[This Iran war post again launched before complete. Please return or refresh this page at 8:00 AM EDT for the final version]
laThe Trump Administration has offered up yet more Iran war happy talk, here of the “all we need to do is get past the next few weeks and we will move forward into broad, sunlit uplands” sort.1 It”s not hard to see that this is poppycock. However, perhaps because it is a weekend and the underlying attritional dynamic of the two sides exchanging blows is hard to sex up in news headlines, so the intensity of the news flow has moderated a hair. For instance, consider the Bloomberg banner headline:
The Dubai airport reopened not all that long later. This is not the first time a drone attack forced a suspension of flights in Dubai. The fact that a normally second-tier development was elevated to a top story points to a small lessening of combat damage news. For sake of completeness, this is the lead item as of 6:00 AM EDT:
Similarly, Trump is presently stuck on his current rung of the escalation threat ladder. Recall we reported yesterday that he demanded that China, South Korea, Japan and other states assist the US in breaking the Strait of Hormuz closure. We’ll discuss this variant on Trump’s theme soon, but this is currently the lead item on the BBC Iran war live blog:
This threat came in a Financial Times interview, in which Trump also said he might delay his planned end-of-month summit with Xi. This is an admission of weakness.
We won’t dwell on this entry in the BBC’s live blog summary section a bit earlier, since this should come as no surprise to anyone that has been paying attention….but that probably excludes most of the BBC’s audience:
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has not asked for a ceasefire and doesn’t “see any reason why we should talk with [the] Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us”
But as we’ll soon discuss, the below-the-waterline damage to the US and Israeli operations is severe and accelerating. I do not want to sell hopium, but it is possible that the breakage becomes so severe, and so soon, that the ability of the belligerents to pound Iran at acceptable risk is badly degraded. However, the most likely path then is the one we now see in the Ukraine conflict, with the “clearly gonna lose” Ukraine, backed by its allies, still launching strikes and engaging in terrorism, like the attack on Putin’s Valdai residence. But the US options even for that narrow, as we will show soon, it is being run out of the Middle East militarily.
And we have the very live, as in hand-grenade-with-the pin-pulled-out, issue of the accelerating damage to the global economy. Too many in the business reporting, political, and pundit world are fixated on the price of oil. Brent rose to over $106 and has settled a bit to $105ish. However, in addition to much-discussed effects of the reduction in Gulf oil, LNG and urea supplies, to which we have added sulphuric acid as critical to manufacturing, we will turn to helium, as well as a provocative article that claims that the US is actually exceedingly exposed to the effects of the Gulf oil shock and that light crudes like WTI will soon crash due to persistent feed stock imbalances at refineries and resulting shutdowns.
First to the Team Trump upbeat patter. From Bloomberg in Pentagon Sees Iran War Lasting Up to Six Weeks, Trump Aide Says:
A top aide to President Donald Trump said the Pentagon estimates the Iran war, now in its third week, would take between four and six weeks.
Kevin Hassett, head of the White House’s National Economic Council, offered the timeline along with a caveat that the ultimate decision on when the war will conclude lies with Trump. He was among several administration officials on Sunday asking Americans for patience as energy prices spike, saying the goal of eliminating Iran as a threat in the Middle East is worth it.
As of Saturday, the Pentagon “believed that it would take four to six weeks to complete this mission and that we’re ahead of schedule,” Hassett said on CBS’ Face the Nation. “We expect that the global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over.”
Energy Secretary Chris Wright signaled the war may last several more weeks with oil and gasoline prices elevated as the US and Israel seek to destroy Iranian military capabilities.
“I think that this conflict will certainly come to the end in the next few weeks — could be sooner than that — and we’ll see a rebound in supplies and a pushing down of prices after that,” Wright said on ABC’s This Week.
Of course, this cheery talk contrasts with Trump’s frustration at not having any countries willing to bail him out of the Strait of Hormuz mess he created, save at most some handwaves. The Trump interview in the Financial Times highlighted these remarks:
“We have a thing called Nato,” said Trump, who has often criticised the alliance. “We’ve been very sweet. We didn’t have to help them with Ukraine. Ukraine is thousands of miles away from us . . . But we helped them. Now we’ll see if they help us. Because I’ve long said that we’ll be there for them but they won’t be there for us. And I’m not sure that they’d be there.”
I will leave it for readers to dissect how many misrepresentations Trump managed to pack into that patter, from the idea that the conflict from Ukraine just fell out of the sky, when Germany and France pushed back against the 2008 invitation for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO eventually, and Trump, like an abusive spouse, now making nice after punching the EU repeatedly in the face, such as at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, the recent National Security Strategy document, and with Greenland.
Even his EU poodles can’t or won’t do much. From Politico’s EU morning newsletter:
ALL EYES ON THE GULF: …Top of the agenda for foreign ministers is how to get ships flowing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One last night that his administration has asked seven countries for assistance securing the waterway … Trump told the FT yesterday it would be “very bad for the future of NATO” if allies don’t respond to his call to reopen the strait.
Wrong place, hands tied: A senior EU diplomat said earlier this month that the EU has boosted its Operation Aspides maritime safety mission by two vessels [which had only three to begin with], provided by Paris. But these ships aren’t located in the crucial area where ships most need protection — and they face restrictive rules of engagement….
Nein von mir: But German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul shot down that suggestion ahead of the meeting, saying Sunday that his country doesn’t want to play “an active part” in the conflict and that Aspides is “not effective.”
The Politico missive also reports on sharp criticism, by of all people former EU diplomat Josep Borrell, of the bloc’s silence over US and Israel international law violations, specifically, having launched an illegal war.2
As for the “actions speak louder than words” contrary signal of Trump saying he might put of the summit with Xi, Trump is keeping the session in his usual preferred state of high uncertainty. From a separate Financial Times account:
He [Trump] poke after his Treasury secretary Scott Bessent met his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng in Paris to iron out key details for the summit. Bessent is expected to hold more talks with He on Monday….
It was unclear if Trump floated a delay because US presidents tend to avoid overseas trips during times of conflict or if he was hoping that suggesting a postponement would pressure Beijing to send warships.
“If Washington thinks postponing would give the US leverage to press Beijing for a more active role in mediation, then I think Washington will be disappointed,” [Sarah] Beran [partner at Macro Advisory Partners] added.
Now to the kinetic conflict. Iran is continuing to take damage. But forgive us for not dwelling unduly on that since it is not of strategic import, unless the US does something colossally stupid like hitting Iran’s oil infrastructure or non-trivial desalination plants. Iran would quickly start making Gulf states economic and practical dead zones by hitting the same type of installations. Many many experts, such as John Mearsheimer, have pointed out that nations can take an extraordinary amount of punishment in a war and still prevail, as the examples of Russia in World War II and Vietnam attest.
Nevertheless, from the BBC’s live feed mid-day yesterday:
Key Iranian telecoms network collapses
Connectivity on a key Iranian telecommunications network has collapsed, according to independent monitoring service NetBlocks.
The network, AS12880, had so far remained partially online, it adds.
The government in Iran continues to impose a near-total internet blackout and there has been virtually no connectivity for 16 days.
Now to the how the belligerents (or as Iran is wont to call them, child-murderers) are faring. Nima of Dialogue Work had a must-watch talk with Stanislav Krapivnik. Krapivnik described at considerable length how disastrous any of the current plans for escalation, like trying to break the Strait of Hormuz or tying to land forces on Kharg Island or some other spot, would be. He also covered logistics, poorly performing US expensive kit like the F-35, and even the operational difficulties of trying to restart the draft. But the part I found most striking was his confirmation and amplification of an issue we have raised, that the US is being run out bases all over the Middle East, and that is happening faster than most realize.
Mildly edited from a machine-generated transcript:
The Saudis are at least smart enough to go “No we’re not getting involved in this fight,” because they get involved in the fight they may not have a country when it’s all over…. So, they were smart enough to go, nah, we’re going to stay neutral. And what I’ve heard is they told the Americans, you’re on your own. Don’t don’t look for help. Don’t look us for us to evacuate your bases.
You’re on your own. The other thing I learned, and as somebody that spent, you know, I was an armor officer and I spent lots of time in the infantry, so this was shocking to me when I learned this. Um those bases, American bases there, they don’t have bunkers.
They don’t have bunkers.
There’s no place to hide. They were so one on the first thing they were so convinced that this would be three, four days. Just like before, it’s a showcase death by thousand cuts. Even though the Iranians said, you know, we’re going to just whack everything if no matter how big the hit you bring on us, we’re just going off on everything. But they didn’t believe it. And two, they were so sure of the anti-air systems.
Well, even with the anti-air, and they did do a lot of damage in destroying what was coming in with anti-air system, though not nearly enough, obvious, but this is going on and going on going on. And even if you have the best anti-air system in the world, you will run out of ordinance sooner or later.
We’re on day 17, honey. Well, okay, almost day 17 where I’m located. So we we’ve got half an hour and it’ll be day 17. So much for four days. They ran out of ordinance a long time ago. And Iran is now just working them over. There were five Strata tankers burning that got hit yesterday. Now this is they’re just working over and from what I’ve heard they’re looking at possibly evacuating all personnel off a lot of these bases.
They have no they have no defenses. Uh and so far the Iranians have not gone after uh the troops in any kind of meaningful way. They’re destroying the equipment and everything else.
Tomorrow they decide to finally go after the American troops.
Mass casualties.
They got no place to hide. They have no bunkers
For more proof of (admittedly long-standing) poor US preparedness, also see Defense One, in Aircrew who died in KC-135 crash likely lacked parachutes. And of arrogance, recall that the CIA put a data center in Dubai, on the assumption that no one would dare target it.
So if Krapivnik and his contacts have worked this out, so too presumably have more than a few at the Pentagon. Iran is already at or close to the point where it can inflict mass casualties at what is left of the US bases it has been pounding. Presumably the remaining forces will be evacuated, and one senses that that is coming within weeks.
And remember, we predicted early on that the bases would be looted if vacated.
Now this puts the Gulf States in more than a wee bind. Recall that despite the advice of Russian foreign minister Lavrov to the Gulf State foreign ministers, they presented what he depicted as an unbalanced UN draft resolution, because it criticized Iran and not also the US and Israel for starting the bloody war in the first place. So they doubled down on fealty to the US.
So too are EU members. Janta Ka’s latest talk includes a section on a readout of French President Macron’s call to Iran’s president Pezeshkian, in which Macron hectors Iran and nowhere says anything bad about the US or Israel for attacking Iran while it was negotiating:
The segment also discusses the latest in the “What is up with Netanyahu” saga, as in the debate over the authenticity of the latest video of him posted, one of him picking up a cup of coffee and answering questions. Janta Ka asked three different AI programs if the video was fake or not. All three came up with indicators that said “yes”.
Note that the BBC live feed hoisted this snipped from the Abbas Araghchi interview with CBS:
He says that Iran is “open to countries who want to talk” about the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz – where Iranian attacks on boats have seen traffic through the shipping lane grind to a halt.
Not naming specific countries, Araghchi says Iran has “been approached by a number of countries” who want safe passage through the Strait.
Those countries have to include at least some Gulf oil producers. Would Iran peel them off from the US by letting their ships transit the Strait in return for committing to a neutral status, which would clearly mean “No more US forces”? If one were to break and go this route, it seems hard to imagine that others would not follow.
More on the deteriorating US position. This tweet explains the devastating impact of the successful Iran targeting of THAAD radars. Please click through to read it in full:
🇮🇷🇺🇸 New satellite imagery of Al Sadr and Al Ruwais in the UAE shows exactly why Washington has been frantically stripping THAAD components from South Korea and airlifting them to a theatre where Iran has spent fifteen days systematically hunting and destroying them. The pictures… pic.twitter.com/69kSDwzbCa
— THE ISLANDER (@IslanderWORLD) March 15, 2026
The key part:
The United States operates eight THAAD batteries in the entire world. During the June 2025 twelve day war, American forces burned through 25% of every THAAD interceptor ever procured, gone in twelve days. Now two full weeks into this war, THAAD radar infrastructure has been confirmed struck in Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The AN/TPY-2 — the eyes of the entire system, a $500 million piece of hardware spread across five 40-foot trailers was confirmed destroyed at Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan. A $20,000 Iranian Shahed drone did it.
Without the AN/TPY-2 you don’t have THAAD. You have an expensive launcher pointed at the sky with nothing to tell it where to look let alone where to shoot…
The interceptor stockpile is the other half of this. Critically low in Israel — confirmed by Semafor. A THAAD interceptor costs $12 million. A Patriot PAC-3 costs $4 million. Iran’s Shahed costs $25,000. Iran has fired over 2500 ballistic missiles, over 4000 drones and launched 51 waves in fifteen days. The Congressional Research Service quietly noted this war would take years to replenish…
What the satellite images reveal and what Washington’s information blackout is desperately trying to conceal is not merely tactical damage. It is the systematic dismantling of America’s layered missile defence architecture across an entire region, and now it’s global infrastructure (pulling from SK). Iran goal wasn’t to overwhelm the shield. Iran went for the architecture itself. The radar nodes, the communications arrays, the early-warning installations. Blind the giant first and then bleed it.
Larry Johnson confirms the severity of the toll in his latest post, US Air Defense THAAD and Patriot PAC3 Missiles are Kaput or Soon Will Be. Please read the entire piece. Key bits (he has ample detail substantiating his key points):
Let me offer you a crude, simplistic model that highlights the disparity in force that favors Iran. Let’s assume that Israel and Iran hit each other with 50 2,000 pound bombs/missiles every day. At that rate, Iran’s bombs would theoretically cover all of Israel’s land area in under 3 years, while Israel’s bombs would take over two centuries to do the same to Iran. This highlights the asymmetry: Israel’s smaller size makes it far more vulnerable to sustained aerial bombardment….
If the US gave Israel all of its THAADs that means Israel will run out of THAAD missiles after Iran launches 450 ballistic missiles. Iran is firing an average of 40 missiles per day at Israel since the start of the war on 28 February. That means Iran has fired 640 ballistic missiles into Israel. I believe that based on these numbers, there are no more THAAD missiles available. The supply is either depleted or nearing depletion. It is simple math.
Israel and the US have the same problem with the Patriot missiles….according to open sources, several Patriot batteries were sent to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Using the assumption that each battery was supplied with 72 PAC3s, and that only one battery was deployed to each of those four countries, we are left with a total of 1,584 Patriot missiles for Israel.
This is the best case scenario, which means that Israel can engage a maximum of 792 Iranian ballistic and cruise missiles. If Israel’s supply is not already depleted, it soon will be.
Hindustan Times provides a confirmation of sorts:
Now to the economic war. Kevin W sent a link to a story on yet another critical item, helium, which is also set to suffer higher prices and shortages. This TechSpot article explains why it is critical to semiconductor manufacture. From Drone strikes halt a third of the world’s helium supply, threatening chip production:
The big picture: The global helium market remains on edge as QatarEnergy’s massive Ras Laffan facility – responsible for nearly a third of the world’s supply – remains offline more than a week after Iranian drone strikes halted operations. The prolonged outage has highlighted vulnerabilities in the semiconductor supply chain, drawing renewed attention to the essential yet fragile nature of the helium trade.
At the center of the issue is the precision gas vital to chip manufacturing and cryogenics. Helium cools silicon wafers during fabrication, maintaining the extremely low temperatures required for etching and lithography. Unlike other industrial gases, there is no effective substitute, and experts warn that even short disruptions can ripple across global technology production.
