[Again we are launching our Iran war update before complete so as to provide the freshest information. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your webpage then for a final version]
In some recent talks on the Iran War, Larry Wilkerson has stressed the importance of Clausewitz, specifically in understanding the nature of the conflict. Even though many Iran-sympathetic commentators, such as Alastair Crooke, were early to stress that Iran wants the US military presence swept form the region, even that formulation does not seem to be an adequate characterization of Iran’s aims. If we take a fresh presentation on Glenn Diesen;s channel by Professor Sayed Mohammed Marandi on Iran’s objectives and requirement as accurate (recall that Marandi is a commentator, not an official spokesperson), they amount to decolonization of the Gulf region. Iran is not merely seeking an end to the US military presence. It is also seeking an end to the Gulf states economic support of what Russia has called the Collective West, via its demand for reparations.
Perhaps scholars of wars can correct me, but I cannot think of a case where reparations were paid other than when an enemy was completely subjugated, either via conquest or surrender. That is not a conceivable outcome with respect to the United States. But given Iran having demonstrated that it controls any hope of economic survival of the oil and gas income dependent Gulf monarchies via its control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to destroy energy and port infrastructure, it has the realistic prospect of breaking them.
Syrian-Palestinian journalist Laith Marouf has argued that wars of decolonization typically take six years.1 Even if you mark the start of this war as the Hamas raid of October 7, 2023, which Israel blamed on Iran when Iran in fact was very upset with Hamas throwing a spanner in its long-term efforts in the region, it would seem that there is an impossibly long time before resolution. With the prospect of wide-ranging, multi-fronted, lasting and severe damage to the global economy, it would seem that there would be at least an interim major reset well before then. But given that Iran has requirements that the US, Israel, and the West will now find impossible to swallow, how much damage will countries and citizens around the world have to endure before painful concessions are made to Iran?
Below is the full talk with Marandi:
Key sections:
Ceasefire is not an option. This war will continue until Iran’s demands are met. Iran will no longer accept a situation in the region where the United States can threaten it again. That’s that’s over. Iran will no longer allow regimes in the Persian Gulf to be bases to act as bases for the United States to threaten Iran. And Iran will demand and it will get full compensation for the slaughter and the destruction.
And the longer that this will last, the more compensation Iran will take from the regimes in the Persian Gulf or whoever else. What Iran will receive is compensation….
Iran is going to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. He [Trump] can try his best to talk the markets down. It will work for a couple of days, but the fact is that there’s going to be a shortage of energy every day. 20 million barrels of oil at the and it could increase if Iran punishes the the regime in Baku, the Republic of Azerbaijan or if the Yemenis strike Saudi the Saudi oil pipeline that goes through the Red Sea and so on. It would get worse.
But or now for now 20 million barrels of oil a day are disappearing from the marketplace and every day an extra 20 million is added to it [as in the total loss is compounding]. So he can talk down the market for a couple of days and then and Western media and Western governments can help him do that and then they can release their reserves. But their reserves as far as I know that the G7 have can only last two months. I mean they can only compensate for two months. They have two months’ worth of reserves and I don’t think that Iran plans to open the Straight of Hormuz anytime soon. So, we’re heading for a global economic crisis.
Stop for a second to wrap your mind around this demand. Reparations is a Carthago delenda est, salt the earth level ask.2 They make the depiction of Putin’s comparatively mild requirements for ending the Ukraine as “maximmalist” in context.
Later from Marandi:
Just a couple of hours ago, they carried out air air strikes in tan and bombed highways and bombed civilian targets, slaughtering more people just like they did last night. Last night they carried out multiple massacres in terror. So what more can they do? If they want to destroy Iran’s key infrastructure, that’s a possibility. But then Iran will destroy all key infrastructure in this region. Everything. All the oil and gas installations in the Persian Gulf region and in the caucuses will be gone, finished. They won’t be damaged. They’ll be destroyed. And that will mean that the key infrastructure of the United States will collapse. The world will collapse because the we will enter a severe global economic depression.
• The IEA said to propose releasing record 300-400 million barrels from reserves. Still, brent pushes higher to over $90
• G-7 ministers to meet later to discuss stockpile release
• Market volatility follows a day of mixed messages from US officials
• Military strikes continue across the Middle East
• Three ships were hit in Middle East; Drones fell near Dubai airport
<>With G-7 leaders set to discuss a stockpile release to deal with the impact of the war in Iran, here is a chart showing how much oil reserves each nation of the group holds.
Eurointelligence also made the point that when talking about the strategic reserves of the G7, there are differences between the various the various G7 states. In some cases, such as France, the entire strategic reserve is held nationally by the French government. In other countries, and Eurointelligence didn’t name them, but in other countries, it is a mix with some of the reserves held by the government, but other reserves held by industry and by private companies and they might be less willing to release any part of their reserves. And anyway, the Euro Intelligence article made the further point that there are anyway legal limits to how much oil can be released from the strategic reserves in all of the G7 countries. There is apparently a legal obligation to retain at least 90 days of oil.
90 days of usage of oil in the reserves to cover major emergencies such as a war, a natural disaster, things of that kind.
And that the fact that the price of oil has reached a certain level is not in accordance with these laws the enough in itself or sufficient cause in itself to deplete these reserves beyond a certain level.
Given what we have seen with bureaucratic rule-bending and breaking during the financial crisis and in Europe over the Ukraine war, these strictures are sure to be ignored as the crisis deepens. But to Mercouris’ point, we might not be there yet.
Larry Johnson provided an in-depth treatment of the loss of oil supply, not just in terms of energy needs but also the impact on fertilizer supplies. He also has an important discussion of which countries are most exposed to these three vulnerabilities. Since there has been a fair bit of coverage on the risk of petroleum and gas shortfalls in various parts of the world, we’ll cite his sections on less-well-covered topic, fertilizer and combined risks from these three key needs. From his Choke Point: The Global Economic Consequences of The Persian Gulf Shutdown:
Let’s look at the three commodity categories most exposed …crude oil and refined petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and urea, the nitrogen fertiliser upon which modern agriculture depends…
Of the three commodity shocks, the disruption of urea exports from the Persian Gulf may be the least immediately visible — but could prove the most enduring in its consequences……artificial fertiliser now sustains approximately half of the world’s population…
Crop yield decline. Without adequate nitrogen fertiliser, yields of staple crops — wheat, rice, maize, soy — would fall dramatically within one to two growing seasons. The effect would not be uniform: wealthy agricultural nations with domestic fertiliser capacity or large stockpiles (the United States, Canada, parts of Europe) would be more insulated. The developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, would face acute shortages.
Food price inflation. Global food prices, already elevated by conflict-related supply disruptions in recent years, would surge further. The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s food price index would likely break historical records…
Geopolitical instability. Historical evidence linking sharp food price spikes to political instability is robust. The Arab Spring of 2011 coincided with a period of record food prices. A global urea shortage and its downstream consequences for food security would heighten the risk of civil unrest, state fragility, and humanitarian crisis across numerous countries.
India
India is the world’s largest urea importer by volume, consuming enormous quantities to support its vast agricultural sector. Despite significant domestic urea production, India’s demand consistently outpaces supply,..
Brazil
Brazil is among the world’s top urea importers, having dramatically expanded its agricultural output — it is now the world’s largest soy and beef exporter, and a major corn and sugar producer. Brazil produces almost no urea domestically at scale and imports a very large share from Gulf producers…
Australia
Australia is one of the world’s most import-dependent nations for urea, sourcing the overwhelming majority from Gulf producers..
Sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Mozambique, Nigeria)
Sub-Saharan African nations with significant smallholder agricultural sectors are acutely exposed to urea supply disruption. Most have no domestic production and rely heavily on Gulf imports, often through the Indian Ocean trade routes. Fertiliser usage rates in Africa are already among the world’s lowest — meaning yields are already suboptimal — but further supply cuts and price increases would price smallholder farmers out of the market entirely…
Southeast Asia — Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines
Southeast Asian rice-producing nations — Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines — rely heavily on imported urea to sustain their paddy yields. These countries are among the world’s largest rice exporters and form a critical buffer for global food markets…
Urea Exposure: Country Risk Summary
The Compounding Effect
Several countries face acute exposure across all three commodity categories simultaneously. These nations represent the most extreme cases of vulnerability.
Japan: The Triple Threat
Japan is uniquely exposed on all three fronts: it is the world’s most Gulf-dependent major oil importer, one of the world’s largest LNG importers with no pipeline alternative, and a significant importer of Gulf urea for its rice and vegetable agriculture. A full Persian Gulf shutdown would represent an existential economic crisis for Japan, requiring emergency rationing, international assistance, and an accelerated nuclear restart programme…
India: Scale Makes It Uniquely Dangerous
India faces critical exposure on oil and urea, and significant exposure on LNG. What makes India’s situation particularly alarming is scale: with 1.4 billion people, a fuel subsidy system that creates enormous fiscal pressure when prices rise, minimal strategic reserves, and a large poor population with little financial resilience, the social consequences of a simultaneous oil and fertiliser shock would be catastrophic…
Pakistan: The Fragile State Scenario
Pakistan faces severe exposure on oil and LNG, and significant exposure on urea. Critically, Pakistan begins any crisis from a position of chronic fiscal and foreign exchange weakness…
South Korea and Taiwan: Industrial Economies at Risk
Both nations face extreme oil and LNG exposure, and their economies are globally systemically important in ways that extend their vulnerability internationally. South Korea’s steel, chemicals, and shipbuilding, and Taiwan’s semiconductor fabs, supply global industries….
Johnson’s analysis has the US as much less vulnerable than the rest of the world. However, he focused on the biggest overall risks. We live in a world of tightly integrated supply chains. As we pointed out in a post last week, petroleum provides critical inputs for other major industries. Hoisted from an important article by Craig Tindale:
Here are 10 likely and immediate crises
Polyester -> apparel…
Natural gas -> fertilizer -> food…
Sour crude / sulfur -> sulfuric acid -> copper…
Propylene -> polypropylene -> medical and packaging…
Salt + power -> chlorine / caustic soda -> water treatment…
Iron ore + metallurgical coal -> steel -> construction and machinery…
Bauxite + alumina + cheap power -> aluminum -> transport and packaging..
Soda ash + natural gas -> glass -> buildings, autos, solar….
High-purity gases and chemicals -> semiconductors -> electronics and autos
Note that Tindale cited semiconductor supply chains, refining and industrial chemicals and mining and metals extraction as early to suffer body blows.
On a much cheerier note, Alon Mizrahi, who prides himself as an expert reader of the psychopathy in Israel, argues that Israel will not launch a nuclear strike on Iran. His talks tend to be very discursive but he does provide a transcript.
Day 12: the biggest military triumph in modern times by Alon Mizrahi
10 days ago, I already knew the US and Israel have lost the war. Now a new picture emerges, in which Iran not only achieve a historic victory, but also moves to change global power structures
The core observations from his new talk are that US and Israel interest in the war are more visibly diverging, and that Israel still is maniacally committed because it wildly overestimates US power and willingness and ability to fund reconstruction. But he argues despite the fervor, Isrealis are not suicidal and recognize that Iran would retain enough conventional strike power even after an Israel nuclear attack to completely destroy Israel infrastructure. Key parts:
Already we are seeing, and this goes back to my separation angle, already we are seeing that the U.S. and Israel are not fully aligned…. The American angle on this is to remove this Ayatollah regime, as they call it, from power and let the Iranians rebuild their country. But this is not the Israeli agenda. Israel doesn’t care about who controls Iran. Israel wants to destroy Iran for sadistic pleasure, to satisfy its supremacy complex, and so on, and so on, and so on. But this is not the American calculation….
Israel doesn’t care. Israel doesn’t care about tomorrow. And Israel has this feeling that whatever happens, the U.S. will always protect it. That whatever the U.S. has, it’s going to give it to Israel first. …Israel has this strange confidence that things are going to be this way forever. And they have no consideration for destroying the global economy. They think that even if the global economy is destroyed, the U.S. is going to bail them out and save them. The U.S. and other international mechanisms that they have a lot of influence on, they are going to save Israel and bail out Israel. So they are not bothered by this kind of an apocalypse or an Armageddon scenario. Whereas the U.S., even in its current state, is not interested in this kind of an outcome…
Iran is going to work methodically to break Israel. This is not a symbolic inflicting of pain. This is something that goes way beyond this. Way beyond this. But this is it for now….
And if Israel, so I’ve covered the U.S. part of it, but if Israel decides to use atomic weapons, it’s going to create the same global impact as the U.S. doing the same thing. But the difference would be that Israel, this small, extremely sensitive and globally hated country, has now made it legitimate for any country that so desires to nuke Israel…
So for the US, using atomic weapons creates a risk scenario that is too much to bear and doesn’t make sense relative to the danger that Iran poses or the reward of getting rid of Iran. But for Israel, which doesn’t have this kind of considerations at all, using atomic weapons invites the kind of reaction that is most, by all likelihood, is going to finish Israel. Because maybe Iran will develop it itself. Maybe they will get one from Pakistan or from Russia. Or maybe North Korea is going to get crazy and decide that they have to get rid of Israel, because Israel is using atomic weapons. And this is not the 1940s.
There are several countries with atomic weapons, and each one of them is like 50 to 100 times bigger than Israel, with a much bigger strategic depth. And their ability to cope with a scenario like this, which is crazy and apocalyptic, And Armageddon Lake is much better. Israel is toast in an instant.
So for Israel, this is too much of an existential risk…Using nukes against Iran doesn’t guarantee the end of Iran or the end of the war. because much of Iran’s strategic capability is nuclear resistant. It won’t be destroyed because someone dropped adropped a nuclear bomb on Tehran or Isfahan or five cities and killed five million Iranians. It may only guarantee that Iran will itself apply the same logic and launch everything that it has, thousands of ballistic missiles, and hundreds of thousands of drones potentially, and cruise missiles, and everything that it has, not only at Israel, but its entire neighboring area, and cause another layer of destruction, that no one would be able to, maybe not survive, but survive normally. Because firing a thousand ballistic missiles at Israel guarantees the country is finished. Finished. Because this kind of barrage, if it’s directed at population centers, At Tel Aviv, five, three or four Israeli big cities. This ends Israel. This ends Israel..
But Iran doesn’t want to be seen as the one actively ending Israel, because in this scenario, it might invite Israel to use the atomic option. So short of bringing Israel to this point, Iran is going to do everything to bring down Israel and Zionism.
Other good videos in the last 24 hours. These Hindustan Times updates overlap only a bit:
And:
Given the US’ fondness for bombing fishing boat and claiming they were operated by drug-carrying nacro-terrorists, how sure can be be over what exactly the US shot, even assuming these images are current and from the Persian Gulf?
The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now…
The Navy’s assessments spell continued disruption to Middle East oil exports and reflect a divergence from President Donald Trump’s statements that the U.S. is prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed to restart regular shipments along the key waterway…
A senior official with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said the strait is closed and Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported last week. Several ships have already been hit.
The U.S. Navy has held regular briefings with shipping and oil industry counterparts and has said during those briefings it is unable to provide escorts for the time being, three shipping industry sources familiar with the matter said.
The sources, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the shipping industry has been making requests almost daily during the calls for naval escorts through the strait.
The Pentagon churned through about $5.6 billion worth of munitions during the first two days of the U.S. war with Iran, a congressional source familiar with the matter told The Hill Monday night.
The Defense Department delivered the estimate to Congress on Monday, the source said.
The big picture: The geopolitical strains unleashed by the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran 11 days ago point to an ongoing reset … with downstream effects for global inflation, interest rates and more.
Markets are pricing in a relatively temporary surge in energy prices, but they are just the latest in a series of supply shocks …
It creates a particular challenge for the Federal Reserve and other central banks. They must decide whether to try to fight supply-shock-driven inflation — or look through it….
Reality check: The moves in yields and inflation expectations have hardly been the stuff of nightmares.
Longer-term Treasury yields were higher just a few weeks ago and through most of 2025.
Treasury markets priced in 2.6% annual inflation over the next five years at Monday’s close, up from 2.4% before the attacks but far below the levels seen at the height of the Ukraine invasion four years ago (3.6%).
Futures markets are now pricing in better-than-even odds (57%) that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its June meeting. A month ago, the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a rate cut by June at about 75%….
Traditional monetary policy theory holds that energy price shocks are one-time events that policymakers should look past.
But coming after the pandemic supply shocks, the Ukraine war and the U.S.-launched trade war, the world economy is looking more like one in which rolling price shocks are the norm, not the exception…
At the very least, if China were really the motive, one would have expected the Trump administration to offer this theory — “this is the chance to counter America’s greatest geopolitical rival” — as a major justification to the American people. One would think they would be particularly motivated to do so, given the consensus of polling data showing that public support for this war is far weaker than for any American war in decades.
But Trump officials never mentioned China as a core motive. In fact, even now, the administration and its backers have hardly mentioned China. This is a theory invented out of whole cloth by Iran-war supporters and/or Trump supporters, grasping for some cogent reason why this new war is in Americans’ interests.
Late last week, Senator Lindsey Graham claimed that this conflict is “a religious war” waged by “radical Islamic terrorists.” On March 2, House Speaker Mike Johnson explained to a group of reporters that the United States “determined, because of the exquisite intelligence that [it] had, that if Israel fired on Iran,” then “[Iran] would have immediately retaliated against U.S. personnel and assets.” Therefore, the House Speaker insisted, because the U.S. would be attacked either way, it had to hit Iran withIsrael. President Trump announced on Friday that the U.S. intends to select “GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s)” for the Iranian people, in order to make their country “economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”
Reader bob pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz monitoring sites are giving stuff-up readings, perhaps due to GPS jamming or spoofing:
Does anyone know why they are reporting as way over speed? What would cause that? What sort of spoofing would lead to ships being reported at speeds of 100 knots?
The clusters of ships west of Dubai are the craziest. They’re doing 100 knots a few feet from each other. A few are slower at 50 knots.
.1 Yes, Marouf is controversial (see here, here, and here). But that does not invalidate his analysis of the history of decolonization.
2 Keep in mind how completely psychologically unprepared the West is for being met with a superior force that they have convinced themselves is weak and incompetent. Russia, aside from its stature as a peer competitor to the US during the Cold War, is a great power by virtue of its nuclear arsenal alone. Yet Putin’s comparatively mild requirements for ending the Ukraine war (which seem ambitious until you recognize that Russia will win and therefore can impose terms) are ritually depicted as “maximmalist” by Western officials and media. How long will they have to choke on their bigotry with respect to Iran’s military prowess and ability to bring the world economy to its knees before they recognize that they need to deal with a completely new reality?
Nuggets in passing. I plan to abstain from my news addiction for the rest of the day. Thanks for your continuing work Yves and peace and love to everyone.
I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can’t defend this war in public.
I obviously can’t disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are…
….5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN . I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open.
Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable….
The IRGC releases a list of offices and infrastructure run by top US companies with Israeli links whose technology has been used for military applications.
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency released a list of offices and infrastructure run by top US companies with Israeli links whose technology has been used for military applications, describing them as “Iran’s new targets”, said Al Jazeera’s Maziar Motamedi, reporting from Tehran.
“As the scope of the regional war expands to infrastructure war, the scope of Iran’s legitimate targets expands,” the agency said.
The companies include Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia and Oracle, and the listed offices and infrastructure for cloud-based services are located in multiple Israeli cities, as well as in some Gulf countries, said Motamedi.
—-
5. Less important but it caught my ear: Wilkerson on Nima saying both Lindsay Graham and Pete Hegseth have widely known drinking problems and saying Graham looked drunk on TV!
raspberry jam
Thanks BP! My us employer is on the list. No internal news yet about this. There are a number of infrastructure installation and offices in Haifa and Tel Aviv.
I left a comment in response to your question in yesterday’s post about how the Israeli colleagues have been doing. In short: situation has deteriorated significantly since Monday. Lots of calls yesterday from the shelters or leaving/missing calls.
Butch
BP thank you for all your contributions, hope to read you tomorrow.
nycTerrierist
Seconded! best wishes to all and appreciation for the insight
special thx to Yves! and NC posters
AG
same here, thanks
p.s. “5. Less important but it caught my ear: Wilkerson on Nima saying both Lindsay Graham and Pete Hegseth have widely known drinking problems and saying Graham looked drunk on TV!”
Wonder what Michael Tracey would have to say re: kompromats regarding those two. Since with Epstein he stressed he never met anyone in the political circus who they had no “dirt” on.
Trees&Trunks
Graham – I believe he has a constant premature ejaculation from decades pent-up Iran-war horniness. He has been dreaming of this war for so long that now he is releasing all sexual tensions. Can be confused with drunkeness.
nycTerrierist
agreed. Any way to audit how piggy Graham profiteers from war-mongering?
obv he’s not the only one, but he seems to get the most msm airtime
Tom Stone
The Trump Administration did have a plan, one OK’d by that stable Genius Donald trump, the most Popular king to rule America in at least 200 years!
Post all done. Please refresh your browser if you arrived before the time of this comment. I am returning to add some Links since they were light at launch due to my focus on getting this post in shape
Butch
Thank you. NC and it’s community, past and present is amazing.
Randall Flagg
Jeez, if there was ever a time to send a contribution to this site as thanks for this honest coverage of the war, it sure is now. Probably to harden your infrastructure from attacks, TPTB can’t have too much coherent and intelligent information getting out there.
Thanks for all your efforts.
The Rev Kev
‘Perhaps scholars of wars can correct me, but I cannot think of a case where reparations were paid other than when an enemy was completely subjugated, either via conquest or surrender.’
Of course it has not happened yet but the EU is working on the assumption that when the war in the Ukraine ends, that they will hit Russia up for hundreds of Euros in compensation for the Ukraine, that the Russian military budget be reduced, that the size of the Russian army be drastically reduced and that Putin and his top officials give themselves up for arrest so that they can be sent to the Hague for trial by judges that the UK has been training up. Does that count?
Rip Van Winkle
Putin would turn London into a Wisconsin Dells water park with a tsunami hypersonic.
fjallstrom
Before the nationalism of the 19th century, European wars often ended in a negotiated settlement. Forts, cities, counties, cash, claims could all be traded, and not just one way either.
Of course these were very much cabinet wars, and the cabinets were led by monarchs who were related to each other. The monarchs acting as negotiators could also secure some concessions for themselves.
But that was then, things has changed a bit both in warfare and presumed relationships between rulers and ruled. Can’t just hand over citizens the same way as subjects were handed over when the land changed ruler, and you certainly can’t exchange money for territory anymore. Citizens don’t like when you sell other citizens.
An early update, courtesy reader resilc, confirming the decolonization issue:
Iran on Wednesday said it will target economic and banking interests in the Middle East region linked to the US and Israel following an attack on an Iranian bank. The Iranian military attacked commercial ships across the Persian Gulf and Dubai’s key international airport as the conflict in the oil-rich region escalates amid global energy concerns. Follow our liveblog for the latest updates.
Reinforcing the take, from my comment to BP in yesterday’s post:
I was told on a call that a customer, a major bank, their HQ office was destroyed. This was before the notice today from Iran that going forward banks would be struck.
Apologies for not hoisting that. I didn’t fully catch up on yesterday’s comments before having to crank up on today’s piece.
raspberry jam
No need to apologize Yves you’re doing great!
Randy Nugent
I simply want to give you the high priase you deserve. I don’t know how you process all this information in your mind. I for one would be much more poorly informed if not for all your effort. And of course I don’t know where you get the energy to do this every day.
Thank you so much.
Randolph
HH
Trump will promise Iran whatever it wants to end the war, then attack again a year or two later at Israel’s behest. The only way Iran can be secure is to obtain nuclear weapons or a make a military alliance with a nuclear power.
YuShan
I agree. They need a MAD doctrine of sorts. I cannot see how they will sign up for yet another agreement that will be broken by the US a couple of years later. They need real “physical” guarantees.
However, since USrael started this war with the aim of denying Iran ANY security, it is difficult to see any clean way out of this.
jsn
Pulverize US bases, pulverize corporate entities and infrastructure related to US/IS MIC, keep the gulf closed until Arab Monarchies scream for relief and re-commit their Trump financial promises to Iran. Pound reparations out of the Gulf Princelings and force their realignment with missile coordinates.
This is the game plan, but others like Pakistan, also have agency, a very dynamic and dangerous situation.
And, incidentally, if Iran can hit US radars with the ease they’ve demonstrated, I’d say the arrays in Romania are toast of Putin’s domestic critics get their way.
jsn
There is another way, and the Iranians are doing it.
Wisker
I’m afraid this is wishful thinking and I’m inclined to agree with HH & YuShan.
Yes, Iran is very cleverly doing all it can with the resources it has. Their ‘strategery’ puts Russia to shame. But Iran hasn’t yet inflicted meaningful damage on the US. Satellite, air, and ship-based recon is untouched. US offensive capacity is undamaged beyond the depletion of some stocks… and frankly I don’t think that matters as it’s becoming clear the US is too weak to take on China anyway.
Nor has Israel been chastened enough to curb its expansionist policies. The only ‘Western’ actors in this war who are suffering are the uniquely vulnerable gulf states.
Economic damage inflicted by Iran? Sure, but it’s hardly directed enough or intense enough to bring down US–or even Israeli–imperial ambitions. As things stand today, Iran will be attacked again in a few months or years.
