[This Iran war post is launching again before complete. It is not likely to be done before 8:30 AM EDT. Please FIRST AND FOREMOST go to our must-read submission by Kevin Kirk, on Israel’s nuclear weapons program. Please circulate that article widely. When you then return to our update, feel free to comment straight away, but do refresh your browsers and re-skim at 8:30 AM]
An important development in the last day or two in the Iran war are increasing actual and de-facto media admissions that Iran is succeeding in inflicting considerable economic and kinetic pain and Western efforts to blunt it are not having much effect. For instance, live blog headlines at major media outlets would be sure to put Israel strikes first, and either not mention Iran action or put it second. We’ll soon turn to the conditions that are driving that recognition, such as the pretty-much non-existent prospects for forcing Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran continuing to escalate on the battlefield as it depletes US, Israel, and Gulf state missile defenses. Moreover, even the icon of statecraft prognostications, Foreign Affairs, has published Iran’s Drone Advantage which we will discuss soon.
Consider the Bloomberg banner headline as 6:45 AM EDT:
The Wall Street Journal:
Admittedly, there is a noteworthy lack of agency at the BBC:
In terms of oil prices resuming their upward trajectory, perhaps Mr. Market took note of the IRCG having vowed to drive the price of crude to $200 a barrel. They have delivered on their earlier commitments. From the BBC live feed mid-morning yesterday:
Iran says it won’t allow ‘a single litre of oil’ to pass through Strait of Hormuz
Iran says its policy for reciprocal strikes “has ended”, a spokesman for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters says in a statement.
Tehran’s policy now will be “strike upon strike,” spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari says.
Tehran will “not allow even a single litre of oil” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach the US, Israel and their partners, Zolfaqari adds. “Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target.”
“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised,” the spokesman adds.
A meaningful development in the past day is that (as mentioned by John Mearsheimer in a new talk with Chris Hedges) is that Iran, which had been hitting US bases and other targets in the Gulf, had been attacking Israel much less fiercely than in the 12 Day War. The IRGC said it would turn its attention more to Israel now. See the contrast between the two videos below. The France 24 one has the reporter describing how in most of Israel (one assumes ex Tel Aviv, where there have been reports of a fair bit of damage), Iran seems to be sending in drones and missiles at almost leisurely pacing, with the intent of keeping Israels mainly in shelters, disrupting economic life, and fraying their nerves. Also be sure to listen to her detail a new political scandal:
Hindustan Times describes how Iran has considerably intensified its strikes into Israel and how its attacks are now on concert with Hezbollah:
To the concern of most of the world, about energy and goods supplies from the Gulf, Sal Mercagliano describes how there is no relief in sight. He mentions that vessels are still transiting the Strait daily but oddly does not indicate that most if not all are Iranian (a point made by Mearsheimer, Iranian ships, natch, are still able to go in and out). He also mentions the US insurance scheme as if it was making a difference in insurers offer war risk coverage, when that seems unlikely to be much of a factor (see S&P explaining why there are well-warranted doubts about it). He offers many important observations, such as that fuel for ships is set to become scarce and carriers will be applying surcharges to cover the higher cost:
Janta Ka focuses on Iran’s destruction of two American oil tankers:
To continue with kinetic war considerations: Mearsheimer mentioned that the US looked set to continue up the escalation ladder even though that will only lead to worse outcomes. Iran has already said it is abandoning its approach of retaliatory strikes (that seems to be the result of the Tehran refinery attack which releases noxious fumes all over the city) and will engage in freer fire. The US hit the data center of the state bank Tehran during business hours, killing staff; the apparent military excuse was that it processed salary payments to IRCG members. Iran quickly threatened American banks in the Gulf region with strikes. Mearsheimer warned that the US, which so far has checked Israel in striking Iran desalination plants and petroleum facilities, might recklessly start hitting them. Needless to say, Israel and the family dictatorships are far more vulnerable to retaliatory attacks.
If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war.
But leaving in place Iran’s theocratic regime—angry, defiant and in possession of its nuclear stockpile and what remains of its arsenal of missiles and drones—would essentially grant Tehran control over the world’s energy markets. It would also sacrifice the security of America’s partners and allies, and possibly make another, more devastating, regional war likely.
On other aspects of the kinetic war. An open question is to what extent the US can operate from its 27 bases in the region. Note that the term “base” is used liberally; some might be more accurately called installations. It is above my pay grade to know how many can be used to launch attacks, as opposed to serving in more of a support capacity, say for logistics. As we described, Richard Medhurst had assembled photos of many of them showing how Iran was hitting them repeatedly, with Medhurst saying they were being reduced to dust.
The New York Times published an interactive feature on March 11, 2026 that analyzes damage to US military and related sites in the Middle East amid the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. It uses high-resolution commercial satellite imagery (from sources like Airbus DS and Planet Labs), verified social media videos, and official statements from US officials and Iranian state media to document at least 17 damaged US sites (including bases hosting US forces, air defense infrastructure, and diplomatic facilities). The analysis is current as of March 10, 2026, and highlights Iran’s retaliatory strikes—thousands of missiles and drones—launched in response to the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran that began around late February 2026.
Iran’s attacks began shortly after the conflict’s start (e.g., February 28 onward) and targeted 13 sites in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, and Iraq:
Kuwait: Multiple strikes on Ali Al Salem Air Base (March 1), Camp Arifjan (March 4), Shuaiba port (March 2, killing six U.S. service members with partial roof collapse visible in satellite images), and Camp Buehring (March 5, drone explosion near sports facilities with no casualties).
Bahrain: U.S. Navy 5th Fleet HQ struck (February 28/March 1), including damage to a communications radome shown in verified video.
Saudi Arabia: Prince Sultan Air Base (March 1), with one U.S. service member killed.
Qatar: Al Udeid Air Base (March 9) and Umm Dahal radar site (damage to AN/FPS-132 radar).
UAE: Al Dhafra Air Base (March 3), Jebel Ali port (March 1), Al Ruwais (near THAAD unit), and Al Sader facilities.
Jordan: Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (March 4), with severe damage to air defense sensors.
Iraq: Erbil Airport (March 1).
Other: Strikes reached as far as Turkey (NATO intercepted missiles aimed at Incirlik Air Base on March 4, which Iran denied).
Some bases (e.g., Al Udeid, Ali Al Salem, Al Dhafra) were hit multiple times. Diplomatic targets included the U.S. consulate in Dubai and embassies in Kuwait City, Riyadh, and Baghdad (rocket attack on March 8, no casualties confirmed).
While US CENTCOM continues to insist that Iran has done little damage, the reality is that Iran has crippled the ability of the US to launch and sustain combat operations from the bases and installations listed above.
As indicated in the opening section, none other than the august Foreign Affairs is raising alarms about Iran’s drone prowess in Iran’s Drone Advantage . Key points:
The idea that the United States, the world’s preeminent military power, would copy Iranian technology would have seemed fantastical just a few years ago. And yet, the Shahed-136, after being sold to Russia for use against Ukraine, was captured and studied by the U.S. military, improved on and produced by a small company in Arizona, and is now being used against Iranian targets. For its part, Tehran has unleashed a wave of Shahed-136 drones across the Middle East as part of its response to Washington’s Operation Epic Fury. The drones have struck buildings in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, and even the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia. Although the size of Tehran’s remaining stockpile of drones is unclear, their sweeping deployment has become a critical element of the Iranian strategy for retaliation and proves that the character of war has changed.
Indeed, the United States’s adversaries have much to teach it in this new era. Although Washington still leads in the development and deployment of sophisticated capabilities, such as fighter jets, tanks, and cruise missiles, Iran, Russia, and Ukraine are ahead in the development and deployment of low-cost, increasingly autonomous drones for surveillance, as well as for short-range and long-range strikes. Washington now recognizes the need for these systems, but it has yet to take the steps necessary to manufacture them at scale. Moscow has a daily target of producing up to 1,000 Geran-2 drones this year. Washington could start churning out similar numbers of LUCAS drones in a matter of months, but only if it makes the necessary policy changes and investments….
Washington’s interest in Iran’s Shahed-136 is unusual and, in some respects, unprecedented. Although U.S. scientists have long striven to acquire adversaries’ military technology—racing to recover the wrecks of Soviet aircraft, for instance, or purchasing Chinese technology from third parties—the purpose was not to copy it. Rather, Washington generally acquired an adversary’s technology to learn how to defeat them. Over the last 80 years, there have been only a handful of examples of the U.S. military constructing and fielding its own version of a foreign capability.
The success of the drones in the Iran war is serving as an overdue wake-up call. Russia is ahead of the US in many critical arms categories, such as air defense, signal jamming and hypersonic missiles. Yet it is the pummeling Iran is inflicting with relatively cheap drones, with its Shahed’s the modern analogy to the AK-47, that is forcing the US out of its assumptions of its superiority, in no small measure rooted in bigotry.
But as the conflict extends toward a third week, the US war effort is showing unexpected signs of strain against an adversary whose military budget is smaller than the GDP of Vermont — but which has an arsenal of missiles and drones unlike anything the US has ever faced…
Iran spent years building its missile and drone arsenals, spreading them around the country and concealing them. Some of its sophisticated ballistic missiles — perfected with designs and technology from China, Russia and North Korea — have broken through US allies’ defenses across the region….
The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been struck by several ballistic missiles and Shaheds, a rare and expensive early warning radar in Qatar was destroyed, and the radar for a $300 million THAAD battery — the most advanced ground-based mobile missile defense system in the US inventory — was hit in Jordan…
Before the war, Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles, with ranges from a few hundred kilometers to more than 2,000. So far, it’s fired about 700. ..
Estimates of Iran’s Shahed inventory vary widely. More than 2,100 Shaheds have been fired so far, according to Bloomberg reporting. US and Israeli air strikes have reduced the country’s ability to produce more, but stockpiles remain and manufacturing them requires no complex components….
The result: The US and its partners in the Gulf most likely burned through well over 1,000 PAC-3 interceptors alone. That’s almost twice the annual production of the weapons and more than the US and its allies have supplied to Ukraine since the Russian invasion four years ago, according to Kyiv. Officials there have been astonished at Gulf states deploying PAC-3s to bring down low-cost drones….
The Defense Department is spending $93 million to replace as many as 10 SM-6 naval air defense missiles. Another $225 million is set aside to increase production of both those and SM-3 missile interceptors, made by RTX Corp’s Raytheon unit, from 96 to 360 annually. But that will take years. After years of underfunding missile purchases, not all the money for the added capacity has yet been approved by Congress.
US Uses Costly Munitions in Iran Campaign
Source: US Defense Department; Bloomberg reporting
In addition to running down supplies of interceptors, Iranian strikes have also taken a toll on the radars and other equipment used to direct them. One attack damaged a radar for a THAAD, an air-defense system of which the US has only 8 deployed around the world. The radar that was hit in Jordan is the first such loss in combat.
On the economic front, we and many others have discussed the considerable downsides of higher cost and scarcer oil, LNG, and fertilizer. But we also mentioned that other oil-related inputs were critical for commerce and mentioned chemicals, in particular sulphuric acid. Readers cleared up a misperception I had about where and how critical sulphuric acid is in comments yesterday. As Revenant explained:
With my pinstriped labcoat on (chemist and VC), sulphuric acid is essential to the manufacture of just about everything:
– it is a strong acid for working with materials of all stripes and stages, from ore to finished product, and for providing acid conditions in chemical engineering, e.g. for catalysis.
– it is a strong oxidant for synthesising chemicals where you need to change oxidation state, either of the product at interim or final steps or of the other reagents (i.e. generating an active reagent in situ).
– it is the starting material for various sulphur-containing functional groups that are important in synthetic organic chemistry, either for their properties in the final product or their properties at interim steps (protecting groups, leaving groups etc.).
Without sulphuric acid, industrial life stops. Sulphuric acid production depends both on petrochemical energy and on sourcing sulphur from oil and gas refining.
For that matter, hydrochloric and nitric acid are equally fundamental, as is caustic soda (sodium hydroxide, a base). The nitric acid supply chain is linked to ammonia production which is dependent on natural gas production. Nitric acid has similar uses, bit different in specifics, to sulphuric acid.
Provided you have energy and equipment (assume a tin opener), hydrochloric acid and sodium hydroxide can be had from the electrolysis of brine and are less directly affected by oil and gas market disruption. They are not oxidising and are not such versatile sources of functional groups in synthesis but still very important in creating appropriate reaction conditions.
The cost of jet fuel is skyrocketing, and the prices paid to refineries to process crude into fuel is higher than the cost of oil itself.
Tens of thousands of flights across the Middle East have been canceled, and air traffic re-routed to avoid Persian Gulf airspace.
Air travel to the Middle East is highly profitable to airlines, because of the revenue mix from upper-income tourists and business travel.
Western airlines were already at a competitive disadvantage to carriers in East Asia, because of the Russia problem: Asian airlines overfly Russia, saving operations costs and time, while carriers in the US, Canada, and Europe take far longer routes around Russian airspace.
Note one part of his article is not quite right:
Some carriers have resumed limited operations, but the priority is getting out travelers already stranded, and expatriation flights of diplomats and their families.
Emirates has very clearly said passengers with existing bookings have priority if their flights are running. They are not bumping booked passengers for evacuating passengers. had the same thing happen when I was a volcano refugee in London in 2010. Had to wait not just for flights to go out but also for a seat to open up. Admittedly, some carriers may be bumping booked passengers to get the stranded out.
Note the US majors stopped fuel hedging. Oopise! From the Financial Times:
Four of the biggest US airlines risk paying an extra $11bn for jet fuel this year after their decision not to hedge their expected purchases left them exposed to soaring prices triggered by the Iran conflict.
The price of US jet fuel has soared almost 60 per cent since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, hitting $3.95 a gallon late last week, according to the Argus US Jet Fuel index, which measures daily spot prices at American aviation hubs.
We had expressed concerns about aluminum supplies in an earlier post. There has been some relief on that front. From the Bloomberg live feed:
Qatar Aluminum no longer plans to fully shut down its smelter in the country, and will instead maintain operations at about 60% of capacity after confirmation that the plant will continue to receive gas from its supplier.
Qatalum had begun a controlled shutdown of the facility on March 3 after QatarEnergy said it was going to suspend gas supply. Aluminum prices have surged since the conflict in Iran began, with smelters facing disruptions to outbound sales of metals and incoming raw materials.
All for today. See you tomorrow! Updates in comments.
No it is not a misfire. Did you not read it? I said it would be done later than usual and EXPLICITLY told you to read the nuclear weapons post first. I had to give that a careful read and a very light edit.
ilsm
Thank you for your dedication to informing us!
Pat Morrison
Thank you, Yves, as well as the commentariat.
This was my first news stop of the day long before the war, but especially so now.
What you’ve built here is rare, remarkable, and vital.
Thank you.
Curious
This can’t be said enough. Thanks Yves and team for all the work, you are an oasis of reason on the internet.
juno mas
I’ll ECHO… ECho . . . . Echoo . . . . . echooo tha a a t !!!
eg
This place has become an indispensable first stop every day for me circa Brexit. The analysis here just keeps going from strength to strength — from US elections, through Covid, Ukraine and now West Asia I’m grateful to be freed from the useless narratives endlessly parroted in the western corporate media organs. Much obliged, thanks.
An Iranian security source has told Al Jazeera that the continuing US attacks on the country might soon lead to the emergence of a fresh theatre of conflict in the region.
“The regional war will soon enter a new phase,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “As we said from the very beginning, if the United States makes such a mistake, the situation will become far more complex. Soon, another key strait will face the same fate as the Strait of Hormuz.”
The security source did not offer more details or specify which other “key strait” might next face a de facto blockade.
“Iran’s security and defensive plans are phased and gradual, and we still have many cards left to play,” the official said.
I’m going to guess they’re hinting at the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and that the Houthis might be involved. I don’t believe Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti has been hit yet, but they are within range of Iranian missiles.
Curious
Once air defenses are down, this seems like it would be on the table. The question is how does Iran make it long term a response and keep it directed at US/Israel without drawing other nations to defend their economic interests? For example, could they target all US and Israel ships given the range to the other locations? Or somehow get more weapons to Yemen?
Bugs
There are 3 bases in Djibouti – US base at the airport, a sprawling camp with its own Subway and Pizza Hut branches, the French base at Héron, which has been there longest and is a source of employment/money for the locals, and the recent Chinese base on the northeast side, which I don’t know much about but if they use the Chinese model, is likely fairly sealed off.
About 10 miles separates the Chinese base from the US one.
