[This Iran war post is launching again before complete. I aspire to have it done by 8:00 AM EDT. Feel free to comment straight away, but do refresh your browsers and re-skim at 8:00 AM]
As the Iran war continues, it still appears that the best prospect for the Trump Administration to get past their severe denial and make genuine efforts to back out of the epic disaster they have created is a market rout. As we have demonstrated and others are staring to voice, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, if it persists for even as much as a week longer, will inflict durable damage on the global economy, reaching far beyond the impact the world can see now, of higher oil and LNG prices whose effects alone will ripple though the costs of goods generally. The downside of a closure of a mere additional month, even assuming no damage to energy production facilities in the Gulf, given the time it will take to get shuttered operations back to full steam, is a serious global recession. Two months from today would translate into a multi-fronted real economy crisis and high odds of a global depression, along with food shortages.
So I remain stunned at the level of investor complacency and the willingness of too many to take handwaves from the Administration, bluster about how much we are hurting Iran and how the war is nearly won, and insubstantial promises of somehow forcing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as a testimony to elite greed and incompetence. The head of every major financial firm and US multinational should be in Trump’s and Congresscritters’ faces demanding a monster change of course.
But between deeply internalized faith in Western superiority and the successful numbing effect of decades of ever-better propaganda, they cannot see what is obvious: Iran has the means and will to destroy the world economy. I had invoked the novel Dune early in this war, “He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing.” And as we have shown, by throttling the Strait of Hormuz, it has not merely strangled energy and fertilizer supplies, as serious as those are. We’ve pointed to the knock-on effect on other critical supplies, using sulphuric acid, which is essential in many manufacturing processes, as another example. And as we’ll soon show, the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz is also wreaking havoc with shipping generaly.
Let me offer a forecast. I am not saying this is what will happen, but right now, it seems a probable path. Trump and his team are increasingly messaging that somehow they will pry the Strait of Hormuz open. When that idea was first voiced, we showcased Daniel Davis in one of his Deep Dive presentations on what an impossibly bad idea that was, that it would simply open up naval ships for easy destruction by Iran. Nevertheless, talking this barmy scheme up to credulous investors and the public, that somehow the spice will be flowing again soon, is now the Administration’s best path for somewhat containing energy price rises and the immediate damage they do
We’ll show in a video below from shipping maven Sal Mercogliano that a plan seems to be advancing to get forces in place to implement a limited Strait of Hormuz opening, at only 10% of pre-war transit levels, starting at the end of the month (Mercogliano deems even that level of relief to be grossly inadequate). Let us not forget a point I believe Douglas Macgregor and perhaps others have made: our navy, in terms of level and diversity of vessels, is a shadow of what it was in the 1980s, during what were called the tanker wars.
The Administration does have to Do Something in its own mind, rather than admit now to a Suez Crisis level self-inflicted loss of primacy. Forcing open the Strait of Hormuz fits our fantasies of dominance and military power. And if enough officials talk about this, erm, plan, the Administration may talk itself into it.
So if we have not had a market freakout sooner, the likely trigger for one is sending US ships to the Strait of Hormuz and suffering a crushing defeat. It would then become undeniable that Iran has the whip hand.
An alternative scenario is a soft military coup, that the Navy refuses to take the Trump order to pursue what would be close to a large-scale suicide mission.
Keep in mind that as the situation on the West looks more and more desperate, the new Iranian Supreme Leader has made his first public statement, and among other things, has vowed to expand the scope of the conflict.
This item from the Bloomberg live feed 30 minutes ago provides yet more confirmation of the severity of the denial. How can anyone who has a grip on the balance of forces and Iran’s incentives think that hostilities will end in as soon as two months, ex the inconceivable-to-this-crowd spectacle (admittedly not likely but possible) of a US military collapse?
Contrast what amounts to a derangedly sunny view with this section from an important piece by Kevork Almassian:
Because Washington didn’t only miscalculate Iran’s will, it miscalculated geography, logistics, and blowback. It miscalculated the fact that the U.S. empire in the Middle East is not a fortress; it is a web of exposed arteries: bases scattered across Gulf monarchies, troops housed in predictable locations, air defenses that are expensive and finite, radars and communications nodes that can be degraded, and a regional order that can be shaken with one choke point.
You can see the arrogance in the assumptions. For years, Iran warned that if its survival is threatened—if the U.S. and Israel push the conflict into an existential zone—Hormuz becomes part of the battlefield. Washington heard that and filed it under “Iranian theatrics,” because the American political class is addicted to the idea that their enemies always bluff, while they alone possess the right to act.
But Iran was not bluffing. Iran was describing the rules of an environment where deterrence is the only language that keeps you alive.
And as Daniel Davis stressed, it was our explicit threat against the very existence of the Iranian nation that legitimated the use of closing the Strait of Hormuz.
This Sal Mercogliano update is a must-watch.
Notice first that Mercogliano makes clear that he is distressed. He describes the dire consequences of a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, not just to oil and LNG transit, but the operation of global shipping. Yet he is grasping at straws. He believes the US is able to open the Strait of Hormuz but has badly misallocated military resources. He mentions that we have the ability to do so, using helicopters and small vessels. I am sure these military assets would make for easy targets from the many caves in the cliffs overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. He is also beside himself over the prospect that no action will be taken to pry open the Strait before (presumably at the earliest) the end of March, and that the target of escorting only 10% of pre-war transit levels is so low.
And Iran is hitting ships at a faster pace. However, this may be due to more efforts to move them than by design.
Sixteen ships struck in the Strait of Hormuz.
One narrow passage carrying a fifth of the world’s oil.
For decades the US tried to stop any state from weaponizing this chokepoint. Now Iran is showing exactly how fragile that strategy really was.
The Trump administration kicked… pic.twitter.com/ZWuktz6u9y— Richard (@ricwe123) March 13, 2026
Other important new video. Janta Ka has a double-header, one starting with the, erm, loss of a refueler plane over Iraq, which CENTCOM insists was not attacked but the Iraqi militia says otherwise. Now it is remotely possible, with the warning that former Army Ranger Greg Stoker gave about our poor military maintenance and logistics, because outsourcing, that it really did fall from the sky. But it is hardly unreasonable to question the official story, particularly in light of Daniel Davis saying in one of his past 24 hour videos that inside sources tell him that the damage and cost to personnel are far worse than has been acknowledged.
Janta Ka also covered the remarks of the new Supreme Leader, the most important of which Aljaeera flagged in its live feed yesterday morning US time. Its lead headline then:
Iran war live: US bases will be attacked unless closed, says Khamenei
And
Supreme leader vows Iran will secure compensation through assets or destruction
In a written statement read out on state TV, Iran’s supreme leader has said the country “will obtain compensation from the enemy”.
“If it refuses, we will take from its assets to the extent we deem appropriate, and if that is not possible, we will destroy its assets to the same extent,” he said in the statement.
And the second Janta Ka presentation includes telling clips of prominent Republicans making pointed statements that show they can see the war is going pear-shaped, as well as a brief recap of a Netanyahu presentation via Zoom. The Times of Israel report is In first press conference since war began, Netanyahu says Israel ‘crushing’ Iran and Hezbollah, mocks IRGC ‘puppet’ Mojtaba Khamenei, who ‘cannot show his face in public’.1
Some additional kinetic war items. The current banner headline at Bloomberg:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization intercepted an Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace on Friday, Turkey’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.
“A ballistic munition launched from Iran and entering Turkish airspace was neutralized by NATO air and missile defense assets deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean,” the ministry said, without disclosing the location of the incident.
An initial reaction:
Iran fired a missile at US Incirlik Airbase in Turkey (NATO) as a flex to show it can.
5,000 US troops. 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs in a vault.
Incirlik is critical to Israeli genocides in Palestine, bombings and occupations of Lebanon and Syria, attacks on Iran.
Game… https://t.co/K5ZZCEihB1
— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) March 13, 2026
Aljazeera’s live feed highlights Israel’s continuing attacks on Iran:
- Israel’s military announced start of new “extensive wave” of strikes on Iran’s capital Tehran as Israel issued forced evacuation orders amid new attacks on Lebanon’s capital Beirut.
- Two people have been killed in Oman after the downing of a drone in Sohar province, Oman’s state news agency is reporting.
Even though this is from close to a full day ago, very little actual reporting can come out of Israel, so these France 24 updates are valuable. This one confirms that Iran has lived up to its promise of intensifying its campaign against Israel:
Far and away the most important tidbit from my quick notes is #4, that Israel officials are staring to signal that the war might go on for a year:
1. Casualties so far have low because civilians have been hunkering down in shelters
2. Strikes are up in last 24 hours
3. People have been told to go back to work, that they must use sick days if they are absent, but many can’t can’t due to kids, both due to many staying closed or being seen as too hazardous due to lack of shelters
4. Officials now signaling it may take a year to defeat Iran
5. Bibi might have a press conference (he did as we indicated above)
Due to the length of this post, we must mention this important, in-depth Larry Johnson piece in passing and urge you to read it at your leisure: Should Iran Build a Nuke… Game Theory Says Yes.
The Israel attack on Lebanon and Hezbollah’s forceful response are not getting the attention they warrant. Due to how multi-fronted this conflict is proving to be, forgive me for providing only short items. From the BBC live feed at 1:00 PM EDT yesterday:
Death toll in Lebanon rises to 687, health ministry says
The death toll in Lebanon has risen to 687 since 2 March, the Ministry of Public Health says.
That figure is up from 634 yesterday and includes 98 children and 62 women.
Officials say 1,774 people have been injured in the same period, including 304 children and 328 women.
From Vanessa Beeley in Operation civil war in Lebanon – the Zionist puppets within the government are attempting to turn Army against Resistance for Israel:
A serious political and institutional confrontation appears to be unfolding within the state structure of Lebanon, following reports that the head of the army, Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Rudolph Haykal, has refused to allow the military to be drawn into an internal confrontation.
According to circulating statements below attributed to Haykal, the army will not participate in any move that could ignite internal conflict or fracture Lebanese society. The position is widely interpreted as a rejection of pressure from the current political leadership to confront Hezbollah domestically.
This stance triggered alarm among factions within the current governing coalition. Political sources claim that external actors, particularly the United States, had already begun discussing three potential replacements for Haykal should he refuse to comply with demands to escalate internally.
If these reports are accurate, Lebanon may be entering a rare and extremely dangerous constitutional moment, where the chain of command between the political leadership and the military leadership becomes contested.
And thanks to information-sleuthing by Social Rhino and junkelly, from Iraqi Resistance warns al-Sharaa: Attack on Lebanon means war in AlMayadeen:
The Islamic Resistance Coordination Committee in Iraq warned Syria’s transitional leader Ahmad al-Sharaa against any hostile action toward Lebanon.
In a statement, the Committee cautioned al-Sharaa that any attack against Lebanon coordinated with the US-Zionist enemy, under any pretext, would be considered a declaration of war on the Axis of Resistance…
“The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which made US occupation forces suffer and left the bodies of ISIS fighters for the wolves of the valleys, is capable of crushing your movement if you become involved in attempts to target the resistance environment or Hezbollah…
“If you dare to violate the sovereignty of Lebanon and its patient, resisting people, we will turn your land into an open battlefield of fire,” the statement added.
We have given economic updates a comparatively short shrift and hope to turn to them more fully in the next day or so. A foretaste from a late-in-day Bloomberg story yesterday, Stocks Fall on War, Credit Worries as Oil Surges: Markets Wrap:
A renewed oil surge stoked fears the war in Iran will further crimp energy supplies and fuel inflation, spurring a slide in stocks, which were also hit by signs of distress in the $1.8 trillion private-credit market.
Brent held near $100 on shipment disruptions, with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, signaling no intention of ending the Strait of Hormuz closure. The S&P 500 lost 1%. Banks sank as redemption requests from private-credit funds forced Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC to cap withdrawals. Deutsche Bank AG flagged a $30 billion exposure to the sector….
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned that oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak if flows via Hormuz remain depressed through March. Brent rallied to a high of $147.50 that year. The Iran war is causing unprecedented turmoil in oil markets, hitting 7.5% of global supply and an even bigger swath of exports, the International Energy Agency said.
$147.50 in July 2008, per the CPI calculator, translates into a smidge over $219.00 in current dollars. We (and mony others) have not been able to monitor what is going on in the private credit market at all well because it is opaque by design. But that level of opacity can trigger even faster investor freakout when they finally realize that they have cause for concern, since they will not get enough information to calm their nerves (charitably assuming that thing are less dire than they appear).
In addition, analysts are now cutting their expectations of rate cuts due to the rising odds of higher inflation. This is a negative both for stock prices as well as interest rates and credit terms. On top of that, local communities are likely to rebel even harder against data center buildouts that put even more pressure on what were seen as unduly high electricity prices. These together may create the perfect storm of AI, generally seen as wildly overvalued, yet whose 2025 capex was attributed with generating as much as half of US GDP growht that year.
On the economic war front, reader Ann provided this sighting in comments. Note that Iran International is a diaspora publication in London, so this story amounts to an admission against interest From Iran International in Iran keeps oil flowing to China as Hormuz pressure forces reserve release :
Iran is still loading about 1.5 million barrels of crude a day in March while China is receiving about 1.25 million barrels daily, Kpler data show, even as days of Iranian pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and rising prices force consuming nations to tap emergency reserves.
The figures suggest Tehran’s oil lifeline has not been cut despite a widening maritime crisis that has already disrupted shipping and shaken energy markets since the war began on February 28.
Instead, the conflict is evolving into a prolonged contest over energy flows: Iran continues exporting oil – largely to China – while simultaneously applying military pressure on one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints.
Courtesy reader Ben Panga:
Trump’s Latest Truth Social:
We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise, yet, if you read the Failing New York Times, you would incorrectly think that we are not winning. Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth. We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time – Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today. They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
BP: He’s getting worse. Beyond the self-deluded hogwash, a bloodlust seems to be growing. It’s noticeabley more extreme.
Finally, this video is from yesterday, but this too important to miss. Daniel Davis at points channels Walter Cronkite.
We left material on the cutting room floor but feel we need to stop here. See you tomorrow!
___
1 Our reader raspberry jam watched it so you don’t have to. From comments yesterday:
I am taking immense psychic damage for the commentariat by watching the video with captions translated to English. I’m about three quarters of the way through but a few things stand out:
– a lot of references to acting on their own/making their own way to become a regional power; I think this “regional power without always having the backing of the US” position is going to be more prominent going forward
– a lot of emphasis on how Iran has been changed permanently
– he is extremely skilled at answering only a little bit of the question and then twisting the rest of the response back to his primary pointsI think this is the first time I’ve watched him do a lot of speaking in Hebrew and I have to admit he has a very specific and engaging style that, if one were unpracticed in reading intent vs projection, would come across as confident leadership. However I am practiced and to me he looks very worried and stressed (even with he Zoom appearance filter on).
okay having watched the entire speech now I think the most interesting part is the last reporter’s questions and not so much what Netanyahu says but how he reacts. This won’t come across in the transcript, it’s worth watching. It starts here, you can switch the captions to auto translate to English.
The first question is about a petition underway to have Ben Gvir removed. Here you see Netanyahu briefly drop the polished mask and then rein it back in; between the bullshit he says that he doesn’t think now is the time for this (because Israel is facing an existential crisis).
The second question is about the Witkoff visit and what he thinks about the possibility that Witkoff is coming to set a deadline or end date for the war. Here Netanyahu does something interesting, you briefly see body language that indicates he is genuinely nervous and/or worried. And he says something like “I hope I will always be happy to see Witkoff” but then stresses that the US does not issue dictates, the relationship is more of a partnership.
I get the impression the reporters are used to dealing with the slippery, bullshit responses and initially I was surprised by how many of the questions dealt with Trump’s comments on the pardon (one funny point was when a reporter asked if Netanyahu had told Trump that Herzog was a disgrace, putting the words in his mouth). But by the last question it made sense; I think everyone there is just as much aware of the role the trial is playing in the war and the news of the last day about a pardon not being recommended plus his reaction to the question about Ben Gvir makes me wonder if he is really nearing the last of his nine lives (so to speak) and if Witkoff does indeed tell him to end the war what he will do next to stay out of jail. Stop saying nukes, I think another Lebanon war is more likely!
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re. global economy.