Iran has destroyed more than half of the THAAD radars that the US has globally. It has also taken out a device (I can’t recall the name) that conveys satellite info to sites in the region.
Iran has pulverized US bases across the region. See our post yesterday which includes a video from Richard Medhurst which shows successive photos of the same bases.
Iran has driven the US out of most if not all of its embassies in the region. It hit the embassy in Saudi Arabia.
Iran will drive the US substantially or entirely out of the Middle East militarily as a bare minimum outcome. This is a slower-moving Suez Crisis level end of dominance.
jsn
The argument here seems to be space based ISR has superseded terrestrial radar etc..
Totally over my pay grade, but as I understand it while we can target with space based ISR, we can’t defend with it as our missile defense systems come with their own integrated radars.
So, maybe the argument is we can’t defend ourselves but that can’t stop us from attacking, which argument seems to be as good as our stockpiles of munitions, which is to say not so good.
Wisker
HH & YuShan’s point was that Iran needs to be able to attrite or deter its enemies offensive capabilities as those enemies are determined to keep attacking–tomorrow, in six months, etc. This has not been done yet and may be beyond Iran’s reach.
Depleting defensive missiles, some related radar sites, and some abandoned bases does not change this calculus. (Not for the US anyway, we have yet to see if Israel will suffer enough damage for their attitude to change).
If you see attacks on Iran taper off due to some loss of ability, then start celebrating, but not before then.
HUH? You really do not get this at all. Even Foreign Affairs and Bloomberg are acknowledging that the US is running out of OFFENSIVE weapons, particularly Tomahawks. And the loss of the THAAD systems means a big reduction in accuracy of what they use.
I won’t let through any more comments that show you are so out of touch with what is happening that you are misinforming readers. I do not have time to waste debunking CLEARLY inaccurate takes when I have provided extensive, sourced information daily to the contrary. It is a requirement in our Policies that you read a post in full before commenting. It is evident you are not doing so.
This reminds me of the scene at the end of Dune, where the Guild navigators, who are so used to reading the near future due to their spice addiction, can’t see what is going on around them.
The US is unable to protect its bases and allies all over the Middle East. The US was ALREADY losing the war in Ukraine. It has now even more abandoned Ukraine by no longer selling weapons to the Europeans to hand over to Ukraine.
As I will discuss tomorrow, Iran, as Alon Mizrahi has explained, has gone relatively easy on Israel so far but is wrecking its economy by hitting it often enough that people are in and out of shelters all day schools are closed so people cannot work. It seems the hard damage is mainly in Tel Aviv. Even so, many vids show lots of Iranian missiles getting through, unintercepted.
scott s.
Not sure what you are basing your “destroyed more than half of the THAAD radars that the US has globally” on?
From what I see, damaged or destroyed are the Qatari APS-132 early warning system, one of two UAE TPY-2 radars, and a US Army TPY-2 radar in Jordan. Then a US Navy SATCOM ground terminal GSC-52 and some other one, not sure who owns.
Saudis were supposed to buy six TPY-2 radars, not sure the status but there are reports that one was damaged/destroyed.
This is what Larry Johnson and I believe also Richard Mechurst and Douglas Macgregor has said. As we see with the US shipping the supposedly South Korean THAAD to the Middle East. Ownership seems to be a mere formality.
hk
South Korea does not own the THAAD (that used to be) deployed there. The controversy might have been reduced if they did own it–one of the main problems was that SK had no control over how it would be used and when.
I understand that and was remiss in not stating the point about the Saudi THAAD more clearly. Its value depends heavily on being used in connection with US operations in the region, not just Saudi defenses. I would not be surprised if it is integrated into American satellite surveillance or other US ISR. I would also not be surprised to find American contractors playing a big role in its operation. If either of those assumptions are correct, it is hard to regard it as an unimpaired Saudi asset, even if they technically do own it. America has a lot of informational liens on it.
Procopius
If it’s true that Iran has pulverized U.S. bases in the region, how is it that U.S. and Israeli aircraft are still attacking Iran? I’m hoping that in a few days Iran will bring the hammer down on the bases in Israel itself and Jordan. Where else are U.S. and Israeli planes flying from? Al-Udeid?
STUTTGART, Germany — The United States was granted permission to use bases in NATO ally Romania for operations in Iran on Wednesday following a meeting of defense officials in Bucharest. Romanian President Nicusor Dan called a defense council meeting to discuss whether to allow U.S. aircraft to carry out such missions, multiple Romanian news agencies reported Wednesday. The request involves the positioning of fighter planes at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, the Romania Journal reported Tuesday.
Romania is 2500km+ away from Iran.
Curious
It seems a bit wild how sensitive oil markets are right now. I didn’t see in the story above how an errant tweet from the energy secretary caused a huge drop in oil prices:
reminds me of pre-Covid (Jan. Feb) or summer 2008. the news was in the public domain on day x, but it took day x + y for the lemming panic to metastasize
The Commentariat is Cassandra
restive
Cassandra told the truth and was not believed. That make our news outlets the opposite of Cassandras, they tell lies and get believed.
Unless you mean that sites like this one are Cassandras, which is sadly correct – telling the truth and being excluded from the conversation by the legacy outlets.
mrsyk
We are the commentariat that LF, a long time member, is referring to.
Henry Moon Pie
“We are the Commentariat.”
We need a T-shirt to that effect. ;) (Not an assignment)
mrsyk
Word.
chris
That would be an amazing t-shirt for a fundraiser raiser.
Other statements could be, “lost in moderation” :)
mrsyk
Lol, that goes on the back.
Antagonist
Paging NC reader NN Cassandra…
Retired Carpenter
restive,
You reminded me of a poem I read in high school more than half a century ago: Cassandra by Robinson Jeffers
The mad girl with the staring eyes and long white fingers
Hooked in the stones of the wall,
The storm-wrack hair and screeching mouth: does it matter, Cassandra,
Whether the people believe
Your bitter fountain? Truly men hate the truth, they’d liefer
Meet a tiger on the road.
Therefore the poets honey their truth with lying; but religion-
Vendors and political men
Pour from the barrel, new lies on the old, and are praised for kindly
Wisdom. Poor bitch be wise.
No: you’ll still mumble in a corner a crust of truth, to men
And gods disgusting-you and I, Cassandra
I hope current Cassandras are spared her fate.
The Rev Kev
There must have been a lot of pressure by people like Scott Bessent behind the scenes to make oil go down so far and so fast. Blind Freddy could tell you that the situation has not only not gotten better but has gotten much worse. Shouldn’t be surprised here as the price of gold is so heavily rigged so why not the price of oil. But of course Trump’s friends are buying the dip as they know that the price will rebound like a coiled spring. It is only a matter of time.
Curious
It’s smart of them to wipe out retail speculators early if they can pull it off, as that is a way to keep people from piling on. Also they don’t want to let it be know that Iran really can control the oil price that easily, so it will be interesting to see how long they can keep it bottled up.
jsn
Yes, I expect the spring is coiling. And it probably only took a couple of the right people getting a verbal backstop from someone Fed related to get the shipping insurance racket back sort of on side.
But the illusions are degrading in the West: I’m deeply embubbled in meetings this week with UK and US top tier Elite Servitors and numerous, isolated facts of the ongoing catastrophe have penetrated, but narrative structure is so overwhelming they have no place to put the factoids that make sense.
As a NC addict, I obviously inhabit a profoundly different reality and try to suggest connections between these factoids to break their Hasbara superposition and make them coherent reality in a different matrix, but the values inversion required for that transition is too great. Blind Freddy can tell because he can’t see the video delusions we’ve been steeping in since the 70s!
restive
Thanks. Didn’t realize I knew the lyrics well enough to sing along, but it seems I do. They should use Zappa as therapy to keep geriatric cognitive decline at bay.
obamafone
Upvote for ’embubbled’.
David
I suspect part of it had been panic buying for any oil. WTI for example shot up in price. But it is far too late to replace the much heavier crudes from thr Middle East. So buy a load of WTI to replace Middle east oil and youll fund yourself with a lot of oil that no one needs.
Oil is a market to an extent. But only an extent. Existing supply lines and different content and quality of oil mean you can’t just buy one to replace another. At least not fully.
.Tom
Given how openly hand-in-till team Trump has been, my first guess is market manipulation.
Curious
It will be interesting to see how long they can keep the bottle on Oil future prices as it looks like they are doing/trying now:
refiners in China, Japan should be scooping up every futures contract that their risk managers will allow, particularly the long-dated ones
Can’t cover-up physical scarcity
eugene linden
Exactly! Assume that is happening already, and not just China and Japan. We’ll know when the Nov. futures start rising.
TiPs
Can’t remember where I read this possibility, but….
If Treasury is contracting to sell to drive prices down, then they must buy to close positions before expiration and the triggering delivery date. They will lose money if they buy at a higher price than their original selling price. An “errant” tweet to temporarily drive the price down gives Treasury a quick opportunity to buy, closing its position and make a buck.
Result:
1. Contracting to sell initially pushes prices down; but negative news causes prices to start rising again
2. The tweet by energy sec causes big drop in prices, Treasury buys and closes positions, making profits
3. Ready to do it again…
In this corrupt administration, anything is possible.
Chess pieces moving into place to remove Netanyahu
motorslug
If that happens, any chance they hand him over to the Hague?
Henry Moon Pie
Or a crowd in Tehran? Or Gaza. Or Lebanon.
raspberry jam
Probably not, Israel extradition laws requires the guilty who are sentenced in Israel to serve their full term there prior to extradition I believe
Socal Rhino
Non-kinetic warfare:
Max Blumenthal yesterday: The ADL is very upset that “operation epstein’s fury” has gone viral. I’m attaching a screenshot of my tweet to prove I was the first to coin this and I’d like credit please.
Iran has dropped a third Lego movie short and a video cutting back and forth between a fighter jet and a little girl with a pink backpack off to school, and the aftermath. Russia could learn something from Iran’s propaganda.
Many on X have commented on a perceived huge drop in pro-Israel bots, and speculated about a connection to the reported destruction of an Israel propaganda site (unit 8200).
Please provide a link to that video if you see my reply. This sounds reminiscent of the famed Daisy commercial even though supposedly shown only once, that is credited with helping sink the Goldwater campaign.
regarding footnote number two, i think the usa wants iran to do this- bring the world economy to its knees.
why? because the usa thinks it can withstand this better than china. larry johnston points out that the usa is one of the best positioned nations for the upcoming chaos.
sillies, thinking that the usa is interested in prosperity. it isn’t. it cares about power, and all this idealistic talk about things like prosperity, clean energy, equality, etc is all just feel-good yada yada.
so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the usa goes on major worldwide break everything tour as a way to stave off the rise of eurasia/prevent iran from receiving reparations.
to oversimplify, it’s going something like this:
iran- “we’ll wreck the middle east and the global economy!”
usa- “bring it. this hurts china and friends more than us.”
meanwhile, the usa is probably telling friends/allies behind closed doors that iran is destroying outdated interceptor/radar tech and military bases no longer needed. the usa is shifting from ground-based systems that do not work to space-based systems that do not work. meanwhile, what’s left for the bases to protect when everything is on fire?
This is abject nonsense. The key actor here is not “the US”. It is Trump. What little Trump has of a reputation is going down in an historical conflagration. He will outdo Herbert Hoover, who actually was a hugely respected figure due to his humanitarian work after the Great War, which saved a huge number of lives. He literally fed millions. The Republicans will suffer a bloodbath in the midterms.
And did you read the post?!?! Semiconductors are close to the front of the line of oil scarcity casualties due to sulphur from oil being a critical input to sulphuric acid, which is used to etch chips. Remember what chip scarcity did to the auto biz in Covid? And that was due not to a loss of output, which is what would happen here, but auto companies whipsawing themselves by cutting orders, which were more than taken up by higher demand from Covid-stay-at-homes for consumer electronics, and then the auto companies could not readily get their order filled when demand for cars picked back up.
So multiply the impact, since we are not talking as supply chain diversion but actual and potentially durable loss of output, and consider the impact on AI valuations, which are what has been propping up the stock market, plus their nutty capex spend provided literally half of GDP growth in 2025.
This embarrassing CT. I hate to come down on a reader like this but I won’t tolerate comments that degrade the site like this. Read the post and think things through, FFS.
jsn
Arnaud had a tweet last night showing a huge jump in Chinese chip exports too.
That was before the war started, the first two months of 2026. Data came out after war started. I am not sure what point you are trying to make, as in I do not see the connection to this war.
Stev_Rev
Regarding sulfuric acid for semiconductors, that market is extremely tiny (very specialized high purity grades) compared to global production. IIRC, there are about 80 acid plants in the US (if you include refiners regeneration plants). I think there are two of those 80 that can make the purity required for semiconductors.
As a side note, if oil demand declines due to vehicle electrification, where will the sulfuric acid come from? About 2/3 of the sulfur needed for acid comes from petroleum, if memory serves.
Thanks. One site was banging on about the absolute importance of sulfuric acid and I saw it was critical for chip etching as opposed to tracking down its main uses. My bad. But I think it is used for all sorts of cleaning in electronic/electric components manufacture.
I must confess I should have gone back to Tindale for his detail on semiconductors in particular as opposed to grabbing on to something I saw in the last couple of days. The issue is much more LNG supplies than petroleum inputs. Should have checked.
This is what he wrote:
The semiconductor chain begins with ultra-pure gases, photoresists, specialty chemicals, and stable power. If those inputs are disrupted, chip yields collapse, lead times extend, and electronics, autos, telecom, and defense manufacturing start choking on shortages.
Order 5: Semiconductor Supply Chains (11–30 Days) The mechanism involves Taiwanese LNG starvation triggering mandatory grid rationing, exposing fabrication equipment to catastrophic voltage sags. The bottlenecks are defined by Taiwan’s statutory 11-day LNG reserve limit, strict SEMI F47 tool tolerance limits, and 28-week lead times for ABF substrates. Leading indicators include Taipower’s percent operating reserve (POR) collapsing, skyrocketing TSMC wafer scrap rates, and extreme spot LNG premiums….
Order 5: Semiconductor Supply Chains
Taiwan’s structural energy procurement framework ensures that the entire global semiconductor supply chain is acutely exposed to the mechanics of a Hormuz closure.
LNG Starvation: The island’s industrial apparatus requires importing nearly 98% of its total energy, with state-owned Taipower relying on LNG for 42% to 47% of its total electricity generation. Crucially, roughly 30% of this LNG is sourced directly from Qatar. The vulnerability is legally hardcoded: Taiwan’s statutory security storage requirement for LNG is a critically low 11 days. A cessation of Qatari flows, met by a desperate global bid for Atlantic cargoes, guarantees that Taipower’s percent operating reserves (POR) will collapse within two weeks. The inevitable bureaucratic response is mandated grid rationing and rolling industrial brownouts.
Voltage Sag Tolerance Limits: The foundries of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) demand absolute electrical perfection. Governed by the SEMI F47-0706 standard, advanced semiconductor processing and metrology tools are engineered to withstand voltage sags of 50% for exactly 200 milliseconds (0.2 seconds), 70% for 0.5 seconds, and 80% for 1 second. Historical precedent at the Hsinchu Science Park proves that a microsecond drop of a mere 0.1 seconds (at 79% to 95% nominal voltage) triggers massive internal tool failures, resulting in the catastrophic scrapping of tens of thousands of wafers and hundreds of millions in vaporized capital.
ABF Substrate Chokepoints: Simultaneously, the advanced packaging of completed silicon faces an intractable chemical bottleneck. Ajinomoto Build-up Film (ABF) substrates, the essential insulators for high-performance computing, are trapped behind 28-week lead times. The laser-drill capacity required to manufacture them is monopolized by LPKF Laser and Mitsubishi Electric, both groaning under 18-month backlogs. This restricts key suppliers like Ibiden and Shinko Electric, choking the final assembly lines of NVIDIA and AMD.
With my pinstriped labcoat on (chemist and VC), sulphuric acid is essential to the manufacture of just about everything:
– it is a strong acid for working with materials of all stripes and stages, from ore to finished product, and for providing acid conditions in chemical engineering, e.g. for catalysis.
– it is a strong oxidant for synthesising chemicals where you need to change oxidation state, either of the product at interim or final steps or of the other reagents (i.e. generating an active reagent in situ).
– it is the starting material for various sulphur-containing functional groups that are important in synthetic organic chemistry, either for their properties in the final product or their properties at interim steps (protecting groups, leaving groups etc.).
Without sulphuric acid, industrial life stops. Sulphuric acid production depends both on petrochemical energy and on sourcing sulphur from oil and gas refining.
For that matter, hydrochloric and nitric acid are equally fundamental, as is caustic soda (sodium hydroxide, a base). The nitric acid supply chain is linked to ammonia production which is dependent on natural gas production. Nitric acid has similar uses, bit different in specifics, to sulphuric acid.
Provided you have energy and equipment (assume a tin opener), hydrochloric acid and sodium hydroxide can be had from the electrolysis of brine and are less directly affected by oil and gas market disruption. They are not oxidising and are not such versatile sources of functional groups in synthesis but still very important in creating appropriate reaction conditions.
That is way more important than what I was nattering about. Appreciate being corrected. Want to get this right going forward
Revenant
Rereading my comment, it don’t want anyone to think caustic soda and chlorine (sourced from HCl) are not equal important in modern life. Chlorine is a vital reagent in bulk chemical synthesis. Chlorination of hydrocarbons is often the starting step to their nitration or sulphonation etc or to their polymerisation because chlorine is an excellent leaving group.
And caustic soda is essential for all the chemistry that requires basic conditions or the addition of oxygen-bonded groups to make ketones, aldehydes, ethers etc.
Valley Bob
I am a small almond farmer in the Calif. Central Valley. Highly concentrated H2SO4 is used by some farmers, running on wells, to break down calcium carbonate that accrues in the ground water and is detrimental to the trees. I use approx. 3,000 gallons of this acid–much more concentrated than common ‘battery acid’–to the tune of $5,000 per year. The company that supplies the acid is doing gangbusters; covid hurt their business so I can’t imagine what a shortage will do.
David
I’ve worked on chemical refineries in Teeside that used sulphuric acid for something or other in the process.
I’ve also worked in a plant that makes artificial vitiman C in Scotland (and apparently the only place in the world that does so outside of China) and it also used aulphuric acid in the process.
Stev_Rev
Thanks for the link. I think Tindale and Johnson have both identified risks but don’t understand the details of trade flows and technology enough to define well the knock-on effects.
Copper: globally, the industry is a net exporter of sulfuric acid, so I can’t see where this analysis comes from. There may be a mine here and there that imports, but overall effect would be small.
Polyesters: would depend on which refiners get oil. If Iran is still shipping to China (#1 or #2 producer of para-xylene) no problem. With other chemicals, too, would really depends on who gets the oil since individual refiners produce chemicals vs fuels to different extents.
Propylene: Similar to para-xylene, but also mitigated somewhat by a not insignificant trade of propane from the US to China and naphtha from US to Asian crackers.
Urea: Saudi Arabia accounts for about 15% of global exports, but is the only significant gulf exporter (and may be able to ship from ports on the west rather than through the Straits of Hormuz). As a lot of nitrogen applied to farmland gets wasted anyway, if price spikes/availability gets limited, farms can switch to delayed-release alternatives. So food is still available, but gets more expensive.
Energy: Overall, if LNG from Gulf gets disrupted, there will be local shocks for sure (especially if the EU limits supply from Russia), but expect China and India to switch back to dormant coal plants.
My two cents.
Who Cares
With regards to sulfur, worldwide 90%+ is being used to make sulfuric acid. And of that about 1/2 to 2/3 is used to make fertilizer.
So it should be up there with urea seeing that the loss of 40%+ of the world wide sulfur supply means a 20% to 25% drop in available phosphate+ and ammonium fertilizers.
Arkady Bogdanov
Before noting this, I will point out that the logistics/transport chain is much more high cost (truck/train vs bulk in ocean-going ships), but there are literal mountains of elemental sulfur piled up in Alberta as a by-product of tar sands oil production. Suncor and others have struggled to market it all. I suppose this would be a source for sulfur, but shipping it would definitely be more costly.
HH
This is a clear test of strength between Trump’s personality cult and the interests of the U.S. plutocracy. I’m guessing that the plutocracy will remove Trump by whatever means is most efficient.
But does anyone have a way out of this mess? Whoever replaces Trump then owns the problem.
The Rev Kev
Wouldn’t it have to be JD Vance as he is next in line of succession? Still, since the outbreak of this war, he has done a great imitation of the invisible man.
eugene linden
Agree that Vance seems to be positioning himself as the guy with the clean hands on this. Dangerous game though — who can he trust? Peter Thiel?
Anonymous 2
I was under the impression he is Thiel’s puppet.
anon
if i were him i would use the excuse of usha’s latest pregnancy and retire. getting handed the u.s. presidency right now is like winning a live tiger in a raffle.
YPG
I was listening to the March 6 edition of ‘Radio War Nerd’ with Mark Ames & John Dolan and Dolan pointed out that for decades the US has had powerful politicians that really and truly HATED Iran but that none of them were stupid enough to actually try to defeat it in a real war. So, I think you’re right, Yves, I think Trump and Bibi’s folly will become the US’s albatross, no matter who’s in charge.
Thanks for your diligence on this. I’d be lost on this subject without NC!
JohnnyGL
This right here. The US political elite finally found someone dumb enough to go for this. They’ve been waiting for decades to find their patsy, and it’s trump.
There’s so VERY LITTLE oppostition in congress.
John Wright
As I recall, chip etching is done with hydrofluoric acid aka HF.
Very nasty stuff, as it etches glass.
Sulphuric acid is used for cleaning in semiconductor precessing, not for etching.
Old Jake
Nonsense yes, but give a little credit for the “the usa is shifting from ground-based systems that do not work to space-based systems that do not work” bit. I, at least, got a chuckle from it.
motorslug
Too bad they can’t harness gastric acid, I’m sure there are millions like me who have more than they can use thanks to trump and the zionist lapdogs in the US.
vidimi
Marandi’s words ring very true to me and sound like the only viable objective for Iran’s long-term survival. A far cry from what Mercouris suggest they do, take the first off-ramp Trump gives them. So far, he’s been right about everything.
I’ve also listened to John Helmer on Nima’s show. He’s claiming the call Trump made to Putin is evidence Russia will ‘betray’ Iran in exchange for Trump facilitating an end to the Ukraine war and ease of sanctions. This strikes me as unbelievable for several reasons. Strategically, it would be an enormous strategic blunder to reopen unreliable trade with Europe in betrayal of long-term alliances in Asia. They know that the US is non-agreement capable and any promise from the US is not worth anything. Also, Europe has agency. Ukraine has agency. You have to look at what Russia is doing and, so far, there is no indication that they are putting any pressure on Iran.
More realistically, Russia is being strategically ambiguous. They are doing to Trump what Trump did to them. Promising they will stop helping Iran any minute now just like Trump has done with Ukraine.
YuShan
I watched Diesen’s programme last night and find Marandi interesting because it is rare to hear the Iranian perspective. However, while Iran has a pretty strong hand, it is delusional to think that Iran can demand much from the US.
There is also the problem that while they can completely destroy the Gulf states if they want, or even just close the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, this mostly hit countries other than the US and Israel. And then Iran will get blamed, not the countries that started this. The world would unite against Iran, including countries that are now neutral. I think that is where the real limits are to the power that Iran has in this.
Kouros
Given that Iran’s oil depos and installations are the ones being hit first (and desalination plant), the argument that Marandi/Iran makes, that the GCC oil installations serve US interests, I see his case clear. Also, the question is, why the world refuses to take a stance against Israel (already in the docks at ICJ/ICC) and the US as the agressors, and villify Iran? From what I have seen in Lavrov’s reply to GCC ambassadors, there is little chance for Iran to become isolated. And just look at the Spain’s PM and his government…
The Dune principle will apply: whoum has the power to destroy a thing is in control. As Marandi said aptly, if GCC oil and gas infrastructure is gone, their countries are gone. Less so with Iran.
And if the world is willing to indulge Trump and the US and Israel in this adventure, I think the world deserves a huge economic implosion, including you China.
YuShan
I think many/most (especially outside the West) would agree that US and Israel are the aggressors. However, once USrael stop their bombing campaign in an attempt to end it (because they have run out of interceptors) and Iran still keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed to extract concessions, then most will still blame Iran, because by keeping Hormuz closed Iran is imposing costs on them and they would argue that since USrael have already stopped bombing, it is now Iran’s fault.
Kouros
Iran can say that as long as US sanctions are in place and the world abides by them, the straits will be closed. Those sanctions are also a type of war after all, and they are illegal, not endorsed by the UN.
mrsyk
An Iranian enforced embargo seems like the following step to the US hoisting anchor and limping into the sunset. That “not one drop” sounds like a pillar of Iranian strategy.
dingusansich
Today I learned that there is a skin care business with the name Vichy. I mean, how apt is it to name a company after a government famous for saving its skin?
I mention this because I am coming to see most European states, and let’s not forget the EU, as attractions in a veritable Vichy theme park. I’m as susceptible to nostalgia as the next dingus (well, maybe not quite as much), but sheesh, isn’t there a limit?
Jeffrey Sachs, whom Britain and the U.S. blocked from addressing the Security Council, approached the Danish UN ambassador after her Iran tirade that, oopsie, forget to mention Iran was kinda, you know, sneak-attacked by the U.S. and Israel? She turned on her heels and marched off. Maybe they should rename it the Golding Chamber. They’ve gone feral.