Italy, Japan & the KSA also have bases there. Helpful primer with maps:
My dad built navy missile launchers for a living and Djibouti was one of the places he did field work. It was at the time, and he retried 20 years ago, one of the few places where his ships could reload missiles. There is, or was, a missile loading dock there that would be a prime, fixed, militarily significant target similar to the one in Bahrain that appears to have been destroyed early in the conflict.
alfred venison
in my humble opinion the Tehran refinery attack was chemical warfare by proxy.
I can’t think of something (short of nukes) that would galvanize the population for a long conflict more than what than that attack. Israel/Us have to know that and did it for some reason.
Who Cares
They did it to get internal displacement, that is Iranian refugees inside Iran.
Both as a way to demoralize the Iranian people and to put pressure on the system to provide for those refugees. And they succeeded where bombing Tehran failed.
Rod
Yes, a deliberate war crime on everything alive by empty, ugly beings
lyman alpha blob
It was the equivalent of salting the earth. The Zionist entity may have signed its own death warrant by committing that atrocity.
JohnnyGL
That clip from the WSJ at the end seems to grab that imperial dominance is at stake. It’s funny to watch their conflicting viewpoints in which they struggle to prioritize “calm markets” v “imperial control”.
They seem to grasp how high the stakes are. A lot don’t. Many see this as ‘just another forever war’, like Iraq.
No way, there’s real power being contested.
SirSchnutenfeger
They will come down on the side of imperial control eventually, they all will.
The Rev Kev
‘Mearsheimer warned that the US, which so far has checked Israel in striking Iran desalination plants and petroleum facilities, might recklessly start hitting them.’
I’m not sure this would trouble Trump. Like with oil, he said that the US had plenty of oil and gas so were not concerned about rising oil prices as it would not effect the US much. Of course Trump’s reaction to Iran going after Israel’s desalination plants and petroleum facilities might be a bit of a coin toss. Israel really pushed him into this war so would he really be concerned if they started to get heavy blowback? Everything for him is personal so he might tell himself that it serves them right for the trouble that they got him into.
ISL
Not sure how the US survives $10+ gallon gas with its sprawling, mass transit unserved cities, and most (>60% unable to afford a $400 emergency – if people cannot afford gas to get to work, they do not work. Oh, I see, Trump cannot be troubled by a US economic collapse – but what about the other oligarchs?
SirSchnutenfeger
Contrary to the Bearded One the preservation of political and military power is it’s own reward and at the end of the day more important than all corporate profits in the world.
Even the billionaire class will agree to that. Or especially them.
Upholding the Empire’s military dominance isn’t everything, but without imperial dominance intact all else is nothing.
ilsm
I did not bookmark, but I found a response from Iran to Oman intermediary on talks.
Iran response: “Not while Israel exists”.
If this is factual, what did Trump and Bibi do?
John Merryman
I thought it interesting this hasn’t been emphasized, given the Zionist persecution complex, that along with the messianic complex is the carrot and stick driving this cult, but the possibility it could actually happen, while eliminating Iran is not, would be a reason to steer around it.
Louis Fyne
>> what extent the US can operate from its 27 bases in the region
IMO, the even bigger problem is the people/soldiers. Eg, a THAAD battery has ~100 soldiers.
Assuming for argument’s sake that the equipment stayed pristine over the past two weeks (with infinite stocks), those soldiers are tired—probably have been given micro-doses of amphetamines to stay awake. The Army does not have a “blue crew v. gold crew” rotation system (see US Navy subs) with its equipment.
Multiply this by every American air, land, sea unit in the region. Tired people = less efficiency + higher odds of self-inflicted accidents.
Apologies for being really late. Post done now. Please refresh your browsers and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
hemeantwell
Apologies are unnecessary, Yves. The work you do, along with that of the commentariat you’ve brought together, is terribly important and encouraging, in the full sense of that word.
William Beyer
There is no better one-stop commentary anywhere. Thanks for filling my days with information.
chris
Yves, You shouldn’t apologize because you haven’t done anything wrong. It seems like no one else in the US centric media space cares about accuracy or detailed analysis with respect this mess. Thanks so much for all the effort.
Irrational
Make that Western-centric media space.
John k
No need. As far as I can tell, you’re working like a dog to help all of your readers be the best able to see through the dense fog of this war. First thing I look at each day, thanks so much.
Late Introvert
Unique and very important work being done by yourself, and the commentariat. I’m so grateful for this place.
Carolinian
This site comes through and offers a few headline news type stories from the Iranian side.
And bringing proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq into the fight may be why Iran has saved the main blow against Israel for last. If it be nukes per today’s scary story then other countries will have to be nuked as well.
Of course the very name Samson Option implies that the nukes are a take revenge on the world weapon more than military. Their very use would be more Kamikaze than Clausewitz.
Kouros
are people adopting the Western identifiers? “proxies”? Hexbollah is a movement born out of Lebanon occupation, Hamas out of Palestinian occupation, Huties out of KSA interference. They are pretty much their own people and act according to their own agendas.
Carolinian
You’re right. Allies would have been the correct word.
The Rev Kev
This is definitely getting into the Mouse that Roared territory. Iran has been isolated and punished by the west for nearly half a century for the high crime of not being a vassal state and so does not have many friends. What it does have is a lot of oil which has made them a target as admitted by people like Trump and Lindsey Graham who expects to make a ton of money out of Iran. And yet this mouse of a country has not only gone toe to toe with both the US and Israel but has also gotten a choke-hold on the world’s economy to the point that we could easily see a world wide-recession if this war keeps up. And they do not even have a “Q” bomb. At the same time they are demilitarizing the US and Israel of whole classes of advanced weaponry and if it keeps up, we might see a nasty outbreak of peace when this is all over.
JohnH
Mouse that roared, or David and Goliath, one of Zionists’ foundational stories?
Oregon Lawhobbit
Queue (Q?) up the joke about the most important body organ.
With Iran shutting lots of things down, the consequences are severe.
vao
We know that North Korea sent about a brigade to a division to Russia, where its soldiers participated in repulsing the Ukrainian offensive on Kursk. This enabled the North Korean army to acquire valuable know-how about how military units deal with a modern war characterized by drone-infested battlefields, systematic interdiction by artillery, unforeseeable mining, infiltration by small units, and so on.
The companion article recommended by Yves as a preliminary reading to this one mentions that North Korea is suspected to have developed an atomic bomb for Iran, which should already have been paid for and is waiting for a rather difficult and improbable delivery.
Which makes me think: could North Korea — which heaped official abuse on Israel and the USA for starting the war — have dispatched some observers to Tehran in order to learn how to wage a missile war?
hk
They would be remiss if they didn’t: there are many characteristics their militaries share–heavy dependence on missiles, unexpectedly high (from the Western perspective), but highly indigenous technical knowhow, heVy use of underground facilities….
Dissident Dreamer
I see they’re calling it the Ramadan Miracle in Iran. Let’s hope that’s the name that’s written into history.
eg
At 92 million in a country almost the size of western Europe, that’s some mouse!
It also has enviable geography, both in terms of location and elevation.
There’s a reason that there’s been a unified state there for thousands of years, eh?
Oh — and the Americans aren’t the first empire whose noses they’ve bloodied …
Mikel
“The IRGC said it would turn its attention more to Israel now.”
And that would be getting to the nitty gritty to see how long the conflict this year lasts.
Howard L
I find it interesting that Iran’s new leader releases his speech 10 minutes before the US market open:
Here is a flash news summary of the speech.
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: Strait Of Hormuz Must Be Kept Closed
– Calls For Unity Among People, Calls For Participation On Quds Day
– We Have Thwarted The Attempt To Divide Iran
– All US Bases Should Immediately Be Closed In The Region And Those Bases Will Be Attacked
hemeantwell
Might be of interest that those points of emphasis align with those in the fatwa issued by Ayatollah Sistani a few days ago but also add an offensive component. Like Sistani he stresses unity and participation in demonstrations and then goes on to calling for attacks on US bases, which I don’t believe Sistani specifically addressed.
Yaiyen
I still have a gut feeling that Iran’s current approach regarding the Strait of Hormuz is not enough. If I were in their position, I would say to China and Russia: A global superpower is coming for us. We have no other option but to mine the Strait of Hormuz. You are focused on protecting your business interests, while we are fighting for our survival. By mining the Strait, Iran could force USA, Israel and gulf state to start real peace talk . Even with the Strait mined, the USA would likely hold back from an all out response because Iran still holds two strategic cards it could play at any time. Iran has the capability to destroy all critical oil infrastructure across the Gulf and Iran possesses sufficient firepower to severely damage Israel but would likely reserve this option only as a last resort, for example, if Israel were to use nuclear weapons.
Socal Rhino
No they want to let some tankers transit. Like China and their own. Mining is up the escalation ladder.
Socal Rhino
Currently watching Alex Karp taking credit for Palantir super charging US war fighting capabilities including fast and accurate targeting, adding lethality. Don’t think this will age well.
Interesting slip. I think Silicon Valley, “like every other part of government, I mean every other industry.”
He opined that China and Russia are seeing what we are doing in this war compared to Afghanistan and seeing capabilities they can’t match.
ChrisFromGA
Very interesting slip, indeed.
Consider that Big Tech has been de facto, if not de jure, nationalized by the US Government. It explains a lot – the spying, the shilling for Big Government, the censorship on COVID, the love-fest with the MIC.
Except, unlike the nationalized industries of old, these ones are run for private interests, not the public.
motorslug
Maybe a slip for ‘the masses’, but realists and I’m guessing the majority of NC readers are quite aware the seed money for all of them came from the CIA.
mrsyk
Fast and accurate targeting… Like schools with kids in them?
Ignacio
I found extremely interesting the France 24 video and the report on Netanyahoo “not worrying anymore about law”. Israel, it seems, in advanced state of “fascistization” (take it as it is, a weird adjective with a meaning still to be defined precisely depending on how things go on).
The Rev Kev
When Israelis finally emerge from their bomb shelters when this war is over, they may not recognize their country anymore and I am not talking about the bomb damage. If Netanyahu turns the country into full fascism in order to protect his personal position, then that is when the real brain drain will occur as ordinary Israelis will flee to other countries for the sake of their families as well as themselves. The irony would be truly epic as the grandparents of many of them fled Germany when it turned fully fascist back in the 30s.
DD GE
History rhymin’ and all that.
ISL
Although the discussion of drones is correct, it also is so wrong and a prime example of why the US (as Andrei Martyanov opines non-stop) doctrine is 50 years outdated.
Shahed’s are more useful than the uber-expensive (rare-earth costly) Reapers (300 made) that Iran is rapidly attriting – I think ~2 per day per Larry Johnson; however, there is a reason the Ukrainian killing fields are saturated with fiber optics 20-30 km deep, infantry uses motorbikes, and Russia fields effective drone operator hunter teams. To date, Iran is solely using drones for attacking stationary facilities – addressing moving formations is much more complicated, and has rewritten Russian doctrine based on Ukraine. From doctrine comes strategy, and strategy dictates tactics. The US has no strategy in this (weekend!) war – just tactics. It’s self-evident that Iran will implement Russian learnings and has/can receive drones for use against US armor, light infantry, and small formations, and certainly Russian trainers in the latest tactics and strategy.
So here is my question: Does Iranian doctrine involve Hezbollah implementing the latest drone strategy in the one West Asian place the US cannot withdraw from, irrespective of the cost, Israel? Does it involve dropping munitions over, say, Oman (et al.) military, if they stand against Shiite protestors overrunning the palace?
As Scott Ritter has noted many times, the US is experimenting with some (not much) success at dropping a grenade from a drone! In recent army tests, the selected vendor drones attacked friendly forces, crashed, and generally (in an ideal test setting) failed embarrassingly. Another Wonderwaffen failure in the making!
Here is an important question: why have drones become so dominant (the low-altitude economy) in the last decade? Rare Earth magnets power/weight motors (and many other components) for which China has a monopoly / near monopoly (Russia maintains its own logistics).
Side note: the last clip from JaKanta above reports $93 billion (with a b) on fine dining spent by the war department in September 2025 – that’s an annualized (not realistic, but still!!!) trillion – or the entire official budget.
marku52
I would as a power EE say that rare earth DC motors, potent Mosfet driver circuits, and huge advances in LIion battery power density make them much more effective than in the past.
Think greater payload and range. I see this next door as a house is being built. Most of the power tools that used to AC cord powered are now battery driven. Even the Skilsaw, a real power eater.
And for Shaheds, Postel was recently in DD’s show pointing out that the IR seeker head for a Shahed type drone can be purchased off the shelf for a couple of hundred $$
Was it Arelien who memed “The democratization of missile-ing”?
ISL
Electronic Intifada is reporting the Shahed has 2500 km range (cypress), The US Shahed copy drones bravely used to “hit” Iran is only 600 km, so it could not have reached Iran. Except maybe the northwestern Kurdish border if launched from Kurdish Iraq. My SWAG is they ran out of fuel over the Iraqi desert – Iraq is busy rocketing the US bases continuously, so they are not going on a road trip to get close enough to Iran to launch.
Polar Socialist
The tiny drones are getting a lot of publicity, because they are new, they do have an effect, they are personal and there’s plenty of them.
They still do have a short range and carry a very small payload, a hand grenade or an RPG warhead. Less than two pounds of explosives.
In Ukraine, behind the headlines, compared to the amount of explosives delivered every day by artillery, rockets and bombs the FPV drones are just a fraction of a fraction. One, single FAB 3000 delivers same amount of destruction as about 2000 FPV drones. And then some, I doubt 2000 tiny drones can bring a city block down.
Now, a basic version of Shaheed drone carries around 100 pounds of payload for several hundred miles, so it’s basically an el cheapo cruise missile: relatively slow and inefficient against hard targets. But it has turned out there are a plenty of targets that are not hard and also definitely not worth a $2.5 million missile.
jonhoops
I believe the difference between artillery and fpv drones on the Ukraine war front lines is that with drones you have the precision to hunt directly into the trenches. An artillery strike while much larger may not be as effective if the troops are dug in. It basically means that you can’t hide anywhere on the battlefield even deep in the rear.
Yes, many distressing videos on Twitter of drones chasing soldiers and cars and blowing them up.
Boiling Frog
For years now I’ve come back to the chart of “history of world’s reserve currencies” when trying to understand where we are, where we are going. (Thank you Nicole Foss, wherever you are …)
Nobody wants to hear it.
The third generation destroys what grandpa built? Simplistic, yes, but not as simple as Ad Hominem attacks that pass for analysis.
Sheesh those get tiresome…
NC is an amazing site, amazing commentariot – ¡muchas gracias!
The Rev Kev
‘The third generation destroys what grandpa built?’
What you are talking about is the proverb of “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations”. It seems even the Chinese have noted this phenomena and talk about rice paddy to rice paddy in three generations.
vao
There is a saying in Saudi Arabia that goes in that direction, though with a slightly different tone (has to do with exhaustion of oil reserves and money having been squandered):
My grandfathers drove camels; my father drives a car; I pilot an airplane; my sons will drive camels.
vao
It should be “rode camels” and “will ride camels”, but readers probably got the gist.
hk
There are almost identical proverbs in quite a few different cultures. Thd magic number (of generations before family wealth disappears) always seems to be 3. I wonder if there’s a reason for that, other than it’s easy for people to grasp.
DJG, Reality Czar
France 24 video.
I agree with Yves Smith. Start listening at 2:35 to Noga Tarnopolsky describing the detachment of the Israeli government from the populace, the lawlessness, and the shock !!! that Israel is not a democracy — even as the illegal settlers in an apartheid state descend to slaughter Palestinians in the West Bank.
A bracing side of this war is the sheer cowardice: Trump, the very name of cowardice. Hillary, who else?, appearing on TV to blab more about her adoration of wars — Hillary the very name of cowardice. The Netanyahu family, now ensconced in a T.G.I.F. in Miami. I note that the egregious Peter Thiel is here in Italy blabbering about the antichrist.
One recalls Dolores Ibarruri. And FDR: “We, too, born to freedom, and believing in freedom, are willing to fight to maintain freedom. We, and all others who believe as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees.”
No matter what one thinks of the government of the Islamic Republic, the Iranians have met oppression by outsiders with dignity.
The “West”? “The Hollow Men” by T.S. Eliot
For Thine is
Life is
For Thine is the
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
.Tom
Thank you, Yves, again. Spectacular work you and Team NC are doing.
> Troublingly, the Wall Street Journal is pushing the Trump Administration in that direction, by insisting that it not back down in a conflict it cannot win.
Yes. Otoh, the two paras from WSJ you provided show that some at the WSJ understand the true nature of the conflict, as Larry Johnson puts it. Well, not really but one important aspect of its nature: that US/Israel started something they don’t have the power to stop. And WSJ is educating investors about that by publishing this a piece.