Taiwam is the canary. On island, it has 11 days of LNG stockpiles v (90ish of oil). 50% of its electricity is LNG-sourced. 22 LNG shipments are planned for March – April (normal throughput). and this is have a de-nuclear-fission-electricity commitment in 2025.
1. The idea that Taiwan can survive even a short-term Taiwan v. mainland kerfuffle is a joke. 2. JP, KR, TW are all flat-footed after their post-Fukushima de-fission moves. Homer Simpson gets the last laugh and is back, baby!
Might this push them into China’s arms? I wonder if China has the capability to help them out in this way.
It has been pointed out in the past that Western fantasies of China ‘invading’ Taiwan are hysterics precisely because China would merely have to suppress their maritime traffic to choke their economy (same as any other island) and create conditions to dictate terms. But the prospect that China could instead come to their rescue vis-a-vis LNG is more in line with their ‘lead with a carrot’ approach. What can the West possibly offer by comparison?
As a province of China, Taiwan regains access to energy. Without they starve and die. And the US will not protect them or provide the energy they need. I do not need Game Theory to predict the outcome.
China is imo getting 1.24mbd from Iran, if requested by China Iran likely to allow as much as needed oil. Russia could shift lng to far east. And Iran might allow Qatari or itself to ship lng. Could be good time to be buddies with China/russia/Iran, not a great time to be buddies with west. Phillipines too might jump. I wonder what erdogan is thinking… he loves winners.
All I could see in my head when I read Trumps most recent post was the Mad King in Game of Thrones
“Burn them all!”
Lol…we’re getting to that point, aren’t we?
Keep in mind, that that crisis was resolved by a mutiny among the vassals…Robert’s rebellion.
I am reminded of King Louis XIV: “L’etat, c’est moi.” While the quote is apochryphal his behavior before his downfall is similar to that of Trump.
Excuse me but I think you are confusing your Louis’s. King Louis XIV of the famous “L’etat, c’est moi” died in bed at the age of 76.
Louis XVI literally lost his head.
Louis le grand did however make a mess of France due to his endless warmongering. Historian Pierre Goubert (a book translated as Louis XIV and 20 Million Frenchman) stated that France breathed a sigh of relief on the sun king’s passing
Oh, my, wrong number. Thanks for the correction.
It’s looking real bad. I’m genuinely shocked that so many informed people are so blissfully unaware of the real consequences of closing the Strait; of course, I myself had no idea how much the world was dependent on it (for sulfuric acid, fertilizer, and many other crucial things), but at this point, when it’s clear that the closure is not ending any time soon, every analyst should be quite well aware of the consequences.
I recall a couple of days ago the discussion about insurance and how it was in the end overblown, since the companies did manage to figure out how to price it, but there is no such solution for the fact that a third of the world supply of extremely important inputs is gone for the foreseeable future. And I suspect that we’re only going to see the real consequences a few months down the line, when stockpiles run out and production gets completely ruined in a lot of places. We’re in for a rough couple of years, at least (though I expect something more like an “Arab spring” upheaval).
As always, thanks for the updates, I haven’t been able to follow it as closely these past few days (despite the absolutely crazy state of affairs, life does go on), and NC is my trusted source for anything I might have missed.
ironically, most of the first- world countries having >60 days of oil led to this complacency.
The West has plenty of oil that precludes 1970-style shortages,(if you are willing to endure discretionary demand destruction). It’s everything else, lmao. especially LNG, post-Russia cutoff. then throw in “just-in-time” supply chains, even post-2022.
just-in-time is a form of financial leverage and temporal leverage. and leverage amplifies outcomes in both directions
Good morning.
Neoliberalism is the US’s Achilles heel.
Max Blumethal on Judge Napolitano’s show comments that T and his cronies are making money off moving the oil price with statements made to move oil prices, in Max’s opinion.
This clip starts at the 10:00 minute mark of the show. Max’s comments about T and his cronies apparently cashing on the war lasts about 3 minutes.
Max Blumenthal : Trump’s War: Bombing a School and $8 a Gallon Gasoline
https://youtu.be/D7CgBbErUsE?t=600
The insurance problem is not solved. I have no idea why Mercogliano keeps saying it is. I admit to being remiss in not returning to this issue in my updates.
I linked to S&P; See from March 9:
https://www.mmwr.com/doubts-emerge-about-trumps-marine-war-insurance-plan/
And the Wall Street Journal on March 11:
Lloyd’s insists that there is no need for the Trump scheme, which also contradicts Mercogliano depicting the Trump program as a successful fix. So I think he is out of his league. See more form the Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/finance/u-s-plan-to-unblock-strait-of-hormuz-collides-with-realities-of-global-insurance-feec54c6
The comments from brokers in the Financial Times earlier had a whistling-past-the-graveyard quality, as in “Oh yes we can find cover when we look really really hard.” And reading between the lines, no way no how is the UK going to let the US into their market even if it could play a productive role, which given what a napkin-doodle the Trump scheme is, seems unlikely So I read the amount of war risk cover that might be available as meager but that has not been tested due to carriers not moving.
Makes sense. I was actually thinking specifically of the piece written by Shanaka Perera which spelled total doom for insurance companies, but I had gathered that it was apparently somewhat overblown (I haven’t watched Mercogliano yet). I’ll admit it seemed a bit surprising that Lloyd’s and the like had managed to solve what seemed like an unsolvable problem (how do you price a very small unpredictable chance of crossing just fine?) but since it’s not my expertise, I figured there must be a trick I’m not privy to.
What it looks like, in fact, is that everyone is kinda trying to look the other way until the problem somehow solves itself, and no hard choices have to be made. The Trump scheme seems to be pretty much impossible at any reasonable timeframe (and would captains and companies really be fine with risking sinking their ships so long as they get the insurance payout by the US Govt? I’d imagine they kinda need those ships floating if they want their business to go on after the war is over).
I am still not quite “got that figured out” on the insurance issue.
Presuming a magic wand is waved and insurance appears, at reasonable prices. Does that stop Iran from sinking ships that try to run the Strait? How does that work – do the insurance dec pages cover the vital bits of the ship and bounce missiles and drones and prevent boarding? If so, we should insure Navy ships, making them impregnable in wartime… Or is it that there is an international convention that prohibits sinking insured vessels?
Maybe the theory is that if ships are insured they’d be willing to all line up in a fleet/mob formation and race for the other side of the Strait? The survivors can lather/rinse/repeat, while the new reef owners can celebrate if/when their checks arrive?
It seems like the whole insurance issue is almost a bit of a red herring…
/prophylactic /sarc/ tag, just in case. Though … facetious? Funny? Semi-serious?
Along with another sidebar of thanks to Yves, of course!
The current point of view is that the insurance problem was solved but it is irrelevant because ship owners are too worried about being sunk to try to go through the Strait.
I am questioning whether the insurance problem has been solved. From what I can tell, the Trump scheme is not operative and not likely to be in any realistic time frame. Lloyds carriers are making noises that they have things under control to keep the US from invading their market. But since no one is asking for war risk cover now, and when they were, it was only kinda sorta ovailable, I have my doubts.
I’d absolutely agree … I had seen that “insurance solved, still doesn’t fix the problem of ‘no ship anymore.'” mentioned somewhere else – likely here. Unless a shipper’s looking to get out of the business, maybe? Heavily ensure some old rustbuckets, install drone/robot controls to avoid crew loss issues, and just send them through for target practice.
Profit. ;-)
I watch Sal. I think a lot of these guys buy their own BS and think that big battleships can win it! It’s a safe position to keep you employed in the US. Stay with the herd.
No one with a ship believes that the US can protect them from a hostile Iran. Not even the US Navy.
I don’t think the UK has any objection to the US setting capital on fire by, for example, providing war risk retrocessional cover to the reinsurers so that British insurers can write policies and then reinsure them. Many of the big reinsurers are foreign so no Britons would be harmed in the making of this market. :-)
Plus creating a “market of one” for war risk retrocessional insurance is hardly displacing private business. If the US continues, great; if the US pulls out, great.
This is not what I have heard from my contacts.
I think one of the reasons the market hasn’t yet freaked out appropriately is the fragmentation and information siloing of America. I think a bunch of retail investors really don’t get reality yet because their information stream is so distorted.
Others who should know better are clinging to denial and reliance on Trump‘s history of taco because the alternative, that Iran really has the upper hand and is going to crash the global economy, is just too much for them to accept.
I would also like to know if committed billionaires like the Adelson‘s could be engaging in market manipulation to encourage Trump. I don’t know if they have any capacity to do so because I’m not sophisticated enough on how the markets work.
On another note, the fact that the Michigan synagogue attack was retaliation, not instigation should terrify all of us.
we have classic reflexivity (a/k/a self-fufilling cycle, feedback loop, doom loop, etc).
CNBC, Bloomberg cite “credentialed” people who got us into this mess, “experts” cite Bloomberg, LLM cites experts; experts cite LLM; LLM cites Bloomberg (cuz NC is “fringe”and likely on some list, lmao)
Emperor’s new clothes transmitted at light spèed.
The Empire working towards it’s Amazon AI style self liquidation.
Looks like T is running to get in front of a parade if this RT story is accurate. (I doubt countries will wait for T’s “permission” to buy the oil they need. / ;)
US eases Russian oil sanctions
The temporary measure is expected to cool global energy markets as crude prices continue to soar after US-Israeli attacks on Iran
https://swentr.site/business/634741-russian-oil-us-sanction-lifted/
Agreed on the “getting ahead of the parade” observation. Though … has Russia not been able to sell all the oil it wants, regardless of the “sanctions?” I’m not sure that the US “giving permission” is going to make much difference… ;-)
[Comment removed because AI]
farmboy, if you EVER do this again, you will be blacklisted. We have ZERO tolerance for AI.
The U.S. will turn on us, Canada, plus Greenland and Venezuela, to force assimilation. They will try, anyway, with unintended consequences.
I would really appreciate a Reuters link for this important development.
here you go:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-ignites-iran-war-gulf-arab-states-pay-price-gulf-sources-say-2026-03-11/
You have done an excellent job of outlining the Iranian war strategy, which is going according to plan, whereas the US had no strategy – just tactics, and so it keeps trying new tactics. Air bombing of civilians has never led to regime change.
AI slop
Yeah, seriously, don’t do this. If you can’t make your point without AI slop we don’t need to read it. I have been noticing these ai edited comments creeping in.
Thank you for this valuable post. I can only add that the Gulf States must also be thinking that not only can’t the US protect them, due in part because US air defense technology sucks, but also that when this war is over Iran will still be there with its 90 million well educated people and that they developed such effective missile and drone technology while under some of the most crushing sanctions any country has had to face.
Surely, after this war is over Iran will be in a much stronger position, likely with Russia’s and China’s backing, and they will still be just minutes away from Iran’s missiles. So, maybe it’s just better to get along with your neighbors than trust the mercurial leadership of the US. Too bad Ukraine didn’t figure this out.
One thing that’s being revealed to the Gulf States right now is just exactly whose interests the US is serving. I don’t think it was quite as clear before that the US is 100% serving Israel’s interests.
Historically, that would not have been welcome news to the various kingdoms; now that Israeli leaders have shown themselves to be rabid psychotics who would be happy to kill everyone in the world if they could only do it, that news must be less welcome than it ever would have been.
Anyone who has had it cross their mind that they might one day need protection from Israel (which I assume includes every political leader in West Asia) is doubtless finding it a good time to head for the exits.
this may indeed have originally been AI, but was posted as an article here:
https://www.coreinsightsintl.com/post/op-ed-the-united-states-just-lost-the-entire-middle-east-the-u-s-dollar-is-done-but-nobody-is-t
I found this and then checked the reuters quote per earlier post
It’s hard to overestimate how valuable is the NC coverage of the Iran War. I totally agree the Iran War has the potential to become a full blown economic and foreign policy disaster. At this point in time, I can only add that we should recall the elite phrase, ‘Never let a good crisis go to waste’
Though Bush was a problem and Obama disappointed, I’m not sure if the country is prepared for a crisis with Trump in the WH. Not only is Trump in denial, he also fantasizes, plus he is personally wealthy and heavily invested in the market, including ME projects, as well as craving adulation. I think once wounded by reality, there’s no telling what he is capable of. Suddenly, for example, he claims emergency powers nobody ever heard of and we’re off to never-never land: Think Medicare is cancelled, Trump’s family corp gets a personal bailout, and nukes are an option, just for starters. In other words, recall another phrase, ‘Keep your powder dry’ we may need a pre-emptive strike on the executive branch.
This. I was just thinking about this earlier how shortages in a few months can provide the perfect cover for rationing and, hence, CBDCs going live.
“…a preemptive strike on the executive branch.” When it becomes obvious to Vance and others, will they have the ability and courage to invoke the 25th Amendment? Those hardliners around Trump, who regard him as a willing dupe, will fight to the last to stay in power, and keep him on the throne. The palace intrigue is likely to get far messier than we’ve ever seen. It would be nice to think Vance is capable of seeing reality, and decides to do so. But it seems a slender reed at this juncture.
Any national triage that fixes the Trump problem, even if it results in Vance being president, won’t be led by Vance. Vance doesn’t have enough followers to engineer a two-car funeral.
Pondering this a bit.
I would throw the bunch around Trump into three buckets.
Ideologues: Mueller, Rubio, maybe Wiles
Flunkies: Bondi, Noem, Patel, Bongino, Hegseth, Vance
Representatives: Lutnick, Bessent, maybe Gabbard
The first group wants something done, the second wants to be important (and has been promoted over their wildest dreams) and the third represents important groups. Lutnick and Bessent represents the oligarchs, if Gabbard represents the security state she is in this group.
The only group with the motive and wherewithal to mount a coup is the third one. Lutnick and Bessent could have a meeting with fellow oligarchs (like Thiel and Musk, especially if he still has his Doge network in place) and decide that Vance must replace Trump.
The flunkies can be bought or strong armed. The problem is the first group, in particular Mueller. He probably needs to be indisposed to avoid a counter coup attempt (the president firing cabinet members who would vote to declare him unfit to serve).
Oh, I just heard a mention on some podcast that Mueller moved onto a military base. If true, that could reflect some paranoia.
Just to be clear: I don’t think this will happen, just pondering how it could happen.
I meant Miller, not Mueller
Don’t know why it got germanified in my mind.
FWIW this Pravda link says surviving tanker landed at Tel Aviv with half its vertical stabilizer missing.
https://news-pravda.com/world/2026/03/13/2151838.html
However that Pravda site seems to be little more than links to web gossip so not definitive.
Lord Bebo published a picture of the plane’s tail last night. The portion of the tail above the rudder was gone. I don’t see how that would just “come off” due to lack of maintenance, but I am no aircraft mechanic.
This means 2 of our 11 or so mid air refuelers are gone. If this keeps up much longer we will lose the ability to refuel flights, which will greatly affect our operations in the area.
Presumably in a mid-air collision with the aircraft that went down
Are you serious? Pray tell, tell me how often two similar-sized planes, both full of fuel, have collided and one crashed, while the other was so undamaged as to be able to land normally? The other tanker returned safely to Israel.
Military airplanes often have collisions while flying in formation. The flight crews may have been fatigued.
I did not question colliding. I questioned one being completely destroyed and the other landing as normal with no report of harm to the plane or injury to its crew. Please provide an example where this has happened.
I can’t find a no damage example. All surviving aircraft had damage.
Part of my response was that I have read many accounts of damage during formation flying. Fly-By-Wire airplanes, such as 1970 era and later fighter designs tend to be more tolerant of damage. Most formation damage is on the wings. (I have been reading Aviation Week & Space Technology and Air Force magazines since the 1960s.)
When I tried to find examples of larger airplanes, since I had read and heard (Mil-Brat) of B-52 collisions, same-to-same collisions usually took out both airplanes. C/KC-135, C-130, C-141, P-3, also showed this pattern.
Most other collisions are mismatched airplanes, many during airborne refueling.
A KC-135 can refuel another KC-135 – so close proximity is not unknown – it is not unheard for only one aircraft to go down in a mid air collision – see Hainan Island incident,
This is Making Shit Up. I asked for a case of a collision where one plane crashed and the other was able to land as usual, which means either un or minimally damaged.
The Hainan Island incident involved US and Chinese jets in a hostile incident. It has NOTHING TO DO with refueling
And BOTH planes were damaged, one destroyed and the other had to make an emergency landing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
This is not on point and you are misinforming readers.
