[This Iran war update launched before complete because Links. I expect to be done by 8:00 AM EDT. If you arrive early, please refresh your browser and reskim the article then]
US and Israel deception and duplicity continue as Trump fabricates that peace is about to bust out all over. It’s been well covered in the press, and some of the video segments below provide more color, that after Trump extended his own deadline for obliterating Iran’s power plants unless they opened the Strait of Hormuz by five days, he then brayed that the Iranians were talking to the Administration and almost all issues were resolved. Not only did the Iranians clear their throats and say they still in radio silence mode but the fact that Trump kept talking about Witkoff and Kushner was an additional tell that Trump was again fabricating. Not only is Iran not willing to negotiate with a congenitally untrustworthy tag team of the US and Israel, but if I were Iran, the very last people I’d ever want to deal with again would be these particular con artists.1
But the problem is not merely that a five day pause accomplished nothing save for giving Trump opportunity to talk Mr. Market into a more cheery mood (and give insiders the chance to again make big bucks on advance notice). But even that is starting to erode, as the current BBC live blog banner headline attests (as of 6:00 AM EDT):
The fundamentals keep getting worse as Trump dithers. The slow bleeding out of the global economy gets worse the longer Strait of Hormuz traffic remains throttled down to a meager level. The LNG cliff of the end of the Qatar supply is hitting in 10 days or so; the reverberations from that may shake investors out of their somnolence. Mind you, getting traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz won’t remedy that shortfall but it would at least reduce other pressure.
But it’s not just the real economy that is deteriorating. So too are the dynamics among the key actors. As he appears to yet again try to head-fake the Iranians with a micro-climbdown, the belligerents continued to play chicken with attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Minute Monitor indicatedStrikes hit Iran energy sites in Isfahan, Khorramshahr that there was some doubt as to when the attack came<:
It remains unclear whether the attacks occurred before or after US President Donald Trump announced an extension of his ultimatum to Iran and instructed the Department of War not to target energy infrastructure.
Other reports were less equivocal:
The IRGC says US-Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian energy facilities, including the gas management building and a gas pressure reduction facility in Isfahan, and a gas pipeline feeding the Khorramshahr power plant. The IRGC vow to hit Israel (doing it NOW) and the Gulf power…
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) March 24, 2026
Even if they fell short by design, this sort of thing reconfirms the utter untrustworthiness of the US/Israel side. At best, the US decided to test Iran’s red lines before pulling back a smidge.
As for what comes next, Larry Johnson argues the plan to land forces is moving ahead. From Looks Like Donald Trump is Serious About Puting US Boots on the Ground in Iran:
In my recent article — Boots on the Ground in Iran… A Deception or a Suicide Mission? — I was shocked by the lack of OPSEC (aka Operational Security) surrounding the deployment of the 31st and 11th MEUs (Marine Expeditionary Unit). Then there was the news that the 82nd Airborne had cancelled an upcoming exercise and also were being deployed to the Persian Gulf as well. Why advertise that you are sending an amphibious force and an airborne unit to the Persian Gulf…? I speculated that publicizing the movement of these units could be a deception operation…Based on Donald Trump’s statements today, coupled with new information provided by OSINT Defender and The Intel Frog, it appears that Trump has ordered a ground operation inside Iran that could begin as early as Friday…
He [Trump] stated that, based on the “in-depth, detailed, and constructive” nature of these talks (which he said would continue throughout the week), he had instructed the Department of Defense (“Department of War”) to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period…
The Iranian government wasted no time in denying Trump’s claim. Iran has zero interest in working out a negotiated settlement to the war on terms demanded by Trump…
The first clue came from Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period. Why five-days? The 31st MEU will be in place in the Arabian Sea, ready for action. I want to remind you that the MEU received its deployment order on March 13… Remember that date. I then learned late on Monday that Trump cancelled his appearance at CPAC this weekend and that he will not attend a fundraiser at Mar a Lago on Friday night…
Then I saw this X-post by the IntelFrog:
A significant movement is underway from US Army, Navy and Air Force bases in CONUS to the Middle East comprised of at least 35 C-17 flights since March 12th, with 11 more flights on the way.
Origins:
12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA
8-Unknown
7-JB Lewis-McChord, WA
6-Pope Army Air Field/Fort Bragg, NC
4-Campbell Army Airfield/Fort Campbell, KY
4-Gray Army Airfield/JB Lewis-McChord, WA
4-Naval Air Station Oceana, VA
1-MacDill AFB, FL
1-JB McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, NJ
Destinations:
17-Ovda Air Base, Israel
13-King Faisal Air Base, Jordan
4-King Hussein Int’l Airport, Jordan
When you Google the military units located at these airfields in the US, a pattern begins to emerge…[Johnson provides a great deal of detail but even on a skim, it is not hard to see that the Administration is assembling force from many units]
I do not know what is being planned, but the intense activity of at least 35 C-17 missions at these bases indicates a major Special Operations activity is in the works. The activity started on March 12 — one day before the 31st MEU was deployed. Coincidence? I don’t think so. If I can figure this out using only open source data, I have no doubt that the Iranians, the Russians and the Chinese are monitoring this activity as well…
I have not seen the claims in this tweet confirmed, but if they are correct, it looks like the belligerents are out to widen the war:
Absolute bombshell. General McMaster casually admits on live TV that the IDF is now striking Russian ships in the Caspian Sea and the US is blocking Chinese fuel shipments to Iran. They are literally trying to ignite World War 3 to protect Israel. pic.twitter.com/FLvlYgsSie
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 23, 2026
Even as Trump is trying again to shore up his manhood, he seems to also be expanding his propaganda options by tarring Hegseth, which suggests that even Trump knows that his denialism bubble can’t keep the evidence of failure hidden. Reader Ann highlighted a New Republic story, Trump Throws Pete Hegseth Under the Bus as Iran War Spirals. Her favorite line: ““’egseth about to give his next briefing from under the bus,’ liberal podcaster Jon Favreau wrote on X.”
Netanyahu is also bringing out the blame cannons:
Trump and Netanyahu are desperately searching for scapegoats – while Trump called Hegseth indirectly yesterday – Bibi is now blaming Mossad for not forseeing Iran's resilience…
The war is lost at this point – any off ramp destroyed by multiple lies and deception.
Iran will…— — GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 — (@GeromanAT) March 24, 2026
As the US is moving up the escalation ladder (a mer pause with a threat still in play with no sign at all that the US is softening its stance), experts warn of nuclear war risk. I cannot embed YouTube shorts, but John Mearsheimer argues that if Israel perceives that it is losing, and believes Iran is even more hostile than before due to damage and deaths inflicted, it will have incentives to attack Iran with nuclear weapons.
Even though we along with many others have pointed out that Iran is reported to have a dead hand capability (as in would unleash missiles and drones across the Middle East and destroy Israel’s critical infrastructure and Gulf oil production), Ted Postol, in a must-watch video, explains long-form how Iran could in a not very long time build 10 or 11 low-yield nuclear bombs pretty quickly from the enriched uranium it has and gave a very detailed and sobering description of what would result if they used three on the Tel Aviv environs:
Postol also has a good, short discussion at the top of how air defense systems are a con (at best, they are limited in what they can do) and Israel’s are no longer effective.
Colonel Wilkerson makes some deservedly acid observations about the lack of a US strategy as well as nuclear war risk:
Mind you, Israel is plenty fragile so I am not sure Iran would take the time and bother of hitting back with a nuclear weapon sinc they can easily ruin Israel by entirely conventional means. For instance:
Shaul Goldstein, CEO of Noga Energy, which serves as the independent system operator for Israel’s electricity grid:
A power outage lasting 72 hours in Israel would render life impossible here. pic.twitter.com/pUZYrh3Wsc— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) March 23, 2026
But Postol’s graphic discussion of what an attack with merely three low-yield nuclear bombs would do to Israel is likely important by focusing a few minds.
Professor Sayed Marandi confirms with Daniel Davis that Iran has not been in direct or indirect contact with the US, and is sticking to its demands, which if you have been following them over time, seem to be increasing, such as the fresh one that Gulf states divest their Treasuries. Davis seemed incredulous that Iran was asking for reparations and prodded Marandi, that some of these asks were presumably negotiating chips that Iran would bargain away. Marandi maintained that Iran was prepared to fight a long war and recognized it needed to establish new facts on the ground.