Ann
Energy Secretary Wright says U.S. ‘not ready’ to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz yet
“…The history of DAR is actually pretty interesting and worth a closer dive into the topic.
In mid-1980s, Germany and the USA commenced a joint project aimed to create a specialized single-use UAV that would be able to target Soviet radars, become a decoy averting enemy air defenses from real weapons, or wipe anti-aircraft systems altogether in a “fire-and-forget” way.
German aircraft manufacturer Dornier (existed: 1922– 2002) came out as winner of the competition for the contract, their product was known as Die Drohne Antiradar, the production process also implemented some technologies developed by Texas Instruments.
According to openly available data, DAR was an explosive aerial suicide drone with a weight 110 kg, maximum speed 250 km/h (155 mph), flight duration up to 3 hours, thus the potential range should be around 600 km; the engine was supplied by Fichtel and Sachs — now it’s making solely car engines…”
hk
Something analogous to Geran drones existed since, in a manner of speaking, at least WW2 if not much earlier. The first radio-cintrolled unmanned plane with a bomb was used in 1917, during WW1, I think? “Mistletoes,” unmanned radio-controlled planes with bombs were used as precision guided munitions by Germany, etc. The only difference is that “planes” have gotten cheaper and controls became more sophisticated.
It occurs to me that there is another, very analogous weapon, that US has copied, with an analogous history: the RPG7 rocket launcher. But while they are used by literal millions by US’s adversaries, they are used only by special ops, I think? If course, RPG7 really is a simple stuff that’s really the love child betwen American bazooka and German panzerfaust, both of WW2 vintage.
Russia and Iran have been iterating on the drone over the last four years in Ukraine. Russia aimed to produce 25,000 a year, the article provides an estimate of 18,540.
The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stoping an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World. I won’t ever let that happen! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Who is this “we“?
[Insert Carlin quote here 🙂]
Dogs won’t like this dog food one little bit.
Carolinian
I thought the Soviet Union was the Evil Empire. So many Evil Empires, so little time.
Alternately Trump doesn’t even have enough brains to make up his own blather and has to steal from Reagan.
Michael Hudson was pushing the idea that a Hormuz closure would benefit Trump’s oil industry supporters and might be a plan if Trump had a plan which he doesn’t. Arguably his real plan is to avoid impeachment and eternal infamy and that isn’t working out either.
juno mas
The USA i s the largest refiner of petroleum products in the world. Fourty percent of its unrefined oil arrives via Canada (tar sands). So when oil goes up Canada takes its cut.
(The price of a gallon of gasoline at my local station has moved from $4.17 to $4.89 in two weeks. I’m not making bank off of this increase, Grump!)
Duels are just Europeans behaving like alley cats in wigs, that’s it. If you look at animals, say my dog and my cat, they do threat displays before actually fighting because fighting is costly. So the dog will growl and show its teeth, or the cat will raise up like boxing, and usually the cat will go belly up to signal submission. One time, however, my cat (Pippi) just reared up and went for the dog (Lilly), savaging it for lack of a better word. I pulled Pippi off but dude went right back in, I was a bit scared of him. The dog, despite being bigger, did not know what hit her and retreated. The cat remains dominant, you could say he achieved strategic victory that day. That is roughly what’s happening in the Middle East.[…]
The 12-Day-War of 2025, in this context, was a threat display. Iran showed that they could hit ‘Israel’—and what a show it was—but it didn’t hit them very hard, and didn’t hit the wider imperial bases at all. They did not want to square off against the big dogs just yet and, indeed, avoided this as long as possible. They effectively (and it pains me to write this) showed their belly, like my cat would. They let American B2s hit their nuclear mountains and let Trump declare victory and move on. That was all telegraphed, like the usual threat displays between Pippi and Lilly in my household.
Of course the problem for those of us who love animal metaphors is that the above author’s dog may be a lot more sensible than an old man president with a brain stuffed full of Fox News and advisers like Lindsey who are chicken hawks right down to the ground.
The American public on the other hand are more than happy to give that fierce cat its space. We are in vast danger from all those DC swamp creatures who don’t seem to understand the ways of nature. Trump played on these fears and then became the thing he claimed to be against.
Wowsers, I am only partway through but Parsi seems unmoored. His ideas for a resolution are….sort of shocking. He’s a very rational and it seems decent person and I think cannot cope cognitively with how deranged and terrible things are.
Some problems: Parsi has next to nothing to say about Israel’s damage tolerance. The focus is on the US and Iran, Iranian infrastructure getting destroyed vs. disruption of the world economy. He also says nothing about how much China and Russia, particularly the former, would be willing to help Iran rebuild and how that shapes Iran’s damage tolerance.
ISL
A China rebuild would be state of the art.
Socal Rhino
I followed him until the run up to the war. Does not appear to be a good faith actor.
mrsyk
Thanks. Parsi’s comments on pain tolerance are on point. The home court would indicate advantage Iran here. I think his observations on escalation, are accurate as well. Interestingly, no mention of Hezbollah or the emerging ground war on the northern frontier.
I don’t get this part though, Even when it comes to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it is essentially a virtual closure. They are not actually sinking any ships. They are not even shooting at them yet. Once they do that, it will be a completely different scenario., aren’t we there already?
Socal Rhino
I think he’s smart and well informed, but seemed pretty obvious that his sympathies were with the monarchists and it seemed to color his assessments. Just my personal opinion.
I always recall Pat Lang’s advice on intelligence: you must assess the message and the messenger separately. Untrustworthy people can provide good info, and credible people can give bad info.
mrsyk
Don’t know much of the author and I appreciate the additional color.
That last part is good advice, I agree.
jsn
Yes, but consequences have systematically non-adhered to the demographic Parsi occupies at least since Bush Sr. was voted out for breaking a promise, so the skillset for prognosticating consequences is underdeveloped.
The reality detachment of the embubbled is vast, the bubble walls so thick they distort the view of everything external.
Good faith? Yes. Delusional? Also.
Horne Fisher
The Russians and Chinese abstaining in the UN resolution is interesting. It seems like the US Iran war may have a similar effect as the Italians invading Ethiopia did. Everyone already knew that international law was dead by then but the Italians actions really brought it to the surface. It became pure power geopolitics after that, as the British really were left with a Hobson’s choice because they still were hopeful for Mussolini support against Hitler.
I also have followed John Helmer with a lot of interest over the last few months. If he is to be believed the Russian-Chinese positions are not as aligned as people think. Is what we are seeing jockeying of positions before the big war similar to what occurred between 1935-1938? When you dig deeper into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact you really get the picture that both Stalin and Hitler were jockeying for position to get the western powers on their side. Stalin was working more towards influencing the British French and American left with his actions in the Spanish civil war than any real help to the republicans in Spain. And Hitler always dreamed that he could be the continental power with Britain maintaining the sea. His actions at Dunkirk seem to back that up as he could have given a decisive blow to the British right then and there.
Not to simplify things to much, but if the only thing that matters at this point in the war is pure power and there are three major world powers, the best chance for the 3rd strongest is to align with the 2nd strongest because if they align with the strongest they will be swallowed up shortly after the 2nd power is defeated. Clearly to me Russia is the 3rd power here, we just don’t know who is 1 and 2. I would say the Chinese are 1 but I’m not sure. Perhaps Putin is still moving towards the Americans because he realizes this and is not satisfied with the Chinese sitting back with no skin in the game. They both seem to distrust that the other won’t make a deal with the Americans behind their back.
Like the Italians found themselves to be vassals of a larger power shortly after their war in Ethiopia, after this iteration in the Middle East is paused, the Iranians and Israel may find they are in fact just vassals of the bigger powers. I wish this wasn’t true regarding Iran, because I admire how well they have planned this war basically independent of any other major world powers, but I feel it is.
motorslug
Interesting premise for sure.
Russia already knows that the US’ word isn’t worth squat so I doubt Putin really has any intentions of partnering with them for anything. They do have the power to end the world if they chose.
China, however, knows how much hurt they can cause so they really don’t care about US promises as they have the means to pull the plug on everything from debt to minerals.
The third act of the play will be very interesting.
KD
Before the war, Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles, with ranges from a few hundred kilometers to more than 2,000. So far, it’s fired about 700. ..
Wasn’t Bloomberg one of those sources who kept telling us from 2022 onwards that Russia was running out of missiles and artillery? I recall Larry Johnson stating it could be as high as 20,000. If I wanted to educate my audience, rather than make a definitive statement, I might provide an estimate and most importantly, the sourcing for my estimate. Otherwise, it is like those Ukrainian casualty numbers, where they attribute their actual casualty count to the Russian side.
KD
I found this source, which from the logo on down is clearly shilling for US/Israel:
Contra Bloomberg, they are estimating Iran had well over 2,500 ballistic missiles before the conflict began on the low end of the estimate.
If we assert this source is clearly hasbara, what does that make Bloomberg, which is even more halcyon?
The unknown unknown in this conflict is Iran’s existing ballistic missile stocks. If these estimates are off significantly, better abandon all hope.
ISL
Also, Iranian production rate, which is certainly being accelerated. If Larry Johnson is right, it could be 100-200 per month (to reach 20,000 in a decade) with order magnitude(s) higher drone production. In such case Iran (like Russia) has sustainable bombardment from production immune to air interdiction (and potentially infinite resupply from China and Russia (by rail).
A better question (Put on my Clausewitz hat) is how many 1-3 ton MRV missiles are needed to Gaza-fy Israeli cities (with no water/power) + Gulf cities (with no water/power) + US bases (with no water/power) and achieve Iranian war aims – US retreat from the region permanently? Seems to me far less than 20,000.
KD
I am afraid that we may have a definitive answer to your question before this conflict ends.
chris
Yeah, the propaganda is strong in that article. But just as a simple thought experiment…
Let’s say the Iranians fire 2 missiles per hour at Israel, every day, for 30 days. That’s 2x24x30 = 1440 missiles. Leaving the Iranians roughly 1000 missiles in stock based on western friendly public estimates. Let’s assume that each missiles requires ONLY two interceptors to be releases to defeat them. Do the US and Israel have another 2880 interceptors on hand in the Middle East? What happens if the Iranians mix the missiles with drones which they have lots of? What happens if the missiles require 3 or more interceptors to defeat them? Do the US and Israel have 4320 interceptors in the Middle East right now?
I think the answer is pretty clearly the US and Israel do not have the capacity to handle attacks with that kind of regularity. I think one reason why Iran is not doing something like that now is because some launch sites have been taken out and they are still working over other targets. Once they decide to focus purely on Israel and they have cleared the interceptor stock from Israel, even by friendly estimates, Israel is screwed.
Speaking of whom: Prof. Marandi was interviewed by George Galloway yesterday, where Galloway credited him for predicting everything that is happening now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzcT6kIjh8A
From what I can tell, Marandi is a truly extraordinary person. As a young man fighting against the western-backed Iraqis, he was a victim of chemical weapons attacks, at least once. He was also shot, and if I recall, he still has shrapnel in his leg. He mentioned that he is in Tehran, and has been out in the streets with large crowds expressing support for the Iranian government. This during bombardments and attacks. He also said no one in the crowd even flinched during the bombardment.
Not only a brilliant analyst, he is fearless, and steadfast on a personal level. He does us a service, as well as the Iranian people. Iran should award him with a special honor.
BillC
Prof. Marandi shows himself to be a man of humanity, clear thought, honor, and courage who simply but eloquently recounts life today in Tehran. You may already know, but, IIRC, he was born in the US and spent the first 10-12 years there before returning to his family’s native Iran. Compare his exposition of his countrymens’ nuanced reactions to US aggression with Trump/Hegseth/etc. boundless and inhuman viciousness in pursuing a purposeless war. We are privileged to hear his voice.
KD
Please don’t raise his stature too high, or the “most-moral-army-in-the-world” will start targeting him for murder.
Es s Ce Tera
This is every Iranian I’ve ever encountered, though.
When a people is attacked by Israel and the US for 70+ years they’ll tend to lose their fear of both. Same with Gazans, Lebanese, Syrians, etc. The strategy of “Mowing the lawn” will eventually destroy Israel.
mrsyk
Thank you. I have a deep respect for this man.
M, “They (Iran) have plans to continue this war until after the (US)midterm elections.” I bet they do.
He comments on fear mongering and false flag potential, regarding the “drone strikes on California” cray cray at around the 18th minute.
Much of this talk is about the resilience of the Iranian population, something that seems to have been overlooked by team z.
Cat Burglar
The story about possible Iranian drone strikes on California is just the latest in a train of terror war propaganda in the state. My favorite was the miniature golf course in San Jose being listed as a potential terror strike target after 9-11. (The manager at the golf course said Winchester Mystery House was a much likelier target.) Even their US Reps couldn’t get the target nomination off, and it took years before it was finally dropped.
The there was the front page story in the SF Chronicle about an AlQaida plot to bring an explosive-laden boat alongside the Dumbarton Bridge to blow it sky-high, with exactly zero sourcing. A couple years later we found out there was indeed no basis for the story.
Everybody remember the color-coded terror alerts at the airport? Same hooey; even Bush’s homeland security head tried to get them stopped, to no avail. At least we’ve been through it before and can spot it easily now.
Ann
Trump Leaves Allies With Whiplash After Video Call on Iran
“Trump sent mixed signals to the leaders of the world’s seven leading economies in a video call hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, unnamed sources told Axios. These sources said that Trump was “ambiguous and noncommittal,” leaving some on the call thinking that he wants a quick end to hostilities, while others thought that he was digging in for a long war. “
Kouros
Trump sent mixed signals to the leaders of the world’s seven leading economies. I don’t think China, Russia, and India were on the call…
Ann
Iran won’t surrender “in a million years,” analyst says, warning regime could push for nuclear weapons
Iran won’t surrender. At the end of the day, war depends on a 22 y.o. walking into the enemy leader’s office and planting a flag.
Never going to happen versus Iran. Geography + lack of American warm bodies + 25 years of post-9/11 DC grift (Cold War contractor grift looks quaint by comparison)
mrsyk
I agree with this view. From the Trita Parsi piece linked in Steve h’s comment above, on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei,
this is the Supreme Leader who came to his position as a result of Israel and the United States killing his father, his mother, his wife and his child. I don’t think he’s going to be in a reconciliatory mood for quite some time.
Iran has just demanded what is sure to the least it will accept to stop the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lead headline at the Aljazeera live feed:
Iran war live: US bases will be attacked unless closed, says Khamenei
And
Supreme leader vows Iran will secure compensation through assets or destruction
In a written statement read out on state TV, Iran’s supreme leader has said the country “will obtain compensation from the enemy”.
“If it refuses, we will take from its assets to the extent we deem appropriate, and if that is not possible, we will destroy its assets to the same extent,” he said in the statement.
Did you not read the post? As of yesterday, Iran explicitly said no more proportional response:
Iran says its policy for reciprocal strikes “has ended”, a spokesman for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters says in a statement.
J.B
“Iran quickly started attacking American banks in the Gulf region.”
Did you intend to say they quickly threatened to hit American banks? I cant find any sources confirming american banks have already been hit. Or was it a reference to some sort cyber attacks that have already been conducted on American banks? Regardless, many thanks for the work you and the rest of the NC team have been doing.
There was a comment by a YouTuber to that effect which I should have verified. However, Iran got some banks to shut down via evacuation:
Several banks in the region, including Citi in Dubai and HSBC and Qatar, are evacuating after Iran’s warnings that it will target banks after Israel/US bombed a ‘Sepah’ bank in Tehran, killing several bank employees. https://t.co/RhIfblXpqKpic.twitter.com/JV1qFuuugV
The compensation terms have the character of a “bring it on” challenge to Iran’s adversaries — the more damage done to Iran, the more compensation (either positive or negative) will be required to end the conflict.
JonnyJames
Thanks Yves, I just saw that, so much for ending the war on US terms eh. The incompetence, recklessness, and outright bufoonery of the US regime is getting harder to deny, even in the mass media cartel. I can’t help but be worried, but I tend to be a bit pessimistic. However, I don’t see much to be optimistic about.
ISL
To ensure the US does not return (its already left), Iran needs bases (sovereign territory) on both sides of the Persian Gulf – that could easily begin to meet the reparations (especially if built by the Gulfies money).
Eventually, the US will have a choice: 1. Seize the Straits of Hormuz (yes, its a losing strategy – once the US seizes the tiger, what’s the cost to keep it?) 2. Abandon the Middle East (and Israel). We already know Israel can force the US (blackmail?) to make any sacrifice (east asian allies hello!) – Iran will rubble those bases into unusuability as a bridgehead pronto – meanwhile attacking Israel brings US mobile air defense (carriers) to the Med and out of the fight and not protecting the abandoned bases.