Ras Laffan went dark on March 2 following drone attacks linked to Iran’s escalating regional conflict. Two days later, QatarEnergy declared force majeure, relieving itself of delivery obligations. The impact was immediate: a sudden 30% cut to global helium supply, hitting buyers that rely heavily on Qatari exports.
Few are more exposed than South Korea, which sourced nearly 65% of its helium from Qatar last year, according to the Korea International Trade Association. The country’s semiconductor industry depends on a steady helium supply to maintain production yields. With no viable replacement, chipmakers are scrambling to assess stockpiles and diversify supply.
And to a provocative and extremely counter-intuitive thesis on where the oil and gas war may be going. Conventional wisdom is the US is well insulated due to our considerable domestic production. This article argues the reverse, that the world (ex Russia friends, who get its medium heavy crude) will soon be awash in light grades like our WTI and the extreme imbalance versus refinery needs will lead to a WTI price crash. Please read this critically important post by Steven Newbury, The Naphtha Heart Attack: Why $120 WTI is a Ghost Signal Preceding a Negative-Price Inversion, in full. I hope oil and energy industry mavens will weigh in. Key sections of its argument:
The kinetic destruction of Iranian infrastructure, combined with the wider geopolitical crisis, has permanently severed two critical lifelines: Middle Eastern medium and heavy crudes, and Qatari LNG.
The global industrial and logistical machine—the ‘maintenance engine’ of civilisational complexity—runs on middle distillates (diesel, jet fuel, heating oil). You cannot simply replace the heavy, sour barrels of the Middle East with light, sweet WTI from the Permian basin and expect the same refinery yield. Furthermore, the total loss of Qatari LNG removes the high-exergy process heat required to run these refineries efficiently.
Without the heavier feedstocks required to blend this naphtha into usable finished petrol, or refine into middle distillates, and with the global shipping fleet paralysed by a lack of diesel, this naphtha has nowhere to go. It simply sits in storage. And this is the mechanical trigger for the inversion….
The strategic planning emerging from the US Treasury and Energy departments relies on the assumption that North America can isolate itself from this global seizure. This calculus rests on two perceived safety valves.
The first is the pivot towards Venezuelan Merey 16. By capturing this heavy sour crude through overseen accounts (GL 46A/48), US planners believe they can maintain Gulf Coast middle-distillate yields while the rest of the world burns. This is a profound geopolitical miscalculation. It ignores the ‘Social Entropy’ of the Venezuelan state; the Venezuelan people and militias, who have endured a decade of sanctions, are unlikely to passively allow their national exergy to be siphoned off to subsidise an American lifestyle while their own region fractures.
The second is a reliance on Canadian Synthetic Crude (SCO). However, this ‘upgraded’ product is extremely natural gas intensive, requiring hydrogen derived from the domestic market. While the US imports relatively little Middle Eastern crude, it remains critically dependent on ~300,000 barrels per day of finished diesel imports—concentrated in the Northeast where refining capacity no longer exists. When global refining seizes, those imports stop. Regions that voted to ‘drill baby drill’ will soon discover that producing light oil in Texas does nothing to heat a home in New England.
The Neoliberal model fails to grasp that a naphtha blockage in one hub will violently radiate outward, destroying the global industrial architecture. There is a final, invisible constraint tightening around the remaining refining capacity: Hydrogen.
Hydrocrackers and reformers depend on natural gas for both feedstock and process heat to produce hydrogen. As the Permian shut-in ripples through gas markets, the economics of hydrogen production collapse. Refiners face a choice between ruinous gas prices or accepting that whatever crude remains can only yield the wrong molecules….
The ‘cognitive layer’ may be blind, but the biophysical reality is already appearing on today’s (9/3/2026) logistical indices. We are seeing a profound decoupling that signals the death of the ‘maintenance engine’:
So this analysis suggests that getting adequate supply to the US from Venezuela is critical. Note this article does not indicate what that level might be. The fact that Trump was trying to get China to buy Venezuela crude suggests we saw a surplus. But that was before the war.
Again, if the analysis above is correct, it upends conventional thinking. The countries that look to be at risk due to coming up short on naptha might wind up OK…again, can experts opine: The tables belwo are from Bloomberg:
Asian Markets Rely Heavily on Gulf Oil
Persian Gulf oil product exports in 2025 that transited the Strait of Hormuz
All for today. Back tomorrow!
_____
1 Note that Churchill said “may,” not “will,” as this Administration is doing.
2 From the Politico newsletter:
BORRELL ATTACKS: The EU’s former top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has fired a broadside at the bloc’s current leadership — including his former boss Ursula von der Leyen and his successor, Kallas. The former high representative for foreign affairs told Playbook that Brussels had not done enough to stand up for international law in the wake of Trump’s military attacks on Iran — making Borrell the latest of von der Leyen’s Spanish socialist allies to turn on her.
“This war is illegal under international law,” Borrell blasted. “We are suffering the consequences in terms of energy prices, while Trump gloats that this is good for the U.S. because they are oil exporters.” The former commissioner said von der Leyen has “continued to overstep her functions” by increasing her involvement in the bloc’s foreign policy, echoing criticism of the Commission president from national capitals in recent days. “She is systematically biased in favour of the U.S. and Israel,” he said in a written statement.
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Always telling is what the media isn’t talking about….one of which, it’s blindly obvious that Iran can regime-change Trump via the elections (a la Jimmy Carter 1980).
The more IR civilians die, the higher the price for peace At a min, it’s now: sanctions end (reparations), no US bases in the Gulf (which neocons, Saudis will never give up barring generational military losses and complete political discrediting)
But no Democratic candidate would dare go behind the back of the State Department and Mad King Donald to work out a deal with Iran to keep the war going through the election, like Reagan’s people did. Or could there be someone with the actual balls required to do something like that?
The Regime that will be changed is the Neoliberal Republicrat Demoblican Duopoly.
“The United States is also a one-party state but, with typical American extravagance, they have two of them”. The current circumstances spell the end to the political luxury Julius Nyerere, First President of Tanzania called out a half century ago.
The new cost structure imposed by the self immolation of Empire will not support the bezzle of Neoliberalism.
If that thesis bears out, things could go many ways bad. There’s no obvious actor able to grab that kind of money/power off the table. But the ones that I can think of – oligarchs – are probably worse that what we have now.
Maybe I’m not using the full scope of my imagination.
I see it coming from somewhere below the first star level in the Deep State and associated private infrastructure.
For some remnant of the current system to survive, systems from healthy food to primary education have to be expropriated from “The Market” and a “Great Leap Forward” type eradication of market ideology from the State imposed.
The Oligarch model to date has seen what Yves calls the Family Dictatorships of the Gulf as its prototype. The defects of that “improvement” over Neil Stephenson’s “burbclaves” is currently under the spotlight: no one will fight and die for your profit margin, not even your mercenaries when the going gets tough.
Putin provides a “neoliberal containment model”, Xi a “financialization containment model”. The former keep us in the space of world burning capitalism, the latter in the space of totalitarian surveillance. This may be the ultimate cost of “civilization” and why David Graeber thought it was a 6000 year old error, but with current population levels, there’s no easy way down from it.
Aurelien, in this post theorizes that the PMC could assume a revolutionary role. I was surprised by it, especially since he usually is so soberly realist.
“And then, I think, we will see the PMC become more overtly militant: it has the organisation and the social structures, and most of all it has sense of entitlement. “If there was hope, it lay in the Proles,” reflected Winston Smith in 1984. These days, it may be that any vestigial hope lies in the arrogance, the sense of superiority and the sense of entitlement of the PMC.”
I don’t think the PMC will do anything more than try to limit damage to what they have in material goods and status.
It is pretty outré’ for him!
But I think, again ironically for him, it’s just because he was economizing on words!
In my guess, it isn’t the PMC as a class, it is a militant, activist (and competent) subset that sets out from a broadly popular premise, as Putin did, like “contain the oligarchs” or a Xi did “the Mandate of Heaven” comes from a materially prosperous people. Here, maybe we could recycle “freedom from fear, and freedom from want”, our shirking freedoms in the Neoliberal order.
That will require some degree of active resistance if not revolt.
Correct. Because being on the right side of history in this case means being on the wrong side of a career. Which is different from the aspirational BS you could sign on to during thr Obama years!
I used to think this as well, but after what we all just went through here in Minneapolis, I’m not so sure about that any more.
A lot of PMC and PMC-adjacent types (like Renee and Alex) were voluntarily out on the front lines selflessly putting themselves and their careers in harms way standing up for their immigrant neighbors. I have seen things that I never thought would ever be remotely possible coming from comfortable people (and especially from stereotypically mild-mannered Minnesotans).
While things have calmed down here, the wounds have not healed and it wouldn’t take much for those smouldering embers of rage still scattered across the area to flare up again. That power is still lying in the streets.
Today’s PMC are not even the old time Manadarins, they are first and foremost eunuchs…
Trump continually points out how elections are fraudulent unless he wins and almost pointless. The regime change may not be electoral – probably impeachment and criminal prosecution. Can Mr. Market wait a year for the Straits to reopen?
In one week, Iran blinded the giant; in the next week, Iran depleted its defenses, and it now is destroying all regional US bases (and can do so into Europe). In three weeks. In week 4 will they start hitting the troops in their tents(!!)? Or start sinking naval ships with their submarine fleet? One carrier is hit and retreated, the sh*t-carrier has sabotage fires – sailor morale will lead to mutiny if the ships start going down en masse.
Alistaire on the Judge today narrates it – just imagine the US is Goliath: First blind the giant, then destroy the shield (interceptors), then cut the hamstrings (logistical lines – ports, refuelers, airports), then stay out of they as the Giant gets weaker and weaker from wounds it cannot see or stem – bleeding (straits closed)….
Instead of Goliath I thought of the cyclops, Polyphemus, that Odysseus blinded while he slept.
Goliath has greater resonance with the religious fanatics in the holy land. But you are right about Polyphemus!
-“The more IR civilians die, the higher the price for peace At a min, it’s now: sanctions end (reparations), no US bases in the Gulf (which neocons, Saudis will never give up barring generational military losses and complete political discrediting)”
Not even close to the minimum IMO especially after seeing a senior Iranian quoted as saying the straits would not be opened while Israel exists
This is maximalism I judge but they know whose fault all this is and they want revenge on top of security and they are highly invested in the Palestinian cause.
I’d say they’ll want full US withdrawal, the end of sanctions, reparations plus Israeli withdrawal to the ‘67 borders, a Palestinian state and the end of Israeli nukes.
Sure, this would be a geopolitical earthquake but Iran holds all the cards. There’ll never be a better chance and they would be heroes to the Islamic world.
Frankly, I think they’d be heroes to most of the rest of the world too.
Jeffrey Sacks has a peace plan at Common Dreams which includes a Palestinian state. It could work.
Regarding the Netanyahu coffee video (and sorry I missed the earlier fracas due to traveling) I do not think it is AI. Acacia also noted that there is a timestamp on a device in the video that shows it was shot on March 15 2026 (the day it aired). Janta Ka (or anyone else) asking AI if the video is AI is just going to give answer based on reinforcement learning from everyone talking about it being AI in the last 36 hours assuming he took the qestion to one of the public chatbot implementations of a frontier model.
I do not wish to incite another flood of comments yet again in the thread about the authenticity of this video, I just ask that people please exercise some critical thinking about these fakes when/if they happen, by doing things like watching other videos that are confirmed real and comparing what you see to the supposed fake. There was a lot of chatter that the coffee video was based on a visit last year, but if you look at videos of Netanyahu from last year it is VERY CLEAR he is in deteriorating health this year by comparison.
I also think Herzog and other senior figures would be behaving very differently if Netanyahu were removed and there was a power vacuum due to lack of clear succession.
Please see the Janta Ka video, which we just embedded. He asked 3 AI programs and they all found indicators it was AI. The AI gave SPECIFIC reasons, had you bothered listening, I suggest you listen to what the AIs found dodgy as opposed to giving an airy dismissal.
Also I immediately read the coffee video as phony, in less a minute, in spite of being disposed to think it was genuine by virtue of your defense of the longer one which I had not seen. The cup was paper and had no hot coffee paper cradle. You cannot hold them comfortably for more than a short time without one and not burn yourself.
The fact that Netanyahu missed a Security Council meeting, which he now chairs, for the first time in 20 years, with no explanation, says it is not unreasonable to question WTF is up with him.
The cup was also VERY full yet the Netanyahu figure paid that no mind. With no lid, you’d have to give it a fair bit of attention to avoid a spill.
I must also point out that a friend of the site is involved as a witness in a litigation that centers authenticity of a video. The defendant claims it is AI and he has been framed by ab industry professional, long known to hate the defendant, who uploaded it. My colleague says it has been forensically impossible to determine if it is genuine or not.
So please do not lecture me about a lack of critical thinking skills in light of that.
Btw, another Netanyahu vid went up on his twitter account about half an hour ago.
https://x.com/netanyahu/status/2033515975379911114
Well, maybe this one looks genuine enough to settle the matter. But how about just having him see some people in the flesh who are truly independent?
Yves:
I see you modified your post (of timestamp 8:18 am), without any indication.
This is a deceptive practice (it should say edited, or update the timestep, etc). Please refrain from doing it in the future.
No, you are exhibiting a lack of reading comprehension or are explicitly acting in bad faith to manufacture a bogus basis for attacking this site.
You are holding this site to an standard that mainstream media sites rarely if ever observe. Finance/business outlets in particularly regularly update and modify their pieces in light of later developments without documenting their changes, including of their headlines.
This post says AT THE VERY TOP that it fired before complete. You dodo, that means it WILL BE MODIFIED before done. I regularly do that and indicate so at the top of post so that they will still be included in our daily e-mail, which fires at 7:00 AM Eastern.
In addition, readers REGULARLY flag typos or other errors, like a duplicate video, and I correct them. This happens with virtually every long post I publish.
GYOFB.
I swear to god, if he’s holding coffee in this new video, I will go to Starbucks and recreate everything, risking IInd degree burns.
Edit : No coffee. Jury is out.
People pointing out that his wedding ring appears and disappears between 0:22 and 0:26 of the latest video.
Schrodinger’s marriage?
Its suspicious that the only video we get is from the Israeli government, and that these videos of him allegedly in public are filmed from very close up and never show more than a handful of people in total.
Where are the other Israelis filming Netanyahoo and taking selfies for their instagram?
Two times now he shows up in public and nobody at all thought to take out their phones for a video even from far away?
To me the most obvious explanation of the oddities if he is alive (as I assume he is for now) seems that he is hiding somewhere far from Israel like the cowardly rat that he is, quite possibly in the US with his equally rotten and useless family, but the Israeli government hides the fact because of the awful optics and they use AI to make it look like he is holding the fort at home.
I presume the subtext of this latest video clip is: “look at me, I am outdoors in the sunshine in Israel with no sirens, no clouds of smoke rolling across the horizon, flirting with pretty women, unafraid of assassination by drone or ballistic missiles.”
The War of Narratives never rests.
Indeed.
As someone who habitually fills my coffee cup too full and has to clean up the coffee shop counter on an almost daily basis, the first coffee video was clearly at least AI-enhanced. But why enhance a little coffee spill?
This new one doesn’t have anything that jumps out at me as fake, but the subject matter is dubious considering the current circumstances.
I’ll believe he is really hale and hearty when he gives a presser addressing the war. Which hopefully results in an Iranian missile finding him too.
Slow return to public life after a medical event, perhaps a transplant of better parts?
