[We have again launched this Iran war post before complete due to wanting to catch market action. And it may a bit telegraphic. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh browsers then for a final version]
As I have said, the best hope for ending the Iran war sooner rather than later is an investor revolt. That has finally started in a serious way, with the increase in oil prices over the weekend and the resulting dislocations in financial markets overseas during their Monday trading. The oil price surge to nearly $120 was merely blunted by report in the Financial Times that G7 finance ministers are meeting at 8:30 AM EDT to consider a release from their strategic petroleum reserves of about one-fourth of the total, or 300 to 400 million barrels. By way of comparison, US daily consumption is estimated at 20 million barrels, the EU’s 10 million, and India’;s 6.
And this emergency move would not address the rise in LNG prices due to operation halts in Qatar, nor the cascading effects of a Strait of Hormuz closure on other markets, from fertilizer (as in food production) to industrial chemicals to apparel. One site points out that heavy crude supplies the sulphur for sulfuric acid, which is deemed an essential chemical in electronics manufacture, for instance, in etching chips.1 Consider another real economy effect, effect, reported last week:
Aluminium Bahrain has declared force majeure on shipments due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, sending aluminium prices to a four-year high. The shipping paralysis, fueled by escalating regional conflict, threatens both global aluminium supply and Gulf food security.
Similarly, even after the oil-price-calming Financial Times report of an oil reserves release went live, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at| Swissquote noted that US natural gas was up 6%.
Bloomberg reported that Trump will address House Republicans at 8:AM EDT, and one assumes the Administration hopes that he can successfully calm rattled nerves and positive reports will leak from that meeting. Given how Trump has been ever more erratic and unhinged from reality, the odds are good that this session will be yet another own goal.
And even if these measures succeed in calming the markets for a bit, the impossible-to-deny underlying deterioration means that financiers will be unable to view the damage to the global economy as short-lived and will reprice assets accordingly. Even if Trump and Netanyahu were to experience a Damascene conversion and decided to stop fighting this week, all that would mean is Iran would halt its attacks. The US and Israel have been so persistently dishonest and duplicitous that Iran cannot trust that a stoppage by the US and Israel was anything more than yet another ruse, intended to get Iran to relax its vigilance.
Iran’s incentives now are to break the will of the US and Israel. That means it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until it can force a capitulation of some sort.That may come about via regime change or some other severe reduction in the freedom of operation of both Trump and Netanyahu due to powerful internal factions imposing discipline. But that is a political process and political time moves more slowly than financial time, and here probably also damage-to-the-real-economy time. Keep in mind, as we have explained longer-form in earlier posts, that closure of oil and gas production facilities produces compounding damage. The longer they stay shuttered, the longer it takes to get them back to full operation. The economic damage compounds over time.
To fill in more details, first on the markets front:
Bloomberg stated that Brent crude oil has come close to $119.50 a barrel before falling back (and I saw it in real time as over $119). Bizarrely, the Financial Times did not report the price action accurately:
Brent crude, the international benchmark, leapt 24 per cent in Asia trading on Monday to $116.71 a barrel but later fell back to be up almost 19 per cent at $110.85 after news of the G7 meeting. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, rose 28 per cent to $116.45 before falling back to around $108, up almost 19 per cent.
Further updates from Bloomberg at 7:00 AM EDT in Stocks and Bonds Slide Globally as Oil Tops $100: Markets Wrap:
Europe’s Stoxx 50 neared a correction, approaching a 10% drop from its February peak. The region’s bonds faced a steeper selloff than their US counterparts, with traders fully pricing in two European Central Bank interest-rate hikes and raising bets on a Bank of England move. The yield on two-year UK gilts jumped 21 basis points.
The dollar has risen on higher US interest rates and worries about prospects for Asian economies, which are particularly exposed to an energy price shock. The Nikkei dropped by 7% The KOSPI index in South Korea dived by 8% despite its government considering a domsestic oil price cap. Pakistan halted stock trading.
Gold also retreated. We have pointed out that during the crisis, gold prices often took a sudden leg down, which looked like leveraged traders dumping it as their presumed-least-distressed position so as to cover margin calls. The trigger now looks different. Bloomberg said that gold is stuck in Dubai and is “being sold at a discount as grounded flights make it harder to move the precious metal.”
Fresh updates on the Bloomberg live feed are not cheery. In the last hour:
Saudi Arabia Starts Oil Output Cuts as Storage Fills up
Hitting the wire:
• Witkoff, Kushner Visit to Israel Has Been Postponed: Axios
• Witkoff, Kushner Israel Trip Had Been Planned for Tuesday: Axios
• Axios Reporter Cites Israeli Official Familiar With the Matter
But also in the past hour:
Getting some readership on the Bloomberg terminal is a Washington Post opinion column by David Ignatius. He wrote:
“A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.”
Ignatius was clear to note that an official cited wasn’t speaking for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “who said Sunday that in the next phase of the war, Israel wants ‘to destabilize the regime, to enable change.’”
And a bit before that:
Fitch Ratings says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely temporary, regardless of how long the conflict may last.
Erm, this cheery view reflects a lack of perspective on the incentives in play.
Confirmation of our view of the potential downside of continued mayhem in the Middle East:
“This may be a war but it’s also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we’ve ever seen in modern history:” Mizuho’s Jordan Rochester. “Oil is now on a $100pb handle and it might be there to stay,” with greater likelihood of $130-150pb scenarios as time goes on.
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 9, 2026
And the news about energy production goes from bad to worse:
Trading.com CEO warns oil price likely to hit $150
Peter McGuire, CEO of Trading.com Australia, says the speed and volatility in oil price hikes are “dramatic”.“The most important thing at the moment is the velocity of what we have seen as far as movements to the upside,” McGuire told Al Jazeera, noting that as recently as Thursday oil prices were between $75 and $80, before suddenly jumping to $90 and then spiking as high as $116 in Asian trading today.
While the price has fallen back to about $106, “the volatility swings over a given hour is just dramatic – this will impact consumers and, in the long run, inflation if this was to last for weeks, or possibly a month or more”, he said.
And from the same feed:
Bahrain’s Bapco Energies declares force majeure
Bahrain’s Bapco Energies has announced force majeure on group operations, according to state media…
The announcement comes after thick smoke was reportedly seen rising from the direction of the Bapco oil refinery in the country.
A witness told Reuters that smoke surrounded the facility after the government earlier said injuries and damage were sustained in the Sitra area as a result of an Iranian drone attack.
Bapco is Bahrain’s main oil refinery and a key facility in its energy sector.
And again from Aljazeera:
Another busy night as wave of attacks targets Gulf countries
At around 03:15 local time (00:15 GMT), the threat level was elevated here in Qatar, and the alerts that we’ve been getting on our mobile phones went off.
A few minutes after that, we started to hear the sound of explosions that were due to interceptor missiles that were countering those missiles coming in from Iran. We heard the sounds of about 12 to 13 explosions. Then, about 10-15 minutes after that, the threat level was lowered again, with the alerts saying the threat had been eliminated.
The Ministry of Defence also issued a statement saying the armed forces had intercepted a missile attack targeting Qatar.
Beyond what’s happening in Qatar, there’s also been another wave of attacks in other countries throughout the region emanating from Iran.
In Bahrain, at least 32 citizens, including children, were injured in an Iranian drone attack on Sitra, an area south of the capital, Manama, according to state media.
In the United Arab Emirates, it’s been another busy night and morning for them countering attacks, with the Ministry of Defence saying air defences were responding to incoming missile and drone threats from Iran.
We also know that there was a fire in the Fujairah oil industry zone that was the result of debris falling from an intercepted drone.
#Iraq’s oil production has collapsed by about 60% as the Iran war means there aren’t enough tankers to load the nation’s crude.
The country is now pumping about 1.7 million to 1.8 million barrels of oil every day, down from about 4.3 million a day before the conflict began,…
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) March 8, 2026
The BBC live feed focused more on Trump than the Gulf but also reported on the fresh strikes. In its summary section:
US President Donald Trump says the “short term” price increase is a “a very small price to pay” for world peace
And a key update:
Ending war will be ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu, Trump says
US President Donald Trump says a decision on when to end the war with Iran will be a “mutual” one he will make with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a report by the Times of Israel.< Trump, who was speaking in a phone interview, said the pair had "been talking", adding that he would "make a decision at the right time". Asked whether Israel could continue the war against Iran if the US decided to stop its strikes, Trump declined to entertain the possibility, adding: "I don't think its going to be necessary". When asked about Mojtaba Khamenei being named as the country's new supreme leader, Trump also declined to comment, saying: "We'll see what happens". Trump has previously made his opposition to Mojtaba known, saying: "Khamenei's son is unacceptable to me".
The Financial Times feed included account of both fresh Israeli and Iranian strikes plusthis fresh item:
EU dismisses concerns of European oil shortage
The European Commission dismissed fears of an oil shortage as a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East.
“There is no imminent oil supply shortage in Europe . . . we do not see any concern or emergency situation at the moment,” commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said.
“We are far less concerned about the security of supply than we are of high energy prices,” Itkonen said.
Erm, I had not heard anyone expressing concerns about an EU oil shortage. Gas may prove to be another matter.
The vicious strike on oil facilities in Tehran will only further harden Iranian resolve:
I don’t think you understand how catastrophic the oil refinery bombing in Tehran is.
Burning petroleum releases sulfur and nitrogen oxides that mix with rain to form sulfuric and nitric acid, essentially turning rainfall toxic.
When Saddam burned Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991,…
— Ariana Jasmine (@arianajasmine__) March 8, 2026
Douglas Macgregor reported an hour ago that Israel was under fresh Iran air strikes, after this Hindustan Times video published:
I do not want to become unduly hopeful, but reader raspberry jam, who know more than a little about Israel, described what might lead the settler colony to throw in the towel on Project Iran. From comments yesterday:
raspberry jam Ok this is what Iran needs to be doing to drive Netanyahu to the bargaining table (visible strikes in civilian areas that can’t be obscured by censorship). In the last few days of the 12 days last summer it was the residential blocks getting hit in Allenby (upper class neighborhood in central Tel Aviv) that led to normal Israelis accepting maybe they were out of their depth. They didn’t know about the lack of interceptors. Netanyahu was under serious pressure to stop the strikes after it was clear civilians were not safe
And:
raspberry jam On a personal level I absolutely agree. But as an observer with more familiarity with Israel itself and the current political climate, right now I don’t see a clear path to getting there from here. If you believe (as I do) that much of what is driving Netanyahu’s actions is staying out of prison due to his ongoing corruption trial that keeps getting delayed by war-driven states of exception (I think it was telling that on day 3 or 4 Trump was bleating at Herzog again to pardon Netanyahu immediately “so he could focus on the war”), then I see only a handful of routes for Israel to stop: – Jerusalem is flattened, including the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa and the Knesset: extremely unlikely IMHO
– Netanyahu is assassinated: 40%, either by Iran before the end of hostilities or by the Kahanist/settler faction shortly after if he cuts the war short
– Netanyahu is arrested: 30%, requires significant military backing in addition to factional cohesion by the non-Kahanists in power, something that has not yet been in evidence the last 5+ years (but Bennett appears to be maneuvering)
– Netanyahu is removed in a military coup: 10%, may be possible if there are enough high ranking officers who refuse to follow orders to preemptively use the nukes
– Enough civilian infrastructure (not necessarily casualties) is destroyed to destroy the fantasy of Israeli air defense during wars on seven fronts: 90%, it was how the war last summer ended (it will be spun as some form of victory or blaming the Iran populace for not rising up when given the option to lay the foundation for a future round)
Janta Ka Reporter, which I like due to its showing extended clips, highlights yet more Trump insanity as well as the degree to which UK elites, as demonstrated by the BBC, are still all in for Israel
An important story that is likely not to get the circulation it deserves, from Aljazeera in Israel unlawfully used white phosphorus in Lebanon: HRW
In a new report released on Monday, the New York-based rights group said it confirmed the authenticity of seven photos showing white phosphorus munitions fired over a residential area in southern Lebanon’s Yohmor, with fires breaking out in at least two homes there on March 3….
The use of airburst white phosphorus is unlawfully indiscriminate in populated areas and does not meet the requirement under international humanitarian law to take all feasible precautions to avoid civilian harm.
The chemical substance ignites when exposed to oxygen and can set homes, agricultural areas, and other civilian objects on fire.
HRW found that in Yohmor, the munitions were used unlawfully over concentrations of civilians, which resulted in fires breaking out in homes and other civilian property.
And for some comic relief:
_____
1 There are no doubt alternative sources for sulphur, but it would take time to increase production and get them integrated into supply chains
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Got some unclosed link tag in the update.
Thanks for the hard work, Yves and all.
” It will be remembered as the moment the world discovered that the global energy system’s most critical chokepoint is governed not by navies but by actuaries”
“The market is not pricing a war. It is not pricing a chokepoint closure. It is not pricing a nuclear crisis. It is pricing a legacy framework in which these events are temporary, resolvable, and mean-reverting. The mechanism analysis establishes they are structural, self-reinforcing, and regime-changing. The gap between what the market believes and what the evidence demonstrates is the alpha.”
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance
Old man shakes fist at cloud, but it grinds my gears that what may be good content is edited/rewritten by AI.
This article isn’t the worst example, but the signs are still there.
I just can’t read it.
What are the tipoffs?
We featured this article two days ago, and got it thanks to a reader pointing us to it in comments.
Alexander Mercouris has already mentioned it in his last 2 talks, crediting us for sending it
I have had to since point out in yesterday’s post that despite all the very impressive industry knowledge on display, the core claim is wrong, that insurers would not write war risk riders until well after the war was over. They are writing it now, albeit at high prices and on what may be a limited basis.
>despite all the very impressive industry knowledge on display, the core claim is wrong
AI writing in a nutshell, no?
No, this was written by a real person. Lotta complicated stuff about industry structure. AI is shitty at complex relations. Can’t even do a tax return correctly.
Also the writing style was eccentric, a global macro guy larding into jargon and tech speak when not necessary. AI would not write like that.