Jason Boxman
Kinda interesting — these are demands the US is unwilling to meet. Much like Russia in Ukraine, Iran is establishing facts on the ground.
I’m not sure there’s a happy ending here. Iran probably holds all the cards.
Alan Sutton
I heard Prof Marandi tell Glen Diesen the other day that Iran would receive “compensation” from their enemies and I thought he was dreaming, or at least slightly exaggerating.
But, there you go, that’s the official confirmation right there.
US and Israel are in big trouble now.
Socal Rhino
Like Ukraine, the losing side doesn’t dictate terms.
Safety First
Note one part of his article is not quite right:
Some carriers have resumed limited operations, but the priority is getting out travelers already stranded, and expatriation flights of diplomats and their families.
I don’t know what this particular Substack author specifically refers to, but the Russian Ministry of Transportation has spent much of the week reporting in detail on Aeroflot flights from the UAE and other Arab countries. Yesterday, for instance, they said the following (https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/12504#):
The minister noted that in the past few weeks, Russian civil aviation encountered serious challenges. On February 28 the situation in the Middle East escalated, and the airspace of 10 countries was closed. Presently, the airspace of 5 countries remains closed.
Despite the situation, from 2 to 11 March Russian and foreign carriers made 284 flights out of the Middle East and transported around 59 thousand passengers…
…Today, Aeroflot is concluding its program of evacuation flights, and will carry out two scheduled flights from the UAE. Ticket sales for the Dubai-Moscow flights departing at 13:10 and 15:40 local time are open for passengers with no previous bookings.”
I mean, it sounds like they’ll continue to do a handful of scheduled UAE flights for now…though “card subject to change”, of course. And they’d certainly spent the past week doing 28+ flights a day.
Parenthetically, a day or two ago I’d gotten in touch with one of my regular contacts in Russia. She had been planning a holiday with her daughter in Dubai “some time in March”; she has now triumphantly informed me, that Dubai is “off”, and instead they are going on a holiday to China. I am fairly certain they are not the only upper-middle-class Russian tourists who have had that very same thought. Way to stick it to the Chinese, Trumpie-boy…
Emirates is doing its best to operate as normal, given the givens…and they are the biggest carrier in the region. But he should have parsed things out better.
Iran’s dangerous attacks on civil aviation targets across the Middle East show no sign of slowing down… In fact, it appears as if the attacks are increasing in intensity and severity. The omnipresent threat has not, however, swayed Dubai from attempting to rebuild the network of its flagship mega airline, Emirates.
Instead, Emirates and its sister airline Flydubai plan to operate more than 200 flights on Thursday and Friday, not only repatriating anyone who has been stranded in Dubai or overseas, but also allowing passengers to connect through its hub.
Fetterman is dueling with Graham for the most ghoulish human being.
JonnyJames
There”s a lot of competition there. Graham is just the pathetic-coward poster-boy, I would say most of Congress thinks the same, but don’t say it out loud, or at least not as blatantly.
The cartoon-character Crusader Pete, with his Knights Templar Cross tattoos, and “kill em all” attitude must qualify for top 5 for most sadistic ghouls
erstwhile
Speaking of ghouls, isn’t that stephen miller over there, nosing out from behind the curtain? He gives the rest of the creeps, the creeps.
marku52
Phil Harper “The Digger” has an extensively foot-noted sub up on the events and status of the war, up to the beginning yesterday of the tanker war.
Harper and family were in Bahrain when it all went off, had to get cab rides overland to Oman to get out.
“The Netherlands and Iceland have filed declarations of intervention in the genocide case brought by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the court announced Thursday.”
Even as the US is pressuring the world to support Israel and it’s insane war, this is a good sign indeed.
Paraguay also submitted a Declaration of Intervention on the 3rd and the number of countries who have submitted Declarations of Intervention is now up to 18 (Colombia, Libya, Mexico, Palestine, Spain, Türkiye, Chile, Maldives, Bolivia, Ireland, Cuba, Belize, Brazil, Comoros, Belgium, Paraguay, Netherlands and Iceland).
Ann
John Fetterman Says Iran Girls’ School Strike Is Just a Leftist Craze
What is the bet that that building was empty and that Iran’s Aerospace Headquarters is operating underground somewhere.
AG
That would be the first assumption serious reporters should have made.
At least check if there is any confirmation from a decent non-US/ISR source before I report it.
But hey, this is just us having very deranged thoughst, right?!
XXYY
…the pummeling Iran is inflicting with relatively cheap drones, with its Shahed’s the modern analogy to the AK-47, that is forcing the US out of its assumptions of its superiority, in no small measure rooted in bigotry. Yves commentary
There’s certainly is bigotry in the United States attitude about its own weaponry, just the same as there is bigotry in Germany’s attitude about its cars, or France’s attitude about its food. There may have been a time when the United States attitude was justified, perhaps during World War II and immediately after. However, I think the sweetheart arrangement between the US government and the US military industrial complex is probably the main motivating factor in the continuous proclamations about the superiority of US weapons, and it’s very easy to sell people the idea your stuff is the best as long as it’s never used.
One of the eye-opening features of the Ukraine war has certainly been how poorly US and European weapons have performed on a modern battlefield against a peer force. I’m not sure how much of this was a genuine surprise to manufacturers, but it has certainly been impossible to ignore. My guess is they are now frantically scrambling to find ways to save their businesses, especially their export businesses, and copying what the winner is doing is certainly a legitimate business tactic.
No, this is bigotry with respect to Iran: Orientalism, the leaders being beardos in robes…
With Russia, it’s the stereotypes of Slavs being at best one step (erm, steppe) removed from Mongols or Vandals sweeping in on horses to pillage.
mrsyk
I had meant to thank you for that line earlier, but got lost in the info drop. Sure helps explain the lack of planning.
Vicky Cookies
Americans, and presumably Israelis, are attacking the PMF, the Hashad-al-Shabi Shia militias which were folded into the Iraqi state armed forces. This means that American and Israeli forces are attacking the Iraqi state. The Iraqi government can’t do much about this, because the oil revenues it relies on run through Washington. But it’s interesting that in all the bluster about the Iranians supposedly attacking their neighbors for no reported reason, I haven’t seen any comment on this. The Hashad-al-Shabi, with IRGC help, were crucial in burying ISIS. It’s a bit like that saying about the West never having forgiven the Soviets for defeating fascism.
Socal Rhino
Iraqi Shia militias reportedly have warned Jolani that if Syria moves to intervene in Lebanon they will eliminate his regime. The US grip on Iraq may be tenuous, as is Israel’s in Syria.
Treat as unconfirmed. Pretty sure I saw it on X from a credible but not official source. There is good info there but Elon seems to be scrambling the feeds and I couldn’t find it, should have bookmarked.
junkelly
Hard to search for because the resistance and the leader all go by different names.
Wouldn’t be beyond Iran’s ability to drop a missile atop the Presidential palace in Syria as a warning.
Cat Burglar
The story in The Cradle, citing Al-Hurra, two days ago, about the Iraqi army coming under fire from an Israeli force, has one detail added today — Iraqi Shiite units are attacking them.
Ann
“Freedom Is Not Free”: GOP Senator Tells People to Get Over Gas Prices
Senator Roger Marshall said it was simply a “sacrifice” people would have to make.
This is Iranian oil, not Gulf State oil. My takeaway is that Iran is still loading and shipping oil to China despite the bombardment at a level around two thirds normal. The conclusion is a bit weak in its conflating Gulf State production risk with Iranian production risk.
The war’s central energy paradox is that Iran cannot fully shut global oil flows without hurting itself, yet it has shown it can make the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz dangerous enough to rattle markets and force governments to act, even while keeping a substantial share of its own exports – mainly to China – moving.
The Rev Kev
Waiting for Trump to start seizing oil tankers at sea heading to China out of petulance.
XXYY
This is interesting:
Qatar Aluminum no longer plans to fully shut down its smelter in the country, and will instead maintain operations at about 60% of capacity after confirmation that the plant will continue to receive gas from its supplier. Bloomberg.
It will still be impossible to export the aluminum by ship, presumably. Is their plan to just dump it outdoors in a huge pile until the Strait of Hormuz reopens? Aluminum is quite weather resistant, I believe.
Weird times.
Jokerstein
Pure aluminium exposed to the atmosphere almost immediately acquires a surface coating of easily removed alumina (Al2O3) and thereafter is essentially corrosion-resistant. Storing it outside is just fine.
That bad old Putin again. The US/Isr. (with direct or indirect UK support) mass murder little kids, attack hospitals, creates chemical warfare by attacking oil refinery near populated areas, engages in “double tap” attacks, sinks boats and ships, then murders the survivors instead of picking them out of the water, supports and finances Genocide…
But that Slavic uentermensch in Russia is the baddie. Yah sure, you betcha
As Ray McGovern said, these guys give hypocrisy a bad name.
Laughingsong
If Putin really was “behind” all of the things that the UK claims, he’d have to exist in the doorway to the next universe.
Socal Rhino
US CENTCOM has reported a fire on the Gerald Ford. Per the reporting, a fire occurred in the laundry room, two sailors were injured but no damage to propulsion.
I’d heard earlier reports but this is an official navy statement.
On March 12, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) experienced a fire that originated in the ship’s main laundry spaces. The cause of the fire was not combat-related and is contained.
There is no damage to the ship’s propulsion plant, and the aircraft carrier remains fully operational.
Two Sailors are currently receiving medical treatment for non-life-threatening injuries and are in stable condition. Additional information will be provided when available.
The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is currently operating in the Red Sea in support of Operation Epic Fury.
—–
Resistance lint?
ThirtyOne
The Boxer rebellion!
Ann
Israeli military drops charges against soldiers accused of sexually assaulting Palestinian detainee
The U.S. Navy will begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as “militarily possible,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News.
“That was always in our planning, that there’s the chance that the U.S. Navy or perhaps an international coalition will be escorting oil tankers through,” Bessent said in that interview.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, earlier Thursday said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”
Based on what I am reading he did take questions but I am still looking for a video and transcript, will share if I find. Lots of preparing the ground for failure in operational goals sounds like
Ben Panga
Transcript (Hebrew, but browser translation works well)
Al Jazeera has a dubbed to English version of the video but it’s 6 mins shorter so misses part of it. (Starts in middle of a sentence) https://youtu.be/-j26GlYG2is
raspberry jam
I am taking immense psychic damage for the commentariat by watching the video with captions translated to English. I’m about three quarters of the way through but a few things stand out:
– a lot of references to acting on their own/making their own way to become a regional power; I think this “regional power without always having the backing of the US” position is going to be more prominent going forward
– a lot of emphasis on how Iran has been changed permanently
– he is extremely skilled at answering only a little bit of the question and then twisting the rest of the response back to his primary points
I think this is the first time I’ve watched him do a lot of speaking in Hebrew and I have to admit he has a very specific and engaging style that, if one were unpracticed in reading intent vs projection, would come across as confident leadership. However I am practiced and to me he looks very worried and stressed (even with he Zoom appearance filter on).
raspberry jam
okay having watched the entire speech now I think the most interesting part is the last reporter’s questions and not so much what Netanyahu says but how he reacts. This won’t come across in the transcript, it’s worth watching. It starts here, you can switch the captions to auto translate to English.
The first question is about a petition underway to have Ben Gvir removed. Here you see Netanyahu briefly drop the polished mask and then rein it back in; between the bullshit he says that he doesn’t think now is the time for this (because Israel is facing an existential crisis).
The second question is about the Witkoff visit and what he thinks about the possibility that Witkoff is coming to set a deadline or end date for the war. Here Netanyahu does something interesting, you briefly see body language that indicates he is genuinely nervous and/or worried. And he says something like “I hope I will always be happy to see Witkoff” but then stresses that the US does not issue dictates, the relationship is more of a partnership.
I get the impression the reporters are used to dealing with the slippery, bullshit responses and initially I was surprised by how many of the questions dealt with Trump’s comments on the pardon (one funny point was when a reporter asked if Netanyahu had told Trump that Herzog was a disgrace, putting the words in his mouth). But by the last question it made sense; I think everyone there is just as much aware of the role the trial is playing in the war and the news of the last day about a pardon not being recommended plus his reaction to the question about Ben Gvir makes me wonder if he is really nearing the last of his nine lives (so to speak) and if Witkoff does indeed tell him to end the war what he will do next to stay out of jail. Stop saying nukes, I think another Lebanon war is more likely!
Acacia
Thank you, RJ, for this, and sparing some of us the revulsion of watching the man talk for more than a minute.
OT, but since Ben Gvir came up and in the spirit of comic relief, some Russians on Telegram were asking whether he was behind the wheel of the KC-135 that got shot down.
Huey
Many thanks raspberry.
ThirtyOne
Thanks for taking the time to write the address up. There are certain faces that I really dislike seeing, and BB’s in one of them.
Steve H.
Likewise, this overcame my avoidance reaction and now I know why I dislike it.
First, tmi/bona fides: in 7th grade, my father had me read Ekman’s 1971 paper soon after it came out, before his popular works. I continued that inquiry, and studied a semester with Adam Kendon on the microanalysis of gesture. Also, I first got paid for acting when I was 13, graduated from the Goodman School of Drama/DePaul, was a professional for years and kept getting checks until Covid undercut being indoors and maskless.
Thus: like many public speakers, he masks both facially and gesturally. That’s not bad in itself, MLK did the same thing. His particular trait is lateral mouth tension while keeping the upper lip relaxed. When he smiles with this conformation, it takes on a mocking leer quality, very much the What Me Worry? look. It prevents a flaring of the naso-labial folds, dampening out specifically the expression of anger/disgust/hate to the audience.
What raspberry jam noticed is a loss of tonus in the masking structure. Note his self-touch (not a gesture) at 34:17. This could be considered self-soothing, but I’ll suggest he uses it, conscious or not, to re-fire the musculature and regain his mask, which is back up within five seconds.
raspberry jam
Thank you for this comment!
Sibiriak
Thanks for the report!
Ben Panga
Thanks RJ, I continue to appreciate your perceptive reports.
Cleanse your psyche thoroughly! Twice!!!
JG
Egads, that person looks to be in very poor health. Between my volunteer shifts at the hospital/nursing home this past month I have become reacquainted with that, that … look. I can almost smell the body decay, just by looking/seeing. Egads! Retired RN, current status: Death Doula. Thanks, all, the NC community is my go to, daily…
vidimi
His facial asymmetry suggests to me an advanced brain tumor, probably a benign carcinoma, pressing heavily against his left facial nerve. He didn’t have this asymmetry when he was young and it’s not due to normal aging.
vidimi
The word I meant to use was neurinoma. A carcinoma is not benign.
Ann
US Navy to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, treasury secretary tells Sky News
OMG they have lost their minds. Shooting gallery time.
How much more humiliation is the US about to visit on itself? And which tankers will be so dumb as to go along?
Iran already issued a wonderfully colorful threat, a more artful version of, “You may come in horizontally (on the sea surface), but you will leave vertically (as in be sunk)”.
But this is Bessent, not anyone in the armed services, so this may just be to try to cool the oil markets late on a Friday.
He said “when militarily possible.” Nothing new. Saw that portion of his interview on CNBC.
ChrisFromGA
For full context, Bessent said:
“My belief that as soon as it is militarily possible, the US Navy, perhaps with an international coalition, will be escorting vessels through.”
Which parses out a bit more nuanced than the headline. “As soon as militarily possible” could be three weeks, three months, or … never.
Nonetheless, I tend to agree with the theory that Bessent has been huffing 10-year-old lacquer behind a Wendy’s dumpster.
Tom Stone
I believe it will be possile for the US Navy to escort ships through the strait of Hormuz…
no later than the 32nd of February.
Ann
US to Ease Shipping Rule in Bid to Tame Spiraling Fuel Prices
“The Trump administration plans to waive a century-old maritime law that requires American ships be used to transport goods between US ports as it seeks to blunt surging oil and gasoline prices, according to people familiar with the matter.
The 30-day exemption, which is still being developed, is set to apply broadly to vessels moving oil, gasoline, diesel, liquefied natural gas and fertilizer among US ports”
A separate analysis released by Navigistics Consulting reached a similar conclusion, estimating that even in the unlikely scenario where all savings from a waiver were passed directly to consumers, the nationwide impact would amount to less than a penny per gallon.
The firm calculated a maximum theoretical reduction of about $0.0027 per gallon in the average U.S. gasoline price.
The report argues that any potential savings created by a waiver would likely be captured by fuel traders entering the market rather than passed on to consumers.
ThirtyOne
“The business of America is business middlemen.”
raspberry jam
Netanyahu speech here transcript in Hebrew though no auto translate in YouTube I am mobile can’t translate myself
Anyone seen recent proof of life for Bibi? Much speculation about his death. Iran posted an AI video showing a small boat hitting his private plane with a missile and its crash in the water. Could be a warning or wishful but could also be a subtle statement.