I also take offense at having to waste my time on cleaning up after your informational messes.
The landed aircraft was damaged
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/13/world/video/iran-war-us-plane-tail-damage-vrtc
Seems like pretty serious damage – and it was an emergency landing.
Aviation nerd explanation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elkutLRwKug
So I retract my original theory about the aircraft were refueling
My guess is the aeroplanes were flying in close formation (one preparing to refuel the other?) *and* they came under enemy fire. The KC-135 allegedly has no flares as countermeasures. So one ‘plane takes sudden evasive action and clips the other ‘plane. One of the two limps home and the other crashes….
1973 Nantes mid-air collision– not often, but not never
No, off point. One plane crashed. The other made an emergency landing with the left wing damaged, at a military base when it was a commercial plane.
Here, the second plane flew back to the base in Israel. No evidence it was harmed.
Johnson says the first plane here was hit by a missile and the second performed a successful evasive maneuver.
Here’s Juan Brown going over this on his YT channel:
KC-135R Mid Air Collision 12 Mar 2026
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elkutLRwKug
Conjecture is both tankers were in a common refueling track and a collision occurred at some point for reasons unknown (which could include some form of anti-aircraft action.)
I should be clear that the part in the parenthesis about anti-aircraft actions is my addition, not speculation by the YT channel.
This site which is getting a lot more Iranian news than we are accepts the claim that the K-135s were both hit by a “loitering drone.”
https://indi.ca/ramadan-war-falling-planes/
However if Iran is really capable of doing that you’d have to ask why after a week more planes haven’t come down over Iraq.
Big slow refueling planes that have become complacent after a week are easier to hit than small fast fighter-bombers? Plus loitering drone needs to be in “right place/right time” mode.
If these tankers were hit by hostiles, and Western Iraq is deemed unsafe for refueling missions, this could have a very big effect on the reach of the USAF into Iran.
I’ve been watching the lines of them at ADSb exchange.
That’s gotta be a big reason that jet fuel spiked.
Interestingly CNN’s main page has this contradictory headline for this story as of this writing:
“The US military said the incident was ‘not due to hostile fire.’ A second plane was damaged but later landed safely.”
This is coupled with video from Ben Gurion Airport showing plane with the damaged stabilizer. ‘Western Media Passive Voice’ in full effect.
Here is my go to guy about the kc135 planes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=elkutLRwKug&pp=2AEAkAIB
But what we dont know is a way longer list than what we know.
We don’t know, if they were done with their refueling trip and heading back or on station. We dont know if it was a midair accident by mistake or did were they manuvering to get away from missiles or drones and hit each other. We know very little.
We do know the surviving plane had some damage that wasn’t bad enough to allow it to fly and land safely. We know the refueling boom is in its normal retracted position meaning no damage from a refueling incident. While the crew of the plane will know for sure what happened, I don’t know if we will hear their report on the incident.
Hopefully more details will follow.
I linked to the same video. I agree with your assessment. I would assume too that this is a pretty heavily “observed” environment (i.e. radars from both sides are on and watching) so the military on both sides probably have a pretty good picture of what happened, but that sort of information most likely will be kept from the public for a long time.
Agreed. Should add the incident took place 9pm local time meaning dark and the planes are probably flying without marking lights so all sorts of bad things can happen in that environment.
No one has mentioned if they were flying under the watch of essentially ATC?
I would assume yes, check Flightradar, an AWACS is there.
A reasonable evidence-free guess is that pilots in both planes probably have flying for days without rest, but plenty of Provigil (anti-narcolepsy med).
Mistakes were bound to happen.
You’ve got the same Janta Ka Reporter video embedded twice. I think the second one was intended to be this one:
Trump isolated on Iran as oil prices soar; big confession by Netanyahu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2jx_-wcNh8&pp=0gcJCcUKAYcqIYzv
Yes have just corrected. Apologies.
No apologies needed. Just doing my part.
writing simply to express a massive ongoing thanks to you, Yves.
Me likewise.
All of you, don’t forget to take some time off and relax, perhaps make a leisurely stroll to the next black market and buy half a gallon of gasoline = HAGOG (mix of havoc and Magog)
Add me in too in expressing thanks to you, Yves.
The amount of work that you are putting in to informing us is phenomenal and very much appreciated. There is nothing like this site anywhere else; rational, informed, comprehensive and bs free.
It’s very strange markets are showing such a dulled, complacent reaction.
1) There’s got to be manipulation going on, beyond Administration tricks and games like SPR releases and naval escort talk.
2) Is there a cultural/mental problem with markets where they’re used to having the Fed step in to save them and players involved have lost a grip on the idea that real world things can break and the government can’t easily fix it?
3) Does this mean that tension is being stored up, and the snap-back to reality is going to be even harder and more chaotic?
Regarding the hardness and chaos, perhaps a small-ish bright side is that the next year may, perhaps, drive a multi-decade stake into the heart of Milton Friedman’s claim that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”.
Given that resource scarcity is almost certainly a central feature of the future of civilization, perhaps useful lessons will be learned.
That’s never going to happen. It’s a mistake thinking this is about having better ideas. There’s too much money and power continuing to back this broken mode of thinking. This faction is immune to facts.
Relegating bad libertarian ideas to the margins requires political victory over those forces.
The manipulation campaign is, in my estimate, the systemic outcome of the Mighty Wurlitzer project our Three Letter Agencies embarked on 80 years ago.
The systematic structuring of disinformation has placed “the successful” in the West in an information environment where the cognitive dissonance is at the Wiley Coyote level, particularly those in our erstwhile markets, which have been an increasingly managed affair since Greenspan.
To yield to the implications of the facts now randomly intruding on their bubble is too disturbing and so resisted so long as other surfaces of the bubble hold their shape, but the reality intrusions are only building, so “the snap-back to reality is going to be even harder and more chaotic”, no ? mark necessary.
Normalcy bias. We saw it in the GFC and we saw it in the pandemic (look, they are building hospitals overnight in Wuhan, how interesting, Dow up 0.1% you say…?).
I chaired an audit committee meeting today and told everybody that in my view the new FY26 budget would be a slight miss so add some contingency but that FY27 would be wild with commodity-push inflation. Blank stares came back – it will all be over by Easter….
In 2008 they outlawed new short selling, at least of banks, very irritating at the time. If market goes tits up we might see that again, or maybe some new ideas.
And that did not help contain the fall in stock prices.
Repeat after me: shorting does not make stock prices fall. There is absolutely nothing operational in shorting that can do that.
It is the informational content of the short, the shorts making their case that the stock in question sucks so that other investors sell.
Sometimes complacency doesn’t make it through the weekend. Weekends are the best time for evildoers to catch the general public off guard. Just a thought from a possibly paranoid observer.
My only recommendation for all is to spend time exercising, even just long walks, to physically and emotionally destress.
Doomscrollin’ every minute I’m awake
Really is that video a fake?
I can’t imagine anything that’s better
The world is compressed when we’re together
There ain’t a thing I’d like to do instead of
Movin’ finger all around the screen
Doin’ until my gills are turnin’ green
There’s always lots of news that I can see
I can see anyone I like to see
And all those lying people I could meet just
Doomscrollin’ push on through the afternoon
Really gotta put it down and soon
No, no, no, no
I’ll keep on wasting sunny days this way
I’m gonna scroll and click my time away
I feel it coming closer day by day
Life would be ecstasy, if my blood pressure don’t kill me
Doomscrollin’ every minute I’m awake
Really is that video a fake?
No, no, no, no
Doomscrollin’ (uh huh, uh huh)
Doomscrollin’
Groovin’
by The Young Rascals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA4N5BNMjew
I think this is down to people’s experience, which is built on what has happened in the past.
A similar slow response happened at the beginning of the GFC.
The great majority of US working people in 2007 were used to perpetual booming years, easy credit and US military adventurism that diminished, looted or destroyed other countries. To them, this was the natural order of things and so would continue into the future.
And the people who could have sounded notes of caution, who had had to raise families through the Depression and fight in WWII, were mostly dead or in care homes, so not credible to the younger decision makers.
When the experience of decision makers is that the US has always been militarily mighty and can enforce obedience (eg Venezuela, Syria, Libya etc), then anything else is unthinkable. It looks like Trump thinks this, that when the US wants something, then TINA.
Trump has never suffered from lack of food or housing, or seeing one of his children killed in war. He expects that, as has always happened for him, he will get what he wants with a bit of a fight and some chicanery. And there are enough similarly deluded people around him.
Whereas the Iranian people of today are the ones who have survived through decades of deprivation, threats, seeing their children die of preventable or treatable disease, being slandered across the world. They have no such illusions. And they have seen what happened to Libya and Syria and Palestine, all now enjoying the fruits of “democracy”.
A great lot of inertia accumulated in this fat, sclerotic machine. For now, it’s always easier to do nothing. Later, we over-react for failure to act incisively in the now.
The one thing I don´t get–and perhaps it’s not so easy–is why Iran hasn´t just landed one in a population center. I get that that triggers a hellish onslaught. But when and if that happens, it seems to me, the public outcry against Netanyuhu and Trump. . . really might spell their political doom.
The France Presse dispatches from Tel Aviv are powerful. Have been sharing with some old Jewish Habonim Dror friends, who I have felt remained in some denial. I thank goodness every day that my Jewish uncle was anti-Zionist.
That Sal Mercogliano may know a lot about shipping but he should really talk to an experienced naval officer to understand that naval escorts are only possible when all Iranian firepower has been suppressed along that entire coastline which is an impossible venture. Even Iranian artillery would be able to sink any ships trying to make a run for it. Didn’t stop Trump saying that those tanker captains should show some guts and just charge through that Strait. It would be easier to bull’s-eye womp rats in a canyon as they’re not much bigger than two meters.
I’ve watched Sam Mercogliano off and on since the Baltimore bridge collapse. He comes across to me as a Trump guy, which is not at all surprising, really. He’s not overt about it, but you can tell his slant. He’s knowledgeable and provides important information and insights, but you can’t lose sight of his bias.
Agree with your assessment. Ernest Trumper. A delicate flower. He’s been hoping someone will finally tell the king to get better advisors
Perhaps The Don means ships’ crews should ‘show some guts’ by getting themselves blown up in the Strait. He would surely volunteer himself if not for his bone spurs.
Not just along the coastline – several Iranian anti-ship missiles have a range of 300 km, so just to be sure they have to suppress Iranian firepower 250 km inland from the coast.
Of course, should that happen, Iran would likely destroy every oil terminal, every oil storage, every oil pumping station, every oil refinery and every oil well in the region before the first tanker reaches the trait.
I don’t have exact details but I think he served as a 2nd mate (CVMAR) in the USN Military Sealift Command prior to going back to school and becoming a professor.
I got the sense he was frustrated because he was being contacted by panicked shippers who wanted to know what to do which is why he listed off all the people to contact in the US gov.
[Removed because AI]
US bases in the GCC were never meant to protect these monarchies from external threats but from domestic uprising. But even this objective they are now failing badly because the economic upheaval makes insurrections much more likely now AND those bases are not even operational any more. So a failure by every metric.
There’s all that and Israel might be thankful they weren’t on the receiving end of more hits for the moment.
You can tell this is also written with AI, which impacts its credibility imo.
Since farmboy normally comments primarily on various farming-related issues, and that this post is the second one after a warning, I would wonder if either someone else is posting as farmboy or the email was hacked. Seems uncharacteristic.
No, it’s the same person.
And he has been commenting on non-farm topics.
Much of what we read right now is at least AI “assisted”. I suggest not shooting the messenger, and instead examine the message.
What does the US have to offer its “partners” at this exact point in time? The dollar’s international status is imploding in real time. Most of our weapons available on the market are second best. US security guarantees are a joke. Thus we arrive at a moment when (GCC) survival instincts kick in. If the threat of a nuclear strike is eliminated (admittedly a big if), I suggest that the content of the post will come to pass.
ps, farmboy has been a solid commenter, granted agriculture tends to be his/her wheelhouse.
> Much of what we read right now is at least AI “assisted”. I suggest not shooting the messenger, and instead examine the message.
This is an excellent point, at this point. Son_2 is a programmer, Daughter_1 was/is an exec assistant (Boeing)/Director Ops/consultant. On the one, she has a huge heart, working with (sometimes neurodiverent) leadership to create psychological safe spaces in startups. On t’other, Son-2’s friend noted she’s using Claude in her writings. I’ma trust her review skills so that what she wants said is said.
It also goes to the nipping at Yves over AI sightings. First, there is relevance (see raspberry jam on Netanyahu using visual enhancement in his zoom meeting). Then whether it’s evidentiary or artistic, and the spectrum between (see MSM). Does critical thinking begin with content analysis of words and numbers? But presentation absolutely influences the receivers frame. And too much reflection is a technique of korinthenkackers: see How To Deconstruct Almost Anything.
Thanks, and I agree with that second paragraph.
🇨🇳 陈杰森 Jason Chen
Dr. JiHoon Park | IQ 312
@JinWooIQ
Noticed the same patterns in these posts with all the same ALARMS!!! 💀💀💀🚨🚨🚨
Yves, the same Janta Ka clip is embedded twice in case you want to adjust. Thanks for another excellent rundown.
sorry, will correct. He did have two.
Could a GCC energy embargo halt the US-Israel war on Iran?
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-gcc-energy-embargo-could-halt-us-israel-iran-war
The GCC possesses a radical, unconventional, and highly effective tool to force an end to the hostilities; a collective and complete halt of all oil and gas exports.
Ummm…. Iran has already implemented that (and with the Houthis will complete) and it has not ended the war. The GCC do not have agency unless they switch allegiance to Iran and request Russian/Chinese/Iranian protection and bases.
It has been reported that the Saudis are trying to move crude oil and refined products via are pipeline across the country to the port of Yanbu, on the Red Sea. Not clear yet how that is going to work.
If substantial numbers of tankers headed through the Straits are going to China, that would remove some demand from the world market. Once again, it is not clear that will happen, but these are cases that could mean a less than a total embargo.
To your first observation, I recall reading here that the Saudi pipeline(s?) don’t have much extra capacity, reducing the amount of surplus oil etc that can be transported this way.
Post now complete. Please refresh this page if you arrived before the time of this comment and reskim. Further updates will be in comments.
Sal Macogliano also pointed out that Iran has many oil tankers in it’s own fleet. The US has form in boarding and confiscating tankers. How would Iran survive without a means to export oil? Which also leads me to wonder how mining the Straits would only deny non-Iranian vessels.
iran can survive longer with no oil exports than Dubai wifh no water, or israel with constant brown-outs.
israel makes semi chips. semi factories can’t function amidst brownouts
Yves and Larry Johnson have already pointed out how certain countries are very exposed in this crisis because a large percentage of their energy and fertilizer imports go through the Strait of Hormuz. Certain Asian countries get >80% of LNG from the Gulf countries. Strangely, I have not heard how Israel itself may suffer disproportionately. As Louis Fyne says, those chip fabs and data center require massive amounts of stable energy. Where is Israel getting its oil and coal? Its fertilizer and industrial chemicals? I presume Israel’s economy is geared towards tech (surveillance) and defense (well, military offensive ordnance) and not agriculture and mining. Israel likely has strategic reserves of oil, but won’t they soon have difficulty flying their sophisticated jet planes and powering their war machinery?
If we’re talking chips, Qatar is the source for a large fraction of the world’s *traded* helium (the US is a larger producer but consumes almost all of it). The Qatari gas fields are particularly rich in it (but still in trace amounts).
Helium is vital as a purge, inerting and carrier gas in semiconductor manufacture. It is also vital in cryogenic applications, e.g. MRI machines. I think I read that South Korea either buys 60% of Qatari helium or satisfies 60% of its demand with Qatari helium.
No helium, no chips or party balloons….
Russia is another major producer. Oops..
And to whom is Iran transporting the oil? I don’t see the Chinese responding favorably to their oil getting confiscated…an easy response would be an immediate halt to gallium and rare earth magnet exportation = no soup for you to America’s MIC.
Does anyone see a realistic way on how Trump can back out even if he would want to do so?
Because I don’t see Iran accepting a ceasefire without serious assurances that this won’t just happen again in a few months.
And those types of assurances seem to be very difficult to provide even if the political will existed.