Professor Marandi also confirmed that the UAE and other Gulf states are moving even closer to the US…as if they were not already joined at the hip. If you listen to Aljazeera or other mainstream outlets covering the conflict, they regularly report on the bleatings of officials in these countries, that they are not supporting the US and it is so unfair that they are being targeted.
Since Marandi spoke to Davis, there have been reports of some attempts at outreach, such as this tidbit from Democracy Docket, U.S. sent Iran a message through mediators as Trump signals he’s open to a deal, Iranian official says (hat tip reader Ann). But even calling this a feeler sounds generous. A fair bit of this is likely to amount to particularly afflicted states pleading for peace on their own as well as trying to get some communication going to facilitate that.
Aljazeera provided a weak-tea report of the same type. At the top, the presenter says, there are “signs of a diplomatic channel opening” with Iranian foreign minister Araghchi in contact with officials in Egypt, Pakistan, and admittedly the former mediating state, Oman.
The Wall Street Journal reported on what anyone with an operating brain cell should have worked out by now, that the US is indeed using operations in these states to prosecute the war. The subhead of the piece, The Land-Based Missiles That Are Crucial to America’s Air War on Iran makes clear the GCC members are complicit: “The weapons add a new dimension to U.S. attack and raise the possibility that Gulf allies are launch points” ” From the story proper:
In the opening hours of the war, the U.S. fired ballistic missiles that streaked high over the Persian Gulf and slammed into targets in Iran, the first use of the Army’s two-year-old highly accurate missiles in combat….
The short-range missiles can travel 200 to 300 miles, meaning they likely were fired from the territory of Persian Gulf countries that have taken the brunt of Iranian drone and missile attacks. None has admitted to allowing its land or airspace to be used to attack Iran.
Gulf countries that allow their territory to be used to fire the missiles are walking a careful line between aiding the U.S. militarily while publicly insisting they are seeking to keep out of the fight.
“If the Americans could show them a way to finish off the regime, then they would be more likely to take risks in terms of openly siding against the regime than they are today,” said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. “At the same time, they aren’t going to say no to the U.S. in the midst of a shooting war.”
These family dictatorships have also been pounding their feet and saying they will man up too to go after Iran. Middle East Eye reports, The Gulf countries may retaliate if Iran attacks continue, Turkey says Middle East Eye. resilc observed: “This is the most laughable threat in the history of war…..”
And the Gulf States continue to cling to Trump even as he attempts to extort them. Rev Kev linked to this article in The Cradle US demands trillions in ‘war ransom’ from GCC allies: Report
US President Donald Trump is trying to extort Gulf allies for trillions of dollars to wage a war on Iran, allegedly on their behalf, according to an Omani journalist speaking to BBC Arabic on 20 March.
The BBC presenter asked Omani journalist and international affairs researcher Salem Al-Jahouri to comment on reports that the White House was “putting pressure” on Gulf states to participate more broadly in the war against Iran.
“This is absolutely true. The Gulf Cooperation Council states are facing pressure, both military and financial pressure,” Jahouri responded.
“Today we are talking about certain leaks in which the American president is demanding that the GCC states pay approximately $5 trillion if they want this war to continue, and if they want it to stop, they must pay $2.5 trillion to the United States for what has been accomplished over the past period,” Jahouri stressed.
Mind you, the GCC countries’ pleading may have stayed Trump’s hand for the moment (see for instance France 24,
Trump U-turn on Hormuz could be due to ‘pressure’ from Gulf nations) but a prospective market freakout looks like the more powerful factor.
Has no one heard the Nassim Nicholas Taleb warning, that the turkey has the greatest confidence that the farmer is his friend the day before his slaughter, because that is when he has the most observations of being plumped up by him?
Schadenfreude aside, the further solidification of the loyalty of these oil baronies to the US is yet another reason this conflict is unlikely to end any time soon. As we said before, one possible path out was if Iran could peel any of them off to make a separate peace, as in be left alone if they kicked the American military out, professed neutrality, and agreed to pay a toll to transit the Strait as a way to pay reparations. Instead, they are subjecting themselves to a test to destruction. With small very wealthy elites dependent on a mix of native underclasses and (generally badly treated) guest workers, their position is fragile. How much in the way of increased energy costs, much higher food casts, shortages, and the specter of what the lower orders will see as a war that hurts them most of all, will it take to foment Arab Spring type revolts?
And what does Iran do when these statelets come apart? That oil infrastructure is very valuable. Does it seize it (as in is an occupation conceivable given the size and structure of the Iranian military?) Or does it reach an understanding with the upstarts that have overthrown these kings and princes and let them keep their energy wealth if they play nicely with Iran?
Various sightings on the kinetic war front:
Hindustan Times reports on more damage in Iran…
….even as it points to more evidence of Iran opening a wider lead in its dominance over US operations in the region:
Similarly:
Satellite footage from the Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait shows the precision destruction of a drone hangar and a satellite communication antenna. The Resistance has paralyzed the U.S. drone surveillance grid and its ability to relay real-time intelligence across the region. The… pic.twitter.com/4ICPJHQ9tH
— Thomas Keith (@iwasnevrhere_) March 23, 2026
Keep in mind, however, as former Royal Navy officer Steven Jermy pointed out on YouTube, the US still has a surveillance backup to its THAAD and other radars, which is AWACS planes. But Jermy pointed out they’d need to be aloft 24/7, and that these planes are already old and are being pushed mighty hard.
Anadolu Agency confirms that Iran is still doing real damage to Israel in Smoke rises over Tel Aviv after Iranian missile strikes on Israel
The aforementioned Gulf states are taking more punches:
On the economic front, briefly. The press is giving more attention to the serious and mounting real economy harms of this conflict. Here, the Financial Times fixates on food. This information is likely familiar to readers here but perhaps not enough to those of the pink paper. From Hormuz fertiliser block will upend world’s food production:
Gulf states account for 49 per cent of globally traded urea and 30 per cent of ammonia, perishable contributors to the nitrogen cycle that makes high-yield agriculture possible. When that supply chain stops, the effects accumulate quietly in soil chemistry and planting decisions over the months that follow….
he agricultural damage clock runs in weeks. Winter wheat across the US, Europe and parts of the Middle East needs its final nitrogen application in the next three to four weeks.
The food security clock runs in months. Most import-dependent nations carry enough grain reserves to absorb a short disruption, not enough to outlast a season. The Horn of Africa is already on the edge of famine. This pushes it over.
Finally, the geopolitical clock runs in years. Food price spikes above 30 to 40 per cent have a documented correlation with political instability in fragile states within six to 18 months of the price trigger.
And from Bloomberg, The Iran Energy Price Shock Is Getting Very Real in Europe:
• The war in Iran is turning into an energy shock for Europe, with the EU’s economic growth pointing downward and inflation upward.
• The European Union’s leaders are turning to alternative sources, such as Algeria, and announcing consumer support packages to address the energy crisis.
• The EU’s economy is weaker than in 2022, with finances of core countries fragile, and the longer the Iran conflict lasts, the higher the bill for pricier energy imports into Europe.
And Iran is making out very well from the war:
Energy industry insider in Iran tells me the following, and it is STUNNING:
Before the war, Iran produced just shy of 1.1mn barrels of oil per day, and sold it at $65 per barrel minus $18 discount (i.e. $47)
Today, it produces 1.5mn barrels a day, and sells it at $110 with…
— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) March 23, 2026
All for now! See you tomorrow!
____
1 Witkoff being a procedural messenger-boy would not count.
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Chabahar (SE Iran) is right next to the route that Alexander the Great took on the Greeks’return from the Indus valley.
the area is inhospitable (at modern-levels) without modern infrastructure/constant supply. perfect place for our western “Powerpoint culture”, detached from reality, to wreck itself. as on a Powerpoint slide, it tempts, like a siren, as the new Gibraltar or Gitmo
Are CENTCOM’s AI/LLM array up on logistics? Or like US generals/admirals ignore the loggie!
Chabahar has a container facility investment of Indian concerns to link to BRI and the north south links. If US went in it could use the port for a few hours. Indian concerns would lose investments.
