doesn’t necessarily open Hormuz. Maybe need sanctions ended, noting if theyre reimposed the strait closes again.
Socal Rhino
Their foreign minister stated it clearly in his interview on US Sunday morning television: There is presently no basis for a cease fire. They went along last time, negotiated in good faith and were again attacked. This time is different.
My take: when they think Israel and the US have sufficiently suffered Iran will be willing to discuss its terms. Maybe when we have stopped saying things like Iran launched a surprise attack on their own school. When we appear credible. Might help if a few of the biggest war mongers had decided to spend more time with their families.
Ben Panga
Especially as their new Supreme Leader saw what happened last time they tried to be reasonable:
The negotiating partners murdered his father, and several other members of his family, including women and a tiny little girl.
I wouldn’t be in a compromising state of mind after that.
Acacia
When we appear credible.
Touché. Very dry.
Ben Panga
Above my paygrade to parse either the veracity or implications but, seems like a bad idea:
The Treasury reportedly plans to short oil futures next week to drive down energy prices. If oil infrastructure in the ME is badly damaged, Gulf States shut in production & the Strait remains closed, prices will blow through their shorts, potentially causing losses of taxpayer $!
—
Brent Crude skyrocketing. $118.5 at time of posting.
ThirtyOne
prices will blow through their shorts
now there’s a mental picture.
Shorting does not lower prices. The short providing bearish analysis lowers prices.
A short is a commitment to buy, albeit later. Prices rising leads to short covering, amplifying the price increase.
Brian Beijer
As someone who has no idea how markets work, other than a deep suspicion that everything is rigged, can you explain how, on the futures market, the price of oil has dropped from $118 a barrel on Sunday to $101 as of 11:50 Monday morning (EU time)? Is it because of Bessent’s short? How has it been successful? Does it go back to my ignorant belief that everything is rigged? In other words, Bessent may be an idiot, but it doesn’t really matter if it’s his fingers on the buttons. Genuinely asking how oil futures are falling despite there being no logic behind it.
By the way, I’m noticing a similar pattern in the Dow futures this morning. The market will be consistently down 700 pts. for a couple of hours, then within a matter of 2-3 minutes, the downturn will be cut in half to only -350 pts. In the few minutes it’s taken me to write this comment, futures went from -600 pts to -500 pts. It seems like there’s a mysterious buyer seriously determined to prop up the market. I don’t know if these two things are related, but they both seem to be defying the expectations of a “rational” market. Maybe I’ve been wearing my tinfoil hat too long…
No, the reason is in the headline, the expectation of a strategic reserves release. Buy on rumor, sell on fact.
A short operationally NEVER lowers prices. This is bullshit presented by stock touts. A short forces a later securities purchase.
The mechanism by which shorting theoretically lowers prices is the information content: the information shorts publicize in connection with their action (see Lehman as a prime example) and some investors may see the conviction of the shorts in going short (very risky, you are exposed to unlimited losses) as reason to stop buying the security and maybe even sell.
Balakirev
On a slightly less serious note–
You know, if Trump is required to go to Iran and approve the Assembly of Experts’ choice of Supreme Leader, we would do well to not let him back into USia. In fact, instead of requiring the Iranians to declare their complete surrender, we might just want to require giving Trump Iranian citizenship. That alone should lead to their eventual (1 day – 1 week) defeat.
I’m only afraid we would have to accept either Vance or Harris as our next, well, Ayatollah.
WillD
It must take a special kind of Kool-aid to keep up the high levels of delusion, derangement and belligerence that the US & its Israeli overlords maintain – in the face of overwhelming evidence that refutes their claims.
How do they maintain such high levels?
My guess is a combination of real madness, religious fervour, ideological fervour, genuine ignorance, willful ignorance [head in sand], and other major psychological & emotional conditions. And, of course, the usual supply of alcohol and drugs, and perhaps other ‘recreational’ [Epstein-type] pursuits!
I hope someone suitably qualified is doing a careful study of this behaviour, and will publish their findings in due course. If they are, then I hope also that they can create a framework of tests and examinations that ALL elected representatives must pass in order to take office.
The survival of the western world depends on it!
Acacia
Don’t forget the stratospheric levels of arrogance and self-importance at being the chosenites slash “stable genius”.
Alan Sutton
George Galloway says the King of Bahrain has fled and that Bahrain is about to become an Islamic Republic.
We had only a few additions, so the post is now complete.
Take it back, we just added one more tidbit, a video from Hindustan Times discussing Iranian damage to Israel oil infrastructure. But now really done, any update from now on will come in comments.
I think these two postings also provide some additional context:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-us-and-israel-want-to-depopulate
https://indi.ca/iran-war-6-7/
Indi shows quite a handful of tweets from inside Israel, translated into English.
Very helpful links, thank you.
Thank you!
Thanks a lot Yves. Excellent job you are doing with this!
Thank you Yves for providing a space to talk about this with other people who are paying attention. Along with everything else. Almost nineteen years now being my daily read. It occurs to me that I could wake tomorrow to a 404 notice instead. Let’s hope not!
FACTS
LONG MAY NC REIGN SUPREME
On insurance for passage of the Straits of Hormuz, the US announced a $20bn reinsurance programme run by the Development Finance Corporation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/trump-reinsurance-oil-iran-war.html
But there is no there there, as Yves would say. The programme is “under development”. The FT has a longer article on the market scepticism of this press release:
https://www.ft.com/content/d1d68d91-0d2c-4682-9204-01320a9320d4
And fundamentally, the carriers will not sail that route if they think they will lose a hull, even if insured, because (1) if the straits remain closed and their ship is sunk, they would have to go to court to get paid in the distant future and the payout would not cover the rebuild costs and the lost income of not having a hull would be high whereas (2) if the straits reopen in a few weeks, the losses are low so why, in retrospect, take the risk? There is no scenario here in which carrier decisions are dominated by US actions / announcements, only Iranian ones.
NB: the decision above is dressed up by carriers as concern for their crews but pull the other one!
That’s my thinking as well; even if you’re compensated, you’ve lost a ship. These must be highly specialized and expensive to replace, with long lead times. Wouldn’t it be better to be making money with that hull somewhere that it won’t get sunk?
There are also ships currently “trapped” in the gulf who are laden with $60 oil, which getting more valuable by the day. Isn’t that what contango is? The ships are full of oil more valuble than the futures it was purchased under. This is like wiki level explanation, others can improve it, but the fact remains, don’t get your cheap oil blown up when it’s twice as valuable. Capitalists retain their god given right to profit.
Thank you Revenant. This, the insurance scheme, is one of the pieces indicating improvisation to find a solution for a problem everyone, including the incumbents, knew was very likely to occur. The Iranians had indeed announced it! Aurelien (please forgive me this) would “say” welcome to the days when missiles are readily available to countries like Iran! The incumbents also knew this! So, why the hell these criminal idiots started something for which they didn’t have a solution ready?
Today it is remarkable a shift at El Pais which is now condemning the attack by the US and Israel, Trump & Netanyahoo, in a more severe and formal way than before. They say this war marks the end of the rules based order and now everything is endangered. Including here the EU as stated in a op-ed (Spanish). Yes, for the first time I read about the danger of EU disintegration and here it says that some countries “did a bad political reading of the conflict” (here Germany and France at least are the culprits). Here the op-ed author refers to a paper titled “Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran” authored by a couple from the European Council of Foreign Relations. So, may be something starts to move within sclerotic Europe.
With regards to the UK i would, for once, say something good about Starmer’s stance! Of course Blair is 100% with Trump. Just in case nobody had notice the bag of s#it this man has turned to be on ageing. Not that The Blair was any good before but…
The laxative is starting to work, but a lot has to move before Europe can cure its cranial rectal inversion.
I have noticed the same in terms of the global narrative starting to shift. There’s been an increase in commentary based on legality under international law, more parties willing to come out and say openly that the US should be operating under UN auspices, and so on.
I think they are starting to see it’s all likely to take a very bad turn, and since Trump has not been shy about taking ownership of all of this, they want to make sure any blame is pinned squarely on him.
Because the Epstein Class is behind all this.
Discredit the US Government.
Get them involved with Iran and have them and Israel fail while killing all the poor people on both sides.
Take over the economy with their Palantir and TechnoFeudal companies.
We know why all this is happening. The Epstein Devils are murderous, warmongering FUCKS who need to be dealt with once and for all.
THE PARTYS OVER
Run by Leon Black’s kid too!
This is absolutely the Epstein administration.
The US should take Kharg Island, said General Keith Kellogg, which is within artillery range from the hills of Iran’s shoreline. One would think General Kellogg would know that when the British occupied Boston during the revolution, General Washington pulled some cannons up a nearby hill and pummeled the Brits until the survivors evacuated Boston. The Americans on Kharg would experience a similar fate.
How do you say, “Snake Island” in Farsi?
Zmeyi Ostrov?
I am also reminded of Gallipoli, where minefields and shore artillery ended the naval approach.
Anzio, minus Allued battleships providing fire support of last resort? (without naval gunfire, Tigers would probably have broken free.)
In WW2 Churchil had a mad idea of sending a fleet into the Baltic to cut off Scandinavian trade to Germany. This was at the dn fo 39/40. THhe First Sea lor, Admiral Pound, played along while dragging his heels until the plan was dropped. He knew it would be suicide.
Churchill was the “genius” behind Gallipoli and Dieppe, eh?
Dien Bien Phu, Sarajevo, etc.
Oil tops $95 on blockchain and hyperliquid weekend trading:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4562095-oil-tops-95-on-hyperliquid-contracts-1-in-4-chance-of-150
It’s only my 2 cents but I think markets are going to checkmate Taco this week. The futures markets open around 6:30 PM EST, which is now 10 and a half hours from now.
If the Dow and Nasdaq take another pounding this week, I predict he’ll Taco. We don’t know what form that takes – it will certainly be accompanied by grandiose rhetoric on how “we won!” along with statements lacking evidence, such as Iran’s military capabilities are completely destroyed.
What “chicken out” scenario acceptable to Iran (as a condition for their own de-escalation) would be within the envelope of things that DJT would consider politically feasible?
Not asking a rhetorical question; I’m genuinely curious, wanting this crisis to end.
Yeah, that’s the big difference between this war and his stupid tariffs. You can’t simply change your mind after a week and wave a war out of existence because you decided it was no longer a good idea.
And maybe that will make things worse. Might the think the markets don’t like this so we best end it quickly. Lets drop sole nukes to do that.
To belabour the obvious, I think we can all see what’s in store in days to come. Israel has but to feel itself on the back foot, not to say in mortal peril (as from an attack – whether initiated or launched as reprisal – on its desalination facilities) and it will not scruple to drop a tactical nuclear device somewhere within Iran with or without an American imprimatur.
As to what follows, who can say? Of this everybody the world over is terrified, I think it true to say.
“You can’t simply….”
Rational persons, no, but Trump can….and has….the 12 day War.
I sure hope he does decide that, but as we all know here, Iran bats last.
This. We could see a “market-driven Taco” this week, but Iran is in the driver’s seat now.
As Yves has pointed out:
1. TACO won’t stop Israel, who want Iran finished, and who don’t honour ceasefires etc anyway
2. Iran needs to get the situation to a position where it can’t be restarted by Israel and US
I hadn’t considered that Israel may be in charge here. I want to say Trump still has agency, but if there is some Epstein blackmail material being held in reserve, I could be wrong. Or if he is simply too far gone mentally to push back in any material way.
Trump has no agency here. He is Darth Vader with the American Death Star to Emperor Bibi. His political survival is completely dependent on Israel, even if it leads to his political demise. They can’t provide a rationale for the war because they had no rationale, they were only obeying orders.
US forcibly and credibly denuclearizes and denazifies Israel. (ie, na ga happen.)
And stops sending arms; much of the tonnage is coming over from the US. Is Trump going to tell State to stop approving weapons shipments to Israel as the latter continues to bomb Iran even without the US? Will the US stand down any remaining interceptor platforms?
Trump can’t climbdown from this, even if he wants to.