Same jacket, same weather, same bodyguards with facemasks?
It may not be IA, but it also does not look recent.
I smell desperation. Something is wrong with Netanyahu.
Well, if it’s fully legit, he has insanely more spatial awareness and body equilibrium than me. I definitely would’ve spilled the top 20% of my cup if I tried that – but then, I’m definitely bad at this. If he’s been a baristo or a waiter in the past, it may explain. As noted by some, the coffee moves around sometimes, and seems nearly spilling a couple of times, but doesn’t really.
So I’ll remain a bit agnostic on this, but I won’t be surprised if it turns out it was filmed by someone who took a sip then moved around with his head firmly fixed on the cup instead of looking at the camera, then the guy’s head was replaced with Netanayhu’s.
By the way, early on, he was reported to have flown away to Europe – at least his plane apparently made such a trip. So, any chance his longer video may have been shot there and not in Jerusalem, and he’s there, either wounded or just fleeing ground zero – thefore, of course, he can’t attend security meetings or shoot videos in Israeli cafes?
At least, Zelensky is far more convincing and pulls up far better videos when people are wondering where he is.
One may even wonder if this isn’t indirectly taunting Khamenei Jr, to push him to release a first recent video of him.
Last but not least, thanks for the juge crazy work, staying on top of this huge complicated mess, with great daily updates!
The claim that he went to Europe was debunked by Euronews…not that that is dispositive. Re the denial, to quote Mandy Rice-Davies in the Profumo affair, “Well he would, wouldn’t he?”
That alone is not dispositive. In Australia, take away coffee cups are usually double-walled, and separate cradles (like a corrugated cardboard sleeve, if that’s the sort of thing you mean?) are unnecessary and almost never seen. Could be the same in Israel.
Re that deteriorated health–months back Alastair Crooke was saying that Netanyahu has a bad ticker and could exit for health reasons. Perhaps both Bibi and Donnie are all “apres moi, le deluge.” In any case just seeing him in a video –even if real–tells us very little.
To add to the end times vibe a tornado or near tornado passed north of town a few minutes ago. Our future could be a literal deluge and not just the already here deluge of corruption and dishonesty.
Was expecting that squall line to be more dramatic but they come and go quickly.
From what we’ve heard about the Iranians now “getting personal” by targeting Zionist leadership, it would make sense for Bibi to lay low and disappear from public view for a little while. There was a parallel story about the Indian journalist Aditya Raj Kaul following Netanyahu around almost like a stalker, and then some (apparently debunked?) claim that Kaul had been arrested by the Israelis for exposing the Bibi’s whereabouts.
Regardless of the authenticity of Netanyahu’s little coffee shop PR stunt video, it’s striking just how many people on social media have jumped on it. I have already seen a whole bunch of other mocking remixes, with Macron, Khamenei, Kim Jong, etc. etc.
I can’t help but read this as a collective outburst of Schadenfreude. Many people evidently want to see Bibi in a box.
Why the US might have expected an uprising in Iran:
Mojtaba Khamenei has amassed sprawling international investments, while economic hardship at home has sparked Iran’s deadliest protests in decades.
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/world/middle-east/how-the-son-of-irans-supreme-leader-built-a-global-property-empire-1933990
I think this article is complete nonsense. I’ve seen it parroted around on numerous other sites. How would someone from sanctioned Iran have properties in London? In fact, I encourage anyone living near one of these properties to pelt it with rocks and molotov cocktails to stick it to Iran. The only purpose of such nonsense is to get domestic support for regime change in Iran.
Khameini Bad for Amassing Properties
But
Zelensky Good?
So even if true (the Iranian leader’s alleged foreign wealth), consistent standard not applied. Again and as always. To the pure all things are pure.
Why exactly would a man in his position believe that wealth stored in Western assets would be the least bit safe ? Why exactly is he sending embezzled money to the West where it can be conveniently sanctioned and confiscated ? One would think if he wanted a well-provided bolthole in the event of the necessity to flee Iran, he’d be sending money to Moscow or Beijing, not London. The evidence offered in this article is sourced only to “according to people familiar with the matter and the assessment of a leading Western intelligence agency” or “say the people, who requested anonymity for fear of retribution or because they’re not authorized to speak publicly”. Shorter Bloomberg : “Trust us we’ve seen the evidence, but we can’t show you it, or tell you where it came from.” Is that supposed to be convincing ?
US new media lies, and they lie a lot. And when they’re not lying, they twists facts and selectively tell half-truths. And that’s before we even start factoring in the govt control and censorship.
Your article is 100% propaganda, finest USA-grade. It’s just lies. It’s about as true as the US propaganda from an earlier war that said Germans are asiatic Huns and they eat babies. (this was some years before the Germans started their whole “ubermensch” aryan thing).
Well, no it wasn’t before they started their whole úbermensch thing (which the Brits loved until 1914 as one easily gleans from reading Chesterton who nonetheless swallowed and advanced the Hun propaganda messaging) but it was false (the baby eating) independently and regardless. And Wilhelmine Germany had already enjoyed its genocide in Namibia.
That reads a lot like all those “Putin is the richest man in the world” articles we’ve seen for years. A little research traces those claims back to Bill Browder, the hedge fund guy who looted Russia in the 90s and got peeved when Russia had the audacity to ask him to pay some taxes.
I suspect something similar is going on here given all the anonymous sources.
Persians might be bigger AuBugs than Indians, for what its worth.
And Putin is a multi billionaire and had a Neronian villa build for him on the Black Sea… we heard these things before. Likely the Panama Papers, post-dated, will reveal some more details on Mohtaba K.
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So much winning It’s UNBELIEVABLE!
Trump has solidified his position as the GREATEST AMERICAN PRESIDENT since Joe Biden.
Are the rumors that Trump plans to accept the Iranian surrender on the decks of the USS Missouri credible?
Asking for a friend.
Re the lack of parachutes on the KC-135 – Juan Browne (blancolirio on YouTube, IIRC someone posted the link to his KC-135 video yesterday) explained why they were removed a while ago.
If my memory of the video is correct, it boiled down to crew not being able to successfully evacuate a four engined (tanker) jet by parachute so the ‘chutes provide chocolate teapot levels of utility.
One would think that someone would have tried to figure out an alternative way of evacuating the crew, but that’s a separate problem.
True and it’s a bit more complicated. Unlike the days of ww2 bombers whose planes were unpressurized, they wore extremely warm clothes and those planes didn’t fly as high and about 1/2 as fast.
So jumping out of a plane at 30,000’ at -40 with your thin flight suit on, no o2, and at 500 mph is not a very survivable situation even if you can get out of the plane in one piece and if the aircraft is in a stable condition let alone falling out of control.
Could they make it safer to get out? I’d like to think someone thought about how to do it.
Sad situation regardless of how it happened.
Check out the F-111 ejection capsule. The entire 2 man cockpit was designed to eject with crew inside.
With spinal compression fracture (guaranteeing loss of flying status) rates so high air crews often flew the plane into the ground trying save it. It takes a lot of power to eject a capsule. Based on my 4 year experience as a flight medic at a F-111D base. Not scientific, but commonly accepted as truth by Dr.’s and flight crews
I knew a pilot who ejected from F-4 and later F-111, his back injury from the capsule ended his flying. He said he had no situational awareness going into the impact. Sample of 1.
Which means a successful shoot down doesn’t need to kill the pilot to remove said pilot from combat in modern war. Just forcing an ejection is sufficient. And pilots are quite expensive to train, I believe.
We’re getting a masterclass from Russian and now Iran on how missiles and drones are the future of aerial combat.
My father in law ejected from a Sabre on take off in Germany. The combination of the force of the ejection and landing in a turnip field broke his back. It did not end his flying career but he suffered for the rest of his life and collected a disability pension.
When the Boeing 707/KC-135 was introduced in 1957 it required a crew of 4 to fly the plane. The KC-135 also requires a boom operator, so originally required a crew of 5 now down to 3. That would be a very large capsule to get 5 out of the plane. Also, I have not seen this reported but a very reliable source tells me that although there is normally only a crew of 3 usually on a KC-135 crew, in this case the additional crew members were present because it was a new crew’s first trip into a dangerous area and it is SOP to have along a pilot and boom operator who have previously made the trip. That would mean a crew of 5 instead of six. My source said that the additional pilot most likely, while not required, volunteered to go along his crew mates.
Four zeros and two enlisted got smoked: the zeros were all qualified pilots and both enlisted were boom operators:
Pentagon identifies six airmen killed in KC-135 crash in Iraq
The extra pilots and boom operator could be expained away if the ill-fated sortie was being used as a check-ride or qualification flight– they weren’t over hostile territory, right? That, or one of the extra pilots was being used as a nav due to EW/electrical interference in the region.
Shortly after the Wright brothers made their first flight, I was a crewmember on C5s and C130s. The exact composition (size and specialty) of our aircrews was dictated by the nature of the mission (air-land, airdorp, initial/annual qualifications, etc.)… it also depended on if we were going somewhere nice or not, but that’s a different story.
You may be right. Since you have experience flying you may have heard the expression “over the shoulder crew” which is the term he uses to describe what they were doing.
Juan Browne also mentioned that they may have doubled up the crew due to the length of the sortie.
Yes, that’s a possibility too.
I was QCM at a airbase project a few years ago and got to know the XO and E9 of a tanker squadron who’s space the project was occupying. I asked something about ‘chutes and the E9 said that ‘chutes are pointless since a tanker is a fireball if anything happens. I’m not sure if he was serious or not but the XO just nodded. They fielded my questions about their airplanes and asked questions about my fuel pipeline and taxiway pavement.
Tangent, but related: people have no idea what a modern runway pavement system looks like. It’s almost a meter of doubly reinforced concrete. Each panel is constructed like a freeway bridge beam. Why? Planes are really heavy in general, but especially re. wheel loads. Runway and taxiway pavements are nearly impossible to blow up in a way that can’t simply be filled and patched. It might be rough, but useable after a few hours.
I have toured aircraft manufacturer prototype airliners used in flight testing that had bottom of the fuselage evacuation chutes for flight test crew leaving the airplane with a parachute. I expect for the initial flight testing the airplanes were not pressurized and the crew was on oxygen.
Regarding the future of US bases, I found this article on Iraq interesting. The Iraqi parliament has made previous calls for getting the US troops out of the country. If Iran gets them out, preventing them from coming back should be popular.
Would that give Iraq their oil money to rebuild?
Yeah doesnt the US government collect all Iraq’s oil money still?
Seems like getting the troops out is only their first step.
If you have the oil, you can always ask to see the yuans before pumping it aboard.
Given we’re talking about a supply shock on crude oil I am doubtful there will be a price crash for WTI. Granted it is not ideal for certain refineries because it is a lighter crude oil, but the alternative is no production which means no output. While that could be a possibility which would cause a drop in WTI, it would also create even a bigger shortage. I think refiners would be more inclined and under pressure to keep diesel production going. The problem with using more lighter crudes in facilities that are not optimized for them is that their outputs will be a higher proportion of lighter products. What is more likely to happen is that we’ll get a supply imbalance on the lighter product output side and possibly/likely falling prices there. If I recall correctly this scenario played out, but less dramatically, in the 90’s with European refiners. There was a large increase in diesel consumption in Europe and the refiners were slow in changing production and crude supply contracts so as they increased diesel production to meet the market they also ended up with an oversupply as gasoline outputs. Those excesses got shipped to the US which weighed negatively on US gasoline prices for several years until the refiners were able to modify their facilities and supplies to better balance outputs with diesel demand.
Don’t know about the price, but that article did mention what’s going to shut down refineries. Hydrocrackers need hydrogen to make diesel and gasoline. No natural gas, no steam reformers, no hydrogen at the refineries. Also, unless they’ve installed dual fuel boilers, they need natural for process heat.
If you are correct, do you think the spread between Brent and WTI will widen?
I’m wondering what the community thinks of the spread of the market price of oil, vs the physical price showing up at $140 a barrel. When do those worlds collide? And why does the market not yet seem to acknowledge what’s happening?
A useful oilprice.com article on the subject from a couple of days ago – https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Futures-Market-Misreads-the-Hormuz-Oil-Shock.html
And other oil-adjacent news sources and podcasts are taking more or less the same line. The futures market is a “paper” market, and by the way, there used to be a big chunk of speculative trading there (though the exchanges now make exact data more difficult to get at). On the physical side, everybody is looking for cargoes, especially since the last pre-February 28 cargoes are slated to arrive some time this week, meaning by next week you physically get nothing (next to nothing) out of the Gulf. And this means they are outbidding each other, to the point where I’ve heard some tankers already in transit are being redirected because a different purchaser offered an extra $5 per barrel to the seller. This is the real reason why the Urals on a physical basis is trading much higher than Brent – because it is available, and because every importer country is trying to outbid each other for it.
Another thing to keep in mind – the Gulf may be producing ~20% of the world’s oil, but it is producing >30% of EXPORTED oil. In other words, for importer countries the shortage is much more severe. [And similarly for importer-exporter countries like the US.] And here we get to the real question – will countries try to sustain refining and domestic demand volumes – in the case of the US, this also means maintaining the current refining mix of different crude types – and this means a bidding war for physical cargoes, which one would think the “paper” market would eventually come to at least vaguely reflect; or will there be forced or voluntary (as, apparently, in China) reductions on the demand side, both the refineries and end users, so that the physical will “come back” to the “paper”.
Honestly, I think it’s a question of how long this war lasts. Very short means the futures guys are right; very long means demand destruction; somewhere in-between means a panic in the futures markets at some point. I think.
Honestly, I think it’s a question of how long this war lasts. Very short means the futures guys are right; very long means demand destruction;
It’s a race. Can the US destroy Irans missile/Drone/sea mine capabilities before Iran forces the price of oil to be at least a 120 for many months? I don’t see how the US can do it given how asymmetric the fight is. So my answer is Iran wins the race
I wish I knew more about the oil industry in order to parse Newbury’s piece properly, but it feels like one of the more important breakdowns published in the last few days (together with that early one that mapped all the industries). It seems to note that what people have been fixated upon (for good reason) i.e. the price of Brent Crude as an inflationary domino throughout the economy is actually kind of a side concern. The collapse of throughput, if actually realized, could potentially cause permanent damage to production facilities (or long-term damage, which nowadays amounts to the same). If so, then we, like Dorothy, won’t be in Kansas anymore, to put it mildly.
Regarding the WTI and naphtha clot essay, I’d recommend paying attention to the first comment in the original Substack post. It’s a long, technical qualification of the argument that found a considerable weakness.
Thanks! I should have thought to do that. Will give it a read.
I did put the article at the very end of this post for a reason. If I had had high confidence, I would have showcased it at the top.
That first comment by ChinArb is indeed excellent. He does not question the actual logic of Newberry’s argument, but the inevitability of the Naptha inversion occurring. I think he is saying the safety valve is EU and Asia demand for WTI. At the end of his comment he usefully identifies four real-time financial diagnostic indicators as to whether the ‘Naphtha clot’ will play out in the way Newberry fears. His summary: “We do not need to wait for WTI to go negative. If we start seeing vessel queues, berthing delays,and VLCC reverse-lightering bottlenecks at Corpus Christi or Sabine Pass, that is the physical precursor to a Cushing inversion. It will show up on satellite AIS data two to three weeks before the price signal.”