His bad assumption, which led to his bad conclusion, was that industry reserves were too depleted to write more war risk cover.
But at what price is the war risk coverage? If excessively high the conclusions may not be incorrect.
Oh, I agree but the commentary so far is not in line with that. There are brokers trying to line up coverage at the current prices.
Thanks for this reply. It showed me I was both over-caffeinated and had spent too long ingesting information. Brain needed some nature to slow down.
a strategic release only kicks the can when wells get shut-in, and only works assuming a month-long disruption. what if this lasts”only” 6 months?
and given the bad faith actions of the West, don’t count China on making any large releases. As I assume that their reserves will be for actual shortages or refinery rebalancing, not merely a 60%YTD risee in price
“The market traded the headline. It has not traded the arithmetic.
Zero P&I clubs have formally reinstated standard war-risk coverage. The DFC’s $20 billion facility has not produced confirmed insured transits at scale. The 31 IRGC provincial commands remain autonomous and active. The interceptor inventory continues depleting at cost ratios of 190 to 1. None of these structural conditions changed between the $119 high and the $103 settle.
What changed was a headline about a meeting that has not happened, discussing a release that has not been authorised, of reserves that cover days not months, from stockpiles that cannot be refilled while the chokepoint remains closed.” fron the same shankaanslemperera.substack
Cluster bomb strikes in central Israel a few hours ago hit without sirens or advance warning based on dashcam video that is leaking censorship. Check the second video in this tweet, a guy was walking on the street when the munitions dropped. No sirens! This was linked from the regime mouthpiece Times of Israel so it is being seen wide in Israel
https://x.com/manniefabian/status/2030964041712058511
The game is changing…
Thanks for the link. Larry Johnson guessed that cluster munitions are about 10 to 15 pounds of explosive each. The explosion in the second vid looks to be on the low end of that range. The IRBMs that delivered the first cluster munitions to Tel Aviv have a payload of over 3000 pounds.
The cluster missiles have 8 strings of 10 sub-munitions, I.e. 80 sub-munitions. 80*15 = 1,200 lbs of explosive. Could the rest just be taken up with the cluster bomb casings, strings etc? If each bomblet has say 15lbs explosive and 10lb case and 15lb share of the stringer, that’s 40lbs * 80 = 3,200 lbs.
TANSTAAFL – the reduction in interceptability of clustering is matched by a reduction in useful payload.
Yes. The casings are part of the munition, as they break into shrapnel large and small to cut into things that are blast resistant. In order to be effective shrapnel, casings are generally steel, thus the weight.
E.G. The Shahid drones carry approx. 90kg of explosive, which is roughly the same explosive load as a 500 pound GP bomb or 5- 155mm artillery shells, but have very little built in shrapnel.
Postol has pointed out that many of the vehicles released are decoys, and if that is true, then the number of submunitions in each warhead are likely fewer the total number of items released.
The explosions in the videos do not appear to be game changers.
Cluster munitions are much, much more effective against most targets than a single large warhead. This is why the US, Russia, Isr, etc. will not sign on to the treaty that bans them.
Further, the size of the explosion is not indicative of the effectiveness. My direct experience as a field artillery spotter is that a miss with an explosive munition looks far more impressive than the hits. Postal describes this in his recent interviews.
Great response, thank you.
So Iranians got the radar systems in Negev after all, then?
I won’t link the video due to the no AI policy here, but over the weekend Iran released another Lego agitprop video that is extremely entertaining. It is on YouTube and was linked in the comments in the daily links post yesterday. Be sure to check the final few strikes in it for what is next if Israel/US don’t back down
I sent that link to a friend. I think parody a legitimate use of generative AI so here it is for those interested.
https://www.swentr.site/news/634174-iran-us-lego-video-pr-war/
As for battle damage assessment, I think this is important: Iran bombed the power station for Tel Aviv last night. This was from DD Geopolitics via Armchair Warlord, both reliable commentators, but I have not seen this reported elsewhere (but, you know, censorship….)
https://nitter.poast.org/DD_Geopolitics/status/2030842224418951402#m
They may have bombed a power station on Tel Aviv last night but it did not prevent the ~25 or so Tel Aviv residents I spoke to today at various times on Zoom from working in the office in downtown TLV or from their homes in the city and suburbs. Just a caution against premature assumption of victory. Russian deenergizing campaign on Ukraine has been running for years (granted ukr orders of magnitude larger). That caution aside this is a great development
Shocking that these people are probably in the last weeks of their society-as-they-know-it if not their lives and are having zoom meetings about TPS reports instead of running out to Canada Park with friends and family to smell the imported trees and hug and squeeze every last drop out of life. Thank you raspberry for showing us what the apocalypse looks like in the real world.
Russia hasn’t been trying to completely remove Ukraine energy production.
Only this winter did they get serious about permanently degrading energy production and even then they stopped short of the total collapse point.
If I try to put myself in the position of the Iranian leadership, it’s hard to imagine what sort of ironclad guarantees you could conceiveably get.
Iran has developed a very effective strategy for survival, but do they know what they want to achieve with a victory???
They’d probably want full sanctions relief, sure. But, they’d also need US withdrawal from all the bases in the region, and some sort of restriction on the Israeli Air Force. Would they be willing to restart the war once Israel was obviously rearming?
They’re going to find themsleves in the same sort of thorny spot that the Russians are in. They need regime change in some of the Gulf states, and maybe in Israel, itself, in order to be able to claim a lasting end to the war, and avoid having to do this all over again in 2 years.
The political sentiment in the west is nowhere near ready for compromise. Western elites don’t even think they’re losing the war.
Declarations of force majeure by oil producers will be mirrored by a political equivalent to wind this down. As raspberry jam’s review of options suggest, the gangsterism of the US and Israel has put them in a box, or a coffin.
‘Nightmare scenario’ looms as global markets head for the biggest oil output disruption in history, top energy guru warns
https://fortune.com/2026/03/08/oil-prices-nightmare-scenario-biggest-output-disruption-us-iran-war/
This is a very good point that deserves further discussion.
In my view Iran cannot trust either the US or Israel to honor *any* negotiated settlement that leaves in place the existing military-political structure of the region. They know that, regardless of whatever settlement is reached, the US and Israel will find a pretext to violate it in another six months to a year, and will in the interim continue to work to undermine the Iranian state via sanctions, assassinations, funding of proxies, etc.
This means that Iran *must* be committed to the successful alteration of the military-political structure of the region as the desired outcome of the war.
I believe Iran is trying to undercut the ability of the US to continue to hold military bases throughout the region, and is doing so not only by destroying those bases but by demonstrating to the countries hosting them that the costs of US occupation exceed the benefits by a large margin.
I believe that Israel is also trying to force an internal rupture in the Israel state. Knowing of Israel’ deep political and social divisions, Iran is trying to leverage them by causing maximum damage to what remains of Israel’s social cohesion as well as the myth of Israel’s ability to guarantee security for its own civilians, regardless of what Israel does to its neighbors. The aim here is not only to somehow manage to destroy Netanyahu’s coalition, but to force a significant internal recalibration of Israel’s domestic politics.
I believe both these goals are ambitious and will prove difficult to realize. I also think that the realization of either goal will require a long war—months or years rather than weeks.
Iran has launched nearly twice as many strikes on UAE than Israel: Iran’s strategy is to attach the soft underbelly of US middle east policy, the oil monarchies.
It wants to force the monarchies to give the US an ultimatum: agree a new peace settlement including Iran or we will make you (by imposing an OPEC embargo on you and Israel, maybe on the west as a whole). At the point of an OPEC embargo, Russia might join in too, asking for settlement in Europe.
The irony is, they may be kicking at an open door. There’s a plausible school of thought that the US has started this war to embargo oil itself, as part of a plan to loot its vassals and retreat to its own hemisphere. A settlement where the US retains economic interests (Ukraine transit pipelines, production agreements in Gulf and Iran) and dollar recycling but drops its military commitments so it can focus on China might be just what it wants!
Not without a MICC to replace lost munitions, where Russia is already outproducing the West by order of magnitude, and China’s industrial base is…. compared to Russia. Those Tomahawks and JASSMs and PACs, and radar’s for fighter planes are never coming back without Chinese rare earths. Several dozen THAAD interceptors a year after 4 years of trying to increase production, even with Chinese rare earths… Well, the donkey is out of the barn even if the farmer doesn’t know it…
This.
It’s the Fall of the Moron Empire, whether or not most of the imperials understand this yet.
What the Chinese have to calculate is how to forestall a US effort analogous to that of the Japanese in 1941.
Seems to me that Iran has taken very long view in history. Is very historic.
And, ask them, God is on THEIR side.
USrael is like MIC-stockbroker… with Oil prices up, shock doctrine destabilization, and munitions orders ad infinitum, its a S L I C C !
Minsk II, JCPOA, going Pearl Harbor during a recess, etc.
And returning to the status quo antebellum = “merely” living a miserable life of sanctions for Iran.
Strategically speaking, they can possibly stop without a definitive win, just when they have caused enough pain to make the west not want to attack them again – which probably means not just temporary political costs, but big financial interests issuing a no fucking way we open this up again declaration – i.e. gulf states, whose $$ I assume the west wants to keep getting.
But thats not accounting for vengeance and higher goals. Does Iran want to push this to the point where the US has to leave the middle east? Israel is destroyed? They will get nuked if it looks ‘existential’ for Israel right?
Also depends on US / Israel having some will to deescalate and an exit path of their own – both of which seem lacking, besides just Trump declaring victory and walking away, whistling with his hands in his pockets?
Destroyed US bases, unrest in Iraq, Bahrain, etc, who knows maybe this all has a momentum of its own, but its hard to get too giddy knowing that US/Israhell will not lose without extracting a heavy price somewhere.
I can’t help but think that a credible ability to strike Israel with a nuclear weapon has to be part of Iran’s long-term survival strategy.
“it’s hard to imagine what sort of ironclad guarantees you could conceiveably get.”
When Iran’s $100 Billion of frozen assets are verifiably unfrozen, you can assume that the US and Israel are serious about deescalating…and have been humiliated
I’m not yet convinced by Iran’s strategy for survival. They may end up winning this war, but losing the peace. The US and Israel will recover much faster after the dust settles and the smoke clears and Iran’s economy will be in tatters. The population which was already testy before the war will be fully disgruntled. It’s still not clear what their endgame for this war is. For Israel, the objective is Libya on the Persian Gulf. IMO, Iran should have the same objective for Israel.
I disagree vehemently.
Not long after October 7, when the exodus of “talent” started from Israel, a top Israeli (and not anti-genocide) economist warned that Israel depended on 300,000 professionals, and if enough left, Israel was done. Would not be able to function adequately.
As for the US, it is hollowed out, with a population with poor average reading and reasoning skills among the young, obesity, a poor health care system, a hollowed-out industrial base, too much private debt, a government that prizes ideology and PR over expertise, deep social divisions, and fragile supply chains. I had predicted Russia in the 1990s outcomes. This war will greatly accelerate their arrival.
Iranian are the highest average IQ population ex Japan and China. They have the oldest civilization ex China. Their Shia faith means they can take pain like no other people. And as Alexander Mercouris pointed out, winning wars strengthens a society, even if it comes at a cost. Losing does the reverse.
Yes, I know, and I am very wary of disagreeing with someone who is smarter than me and has a greater overview of all the issues at play, but I fear for what Iran will look like after the war.
The burning oil over Teheran can have decades of impacts. Water issues will be like nothing the country has faced before – and sure, the GCC member states will collapse first because theirs will be worse.
Oil will pollute the air, it will pollute the sea, where it will jam the desalination plants, if any are left standing. And this is just after the first week of war. Who knows what evil the Epstein regime will unleash in the weeks to come?
The victory may be Pyrrhic and harmony between the Persian plurality and significant Azeri, Kurdish, and Baluchi minorities may not resist the tensions that post-war conditions will create, absent significant reparations from the US, which I don’t see as likely.
Russia lost 27 million in its Great Patriotic War. You seem to forget that we poisoned the Japanese with nuclear radiation at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And previously provided chemical weapons to Iraq to kill Iranians and did so in large numbers. Sayed Mohammed Marandi was gassed 2x.
Marandi also discussed that Iran could survive the nuclear bombing of Tehran.
IMHO what you are really saying is Americans have no experience with large-scale suffering and would fall apart if that happened to us now. Other people are not so soft.
And you might add we inflicted one of the most intense bombing and napalming campaigns on Vietnam for nearly 10 years, along with poisoning large areas of their country with a known carcinogen–dioxin–from Agent Orange. The Vietnamese defeated the US when we still had a substantial industrial base and a very large military due to the draft, and over 500,000 troops in the field. The US lost its appetite for American casualties after that war, so now the US depends on stand-off bombings and missile attacks to avoid downed and captured pilots.
That is actually a MUCH better example and I am chagrined for not having mentioned it. We did vastly more damage relative to the size and wealth of Vietnam than the other cases mentioned. And Japan was a belligerent, while we intervened in a civil war because communism.
Also, the US helped rebuild Japan after the war, which is unlikely in the case of Iran to say the least.
Each of those contexts is wildly different, though, and Vietnam was a reunification of a people. Iran might end up a partition, especially since there was already discontent before the war, albeit hugely overblown by western media.
Additional examples why Vietnam is a relevant example; the kill counts were fabricated, the intelligence was fanciful at best, and most of the troops didn’t want to be there.
This is just a little carping, but the “oldest civilisation” trope is more posturing than a real anthropological concept.
To begin with, how do we count “oldest”? True, Chinese oracle bone script can be read by present-day specialists, which means there’s a faint linguistic connection between nowadays and the late Shang period around 1000 BCE. But honestly, the same applies to the faint cultural connection between today’s India and the Vedic period from around 1200 BC. Lots of scholars can still read Sanskrit.
Is Chinese civilisation even continuous? Han identity is a relatively modern construct. Yuan and Qing periods represented an institutional rupture that was back-reinterpreted as continuity. The Imperial Examination System lasted a thousand years, but it’s gone. Confucianism? It’s younger than Zoroastrianism.