To quote LotR, Gandalf, in Return of the King, ominously
You’re right, but he’s already testing out the we won rhetoric. The point being that he thinks he has an escape hatch.
‘Omission Accomplished’
Maybe this is the week Trumpo gets jettisoned? With the mid-terms approaching, I can’t believe there aren’t backroom discussions going on about how to get rid of him. People have surely learned that they kept Genocide Joe in so long that they completely screwed the pooch for the Ds getting elected.
Like an old boss of mine says (and I agree entirely) if you start thinking you need to fire someone, start doing it – you only ever regret keeping someone in position for too long, not to little…
Our politicians could have voiced their displeasure over a war Benedict Donald started, but remained as quiet as church mice when push>met<shove.
They're content to go down with the ship~
“End the pain or you’ll have pain without end” as my chairman used to say.
“Chicken out” is probably the wrong framing, as others pointed out.
Qatar is now saying oil goes to $150 within days, not weeks:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4562067-war-will-force-gulf-producers-to-stop-energy-exports-within-days-qatar-energy-minister-says
If that happens, you can kiss Mr. Market goodbye. The S&P’s feeble rally attempts will get strangled in the crib. By summer, we’re likely to see a 20% fall in stocks, which indicates a bear market, just in time for the midterm campaigns.
At that point, it will no longer be politically feasible for Trump to continue the war. Some sort of face-saving exit will need to occur.
Isn’t this more the TOFU* version of Benedict Donald?
* Trump Often Family-Blogs Up
Good morning. Glad there’s a vegan option, making America healthy again and all that.
I imagine Trump would like to TACO, but like the rest of us he’s condemned to learning the hard way.
One common theme on AoR(Axis of Resistance) channels is that it is Iran that is dictating the pace. Any former basketball coach will agree that that this wins games.
If this war was to last a fortnight, why then this would be half-time, lets go get some quotes from the locker room…
‘The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender’
‘Sometimes it’s not how good you are, but how bad you want it’
‘Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off the goal’
Heh heh, a distinct and familiar looking lack of Xs and Os.
“Often” seems too generous
Trump Obviously F-ed Up?
I think the established meaning is “Trump Only F**** Up”.
There is also TAPAS for “Trump Always Pouts And Submits”.
I hope you are correct, however, it seems doubling down may be what happens. We hear too many rumors of ground troops and their movements.
First comes hubris, then insanity (where were are now?), then nemesis, then destruction.
What about the opposite? The people “in the know” in this war on all sides have access to oil future markets. They are also capable of ordering strikes and other actions that drive the prices higher. So what is to stop them from making guaranteed money. I get that other people are can plead them to stop, but they personally will be just fine. Am I missing something that would stop them from doing that in either Israel, US, or Iran?
if you forgive me for refining – He will try to TACO. Unless he is willing to leave the Middle East forever. The US killed the pope on Lent – equivalent.
The problem with this is that Iran, not the US, decides when Iran stops shooting. The idiots in DC can declare victory but Iran doesn’t have to stop firing.
Given that both Isr and US are not capable of negotiation or agreement, there’s no tactical, operational, or strategic reason for Iran to stop the war even (especially?) if both US and Isr declare victory.
I’m dumbfounded as to how people don’t understand this concept. I believe that the commentariat here understand this but outside of here the lack of critical thinking is painful to see.
If Trump does a taco, I fear Israel will use a nuke.
If Israel uses a nuke, that will end Israel.
I think that Israel “ended” when Rabin was assassinated.
Since then, we have been “blessed” with the State of Zion.
Stay safe.
Met with Rapturous applause by “Christians” around the world.
re. “getting” the enriched uranium.
No one in DC has read about, remembers “Desert One”? DC has reached terminal retard, brain-rot levels….in part cuz using the word “retard” to call-out retards hurt people’s feelings, lol
I prefer the term, “Low functioning simpletons steeped in ignorance”. Much more precise and less offensive than, “retard”, IMHO. Trump, of course, is as mad as a f*cking hatter and should be whisked offstage in a straightjacket or coffin.
I watched the Hindustan Times video referencing the Haifa refinery strike. The video claiming it is the Haifa refinery has a notice that it is unverified. The refinery is near the kiryat yam beach. Here is a live web cam (currently on and updating). No smoke so if it was hit it wasn’t severe.
There is something else near the refinery of interest to the Iran targeting if they are serious: Rafael.
The Israelis censor all reports but allow live webcams?
And surely if it hasn’t been hit then the correct assessment is hasn’t been hit yet.
suppose they could just put the camera on a loop to fool –
Good sleuthing RJ.
Rafael (The weapons manufacturer) HQ to Haifa Oil refinery is <10km according to Google maps
Fwiw there was video of (supposedly) something smoking at Haifa Oil refinery, but it doesn’t look like much
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/30085
Yeah I don’t doubt it was hit, it was hit last summer. I just think if they had landed a serious hit it wouldn’t be able to be hidden.
Rafael HQ is in range of the Lebanon rockets and the fact that it has lasted to now without a clear strike through multiple conflicts is part of their marketing. It is to be assumed they have a lot of AD around it
What might this tell us about the accuracy of Iranian targeting? Postol has said that an improvement in their missile guidance systems could make the outcome materially different than in June.
The Haifa refinery is surely important to disable. Are Iranian missiles so inaccurate that they have been unable to damage it significantly? Or are other sites, like military bases, more important to target?
Iranian missiles can in no way be considered inaccurate. I refer you to the Wikipedia entry for the 2020 missile attack on the al-Asad Airbase, aka Operation Martyr Soleimani, in which ballistic missiles hit specific buildings on the base. The embedded video is worth watching if you have not seen it before.
From memory, Andrei Martyanov commented at the time that one missile was targeted at the geometric centre of the main runway to make it clear to the US that Iran had the both the ISR capability and a small enough CEP to hit whatever targets they wished. I am quite sure there will have been improvements in both capabilities in the years since that attack.
The question of the damage sustained (or not) by the Haifa refinery is not one of accuracy, but rather one of intent.
The scroll at Al Mayadeen is currently reporting that Iran will be increasing its drone attacks by 20% and its missile attacks by 100%, including the use of new generation missiles for the first time -https://english.almayadeen.net/
According to Trita Parsi (x.com) Pezeshkian’s statement was a response to Gulf states proposal for de-escalation. If so, I can assume that the perceived “lull” in strikes was also related to that.
Meanwhile, IRGC representative said that after the 12 day war Iran quadrupled it’s missile production. Of course there are no reliable figures as to from what to what, but at some point Israeli intelligence estimate was 100 missiles per month.
What if we could only build a handful of B-17’s and Sherman tanks a month by hand in 1944?
That’s how it feels with our mega million $ missiles…
I have long ago concluded that most of our much-vaunted “high-tech” military hardware actually exists as a sink to get us to spend as much money and resources as possible building and maintaining these pieces of equipment in order to provide lucrative business for private military contractors rather than for any practical usage in actual warfare which is why the US military isn’t as powerful as it likes to pretend to be because of how bloated it has become.
This is much like how money and resources are deliberately wasted in building and then subsequently dismantling the “floating fortresses” in Nineteen Eighty-Four to keep the proles deliberately impoverished.
I’m actually amazed there isn’t much more discussion about the fact that Russia and China spend much much less and are getting much much more from their version of the MIC. I keep hearing American MIC “makes stuff by hand” and I really don’t think the level of automation in Russia or a place like Iran is better than America. (China no doubt could have better automation if it’s required.)
What those countires don’t have is American CEOs and MBAs that are singularly focused on maximal profit rather than being innovative and productive (or quite frankly at this point even appearing to be patriotic if you ask me). All the contracting I dealt with in the USN were fixed price contracts, not cost plus, and the DCAA typically had representatives on location in the factories monitoring our contracts. I’ve been out of the service too long now to get a good sense of what’s happen but I don’t think jumping the DOW budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion is a sign of progress, more like a disaster in progress. Those CEOs and MBAs have the MIC on a “handbag boutique” industry model just so Western governments can spend hundreds of billions to display the latest high tech system of one that gets taken out by a low cost drone. And don’t even get me started on being totally reliant on critical materials from other countries – there were Federal laws (in addition to [family blogging] common sense) stopping that when I was in service.
Agree with your analysis, and I believe there have been a couple of articles here at NC that explored this.
Because Markets.
When you let your politics become a market, it’s only a few minutes until politics optimizes for profits.
Happened here shortly after the second Iraq war, American might has been pure Madison Avenue since then. Our few boutique weapons are plenty deadly if you’re on the receiving end of one of the few, and this, until now has been the basis of our power.
‘RT
@RT_com
New Supreme Leader has been OFFICIALLY CHOSEN — senior Iran cleric Ayatollah Alamolhoda
Announcement now ‘rests entirely with Secretariat of Assembly of Experts’’
You can guarantee that Trump has already given the orders to find and kill him because, you know, it worked out so well the first time. And Trump will not stop until he gets to choose Iran’s next Supreme leader, even if the guy is a Christian.
Tony Blair is probably campaigning for the job already!
If Iranian ayatollahs like trolling (and from what we’ve seen, they just might!) they’d have elected Trump, conditionsl on him coming to Tehran and officially and publicly converting to Shi’ism.
I don’t know where RT got this from, but it seems the actual new Supreme Leader is Khamenei’s son.
This from Iranian channels:
just realized. pretty telling that the DC Dem. mobilization machine has no problem trotting out the lame “No Kings” protests.
But an anti-war protest? that’s not an official marching order, and the dopamine-addled, virtue-signalling cat herds don’t have the brain cells to mobilize themselves….unlike that one brave Commentariat person who literally stood on a street corner, by themself with their one sign
We had a protest downtown here yesterday, though turnout was muted thanks to a couple of lines of bad thunderstorms. I’m sure it would have been small anyway. There was one in Dayton as well; there isn’t much press interest as you might expect but the Jewish News Syndicate is keeping tabs (they’re called “pro-regime protests”).
They’re sponsored by ANSWER and the DSA as usual and if they attract some of the Trump-betrayed-us MTG types there might be some useful conversations.
It’s odd. There’s less support for this war than any I can ever remember…but there’s also less visible opposition.
My wife and I were just discussing the lack of protests. Team blue’s financial conflict of interest was where we landed. They got AIPAC on their minds.
If I had the ambition, I could likely walk down the street and see some No Kings protestors on the sidewalk right now. If I walked by two hours from now, they’d all be gone since the “protest” appears to have start and stop times designated by the Democrat party which the protestors dutifully follow.
How long did it take for Democrats to impeach Trump after a mid-level riot had them cowering in closets? But murder hundreds of Venezuelans with airstrikes, kidnap their president, assassinate the leader of Iran while starting WW3? Well, maybe they could try to pass a procedural vote after the war is already started, no impeachment needed. Move it along people nothing to see here! Democrats are Officer Barbrady when what we need is Judge Dredd.
It seems “our Democracy” is working just swell for liberal Democrats, protestations aside.
The Democrat Party is incapable of rising to any moment in time; if Trump really does cancel the midterms, expect nothing more than sternly worded letters from the Democrat Party.
In Paris yesterday there were competing pro and anti-war protesters – there is an Iranian exile community here, mostly upper caste; they were out there supporting the return of the monarchy. Just some news from the ground.
At the Iranian market where I shop, they usually have a “Free Iran” banner out front. Since the start of the war, it is no longer on display. I wonder if there’s a split amongst the exiles. Maybe there’s a limit as to how much they’d like to the Revolutionary gov’t removed. 180+ children will do that.
I’ve been doing that. Be out tomorrow again.
The “ANSWER” coalition had a SAY NO TO IRAN WAR protest yesterday.
The local PSL people invited me.
I encouraged them to start throwing Anti Epstein Rallies and to demand a new popular united front.
I also told them not to be led by the liberals in DSA and Indivisible.
The nice young lady from New Orleans agreed with everything I said but time is ticking away and squandering uniting the populist left in New Orleans with the Populist Right in the suburbs and ex urbs encircling it N, S, E, and W.