Ex-Army Ranter Greg Stoker reports that much of US logistics is outsourced and therefore sucks
Logistics, laundry, mail, food, sleeping quarters…outsourced to “save money” while making various grifters total rich. Except in a real military the men and women who do these chores are trained soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines. When the enemy comes over the wall they grab their M4 and know what to do. The outsourcing contractors, not so much.
My dad was a navy supply officer in WW II. Harvard Business School ran a 6 month training program to prepare Navy supply officers.
Speaking from experience, it wasn’t particularly good when it was insourced… ;-)
During weapon system procurement maintenance plans are identified and fleshed out to repair systems during extended use, this is done iteratively with design of the equipment. When money gets short maintenance plans get raided.
Technical repair processes become unfunded. The result is contractors do the repairs. This became widespread during the 1990’s in my experience.
One problem is contractors don’t like to be targets.
Contract support usually includes supply chain as well, which means FEDEX has to be in theater….
Heck, it was a thing in the 80s. We had a turret systems mechanic in Germany who was going to ETS into a civilian company doing the same job at a significant increase in pay, WITH an “overseas bonus” that made the gig even sweeter.
I remember stories about DHL (I think) planes being shot at with MANPADs in Iraq and Afghanistan and wondeting wtf they were doing in war zone. Then I found out that they were the logistics for US military and other govt agencies.
M&M Enterprises…
Ted Postol’s musings about the potential for Iran to make nukes and devastate Israel (triggering tender Western sympathies) should carry a disclaimer: by all accounts, Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon and was willing to make a deal that would ensure that it never would.
As readers know: the Epstein Regime rejected that deal, choosing to gamble on a surprise decapitation strike in the midst of peace talks. Then Trump bragged that he and Netanyahu “did the world a favor” when Iranian outrage rained down on the middle-east.
While you have made some helpful observations before, I take umbrage at comments that mislead readers and force me to waste time better spent on new posts cleaning up informational messes.
Yours above is way off base and an insult to Postol.
Had you bothered to listen to his talk attentively (or at all?), as opposed to straw manning him, Postol early on goes on at some length that Iran had not wanted a nuke, the JCPOA was severely constraining and effective in preventing its development. They were promised sanctions relief that they never got in return.
Postol also VERY clearly depicted Iran as not having a nuclear weapon but that they could in a not specified amount of time create 10 to 12 low yield bombs from the enriched uranium they have.
Iran also – presumably – has a lot of depleted uranium, which burns like hell and creates a lasting toxic mess when used in munitions. I haven’t heard much about that.
Apologies. I’ll try to avoid nitpicking in the future.
I was concerned about the textual presentation of the video, not the contents of the video itself.
Not everyone will watch the video.
Postol also noted the critical role of Genocide Joe Biden in this mess when he could have reinstated the JCPOA but instead let Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions on Iran stay in effect. Same goes for Trump’s sanctions on Cuba after Obama had relaxed our embargo, and Biden left all of Trump’s sanctions in place there, as well. Gotta love them Democrats!
‘Davis seemed incredulous that Iran was asking for reparations and prodded Marandi, that some of these asks were presumably negotiating chips that Iran would bargain away.’
Davis is usually levelheaded but when does on country demolish another country’s infrastructure and then gets to walk away with no consequences. That only happens if that country wins but this is not the case here. Somebody is going to have to pay to rebuild what has been destroyed in Iran so Iran may accept a revenue stream from ship’s passage through the Strait of Hormuz instead of reparations. Why not? That happens with the Panama Canal as well as the Suez Canal. Somebody pointed out that Canada and the US also charge for passage as well in their near waters. Again, somebody is going to have to pay to rebuild all the damage in Iran so some sort of arrangement will be necessary to help end this war.
Davis is interesting because he clearly hasn’t grasped the seismic shift in the world since February 28. He is still mentally inhabiting the world of US military supremacy, where “we would never let Iran turn the Gulf States into tributaries” would be a reasonable assumption. He is now in a world where Iran has the power to turn the Gulf States into tributaries, so they will, and they have plenty in the way of reasonable justifications for why they should do so. At the same time, he clearly understands intellectually that US military supremacy is a thing of the past, but he still thinks like a world policeman. Furthermore, most of US policy makers are still smoking the hopium of US military supremacy, and the colonialist and/or world policeman world view is completely unshakeable, which is why this war will likely end in a complete disaster for the West.
I don’t get that sense from his videos, so I would respectfully disagree. I feel some nostalgia for what might be called “the Golden Era of the Gulf Wars,” when plans came together against an easily slappable opponent, but he does a lot of head-shaking at what’s going on currently. I do think he might have some hidden longing for “just” wars for the dotmil to fight, but I don’t think he considers this to be one of those.
He also – at least the segment I watched yesterday, not sure about in the embed above – spent a large section of time with Prof. Marandi on the threats to Prof. Marandi, leading with it, in fact.
IMHO Davis saw enough combat settings that he has a strong view of the importance of professionalism, in performance, task definition, and strategy. So he is also regularly and legitimately appalled at the poor state of the armed services and the hap-hazard way they are thrown at problems.
When your military shows you who they are vis a vis all that sloppy marching in the parade in DC last summer…
…believe them
Can I agree 200% in an economics-related blog? Or will my crappy math ability get me yelled at? :-)
I would add that he’s not terribly keen on the way “leadership” doesn’t actually lead or prep.
That said, it’s really not too different from half a century ago – just look at how few units arrived at the National Training Center ready to go to work.
And Wuk – while marching isn’t the be all and end all it used to be, PRIDE certainly is. The marching was definitely proof of lack of same.
@Wukchumni & @Oregon Lawhobbit,
How do you evaluate the view that the out-of-step “marching” was the US Army’s way of flipping a bird to a bone-spurred CINC and a twit of a SecDef — in this view, a case of grudging compliance on a compliance-defiance continuum?
Military participation being what it is in the U.S., a majority of the public (not to mention Congress) might not recognize “in-step,” even fewer “dress right.” But a majority might know the vibe that something more extreme, like goose-stepping, conveys. To me, the footage that I saw from 14 June 25 delivered the opposite vibe.
Then the brass delivered a stony silence at Hegseth’s coming-out party.
Maybe it’s just my wishful thinking to impute this message from them: hey, we haven’t fallen for these guys yet, but we still must follow legal orders from them.
Best regards,
My only dalliance with the US military was when I signed my selective service pledge almost a half century ago, so i’m the last guy you want to talk about in regard to decorum on the field, but I’ve seen prouder high school marching bands than the hackneyed display in the DC parade.
When I went through boot in NTC San Diego, we marched A LOT. The company formation was tall in front, short in back.
The Iranian company formation was tall-short-tall, which was curious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzvtW0OwjfA
Actually, I don’t think anyone is going to pay and I don’t think anything is going to get rebuilt. Welcome to the next step down.
I believe the Iranian response to that would be, “Then little to nothing goes through the Strait.”
We’ll see who gets what they want…..
Iraq should have a large claim against the USA for Bush Jr’s war.
Iraqis should charge the USA for loss of life (excess deaths of 1million?), infrastructure destruction, and irreplaceablee cultural destruction.
But Wolfowitz claimed Iraq could fund its own reconstruction out of oil revenues.
That is similar to intentionally burning someone’s house down and then claiming they must use their own finances to rebuild.
The, allegedly, just and Christian nation of the USA should compensate Iraq for the damages of the Iraq war.
But there is no movement in that direction I can see.
Regarding AWACS planes: https://www.itamilradar.com/2026/03/23/us-navy-e-2d-hawkeyes-stage-at-aviano-en-route-to-the-gulf/
On Flightradar24 there is typically an AWACS circling in eastern Turkyie using a NATO call sign while heck’s a popping.
Doubt if the GCC militaries will really be up for this, since their combat role would appear to be missile sponge.
Funny that. Reminds one of an old Seinfeld quip :
“Are they sponge-worthy ?” Seems they very well are.
As a matter of fact, we have a fairly good idea of what the militaries of several GCC countries are good for from their recent involvement in a couple of conflicts:
1) Saudi Arabia: war against Yemen. A lot of bombing and destruction inflicted through a profusion of military means (following Israel / USA practices), but tactically and strategically inept.
2) UAE: war against Yemen. Some shrewd strategic moves, but tactically fragile with rapid reversals of fortune.
3) Qatar: civil war in Libya to overthrow Gaddafi. Support role (training, guidance, special operations) for vastly larger, expendable irregular forces.