If we use the broadest possible definition of a civilisation, “a region where people live in cities, practise agriculture and write”, then Iran starts from the Elamite Period and it’s two thousand years older than China. But we can argue more cogently that Iran is pretty continuous as a polity (at least as much as China) since the Medan Confederacy from around 650 BCE.
I read that even the concept of civilisation is kinda outdated, anyway.
I’m sorry I’m using your comment to vent on this, but at different times we see Iran, India and China touting themselves as the “oldest civilisation”, and I take it to imply, “we’re resilient” or “we know one or two things about how to run a society” or “our values aren’t fickle”. And I tend to think these ideas are always being palmed off in the service of some (legitimate) agenda. Useful fictions, so to speak.
Kinda surprised that Egyptians don’t say it more often, though, their claim is as good as any. Probably because Christianisation and Islamisation were dramatic breaks with the past, and hieroglyphs died. Which is unfair, given that China, India and Iran have gone through equally dramatic ruptures and transitions.
Otherwise, I agree with the spirit of the comment. Iran is much more prepared for the resilience game than the US, or Israel for that matter.
I thought Egyptians DO say it as often, at least as often as Iranians, as do Lebanese and Syrians (the Phoenicians, yo!) I figure that we hear about the Chinese and Indians more because of their ambitions if being global powers.
My view is that every civilization is ancient, because we all had ancestors even tens of thousand of years ago. It’s not too helpful to accept some countries’ versions of national myths as somehow more legitimate than others’. But it is true that some myths mske better propaganda than others’ for modern audiences…
The way my dad told me this somewhere around the turn of 1970-80’s was that China, Iran and Russia as entities are old enough to understand there are good times and there are bad times which gives them a much longer perspective so they don’t get their panties in a twist when things seem to go sideways.
Or maybe it’s just an inherent understanding of the Lindy-effect: if it has been around for centuries, it’s likely to be around for centuries more.
I suppose the major difference is that Persians uninterruptedly continued speaking their own language (from old Persian through middle Persian to modern Persian), as did the Chinese.
On the other hand, the Egyptians essentially stopped speaking their language; Coptic is the descendent of the original language spoken in Egypt, but is only used by a minority of the population and is at risk of devolving into a purely lithurgic language (like Hebrew 2000 years ago).
Likewise, Lebanese speak Arabic, not a descendent of Phoenician or Aramaic (or even Greek). Syrians, except for a dwindling minority, speak Arabic, not Syriac (a descendent of Aramaic).
Actually, Iran exhibits other aspects that depart from the cultural break induced by Islam in other countries:
1) The traditional festivities such as Nowruz, Chaharshanbe Suri, Shab-e Chelle date back to the Achaemenids, are linked to Mazdaism, and are amongst the most popular in Iran.
2) The very specific clerical organization prevalent in Iran, with its hierarchy of progressively theologically more erudite and authoritative grades is clearly reminiscent of the similar hierarchy for the Mazdaist priesthood.
3) Even the constitution, based on the Velayat-e Faqih placing the clerics atop the governmental organization, finds traces back in the Antiquity, since at some point the Mazdaist priesthood took over the rule of Persia from the Shah.
In that sense, Iranians (and Chinese) have a point about having a longer civilizational continuity than other Near Eastern peoples.
Thank you, vao, they have great cultural continuity. The point on traditional festivals overcoming the religious break is insightful.
“Imperial Examination System lasted a thousand years, but it’s gone”. Tell that to the hundreds of thousands of graduates trying their mettle each year to enter in the central government through examination. Guokao (国考), which translates to the “National Civil Service Examination” or “National Public Service Exam”. I know Canada has something similar.
All talk of “guarantees” is just rhetoric. There are no guarantees – people change their minds and that changes governments. Just look at the hapless UN – they should have been sending in troops to stop what are clearly Zionist war crimes, but they do not.
Were I Iranian leadership, I’d start with asking for Bibi’s head on a platter, literally if necessary. He’s already wanted in his own country and with enough missiles, I’d imagine Iran could eventually persuade Israel to prosecute him and remove him permanently.
I would also demand that the Zionist entity, if it wants to continue its existence, be subject to IAEA weapons inspections. No more pretending they don’t have nukes. No more exceptions from the laws other nations are expected to abide by.
That would be for starters.
Better to wait until Israel is totally wiped out and is occupied (re-taken) by Palestine (this is important) before any compromise.
I would assume that Iran would make clear that breaking the deal closes the straits. No need to restart the war.
But would a deal include Gaza? Lebanon? West Bank? Problem is Israeli belligerence, expanding internally/externally to bring about gods will.
They would need regime change in the US as well.
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>>>Ending war will be ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu, Trump says
when I thought W Bush destroyed the GOP for 20 years, Obama showed up and restored the status quo.
Now Trump is speedrunning W Bush’s record. Now who’s going to be the Democrat who botches this too? lol
De-escalation dominance? One party seems to be left out of that formula.
This Trumps says Republicans need to “take over” the elections.
I think you would agree that the “Republican vs. Democrat” kayfabe is just theater for the masses. But since you mention W and Obama, it is relevant to note that there is a (slightly) more “realist” faction within our foreign policy establishment that has sometimes resisted the dominant neocons in both parties. Recall that the hard core ideologues during the Bush administration were pushing hard to extend the war to Iran even as Iraq continued to boil. The “realists” (I use this term in a very limited and relative sense) finally prevailed, which was related to Rumsfeld’s resignation. Something similar occurred when Obama pulled back at the last minute and refused to bomb Syria over the (fake) gas attack by Assad, and then made a deal with Russia to stabilize the situation. He also expended considerable energy and political capital to get the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran passed. These moves infuriated Israel and the neocons. But they did, temporarily, prevent even larger scale chaos and destruction.
For me, our only slim hope is if the “realists” in our Establishment are convinced that it is time to cut our losses. Yves’ discussion of the economic consequences of our latest neocon war is directly relevant to this issue. On the other hand, the eventual fate of Syria and our current attempt to finish off Iran demonstrate that the roots of neocon influence are deep and persistent. It is a cancer that continues to metastasize – I keep using this analogy but I can’t think of one more fitting. They will keep popping up unless and until they are completely cut out of our system – and I’m not sure that is possible at this point.
“…roots of neocon influence are deep and persistent…a cancer that continues to metastasize…”
could the same be said of neolib influence? – could it go all the way back to the machinations of Robert Hannegan (St Louis party boss), Ed Flynn (Bronx party boss) and Ed Kelly (Chicago party boss) to keep Henry Wallace from being the VP for FDR in his run for a 4th term knowing he would die in office? – conservatives, nascent neolibs, in the Democratic party bristled at Wallace’s ideas of desegregation of public schools, racial and gender equality, a national health-insurance program, and other left-wing policies – i am not as astute as most in the commentariat at detailing the political progression of neolib policy which Clinton juiced on steroids during his 2 terms, and which continued to metastasized during every Dem administration since, but it seemed socialistic momentum was lost with FDR’s death and Truman’s election – we could discuss JFK & Bobby, but we know what happened to them – like you pjay i think the hope for “realists” may not be possible at this point – the game is rigged by the oligarchs – but anything is possible with the ’empire’ burning itself to the ground as the Epstein class throws gasoline on this fire – a phoenix may rise from the ashes – but then there is what we have done and continue to do to the environment – time to pet my pooch and go prune my fruit trees and hope that this unusual warm spell in Michigan doesn’t have an adverse affect – Yves, thank you so much for this blog, your work and this commentariat has preserved my sanity for the last decade and provided perspective – as well as knowing that i’m not the only voice crying out in the wilderness –
Biden Regime has already done that. And I view Obama as the first black Republican president. The problem is the Republicans are still so bigoted he couldn’t run as a Rep. He stated his admiration for Reagan. He continued all of Bush’s war spending operations, rescued the banks, implemented Romney care.
US President Donald Trump says a decision on when to end the war with Iran will be a “mutual” one he will make with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from the Times of Israel, an open admission by Trump that Netanyahu has got him by the short hairs?
I’m pretty sure that’s an admission he’s violating the constitution … allowing a foreign power to drag us into war … where is Congress? Not that it matters in a practical sense, we have gutless weasels like Mike Johnson and Hakeem Jeffries running Congress for the benefit of MegaDeath, Inc.
There’s that but it’s also remarkable that he’s even talking about how and when to end the war. Until I saw that it was all confidence, brags, vanity and we’re the bestest.
I wasn’t sure if this was another instance of the West being obsessed with negotiating with itself or an admission that Israel is the real enemy of the US….
The enemy always has a say in war. So what will Trump give Iran (recall the many years of the Iran-Iraq war) and Isreal (the true enemy is the ziocons in the US oligarchy) in exchange?
Short and curlies. If you don’t mind.
It’s cute that he still thinks he and Bibi will be the ones who decide when this war stops.
Yes, this is what Iran said from the outset. I think for the foreseeable future, the big decisions will get made via “if you don’t like it, then fight me.”
We’re taking Maduro, if you don’t like it, fight me. We’re taking Cuba, if you don’t like it, fight me. Iran says US bases must be removed from the region, if you don’t like it, fight me. Russia says no NATO and no Nazis in Ukraine, if you don’t like it, fight me.
It wasn’t possible for many reasons until fairly recently for countries to say that definitively, but deals and diplomacy are now only possible between the agreement capable countries.
‘Saudi Arabia Starts Oil Output Cuts as Storage Fills up’
I was listening to a video about two or three days ago when they talked about this.They said that the Saudis have six major tanks and that four of them were already full while they others were being rapidly filled. After that, there is no where else for that oil to go so oilfields will have to be shut down which is not an ideal situation as it takes a lot of work to properly restart them again. On Friday oil was at $90 and now on Monday it is at $120. How high will it go when the traders stop believing Trump’s utterances and realize that this is actually a systematic situation and not just a blip? To the Moon, Alice. To the Moon.
I don’t know why, but in the US I am surrounded by people who fully understand timing in their own field, more or less, yet believe the oil industry, agriculture, and scientific research can be stopped and started just like when you stop vacuuming to answer to the door and chat with a neighbor, and then just go back inside and finish vacuuming up dog hair in the living room.
” the residential blocks getting hit in Allenby (upper class neighborhood in central Tel Aviv) that led to normal Israelis accepting maybe they were out of their depth”
It is always a good idea to bomb upper-class neighbourhoods if you want to get anything done in an another way.
They should hit Rehavyia in Jerusalem, I think Netanyahu has a personal residence there
With the accuracy of their missiles, they should destroy all of Netanyahu’s residences around Israel. Let him know that they are gunning for him and that his bunker is now his new home.
He’ll always have Miami. His wife and war avoiding son are already there along with a phalanx of guards (according to reports).
Feel free to bomb his residencies in Miami too. Iran has shown that they have precision drones that can take them out without hurting civilians.
If they can do that, they should include Trump’s country clubs. That should minimize any chance of damage to productive lives except for the unfortunate immigrants who work there.
“The members gathering at Trump’s Doral resort Monday are seeking to keep the focus on what they can control — with plans to discuss a new party-line budget reconciliation bill as well as….” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-in-turmoil-over-passing-election-bill-ahead-of-midterms-report/ar-AA1XOY8l?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=43f6c84f33a9466e9531a0d6ecebbefb&ei=43
I couldn’t imagine a faster route to nuclear war than a drone strike on Mar-a-lago.
Scott Ritter being interviewed by Russia Today says that Iran’s missiles have killed Netanyahu’s brother and seriously injured Ben-Gvir.
https://nitter.poast.org/DD_Geopolitics/status/2031106537440292876#m
If true, Bibi will have to come out of hiding for the funeral….
Other than announcing the release of reserves. Are there any other things the US has done, or could do, to curb the price of oil? I saw something in the comments yesterday about the fed shorting oil with treasuries, but my guess that is just cope/misinformation.
no. the best they can do is drop PR and tweets to mold the narrative that this absolutely, positively will be a short, painless war. Christmas 1914!
Or car-pool, order less Amazon. But of course we won’t see Trump go full-Jimmy-Carter as his whole persona is American-vulgarism blown up to 11. Trump is us—reducing consumption, or turning up the A/C thermostat to 85 starts a revolution, lmao.
If Bessent really started shorting futures, it would be obvious (like BoJ interventions)—they would have to make it obvious to bluff the market.
but shorting oil would do little for wheat, or aluminium
While I appreciate your reply generally: NO NO NO, a short is NOT like a central bank intervention. Not even remotely. We have kept debunking this idea in comments (and over the years). As we said in yesterday’s Iran post comments:
I’ve always been taught that a short lowers prices by seemingly creating new supply, as a short-seller borrows a security and sells it again, and increased sales lower the price, sort of adding new supply to the market. How is that not correct?
As an example – if no stockholders ever bought or sold shares, but short-sellers kept selling, wouldn’t the price drop? thanks for pointing out what I’m missing.
Short sellers are selling at the current asking price and then hoping the price continues to go down. If they were selling at lower than the current ask, that would drive the price down, but it would also defeat the purpose of the short position.
Meant for Delaney:
Unlike shorting a stock, for futures you are contracting to sell (or buy) 1,000 barrels of oil at contract expiration. Since most traders aren’t going to deliver physical oil, a seller has to “buy” the same contract before expiration which formally closes the position.
This is why folks claim selling or buying doesn’t influence price, but this is incorrect. If there is a significant amount of new contracts (a new influx of money) to sell oil, then that new volume of selling certainly causes a drop in that contract’s price. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was done today.
As time goes by, and the nearest contract month approaches expiration, the seller has to buy an equal number of that month’s contracts to close the position, or else deliver oil. The position is closed because you have both a sell and buy contract for the same month which is expiring, and any profits or losses will depend on whether the buy price is lower or higher than your sell price. Having to close the sell position does put pressure on the buy side at expiration (or the seller can close at any time leading up expiration).