It will be just like that with the GCCers. It’s all Iran’s fault. Yesterday I heard Norman Finkelstein quote (loosely, it seems) Mark Twain: “After God created sheep He realized that humans were superfluous.”
It’s hard not to see the economic damage, which sadly will affect the global majority as well, as blowback from the Gaza genocide. Europeans didn’t speak out against Israel and the U.S.—some assisted them—which led those goodly gentlemen and ladies to conclude that a war against Iran would meet no opposition but silence and fidgeting. Indeed, the Euros went that one better. They issued condemnations—of Iran. Vichy may be too kind.
Yalt
Vichy is a spa; it goes back to Roman times and the waters are supposed to have healing properties. The irony (which I suppose maybe isn’t quite the right word) is that that’s where Laval decided to set up the collaborationist government–the government named itself after the skin-savers, not the other way ’round.
hk
Kinda ironic given the history of the term “Copenhagening,” coined after British sneak attack on the Danish fleet when it appeared Denmark might ally with Napoleon. Used to be considered a good thing by Anglo Saxons, too–until Pearl Harbor.
jsn
Yves had a pretty detailed comment yesterday on Helmers advancing Putin Derangement Syndrome.
I like his analytical focus, but on Putin he’s got his thumb on the scale without knowing it.
vidimi
He’s always worth listening to or reading, but he always takes the pessimist’s view, regardless of whether it makes sense at a macro level. Countries make suicidal decisions all the time (cf India) so anything is possible but Putin’s Russia has consistently demonstrated strategic long-term policy.
Bazarov
“Putin’s Russia has consistently demonstrated strategic long-term policy.”
If you take the long view of Putin’s career, is this really true? Putin is the man went through two rounds of Minsk, who was dazzled by the likes of Angela Merkel (!!!) into letting a trapped Ukrainian army retreat from Crimea. Putin desperately wanted to be part of the neoliberal west, had more or less drunk the economic koolaid and would’ve been happy to let the same corrosive forces that destroyed the west do the same to what was left of his country if only they’d throw him a bone and say something like “We promise not to put missiles in Ukraine.”
I think Helmer is right when he describes Putin as a balancer of domestic interests, not a great political visionary. The economic improvement in Russia during his reign is to his credit, but it also should’ve been expected after the capital destruction that occurred following the Soviet Union’s fall and the depression of the 1990s. Russia after all remained a huge country with a big army, an educated population, and a lot of resources.
Putin’s extremely cautious and conservative. Frankly, I think he’s been a vacillating ruler. The Soviets, by comparison, acted much more decisively when challenged in their sphere of influence. It was foolish for Putin not to finish off Ukraine when Russia seized Crimea–for god’s sake half of Ukraine’s army had defected!
jsn
Not a great, political visionary, but increasingly looking like the, ingenious, pragmatic last man standing.
Not a Bismarck, maybe more Richelieu, though I’m struggling for an analogue.
YuShan
Well, hindsight is 20/20. The way he captured Crimea was really smart. And if you capture such a big prize without losses, I can understand that he chose to try to not antagonise the West too much after that.
It has also surprised me how persistently suicidal Europe (and to a lesser extend US) have behaved in the Ukraine war, so I cannot really blame him for not anticipating that. If his softer more reasonable approach had worked, it would have saved so many lives and treasure on both sides. And it almost worked (see Istanbul). So again I cannot blame him for trying.
Now the war is a catastrophe for both sides. Russia will win, but at an enormous cost. We can only speculate how it would have gone with a more hard line approach.
Kouros
The capture of Europe started after the 2003 Iraqi invasion. Col Wilkerson, who was in the thick of things then, has described the process several times. A generation later, the fruits of that expensive effort has paid back handsome returns… Now the US oil/gas patch is fully subsidized by the EU.
jsn
“The way he captured Crimea was really smart.”
You mean by not leaving when we asked him to?
“Russia will win, but at an enormous cost.”
To whom? Yes, a tremendous amount of historic Russia is being destroyed by Russia as it wipes the NATO proxy out of Ukraine. But in so doing Russia has solidified its autarky which should nicely insulate it from the economic anarchy we’re imposing on the Empire and its satrapies with our abject stupidity in both Ukraine and the Persian Gulf.
juno mas
Russia was not ready to militarily attack an entrenched and ground strong Ukraine armed forces when Russia allowed Crimea to decide its own fate. Putin is cautious; especially with other peoples lives.
ISL
If one follows the proposition that Russia pursues its interests, then helping Trump with an offramp is NOT in Russia’s interests. It is in Russia’s interest to see the decolonization of Western Asia – opening space for BRICS. It is in Russia’s interest to see India rewarded for its betrayal. It is in Russia’s interest to see the Western economies collapse. It is so much in Russia’s interest to have Iran destroy/attrit NATO – and much harder than Russia has been willing – I would have hit radars in Germany already. It is in Russia’s interest not to have NATO radar looking over the Caucasus. It is in Russia’s interest to see Japan and S Korea hurt and decolonized. Where will Taiwan get oil (as a province of China, they would be able to access its strategic reserves and oil supplies)? Chinese EV exports are going to turbo.
It is not in Russia’s interest to see damage to Southeast Asia – that is the only countervailing interest I can come up with.
I think Mercouris has an internal Overton window that he just hit – he certainly knows Clausewitz.
Revenant
This. It is in Russia’s interest to be the global swing producer of oil and gas. This is historically Saudi Arabia’s role in oil thanks to its famous (these days, allegedly mythical) space capacity and perhaps Qatar’s in gas. Now Russia has space capacity (because sanctions). Its political terns of trade are improved with everybody, West and BRICS, while the Gulf is shut. Why would Russia pull the rug on Iran?
Just possibly, if Russia gets what it wants in the Ukraine. But it will get that through attrition anyway. Maybe Iran has just prolonged the war in the Ukraine because Russia will take a maximalist stance on security architecture for both Europe and West and Central Asia…?
The Saudis export nearly 2x as much as Russia, which has now ALSO committed a lot of its exports to China. So this can’t happen. It does not have enough discretionary exports.
Revenant
My thinking was that the swing role is about who has headroom to produce more when demand spikes, rather than who is the biggest producer.
Saudi has negative headroom right now, all of its capacity is stoppered up in the Gulf and the pipeline to the Red Sea is a thin straw with which to meet its obligations. Until Saudi builds pipelines or the Gulf opens, either Russia or Venezuela has the biggest spare capacity.
I admit I don’t know to what extent Russia has retargeted the oil away from its pipelines to Europe to China and India. Ditto gas.
It’s important to know how much discretionary leverage Iran’s actions are creating for Russia, if any. You’re sceptical so I’ll try to find info to make a better case.
Oh, I don’t disagree that Russia can have an impact. But I doubt they have that much leeway, particularly if Russia has made significant commitments to China in the expectation that this war was coming.
Samuel Conner
It seems to me that Helmer tends to choose the least sympathetic interpretation of Putin’s actions that the evidence will support. I find it helpful to keep this in mind when reading or listening.
Mikel
Evidence is all the mobilization for war happening everywhere.
Henry Moon Pie
At a personal level, I appreciate Putin taking Trump’s call. Putin has met with Trump many times, and while a telephone call (or was it a videocall?) offers limited data, it would give Putin some basis to assess just how over the edge Trump is. When I think about the risks of limited or full-blown nuclear war, I’m hoping Putin and Xi are the sane ones, trying to figure out how to put down two rabid dogs without us all getting bit.
And considering that bad things tend to happen to Russia and potentially Putin when Putin is on the phone with Trump, I’ll offer the Russian President an additional word of thanks.
Louis Fyne
Alleged Iranian red lines to even return to the negotiation table. Can’t find the original article reference, but at the bare minimum reasonable to assume that Iran will want environmental clean-up costs from Israel
Except they never pay for anything, the US taxpayers do.
And the end of that should be the very first thing the replacement team does after midterms.
Dissident Dreamer.
Iran’s primary demand should be that International Law is applied to Israel and that Israel abides by it.
Most everything else follows. If Israel was put back in its box and “Greater Israel” was off the table this kind of catastrophe would never be repeated.
Where we are now is all about Israeli expansionism.
The UN has confirmed that all Israeli presence in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem is illegal and the same is true for Lebanon and Syria.
They must withdraw all troops from these areas to within the ‘67 borders and commit to returning all settlers within a reasonable time frame and they must recognise these borders in their constitution and by treaty.
When these things are done Hormuz will be opened.
It’s the two state solution. It’s the stated policy of almost every country bar the US and Israel. The world has wanted a solution to the Palestine situation for ever but has faced intransigence from those two countries. Now the RoW has skin in the game. Most countries are seeing rising prices and will suffer immeasurably more if this goes on much longer. They can apply much pressure on Trump.
Who loses? No one I can see except Israel which loses the ability to expand which it never legally had. It gains peace, normal life and commerce and Abraham Accords all round, including with Iran.
Trump could claim to have brought peace to the Middle East. Hell, give him the prize.
Is it too much to hope that Iran is thinking along these lines?
WJ
Israel would probably go the Samson option rather than accede to this.
Dissident Dreamer
Maybe. But Iran would not be destroyed. Its response would be justified and devastating.
The one state solution?
.Tom
The house always wins.
> From The Hill in Pentagon burned through $5.6B in munitions in first 2 days of Iran war
Well, you’re using a trick word: ‘military.’ Military, for the United States, is different from what the word ‘military’ meant in every other society from the beginning of time. When you say military, you think of an army fighting. You cannot conquer a country without invading it, and to invade it, you obviously need an army, you need troops. But the Americans can’t mount an army, of enough size, to occupy anybody except Grenada, or Panama, because the Vietnam War stopped the military draft. What America does have, what it calls military, is what you quite rightly linked it to: the military industrial complex. It makes arms. And weapons.
But again, these are a funny kind of weapons. Suppose you had a winery that made wine that was so good, that really wasn’t for drinking. It was for wealthy people to buy, and to trade. And as the years go by, the wine would turn to vinegar. It’s not wine for drinking. It’s wine for making a profit, a capital gain.
Well, you can say the same thing about America’s military arms, as we’re seeing in Ukraine right now — or as President Biden calls it, Iraq. The arms, basically, are there to create a huge profit for Raytheon, and the other companies in the military industrial complex. They’re for buying, and they’re for giving to the Ukrainians, to let Russia blow them up.
But they’re not for fighting. They’re not for winning a war. They’re for being used up, so you have to replace them now, with yet new buying.
From “Macro & Cheese – Michael Hudson: Is the US a Failed State?” July 20, 2023.
This isn’t the version I remember that was told more like a parable but it’s the best I could find.
Louis Fyne
>>>How long will they have to choke on their bigotry with respect to Iran’s military prowess
funny how Thermopylae and Alexander the Great (versus lame-o Darius) is common knowledge, but Crassus and Julian (360’s AD) are less well-knowm, lol
hk
You forgot Valerian, aka the Footstool.
vao
And Gordian the Third.
Battles such as Carrhae, Edessa, Misiche, and Barbalissos where stupendously crushing defeats for the Romans — enormous armies mobilized to subdue Persia wiped out on the battlefield.
Kouros
I liked Gore Vidal’s take on Julian the Apostate, who, in his view, was killed by his own Christian men rather than by the Persians…
rob
Do you see a potential upside for US agibusiness if Brazil sees a shortage of urea/fertilizer impact on their next season of soyabeans/grains? Could this potentially push China back towards having to purchase from USA and release some of the pressures on USA farmers/agribusinesses? Is there potential to spin this as a win for Red state farmers?
jefemt
Those Red-state farmers pay full retail for inputs: fuel, pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers. Some might have had the foresight to lock in such inputs in a pre-war sleepier time, but, as last years crop harvests and sales were hardly robust due to Tariffs, they might not have had the ready cash to do so.
I am skeptical that either Brazil or the US will have a great growing season. Weather being what it is becoming does not help.
Some old saw about all boats rising on a tide… this action by Team Trump,The Oxymorons, has knock on effects that are global. First up is hurt and chaos.
My take is that the US will hardly be in a position to push anyone to do anything- especially China.
We are becoming persona non grata, like a couple other nation-states: lets call that spade a spade: USrael— and Iran ! FFS, leave Cuba alone and throw them some resources, STAT.
my alloy-laden two cents
Vicky Cookies
Decolonization. Hopeful? Maximalist? Perhaps. But I am reminded of the late Robert Fisk, who, in characterizing the desires of people in the region in which he spent his adult life, said that what they wanted was justice. It would be just if the tyrannies which the American military and American companies impose on the region had their scaffolding recalled; it would be just if the launch sites for near-constant American aggression were removed; it would be just if the Israelis decided to live in peace with their neighbors, or de-camp. This doesn’t mean it will happen, of course, but we are seeing significant steps in those directions.
Nuremburg has misinformed many people about the history of war. Reparations then were an anomaly. When countries lose wars, there is a price paid but it is in social upheaval. I wonder, given the distance, both in the physical sense and with respect to Americans understanding of and concern for Iranian life, what the fallout will look like should the U.S. decisively lose this war. Arguments have been made that the U.S. has not won a war, with the exceptions of Panama and Grenada, since the second world war, but Americans are insulted from the harshest impacts. The bombed-out buildings in our ghettoes are only indirect effects of imperial conflict in the sense that the resources which might have repaired them went towards bombing other buildings in distant nations.
The economic choke-points which the Iranian and Yemeni governments control make it so the U.S. government could have a harder time telling us to believe that they won and it’s all over. I’ve been partially hoping that, beyond attempting to relax market jitters, the Trump administration would loudly declare victory while quietly acknowledging defeat by abandoning both bases and monarchs. I’ve been more hopeful lately; I stand by my previous comment to the effect that these events could open up space for an actual green transition.
Yves and the commentariat are to be profusely thanked for all the careful coverage and treatment. This war has been even harder to parse than last June’s (anyone else remember the AI slop-fight between the parties with fake images of gigantic downed planes?), but, as always, naked capitalism has kept its eyes resolutely on the real and the material.
vidimi
Marandi made clear that it didn’t matter to Iran who paid the reperations. It could be Israel (US indirectly), the GCC states, or Europe
I agree that is what he said but it is inconceivable that the US or Europe will pay reparations. It is a political and legal impossibility no matter how urgent the economic imperative. They will be extracted from the Gulf states.
vidimi
The mechanism could be something like Europe pays $5 over spot for energy to GCC, and GCC pay that premium to Iran for something like 20 years
“Europe” is not going to agree to reparations. The EU won’t agree.
And more important, Iran would not want to take the money from income flows. Too long to get a payoff, too easy to be cheated.
They will want assets the Gulf states have now.
marku52
how about transit fees on ships through the Straits?
The Rev Kev
Hmm. Those reparations could be in the form of interest-free loans. And the contracts for reconstruction could be given to Gulf State countries like the Saudis to sweeten the pot. Of course this would be contingent on the end of sanctions so that the Iranian economy could generate the money to pay back these loans but I would not be surprised to see the Chinese coming in to do reconstruction work as well.
Will
He also said Iran will start charging a toll for ships transiting Hormuz. Perhaps a reparations surcharge could be included till Iran is made whole for 47 years of sanctions, the US supported Iran-Iraq War, the 12-Day War and every other thing. For reasons, exemptions/refunds for states such as China?
I wonder in what currency the Iranian’s will levy the toll. Something other than USD?
Revenant
I think this toll is linked to reparations. Denmark used to control passage through the Kattegut into the Baltic. A point of contention with various powers (Russia, Hanseatic league etc). I think Britain burnt Copenhagen because of it!
I believe that in the early 19th century carious parties paid a one-off indemnity to Denmark for toll-free passage. It would surprise me if the principle of a toll is proposed as the gambit, to be traded for reparations as a liquidated sum *from the other Gulf States*. The Gulf States can stop paying the USA for weapons so they should have some cash to spare!
Socal Rhino
I think it is a bargaining position for negotiation with the gulf monarchies. They would quantify any compensation dollars in terms of number of F35s they won’t have to buy.
Revenant
Just saw your comment – snap!
Aurelien
“Decolonialisation” makes a good sound-bite for the Iranians, but I wouldn’t get too excited about it. The idea that places like Dubai or Bahrein won’t be subject to foreign influence any more for the first time in recorded history seems a trifle ambitious.
When I was young (possibly you also) we called it the Persian Gulf, and there’s no doubt that the Iranians want their Gulf back. To the extent that the US retreats (and to some extent even if it doesn’t), the Iranians will have the effective power of life and death over their neighbours, since they can destroy their economies and their cities without their neighbours have any protection or any means to reply. If that’s decolonialisation, it’s a very special type.
In any event, if the US and the West generally is forced out there will be two major consequences. One will be internal conflict, especially in countries like Bahrein which have a Shia majority (though no Sunni will accept that.) The other will be a new scramble for influence in the region, and attempts by these small weak states to find new allies and protectors. and by states such as China, India and Russia to expand their influence. I suspect we are only at the beginning of a long period of instability and conflict in the region.
JonnyJames
Long period of instability and conflict…I don’t see any other conclusion either. The balances of power if you will, are shifting. No empire in history goes quietly, and the US gets more reckless and desperate
The (artificial) borders and states of the region are largely a creation of western imperialism. Can they survive a shakeup? Would states like China (or Russia) have interests in maintaining these artificial states? Could the map be totally redrawn?
Aurelien
Less than you might think. Bahrein, for example, is very obviously an island when you see it, and most of the other Emirates are essentially based on millennia-old trading hubs. I don’t think there are any real territorial disputes between them. And there’s an important difference between lines on a map and cultural and religious communities. Most later divisions of the region were based on Ottoman provinces, which were themselves a matter of administrative convenience to Istanbul. The colonial territories that succeeded them between the wars were also essentially administrative: it was only later that nationalists tried to turn them into countries. There is a Syrian cultural identity for example (and has been for a long time) but it’s not necessarily attached to the detail of lines on a map.
Mikel
And colonization takes more forms than occupying land.
Anonted
It certainly is de-Westernization, which is, indeed, special. Time may tell whether it is superior, but the bar is pretty low in The Levant. Also, by the measure of Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya… it’s the continuation of a very long period of instability and conflict, with an opportunity to bring it to a close.
ISL
Reparations could include Iranian (or Iranian-Russian-Chinese) bases on the Arabian Peninsula to make certain the US and West stay out. Absent on location monitoring it is guaranteed the US deep state (aka the state) will begin infiltration the day after the US retreats.
hk
FWIW, reparations used to be fairly common consequence of wars before 20th century: reparations were such important part of French demands during Napoleonic Wars that at least one economic historian (Eugene White) argued that using reparations in gold and silver to shore up French national finances was an important part of French strategy at the time; there were also huge demands for reparations after the Franco-Prussian War, World War I, and the French defeat in 1940–just between France and Germany alone! In a sense, the relative absence of big reparations demands (at least those in cash) was the interesting feature of the end of World War 2.
Vicky Cookies
Thanks, hk, that is important modern historical context. I stand corrected.
Louis Fyne
pretty wild that credentialed people just assume the war will end if Trump says so.
if Pearl Harbor your opponent, you get no say in when the war ends unless that side is on the ropes.
(Russo – Japan War v. Pacific WW2)
Henry Moon Pie
“I’ve been more hopeful lately; I stand by my previous comment to the effect that these events could open up space for an actual green transition. ”
If not a green transition, a dramatic reduction in throughput that would slow down our march to 4+ degrees C.
Carolinian
A good new Patrick Lawrence on the terrible dereliction by the US MSM.
Of course Trump’s attitude is that mere voters shouldn’t worry about what is happening with their dollars and national honor. After all he is God’s instrument after being spared at Butler. Doubtless this is the line Lindsey has been feeding him.
However since everything for Trump is about money–when not about his ego–then he does get that high gas prices will get their attention no matter how vigorous the rest is being hidden.
I’m reading a book about the Vietnam situation in the early 60s and JFK too tried to control the coverage but the editors back in NY allowed it to continue even though they may have agreed with his goals. Even so the JFK and LBJ “best and the brightest” created an even greater disaster than the current one (so far) and the public overall may have known less.
David Harrison
What book are you reading?
Carolinian
Kennedy’s Coup by Jack Cheevers
Lee
Chaos by James Gleick to get me into the spirit of the moment, and The Three Pillars of Zen by Philip Kapleau to make my peace with the great void. Oh, and Naked Capitalism obviously and with gratitude.
Trees&Trunks
Regarding sending coordinates to Iran:
I wonder if the Iranians would notice if one instead of Gulf-locations sent them the coordinates to the EU commission, especially Ursula von der Leyen and Kaija Kallas, and the muppets in the EU parliament that banned import of Russian oil and gas, thereby impoverishing all of EU.
EU Commission
DD: 50.839496642 4.376331828
DMS 50°50’22.19″ N 4°22’34.79″ E
Geohash u1515x49xcjd2cuh
UTM 31U 596907.59281945 5632879.1250299
EU Parliament Strasbourg
DD: 48.597401 7.768825
DMS 48°35’50.64″ N 7°46’7.77″ E
Geohash u0ts2ych6spu
UTM 32U 409226.0636248 5383433.9223487
The Rev Kev
Newsflash: People were seen running and screaming as they fled the EU commission building in Brussels as well as the EU Parliament building in Strasbourg. In particular, Ursula von der Leyen was seen running down a Brussels boulevard shouting ‘Somebody save me. I’m too important to die.’
Trees&Trunks
Developing story update: “Last time Ursual von der Leyen and Kaija Kallas were seen, they were bum-fighting in the corner under the Manneken Pis”.
wetware_antenna
That’s some news that would definitely made my day.
Bugs
They obviously built those headquarters in the middle of civilian areas with the intention to use the innocent people there as human shields. Collateral damage is simply part of war.
Steve H.
The Tindale piece described mechanisms of rapid collapse. Climate change is the big dog but the timeframe is longer. Two musings:
:( Iran holds the key to western civilization. Decades of sanctions, assassinations of family, enormous oil reserves they can keep in the ground. Why would they give relief to the Great Satan? Is the Great Satan the US, oriented toward quarterly reports? But that empire is built on previous empires back to their crusading nemesis of the Catholic empire, built on capitalized trade over the last 500 years or so. But that was built on the shards of the Roman empire, dating back two or three millennia, fighting the Persians.
That is the Iranian timeframe, which we do not have the neurones to comprehend.
:? The sulfur to copper to electrical capacity chain reframed my thinking. AI and the data centers rely on them, but if the materiel ain’t available, then it would be a misallocation of capital to plan on facilities opening in five years. Further, presuming the goal is panopticon, it would be a misallocation of capital to let AI continue to be used as chatbot friends. Keep an eye out for crapification there. Further, since Wall Street is now an inverted pyramid based on the Nvidia/AI circle jerk, but the market is withdrawing funds, I’ll make a 50/50 prediction:
There will be a TARP-like bailout of the AI industry.
ISL
What will there be to bailout? The AI industry has obsolete hardware without the electric grid to run their models, which do not work (as in lower client costs). Will the fed try and goose the stockmarket back to the stratosphere? The auto industry has plants that could make cars that people want to buy. Other than just shoveling a trillion dollars into the pocket of Sam Altman for his private Island, what is there to bail out – they do not have a business model that will ever make money?
eg
Regarding the IEA call for the release of reserves, I heard a fellow on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning (for my sins) question the RATE at which this can be operationalized — his point being to question the efficacy of the measure not so much as a function of the stock as the flow. I think he might have said something like 2 million barrels a day as the maximum? In any event, it gave me something else to consider.
(Former Goldman guy — pretty sure that his name is Carlyle)
Acacia
Further to the argument by Craig Tindale, some news from Japan:
Mitsubishi Chemical Cuts Ethylene Production｜Strait of Hormuz Blockade Directly Hits Kashima Complex—Impacted Products, Companies, and Future Scenarios Explained https://note.com/so_nandachem/n/n5babcb2784ab
Excerpts (Translated):
Mitsubishi Chemical announced it will reduce the operating rate of its ethylene plant at the Kashima Complex (Kamisu City, Ibaraki Prefecture) starting March 6.
The reason is the disruption of naphtha imports from the Middle East due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“What is naphtha?” “How does reduced ethylene production affect my job or life?” — Many of you may be wondering this. (Honestly, terms like “naphtha“ or “ethylene” mean nothing to anyone outside the chemical and materials industries…)
This article aims to explain as concretely and simply as possible: “What will stop?”, “Which companies will be affected?”, and “What happens next?” […]
crude oil → naphtha → ethylene → various plastics and chemicals
[…]
Companies like Shin-Etsu Chemical (PVC), AGC, Nippon Polyethylene, Kuraray, and ENEOS Materials operate by receiving various materials and derivatives from the industrial complex. This is the essence of the structure where “if the industrial complex stops, everything around it stops too.”
Sunlight Disinfects
Establishment media still uncritical of Trump – despite most Americans being against the war (we are supposed to forget that, I guess).
Aljazeera: Focus is on Iranian escalation;
FT’ Martin Wolf: “There are lasting lessons about energy resilience to be learnt from this conflict.”
Gulf States (on Iran’s doorstep) continue to toe the US line. Bahrain has tabled a UN resolution demanding that Iran stop attacking them (and other Gulf States).