About the only way I can see for Trump to claim some kind of win is if Putin steps in and brokers a peace deal between Israel, Iran and Lebanon to stop attacking each other, or else Russia will intervene against the attacker (with provisions to verify that the attacks are not false flag operations). And maybe have the US, China and Turkey as signatories on the enforcement. But only after the war continues for another week to ten days and the desperation starts to set in on “our” side. Mostly it’s in Russia’s interest to see that nukes are not used by anyone else. The quid pro quo for “us” would have to be some type of Russian intervention in the energy markets to stabilize prices. But maybe this is a harebrained idea.
How much stomach will Russia have for enmeshing itself in a peace deal with a country that already backstabbed it in the Minsk accords?
Trump and Israel have blown up a lot of ‘peace’ tables. Literally. With the same people at the table.
Who in their right mind sits down at that table?
ironically, the world is awash in oil. pre-war, the oil futures were barely above break-even rates for many producers.
in 2008, oil reached $140-ish; that’s $210-ish in CPI bucks today.
but now given the precariat balance sheets (cost of liviing) of the bottom 60%, even $100 oil today is a big blow, perhaps as big as $120 to $140 in 2008
I think you mean $67-ish in 2008
I don’t like scolding but no, you are dead wrong and I have that in the updated post.
It peaked at $147.50 in July. I traded it as close to perfectly as I ever have traded anything and got out IIRC at $143, which is hard to do if you are not using futures.
What I meant was that if 140 in 2008 is equivalent to 210 in 2026, then 100 in 2026 is equivalent to 67 in 2008. LF’s point was that inflation for the bottom 60% is worse than overall inflation, but algebraically, there it is.
Oh, I see. Sorry!
There was a recent article on Reuters roughly saying that a decade ago 60% of new-car buyers in the USA had incomes under $100,000, and now it is only 30% since normal people can’t afford a new car. The average selling price of a new car is now $50,000 and there are only a few models under $30,000. The used-car market is therefore under pressure too. Decent used cars cost 80% of the price of a new car, it seems. So the accustomed mobility is already strained. Now add a large increase in fuel price…
Remember Obama’s Cash for Clunkers program? I bet that that drained a lot of perfectly good cars out of the country that might be still in service today.
It did. I follow several car guys on YouTube and the aftereffects of Cash for Clunkers really hurt the US used car market. IIRC, this was one of the better videos on the topic: https://youtu.be/HZAhq375Wmw?si=wbFtfQI3PXOZ1-Mt
Financialization causes stupid, like destroying real assets to save companies’ balance sheets.
true, in the Clunkers case, as I see it, the targets were manufactured…and then presumably sold to…shall we say…the financialization’s board of directors…who in-turn had the ear of DC
My mother junked her perfect fine, exquisitely maintained car, but a V-8 with 200,000 miles, because of Cash For Clunkers, as the rebate was more than the trade-in value of the car.
And of course, the program debuted 2 weeks after I bought her a set of 4 new tires, lmao.
So a perfectly good teenager car, got junked for pure eco-Keynesian fundamentalism
I too noticed that the cost of oil isn’t particularly high by historical standards. But,
It will go higher,
And there will also be shortages with natural gas, sulfuric acid, helium, etc.
Part of the point of Yves’ post this morning, I think, is that oil prices are being currently suppressed by hopium of US superiority. How high will they go? I don’t think anybody knows.
Hegseth just said”Iran’s leadership is hiding underground, cowering – that’s what rats do.”
I just saw on RT video the Iranian president Pezeshkian and foreign minister Aragachi walking in public today during the Quds day march.
I think that for a lot of people, particularly the fox news crowd, this war is kind of like a sports match. They’re currently cheering for the superiority of their favorite team, and if they even see a minor glitch they blame the referees for being biased (e.g. the media). That’s how people are conditioned. I’m afraid to think of how much it may take to break that conditioning.
I would like to trademark the following with the end of Pete’s press conference just a few minute agoPersian Pete (TM). It is original but I must bend my knee to whomever trade marked Bagdahd Bag. That earlier meme had and still has legs today even though it entered service more than 20 years ago. No tanks in the background, an appropriate background would be a still photo of the murdered children on Day !.
“Pentagon Pete”?
I take my hat off to you or perhaps as Martyanov would say — yes – “by an order of magnitudes”.
Pentagram Pete?
“Pe[c]te Hegseth”.
I can’t make the wordplay work, but there’s something there based on his college football career as a defensive back. A white DB is a concussion magnet.
“Early symptoms of chronic traumatic encephalopathy may not be noticeable at first.
They may include:
mood changes, such as depression or suicidal thoughts
personality changes
behaviour changes, such as aggression and mood swings
As the condition gets worse, you’ll have more noticeable problems with thinking and memory.
Symptoms include:
short-term memory loss
confusion, such as getting lost or not knowing what time of day it is
difficulties with planning and organisation
problems with movement
Symptoms usually start gradually, often around 10 years after having repeated head injuries”
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/chronic-traumatic-encephalopathy/
So now Hegseth is referring to Iranians as vermin, dehumanizing them openly and publicly, encouraging others to do the same.
War 101. It is essential that the opponent be dehumanized – , whatever – otherwise you start getting people at the front line starting to think that they have more in common with the guy on the other side of the wire than with the folks back in the capitol. That leads to things like the Christmas Truce:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_truce
Better version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPdHkHslFIU
I’m sure that Pentagon Pete is gnashing his teeth wishing that the Iranians would have the courtesy to actually invade somewhere so he could get the complaisant MSM to start printing stories about babies being tossed on bayonets or dumped out of incubators.
[family blogging]
Just checking what I messed up … probably wrong punctuation. :)
I meant to say “- [family blogging pejoratives]” rather than taking the risk of typing them out….
Rifat Jawaid showed a clip of Trump talking about a nation of terror and hate that is paying a big price right now. It’s striking how many people I hear in media talking about themselves like this. Makes me wonder how many out there in the almost disenfranchised Western democracies notice the same thing.
Your take on the cognitive dissonance—Wasn’t the same just on display at the UN and SC Resolution language?
Pinch me…
Pffttt, Secretary of War Hegseth told us not to worry about it…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-hegseth.html
Why would he lie to us? Sarcasm off
Iran War Cost Tracker – Live estimate of US Taxpayer and other costs of Epic Fury
https://iran-cost-ticker.com/
I highly recommend Patricia Marins on X. She is a military analyst from Brazil and her analysis and prognostications have been extremely on the mark so far. She estimates it will cost $300 Billion for three months of war in total costs. @pati_marins64
Meaningless for a Fed that can print trillions whenever the oligarchy has a need. You would think Covid showed this. The US will print infinite money to continue a war, but nothing to solve hunger or homelessness in the US. The US oligarchy will NEVER make a choice based on cost to the US treasury.
The actual measure is irreplaceable munitions at any cost because the Fed cannot print Chinese rare earths.
>The US oligarchy will NEVER make a choice based on cost to the US treasury.
Perhaps, but continued devaluing of the currency without a corresponding increase in wages can only be ignored for so long. Eventually the masses will start grumbling and demanding change
The FED can print armaments of a sort.
I remember the humor columnist of the San Francisco Chronicle offering a way to end the Vietnam War.
He suggested that as the allocated cost to kill one Viet Cong soldier was 50000 dollars, the US Government should bundle up 50000 into packets and then “bomb” enemy territory.
Hoppe suggested a direct hit by a 50000 packet would kill the soldier and if it didn’t, they’d pick up the bundle and be converted to capitalism on the spot.
This site also includes the human cost of lives lost and injured, including the conflict in Lebanon. How do you put a $cost on human life?
By something called a “wrongful death lawsuit?” I didn’t mess much with personal injury, but my understanding is that that’s the whole nature of the proceeding.
Perhaps this is out of place here but I thought to mention something that fits in with Trump and Hegseth’s conduct in this war. So for the Semiquincentennial year, the US Mint will produce a new dime with one side based on the great seal of the United States. Fair enough. But then-
‘The Great Seal of the United States features an eagle carrying an olive branch in one talon, representing peace, and 13 arrows in the other talon, representing readiness for war. The head of the eagle points to the olive branch, showing that it prefers peace to war. The semiquincentennial dime removes the olive branch, and features only the arrows representing war.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dime_(United_States_coin)#Semiquincentennial_Dime_(2026)
And that olive branch has been featured for the past 250 years. It’s like they want to imitate the style of government seen in the film “Starship Troopers”.
Why even bother with the eagle, why not just a bundle of arrows:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falange_Espa%C3%B1ola_de_las_JONS
Maybe a crusader cross at the top?
Perhaps an axe surrounded by a bundle of sticks?
Bundle of sticks with an axe would be even more appropriate.
The old Mercury dime did have a bundle of sticks with ax on its reverse side. 1945 was the last year of its production, as you can imagine.
Et voila! We have the design of the 1930s era US dime! Just in time for another World War.
See: https://www.usacoinbook.com/coins/1509/dimes/mercury/1930-S/
Perhaps a tomahawk missile would be appropriate instead of the olive branch
Replace the eagle with Slim Pickens riding the missle—Yeeeee Haaaaaaa!!!
Just replace it with a Punisher logo done up in US flag colors.
“In Castle We Trust?”
I’m starting to get the sense that the idea of a soft coup — no tanks, firmly gripped arms and “This way, Sir” as he’s pushed through numerous doors, then no internet and an ankle bracelet at Mar-a-Lago? — is gaining plausibility. This kind of silly symbolic tampering, which gains nothing but is likely viscerally offensive to the traditionally minded military, helps to grease the slide set up by strategic catastrophe + the coming collage of military debacles + Trump’s world-historical blathering. His Truth Social postings are like the rants Hitler reportedly would engage in, but behind closed doors, not on world radio. He’s setting himself up.
I am not sure it will be soft – the US needs a totally new (military) face to provide believable assurances that it will really retreat from West Asia and pay reparations to preserve its remaining military power (to lord it over S America, Mexico, and Canada – so sorry neighbors).
Can anyone see the US civilian leadership able to believably agree (against zionist puppetry) to Iranian terms rather than hoping on a prayer the global economy will not collapse or that nuclear war is the winning wonderwaffen?
But any reason to believe the military would be any more likely to retreat?
As George Carlin said, “Pull out? That doesn’t sound manly, Bob!”
I have read and heard reports that the U.S. military has been selecting only malleable Crusader dispensational millennialists for promotion for many years now. Keg-stand Pete Hegseth has been erasing all of the DEI and re-naming bases for slave-holders.
My high school bestie’s twin daughters married West Pointers 20-odd years ago and both of these fine young men got chewed-up and spit-out by the Forever Wars. Don’t look to a military soft-coup for salvation.
” His Truth Social postings are like the rants Hitler reportedly would engage in”
This may have been posted here earlier, but it could use updating. Now it would be, “We must open the Strait.” But it’s still pretty funny if outdated by fast-moving events.
That eagle looks more like a vulture.
The front side image doesn’t look like Washington at all. But it achieves its maybe intended purpose: The GOP will finally remove FDR’s image from the dime.
(Because who remembers polio or the March of Dimes, right?)
Keep the arrows in the left talon and have the right talon clutching a limp, mangled dove.
Thanks raspberry jam for watching the Bibi speech. Small cracks in the facade, waiting for the inevitable loud, ugly, public end to the Trump/Netanyahu bromance.
I’m eagerly awaiting Raspberry’s next update given the fog of war around Israel, from the censorship to engagement farmers posting that the country is already entirely in flames.
Moon of Alabama had this epic trolling by Alireza Tangsiri, Commander of the IRGC Navy:
“We guarantee the security of any oil tanker, under any flag, that can convince an American destroyer to escort it through the Strait of Hormuz.”
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/03/war-on-iran-just-a-few-links.html#comments
The Iranian media game has been masterful.
From the tunnel cities videos, to Araigchi’s “We are waiting for them” NBC interview, through many many deadpan statements and tweets.
Never shrill. Always dry and calm. And with an obvious power to affect events behind it.
Re: Report of intercepted Iranian missile strike on Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. Incirlik houses about half of US B-61 nuclear bombs in Europe. Not sure if strike actually intended to destroy these bombs. Although they wouldn’t detonate, their destruction would spread radioactive material for a number of miles.
Is strike primarily a media event, designed to stoke fear of nuclear escalation? Iran doesn’t have nukes, but it can put spectacle of nukes in play. A jiu-jitsu move?
forcing the US not to move Turkish AD systems at Incirlik to Israel, Errrdogan has decidely decided to remain on the fence (and not decide).
It’s being noted by the Turks that the manufacturing of Turkey as the New Threat™ to Israel is well along as a project (and this before even the current war is wrapped up!): (March 11 2026) Turkey is being cast as ‘the next Iran’. We have seen this script before
Eventually Erdogan will get off the fence on the winning side, which is not looking likely for the West due to logistics and complete lack of planning.
I’m going with “shot across the bow” for this rocket.
Who’s side does Erdogan want to be on when it gets hot? Iran has shown pinpoint accuracy where they’ve wanted to.
So, seems to me the miss, this time around, is the message.
The contrast in style with Peter Brian “Epic Roid Rage” Hegseth and Donald Johnald “Epic ‘rrhoid Rage” Trump could hardly be greater.
—
[Thanks to vidim for the reference to Trump’s diet preferences.]
One factor that may be slowing the US equity reaction is the effect of passive flows. Michael Green has been writing about this for some time and it’s also prominent in Michael Burry’s latest.
401ks with allocation to the S&P 500, for example, continue to cause the purchase of all those stocks in proportion to their market cap. The process is self-reinforcing and makes price discovery very sluggish since the passive flows are price takers.
From what I’ve seen, people with this view predict that prices will eventually adjust and the catch-up adjustment could be violent. Similar to the whip saw problem in logistics where delayed response leads to over reaction in both directions.
I have been wondering about the flow of oil gas payments to GCC countries. Presumably much of this goes into sovereign wealth funds which presumably buy financial assets with it. How significant is this? And what is the timing of the payments?
Now that GCC countries are not shipping as much oil and gas, asset purchases can be expected to decline at some point. And GCC countries may soon have to start selling financial assets to fund government operations.
The finances of the Gulf Coast gang are worth wondering about. How much leverage is going on? How much exposure is there to western oriented risk. What do the liquidity profiles look like? Is that Paramount deal at risk, heh heh (sorry). That last one includes the House of Saud, UAE and Qatar, if my memory serves me well.
.
But in a major market decline allocations can be adjusted. Maybe more importantly, margin debt is at the peak of all time. A shock that produces a correction can snowball as investors get margin calls. As I recall, the debt overhang has reached 1.3T, or 4% of gdp.
The problematic Trita Parsi article at New Left Review’s Sidecar we talked about yesterday is adjacent to another Sidecar, an interview with an anonymous Iranian. This stood out:
On its face, the reference to “jet sounds” contradicts the consensus that US and Israeli planes are not flying over Iran and are only using standoff weapons. Is the interviewee confusing sounds made by standoff weapons with those made by planes?
Or is this a case of NLR spreading regime opponent fud? I reluctantly raise that because as I thought about the Parsi interview I was increasingly annoyed by his emphasis on “the regime makes war to justify itself” when it should be obvious that an overriding driver of Iranian efforts is the destruction of negotiation trust that the US and Israel have carried out, their only “Mission Accomplished.”
Not sure what consensus you are talking about regarding direct attack air strikes
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/world/middleeast/air-superiority-iran-war.html?searchResultPosition=1
This is seems more consistent with the eyewitness accounts vs unattributed “consensus”
I’m referring to the non-MSM analysts often linked here, Wilkerson, Johnson and others. For example, in this video from today, linked below, Johnson notes how the pattern of US bombing conforms to the cruising limits of plane-launched missiles fired from outside of Iran.
Re “jet sounds”: many of the standoff missiles, for ex tomahawks, are *also* jet powered.
Much smaller and less noisy, sure, but if it’s flying overhead you’d still hear it.
Not necessarily. U.S. cruise missiles have been jet-powered from the beginning. They usually fly low, so they’re easy to hear when directly overhead.
Iran claims to have struck US aircraft carrier in Persian Gulf
https://tass.com/world/2100985
Oh dear. Could be a busy day.
I’m assuming this is the same incident that was reported yesterday via CBS as U.S. fired at Iranian vessel that approached aircraft carrier, officials say?