“US high end weapons are so expensive because they are significantly hand-assembled”
I am still amazed by the fact that in the past three decades the USA and increasingly Europe have been backsliding:
1) From industry: large-scale mass production following standardized, mechanized processes, respecting tight tolerances, and optimized for cost control.
2) Towards manufacture: fabrication of single items (e.g. those super-duper radars that Iran just blew up) or small series (e.g. THAAD system, French self-propelled howitzer Caesar), with customization and variations often rendering instances of the same model incompatible with each other (e.g. F-35 “blocks”), hand-crafted by highly specialized personnel without regard to cost.
Back to the 18th century.
On the other hand, the Russians (artillery shells, missiles of all kinds, armoured vehicles) and Iranians (drones, ballistic missiles) seem to remain firm proponents of the 20th century industrial approach.
As for the developments and the ideas about the US Navy forcing the Hormuz strait, marines occupying the Kargh island, or special forces elbowing their way towards the Iranian stash of enriched uranium: I am wondering what role will the increasing number of aircraft carriers dispatched by the USA play in those scenarios?
Will Schryver (@imetatronink) thinks the Gerald Ford is sailing to the Red Sea via Suez to provide air deference for Saudi petrochemical assets on the red Sea (trans-Saudi pipeline, tankering etc) and will not transit the Bab el Mandeb and risk the wrath of the Houthis.
I think this is a very sharp insight. The carriers and destroyers etc represent huge floating radar and air defence platforms. Iran has knocked out the stationary defences so the carrier groups are having to be used in substitute defence rather than attack.
Positioning the Gerald Ford carrier group east of Israel may restore some of the early warning ability for the Iron Dome, if the data can be fed across in the sane way as THAAD etc. The VLS refill problem (the US lacks at sea replenishment capability) is solved by keeping the carrier close along shore.
However, this does give Iran – and the Houthis! – a very tempting fixed target. A huge volley of missiles and drones converging all at once on the oil infrastructure, port and carrier group would deplete overwhelm it, forcing it into port to refill, and a follow-up could catch it with its pants down….
I think Will is spot on. the Red Sea long…something like the distance from Chicago to Miami. we should know by tonight US time or tomorrow AM. can’t remember exactly when they went through the Suez
Forget the hasbara propaganda for the ra-ra nationalist MSM watchers (used to be readers, sigh)… think of the personnel every country’s armed services and intel outfits have scouring the blogs of Will Schryver, gCaptain etc to see whether their cunning plans have been noticed.
They probably have a default weighting factor for info from every key participant, whether blog poster or commentator, and AI to prioritise.
I would think it would be in the best interest of the Iranians and their allies to disable but not sink a carrier.
Would a French or British carrier do? They are sailing for the war zone too and Trump would not care if they got hit.
Macron says that the Charles de Gaulle will stay in the Mediterranean. That will probably not change in the near term.
Damaging an aircraft carrier is much better than sinking it because:
1) A disabled ship can no longer participate in the fight; it is as good as sunk.
2) The USA/France/UK must divert other ships to tow it back to port.
3) The damaged ship will be berthed for repairs, occupying a dock and technical crews, thus preventing other existing ships from being maintained or new ships from being built — probably for a long time in the case of the USA, given the dismal state of its shipyards.
And specifically for aircraft carriers from the USA and France:
4) They are nuclear powered, so sinking them eventually means a very nasty, long-lasting pollution because of all the radioactive isotopes seeping into regional waters. Better not count on any kind of high-tech operation to salvage the reactor from the shipwreck, so make sure the vessel has enough buoyancy to return to its home port.
Disabling an aircraft carrier doesn’t generate the media outrage that sinking one would. So far media exuberance for the war has been curiously limited, but a sunken aircraft could be used as a rallying cry like the “attack” on the USS Maddox was used to escalate US involvement in Vietnam.
I’m frankly surprised that we are yet to see any major false flag action from Trump and Hegseth.
Exactly. Just punch a few holes in the flight deck.
And the same goes for attacking Israel. The Postol scenario of leveling Tel Aviv isn’t necessary. The point that the Iranians need to make is that our puffed up, would be world conquerors can dish it out but can’t take it. As someone here said they have a glass jaw.
That glass jaw is spelled n-e-o-l-I-b-e-r-a-l-I-s-m.
The just in time/aversion to inventories thing will be the end of us, just like the outsourcing of our industry.
Thanks Bill!
“Thanks Bill!” – I think this reveals a common fallacy, to blame the person who started it. There have been several Presidents since then that did nothing to fix it. I blame them more because the problem becomes more apparent as time goes on.
I blame less the first person who was just trying something new and didn’t know how it would turn out. Leaders should be able to try new things. But the ones who come later and ignore the problem should get an even larger share of the blame if that new thing turns out to have been a bad choice. IMHO
Agree for the most part, just trying to point out the bipartisan nature of where we are at, which your point dovetails nicely.
Yes, I remain astonished that our elites spend forty years outsourcing the manufacturing base, trashing our education system, crushing the middle class, two decades of senseless wars that grind down the military, and run the country so that healthcare, housing, and food are so much more unaffordable, and are unable to realize that all this $hit is linked together at real low levels.
Run your country into the ground means your “empire” is sure to follow. That’s not exactly rocket science.
They really want to continue to live in that bubble of 1992 maximum unipolar moment and have surrounded themselves with stooges and a MSM to beat back reality.
Re: “However, this does give Iran – and the Houthis! – a very tempting fixed target.” –
The only reasonable place I can see in the entire Red Sea for a carrier group to resupply is at Jeddah. There are significant Saudi military bases at both the port and the airport. All well within the range of Iranian missiles.
>As for the developments and the ideas about the US Navy forcing the Hormuz strait, marines occupying the Kargh island, or special forces elbowing their way towards the Iranian stash of enriched uranium: I am wondering what role will the increasing number of aircraft carriers dispatched by the USA play in those scenarios?
They will play the role of artificial reefs at the rate things are going…
Don’t worry, Australia is considering helping out;
https://michaelwest.com.au/aussie-forces-could-help-secure-critical-oil-route/
It might be that any new carrier on the scene will replace those already there. I believe that the USS Gerald R. Ford, for example, has been at sea for over eight months and not only is their crew exhausted but that carrier will require months in port for maintenance and overhaul. You can’t keep ships at sea for so long as you are just building up trouble for yourself and you can bet that the crew of that carrier will be glad to finally go home and see their families. But I doubt that the White House staff understand this and US admirals are always eager to please by agreeing to any extra assignments added to their ship’s workloads.
Imo the purpose of us weapons production is profit, not effectiveness/reliability etc. maximize profit by small production (low input cost, minimal employees etc), sole source/no competition to max profit. Too bad that means improvements are glacial. Naturally no incentive to be able to quickly ramp up whether 155mm shells or missiles. Want more product? No problem, 50b up front check will do it, should be foll production maybe 2030? If all goes well. And somebody else finds some rare earths. And…
Funny, Iran/russia/China have no prob with quantity at low cost… weird system…
No mention of Jihad to speak of?
I wonder how long it will take for the Trump administration to find an excuse for Martial Law, his administration has been defying the Courts for Months and that is about to come to a head, Martial Law is just the kind of “Solution” that appeals to these idiots.
Trump s deranged and I mean that in a literal sense, he will double down or worse and when it becomes clear his War is a loser he will look for someone or some thing he can smash and that is likely to be here in the USA.
Why should there be a jihad? That implies an organized force. There is no organized religious force.
Some have said that if there is a fatwa by the new Supreme Leader, who is the top authority among the Shia, Shia in Gulf States and Saudi Arabia would turn on their government. Shia are something like 80% of the population of Bahrain. They are more like 13% in Saudi Arabia but have long been the oil field workers.
>No mention of Jihad
I believe Football Pete Hegseth, offensive hack for The Jerusalem Heifers, has in fact declared jihad.
Indeed.
I finally got a start today on a book mentioned often over the years at NC – Voltaire’s Bastards – and came across a quote from Voltaire that seems apropos to this current conflict, especially with the ‘holy war’ rhetoric coming from some of the more delusional Westerners and the state of armed conflict today –
“Dieu n’est pas pour les gros bataillons, mais pour ceux qui tirent le mieux.”
“God doesn’t favor those with the huge battalions, but those who are the best shots.”
Perhaps the whole world will remember this Alamo
I was thinking of comparing it to Athens’s disastrous Sicilian Expedition but that one was popular with the Athenians-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sicilian_Expedition
However, I just finished re-reading John Michael Greer’s “Twilight’s Last Gleaming” which this time around was uncomfortable reading. The US decides to invade a country to steal it’s oil which ends up in a military defeat which destabilizes the United States-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight%27s_Last_Gleaming_(novel)
Due Dissidence talk about Prof. Yang’s analysis. utube, ~44+ minutes.
Professor Jiang Makes DIRE PREDICTION For Iran War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VabYZMcH2aM
OK, so what’s the punchline?
Why should we spend 45-minutes of our lives watching this video?
What makes this relevent to people who are not already subscribed to the “Due Dissendnce” channel?
I am concerned about Professor Jiang, his analysis is half accurate – for example, he uses the CIA line that the US has air superiority. This is a key and very improtant point (teh US has lotsof dumb bombs but not so many tomahawks, so if it cannot overfly Iran, it cant use dumb bombs), Plus 5 US jets have been shot down -qand there is zero evidence for it – see Alistair Crooke – so why is he repeating a CIA talking point as a starting point for his arguments.
This is one example, but it raises the question as to whether he is ill-informed or is consciously partly supporting US psy-ops. There are other cases, and so I stopped bothering to listen to him given my time constraints.
Not saying he is wrong, but extra attention is needed.
February 28, 2026: a date that will live in infamy
Alamo, the first five letters of the new Supreme Leader’s name.
Israel will target ‘every successor’ appointed by Iran’s Islamic regime, IDF warns
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-889206
I am currently sitting at an outdoor cafe across from St John’s cathedral in old Valletta and there is a giant Iran flag flying in front of the church (during Sunday service no less). Just a little note for the crusaders in the white house that the message is not landing on the street!
Wow, on the literal crusader island and one of the most Catholic countries on Earth!
I went to get a closer look. Republic Street is lined with flags for the bienniale. Iran and Lebanon flags were near the church. No Israel or American flags present.
The memory of the WW2 siege is still very strong here.
Thanks for this post.
I watched T’s press conference on utube yesterday. I watch the short clip of him receiving the bodies of killed US service men and women at Dover AFB.His face and body language looked like that of a broken man. The slump, the hiding under a hat that no longer means anything, the drawn face. Rubio as much as said Isr forced the US to attack Iran. Is the US Isr’s colony? Who or what is running the US admin? (I had the same question about who was running the B admin. Even the B admin did not let itself get sucked into another war for Isr.)
I respectfully disagree on the B admin having clean hands. Aiding and abetting a genocide and giving cover to these monsters has emboldened them and led to further atrocities. When I read people complaining that abstaining from voting for Harris led to this war my blood boils (not you, Flora. Have been seeing this claim on reddit).
Hakeem Jeffries won’t commit to blocking additional Iran war funding
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/hakeem-jeffries-wont-commit-iran-war-funding-defense-department-rcna262271
(Pushes photo of Epstein across the table) It all comes back to this guy and who he was affiliated with. That’s the tail that wags the dog. It flies the zn’ist flag.
The way I see it is we would be in this same spot were Harris elected.
All true even as Epic Fury transitions to Epstein Fubar.
Thats right, the whole lot of them brag about “the most lethal armed forces in the World!”.
Those are not the words of a peace monger. Harris was too busy speaking to listen and lost as a consequence. These things are written in stone. Biden Harris led the country into both ukraine and gaza unapologetically, and both were long term operations over many administrations. There is no good party, they are two wings of extra national global finance from the tpp to commodity control and all schemes between. Someone linked (TomDority at 10:20am) in conors post I think a 2012 harvard study that showed that to be true even then. Anyone remember st. obama? My “taxi driver” is my med mba brother who is drenched in orthodoxy, convinced that ai is ruining his class, to which I can only ponder “first they came for the gays…” as he is a committed employed of undocumented labor which particularly in san diego means don’t be a worker of any nationality there because cheap is the only thing that counts so I couldnt get out of there fast enough. Another strongly held belief is that traffic jam of every kind and size of vehicle between palm springs and LA will be all self driving in one tech bro unit (10 yrs., of course), while I’m thinking in 10 years 80% of the cars that are being self driven by the human will still be in that traffic jam. And rambling my way to the point, he laments that the dems are not in charge because of course it would be better, no citations offered or received.