Corpus Christie may have some other reasons for delays:
After a decade of missteps, Corpus Christi careens toward water catastrophe
https://www.texastribune.org/author/inside-climate-news/
“CORPUS CHRISTI — The imminent depletion of water supplies in Corpus Christi threatens to cut off the flow of jet fuel to Texas airports and other oil exports from one of the nation’s largest petroleum ports, triggering potential shockwaves through energy markets in Texas and beyond.
Without significant rainfall, Corpus Christi is headed for a “water emergency” within months and will reach a point next year where city supply can no longer meet demand, according to the city’s website. At that critical point, the city would be unable to deliver water to its customers — a potential catastrophe for Corpus Christi and beyond, experts and people knowledgable about the city’s water system say.
The region’s largest industrial users, which collectively consume the majority of the region’s water, remain exempt from emergency curtailment. These multi-billion-dollar refineries, petrochemical plants and liquified natural gas facilities are built to run at a steady rate and can’t simply throttle down production in accordance with water availability. They consume large volumes of water primarily in cooling towers to prevent excessive heating and explosions. “
Corpus Christi and water. Good Lord. What an example of how dysfunctional our public planning system has become. The City oversells its water to industry, then can’t build the desalinization plant needed to supply the shortfall. The refineries and chemical plants rely on municipal water — they did not invest in creating their own supply. An example of the short-term profits above all mindset of modern capitalism. Without a hurricane that dumps 20 – 30 inches of rain this summer, the City will run out of water this fall. As one observer said, the refineries and chemical plants will probably build their own water projects, somehow, and possibly restart their facilities they will have to mothball in the meantime. What does that do to Newbury’s logic chain? (Apologies for misspelling his name earlier).
I don’t think the insightful comment identifies a weakness so much as a missing condition that has to be true for the scenario painted to occur.
However, I think there are other missing conditions, especially regarding Russia
– Russia is able to supply mid-weight oil (IIRC) and has pipelines in place to that some. Some of them have been lightly bombed but could be quickly repaired
– Russia has gas in abundance and pipelines that are current unusued (part of Nordstream). It also had an ammonia pipeline across the Ukraine which, again, was bombed but could be reinstated
– it seems to me that Russia can supply significant flexibility to Europe in refining oil into light, middle and heavy distillates and in producing nitrogen / ammonia / fertiliser etc.
– so the scenario for foreign demand for WTI requires Russia and others to be unable to meet this – or Europe to refuse to drink from the trough. Here, sadly, the USA’s interest in protecting its natural gas production coincides with Europe’s wish to be at war with Russia. So, if the Straits remain closed, the USA needs to keep Europe buying by keeping the war with Russia going or its domestic gas production will be shut in
– if Europe wakes up to its vassalhood and decides to join in on the side of the World Island rather than the Atlanticists and the straits remain closed, the USA is screwed….
I think the argument comes down to whether foreign “ravenous” appetite for WTI holds up or slows but persists. The article assumes it collapses. The comment suggests it won’t. Which they agree can be confirmed by watching WTI export volumes or, assuming they remain available, watching satellite imaging for tankers piling up around US export points.
Doomberg has an article looking more broadly at why oil prices have not reacted more. While they talk their book, they do seem well informed. Alas it is behind a pay wall.
the IEA dump solved a narrowly-defined problem for the next 60 days.
All the supply chain issues (including that naphtha article, managing the juggling act of aligning global refiners with demand and non-Gulf supply) are still unresolved—merely postponed. DC pundits are acting as if this is a ball game and if Trump says, “I’m ending the game” that the Iranians will say, “ok.”
On the economic front i read today an article (in Spanish) saying that “2026 would be a catastrophic year for the [Spanish] steel industry as it relies heavily on NG and then logistics becoming more expensive too. The steel management is already asking for subsidies “for the companies and the families” (families?) to the tune of billions of euros. PMCastes in action: free markets + subsidies because we merit it.
You can see where the price of everything is going.
How is Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez doing?
Not very well though, I have to say, I have better opinion on Sánchez and his policies than in any other European chief of state (amongst those I have read something about their political actions). In energy matters i believe he is doing between “not bad” and “OK” virtue of the good team he chose for these affairs.
Thanks for the response.
How much leverage does King Felipe VI still hold in running the affairs of the state given that the prime minister comes from Socialist Workers’ Party?
Did PM Sanchez position of not supporting Don Donald’s war in Iran not conflict with the personal preference of King Felipe?
The King has no power other than ceremonial. He also decides the expenses of the Royal House that’s it. Having ceremonial power is something if you ask me but he must be extremely careful not to look partisan in any way or form.
A bit above my pay grade here but as has been shown by that Helium article and other articles to do with computer chip production in places like Taiwan makes me wonder. If computer chip production slows down in a major way, does this have a major effect on the building of all those AI data centers in the US? I don’t know what other components may be effected in those centers with the coming shortages but when combined, will this not put a massive spanner in the introduction of AI in the US if not run it into a ditch?
Probably eventually, but right now AI is eating the parts that would otherwise go to ordinary electronics. For example RAM.
As long as the AI bubble goes on, AI will be first in line for everything, it is the rest that will be hit, like shortages and price hikes in consumer goods.
Taiwan only has a few days of oil left (it was 9 days last week), and it is unlikely that in the current situation, the US will share LNG (the US already demonstrated that when supply gets cut (hurricane), it does not honor contracts (!) with Europe). No oil, no chips.
Fortunately, Taiwan is next to the largest petroleum reserves on the planet, which, if they declared themselves part of China again (they never actually said they weren’t – they only said that they were the leaders of a single China). Economic collapse and starvation or . . .
It’s 11 days of LNG and 90 days of oil…..***but*** Taiwan always has only 11 days of LNG.
Taiwan gets roughly 1 LNG delivery every 3 days. I was shocked that of all things, the Taiwan govt settled for just-in-time LNG, lmao.
In hindsight, all that bellicose rhetoric from Taipei re. its relations w/China looks even more retarded.
And risk having all those reserves blown up?
The American oligarchs can call upon their Russian counterparts, assuming there are any left standing, and hire some Russian experts in stripping electronics parts from washing machines and other domestic items for “national offense” purposes.
Liquid helium for cooling these production macines is also an issue as well as sulphur for sulphuric acid etching of boards
Donald Trump Stuns With ‘Maybe We Shouldn’t Even Be There’ Admission About Iran War
Donald Trump left critics in disbelief on Sunday with a remark about his Iran war during a press gaggle aboard Air Force One.
…
He later said: “So, we need, I, I would really, I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory because it is their territory, it’s the place from which they get their energy and they should come and they should help us protect it.”
Then came the line that quickly sparked reaction online:
“You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all because we don’t need it.”
“We have a lot of oil,” said Trump. “We were the number one producer anywhere in the world times two by double, at least double. Now I think it’s much higher than that. But we do it. It’s almost like we do it for habit, but we also do it for some very good allies that we have in the Middle East.”
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-be-there-remark-iran_n_69b7a00ce4b0fa6e89804bb0
I have noticed that when Trump gives these interviews aboard Air Force One, that you are seeing the real, unfiltered Trump. No prepared speeches, no sitting at a desk, no notes, just off the cuff remarks which can be pretty terrible. And sometimes he speaks without putting his brain into gear like he did here. So it is always a good idea to listen to his Air Force One interviews.
They always look like he’s speaking from a toilet door.
So, is what he’s saying before or after. (Sorry, couldn’t resist).
IMO, Trump looks to be always like in the very last instant before. Just when it starts leaning out. Not ever culminating.
I beg your pardon for this.
I considered that he’s standing at the door separating the Presidential suite and other amenities (conference room, etc) from the press and lower staff, in the economy area…
astute.
It used to be said that the most dangerous place in DC was between a US senator and a camera. Trump takes this to a new level and simply won’t shut up.
Hah! I have lived in DC for decades and the version I heard many years ago named one particular senator: Chuck Schumer. I believe your more generalized version is also correct.
> maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all
It might be another “why don’t we just enroll everyone in Medicare?” type stopped clock right twice a day moment.
Or perhaps, more hopefully, it’s a hint that he is looking for a face-saving way to retreat.
1st quote, “The IRGC has reportedly begun laying naval mines. The US Navy remains weeks from escort readiness. Bangladesh’s urea factories remain largely dark. India is asking China for help. The latest FAO Food Price Index reading, released on March 6 for February, still reflects a world before the Hormuz shock had time to pass through fertilizer, grain, energy, and freight channels. It registered 125.3 points, up 0.9 percent on the month but still 21.8 percent below the March 2022 peak. The March and April releases will reveal whether this remains a violent input shock or begins to migrate into food-system stress. Gold trades above $5,100 per ounce. Brent crude above $99 per barrel. Both as of March 14.
And across the agricultural regions of four continents, the spring planting window is closing, one irreversible day at a time, on farms whose operators do not know whether the molecules they need to produce the food the world needs to eat will arrive before the soil chemistry that governs their yields renders the question permanently moot.” https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-nitrogen-trap?r=wh9r
I took a cursory look at the urea situation.
As I understand it (and happy if any chemist wants to correct me) fossile gas is not strictly necessary, urea can be made without. The Haber-Bosch process to produce the necessary ammonia for the urea production needs hydrogen which typically comes from natural gas. The hydrogen can come from alternative sources, but blue and green hydrogen adds up to just 1% of world production.
Presumably blue and green hydrogen has higher energy cost, and the current production lines is set up for fossile gas. Denmark has since 2024 one plant to produce green ammonia, and it was hailed as the first of its kind.
So “all” it would take is a industrial crash program which takes an industrial base, industrial policy, political will, and time. Unless China is already doing an industrial crash program that didn’t turn up in my searches, I don’t see it happening any time soon.
The H2 project i like the most in Spain is precisely to be used for nitrogen fixation into ammonium for fertilizers. It makes sense in many ways: rural development, decarbonization, reduction of dependence on foreign resopurces… starting production supposedly in 2027. Couldn’t they accelerate? Come on, it is necessary. This is where the PMC fails when they cannot distinguish what is and what isn’t of strategic interest. What needs active political push and what can be left to “markets”.
My congratulations to Denmark.
Question: Until recently, in SoCal, 50 lb bags of nitrate fertilizer (pasture owner here) routinely showed Norway as a country of origin. Anyone have any stats about Scandinavian/Iceland hydro power supported production?
What’s that phrase? “High on their own supply”? Will the Saudis and the neocons have a vote on the existence of those bases? And I do think we are seeing generational military losses. This war has all but destroyed the gulf family kingdoms. Trump may see himself as the second coming of Croesus and, if so, he is seeing a “might empire” if not destroyed completely, brought to its knees as its partner, Greater Israel, is being dismantled. One might paraphrase Churchill saying that, “Never in the field of human conflict has the intended victim been so misjudged.” It is far from over. Iran has suffered. Donnie keeps declaring it defeated, destroyed and disarmed, yet the missiles keep coming, the crowds in the streets defiant.
Hezbollah did not exist until Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982. Hamas won election after repeated Israeli “incursions” into Gaza. The Houthi never attacked Israel or selectively closed off the Red Sea before the beginning of the systematic destruction of Gaza and the genocide of the population. Bibi has wanted Iran brought low because it appeared to be a rock in the road to Israel’s domination of West Asia, its goal and that of its patron the United States. Conclusion: The difficulties Israel and the US face in the conquest of Iran are of their own making. Karma, baby.
After his kingdom was demolished, Croesus became a courtier (who dispensed good advice) to Cyrus. Just sayin’
2nd quote.”This is the story of the Nitrogen Trap. It is not primarily a story about war, though war is its catalyst. It is not primarily a story about oil, though Brent crude closed above $100 per barrel on March 12. It is not primarily a story about commodity markets, though fertilizer equities have surged roughly forty percent in fourteen trading days. It is the story of a civilization that optimized every node of its food production system for cost efficiency while concentrating existential dependencies in chokepoints it cannot control, inputs it does not stockpile, and insurance markets it does not regulate. The answer, as we are about to discover, is that these systems are not merely repricing. They are fracturing. And the fractures propagate through at least fourteen distinct transmission channels, from the farm gates of Iowa to the bread queues of Cairo, from the urea factories of Chattogram to the diesel exhaust systems of Australian road trains, from the desalination plants of Bahrain to the generic drug factories of Hyderabad, in a cascading architecture of failure that no consensus model has yet mapped in its entirety.”
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-nitrogen-trap?r=wh9r
re: Obama
For fun I typed in “Obama espionage act reporters” in Google and got a serious response with this first phrase:
“The Obama administration used the 1917 Espionage Act to prosecute eight individuals for leaking to the press, more than all previous administrations combined, earning a reputation for having a “war on leaks.””
And even giving the 8 names:
Thomas Drake, Shamai Leibowitz, Stephen Kim, Chelsea Manning, Donald Sachtleben, Jeffrey Sterling, John Kiriakou, and Edward Snowden.
Of course the problem is: Who would ever type such stuff without already knowing about this being a serious issue? After all Obama is a combination of Santa Claus, Malcolm X, MLK and Wesley Snipes. He is the goodest of good people.
Went to the local bookstore yesterday and discovered another thing about Obama, 40% Off. Joining him on the discount shelf of indignity was Lord Blankcheck and “Welcome to the family” Bill Gates.
When nobody reads (or reads of) you…
Unfortunately, to print the books no one reads, that tree still does fall in the forest.
Re: the regime change failure–
Mercouris has an interesting story (spot cut), which he’s cautious about, that may explain the complete failure of the attempted regime change even though it has seemed that Mossad/CIA/MI6 had Iran pretty well wired going back to last June when so many Iranian leaders were killed. The head of the IRGC Quds force, a replacement for the assassinated Soleimani, was a mole. He’s now been executed.
Did he get it from his friend Larry? Details here
https://sonar21.com/trump-is-trapped-but-doesnt-know-it/
Interesting thought experiment. Compare Iran’s treatment of traitors with US treatment of Confederate leaders.
That would explain why Soleimani was taken out…
Also accounts for how Soleimani was taken out. A regular Duras. (Star Trek ref)
I like the reference, but in that case Duras was removed because he killed K’Ehleyr, and Worf invoked his right as her mate, not because Duras was a traitor.
Although it did put a major dent in the family’s ambitions…
Well, Duras only Killed K’Ehleyr because she dug into the files relating to Worf’s discommendation and discovered it was Duras’s father and house that were the traitors to the Empire not Worf.
The best way for Trump to save his presidency, perhaps the only way, would be for him to throw Israel under the bus. Cut off the supply of weapons and ammunition. Bring home all the military and intelligence personnel. Stop supplying satellite data. Trump loves to fire employees and this would be just like that, only his biggest firing ever.
He had better do it pronto, though, before Iran defeats Israel and the USA. Firing Israel would be such big news it would enable Trump to snatch victory from defeat, at least in the propaganda world. It might even save the petrodollar, at least for a couple years.
Of course Trump will never fire Israel. He’s too arrogant. He’s on course for an epic downfall, like in a Greek tragedy.
More to the point, Trump will never fire Israel for the same reason Trump launched fire on Israel’s behalf in the first place: He’s too blackmailed.
Since this possibility first came up I’ve thought he could avoid it by simply saying Fake News. Now, with the Netanyahu video controversy, it seems it really would be impossible to prove either way.
I don’t think he’s really a Zionist either. He only cares about his own interests and, maybe, those of his family. Thus I think it’s near impossible to say what he will or won’t do.
Roy Cohn was Trump’s Mentor and Cohn’s life was centered on corrupting and blackmailing people of influence.
Cohn ran the Sex/Blackmail ring that was eventually taken over by Epstein, the idea that he would not have serious dirt on a billionaire mentee is absurd.