Whether those militaries have analysed and integrated their field experience to improve their operations is a big unknown. But even then, I do not think they can measure up with Iran.
The character of some of the combatants:
https://indi.ca/the-arab-apostates-are-history/
The snippet with an UAE minister interviewd by a western outfit is revealing in calling Israel et co their allies…
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/israeli-settlers-carry-out-pogrom-in-west-bank/
“A message which circulated before the attacks in a WhatsApp group used by settlers said: “Revenge campaign across Judea and Samaria: Jews won’t remain silent over spilled Jewish blood.” Israelis refer to the West Bank as “Judea and Samara.” Right-wing groups called for revenge after the death of an Israeli settler activist, Yehudah Sherman, was reportedly killed this weekend in a car accident while driving his ATV. Video footage from the crash site shows Palestinian residents and the Palestinian Red Crescent attempting to help and rescue Sherman.”
Just when you think Zionist depravity can’t get any worse. But thank you for highlighting it.
But wait. It can get worse-
https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2026/03/23/a-revolting-moral-outrage-israeli-soldiers-reportedly-torture-gaza-toddler/
About 15 years ago I looked into how secure the West Coast electrical grid was, as well as how secure the water distribution system was in California..
It isn’t, they aren’t, and it is common knowledge.
“Homeland Security” has done nothing to improve the security of America’s critical infrastructure, it is wide open.
In the wake of that huge blackout on the East Coast a couple of decades ago, a huge report that had been being researched for almost a year by iirc NBC was released that showed this was not just possible but likely throughout the entire US. That our electrical grid system was vulnerable to both demand failure AND sabotage. Including unprotected and essentially sitting duck substations.
That last major blackout on the East Coast was a cascade failure as the increased draw sent one station and substation down as they were hit with the ever increasing demands from the previously failed electrical grid.
Now I have not studied the whole system, but any increased capacity and hardening of the system since then in NY has not begun to keep with increased personal demand and especially with increased commercial demand in the time since most particularly in the last half decade. I have no doubt that a similar cascade failure is not just possible but likely in the event of a failure during a period of high personal demand. As any supposedly critical infrastructure or important commercial system requires their power be restored even if it means removing whatever protections have been put in place to make sure other sections of the grid are not overwhelmed.
There were some incidents in my region where cranks had fired into and damaged equipment using rifles. Locally Duke has upgraded the fencing and likely made other changes to their substations to improve security.
The crazy isn’t just overseas or in the partially demolished White House.
IIRC, it was 2022 or so when someone shot up a couple of Duke energy substations in rural North Carolina with a hunting rifle (listed as a high powered rifle but who knows?) and it knocked out power to most of the county for a few days. No one has been caught, despite 6 figure inducements.
This issue has been “war gamed” to death in a variety of survivalist forums. The conventional wisdom seems to be that a few “lone wolfs” acting in parallel tandem (i.e. indepedently operating in close time) can do some real damage on a localized level. Hell, you wouldn’t even need a rifle. A catapult with shredded aluminum strips or just winging a 4-5 foot section of chain at just the right spot and the substation would go.
The substations are small fry, though, compared to other industrial equipment. The Colonial pipeline moves almost half of the US supply of jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline up the east coast from the Gulf coast refineries. It is essentially unguarded and readily visible for anyone using Google maps.
We are just not a serious country anymore. The bridge across Maryland’s Chesapeake bay outside of Baltimore, knocked down by an errant ship in 2024, is now expected to be rebuilt by 2030. I have a bet with a friend that it will not be rebuilt in our lifetimes.
The TRUE bill for Neo-liberalism is coming due…
Physical infrastructure sabotage is not the only vulnerability.
One city-wide power cut over over 24 hours that I experienced was avoidable, and happened due to a software and control failure. Physical damage to power infrastructure (from an earthquake) was relatively minor and localized, but the necessary steps to contain the damage and adjust the grid to compensate were not taken, leading to overloading and cascading failures and eventually a system-wide outage.
On the personnel front, operators of the SCADA systems have the ability to shut off whole cities and regions. They’re very carefully vetted for that reason, and there are generally security controls and procedures in place to mitigate any accidental impact, but all of these can fail or be weakened due to institutional rot or other reasons, and formerly trustworthy employees can change their views or be compromised or radicalized.
Flawed network design and lack of redundancy is yet another angle. Power grids are critical systems and reliability expectations for them are very high. That means a lot of redundancy and fault tolerance in design, which is expensive and (to the layperson) may look overkill or unnecessary. Engineers are generally well versed in why it’s needed and can explain, but they aren’t always the ones with political power or holding the purse strings (c.f. Boeing) and can be overruled. Cutting corners on reliability can be invisible until it sets off a major crisis.
“what are you, contrarian by nature?!”
always glad to read your assessments and information. thankyou.
All utilities should be run as a public good with mandatory investments into infrastructure improvements.
Right now it looks like we (US) is all in on coal and NG but are essentially hoping that fusion and/or super hot geothermal and/or horizontal drilled geothermal will save the day…the first two seem like pipe dreams and the latter is not going to do baseload but it’ll help.
We are led by con artists. I believe NK posted that great Corporate Bullshot Meter paper. The people in charge of our country and corporations are not able to meet this moment.
I know it might sound like a stupid idea, but wouldn’t it be more cost effective to stop giving the rest of the world reason to see us as enemies?
We truly are not a serious country. Back in the early 2010’s when those quadcopter drones became easily available, it should have been sufficient cause to develop effective countermeasures. Instead the FAA promoted a plan to have all unmanned aircraft carry a registered transponder. As a member of the model aviation community, we generally told them to piss off.
Ashes, Ashes podcast has an episode about this very situation
I would expect the attack to target Khuzestan–Iranian oil fields. It is in the northern end of the Persian Gulf, next to Iraq. That’s where Saddam attacked. It has a large Arab population. And much of it is fairly flat. Easy, right?
Then consider that the population, though Arab, is largely Shia. And then there is the tiny problem that Iran knows exactly what the prize is (Saddam tried to get the oil, too) and has undoubtedly planned for the Western attempt to grab it.
No staging ground and no troops either–the units being talked about are soecial ops and light unfantry mostly, with fairly minimal logistics. They’ll never survive for more than half a day in Khuzestan, I should think. Whatever it might be, the plan would be for some James Bond type caper.
I wondered if the marines were supposed to take Basra and then turn right. But landing in the marshes will be a killzone.
I still think the marines are at best distraction and at worst a sacrifice, to entitle the USA to “save” them nuking Iran.
If they are a distraction, the other assets being sent to the Gulf are going to do something but what, exactly, from Israel? Secure Syria and Jordan for Israel? Secure Sinai *from* Israel? LOL.
Evacuating the GCC rulers seems improbable. Maybe helping to secure the eastern Saudi and Bahraini oil and gas fields from their Shia workers?
A special op deep in Iran to liberate the nuclear material, like the Telemark British operation to destroy Norwegian heavy water missions in WW2, seems unlikely.
The only useful place to put those assets is Baluchistan and to try to open up the Iranian coast from its eastern extremity or Armenia / Azerbaijan and try to attack towards Tehran, entraining Azeri and Kurdish separatists in your wake.
The post is now complete. Please refresh your browsers and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
Thank you!
Thank you.
Also, I think there is a small formatting error. Looks like a typo didn’t close the link tag for the WSJ story, which makes all of the following block quote active. The tag is closed by the subsequent Middle East Eye link, which also doesn’t work as a result.
fixed. thanks
Thank you for your hard work and dedication.
Not just for this war but for over 20 years!
Mersheimer maybe hasn’t thought this through because use of nukes is generally believed to be “inconceivable”.
Israeli leaders will never believe that they will/could lose because they have USA/Trump on their side. What they might want – in coordination with USA – is a reason to bring the war to a quick conclusion so as to avoid devastation of Israel and ME oil production.
So nukes will likely be considered well before the perception that the war is lost. And not as an Israel safeguard but as a joint US-Israeli maneuver (explained away as “we did the world a favor” by Trump).
Trump-Netanyahu have already established the precedence for pre-emptive attacks with Trump’s justification for having joined with Netanyahu to start the war.
=
Note: I wrote a couple of days ago that Iran’s stated (and predictable) response to destruction of it’s electric plants could trigger a pre-emptive nuclear attack from Israel.