Given the evidence of both sides honesty/lies in reporting so far, my money would be on the Iranian version of events!
If true, I sure hope we get some footage.
Alastair Crooke reported they have retreated to 1500 km from Iran (on Daniel Davis – live now).
Might be time for a drive by of Bath Iron Works soon to see if anything interesting is parked there.
Nothing gives you the warm and fuzzies like thinking about how the major economic engine of your area is also an engine for killing schoolchildren.
Am I correct in thinking it would have been a destroyer that would have fired the tomahawk?
Wow. I’m doubtful that the IRGC would push disinfo of this magnitude. Their claims of US casualties have been dodgy, but like all body counts they’re hard to refute. This isn’t.
But would the public back home ever hear of it. The US Navy threatened the survivors of the USS Liberty and all who listened into the battle with court martial followed by lengthy prison terms if they ever told anyone of what happened.
Along those lines … any bets on whether or not there’s a forthcoming false flag attack on an American ship, designed to generate casualties and outrage?
That’s a hefty claim. Is it bolstered by the idea that the Russians are picking up the story?
In today’s media environment…gotta see pics/videos…
I would tend to think so.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-war-news-live-us-warship-uss-abraham-lincoln-damaged-irans-big-claim-and-a-us-counter-11208715
Centcom is denying it.
They would whether the denial was accurate not.
The term “credibility gap” came into use during the Vietnam War.
The claim that the downed fueler in Iraq was some sort of “shit happens” ex a strike does not help with their general believability, nor the insistence that the boats of fishermen that we blew up near Venezuela were “narco terrosists”.
Of course, CENTCOM could be accurate here, but the history leads one to first believe otherwise
This just went live on Dialogue Works. The Larrys think it was an airstrike.
Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: U.S. KC-135 Down — Carrier Abraham Lincoln Hit by Missiles & Drones
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxecocoahPM
I skimmed through the closed captions twice and didn’t see a reference to the Lincoln. Retracted? The attack is still mentioned in the post’s title.
I listened to it. Larry Johnson most assuredly said so, pretty early on but in passing. He dismissed something Nima said about it.
Nima never edits these videos
See this new video. Larry Johnson flatly says at 0:50: “It was shot down.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46Pn75dJ7aA
All of Hegseth’s frantic gesturing in the clip early in this podcast remind me of Rumsfeld Fighting Techniques. Maybe he took lessons from the master.
Call him Donald “Lyndon Baines Johnson” Trump. The war will only last 1-2 months, the same way that the US had destroyed the Viet Cong’s ability to reconstitute a conventional army, and the Tet Offensive was impossible.
They are making the same mistake, selling the public a story that the war is almost over, and once the public understands that the story is b.s., this is going to be even more unpopular. It is crazy, they never bothered to prepare the public for this war, they can’t even agree on a narrative regarding what it is about or how it possibly could serve the interests of America, now they are trying to soft-play seismic economic disruptions which will only intensify, along with pretty stories about a quick victory. Short term morale boost, long-term, total disaster. There was already a serous problem for the US with loss of faith in institutions and mainstream (e.g. state-intel controlled) media. When the consequences of this war finally bear fruit, you might very well see a revolution.
It is crazy, they never bothered to prepare the public for this war,
I think it’s been a long while since they cared what the citizenry in the US thinks.
Many millions of people only get their news through social media. If their algorithm leans right then they are probably already thinking that the USA has already won the war and Iran has been defeated.
As Churchill said, “we are entering a period of consequences.” Trump’s business blunders were remedied by bailouts from his father and credulous bankers. There is no one to rescue him from the disaster of this war. Empires crumble slowly, then all at once.
So there’s a meme-joke on twitter which is #thecork which I actually quite like as I think it makes a good point.
It’s a satire on the idea of US/Western analysts thinking that Iran has to physically block the Strait to stop shipping.
“Some morons on this site are convinced that to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would need to blockade it with a navy or just put a big chain across it. So we came up with #TheCork — a literal, physical, 21-nautical-mile-wide, 1,000-stories-high cork that the Islamic Republic would use to physically close the strait like a bottle.
I think you understand why it terrifies them”.
I think Mr. Amerikanets (or @ripplebrain on twitter) coined that one, and he is both a great analyst and a great sh*tposter. Highly recommend following him
His recent article on virtual war that was done in Venezuela (but failed in Iran) and his other articles on NATO wunderwaffe are also excellent
https://www.amerikanets.com/
Just followed him on X : that’s ole Ezra Pound on his profile pic, I like him already !
For the curious, statements by the Chinese and Russians about the UN resolution condemning Iran, with no mention of why Iran would stoop so low as to launch attacks on its just-minding-their-own-business neighbors.
A commenter yesterday linked to a Substack post by Hua Bin on how China sees the crisis. And I get that there may be “nuances” to explain choosing abstention over a veto, as in the vote over administration of Gaza. And yet … doesn’t this violate a first principle of bullyology? (I mean actual bullyology, not the ersatz projected version peddled about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.) That principle being, a bully only stops when stopped. That’s because a bully understands ingratiation, compliance, or even rational discourse as weakness, which leads to further aggression, much as running from a dog cues chasing.
I know that the bulk of what’s really going on goes on well out of sight. I understand the importance of biding time and the avoidance of polarization. Perhaps there’s downside with little practically constructive in a vote of no. And a yes vote won’t in itself neutralize what’s corroding any semblance of fairness or impartiality, an intangible basis for collective security that the Security Council might regret the loss of. And if that isn’t enough, we’re told states voted against Iran to play up to the GCC (remember us when you dispense the Spice!) and the U.S. (please don’t bomb or tariff us!), and besides, no one likes Iran anyway (for … reasons). Plus, Chomsky-deranged Occidentals place an unhealthy emphasis on meaningless speech acts (shut up and trust the plan!).
I’m reminded of Putin’s chuckle when Tucker Carlson asked him about the Nord-Stream sabotage: “If you had evidence and presumably, given your security services, your intel services, you would, that NATO, the US, CIA, the West did this, why wouldn’t you present it and win a propaganda victory?” Putin answered: “In the war of propaganda it is very difficult to defeat the United States because the United States controls all the world’s media.”
So, well, anyway, maybe it’s best to follow Louis’s advice and leave worries on the doorstep. Or Joe’s, and organize, if only a few thoughts, and move along, having seen what there’s to see.
Yesterday there was a link to a video about Iran’s stealthy unmannned underwater vehicles that caught my attention.
They are electric, can loiter for 3 days and have a 300KM range and a 25Kg warhead.
These do not require a dedicated launch platform, they can be launched from fishing boats.
US Carriers are on the open sea and they will be sailing in a “Race track” pattern, a big oval or rectangle, which is SOP.
It’s predictable.
They will be on the lookout for missiles, drones and speedboats, not stealthy underwater drones.
These drones are “Smart” and can be programmed to seek out and attack a ship with a particular acoustic signal, every ship has a unique acoustic signal.
Drop half a dozen in the water along the predictable path of these carriers, programmed to attack the screws and you will either cripple the Carriers or cause them to leave the area.
Iran has plenty of these UUV’s and they are very difficult to counter even if you are looking for them, which USN is not…no camels on the ocean, so no worries.
25kg warhead won’t do much against large warships, though, especially not a carrier.
they would work against an oiler? (also if they target (with AI) the prop). The US has very few of those.
That’s the explosive equivalent of a single 155mm shell minus the shrapnel. Not going to cause serous damage to a warship.
That could mess up a submarine by compromising the pressure hull, preventing it from diving to some degree or another.
Umm, no:
Shaped charge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaped_charge
Better to think like this is used to blow a hole in a highly armored tank.
The number I’ve seen is 200 kg warhead, and as it is about the size of a Russian 553 mm torpedo, that’s plausible.
I’ve also seen claims that in the relatively shallow waters of Persian Gulf, these things can travel to a predetermined location, and then stay on the seafloor up to 96 hours waiting for a target – a mine of sorts.
One can add to that the Fajr-5 heavy MRLS minig missiles, which Iran demonstrated some time ago in military exercises. Instead of a fragmentation warhead the missile carries a naval mine to about 75 kilometers. Each launcher has 4 of them, and the launchers are networked, so with a push of a button an IRGC battery commander can create a small-ish minefield (16-32 mines) in less than two minutes. Basically anywhere in the Persian Gulf.
Shaped charge? But what’s the thickness of the hull plate, particularly at the waterline where it’s likely armored against just this kind of attack? Nevertheless, the Iranian engineers would be designing for this too. Will time tell the story?
I suspect that economic ideology is behind a lot of this. If you’re a dumb financial journalist, you think only about financial issues, so your view of the impact of the closure of Hormuz is limited to financial consequences, which you understand. The idea that there might be other practical consequences as well is so little understood in this hyper-financialised world where everything is available from Amazon, that people have trouble remembering what real life is actually like. In any case, ideology dictates that if the price of something goes up, new players will enter the market and supply the oil and petroleum products that are needed. Where’s the problem?
“world where everything is available from Amazon”
Or not:
Do you understand what’s happening at Amazon right now? Their own AI coding agent Kiro reportedly “decided” the fastest way to fix a config error was to delete the entire production environment. Gone. A 6-hour outage. 6.3 million orders lost. Amazon’s SVP called thousands of… https://t.co/1p9QeSm4us — Tuki (@TukiFromKL) March 12, 2026
(from links today)
So I just watched the 60 minutes episode on “Havana Syndrome” and I have to say, it really seems like we’re being prepared for a (direct) hot war with Russia. Impossible to tell what’s really going on, but my working hypothesis is that the mircowave weapon does exist, was developed by the Russians, but was deployed by the CIA against some random, convenient bureaucrats to be used as an excuse to claim we’ve been attacked by Russia. Left unanswered in the episode is why Russia would have wanted to attack those individuals. Why the wife of some State Department guy? What would be the purpose of that, from the Russian point of view? On the other hand, if you’re trying to run the ol’ “tell them they are being attacked as pretext for a war that no one wants” ploy, the whole thing seems to hang together a lot better.
Long story short, I’m with Jeffery Sachs on this one – I think the next world war is already in the bag (much as I hate to think it).
I think future historians will cite Feb 24, 2022, as the date the 3rd world war started. Since then, we’re only opening up new fronts. Of course, we can still hope that things de-escalate, but I’ve given up hope that the demons in charge have a reverse gear, and backing down means doom for the victims of their imperialism.
I would put it at the start of the SMO in Ukraine (which depleted the West’s military arsenals. The Iranian strategy would have been much riskier if the West still had its 2020-era arsenals (including the Ukrainian and eastern European former Soviet arsenals). The SMO has also driven forward several military revolutions, including drones and their impact on military strategies and doctrines by Russia and China (but not the West, which, even if it understood, cannot without Chinese rare earths).
Possible fake news
I’ve seen a few people, most recently George Galloway claim that Bibi’s zoom call was AI generated. The claim is that portions of the video show his hand with 6 fingers, a tell for AI. May have been debunked but I haven’t seen yet..
Bibai?
I don’t think it was AI generated (and I work in the field so I am confident in my perception on this). I watched the entire sodding thing last night. He was moving too much at points for it to be gen. His facial expressions and responses were too natural, seconds of nervousness and anger showing.
That said, he WAS using the zoom appearance enhancing feature to make himself look more attractive and it showed in his skin and hair appearance which was too smooth.
Is it true that this was his first public press appearance since the war started? Two weeks is a long time for the leader of a country at war to go MIA.
But, even if it was “real,” was he even in Israel?
I sincerely doubt Netanyahu is going to be allowed to flee at this point. He can’t fly the plane. Anyone who helps him flee as Israel faces defeat will be hunted down. He was allowed to send his wife out (son has been out for several months at least) probably because her family is powerful crime family and favors were called in. He is effectively a hostage until Israel is defeated or he is arrested.
One of the only moments of what appeared sincere emotion that wasn’t masked in his speech was the bit where he talked about his wife being the source of his strength. Now she is crazy and supposedly wears the pants in the relationship but his emotion there seemed sincere and like a message of some sort.
I think he has been bunkered since it began, only coming out briefly for media appearances.
Not sure what to make of this, but others are wondering about “AI” too:
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/197388
Six fingers?
Commenter “raspberry jam” who graciously took the punishment of watching the interview on our behalf mentioned that the Zoom appearance filter was used in the interview. My suspicion is that this filter is AI driven and the supernumerary digit was in fact an “accidental enhancement”.
raspberry jam @ March 12, 2026 at 9:09 pm
I would like a timestamp or screencap of the extra digit, those were artifacts in previous generations of models and they have mostly been resolved. The appearance filters do use AI, but typically not enough gen to create extra fingers. It’s more about skin and lighting smoothing and background blur (all of which were in the video)
I haven’t seen it myself (I can’t stand to look at Netanyahu’s face), but someone who is not paying careful attention might perceive such a blur/interpolation as more discrete than it actually is, and given how AI now haunts us at every turn, therefore almost reflexively (and carelessly) attribute the phantom digit to AI.
AI as the new Red Scare?
Genghis Don. New nickname for Trump inspired by his recent Truth Social post about Iran ” They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for years and now, I as the 47th president of the United States of America, am killing them what a great honor it is! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump.” I believe that this Golden Golem of Greed will actually embrace this sobriquet. Sadly, his blood lust is shared by others in our ruling class. Consider the comment of Hillary Clinton, aka “Attila the Hen’s” remarks delighting in the death of Ghadaffy.
“Killing innocent people all over the world for years”–yeah, every accusation is a confession with this crew.
Genghis Don and the Golden Whored, ie The Epstein Class.
Reference to B.N. press conference:
– a lot of references to acting on their own/making their own way to become a regional power; I think this “regional power without always having the backing of the US” position is going to be more prominent going forward
This translation interpreted something bigger:
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2032209493073736106/
Netanyahu declares that the Iran War is not only turning Israel into a “regional superpower,” but into a “global superpower.”
The translation I saw he did say “regional and in some cases global power” I took the global power comment to refer to specific intelligence capabilities
The ballistic missile strike toward Incirlik (assuming this really happened) has me wondering what the heck is going on there. Iran has been extremely prudent and thoughtful with every single action it has taken. So why did they do this? Why only a single warhead?
I speculate that they must have seen something afoot (given that we know they have their own satellites, what appears to be very free access to Chinese ISR, and likely Chinese analysis, and also likely ISR assistance from Russia). I can only guess that something must have been underway in Turkiye, with the US likely believing that Iran would be far more circumspect due to Turkey being a fairly major military power. The single missile seems like Iran sending a message along the lines of: “We see what you are doing. We are willing to put a halt to it if you make it necessary, and to prove it, here is a missile that you can probably prevent from hitting the ground, but we have lots more if our warning is not heeded”.
Given US deceptive behavior, if they were doing something, the Turks may or may not have known, so this gives them the benefit of the doubt without doing any damage, allowing the Turks to also save face by being able to shoot down the warhead, and gives them the opportunity to squash US behavior. This potential expansion of the theater of battle is a very important one. Turkiye likely has the largest remaining stockpiles of NATO weaponry left on the Eurasian continent. Erdogan is shrewd, deceptive, and willing to backstab, so you never know which way he is going to go here. He no doubt sees Iran as a rival power in the region that would check his ambitions, but the Israelis have been openly stating that Turkiye is now on the menu for months. Then you have European vs Russian economic interests pulling him in opposite directions. Tough decisions for him to make and I expect actions that will appear erratic to us as he will likely follow his past patterns of behavior of very blatantly trying to play everyone against each other.
Possibly a warning and a launch to activate/map air defense radar. Suspect Iran is giving the US time to move their assets off base to avoid a future Iranian strike.
Speculating, maybe Iran is testing the radar systems, and/or forcing focus of surveillance systems away from other operations?
On Lebanon, Beeley has the wrong end of the stick. Again. There is no split in the government or between the government and the military. The re-establishment of the monopoly of legitimate force for the government was one of President Aoun’s signature policies from the beginning. This involves getting rid of Hezbollah’s military capability (and that of other militias), but Aoun, as former Army commander, and Haykal, whom he personally appointed, are clear that Hezbollah cannot be closed down forcibly and that it would be suicidal to attempt to do so. As far as I can tell this is the view not only of the government and the Army but of the entire Lebanese political class. Before the latest round of violence, the Army was in fact making some progress disarming Hezbollah in the South.