Acacia
Well… is there reason to doubt the press conference today… ?
BTW, I notice only 27k views on YT (official PM of Israel channel), and 90% of the comments are positive. Many also from India and elsewhere.
Even international, kind of a tiny fan base, no?
hk
It was via Zoom, right?
Acacia
Implying… an “AI” Bibi gave a presser scripted by others because the real Bibi got whacked by a missile… ?
Ann
Ret. Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Netanyahu Could Turn to Nuclear Bombs If Iran War Escalates
What U.S. Cabinet Secretary doesn’t buy a nuclear bunker when their side is winning?
Acacia
“U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced the loss of a KC-135 “Stratotanker” over Iraq after an incident with another aircraft that landed safely. Rescue efforts are ongoing. CENTCOM states this was not due to friendly or hostile fire.”
However, there are other reports that a second KC-135 was hit but landed in Israel.
The Rev Kev
Two tankers down is going to hurt operations a lot, even if the second one is soon repaired. The Iranians should hit that second one while it is sitting empty on the runway to remove it for good.
Acacia
Yes, I read there are only between 6 and 13 KC-135s in the Middle East right now, though of course there are more elsewhere.
I’m a little surprised that the second plane that got hit apparently landed at Ben Gurion. The Iranians have been showing some restraint to not yet crater all the runways there.
P.S. Russian Telegram reported:
“The incident did not occur due to either enemy fire or friendly fire. 😁😁”
Acacia
Mujahideen now claims they downed the plane:
In defense of our country’s sovereignty and its airspace, which is being violated by the occupying forces’ aircraft, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have shot down a KC-135 aircraft belonging to the American occupation forces in western Iraq, using appropriate weapons.
“Today’s phased world war should be framed as a single mechanism: the perpetual production of emergency, the only weather in which the monetary machine operates without its wires showing. Before Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran’s proxy networks, there was the “war on Covid” – a “pandemic” that legitimised the most extraordinary monetary deluge in history, normalizing the idea that trillions could materialize overnight to keep the leveraged edifice from collapsing. Each emergency trains the public to accept the next. Each crisis expands what monetary policy can do without democratic oversight.”
Louis Fyne
>>>How much more humiliation is the US about to visit on itself
Reportedly (per CBS News) an incident involving 2 air-to-air refueling tankers over western Iraq. 1 down, 1 returned to Jordan.
Initially the reporter tweeted that 1 had been “hit” (sic). She retracted that tweet and now just mentioned an incident in the vaguest terms—but it definitely was not enemy fire (per her 2nd tweet, per CENTCOM). (comment: we are all Alex Jones now)
CENTCOM: Just posted that they are aware of the loss of a KC-135 fueling aircraft in Iran. Per CENTCOM, loss was not due to enemy fire.
Ann
Loss of U.S. KC-135 Over Iraq
USCENTCOM
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command is aware of the loss of a U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing. Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely.
This was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.
More information will be made available as the situation develops. We ask for continued patience to gather additional details and provide clarity for the families of service members.
The Guardian is reporting the same, in the same vague terms.
Embarrassing regardless of the reason. I don’t expect to hear the truth about the situation regardless of what we see in the media.
nyleta
Two air refuelling tankers hit, one crashed, one made it back to Ben Gurion damaged. CENTCOM saying they collided. Costs are rising. Will be fun if the S400 is coming out to play
Widening Gyre
US lost an air-to-air refueling tanker today. Very military preparedness. Much wow.
An American military refueling plane went down in Iraq and rescue efforts were underway, U.S. Central Command said Thursday.
The KC-135 aircraft was part of the operation against Iran, but the crash was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire, the military said in a statement.
U.S. Central Command, which oversees the Middle East, said that two aircraft were involved and that one landed safely and the other went down in western Iraq. It described the latter as “a loss.”
…
The tanker is the fourth publicly acknowledged aircraft to crash as part of the U.S. military’s operations against Iran. Last week, the military confirmed that three American fighter jets were mistakenly downed by friendly Kuwaiti fire.
ChrisFromGA
Pop up art:
Statue of Trump, Epstein re-enacting titanic pose appears on the D.C. mall:
NEWS: The man who rammed his explosives-laden truck into a Michigan synagogue today was named Ayman Ghazaleh, according to a source familiar with the situation. Ghazaleh posted photos overnight of his family members, including young children, who were killed in a recent Israeli attack on the town of Mashghara, Lebanon. This is a developing story.
ThirtyOne
Slow down, you move too fast
Your family got smoked in a morning blast
Just gunning down those you can reach
Looking for revenge and feelin’ groovy
Ba da da da da da da, feelin’ groovy
Hello, lamppost, what’cha knowin’?
I’ve come to watch your strange fruit growin’
Ain’t’cha got no rhymes for me?
Doot-in doo-doo, Mussolini
Ba da da da da da da, Mussolini
You got one deed to do
And promises to keep
You’re angry and gunned-up and ready to keep
A promise you made to your dead family
Life, you loved it
All is groovy
Simon & Garfunkel
The 59th Street Bridge Song (Feelin’ Groovy)
Ann
Carney announces $35B for defence, infrastructure in Canada’s North
Funding includes building military hubs and roads, improving northern airports
I think it would be amusing if the IRGC demanded that Bibi be turned over to the International Court of Justice in addition to the demands they have already made.
Operation “Epstein Fury” is gaining traction as a name for this War although I am not sure that War is the right term with no Declaration of War and no AUMF or consultation with Congress.
Murder in the first degree with special circumstances seems inadequate, if accurate.
mrsyk
I can see this coming about. One condition for rejoining the world economy, “Turn in your war criminals.”
vidimi
I think the ICJ is too compromised for that to happen. There will need to be a redo of the Nuremberg trials, but in a newly liberated Palestine for all the Israeli war criminals. The Jaffa trials.
Ann
To all on NC: I don’t mean to post duplicate stories. I find one, I post it, but before it gets out of moderation, two more versions of the story are posted, resulting in wasted space. Sorry. I’ll try to be quicker.
The Rev Kev
There is a report that pro-Tehran militias attacked a Kurdish base in Iraq injuring six French troops and possibly destroying a helicopter.
We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise, yet, if you read the Failing New York Times, you would incorrectly think that we are not winning. Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth. We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time – Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today. They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
BP: He’s getting worse. Beyond the self-deluded hogwash, a bloodlust seems to be growing. It’s noticeabley more extreme.
The bolded section is really disturbing in anyone, much less a man with a nuclear briefcase.
Morning Yves, the post has launched very bare-bones, with a reference to an unposted article on Israel’s nukes and a truncated discussion of Blomberg.
I think it might be a misfire.
No it is not a misfire. Did you not read it? I said it would be done later than usual and EXPLICITLY told you to read the nuclear weapons post first. I had to give that a careful read and a very light edit.
Thank you for your dedication to informing us!
Thank you, Yves, as well as the commentariat.
This was my first news stop of the day long before the war, but especially so now.
What you’ve built here is rare, remarkable, and vital.
Thank you.
This can’t be said enough. Thanks Yves and team for all the work, you are an oasis of reason on the internet.
I’ll ECHO… ECho . . . . Echoo . . . . . echooo tha a a t !!!
This place has become an indispensable first stop every day for me circa Brexit. The analysis here just keeps going from strength to strength — from US elections, through Covid, Ukraine and now West Asia I’m grateful to be freed from the useless narratives endlessly parroted in the western corporate media organs. Much obliged, thanks.
‘Regional war to enter new phase soon’: Iranian security official
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/196938
I’m going to guess they’re hinting at the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and that the Houthis might be involved. I don’t believe Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti has been hit yet, but they are within range of Iranian missiles.
Once air defenses are down, this seems like it would be on the table. The question is how does Iran make it long term a response and keep it directed at US/Israel without drawing other nations to defend their economic interests? For example, could they target all US and Israel ships given the range to the other locations? Or somehow get more weapons to Yemen?
There are 3 bases in Djibouti – US base at the airport, a sprawling camp with its own Subway and Pizza Hut branches, the French base at Héron, which has been there longest and is a source of employment/money for the locals, and the recent Chinese base on the northeast side, which I don’t know much about but if they use the Chinese model, is likely fairly sealed off.
About 10 miles separates the Chinese base from the US one.
Italy, Japan & the KSA also have bases there. Helpful primer with maps:
https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/djibouti-the-tiny-valuable-nation-hosting-the-world-s-military-giants
My dad built navy missile launchers for a living and Djibouti was one of the places he did field work. It was at the time, and he retried 20 years ago, one of the few places where his ships could reload missiles. There is, or was, a missile loading dock there that would be a prime, fixed, militarily significant target similar to the one in Bahrain that appears to have been destroyed early in the conflict.
in my humble opinion the Tehran refinery attack was chemical warfare by proxy.
I agree.
I can’t think of something (short of nukes) that would galvanize the population for a long conflict more than what than that attack. Israel/Us have to know that and did it for some reason.
They did it to get internal displacement, that is Iranian refugees inside Iran.
Both as a way to demoralize the Iranian people and to put pressure on the system to provide for those refugees. And they succeeded where bombing Tehran failed.
Yes, a deliberate war crime on everything alive by empty, ugly beings
It was the equivalent of salting the earth. The Zionist entity may have signed its own death warrant by committing that atrocity.
That clip from the WSJ at the end seems to grab that imperial dominance is at stake. It’s funny to watch their conflicting viewpoints in which they struggle to prioritize “calm markets” v “imperial control”.
They seem to grasp how high the stakes are. A lot don’t. Many see this as ‘just another forever war’, like Iraq.
No way, there’s real power being contested.
They will come down on the side of imperial control eventually, they all will.
‘Mearsheimer warned that the US, which so far has checked Israel in striking Iran desalination plants and petroleum facilities, might recklessly start hitting them.’
I’m not sure this would trouble Trump. Like with oil, he said that the US had plenty of oil and gas so were not concerned about rising oil prices as it would not effect the US much. Of course Trump’s reaction to Iran going after Israel’s desalination plants and petroleum facilities might be a bit of a coin toss. Israel really pushed him into this war so would he really be concerned if they started to get heavy blowback? Everything for him is personal so he might tell himself that it serves them right for the trouble that they got him into.
Not sure how the US survives $10+ gallon gas with its sprawling, mass transit unserved cities, and most (>60% unable to afford a $400 emergency – if people cannot afford gas to get to work, they do not work. Oh, I see, Trump cannot be troubled by a US economic collapse – but what about the other oligarchs?
Contrary to the Bearded One the preservation of political and military power is it’s own reward and at the end of the day more important than all corporate profits in the world.
Even the billionaire class will agree to that. Or especially them.
Upholding the Empire’s military dominance isn’t everything, but without imperial dominance intact all else is nothing.
I did not bookmark, but I found a response from Iran to Oman intermediary on talks.
Iran response: “Not while Israel exists”.
If this is factual, what did Trump and Bibi do?
I thought it interesting this hasn’t been emphasized, given the Zionist persecution complex, that along with the messianic complex is the carrot and stick driving this cult, but the possibility it could actually happen, while eliminating Iran is not, would be a reason to steer around it.
>> what extent the US can operate from its 27 bases in the region
IMO, the even bigger problem is the people/soldiers. Eg, a THAAD battery has ~100 soldiers.
Assuming for argument’s sake that the equipment stayed pristine over the past two weeks (with infinite stocks), those soldiers are tired—probably have been given micro-doses of amphetamines to stay awake. The Army does not have a “blue crew v. gold crew” rotation system (see US Navy subs) with its equipment.
Multiply this by every American air, land, sea unit in the region. Tired people = less efficiency + higher odds of self-inflicted accidents.
Apologies for being really late. Post done now. Please refresh your browsers and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
Apologies are unnecessary, Yves. The work you do, along with that of the commentariat you’ve brought together, is terribly important and encouraging, in the full sense of that word.
There is no better one-stop commentary anywhere. Thanks for filling my days with information.
Yves, You shouldn’t apologize because you haven’t done anything wrong. It seems like no one else in the US centric media space cares about accuracy or detailed analysis with respect this mess. Thanks so much for all the effort.
Make that Western-centric media space.
No need. As far as I can tell, you’re working like a dog to help all of your readers be the best able to see through the dense fog of this war. First thing I look at each day, thanks so much.
Unique and very important work being done by yourself, and the commentariat. I’m so grateful for this place.
This site comes through and offers a few headline news type stories from the Iranian side.
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en
And bringing proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq into the fight may be why Iran has saved the main blow against Israel for last. If it be nukes per today’s scary story then other countries will have to be nuked as well.
Of course the very name Samson Option implies that the nukes are a take revenge on the world weapon more than military. Their very use would be more Kamikaze than Clausewitz.
are people adopting the Western identifiers? “proxies”? Hexbollah is a movement born out of Lebanon occupation, Hamas out of Palestinian occupation, Huties out of KSA interference. They are pretty much their own people and act according to their own agendas.
You’re right. Allies would have been the correct word.
This is definitely getting into the Mouse that Roared territory. Iran has been isolated and punished by the west for nearly half a century for the high crime of not being a vassal state and so does not have many friends. What it does have is a lot of oil which has made them a target as admitted by people like Trump and Lindsey Graham who expects to make a ton of money out of Iran. And yet this mouse of a country has not only gone toe to toe with both the US and Israel but has also gotten a choke-hold on the world’s economy to the point that we could easily see a world wide-recession if this war keeps up. And they do not even have a “Q” bomb. At the same time they are demilitarizing the US and Israel of whole classes of advanced weaponry and if it keeps up, we might see a nasty outbreak of peace when this is all over.
Mouse that roared, or David and Goliath, one of Zionists’ foundational stories?
Queue (Q?) up the joke about the most important body organ.
With Iran shutting lots of things down, the consequences are severe.
We know that North Korea sent about a brigade to a division to Russia, where its soldiers participated in repulsing the Ukrainian offensive on Kursk. This enabled the North Korean army to acquire valuable know-how about how military units deal with a modern war characterized by drone-infested battlefields, systematic interdiction by artillery, unforeseeable mining, infiltration by small units, and so on.
The companion article recommended by Yves as a preliminary reading to this one mentions that North Korea is suspected to have developed an atomic bomb for Iran, which should already have been paid for and is waiting for a rather difficult and improbable delivery.
Which makes me think: could North Korea — which heaped official abuse on Israel and the USA for starting the war — have dispatched some observers to Tehran in order to learn how to wage a missile war?
They would be remiss if they didn’t: there are many characteristics their militaries share–heavy dependence on missiles, unexpectedly high (from the Western perspective), but highly indigenous technical knowhow, heVy use of underground facilities….
I see they’re calling it the Ramadan Miracle in Iran. Let’s hope that’s the name that’s written into history.
At 92 million in a country almost the size of western Europe, that’s some mouse!
It also has enviable geography, both in terms of location and elevation.
There’s a reason that there’s been a unified state there for thousands of years, eh?
Oh — and the Americans aren’t the first empire whose noses they’ve bloodied …
“The IRGC said it would turn its attention more to Israel now.”
And that would be getting to the nitty gritty to see how long the conflict this year lasts.
I find it interesting that Iran’s new leader releases his speech 10 minutes before the US market open:
Here is a flash news summary of the speech.
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: Strait Of Hormuz Must Be Kept Closed
– Calls For Unity Among People, Calls For Participation On Quds Day
– We Have Thwarted The Attempt To Divide Iran
– All US Bases Should Immediately Be Closed In The Region And Those Bases Will Be Attacked
Might be of interest that those points of emphasis align with those in the fatwa issued by Ayatollah Sistani a few days ago but also add an offensive component. Like Sistani he stresses unity and participation in demonstrations and then goes on to calling for attacks on US bases, which I don’t believe Sistani specifically addressed.
I still have a gut feeling that Iran’s current approach regarding the Strait of Hormuz is not enough. If I were in their position, I would say to China and Russia: A global superpower is coming for us. We have no other option but to mine the Strait of Hormuz. You are focused on protecting your business interests, while we are fighting for our survival. By mining the Strait, Iran could force USA, Israel and gulf state to start real peace talk . Even with the Strait mined, the USA would likely hold back from an all out response because Iran still holds two strategic cards it could play at any time. Iran has the capability to destroy all critical oil infrastructure across the Gulf and Iran possesses sufficient firepower to severely damage Israel but would likely reserve this option only as a last resort, for example, if Israel were to use nuclear weapons.
No they want to let some tankers transit. Like China and their own. Mining is up the escalation ladder.