And now you read minds? Your “I know better” tone towards highly regarded experts is a bit much. You’ve done it 2x in this thread now and the first time was a straw man.
Most authorities are loath to even talk much about the use of nuclear weapons because discussing their use risks normalizing and encouraging it.
On top of that, as indicated, the clip is a YouTube short, as in extracted from a longer video. You make assumptions about Mearsheimer’s thinking without having seen the prior conversation or questions that led to these statements.
You are becoming negative value added in terms of my having to take issue with your either false or unduly speculative comments.
Apologies for the tone. That was not my intention. I don’t think I know better. I’m just outlining the logic.
Iran is now down-playing the possible destruction of its power plants, saying they could be rebuilt quickly. From the Aljazeera Liveblog (about 5 hours ago):
Maybe their step-back from their initial belligerence is to avoid providing a pretext for a preemptive strike? That would be smart.
I don’t read it that way at all. The notion that this is de-escalatory IMHO is Western cope for messaging aimed at a domestic audience to reassure them.
Iran’s mode so far (witness the Qatar gas field attack and then hitting a target close to Dimona after two separate firings at Iran’s reactor, which did not do damage) is to strike the same type of assets, if anything harder. The only exception I can recall is not attacking desalination ops after the US took out the small one on Kharg Island. That may be because my impression is that the ones in Israel and the Gulf states are large and serve a LOT of people, so a retaliation in kind would have been disporportionate.
It has been reported (I sadly can’t get everything into these posts) that Iran’s electrical grid is decentralized and so an attack would not do catastrophic damage. That may be specifically to counter fresh claims by Trump in interviews (in Janta Ka, not included above, I think also in one of the Aljazeera segments) that the reason Iran wanted to talk was that one US bomb could destroy Iran’s entire electrical output.
One of the interviews above (IIRC Wilkerson) said that in the Gulf state, power production and desalination were often in the same complex.
‘Iran’s electrical grid is decentralized’
Very much so according to an article here recently. Going by memory, they have about 400 stations so you would have to go after each and every one of them. Trump was talking about attacking the biggest one but the thing is that that station only handles less than 3% of the Iranian grid. Now Israel’s grid on the other hand…
In the engineering world (my field) a big design criteria is usually (or should be) resilience. That is, strive to eliminate single points of failure and ensure that your system will keep operating even when parts of it fail.
Those who have read about the history of the internet recall that this was one of the major design goals for the TCP/IP networking protocols, which were supposed to enable communications during a nuclear war and therefore reconfigure themselves rapidly and keep on working even when parts of the network were knocked out.
Unfortunately, this common wisdom has been slowly fading away in recent decades as an emphasis on low-cost and efficiency has displaced quality and reliability. Hopefully a small silver lining of the recent first world wars will be a demonstration that society’s infrastructure needs to keep on working even when things are being blown up.
Well, at least I can always hope!
That is correct, all the big desalination plants in the Gulf are right next to their power plants. This makes economic sense because this type of desalination plant (distillation) need a lot of heat, and the power plants generate a lot of waste heat which they can use to heat up the seawater instead of just throwing the heat away.
Trump is 180 degrees wrong; one bomb won’t destroy Iran’s electrial grid, but one bomb *can* destroy a huge swathe of Saudi electrical/freshwater infrastructure. It’s as if the guy living in a glass house is threatening to start a stone-throwing contest against the guy living in a wooden house.
Ir’s not his glass house, though…
“It has been reported (I sadly can’t get everything into these posts) that Iran’s electrical grid is decentralized and so an attack would not do catastrophic damage. .”
Nima Alkhorshid (Dialogue Works) during his talk with Stanislav Krapivnik, Nima said that Iran’s grid is connected. If one power plant goes down, another will power plant will pick up the load. Stanislav said that would be bad, and pointed to a Canadian power plant (on the East coast) going down that took down the eastern U.S. grid, because they were connected. Stanislav argued it would be better if they were not connected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALKwUXSfnqc
Stas is wrong about the US grid. The part that went down was most definitely basically one big grid-let:
And
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_power_transmission_grid
How would Israeli or US nuclear strikes on Iran prevent it from devastating Middle East gas and oil production? Isn’t it likely that some, at least, of Iran’s drones and missiles would survive, and be used to maximum effect?
It wouldn’t. It wouldn’t open the straight either.
Alastair Crooke says that Iran has a dead hand response to this scenario.
I am pretty sure the GCC monarchies, with the exception of Oman, are going to be done after this war. We have every indication that Iran intends to dominate the wider region after this war and that is incompatible with the existence of GCC monarchies.
So next time riots break out in Bahrain or in the Eastern Saudi Arabia maybe Iran intervenes to protect the Shia population. How long will Saudi underclasses stay quiet when their state salaries are cut because Iran is charging billions of dollars a year in reparations and Hormuz tolls? These countries exist only because US security umbrella ensured that internal dissent could be suppressed.
It would be very devious of the Iranians if, as a settlement condition, they insisted on free, open and democratic elections in the GCC. I mean, who can argue with Democracy© and Freedom™, right?
Alternatively, since their strategy seems to be a lot of “respond in kind,” or, as Yves puts it above, “…to strike the same type of assets, if anything harder.”
Maybe some sort of decapitation strikes on the GCC are worth Iranian consideration…
Apparently, Iran has loitering munitions with a potential of 4 days on site. They could easily monitor protests and bomb security forces. It would not take much Iranian “air force” support for the statelets to fall. I think the issue at this point is that they are largely irrelevant to the war, and Iran’s priority is the degradation (attrition) of US ISR and logistical support lines. But at some point, a few weeks perhaps, attention will turn to them.
Whenever you come across what seems like a really insane political initiative, the question to ask is not “what is thus intended to accomplish?” but rather “what is this intended to avoid?” As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, most historical disasters have come about not because the plan was good but because the alternative was worse.
The option of declaring victory and leaving is not open, because it’s the Iranians who will decide when and if the war stops. That leaves only two options: a humiliating climbdown, or something, anything, that will keep the conflict going, buy time, divert attention from Iranian missile attacks and just conceivably string things out until the regime collapses, as the Mossad still thinks it will, apparently. Since the first is impossible, the second selects itself. Bear in mind that it could be stretched over several weeks, as forces arrive and assemble, a few daring small-scale raids are carried out and more threats and promises are made. It’s the choice between certain failure and probable failure. Anything that keeps the ball in the air will do.
The world economy will not allow for the second option for more than a very few weeks. Too many chickens coming home to roost such as oil, gas, sulpher, helium, naphtha and god knows what else. You can only keep the price of oil down for so long too but already we are seeing fuel shortages around the world. As far as I can see we already have a world recession baked into the pie and if this keeps up, Mr. Market is going to have a coronary.
It’s maybe indigestion, but my gut tells me that the Zionists do not care about the world economy. This is a crusade and they will keep it up until some key power element in their camp breaks, and it can’t physically can’t go further.
Live by the disruption, die by the disruption.
They only know one game.
“Too many chickens coming home to roost such as oil, gas, sulpher, helium, naphtha and god knows what else.”
Remittances from Pakistanis / Indians / Bengalis / Nepalese / Philippinos / Egyptians / … working in Gulf countries — about 35 millions of guest workers and expats in total.
PLASTIC! Which comes from naptha.
Go into a store and see how pervasive it is in packaging
Plastic has kind of a Y2K feel to it.
It has a trillion touch points through the supply chains. Electronic components (IC’s, transistors, cabling, capacitors, etc.) are each encased in plastic.
Every conceivable liquid, goop, lubricant, and powder is shipped in and dispensed from plastic containers, bags, tubes, and industrial storage sacks.
If everyone everywhere just has one component they’re missing or one goop that can’t be shipped, it could ping-pong and chain-react throughout the supply chain universe.
There was a time, in and around the first waves of Covid, where the supply chain seemed to have completely lost its brains. This seems like it should be so much worse.
Asia more exposed. I think US light grades are naptha-friendly.
Consider also:
1. What happens to garbage when plastic bags run out? Vermin and insect infestations
2. What happens to medical disposables, like syringes, catheters, saline drip bags?
This also = business failures. Companies that cannot distribute their wares get no revenues.
We here are in a bad way:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3218603/thailand-offers-iran-food-for-plastic-pellets-fertiliser.