There’s surprisingly little backlash against Trump despite his having kicked-off this cluster-fuck. Some alt-media complains of Trump’s as Netanyahu’s puppy but mainstream media in US, Europe, Middle-East are still reporting like Iran is the problem (and always has been). Or, a focus on coping
Major bullshit from Trump is forgotten in a day or two:
● [I started it because] I didn’t like the way they were negotiating.
● The war will be over in 4 weeks … we planned for four weeks [no evidence of that] … it could even end much sooner than 4-weeks – THE NEXT DAY: The war will last more than four weeks, possibly much longer.
● Maybe it was an Iranian missile [that killed dozens of school girls].
● I will pick the next Iranian leader.
● We did the world favor.
Can Iran feel safe from Western meddling in the middle-east unless/until the Western establishment refuses to recognize the shameless mendacity and hubris of its leaders?
vidimi
The establishment media was all aboard regime change in Iran so it’s too early to walk that back. It’s also still too early for those “I agree with the rightness of this war but not the way it is being prosecuted” Guardian-type opeds.
WJ
This is because 99% of the Democrats and 99% of the European governing class are all in favor of a regime-change war against Iran. They don’t like Trump, but he’s doing their dirty work for them, which is why they will only criticize tactics, vision, planning, etc. but never come out against the war per se.
JonnyJames
Yeah, polls show very little support for the war, yet the US and vassal regimes, with support from the loyal oppositions, promote more war. And they call these regimes “democracies” and all that. Yeah right
Hypocrisy, lies and double-standards are so embedded in western culture, most can’t see past them
Laughingsong
Hypocracies?
Lefty Godot
Trump is going full Biden with the “beheaded babies” nonsense, etc. The media have to be working overtime to make it seem like Everything Is Fine and that the war Is Proceeding According to Plan. The guy is another brain-damaged doofus, and one who was never better than a well-lawyered, crooked real estate nepo-baby to begin with. I don’t know how anyone exposed to his ramblings can think other than that the country is in the worst possible hands right now. No matter how Fox and WaPo and WSJ and CNN and the rest try to spin it. Caitlin Johnstone had an article last month, We Deserve Better War Propaganda, that sarcastically laments that the propaganda is so lame, as if they are purposely shoving unbelievable and incoherent crap in our faces to show how little they respect the American people and care about what the people think.
Kouros
I have seen a montaj yesterday with ” Short term pain for long term gain” repeated at nauseam on the US TV channels.
Alex Christoforou 2 days ago, cued up to 38:45 (the very end)
Acacia
Establishment Empire media
Sibiriak
A classic example of New York Times spin technique:
Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base
The Feb. 28 school strike in Minab, which killed dozens, including children, appears to have been part of an attack on an adjacent naval base in southern Iran, where officials said U.S. forces were operating.
N.B.: “killed dozens ” // “including children” // “part of an attack on an adjacent naval base”.
upstater
WTF? the gray lady provides cover and excuses for warmongering Zionists at home and abroad. Who wouldda thunk? Think of 7 million NYT PMC subscribers reading this rubbish and believing it. MSM is an echo chamber.
In the lead-up to the U.S.-Israeli attack, President Trump downplayed the risks to the energy markets as a short-term concern that should not overshadow the mission to decapitate the Iranian regime.
…
Chris Wright, the energy secretary, told an interviewer he was not concerned that the looming war might disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East and wreak havoc in energy markets.
…
Mr. Trump has displayed growing frustration over how the war is disrupting the oil supply, telling Fox News that oil tanker crews should “show some guts” and sail through the Strait of Hormuz. [I volunteer Hegseth as an honorary captain]
…
The confidence that White House officials had that the shipping lanes could stay open is surprising given that Mr. Trump authorized a military campaign last year against the Houthis, a Yemeni group backed by Iran, that had used missile and drone attacks to bring maritime commerce in the Red Sea to a halt.
erstwhile
To hell with the strait of Hormuz. Trump ought to “show some guts” and, by himself, without any protection, as a free man, walk down any street in the country, maybe somewhere in Queen, or on Third Ave. in Seattle. I’d like to see his guts, if he got any, that would be something to see.
SDB1
Re: Mizrahi on US and Israel interests in the Iran War diverging. Yes. I don’t think US wants to reconstruct destroyed bases in Gulf. Probably just wants rapid exit from ME. Israel wants destruction of Iran, which it’s not going to get. May instead achieve its own destruction. Would Trump be okay with Israel self-immolation? Maybe…
The Rev Kev
Maybe I missed it but has this war been taken to the UN Security Council at all? Considering the fact that this war is nearly fortnight old and threatens to push the world into a global recession, you would think that it would have priority.
Yes, right at the outset. I recall a long, correctly aggrieved and well-crafted speech by the Iranian ambassador and the US ambassador with the ugliest scowl on his face imaginable. Sorry for not running it down but it did happen pretty pronto.
Recall that Lavrov’s dressing down of the Gulf foreign ministers was over a UN resolution they wanted to propose at a later UN discussion
Sunlight Disinfects
From Aljazeera’s Live Feed (about 7 hours ago):
UN Security Council to vote on draft demanding halt to Iranian attacks
The UN Security Council will vote later today on a resolution introduced by Bahrain condemning Iran for its attacks on several Arab countries in the region.
The proposed resolution calls for an immediate end to Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, as well as an end to the use of proxy groups.
Odds are high that Russia will veto it or seek to amend it and get the US in a hissy. Lavrov already lectured the GCC ambassadors than any resolution needed to be proportional and tell the US and Israel to stop shooting. So they ignored him and went ahead.
Lefty Godot
Israel has been ignoring UN resolutions for decades. I don’t see any reason Iran couldn’t ignore one for a few more weeks, which is probably all they need, while temporizing in their diplomatic response and making noises to indicate that they are seriously looking at it. After the Gaza “peace” resolution I am less sure that Russia and China will be using their veto on the side of the angels when it comes to Middle East conflicts. Hope I am wrong about that.
motorslug
Is there a prediction market bet for a China and Russia abstention? Sadly, I’d go with that.
dommage
You would have won. Thirteen in favor, none opposed, two abstentions (China and Russia). Brings to mind the 2011 “no fly zone” Security Council resolution that authorized any member state to take “all necessary steps” to protect civilians in Libya. Russia and China abstained on that one too. And, despite massive differences in the situations, there is one reason that is the same: relations with the Saudis and the gulf states. I suggest not too much be made of the formality of a Security Council Resolution; Israel and the U.S. have robbed the UN of what authority its formalities ever had. The UN now has greater authority from its acts that cannot obtain formality than those that can, see for example Francesca Albanese. The importance of the abstainers acting in concert is what is of over-riding importance.
There are currently two draft resolutions in blue addressing the crisis. Bahrain’s draft on behalf of the GCC and Jordan condemns Iran’s strikes against these countries; determines that these acts constitute a breach of international law and a serious threat to international peace and security; deplores that civilian objects have been targeted and that the attacks resulted in civilian casualties; and demands that Iran immediately halt the attacks against these countries and fully comply with its obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law (IHL). The draft text in blue also condemns any actions or threats by Iran aimed at closing or obstructing international navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. It does not mention the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
The other draft resolution in blue was authored by Russia. It is shorter and more general than Bahrain’s and does not name individual countries. The draft text mourns the “tragic loss of life throughout the ongoing hostilities” in the Middle East and urges all parties to immediately stop their military activities and refrain from further escalation in the region and beyond. It condemns all attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, calls for their protection in line with IHL, and underlines the importance of ensuring the security of all states in the region. The draft resolution in blue further encourages all parties to “return to negotiations without any further delay” and to make full use of political and diplomatic means to address the crisis.
Bahrain circulated the initial draft of its resolution on 6 March. The following day, Russia circulated its alternative text. On Monday (9 March), Bahrain held a round of consultations on its draft, which China and Russia apparently criticised for being unbalanced and confrontational and failing to consider the root causes of the conflict. It seems that several other Council members expressed general support for the text.
Following the consultations, Bahrain circulated a revised draft with minor edits that slightly moderated language on the Iranian strikes while still condemning them. References to the US-Israeli strikes on Iran were not added. Bahrain put the revised draft under silence procedure until yesterday morning (10 March). China and Russia broke silence, reiterating their previous comments. Bahrain proceeded to put the draft in blue without making further revisions.
So please tell me where the betrayal is? China and Russia objected before the vote and during the debate.
In addition, it is undeniable that Iran’s attacks in the Gulf have gone beyond military targets. Iran effectively argued that because it cannot hit the US for its attacks on civilian assets like its passenger airport, it can attack similar assets in Gulf States that have US basses. But consider: the drones that have been hitting the Dubai airport have made it very hard to fly through there. As one of many examples, a lot of Russians visit and even own property in Thailand. Far and away the best route is through Dubai. Most I know here who are seasonal vistiors buy their tix well in advance. So Russia may even have felt it had domestic reasons to maintain the pretense that it is supporting Iran only in its defensive actions.
China’s posture is to be anti war in general. Russia is probably the only country that can broker a possible solution, not that that seems likely. So they may have felt the need to sit on their hands. Given that they did get some of the changes they sought, and given that the Western press (NYT, IIRC) had reported that Iran is providing intel support to Iran (as is China via among other things its spy chip and publication of satellite images of US bases, which has not stopped), they may have felt they went as far as they could. Remember the strikes on the Gulf States are hurting the Global South via higher energy prices and risks to critical commodities like urea, as discussed above.
And as Lefty Gogot pointed out, as we saw with Israel, these UN votes mean nothing.
And . so
vidimi
Thank you. Indeed, it doesn’t change much on the ground, but I saw Craig Mokhiber’s post about it and he was pretty upset. What it does is send a signal that Iran is on its own. But it also gives currently non-aligned countries like Pakistan a pretext to align themselves against Iran since they can argue following a UN mandate but.
Ex-PFC Chuck
Just spit-balling here, but first a few caveats: I know almost nothing about the shipping industry and even less about the insurance business; not to mention the obstacles that stand in the way of organizing and managing what I suggest below. But the downstream effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are so ominous for so many, as described by Craig Tindale in a piece linked on this side a few days ago, that it’s urgent we begin thinking now about ways to ameliorate them. So here goes.
Let’s suppose the China and Russia, with Iran’s consent, organize a consortium to provide state-backstopped insurance for shipments into and out of the Persian Gulf. (Other countries may be included in the consortium as China and Russia see fit.) This arrangement will be enforced by onsite naval assets of member countries of the consortium, and it will remain in effect at least until the hostilities incited by Operation Epic Fury are resolved by a formal agreement among the contending parties.
To be insured shipments must meet the following criteria:
* Neither the originating nor destination countries are actively or passively complicit in the USA/Israel coalition’s ongoing attacks on Iran (e.g. formal or de facto military alliance therewith, hosting USA/ISR bases, allowing military fly-overs to and from Iran, transferring munitions to the USA or ISR, etc.).
* Vessels must be owned by entities domiciled in countries that are either neutral or aligned with Iran in the current conflict, and flagged by such countries as well.
Countries that theretofor did not meet these criteria can apply for a change of status if they formally commit to rigorously meeting them in the future. If such a change of status is granted to a country and it later violates the criteria, the status will be revoked and the country will not be reconsidered for a status change in the future.
The main beneficiaries of this arrangement will be the people of the bystanding countries, primarily in the global South, whose lives will be most severely impacted negatively by the closure of the strait. The geopolitical ramifications of this arrangement will also be significant; they are also unpredictable.
jefemt
I believe that the people in the Global South are already suffering, have learned to do without… arguably will see the least change in their lives of privation and global neglect.
It will be the middle earth folks that will not have the faintest clue about , ‘making do’.
We are spoilt.
“When the Revolution comes, will your bicycle be ready?”
Che Guevara (Kidding!!)
Anonted
Me thinks you underestimate the effectiveness of World Bank food-policy, now with generations of depth in developing nations. Most have replaced locally grown produce with cheaper, foreign goods. The agricultural know-how lost from these communities took millennia to acquire, not to speak of the topsoil destroyed by the for-export monocropping that replaced it. Then whatever food industry is maintained is sustained by artificial (read: oil) means. They may not be watching the stock market, but the Global South are sensitive to food prices, and it’s hard to ‘make-do’ when there’s nothing to make it with. Already Suffering = Dead when things get worse. Cue the warlords seizing sacks of rice.
Might be time to learn how to shoot (accurately), purchase an almanac… wonder how those hold up in this climate?
JonnyJames
Great to see Col. Wilkerson on HypocrisyNow! Finally they have an honest guest about the Iran war.
I have been quite disappointed to see that they have been demonizing the “Iranian regime” with interviews from pro-Pahlavi types. They routinely refer to the Iranian government as “regime”, and do not use this term for the Gulf Arab dictatorships, the US or Israel. They often repeat lies about Iran. (as they have been demonizing Russia for years).
Prof. Marandi has pointed out how the “liberal” and what passes for left media in the US are just as bad as the authoritarian, right-wing warmonger mainstream media. The subtle and not so subtle Orientalist tropes do not go unnoticed.
To the good professor’s credit, he has proved to be quite accurate in his predictions: he predicted that Iran would vigorously attack US military assets in the Persian Gulf region, that the Resistance would be activated in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon (and soon Ansar Allah in Yemen). The Strait would be closed etc.
As pointed out by Yves, and with Craig Tinsdale article mentioned last week, the potential for catastrophic consequences should not be understated. MacGregor, Wilkerson, Marandi, Crooke and others have also pointed out the likely negative results.
Given all of this and more, it is extremely difficult to remain optimistic and not fall into cycle of anger and depression. This site and like-minded, informed, intellectually-honest folks here are a life-line: in addition to excellent information and analysis, it is a sort of support group, thank you
Afro
Can Iran’s submarine fleet hit targets in the US proper?
Are submarines easily hidden or do they easily blast on modern sonar?
Ghost in the Machine
I am more worried about Israel’s submarines and nuclear blackmail.
hk
Diesel Electric subs, especially in coastal waters, as I understand it, are quieter than nuclear powered ones (nuclear powered boats are louder b/c reactor cooling systems always make noise). Not sure if most conventional subs nowadays (Australia being the one exception and Israel being a sort of an exception–but their boats don’t exactly sail on high seas either.) are desgined, or, even if they are, have crews trained, to operate on high seas, though. I’d be skeptical if Iranian subs can operate anywhere beyond the Arabian Sea.
Polar Socialist
The best submarines Iran has are 3 Russian Kilo-class vessels. Apparently in right conditions (running on electric motors, close to the noisy surface) it’s a “black hole”, meaning quieter than the environment.
Without a support ship on the surface they have range to reach Madagascar or the Strait of Malacca.
Carolinian
A few days old but this long Blumenthal report on how Trump was convinced that Iran was trying to kill him worth a look.
With the Trump campaign already consumed with anxiety, the FBI delivered an alert that sent them spiraling into the depths of paranoia.
According to the Bureau, Iran had placed operatives inside the country with access to surface-to-air missiles. This dubious warning prompted Trump’s already militarized security team to take an extraordinary step. Fearing that Iran would down the famous “Trump Force One” airliner at any moment, Trump was placed on a “ghost flight” owned by his golf buddy, real estate tycoon Steve Witkoff, while the rest of his campaign traveled on the main jet.
Joining Trump on the secret decoy plane was his campaign manager, Suzie Wiles, who would go on to become White House chief of staff, controlling access and the flow of information to the president. Unbeknownst to the public, Wiles had served as a paid advisor to Israel’s Netanyahu during his 2020 re-election campaign, consolidating her role as a key point of contact between Tel Aviv and Trump.
Journalist Ken Silva has revealed that the FBI alert which prompted Trump’s use of a “ghost plane” was based on a cynical deception. As Silva explains in his forthcoming book on the assassination plots surrounding Trump, federal investigators had discovered that Routh, the would-be assassin at Mar-a Lago, had attempted to purchase a rocket launcher, and may have been in contact with Iranian nationals during his time in Ukraine. The Bureau likely massaged that information into the bogus report it provided the Trump campaign, conjuring up imaginary Manpad-toting IRGC operatives to exacerbate the candidate’s fears.
Trump Energy Chief Accused of Manipulating Oil Markets With Deleted Post About Strait of Hormuz
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former fracking executive, was accused on Tuesday of manipulating global markets after he posted a striking claim on social media: The American Navy, he wrote, had “successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing.”
The post on X was deleted minutes later, after “oil prices slid at their steepest pace in years,” according to the Wall Street Journal. The White House press secretary later acknowledged publicly that Wright’s claim was false
Millions of Americans can now claim Canadian citizenship by descent.
But they have to prove it
Bill C-3, which came into effect Dec. 15, removes first-generation limit for citizenship
*Claim your citizenship certificate. We are citizens just in time for the hockey teams to not win.
Thomas Schmidt
Thank you for this.I’ve sent it to people who can use it.
Sunlight Disinfects
From Aljazeera liveblog (about 20 min ago):
“… the IEA has recommended countries release emergency reserves of about 400 million barrels of oil.
Under the plan, the organisation would oversee a staggered release of the oil over the coming days, weeks, or even months.
They say an impact could be seen in two to four weeks …”
= =
Isn’t this nothing more than a band-aide? By the time there’s any release, the world will have experienced an oil shortfall that is about the same as the IEA’s authorized release (which then occurs over weeks or months).
Expected market reaction?
>> Risk-off: Trump has space to conquer Iran?
>> Risk-on: No end of war in sight?
Western media will likely play up the former: they won’t counter Trump’s “we haven’t won enough yet” bluster.
Iran says its policy for reciprocal strikes “has ended”, a spokesman for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters says in a statement.
Tehran’s policy now will be “strike upon strike,” spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari says.
Tehran will “not allow even a single litre of oil” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach the US, Israel and their partners, Zolfaqari adds. “Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target.”
“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised,” the spokesman adds.
One of the ships reported it had been struck 11 nautical miles north of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire onboard and forcing the crew to evacuate, the UKMTO said, without identifying the vessels.
Two other incidents were also reported on Wednesday morning, with one vessel struck by a projectile about 50 nautical miles northwest of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and another sustaining damage off the coast of the UAE.
The UKMTO urged vessels in the area to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity while authorities continue to investigate.
Thailand’s navy said a Thailand-flagged container ship with 23 people onboard had been attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. Photos showed black smoke billowing from the Mayuree Naree vessel.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards later said they had fired on the vessel in the waterway, Reuters reported, citing the semiofficial Tasnim news agency.
Yes, also posted by me upthread. But thanks for making sure it was not missed.
Acacia
Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200
I’m going to assume this is their target price, and they intend to keep Hormuz closed until the West is feeling some major pain. The Iranians have been pretty good at keeping their promises. IEA emergency measure of releasing emergency reserves could mitigate, but for how long?
The price of oil has been consolidating around 90. It’s almost certainly not going back to 70 anytime soon.
the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised
FAFO, Mr. Trump.
Richard Childers
“The moves in yields and inflation expectations have hardly been the stuff of nightmares.”
Only if you dream about money or profiting from investments derived from proprietary information and speculation – which is not economic activity, it is predation.
I don’t think you meant to use the word ‘hardly’ in the sentence, above, that negates your meaning.
Do you make a habit of showing how poor your reading comprehension is?
1. That is quoted text from Axios. You have NO business in accusing us of emoting.
2. Had you bothered reading what Axios said? They meant EXACTLY what that text said, that the changes in yields and inflation expectations were ho hum so far.
This sort of out of line, negative value added comment is why you are in moderation. I let this out only to chew you out. I won’t approve further lame remarks like this.
Richard Childers
“What sort of spoofing would lead to ships being reported at speeds of 100 knots?”
At the low end, a small shell script that iterates, over and over, generating random integers and plugging them into a program that uploads false location reports to the central database from which all this data is drawn. Could be running on a Raspberry Pi, drawing just a few watts.
At the high end, Claude or ChatGPT, doing the same thing, but burning through billions of CPU cycles and gigabytes of RAM and consuming megawatts of power.
It’s the Pentagon, so probably the latter.
Louis Fyne
so while I getting packing tape at Mega-Lo Mart, I bought some extra of my favorite motor oil as it is at a price that can’t go any lower even if there never was a war.
I’m burnt out on being Mad Max, but next time I’m at the ESG Warehouse Club, I’m going to buy a little more of stuff that I’m going to randomly guess might be affected by supply chain disruptions a la Covid: cashews, coffee, etc. (not buying pallets of lentils, lol)
Everyone has to think about this given their own circumstances: medicine, pet stuff, looking to paint your house this summer?, are you a contractor that does ### storm-damaged roofs every season, etc.
Widgets with long supply chains, and/or hydrocarbon-derived. And something that if you buy too much of, it’s no big deal, just a minor annoyance that you have to work through.
Do not buy a pallet of widgets on the expectation of flipping each widget on eBay, lol.
Jason Boxman
Do not buy a pallet of widgets on the expectation of flipping each widget on eBay, lol.
They went after that dude that bought up all the hand sanitizer in 2020 as I recall and then resold it.
begob
Outed as comedian Albert Brooks in the popular investigative TV series Curb Your Enthusiasm.
amfortas
if i can still afford it next payday, a few more chains and air filters and such for the chainsaws, as well as fuel and bar n chain oil…thats top of my list, right now….and likely doable, so long as mom doesnt notice me charging the latter 2 at the feedstore,lol.
already got 100 gallons of gas on hand, with ‘stabil’….and when truck gets down to 3/4, i fill it up again…which is what im continually bitching at the boys to do.
but im very poor,lol…and can only do so much.
biggest garden since Tam got sick, though….lasagne rehabbing 2 beds this year:cardboard and paper feedsacks, then hay and birdshit from the 2 chickenhouses, then city mulch and rotted manure. most of what i planted is in rotted manure filled lick tubs thatare also helping to hold all this down during wind season.
ill dump them out in situ next winter, an o the whole thing over for 3-4 years=>few weeds, no hoeing, french intensive, again.
Louis Fyne
being handy with a chainsaw is an excellent skill to barter with.
The best applied physicists outside of academia are people who know who to handle a chainsaw, no joke.
Spoken from personal hacking experience w/a chainsaw—-fortunately I have not severed my own limb or fell a tree onto a neighbor’s fence, lol
Ann
Thousands of pets being abandoned in Dubai as owners flee over Iran war
The same way is NOT ‘participating’ in the Gaza genocide, eh?!
When ICJ was supposed to provide a ruling a year or two ago about the legality/illegality of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories, Canada intervened on behalf of Israel. But provided its remarks in a sealed envelope so its position would not be caught on camera and on record for public view. At least Hungary had the courage to speak out its position. So I don’t believe the Canadian politicians statements one iota.
Don
I agree completely, they are slippery weasels (apologies to genuine furry weasels), and note the phrasing — Canada will not participate in attacks on Iran — but help shoot down Iranian missiles, vote for anti-Iranian motions at the UN, support and impose sanctions, refuel Israeli and US aircraft and generally do everything they can to discredit and undermine Iran — sure, no problem!
Windall
With regards to Iran mining the Straits of Hormuz. Don’t they have some capability in UUV’s (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles)? And UUV’s have at the very least the upside of not needing to do the difficult work of cleaning mines out of the ocean after this is over.
Socal Rhino
Per Iran they have rocket-fired mines.
The Orange Man
Are you talking about Iran, or the US?
Both have UUVs, but for a variety of physics reasons, it is difficult to communicate under water (not impossible, just a lot more difficult than communicating above water). Most UUVs are therefore pre-programmed and “autonomous” unless they receive an interrupt request.
But Iran wouldn’t really need this, presuming that they are the ones laying the mines, as they would likely simply map their locations and (possibly) program them to self-destruct if given a very particular set of signals. I am simplifying a bit, but that’s the gist of it.
“I love apocalyptic scenarios, but I don’t think I would survive one.”
😂👍
Yalt
“If any good songs are going to come out of World War III, we’d better start writing them now.” -Tom Lehrer
Oregon Lawhobbit
Maybe the word we should be looking at is not “reparations,” but rather “tribute,” as the new-dominant power in the region begins collecting up “everything but some completely immovable geographic features” from the losers who backed the wrong horses in this matter.
Socal Rhino
Sorry if I missed this above but one of the measures still available to Iran on the escalation ladder is destruction of desalination plants in the gulf. Gulf monarchies are almost completely dependent on desalination for drinking water. Everyone would need to move.
The Orange Man
I am somewhat surprised a new crop of US politicians have not yet called for the end of AIPAC (or at least forcing them to register as a foreign lobby)
Maybe this needs to wait a couple of more months, but whoever does that will likely get a ton of donations and a lot of votes in the upcoming elections in all but the most pro-jewish ridings
And their popularity would just increase monotonically until they renege on their promises in January…
Socal Rhino
What they have been doing lately is funneling contributions through cut-outs. Someone has documented this, I can’t recall who.
I think some would look for application of FARA which uniquely is not applied to Israel.
I’d like to see prohibitions on office holders holding multiple passports.
I posted a comment on this a couple of days ago. We might even extend the thought experiment like so: imagine an Otherwise Party. It would be an entirely virtual overlay of the existing structures. Its only mandatory Venn intersection would have to do with funding from the Israel lobby. A Democrat can run on Democrat things, and a Republican can do likewise as a Republican. That’s why it’s called the Otherwise Party. Apart from the Israel lobby commitment, those who join it remain conventional D’s and R’s. No third-party ballot access rigamarole. No platform fights. Just a minimalist, focused political intervention. Want to hear out pro-Israel people? No problem. But no money.