If there is a significant amount of new money flowing into the market on the sell (or buy) side over a period of time, prices can continue to fall (or rise). One of the factors behind the oil price bubble of 2006-08(?) was the creation of commodity index funds, which led to billions of dollars flowing into commodities on the buy side. With oil as the largest component of the various indexes being created, larger and larger amounts of money was leading to what one trader/author titled “Oil’s Endless Bid.”
So, the Treasury certainly can influence current prices by pouring new money onto the sell side. And, they can also do this over an extended period of time. The longer it goes on though, and the more money that goes in, the greater the eventual impact on the buy side. It’s a dangerous game to do this over an extended period of time because the market can certainly reverse and head higher with more bad news. I don’t know if Bessent wants to risk “our money” on the sell bet….
No one said “selling futures” and these were all finance-literate outlets. I agree that that is the normal way to express a negative view.
The said “shorting”. That points to options, such as Goldman selling one on a commodities index fund.
Word would have gotten out bigly if the US were intervening. I had the biggest equity options trader as a client in the early 1990s. They traded in the pits as well as electronically. The Fed was active in S&P futures (no doubt due to Greenspan being generally obsessed with stocks and becoming Fed chair right before the 1987 crash). Everyone knew when they intervened. They were nicknamed “the Turk”.
Trump is more likely to try price controls on gasoline and other essentials à la Nixon. He would look good on tv berating the oil CEOs.
In the epstein files, trump is called the dog that doesn’t bark. So, in this case, trump would be the dog that doesn’t bite (his donors.) The bone the oil bosses toss him is money, money, money. Recall the little dog’s courting of these donors in the campaign that has made him the bigger, surlier dog that he’s become. And oh, the pity, he’s still not white house broken.
>>>Are there any other things the US has done, or could do, to curb the price of oil?
Ask China to drain their strategic reserves now (something like a 9-months supply), in return for a pinky-swear promise that the US will respect China’s sovereignty
A lot to be parsed from this article. Ignatius is spooked-up iirc?
Between the spin, I’m reading: “Bibi/Trump are loons. We need out of this shitshow of a war.”
Israeli defense officials start to ask how the Iran war ends (David Ignatius in WaPo, seemingly not paywalled)
Excerpts:
A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy….
…What concerns this official and others I’ve spoken with the past few days is that the cost of the war continues to rise [BP: lol]..
…The official said the Israeli and American bombing campaign was nearing the point of achieving its military objectives. It was close to destroying what was left of Iran’s nuclear program after U.S. bombardment in June, as well as its ballistic missile inventories and weapons-making factories…[BP: more lol]…
…“I’m not sure it’s in our interest to fight until the regime is toppled,” said the Israeli official. “Nobody wants a never-ending story.”…
…“Iran won’t surrender, but it can send messages to accept a ceasefire with U.S. conditions.”… [BP: all the lols!]
…Israeli defense planners appear to have two other concerns. One is the risk that Netanyahu will order major ground operations in Lebanon to complete the destruction of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. “We don’t want to be dragged into the quagmire,” the official said, expressing concern at another point about “the slippery slope of Lebanon.”…
…A second concern expressed by the Israeli official was maintaining good relations with the United States at a time when Americans in both political parties are voicing growing concern about the alliance. “We won’t drag the U.S. into an endless war,” the official said. “Israel is a reliable ally,” not a burden, he argued.
Thanks for this. Very very helpful. I saw the short recap of the Ignatius piece in Bloomberg, as indicated above, after 7:00 AM EST, and did not have time to read the article in full then.
Thanks for all your amazing work Yves. I hope you are getting enough time off to at least get a good foot massage down there.
We’re all just trying to make sense of this crazy world :)
Thanks for you reports everyday. I very much appreciate the videos by Janta Ka. Keep up the good work!
Thanks for your kind note and your thumbs up re Janta Ka.
for those playing along at home—Ignatius is allegedly the intelligence establishment avenue to leak info/push the Overton Window for mainstream media.
Now let’s hear from anonymous Kahanist Israeli officials, lmao
Random, non-evidence-free guess—-the few sane voices in Israel are trying to pulling any lever they can to fend off the 80 years of karma headed their way
the Kahanists will not back down, this is their only chance to achieve Eretz Yisrael. After Netanyahu’s government falls they will never get back into office again without winning a civil war in Israel and fully driving out the seculars.
There are a lot of “security officials” (career officers, not appointees) who are already leaking. I’d also keep an eye on Naftali Bennett as I think he is the most likely successor to Netanyahu. He’s not fully a Kahanist, more a blood-and-soil nationalist, but also a former tech executive, notorious war coward, will probably annex the West Bank, but is against the full blown disenfranchisement of the non-Jewish population of Israel. He also has an American accent and was PM in 21-22.
Sadly the secular/dem soc Israel probably died forever with Rabin.
Also, a good friend of Russia, as I understand it? He was asked by Putin to mediate, or at least, pass confidential messages, between Moscow and Kiev in 2022, iirc.
Yes, although I’m not sure how public he’s been about it since 2023. Before Netanyahu made his deal with the devil/Ben Gvir and Smotrich to keep his governing coalition, he actually ran on allying with India and Russia instead of the US. This was nixed after he had to ask for US assistance following the start of the Gaza campaign. Bennett was Netanyahu’s chief of staff (I think, he definitely served under Netanyahu in an earlier administration). I suspect he also has some connection to the Silicon Valley/USmil alliance based on his tech background and libertarian leanings.
He is one of the few national-level figures in Israel that I can see being able to pull off a play to be seen as, if not fully neutral, then non-aligned with the US (probably through pushing a form of increased technofascist “Fortress Israel”).
Did you hear that Smotrich’s son got injured in a Hezbollah attack?
https://thecradle.co/articles/hezbollah-cross-border-rocket-attack-injures-son-of-israeli-finance-minister
He lasted only one day in Lebanon.
Ritter reporting on Haiphong a rumour that Ben Gvir has been seriously injured; quick search shows a rumour he was killed. Ritter also reports a rumour that Netanyahu’s brother has been killed.
I can’t recall hearing from Bibi either for several days, and he likes to run his mouth almost as much as Trump does.
Killing Ben gvir would be a fantastic way to bring down Netanyahu ‘s government. I think his majority is only one or two and if his coalition collapses and he can’t form a new one, elections will be called. Smotrich would be harder to assassinate as he leads the police and presumably has a core of protection.
I don’t think a warhead of 2000 lbs cares much about the protection.
But seriously, if true, again, and against my better nature, making the Zionist leadership face the consequences for once would feel so good.
In this video he recounts how he was involved directly in negotiations, FWIW, that he was optimistic. Claims starting at 2:53:23 that Putin renounced denazification and demilitarization, and then that he wouldn’t invade if Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO, which was agreed to. Western powers “blocked” negotiations, however. I think he walked that back somewhat later. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qK9tLDeWBzs
Thanks for these observations. I fear you are correct that the most ideological factions in both Israel and the US feel that this is their last, best chance to take down Iran once and for all, and that if they don’t do it soon Iran will become too strong, or support in the US will become too weak, or both. The most extreme crazies believe God is on their side. The slightly less crazy ideologues in Israel (Bennett?) or the US might be influenced to back off temporarily by some of the dangers discussed here. As you say, it does not seem that the “liberals” have any power in Israel anymore, and precious little in the US. But I do think that the masses here might finally turn against our Greater Israel efforts if the costs become too hard to conceal. Unfortunately, that is all the more reason for the crazies to push their agenda to the max while they can.
Something I do not understand is that Netanyahu seems (at least from a European perspective) to arise feelings amongst Israelis ranging from contempt through exasperation to sheer hatred.
How come he manages to hold on to power? How is it possible that his enemies have not yet managed to unseat him, or to overthrow him in some more or less disguised coup d’état?
I had a great discussion on this very topic my first visit to Israel. The consensus was that whatever else was true about the man his skill in forming political coalitions – regardless of how exactly he was doing it (many rumors he employs physical bugging devices to spy on people, since I doubt he has the technical skills for that himself, he must have a loyal team within the services who report directly to him and provide the devices and monitoring of the intelligence) – it was clear he was one of the most skilled politicians of all time. The implication was that he was incredibly skilled at behind the scenes quid pro quo in addition to the threats. There are also what can best be described as criminal family factions within Israel (Netanyahu ‘s wife’s family supposedly is one of them) that are part of the trans-national power structure that uses (the state of) Israel as cover for their actions in other countries that rely on a state representative to ensure they remain close to the levers of power.
Gideon Levy has a different opinion about Israel, as in they are all Kahanists: https://rosenbergm.substack.com/p/haaretz-on-israel-a-country-gone
As distasteful and extreme as the average Israeli opinions on the wars and towards “the Arabs”, Kahanism is a specific religious and political ideology and I am using the term in reference to followers (either litugical or ideological) of Meir Kahane and his various political organizations (the Jewish Defense League and Kach) and their descendants (Lehava, Jewish Power). I’ve linked this before here but if you’re unfamiliar with these terms this is a good overview:
Every Jew a .22 and MZ-4: The Path from Kahane to Ben-Gvir
There is no direct analogy to US politics but maybe it would come close if David Duke or Nick Fuentes had a functioning political wing with actual seats in congress and the cabinet and also the murders in the civil rights era had reached the numbers of dead that we see during mass shooting events in present times. They would also need a church/pastor with actual paying members willing to shoot up public gatherings of those who disagreed with them. They would need to be making changes to the constitution to enforce their supremacist beliefs. They would need to have been implicated in the assassination of a president on the opposite end of the political spectrum.
That being said I agree that Israeli society has gone insane.
On the substance: sadly recall that in Nov. 2023, which was two months after the latest most experts thought Biden could be replaced in a somewhat orderly manner. Igantius wrote a piece urging him to not run again.
It would be funny if Israel becomes the first example of regime change via aerial bombardment of sorts, if IDF and Israeli spooks successfully coup Netanyahu to end the war.
If the US turns tail or has its defenses in the area wiped out, it seems possible that Iran could send troops into the Zionist entity. Who would stop them once air support is gone?
IDF coup would be preferable, but if it came down to IDF vs IRGC, I know who I’d put my money on.
The comments to the Ignatius piece go hard. Dogs not eating the dog food anymore. A sampling of the “top” ones:
– Wouldn’t it be cheaper just to give Israel southern Utah Northern Arizona? They can turn it into a paradise. Just move all four or 5 million of them over here.
– More and more Americans are simply disgusted with the Israeli attitude towards both subject Palestinians and towards its neighbors. And they are slowly coming to realize that it is not just Netanyahu. On foreign policy the treatment of Palestinians under occupation a strong majority of Jewish Israelis think just like Netanyahu.
– KInda late to be concerned after decades of ethnic cleansing and war mongering.
– Explain how bombing a girls school, a desalination plant and oil refinery further US interests.
– “Israel is not a burden” to the US. That’s funny.
– It is laughable that Israel and the US continue to believe that they can decide when this war will end.
Iran fully recognizes that it is in a war for its very existence. The US demands unconditional surrender and Israel demands that Iran give up its missiles, which are its only defense against aggression from Israel and the US.
Iran will not surrender, nor will it stop fighting until it is certain that neither the US nor Israel will attempt another attack in the long future.
For that reason Iran, not Israel, and not the US, will decide when the war ends.
T Keith states that bapco is “the main fuel source feeding the US Fifth Fleet”. That sounds big if true.
Doesnt’ matter, They can’t get there now cause it’s on the wrong side of the Straits.
Good point.
Could see maybe the three LCS class ships with mine hunting capability, but don’t see an issue for anything in the NAS.
What’s going on with Türkiye?
1.Another Ballistic missile fired from Iran toward Türkiye neutralized by NATO defense systems in East Mediterranean (Andalou to get the Official Turkish slant)
…the ministry said some debris from the munition fell onto vacant land in Gaziantep, adding that there have been no casualties or injuries.
The ministry added that Türkiye places “great importance on good neighborly relations and regional stability,” stressing that “all necessary measures will be taken decisively and without hesitation against any threat directed at our country’s territory and airspace.”
“We also reiterate that it is in everyone’s interest to heed Türkiye’s warnings in this regard.”
In a separate statement shared on X, Türkiye’s Communications Director Burhanettin Duran confirmed that the missile was “timely engaged and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense assets over the Sahinbey district of Gaziantep.”
“We once again strongly reiterate our warning to all parties, particularly Iran, to refrain from actions that could endanger regional security and put civilians at risk,” he said.
2.US embassy in Adana (near NATO base) orders evacuations (Embassy website)
On March 9, 2026, the Department of State ordered non-emergency U.S. government employees and U.S. government employee family members to leave Consulate General Adana due to the safety risks. Americans in southeast Türkiye are strongly encouraged to depart now.
The U.S. Consulate Adana has suspended all consular services. Americans should contact the U.S. Embassy Ankara or the U.S. Consulate General Istanbul for consular services.
The next step will be to convince Turkey and NATO as a whole to enter the war. They will try to make this happen within the next week. I am not sure why Turkey would enter, given that Israel has made it clear that they are next. But Erdogan is supremely (over?) confident in his ability successfully to play both sides of any conflict, so it would not surprise me to see Turkey get involved.
Gaziantep is not all that far from the Incirlik Air Base , a strategic air base jointly operated by the US and Turkey. It is located 750 miles from Tabriz in northwest Iran.
If actually launched from Iran, it might have just been a friendly reminder of Iran’s reach…and US vulnerability.
Turkish people are, to my knowledge, very much against this war and I believe Erdogan would find it quite problematic to “get involved”.
Here I leave a link to a tweet with a video in which the TV news presenter shifts for a few seconds to Spanish to say “thank you for being in the correct side of history and represent humanity’s conscience” almost certainly because Sánchez positioned himself against the attack. Lot of memes in internet in Turkey in the same vein.
That’s pretty neat! Was that on Turkish TV, ie not something that would have been watched by Spanish speakers normally?
If in the US a majority did not want the war imagine how is it in the rest of the world despite Western propaganda efforts. Support for this bloody thing It is basically a thing of conservative Western elites who still believe they can get us all to the good old days of “rules based order” + the libertarian lunatics like Trump. Get out of these closed minority circles and the world is a very different thing.