Currently watching Alex Karp taking credit for Palantir super charging US war fighting capabilities including fast and accurate targeting, adding lethality. Don’t think this will age well.
Interesting slip. I think Silicon Valley, “like every other part of government, I mean every other industry.”
He opined that China and Russia are seeing what we are doing in this war compared to Afghanistan and seeing capabilities they can’t match.
Very interesting slip, indeed.
Consider that Big Tech has been de facto, if not de jure, nationalized by the US Government. It explains a lot – the spying, the shilling for Big Government, the censorship on COVID, the love-fest with the MIC.
Except, unlike the nationalized industries of old, these ones are run for private interests, not the public.
Maybe a slip for ‘the masses’, but realists and I’m guessing the majority of NC readers are quite aware the seed money for all of them came from the CIA.
Fast and accurate targeting… Like schools with kids in them?
I found extremely interesting the France 24 video and the report on Netanyahoo “not worrying anymore about law”. Israel, it seems, in advanced state of “fascistization” (take it as it is, a weird adjective with a meaning still to be defined precisely depending on how things go on).
When Israelis finally emerge from their bomb shelters when this war is over, they may not recognize their country anymore and I am not talking about the bomb damage. If Netanyahu turns the country into full fascism in order to protect his personal position, then that is when the real brain drain will occur as ordinary Israelis will flee to other countries for the sake of their families as well as themselves. The irony would be truly epic as the grandparents of many of them fled Germany when it turned fully fascist back in the 30s.
History rhymin’ and all that.
Although the discussion of drones is correct, it also is so wrong and a prime example of why the US (as Andrei Martyanov opines non-stop) doctrine is 50 years outdated.
Shahed’s are more useful than the uber-expensive (rare-earth costly) Reapers (300 made) that Iran is rapidly attriting – I think ~2 per day per Larry Johnson; however, there is a reason the Ukrainian killing fields are saturated with fiber optics 20-30 km deep, infantry uses motorbikes, and Russia fields effective drone operator hunter teams. To date, Iran is solely using drones for attacking stationary facilities – addressing moving formations is much more complicated, and has rewritten Russian doctrine based on Ukraine. From doctrine comes strategy, and strategy dictates tactics. The US has no strategy in this (weekend!) war – just tactics. It’s self-evident that Iran will implement Russian learnings and has/can receive drones for use against US armor, light infantry, and small formations, and certainly Russian trainers in the latest tactics and strategy.
So here is my question: Does Iranian doctrine involve Hezbollah implementing the latest drone strategy in the one West Asian place the US cannot withdraw from, irrespective of the cost, Israel? Does it involve dropping munitions over, say, Oman (et al.) military, if they stand against Shiite protestors overrunning the palace?
As Scott Ritter has noted many times, the US is experimenting with some (not much) success at dropping a grenade from a drone! In recent army tests, the selected vendor drones attacked friendly forces, crashed, and generally (in an ideal test setting) failed embarrassingly. Another Wonderwaffen failure in the making!
Here is an important question: why have drones become so dominant (the low-altitude economy) in the last decade? Rare Earth magnets power/weight motors (and many other components) for which China has a monopoly / near monopoly (Russia maintains its own logistics).
Hezbollah is fielding anti-armor drones.
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/hezbollah-iran-almas3-drone-anti-tank-missile-israel-lebanon-conflict/
Side note: the last clip from JaKanta above reports $93 billion (with a b) on fine dining spent by the war department in September 2025 – that’s an annualized (not realistic, but still!!!) trillion – or the entire official budget.
I would as a power EE say that rare earth DC motors, potent Mosfet driver circuits, and huge advances in LIion battery power density make them much more effective than in the past.
Think greater payload and range. I see this next door as a house is being built. Most of the power tools that used to AC cord powered are now battery driven. Even the Skilsaw, a real power eater.
And for Shaheds, Postel was recently in DD’s show pointing out that the IR seeker head for a Shahed type drone can be purchased off the shelf for a couple of hundred $$
Was it Arelien who memed “The democratization of missile-ing”?
Electronic Intifada is reporting the Shahed has 2500 km range (cypress), The US Shahed copy drones bravely used to “hit” Iran is only 600 km, so it could not have reached Iran. Except maybe the northwestern Kurdish border if launched from Kurdish Iraq. My SWAG is they ran out of fuel over the Iraqi desert – Iraq is busy rocketing the US bases continuously, so they are not going on a road trip to get close enough to Iran to launch.
The tiny drones are getting a lot of publicity, because they are new, they do have an effect, they are personal and there’s plenty of them.
They still do have a short range and carry a very small payload, a hand grenade or an RPG warhead. Less than two pounds of explosives.
In Ukraine, behind the headlines, compared to the amount of explosives delivered every day by artillery, rockets and bombs the FPV drones are just a fraction of a fraction. One, single FAB 3000 delivers same amount of destruction as about 2000 FPV drones. And then some, I doubt 2000 tiny drones can bring a city block down.
Now, a basic version of Shaheed drone carries around 100 pounds of payload for several hundred miles, so it’s basically an el cheapo cruise missile: relatively slow and inefficient against hard targets. But it has turned out there are a plenty of targets that are not hard and also definitely not worth a $2.5 million missile.
I believe the difference between artillery and fpv drones on the Ukraine war front lines is that with drones you have the precision to hunt directly into the trenches. An artillery strike while much larger may not be as effective if the troops are dug in. It basically means that you can’t hide anywhere on the battlefield even deep in the rear.
Yes, many distressing videos on Twitter of drones chasing soldiers and cars and blowing them up.
For years now I’ve come back to the chart of “history of world’s reserve currencies” when trying to understand where we are, where we are going. (Thank you Nicole Foss, wherever you are …)
Nobody wants to hear it.
The third generation destroys what grandpa built? Simplistic, yes, but not as simple as Ad Hominem attacks that pass for analysis.
Sheesh those get tiresome…
NC is an amazing site, amazing commentariot – ¡muchas gracias!
‘The third generation destroys what grandpa built?’
What you are talking about is the proverb of “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations”. It seems even the Chinese have noted this phenomena and talk about rice paddy to rice paddy in three generations.
There is a saying in Saudi Arabia that goes in that direction, though with a slightly different tone (has to do with exhaustion of oil reserves and money having been squandered):
My grandfathers drove camels; my father drives a car; I pilot an airplane; my sons will drive camels.
It should be “rode camels” and “will ride camels”, but readers probably got the gist.
There are almost identical proverbs in quite a few different cultures. Thd magic number (of generations before family wealth disappears) always seems to be 3. I wonder if there’s a reason for that, other than it’s easy for people to grasp.
France 24 video.
I agree with Yves Smith. Start listening at 2:35 to Noga Tarnopolsky describing the detachment of the Israeli government from the populace, the lawlessness, and the shock !!! that Israel is not a democracy — even as the illegal settlers in an apartheid state descend to slaughter Palestinians in the West Bank.
A bracing side of this war is the sheer cowardice: Trump, the very name of cowardice. Hillary, who else?, appearing on TV to blab more about her adoration of wars — Hillary the very name of cowardice. The Netanyahu family, now ensconced in a T.G.I.F. in Miami. I note that the egregious Peter Thiel is here in Italy blabbering about the antichrist.
One recalls Dolores Ibarruri. And FDR: “We, too, born to freedom, and believing in freedom, are willing to fight to maintain freedom. We, and all others who believe as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees.”
No matter what one thinks of the government of the Islamic Republic, the Iranians have met oppression by outsiders with dignity.
The “West”? “The Hollow Men” by T.S. Eliot
For Thine is
Life is
For Thine is the
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Thank you, Yves, again. Spectacular work you and Team NC are doing.
> Troublingly, the Wall Street Journal is pushing the Trump Administration in that direction, by insisting that it not back down in a conflict it cannot win.
Yes. Otoh, the two paras from WSJ you provided show that some at the WSJ understand the true nature of the conflict, as Larry Johnson puts it. Well, not really but one important aspect of its nature: that US/Israel started something they don’t have the power to stop. And WSJ is educating investors about that by publishing this a piece.
Energy Secretary Wright says U.S. ‘not ready’ to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz yet
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/energy-secretary-wright-says-us-not-ready-to-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-yet.html
Some pretty good (inadvertent?) trolling by CNBC:
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/177281#
“Washington’s interest in Iran’s Shahed-136 is unusual and, in some respects, unprecedented.”
I don’t know if these views will be classified as precedents, but here it goes…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/u-military-used-long-range-222540687.html/
“…As we have explained for years, the Shahed was based on an Israel concept, which also has roots in a German concept. So it is a complicated lineage for sure…”
https://en.defenceua.com/news/first_shahed_136_prototype_was_created_in_germany_in_the_1980s_and_it_was_called_dar-8560.html/
“…The history of DAR is actually pretty interesting and worth a closer dive into the topic.
In mid-1980s, Germany and the USA commenced a joint project aimed to create a specialized single-use UAV that would be able to target Soviet radars, become a decoy averting enemy air defenses from real weapons, or wipe anti-aircraft systems altogether in a “fire-and-forget” way.
German aircraft manufacturer Dornier (existed: 1922– 2002) came out as winner of the competition for the contract, their product was known as Die Drohne Antiradar, the production process also implemented some technologies developed by Texas Instruments.
According to openly available data, DAR was an explosive aerial suicide drone with a weight 110 kg, maximum speed 250 km/h (155 mph), flight duration up to 3 hours, thus the potential range should be around 600 km; the engine was supplied by Fichtel and Sachs — now it’s making solely car engines…”
Something analogous to Geran drones existed since, in a manner of speaking, at least WW2 if not much earlier. The first radio-cintrolled unmanned plane with a bomb was used in 1917, during WW1, I think? “Mistletoes,” unmanned radio-controlled planes with bombs were used as precision guided munitions by Germany, etc. The only difference is that “planes” have gotten cheaper and controls became more sophisticated.
It occurs to me that there is another, very analogous weapon, that US has copied, with an analogous history: the RPG7 rocket launcher. But while they are used by literal millions by US’s adversaries, they are used only by special ops, I think? If course, RPG7 really is a simple stuff that’s really the love child betwen American bazooka and German panzerfaust, both of WW2 vintage.
For those who are unwilling to jump through hoops to the Foreign Affairs drone article, there’s an earlier read on the LUCAS drones at https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2026/02/shahed-drone-meets-clone-us-iran-exchange-strikes/411785/ The US first deployed them to the Middle East last December.
Russia and Iran have been iterating on the drone over the last four years in Ukraine. Russia aimed to produce 25,000 a year, the article provides an estimate of 18,540.
Trump absurdities, Thursday edition:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116216383667242591
The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stoping an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World. I won’t ever let that happen! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Who is this “we“?
[Insert Carlin quote here 🙂]
Dogs won’t like this dog food one little bit.
I thought the Soviet Union was the Evil Empire. So many Evil Empires, so little time.
Alternately Trump doesn’t even have enough brains to make up his own blather and has to steal from Reagan.
Michael Hudson was pushing the idea that a Hormuz closure would benefit Trump’s oil industry supporters and might be a plan if Trump had a plan which he doesn’t. Arguably his real plan is to avoid impeachment and eternal infamy and that isn’t working out either.
The USA i s the largest refiner of petroleum products in the world. Fourty percent of its unrefined oil arrives via Canada (tar sands). So when oil goes up Canada takes its cut.
(The price of a gallon of gasoline at my local station has moved from $4.17 to $4.89 in two weeks. I’m not making bank off of this increase, Grump!)
More from this good writer.
https://indi.ca/how-iran-has-strategically-won/
Of course the problem for those of us who love animal metaphors is that the above author’s dog may be a lot more sensible than an old man president with a brain stuffed full of Fox News and advisers like Lindsey who are chicken hawks right down to the ground.
The American public on the other hand are more than happy to give that fierce cat its space. We are in vast danger from all those DC swamp creatures who don’t seem to understand the ways of nature. Trump played on these fears and then became the thing he claimed to be against.
Escalation Ladder [Trita Parsi] 12 March 2026
Thanks! Trita Parsi is alway worth a listen or read.
Wowsers, I am only partway through but Parsi seems unmoored. His ideas for a resolution are….sort of shocking. He’s a very rational and it seems decent person and I think cannot cope cognitively with how deranged and terrible things are.
Yeah I had a similar impression when he briefly spoke with USEFUL IDITOS one week ago:
TC: 1:03:20
https://www.usefulidiotspodcast.com/p/iran-update-with-iran-experts-negar
Some problems: Parsi has next to nothing to say about Israel’s damage tolerance. The focus is on the US and Iran, Iranian infrastructure getting destroyed vs. disruption of the world economy. He also says nothing about how much China and Russia, particularly the former, would be willing to help Iran rebuild and how that shapes Iran’s damage tolerance.
A China rebuild would be state of the art.
I followed him until the run up to the war. Does not appear to be a good faith actor.
Thanks. Parsi’s comments on pain tolerance are on point. The home court would indicate advantage Iran here. I think his observations on escalation, are accurate as well. Interestingly, no mention of Hezbollah or the emerging ground war on the northern frontier.
I don’t get this part though, Even when it comes to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it is essentially a virtual closure. They are not actually sinking any ships. They are not even shooting at them yet. Once they do that, it will be a completely different scenario., aren’t we there already?
I think he’s smart and well informed, but seemed pretty obvious that his sympathies were with the monarchists and it seemed to color his assessments. Just my personal opinion.
I always recall Pat Lang’s advice on intelligence: you must assess the message and the messenger separately. Untrustworthy people can provide good info, and credible people can give bad info.
Don’t know much of the author and I appreciate the additional color.
That last part is good advice, I agree.
Yes, but consequences have systematically non-adhered to the demographic Parsi occupies at least since Bush Sr. was voted out for breaking a promise, so the skillset for prognosticating consequences is underdeveloped.
The reality detachment of the embubbled is vast, the bubble walls so thick they distort the view of everything external.
Good faith? Yes. Delusional? Also.
The Russians and Chinese abstaining in the UN resolution is interesting. It seems like the US Iran war may have a similar effect as the Italians invading Ethiopia did. Everyone already knew that international law was dead by then but the Italians actions really brought it to the surface. It became pure power geopolitics after that, as the British really were left with a Hobson’s choice because they still were hopeful for Mussolini support against Hitler.
I also have followed John Helmer with a lot of interest over the last few months. If he is to be believed the Russian-Chinese positions are not as aligned as people think. Is what we are seeing jockeying of positions before the big war similar to what occurred between 1935-1938? When you dig deeper into the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact you really get the picture that both Stalin and Hitler were jockeying for position to get the western powers on their side. Stalin was working more towards influencing the British French and American left with his actions in the Spanish civil war than any real help to the republicans in Spain. And Hitler always dreamed that he could be the continental power with Britain maintaining the sea. His actions at Dunkirk seem to back that up as he could have given a decisive blow to the British right then and there.
Not to simplify things to much, but if the only thing that matters at this point in the war is pure power and there are three major world powers, the best chance for the 3rd strongest is to align with the 2nd strongest because if they align with the strongest they will be swallowed up shortly after the 2nd power is defeated. Clearly to me Russia is the 3rd power here, we just don’t know who is 1 and 2. I would say the Chinese are 1 but I’m not sure. Perhaps Putin is still moving towards the Americans because he realizes this and is not satisfied with the Chinese sitting back with no skin in the game. They both seem to distrust that the other won’t make a deal with the Americans behind their back.
Like the Italians found themselves to be vassals of a larger power shortly after their war in Ethiopia, after this iteration in the Middle East is paused, the Iranians and Israel may find they are in fact just vassals of the bigger powers. I wish this wasn’t true regarding Iran, because I admire how well they have planned this war basically independent of any other major world powers, but I feel it is.
Interesting premise for sure.
Russia already knows that the US’ word isn’t worth squat so I doubt Putin really has any intentions of partnering with them for anything. They do have the power to end the world if they chose.
China, however, knows how much hurt they can cause so they really don’t care about US promises as they have the means to pull the plug on everything from debt to minerals.
The third act of the play will be very interesting.
Before the war, Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles, with ranges from a few hundred kilometers to more than 2,000. So far, it’s fired about 700. ..
Wasn’t Bloomberg one of those sources who kept telling us from 2022 onwards that Russia was running out of missiles and artillery? I recall Larry Johnson stating it could be as high as 20,000. If I wanted to educate my audience, rather than make a definitive statement, I might provide an estimate and most importantly, the sourcing for my estimate. Otherwise, it is like those Ukrainian casualty numbers, where they attribute their actual casualty count to the Russian side.
I found this source, which from the logo on down is clearly shilling for US/Israel:
https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/irans-missile-firepower-has-almost-run-out/
Contra Bloomberg, they are estimating Iran had well over 2,500 ballistic missiles before the conflict began on the low end of the estimate.