Blue skies, nothin’ but blue skies … Remember, though, that single-issue movements, reform caucuses, and pledge-based coordination aren’t without precedent. An OP may not be likely, but it’s possible, FWTW.
Louis Fyne
no one wants to be the first one in a charge. a self-evident observation from Feral Historian. (i forget which video, lol)
Sites like MarineTraffic are gathering data from world wide vessel traffic services (VTS). VTS is a combination of marine radar and transponder information using Automatic Identification System data:
Typically for a “small boater” this consists of interfacing the GPS to an AIS enabled VHF radio. The data is broadcast on a dedicated VHF channel as long as the radio and GPS are powered up. A MMSI number set in the radio provides the identification data that is transmitted with the position and speed/direction data:
Larger boats do even more. The AIS data from the VHF radio is interfaced to a chartplotter so that the surrounding ships are shown on the display overlayed on electronic charts which can also display the boat’s radar data which is also interfaced to the autopilot so it can steer the boat and so on.
Marine vessels do even more, but in all of this, it’s pretty easy to manipulate the data your vessel sends out via AIS (or just turn it off). At some point this breaks maritime standards and becomes somewhat illegal and stupid (since most VTS systems are also using marine radar to track position and speeds). I think there are people much better versed on maritime law so I hope they can address that if there are questions.
Glen
I should add that it looks like GPS jamming is indeed happening in the straits:
So if the GPS data is getting jammed, it can cause some real havoc with the navigation systems on these vessels, and you’ll see some some crazy AIS data reported (like if the GPS reported position jumps significantly between readings then the computed course/speed will go goofball.) If the data is just missing, the ships could use a combination of course/speed along with position information from the VTS (assuming the VTS has radar – all in the US do) via radio/sat.
What a mess.
ChrisPacific
It was reported on the news here the other day that 22% of New Zealand’s nitrogen fertiliser comes from the Gulf. That might not sound like a lot, but it’s a critical resource here – a lot of the dairy export growth to places like China has been achieved through dairy conversions and intensification, which relies heavily on nitrogen fertiliser to be viable.
The article said that farmers typically stockpile for autumn around this time of year and that they are probably OK for the next few months as a result. After that it’s likely to become painful. Some of the farmers interviewed explicitly talked about increasing their stores more than usual to insulate against that scenario (and because they expect prices to go up). If enough of them are thinking that way then I expect higher prices and competition for supply right away, even if any actual impact to agricultural output is delayed.
ChrisPacific
On another note (reply to comment about New Zealand in moderation): Watties, a local producer of canned and frozen fruit/vegetables for generations, just announced a plan to shut down local operations due to poor competitive position relative to imports. So if globalisation breaks down, the oil price skyrockets and world trade becomes balkanised, we’ll be awash in dairy, beef and lamb, while having gotten rid of most of our vegetable and grain production (oh, and we won’t be able to source the fertiliser for large animal fodder). At least the local fruit industry is still healthy, for now.
AG
CONSORTIUMNEWS has an interview with a former Israeli military intelligence officer: Ari Ben-Menashe.
I intended to note the talking points but found myself transcribing the entire conversation so I guess you should rather listen to all of it.
Others here can assess this better than me however.
In very short he argues, Trump is being blackmailed by Netanj. who needs war to stay out of prison.
Ben-Menashe hopes Trump will end the war in a few days.
Trump was forced to go to war in the last moment by Netanj.
He believes their relationship has cooled down, which is why e.g. Witkoff/Kushner did not go to Israel recently as had been planned.
He also claims direct negotiations between US and Iran are taking place now.
He warns of the “sinister” visit of Modi to Israel which had only one purpose – to inform Netanj. about how India would react were Pakistan to assure Iran of nuclear retaliation against Israel in case Netanj. would choose to use nukes – which Ben-Menashe thinks is very possible with Netanj. but unlikely because too few people (including US) would want that.
‘The Toll on Israel’
March 10, 2026
p.s. He kind of reminded me of Helmer where one too wonders if he actually ever leaves his living room to talk to sources outsde and meet human beings or only speaks on the phone, by pigeon mail or some other ancint methods. (this is no intended as criticism.)
Louis Fyne
IMO, trump doesn’t need to be blackmailed. Dude survived a bullet by inches, got 2 terms, probably feels indestructible. Trump is a guy who puts personal bonds, personal lobbying over rational analytics.
then toss in the transient strokes hypothesis affecting his judgment (which I 100% align myself with).
Hubris walks w/Nemesis
ymmv.
Samuel Conner
Two things struck me in listening — 1) AbM came across as very confident that damage was relatively slight, but it’s not clear what his information sources are, 2) he seems unreasonably confident that the Iranians will cooperate with DJT’s desire to wind down the conflict. My perception from other commentary, such as that of Alexander Mercouris, is that the Iranians are done with temporary truces and want to fight to a durable peace. It is reported that there were voices in the Iranian military that wanted to press their perceived advantage in late June 2025; one would think that this view has been vindicated by events, and another de-escalation to give Israel a “breather” might now be widely regarded to be unwise.
AG
I assume I am willing to go along with AbM´s optimism out of sheer desperation/hope and against my better judgement. Maybe he is as good as half of his points. That would give us at least the chance of the toss of a coin to end this earlier than anyone here would believe.
Clwydshire
Here is a kind of unique video that makes you wonder just who might win the propaganda wars in the end. I am not able to copy it, but I would if I could, because it is likely to be taken down. If you like someone like Mizrahi for his darker side, you might enjoy it. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4NSFyTZnx_c?feature=share It features a black American preacher type eloquently “telling it like it is.” I suppose the smoothness of the rhetoric might be taken to indicate some AI content, but it is still a small work of art.
debug
Thank you Clwydshire.
“The veil is off.”
As one well acquainted with the genre and style, the rhetoric and voice seem authentic to me. There are many eloquent and direct African-American preachers — no AI needed. This one is ‘fired up’ for sure!
AG
EU
BERLINER ZEITUNG
machine-translation
“This is the price of our dependence”: Ursula von der Leyen’s U-turn in Iran policy
The Commission President has announced measures to combat soaring energy prices. Her approach has drawn sharp criticism in Parliament.
Irrelevant. Tariffs have gone way up as the article plainly states. And it’s not only the insurance. Shippers don’t want to lose these hulls because of the expense and lag time before they can be replaced.
Anthony Martin
“Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world’s oil reserves. We’re going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves. This is China’s nightmare. This is a good investment,” he said. Lindsey Graham/People Magazine)
An interesting interviews with political scientist Robert Pape on Basically Iran has a strategy, the US doesn’t one. And escalation is a trap for the US. Also, airpower, alone, hasn’t worked with regime change from Kittty Hill.
Not only aren’t oil, gas, & urea going out of the Straits of Hormuz; Iran’s naval blockade is mpacting the importation of food to the Gulf States. With no bread on the table, will local populations tend get antsy. Supper or US troops? Take your pick. Note: Graham in another hissy fit, threatened the members of the GCC.
“Man up or else!”
JohnH
What’s driving me nuts is that so many US commentators have picked up and still repeat some version of Bibi’s insane appeal to Iranians: ““In the coming days, we will strike thousands of targets of the terrorist regime,” Netanyahu said, adding that the operation aimed to enable “the brave people of Iran to free themselves from the chains of tyranny.”
As if killing 170 schoo girls in Minab would encourage Iranians to rise up against their “terrorist regime.” I mean, isn’t wanton US and Israeli death and destruction inherently more attractive than putting up with some bad things done by your own leaders?
Of course, these pro-Zionist commentators make no mention of the widely known US/Israeli genocide in Gaza and unconscionable brutality throughout the Middle East. They can only peddle the BS that liberation from the Mullahs is self-evidently better and profess dismay that Iranians haven’t seized the opportunity!!!
And yet such nonsense must have some resonance among parts of the electorate, else why would they be peddling such balderdash?
Acacia
Yes, I gather it resonates because the electorate has been relentlessly propagandized about how horrible and oppressive the Iranian “regime” must be.
You hear in being played back whenever “liberals” talk about Iran. Just as it has been with Russia, there is the obligatory boilerplate prologue about how terrible and dictatorial the Ayatollah was — e.g., “I won’t miss him” — before some head nodding that “liberation” would be a good thing. The propaganda has foamed the runway for the idea that regime change = liberation. Never mind that things didn’t work out that way in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc.
Liberal criticism then turns to Trump, who is not being questioned for a war of aggression, but only because he’s doing a bad job of it.
Ann
Hasty redeployment of US missiles from South Korea to Middle East leaves Seoul rattled
The UN Security Council has approved a resolution drafted by Bahrain on the Middle East conflict that condemns Iran but omits any mention of attacks by the US and Israel, a TASS correspondent reports.
Thirteen of the 15 members of the Security Council voted in favor of the document, while Russia and China abstained.
AndrewJ
Wow. That’s a plot point. They’re volunteering to be made an example of by Iran. Why? Do they feel the Americans can win? Or, did they wake up to a horse’s head in bed? Are the Americans pulling the chain, or is it someone else? Is this theater by the monarchy so when they cut losses and run, they’ve licked the right hands?
Forgive the excessive metaphors…
AG
Little surprise (except Pakistan I guess but there are certainly behind-the-scene reasons.)
SC currently is composed of 15 members:
Five permanent members: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and ten non-permanent members elected for two-year terms by the General Assembly (with end of term year):
…Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, told CNBC on Tuesday…
…Shipping intelligence data provider Kpler estimates around 12 million barrels of crude oil to have passed through the strait since the war started. “Given that China has been the primary buyer of Iranian crude in recent years, a significant share of these barrels could ultimately head there,”…
…Kharg island terminal, located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran, has long been the country’s primary oil export facility, handling around 90% of its crude exports before tankers travel through the Strait of Hormuz…
…Now, Iran has also resumed loading tankers at the Jask oil and gas terminal along the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait of Hormuz, which could add additional capacity to crude shipments…
…Now, Iran has also resumed loading tankers at the Jask oil and gas terminal along the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait of Hormuz, which could add additional capacity to crude shipments….
…Madani said. “It has good domestic propaganda value, but not much in terms of a logistical advantage.
—
In other tanker news, 2 more are on fire, this time in Iraqi waters.
Iraqi oil ports halt operations after tanker attack – official
Iraq’s oil ports have completely stopped operations while commercial ports continue to operate after an attack on a fuel tanker, an Iraqi official has said.
Farhan Al-Fartousi, the head of Iraq’s General Company for Ports, also told Al-Iraqiya News that one crew member was killed and 38 had been rescued, according to state news agency INA. He said a search for the missing was continuing.
Iraqi port security officials has said, as reported earlier, that two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were in flames after being attacked by Iranian boats laden with explosives.
Al-Fartousi said a tanker loaded with petroleum products was in the process of loading when it was involved in an “incident”, the INA report said, also saying:
He added that “one of the smaller tankers involved flies the Maltese flag” noting that the vessel was hit by an explosion, though it remains unclear whether it was a direct strike or a waterborne improvised explosive device (suicide boat).
Al-Fartousi said the tankers were about 30 miles (48km) off the Iraqi coast.
The Iraqi government’s media cell has been quoted as telling INA that “two tankers were subject to sabotage”.
The leaders of the G7 group of nations – the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France – agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Persian Gulf, said a statement from the G7 Presidency on Wednesday.
The statement was issued after French President Emmanuel Macron had convened a call with G7 leaders to discuss the US-Israeli war on Iran and its impact on rising energy prices.
“In this regard, a working group has been set up to explore the possibility of escorting ships when the right security conditions are in place, and this will also come along with approaches made to shipping companies, transport companies and insurers,” said the statement.
OMG, a working group to examine the possibility! That’ll fix it!
—–
On the Hormuz specific topic, propaganda videos (repeats from January and last year) doing the rounds again of the Iranian underwater missile base and (tbh pretty badass looking) underground speedboat bases
Acacia
tbh pretty badass looking
That’s not an exaggeration!
Jason Boxman
A total of 13 ships have been attacked in and around the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman between 28 February and 11 March, UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported yesterday.
Overnight, off the coast of Iraq, a further two ships were struck near the port of Umm Qasr, near the city of Basra. The attack killed one person and injured 38 others, the head of the General Company for Iraqi ports said.
And just a moment ago, the UKMTO announced another incident north of Jebel Ali, UAE, writing that “the Master has reported the container ship was struck by unknown projectile causing a small fire onboard.”
A full damage assessment has been “impaired by darkness”, it adds.
Nuggets in passing. I plan to abstain from my news addiction for the rest of the day. Thanks for your continuing work Yves and peace and love to everyone.
1. 2 Container ships & 1 Bulk Carrier were targeted overnight in the strait of Hormuz. ‐ UKMTO
Story appeared all over, but above x/nitter has maps with ship locations. One appears to be right in the strait.
I believe 1 is Thai, and that it’s causing some consternation in Yves’ neck of the woods
—-
2. Reports (no link as 2nd hand from Z***hedge twitter account): Japan, Germany to tap strategic reserves, IEA statement on reserves at 1pm GMT.
—-
3. This tweet thread is worth reading in full from Senator Chris Murphy.
https://nitter.net/ChrisMurphyCT/status/2031531835453309125#m
I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can’t defend this war in public.
I obviously can’t disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are…
….5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN . I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open.
Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable….
—–
4.Iran declares US-Israeli economic, banking interests in region are targets (AJ)
The IRGC releases a list of offices and infrastructure run by top US companies with Israeli links whose technology has been used for military applications.
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency released a list of offices and infrastructure run by top US companies with Israeli links whose technology has been used for military applications, describing them as “Iran’s new targets”, said Al Jazeera’s Maziar Motamedi, reporting from Tehran.
“As the scope of the regional war expands to infrastructure war, the scope of Iran’s legitimate targets expands,” the agency said.
The companies include Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia and Oracle, and the listed offices and infrastructure for cloud-based services are located in multiple Israeli cities, as well as in some Gulf countries, said Motamedi.
—-
5. Less important but it caught my ear: Wilkerson on Nima saying both Lindsay Graham and Pete Hegseth have widely known drinking problems and saying Graham looked drunk on TV!
Thanks BP! My us employer is on the list. No internal news yet about this. There are a number of infrastructure installation and offices in Haifa and Tel Aviv.
I left a comment in response to your question in yesterday’s post about how the Israeli colleagues have been doing. In short: situation has deteriorated significantly since Monday. Lots of calls yesterday from the shelters or leaving/missing calls.
BP thank you for all your contributions, hope to read you tomorrow.
Seconded! best wishes to all and appreciation for the insight
special thx to Yves! and NC posters
same here, thanks
p.s. “5. Less important but it caught my ear: Wilkerson on Nima saying both Lindsay Graham and Pete Hegseth have widely known drinking problems and saying Graham looked drunk on TV!”
Wonder what Michael Tracey would have to say re: kompromats regarding those two. Since with Epstein he stressed he never met anyone in the political circus who they had no “dirt” on.
Graham – I believe he has a constant premature ejaculation from decades pent-up Iran-war horniness. He has been dreaming of this war for so long that now he is releasing all sexual tensions. Can be confused with drunkeness.
agreed. Any way to audit how piggy Graham profiteers from war-mongering?
obv he’s not the only one, but he seems to get the most msm airtime
The Trump Administration did have a plan, one OK’d by that stable Genius Donald trump, the most Popular king to rule America in at least 200 years!
Here’s the plan.
1) Start War.
2) Win War decisively within 72 hours.
3) Jesus Christ returns to Earth.
4) Profit!!!
Late to thank you. Yes re #1, lead story now in the Bangkok Post: Thai cargo ship attacked near Strait of Hormuz
Never a need for thanks Yves. If anything, I’m grateful to have a sane space to share data points and thoughts. I sometimes worry I post too much :)
I’m also very grateful that NC has you as it’s Supreme Leader!
I thought Hegseth’s bouts with the bottle were well known?
Post all done. Please refresh your browser if you arrived before the time of this comment. I am returning to add some Links since they were light at launch due to my focus on getting this post in shape
Thank you. NC and it’s community, past and present is amazing.
Jeez, if there was ever a time to send a contribution to this site as thanks for this honest coverage of the war, it sure is now. Probably to harden your infrastructure from attacks, TPTB can’t have too much coherent and intelligent information getting out there.
Thanks for all your efforts.
‘Perhaps scholars of wars can correct me, but I cannot think of a case where reparations were paid other than when an enemy was completely subjugated, either via conquest or surrender.’
Of course it has not happened yet but the EU is working on the assumption that when the war in the Ukraine ends, that they will hit Russia up for hundreds of Euros in compensation for the Ukraine, that the Russian military budget be reduced, that the size of the Russian army be drastically reduced and that Putin and his top officials give themselves up for arrest so that they can be sent to the Hague for trial by judges that the UK has been training up. Does that count?
Putin would turn London into a Wisconsin Dells water park with a tsunami hypersonic.
Before the nationalism of the 19th century, European wars often ended in a negotiated settlement. Forts, cities, counties, cash, claims could all be traded, and not just one way either.
Of course these were very much cabinet wars, and the cabinets were led by monarchs who were related to each other. The monarchs acting as negotiators could also secure some concessions for themselves.
But that was then, things has changed a bit both in warfare and presumed relationships between rulers and ruled. Can’t just hand over citizens the same way as subjects were handed over when the land changed ruler, and you certainly can’t exchange money for territory anymore. Citizens don’t like when you sell other citizens.
An early update, courtesy reader resilc, confirming the decolonization issue:
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260311-israel-and-iran-exchange-strikes-as-missile-threats-escalate
Reinforcing the take, from my comment to BP in yesterday’s post:
Apologies for not hoisting that. I didn’t fully catch up on yesterday’s comments before having to crank up on today’s piece.
No need to apologize Yves you’re doing great!
I simply want to give you the high priase you deserve. I don’t know how you process all this information in your mind. I for one would be much more poorly informed if not for all your effort. And of course I don’t know where you get the energy to do this every day.
Thank you so much.
Randolph
Trump will promise Iran whatever it wants to end the war, then attack again a year or two later at Israel’s behest. The only way Iran can be secure is to obtain nuclear weapons or a make a military alliance with a nuclear power.
I agree. They need a MAD doctrine of sorts. I cannot see how they will sign up for yet another agreement that will be broken by the US a couple of years later. They need real “physical” guarantees.
However, since USrael started this war with the aim of denying Iran ANY security, it is difficult to see any clean way out of this.
Pulverize US bases, pulverize corporate entities and infrastructure related to US/IS MIC, keep the gulf closed until Arab Monarchies scream for relief and re-commit their Trump financial promises to Iran. Pound reparations out of the Gulf Princelings and force their realignment with missile coordinates.
This is the game plan, but others like Pakistan, also have agency, a very dynamic and dangerous situation.
And, incidentally, if Iran can hit US radars with the ease they’ve demonstrated, I’d say the arrays in Romania are toast of Putin’s domestic critics get their way.
There is another way, and the Iranians are doing it.
I’m afraid this is wishful thinking and I’m inclined to agree with HH & YuShan.
Yes, Iran is very cleverly doing all it can with the resources it has. Their ‘strategery’ puts Russia to shame. But Iran hasn’t yet inflicted meaningful damage on the US. Satellite, air, and ship-based recon is untouched. US offensive capacity is undamaged beyond the depletion of some stocks… and frankly I don’t think that matters as it’s becoming clear the US is too weak to take on China anyway.
Nor has Israel been chastened enough to curb its expansionist policies. The only ‘Western’ actors in this war who are suffering are the uniquely vulnerable gulf states.
Economic damage inflicted by Iran? Sure, but it’s hardly directed enough or intense enough to bring down US–or even Israeli–imperial ambitions. As things stand today, Iran will be attacked again in a few months or years.
HUH?
Iran has destroyed more than half of the THAAD radars that the US has globally. It has also taken out a device (I can’t recall the name) that conveys satellite info to sites in the region.
Iran has pulverized US bases across the region. See our post yesterday which includes a video from Richard Medhurst which shows successive photos of the same bases.
Iran has driven the US out of most if not all of its embassies in the region. It hit the embassy in Saudi Arabia.
Iran will drive the US substantially or entirely out of the Middle East militarily as a bare minimum outcome. This is a slower-moving Suez Crisis level end of dominance.
The argument here seems to be space based ISR has superseded terrestrial radar etc..
Totally over my pay grade, but as I understand it while we can target with space based ISR, we can’t defend with it as our missile defense systems come with their own integrated radars.
So, maybe the argument is we can’t defend ourselves but that can’t stop us from attacking, which argument seems to be as good as our stockpiles of munitions, which is to say not so good.
HH & YuShan’s point was that Iran needs to be able to attrite or deter its enemies offensive capabilities as those enemies are determined to keep attacking–tomorrow, in six months, etc. This has not been done yet and may be beyond Iran’s reach.
Depleting defensive missiles, some related radar sites, and some abandoned bases does not change this calculus. (Not for the US anyway, we have yet to see if Israel will suffer enough damage for their attitude to change).
If you see attacks on Iran taper off due to some loss of ability, then start celebrating, but not before then.
HUH? You really do not get this at all. Even Foreign Affairs and Bloomberg are acknowledging that the US is running out of OFFENSIVE weapons, particularly Tomahawks. And the loss of the THAAD systems means a big reduction in accuracy of what they use.
I won’t let through any more comments that show you are so out of touch with what is happening that you are misinforming readers. I do not have time to waste debunking CLEARLY inaccurate takes when I have provided extensive, sourced information daily to the contrary. It is a requirement in our Policies that you read a post in full before commenting. It is evident you are not doing so.
This reminds me of the scene at the end of Dune, where the Guild navigators, who are so used to reading the near future due to their spice addiction, can’t see what is going on around them.
The US is unable to protect its bases and allies all over the Middle East. The US was ALREADY losing the war in Ukraine. It has now even more abandoned Ukraine by no longer selling weapons to the Europeans to hand over to Ukraine.
As I will discuss tomorrow, Iran, as Alon Mizrahi has explained, has gone relatively easy on Israel so far but is wrecking its economy by hitting it often enough that people are in and out of shelters all day schools are closed so people cannot work. It seems the hard damage is mainly in Tel Aviv. Even so, many vids show lots of Iranian missiles getting through, unintercepted.
Not sure what you are basing your “destroyed more than half of the THAAD radars that the US has globally” on?
From what I see, damaged or destroyed are the Qatari APS-132 early warning system, one of two UAE TPY-2 radars, and a US Army TPY-2 radar in Jordan. Then a US Navy SATCOM ground terminal GSC-52 and some other one, not sure who owns.
Saudis were supposed to buy six TPY-2 radars, not sure the status but there are reports that one was damaged/destroyed.
This is what Larry Johnson and I believe also Richard Mechurst and Douglas Macgregor has said. As we see with the US shipping the supposedly South Korean THAAD to the Middle East. Ownership seems to be a mere formality.
South Korea does not own the THAAD (that used to be) deployed there. The controversy might have been reduced if they did own it–one of the main problems was that SK had no control over how it would be used and when.
I understand that and was remiss in not stating the point about the Saudi THAAD more clearly. Its value depends heavily on being used in connection with US operations in the region, not just Saudi defenses. I would not be surprised if it is integrated into American satellite surveillance or other US ISR. I would also not be surprised to find American contractors playing a big role in its operation. If either of those assumptions are correct, it is hard to regard it as an unimpaired Saudi asset, even if they technically do own it. America has a lot of informational liens on it.
If it’s true that Iran has pulverized U.S. bases in the region, how is it that U.S. and Israeli aircraft are still attacking Iran? I’m hoping that in a few days Iran will bring the hammer down on the bases in Israel itself and Jordan. Where else are U.S. and Israeli planes flying from? Al-Udeid?
Standoff weapons flown and refueled from bases further away, in particular Diego Garcia. Remember we flew in a ton of refueling aircraft.
Further to Yves point, US basing seems to be creeping further and further away from Iran, possibly indicating that the middle east bases are becoming too dangerous? From yesterday: Romania agrees to allow US to use its military bases for Iran missions
Romania is 2500km+ away from Iran.
It seems a bit wild how sensitive oil markets are right now. I didn’t see in the story above how an errant tweet from the energy secretary caused a huge drop in oil prices:
https://xcancel.com/annmarie/status/2031494808431480983
reminds me of pre-Covid (Jan. Feb) or summer 2008. the news was in the public domain on day x, but it took day x + y for the lemming panic to metastasize
The Commentariat is Cassandra
Cassandra told the truth and was not believed. That make our news outlets the opposite of Cassandras, they tell lies and get believed.
Unless you mean that sites like this one are Cassandras, which is sadly correct – telling the truth and being excluded from the conversation by the legacy outlets.
We are the commentariat that LF, a long time member, is referring to.
“We are the Commentariat.”
We need a T-shirt to that effect. ;) (Not an assignment)
Word.
That would be an amazing t-shirt for a fundraiser raiser.
Other statements could be, “lost in moderation” :)
Lol, that goes on the back.
Paging NC reader NN Cassandra…
restive,
You reminded me of a poem I read in high school more than half a century ago:
Cassandra by Robinson Jeffers
The mad girl with the staring eyes and long white fingers
Hooked in the stones of the wall,
The storm-wrack hair and screeching mouth: does it matter, Cassandra,
Whether the people believe
Your bitter fountain? Truly men hate the truth, they’d liefer
Meet a tiger on the road.