What this is actually about is a badly-timed intervention by the Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. He’s a Sunni (and the Sunnis harbour a particular grudge against Hezbollah for the murder of Rafik Hariri in 2005) and he’s a technocrat, not a politician, with a generally poor sense of political judgement. When Hezbollah carried out a token bombardment of Israel a week or so ago, he went off the deep end and without consulting anyone, made an announcement after a Cabinet meeting demanding the dissolution of Hezbollah. (The Lebanese political class as a whole is angry with Hezbollah for getting the country involved in another pointless war, but Salam seems to have blurted out what a lot of his colleagues were thinking. Aoun’s comments were much more measured.)
There is, and remains, no appetite in any part of the Lebanese political system for trying to dismantle Hezbollah forcibly, US fantasies of doing so notwithstanding.
Yesterday Alastair Crooke offered multiple links explaining what is going on.
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-lebanon-front-hezbollah-returns
It seems the Israelis–so puffed up about their “golden pagers”–have miscalculated again and didn’t expect so much “pointless” opposition. Former CIA Larry Johnson has talked about how incompetent the Mossad is when it comes to anything other than assassinating people. It could be the sociopaths’ lack of empathy cripples their insight and accurate intelligence.
The question is, in light of the Israeli perfidy so far, can major Lebanese factions afford to remain hostile to Hizb’ullah? My reaction after Nasrallah was killed was that it’ll force Hizb’ullah to retreat in Lebanese politics under pressure from rivals (without charismatic and skilled political leadership) so that they can’t be actively fighting Israelis, but this was, in the end, predicated on Israel behaving itself so that Lebanese cutting Hizb’ullah out was paying dividends for them. It hasn’t: Israel still bombs Lebanon, kills Lebanese, and seizes Lebanese lands. Very few people in Lebanon, regardless of factions, I’d imagine will want to appease Israel especially now. Israeli “victory” earlier, was not kinetic, but political and unless you keep “maintaining” it, it couldn’t last, especially when Hizb’ullah military potential remained fully intact.
This is again your specific view. Others see differently.
Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese political class. It represents much of the South. It is a charity and local aid organization as well as a militia.
Lebanese political scene is bitterly divided. The organized Sunni faction, for instsnce, despises Hizb’ullah and the Sh’ia and would love to cut a deal with Israelis. (A bit like the Gulfies, but more blunt it seems.) Others are, eh, more complicated and variable, afaik. The loss of Nasrallah and other members of the political leadership, I think, cost Hozb’ullah much of its ability to play domestic Lebanese politics and forced them to retrench, as they came under pressure to stop fighting the Israelis.
My hunch, though, is that the developments over the past year or so did not do Hizb’ullah’s rivals too much favor vis a vis Lebanese publics.
First the big picture – at least as I see it. 1) control the homeland – defang what’s left of the press by buying it, force academia to submit, introduce Domestic Terrorism and a Federal police state through ICE, 2) control the hemisphere – subvert half the states in Latin America, make trouble for Mexico and work for a right wing govt in Brazil. As an aside, what is happening to the Argentine people is a tragedy – is it so hard to get some reporting? Leave Greenland and Canada for the time being, they’re small fry. 3) control the ME with Israel, a second front against Russia, a Trump card in making terms with China. 4) promote fascism everywhere including Europe and Asia.
This is not about Trump it’s about the ruling class, which, incidentally, is transnational, including Chinese. But I have it on some authority (if it is needed) that Trump is utterly ruthless, utterly untrustworthy and a magician – if he points his finger in one direction it is to divert from the real action some where else. And, of course, utterly corrupt.
So questions: 1) as a man who always escalates, is Trump ever able to stand down? Is there, in fact, any line to cross in using tactical nukes? 2) Can China allow the US to defeat Iran because if it does it will reshape the world? Do we have any insight at all about what China is thinking? 3) If whoever-it-may-be’s only choice is to take sides, do we want to live in a fascist state like Argentinian peasants, today? 5) Given we are only 10 years away from 2C global heating, does any of this matter?
Nature, as they say, will have the last laugh but it will be no laughing matter.
Though there is some truth to it, I think calling the ruling class simply “transnational” misses the point a bit. The US elite might be pals with the European elite, but one has the whip hand and the other does not, with very clear consequences. Furthermore, if it was quite simply a matter of elites ruling this war would most likely not even be happening. The Chinese, and I presume their elites either agree or are irrelevant to the matter, seem to be giving at least intel to Iran, and potentially materiel help.
To your last point, it matters a great deal. Within the US, the only agenda the current loss of Government Legitimacy fully serves is that of the Accelerationists. The tech branch has moved from ‘Move Fast and Break Things’ to ‘Smash and Grab’, and they are the ones with the power (σ) to rapidly leverage the system. The Dominionist wing’s extremists are looking to see the light, the sooner the better, but their window of opportunity is also limited.
since mr domhoffe(sp-2) i havent seen any real investigation into the factions within the ‘global elite’…whitney webb is perhaps the exception.
but there are factions.
and they often hate each other, and only collude when it suits their factional interests.
that whole part of our world remains rather opaque…and few among the mundanes i see around town want to even think about plumbing those depths.
trump, et alia, has multiple bosses.
with often competing interests, and this should be kept in mind.
it aint just godzilla, its mothra, ghidra and that turtle thing with the flaming legs, too…and lets not forget those nymph-like chicks who sang on the shore, either,lol.
The paper that (σ) leads to has… implications. Elite structures may resolve to hierarchies at the very top, but as series of local peaks rather than a unitary single head. Take Bezos, Metaboy, and all the rest, they have their fiefdoms, and are competing with each other while cooperating at the class level. At every level, see Sapolsky:
> Ideally, we have a lot more behavioral flexibility than the baboon. Unlike baboons, humans can overcome their low social status and isolation by belonging to multiple hierarchies. We are capable of social supports that no other primate can even dream of. For example, I might say, ‘This job, where I’m a lowly mailroom clerk, really doesn’t matter. What really matters is that I’m the captain of my softball team or deacon of my church’–that sort of thing.
An Iran-linked hacker group has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on a medical tech company in what appears to be the first significant instance of Iran’s hacking an American company since the start of the war between the countries.
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-appears-conducted-significant-cyberattack-us-company-first-war-st-rcna263084
This happened. Our neighbour is an engineer at Stryker in Redmond, and there is chaos in his department
i have multiple reports from houston area that cell fone service is frelled today, for what its worth.
i expect lots of that kind of thing…unattributable, or otherwise poorly explained…going forward.
thats part of the battlespace, now…
Venezuela Opens Its Gold and Rare Earths to U.S. Mining
https://www.riotimesonline.com/venezuela-opens-its-gold-and-rare-earths-to-u-s-mining/
Switzerland refuses US military overflight
https://www.bluewin.ch/en/news/switzerland/switzerland-refuses-us-military-overflight-3142029.html
Ships identify themselves as Chinese around Strait of Hormuz during Iran war to avoid attacks
https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/72225
And I bet that the Chinese government tells the Iranians which ships really are China bound.
Well I suppose if Americans have to suffer for Israel then Israel should have some American style suffering.
The retired Colonels (Wilkerson, Davis, Macgregor) and Major Ritter have all pointed out the challenges that would be faced by boots on the ground in Iran. Martyanov pointed out another factor.
Shoigu’s reorganization and reconstitution of the Russian military took 9 years to complete, and required adjustment after the early experience in Ukraine. A force capable of survival on the modern battlefield with pervasive surveillance and lethal stand-off weaponry requires a complete rethinking of military doctrine and training, and equipment.
Prime example is assembly areas. Any significant concentration of troops will be spotted immediately and subjected to drone, missile, and artillery fire. Russia’s military mitigates this by not concentrating troops and by use of mobile air defenses.
Best case guess for lead time needed: a decade or more.
And Russia is accomplishing this on their doorstep; America needs to move equipment and manpower across the globe, too!
China announces AI boost to radar as drone swarms confound detectors in Iran war
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3346493/china-announces-ai-boost-radar-drone-swarms-confound-detectors-iran-war?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
Pete Hegseth Says ‘The Sooner David Ellison Takes Over’ CNN ‘the Better’ in Slamming Outlet’s Report That Trump Administration ‘Underestimated’ Iran Attack’s Impact on Strait of Hormuz
https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/hegseth-cnn-sooner-david-ellison-takes-over-cnn-the-better-1236686911/
Enjoy the last days of CNN doing any sort of questioning or work that is skeptical of the US government. Once Ellison takes over, it’s Fox News 2.0.
From watchdog to lapdog.
After watching Jake Tapper’s interviews with the Iranian diaspora reprising McCain’s ‘bomb, bomb Iran’ performance, I don’t see this as much of a leap.
From Canada we see little critical thinking on MSM broadcasters and radio stations in your States United of America (I did titled your country in like fashion purposefully): including PBS. However and very sadly for Canadians I can say we have the same problem and I include the CBC, the UK BBC equivalent. More sadly we don’t have your Cronkite, though neither do we either presently. (But I remember Maher or even Donahue getting the hook). But I found the following little quote in Trump’s Art of the Deal which warmed my cockles a little and give me a little hope:
“I don’t kid myself. Life is very fragile, and success doesn’t change that. If anything, success makes it more fragile. Anything can change, without warning, and that’s why I try not to take any of what’s happened too seriously. Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game. I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about what I should have done differently, or what’s going to happen next. If you ask me exactly what the deals I’m about to describe all add up to in the end, I’m not sure I have a very good answer. Except that I’ve had a very good time making them.”
#Ditto
CNN was already trash. It’s just gone full N10z15t now.
China says it will donate $250,000 to families of Iran school strike victims
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/china-says-it-will-donate-250000-to-families-of-iran-school-strike-victims
Looks like Iraq is back in play, US is bombing Baghdad and losing planes. Ooops.
Iran ‘about to surrender’: Trump told G7 ahead of Mojtaba Khamenei’s 1st remarks, says report
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/trump-told-g7-allies-iran-about-to-surrender-ahead-of-mojtaba-khameneis-1st-remarks-report-101773393856837.html
Hegseth presser:
The only thing preventing tankers from transiting the straights is Iran fire on shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that.
Germany’s Merz says easing Russia sanctions is wrong
https://www.reuters.com/world/germany-seeks-clarity-easing-us-sanctions-against-russia-merz-says-2026-03-13/
Thousands of Chinese boats mass at sea, raising questions
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/thousands-chinese-boats-mass-sea-043002676.html?ncid=redditnewsus
Craig Tindale’s latest —
What the 2000 Fishing Boats Were Doing in the South China Sea.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-190828469
The Fishing Ship Phalanx
Firstly, they are almost certainly autonomous; keeping 2000 ships in a geometric formation in gale-force winds would be improbable with human crews.
The fishing boat exists as a specialised cell within a massive administrative organism. Think of this as a large-scale water ballet of ships, like the drone-swarm light shows (that most of us have witnessed), just bigger with ships. 2000 diesel engines driving hard at once, you probably can’t hear anything on the sonar detector.
By subsidising steel hulls and installing military-grade command interfaces (they aren’t really fishing boats ), the provincial military of Zhejiang has transformed the civilian fleet into a disciplined force. The geometric formations, parallel lines and inverted Ls are simply military maneuvers. Just like Alexander or Napoleon, assets are getting moved around for a purpose. The old reasoning was that they could only cross in a few months of the year because it was so windy and rough. Does practising in the wind signal whether they contemplate a windy crossing?
In the multipolar world, presence constitutes the primary currency of sovereignty. This structure denies operational freedom to external actors while securing a controlled environment for strategic maneuvers.
The Acoustic Geometry of the Shield
The operation’s purpose is to utilise the ocean’s physical properties to create a structural blind spot.
This is the rationalisation of noise. Two thousand diesel engines operating at maximum capacity during a Force 7 gale produce a continuous, 400-kilometre wall of broadband acoustic cavitation. This noise functions as an acoustic shroud, neutralising or cloaking the allies’ sensory apparatusof the allies.The sophisticated hydrophone arrays and sonar nets find themselves blinded by the mechanised roar of the surface fleet. The choice of the Miyako Strait is obviously calculated. Think of the fishing fleet as a doorman to the submarines.
This strait is a critical gateway to the deep Pacific. By anchoring this acoustic shield over the transit corridor, the state enables its subsurface assets to pass through the first island chain with total invisibility. The submarine transits through the overwhelming presence of a louder, larger surface entity. This is the mechanical reality of the Obsidian Shield.
It’s equivalent to sending a marching band down a channel so nobody can hear what is going on.
The Algorithmic Enclosure
Maintaining a rigid formation in gale-force winds for thirty consecutive hours requires a centralised, AI autonomous command system.
The BeiDou satellite network serves as the digital leash for this operation. Through the BeiDou Short Message Communication protocol, the Eastern Theatre Command exerts direct, synchronised control over every throttle and rudder in the fleet. This is the automation of maritime strategy.
The AI eliminates the need for verbal communication, ensuring the 400-kilometer grid remains structurally sound despite the sea state. The thirty-hour duration reveals the mechanical limits of the system. The fuel calculation, the exact point at which the vessels must disperse to ensure a safe return, determines this window. The synchronised scattering of the fleet is the final act of a timed bureaucratic sequence. The event exists as an exercise in totalized state mobilisation.
Blending civilian assets with military precision to assert dominance in contested waters is obviously a solid tactic.
By leveraging subsidised fleets equipped with advanced satellite-guided controls and potentially autonomous systems, China not only tests the boundaries of grey-zone operations but also creates multifaceted shields, acoustic, visual, and operational, that could cloak subsurface movements and deter adversaries ….
Wow! Friggin brilliant. As an added equivalence, like walking into a bar with loud music and a louder crowd.
The posted quotes smells of AI, either outright or to buff the “style”. Assertive, short sentences. The shorter, the more aphoristic. A noun for every adjective and an adjective for every noun. No admissiin of nuance. Listening to somebody argue a case like this would be exhausting. AI loves the sound of its own voice like a barroom bore.
Ever read Hemingway? Not going to argue right or wrong on this particular example, but good writing happens. (Lol, it occurs to me that pub-bore might not be an altogether misinterpretation of Hemingway’s character.)
Revenant: The posted quotes smells of AI, either outright or to buff the “style”.
[1] Tinsdale’s argument is plausible. That’s what matters. It doesn’t smell of AI outright, because unless it’s made to, AI doesn’t think outside the box like this, then walk through a whole unconventional argument consistently (as here).
Conceivably, Tinsdale could have fed a series of facts and his theories about them into an AI, and had it answer and focus his speculations, then told the AI to summarize the results. Thus, “the buffed style.” Tinsdale’s argument remains plausible — more than that, because 2000 boats can’t be kept in straight ranks like that unless they’re networked and AI steered.
[2] Also: you will tear the em dash out of my cold, dead hands.
In other words, just because AIs may be trained to default to a style of assertive short sentences, for example, that doesn’t mean short assertive sentences haven’t long been one of the powerful writing modes (as mrsyk alludes to re: Hemingway, etc.).
There are a lot of stylistic techniques that AIs have been trained on as constituting effective writing, because those stylistic techniques indeed are and have long been effective writing. It would be ridiculous to stop using them because of that. Especially as there is no AI style. You can tell the good ones to vary sentence length, or write in the styles of Anthony Powell or J.G. Ballard, and they’ll sometimes do a surprisingly good job. They’ve a far harder time doing, say, a Saul Bellow or Denis Johnson and the good ones will even tell you why that is. (It’s because those writers’ styles aren’t so much on the prose level, but a result of what and how their minds saw and thought.)
Taiwan phishing phleet?
China halts refinery exports, cuts jet fuel supply to Australia
https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/china-halts-refinery-exports-cuts-jet-fuel-supply-to-australia/news-story/9cde7858fc941aa46fb9663f083344c5
Yep! Was about to post link from Yahoo!News … but glad I scrolled up first … like dominoes stood in a row … one, by one.
Oil prices dip as Indian tanker sails out of Strait of Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-drops-after-us-issues-license-countries-buy-russian-oil-stranded-sea-30-days-2026-03-13/
Fake news. Amazing Reuters propagated it.
In a more Buddhist stage of my life, I used to think that perhaps the humane thing to do with respect to our ruling class would be to trap them in a virtual reality, in which stock prices always went up, safely detached from reality. The problem, it now occurs, is that they already are in such a state.