Ritter on Haiphong claimed Turkey is supplying NATO radar targetting in place of the units destroyed in the Gulf.
Adana is a 25 minute drive from Incirlik airbase where the US has nuclear weapons. Unless it’s a psyop, the consulate closure and evacuation recommend are ominous news: the US is clearly expecting a major attack on Incirlik and the question we should ask is why…?
Given the Iranian position that all military bases in the region that originate attacks on Iran are “fair game” for retaliatory bombardment, precautions in Turkey could simply be preparations for conventional attack from Incirlik (for example in support of notional Kurdish incursion into NW Iran). The possibility of Iranian bombardment of Incirlik does raise hackles due to risks to special munitions at that site.
In a US television interview yesterday morning, Iran’s FM was asked about Trump saying it was time for a cease fire and would he accept one. He said Iran would not accept a cease fire, that the time was not yet right, and this time is different since the US and Israel illegally attacked during negotiations after they ceased last June. He said Iran would continue and when they had suffered enough, the US and Israel would need to explain the attack.
I don’t see a basis for assuming Iran will stop absent a restoration of Western credibility.
I agree. The issue is that there can be no “restoration of Western credibility” without either a significant change in the ideological structure of the West or a significant alteration of the geopolitical realities of the Middle East.
There’s nothing quite like an economic collapse, except maybe an obvious military catastrophe, to reshape ideology.
Of course it comes with wreckage Walter Benjamin’s Angle witnessed in his exit from paradise:
“His face is turned toward the past. Where we perceive a chain of events, he sees one single catastrophe which keeps piling wreckage upon wreckage and hurls it in front of his feet. The angel would like to stay, awaken the dead, and make whole what has been smashed. But a storm is blowing from Paradise; it has got caught in his wings with such violence that the angel can no longer close them. The storm irresistibly propels him into the future to which his back his turned, while the pile of debris before him grows skyward. The storm is what we call progress.”
That kind of sounds like Benjamin himself, preferring suicide to America. What text is that quote from?
Theses on the Philosophy of History
Laurie Anderson set that passage to music in The Dream Before.
More tidbits:
I just heard this on CNBC – the market people are saying that Trump/Bibi can stop this, but Iran gets a vote and seems unlikely to accept that. That was their Washington correspondent. Jim Cramer said that attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure was a huge mistake. He also said there’s no way we can force Hormuz open, Iran has too many tools to inflict damage.
Trump/Bibi MAY be able to stop this, but they would have to convey that they are GENUINELY trying to stop this, and not acting like a little kid who yells, “wait, wait, wait” while he reloads his nerf gun to shoot you some more!
What pound of flesh are they going to give the Iranians to show sincerity? How are they going to claim it’s NOT a defeat???
I saw a news flash that France is sending numerous warships to open up the Strait of Hormuz. Macron would be taking quite a risk.
Not for now. Preparing not sending. As part of a wider coalition. (In fact, having meetings about preparing to send because Europe loves a meeting).
He says “after the most intense phase of the conflict has ended”
Speech (in French / YouTube)
AI Transcript (also French)
Google translate of relevant section:
We are in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the Red Sea, from Sweden to Babel-Mandeb, particularly within the framework of Operation Aspides, which is an existing coalition, headquartered in Greece, and currently coordinated by Greece. France will contribute to this effort over the long term with two frigates dedicated to it. And we are currently setting up, as we just mentioned, a purely defensive, purely support mission, which must be prepared with European and non-European states and whose purpose is to allow, as soon as possible, after the most intense phase of the conflict has ended, the escort of container ships and tankers to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for international trade, but also for the flow of gas and oil that must be able to leave this region again. We are preparing this mission with our partners. It will be carried out in an orderly fashion, and we began discussing it today. Its aim is strictly peaceful, defensive, and supportive.
I add that Stanislav Krapitnik stated in his interview with Glenn Diesen that his sources in Russia believe Russia would ensure that if Iran does not already have missiles that can reach Europe beyond Italy, Iran would have the ability to enact payback on Europe. I find this highly plausible given all the technical help Russia is giving Iran (such as flying recent MIGs, operating air defense, upgrading electronics and optics on drones, starlink sniffers!). I suspect equal from China. Also note that there is a train line from Iran to China (and Russia).
Why I am a bit doubtful of China?
https://johnhelmer.net/india-applies-for-receives-us-reward-for-supporting-war-against-iran-china-announces-welcome-for-trump-on-march-31/
Satellite ISR is clearly from China, the radar that is keeping F35s at bay are from China. China stood up to Trump on trade, he backed down, and China gave nothing.
I read the Helmer piece, and it seems a tempest in a teacup – and is really hard to parse – if Russia is going to maintain relationships between India and China, some strategic independence with China is expected (and not new) – but the Modi govt will not last (all things change).
That said, I think China welcomes Trump’s visit for an opportunity for him kowtow in front of the world – just like Trump did to the African president.
John Helmer has a few sources in Russia (likely Kremlin ancillary), but for China (and India) only cites social media and news articles. You would be better off following original sources.
When non-US, non-Israel capital is threatened, does that capital attack? I could see that as the war drags on and the costs bear down on other major centers of capital that those countries begin to step off the sidelines and start to demonize Iran more. At some point, the French and Brits could step in to defend “our way of life” at some point.
Just trying to show he (they) is (are) Doing Something. And this Something is Very Important and Peaceful. BS.
“Purely support”. Like the refueling aircraft France is allowing the US to fly in and out if its airbase at Istres. “They’re just flying gas stations”, France’s defense minister says. When in fact they supply the refuelings that make it possible to bomb Iran from a safe distance.
Europe’s mixed response to Iran war draws Trump’s fury toward U.S. allies
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/europe/europes-mixed-response-iran-war-draws-trumps-fury-us-allies-rcna261880
Poodles.
When Saddam burned Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991…
I rode in the cockpit for my first descent into that stuff, horrified, but the colors were freakin amazing. We landed downwind in that crap and got to marinade in it for hours at a time. I suppose that made us aircrew lucky as we experienced just a bit of toxic tourism, whereas the poor service-people deployed there were stuck in the muck for duration… not hard to imagine that most of them are dead by now.
Photos don’t do that hellscape justice– not by any means: breathing that air instantly set your eyes, nostrils and throat aflame, did it ever taste awful. Moments later your sinuses would begin to throb, pulsate, and, personally, I felt off, like I was kinda drunk. The colors weren’t so spectacular from the ground, especially as your eyes glazed-over, covered by a film that leeched out with stinging tears.
For 5-years after that I had nary a mosquito-bite, which was pretty cool, especially because I’m allergic to those damn things. The problem was that I had recurring pneumonia over the same period, like 2-3x per year.
Thinking of people with respiratory-issues, asthma and such, this refinery-fire is definitely gonna have a body-count attached to it.
Werner Herzog made a visually stunning quasi-documentary about the oil fires, Lessons of Darkness, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lessons_of_Darkness.
If you haven’t seen it is available on the internet archive, YouTube, etc.
I wonder if Teheran, a city with a metropolitan population of nearly 17 million, and the capital of a large country, has been rendered uninhabitable. I don’t think Bahrain is going to be that great either.
I cannot believe that China has been dragging its feet so long on Power of Siberia 2, other than if it had total faith in LNG shipments. The recent attack on a Russian LNG tanker should disabuse them of that notion.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3345920/more-gas-russia-china-flags-new-pipeline-links-amid-iran-energy-crisis?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage#comments
“Along with language on two other pipelines, the draft said China would “advance preparatory work for the central route of the China-Russia natural gas pipeline” in the next five years, which some market observers interpreted as referencing the Power of Siberia 2, which would also pass through Mongolia.”
The article notes key details still need to be worked out.
Sharp drop in Chinese military aircraft near Taiwan raises questions
https://globalnation.inquirer.net/313167/sharp-drop-in-chinese-military-aircraft-near-taiwan-raises-questions
China does nothing and wins. why risk an accident and itchy nuke trigger fingers….
Thanks for the report. It sounds like it is too late for Trump and Netanyahu to give an Emily Litella (SNL) “never mind.”
And of course our feckless Dems bear their share of the blame by letting Trump feed his authoritarian fantasies over the past few months with barely a peep. Indeed there was no peeping under Biden who indulged the Israeli “Greater Israel” fantasy. The Israelis may think they are smarter than everyone but it’s turning out that they and Trump have a lot in common on the reality denial front.
How will it all end?
I’d love to have a list of Democrats who stood and cheered Trump’s Iran threats during SOTU.
While I read this article, I swear I heard cash registers ringing in the distance.
I was waiting for Al issues to start showing up. This, like many other things, reveals the folly of politicians and capital markets — at that the inflationary impacts will not be short-lived.
Sometimes the laws of physics and engineering override hope and slogans. You don’t stop, then restart, an aluminum smelter with the flip of a switch. It takes serious time to drain the pots then systematically restart them.
A thought experiment, for those who go for such things. Question: How defang Israel? An answer: Perhaps a deal can be reached—between Democrats and Republicans.
What would it entail? Agreement between the parties (more realistically, among factions within them) to refuse money from the Israel lobby. Israel can act as it does because of U.S. backing; U.S. backing is (partly) a function of lobby money. So, cut the Gordian knot. That must be at the level of party funding. Only then would it become politically possible to tell Israel no more money, no more weapons, no more trade, no more energy, no more political cover, no more hasbara, no more nothing if it doesn’t stand down—and submit its nuclear arsenal to inspections and reductions, for good measure. (Hey, it’s a thought experiment.) Eisenhower had his Suez; the political class could make this their Hormuz.
Will it happen? Um, the probability is low. Could it work? I wonder. It’s like a game theory scenario in which neither side will risk turning on a third-party ally of both for fear the other will benefit. However if both sides see the ally as a threat, it’s imaginable that they can agree to neutralize it by cooperative action. In other words it’s a coordination problem. That also means it’s fraught with issues of trust, verification, defection, and cheating. So it’s not, if you’ll permit a redolent phrase from another manufactured crisis, a slam dunk.
But a strategy of focused cooperation isn’t inconceivable either. As markets tank and inflation goes vertical, incentives may align to make it look kinda attractive. Risky, to be sure, but with upside not just for the national interest, notional as that may be, but more saliently for popularity with voters and power within parties. What’s unknown is how ready players already are, and whether the game would proceed stepwise or by leap.
Before riding off on this pony, let’s acknowledge the likelier bet (for specie), if not ultimately the safer one (for the species), is on an old warhorse named Nash Equilibrium. It has the pole position. But some may be quietly saying that for this race he’s looking more than a little long in the tooth. Not much of a gift, that, and one that goes on taking to boot.
I get constant solicitations for money from Democratic candidates due to making the mistake of donating to them in the 2004-2006 campaigns. They are not talking about Israel or foreign wars in their letters. They’re all over the place otherwise with “tax billionaires” and “Medicare for all” and “save Social Security” and “gun violence” and LGBTQIA+ and every other thing, such that the population believing in all those things would be a small sliver of the total voting population. And most of those are promises we’ve heard before and seen violated once they get in. I remember donating to Tammy Duckworth because she was an Iraq war vet,, severely injured, running on what sounded like an anti-war platform. Since then she has become a pro-war RussiaRussiaRussia Democrat like all the others. They are not going to abandon Israel, it’s a core part of their donor base. That party has to be burned to the ground and rebuilt from the bottom up. Or just replaced by a new party that focuses on a very few issues and delivers on them once elected.
While bashing Bill Clinton is always fun even if not always accurate, here is one case where we can legitimately accuse him of leading us to where we are now. Jim Bakker during the Bush administration in 1992 was the last US official from any administration to resist Israeli cries of antisemitism and credibly refuse to fund their activities because of their actions. Bill Clinton immediately crossed that Rubicon and accused Bakker and Bush of being antisemitic for threatening to withhold loans from Israel so that they could kick the Palestinians around.
It’s been 34 years since we had anyone in office with the spine to attempt that. The result of such an action immediately created the opportunity for politicians to sell out to Israel.
I think the only way we get free of this is if we publicly lose. The US needs to be economically and militarily defeated or else we will absolutely try this again. The people in our government have no ability to recall a time when capitulation to Israel on this topic wasn’t required. We need to see images and realize damages in excess of anything we saw during Vietnam in order for this lesson to take hold. Given that so many powerful Democrats are also beholden to Israel, and did want the US to attack Iran, that probably isn’t going to happen.
So we’ll have to see what the business interests do and how they plan to castrate their cat’s paws in the House and Senate unless we stop this war.
While I partially agree with you here – we have had no one willing to really stand up to Israel since then – there were some foreign policy “moderates” (relatively speaking) willing to slow the neocon machinery down during the Obama administration and even at the end of the Bush II regime (to keep them from expanding their disastrous Iraq War even further). I commented on this above. This is not to absolve either administration of major responsibility. But it is to suggest, in keeping with Yves’ discussion here, that there may be factions of the national security establishment who are “realistic” enough to see the dangers ahead and will work to cut our losses before everything is lost.
Here’s hoping such people still exist, and that there are still any political mechanisms remaining for them to do so.
Agree with Chris. It will take a total ignominious defeat on the battlefield. The US political class will never do it. They are all bought and paid for.
Bomb Israel back to the Biblical age, fully collapse their infrastructure. Only then might they stop their incessant violence against everybody else.
Thank you so much.
Attributed to Harry S. Truman, which in his particular case is entirely apropos.
As with my own humble self.
Recall William Proxmire.
Yes, good news if there’s living left to do. So many things to learn.
chris [March 9, 2026 at 11:27 am]
posted speculation on then future events
his post well after February 28
fie
Apologies if I have offended. I don’t understand your response above?
A Beautiful Mind – Bar Scene John Nash’s Equilibrium Game Theory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJS7Igvk6ZM
Israel as the blonde (beutified by the lobby money)
I can’t give you a like or an up-thumb, so I’ll just say …yes.
Incidentally, that epiphany scene is arguably unfair to Adam Smith, who anticipates a variant of coordination, famously observing:
Or, in the bar scene’s context, to get laid.