Therefore the poets honey their truth with lying; but religion-
Vendors and political men
Pour from the barrel, new lies on the old, and are praised for kindly
Wisdom. Poor bitch be wise.
No: you’ll still mumble in a corner a crust of truth, to men
And gods disgusting-you and I, Cassandra
I hope current Cassandras are spared her fate.
There must have been a lot of pressure by people like Scott Bessent behind the scenes to make oil go down so far and so fast. Blind Freddy could tell you that the situation has not only not gotten better but has gotten much worse. Shouldn’t be surprised here as the price of gold is so heavily rigged so why not the price of oil. But of course Trump’s friends are buying the dip as they know that the price will rebound like a coiled spring. It is only a matter of time.
It’s smart of them to wipe out retail speculators early if they can pull it off, as that is a way to keep people from piling on. Also they don’t want to let it be know that Iran really can control the oil price that easily, so it will be interesting to see how long they can keep it bottled up.
Yes, I expect the spring is coiling. And it probably only took a couple of the right people getting a verbal backstop from someone Fed related to get the shipping insurance racket back sort of on side.
But the illusions are degrading in the West: I’m deeply embubbled in meetings this week with UK and US top tier Elite Servitors and numerous, isolated facts of the ongoing catastrophe have penetrated, but narrative structure is so overwhelming they have no place to put the factoids that make sense.
As a NC addict, I obviously inhabit a profoundly different reality and try to suggest connections between these factoids to break their Hasbara superposition and make them coherent reality in a different matrix, but the values inversion required for that transition is too great. Blind Freddy can tell because he can’t see the video delusions we’ve been steeping in since the 70s!
Thanks. Didn’t realize I knew the lyrics well enough to sing along, but it seems I do. They should use Zappa as therapy to keep geriatric cognitive decline at bay.
Upvote for ’embubbled’.
I suspect part of it had been panic buying for any oil. WTI for example shot up in price. But it is far too late to replace the much heavier crudes from thr Middle East. So buy a load of WTI to replace Middle east oil and youll fund yourself with a lot of oil that no one needs.
Oil is a market to an extent. But only an extent. Existing supply lines and different content and quality of oil mean you can’t just buy one to replace another. At least not fully.
Given how openly hand-in-till team Trump has been, my first guess is market manipulation.
It will be interesting to see how long they can keep the bottle on Oil future prices as it looks like they are doing/trying now:
US weighs oil futures market action to combat price spikes, White House official says
refiners in China, Japan should be scooping up every futures contract that their risk managers will allow, particularly the long-dated ones
Can’t cover-up physical scarcity
Exactly! Assume that is happening already, and not just China and Japan. We’ll know when the Nov. futures start rising.
Can’t remember where I read this possibility, but….
If Treasury is contracting to sell to drive prices down, then they must buy to close positions before expiration and the triggering delivery date. They will lose money if they buy at a higher price than their original selling price. An “errant” tweet to temporarily drive the price down gives Treasury a quick opportunity to buy, closing its position and make a buck.
Result:
1. Contracting to sell initially pushes prices down; but negative news causes prices to start rising again
2. The tweet by energy sec causes big drop in prices, Treasury buys and closes positions, making profits
3. Ready to do it again…
In this corrupt administration, anything is possible.
oil prices already heading north again
https://oilprice.com/
Report: Justice Ministry’s Pardons Department not recommending pardon for Netanyahu
Chess pieces moving into place to remove Netanyahu
If that happens, any chance they hand him over to the Hague?
Or a crowd in Tehran? Or Gaza. Or Lebanon.
Probably not, Israel extradition laws requires the guilty who are sentenced in Israel to serve their full term there prior to extradition I believe
Non-kinetic warfare:
Max Blumenthal yesterday: The ADL is very upset that “operation epstein’s fury” has gone viral. I’m attaching a screenshot of my tweet to prove I was the first to coin this and I’d like credit please.
Iran has dropped a third Lego movie short and a video cutting back and forth between a fighter jet and a little girl with a pink backpack off to school, and the aftermath. Russia could learn something from Iran’s propaganda.
Many on X have commented on a perceived huge drop in pro-Israel bots, and speculated about a connection to the reported destruction of an Israel propaganda site (unit 8200).
Please provide a link to that video if you see my reply. This sounds reminiscent of the famed Daisy commercial even though supposedly shown only once, that is credited with helping sink the Goldwater campaign.
Lego video link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wo7e2OjyEBo
regarding footnote number two, i think the usa wants iran to do this- bring the world economy to its knees.
why? because the usa thinks it can withstand this better than china. larry johnston points out that the usa is one of the best positioned nations for the upcoming chaos.
sillies, thinking that the usa is interested in prosperity. it isn’t. it cares about power, and all this idealistic talk about things like prosperity, clean energy, equality, etc is all just feel-good yada yada.
so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the usa goes on major worldwide break everything tour as a way to stave off the rise of eurasia/prevent iran from receiving reparations.
to oversimplify, it’s going something like this:
iran- “we’ll wreck the middle east and the global economy!”
usa- “bring it. this hurts china and friends more than us.”
meanwhile, the usa is probably telling friends/allies behind closed doors that iran is destroying outdated interceptor/radar tech and military bases no longer needed. the usa is shifting from ground-based systems that do not work to space-based systems that do not work. meanwhile, what’s left for the bases to protect when everything is on fire?
This is abject nonsense. The key actor here is not “the US”. It is Trump. What little Trump has of a reputation is going down in an historical conflagration. He will outdo Herbert Hoover, who actually was a hugely respected figure due to his humanitarian work after the Great War, which saved a huge number of lives. He literally fed millions. The Republicans will suffer a bloodbath in the midterms.
And did you read the post?!?! Semiconductors are close to the front of the line of oil scarcity casualties due to sulphur from oil being a critical input to sulphuric acid, which is used to etch chips. Remember what chip scarcity did to the auto biz in Covid? And that was due not to a loss of output, which is what would happen here, but auto companies whipsawing themselves by cutting orders, which were more than taken up by higher demand from Covid-stay-at-homes for consumer electronics, and then the auto companies could not readily get their order filled when demand for cars picked back up.
So multiply the impact, since we are not talking as supply chain diversion but actual and potentially durable loss of output, and consider the impact on AI valuations, which are what has been propping up the stock market, plus their nutty capex spend provided literally half of GDP growth in 2025.
This embarrassing CT. I hate to come down on a reader like this but I won’t tolerate comments that degrade the site like this. Read the post and think things through, FFS.
Arnaud had a tweet last night showing a huge jump in Chinese chip exports too.
That was before the war started, the first two months of 2026. Data came out after war started. I am not sure what point you are trying to make, as in I do not see the connection to this war.
Regarding sulfuric acid for semiconductors, that market is extremely tiny (very specialized high purity grades) compared to global production. IIRC, there are about 80 acid plants in the US (if you include refiners regeneration plants). I think there are two of those 80 that can make the purity required for semiconductors.
As a side note, if oil demand declines due to vehicle electrification, where will the sulfuric acid come from? About 2/3 of the sulfur needed for acid comes from petroleum, if memory serves.
Thanks. One site was banging on about the absolute importance of sulfuric acid and I saw it was critical for chip etching as opposed to tracking down its main uses. My bad. But I think it is used for all sorts of cleaning in electronic/electric components manufacture.
I must confess I should have gone back to Tindale for his detail on semiconductors in particular as opposed to grabbing on to something I saw in the last couple of days. The issue is much more LNG supplies than petroleum inputs. Should have checked.
This is what he wrote:
https://ctindale.substack.com/p/systemic-risk-a-12-order-cascading
With my pinstriped labcoat on (chemist and VC), sulphuric acid is essential to the manufacture of just about everything:
– it is a strong acid for working with materials of all stripes and stages, from ore to finished product, and for providing acid conditions in chemical engineering, e.g. for catalysis.
– it is a strong oxidant for synthesising chemicals where you need to change oxidation state, either of the product at interim or final steps or of the other reagents (i.e. generating an active reagent in situ).
– it is the starting material for various sulphur-containing functional groups that are important in synthetic organic chemistry, either for their properties in the final product or their properties at interim steps (protecting groups, leaving groups etc.).
Without sulphuric acid, industrial life stops. Sulphuric acid production depends both on petrochemical energy and on sourcing sulphur from oil and gas refining.
For that matter, hydrochloric and nitric acid are equally fundamental, as is caustic soda (sodium hydroxide, a base). The nitric acid supply chain is linked to ammonia production which is dependent on natural gas production. Nitric acid has similar uses, bit different in specifics, to sulphuric acid.
Provided you have energy and equipment (assume a tin opener), hydrochloric acid and sodium hydroxide can be had from the electrolysis of brine and are less directly affected by oil and gas market disruption. They are not oxidising and are not such versatile sources of functional groups in synthesis but still very important in creating appropriate reaction conditions.
Thank you!!!
That is way more important than what I was nattering about. Appreciate being corrected. Want to get this right going forward
Rereading my comment, it don’t want anyone to think caustic soda and chlorine (sourced from HCl) are not equal important in modern life. Chlorine is a vital reagent in bulk chemical synthesis. Chlorination of hydrocarbons is often the starting step to their nitration or sulphonation etc or to their polymerisation because chlorine is an excellent leaving group.
And caustic soda is essential for all the chemistry that requires basic conditions or the addition of oxygen-bonded groups to make ketones, aldehydes, ethers etc.
I am a small almond farmer in the Calif. Central Valley. Highly concentrated H2SO4 is used by some farmers, running on wells, to break down calcium carbonate that accrues in the ground water and is detrimental to the trees. I use approx. 3,000 gallons of this acid–much more concentrated than common ‘battery acid’–to the tune of $5,000 per year. The company that supplies the acid is doing gangbusters; covid hurt their business so I can’t imagine what a shortage will do.
I’ve worked on chemical refineries in Teeside that used sulphuric acid for something or other in the process.
I’ve also worked in a plant that makes artificial vitiman C in Scotland (and apparently the only place in the world that does so outside of China) and it also used aulphuric acid in the process.
Thanks for the link. I think Tindale and Johnson have both identified risks but don’t understand the details of trade flows and technology enough to define well the knock-on effects.
Copper: globally, the industry is a net exporter of sulfuric acid, so I can’t see where this analysis comes from. There may be a mine here and there that imports, but overall effect would be small.
Polyesters: would depend on which refiners get oil. If Iran is still shipping to China (#1 or #2 producer of para-xylene) no problem. With other chemicals, too, would really depends on who gets the oil since individual refiners produce chemicals vs fuels to different extents.
Propylene: Similar to para-xylene, but also mitigated somewhat by a not insignificant trade of propane from the US to China and naphtha from US to Asian crackers.
Urea: Saudi Arabia accounts for about 15% of global exports, but is the only significant gulf exporter (and may be able to ship from ports on the west rather than through the Straits of Hormuz). As a lot of nitrogen applied to farmland gets wasted anyway, if price spikes/availability gets limited, farms can switch to delayed-release alternatives. So food is still available, but gets more expensive.
Energy: Overall, if LNG from Gulf gets disrupted, there will be local shocks for sure (especially if the EU limits supply from Russia), but expect China and India to switch back to dormant coal plants.
My two cents.
With regards to sulfur, worldwide 90%+ is being used to make sulfuric acid. And of that about 1/2 to 2/3 is used to make fertilizer.
So it should be up there with urea seeing that the loss of 40%+ of the world wide sulfur supply means a 20% to 25% drop in available phosphate+ and ammonium fertilizers.
Before noting this, I will point out that the logistics/transport chain is much more high cost (truck/train vs bulk in ocean-going ships), but there are literal mountains of elemental sulfur piled up in Alberta as a by-product of tar sands oil production. Suncor and others have struggled to market it all. I suppose this would be a source for sulfur, but shipping it would definitely be more costly.
This is a clear test of strength between Trump’s personality cult and the interests of the U.S. plutocracy. I’m guessing that the plutocracy will remove Trump by whatever means is most efficient.
But does anyone have a way out of this mess? Whoever replaces Trump then owns the problem.
Wouldn’t it have to be JD Vance as he is next in line of succession? Still, since the outbreak of this war, he has done a great imitation of the invisible man.
Agree that Vance seems to be positioning himself as the guy with the clean hands on this. Dangerous game though — who can he trust? Peter Thiel?
I was under the impression he is Thiel’s puppet.
if i were him i would use the excuse of usha’s latest pregnancy and retire. getting handed the u.s. presidency right now is like winning a live tiger in a raffle.
I was listening to the March 6 edition of ‘Radio War Nerd’ with Mark Ames & John Dolan and Dolan pointed out that for decades the US has had powerful politicians that really and truly HATED Iran but that none of them were stupid enough to actually try to defeat it in a real war. So, I think you’re right, Yves, I think Trump and Bibi’s folly will become the US’s albatross, no matter who’s in charge.
Thanks for your diligence on this. I’d be lost on this subject without NC!
This right here. The US political elite finally found someone dumb enough to go for this. They’ve been waiting for decades to find their patsy, and it’s trump.
There’s so VERY LITTLE oppostition in congress.
As I recall, chip etching is done with hydrofluoric acid aka HF.
Very nasty stuff, as it etches glass.
Sulphuric acid is used for cleaning in semiconductor precessing, not for etching.
Nonsense yes, but give a little credit for the “the usa is shifting from ground-based systems that do not work to space-based systems that do not work” bit. I, at least, got a chuckle from it.
Too bad they can’t harness gastric acid, I’m sure there are millions like me who have more than they can use thanks to trump and the zionist lapdogs in the US.
Marandi’s words ring very true to me and sound like the only viable objective for Iran’s long-term survival. A far cry from what Mercouris suggest they do, take the first off-ramp Trump gives them. So far, he’s been right about everything.
I’ve also listened to John Helmer on Nima’s show. He’s claiming the call Trump made to Putin is evidence Russia will ‘betray’ Iran in exchange for Trump facilitating an end to the Ukraine war and ease of sanctions. This strikes me as unbelievable for several reasons. Strategically, it would be an enormous strategic blunder to reopen unreliable trade with Europe in betrayal of long-term alliances in Asia. They know that the US is non-agreement capable and any promise from the US is not worth anything. Also, Europe has agency. Ukraine has agency. You have to look at what Russia is doing and, so far, there is no indication that they are putting any pressure on Iran.
More realistically, Russia is being strategically ambiguous. They are doing to Trump what Trump did to them. Promising they will stop helping Iran any minute now just like Trump has done with Ukraine.
I watched Diesen’s programme last night and find Marandi interesting because it is rare to hear the Iranian perspective. However, while Iran has a pretty strong hand, it is delusional to think that Iran can demand much from the US.
There is also the problem that while they can completely destroy the Gulf states if they want, or even just close the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, this mostly hit countries other than the US and Israel. And then Iran will get blamed, not the countries that started this. The world would unite against Iran, including countries that are now neutral. I think that is where the real limits are to the power that Iran has in this.
Given that Iran’s oil depos and installations are the ones being hit first (and desalination plant), the argument that Marandi/Iran makes, that the GCC oil installations serve US interests, I see his case clear. Also, the question is, why the world refuses to take a stance against Israel (already in the docks at ICJ/ICC) and the US as the agressors, and villify Iran? From what I have seen in Lavrov’s reply to GCC ambassadors, there is little chance for Iran to become isolated. And just look at the Spain’s PM and his government…
The Dune principle will apply: whoum has the power to destroy a thing is in control. As Marandi said aptly, if GCC oil and gas infrastructure is gone, their countries are gone. Less so with Iran.
And if the world is willing to indulge Trump and the US and Israel in this adventure, I think the world deserves a huge economic implosion, including you China.
I think many/most (especially outside the West) would agree that US and Israel are the aggressors. However, once USrael stop their bombing campaign in an attempt to end it (because they have run out of interceptors) and Iran still keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed to extract concessions, then most will still blame Iran, because by keeping Hormuz closed Iran is imposing costs on them and they would argue that since USrael have already stopped bombing, it is now Iran’s fault.
Iran can say that as long as US sanctions are in place and the world abides by them, the straits will be closed. Those sanctions are also a type of war after all, and they are illegal, not endorsed by the UN.
An Iranian enforced embargo seems like the following step to the US hoisting anchor and limping into the sunset. That “not one drop” sounds like a pillar of Iranian strategy.
Today I learned that there is a skin care business with the name Vichy. I mean, how apt is it to name a company after a government famous for saving its skin?
I mention this because I am coming to see most European states, and let’s not forget the EU, as attractions in a veritable Vichy theme park. I’m as susceptible to nostalgia as the next dingus (well, maybe not quite as much), but sheesh, isn’t there a limit?
Jeffrey Sachs, whom Britain and the U.S. blocked from addressing the Security Council, approached the Danish UN ambassador after her Iran tirade that, oopsie, forget to mention Iran was kinda, you know, sneak-attacked by the U.S. and Israel? She turned on her heels and marched off. Maybe they should rename it the Golding Chamber. They’ve gone feral.
It will be just like that with the GCCers. It’s all Iran’s fault. Yesterday I heard Norman Finkelstein quote (loosely, it seems) Mark Twain: “After God created sheep He realized that humans were superfluous.”
It’s hard not to see the economic damage, which sadly will affect the global majority as well, as blowback from the Gaza genocide. Europeans didn’t speak out against Israel and the U.S.—some assisted them—which led those goodly gentlemen and ladies to conclude that a war against Iran would meet no opposition but silence and fidgeting. Indeed, the Euros went that one better. They issued condemnations—of Iran. Vichy may be too kind.
Vichy is a spa; it goes back to Roman times and the waters are supposed to have healing properties. The irony (which I suppose maybe isn’t quite the right word) is that that’s where Laval decided to set up the collaborationist government–the government named itself after the skin-savers, not the other way ’round.
Kinda ironic given the history of the term “Copenhagening,” coined after British sneak attack on the Danish fleet when it appeared Denmark might ally with Napoleon. Used to be considered a good thing by Anglo Saxons, too–until Pearl Harbor.
Yves had a pretty detailed comment yesterday on Helmers advancing Putin Derangement Syndrome.
I like his analytical focus, but on Putin he’s got his thumb on the scale without knowing it.
He’s always worth listening to or reading, but he always takes the pessimist’s view, regardless of whether it makes sense at a macro level. Countries make suicidal decisions all the time (cf India) so anything is possible but Putin’s Russia has consistently demonstrated strategic long-term policy.
“Putin’s Russia has consistently demonstrated strategic long-term policy.”
If you take the long view of Putin’s career, is this really true? Putin is the man went through two rounds of Minsk, who was dazzled by the likes of Angela Merkel (!!!) into letting a trapped Ukrainian army retreat from Crimea. Putin desperately wanted to be part of the neoliberal west, had more or less drunk the economic koolaid and would’ve been happy to let the same corrosive forces that destroyed the west do the same to what was left of his country if only they’d throw him a bone and say something like “We promise not to put missiles in Ukraine.”
I think Helmer is right when he describes Putin as a balancer of domestic interests, not a great political visionary. The economic improvement in Russia during his reign is to his credit, but it also should’ve been expected after the capital destruction that occurred following the Soviet Union’s fall and the depression of the 1990s. Russia after all remained a huge country with a big army, an educated population, and a lot of resources.
Putin’s extremely cautious and conservative. Frankly, I think he’s been a vacillating ruler. The Soviets, by comparison, acted much more decisively when challenged in their sphere of influence. It was foolish for Putin not to finish off Ukraine when Russia seized Crimea–for god’s sake half of Ukraine’s army had defected!
Not a great, political visionary, but increasingly looking like the, ingenious, pragmatic last man standing.
Not a Bismarck, maybe more Richelieu, though I’m struggling for an analogue.
Well, hindsight is 20/20. The way he captured Crimea was really smart. And if you capture such a big prize without losses, I can understand that he chose to try to not antagonise the West too much after that.
It has also surprised me how persistently suicidal Europe (and to a lesser extend US) have behaved in the Ukraine war, so I cannot really blame him for not anticipating that. If his softer more reasonable approach had worked, it would have saved so many lives and treasure on both sides. And it almost worked (see Istanbul). So again I cannot blame him for trying.
Now the war is a catastrophe for both sides. Russia will win, but at an enormous cost. We can only speculate how it would have gone with a more hard line approach.
The capture of Europe started after the 2003 Iraqi invasion. Col Wilkerson, who was in the thick of things then, has described the process several times. A generation later, the fruits of that expensive effort has paid back handsome returns… Now the US oil/gas patch is fully subsidized by the EU.
“The way he captured Crimea was really smart.”
You mean by not leaving when we asked him to?
“Russia will win, but at an enormous cost.”
To whom? Yes, a tremendous amount of historic Russia is being destroyed by Russia as it wipes the NATO proxy out of Ukraine. But in so doing Russia has solidified its autarky which should nicely insulate it from the economic anarchy we’re imposing on the Empire and its satrapies with our abject stupidity in both Ukraine and the Persian Gulf.
Russia was not ready to militarily attack an entrenched and ground strong Ukraine armed forces when Russia allowed Crimea to decide its own fate. Putin is cautious; especially with other peoples lives.
If one follows the proposition that Russia pursues its interests, then helping Trump with an offramp is NOT in Russia’s interests. It is in Russia’s interest to see the decolonization of Western Asia – opening space for BRICS. It is in Russia’s interest to see India rewarded for its betrayal. It is in Russia’s interest to see the Western economies collapse. It is so much in Russia’s interest to have Iran destroy/attrit NATO – and much harder than Russia has been willing – I would have hit radars in Germany already. It is in Russia’s interest not to have NATO radar looking over the Caucasus. It is in Russia’s interest to see Japan and S Korea hurt and decolonized. Where will Taiwan get oil (as a province of China, they would be able to access its strategic reserves and oil supplies)? Chinese EV exports are going to turbo.
It is not in Russia’s interest to see damage to Southeast Asia – that is the only countervailing interest I can come up with.
I think Mercouris has an internal Overton window that he just hit – he certainly knows Clausewitz.
This. It is in Russia’s interest to be the global swing producer of oil and gas. This is historically Saudi Arabia’s role in oil thanks to its famous (these days, allegedly mythical) space capacity and perhaps Qatar’s in gas. Now Russia has space capacity (because sanctions). Its political terns of trade are improved with everybody, West and BRICS, while the Gulf is shut. Why would Russia pull the rug on Iran?
Just possibly, if Russia gets what it wants in the Ukraine. But it will get that through attrition anyway. Maybe Iran has just prolonged the war in the Ukraine because Russia will take a maximalist stance on security architecture for both Europe and West and Central Asia…?
The Saudis export nearly 2x as much as Russia, which has now ALSO committed a lot of its exports to China. So this can’t happen. It does not have enough discretionary exports.
My thinking was that the swing role is about who has headroom to produce more when demand spikes, rather than who is the biggest producer.
Saudi has negative headroom right now, all of its capacity is stoppered up in the Gulf and the pipeline to the Red Sea is a thin straw with which to meet its obligations. Until Saudi builds pipelines or the Gulf opens, either Russia or Venezuela has the biggest spare capacity.
I admit I don’t know to what extent Russia has retargeted the oil away from its pipelines to Europe to China and India. Ditto gas.
It’s important to know how much discretionary leverage Iran’s actions are creating for Russia, if any. You’re sceptical so I’ll try to find info to make a better case.
Oh, I don’t disagree that Russia can have an impact. But I doubt they have that much leeway, particularly if Russia has made significant commitments to China in the expectation that this war was coming.
It seems to me that Helmer tends to choose the least sympathetic interpretation of Putin’s actions that the evidence will support. I find it helpful to keep this in mind when reading or listening.
Evidence is all the mobilization for war happening everywhere.
At a personal level, I appreciate Putin taking Trump’s call. Putin has met with Trump many times, and while a telephone call (or was it a videocall?) offers limited data, it would give Putin some basis to assess just how over the edge Trump is. When I think about the risks of limited or full-blown nuclear war, I’m hoping Putin and Xi are the sane ones, trying to figure out how to put down two rabid dogs without us all getting bit.
And considering that bad things tend to happen to Russia and potentially Putin when Putin is on the phone with Trump, I’ll offer the Russian President an additional word of thanks.
Alleged Iranian red lines to even return to the negotiation table. Can’t find the original article reference, but at the bare minimum reasonable to assume that Iran will want environmental clean-up costs from Israel
https://www.rt.com/news/634333-us-israel-iran-war-live-updates/
https://english.almayadeen.net/
Except they never pay for anything, the US taxpayers do.
And the end of that should be the very first thing the replacement team does after midterms.
Iran’s primary demand should be that International Law is applied to Israel and that Israel abides by it.
Most everything else follows. If Israel was put back in its box and “Greater Israel” was off the table this kind of catastrophe would never be repeated.
Where we are now is all about Israeli expansionism.
The UN has confirmed that all Israeli presence in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem is illegal and the same is true for Lebanon and Syria.
They must withdraw all troops from these areas to within the ‘67 borders and commit to returning all settlers within a reasonable time frame and they must recognise these borders in their constitution and by treaty.
When these things are done Hormuz will be opened.