“My name is DonaldTacoTrump, King of Kings;
Look on my Works ye Mighty and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
Apologies to Shelley ;-)
My husband has banned the use of Trump’s name in our house. We have developed various codes and nicknames to use instead. One of my latest is “Orange Ozymandias.”
Personally, I’m partial to “GROFAZ”
We use dingle sh*ts.
Seems the most fitting.
Trump announced he is speaking at 11:45am EST today. I can see him declaring a 48hr cessation of bombing to allow Iran to come to their senses. Trump has to feel like he has agency and giving Iran a deadline will feed his desire.
hopefully climbdown via ‘winning/have won’, else the announcement of sending Marines on a suicide mission, or (cannot be discounted) of nuclear escalation. i tend to think he doesn’t want either of the latter two on his watch/legacy/potatoes.
many voices have been aired to the White House; we’ll see if any have been listened to outside the echochamber. perhaps susie put down the wineglass and realized, in tandem with other elements, she has to right the ship fueled by a bunch of amphetamine addicts.
pure theatre: ‘the Sugar King!’)
nothing, ultimately. all know he’s in over his head. want to play local american real estate bully? fine. this? other elements are at play and share majorly in blame (look to rubio, adelson, et al, hegseth’s a grunt). he wants out if he can’t grab an immediate, surface-level victory. gives away so much in his verbiage, and comprehends so little. could we do any better? i’d like to think so.
i’m reassured that there’s no cohesive clue, and no present desire to escalate. china et al ain’t comin’ to help ya, don. the situation is entirely in the hands of iran, russia, china.
Regarding Netanyahu, sudden radical changes in well-established patterns of behavior require explanation. I believe it is non-controversial that Netanyahu’s non-appearance at Israel’s security council meeting, his absence from any TV interviews or press briefings, etc. constitute radical changes in behavior. The videos “proving” life—both in controlled environments—are also weird, even if genuine. From this it does *not* follow that N is either dead or injured, but it does suggest that something is going on. Perhaps N has intelligence that Iran is capable of tracking his location, perhaps Israel is trying to uncover what they believe is an Iranian mole in Israeli government, perhaps things are going so badly in Israel that Netanyahu doesn’t want to face any interviews. Something is going on, in other words. We just don’t know what that thing is.
Regarding Yves’ statement about Gulf monarchies: “Would Iran peel them off from the US by letting their ships transit the Strait in return for committing to a neutral status, which would clearly mean “No more US forces”? If one were to break and go this route, it seems hard to imagine that others would not follow.”
I am not sure the gulf states are in a position to do this. The US plays a key role in propping up these governments, so without US “protection” on site wouldn’t they risk the stability of their regimes? And in any case none of these states arguably has the power to kick the US out even if they wanted to. I can see a situation where the US simply calls their bluff, and they do nothing—both because of the iron law of institutions and because of the imbalanced power dynamic between themselves and the US military. The gulf states may be in a position where they *must* make this kind of adjustment to survive economically but they are simultaneously unable to make it for political reasons.
The US is not currently propping up these governments (and less so as it is completely kicked out of the region). Meanwhile, Iran can (or not if it chooses) actively aid opposition leaders with loitering munitions targeting regime forces, and a flow of arms (particularly drones) to opposition forces.
They are in a tough position. Too bad.
And of course, Iran can destroy their economies (or ability to sustain life) at any time in the future. My assessment is that Iran has a much stronger hand than the US. And then toss in Russian and Chinese support.
Certainly the Iraqi Parliament has voted for the US to leave Iraq but they refuse. Now as it stands those US forces are under attack and there appears to be no plan to pull them out of Iraq. Kinda the same with the US bases in the Gulf States. They are under repeated attack by Iranian missiles and drones and are about out of interceptor missiles. And as Stanislav Krapivnik has pointed out, the Iranians may soon turn their attention to the troops at those bases to run up a body count. Still can’t believe that there are no bunkers for those bases so I guess that they may have to make do with slit trenches. And if those troops are forced to retreat out of the country, will they be allowed back in considering having Americans in your country only makes you a missile magnet. Seems like the only safety for those Gulf States to be free of Iranian attack is to get rid of those US bases.
trenches in Ukraine produced lots of death by drone.
This is misleading. The UKR case has been short-range FPV drones, connected by fibre to get past the jamming. Don’t think they’ve made 100 km fibre spools and still be capable of getting airborne….
A video-controlled Shahed (with Russian satellite electronics as are seen) can easily enter a trench in a US base. Its not as if the US has functional EW anymore (never did really) on these shattered bases because EW lights up like a fire to many sensors. But why put EW when you are supremely confident in your AD to not even bother with bunkers.
Its also hot in Saudi Arabia now – would not want to be in a trench in the sun.
Au contraire!
https://thedefensepost.com/2025/08/19/ukraine-fiber-optic-drone/
Obviously, that’s a Ukrainian site so it is almost certainly a lie but I have seen Ziggersphere posts of the Russians operating these as described.
Also, Shahed is a drone…. A “suicide drone” no less!
That’s correct, but the US hasn’t demonstrated anti- drone proficiency, particularly on land.
Iran is presumably considering that “running up a body count” also runs the risk of inflaming the American Home Front. If it’s inflamed in a “Bring The Boys Home” way, all well and good. But if the Administration, oligarchs, and MSM spin it to a “REMEMBER THE MAINE!!!!” scenario, then things could get … worse.
Two things I would wonder about: does Bibi have a body double of some sort that can substitute for him if necessary, such as in case of injury or confinement (thinking as in Heinlein’s Double Star or Hope’s Prisoner of Zenda in the fictional realm)? Or, does he have prerecorded videos that can be artfully re-dubbed to have enough content relevant to the present crisis to make them sound contemporary?
It could get really interesting if the Navy actually were to escort ships into the Persian Gulf…and not because of anything the Iranians might do: “Years of Warnings, Then Death and Disaster, How the Navy failed its sailors.”
https://features.propublica.org/navy-accidents/us-navy-crashes-japan-cause-mccain/
That’s a good link that and it made me wonder. This war may end up crippling the US military for years to come if not decades. Look at all the ships parked in this region. Think of the constant wear and tear, the deferred maintenance as well as the differed training. Systems breaking down due to constant use and how most of these ships will have to go into dock when they – eventually – return to the States for extended repair and overhaul. Think too on those sailors who will reconsider their career choices after being at sea for so many months and missing family events like births, funerals, parties, engagements, etc.
Then think about the aircraft – both Navy and Air Force – and how much wear and tear on those air-frames they are experiencing. Those F-35s were supposed to have been upgraded but there is no time. Then a lot of those aircraft being used are old frames and how the maintenance must be a nightmare. And of course those aircrews must be beat after flying so many days and it may be that that tanker collision may have had pilot fatigue as a contributing factor. Lots of those planes maybe headed for the bone yard.
Then there are the troops, especially the ones at those Gulf State bases being bombed. They can see what is happening and how pointless them being there is. Certainly having Trump and Hegseth in charge is demoralizing enough without some commanders going all Crusader mode. And any troops going to this theater may decide to look at a map and see how huge Iran is and how mountainous it is. Superimposed on a map of the US, Iran would stretch from South Dakota all the way to Florida. Bugger that for a joke. And how many of them have training in mountain warfare anyway.
The point of all this is to point out how at least equipment wise, the US will be wrecked for many years to come and lots of its highly sophisticated weaponry will never come back again due to Chinese bans of refined earths like Gallium. I guess that a great empire is falling after all.
I wonder what effect “current events” are going to have on recruitment into our all-volunteer armed forces.
I was also thinking about Iranian cyber attacks on navigation systems. They captured a US drone by hijacking its guidance system in 2011 and then reverse engineered the drone. Have Navy systems been updated? Poor guidance would be particularly perilous if signals get hijacked in dense shipping lanes…
There’s a pretty good chance China has been collecting lots of data on Navy communications and would be happy to share it with Iran.
Also, if Trump gets his wish for a multi-national escort service, what is the likelihood that their communications are all compatible and secure?
And then there’s is the case of the UK’s Prince of Wales aircraft carrier, which has been plagued by all kinds of mechanical problems. https://www.vwc.org.au/the-royal-navys-hms-prince-of-wales-aircraft-carrier-is-in-big-trouble/
Starmer is apparently hesitant about sending it, partly because it would need a French escort, because UK’s escort ships are otherwise occupied or in the dock for maintenance! Most US aircraft carriers are currently undergoing maintenance, too. You have to wonder about combat readiness..
Heh, Trump and multinational escort service….
The UK carriers suffer engine overheating in warm waters. The Gulf has the warmest waters of any major water body. The captain will be able to order “full ahead” for a couple of minutes and then stop….
I am hoping that US military equipment will be “wrecked” enough for resistances to succeed in South America!!
Absolutely. Especially for Venezuela, and Cuba. Would that the military power truly vanishes.
The US no longer has the industrial capacity to build up or repair a fleet.
Consider that in 2000 FMC/BAE had an enormous building complex in Fridley Minnesota that had been manufacturing naval weapons systems since 1940. The building had full-size mock ups of ships up to cruiser size to build and test weapons systems such as Mk.10, Mk.26, ABL, and VLS missile launchers, Mk.45 and Mk.75 guns, etc., from the launch point on deck to the magazine near the keel, beam to beam. Each system was built, installed in its entirety into the ship mockup, tested, dismantled, shipped to the shipyards, installed in the actual ship, and tested again. My dad was one of the techs who eventually managed these crews. I saw these awesome mockups periodically when families were allowed into the plant. A giant section of a ship inside of a building, with missiles moving from the magazines to the launchers and back.
The entire place was torn down starting in the 1990s and no longer exists. The Navy no longer has the resources or knowledge base to mass produce and test these weapon systems. Rebuilding the Navy, or even repair of battle damage at scale, is no longer possible. WW2-level industrial capacity and the associated knowledge base in the US no longer exists. The 1980s level also no longer exists. It’s all nostalgia that is apparently believed by politicians.
The focus went from building the finest naval weapons in the world (the ubiquitous WW2 5″ 38cal gun was primarily built in the Fridley plant) to designing weapons to maximize profit so that no plant was necessary for testing.
The US shipyards are mostly gone, partiularly the east coast Navy Yards, with the capacity sent to China and Korea to make a buck. A design office doesn’t contribute to war fighting capacity when there’s no way to build what you need to fight, even if the crews to train and man the warships are assumed.
And here we are.
I was PM for part of the remediation of the FMC site in 2020-22, as the solvent plume it left behind is quite extensive. One generation builds, the next cleans up the solvent plumes.
To add to the AI Video discussion. I was trying to think about why this video was released. I think it is possible that Netanyahu is either wounded or getting sicker (he is ill). As one would expect, Israel would not want this known at this time. Thus the video is released and the ‘all is well’ narrative can continue. Perhaps it’s just this simple.
Yes, that is a way to square the circle: he is too sick or injured to make public appearances, but no one wants to admit to that
We’ve reached the age that AI god-kings can rule via technocrats forever. Biden was a trial balloon.
The camera tricks used , white balance and exposure, appear to make him look healthier adds some weight to your theory.
The reference to AI-fingers in the coffee shop video makes it clear that they are aware of the allegations and want to refute them. So they release the coffee shop video, but get allegations of AI. Then they release the outdoors video, presumably for the same reason, refute the allegations. But AI being as good as it is, it is hard to see it working since the allegations of AI are already in full swing.
This isn’t an argument on wheter or not it is AI, this is an argument that AI has created a situation where seeing is very far from believing.
You can’t convince me it’s not weird that Netanyahu is not able or willing to attend Israel’s security briefings (at least from what we’ve seen) but is hanging out at cute coffee shops and outdoor patios chatting up random Israelis.
THIS!
Well a possible reason that netanyahu is not willing to attend Israel’s security briefings is that he fears they/he will be successfully targeted
And, as noted upstream, that said random Israelis wouldn’t have been encouraged to shoot their own pictures and video to be shared on the Internet.
That security briefing was the weirdest military presentation I’ve ever seen. Those army guys were slouching in their seats, eyes on the ceiling, looking like they didn’t want to be there. Depressed and ready to either escape to Florida or die in the bunker with der Fuhrer.
Trump briefed that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is probably gay — and president has priceless reaction (NY Post)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We’re down to casting aspersions regarding Persians, you can almost hear the stick rattling inside the swill bucket.
To dismiss him as incompetent?
FOr a few days there was talk of a proxy army with heavy US involvement marching on Tehran from N Iraq (Irbil bases being pounded) or Azerbaijian (took a look and decided the fence was safest) and the Kurds decided to be sensible for once, so now the talk is of a (suicidal and pointless) special ops to Karg Island (or to retrieve US embassy staff left without a plan under constant “bombardment” with radar’s blinded).
And suddenly, why does Israel decide to invade Lebanon to the Litani? Alistaire Crooke reports, the IDF knows nothing about the new Hezbollah and has run this losing play again and again and again.
My SWAG – drag the US forces on the ground (via Epstein blackmail – Rubio – Israel is going in, so we have to) into Lebanon, and once the US marines are blooded, the US will flood troops into Israel proper to reinforce Israel proper. Israel is desperate.
Meanwhile, the US escalation is a vaporware “coalition of the willing” to open the straits.
A possibility that occured to me is that if Israel is no longer sure the desal plants are secure they’re probably desperate for the Litani.
Israel cannot control their supply line – much less water from the Litani without US boots on the ground and Israel has never been weaker.
The US doesn’t have the boots to put on the ground.
Every single time i see things like this I ask “with what!?”
Even if 5 divisions materialize, how does the US transport them to theater and form them up in a modern 100% surveillance/targeting combat environment? The US hasn’t learned from Ukr-Rus yet, as far as I know, and even if we have I’m not sure if it matters. An expeditionary force requires equipment and training upon reaching theater and i can’t conceive how those can be dispersed to avoid getting immediately droned.
I agree and you agree, but Israel has other ideas, and if the zio-oligarchs push Trump, he will give the marching orders.
At that point, will the military soft coup or hard coup him? He will forget but the zio-oligarchs will not. And does Israel care how many US inadequately trained meat bags die? Nope. Do the zio-oligarchs care? Nope.
The numbers being mentioned are gigantic by contemporary standards–450k reservists to be called up in the latest report (the previous one had 100k). If they wind up being stuck in Lebanon for an extended period, can Israel even function as a normal state?
Charging Tucker Carlson under the Espionage act would be incredibly stupid, unless the aim is to incite the population.
Which it may well be, there are a lot of people in positions of power who would like to see either the Insurrection Act invoked or Martial Law imposed in order to keep the rabble in line.
I’m sure the resulting chaos would be easily controlled, these are, after all, the smartest people in the World.
Is it actually possible to invite the complacent American population?
Well, if we are that complacent and stupid, we deserve everything we get and more.
Systematically blocked: the duopoly chooses who we can vote for well before we vote, ensuring policy preservation regardless of electoral outcome.
Economically choked: the Neoliberal ratchet of ever increasing prices, ever higher profits, upward redistribution of wealth and growing homelessness (pour encourager les autres) keeps organization out of reach, stifling popular resistance.
Two of my grandmothers jokes come to mind, first, there was a farmer who every day fed his horse less and less: just when he had the horse living on nothing, it up and died. The second, there are three kinds of people: those who make thing happen; those who watch things happen; and those who say, “what happened?”
Since this is the Suez affair, albeit backwards with France and the UK saying, yeah no thanks~
It’s the Zeus affair, no?
p.s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeus
Seeing as we are doing this for the evangs, what a good fit!