While I’m quibbling, it’s my understanding that when Smith speculates that competition driven by self-interest serves the common good, it’s within a context that regulates the collusive behavior of conspiring merchants. Funny how neoliberal theory seems to leave that out.
My sense from watching 2-Way and the Huddle, morning You Tube supposedly balanced and both-sides shows chatter this morning is that the DC view is that the war is going to end in a week, Trump and Bibi will declare victory, say the uranium and launchers are gone, and the Strait will open and the world economy will adjust such that by late spring things will be swimming along and the Republicans can say, see, we fixed things and all is good….if I didn’t know any better I’d say all the talking heads are deeply immersed in war-end hopium…..
On the other hands you have a new Iranian leader whose father, wife and daughter (I think) were just killed by the Americans and Israelis, this new leader now running a nation that was attacked in the middle of negotiations for the umpteenth time, so not sure what choices he sees except keep going…..
And then we have the nagging worry about nukes, could Iran have one or two even now, either built of their own or imported from North Korea among others…..
Interesting times….
I continue to suspect that the Iranians might take a leaf out of the Russian Federation diplomatic “play book” and demand a reconfiguration of the regional security architecture around principles of national sovereignty and indivisibility of security. Up until now, the sovereignty and security needs of Israel have taken precedence over all others in the region. If an Israeli government adopts the posture that it will use its unconventional weapons before it will surrender the principle that it is entitled to be the regional hegemon, things may get very ugly.
Again we have the strange and unfounded delusion that the US and Israel control the duration of the war, and can more or less pick up the phone anytime they want and bring it to a halt. Recall that for a long time, European and Ukrainian elites believed the same thing about the Ukraine war.
The reality is, only one party to a war can stop it, usually the party that’s winning. And the party that’s winning typically has their own criteria regarding what they want out of the conflict, criteria that have nothing to do with the losers desire to stop being bombed or whatever.
My guess is that Iran’s desires are twofold:
1. Crush Israel and eliminate it’s ability to continually attack and kill neighboring populations.
2. Drive the US out of the Middle East and restore the ability of local states to determine their own destiny.
IMO Iran is seizing on the weakness of the US and Israel as a once-in-a-century opportunity to re-architect the Middle East. Whether or not the US and the Zionist entity want to end the war at a time convenient for them is not going to determine anything.
Yes, if the “12 day” war is any indicator, it’s likely to be Israel that seeks a ceasefire. If Larry Johnson and others are correct, the interceptors should be running out at the end of this week or early next week. Efforts to ship more from other locations like S. Korea may extend that time a bit. Some interesting possible scenarios posited by raspberry jam above may also come into play.
The US president openly stated that he basically takes directions from a foreign leader, about military/security policy, and yet no one in the mass media cartel or the misinformed US public seem to even blink an eye. This is disgusting, yet not surprising. At least we can say that the emperor in this case at least , is being honest, and for whatever reason, he is openly beholden to Bibi. (via Adelson, Ellison, Singer et al.)
There still is some debate and speculation among observers if DT is doing this because of the Epstein kompromat or to keep Bibi out of prison. Maybe both?
But of course, there are many other possible motivations, long-term US objectives (maintain USD hegemony etc.) No matter, I agree that it is Iran who appears to control the timeline.
Carolinian and others,
How will it all end? With the US/West out of West Asia and Israel unable to mount a serious genocide again. Anything less is Minsk2. As to how? MacGregor states (and Stainsilav Krapitnik, and many others) that US bases look like Gaza. So, economic incentives for the region to prevent the US from rebuilding (swear allegiance with damage to Iran, allow Iranian regional bases) / regime change with same outcome. Note, West Asia as this includes Azerbaijan and Armenia (Turkey will choose the non-losing camel of the two it is riding). US standoff munitions are about out, and China can rapidly replace radars if needed – the US cannot without Chinese rare earths – to keep the US at 1000 km or further.
Please recall the pain level Iran suffered in the Iran-Iraq war, and that did not include martyring the pope during Lent while he was at home working. How much pain can the US’s overly indebted and impoverished population take (60% cannot find $400 bucks – a tank of gas in a few months? Friday, dilling my truck cost 1$25 at the local, SoCal Chevron.
Note that there is a non-zero percentage (currently low) that the US ends up out of Europe, too, if having a US base makes European countries targets as well. Certainly, Europeans know who is making them poor.
the consensus of “smart money” is still that the war will be brief, and any ripple transitory. compare, contrast oil for December versus oil for now.
a good reminder re. everyone is in their own info silo during this global info war
Iran says 1,255 people killed in US-Israeli attacks, mostly civilians
Deputy Health Minister Ali Jafarian tells Al Jazeera air attacks damage dozens of healthcare facilities.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/iran-says-1255-killed-in-us-israeli-attacks-mostly-civilians?traffic_source=rss
BBC: G7 nations to hold emergency meeting on oil as stock markets fall
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79542n0grwo
Article updated and headline now reading:
G7 to take ‘necessary measures’ to support energy supplies
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79542n0grwo
French finance minister Roland Lescure said, “we are not there yet,” on the question of whether emergency stocks will be released.
The messaging worked for now so they don’t need to act.
On the one hand, during one of the early 2010s Eurozone rolling bank crises, Draghi declared he was launching Outright Monetary Transactions, making it sound like a new program, when all he did was relabel existing authorities. That gimmick worked, the markets calmed down.
On the other hand, IIRC in July 2008, Paulson created some sort of new rescue promise regarding Fannie and Freddie and then said something like, “If you have a bazooka in your pocket, you don’t have to use it.”
He never deployed his bazooka. He has to force Fannie and Freddie into conceivership less than 2 months later.
crisp and concise, contextual recall. valuable insight. thank you, Yves.
France has three months (supposedly) of emergency reserves.
The great environmentalists in the IRGC have set the conditions for the next set of political leaders in the U.S., should there be one, to push for a green transition.
Fatwa watch: Ayatollah Sistani yesterday issued a fatwa to support Iran. To me it’s not clear how much the specific wording matters, but in this report he stresses attending solidarity demonstrations and the preservation of unity against attempts to divide Muslims, which doesn’t sound like calling for attacks on the invaders.
The timing makes one wonder if he’s following the markets.
In his comments on the fatwa, Martyanov believes that it takes three senior ayatollahs to initiate jihad. I can’t find a confirmation of that provision.
From comments by way, way more knowledgeable people I understood that the fatwa was addressed specifically to Iranians – their religious duty is now to hold together, show unity and resist the Great Satan.
A bit of anecdata: Gas prices jumped 50 cents between Friday and Sunday, here in the Oregon Desert.
Can’t let a good crisis go to waste. Reg. gasoline up a full dollar since the start of the war, here on the north coast of Cal. State average today $5.20 gal.
https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA
I filled up 2 weeks ago at $4.00 a gallon in central California. Now it’s $5.00 a gallon.
But at least the good news is that the % difference between CA gas prices and rest of the jusa will shrink, because the added state taxes that make CA so expensive is not % based, it is fixed.
I was paying $4.00 a gallon while my friend in NJ was paying $2.50… so i paid 60% more than him. But in 2 weeks I’ll probably be paying $6 a gallon, while my friend will be paying $4.50. So CA will only be paying 33% more than the rest of the country.
FWIW, I filled my car today here in San Francisco at a local “not a brand name” station. The signs showing the price/gallon for different grades had been removed, and “regular” (the lowest grade) ended up being just a bit under $6/gallon.
I can’t wait to see what happens when $4/gallon meets MAGA. Will Christian Zionists cheer as they fill their gas guzzlers?
60% of Americans cannot find $400 for an emergency without pawning something – credit cards maxed. Many are MAGA. They will be MAHA – Make America Homeless Again. They also are well armed.
After living in deep red MAGA for four years (out now) probably nothing will happen.
If the D’s were in control they would be furious and blame it all on them (while burning just as much as ever). When the R’s are in control they can’t wait to line up to burn & buy even more petrol because “the oil companies need more profit, we must save and support them!”
Rolling coal is just so much fun, and it owns the libs, bonus!
Al Mayadeen update:
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/trump-seeking-contact-to-end-war–tehran-not-responding–exc
Not corroborated.
1 man killed, 2 seriously wounded as Iranian cluster bomb warhead hits central Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/1-dead-2-seriously-wounded-as-iranian-cluster-bomb-warhead-hits-central-israel/
Watch the video at the top
Tehran threatens to confiscate property of Iranians abroad who back attacks on Iran
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/tehran-threatens-confiscate-property-iranians-abroad-who-back-attacks-iran-2026-03-09/
The Gulf States have been complaining about Iranian attacks on them.
Iran says that they are only attacking US bases, not the Gulf States.
=
The purpose of these complaints seems to be to further the narrative that Iran is a terrorist nation and an aggressor.
It seems that not only is it impossible for the Gulf States to demand USA remove the bases but these States must also sing the US-Israeli tune.
How long will Iran allow them to continue to sing that tune? Will Iran demand they stop, saying: if you continue to make such allegations, then we will consider you to be belligerents and act accordingly!
‘We’re going to make a tonne of money’: US Senator Graham on US war on Iran
The veteran GOP senator appears to suggest that the war on Iran was launched to gain control over its oil supplies.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/we-are-going-make-a-tonne-of-money-us-senator-graham-on-us-war-on-iran
Could also be “we” are himself and his friends who are making money selling military hardware, victory meme coins etc
The persecution and outcome of this conflict will depend on mathematics, morale, and war doctrine. The US and Israel have adopted ‘military necessity’ (as practiced by the Nazi SS in WW II, i.e anything goes. Probably, by now some in the US iIntelligence community have looked at terrain maps of Iran and have come to the conclusion that an invasion would not be a cake walk. To add to the confusion , the oil trade is not a one way street for the Gulf States. Some 80% of their food is imported. In addition desalinization provides some 60% of the fresh water. ‘Benevolent dictators’ who are beholden to an outside power have a problem when the veneer of their prestige is blown, when they fail to provide protection and prosperity to their subjects, their shelf life is limited. Compare the princely states in the British Raj to what is happening to the American Raj on the Persian Gulf. And if iran interprets that Israel/US are intent on a Persian genocide ala Gaza, there will be no off ramp.
Hegseth: “But the only side that targets civilians is Iran.” Not true, and omits the one ME country on US side that has a clear, consistent, and long record of doing so.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5739395/iran-school-airstrike-tomahawk-missile-trump
And:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/world/middleeast/iran-minab-school-strike.html
Standard hasbara-like projection. Whatever they say someone else did, they are doing. Literal human shields were used by the zionazis in Gaza but it was they that accused Hamas of doing it.
Sinwar through a stick at the drone that killed him whereas bibi hides in his bunker or flies to Germany while his war-avoiding son and wife are in Miami.
Judge Napolitano and Alastair Crooke. utube, ~31+ minutes.
Alastair Crooke : If Trump Loses Iran, China and BRICS Triumph
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIiU8vd1BeI
It’s a good talk but even Russia has quietly walked back from placing much weight on BRICS. Lavrov has been promoting for over a year the idea of more pan-Asian orgs. India is na ga let BRICS get far because China wants to dominate it. China has made that clear in not subtle enough ways. And I disagree with Crooke, who is a top Middle East expert on his reading of the India-Russia oil dealings. India DID cut back a bit on Russia buys in response to US pressure. China was stockpiling because they had a much better grip on where the Middle East was going. So Russia disciplined India. Crooke is reading something more into that than was there out of BRICS boosterism.
A few things I keep in mind are that Trump is not a rational actor, that censorship has destroyed the feedback loops that informed the decision makers and that more than half the US Population is right on the edge financially, NOW.
US Society is much more fragile than most realize, Trump’s rejection of the Rule of Law and his obvious disdain for the will of the populace are issues that will come to a head soon.
Going to nukes becomes more likely as the War continues, as does the likelihood of the mid terms being cancelled and Martial Law being imposed in the USA.
At any given time every human being is doing the best they can with what they have, this is the best Humanity can do.
I agree. Fwiw, my hope re Martial Law is that rank and file military refuse. That’s why the illegal orders video was so important; rank & file refusal to play ball is our best defense against martial law/military coup.
Minnesota is the example as to how the population reacts to martial law. It’s not going to go as they think it will, and the feds lack the ability to surge paramilitaries everywhere especially when they are actively engaged in an illegal, full-scale war.
The honking in the clip is the most relevant element: https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/2030775275378586048
Condoleezza Rice frames Iran War as culmination of almost half-century conflict between USA and Iran. She backs Hegseth mission to “neuter” Iran militarily. If demilitarisation of Iran accomplished, then US would have no need for its approx 20 bases in ME. It could jettison Carter Doctrine.
Even if Iran not demilitarised, US could still position ME exit as a win and outsource regional security to allies eg Syria, Turkey, Israel (if still extant). Trump could say it’s just a matter of going back to Nixon policy of no combat bases in ME – except for maybe naval base at Bahrain.
By allowing Iranian strikes to liquidate US bases in ME, Trump avoids the political mess of a negotiated withdrawal (see Afghanistan). More importantly, according to Cato Institute guy Eugene Gholtz, he saves upwards of £70 billion per year on ME logistics costs. A non-trivial amount. See 2020 paper, still germane: https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2023-02/justin-logan-defense-priorities-9-30-20.pdf
Hegseth needs to find an additional $50 billion per year for Western Hemisphere by making Pentagon budget cuts. See https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/02/19/trump-pentagon-budget-cuts/
Iran War is cost of moving 5% of total Pentagon budget from ME to WH. McNamara fallacy all over again?
Great plan, lose a trillion dollars of inventory to save 120 billion. Sounds like Trump University business math (he drove all his businesses bankrupt).
Naval base at Bahrain again? Bahrain only has a week of food and the base has been Gaza’d
Asset write-off. See Trump’s Atlantic City playbook. He’s essentially filing for Pentagon bankruptcy in ME.
US to leave Gulf after they win? Dream on! Did the US leave Japan or Europe after WWII? Of course not…threats will be fabricated to justify cushy jobs for all those generals and profits for the merchants of death.