That’s not correct, the article says “Brent crude climbed past $100 a barrel on Friday as it became clear an Indian tanker did not sail through the Strait of Hormuz but had departed from Oman east of the strait”
I know India tries to play both ways. and claim it’s own interests are pursued..etc..but media can be be reasonably multi front
URL : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRT5qC05I_k
The NY Times seems to have finally clued in
Globalization Faces Its Next Crisis (NY Times)
No mention of acid, yet, or other precursors. But they’re starting to catch on at least.
Meanwhile the US economy was already getting sicker
Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%
I see the USA is sending a marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, about 5000 marines and several warships per the Wall St. Journal. That should do it.
I wonder which bases those marines are going to guard. Surely this is not for a ground war excursion, granted that the crazy shown by the US leaves room for doubt.
In those numbers they are just targets.
More here:
USS Tripoli, 31st MEU Heading to the Middle East
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/13/uss-tripoli-31st-meu-heading-to-the-middle-east
This is not good – need to get off the escalation ladder!
Looks like something spooked Bessent:
https://news.sky.com/video/moment-call-from-white-house-situation-room-interupts-interview-13518914
He doesn’t normally stammer and get lost for words, does he?
Indeed. It takes a worried man to sing a worried song. Especially when he means to sing just the opposite kind.
And his voice is actually shaking, he’s not merely stammering and struggling for words, .
Oh boy. The Padishah Emperor preparing to try and send in the Sardaukar already? That’ll go well.
Again wow. This is a must watch. This makes me nervous.
Yes, it’s a disturbing clip.
I was surprised when Nima showed it to Larry W and Larry J that both of them completely ignored how obviously upset he was. His voice sounded like he was on the verge of tears and they didn’t bat an eye (and just commented on his sexuality, like anyone gives a s**t) – don’t know what to make of that.
I wonder if it has to do with the rumors around marines being sent into the region.
my guess is ‘draft’.
Ding ding ding !
In case you missed it, Congress is automatically registering every man aged 18-26 for the draft. No longer any question of being able to make decisions on whether you want to register or not. The presumption is that the government owns you. Originated under Biden, passed under Trump.
https://x.com/RedactedNews/status/2032161804219023814
And of course, the bill was bipartisan.
Fortunately DOGE has made sure there’s no hint of the competence anywhere in the Federal Government to execute on something like this.
God moves in mysterious ways.
This also raises a question…
Does Bessent’s “teenager considering military service”… get some kind of special treatment, i.e., she gets to consider it, yes or no?
I do hope you are wrong here, but that’s a strong take.
I disagree. I think Milton Friedman boasted of ending conscription as his greatest legacy. Conservative imperialists (not that the liberal kind are much better) loathe conscription because conscript armed forces have a strong connection to the rest of the population. Resistance to the War on Vietnam was in large part fuelled by the fact that people didn’t want their sons, husbands and fathers sent to die against their wishes in Indochina.
The end of conscription meant the US transitioned into a volunteer Armed Forces model. Because soldiers chose to enlist, the case for a default antiwar stance was significantly weakened, thus insulating the Armed Forces from popular scrutiny.
I doubt Bessent is worried for his daughter, since the elites are quite adept at draft dodging. But the moment soldiers refuse to shoot – which is much more likely to happen if said soldiers are restive conscripts – is the moment elites are toppled.
I nodded along to this the whole way. I’m just not sure that the people who think this way are in charge at the moment.
I wonder if the Trump Treasury Dept will roll out The Coin to pay for the war(s) if the bond market goes on strike.
Watched the video and while Bessent doesn’t seem happy to be there, I think his speaking performance is not too far out of the ordinary for him there. He frequently stammers and wanders while trying to find the right words even in run-of-the-mill interviews.
My impression has always been that he is constantly revising the truth of the topic in his head into acceptable BS and we witness that translation time.
Ref this interview at Davos with Bartiromo: https://www.google.com/search?q=bessent+interview+davos&sca_esv=5176837d497f6a28&udm=7&biw=1728&bih=958&sxsrf=ANbL-n54NojKyKP6E5Xa-k56bLWVAVc06w%3A1773437673952&ei=6YK0aenOOdP9ptQPntrksAQ&ved=0ahUKEwip59iU6p2TAxXTvokEHR4tGUYQ4dUDCBE&uact=5&oq=bessent+interview+davos&gs_lp=EhZnd3Mtd2l6LW1vZGVsZXNzLXZpZGVvIhdiZXNzZW50IGludGVydmlldyBkYXZvczIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyBRAAGO8FMgUQABjvBTIFEAAY7wUyBRAAGO8FMggQABiiBBiJBUiTEVCoBVihEHABeAGQAQCYAYECoAGTBaoBBTAuMy4xuAEDyAEA-AEBmAIEoAKABMICChAAGLADGNYEGEfCAgUQIRigAcICCBAAGIAEGKIEmAMAiAYBkAYFkgcFMS4yLjGgB94UsgcFMC4yLjG4B_4DwgcDMS4zyAcGgAgA&sclient=gws-wiz-modeless-video#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:7117c160,vid:7PI8uCTV34A,st:0
USEFUL IDIOTS interview with Behrooz Ghamari (who was with Doug Henwood last week)
Iran Sentenced Him to Death. He Still Opposes Regime Change. Meet Professor Behrooz Ghamari.
Watch a free preview of our episode and subscribe for the full discussion on the argument that Iranians shouldn’t have to “pay the price for Palestine.”
30 min., segment starts at TC 7:00
https://www.usefulidiotspodcast.com/p/iran-sentenced-him-to-death-he-still
Good catch, AG. Trying to make my way to the transcript. Re the Marxist politics that almost got him killed, was he in the Fedayeen (secular) or the Mojahedin (Islamic)?
Pentagon Is Moving Additional Marines, Warships to the Middle East (WSJ live blog, not archived)
The Pentagon is moving additional Marines and warships to the Middle East as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, according to three U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit, typically consisting of several warships and 5,000 Marines, the officials said.
The Japan-based USS Tripoli and its attached Marines are now headed for the Middle East, two of the officials said. Marines are already in the Middle East supporting the Iran operation, the officials said.
BP: They’re gonna try some stupid sh*t, aren’t they?
See Churchill’s Dardanelles campaign February 1915.. Australia remember.
Damn right we remember.
Add Dieppe to the butcher’s bill on behalf of us Canucks, please and thank you. Never any shortage of colonials available to throw into the amphibious meat grinder , eh?
And whenever here was a victory by colonial troops in the World Wars, it would be claimed that it was a “British” victory to raise morale in the UK.
The South remembers.
WW2.
My grandfather was a volunteer (had an important job so wasn’t conscripted).
Trained for 3 months.
3 more months on a ship from UK, round Horn of Africa, to Singapore. Lightly bombed en route to Java.
Landed on Java. Was immediately captured by the Japanese.
Spent next 2+ years as a slave/POW in a Japanese coalmine.
Eventually returned home and was a lifelong pacifist with bad PTSD nightmares.
He taught me well. War is stupid, and we should avoid it.
There is a lot of air activity on the Saudi/Iraq border lately, that is where the air tankers have gone. The 82 nd airborne has disappeared.They are going to do something they shouldn’t there soon. I think the Saudi’s mistakenly think that Iran won’t destroy Aramco no matter what they help the US do. They are wrong, this one is for all the marbles.
That is where the prediction for $ 200 per barrel is from.
By announcing it, they increased the stupid by several orders of magnitude.
If a competent military were to do something like what they are broadcasting that they intend to do, the first sign that the expeditionary force was on the way would be the preparatory bombardment, not a press release FFS.
Greg Stoker on twitter
@gregjstoker
Worth mentioning that sending in a Marine Expeditionary force was the opening deployment of the Vietnam War.
Trump reminds me of a man who once offered to send me a post dated check on a closed account “To show good faith”.
While Hegseth is roid-raging about Iranian leaders hiding like rats heres a video of Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking [calmly in the middle of a busy street] on Quds Day (DD Geopolitcs/Nitter)
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-makes-india-perform-in-a-circus-tent/
https://www.indianpunchline.com/iran-us-conflict-turns-into-prolonged-attrition/
Ambassador Bhadrakumar has some articles about India’s position
This comment has been removed because it was AI slop, which will not be tolerated.
Do we need Google AI to help us think?
The intakes will be underwater. Crude floats and evaporates and the residue flocculates into balls. These mostly beach themselves but presumably some sink and might be ingested.
The Gulf is a mere bathtub in ocean terms but it must be many magnitudes larger than any tanker. The solution to pollution is dilution.
There are 150 odd VLCC’s trapped in the Gulf. Even if Iran sank all of them, the beaches and sea bed may suffer but the water will be fine for osmolysing.
So Iran can target those tankers without having to worry it will deprive the other Gulf countries of water.
What about heavy crude?
Exactly. The intakes will also be baffled specifically to eliminate oil.
A really good engineer would use a horizontal well (or several) under the bottom sediment, using the sediment to filter out all kinds of potential contaminants.
Excellent point.Speaking with a high level employee of the Bahrain Water Authority earlier this week – he confirmed this overlooked point.While bomb damage etc. Is a major concern an oil spill from a destroyed tanker is the predominant concern.
Hegseth claims Khamenei injured
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/13/us-hegseth-claims-irans-new-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-injured
From Suhaib Al-Masalma – Israeli sources-assassination attempt at Iranian military intel meeting
Live feed, Google translate, home site – https://t.me/s/Sohaibpress
Why should anyone believe this ghoul? And besides, unless the injuries are fatal, he can serve in his position just fine. It’s not like he’s playing QB for the Minnesota Vikings. Bob Dole served in the US Senate for decades with war injuries.
Heh heh, paging John Fetterman.
Hegseth said Khamenei “is wounded and likely disfigured”.
Petey’s tattoo says hold my whiskey sour.
You know, this is the weirdest aspect of this nonsense. Why on Earth do Western warmongers think that taking heads of state out is enough to cause states themselves to crumble or change course?
That might have worked in the time of absolute monarchies when the preferences of the monarch could be enough to steer the ship of state. Frederick the Great’s Prussia being saved from capitulation by the death of Elizabeth of Russia because her successor was a Germanophile comes to mind. But even back then it was a rare event, and that successor was probably deposed shortly afterwards in part because of that. There was Ceausescu and perhaps Kim would be a contemporary case, but these fools are using exceptions as if they were the rule.
But generally? Not a chance, and yet they’re still trying like the idiots they are. What scares me is that if USrael gets convinced killing heads of state works, where does this stop? Erdogan? Putin? Xi?
I guess it’s another aspect of Orientalism. Just as they consider themselves “administrations” and “cabinets” and never “regimes”, they don’t realise that the reason their enemies don’t usually try to kill the Trumps and von der Leyens of this world is because they think about their approach to dealing with the West rationally, and know killing Trump would avail them nothing.
Someone’s been watching too many re-runs of Star Wars, Marvel and Lord of the Rings. Kill the big bad and the rest of the troops collapse.
I want to speak about the Strait of Hormuz from a personal and direct perspective, albeit over ten years ago. I sailed on a US container ship as a crewman, watch stander, many times on our route from New York to Singapore. That trip was a 60 to 70 day round trip with stops in Charleston, Savannah, Norfolk, Damietta Egypt (at the western end of the Suez Canal), Jebel Ali inside the Strait by Dubai, then Singapore, with stops on the way back at Sri Lanka and maybe Damietta again. So we came down the Red Sea past the congestion point there at Bab al Mandab and then turned to port up along the Yemen and Oman coast to the Strait of Hormuz. Once we landed at Salalah in Oman, where now the fuel tanks are blown up and burning.
Anyway the Strait is actually about 22 miles wide one coast to another, the northern coast being Iran, but the navigable portion is much less than that, about 12 miles. So on a clear day you can see both coasts easily. The strait has a lot of ships, but because it is twelve miles wide you can have a lot of ships and it doesn’t feel crowded. But Iran is CLOSE. Close.
When I sailed we also went into pirate watch down by Bab el Mandab, for about 24 hours, that was a process, but crossing the strait we just proceeded along, stayed watchful. Point is, it;s so close to the shore that shore batteries or launch points can hit anything, easily. Fast little boats can race out and in easily, and they are not that easy to see. Trump in the last day basically told mariners to buckle up and have some stones and just run the strait. Easy to say from Washington DC, not so easy to do when you are sitting on top of millions of gallons of oil or a ship which might burn and sink.
If the strait there is not considered secure, ships are not going to run it. Period. Look at how when the Houthis shot at some ships in the Red Sea all the container ships gave up on the Suez Canal and began running around Africa, thousands of extra miles. But safe. As long as there is a reasonable fear of mines, underwater drones, drones, missiles shot from fast boats, limpet mines, missles shot from shore, nobody is going to risk ships worth hundreds of millions of dollars carrying cargoes worth even more.
The cowboys and bros with Hegseth may think all we need to do is place a ground force on Iran immediately by the strait and capture that land to keep land-launched drones and missiles from direct eyesight launch, but the geography is bad – there are several islands, each of which would need to be taken, then behind the islands the mainland which contains at least two pretty big cities and at least one port, and all the area would have to be secured, absolutely, because while maybe missile batteries can be identified and removed, drones launched from garages and pickup trucks pretty much require searching and then isolating every single thing.
And, of course, let’s assume you can capture the land right around the strait. Which you cannot, but if you could….what’s to stop Iran from launching against ships anywhere along the additional 800 miles of Iranian coast along the north shore of the Persian Gulf? Nothing.
All of which to say. The strait is closed. It will stay closed. When and if the US Navy starts escorting ships then the Navy ships will get pasted too. I’ll bet that right now, even today, several of those oil countries along the Gulf are negotiating to build pipelines west to the Mediterranean Sea, anything to get out of that bottleneck.
Remember the old days, the old, old days, when to protect a harbor the best you could do is build a fort with cannons overlooking the entrance? Think, Fort Worden in Puget Sound. These days, ancient and obsolete technology. Then you have air power, planes dropping bombs, and we still have them, a bunch launched from multi billion dollar carriers right now near Iran. One of which has apparently been so damaged it is going home. Nobody really understands, not yet, not really, how fundamentally things have changed. Drones – meaning remote controlled little air machines or water machines or even land machines – have made forts, aircraft carriers, ships, even military bases all entirely vulnerable to destruction, and there seems nothing bombers and all the radars in the world can do to prevent it. And Iran is showing in this strait closure who absolutely fundamental the change has become.
Maybe reports that Iran is about to surrender are true, and all this will end and be seen as a bad dream. But unless and until Iran surrenders, that strait remains closed, and all the consequential impacts from that closure are going to roll down upon us like a slow moving avalanche, steady, inexorable, massive, and deadly.
Thanks. The Iranians also allegedly have speed boats that can submerge temporarily in order to attack close at hand with a cruise missile or torpedo.
All of this was known but Trumpenyahu thought regime change would take care of the problem. They are still trying to kill the new leader on the same brilliant theory.
Of course there’s always the secret weapon of cooperation and getting along with your neighbors and maybe some day Israel will try that. But then the neighbors might respond with their own cooperation in return and that would be an existential threat to the entire justification for Israel in the first place.
Thanks for that report.Then there are the Iranian submarines and I assume that they are in some sort of hidden submarine pen waiting to play their part.
That was a good read, thanks Boomheist.
Thanks for this. And the Iranians have strongly hinted they might act to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait too.
On Dialogue Works. Larry Johnson and Col. Wilkerson. utube, ~54+ minutes.
Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: U.S. KC-135 Down — Carrier Abraham Lincoln Hit by Missiles & Drones
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxecocoahPM
Juan Browne’s initial analysis of the KC-135 Mid Air Collision: https://youtu.be/elkutLRwKug
Good detail, such as explaining serial numbers. I was surprised that the rudder was controlled by a control tab, and not hydraulic powered actuators, but my oldest Boeing experience is 727-100s. Remember from the American Airlines Airbus A300 airplane that crashed over Queens NY that excessive rudder inputs from the pilots damaged the vertical stabilizer. I ran across a PPRUNE thread post on the crash from years ago that mentioned the KC-135 had a warning note added in the pilot’s manual that rudder reversion or overstress could also occur.