Maximilian Zeus was a minor Batman villain who deluded himself that he’s the Olympian god. You wonder….
The Defense One link to the KC-135 didn’t work for me until I removed the last bit of the url (i.e. everything after the ?). Here’s the working link: https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2026/03/no-parachutes-kc-135-crew-who-crashed-iraq/412129/
Right. This applies to other sites as well.
Regarding Trump’s “demands” that other countries join his naval escort folly:
Didn’t Operations Prosperity Guardian and Rough Rider already demonstrate that the US and its allies couldn’t escort shipping past Anasarallah, nor prevent them from continuing to threaten shipping in the Red Sea? What makes them think they can do better against Iran in the Straits of Hormuz? 🤨
German foreign minister does not see role for NATO in Strait of Hormuz
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2026/03/16/german-foreign-minister-does-not-see-role-for-nato-in-strait-of-hormuz
Trump Demands Death Penalty for Reporters in Unhinged War Rant
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-demands-death-penalty-for-reporters-in-unhinged-war-rant/
Tale of the tape. Overnight futures market of WTI has went from $102 to $94 as I type this at 10:23 am.
In the category of “Supply chain grinding to a halt” you should probably mention sulfur and petroleum coke, byproducts of refineries. Asphalt too, come to think of it.
Expect more unrepaired potholes in the roads?
Israel says they expect about 3 more weeks of war with Iran.
Mr Market is breathing a sigh of relief: stocks up, oil down.
But there’s no reason to expect that Iran will relinquish control of the Straits when the shooting stops. Not until USA has been expelled from the Gulf. Is such a set-back is now a nothing-burger? Or the market is irrational?
My answer: it shows continued narrative control by USA-Israel.
Major repricing (panic) when Mr. Market comes to his senses?
Someone on a podcast (I think it was Larry Johnson, but I’m not sure) pointed out that it was odd that it was odd that a plane (KC135R) with normal crew of 3 or 4 should have twice as many people onboard when it went down. Could the aviation/air force people opine on this? Thanks!
For very long duration missions (12+ hours in this case) you could expect extra crew onboard so pilots can work in shifts, just as is done for long haul civilian flights.
This is touched on in blancolirio’s video discussing this flight, after the 6 minute mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elkutLRwKug
The speaker is a former USAF pilot with tanker experience, experience as a military pilot instructor, and as an accident investigator, and is currently a civilian 777 pilot.
I didn’t look at the obituaries, so this evidence-free guess can be easily to disprove—-2 crews with that particular airplane staying in the air as long as possible, given the threat of destruction during a random air raid on the ground.
One hypothesis is that one KC-135 was refueling the other during the incident. Then throw in pilot error (it happens) and/or a SAM threat that caused a pilot error, resulting in the mid-air collision.
Alas, we won’t know until well after the war. And from a commentariat POV, (IMO) it’s a rather in-the-weeds detail given the swirling macro-economic issues. Just saying
FYI – these KC-135s are note equipped for refueling.
Subtypes of kc135’s seem a bit confusing since it appears that the 135r designation was, apparently, recycled. Wiki makes it sound like the electronic recon version of 135r is of 60s vintage while the current 135r are 135a with newer engines. The crew roles in the obituaries seem to indicate a tanker. Could anyone provide further enlightenment?
one of the videos (blancolirio?) siad there are a very small number of KC-135’s which can themselves be refueled amd neither of the involved was of that type. Question: why not just install some pipe and pumps so the plane can refuel itself?
I am told by a reliable source that because it was the first mission in the area for the crew flying the plane, it is SOP for another pilot and boom operator who had previously made the trip to accompany them. This would bring the crew to 5. The additional crew member was another pilot who was a crew mate of the additional pilot and boom operator who volunteered to go on the mission bringing the total to 6.
Either THAAD doesn’t work, as Postol and Martyanov claim, in which case its degreeston doesn’t matter, or its degradation is a game changer for Iran allowing them greater freedom of action.
I get that what Iran has done to THAAD is powerfully symbolic but idk if it’s a big deal for Iran or a nice to have.
From the standpoint of interception, you may be correct. But there is also the element of detection and warning — as in how much time do the Israeli’s have to get to shelters?
FYI – launches are immediately detected from orbit thanks to the thermal plume. The on-orbit detections aren’t accurate enough for interception targeting, but they’ll give you enough for warning, just maybe not tight enough to limit the warning to a particular city or town. Now whether or not the data from the orbital assets are provided to the civil defense is another story.
Australia rejects naval role in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tanker threats
Australia has ruled out sending naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz, despite US calls for allies to help protect oil tankers from Iranian attacks.
https://thenightly.com.au/world/middle-east/catherine-king-matt-thistlethwaite-australia-rejects-naval-role-in-strait-of-hormuz-amid-iran-tanker-threats-c-21955744
UK not obliged to support every demand of ‘transactional’ US president, minister says
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/16/uk-not-obliged-to-support-every-transactional-demand-trump-us-minister-says
Japan Defense Minister Says No Plans to Send Ships to Hormuz
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-16/japan-defense-minister-says-no-plans-to-send-ships-to-hormuz
Non paywalled reprint of Crooke from last week. He says the Iran war plan was devised long ago as a direct response to 2003 shock and awe.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/03/16/is-having-no-war-plan-trumps-plan/
This we know. A bit more in the weeds is the following insight re Trump.
In an era of “unscripted television” where “reality shows” consist of improvising performers followed around by unseen cameras we now have an unscripted presidency. Someone (the voters?) please please kick him off the island.
@Carolinian at 10:45am
Interesting take by Michael Wolff. It would explain the absurdity of so many of Trump’s statements. One that comes to mind is the stated total obliteration of military installations on Kharg Island by the heaviest bombing raid ever seen in the Middle East. Turns out that all that happened according to Daniel Davis was that two holes were made on a runway and several shrubs in an empty field and maybe a building were blown up.
Yes. Or dump more mashed potatoes on his vacuous head.
I sense a market opportunity.
“Mr. Potato Prez”
Greece will not engage in military operations at Hormuz Strait, says government official
https://www.reuters.com/world/greece-will-not-engage-military-operations-hormuz-strait-says-government-2026-03-16/
Frantic Trump Melts Down at Allies Refusing to Join His War
https://www.thedailybeast.com/frantic-donald-trump-melts-down-at-allies-refusing-to-join-his-war-on-iran/
U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, says Bessent
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz. “We’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” Bessent said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/us-is-allowing-iranian-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-says-bessent.html
Re: the “hands off” approach to flows of oil originating in Iran, this kind of shows who has the whip hand.
Re Bessent… WAT?
It could only make sense as cope but, seriously? Either you can’t stop those ships or the economic problem is even more acute than even NC thinks.
Problems like this example maybe?
https://dnyuz.com/2026/03/16/the-war-is-making-it-harder-to-keep-the-lights-on-2000-miles-away/
“…About half of Bangladesh’s electricity comes from power-generation facilities that burn gas. Nearly a third of that gas comes from Qatar, and the warfare in the gulf has all but blocked its flow…”
“…Mohiuddin Rubel, the former director of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association who runs several factories of his own, blamed the country’s penchant for single-mindedness for its vulnerability.
“Bangladeshis are very good at doing one thing, like ready-made garments,” he said…
Bessent and his ilk may think of so many others as peasants, but they probably don’t want to see naked peasants wandering around
Something is off there considering the treatment given to Venezuelan tankers. Why not board the ship and commandeer the oil like they did earlier? Sounds like they are scared of something.
China is my guess. China might turn a blind eye to US shenanigans in the Caribbean but trying it in the Indian Ocean is an entirely different matter.
Trump must be devastated. This is the first international escort service that’s turned him down…
Ouch!
PM Takaichi is supposed to meet with Trump on Thursday this week.
Japan has apparently nixed the idea of sending minesweepers to Hormuz, but will Takaichi offer some other form of military support in exchange for promises of LNG to weather the incoming market volatility?
There have been quite a few anti-war street demos in Japan, with a lot of angry ppl venting.
Shii Kazuo, longtime leader of the JCP, has published another op-ed against Japanese support for the war on Iran, pointing out (rightly) that by allowing US bases in Okinawa, Sasebo, Yokosuka, Atsugi, et al, to launch aircraft and ships, Japan becomes party to an illegal war and could not complain “even if retaliatory missiles come flying in”.
Shii has been against the US bases in Japan for many years, and is calling on the public to speak out and reject not only the war but the U.S. military in the archipelago.
https://x.com/shiikazuo/status/2032980088699117650
I’m not optimistic about this maximalist position, but perhaps more people will see what’s happening to the Gulf States and begin to connect the dots that hosting US bases only reduces safety and security.
Trump says he’s not ready to declare victory in Iran
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5785853-donald-trump-not-ready-declare-victory-iran/
Translation: not ready to admit defeat. lol
Donald Trump on what appears to be airforce one said to reporters the US has plenty of oil and so perhaps ‘we shouldn’t be there’ (Iran).
Holy crap. I am curious what the families of dead and injured US servicemen would think.
Mentioned in comments a couple days ago, all US minesweepers are decommissioned, and the replacement is the SwissArmyKnife boat “LCS” Littoral Combat Ships … which have made a charge in the reverse direction i.e. “Strategic Redeployment”, and were caught on camera (oopsie!)
The War Zone … note only 3 LCS were in theater to begin with … oopsie!
those decommissioned minesweepers were old and functionally suited for the 1980’s Tanker War-style scenario; not the current complete area denial by the Iranians.
and those LCS are another story—-as a case study of the complete degeneration of the Pentagon procurement process
Also mines aren’t the issue; speedboats, UUAVS as well as missiles and Shaheds are.
The mine thing seems like a red herring; it’s only relevant if Iran has run out / been denuded of the good stuff. Probably makes sense in Western gov/media brain if they believe their own propaganda.
To know more about the LCSs, I invite you to put the following search term into Google and see what comes back-
LCS ship damage
I accepted your invitation and oh boy….
The Littoral Combat Ship Might Be the Navy’s Biggest Mistake Ever (National Security Journal)
Re. The Islander tweet on the US frantically shifting air defense components to support the current war.
This post takes it as a given that air defense missiles like Patriot and THAAD are actually effective at their given task of shooting down incoming missiles.
This whole subject is actually very controversial and has been since the technology got started back in the late 20th century. Many researchers, whose voices have obviously been downplayed, believe that 95% or so of incoming missiles will make it through pretty much any anti-missile system just because of the physics of the technology and the inherent difficulties of trying to hit quickly moving, very maneuverable enemy missiles.
Recent technological improvements in attacking missile systems have made the situation worse, not better. Offensive missiles that can travel many times the speed of sound and can change course during flight have made them almost impossible for the defending system to hit. And of course, there continues to be a huge financial asymmetry, since one must fire several anti-missiles at each incoming missile, and since the defending missiles must travel much more quickly (3x?) than the incoming missile to fulfill their assigned interception role. The cost imbalance has obviously gotten much worse with the emergence of very low cost drones and missiles, as well as deliberately cheap decoy missiles, which force the defender to waste hugely expensive (and slow to manufacture) defensive missiles.
Iran has obviously pursued a winning strategy by building up huge quantities of offensive missiles and storing them deep underground against what it wisely perceived as an eventual, inevitable war.
Malaysia Becomes First Country To Declare US Trade Deal ‘Null And Void’ After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/26/03/51261927/malaysia-becomes-first-country-to-declare-us-trade-deal-null-and-void-after-supreme-court-tariff-ruling
Hmm, perhaps this is why the Littoral Combat Ships are now visiting….. :-)
Iran now demanding that Gulf States declare their allegiance (from Aljazeera Live Blog):
Related: today a Pakistani tanker (from Qatar) sailed unmolested through the straits and then Araigchi on twitter praised Pakistan for being a good and steadfast friend to Iran.
A demonstration: “See, this could be you!”
There has long been this dance between the Gulf States and Iran. The gulf states have feared that the Islamic Revolution might be contagious, they were happy to undermine/contain Iran. Iran responded by supporting the Palestinians, pointing out the Gulf States’ hypocrisy–publicly posturing support for Palestinians while cozying up to Israel on the sly. Meanwhile Iran supported grass roots opposition to Israel and the Sunni Gulf States in the form of Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Now Iran has made the choice stark. The Gulf States must decide whose side are they on. Israel and the US? Or the resistance? If they make the wrong choice, they will face the wrath not only of Iran, but possibly also of their own populations, who have enormous sympathy for the resistance.
Re; Bibi/BibAi/zio-kremlinology
A more interesting question to me is:
Does it seem like Netanyahu is still in control in Israel?
I think the answer is no.
It could be that he is sick.
It could be that he was injured and is recovering gradually (he’s more mobile in the new video today).
It could be (and I’m tempted by this option) that he has been ousted due to [incompetence/ madness/ making decisions for himself not Israel]. You can’t have someone that irrational in charge when you’re fighting an existential war.
Regardless, there are zero signs of him being an active war leader/commander. There are zero signs of the Israeli war cabinet trying to make it look like Bibi is in charge beyond “statements from Netanyahu’s office” type stuff. It would be easy to put out thunderous statements under his name. It would be easy to have him do more than drink coffee and flirt with obvious spooks-pretending-to-be-everyday-Israelis in the second video. Why?
—-
Another curiousity is described Alastair Crooke near the beginning of his Judge Nap interview today talking about a very curious shift in the Israeli media in the last few days. He attached a lot of significance to it.
From 15:00
(Machine-transcript)
I would say we’re at a turning point and I don’t mean a military turning point in in that way I mean something is changing psychologically and first of all something is happening in Israel. I don’t know what it is exactly but as you know we scour the um you know the Israeli press and what people are saying on their on on telegram and other means and you know suddenly it’s changed the language has gone away from this bragio of saying you know everything is fine we’re winning we’re and suddenly you get senior commanders senior military people saying we have to bring it to an end no It’s got to to happen. It I can’t tell you what it is, but it seems almost as if something strategic has shifted in uh Israel. And today, again, even this morning’s Hebrew press. You know, there are articles on, you know, banalities on the intricacies between the parties, not even major parties. No mention of the war, no mention of where things are going. It’s uncanny. And often this happens in Israel. Suddenly there is a a change of opinion, a change of sentiment. Uh and you can see it even if you don’t know what it means.
—-
Finally a tangential theory from @ripplebrain on twitter in response to a video of Robert Kagan and Bill Kristol criticizing the Israeli relationship.
I’ve been speculating for years that when the time is right they’ll burn Netanyahu, use him as a scapegoat for all of Israel’s crimes, then introduce a “moderate” “liberal” to replace him
—-
Either leading Trump into this mess, or bombing the Tehran oil stuff when specifically told not to might be enough to make the Americans (the real ones not Trump) say “Bibi’s gotta go”.
—-
So my half-assed thesis is that Bibi has been sidelined/removed and we are in a post-Bibi world. Which may be marginally less awful. It’s not like Naftali Bennett or the heads of the military are NOT insane genocidal sociopaths. But maybe slightly more rational, and less likely to start wars to avoid corruption trials.
—–
[US spooks seeing Bibi get ousted, then looking at Trump and getting ideas?]
Rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Who cares if Bibi goes? Fire the butcher but it’s the same butcher shop. Hate my remark? Gaza.
In other words, Israel could very well have been decapitated, for largely the purpose of putting everything on Netanyahu (incidentally, AJP Taylor described much of WW2 historiography as this, something that he said makes understandinb the real cause of WW2 difficult–he didn’t subscribe to the great evil man tgeory of history.)