Israeli fire kills Maronite priest in south Lebanon
https://www.ucanews.com/news/israeli-fire-kills-maronite-priest-in-south-lebanon/112200#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17730743344565&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ucanews.com%2Fnews%2Fisraeli-fire-kills-maronite-priest-in-south-lebanon%2F112200
Events like this makes you wonder if Israelis really understand how they “defeated” Hizb’ullah.
They should be aware that they never actually beat Hizb’ullah militarily and that their forces sre still there. What they achieved by “decapitation” was that they severely eroded the ability to play in domestic Lebanese politics which enabled other Lebanese factions to restrain them. But if Israel continues to offend all Lebanese, other factions (the Levantine equivalent of GCC?) might realize that playing nice with Israel and politically forcing restraint on Hizb’ullah is useless. Heck, unlike in the Gulf, it’s the Israelis that’s bombing the Christians, the Sunnis, and the Druze.
I suppose Rifat Jawaid must be UK resident with so much complaint about BBC and the TV license fee. I agree. Abolish the BBC.
admission against interest and civilian cohesion re safety in Israel file:
Jerusalem asks to reopen schools for young children on Wednesday, other cities wait | Times of Israel
quote, bold mine:
Also, Hezbollah just managed to hit an IDF base (used by home front command, the entity that releases the missile alerts) in central Israel. No sirens again. How many radars have been lost within Israel?
Iran’s new Supreme Leader ‘wounded’ in Israeli airstrike
The exact nature of his injuries or how they were sustained remains unclear
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/irans-supreme-leader-wounded-israeli-airstrike-5HjdW6C_2/
Big, if true.
It had already been reported. His injuries can’t be too serious since they then made him Supreme Leader.
The article and the site smell just a bi’ rotten.
LBC is very mainstream UK media.
I believe they are confused, and the injury happened in the initial strikes last week. It was reported widely at the time, and he seems to be OK now.
Lol, impressions may vary. It has always struck me as a sensationalist cesspool, right down to its red, white and blue Union Flag / Stars and Stripes aesthetic.
I mean, at one point it was owned by Dame Shirley Porter – the retail heiress who fled to Israel to avoid justice after allegedly misusing the funds of Westminster council when she ran it for the Tories. It has also been owned by Reuters (MI6’s media company, historically).
I think you are confusing middlebrow with mainstream. It’s full of Pooterish ideologues. :-)
Jet Cracks Soar to Record Highs as Iran War Breaks Fuel Markets
Refined fuel markets are under greater strain than crude, with jet fuel premiums over Brent surging to record levels as the Strait of Hormuz disruption chokes Middle East supply.
Jet fuel prices in Singapore jumped 140% to about $230 per barrel, while European jet fuel traded at nearly double the price of crude, reflecting severe supply shortages.
Refineries in Asia are cutting runs and airlines face rising costs, as roughly 20% of global jet fuel exports normally pass through Hormuz
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Jet-Cracks-Soar-to-Record-Highs-as-Iran-War-Breaks-Fuel-Markets.html
This seems to be something important. Perhaps our allies will be able to rein us in if we won’t do it ourselves?
Unfortunately, it appears doubtful that Albanese would do anything other than gleefully toe the line, given his performance to date.
Trump says it’s ‘too soon’ to talk about seizing Iran’s oil — but doesn’t rule it out
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-seizing-iran-oil-rcna262437
He’s waiting for that unconditional surrender.
I’ve been out and all stations in town are now over $3. Traffic was light–perhaps the public are in shock.
$3.499/gallon in Montgomery County MD this afternoon.
Updates:
Oil has fallen back to below $100 a barrel. Operation Epic Messaging succeeds!
I suddenly remembered my Charlemagne. “Let my armies be the rocks, and the trees, and the birds in the sky.”
Gee, there’s a shock…zionazis targeting defenseless animals.
Just like they did in Gaza to sheep, horses, donkeys and dogs.
Pop in ES futures, perhaps on Iran:
Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz ‘must be very careful,’ Iran Foreign Ministry warns (CNBC)
Friday’s lows have been passed, we’re in the green now for the week. Perhaps interpreted as a deescalation in the strait?
depending on the time—it could be based on the short-covering + dip buying from Trump’s Hormuz comments. Market expecting the US Navy to sail right up to Hormuz like it’s 1944 Normandy.
Pretty wild to think that the US Navy’s post-war reputation is going to be put on the line by algorithmic headline trading (Stock market no crash = Trump must be Alexander the Great)
There is rumour that he is going to TACO during his address this evening, that is why everything is going green.
this is what they’re discussing one silo over:
https://x.com/CGasparino/status/2030772356931575855
“…. This oil price spike has the same feel to it. It’s not considering that within days we will 100% control the supply of oil coming out of the Straits of Hurmuz, or that Iran will be 100 [sic, 100%] decapitated as a military force and a financier of terror. There will be a peace dividend to all of that. Meanwhile buckle up as the Karens who control oil prices have their say, at least for now”
If true, the Israelis hinting at ending the war on only day 9? Even sooner than last time, but what would Iran say? They could simply ignore them and continue attacking Israel and US assets. (As an aside, it would be nice to see “King” Hussein kicked out of Jordan as well as the Gulf dictatorships)
And even migratory birds are not safe with Israelis around.
I think it was Chris Hedges who said years ago that the US/Isr was run by a suicide-death cult. That kind of sums it up
WTF?!? Oil price reporting Brent Crude at $90 at 4 pm. EDT.
Philip Pilkington @philippilk
Reports coming in that USAF refuelling tankers are GTFOing the Middle East. It looks like they were targeted with Iranian missiles last night. No refuelling means no more bombing raids…
Saw this one other place, big if true. That makes the bombing missions much more difficult, and will cut the sortie rate even further.
saw that in severa places…unable to confirm, of course, since im sitting at wilderness bar on a dead end dirt road.
also saw reports of 3 b-52’s refueling in UK, today…and numerous former military guys, including contracters, and including at least 1 dude running for congress literally freaking out abt the ‘doomsday’ plane being in theater…the one who’s sole purpose is to send ELF launch orders to subs in the AO.
also saw…unconfirmed…that israel was dropping leaflets on the city of Qom saying entire population needs to flee right now.
Qom is close to fordow site, i think.
all that points to a nuke tonight…but fog of war is thicker than usual.
been advising my younger son, in lubbock at texas tech, 400 or so miles north of home…to fill up, and then fill up again when tank gets to 3/4.
what a/d can counter a b-52 at high altitude?
(ive seen them over my place over the decades, and they’re way up there…and you hear them for an hour but can only see them if its cloudless and theyre right overhead…then they vanish)
In the Vietnam War SAM missiles and anti-aircraft artillery could reach them. (My father flew 150+ missions as a B-52 pilot in South East Asia. Vietnam War and The Secret War.).
The B-52Ds that were in theatre for iron bomb dropping had gloss black paint on the undersides to minimize search lights from identifying them.
During Linebacker II most of the B-52s lost were out-of-theatre B-52Gs that did not have the electronic warfare packages the B-52Ds had been upgraded too. Bad operational planning also contributed to losses.
I forgot to add that while the B-52s were good as a flying bomb vending machine in Afghanistan to support Forward Controllers (One of my cousins did this) on the ground, in the 1960s/70s stand off weapons were developed to avoid airplanes flying over targets and air defense. Consider it an eight engine flying semi-truck.
Hound Dog, SRAM, ACLM, etc.
I grew up on Air Bases that were expected to be wiped out in 30 minutes of warning.
Scott Ritter on Judge Napolitano just said that Gavir & Netanyahoo’s homes were hit by Iran. And that Televiv is without power. His interview today was very measured and informative. He said Iran has free range now, that they will start sending 2ton warheads, and there’s nothing to intercept them.
I’ve seen both these claims on Telegram/Nitter, and both have been challenged as lacking evidence and sources.
Ritter has been getting very emotional lately and that’s a bad thing: if he does, he seems to spout hearsay and nonsense more often than not. Israelis won’t admit to such things, but we’ll see at least some corroboration over next few days.
Markets are now up and oil is under $90 because Donald Trump said the war is almost over. Our markets are as intelligent as our leaders.
They’re doing fine! If I assume oil supply is not an issue, then of course I can assume markets will have the information they need to effectively price oil at that level.
The dismal science is only dour if you don’t believe…
Shades of 2007-2008 housing crisis.
When it becomes clear Iran will not stop just because Trump wants to, the markets will not be happy.
Brent Falls Below $90 as Trump Signals War May End
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Soar-29-as-Iran-Conflict-Threatens-Middle-East-Supply.html
Are traders really this gullible, or has Trump ordered a “market operation” to allow Epstein Elite cronies to buy cheap before the next rise?
You got it!
Trump says “the war is very complete,” and he’s considering taking over Strait of Hormuz
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-cbs-news-the-war-is-very-complete-strait-hormuz/
And just like that… oil drops to under 90:
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2031098109900509237
If it’s “smart money”, why do they believe anything DJT says?
Sure oil drop. Now gas at the pump, that’s a different story. I bet our gas stays above $5 for the foreseeable future; at least until around fall.
recency bias, buying the dip as always worked at the 30,000-foot level since 1982—more specifically since 2009 ZIRP/save the system at any cost.
Very complete… pending more war. Lolz.
Fascinating to see how everyone on our side keeps assuming we have the agency here. If you were Iran, why would you stop bombing Israel and the US interests in the region just because the US decided to stop their attacks?
Maybe there’s some kind of agreement being forged. Maybe we’ll hear about it soon. Until such time this strikes me as people coping with a disaster by means of hallucinating a better reality.
My guess is that Iran will cease offensive missile attacks on Israel as they did at the end of the 12 day war. Attacks on bases in the Gulf states will also cease…as long as the US, Israel, and the Gulf states abide by the “cease fire” and the US doesn’t rebuild the destroyed bases.
However, I doubt that the Strait of Hormuz will open unless Trump agrees to not start it all over again after the midterms. If I were Iran, I’d hold out for the lifting of sanctions and unfreezing $100 billion of frozen asset to be used for reconstruction.
If I were Iran, I wouldn’t stop until Israel was begging for mercy, and then I’d still keep hitting them. I’d also have a press conference with my good friends in Pakistan so that the US and Israel understood any funny business means Israel is destroyed in the same nuclear fire as Iran. And then, when the country was leveled flat, I would consent to stop the bombing campaign but I wouldn’t open the Straits until the US was forcibly ejected from the region and Israel was even more of a desert. it wouldn’t take that long.
If I put myself in the Iranian position, I see that Israel has never kept a ceasefire and will kill their own to kill more Muslims. The US and the West clearly can’t be trusted because of the examples of Libya and Minsk I & II. Not to mention Syria and the Kurds. The US showed the Iranians they don’t care about diplomacy, not just because they attacked in the middle of these negotiations but also because they bombed an Iranian embassy in Syria. So the Iranians will need to set up such an overwhelming position that cannot be ignored, or else the West will wait until it has enough material to reset and restart.
It is tragic that my country’s grandest ambitions revoke around murdering brown skinned people in oil rich countries. I love my country but I can’t see a good reason for Iran to stop attacking us until something very drastically changes. Which might happen! Who knows?
There are odd parallels to wars of late imperial China–late 18th to early 19th century, especially the war against Myanmar. The war began over the very warlike Konbaung Dynasty of Myanmar subjugating border tribes that claimed to be under Chinese protection. In the ensuing conflict, the Myanmarese defeated four Chinese expeditions, yet ended the war with a submissive tone. The top Myanmarese general pointed out that Myanmar is a small nation and they can’t keep it up forever, and, perhaps more importantly, the Chinese cared only for symbolism–as long as Myanmar “submitted,” it was Chinese win. The border tribes ultimately came under Myanmar’s rule. One might suppose that even the Opium War might have been sold by the Chinese as their “victory” as long as the war didn’t come all the way to Beijing and the British accepted a compromise–which actually was in the cards. But everyone was too eager to cheat–the British decided that, if the Chinese wouldn’t stay down, they’d go all the way and win–something that the Myanmarese could never pull off, obviously.
So, the implication for today might be that Iran, like Myanmar back then, might accept an outcome that gives them real advantages for symbolic concessions. The catch, though, is that if US, or far worse, Israel tries to twist the outcome to cheat Iran out of those real gains? To Qianlong Emperor, the border tribes between Yunnan and Myanmar were irrelevant. Today, however, Israel IS one of the border tribes and they exert oversized influence in the Imperial Capital. While the Chinese did not care to spend much for the sake of those border tribes, US leaders (I’m not going to say Trump, since it’s s bipartisan thing) seem eager to destroy US for sake of the stupid border tribe…
They are getting a bit better at feigning confidence but their earlier outbursts gave it all away. I’m sticking with Iran is holding the line. I shall steel thy nerves against Hasbara.
Perhaps King Neptune surrendered? That’s been my latest ‘History Rhymes’ for this fiasco.
I hear the rhetoric but wonder what it means.
It might be a signal that he wants to end the conflict, or bluster for domestic consumption (“we have achieved our aims”/”mission accomplished”) or even blame-shifting for when the conflict drags on (“we want peace, but our adversaries want war”). Perhaps elements of all three.
Ian Welsh’s latest post asserts that the Iranian goal is, essentially, regime change in Jerusalem.
March came in like a lion; I wonder if it will go out like a lamb.
Graham presses Saudi Arabia to join US fight against Iran
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5775290-saudia-arabia-urged-iran-strikes/
Mossad attacks on the Saudis not doing the trick?
I’m seeing Trump to speak and take questions at 5:30. There’s an announcement on truth social.
Live here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9bkyOTCrEg
Now Trump wants to “achieve ultimate victory”.
High as a kite.
typical Trumpian Electron Cloud model linguistics. everyone can derive what they want.
such gimmicks only work for so long, lol
That speech would give k harris a run for the money.
I expect to wake up to a massive strike because muscle only knows muscle.
The fleeing tankers signal getting targets out of theater.