And this morning my time:
https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40064126
Robert Louis Stevenson
Or a hospital.
How well do you know jugglers? The people who juggle objects of seemingly different shapes annd weights are often not doing that. Shapes are minorly difficult but weight is much harder so often there has been some strategic removal or embellishment to get the weights closer. Those that really can successfully juggle disparate objects with large differentials for any length of time are much rarer than the public realizes.
My point being that all indications are that drawing this out is really just showing Israel and especially Trump dropping ball after ball as new and added balls each gets larger, of different material and heavier. Just as they “misunderestimated” both Iran’s resolve and capability, they are overestimating how much distraction they can provide from their increasing losses. In Trump’s case, he had better hope there is no significant loss of ground forces.
So while I don’t disagree with you as to the why they may do this, I actually believe that it will take them even less time to realize they should have taken the humiliating climb down than it took them to recognize they had been wrong to attack. Unfortunately the destruction will be far greater and consequences vast and long lasting.
What an amazing, clever metaphor! Thank you.
Starting at 55:45 Ivan Karamazov explains the mechanics of “The Gamble”. He was the GOAT of multi-object juggling – and he’d still get pied.
https://youtu.be/IAE64Ozlif0?si=Losmrv4DTz7R3Wlg
I agree. I copied Pat’s comment and saved it as a text file “CleverMetaphor.txt”.
Thank you Pat!
Judge Nap w/Mearshimer just reported 50,000 infantry are on their way to the middle east. There is no safe staging ground – it took the US many months of unmolested staging in Saudi Arabia before the Iraq war.
Mearshimer: There is no viable ground option.
Me: That are unviable ground operations.
A separate potential use of ground forces from a commenter on sonar21 (Ismaele) – to help Israel in Lebanon. Still not politically or militarily viable, but supply lines are more sustainable.
That would, according to Mr. Google, be somewhere from 2/3rds to “almost all” of the infantry available to the US Army. I can’t wait to get home from work and look for the video,* this should be interesting. Are they taking their toys with them? The ones that did so well (*cough*) against Russian drone warriors?
The Iraqis couldn’t do it to Iran with … a quarter million or so, but the US is going to do it with 20% of that???
“Unviable ground operations” is being gentle in the terminology.
*thanks for the headsup!
> Are they taking their toys with them?
Something I’ve been wondering about. I believe one of the colonels mentioned in passing that the Gulf states have bought billions of arms from the U.S. but don’t have the armed forces to use them. Perhaps that was always part of the plan, ie, they pay for the pre-positioning of equipment to be used by the American military?
Possible, but I seem to recall early on seeing a lot of desert-camo toys-with-treads and toys-with-wheels in the Ukraine, along with stories about how many of the desert-camo toys that were PLANNED for the Ukraine were utterly unserviceable due to crap maintenance while stored.
After the first Gulf war the USV prepositioned a lot of equipment in Kuwait . I don’t know if they still do .
Not sure, but rumors are that they are sending a lot of special forces troops which I’m guessing aren’t tallied as part of the regular infantry.
Iran can defeat those troops by leaving 50K booby trapped little bags of white powder lying around. Word on the street is that Delta Force can’t operate without a little bump – https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/01/10/more-dozen-special-operations-soldiers-center-of-drug-trafficking-probe.html
Sending American ground forces to help Israel achieve it’s greater Israel project per Huckabee’s approval seems more likely than using them to invade or attack Iran.
50,000?! What is the staging area, Kuweit, Pakistan? I really don’t think so. Across the Gulf? Are they going to swim to Iran? Ride dolphins?
Turkiye?
could be only the 82 brigade, coming by plane, maybe, but not the marines. And They are even fewer than the famous 10,000 which performed the Anabasis.
Okay. Watched the video, fun as always, but that said …
Judge Nap just seems to pull the “50,000 troops” out of thin air, with no attribution. I have not seen (granted, with only a cursory look and open to correction) that number mentioned anywhere else. Seems to still be ~5k Marines and maybe ~3k Airborne.
https://youtu.be/1jstl3GhAYg?t=1307
This was the story behind most steps in the series of escalations in Vietnam. They weren’t steps toward winning, but to stave off the immediate deterioration that was happening without escalation.
Now that Iran is charging a toll to approved ships passing the Straight. Does any one know how/if that affects the insurance market? Could it be oil starts flowing through again just to Iran friendly countries if Iran would allow that?
Good point. You may end up with a two-tier insurance system. Those ships that the Iranians give a sailing pass will be able to be insured by London or elsewhere. All other ships though are all out of luck.
I imagine the idea of an outcome where only the Iran-friendly are allowed to pass, toll or not, is causing team z heads to explode.
Life’s a bicce sometimes.
I saw what you did there! I loved the aeon piece on the word Bitch. Sent it to several friends, “Read this and thought of you!” /sarc
At which point Team Z begins sinking all traffic that Iran does approve for passage, causing the rest of the world’s heads to explode in anger directed at Team Z.
I have this on my bingo card. That if Iran has a viable business model in tolling the Strait, Trump will revenge-toll the Gulf of Oman to exact tribute from shippers (probably from any non-US party). Remember, the closure of the Strait is, in relative terns, good for the USA. Somebody has to sell the world plastic nurdles and fertiliser, at eye-watering prices.
So, maybe the troops are to take the Oman in order to stage this interdiction operation…?
I do hope the Sultan has not permitted the marines to replenish their stocks there, that’s a guest that may not leave! Franco also refused to allow Hitler “passage” through Spain for this reason….
Probably elsewhere, because the Europeans are still high on sanctions. Thus paying Iran will mean joining the shadow fleet.
The definition of a ship of the ‘shadow fleet’. A ship not insured by London.That is it.
I assume this has been addressed earlier somewhere but since it strikes me every single day:
While until this war European establishment media (and US too, I assume?) claimed by default whatever Trump would say that he was lying, was fabricating and so on – that we could not believe a single word he would utter – now – all of a sudden – what that same administration voices in public is being reported without any doubts the “normal” way just like with the “normal” administrations before.
In that regard there appears to be a hierarchy of derangement syndromes where TDS is only average in its evilness. There are worse:
There is e.g. PDS, now IDS, HDS1, HDS2, NKDS, a covert XDS – thus in general an AoEDS (Axis of Evil Derangement Syndrome). The only syndrome waiting to be diagnosed is MDS (Modi Derangement Syndrome). And who knows, if Lula is not careful we might discover LDS one fine day.
Perhaps Trump likes this state – to once in a while not be called a liar all the time – and keeps this war on as to enjoy the temporary warm shower at least from Europe…
A great example is this article from CNN where they assume Trump is telling the truth about meeting with an Iranian leader and handwave away the Iranian denials – https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/world/iran-trump-talks-us-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-intl
Excellent comment — thank you!
Some MSMs
1. Why Iran’s Shahed cheap, deadly drones have done the U.S. a favor (WaPo, archived)
Basically saying what I said here a couple of weeks ago that this war will strongly benefit Palantir/Anduril as the defence procurement spigot gets rerouted into their gullets.
Among other things, we will surely (?) see a radical change in the US military when we get to the other side of this abject failure.
2.Trump’s Ultimatum to Iran Was Almost Up. Then He Found an Offramp. (NYT opinion, archived)
Round up of leaks and briefings which doesn’t really believe in itself. Has contradictory claims about communication with Araghi.
3.The secret talks pushing America and Iran towards peace (Telegraph)
This was my favourite as it starts with a breathless retelling of the secret talks then halfway through just gives up and starts calling it bs. It’s like the writer(s) just broke.
4. In their game of chicken, Trump and Iran tap the brakes at last (WaPo, archived)
Ignatius just phoning it in.
5. Netanyahu: Potential Iran deal touted by Trump would protect Israel’s ‘vital interests’ (Times of Israel)
Bibi with the desperate expectation management.
Israeli officials assess that if a deal is reached, it would be expected to align with Israel’s core war objectives, Channel 12 reported, quoting one source as saying that Trump “remembers who stood with him in battle.”
According to the news outlet, Israel is now working to ensure that the terms of a potential agreement will meet its demands, prioritizing an end to Iran’s nuclear program and strict limits on uranium enrichment. Regime change, the report said, is viewed as a less central goal, though Israel will likely claim to have created the necessary conditions for one.