I don’t know if it’ll “work” vis a vis Iran or any other country outside the West, but it certainly does feel like something that Trumpy sort would have come up with.
In the yarn diagram in my brain, the impetus comes mainly from the Israeli side.
I think things like this happen when enough stakeholders agree “he’s gotta go”.
Thank you BP. Whether your speculations are right or not they are informed speculations and very interesting to read.
Re; Bibi/BibAi/zio-kremlinology
A new branch of geopolitical inquiry
Zionology
I #PleadThe25th.
Notice how Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi resembles Anan in the 1967 Star Trek episode, A Taste of Armageddon?
Star Trek – We Don’t Make War With Computers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_XPgrdX7gk
That same actor played Menachem Begin twice: “Raid on Entebbe” and a fictionalized Begin in “Exodus.”
https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0649055/
@Wukchumni at 12:14pm
OMIGOD!! So what happened to the Captain?
And yes, Araghchi does look like Anan.
Maybe Araghchi is Anan, a man from the future who knows the outcome of the current nightmarish situation… (I’m a sci fi fan, especially about time travel)
Captain Kirk went on to live in syndication, surviving the episode. Live long and props, sir.
‘I’ll knock the hell out of it.’ Trump warns U.S. could attack Kharg Island again in call with PBS News
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-threatens-to-knock-the-hell-out-of-kharg-island-in-impromptu-phone-call-with-pbs-news
Israel eases war emergency restrictions for some regions
https://www.jns.org/israel-eases-war-emergency-restrictions-for-some-regions/
drop site update- another report that trump is looking for a way out… first time posting, so I hope this works.
https://open.substack.com/pub/dropsitenews/p/iran-war-trump-witkoff-araghchi?r=neir9&utm_medium=ios
Trump Press Conference Live Stream
Seems relatively together. Nothing new being said as far as I can tell. Complaining about NATO allies; repeating claims about decimating and obliterating stuff; some ramblings etc.
As much as I respect Janta Ka’s videos and his refreshingly honest opinions, I’d like to point out that using AI chatbots as easily accessible experts for the layman is fraught with danger (see also Larry Johnson’s recent piece on Game Theory). They are not. LLMS ARE MACHINES THAT ELOQUENTLY REGURGITATE THE CONSENSUS HIDDEN IN THEIR TRAINING DATA. The are per definitionem biased, have no concept of objectivity and occasionally invent details (like the “six-finger” hallucinations). With their trillions of parameters the models are not only computationally opaque, their training data is as well, something that isn’t taken into account often enough. One could say that LLMs are the ultimate representation of mainstream media.
Whether the Netanyahu video is real I can not say. But using common sense, a sharp eye, background knowledge and instinct (the feel, if your want) has, I think, a higher chance of judging whether a video is true or fake, than asking a machine that has been effectively trained to produce impressions that appear convincing.
Thank you. We should not trust anything said by these clankers unless we know exactly what they’ve been trained on and exactly how they process the info. And since even the developers don’t seem to know what goes on inside the black box, we should not trust them, full stop.
A commenter asked a few days ago what the difference is between an LLM pronouncement and trusting the opinion of largely anonymous commenters here when one is not an expert on a given topic. I think there is a tremendous difference. The clanker is but one opinion and it “speaks” with great confidence based on pattern recognition and no actual knowledge. Here we get the opinions of hundreds or thousands of commenters, some of them who are experts in a given topic, and if anyone does make a mistake, another person almost always comes in with a correction, usually quite quickly.
Buddy told me yesterday he’d wait for the experts to determine if the BB coffee shop video was AI or not, but I said that if you’ve ever drunk liquid from a cup, it should be fairly easy to figure it out on your own, at least in that case.
No need to go willingly into the Matrix.
Rage against the dying of the light.
I was that commenter. Notice that I was asking about the difference between an LLM output and the reply of a single person here. I wasn’t contrasting the LLM output with the ensemble of the commentariat. I was treating each as a singular morsel of information. Of course the emerging picture of a comment section, to which I hope to apply my own thought to decide what is internally consistent and what isn’t, is more likely to give me a reliable picture of reality.
My point being that it’s isn’t problematic a priori to treat an LLM output as another piece of information to use. Especially if one uses epistemic humility and sceptical detachment to treat the data, and recognises that if you exercise doubt and question the output, you can end up learning something new about something you have a scarce background on and wouldn’t even know what questions to ask.
I can give an example. I’m curious about economics. Not enough to start a serious study on it. Basically, web essays by some people I’ve grown to trust over the years, Wikipedia, a book here and there and long interactions with an LLM. One of the latter told me about the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu Theorem and the Cambridge Controversy. I checked the info in Wikipedia and it looked correct to the best of my understanding. I’ll be forever thankful because my chances of ever learning about those just by random sampling were vanishingly small, and given their importance, I feel I learned something huge.
My feeling is that to interact properly with an LLM you have to be more careful with reading, and more guarded. So in a sense, it’s a good exercise in critical thinking. Of course, many people just regurgitate the output as if it’s authoritative. I like to think I don’t count among that number.
My grievances with AI notwithstanding, I confess to feeling similarly.
That said, I am disgusted whenever someone uses AI to make their arguments (in any setting).
In my opinion, if someone isn’t confident enough to contribute to a topic based on their current knowledge, it is entirely unhelpful for them to add AI output to make a point. Conversely, if you are knowledgable in a particular area, it should preclude the need for a hallucinating assistant to aid you.
As a non-expert observer, though, a convincing AI output would not immediately be distinguishable from genuine, human comments, however, that is in no way an excuse to use it.
Regardless, I have experienced success with finding particularly esoteric information via AI, when my own searches fail. What I then do, though, is use the sources I get from that search for all future research on that topic. I have to admit, I likely would have discovered many personally helpful websites if not for this (at least not as many, in my available spare time).
I suspect AI has been designed to NOT out AI.
I don’t have the link anymore, but there was a somewhat informal study posted in the Links in the past couple of months where various Gen AI detection platforms were tested. From what I recall they were not accurate if even the most basic of manual editing was done, and weren’t all that accurate when presented with an untouched generated image.
I expect it’s around the same, or worse with video but I haven’t seen any discussion about it and don’t use image/video generation myself so I can’t test.
This?
https://www.notebookcheck.net/The-Nano-Banana-Pro-experiment-AI-detection-tools-prove-useless.1201789.0.html
Yes, that was it. Thanks!
I doubt very much Janta Ka used a chatbot to inspect the video, but an AI trained to tell the difference between genuine video and a generated video – such tools (Generative Adversarial Network in the industry jargon, from 2014) are an elementary part of unsupervised training of generative AI.
LLMs are just a subset of Machine Learning which is a subset of Artificial Intelligence.
I will steal this! Bang on.
Per TASS:
IRGC warns of imminent strikes on US enterprises in Middle East — agency
“We are warning the defeated US regime to evacuate all American businesses in the region.” …
It said the strikes may be carried out in the coming hours.
Iran’s new supreme leader issues his 1st statement, but his absence raises questions about his health
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-supreme-leader-health-9.7126597
Bessent says Treasury is not intervening in oil commodities markets and has no authority to do so
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/bessent-says-treasury-is-not-intervening-in-oil-commodities-markets-and-has-no-authority-to-do-so.html
US ‘fine’ with some ships getting through Strait of Hormuz, Bessent says
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-fine-with-some-ships-getting-through-strait-hormuz-bessent-says-2026-03-16/
‘Like Gaza’: Israel said planning ‘massive’ south Lebanon ground invasion to uproot Hezbollah
After terror group’s huge rocket assault on Wednesday night, officials say Israel wants to seize entire area south of Litani River; Ron Dermer said tasked with talks with Beirut
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-planning-massive-ground-invasion-of-southern-lebanon-to-uproot-hezbollah/
U.S. Considers Withholding H.I.V. Aid Unless Zambia Expands Minerals Access
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/health/zambia-hiv-aid-minerals-trump.html
What happens if Zambia asks the Chinese for HIV aid? After all, they produce much of the drugs that go to America. And while there, they might ask the Chinese for help with their mineral sector.
Does anyone with market insight have thoughts on:
1. How many of the current bulls (S&P, DJIA going up today) are retail investors? Are we seeing the result of information-silo deluded masses?
2. Is it possible that Zionist billionaires are manipulating markets to keep pressure off of Trump, since it’s a metric he really cares about?
I am amazed that markets aren’t crashing/internalizing the economic wreckage freight train of Hormuz closure and am trying to understand why. (I don’t play the ponies myself outside my IRAs, and those are all passive, index-y investments so I’m not asking for investment advice. I’m just baffled that things are going up today.
A not-entirely-tongue-in-cheek hypothesis: perhaps investors are taking a longer view, in the sense that “this war is bad for the economy, but even worse for DJT’s ability to wield power, and over the longer term, weakening DJT’s power will be good for the economy.”
Bad economic news –> bad GOP performance in mid-terms –> DJT can’t govern –> good economic news.
Passive flows into index funds from IRAs and 401ks, investment managers and advisers that have to invest in equities, plus years of “buy the dip” working.
On CNBC if you listen carefully, people with oil market expertise are saying this will be transitory assuming the straits reopen quickly, and they are certain it will fast, but if they stay closed for more than a fews weeks it is impossible to predict, beyond it will be bad.
Netanyahu’s Video Proof Of Being Alive Hits A “Disappearing” Ring Problem
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-israel-war-live-updates-netanyahus-disappearing-ring-in-new-video-sparks-fresh-ai-debate-11224783?pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll
Casual observation… In Western media referencing most (all?) of the bombings in Iran I’m seeing the phrasing (narrative assignment) as Israel bombing campaigns, not US. Given the size of Israel air force and munitions stocks compared to the US, and the involvement of B-52 and B-1 bombers from GCC bases (Saudi Arabia, etc), I find it unlikely that Israel is conducting all or even most of the bombing campaigns Iran. So the narrative that only Israel is bombing Iran seems absurd, and yet the phrasing/assignment seems consistent.
So:
1) Have other people noticing this as well? (It might just be me…)
2) Is this is deliberate, and if so do you think is is being done for Western audiences in general or specifically for US audiences?
No US aircraft is operating from GCC “bases.” They don’t exist any more. Most likely, they are operating from Europe and/or Diego Garcia. In fact, someone on Twitter (ArmchairWarlord, I think–I can’t find it now since I don’t have a twitter acct and I can only follow links from elsewhere.) showed flight paths of B1s, operating from UK, that were avoiding not only Iranian airspace, but also the Iraqi (apparently lobbing their missiles from Kuwaiti airspace.) The same tweet also indicated that B2s are operating from CONUS.
In fact, the paucity of bases would suggest that either we are no longer operating smaller aircraft or that they need to be refueled multiple times en route. That’s gotta 1) keep the sortie generation low 2) gotta be imposing enormous strain on both planes and crew, not just bombers, but also refuelers and, presumably, AWACS, since most of the ground based radars are gone. This sounds almost like Luftwaffe’s Stalingrad operation: the frantic attempts to use airpower to keep the 6th Army supplied and provide air support in face of appalling conditions broke the Luftwaffe.
@ACF at 2:17 pm
1-It has been pointed out somewhere that people active in the financial markets only get their news from mainstream media so to them the war is going well for the US/Israel and will be over in 3 weeks. If true they see the war as a passing event having only temporary effects.
2- Manipulation, who knows?, but if things get bad the Fed could buy S&P futures to support financial markets. Wouldn’t need to do much buying since it would be a signal that a floor was being established at some level by an actor with infinitely deep pockets.
But 3- physical reality, ie limits on real things, eg oil and natural gas, cannot be overcome by financial manipulation. Perhaps the limits can be hidden for a bit but not for very long.
Perhaps those with more understanding than I could explain how/if prices could be kept low for a while despite shortages.
re #3: I think that prices can be kept within limits the governing powers want through explicit rationing systems (as opposed to the “ability to pay” rationing system that normally operates when supply shortfalls drive up prices in the face of strong demand).
Given the complex and economy-wide problems that have been predicted to arise, one could in principle imagine muscular interventions along the lines of US WWII economic management. (OTOH, the economy is a lot more complex than it was then)
Perhaps it’s nothing, but perhaps the recent action under the Defense Production Act is a foretaste of future interventions in “the market”.
It will take a while for the reduced flow rate of oil and downstream products to manifest itself. Then there is all the floating oil, Russian oil and storage releases to factor in. Denial will be impossible after about 100 days, until then they will continue to play the markets. Someone is setting up a computer program monitoring tanker movements around the world in real time so expect plenty of AIS fakery going forward to obsfucate the real flows to importing nations dropping off. People will get their Easter holidays before reality intrudes.
US is once again extending the service life of the Nimitz for one year, this is unplanned since the air wing already left, this tells you how well the carrier situation is going.
Thanks.
Re 1, I just don’t know if actively trading retail investors controlled a sufficient amount of money in the market to drive the S&P, DJIA, etc. I know they can drive individual stock prices, see GameStop. Do you know?
That’s interesting re S&P futures, thanks.
Re 2,. I don’t know how plausible it is that a billionaire/group of billionaires could manipulate the S&P, DJIA, etc. I have the impression that it’s much easier for a small group to corner a commodity market. Do you have any sense of how plausible it is a group of oligarchs could control the major stock indexes?
@ACF at 4:32 pm
I doubt retail investors control enough money to drive the S&P in a direction that is not based on expected future returns – that is to rig the stock market.
The thing with S&P futures is that they are highly leveraged, something like 20 to 1, so 1 billion controls 20 billion. If you want to support the S&P you could put up a relatively limited amount of money to do it. However that works both ways. If the trade goes against you you could lose your shirt even if you’re very wealthy.
Cornering a commodity market: In the 1970s the Hunt brothers tried to corner the world silver market. It worked until silver began to pour out of India where ownership of silver was a marker of wealth for many people – dishes, trays, candlesticks, all kinds of stuff. Because of local demand the price of silver in India was higher than everywhere else – until the Hunt brothers began buying. They weren’t able to buy all the silver in India as it flooded out. The price dropped and I think they lost their fortune. You could check that on Wikipedia.
Keith Newman: …people active in the financial markets only get their news from mainstream media so to them the war is going well for the US/Israel and will be over in 3 weeks.
Not how the City of London necessarily works. Consider Hakluyt & Co., forex, and it’s not the only outfit of its kind. —
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hakluyt_%26_Company
‘Hakluyt & Company is a British strategic advisory firm … headquartered in London. Hakluyt was founded in 1995 by former officials of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6). The company has recruited several former British spies and journalists from The Financial Times….
‘Hakluyt has established a network of operatives throughout the world who provide it with intelligence on commercial or political issues of interest to its clients. Operatives … include embassy staff, former spies, reporters, and well connected government and corporate people…
‘Hakluyt has strong links with the British intelligence service SIS (MI6) . The Evening Standard wrote in 2012 that “Spies preparing for retirement are approached discreetly in St James’s clubs and asked if they would like some lucrative freelance action to top up their pensions”. ‘Hakluyt refused to comment when asked whether former employees of MI6 were required to cut ties with the intelligence agency when recruited to work at Hakluyt…..’
Me: Well, maybe they wrote their Wiki for PR. But on the other hand, forex —
‘In 2012, one of Hakluyt’s operatives, Neil Heywood, was found dead in his Chongqing hotel room. Heywood had been close to the local Communist party representative, Bo Xilai, and his wife Gu Kailai. The event became an international incident which included the involvement of then-UK prime minister David Cameron. Gu was in due course convicted of murder and sentenced to death; her sentence was later commuted to 15 years imprisonment.’