It’s the two state solution. It’s the stated policy of almost every country bar the US and Israel. The world has wanted a solution to the Palestine situation for ever but has faced intransigence from those two countries. Now the RoW has skin in the game. Most countries are seeing rising prices and will suffer immeasurably more if this goes on much longer. They can apply much pressure on Trump.
Who loses? No one I can see except Israel which loses the ability to expand which it never legally had. It gains peace, normal life and commerce and Abraham Accords all round, including with Iran.
Trump could claim to have brought peace to the Middle East. Hell, give him the prize.
Is it too much to hope that Iran is thinking along these lines?
Israel would probably go the Samson option rather than accede to this.
Maybe. But Iran would not be destroyed. Its response would be justified and devastating.
The one state solution?
The house always wins.
> From The Hill in Pentagon burned through $5.6B in munitions in first 2 days of Iran war
From “Macro & Cheese – Michael Hudson: Is the US a Failed State?” July 20, 2023.
This isn’t the version I remember that was told more like a parable but it’s the best I could find.
>>>How long will they have to choke on their bigotry with respect to Iran’s military prowess
funny how Thermopylae and Alexander the Great (versus lame-o Darius) is common knowledge, but Crassus and Julian (360’s AD) are less well-knowm, lol
You forgot Valerian, aka the Footstool.
And Gordian the Third.
Battles such as Carrhae, Edessa, Misiche, and Barbalissos where stupendously crushing defeats for the Romans — enormous armies mobilized to subdue Persia wiped out on the battlefield.
I liked Gore Vidal’s take on Julian the Apostate, who, in his view, was killed by his own Christian men rather than by the Persians…
Do you see a potential upside for US agibusiness if Brazil sees a shortage of urea/fertilizer impact on their next season of soyabeans/grains? Could this potentially push China back towards having to purchase from USA and release some of the pressures on USA farmers/agribusinesses? Is there potential to spin this as a win for Red state farmers?
Those Red-state farmers pay full retail for inputs: fuel, pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers. Some might have had the foresight to lock in such inputs in a pre-war sleepier time, but, as last years crop harvests and sales were hardly robust due to Tariffs, they might not have had the ready cash to do so.
I am skeptical that either Brazil or the US will have a great growing season. Weather being what it is becoming does not help.
Some old saw about all boats rising on a tide… this action by Team Trump,The Oxymorons, has knock on effects that are global. First up is hurt and chaos.
My take is that the US will hardly be in a position to push anyone to do anything- especially China.
We are becoming persona non grata, like a couple other nation-states: lets call that spade a spade: USrael— and Iran ! FFS, leave Cuba alone and throw them some resources, STAT.
my alloy-laden two cents
Decolonization. Hopeful? Maximalist? Perhaps. But I am reminded of the late Robert Fisk, who, in characterizing the desires of people in the region in which he spent his adult life, said that what they wanted was justice. It would be just if the tyrannies which the American military and American companies impose on the region had their scaffolding recalled; it would be just if the launch sites for near-constant American aggression were removed; it would be just if the Israelis decided to live in peace with their neighbors, or de-camp. This doesn’t mean it will happen, of course, but we are seeing significant steps in those directions.
Nuremburg has misinformed many people about the history of war. Reparations then were an anomaly. When countries lose wars, there is a price paid but it is in social upheaval. I wonder, given the distance, both in the physical sense and with respect to Americans understanding of and concern for Iranian life, what the fallout will look like should the U.S. decisively lose this war. Arguments have been made that the U.S. has not won a war, with the exceptions of Panama and Grenada, since the second world war, but Americans are insulted from the harshest impacts. The bombed-out buildings in our ghettoes are only indirect effects of imperial conflict in the sense that the resources which might have repaired them went towards bombing other buildings in distant nations.
The economic choke-points which the Iranian and Yemeni governments control make it so the U.S. government could have a harder time telling us to believe that they won and it’s all over. I’ve been partially hoping that, beyond attempting to relax market jitters, the Trump administration would loudly declare victory while quietly acknowledging defeat by abandoning both bases and monarchs. I’ve been more hopeful lately; I stand by my previous comment to the effect that these events could open up space for an actual green transition.
Yves and the commentariat are to be profusely thanked for all the careful coverage and treatment. This war has been even harder to parse than last June’s (anyone else remember the AI slop-fight between the parties with fake images of gigantic downed planes?), but, as always, naked capitalism has kept its eyes resolutely on the real and the material.
Marandi made clear that it didn’t matter to Iran who paid the reperations. It could be Israel (US indirectly), the GCC states, or Europe
I agree that is what he said but it is inconceivable that the US or Europe will pay reparations. It is a political and legal impossibility no matter how urgent the economic imperative. They will be extracted from the Gulf states.
The mechanism could be something like Europe pays $5 over spot for energy to GCC, and GCC pay that premium to Iran for something like 20 years
“Europe” is not going to agree to reparations. The EU won’t agree.
And more important, Iran would not want to take the money from income flows. Too long to get a payoff, too easy to be cheated.
They will want assets the Gulf states have now.
how about transit fees on ships through the Straits?
Hmm. Those reparations could be in the form of interest-free loans. And the contracts for reconstruction could be given to Gulf State countries like the Saudis to sweeten the pot. Of course this would be contingent on the end of sanctions so that the Iranian economy could generate the money to pay back these loans but I would not be surprised to see the Chinese coming in to do reconstruction work as well.
He also said Iran will start charging a toll for ships transiting Hormuz. Perhaps a reparations surcharge could be included till Iran is made whole for 47 years of sanctions, the US supported Iran-Iraq War, the 12-Day War and every other thing. For reasons, exemptions/refunds for states such as China?
I wonder in what currency the Iranian’s will levy the toll. Something other than USD?
I think this toll is linked to reparations. Denmark used to control passage through the Kattegut into the Baltic. A point of contention with various powers (Russia, Hanseatic league etc). I think Britain burnt Copenhagen because of it!
I believe that in the early 19th century carious parties paid a one-off indemnity to Denmark for toll-free passage. It would surprise me if the principle of a toll is proposed as the gambit, to be traded for reparations as a liquidated sum *from the other Gulf States*. The Gulf States can stop paying the USA for weapons so they should have some cash to spare!
I think it is a bargaining position for negotiation with the gulf monarchies. They would quantify any compensation dollars in terms of number of F35s they won’t have to buy.
Just saw your comment – snap!
“Decolonialisation” makes a good sound-bite for the Iranians, but I wouldn’t get too excited about it. The idea that places like Dubai or Bahrein won’t be subject to foreign influence any more for the first time in recorded history seems a trifle ambitious.
When I was young (possibly you also) we called it the Persian Gulf, and there’s no doubt that the Iranians want their Gulf back. To the extent that the US retreats (and to some extent even if it doesn’t), the Iranians will have the effective power of life and death over their neighbours, since they can destroy their economies and their cities without their neighbours have any protection or any means to reply. If that’s decolonialisation, it’s a very special type.
In any event, if the US and the West generally is forced out there will be two major consequences. One will be internal conflict, especially in countries like Bahrein which have a Shia majority (though no Sunni will accept that.) The other will be a new scramble for influence in the region, and attempts by these small weak states to find new allies and protectors. and by states such as China, India and Russia to expand their influence. I suspect we are only at the beginning of a long period of instability and conflict in the region.
Long period of instability and conflict…I don’t see any other conclusion either. The balances of power if you will, are shifting. No empire in history goes quietly, and the US gets more reckless and desperate
The (artificial) borders and states of the region are largely a creation of western imperialism. Can they survive a shakeup? Would states like China (or Russia) have interests in maintaining these artificial states? Could the map be totally redrawn?
Less than you might think. Bahrein, for example, is very obviously an island when you see it, and most of the other Emirates are essentially based on millennia-old trading hubs. I don’t think there are any real territorial disputes between them. And there’s an important difference between lines on a map and cultural and religious communities. Most later divisions of the region were based on Ottoman provinces, which were themselves a matter of administrative convenience to Istanbul. The colonial territories that succeeded them between the wars were also essentially administrative: it was only later that nationalists tried to turn them into countries. There is a Syrian cultural identity for example (and has been for a long time) but it’s not necessarily attached to the detail of lines on a map.
And colonization takes more forms than occupying land.
It certainly is de-Westernization, which is, indeed, special. Time may tell whether it is superior, but the bar is pretty low in The Levant. Also, by the measure of Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya… it’s the continuation of a very long period of instability and conflict, with an opportunity to bring it to a close.
Reparations could include Iranian (or Iranian-Russian-Chinese) bases on the Arabian Peninsula to make certain the US and West stay out. Absent on location monitoring it is guaranteed the US deep state (aka the state) will begin infiltration the day after the US retreats.
FWIW, reparations used to be fairly common consequence of wars before 20th century: reparations were such important part of French demands during Napoleonic Wars that at least one economic historian (Eugene White) argued that using reparations in gold and silver to shore up French national finances was an important part of French strategy at the time; there were also huge demands for reparations after the Franco-Prussian War, World War I, and the French defeat in 1940–just between France and Germany alone! In a sense, the relative absence of big reparations demands (at least those in cash) was the interesting feature of the end of World War 2.
Thanks, hk, that is important modern historical context. I stand corrected.
pretty wild that credentialed people just assume the war will end if Trump says so.
if Pearl Harbor your opponent, you get no say in when the war ends unless that side is on the ropes.
(Russo – Japan War v. Pacific WW2)
“I’ve been more hopeful lately; I stand by my previous comment to the effect that these events could open up space for an actual green transition. ”
If not a green transition, a dramatic reduction in throughput that would slow down our march to 4+ degrees C.
A good new Patrick Lawrence on the terrible dereliction by the US MSM.
https://consortiumnews.com/2026/03/10/patrick-lawrence-another-war-were-not-supposed-to-see/
Of course Trump’s attitude is that mere voters shouldn’t worry about what is happening with their dollars and national honor. After all he is God’s instrument after being spared at Butler. Doubtless this is the line Lindsey has been feeding him.
However since everything for Trump is about money–when not about his ego–then he does get that high gas prices will get their attention no matter how vigorous the rest is being hidden.
I’m reading a book about the Vietnam situation in the early 60s and JFK too tried to control the coverage but the editors back in NY allowed it to continue even though they may have agreed with his goals. Even so the JFK and LBJ “best and the brightest” created an even greater disaster than the current one (so far) and the public overall may have known less.
What book are you reading?
Kennedy’s Coup by Jack Cheevers
Chaos by James Gleick to get me into the spirit of the moment, and The Three Pillars of Zen by Philip Kapleau to make my peace with the great void. Oh, and Naked Capitalism obviously and with gratitude.
Regarding sending coordinates to Iran:
I wonder if the Iranians would notice if one instead of Gulf-locations sent them the coordinates to the EU commission, especially Ursula von der Leyen and Kaija Kallas, and the muppets in the EU parliament that banned import of Russian oil and gas, thereby impoverishing all of EU.
EU Commission
DD: 50.839496642 4.376331828
DMS 50°50’22.19″ N 4°22’34.79″ E
Geohash u1515x49xcjd2cuh
UTM 31U 596907.59281945 5632879.1250299
EU Parliament Strasbourg
DD: 48.597401 7.768825
DMS 48°35’50.64″ N 7°46’7.77″ E
Geohash u0ts2ych6spu
UTM 32U 409226.0636248 5383433.9223487
Newsflash: People were seen running and screaming as they fled the EU commission building in Brussels as well as the EU Parliament building in Strasbourg. In particular, Ursula von der Leyen was seen running down a Brussels boulevard shouting ‘Somebody save me. I’m too important to die.’
Developing story update: “Last time Ursual von der Leyen and Kaija Kallas were seen, they were bum-fighting in the corner under the Manneken Pis”.
That’s some news that would definitely made my day.
They obviously built those headquarters in the middle of civilian areas with the intention to use the innocent people there as human shields. Collateral damage is simply part of war.
The Tindale piece described mechanisms of rapid collapse. Climate change is the big dog but the timeframe is longer. Two musings:
:( Iran holds the key to western civilization. Decades of sanctions, assassinations of family, enormous oil reserves they can keep in the ground. Why would they give relief to the Great Satan? Is the Great Satan the US, oriented toward quarterly reports? But that empire is built on previous empires back to their crusading nemesis of the Catholic empire, built on capitalized trade over the last 500 years or so. But that was built on the shards of the Roman empire, dating back two or three millennia, fighting the Persians.
That is the Iranian timeframe, which we do not have the neurones to comprehend.
:? The sulfur to copper to electrical capacity chain reframed my thinking. AI and the data centers rely on them, but if the materiel ain’t available, then it would be a misallocation of capital to plan on facilities opening in five years. Further, presuming the goal is panopticon, it would be a misallocation of capital to let AI continue to be used as chatbot friends. Keep an eye out for crapification there. Further, since Wall Street is now an inverted pyramid based on the Nvidia/AI circle jerk, but the market is withdrawing funds, I’ll make a 50/50 prediction:
There will be a TARP-like bailout of the AI industry.
What will there be to bailout? The AI industry has obsolete hardware without the electric grid to run their models, which do not work (as in lower client costs). Will the fed try and goose the stockmarket back to the stratosphere? The auto industry has plants that could make cars that people want to buy. Other than just shoveling a trillion dollars into the pocket of Sam Altman for his private Island, what is there to bail out – they do not have a business model that will ever make money?
Regarding the IEA call for the release of reserves, I heard a fellow on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning (for my sins) question the RATE at which this can be operationalized — his point being to question the efficacy of the measure not so much as a function of the stock as the flow. I think he might have said something like 2 million barrels a day as the maximum? In any event, it gave me something else to consider.
(Former Goldman guy — pretty sure that his name is Carlyle)
Further to the argument by Craig Tindale, some news from Japan:
Mitsubishi Chemical Cuts Ethylene Production｜Strait of Hormuz Blockade Directly Hits Kashima Complex—Impacted Products, Companies, and Future Scenarios Explained
https://note.com/so_nandachem/n/n5babcb2784ab
Excerpts (Translated):
Establishment media still uncritical of Trump – despite most Americans being against the war (we are supposed to forget that, I guess).
Aljazeera: Focus is on Iranian escalation;
FT’ Martin Wolf: “There are lasting lessons about energy resilience to be learnt from this conflict.”
Gulf States (on Iran’s doorstep) continue to toe the US line. Bahrain has tabled a UN resolution demanding that Iran stop attacking them (and other Gulf States).
There’s surprisingly little backlash against Trump despite his having kicked-off this cluster-fuck. Some alt-media complains of Trump’s as Netanyahu’s puppy but mainstream media in US, Europe, Middle-East are still reporting like Iran is the problem (and always has been). Or, a focus on coping
Major bullshit from Trump is forgotten in a day or two:
Can Iran feel safe from Western meddling in the middle-east unless/until the Western establishment refuses to recognize the shameless mendacity and hubris of its leaders?
The establishment media was all aboard regime change in Iran so it’s too early to walk that back. It’s also still too early for those “I agree with the rightness of this war but not the way it is being prosecuted” Guardian-type opeds.
This is because 99% of the Democrats and 99% of the European governing class are all in favor of a regime-change war against Iran. They don’t like Trump, but he’s doing their dirty work for them, which is why they will only criticize tactics, vision, planning, etc. but never come out against the war per se.
Yeah, polls show very little support for the war, yet the US and vassal regimes, with support from the loyal oppositions, promote more war. And they call these regimes “democracies” and all that. Yeah right
Hypocrisy, lies and double-standards are so embedded in western culture, most can’t see past them
Hypocracies?
Trump is going full Biden with the “beheaded babies” nonsense, etc. The media have to be working overtime to make it seem like Everything Is Fine and that the war Is Proceeding According to Plan. The guy is another brain-damaged doofus, and one who was never better than a well-lawyered, crooked real estate nepo-baby to begin with. I don’t know how anyone exposed to his ramblings can think other than that the country is in the worst possible hands right now. No matter how Fox and WaPo and WSJ and CNN and the rest try to spin it. Caitlin Johnstone had an article last month, We Deserve Better War Propaganda, that sarcastically laments that the propaganda is so lame, as if they are purposely shoving unbelievable and incoherent crap in our faces to show how little they respect the American people and care about what the people think.
I have seen a montaj yesterday with ” Short term pain for long term gain” repeated at nauseam on the US TV channels.
That montage can be seen here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRrj9cqiLPg&t=2325s
Alex Christoforou 2 days ago, cued up to 38:45 (the very end)
EstablishmentEmpire mediaA classic example of New York Times spin technique:
N.B.: “killed dozens ” // “including children” // “part of an attack on an adjacent naval base”.
WTF? the gray lady provides cover and excuses for warmongering Zionists at home and abroad. Who wouldda thunk? Think of 7 million NYT PMC subscribers reading this rubbish and believing it. MSM is an echo chamber.
How Trump and His Advisers Miscalculated Iran’s Response to War NYT
To hell with the strait of Hormuz. Trump ought to “show some guts” and, by himself, without any protection, as a free man, walk down any street in the country, maybe somewhere in Queen, or on Third Ave. in Seattle. I’d like to see his guts, if he got any, that would be something to see.
Re: Mizrahi on US and Israel interests in the Iran War diverging. Yes. I don’t think US wants to reconstruct destroyed bases in Gulf. Probably just wants rapid exit from ME. Israel wants destruction of Iran, which it’s not going to get. May instead achieve its own destruction. Would Trump be okay with Israel self-immolation? Maybe…
Maybe I missed it but has this war been taken to the UN Security Council at all? Considering the fact that this war is nearly fortnight old and threatens to push the world into a global recession, you would think that it would have priority.
Yes, right at the outset. I recall a long, correctly aggrieved and well-crafted speech by the Iranian ambassador and the US ambassador with the ugliest scowl on his face imaginable. Sorry for not running it down but it did happen pretty pronto.
Recall that Lavrov’s dressing down of the Gulf foreign ministers was over a UN resolution they wanted to propose at a later UN discussion
From Aljazeera’s Live Feed (about 7 hours ago):
UN Security Council to vote on draft demanding halt to Iranian attacks
The UN Security Council will vote later today on a resolution introduced by Bahrain condemning Iran for its attacks on several Arab countries in the region.
The proposed resolution calls for an immediate end to Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, as well as an end to the use of proxy groups.
Odds are high that Russia will veto it or seek to amend it and get the US in a hissy. Lavrov already lectured the GCC ambassadors than any resolution needed to be proportional and tell the US and Israel to stop shooting. So they ignored him and went ahead.
Israel has been ignoring UN resolutions for decades. I don’t see any reason Iran couldn’t ignore one for a few more weeks, which is probably all they need, while temporizing in their diplomatic response and making noises to indicate that they are seriously looking at it. After the Gaza “peace” resolution I am less sure that Russia and China will be using their veto on the side of the angels when it comes to Middle East conflicts. Hope I am wrong about that.
Is there a prediction market bet for a China and Russia abstention? Sadly, I’d go with that.
You would have won. Thirteen in favor, none opposed, two abstentions (China and Russia). Brings to mind the 2011 “no fly zone” Security Council resolution that authorized any member state to take “all necessary steps” to protect civilians in Libya. Russia and China abstained on that one too. And, despite massive differences in the situations, there is one reason that is the same: relations with the Saudis and the gulf states. I suggest not too much be made of the formality of a Security Council Resolution; Israel and the U.S. have robbed the UN of what authority its formalities ever had. The UN now has greater authority from its acts that cannot obtain formality than those that can, see for example Francesca Albanese. The importance of the abstainers acting in concert is what is of over-riding importance.
working link to Libyan Security Council resolution of 2011
It just passed the security council and neither Russia nor China vetoed it.
Apologies to John Helmer.
The resolution did not say what Sunlight Disinfects said it would. It did not “demand” a stop. It “urged” Iran to stop. Big difference. This is not the scenario presented earlier. See: https://www.wionews.com/world/un-security-council-passes-resolution-urging-iran-to-stop-gulf-attacks-china-russia-abstain-1773267627332
nd China and Russia abstained. They did not veto.
See:
https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2026/03/the-middle-east-crisis-votes-on-two-draft-resolutions.php
So please tell me where the betrayal is? China and Russia objected before the vote and during the debate.
In addition, it is undeniable that Iran’s attacks in the Gulf have gone beyond military targets. Iran effectively argued that because it cannot hit the US for its attacks on civilian assets like its passenger airport, it can attack similar assets in Gulf States that have US basses. But consider: the drones that have been hitting the Dubai airport have made it very hard to fly through there. As one of many examples, a lot of Russians visit and even own property in Thailand. Far and away the best route is through Dubai. Most I know here who are seasonal vistiors buy their tix well in advance. So Russia may even have felt it had domestic reasons to maintain the pretense that it is supporting Iran only in its defensive actions.
China’s posture is to be anti war in general. Russia is probably the only country that can broker a possible solution, not that that seems likely. So they may have felt the need to sit on their hands. Given that they did get some of the changes they sought, and given that the Western press (NYT, IIRC) had reported that Iran is providing intel support to Iran (as is China via among other things its spy chip and publication of satellite images of US bases, which has not stopped), they may have felt they went as far as they could. Remember the strikes on the Gulf States are hurting the Global South via higher energy prices and risks to critical commodities like urea, as discussed above.
And as Lefty Gogot pointed out, as we saw with Israel, these UN votes mean nothing.
And . so
Thank you. Indeed, it doesn’t change much on the ground, but I saw Craig Mokhiber’s post about it and he was pretty upset. What it does is send a signal that Iran is on its own. But it also gives currently non-aligned countries like Pakistan a pretext to align themselves against Iran since they can argue following a UN mandate but.
Just spit-balling here, but first a few caveats: I know almost nothing about the shipping industry and even less about the insurance business; not to mention the obstacles that stand in the way of organizing and managing what I suggest below. But the downstream effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are so ominous for so many, as described by Craig Tindale in a piece linked on this side a few days ago, that it’s urgent we begin thinking now about ways to ameliorate them. So here goes.
Let’s suppose the China and Russia, with Iran’s consent, organize a consortium to provide state-backstopped insurance for shipments into and out of the Persian Gulf. (Other countries may be included in the consortium as China and Russia see fit.) This arrangement will be enforced by onsite naval assets of member countries of the consortium, and it will remain in effect at least until the hostilities incited by Operation Epic Fury are resolved by a formal agreement among the contending parties.
To be insured shipments must meet the following criteria:
Countries that theretofor did not meet these criteria can apply for a change of status if they formally commit to rigorously meeting them in the future. If such a change of status is granted to a country and it later violates the criteria, the status will be revoked and the country will not be reconsidered for a status change in the future.
The main beneficiaries of this arrangement will be the people of the bystanding countries, primarily in the global South, whose lives will be most severely impacted negatively by the closure of the strait. The geopolitical ramifications of this arrangement will also be significant; they are also unpredictable.
I believe that the people in the Global South are already suffering, have learned to do without… arguably will see the least change in their lives of privation and global neglect.
It will be the middle earth folks that will not have the faintest clue about , ‘making do’.
We are spoilt.
“When the Revolution comes, will your bicycle be ready?”
Che Guevara (Kidding!!)
Me thinks you underestimate the effectiveness of World Bank food-policy, now with generations of depth in developing nations. Most have replaced locally grown produce with cheaper, foreign goods. The agricultural know-how lost from these communities took millennia to acquire, not to speak of the topsoil destroyed by the for-export monocropping that replaced it. Then whatever food industry is maintained is sustained by artificial (read: oil) means. They may not be watching the stock market, but the Global South are sensitive to food prices, and it’s hard to ‘make-do’ when there’s nothing to make it with. Already Suffering = Dead when things get worse. Cue the warlords seizing sacks of rice.
Might be time to learn how to shoot (accurately), purchase an almanac… wonder how those hold up in this climate?
Great to see Col. Wilkerson on HypocrisyNow! Finally they have an honest guest about the Iran war.
I have been quite disappointed to see that they have been demonizing the “Iranian regime” with interviews from pro-Pahlavi types. They routinely refer to the Iranian government as “regime”, and do not use this term for the Gulf Arab dictatorships, the US or Israel. They often repeat lies about Iran. (as they have been demonizing Russia for years).
Prof. Marandi has pointed out how the “liberal” and what passes for left media in the US are just as bad as the authoritarian, right-wing warmonger mainstream media. The subtle and not so subtle Orientalist tropes do not go unnoticed.
To the good professor’s credit, he has proved to be quite accurate in his predictions: he predicted that Iran would vigorously attack US military assets in the Persian Gulf region, that the Resistance would be activated in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon (and soon Ansar Allah in Yemen). The Strait would be closed etc.
As pointed out by Yves, and with Craig Tinsdale article mentioned last week, the potential for catastrophic consequences should not be understated. MacGregor, Wilkerson, Marandi, Crooke and others have also pointed out the likely negative results.
Given all of this and more, it is extremely difficult to remain optimistic and not fall into cycle of anger and depression. This site and like-minded, informed, intellectually-honest folks here are a life-line: in addition to excellent information and analysis, it is a sort of support group, thank you
Can Iran’s submarine fleet hit targets in the US proper?
Are submarines easily hidden or do they easily blast on modern sonar?
I am more worried about Israel’s submarines and nuclear blackmail.
Diesel Electric subs, especially in coastal waters, as I understand it, are quieter than nuclear powered ones (nuclear powered boats are louder b/c reactor cooling systems always make noise). Not sure if most conventional subs nowadays (Australia being the one exception and Israel being a sort of an exception–but their boats don’t exactly sail on high seas either.) are desgined, or, even if they are, have crews trained, to operate on high seas, though. I’d be skeptical if Iranian subs can operate anywhere beyond the Arabian Sea.