Enka style ballad for the MAGA crowd
Donald it hurts what you’ve done to me
I’d even call it a blasphemy
Now that you’ve told me the name of your true love
How I wish that you didn’t say what you said
Making America Great Again
I don’t know why you need that guy
Younger, stronger, a friend no longer
This bad boy you adore
Need much more
Leave me forever and run
To your Netanyahoo
He is soft and he is slippery
How I’ve admired the smirking stare
Of Netanyahoo, your Netanyahoo
Guess I thought the one he wanted was me
All those nights
We three hung around
How could I know you’d let MAGA down
You had feelings
For Netanyahoo
No one is a greater fool than me
This war’s a battle I don’t want to fight
I’ll be yelling far into the night
I’m in despair
What do you care
You never cared at all
Donald it hurts what you’ve done to me
I’d even call it a blasphemy
Now that you’ve told me the name of your new love
Since we met I’ve put up with a lot of things
Never the pain your new passion brings
I don’t know why you need that guy
Younger, stronger, a friend no longer
This bad boy you adore
Need much more
Leave me forever and run
To your Netanyahoo
Though he’s smart
He has an evil heart
Don’t you believe the honeyed words
Of Netanyahoo
Your Netanyahoo
Once the one who knew him better was me
As a friend
As a confidante
How can he be the one you want
How I hate him
Your Netanyahoo
So much more than if he was Hillary
Fly together in your fancy planes
Bomb together bringing the pain
I’m in despair
What do you care
You never cared at all
Donald I’m red and it’s you I blame
I want to puke when I say his name
Now I know why you’ve turned into a stranger
Should I smile and pretend that it’s really fine
Buy you two sweaters at Christmas time
Don’t make me lie
Go to your guy
Younger, stronger, a friend no longer
This bad boy you adore
Need much more
Leave me forever and run
To your Netanyahoo
Diane Michelle – Your Hiroshi
Music from “Magical Girl Pretty Sammy” ending theme
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOtSPMVdiRA
Trade is breaking
https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/the-iran-war-is-now-disrupting-global-trade-49eed95e?st=reBX5g&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Trump promises donors access to his private ‘National Security Briefings’ in New Fundraising Email
“You’ll get the inside scoop DIRECT from me, President Trump,” the email promised to supporters who quickly paid to become a “National Security Briefing Member”
https://people.com/trump-promises-donors-access-national-security-briefings-11925725
I seem to recall in the old days that that was called “inside trading”. Do those donors have to cough up money in order to attend? Why yes they do in a membership program. Who gets that money? Don’t know. Can you imagine the possibilities for leaks that will be happening?
This is the real BS to watch out for:
https://dnyuz.com/2026/03/13/wall-street-bankers-offered-lucrative-access-to-join-the-pentagon/
Wall Street Bankers Offered Lucrative Access to Join the Pentagon
The presentation emphasizes the access to information and the new relationships the move could offer new recruits, as well as subsequent opportunities for enrichment.
“If you ever want to raise your own fund, you will gain access to fund-raising channels that include royal families and foreign sovereign contacts,” the slide deck says. “Your exit opportunities will be exceptional, including the potential to launch a new fund with members of this team.”
“This is not a career move, but a two-year secondment, which could lead to several exciting exit opportunities,” it says, adding, “This is also an opportunity to serve your country.”
Aaron Bartnick, a former White House assistant director for technology security and governance under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., said the presentation raised major questions about how investment would be deployed, as well as how the department planned to offer salaries that would make the new recruits some of the highest-paid employees in the government.
“There is obviously potential for truly egregious corruption,” he said. “But an effort of this size has the potential to distort these national security-critical industries in ways that I don’t think anyone has seriously contemplated.”
Trump Says Iran War Will End ‘When I Feel It In My Bones’
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-war-ending-iran_n_69b4382ee4b09d87d02711b7
From Thursday evening “Inside Trump’s Head” Daily Beast podcast, Michael Wolff, quoting Jeffrey Epstein, asserted that DJT is not strong in the “executive function” department. Rational analysis of means and ends is evidently not how the decision will be made.
Wasn’t it just six hours ago that he said Iran was about to surrender? Referencing your post at 11:14 am.
The scorecard of lies is going to need a lot more pages.
Italy is out.
https://x.com/urgent_russiatv/status/203246216325248635
Two questions.
One: were they ever “in”? As in, were USrael using Italian assets and infrastructure to wage their aggression? Or is Meloni just offering a meaningless fig leaf to her electorate, who were already restive since de Gazan genocide?
Two: what are the details? Does she mean they won’t send ships and planes to the Middle East, or is she going to deny USrael use of any Italian bases, forbid Leonardo from selling Israel weapons (are they even a client) and all that might make a difference? Or is she just trying to build some plausible deniability and any measures will get riddled with loopholes, waivers and exemptions?
Good questions. Hopefully DJG will weigh in.
Another link,
Daniel Davis Deep Dive
X post with video.
Another link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/italy-isn-t-at-war-won-t-be-at-war-says-meloni?embedded-checkout=true
(The X link looks like it was deleted)
The MSM positioned Meloni as a “Trump Whisperer” – guess she’s shouting “no.” Looking forward (not really) to seeing how Trump rips her on his Truth Social id platform.
Meloni smelled the stink of failure more quickly than most in the EU, it will be interesting to see who follows suit and how quickly.
I’m looking forward to local takes. I imagine it reflects the opinion of the citizenry (irony alert).
The straights have been closed for two weeks and there’s no prospect that they’ll reopen soon. Yet oil is below $100. What is the explanation?
Just a guess, but Bessent does seem to have some experience with currency manipulation.
With currencies, he was pushing already weak ones lower. Here is would be fighting where investors want to go.
And with currencies, he could ride the momentum and close out positions profitably. Here, the point would be to fight the fundamentals.
Trump claims to have attacked Kharg. But seemingly not the oil stuff, just military. Posted 15 mins ago, which I think translates to 18.54 ET.
Still not gonna get any ships to go through the strait though.
And Iran still has escalation dominance against Israel and the Gulf states.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116224324444349237
Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my First Term, and currently, I rebuilt our Military into the Most Lethal, Powerful, and Effective Force, by far, anywhere in the World. Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it! Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East or, for that matter, the World! Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
He’s getting desperate. Figures that if he threatens Iran’s oil structure then they will open up Hormuz. I’m sure that all the Gulf states are on the blower telling him that if he does that, then Iran will destroy all their oil infrastructures meaning that they would have to pull out every investment that they have in the US to repair the potential damage. That is something that Trump might pay attention to.
Do you suppose the 5000 marines are headed to Kharg Island?
Fwiw, they are still 2 weeks away. Okinawa is far.
Yes, what is the stupidest thing that could possibly be done?
Anyone short the markets Friday PM? Insiders?
Man, I gotta get what shit this guy is smoking. He must be high as a kite all day long, every day. It is really quite striking.
It’s a shame all of the rest of us are the ones that bear the consequences, or it would be kind of funny.
I doubt that a single dose would do it. It may be an effect that gets stronger with decades of repeated use.
Not a direct IRGC source, but I think it’s legit. A more specific version of what the Iranians said on Thursday.
https://nitter.net/IbrahimMajed/status/2032552292684365992
Iran has issued threats and an evacuation order for American technology companies operating in West Asia, warning that their offices, data centers, and critical infrastructure could become potential targets amid the escalating conflict. The companies specifically mentioned include:
– IBM : regional enterprise services and cloud infrastructure in UAE and Israel
– Google : offices and cloud platforms in UAE, Israel, and other Gulf states
– Microsoft : data centers and corporate hubs across UAE and Israel
– Amazon / Amazon Web Services (AWS) : cloud operations and data centers in UAE and Bahrain
– Cisco Systems : networking and security infrastructure in Israel and Gulf states
– Palo Alto Networks : cybersecurity operations in UAE and Israel
– Oracle : enterprise software and cloud services in UAE, Israel, and Saudi Arabia
– Salesforce : CRM and cloud offices across UAE and Israel
– Adobe : digital solutions and offices in UAE and Israel
– Qualcomm : technology and R&D partnerships in Israel and UAE
– Dell Technologies : enterprise and data solutions in UAE and Israel
– Intel : chip and tech partnerships in Israel
– Apple : retail, corporate, and cloud partnerships across UAE
On this afternoon’s Danny Davis show, Robert Barnes predicts the Republican party will lose both the House and the Senate this fall and Trump will be impeached. It looks as if operation AIPAC Fury will be the cause and not save him. The link is here.
He also lined up Hegseth (‘Hegsdeath’), Bessent, and even Rubio for impeachment in the event of a mid-terms meltdown for the Republican Party.
US strike on Kharg Island
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/us-iran-war-live-updates-trump-says-war-will-end-when-i-feel-it-in-my-bones-all-six-crew-aboard-us-aircraft-killed-in-crash-over-iraq-20260313-p5oadx.html
Five US planes damaged at Prince Sultan
https://www.reuters.com/world/five-us-air-force-refueling-planes-hit-iranian-strike-saudi-arabia-wsj-reports-2026-03-13/
US attacks Iran’s Kharg Island, Trump says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-attacks-irans-kharg-island-trump-says-2026-03-13/
Five US Air Force refueling planes hit in Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/five-us-air-force-refueling-planes-hit-iranian-strike-saudi-arabia-wsj-reports-2026-03-13/
You now wonder about those two tankers that collided and why they did. It seems that a calculation has been made to go after as many aerial tankers as possible in order to cripple the reach that Israeli and US aircraft will have in going towards Iran. That is an enormous spanner that has been thrown into the the calculations and capabilities that the US/Israel have in running this war.
Vance watch (both from today):
– Vance addresses Trump comment he was ‘less enthusiastic’ about Iran war at the start
– Vance answers a question from a reporter at an event in SC regarding what he advised Trump on the Iran war
In both of these Vance smirks when asked the question and then proceeds to fully lay the blame for the fiasco on Trump in his typical bootlicking manner. Must watch IMHO for indicators of how this crisis will be unwound domestically.
Thanks RJ.
Seems to fit very much with the earlier observations of Vance staying as far away from this mess as possible, and our speculation about potential Thielish Takeover schemes.
Trump is self-immolating so hard they won’t even have to try hard!
At this point who (beyond the fully nutcase Zionists and a few boomer Americans) wouldn’t welcome Vance replacing Trump?
I know what Vance represents, and even I would feel relief. Admittedly I live far outside the US sphere, so my personal interest is mainly in foreign and trade policies, not US domestic dystopia.
I believe there’s a vote on the SAVE act this week, which seems like an important piece that needs to fall into place.
Interesting times indeed.
Exclusive: Iran lets two gas tankers sail to India through Hormuz, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-allows-two-gas-tankers-sail-india-through-hormuz-sources-say-2026-03-13/
Air freight rates soar as Middle East conflict blocks trade routes
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/air-freight-rates-soar-middle-east-conflict-blocks-trade-routes-2026-03-13/
Scoop: Trump rejected Putin offer to move Iran’s uranium to Russia
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/13/iran-nuclear-uranium-trump-russia-putin
The Oil Tankers Trump Seized Are Costing the U.S. Millions of Dollars
Although President Trump said seizing tankers would be a financial boon, the cost of maintaining just one aging ship has already reached $47 million.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/us/politics/trump-seized-oil-tankers-cost.html
Per CNN blog, can’t find any other details anywhere. “Considering” seems like a tease. Also reports around (sorry no link) that European nations including France are negotiating directly with Iran (bypassing the US) to get tankers through.
Iran is considering allowing a limited number of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan, a senior Iranian official tells CNN.
Danny Davis good short live on Kharg (12 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDMOZNEfgRU
Nutshell: he thinks the US bombing is a prelude to the US trying to take Kharg, and he thinks it’s a bad idea.
Breaks it down really clearly and simply.
Five U.S. Air Force refueling planes were struck and damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia , according to two U.S. officials.
The tankers were hit during an Iranian missile strike on the Saudi base in recent days, the officials said.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/177560#
… and apparently the US bombed Kharg Island from when Iran exports most of its oil.
There’s a flood of tweets claiming this latest USIA salvo will send oil over $200/barrel next week (IANAOT).*
* – I Am Not An Oil Trader
According to the Cradle
https://xcancel.com/TheCradleMedia/status/2032608074482016669#m
Potentially huge, if this continues. Forward air bases, not just in the ME, but really anywhere, have become too dangerous for US aircraft so we have become very reliant on aerial refueling. If any significant number of tankers are taken out, US ability to project power anywhere gets significantly eroded.
It does beg an interesting question: why are tankers operating from bases likely deemed too dangerous for tactical aircraft?
Trump Bombs Iran’s Kharg Island and Threatens to Hit Oil Exports
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Bombs-Irans-Kharg-Island-and-Threatens-to-Hit-Oil-Exports.html
Seems that Trump wants to drive up oil prices and lose more support for this adventure.
Four Chan had a NASA satellite map showing portions of the southern end of the island still burning as of around 8 PM EST, thought NASA has pulled the image (screen captures on 4Chan /pol for the crazy brave).
Always after markets close for the weekend, eh? If this pattern continues, I guess traders too clever by half will start moving early on in anticipation of the next Friday surprise.
Trump says U.S. ‘obliterated’ military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island but didn’t ‘wipe out’ oil infrastructure (CNBC)
You kinda gotta wonder what people were thinking in the lead up to WW1. Did you know when you’re in-it until it’s all over? Of course news traveled slower in that day.
Larry Johnson argues Iran was prepared for this, unloaded oil storage tanks prior to attack and have air defense back up on Kharg. https://sonar21.com/trumps-kharg-island-fantasy-all-bark-no-bite/
#Formula1
Races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia set to be canceled (via Reuters)
Will no one think of the poor money launderers?
LOL … well, an American company owns the franchise now … but yes, Iran has laid waste to Gulf sports-washing by taking out the richest sport hosted in the region.
For those with stronger psyches than me, Trump did his first sit-down “interview” of the war. With Jake Paul (YouTube idiot/grifter/pretend boxer). Paul has 21m YT subscribers, so this is an attempt to reach “MAGA men” directly. Presumably a lot of Paul subscribers are not close followers of the news so maybe it works in a limited way. Probably not gonna get the strait of Hormuz open tho, so ultimately irrelevant.
I got about 30 seconds in before the stupid made me turn it off.
This is the closest to the actual movie Idiocracy I’ve seen.
There’s probably a transcript somewhere but what’s the point?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsOW9x2sOKY (27 mins you’ll never get back)
Edit: that this is the only person they could find who wouldn’t ask Trump anything important says a lot. It’s pure state propaganda.
So a guy with white matter disease sits down to do some MAGA ‘splainin with a guy who gets punched for a living.
Okies.
I tried watching the link you provided, but WOW! I watched for a brief time. This is how Trump gathers support for his War? Did the discussion ever go anywhere related to current events?
Why isn’t Pete on the deck of an aircraft carrier cruising through the Strait? Getting all kinetic on the front line of freedom. Trump could fly in and watch from KSA.
Why not?
…and we’re back at war in Iraq!
The US, UK, and France are fighting the Popular Mobilization Forces. Somewhere in there might be that group of Israelis with the radar and jamming unit that the Iraqi Army was reported fighting a couple days ago.
This might be another possible destination for the 82nd Airborne Division, and Coalition-controlled areas in Iraq might perhaps be the only place they can safely disembark. Iraq might get a lot hotter this week.
B2 bombers were taking off 8 hours ago it seems. To bomb the island?
https://x.com/pallshailesh55/status/2032541615617876196
I am liking Daniel Davis more and more thanks to Yves constantly highlighting him.
I really like the way he always says “Trump’s war of choice”. Of course that’s what it is but is important to ram home to the Trump base, which I imagine Davis might even be part of? Hard to see him voting for Kamala.
It’s like the mantra phrase “Putin’s full scale invasion” in the MSM.
“Trump’s War of Choice”. I like it.
I have noticed that Democracy Now! YT videos also employ “full-scale” do describe the war.
Perhaps signaling that they disapprove of it as much as they do of Russian Federation’s Special Military Operation.
But, realistically, I don’t think US is actually any longer capable of “full-scale war” if, by “full-scale”, one means “industrial-scale” war. We are capable of relatively short duration “lightning wars”, after which we need to pause to replenish munitions inventories.
“Shock and awe” seems to be US version of “blitzkrieg”, but becomes problematic if the recipients are not shocked or awed.