Another source added that, as in the previous ceasefire deal with Iran, which ended the 12-day war in June 2025, Netanyahu is expected to be involved in shaping any final agreement to end this round of fighting.
At the same time, Israeli sources cautioned that a successful deal from Jerusalem’s perspective would effectively require Iran to surrender, with one source expressing skepticism that an agreement was currently within reach. And even if a deal was reached, the source said, there was doubt that Iran would even honor it.
BP: They are asking for exactly what Iran already offered before the war. They won’t get it. Bolded section is low-key hilarious.
Thanks. Unfortunately, links to 3 & 5 don’t work (are empty). I think this might by Yahoo republishing the Telegraph article:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/secret-talks-pushing-america-iran-234941827.html
Thanks! Corrected links below:
3.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/03/23/secret-talks-iran-trump-deal/
5. https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-potential-iran-deal-touted-by-trump-would-protect-israels-vital-interests/
They are asking for exactly what Iran already offered before the war. . . . low-key hilarious.
It’s even more hilarious and sick that they are not even “asking” – they are just floating this for public consumption (via presstitudes) because they aren’t actually talking with anyone on the other side!!
And they don’t seem to care how Iran is going to read this. So they really aren’t serious about peace talks at all.
IMHO that’s because the ultimate – and nonnegotiable – objective is regime change and subjugation of Iran. I think the Iranians know this.
This all seems like they’re negotiating with themselves!
It took years to get there in Ukraine and only 25 days for Iran.
Well done!
Netanyahu is whistling in the wind. While much emphasis on Trump et al, there are possibly other, less considered variables in play – 1) Sunni ayatollahs and think tanks have issued fatwas against Israel’s role in Gaza, operations against Iran – religious duty to oppose Israel. Has potential for additional destabilization across the middle east 2) Jordan is a potential powder keg – 50 to 75% Palestinian 3) Coordination between known players of the Axis of Resistance is evident (Ansar Allah, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraqi resistance) but, given the intricate planning, technology transfers, et al is it not beyond consideration that there are other powerful players with grudges to bear against the feckless Israel (particularly since the genocide of Gaza) who are waiting to move onstage? Israel is not only vulnerable from history, political and military status but also as regards their geography, surrounded by nations attempting to rule populations with issues – becomes exponentially a problem with Sunni and Shia both, not just proscribing Israel, but rendering opposition a high religious duty.
US ground forces….
Special forces, airborne infantry, and a pair of USMC ARG’s….
Consider they may be used to prop up UAE or secure Riyadh. Or possibly help out in west Syria against PMC advances to oust US from Iraq.
About the C-17 flow, those with C-5 mostly haul materiel. The troops would be brought in with civil reserve AF passenger aircraft.
That said Trump could do a Churchill and reenact Gallipoli.
About the C-17 flow, those with C-5 mostly haul materiel. The troops would be brought in with civil reserve AF passenger aircraft.
Yes, most were brought in via contract-carriers during other conflicts– no reason to expect this to change– exceptions being certain small and very specialized units… it’s sort of like regular mail vs. FedEx.
Which would be worse:
Doing a Churchill and reenacting Gallipoli, or
Doing a Churchill and reenacting Dieppe?
I think the latter.
We visited the Princess Pats museum near Calgary around the turn of the century and Dieppe was largely a Canadian gig and quite the massacre.
A docent there was a POW as a result of it, and Canadian troops carried rope to tie up captured Germans with, and in turning the tables, he and others were forced to have their hands tied with the very same rope while in captivity for around 6 months, he related.
Worse, that led to “retaliations” where both sides were tying up POWs from other occasions just for the sake of form. Led to a lot of bad feelings and even POW camp riots (see the Battle of Bowmanville). Pretty striking since Canadian POW camp guards developed excellent rapport with their charges in general…
If you have ever been to Dieppe, one look at the geography and you’ll be wondering, WTF? I mean, it’s patently ridiculous.
“That said Trump could do a Churchill and reenact Gallipoli.”
Or a Dieppe. Or at best a Narvik.
Thank you for your sobering documentation of the insanity in progress.
Are we really happy
With this lonely end game we play?
Looking for the right words to say
Searching but not finding understanding anyway
We’re lost in this war masquerade
Both afraid to say we’re just too far away
From being close together from the start
We tried to talk it over but lying words got in the way
We’re lost inside this lonely game we play
Thoughts of leaving disappear
Each time I hear your lies
And no matter how hard I try
To understand the reason why we carry on this way
We’re lost in this masquerade
We tried to talk it over but lying words got in the way
We’re lost inside this lonely game we play
Thoughts of leaving reappear
Each time I hear your lies
And no matter how hard I try
To understand the reason why we carry on this way
We’re lost in a masquerade
We’re lost in a masquerade
(and we’re lost in a war masquerade)
This Masquerade, performed by the Carpenters
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GChYjK8rIk&list=RD5GChYjK8rIk
Clearing throat noises…….Written by the one and only Master of Space and Time, Leon Russell
Yes, the Rock ‘n Roll Hall of Fame Leon Russell. (It’s a favorite piano play of mine.)
I get that Trump’s lie about “talks with Iran” yesterday was done both to calm markets temporarily and give insiders with advance knowledge an opportunity to make lots of money, but I can’t for the life of me understand why anyone still believes him at this point. I know you’ve included links and commentary about how there’s a kind of information bubble around top American executives and investors, but how bad can it be that so little reality is getting through? Most signs seem to point to this “5 day extension” as stalling just long enough for the stock market to close on Friday and ground operations to begin. If they go very badly, as experts seem to unanimously expect, I don’t see how Trump talks his way out of that one next week.
I suppose that makes the real question, when does the market capitulate and accept that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is here to stay, the Trump admin has lost control of the situation, and whatever version of MENA exists after this conflict is over will be radically different than the one we are accustomed to?
It’s obvious in the France24 video that the presenter is chuckling about the Trump clip when she switches off to the subject matter expert. I wish the media would stop trying to translate his crazy into rational talking points, and just say it’s family bloggin’ made up stuff and that he’s obviously unhinged.
Some wag posted a tweet a couple days ago:
thats pretty much kystall and sagaar for the last 3 weeks,lol.
My SWAG is that since everyone “knows” how the market will respond to Trump droppings, they bet it will react that way, and then it does. Until it doesn’t. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
AS to Trump and ground force losses – he will say its all lies by the media, AI, etc. etc. etc. Will Mr. Market accept droppings as reality after initial losses – probably. I would not put it past Bessent to intervene in the market at key times after words come out of Trump’s mouth to start motion.
However, Iran is not fighting a strategic war to win or lose the US market. They are fighting an actual military strategy where reality will be determined on the ground (and in the world’s economies) and reality always asserts itself eventually.
Well, to be fair Galligula has had much success as 5-Day-Suit-Broker in court, so there’s hope.
My take now is that it’s not so much that markets are out of touch with reality but that their primary reality is markets, and there is too much money to be made between now and an irruption of the “real reality” of natural resources being impacted, the coming shutdowns of LNG, Naptha for plastics, the shutdown of fertilizer that is going to impact food prices, supply chains getting whacked, etc. etc.
Trita and Iranian oil sales.
Let me guess: EU is not buying Iranian oil because they shut down the INSTEX in 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_in_Support_of_Trade_Exchanges
All grim news this morning. So if it is truly boots on the ground will Congress finally take a vote of authorization? If Trump, or any president, can use the armed forces as his private would be conquest army then where’s the end of it?
Absolutely not…congress won’t touch this with a 10ft pole. They want to do their best to ring-fence the debacle as trump’s and trump’s ALONE.
Everyone in congress has now adopted the favorite team dem strategy of feigned powerlessness, all the time. They want the war, but not the political fallout from it. They finally found a president dumb enough to take the bait.
I can only hope voters will punish incumbents for their fecklessness. But, it’s very hard to do when fecklessness is agreed by all parties involved and no one is articulating a different approach.
This is the truth. Most, although not all, Dems wanted this Iran war as much as Trump but they’re glad to let him take all the heat. Don’t get me wrong, I have zero sympathy whatsoever for this administration, but you would have to be deaf, dumb, and blind not to notice that AIPAC gives plenty of Dems lots of money and many of them are just as invested in going to war for them.
With the Dems there’d have been a lot more shrill, asinine rhetoric about this being about liberating the Iranian people and human rights. If there’s any silver lining it’s that we didn’t have to endure a six month media blitz pedaling that canard this time around.