And so on. And there are other outfits like it, as I say.
A video has been posted on X showing Bibi’s coffee shop visit, including what was said, but with the new supreme leader of Iran replacing Bibi.
George Galloway on his MOAT channel advised Tucker Carlson to immediately announce he is a candidate for president.
Re a move to arrest Carlson: I look at this in the context of the split with MGT and the expulsion of the anti-zionist Roman Catholic voice from Trump’s religious liberty commission. Trump is sacrificing his coalition to the point only zionists will remain.
His support won’t drop much below 30% unless a lot of body bags start coming home. It’s a cult of Trump, not maga. My brother is one, and he’s too invested to believe anything but Trump. Sad.
Yes, there is a Trump cult. Plenty of non-cult members voted for him in the general, the cult is tops half his support in the general, much more than that in the primaries. Which is why R Congress members from safe seats (huge percentage of seats, because gerrymandering) don’t stand up to him.
Anyone who truly believes Trump won 2020 is a member. Many are supremacists of one sort or another; White supremacists, religious supremacists, misogynistic patriarchists, you name it. The cult follows him no matter what, no matter where. Leaving a cult is really hard.
Do you have a link to the video? I can’t find it anywhere
Footage shows a fire burning near Dubai International Airport after a drone ignited a fuel tank, according to authorities in the UAE.
Flights have been suspended. Civil defence crews say the blaze is under control.
https://x.com/AJENews/status/2033370602476593517
Mojtaba Khamenei escaped death by seconds, leaked audio reveals
Exclusive: Iran’s new supreme leader went out into garden moments before missiles hit his home and killed father
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/16/exclusive-mojtaba-khamenei-escaped-death-leaked-audio/
Trump’s AI czar calls for U.S. to ‘get out’ of war and warns Iran has a ‘dead man’s switch’ that could render Gulf states almost uninhabitable
https://fortune.com/2026/03/14/trump-ai-czar-david-sacks-us-iran-war-gulf-israel-desalination-water-uninhabitable/
Trump is presented with options to end the war in Iran, sources say. He hasn’t taken any so far.
The off-ramps are a standard part of war planning, which also includes possibilities for escalation if the White House decides to increase the pressure on Iran, sources tell NBC News.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-presented-daily-options-end-war-iran-hasnt-taken-far-rcna263399
Terrible to be Susan Wiles’s oncologist, everyone in the world trying to hack you to find out if she really has cancer, and if so how bad it is, or is she bailing.
One possible “Off Ramp” I have not seen mentioned would be to Nuke Tel Aviv.
Trump has betrayed anyone he had a chance to throughout his career, why not the Zionists?
Nuking Tel Aviv? I don’t think so. It would kill more Palestinians and Arabs than Jews. That’s not part of the Shi’a playbook.
I’m convinced that another reason that Iran never developed a nuke is that they can nuke Dimona and cause a Chernobyl event (which would also kill more Palestinians and Arabs than Jews.)
https://www.twz.com/sea/u-s-navy-minesweepers-assigned-to-middle-east-have-been-moved-to-pacific
Littoral Combat Ships, aka ‘Little Crappy Ships’, which were supposed to replace recently decommissioned purpose-built “Avenger Class mine hunters” (aka mine sweepers), have never been fully tested for that role, and two of the three that were in the Gulf region have left for Malaysia.
Also, a commenter questioned how Iranian leaders could have accumulated great personal wealth and have offshore bank accounts and real estate. Yanis Varoufakis told Glenn Diesen in March 14 video that Iranian leaders had gone full neo-liberal while imposing austerity of populace during past decades:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxMrNecpBjM
Let’s see:
– centrally planned economy with large public sector, they actually have five year plans!
– public health care insurance and
– Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation to insure those not eligible for above and reduce poverty in general
– labor law making laying off people very difficult, disputes often settled for the employee
– autarky instead of globalization
Sounds very much not neo-liberal to me. Is Yanis trying to rationalize leftist opposition to the mullahs, or what?
Yanis has a number of European standard issue blindspots – whether he believes them or is playing to his base – I do not know. For example, he thinks Russia had other options than the SMO, even after NATO caused the death of 14000 Russians. Would he have remained so silent if it was Turkey massacring Greeks? I doubt it. He repeated the obviously bogus number of killed in the “protests” even though it was clear they were subversion by the US/Israel with most of the confirmed dead policemen. For a while I think he was repeating the BS about women’s rights in Afghanistan (when it looked like the US might win) while condemning the war. I have noted similar ill-informed opinions on China. Fortunately (or unfortunately), no one outside the margins of European power listens to him and he does not seem to have well-placed sources as far as I can tell.
He is awesome on economics is a great speaker and a pleasure to listen to until he starts opining on geopolitics. . . Often I tune out then or turn off.
Is the existence of offshore accounts an accepted fact? This question in good faith.
The UK has sanctioned an Iranian (quasi?-)billionaire in London for being, in their allegations, the Islamic Republic’s sanctions-busting banker.
The properties that are being talked about are in his ownership. Their beneficial ownership by key Iranian figures is currently unsupported by public evidence.
Thank you.
See also:
https://nitter.poast.org/iwasnevrhere_/status/2033709906528719205#m
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, Iran’s Chief Justice, stated that the assets of individuals collaborating with the invading enemy, inside or outside the country, can be confiscated under Iranian law and that legal proceedings against such figures should be expedited and publicly announced.
Found this on X
Daractenus
@Daractenus
·
6h
You can fairly accurately track Donald Trump’s mental decline by the increasing length of his posts. This is the point we are now at: [insert two page screed by DT on Powell/cost over runs at FR reno]
DT does not mention all the people he stiffed to keep cost down ….
From the FT, interesting if true. Likely is, because it makes sense given that, not least, it’s Chinese and Indian supertankers that the US are letting through because there not mad enough to try stopping those countries’ ships at sea right now and risk war with them, too. If so, Bessent’s statement (see below) is dressing up that reality in a large amount of ‘cope’ —
Iran earns oil windfall as US turns blind eye: Treasury secretary Scott Bessent says White House is prepared to tolerate the trade to avoid supply shortages
https://archive.ph/oLqHf
https://www.ft.com/content/35e815ef-46f3-4169-a39d-cc6bafdfbc1c
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said Washington was prepared to tolerate the Iranian sales, despite existing US sanctions. “The Iranian ships have been getting out already and we have let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” he told CNBC.
Iran was also increasingly allowing Indian and potentially Chinese ships to pass through the Strait. “We think that there will be a natural opening that the Iranians are letting out and for now we are fine with that. We want the world to be well supplied,” Bessent added.
Trump says U.S. asked China to delay Xi meeting ‘a month or so’ due to Iran war
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/16/trump-china-iran-xi-war-trade.html
Trump says he thinks he will have the ‘honor’ of taking Cuba
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-he-thinks-he-will-have-honor-taking-cuba-2026-03-16/
Trump says Israel won’t use a nuclear weapon in Iran
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5786393-israel-iran-nuclear-risk/amp/
Wait, wait, wait. Do my eyes deceive me? Any sitting president so far would’ve waffled that “Israel is not confirmed to have nuclear weapons” or some such nonsense. Strategic ambiguity and all that, even though the whole world knows. Only past presidents like Carter would be candid about it. Trump has basically thrown that out of the window with that assertion. Never thought I’d see the day, despite how stupid it is at this point…
All this is clear as mud. Trump has an objective a feeling in his gut to conquer Iran on behalf of Netanyahu in order to dominate oil supply to Asia & beyond. The only problem is that he doesn’t have a strategic plan. His tactical plan is ineffective: 1) Reliance of air power alone; 2) reliance on decapitation of regime , 3) Reliance on a doctrine of ‘military necessity’ ( the use of terror, e.g the deliberate targeting of schools, etc), 4) Inability to understand Iran’s strategy and Iran’s capacity to effect counter offensives; 5) Inability to do proper threat assessment, e.g the closure of the Straits of Hormuz and its effect, the diminishment of the petro dollar and its effects, 6) Failure to provide a defence for outposts in West Asia, & the weak battle cry: is weak Viva Epstein. Iran on he other, seems to be acting o a well defined plan and with clear objectives: Survive and eject the US from West Asia. Their operational plan and tactics seems to have some teeth: 1) Effectively close the Straits of Hormuz for economic leverage, 3) Attack the US behind the front along multiple lines to destroy communication centers, supply lines, & command post in order to destabilise the opposition’s decision making process., 4) Divide he area of conflict into ‘cauldrons (Israel at the center of one and Bahrain more or less at the center of the other in order to apply progressive pressure on each, 5) Make US outposts un liveable, & 6) Target air logistic and naval logistic nodes. & 7 Adoptin ‘mosaic’ ‘active defense’ which might provide retaliation even in the event of a nuclear attack.
Some questions arise: 1) Why were the US military and intelligence services asleep at the switch, 2) Why is the the CIC unable to articulate his objectives and plan, 3) Exactly what leverage does Netanyahu have over the POTUS and if any why doesn’t Congress address this as this indicates a foreign power has command over the the POTUS.
One further note. On the cusp of a ground invasion, by what magical thinking does the US expect to prevail when so far it has shown is a total lack of awareness and planning.
Clearly Iran’s area denial strategy against US bases was never contemplated. Gonna be hard to win with this furthered lengthened supply lines.
Rubio orders US diplomats to push countries for swift action against Iran amid ‘elevated risk of attack’
https://abcnews.com/Politics/rubio-orders-us-diplomats-push-countries-swift-action/story?id=131127950
“… ‘elevated risk of attack’…” but from who?
Laura Gilinski, former Deputy Head of Planning & Strategy at Mossad, has been targeted by ransomware group Handala. It was announced on reddit but the post yanked by the mods. ParsToday reports, and with a link to 20 GB of her hacked data that Handala is making public:
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/197653
“Meanwhile, the situation in Israel”
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/197638
Fire on U.S. Aircraft Carrier Raged for Hours, Sailors Say
Own goal.
Sabotage?
How do these GCC strategists suggest how the US is not to “stop short”? Where is the invasion force? Where is the Navy? Anyone up for nukes?
Gulf states press US to neutralise Iran for good as Hormuz crisis deepens Reuters (use reader view around paywall)
These people are dumb. How do they think that’s gonna work. Their oil infrastructure is gonna be left standing? Why wouldn’t a losing Iran light the fuse on the way out?
Strait of Hormuz standoff puts supply of America’s generic drug prescriptions at risk (CNBC)
Shit gets deeper.
Thanks for sharing the article. I’ve been warning the supply folks at my hospital since this war started but nobody is taking it seriously. COVID redux.
If I’m reading Thomas Keith right, the green zone/US embassy is getting shelled in real time.
Pink Floyd, Dogs.
From Aljazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/16/hotel-in-iraqi-capital-baghdad-struck-as-attacks-on-us-embassy-intercepted
‘Breaking News
@TheNewsTrending
Footage shows the C-RAM air defense system at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad actively firing to intercept incoming projectiles amid tonight’s reported drone or rocket attack in the Iraqi capital.’
https://x.com/TheNewsTrending/status/2033678270873375003?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I would think not unconnected news coming out this morning:
Iran and Iraq discussing passage of oil tankers through strait of Hormuz (Guardian blog)
Iran and Iraq are holding talks about allowing transit of Iraq’s oil tankers through the strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani was quoted by the country’s state-run Iraqi news agency as having said.
“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the oil minister said.
The news agency said Iraq’s oil production has been reduced to 1.2m barrels daily, down from 4.3m barrels daily prior to the war. Iraq is also reported to be trying to restart exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey.
—
[I see other stories saying this is according to Al Jazeera. Can’t find an original source.]
—-
Iraq first. Maybe Qatar and Kuwait next?
The Iranian plan to peel away the Gulf states from the US is working?
(I realise Iraq is not like the other states)
Here is a possible Trump’s exit strategy:
convince Congress to declare war illegal and pull the forces out. Then he can rant for next 3 year about treason and deep state.
WaPo editorial with a different view to the WSJ, and seems more grounded in reality. FWIW the WSJ and WaPo editorials seem to closely echo the 2 sides of the debate happening in Israel.
How to solve the Hormuz crisis (WaPo editorial, not paywalled where I am)
Air supremacy is not the same as sea control. A better bet may be to declare victory and walk away.
President Donald Trump knew when he started the war against Iran that the country could respond by disrupting energy markets worldwide and closing the Strait of Hormuz. Now it’s on the United States to solve a problem that threatens the global economy.
Trump is angry at countries, friend and foe, for resisting his requests to help the U.S. pry open the global shipping lane being held hostage by the regime in Tehran. He has warned that “we will remember” and it could even be “very bad for the future of NATO.”
Trump says Iran’s navy, air force and air defenses are “gone” — yet the U.S. Navy describes the strait as an Iranian “kill box” that’s too dangerous for escorts. If Iran is “defeated,” why can’t the preeminent global superpower open a waterway that’s about 30 miles wide?
The U.S. owns the skies over Iran, and reconnaissance drones can easily loiter over the coastline around the clock. But air supremacy is not the same as sea control. Iran’s mobile anti-ship missiles are hidden in mountainous coastal terrain, designed to “shoot and scoot.” The cheap Shahed drones it uses can be built in workshops and are easy to launch from almost anywhere.
The Pentagon’s own assessment is that escorts won’t be feasible any time soon. And Iran doesn’t even need to hit a ship to keep the strait closed. The mere suspicion of mines or surviving missile launchers is enough to make insurers pull coverage or make it cost prohibitive, which halts commercial traffic as surely as any weapon.
A better bet may be to declare victory and walk away. The Iranians would have no credible pretext for continuing their attacks on the Gulf once the bombing stops. And declaring victory would not be stretching the truth.
Trump has indeed extracted an enormous cost on Iran’s regime. Its missile volume is down more than 90 percent. Its supreme leader is dead.
By stopping the bombing without agreeing to any formal peace, Trump keeps his options open for future strikes. And in doing so, he also hands the regime a catastrophe. The clerics will emerge to face a shattered military, a wrecked economy and, most important, a population that will ask: What was all this for?
Air campaigns do not produce regime change on their own. NATO’s 78-day bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 did not dislodge Slobodan Milosevic. But it weakened him enough that, little more than a year later, a popular revolution drove him from power. The same logic could hold for Iran. A regime that has just been as humiliated as this one is a regime living on borrowed time.
Trump does not need to finish the job himself. He just needs to stop doing things that make him look like he can’t.
Would it be correct to believe that this editorial somehow represents the views of the AI&Crypto guys? Here the problem comes at 6th paragraph which is very much contradicted by the 8th paragraph: “Iranians have no credible pretext for continuing the attacks” and “Trump keeps his options open for future strikes”. Iranians do not need “pretexts” madam/sir. Their objective apparently consists on closing Trump options/desires for future strikes definitely. Pretexts are a monopoly of the Western PMCastes.
From the editorial:
>Air campaigns do not produce regime change on their own. NATO’s 78-day bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 did not dislodge Slobodan Milosevic. But it weakened him enough that, little more than a year later, a popular revolution drove him from power. The same logic could hold for Iran. A regime that has just been as humiliated as this one is a regime living on borrowed time.
How about the US is living on borrowed time? A regime that has just been as humiliated as this one is a regime living on borrowed time.
Always appreciate your comments Ben Panga
And those of so many others here