Im no longer sure just saying aiding and abetting is sufficient. Our country was an active accomplice in commiting the genocide. Our drones and jets along with the British were flying over Gaza every day mapping out and gathering intelligence for the Israelis.
Remember 2016 when dems were actively aiding Trump in order for him to become the repub nominee? He’d be a push-over, they said…
How’d that work out?!?
>Even the B admin did not let itself get sucked into another war for Isr.
Ukraine has entered the chat.
I will grant you that war was not at the behest of Israel. There are competing crime families.
ISR is the geopolitical analog of a Cordyceps fungus.
The IRGC made two separate statements yesterday. The most salient points of which are:
1. In the first week, Iran fired 600 missiles and 2600 drones of all types (https://t.me/parstodayrussian/195975#). The statement also gives a couple of additional nuggets, such as a 60/40 breakdown between US/Israeli targets.
2. Iran can sustain operations at their current intensity for at least another six months (https://t.me/parstodayrussian/196020#).
Let’s take Day 1 out of the equation, which, if memory does not fail me this AM, was ~300 missiles and ~1000 drones. For the remaining six days this leaves an average rate of 50 missiles and 266 drones per day; let’s round that down to 40 missiles and 250 drones per day. Over 180-7 = 173 days that means Iran is prepared to fire 6920 missiles and 43250 drones before it has to reduce operational intensity. I can even round these figures down to 6k and 40k. This is still vastly more than US and Israeli defenses are capable of dealing with, it seems to me.
Larry Johnson had posted that the US will start running down its PAC-3 Patriot stocks by March 19th; I think that with rationing, and especially if the Iranians reduce the launches further by switching from older, more plentiful to newer, more expensive missiles, the Pentagon can stretch things into April. But unless someone is lying about the figures, at some point soon basic arithmetic will mean the end. In fact, at some point Iran might legitimately start to run out of US targets, but that’s a different order problem.
The only way for the US to break this arithmetic, other than “regime change”, is:
a) Attrit the launchers and seal up missile base entrances. This is difficult, provided the Iranians are not wholly incompetent. And it would be virtually impossible to stop drone launches, as the experience of both sides in Ukraine amply demonstrates.
b) Hit the factories, or, more importantly, their logistical chains (because the factories themselves can be underground, but at some point materials have to be transported by truck). This requires air dominance over much of the country, and would still not do anything to extant stocks of thousands of missiles and (I am guessing) tens of thousands of drones.
c) Give the Iranians another target to shoot at. Like the Kurds. Or the Azeris. Or whatever. The Russians actually seem pretty worried about Aliev, so who knows.
d) Try to pull the British Indirect Approach That Never Works(TM) type of strategy by dropping troops via helos into Bandar Abbas or Kharg Island, thus “ending” Iranian oil exports and…something something. Somehow, I suspect this will not go quite like the Siege of Tehran map in one of them “Call of Duty” video games, and yes, this is a thing, from back in 2021.
e) Try to get the Iranians to surrender by first attacking their cities with conventional weapons, and then, ultimately, a few nukes. This is the worst case scenario, and I’m not sure the Pentagon will go for it, but with increasing desperation in the White House and in Tel Aviv anything is possible.
f) Conversely, Trump could try to PT Barnum the situation by doing One Big Strike, then immediately stopping operations and declaring victory. Not sure what happens at that point, since a lot will depend on how the Iranians play the situation.
Even the most ga-ga pro-American Homer Simpsonesque USA-USA individual in the room has to take a pause at this point. One would think.
We had a post on this earlier. Attriting the launchers is close to pointless. Unlike the US, the Iranians designed their mobile launchers to use readily available truck chassis. So the limiting factor for them is the missiles, not the launchers.
I can’t quickly find the long tweet in which this appeared, but this gives you an idea:
This may be true for the older and shorter-range missiles but certainly not for more sophisticated systems.
One of the newer missiles they just introduced to the war:the Khyber Shakan, a ballistic missile used in the attempt on Haifa:
Translated from Farsi:
Another advantage is the ability to use a wide range of launchers. According to the published images, the launcher used for the Khyber-Shakan missile is mounted on a 10-wheel commercial chassis that can also be camouflaged as a commercial vehicle
I believe the missile in the picture is Fateh-110D, so we may need to define “sophisticated” in this case. It may actually be two missiles, as that’s the usual set-up with these MB-truck launchers.
It uses solid fuel booster, so from storage to launch should take only minutes. It has, allegedly, fiber-optical gyroscopes, satellite-based mid-course correction, half-a-ton warhead, 300 km range and CEP of few tens of meters.
I guess it’s sophisticated enough for driving US from the Gulf. And reminding Azerbaijan of the brotherhood between the two nations.
Fateh 110 family of missiles is an older short-range design. Most are on military TEL, but there are photos of heavily modified trucks as launchers, e.g. https://missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Fateh-110_short_range_ballistic_missile_Iran_Iranian_army_defence_industry_military_technology_640_002.jpg
In any case, these could be hard to detect but are costly to make and not unlimited.
They may not have a limit on trucks that are suitable to use. But trucks and launchers are not the same thing. So launchers may still be a limiting factor.
What it does mean is that if a launcher is destroyed on a truck, they only have to build a new launcher, not a specilaised vehicle that it sits on.
No, we published a close to article length tweet that said the reverse. But since you had to click through to get the detail, I am not readily able to find it again on Twitter, and do not have time to dig through the last 4 days of posts.
But see:
a) Attrit the launchers and seal up missile base entrances. This is difficult, provided the Iranians are not wholly incompetent. And it would be virtually impossible to stop drone launches, as the experience of both sides in Ukraine amply demonstrates.
Not going to happen. Mobile on commercial truck chasses. [As Yves says.] Larry Johnson noted zero actual intercepts of Iraqi mobile launchers during Iraq invasion and total air supremacy.
b) Hit the factories, or, more importantly, their logistical chains (because the factories themselves can be underground, but at some point materials have to be transported by truck). This requires air dominance over much of the country, and would still not do anything to extant stocks of thousands of missiles and (I am guessing) tens of thousands of drones.
20 years of supplies. IRGC broken into 32 autonomous subunits each with attack orders and stashes of missiles and air defense capabilities. Its already dispersed. Its already hidden. Country is a desert surrounded by mountains. Lots of terrain to hide in. Remember Nixon trying to bomb the Viet Cong supply lines?
c) Give the Iranians another target to shoot at. Like the Kurds. Or the Azeris. Or whatever. The Russians actually seem pretty worried about Aliev, so who knows.
Yeah, Iran only has about 1.0 million ground forces, and any ethnic separatists are going to be geographically isolated. It worked so well for Iraq with chemical weapons, didn’t it?
d) Try to pull the British Indirect Approach That Never Works(TM) type of strategy by dropping troops via helos into Bandar Abbas or Kharg Island, thus “ending” Iranian oil exports and…something something. Somehow, I suspect this will not go quite like the Siege of Tehran map in one of them “Call of Duty” video games, and yes, this is a thing, from back in 2021.
Better to cut their hearts out on an altar to placate the Sun, same chance of success, same outcome, but faster and more humane.
e) Try to get the Iranians to surrender by first attacking their cities with conventional weapons, and then, ultimately, a few nukes. This is the worst case scenario, and I’m not sure the Pentagon will go for it, but with increasing desperation in the White House and in Tel Aviv anything is possible.
Yeah, but no one in history has ever been able to secure a victory relying solely on air power. Ultimately, who cares, people die, territory is poisoned, the survivors relocate and fight on. Read about what was dropped on the Island of Japan in WWII. It wasn’t the bomb that caused the surrender.
f) Conversely, Trump could try to PT Barnum the situation by doing One Big Strike, then immediately stopping operations and declaring victory. Not sure what happens at that point, since a lot will depend on how the Iranians play the situation.
Not going to happen. Israel is in an existential struggle with Iran which will not stop until one of them is destroyed. Sure, there could be a cease fire in which both sides attempt to gain advantage over the other side in the next battle. But Trump won’t walk away and leave Israel out to dry, and Iran has no incentive to stop attacks any time soon until they can inflict a strategic defeat.
The real problem for the US is after the exhaustion of AD stocks and shortly thereafter, offensive missile stocks, combined with the Chinese ban on rare earth and other products, why wouldn’t the Russians expand attacks into Poland and Germany, knocking out Ukrainian logistics and triggering a potential invocation of Article V (and the end of NATO when the trump sounds unanswered), while China implements a strategic blockade of Taiwan? You can live for years in fear of a bully, but if someone manages to stab him in the leg and he starts to bleed out, isn’t that the time when everyone else comes in to finish him off?
America has this glorious conventional army, but our carriers have to operate 1000 kilometers away because they are sitting ducks for mid-range hypersonics, unmanned air drones are a serious match for manned jets, and much cheaper to produce. The US barely has any combat forces once you realize it is about 8:1 combat support to combat troops given the logistical trains necessary to operate across continents. Yeah, the US has a lot of nukes but so does Russia and China. No, this is the end for the Empire, the end of the US presence in the ME, the end of globalization, the end of the dollar, financial collapse, and some major shifts in spheres of influence and the balance of power unseen since 1991. SHTF.
It’s sad and enraging to think about but I can’t help but assume that this war will go nuclear.
That is my biggest worry too. Trump sounds completely deranged now, like an obnoxious drunk falling off his bar stool and getting ready to have delirium tremens. And he’s surrounded himself with other psychotics and moral midgets who will just go along with whatever insanity pops into Trump’s addled brain. He’s actually making senile Joe Biden look almost fully compos mentis by comparison. Having a genuine madman in the White House controlling our nuclear arsenal is extremely frightening. If some patriotic members of our military who still take their oath to the Constitution seriously can’t stop him, he could destroy the world just to keep his vanity intact.
I don’t think the nuclear exchange starts with the US. I think the US response to a nuclear exchange makes it worse.
If the US abandons Israel while Israel is still nuclear capable, then Israel will use its weapons. If the US and Israel appear to be losing, and no opportunities for improvement exist, Israel will use its weapons. If the war becomes worse and Israeli citizens revolt and dislodge Netanyahu and his people, there will be a mad dash for using their weapons. If Israel can target someone else to get them to take out Iran, Israel will use its weapons. On the current trajectory I don’t see any reason why Israel won’t be employing nuclear weapons in this conflict. Which as you said is sad and enraging.
But to think through what we know has already been said about one of those scenarios, if Israel nukes Iran, then Pakistan nukes Israel. India likely takes the opportunity to respond in kind and attacks Pakistan. Pakistan will respond against India if they are able. Other nations may use this as cover to enact their goals using these massive weapons. China and North Korea might get creative. Which all points to the reason why this conflict was so stupid.
The US has no control over outcomes. The US has no ability to de-escalate or control things. The course of the conflict is out of our hands. Even if we were to miraculously get Israel to commit to demilitarizing their country Iran doesn’t have to stop and likely wouldn’t stop until they believed they were safe. The US also can’t keep this up. Our ability to produce weapons is too degraded. Our economy is too weak to continue this effort for very long. Which is why I think we might engage in use of small warheads to take out opponents while we’re losing. But I still think it isn’t the US who starts the nuclear exchanges. It’s Israel because they have badly miscalculated how effective the Iranians would be and how much support they have from the US.
If US abandons Isr, I can see them nuking Iran and the US.
I can also see Trump authorizing use of nukes.
The Samson option has them nuking every European capital once they feel the need for a terminal temper tantrum. Quite a threat. I don’t know if Russia might have a capability of shooting down Israeli nukes aimed at Moscow and St. Petersburg, but the chances of any of the other European nations being able to do it are probably really slim.