If we assert this source is clearly hasbara, what does that make Bloomberg, which is even more halcyon?
The unknown unknown in this conflict is Iran’s existing ballistic missile stocks. If these estimates are off significantly, better abandon all hope.
Also, Iranian production rate, which is certainly being accelerated. If Larry Johnson is right, it could be 100-200 per month (to reach 20,000 in a decade) with order magnitude(s) higher drone production. In such case Iran (like Russia) has sustainable bombardment from production immune to air interdiction (and potentially infinite resupply from China and Russia (by rail).
A better question (Put on my Clausewitz hat) is how many 1-3 ton MRV missiles are needed to Gaza-fy Israeli cities (with no water/power) + Gulf cities (with no water/power) + US bases (with no water/power) and achieve Iranian war aims – US retreat from the region permanently? Seems to me far less than 20,000.
I am afraid that we may have a definitive answer to your question before this conflict ends.
Yeah, the propaganda is strong in that article. But just as a simple thought experiment…
Let’s say the Iranians fire 2 missiles per hour at Israel, every day, for 30 days. That’s 2x24x30 = 1440 missiles. Leaving the Iranians roughly 1000 missiles in stock based on western friendly public estimates. Let’s assume that each missiles requires ONLY two interceptors to be releases to defeat them. Do the US and Israel have another 2880 interceptors on hand in the Middle East? What happens if the Iranians mix the missiles with drones which they have lots of? What happens if the missiles require 3 or more interceptors to defeat them? Do the US and Israel have 4320 interceptors in the Middle East right now?
I think the answer is pretty clearly the US and Israel do not have the capacity to handle attacks with that kind of regularity. I think one reason why Iran is not doing something like that now is because some launch sites have been taken out and they are still working over other targets. Once they decide to focus purely on Israel and they have cleared the interceptor stock from Israel, even by friendly estimates, Israel is screwed.
Marandi today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENz2Lbn66o0
Speaking of whom: Prof. Marandi was interviewed by George Galloway yesterday, where Galloway credited him for predicting everything that is happening now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzcT6kIjh8A
From what I can tell, Marandi is a truly extraordinary person. As a young man fighting against the western-backed Iraqis, he was a victim of chemical weapons attacks, at least once. He was also shot, and if I recall, he still has shrapnel in his leg. He mentioned that he is in Tehran, and has been out in the streets with large crowds expressing support for the Iranian government. This during bombardments and attacks. He also said no one in the crowd even flinched during the bombardment.
Not only a brilliant analyst, he is fearless, and steadfast on a personal level. He does us a service, as well as the Iranian people. Iran should award him with a special honor.
Prof. Marandi shows himself to be a man of humanity, clear thought, honor, and courage who simply but eloquently recounts life today in Tehran. You may already know, but, IIRC, he was born in the US and spent the first 10-12 years there before returning to his family’s native Iran. Compare his exposition of his countrymens’ nuanced reactions to US aggression with Trump/Hegseth/etc. boundless and inhuman viciousness in pursuing a purposeless war. We are privileged to hear his voice.
Please don’t raise his stature too high, or the “most-moral-army-in-the-world” will start targeting him for murder.
This is every Iranian I’ve ever encountered, though.
When a people is attacked by Israel and the US for 70+ years they’ll tend to lose their fear of both. Same with Gazans, Lebanese, Syrians, etc. The strategy of “Mowing the lawn” will eventually destroy Israel.
Thank you. I have a deep respect for this man.
M, “They (Iran) have plans to continue this war until after the (US)midterm elections.” I bet they do.
He comments on fear mongering and false flag potential, regarding the “drone strikes on California” cray cray at around the 18th minute.
Much of this talk is about the resilience of the Iranian population, something that seems to have been overlooked by team z.
The story about possible Iranian drone strikes on California is just the latest in a train of terror war propaganda in the state. My favorite was the miniature golf course in San Jose being listed as a potential terror strike target after 9-11. (The manager at the golf course said Winchester Mystery House was a much likelier target.) Even their US Reps couldn’t get the target nomination off, and it took years before it was finally dropped.
The there was the front page story in the SF Chronicle about an AlQaida plot to bring an explosive-laden boat alongside the Dumbarton Bridge to blow it sky-high, with exactly zero sourcing. A couple years later we found out there was indeed no basis for the story.
Everybody remember the color-coded terror alerts at the airport? Same hooey; even Bush’s homeland security head tried to get them stopped, to no avail. At least we’ve been through it before and can spot it easily now.
Trump Leaves Allies With Whiplash After Video Call on Iran
https://newrepublic.com/post/207672/trump-allies-whiplash-g7-call-iran
“Trump sent mixed signals to the leaders of the world’s seven leading economies in a video call hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, unnamed sources told Axios. These sources said that Trump was “ambiguous and noncommittal,” leaving some on the call thinking that he wants a quick end to hostilities, while others thought that he was digging in for a long war. “
Trump sent mixed signals to the leaders of the world’s seven leading economies. I don’t think China, Russia, and India were on the call…
Iran won’t surrender “in a million years,” analyst says, warning regime could push for nuclear weapons
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-wont-surrender-nuclear-weapons/
Iran won’t surrender. At the end of the day, war depends on a 22 y.o. walking into the enemy leader’s office and planting a flag.
Never going to happen versus Iran. Geography + lack of American warm bodies + 25 years of post-9/11 DC grift (Cold War contractor grift looks quaint by comparison)
I agree with this view. From the Trita Parsi piece linked in Steve h’s comment above, on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei,
this is the Supreme Leader who came to his position as a result of Israel and the United States killing his father, his mother, his wife and his child. I don’t think he’s going to be in a reconciliatory mood for quite some time.
Iran has just demanded what is sure to the least it will accept to stop the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lead headline at the Aljazeera live feed:
And
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/12/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-iraq-tehran-sets-3-conditions-for-peace
The US and Israel’s message is overwhelming shock, awe, and destruction, often explicitly targeting civilians on a massive scale.
Iran’s message is disciplined, proportional response, explicitly avoiding intentional attacks on civilians.
That alone speaks volumes.
Did you not read the post? As of yesterday, Iran explicitly said no more proportional response:
“Iran quickly started attacking American banks in the Gulf region.”
Did you intend to say they quickly threatened to hit American banks? I cant find any sources confirming american banks have already been hit. Or was it a reference to some sort cyber attacks that have already been conducted on American banks? Regardless, many thanks for the work you and the rest of the NC team have been doing.
There was a comment by a YouTuber to that effect which I should have verified. However, Iran got some banks to shut down via evacuation:
The compensation terms have the character of a “bring it on” challenge to Iran’s adversaries — the more damage done to Iran, the more compensation (either positive or negative) will be required to end the conflict.
Thanks Yves, I just saw that, so much for ending the war on US terms eh. The incompetence, recklessness, and outright bufoonery of the US regime is getting harder to deny, even in the mass media cartel. I can’t help but be worried, but I tend to be a bit pessimistic. However, I don’t see much to be optimistic about.
To ensure the US does not return (its already left), Iran needs bases (sovereign territory) on both sides of the Persian Gulf – that could easily begin to meet the reparations (especially if built by the Gulfies money).
Eventually, the US will have a choice: 1. Seize the Straits of Hormuz (yes, its a losing strategy – once the US seizes the tiger, what’s the cost to keep it?) 2. Abandon the Middle East (and Israel). We already know Israel can force the US (blackmail?) to make any sacrifice (east asian allies hello!) – Iran will rubble those bases into unusuability as a bridgehead pronto – meanwhile attacking Israel brings US mobile air defense (carriers) to the Med and out of the fight and not protecting the abandoned bases.
Kinda interesting — these are demands the US is unwilling to meet. Much like Russia in Ukraine, Iran is establishing facts on the ground.
I’m not sure there’s a happy ending here. Iran probably holds all the cards.
I heard Prof Marandi tell Glen Diesen the other day that Iran would receive “compensation” from their enemies and I thought he was dreaming, or at least slightly exaggerating.
But, there you go, that’s the official confirmation right there.
US and Israel are in big trouble now.
Like Ukraine, the losing side doesn’t dictate terms.
I don’t know what this particular Substack author specifically refers to, but the Russian Ministry of Transportation has spent much of the week reporting in detail on Aeroflot flights from the UAE and other Arab countries. Yesterday, for instance, they said the following (https://t.me/MariaVladimirovnaZakharova/12504#):
I mean, it sounds like they’ll continue to do a handful of scheduled UAE flights for now…though “card subject to change”, of course. And they’d certainly spent the past week doing 28+ flights a day.
Parenthetically, a day or two ago I’d gotten in touch with one of my regular contacts in Russia. She had been planning a holiday with her daughter in Dubai “some time in March”; she has now triumphantly informed me, that Dubai is “off”, and instead they are going on a holiday to China. I am fairly certain they are not the only upper-middle-class Russian tourists who have had that very same thought. Way to stick it to the Chinese, Trumpie-boy…
Emirates is doing its best to operate as normal, given the givens…and they are the biggest carrier in the region. But he should have parsed things out better.
https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2026/03/12/emirates-flight-attendants-face-tough-choices-as-iranian-drone-attacks-fall-near-dubai-international-airport/
To your general point, Walmsley is a huge China booster, to the degree that I have to question many of his posts.
Trump Says He Knows Where Iran Sleeper Cells Are—But Won’t Arrest Them
Donald Trump assured reporters he was absolutely on top of it.
https://newrepublic.com/post/207675/donald-trump-iran-sleeper-cells
Lol, Trump being Trump. No need to arrest them. Why would Iran provide any fuel for a U.S. “rally about the flag” moment?
Fetterman on Iran’s new supreme leader: ‘They should kill him, too’
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5780613-fetterman-on-irans-new-supreme-leader-they-should-kill-him-too/
We Ali’ed Ali. We’ll Hussein his son, too.
Spoken by an ignorant git.
Fetterman is dueling with Graham for the most ghoulish human being.
There”s a lot of competition there. Graham is just the pathetic-coward poster-boy, I would say most of Congress thinks the same, but don’t say it out loud, or at least not as blatantly.
The cartoon-character Crusader Pete, with his Knights Templar Cross tattoos, and “kill em all” attitude must qualify for top 5 for most sadistic ghouls
Speaking of ghouls, isn’t that stephen miller over there, nosing out from behind the curtain? He gives the rest of the creeps, the creeps.
Phil Harper “The Digger” has an extensively foot-noted sub up on the events and status of the war, up to the beginning yesterday of the tanker war.
Harper and family were in Bahrain when it all went off, had to get cab rides overland to Oman to get out.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-190639101
Thank you marku52.
Very good overview.
“The Netherlands and Iceland have filed declarations of intervention in the genocide case brought by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the court announced Thursday.”
Even as the US is pressuring the world to support Israel and it’s insane war, this is a good sign indeed.
interesting, if true
It is true.
DECLARATION OF INTERVENTION PURSUANT TO ARTICLE 63 OF THE STATUTE OF THE COURT BY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS
DECLARATION OF INTERVENTION BY THE GOVERNMENT OF ICELAND PURSUANT TO ARTICLE 63 OF THE STATUTE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE
Excellent, thank you.
Paraguay also submitted a Declaration of Intervention on the 3rd and the number of countries who have submitted Declarations of Intervention is now up to 18 (Colombia, Libya, Mexico, Palestine, Spain, Türkiye, Chile, Maldives, Bolivia, Ireland, Cuba, Belize, Brazil, Comoros, Belgium, Paraguay, Netherlands and Iceland).
John Fetterman Says Iran Girls’ School Strike Is Just a Leftist Craze
https://newrepublic.com/post/207677/john-fetterman-iran-girls-school-strike
“Senator John Fetterman appeared not to understand why Democrats want to investigate the deadly strike that killed dozens of Iranian children.”
On March 8th JERUSALEM POST claimed Iran’s Aerospace Headquarters had been hit.
https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-889267
German news expanded that to “IDF claims destruction of” quoting an IDF official.
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Israel-will-Irans-Weltraum-Zentrale-zerstoert-haben-id30444978.html
Is this confirmed?
What is the bet that that building was empty and that Iran’s Aerospace Headquarters is operating underground somewhere.
That would be the first assumption serious reporters should have made.
At least check if there is any confirmation from a decent non-US/ISR source before I report it.
But hey, this is just us having very deranged thoughst, right?!
There’s certainly is bigotry in the United States attitude about its own weaponry, just the same as there is bigotry in Germany’s attitude about its cars, or France’s attitude about its food. There may have been a time when the United States attitude was justified, perhaps during World War II and immediately after. However, I think the sweetheart arrangement between the US government and the US military industrial complex is probably the main motivating factor in the continuous proclamations about the superiority of US weapons, and it’s very easy to sell people the idea your stuff is the best as long as it’s never used.
One of the eye-opening features of the Ukraine war has certainly been how poorly US and European weapons have performed on a modern battlefield against a peer force. I’m not sure how much of this was a genuine surprise to manufacturers, but it has certainly been impossible to ignore. My guess is they are now frantically scrambling to find ways to save their businesses, especially their export businesses, and copying what the winner is doing is certainly a legitimate business tactic.
No, this is bigotry with respect to Iran: Orientalism, the leaders being beardos in robes…
With Russia, it’s the stereotypes of Slavs being at best one step (erm, steppe) removed from Mongols or Vandals sweeping in on horses to pillage.
I had meant to thank you for that line earlier, but got lost in the info drop. Sure helps explain the lack of planning.
Americans, and presumably Israelis, are attacking the PMF, the Hashad-al-Shabi Shia militias which were folded into the Iraqi state armed forces. This means that American and Israeli forces are attacking the Iraqi state. The Iraqi government can’t do much about this, because the oil revenues it relies on run through Washington. But it’s interesting that in all the bluster about the Iranians supposedly attacking their neighbors for no reported reason, I haven’t seen any comment on this. The Hashad-al-Shabi, with IRGC help, were crucial in burying ISIS. It’s a bit like that saying about the West never having forgiven the Soviets for defeating fascism.
Iraqi Shia militias reportedly have warned Jolani that if Syria moves to intervene in Lebanon they will eliminate his regime. The US grip on Iraq may be tenuous, as is Israel’s in Syria.
Do you have a link? This would be delicious.
Treat as unconfirmed. Pretty sure I saw it on X from a credible but not official source. There is good info there but Elon seems to be scrambling the feeds and I couldn’t find it, should have bookmarked.
Hard to search for because the resistance and the leader all go by different names.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iraqi-resistance-warns-al-sharaa–attack-on-lebanon-means-wa
Wouldn’t be beyond Iran’s ability to drop a missile atop the Presidential palace in Syria as a warning.
The story in The Cradle, citing Al-Hurra, two days ago, about the Iraqi army coming under fire from an Israeli force, has one detail added today — Iraqi Shiite units are attacking them.
“Freedom Is Not Free”: GOP Senator Tells People to Get Over Gas Prices
Senator Roger Marshall said it was simply a “sacrifice” people would have to make.
https://newrepublic.com/post/207624/maga-senators-donald-trump-iran-gas-prices
“Freedom is not free,” Lord North’s message on the tea taxes.
“Freedom is not free,” it’s $9.99 at the quickie mart, printed on a bumper sticker.
If you think a gallon of gas is too high, imagine how much going forward APAIC will have to spend to keep buying 98 Senators?
*cheesy country voice*
Freedom isn’t free…
It costs a heavy fuckin fee…
– TEAM AMERICA: WORLD POLICE
Iran keeps oil flowing to China as Hormuz pressure forces reserve release
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603122164?source=share-link
This is Iranian oil, not Gulf State oil. My takeaway is that Iran is still loading and shipping oil to China despite the bombardment at a level around two thirds normal. The conclusion is a bit weak in its conflating Gulf State production risk with Iranian production risk.
The war’s central energy paradox is that Iran cannot fully shut global oil flows without hurting itself, yet it has shown it can make the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz dangerous enough to rattle markets and force governments to act, even while keeping a substantial share of its own exports – mainly to China – moving.
Waiting for Trump to start seizing oil tankers at sea heading to China out of petulance.
This is interesting:
It will still be impossible to export the aluminum by ship, presumably. Is their plan to just dump it outdoors in a huge pile until the Strait of Hormuz reopens? Aluminum is quite weather resistant, I believe.
Weird times.
Pure aluminium exposed to the atmosphere almost immediately acquires a surface coating of easily removed alumina (Al2O3) and thereafter is essentially corrosion-resistant. Storing it outside is just fine.