Russian reporting that Trump called Putin and talked about the Iran war:
Putin and Trump hold phone call – Kremlin aide
https://www.rt.com/news/634304-putin-trump-phone-call/
Love to hear that conversation.
Thanks. Israel mentioned once. It appeared to be an “oops” moment, not supposed to mention them. Not much else. Loads of obviously made up numbers. Overall, a poor effort at narrative, IMO.
anybody watch this, or is there a transcript?
i cannot watch this guy…ive met too many homeless, mentally ill people.
its too much.
amfortas – I also cannot watch Trump (or many public figures).
If it’s on YouTube, I use free transcription websites to generate a transcript. Takes just a few seconds.
https://youtubetotranscript.com/ is good.
So for Trump’s speech:
1. Find YT of speech (in this case on Daniel Davis’ channel) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLtitRvVqQk
2. Copy link into transcription website.
3. Output is a transcript that can be linked or copied https://youtubetotranscript.com/transcript?v=hLtitRvVqQk
telegram is saying that someone dropped an airstrike on tehran’s electricity grid essentially as the same time Trump was on-air
Just saw on Ohayo Nippon news broadcast (NHK) a video of Rubio going down the checklist of Terrorist actions perpetrated by the Terrorist Iran Regime, followed immediately by the video of the Tomahawk cruise missile strike on the girls school.
Someone at NHK likes irony.
Trump on Tomahawk used in attack on girls school: Tomahawks are generic, lots of countries have them, Iran has some probably wish they had more.
According to the images these days Iranians have recovered enough intercepted parts to reverse engineer their own just to piss off Raytheon.
Given the age and the failure rate of the thing, I gather they already have better indigenous designs.
Yeah, heard that. Iran does have some stuff left over from the Shah like F-4s and F-14s. I’m not sure how they keep them flying – black market arms dealers?
But Tomahawks? Those initially flew long after the Shah was gone from Iran, and had a nuke warhead option. No way in heck Iran could have gotten near a Tomahawk back then. Reverse engineer one from duds? Not likely at all, more likely just examine them and steal the technology.
,,, how they keep them flying-”
My 56 gmc (270…1-5-6-3-2-4)could be rebuilt in a muddy field with 7?16 to 3/4″ box wrenches and a torque wrench, a spanner for the steering etc but it could be fixed. Full stop. That ain’t the way it is no more.
’70’s phantoms could be decent, but I doubt that’s what they’re flying.
Cuba…
https://www.garage-italia.com/en/hub/articles/cars-in-cuba-a-fleet-frozen-in-time
The US is the only country that has Tomahawks in this war so he is lying his face off as usual.
And it’s self-contracting. Iranian missiles are really inaccurate, per DJT (in other remarks, I suspect made before he was confronted with the frame by frame analysis), which explains hitting a target in their own country. And the inaccurate missile is a Tomahawk?
I think Lambert’s interpretation is plausible — he’s saying whatever is useful in the moment; truth content is beside the point.
I give DJT and Hegseth at least a little credit for recognizing that the attack on the school is something to be ashamed of, which I assume is the motivation for their denials.
Confabulation. Again.
Maybe it was the Dutch. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_missile
re: nuclear war
The Realist Review
Breaking the Nuclear Taboo
Nuclear experts Peter Kuznick and Ivana Nikolić Hughes believe the current conflict risks deliberate use of nuclear weapons.
https://therealistreview.substack.com/p/breaking-the-nuclear-taboo
Iran says any Arab and European country that expels US and Israeli envoys will be able to freely use strait of Hormuz. (Guardian live blog)
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that any Arab or European country that expels Israeli and US ambassadors from its territory will be granted unrestricted passage through the strait of Hormuz starting on Tuesday.
According to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC said those countries would have the “full right and freedom” to transit the strategic waterway if they sever diplomatic ties with both Israel and the United States.
Hundreds of ships remain anchored on both sides of the strategic waterway as oil and shipping markets watch for any sign that sailings might pick up through the narrow corridor. Roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows through the strait.
I guess it means this war ends when the Gulf rejects USA and Israel. An easier task now that there are options…
I haven’t seen that confirmed by any official Iranian source.
Same
I did find it on the Guardian link to their live blog. Also found this:
“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement carried by state media that they would “determine the end of the war”, in comments after the US president earlier said the conflict would end “soon”.
The Guards’ statement was quoted as saying: “The equations and future status of the region are now in the hands of our armed forces; American forces will not end the war.”
In an apparent response to the statement, Trump has just posted on his Truth Social platform:
If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have…. “
Trump calls Iran war ‘a little excursion’ that will end ‘soon’
The president made the remarks at his resort in Miami more than a week after U.S. and Israel initiated strikes on Iran. He did not give a timeline on ending hostilities.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/president-calls-iran-war-little-excursion-will-end-soon-rcna262494
“a little excursion”
A three-hour tour perhaps?
So who’s Gilligan? Miller or Hegseth?
The billionaire and his wife are clearly the late Sheldon Adelson (played by Lindsey) and his lovely wife, Miryam.
Ginger is Sweet Karoline. The Professor is that clever boy, J.D. Vance, and plucky Mary Ann is I’m-not-an-enabler Susie Wiles.
Bibi appears in a guest spot.
Or maybe it’s Cap’n Queeg and his balls of steel.
Al Mayadeen ticker (frustratingly, just the ticker, no links): Senior Iranian Military Official to AM – US and Israel seeking unconventional means after their failure
—-
The best source I had for statements from Iranian military/gov was Middle East Spectator on Telegram, but he seems to have been arrested and shut down by the Jordanian government :(
In other media news, Bahrain has announced the death penalty for anyone filming/photographing damage from drone/missile attacks.
Iran signals Hormuz safe passage to countries expelling U.S. and Israeli diplomats
https://investinglive.com/commodities/iran-signals-hormuz-safe-passage-to-countries-expelling-us-and-israeli-diplomats-20260309/
One hour ago.
The “unconventional means,” I wonder, is just Trump declaring victory and pretending to leave.
Note that this sort of worked before–vis a vis the Yemenis, with the emphasis on “sort of.” The idea is to leave things as they are and pretend that nothing has happened and assume that nobody wants to really change the status quo. This is not as wrong as it sounds: it rests on the assumption that, while US cannot beat the other side, the other side can’t really “beat” US and impose their terms on us. But, is “the other side” just the Iranians? No, it’s also the Israelis: they want to change the status quo in their favor by force and perfidy whenever it’s convenient for them. The only thing that US has gotten from them is Netanyahu’s promise to behave–which is about as valuable as used piece of toilet tissue with sXXX on it. (I was thinking about this when I was commenting on whether this is an exercise in the “West” negotiating among themselves or Israel being the real enemy of US, when Trump remarked on how he and Netanyahu would “mutually” solve this.)
In other words, this is a very unstable “outcome”: maybe Iran doesn’t want to upset the apple cart any more than they currently have. (Highly doubtful) But it also requires that Israel behaves (Even more doubtful) and that US won’t shield Israel if and when it does (yeah, right). But this might “appear” to work for a few days or even weeks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlYfHTFUw40
Daniel Davis went live during Trump speech and then gave his analysis and a general war update. Excellent as always. (Skip through the first section w/Trump’s presser)
Gas prices: Trump says ‘only fools’ should worry about Iran war increases
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/09/trump-downplays-oil-prices-iran-war/89064142007/
Iran’s Araghchi calls U.S. strikes a ‘failure’ and vows to fight ‘as long as it takes’
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/irans-araghchi-calls-u-s-strikes-a-failure-and-vows-to-fight-as-long-as-it-takes
“Seyed Mohammad Marandi:
🇮🇷🇮🇷 The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps:
Any Arab or European country that expels the Israeli and American ambassadors from its territory will be granted full authorization and freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.”
Don´t know if the post is genuine.
AG, do you have a link for that?
I don’t see it in Marandi’s twitter feed.
No!
that´s why I added the “disclaimer”
It showed up in the fb feed which I am not experienced with.
When I went back to fb after searching for it myself (like you not finding it in the hurry) it was gone, the feed had new items.
Sorry!
These fb items that are being suggested I have only recently acknowledged and I begin to think they are false or deliberately misleading in a way.
For instance I am repeatedly given snippets from legacy media but then it turns out they are from last year or even earlier. That doesn´t make them incorrect but the context is a very different one and I cannot post them here.
But in this case I thought I share…
the IRGC give daily briefings to Iranian TV. might be from one of those. of course, no one on Twitter provides a cite cuz most accounts are engagement farmers first
It seems we are moving into a phase where it is Iranian (not US) decisions that have real weight and consequence. Trump’s ramblings seem irrelevant, and in general I don’t feel the need to do Kremlinology on the US so much right now.
I am really wishing for better sources for Iranian stuff.
Getting it second hand from Western MSM is obviously not satisfactory.
Al Mayadeen etc are slow and don’t say much. Press TV doesn’t cover everything. A lot of the other Iranian sites are blocked for me (could be a Vietnam issue).
Middle East Spectator (Telegram) was pretty good, but now offline.
The osint dudes are frustrating in different ways: A lot of unsourced (and unverifiable) claims; focus on videos of things going boom rather than quotes/sourced statements from Iran; and a lot of them seem to overegg the pudding in either infowar or engagement farming reasons.
Would welcome good tips for Iran sources from the commentariat 🙏🏼
Farsi is fine (thanks Google Translate).
Times Of India has unverified reports that the air refueling tankers stationed at Prince Sultan air base have left for Europe. Big if true.
Trump posting obscene war crime threats on Truth Social
@realDonaldTrump
If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen! This is a gift from the United States of America to China, and all of those Nations that heavily use the Hormuz Strait. Hopefully, it is a gesture that will be greatly appreciated. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
It doesn’t get better than this…UK reported to be sending Prince of Wales aircraft carrier to Middle East– “HMS Prince of Wales: The “Cursed” Royal Navy Aircraft Carrier That Keeps Breaking Down”
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/hms-prince-of-wales-the-cursed-royal-navy-aircraft-carrier-that-keeps-breaking-down/
Today– “HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier ‘might not sail to Middle East’…The Telegraph previously reported that HMS Prince of Wales – which has been in service since 2017 – may need to be escorted by a French ship if it deployed to the Middle East. Most of the Royal Navy’s major warships are unavailable or undergoing maintenance” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/09/hms-prince-of-wales-aircraft-carrier-middle-east/
Trump’s behavior is likely to become more erratic and further divorced from reality as time passes, as well as inadvertently amusing.
It’s already a heck of a show and it’s going to get wilder.
When Trump realizes he has lost in the Mideast he’s going to look for someone or some thing to smash in order to sooth his wounded ego.
Will he nuke Minneapolis?
If he thought he could get away with it I suspect he would.
Cuba is on the menu. Isolated, little “sh1t-hole” country, brown people, Commies, right-wing diaspora to stroke his ego.
Yeah, Cuba.
The president just threatened millions of people with genocide and the total destruction of a country.
If there’s a time for calling for his impeachment, its now. I am not expecting much from the Democrats.
(bold mine)
Planet Labs PBC is extending its delay on commercial satellite imagery in the Middle East to two weeks from four days over concerns that the intelligence could be used to target North Atlantic Treaty Organization members.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/176718#
Musings:
: Turchin’s third factor, after elite overproduction and popular immiseration, is government legitimacy.
:: Aurelien writing Euro aristos are more worried about legitimacy than power.
: Dick Nixon ‘under oath’ about the Joint Chiefs.
: The whole ped* thing is getting out of hand.
:: The stink can get smeared all on King Troll. JD will toe the line.
:: Bibi knows too much. So too Ghislaine.
:: Per white matter issues: see Harold Washington.
: Mechanism could be voter fraud, which re-establishes legitimacy.
: Iran reaching an olive branch across the Strait, if you renounce the Great Satan.
:: ‘Nice hotels around the Kaaba you’ve got there. Shame if, you know. Apostate.’
:: the Kahanists will not back down, this is their only chance to achieve Eretz Yisrael.
:: Ditto dominionists, looking for a different outcome.
: Can we assume that a state’s military contains as many honor-bound officers as it does whackjobs? Exceptional Generals are the big club, but want to keep what they got.
:: Nuke control goes through a command chain, not a net. A few links can sever most ignitions.
: Who has the largest military in Europe?
:: Who wants to be the big Sultan?
::: Who has boots on the ground to stop him rolling into Jerusalem?
Janet came up with the question:
Given: Trump was the CounterElite in 2016, ain’t now.
? Where’s the counter-elite?
Pakistan, Vietnam announce extreme austerity measures amid war on Iran (Al Mayadeen)
Pakistan:
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a series of strict austerity measures on Monday in response to surging oil prices caused by the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. Schools will close for two weeks, while higher education institutions will switch immediately to online learning.
Under the new measures, half of public and private sector employees will be required to work from home, with an additional day off per week to conserve fuel.
Vietnam:
Vietnam’s Trade Ministry has called on local businesses to encourage their employees to work from home as part of efforts to save on fuel amid supply disruptions and price surges triggered by the Iran war, Reuters reported…
…Long lines of cars and motorbikes were seen queuing at petrol stations in the capital, Hanoi, on Tuesday.
BP anecdata: I filled up my motorbike here (Da Nang) about an hour ago and everything was as normal.
Putin said he would direct LNG to friendly countries. That has to include Vietnam. But that does not address any oil shortage. And it may take a bit for the LNG to arrive.
I don’t agree with everything in this article (no do I believe others here in the forum will either), but it is at least a little more sober about the situation:
Why This War With Iran May Be Far Longer Than Markets Expect
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-This-War-With-Iran-May-Be-Far-Longer-Than-Markets-Expect.html
John Helmer in this new interview with Nima published 2 hours ago says that Russia may make a deal with the US that betrays Iran and especially China. I hate to hear him say that, so I hope he’s wrong or I have misunderstood!
https://www.youtube.com/live/QRJnmH68Jw8
Here is the Marine Traffic link
Notice the tankers are lining up to enter the gulf, Iran may just allow this, as it is the exit when they are full that they need to stop? Dont know.