Wrong! That’s what those radars and Aegis Ashore missile tubes in Poland and Romania are for! /s off
Moscow has potentially the most comprehensive AD (air defense) complex of any city in the world. The silo-launched A-135 Nudol and its replacement, the A-235 are exo-atmospheric missiles whose acceleration out-of-the-can really has to be seen to be believed (Wikipedia). Depending on your source, they are reported to carry a low-yield conventional nuke or a neutron bomb, and are able to clear out a volume considerably greater than that provided by a kinetic kill vehicle. Then there are the S-500 and S-550 AD complexes which also have the ability to track and hit hyper-sonic maneuvering targets.
Per Andrei Martyanov (apologies for not providing a link, but Andrei’s blog does not lend itself to searching), Moscow could likely defend itself from the full French nuclear arsenal, but if Israel indeed has the 300 nukes that is being mentioned of late, and the delivery systems for that many warheads, then that is a different story.
However, given the cordial relations between Vladimir and Bibi, I see no reason why Israel would be so reckless as to attack the Russian Federation with any sort of weapon.
We’ve already seen that if you try that you might get your arm broken by a sitting Senator…
Yeah, I was a little less worried about this before I learned how many military officers are giving the troops religious doctrine as inspiration. The USAF academy has been known to be thick with evangelical types for decades. And now many of them are officers in a crusade for Christ ™
Worth noting that the story about the religious angle to this may have been overblown or fabricated: https://www.friendlyatheist.com/p/before-you-share-that-story-about
Not clear that there’s any source for it beyond “one guy said so”; I’ve not seen any sources that don’t trace their origin to the MRFF, and if it were true and widespread, I’d expect at least some of those soldiers to have reached out elsewhere.
I have to imagine that Russia and China have been discussing this possibility. It seems that they should have attack orders for their subs (or other assets?) if they happen across one of those Israeli submarines.
And what has Putin said to Bibi in those private talks?
time for a little Mose Allison perchance – a necessary sardonic perspective –
I Don’t Worry About a Thing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhhOcicVNgM
and one for tRump – Your Mind Is on Vacation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6LlpU7csRk
Bravo! Thanks!
gladly!
and to add a couple more –
“….Everybody’s crying peace on earth
Just as soon as we win this war….”
Everybody Cryin’ Mercy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fUoEIA6414
Stop This World
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grk8Z_SLMlU
add — “We’ll meet again”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1Xx88KtzHg
I feature Mose all the time on my weekly radio show. Thanks for the reminder I will again soon.
If Iran continues to survive while damaging Israel as we move up the escalation ladder, then I think this is likely the way the war will turn nuclear:
1. Israel out of desperation will eventually use tactical nukes against Iran, while denying that it is doing so.
2. Iran will announce that Israel has used nukes, and will attack the Israel nuclear facility Dimona in response to Israeli use of tactical nukes.
3. Israel nukes Iran again, on the grounds that Iran’s attacking Dimona is equivalent to a nuclear attack.
4. Eventually the U.S. joins Israel in this project.
Do we know for sure that Iran hasn’t already hit Dimona?
They have targeted many places in the Negev desert.
During the June kerfuffle, IIRC, Iran struck a few places very close to Dimona, i.e., to send a message.
Russia and China are all in to make certain Iran doesn’t lose – and that the US does. This means they will not allow Trump/Nettanyahoo to trump Russia and China’s near existential strategy by threatening nukes – I assume if Israel does use a nuke, Russia has communicated to the US that several high altitude EMPs will occur over the Middle East and will take out all US military assets (and oil production for a decade), as well as eliminating Israeli’ ability to function above the caveman level – Hezbollah with guns can take over Israel, then.
The US zionists will skin Trump alive if he allows this to unfold as will the Epstein Oligrachy Class who stands to lose trillions and trillions and trillions. Somewhere around this point I expect a US military coup.
It just doesn’t stand to reason that Russia and China would go this far in and allow such an obvious card to cancel their future. OTH, Ted Postol argues that in 3-4 weeks Iran can have 10 nukes and deter Israel (i.e., deterrence), possibly from a week ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbQI_IYz6uM
What do we make of the fact the MSM news has for the last few days been hyping the landing of a *single* B-1 Lancer at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, UK, on March 6, 2026, specifically for use against Iran.
Will the nuclear attack, should it happen, be delivered from a single plane launched from the UK? Or do they want the Iranians to think so.
They’ve landed 4, plus several transports.
Admission against interest file:
Several homes in north damaged by helicopter fire during attempts to down Hezbollah drone, IDF says
6 wounded by shrapnel, 1 seriously, as Iran fires suspected cluster warhead missile at Israel (Times of Israel)
Ok this is what Iran needs to be doing to drive Netanyahu to the bargaining table (visible strikes in civilian areas that can’t be obscured by censorship). In the last few days of the 12 days last summer it was the residential blocks getting hit in Allenby (upper class neighborhood in central Tel Aviv) that led to normal Israelis accepting maybe they were out of their depth. They didn’t know about the lack of interceptors. Netanyahu was under serious pressure to stop the strikes after it was clear civilians were not safe
bargaining table? – offer of a blindfold and a last cigarette is more in order –
On a personal level I absolutely agree. But as an observer with more familiarity with Israel itself and the current political climate, right now I don’t see a clear path to getting there from here. If you believe (as I do) that much of what is driving Netanyahu’s actions is staying out of prison due to his ongoing corruption trial that keeps getting delayed by war-driven states of exception (I think it was telling that on day 3 or 4 Trump was bleating at Herzog again to pardon Netanyahu immediately “so he could focus on the war”), then I see only a handful of routes for Israel to stop:
– Jerusalem is flattened, including the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa and the Knesset: extremely unlikely IMHO
– Netanyahu is assassinated: 40%, either by Iran before the end of hostilities or by the Kahanist/settler faction shortly after if he cuts the war short
– Netanyahu is arrested: 30%, requires significant military backing in addition to factional cohesion by the non-Kahanists in power, something that has not yet been in evidence the last 5+ years (but Bennett appears to be maneuvering)
– Netanyahu is removed in a military coup: 10%, may be possible if there are enough high ranking officers who refuse to follow orders to preemptively use the nukes
– Enough civilian infrastructure (not necessarily casualties) is destroyed to destroy the fantasy of Israeli air defense during wars on seven fronts: 90%, it was how the war last summer ended (it will be spun as some form of victory or blaming the Iran populace for not rising up when given the option to lay the foundation for a future round)
forgot to add – /sarc – of course obvious – agree with your driving force why, and it took a populace agreeing with him once started – been circling the drain since Rabin taken out – also agree it will take the 90% route to jam the obvious down their throats – and it will be well deserved –
If I use my imagination, I would say, Iran can hit the water treatment plants, the electric power plants, the trasmission stations, the gas systems, the sewage treatment plants, refineries, etc., etc., and the IDF will be overwhelmed with keeping millions of starving, desperate Israelis alive but not allowing them to leave.
Then, use the drones to keep the military air fields unoperational – say 50 drones per day should succeed – remember US jets needs a perfect runway or their jets suck in debris and die. Then Hezbollah can move south, probably with Turkish sheep dipped troops (as Erdogan will choose the winning camel to ride rather than the two he is currently riding.
Iran’s goal is to make Israel untenable for a population of more than a few hundred thousand, and the US to lose all its bases in West Asia. An Iranian military base in the holy land, would also likely be part. of the settlement.
I’d like to see a major newspaper publish a cumulative list of Americans who die in this War under the heading “He/She Died for Israel”.
As a “Way to honor those who gave their all in this holy cause”.
Do it deadpan, no obvious snark and without specifying what the “Holy Cause” is.
One of the most brutal tweets (via X) I’ve seen so far.
Forgive me for copy/pasting from yesterday. I gotta stop posting stuff just before the new post appears :)
I’ve not copied the links due to tiredness/laziness but the point is clear.
Proportional, and point very well made.
—
Part 1
US hit desalination plant on Qeshm Island (Iran Intl)
Part 2
Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf | MB Ghalibaf (Speaker of Islamic Republic of Iran’s Parliament) (twitter/nitter)
1/ The crime committed by the US-Zionist alliance in targeting the desalination plant on Qeshm Island was carried out with support of a US base in a neighboring country in the south. This aggression will meet a proportionate response.
2/ US bases in the region are platforms for attacking Iran. The origin of any attack is the destination of our response.
Part 3
Iranian drone damages desalination plant in Bahrain (ABC)
FAFO, as I believe the kids say…
Part 4?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/08/middle-east-crisis-live-china-warns-world-cannot-return-to-law-of-the-jungle-trump-says-iran-being-decimated?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-69ad86d88f08ef977b472024#block-69ad86d88f08ef977b472024
Israel-US attack five oil facilities in Iran. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson says attack on energy infrastructure marks dangerous new phase of war.
Mark Sleboda with Garland Nixon, March 5th
60 min.
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/russia-may-cut-off-eu-gas-qatar-cuts
Major points re: Iran
-Iran and Israel both in danger of wearing each other down completely
-danger to Iran in the long run, since no economy, and CIA trying to prepare unrest in fringe areas of Iran where proxy forces are strong enough / also why US bombs police stations and barracks
-such global chaos, it is impossible to predict anything and extremely volatile and dangerous
-Garland mentions Texas primaries and furious GOP voters
-much can collapse or already has, US supremacy, maritime trade, non-proliferation, global energy markets, AI bubble bursting due to Gulf states in crisis
-what if ISR nukes Iran? What happens THEN? Arab states demanding nukes etc.
fun moment in the end: Never has it been so peaceful around…North Korea.
Nixon speculative add-on: He believes Venezuela not working out for US as planned as they might try to simply stall and not do anything the US wanted them to. He doesn´t say what exactly though.
STRIKE THIS SHIP AND CHINA ENTERS THE WAR. THE U.S. CAN’T TOUCH IT. AND IRAN IS USING IT TO WIN.
https://x.com/JinWooIQ/status/2030602603848200475
#TYVM
Not analgous circumstances, but, based on abjectly violent brutal long-duration war between Iraq and Iran in the 80’s, USreal may be greatly misunderestimating the many squirting unknown unknowns that lie in wait.
It’s a hard habit to break, this USrael magikal thinking.
Thank you for all of the coverage and comments. Fingers crossed it doesn’t go kinetic nuke.
Maybe somehow it dulls the shine and brings some focus on the mal-investment in AI, in the US, globally, and Space (a-hem- still waiting for my royalty checks from Elroy) .
The hoi polloi plebes may actually rise up and reset priorities for humanity than ever sharper war and death machines?
Seeing the us news about “collecting” the uranium. My reading is there will be tactical nuke used today on the Iranian uranium storage facility. It will be detonated underground to minimize fallout. But here we go. This is just my humble opinion.
You are assuming they will use the ultimate weapon against the thing they aren’t even worried about. It would, assuming used by Israel, also require them to to fully admit to the world that they have usable nuclear weapons.
So, to sum up, a nuclear proliferator using a nuke to stop proliferation.
Israel is a tiny country and their real regional dominance weapon is the United States and that’s the weapon they are trying to deploy at the moment. This weapon may be, as the atomic scientists say, a fizzle. Any use of nuclear weapons is already an admission of defeat and futility because you will face similar retaliation once Pandora’s Box is opened. There are plenty of warheads floating around now.
Agree with this.
During the negotiations, before US/Israel bombed the table, Iran already agreed to dramatic concessions on the nuke program, but the US/Israel went ahead and attacked them anyway. Ergo, this war is not about Iran and uranium.
This conflict is about Iran as a regional power standing in the way of Eretz Israel. It’s about effing with China and Russia.
As always “uranium” and “Islamofascism” are being used to frighten ppl and help tilt the public against Iran.
We’re assuming Israel is a rational actor in this? Don’t events provide evidence to the contrary?
“So, to sum up, a nuclear proliferator using a nuke to stop proliferation.”