Putin’s ‘hidden hand’ lies behind Iran’s drone tactics, UK defence secretary says
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/12/iran-using-russian-drone-tactics-uk-defence-secretary-john-healey
That bad old Putin again. The US/Isr. (with direct or indirect UK support) mass murder little kids, attack hospitals, creates chemical warfare by attacking oil refinery near populated areas, engages in “double tap” attacks, sinks boats and ships, then murders the survivors instead of picking them out of the water, supports and finances Genocide…
But that Slavic uentermensch in Russia is the baddie. Yah sure, you betcha
As Ray McGovern said, these guys give hypocrisy a bad name.
If Putin really was “behind” all of the things that the UK claims, he’d have to exist in the doorway to the next universe.
US CENTCOM has reported a fire on the Gerald Ford. Per the reporting, a fire occurred in the laundry room, two sailors were injured but no damage to propulsion.
I’d heard earlier reports but this is an official navy statement.
The statement:
https://nitter.net/US5thFleet/status/2032102452145664083
On March 12, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) experienced a fire that originated in the ship’s main laundry spaces. The cause of the fire was not combat-related and is contained.
There is no damage to the ship’s propulsion plant, and the aircraft carrier remains fully operational.
Two Sailors are currently receiving medical treatment for non-life-threatening injuries and are in stable condition. Additional information will be provided when available.
The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is currently operating in the Red Sea in support of Operation Epic Fury.
—–
Resistance lint?
The Boxer rebellion!
Israeli military drops charges against soldiers accused of sexually assaulting Palestinian detainee
https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-war-palestinians-prison-abuse-b11e5f0639b7fe51c5ea101f4b320f56?taid=69b2d087bee12000015e1c1c
Canada promises $37M in humanitarian aid for civilians in Lebanon
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/canada-promises-37m-in-humanitarian-aid-for-civilians-in-lebanon/article_c72a9afb-503a-5d24-8b5b-3a349a860652.html
Iran War: U.S. Navy will escort vessels through Strait of Hormuz as soon as ‘militarily possible,’ Bessent tells Sky News (CNBC)
Let me know how that turns out.
(bold mine)
Sure it was. Sure.
I saw this also from reader Ann.
The Navy does not work for Bessent.
This is late on a Friday, to lower the oil price going into the weekend.
Key part of his quote:
as soon as “militarily possible,”
Which matches the Macron and then G7 formulation. Seems to support Yves saying Navy won’t do it.
IMO there is no effing way it will be militarily possible soon, and probably at all.
Reposting Iran’s snazzy underground speedboat base propaganda video as it seems relevant (among other tools on Iranian toolbox)
IRGC Navy Unveils Underground “Vessel City” Made of Adjacent Tunnels Where Missile Boats Are Stored
If the Charles de Gaulle even passes through the Suez Canal, I’ll eat my beret. Not gonna happen. They won’t risk it after all she’s been through.
Netanyahu finally gave his first address of the war… By zoom (lol)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-israel-crushing-iran-and-hezbollah-in-first-press-conference-since-war-began/
So no exposure to press questions, I trust.
Based on what I am reading he did take questions but I am still looking for a video and transcript, will share if I find. Lots of preparing the ground for failure in operational goals sounds like
Transcript (Hebrew, but browser translation works well)
Al Jazeera has a dubbed to English version of the video but it’s 6 mins shorter so misses part of it. (Starts in middle of a sentence) https://youtu.be/-j26GlYG2is
I am taking immense psychic damage for the commentariat by watching the video with captions translated to English. I’m about three quarters of the way through but a few things stand out:
– a lot of references to acting on their own/making their own way to become a regional power; I think this “regional power without always having the backing of the US” position is going to be more prominent going forward
– a lot of emphasis on how Iran has been changed permanently
– he is extremely skilled at answering only a little bit of the question and then twisting the rest of the response back to his primary points
I think this is the first time I’ve watched him do a lot of speaking in Hebrew and I have to admit he has a very specific and engaging style that, if one were unpracticed in reading intent vs projection, would come across as confident leadership. However I am practiced and to me he looks very worried and stressed (even with he Zoom appearance filter on).
okay having watched the entire speech now I think the most interesting part is the last reporter’s questions and not so much what Netanyahu says but how he reacts. This won’t come across in the transcript, it’s worth watching. It starts here, you can switch the captions to auto translate to English.
The first question is about a petition underway to have Ben Gvir removed. Here you see Netanyahu briefly drop the polished mask and then rein it back in; between the bullshit he says that he doesn’t think now is the time for this (because Israel is facing an existential crisis).
The second question is about the Witkoff visit and what he thinks about the possibility that Witkoff is coming to set a deadline or end date for the war. Here Netanyahu does something interesting, you briefly see body language that indicates he is genuinely nervous and/or worried. And he says something like “I hope I will always be happy to see Witkoff” but then stresses that the US does not issue dictates, the relationship is more of a partnership.
I get the impression the reporters are used to dealing with the slippery, bullshit responses and initially I was surprised by how many of the questions dealt with Trump’s comments on the pardon (one funny point was when a reporter asked if Netanyahu had told Trump that Herzog was a disgrace, putting the words in his mouth). But by the last question it made sense; I think everyone there is just as much aware of the role the trial is playing in the war and the news of the last day about a pardon not being recommended plus his reaction to the question about Ben Gvir makes me wonder if he is really nearing the last of his nine lives (so to speak) and if Witkoff does indeed tell him to end the war what he will do next to stay out of jail. Stop saying nukes, I think another Lebanon war is more likely!
Thank you, RJ, for this, and sparing some of us the revulsion of watching the man talk for more than a minute.
OT, but since Ben Gvir came up and in the spirit of comic relief, some Russians on Telegram were asking whether he was behind the wheel of the KC-135 that got shot down.
Many thanks raspberry.
Thanks for taking the time to write the address up. There are certain faces that I really dislike seeing, and BB’s in one of them.
Likewise, this overcame my avoidance reaction and now I know why I dislike it.
First, tmi/bona fides: in 7th grade, my father had me read Ekman’s 1971 paper soon after it came out, before his popular works. I continued that inquiry, and studied a semester with Adam Kendon on the microanalysis of gesture. Also, I first got paid for acting when I was 13, graduated from the Goodman School of Drama/DePaul, was a professional for years and kept getting checks until Covid undercut being indoors and maskless.
Thus: like many public speakers, he masks both facially and gesturally. That’s not bad in itself, MLK did the same thing. His particular trait is lateral mouth tension while keeping the upper lip relaxed. When he smiles with this conformation, it takes on a mocking leer quality, very much the What Me Worry? look. It prevents a flaring of the naso-labial folds, dampening out specifically the expression of anger/disgust/hate to the audience.
What raspberry jam noticed is a loss of tonus in the masking structure. Note his self-touch (not a gesture) at 34:17. This could be considered self-soothing, but I’ll suggest he uses it, conscious or not, to re-fire the musculature and regain his mask, which is back up within five seconds.
Thank you for this comment!
Thanks for the report!
Thanks RJ, I continue to appreciate your perceptive reports.
Cleanse your psyche thoroughly! Twice!!!
Egads, that person looks to be in very poor health. Between my volunteer shifts at the hospital/nursing home this past month I have become reacquainted with that, that … look. I can almost smell the body decay, just by looking/seeing. Egads! Retired RN, current status: Death Doula. Thanks, all, the NC community is my go to, daily…
His facial asymmetry suggests to me an advanced brain tumor, probably a benign carcinoma, pressing heavily against his left facial nerve. He didn’t have this asymmetry when he was young and it’s not due to normal aging.
The word I meant to use was neurinoma. A carcinoma is not benign.
US Navy to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, treasury secretary tells Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/us-navy-to-escort-oil-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-treasury-secretary-tells-sky-news-13518742
OMG they have lost their minds. Shooting gallery time.
How much more humiliation is the US about to visit on itself? And which tankers will be so dumb as to go along?
Iran already issued a wonderfully colorful threat, a more artful version of, “You may come in horizontally (on the sea surface), but you will leave vertically (as in be sunk)”.
But this is Bessent, not anyone in the armed services, so this may just be to try to cool the oil markets late on a Friday.
It’s still Thursday, March 12 here in the US.
You prob have seen it, but :
https://x.com/PressTV/status/2031768360866677240
He said “when militarily possible.” Nothing new. Saw that portion of his interview on CNBC.
For full context, Bessent said:
Which parses out a bit more nuanced than the headline. “As soon as militarily possible” could be three weeks, three months, or … never.
Nonetheless, I tend to agree with the theory that Bessent has been huffing 10-year-old lacquer behind a Wendy’s dumpster.
I believe it will be possile for the US Navy to escort ships through the strait of Hormuz…
no later than the 32nd of February.
US to Ease Shipping Rule in Bid to Tame Spiraling Fuel Prices
“The Trump administration plans to waive a century-old maritime law that requires American ships be used to transport goods between US ports as it seeks to blunt surging oil and gasoline prices, according to people familiar with the matter.
The 30-day exemption, which is still being developed, is set to apply broadly to vessels moving oil, gasoline, diesel, liquefied natural gas and fertilizer among US ports”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/trump-administration-set-to-suspend-jones-act-to-tame-oil-prices
It looks like this may be yet another distraction.
U.S. Shipping Interests Say Jones Act Waiver Would Do Little to Lower Gasoline Prices
“The business of America is
businessmiddlemen.”Netanyahu speech here transcript in Hebrew though no auto translate in YouTube I am mobile can’t translate myself
https://www.youtube.com/live/fMwSH3n3N3A?si=8m1SVJOnA5n0Dnen
Anyone seen recent proof of life for Bibi? Much speculation about his death. Iran posted an AI video showing a small boat hitting his private plane with a missile and its crash in the water. Could be a warning or wishful but could also be a subtle statement.
Well… is there reason to doubt the press conference today… ?
BTW, I notice only 27k views on YT (official PM of Israel channel), and 90% of the comments are positive. Many also from India and elsewhere.
Even international, kind of a tiny fan base, no?
It was via Zoom, right?
Implying… an “AI” Bibi gave a presser scripted by others because the real Bibi got whacked by a missile… ?
Ret. Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Netanyahu Could Turn to Nuclear Bombs If Iran War Escalates
https://www.democracynow.org/2026/3/10/lawrence_wilkerson
Based on this Telegraph article, it sounds like US victory is just around the corner:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/08/american-bunker-boom-fuelled-by-iran-war/
What U.S. Cabinet Secretary doesn’t buy a nuclear bunker when their side is winning?
“U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced the loss of a KC-135 “Stratotanker” over Iraq after an incident with another aircraft that landed safely. Rescue efforts are ongoing. CENTCOM states this was not due to friendly or hostile fire.”
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2032211409862377953
However, there are other reports that a second KC-135 was hit but landed in Israel.
Two tankers down is going to hurt operations a lot, even if the second one is soon repaired. The Iranians should hit that second one while it is sitting empty on the runway to remove it for good.
Yes, I read there are only between 6 and 13 KC-135s in the Middle East right now, though of course there are more elsewhere.
I’m a little surprised that the second plane that got hit apparently landed at Ben Gurion. The Iranians have been showing some restraint to not yet crater all the runways there.
P.S. Russian Telegram reported:
Mujahideen now claims they downed the plane:
https://t.me/SabrenNewss/189247
Hudson and Wolff talk about the war.
https://michael-hudson.com/2026/03/war-oil-and-empire/
Vighi’s latest: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/bombs-for-bonds-iran-and-the-geopolitics-of-refinancing/
“Today’s phased world war should be framed as a single mechanism: the perpetual production of emergency, the only weather in which the monetary machine operates without its wires showing. Before Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran’s proxy networks, there was the “war on Covid” – a “pandemic” that legitimised the most extraordinary monetary deluge in history, normalizing the idea that trillions could materialize overnight to keep the leveraged edifice from collapsing. Each emergency trains the public to accept the next. Each crisis expands what monetary policy can do without democratic oversight.”
>>>How much more humiliation is the US about to visit on itself
Reportedly (per CBS News) an incident involving 2 air-to-air refueling tankers over western Iraq. 1 down, 1 returned to Jordan.
Initially the reporter tweeted that 1 had been “hit” (sic). She retracted that tweet and now just mentioned an incident in the vaguest terms—but it definitely was not enemy fire (per her 2nd tweet, per CENTCOM). (comment: we are all Alex Jones now)
https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/2032215155971432916
https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/2032215430194930122
A KC-135 crashed in Iraq, and another landed (unplanned it seems) in Israel. These are the aerial refueling planes.
https://xcancel.com/TheCradleMedia/status/2032219191160238438#m
CENTCOM: Just posted that they are aware of the loss of a KC-135 fueling aircraft in Iran. Per CENTCOM, loss was not due to enemy fire.
Loss of U.S. KC-135 Over Iraq
USCENTCOM
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command is aware of the loss of a U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft. The incident occurred in friendly airspace during Operation Epic Fury, and rescue efforts are ongoing. Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the aircraft went down in western Iraq, and the second landed safely.
This was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.
More information will be made available as the situation develops. We ask for continued patience to gather additional details and provide clarity for the families of service members.
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4432850/loss-of-us-kc-135-over-iraq/
The Guardian is reporting the same, in the same vague terms.
Embarrassing regardless of the reason. I don’t expect to hear the truth about the situation regardless of what we see in the media.
Two air refuelling tankers hit, one crashed, one made it back to Ben Gurion damaged. CENTCOM saying they collided. Costs are rising. Will be fun if the S400 is coming out to play
US lost an air-to-air refueling tanker today. Very military preparedness. Much wow.
https://apnews.com/article/us-military-aircraft-down-loss-iraq-6d182239315cf9d2a20c669c5ac8418d
Pop up art:
Statue of Trump, Epstein re-enacting titanic pose appears on the D.C. mall:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/us/politics/trump-epstein-statue-titanic-national-mall.html
This is art in it’s true sense!
Ryan Grim /twitter
NEWS: The man who rammed his explosives-laden truck into a Michigan synagogue today was named Ayman Ghazaleh, according to a source familiar with the situation. Ghazaleh posted photos overnight of his family members, including young children, who were killed in a recent Israeli attack on the town of Mashghara, Lebanon. This is a developing story.
Slow down, you move too fast
Your family got smoked in a morning blast
Just gunning down those you can reach
Looking for revenge and feelin’ groovy
Ba da da da da da da, feelin’ groovy
Hello, lamppost, what’cha knowin’?
I’ve come to watch your strange fruit growin’
Ain’t’cha got no rhymes for me?
Doot-in doo-doo, Mussolini
Ba da da da da da da, Mussolini
You got one deed to do
And promises to keep
You’re angry and gunned-up and ready to keep
A promise you made to your dead family
Life, you loved it
All is groovy
Simon & Garfunkel
The 59th Street Bridge Song (Feelin’ Groovy)
Carney announces $35B for defence, infrastructure in Canada’s North
Funding includes building military hubs and roads, improving northern airports
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-defence-north-announcement-9.7126640
Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply chain on a two-week clock — SK hynix forced to diversify after 30% of global supply removed from the market
No restart in sight.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/qatar-helium-shutdown-puts-chip-supply-chain-on-a-two-week-clock
I think it would be amusing if the IRGC demanded that Bibi be turned over to the International Court of Justice in addition to the demands they have already made.
Operation “Epstein Fury” is gaining traction as a name for this War although I am not sure that War is the right term with no Declaration of War and no AUMF or consultation with Congress.
Murder in the first degree with special circumstances seems inadequate, if accurate.
I can see this coming about. One condition for rejoining the world economy, “Turn in your war criminals.”
I think the ICJ is too compromised for that to happen. There will need to be a redo of the Nuremberg trials, but in a newly liberated Palestine for all the Israeli war criminals. The Jaffa trials.
To all on NC: I don’t mean to post duplicate stories. I find one, I post it, but before it gets out of moderation, two more versions of the story are posted, resulting in wasted space. Sorry. I’ll try to be quicker.
There is a report that pro-Tehran militias attacked a Kurdish base in Iraq injuring six French troops and possibly destroying a helicopter.
ParsToday reporting that too (w/video clip): https://t.me/parstodayrussian/197133
Macron is gonna need a re-up for his meth stash.
I guess it’s the same anti-Riyadh militias that are claiming to have shot down an US air tanker.
Weakened by War, Iran Hits Back by Strangling a Vital Waterway
The NY Times is smoking what Trump is smoking .
The cope is strong.
Posted this the other day, but it’s becoming more true lol:
https://imgur.com/gallery/super-copium-6a7nnVp
Trump’s Latest Truth Social:
We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise, yet, if you read the Failing New York Times, you would incorrectly think that we are not winning. Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth. We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time – Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today. They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
BP: He’s getting worse. Beyond the self-deluded hogwash, a bloodlust seems to be growing. It’s noticeabley more extreme.
The bolded section is really disturbing in anyone, much less a man with a nuclear briefcase.