The best submarines Iran has are 3 Russian Kilo-class vessels. Apparently in right conditions (running on electric motors, close to the noisy surface) it’s a “black hole”, meaning quieter than the environment.
Without a support ship on the surface they have range to reach Madagascar or the Strait of Malacca.
A few days old but this long Blumenthal report on how Trump was convinced that Iran was trying to kill him worth a look.
https://thegrayzone.com/2026/03/06/israel-fbi-assassination-plots-trump-iran-war/
I do not recall that Chris Whipple ever mentioned the word “Israel” in his 2-part article about Susan Wiles that appeared in Vanity Fair. Hmmm.
Spain permanently withdraws ambassador as rift with Israel deepens
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/spain-removes-ambassador-israel-2026-03-11/
Europe prepares to approve historic emergency oil release
European capitals said they would back IEA’s request to release 400 million barrels of oil.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-prepares-to-approve-historic-emergency-oil-release/
Trump Energy Chief Accused of Manipulating Oil Markets With Deleted Post About Strait of Hormuz
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former fracking executive, was accused on Tuesday of manipulating global markets after he posted a striking claim on social media: The American Navy, he wrote, had “successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing.”
The post on X was deleted minutes later, after “oil prices slid at their steepest pace in years,” according to the Wall Street Journal. The White House press secretary later acknowledged publicly that Wright’s claim was false
https://www.commondreams.org/news/chris-wright-market-manipulation
Millions of Americans can now claim Canadian citizenship by descent.
But they have to prove it
Bill C-3, which came into effect Dec. 15, removes first-generation limit for citizenship
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bill-c-3-canadian-citizenship-by-descent-american-interest-9.7112724#:~:text=Fultz%20said%20the%20main%20documents,for%20certified%20copies%20have%20exploded.
*Claim your citizenship certificate. We are citizens just in time for the hockey teams to not win.
Thank you for this.I’ve sent it to people who can use it.
From Aljazeera liveblog (about 20 min ago):
“… the IEA has recommended countries release emergency reserves of about 400 million barrels of oil.
Under the plan, the organisation would oversee a staggered release of the oil over the coming days, weeks, or even months.
They say an impact could be seen in two to four weeks …”
= =
Isn’t this nothing more than a band-aide? By the time there’s any release, the world will have experienced an oil shortfall that is about the same as the IEA’s authorized release (which then occurs over weeks or months).
Expected market reaction?
>> Risk-off: Trump has space to conquer Iran?
>> Risk-on: No end of war in sight?
Western media will likely play up the former: they won’t counter Trump’s “we haven’t won enough yet” bluster.
Iran says it won’t allow ‘a single litre of oil’ to pass through Strait of Hormuz (BBC)
Three cargo ships struck off Iran’s coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)
Yes, also posted by me upthread. But thanks for making sure it was not missed.
I’m going to assume this is their target price, and they intend to keep Hormuz closed until the West is feeling some major pain. The Iranians have been pretty good at keeping their promises. IEA emergency measure of releasing emergency reserves could mitigate, but for how long?
The price of oil has been consolidating around 90. It’s almost certainly not going back to 70 anytime soon.
FAFO, Mr. Trump.
“The moves in yields and inflation expectations have hardly been the stuff of nightmares.”
Only if you dream about money or profiting from investments derived from proprietary information and speculation – which is not economic activity, it is predation.
I don’t think you meant to use the word ‘hardly’ in the sentence, above, that negates your meaning.
Less emoting, please.
Do you make a habit of showing how poor your reading comprehension is?
1. That is quoted text from Axios. You have NO business in accusing us of emoting.
2. Had you bothered reading what Axios said? They meant EXACTLY what that text said, that the changes in yields and inflation expectations were ho hum so far.
This sort of out of line, negative value added comment is why you are in moderation. I let this out only to chew you out. I won’t approve further lame remarks like this.
“What sort of spoofing would lead to ships being reported at speeds of 100 knots?”
At the low end, a small shell script that iterates, over and over, generating random integers and plugging them into a program that uploads false location reports to the central database from which all this data is drawn. Could be running on a Raspberry Pi, drawing just a few watts.
At the high end, Claude or ChatGPT, doing the same thing, but burning through billions of CPU cycles and gigabytes of RAM and consuming megawatts of power.
It’s the Pentagon, so probably the latter.
so while I getting packing tape at Mega-Lo Mart, I bought some extra of my favorite motor oil as it is at a price that can’t go any lower even if there never was a war.
I’m burnt out on being Mad Max, but next time I’m at the ESG Warehouse Club, I’m going to buy a little more of stuff that I’m going to randomly guess might be affected by supply chain disruptions a la Covid: cashews, coffee, etc. (not buying pallets of lentils, lol)
Everyone has to think about this given their own circumstances: medicine, pet stuff, looking to paint your house this summer?, are you a contractor that does ### storm-damaged roofs every season, etc.
Widgets with long supply chains, and/or hydrocarbon-derived. And something that if you buy too much of, it’s no big deal, just a minor annoyance that you have to work through.
Do not buy a pallet of widgets on the expectation of flipping each widget on eBay, lol.
They went after that dude that bought up all the hand sanitizer in 2020 as I recall and then resold it.
Outed as comedian Albert Brooks in the popular investigative TV series Curb Your Enthusiasm.
if i can still afford it next payday, a few more chains and air filters and such for the chainsaws, as well as fuel and bar n chain oil…thats top of my list, right now….and likely doable, so long as mom doesnt notice me charging the latter 2 at the feedstore,lol.
already got 100 gallons of gas on hand, with ‘stabil’….and when truck gets down to 3/4, i fill it up again…which is what im continually bitching at the boys to do.
but im very poor,lol…and can only do so much.
biggest garden since Tam got sick, though….lasagne rehabbing 2 beds this year:cardboard and paper feedsacks, then hay and birdshit from the 2 chickenhouses, then city mulch and rotted manure. most of what i planted is in rotted manure filled lick tubs thatare also helping to hold all this down during wind season.
ill dump them out in situ next winter, an o the whole thing over for 3-4 years=>few weeds, no hoeing, french intensive, again.
being handy with a chainsaw is an excellent skill to barter with.
The best applied physicists outside of academia are people who know who to handle a chainsaw, no joke.
Spoken from personal hacking experience w/a chainsaw—-fortunately I have not severed my own limb or fell a tree onto a neighbor’s fence, lol
Thousands of pets being abandoned in Dubai as owners flee over Iran war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/pets-abandoned-dubai-expat-owners-flee-iran-war
Canada will ‘never participate’ in Iran offensive, Mark Carney says
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/canada-will-never-participate-in-iran-offensive-mark-carney-says/article_927240a4-5314-52ff-aa1d-86b9a52df01e.html
The same way is NOT ‘participating’ in the Gaza genocide, eh?!
When ICJ was supposed to provide a ruling a year or two ago about the legality/illegality of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories, Canada intervened on behalf of Israel. But provided its remarks in a sealed envelope so its position would not be caught on camera and on record for public view. At least Hungary had the courage to speak out its position. So I don’t believe the Canadian politicians statements one iota.
I agree completely, they are slippery weasels (apologies to genuine furry weasels), and note the phrasing — Canada will not participate in attacks on Iran — but help shoot down Iranian missiles, vote for anti-Iranian motions at the UN, support and impose sanctions, refuel Israeli and US aircraft and generally do everything they can to discredit and undermine Iran — sure, no problem!
With regards to Iran mining the Straits of Hormuz. Don’t they have some capability in UUV’s (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles)? And UUV’s have at the very least the upside of not needing to do the difficult work of cleaning mines out of the ocean after this is over.
Per Iran they have rocket-fired mines.
Are you talking about Iran, or the US?
Both have UUVs, but for a variety of physics reasons, it is difficult to communicate under water (not impossible, just a lot more difficult than communicating above water). Most UUVs are therefore pre-programmed and “autonomous” unless they receive an interrupt request.
But Iran wouldn’t really need this, presuming that they are the ones laying the mines, as they would likely simply map their locations and (possibly) program them to self-destruct if given a very particular set of signals. I am simplifying a bit, but that’s the gist of it.
I love apocalyptic scenarios, but I don’t think I would survive one. It is nice to see those matematically predicted, like this one:
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-catabolic-correction-redefining
should be read while listening to the wonderful Tom Lehrer’s cheerful songs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs
“I love apocalyptic scenarios, but I don’t think I would survive one.”
😂👍
“If any good songs are going to come out of World War III, we’d better start writing them now.” -Tom Lehrer
Maybe the word we should be looking at is not “reparations,” but rather “tribute,” as the new-dominant power in the region begins collecting up “everything but some completely immovable geographic features” from the losers who backed the wrong horses in this matter.
Sorry if I missed this above but one of the measures still available to Iran on the escalation ladder is destruction of desalination plants in the gulf. Gulf monarchies are almost completely dependent on desalination for drinking water. Everyone would need to move.
I am somewhat surprised a new crop of US politicians have not yet called for the end of AIPAC (or at least forcing them to register as a foreign lobby)
Maybe this needs to wait a couple of more months, but whoever does that will likely get a ton of donations and a lot of votes in the upcoming elections in all but the most pro-jewish ridings
And their popularity would just increase monotonically until they renege on their promises in January…
What they have been doing lately is funneling contributions through cut-outs. Someone has documented this, I can’t recall who.
I think some would look for application of FARA which uniquely is not applied to Israel.
I’d like to see prohibitions on office holders holding multiple passports.
https://www.trackaipac.com/
I posted a comment on this a couple of days ago. We might even extend the thought experiment like so: imagine an Otherwise Party. It would be an entirely virtual overlay of the existing structures. Its only mandatory Venn intersection would have to do with funding from the Israel lobby. A Democrat can run on Democrat things, and a Republican can do likewise as a Republican. That’s why it’s called the Otherwise Party. Apart from the Israel lobby commitment, those who join it remain conventional D’s and R’s. No third-party ballot access rigamarole. No platform fights. Just a minimalist, focused political intervention. Want to hear out pro-Israel people? No problem. But no money.
Blue skies, nothin’ but blue skies … Remember, though, that single-issue movements, reform caucuses, and pledge-based coordination aren’t without precedent. An OP may not be likely, but it’s possible, FWTW.
no one wants to be the first one in a charge. a self-evident observation from Feral Historian. (i forget which video, lol)
https://www.youtube.com/@feralhistorian
Re: GPS jamming or spoofing
Sites like MarineTraffic are gathering data from world wide vessel traffic services (VTS). VTS is a combination of marine radar and transponder information using Automatic Identification System data:
Automatic identification system
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_identification_system
Typically for a “small boater” this consists of interfacing the GPS to an AIS enabled VHF radio. The data is broadcast on a dedicated VHF channel as long as the radio and GPS are powered up. A MMSI number set in the radio provides the identification data that is transmitted with the position and speed/direction data:
Maritime Mobile Service Identities – MMSI
https://www.fcc.gov/wireless/bureau-divisions/mobility-division/maritime-mobile/ship-radio-stations/maritime-mobile
Larger boats do even more. The AIS data from the VHF radio is interfaced to a chartplotter so that the surrounding ships are shown on the display overlayed on electronic charts which can also display the boat’s radar data which is also interfaced to the autopilot so it can steer the boat and so on.
Marine vessels do even more, but in all of this, it’s pretty easy to manipulate the data your vessel sends out via AIS (or just turn it off). At some point this breaks maritime standards and becomes somewhat illegal and stupid (since most VTS systems are also using marine radar to track position and speeds). I think there are people much better versed on maritime law so I hope they can address that if there are questions.
I should add that it looks like GPS jamming is indeed happening in the straits:
Why GPS jamming around the Strait of Hormuz has become a major concern
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-sci-tech/iran-war-hormuz-gps-jamming-concern-10574977/
So if the GPS data is getting jammed, it can cause some real havoc with the navigation systems on these vessels, and you’ll see some some crazy AIS data reported (like if the GPS reported position jumps significantly between readings then the computed course/speed will go goofball.) If the data is just missing, the ships could use a combination of course/speed along with position information from the VTS (assuming the VTS has radar – all in the US do) via radio/sat.
What a mess.
It was reported on the news here the other day that 22% of New Zealand’s nitrogen fertiliser comes from the Gulf. That might not sound like a lot, but it’s a critical resource here – a lot of the dairy export growth to places like China has been achieved through dairy conversions and intensification, which relies heavily on nitrogen fertiliser to be viable.
The article said that farmers typically stockpile for autumn around this time of year and that they are probably OK for the next few months as a result. After that it’s likely to become painful. Some of the farmers interviewed explicitly talked about increasing their stores more than usual to insulate against that scenario (and because they expect prices to go up). If enough of them are thinking that way then I expect higher prices and competition for supply right away, even if any actual impact to agricultural output is delayed.
On another note (reply to comment about New Zealand in moderation): Watties, a local producer of canned and frozen fruit/vegetables for generations, just announced a plan to shut down local operations due to poor competitive position relative to imports. So if globalisation breaks down, the oil price skyrockets and world trade becomes balkanised, we’ll be awash in dairy, beef and lamb, while having gotten rid of most of our vegetable and grain production (oh, and we won’t be able to source the fertiliser for large animal fodder). At least the local fruit industry is still healthy, for now.
CONSORTIUMNEWS has an interview with a former Israeli military intelligence officer: Ari Ben-Menashe.
I intended to note the talking points but found myself transcribing the entire conversation so I guess you should rather listen to all of it.
Others here can assess this better than me however.
In very short he argues, Trump is being blackmailed by Netanj. who needs war to stay out of prison.
Ben-Menashe hopes Trump will end the war in a few days.
Trump was forced to go to war in the last moment by Netanj.
He believes their relationship has cooled down, which is why e.g. Witkoff/Kushner did not go to Israel recently as had been planned.
He also claims direct negotiations between US and Iran are taking place now.
He warns of the “sinister” visit of Modi to Israel which had only one purpose – to inform Netanj. about how India would react were Pakistan to assure Iran of nuclear retaliation against Israel in case Netanj. would choose to use nukes – which Ben-Menashe thinks is very possible with Netanj. but unlikely because too few people (including US) would want that.
‘The Toll on Israel’
March 10, 2026
Former Israeli military intelligence officer Ari Ben-Menashe discusses what he knows about the damage Israel has suffered from Iran, the causes of the war and the direction he thinks it is headed.
48 min.
https://consortiumnews.com/2026/03/10/watch-cn-live-the-toll-on-israel/
p.s. He kind of reminded me of Helmer where one too wonders if he actually ever leaves his living room to talk to sources outsde and meet human beings or only speaks on the phone, by pigeon mail or some other ancint methods. (this is no intended as criticism.)
IMO, trump doesn’t need to be blackmailed. Dude survived a bullet by inches, got 2 terms, probably feels indestructible. Trump is a guy who puts personal bonds, personal lobbying over rational analytics.
then toss in the transient strokes hypothesis affecting his judgment (which I 100% align myself with).
Hubris walks w/Nemesis
ymmv.
Two things struck me in listening — 1) AbM came across as very confident that damage was relatively slight, but it’s not clear what his information sources are, 2) he seems unreasonably confident that the Iranians will cooperate with DJT’s desire to wind down the conflict. My perception from other commentary, such as that of Alexander Mercouris, is that the Iranians are done with temporary truces and want to fight to a durable peace. It is reported that there were voices in the Iranian military that wanted to press their perceived advantage in late June 2025; one would think that this view has been vindicated by events, and another de-escalation to give Israel a “breather” might now be widely regarded to be unwise.
I assume I am willing to go along with AbM´s optimism out of sheer desperation/hope and against my better judgement. Maybe he is as good as half of his points. That would give us at least the chance of the toss of a coin to end this earlier than anyone here would believe.
Here is a kind of unique video that makes you wonder just who might win the propaganda wars in the end. I am not able to copy it, but I would if I could, because it is likely to be taken down. If you like someone like Mizrahi for his darker side, you might enjoy it. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4NSFyTZnx_c?feature=share It features a black American preacher type eloquently “telling it like it is.” I suppose the smoothness of the rhetoric might be taken to indicate some AI content, but it is still a small work of art.
Thank you Clwydshire.
“The veil is off.”
As one well acquainted with the genre and style, the rhetoric and voice seem authentic to me. There are many eloquent and direct African-American preachers — no AI needed. This one is ‘fired up’ for sure!
EU
BERLINER ZEITUNG
machine-translation
“This is the price of our dependence”: Ursula von der Leyen’s U-turn in Iran policy
The Commission President has announced measures to combat soaring energy prices. Her approach has drawn sharp criticism in Parliament.
Our reporter is reporting from Strasbourg.
by Eric Bonse
https://archive.is/qgDbY
Trump says he’ll tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cut energy costs
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-war-trump-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve.html
We’ve only just begun World War 3
White Evang Nationalist and Zionist promises
A Torah! Torah! Torah! for luck and we’re on our way
We’ve only begun
Before the rising sun, missiles fly
So many targets to choose
We’ll start by taking out Khamenei and put them on the run
And yes, we’ve just begun
Sharing war horizons that are new to us
Watching the signs along the way
Takin’ it over, just the two of us
Workin’ together day to day, together
And when the war came, we smiled
So much of strife ahead
We’ll find some lebensraum where there’s room to grow
And yes, we’ve just begun
Sharing war horizons that are new to us
Watching the signs along the way
Takin’ it over, just the two of us
Workin’ together day to day, together
And when the war came, we smiled
So much of strife ahead
We’ll find some lebensraum where there’s room to grow
And yes, we’ve just begun
We’ve Only Just Begun, performed by the Carpenters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J81rHyVlSRw&list=RDJ81rHyVlSRw
Really good.
Calling out these religious nutters and their enablers can’t be done enough, imo.
My fave version is a jazzy one ;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QFUM_mhNLM
Lloyd’s of London stresses it is still insuring shipping in strait of Hormuz
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/11/lloyds-of-london-insurance-shipping-strait-of-hormuz-us-israel-iran
Irrelevant. Tariffs have gone way up as the article plainly states. And it’s not only the insurance. Shippers don’t want to lose these hulls because of the expense and lag time before they can be replaced.
“Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world’s oil reserves. We’re going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves. This is China’s nightmare. This is a good investment,” he said. Lindsey Graham/People Magazine)
An interesting interviews with political scientist Robert Pape on Basically Iran has a strategy, the US doesn’t one. And escalation is a trap for the US. Also, airpower, alone, hasn’t worked with regime change from Kittty Hill.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFIJuoDQ7w0
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-iran-2676081678/
Not only aren’t oil, gas, & urea going out of the Straits of Hormuz; Iran’s naval blockade is mpacting the importation of food to the Gulf States. With no bread on the table, will local populations tend get antsy. Supper or US troops? Take your pick. Note: Graham in another hissy fit, threatened the members of the GCC.
“Man up or else!”
What’s driving me nuts is that so many US commentators have picked up and still repeat some version of Bibi’s insane appeal to Iranians: ““In the coming days, we will strike thousands of targets of the terrorist regime,” Netanyahu said, adding that the operation aimed to enable “the brave people of Iran to free themselves from the chains of tyranny.”
As if killing 170 schoo girls in Minab would encourage Iranians to rise up against their “terrorist regime.” I mean, isn’t wanton US and Israeli death and destruction inherently more attractive than putting up with some bad things done by your own leaders?
Of course, these pro-Zionist commentators make no mention of the widely known US/Israeli genocide in Gaza and unconscionable brutality throughout the Middle East. They can only peddle the BS that liberation from the Mullahs is self-evidently better and profess dismay that Iranians haven’t seized the opportunity!!!
And yet such nonsense must have some resonance among parts of the electorate, else why would they be peddling such balderdash?
Yes, I gather it resonates because the electorate has been relentlessly propagandized about how horrible and oppressive the Iranian “regime” must be.
You hear in being played back whenever “liberals” talk about Iran. Just as it has been with Russia, there is the obligatory boilerplate prologue about how terrible and dictatorial the Ayatollah was — e.g., “I won’t miss him” — before some head nodding that “liberation” would be a good thing. The propaganda has foamed the runway for the idea that regime change = liberation. Never mind that things didn’t work out that way in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, etc.
Liberal criticism then turns to Trump, who is not being questioned for a war of aggression, but only because he’s doing a bad job of it.
Hasty redeployment of US missiles from South Korea to Middle East leaves Seoul rattled
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/redeployment-us-missiles-thaad-south-korea-middle-east-seoul-iran
Trump on Iran: We won, but don’t want to leave early
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-iran-we-won-dont-want-leave-early-2026-03-11/
Iran’s Oil Exports Are Making Trump Look Pretty Foolish Right Now
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have halted—except for Iran’s.
https://newrepublic.com/post/207662/iran-oil-straight-hormuz-exports
Per TASS:
UNSC adopts Bahrain’s resolution on Middle East, with Russia, China abstaining
The UN Security Council has approved a resolution drafted by Bahrain on the Middle East conflict that condemns Iran but omits any mention of attacks by the US and Israel, a TASS correspondent reports.
Thirteen of the 15 members of the Security Council voted in favor of the document, while Russia and China abstained.
Wow. That’s a plot point. They’re volunteering to be made an example of by Iran. Why? Do they feel the Americans can win? Or, did they wake up to a horse’s head in bed? Are the Americans pulling the chain, or is it someone else? Is this theater by the monarchy so when they cut losses and run, they’ve licked the right hands?
Forgive the excessive metaphors…
Little surprise (except Pakistan I guess but there are certainly behind-the-scene reasons.)
SC currently is composed of 15 members:
Five permanent members: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and ten non-permanent members elected for two-year terms by the General Assembly (with end of term year):
Bahrain (2027)
Colombia (2027)
Democratic Republic of the Congo (2027)
Denmark (2026)
Greece (2026)
Latvia (2027)
Liberia (2027)
Pakistan (2026)
Panama (2026)
Somalia (2026)
https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/content/current-members
Brent crude futures breaking out:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pv9aECBU/
So much winning…
A bunch of oil war stuff:
—–
Will we see US tanker-seizure operations South of the strait in the near future? This story was also in the WSJ and my Spidey senses are tingling.
Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway (CNBC)
…Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, told CNBC on Tuesday…
…Shipping intelligence data provider Kpler estimates around 12 million barrels of crude oil to have passed through the strait since the war started. “Given that China has been the primary buyer of Iranian crude in recent years, a significant share of these barrels could ultimately head there,”…
…Kharg island terminal, located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran, has long been the country’s primary oil export facility, handling around 90% of its crude exports before tankers travel through the Strait of Hormuz…
…Now, Iran has also resumed loading tankers at the Jask oil and gas terminal along the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait of Hormuz, which could add additional capacity to crude shipments…
…Now, Iran has also resumed loading tankers at the Jask oil and gas terminal along the Gulf of Oman, south of the Strait of Hormuz, which could add additional capacity to crude shipments….
…Madani said. “It has good domestic propaganda value, but not much in terms of a logistical advantage.
—
In other tanker news, 2 more are on fire, this time in Iraqi waters.
Video of very on fire tanker
Guardian blog report:
Iraqi oil ports halt operations after tanker attack – official
Iraq’s oil ports have completely stopped operations while commercial ports continue to operate after an attack on a fuel tanker, an Iraqi official has said.
Farhan Al-Fartousi, the head of Iraq’s General Company for Ports, also told Al-Iraqiya News that one crew member was killed and 38 had been rescued, according to state news agency INA. He said a search for the missing was continuing.
Iraqi port security officials has said, as reported earlier, that two foreign tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were in flames after being attacked by Iranian boats laden with explosives.
Al-Fartousi said a tanker loaded with petroleum products was in the process of loading when it was involved in an “incident”, the INA report said, also saying:
He added that “one of the smaller tankers involved flies the Maltese flag” noting that the vessel was hit by an explosion, though it remains unclear whether it was a direct strike or a waterborne improvised explosive device (suicide boat).
Al-Fartousi said the tankers were about 30 miles (48km) off the Iraqi coast.
The Iraqi government’s media cell has been quoted as telling INA that “two tankers were subject to sabotage”.
—
Big fire at Oman port oil storage
[The Oman situation in this war is confusing to me]
—-
Lots of bluster from US regime and US media about opening Hormuz, but how????
—–
G7 leaders agreed to examine option of escorting ships to navigate freely in Persian Gulf (Baird Maritime)
The leaders of the G7 group of nations – the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France – agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Persian Gulf, said a statement from the G7 Presidency on Wednesday.
The statement was issued after French President Emmanuel Macron had convened a call with G7 leaders to discuss the US-Israeli war on Iran and its impact on rising energy prices.
“In this regard, a working group has been set up to explore the possibility of escorting ships when the right security conditions are in place, and this will also come along with approaches made to shipping companies, transport companies and insurers,” said the statement.
OMG, a working group to examine the possibility! That’ll fix it!
—–
On the Hormuz specific topic, propaganda videos (repeats from January and last year) doing the rounds again of the Iranian underwater missile base and (tbh pretty badass looking) underground speedboat bases
That’s not an exaggeration!
People thought Iran was just kidding?
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c4gqjyk0vx3t?post=asset%3Aac0d0356-9228-4ee6-8193-0c3f3ac90c40#post