Sounds great! I’ll take two of them…
I think we left logic and reason behind a long time ago. We’re here because of desperate people who want to maintain a status quo that can no longer be supported. They want to get as much of their wish list accomplished before the window of opportunity closes. So we’ll see who is really in charge soon. The business interests or the Zionists. My guess after looking at market trends today is that if people care at all about the business side of things, the US adventure is shut down in the next two weeks. At which point it will be too late to prevent a lot of serious circumstances from occurring. If we go past that horizon, it means there will be no negotiations internally or externally with the Zionist elements. They are in control and this will continue until they are dead or we are.
Uranium storage Facility with a big sign on it and an arrow – bomb here? Have you even seen the missile city tunnels – Col Davis has been showing them. If I were Iran, I would put it a mile down any one of dozens of miles and miles of tunnels, with only a few knowing which and where. And a full Hydrogen Bomb would do nothing. It is clear from the US targeting hospitals and schools, and paintings of missile launchers on the ground, that the US is not winning the Intel war.
Before the war, Scott went on and on about the amazing things US Intel would do to win the war. Now he is arguing they are incompetent nincompoops based on the actual battlefield outcomes. All the US bases and their radars and flattened. Iran is hitting the CIA and soldiers in their hotel rooms. Russia gave Iran Starlink sniffers to identify turncoats and spies, and this stopped the BIG CIA plan to win the war with the riots (who didn’t know such a thing was possible). Since then, the US has had no strategy.
I’m going long on US companies who make body bags……..
i live on the northern edge of the llano uplift…all that pink granite in the big whorehouse in austin comes from out this way.
so in addition to various quarries and outfits that shape and saw the granite(marble(sic) is pretty much gone, i hear)…theres lots of headstone makers.
ill drive by one of them on thursday and see if theyve got more blanks than last time i was through there 2 weeks ago.
Per a report today in the Washington Post, a pre-war intelligence assessment that a large scale ground invasion would be unable to topple the Iranian regime. A leak by Tulsi Gabbard presumably.
File under: white matter matters
Trump phoned CBS last night
“I have no idea what he’s talking about, who he is. I couldn’t care less,” Mr. Trump told CBS News, adding that Larijani has “already been defeated.”
“He intended to take over the Middle East and he’s conceded and surrendered to all of those countries because of me,” Mr. Trump told CBS News on Saturday night, when asked about Larijani. “He’s already surrendered to all of the Middle Eastern countries because he was trying to take over the entire Middle East. That’s why all of those rockets were long ago aimed at those countries. He had that planned, long before this started.”
“It’s been incredible, the job we’ve done. The missiles are blow to smithereens,” Mr. Trump said. “They’re down to very few. The drones are blown. The factories are being blown up as we speak. The navy is gone, it’s at the bottom of the sea. Forty-two ships, 42, in six days, 42 ships. The navy is gone. The air force is gone. Every single element of their military is gone. Their leadership is gone. There’s not a thing that’s not gone.”
“We’re winning at levels never seen before and quickly,” Mr. Trump added.
When asked if he would like to see U.S. allies do more at this juncture, Mr. Trump said, “I couldn’t care less. They can do whatever they want. The loyal ones are already in.”
Among many nonsensical lines, I notice Trump genuinely doesn’t know the difference between Larijani and Pezeshkian.
Thank you, I think. Wow. That man is going to get us all killed.
Surely someone higher up the food chain than me has noticed.
Plenty of the German high command reached similar conclusions in WWII. They were not successful in their efforts and died via piano wire.
And how gone is trump? Long gone Don.
That someone high enough on the food chain to make Trump see sense is Jesus Christ and He hasn’t arrived yet.
According to Evangelicals He will be right along some day soon, as soon as that Armageddon thingy is done with.
Ive been playing Tom Lehrer’s ” National Brotherhood week” and “We will all go together when we go” to keep my spirits up.
Enjoy the Beauty today brings you and make sure your potassium iodide is handy.
From my reading Potassium Iodide is of rather limited use. Primarily useful for younger people and only blocks one form of cancer. Not one and done either
Keeping a good long-term supply of uncontaminated potassium iodide and calcium and table salt will help avoid iodine radionuclides and also caesium. Multiminerals would help minimise dietary up take of any iron, copper, zinc and trace metals. Most of the other emitters are gases (krypton, oxygen, nitrogen) or heavy metals (wash produce, don’t eat soil or dust!).
Iodine is thought by some to protect against cancer generally so there’s no harm in taking a non-toxic dose. (studies in Japanese immigrants in the US showed a strong generational effect, with first generation having low Japanese rates and third generation having high US rates of breast cancer, with a signal that dietary shift was implicated).
Take with a grain of salt because things are moving fast, but @cirnosad is reporting that Iran has taken out four (4) additional AN/TPY2 AESA GaAs or GaN based X-band portable radars that were hustled to the combat theatre from non-theatre locations. See thread here: https://xcancel.com/cirnosad/status/2030672325306372248#m
Yes, in the “big if true” category.
https://x.com/TUsmaniX/status/2030619298423812231
This confirms a Tweext I saw a couple of days ago.
That doesn’t seem like a reliable source. Account started as a fake- hot Persian chick account begging for monetisation and evolved into a “saying wild shit about Iran and Israel” account.
Have seen nothing on pro Iranian telegram or news.
If it was true, it would be all over the internet, not “confirmed” without a source by a random spam account hoping for engagement.
Agreed, I haven’t seen anything even close to this anywhere.
The pics are definitely fake.
Two things can be simultaneously true:
1. The pics are fake
2. Some soldiers really were captured.
In fact, if I were working for the infowar department of the Pentagon, releasing fake AI pictures to discredit the operation would be exactly the right move.
Isn’t that interesting if true. Delta Force’s 1st big operation was a botched hostage rescue attempt……46 years ago in Iran.
Just a reminder that Delta Force was created after Congress briefly displayed a spine in the 70s and forced oversight of the CIA who had been the ones previously running clandestine murder missions. So the higher ups created Delta Force to do the same s*it the CIA used to do, without the pesky oversight.
Delta troop soldiers are very expensive troops, a very small percentage of troops have the physical, mental and emotional qualities (Psychopathy?) that the job requires.
The training is not cheap and neither is their equipage or ongoing maintenance and improvement.
Lots of $ per trooper and they can not be easily replaced.
Losing this many in a day…..oops.
Retired Army Chief of Staff General Mark Miley assesses the status of the war.
https://x.com/remi_philiponet/status/2030630969883963774
TFG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nyYCln09fgs
LSS – Piracy…
Also, lots of talk of insurance. He and they are loving this!
Lots of ships using AIS to say-
CHINESE CREW
https://www.marinetraffic.com
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:690314/mmsi:477932600/imo:9486532/vessel:NEW_PIONEER
FOR ORDER’ALLCHINESE
If monitoring AJ English live feed is any indicator, Israel seems to be announcing more Iranian missile salvos in the last 24 or so hours, but then no information comes after that. Since it is so difficult to know what is really happening inside Israel, one can only speculate on the likely increase in attacks and increase in damage on the ground in Israel, but that’s just a crude guess.
The emperor displays symptoms of mental disorder, he just claimed that Iran itself attacked the girls’ school. The desperate Israeli/US appear to be attacking more civilian infrastructure, hospitals, etc. The suffering of Iranians (as well as Lebanese, Palestinians etc.) is heartbreaking, and sadly there will be much more damage and death in the coming days and weeks. However, the Iranians know that this is an existential war and it looks like they will fight as long as they are able to continue to launch missiles.
Alastair Crooke mentioned Iranian decentralized command and control systems and even if Tehran is flattened the “dead hand” will continue to launch missiles. I extrapolate this to mean that even if the US/Isr use so-called tactical nuclear weapons, Iran could still continue to inflict damage. By this time the US/Isr would have run out of interceptors.
Stas Krapivnik’s reaction to the possible special forces or any ground invasion from US, Israel, Kurds, or Azerbaijan appears is “have fun”. The “leaked” intel in the WaPo article claims that even a large scale invasion would not likely affect regime change. And experts agree, the US does not have the capability for a large scale invasion.
https://x.com/AFRICANDEMOC/status/2030595791019024747
Needs confirmation but big if true.
Seems like BS. I think we’d have seen something about the “people on the streets and taking control”. Video seems very sus.
Closest I saw was a video of some security forces shooting some sort of dispersal round at a group of people yesterday or the day before. Said it was Bahrain, but I have no way to confirm it – or that it was actually a recent vid for that matter.
Everything needs to be taken with a couple pinches of salt, and checked against at least one or two other sources.
I’ve been reading lightly about the process of a US nuke launch. I’m completely ignorant.
If I understand correctly:
Trump alone orders it. (No checks, designed to be quick in case of attack).
Stratcom Commander (and Trump appointee) Richard A. Correll receives call and is only plausible person to say “hold on, this is illegal” due to eg strike on civilian target.
From Corell, order goes to actual button pressers who are less likely to do anything but press button.
Is this right?
(Also JFC that I am researching this for a war of choice)
See below. This was a pretty good article about possible scenarios. Written a few days prior to the US launching strikes on Iran. Might be of some interest to you and others.
https://no01.substack.com/p/the-second-after?triedRedirect=true
I watched, at the time I was in SAC, Bomber side.
Our personal reassurance was “survivors would envy the dead”. We being priority targets.
AI LLMs trained to game nuclear escalations 80% of simulations went to full MAD. Probably lower % than humans.
The Israelis would set a bad precedent for Kim, he might take out Japan for a long standing grudge. If he followed MAGA think.
I wanted to say that was a good read but it got pretty depressing halfway through.
The author is spot on about how it would turn into a shitshow.
Base commanders can refuse, and they have done so in the past. E.g.:
“Seconds Away From Midnight”: U.S. Nuclear Missile Pioneers On Okinawa Break Fifty Year Silence On A Hidden Nuclear Crisis Of 1962
https://apjjf.org/2012/10/30/jon-mitchell/3800/article
We don´t know what is really being said behind closed doors in the WH and between military and
WH.
Whatever bluster Hegseth or Trump are putting out it´s acting. Look at Rubio. He already is way more critical in comparison. That looks rather like a usual divison of roles in public.
Hegseth appears like any person of public interest who hates to play the moron but follows orders. It´s the part he was cast for in January. And he fulfills it.
What it was Israel promised before, quick assassinations or no more Epstein or a whole package of carrot and sticks to Trump, is another matter. And in how far there was a lot of coersion.
You seriously telling me he appoints Gabbard and then doesn´t believe her but still keeps her there?
He can say whatever he wants to in public. He is POTUS.
That doesn´t mean it´s what he really thinks.
Nixon from media´s POV too did all kinds of stupid things eventually but only fell because one of the “plumbers” sang.
Hadn´t it been for Hunt and that other dude, probably no resignation.
This now looks more like a question of lacking competence than sanity.
Hegseth hates to play the moron. Well, he’s definitely not the most brilliant Sec. of Defense in US history…
Re Nixon, I agree. Congress did not seem at all interested in impeaching or prosecuting Nixon/Kissinger for carpet-bombing SE Asia without even informing Congress, let alone getting formal approval.
Watergate didn’t take Nixon down; Watergate was planned to take Nixon down.
He wouldn’t go as far as MIC wanted and right before his end said, “I know who killed Jack.”
@Rip Van Winkle,
At your convenience, please identify the source.
Who says Hegseth is playing?
Hegseth ” Looks Right” and Trump knew who he was so he is now SecWar.
If you pay a little time looking at what he has said and done I believe you will see that he is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
He is manifestly unqualified, the job requires intelligence and integrity and he is lacking in both.
Carrot and stick work together to control the ones you own.
And a persons price is often much lower than you might assume.
AIPAC gave my local Republican representative $18K with the implicit ( And recently explicit in some cases) threat that they would fund an opponent if he got out of line.
He hasn’t criticized the Genocide in Gaza, votes the right way an arms deals and is generally a well behaved big biz/big ag republican.
He is opposed to this War and is having a “Town Hall” with a number of Veterans who are also opposed to this madness on Friday, in Napa.
And it is madness, this is not sane behavior on the part of the Israeli’s or the Trump administration.
I believe you are referring to a “wine country” Democrat in Napa/Sonoma Counties
He is also a Vietnam Vet, which made his Gaza stance even more cynical, as he should know better.
Maybe he had a “come to Jesus” moment.
The event has already happened Friday, March 6.
“Hadn´t it been for Hunt and that other dude, probably no resignation. ”
Maybe you’re thinking of Gordon Liddy, who ran the original burglary along with Hunt. Liddy later became a TV star of sorts. But it was Alexander Butterfield who spilled the beans to Congress about the recording system.
Thanks, it must be Butterfield, I always forget the name because he was none of the biggies everybody is aware of re: Watergate.
Just cause something is a bad idea doesn’t mean they aren’t going to do it. If the war continues they are going to have to clear the Strait. That would mean focusing on decimating the southeast coast of Iran until it’s possible to land a ground force to push north. No need for regime change is the US can control the coast.This is pie in the sky considering the terrain and being outnumbered but I’d bet it’s in the planning stage. Would suck to be a US soldier right now.
We can’t clear the Strait. Every military expert who has looked at this has not only said that it is beyond the US’ means, but an attempt would create a mass casualty event.
That doesn’t mean they won’t try though. And there were lots of military experts who said an invasion of Iraq would be a disaster in the short term for the USA. Whereas the initial invasion was a cakewalk.
Now this is different. But it doesn’t mean they don’t think they can pull it off.
Please get a grip.
1. Iran is winning now.
2. I was paying attention then and do not recall anyone (save at most a tiny fringe) who predicted the 2003 invasion would be a disaster.
3. Iran is nearly 4x as big as Iraq and heavily mountainous while Iraq is as flat as a pancake.
4. The US military is a shadow of what it was in 2003
5. It would take 6 months+ to get the logistics for an invasion in place
6. ISR and drones have democratized warfare. Iran has multiple types of hypersonic missiles. We have none. Iran has more and better drones than we do. We could not even beat the Houthis, FFS.
An invasion would be (at best) putting two hands into an Iranian buzzsaw.
I was a contractor for USArmy programs close to logistics (retirement gig) March 2003. I heard no one worry about invading Iraq.
We had been no fly zone and sanctions on Iraq since 1992!
That said grabbing a small section of the mountainous coast would be like grabbing Monte Casino in WW II, or busting through past 38 paraellel in Korea 1953. Bloody grind.
I’m not sure why I have to get a grip. All I’m saying is that just because it will most likely be a disaster doesn’t mean they won’t try. You have been posting lots of articles and links to people saying an air campaign would be a disaster and they still did that. If anything things going badly probably increases the chances of them doing something very reckless.
See my reply to redleg below.
I think that David has a point. Everyone with US or NATO military evidence understands that it’s a fool’s errand to try, but the chain of command is currently filled with fools.
I think that the US “leadership” is dumb enough to attempt such a masterpiece without the appropriate and necessary buildup. This administration is utterly incompetent and the flag officers give no indication that they have the courage and wisdom to say no, or even “not yet”.
As indicated. we don’t have the logistics. We can’t keep troops supplied with ammo, food, or even water.
Ritter in a new interview on Counterpunch says the troop call-up as to secure bases and embassies. We pointed out the bases are at risk of being looted.
The navy refused to execute the idea of breaking the Strait of Hormuz blockage. They will refuse to go in in anything bigger than special forces #a w/o many many many months of pre-positioning supplies. War will be over beforr then.
The military also refused Trump’s order to pull out of Afghanistan. So 2x we know of.
They are obviously going to do something with the 82 nd airborne. Since they think this is an episode of the A Team anything is possible but the only thing I can think of, landing in Iran opposite Kargh Island will be impossible to resupply, let alone enough airfields since as General Miley says their logistics are now based on India to give the carriers time to dodge missiles.
This also makes it a mistake for Russia to supply oil to India, it will go towards US logistics out of India.
“Team America: Return to Kargh Island”
I’ll pay extra for IMAX ;)
Larry Johnson says it will take three weeks for them to be ready to deploy.
This War has already been won and Trump is planning his triumphant ticker tape parade through downtown Caracas, or maybe Jerusalem or maybe Tehran or Moscow, one of those places…..
And building his Triumphant Arch is back on schedule now that McDonald’s has been given a no bid cost plus contract to build it, they have a lot of experience in building Golden Arches.
So much winning it’s unbelievable!
Hooray! How much will tickets cost to attend the ceremonies? Payable personally to the glorious emperor himself of course. Maybe Ellison, Singer, Adelson et al. can chip in as well.
Iran reported that U$S Abraham Lincoln was driven away from the Iranian coast…or maybe it’s just coming back to San Diego for Trump’s very own “mission accomplished” moment!
Every time someone mentions that arch I have visions of Spinal Tap.
I can’t read it since I don’t subscribe and didn’t bother getting a free account, but the WSJ says that Iran’s underground missile bases are turning out to be a mistake— supposedly the Americans and Israelis hover around and pick them off as they come outside to shoot. I saw this at the Lawyersgunsmoney blog. They hate this war as much as we do ( I won’t get into their other views) but on the military side of things they tend to believe the mainstream Western narrative. One of their bloggers is a professor in something or other but it amounts to military history or national security or whatnot.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-underground-missiles-59b3492c?mod=e2fb&fbclid=IwY2xjawQX3k1leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFReDRtY1dRMDV0dGQ4dVkyc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHnkT7Nf3bXKSUoG65UEahf1kuSmconUx8Vkn1O6h_2ra2ew_KbJppEU5Dl78_aem_sxlZm1nYH6s9Kk-v68zmtg
I have no idea myself— with both this war and Ukraine I tend to think the truth lies somewhere in- between the mainstream press and the alternative press when it comes to these purely military matters. That is, it makes sense to me that both sides in most wars do boneheaded things, many things don’t go anccording to plan and the winner is the side which can absorb the consequences best.
This is “Russia is running out of missles” level propaganda
1. The bunkers are so deeply in the mountains that they can’t be taken out even with bunker busters. And we have not gotten bunker busters in.
2. Wilkerson has gone through that we can’t hit targets precisely at standoff range which is where we are firing from
3. The entrances are indistinguishable from the terrain, covered with dirt or sand.
4. There is one video of one supposedly being hit with a big kaboom. No evidence of what it was. Iran friendlies have said it was a decoy, which would be a lot of stuff wasted for show. Could have been fuel storage. No proof it was a bunker.
What are “we” seeing the launchers with?
Satellites talking to the fighter or to AWACS (satcom receiver/processor too big for fighter aircraft)? Then how fast, discrete, accurate the targeting to weapon?
Drones carrying either AESA radar or electro-optic packages that weigh hundreds of pounds and drone comms a problems…. Flying airborne repeater network. Pretty heavy for MQ 9. Imply Global Hawk/Triton drone. Has to be line of sight.
How accurate, timely, enough bang in stand off missile to matter?
I think hunting SCUDs is a low yield asset heavy enterprise.
Ritter said that Schwarzkopf claimed that Iraq had only 19 missile launchers. Ritter later noticed that the military had claimed that 164 had been taken out. He was in a position to investigate, so he did. After a night’s work he determined that what had been taken out was fuel tankers…no launchers taken out. Ritter said he then got fired for his efforts!
[I expect to have gotten the exact numbers wrong, but you get the gist of it.]
Ritter said this is SOP for battle damage assessments.
For exact data from Ritter’s account, the source is here:
https://consortiumnews.com/2026/03/06/watch-cn-live-us-in-denial-w-scott-ritter/
A Youtube video by Patarames claims the missile cities can take several nuclear blasts and they have equipment inside to create new openings for the missiles.
They are based on the original design by US nuclear forces, deemed too expensive at the time.
“That is, it makes sense to me that both sides in most wars do boneheaded things…”
Yes, indeed.
I was glad to read this, though it may or may not be sincere. In any case, insurance only helps after the insured article has been destroyed. So it doesn’t seem like a cure-all for anything, or a reason to take risky behaviors like transiting the strait of Hormuz during wartime. I’ve been surprised how much emphasis has been placed in the information system on whether or not insurance is available. Seems very callous.
On another subject, it’s my understanding that many of the things that are being shut down as a result of the strait of Hormuz closure cannot just be started up again at the flick of a switch. Oil fields, pipelines, and refineries apparently can take weeks or months to restart regardless of how long they have been shut down. So in many ways the duration of the seaway closure is no longer material to the extent of the disruption. I would like to hear more about this and understand it better.
and also, how feasible would it be to quickly build additional storage facilities for oil and LNG? The images of chinese hospitals being built during the pandemic spring to mind. I would guess you would want to get that started too
Being a captain of even a small craft is a serious responsibility. Before you sail: are there enough enough life vests and floatation devices; what are the weather conditions for the duration of the sail; are the waters treacherous; do my passengers know anything about their responsibilities on the water?
Being the Cappy of an ocean going vessel magnifies your responsibilities a thousand times, and for most captains alive today, navigating war-torn waters is a peril that was never on their safety check-list. Worst off are the helmsmen stuck in the Persian Gulf with loaded vessels. Whatever their cargo it is becoming more valuable by the day…valuable somewhere beyond the Straights of Hormuz.
Dozens if not scores of ship owners have their eyes glazing over at the fabulous surplus to made off just one shipment. They don’t want to lose their ship. They don’t want to lose this cash. Will any kind of insurance due? How do I possibly calculate opportunity costs in wartime? I’m losing money everyday. Is time a bigger enemy than the Iranians?
Make the right move and it’s a potential bonanza. Make the wrong move and everybody sleeps with Davy Jones.
Moar epic Chinese trolling:
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/176354#
Another nail in the coffin of empire … when your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt … but do record for posterity.
The image is of Atlanta Hartsfield airport, ATL.
Guessing oil prices on assumption strait remains closed:
(Inflation adjusted to today)
June 2008 avg was 208/b, yo-yo-ing down to nearly 80 then back to 100,, then rising gradually to 120 over a few years – maybe responding to inflation? – before falling back to 60-70, maybe responding to new supply.
So seems market could maintain 120 back then for a few years.
But imo the bottom 50% is closer to the edge today and would step away sooner.
Otoh, 20 mb/day is a huge cut, and excess capacity, reportedly in saudi and emirates, is locked behind the straits. Perhaps higher incomes will have to step aside. 150?
Otoh, Russia maybe has excess? But are they ready to sell to eu without eu surrender?
Imo we will see new monthly records pretty soon if us doesn’t pry it open.
Also, us navy not much use if other side has decent missiles/drones, and that stuff getting bette/cheaper. Saudi and many others (in americas?) maybe taking notes.
Hyperliquid (crypto exchange) USOIL-USDH oil futures are at $116.45 per barrel currently. Tomorrow will be interesting to watch price action.
Some delicious cope:
Israeli officials float ‘slow collapse’ scenario for Iran, say ‘cracks’ forming in regime – report | Times of Israel
quote:
Also there is a lot more public movement on the international deescalation front that is breaking through, see these other headlines from ToI:
– Qatari PM says he will seek de-escalation with Iran, in Sky News interview
– Iranian President Pezeshkian pledges investigation of drone incident to Azerbaijan leader
– Russian, UAE foreign ministers seek end to attacks on Iran, Gulf states — Russian ministry
– Trump speaks with UAE president, Emirati state media says
– Report: Witkoff, Kushner coming to Israel as US irked over scope of strikes on Iran’s oil depots
Reality slowly dawning on a lot of people?
Interesting. Diplomacy in play. Not fair!
Funnily, “slow collapse” is exactly what people say will happen to Israel before long, if it keeps on this path. Which, given the widespread support of genocide by its population (minus the Palestinian minority), seems all but certain.
So much winning
Oil Prices Surge Above $100 a Barrel for the First Time in Almost Four Years (NY Times)
Trump is gonna be toast.
Scoop: U.S. dismayed by Israel’s Iran fuel strikes, sources say
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/08/us-dismayed-israel-iran-fuel-strikes
____________________
I’m back. Had to drive into town today and panic-buy at Costco. All set now.
“Good cop dismayed by bad cop’s disregard for law, sources say.” 🤡
Yup, I drove today, topped off the “beater” after leaving the nursing home. Used gas buddy; here in the rural outback, SW, Ore-gone, PNW; USA. Living at the South END of the State for petroleum deliveries…Just, what 4.19/gallon…Riding the e-bike 15+ miles 2/3 times a week, for provisions is the new normal as I push into my 7th decade. All the best.
Hey! That’s Our Oil!
Syria’s Kurds caution Iran’s Kurds against aligning with US against Tehran
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrias-kurds-caution-irans-kurds-against-aligning-with-us-against-tehran-2026-03-08/
Brent Crude at $106 (as of Monday 06:40 Indochina time)
Trump on Truth Social (definitely not panicking!!!)
Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!President DJT
—-
The “send in special forces to secure the Uranium” idea must look awfully appealing right now. Idiotic, unfeasible, madness (I think), but appealing nonetheless. It would (if it wasn’t impossible) give Trump an off-ramp.
Do they even know where it is? I doubt it or they would have bombed it already.
Agreed. Trump is an idiot, surrounded by idiots though.
Consider a hypothetical order of events:
1. Trump: we gotta get the Uranium, get me some intelligence
2. (a bit later) aides: We’re not really sure, but there’s a rumour it’s in Xxx, hidden in a flock of wild geese. We have low confidence in this.
3. Trump: Petey, can your guys get in/out of the wild goose area?
4. Hegseth: yessir, we can do anything, we have God on our side
5. Caine: Sir, I’m not sure…
6. Trump: Dan, you’re always being such a p*ssy! You should be more like Petey.
7. Trump: Send in the handsome men!!
I just mentioned this to a friend. His reply:
Sounds like DJT is doubling down, though tomorrow he may forget everything he said today.
vix is up to 29.49 too as I type this
Crude is at $107 on Reuters. Filled my tank in Central NYS Wednesday morning for $3.09, 2 hous later it was $3.19, then $3.39 Friday. Gonna be $4 this week. The owners of monster pickups with huge tires are gonna be upset. $5 will be a watershed event.
$3.49 just outside Chicago …filled up today.
Good information.
Ted Postol: Fraud of Missile Defence Exposed in Iran War – Glenn Diesen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbQI_IYz6uM
Key phrase – technological disparity …
Yes, that was useful. TL:DR countermeasures such as maneuverable boost stage, passive and active decoys, etc, make it very difficult to intercept missiles. Prof Postol has been arguing this for decades and expresses exasperation that the warnings have not been heeded.
There was also an interesting segment on use of low-cost off-shelf technology to convert long-range drones into FPV-style remotely piloted munitions, which would allow terminal guidance. (Not mentioned, IIRC, but one would think this would be bad news for naval vessels within range of Iranian drones. Postol did not assert that Iranian drones are currently using human terminal guidance by this means, but simply that it would not be difficult to do this at low cost)
I would add that Postol says it takes around 12+ videos of attempted intercepts to find one actual intercept e.g. just seeing one mid air explosion does not denote an intercept = small explosion vs a large explosion for a successful intercept. Plus how THAAD et al is basically useless due to flight time and missiles with maneuver ability is long gone by the time they arrive. Basically the probability algos barf ….
That from Postol was solid. Thank you.
So we now know with certainty that Iran has effective use of real-time data from both the Chinese and Russian satellite and radar observation/targeting networks — and Postol’s point about how relatively simple, cheap weapons like drones can become capable of unprecedented targeting specificity because of that is correct — and we also have increasingly certain knowledge that the Iranians have successfully targeted and blinded 4-5 of the main US radar installations, as forex —
Iranian Strikes Have Destroyed $2.7 Billion Worth of High Value U.S. Anti-Missile Radars
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iranian-strikes-destroyed-antimissile-radars
Footage Confirms Iranian Drone Strike Took Out U.S. Army’s Most High Value Air Defence Radar From THAAD System
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iranian-drone-destroy-radar-thaad
So this is is a situation where Iran has nearly complete and instant battlespace oversight whereas the US-Israel in many areas have only a minute’s warning when something is incoming, which means in turn that Iran has the capability to fairly reliably destroy any replacement installations the U.S. brings in and attempts to set up. All through history, that’s already a losing proposition. But then add to that, this…
Footage Shows U.S. Patriot Air Defences Repeatedly Fail to Hit Iranian Ballistic Missiles
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/footage-us-patriot-fail-repeated
And this …
Iran Launches First Ever Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Strike: New Fattah-2 Missile Revolutionises Arsenal’s Potential
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/iran-launches-first-hypersonic-glide-strike-fattah2
And this …
The U.S. Has Burned Through Over $2.4 Billion Worth of Patriot Missile Interceptors in Just Five Days of War with Iran
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-patriot-interceptors-five-days-iran
“Reports from multiple Western sources confirmed on March 5 that the United States Army has expended over 800 anti-ballistic missiles from MIM-104 Patriot long range air defence systems during just five days of hostilities with Iran … This exceeds the total estimated number of Patriot interceptors launched throughout the entire Russian-Ukrainian War….”
Appreciate the collection.
technological disparity
Some time recently I heard Michael Hudson relating something like a parable, the parable of the fancy wine. I won’t be able to find it to quote it properly but the gist was…
A rich man wants to impress his guests so he buys some expensive old French wine. At the event they open it up, pour it and taste it and Yuck, it’s no good, the wine has gone bad. The host consults his supplier to complain and is told this is not wine for drinking, it is wine for investing.
And so it is when allies buy American weapons. The aren’t supposed to be used, their purpose is dollar recycling and showing off.
Here is 45-odd minutes of footage of Israeli war damage, compiled by Electronic Intifada. HT to Craig Murray via Richard Medhurst.
https://nitter.poast.org/jonelmer/status/2029994609707778211#m
I have only skipped through it so far but it is good to have a summary in one place, to see how badly things are going for the Axis of Epstein.
Pairs well with the Postal link above, calls Bibi a homicidal maniac, points out how useless western sams are and why, how DOD was made aware of the potential and how it would change everything in a conflict. With the worst on offer if things continue.
More “war could be coming to an end soon” signals?
Further to raspberry jam’s comment above showing Israel moving the goalposts for what victory looks like.
If they are believed, the IRGC brought out the bigger guns last night. Several stories about damage/impacts in Israel in TOI.
Trump to Times of Israel: It’ll be a ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu regarding when Iran war ends (ToI)
[BP: note: Trump’s use of past tense. ]
US President Donald Trump told The Times of Israel on Sunday that a decision on when to end the war with Iran will be a “mutual” one that he’ll make together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump also asserted in the brief telephone interview that the Islamic Republic would have destroyed Israel if he and Netanyahu had not been around. “Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it… We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel.”
The US president was asked whether he alone would decide when the war with Iran ends or if Netanyahu would also have a say.
“I think it’s mutual… a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account,” he responded, indicating that while Netanyahu will have input, the US president will have the final say.
Asked whether Israel could continue the war against Iran even after the US decides to halt its strikes, Trump declined to entertain the theoretical possibility before adding: “I don’t think it’s going to be necessary.”
—-
64 million shekel question: If US/Israel just declare victory and the war over, what will Iran do?
Keep fighting.
Until the US is out of the Middle East ands Israel is defanged, anything less will just lead to a repeat of this war. Neither the US or Israel can be trusted.
Maybe reduce attacks? But I’ve read that after trump stopped fighting on the 12 -day event last June the guard wanted to continue but ayatollah said stop. But harder people likely in charge now.
Even if they stop that doesn’t necessarily open Hormuz. Maybe need sanctions ended, noting if theyre reimposed the strait closes again.
Their foreign minister stated it clearly in his interview on US Sunday morning television: There is presently no basis for a cease fire. They went along last time, negotiated in good faith and were again attacked. This time is different.
My take: when they think Israel and the US have sufficiently suffered Iran will be willing to discuss its terms. Maybe when we have stopped saying things like Iran launched a surprise attack on their own school. When we appear credible. Might help if a few of the biggest war mongers had decided to spend more time with their families.
Especially as their new Supreme Leader saw what happened last time they tried to be reasonable:
The negotiating partners murdered his father, and several other members of his family, including women and a tiny little girl.
I wouldn’t be in a compromising state of mind after that.
Touché. Very dry.
Above my paygrade to parse either the veracity or implications but, seems like a bad idea:
(From yesterday):
https://nitter.net/rinsana/status/2030506650524692978
The Treasury reportedly plans to short oil futures next week to drive down energy prices. If oil infrastructure in the ME is badly damaged, Gulf States shut in production & the Strait remains closed, prices will blow through their shorts, potentially causing losses of taxpayer $!
—
Brent Crude skyrocketing. $118.5 at time of posting.
prices will blow through their shorts
now there’s a mental picture.
Depends….
So Bessent is an idiot.
Shorting does not lower prices. The short providing bearish analysis lowers prices.
A short is a commitment to buy, albeit later. Prices rising leads to short covering, amplifying the price increase.
As someone who has no idea how markets work, other than a deep suspicion that everything is rigged, can you explain how, on the futures market, the price of oil has dropped from $118 a barrel on Sunday to $101 as of 11:50 Monday morning (EU time)? Is it because of Bessent’s short? How has it been successful? Does it go back to my ignorant belief that everything is rigged? In other words, Bessent may be an idiot, but it doesn’t really matter if it’s his fingers on the buttons. Genuinely asking how oil futures are falling despite there being no logic behind it.
By the way, I’m noticing a similar pattern in the Dow futures this morning. The market will be consistently down 700 pts. for a couple of hours, then within a matter of 2-3 minutes, the downturn will be cut in half to only -350 pts. In the few minutes it’s taken me to write this comment, futures went from -600 pts to -500 pts. It seems like there’s a mysterious buyer seriously determined to prop up the market. I don’t know if these two things are related, but they both seem to be defying the expectations of a “rational” market. Maybe I’ve been wearing my tinfoil hat too long…
No, the reason is in the headline, the expectation of a strategic reserves release. Buy on rumor, sell on fact.
A short operationally NEVER lowers prices. This is bullshit presented by stock touts. A short forces a later securities purchase.
The mechanism by which shorting theoretically lowers prices is the information content: the information shorts publicize in connection with their action (see Lehman as a prime example) and some investors may see the conviction of the shorts in going short (very risky, you are exposed to unlimited losses) as reason to stop buying the security and maybe even sell.
On a slightly less serious note–
You know, if Trump is required to go to Iran and approve the Assembly of Experts’ choice of Supreme Leader, we would do well to not let him back into USia. In fact, instead of requiring the Iranians to declare their complete surrender, we might just want to require giving Trump Iranian citizenship. That alone should lead to their eventual (1 day – 1 week) defeat.
I’m only afraid we would have to accept either Vance or Harris as our next, well, Ayatollah.
It must take a special kind of Kool-aid to keep up the high levels of delusion, derangement and belligerence that the US & its Israeli overlords maintain – in the face of overwhelming evidence that refutes their claims.
How do they maintain such high levels?
My guess is a combination of real madness, religious fervour, ideological fervour, genuine ignorance, willful ignorance [head in sand], and other major psychological & emotional conditions. And, of course, the usual supply of alcohol and drugs, and perhaps other ‘recreational’ [Epstein-type] pursuits!
I hope someone suitably qualified is doing a careful study of this behaviour, and will publish their findings in due course. If they are, then I hope also that they can create a framework of tests and examinations that ALL elected representatives must pass in order to take office.
The survival of the western world depends on it!
Don’t forget the stratospheric levels of arrogance and self-importance at being the chosenites slash “stable genius”.
George Galloway says the King of Bahrain has fled and that Bahrain is about to become an Islamic Republic.
At about 8:30: https://youtu.be/sgMlRShuv4M
I see nothing of the kind on Twitter, which includes breaking news updates from Aljazeera.
I did see it mentioned 8-9 hours ago in X, but it did not seem reliable nor was there any verification.
Fair enough. Galloway does go a bit far sometimes.
We’ll see.
Richard Medhurst: https://www.youtube.com/live/_86L8xhybbs?si=UQ0tFCF00lHMlv7r
He is great and very thorough but, crikey, there is nearly 5 hours of this.
A LOT of detail.