I view Congress as sort of a Gene Wilder Willie Wonka – murmuring a sotto voce “Wait. Stop. Don’t.” as opposed to actual opposition. Let Trump take the risks and the blame when it fails. They’ve got portfolios to manage and money to make. “Performing Their Constitutional Duties” is for suckers.
Seems to me that Presidents have been using the armed forces as their private armies at least as far back as Korea – even further back if you count things like the Indian Wars, Banana Wars, and various colonial suppression conflicts and Central American interventions, so it’s not really something new that can be totally blamed on Trump alone.
Not that I’m defending The Great Bluffoon – but at the moment, at least, he’s gotten fewer Americans killed than, say, Truman or Johnson. Probably well ahead than most on economic disruption, though.
In defense of Eisenhower, after getting elected and before taking office, he took a tour of Korea and decided the war there was unwinnable, and closed it down on taking office.
But then he understood war and had some sense of responsibility. Neither of those applies here.
There was never a congressional Authorized Use of Military Force vote in 2014/2015 when the US illegally invaded Syria and built physical bases in Kurdish-controlled areas. That invasion relied on a loose interpretation of the AUMF from the Iraq war IIRC. The US putting boots on the ground in a foreign country against the will of their government is not unprecedented.
Looks like Donnie may have a bypass. Off the top $2.5T to his specially administrated fund in Panama. Followed by another $2.5T for the long haul. Donnie has an aptitude for knowing when and where to put the squeeze on. Does anyone doubt that this is his MO? He is probably telling the GCC, “Pay me now, or pay the Iranians later.” The boy is clearly demented, but he will never lose his monumental and finely honed gift for the grift.
With luck this doesn’t take a ton of capacity offline: https://apnews.com/article/refinery-explosion-texas-coast-60ecf6d9a70a2f1d5494fb8e38a84c4a
i expect the loons to immediately cry, “iranian sleepers”…but it looks like haste, to me.
rushing in a new mixture or too rapidly attempting the ramp up capacity.
perhaps even human error due to exhaustion.
this happens from time to time, even without war(see:texas city,lol)…but the pressure on refiners has got to be something, right about now.
Another in Australia, but fertilizer. Events like this may not be unusual, but their effects will be greater. https://thedeepdive.ca/yara-pilbara-shutdown-halts-australias-largest-fertiliser-input-plant-for-two-months/
Not just from these, but the cumulative effect of so many other facilities being damaged or closed. In the US we have lost a lot of processing capacity over the last several years. Biden’s term was a blood bath for processing facilities. So many fires and explosions. Now, that wasn’t his fault. But it happened on his watch and it brought us to where we are.
Trump’s lamentations after the fact are further proof no one expected this conflict to last more than a few days.
Trump wants a deal with Iran but success of talks unlikely, Israeli officials say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-wants-deal-with-iran-success-talks-unlikely-israeli-officials-say-2026-03-24/
Lebanon declares Iranian envoy persona non grata, orders him to leave country
The diplomatic step comes as Lebanon faces mounting challenges from the ongoing war, including widespread displacement and repeated IDF evacuation warnings across southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rkr9fxgjzx
After more than a decade, I have to say I am so I am so sick and tired of hearing this word ‘deal’ used incessantly in reference to Trump. Governments make treaties, or agreements, or have understandings. Monty Hall makes deals.
Why do so many (not you Ann, the corporate media) just capitulate in the face of Trump’s degradation of the language and go along with his low brow terminology? Rage against the dying of the light!
I now demand that all the kids get off my lawn.
What you say is entirely true. Business people make deals, not politicians. To Donny, everything is a business transaction which is why he is so bad at it.
Turkey Mulls Tapping $135 Billion Gold Reserves for Lira Defense
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/turkey-mulls-tapping-135-billion-gold-reserves-for-lira-defense
Iran Hits Amazon Web Services Building In Bahrain, Triggers Power Disruption & Structural Damages
https://www.freepressjournal.in/tech/iran-hits-amazon-web-services-building-in-bahrain-triggers-power-disruption-structural-damages
Considering how Trump keeps saying that he’s completely destroyed Iran’s everything there sure are a lot of missiles and drones that keep coming. It reminds me of the line from the Princess Bride, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means”
Or better:
Or: “Never go in against a
SicilianPersian when death is on the line!”Drones of unusual size? I dont think they exist…
BOOM!
West Asia is different! The climate is dryer and the language Americans don’t speak and culture they don’t understand is Persian, not Vietnamese nor Korean…..
Oh wait. Afghanistan.
Never mind… ;-)
Or, as The Economist put it:
Waiting on a Sunday afternoon
For what I read between the lines
Your lies
Feeling like a hand in rusted shame
So do you laugh or do you cry?
Reply?
Leaving on a runaway train
Only yesterday you lied
Promises of what seemed to be
Only watched the time go by
All of these things you said to me
Believing you is the hardest thing to do
With all you’ve said and all that’s dead for you
You lied
Goodbye
Leaving on a runaway train
Only yesterday you lied
Promises of what seemed to be
Only watched the time go by
All of these things said by you
Interstate Love Song, by Stone Temple Pilots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe7m1VzD2Fk&list=RD5GChYjK8rIk&index=5
Japanese ‘soldier’ breaks into Chinese embassy and threatens to kill diplomats
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/japanese-soldier-breaks-chinese-embassy-091412895.html?guccounter=1
Chinese Publication Claims U.S. Has Two Months of Rare Earths Left
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinese-Publication-Claims-US-Has-Two-Months-of-Rare-Earths-Left.html
Iran warns war won’t end without compensation, guarantees
In a televised address on Monday, Mohsen Rezaei, the senior military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, set out conditions for ending hostilities, saying Iran would not step back without what he described as full accountability.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-demands-compensation-sanctions-relief-guarantees-amid-us-war-talks-2886129-2026-03-24
Chinese Foreign Ministry statement on the incident
Of course na ga happen.
China is mapping the ocean floor as it prepares for submarine warfare with the U.S.
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/china-is-mapping-ocean-floor-it-prepares-submarine-warfare-with-us-2026-03-24/
British destroyer arrives in Cyprus
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1298976/british-destroyer-arrives-in-cyprus/
Lol, that is almost a very dry joke. China is mapping ocean floor with British destroyers.
Shouldn’t that joke be very wet? Ocean floor is a very watery place. :P
re: background on Gen. McMaster
I am not saying this is untrue due to the source. But McMaster is a huge fraud. He was supposed to renew the Army which he failed to do and worse he was involved in mistreating Iraqi POWs as per this piece (courtesy of Martyanov):
Trump’s National Security Advisor challenged over human rights record
Iraqi detainees in Gen H.R. McMaster’s custody were treated in an inhuman fashion bordering on torture in 2005, according to a U.S. Military Police officer.
https://www.univision.com/univision-news/united-states/trumpss-national-security-advisor-challenged-over-human-rights-record
“In an exclusive interview with Univision Investiga Claudio alleged that McMaster violated the human rights of hundreds of detained Iraqis in 2005.”
“(…) McMaster greeted him rudely, he said.
“What came out of his mouth was basically ‘I don’t know what the f*** you’re doing here. But I want you to leave as soon as possible,’” Claudio recalled.
He said he told McMaster that if he found anything illegal he was instructed to “take your ass back in handcuffs, period.”
“There’s levels of torture and for me that was torture,” he said. “I mean how can you go ahead and handcuff a person next to each other, for days, let them defecate, let them urinate over themselves, don’t [let them] take a shower, don’t feed them?”(…)”
It is interesting to read Martyanov´s blog because initially about 10 years ago he “fell”, as he states, for the McMaster myth. To then look into what was truly behind the veil.
Not nice, by any measure…
McMaster´s “legend” seems to originate with a book he wrote as PhD about the Vietnam War lies as Andrew Bacevich in AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE wrote 2017 in a piece about McMaster:
“(…)
McMaster’s reputation as a thinker does not derive from his expressed views on matters of basic policy. Instead, it rests almost entirely on a book that he published as a young officer nearly two decades ago. The book (now once more rocketing to the top of the Amazon rankings) is called Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Lies That Led to Vietnam. Based on the dissertation that McMaster wrote pursuant to earning a PhD in history at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, it remains today one of the most important books ever written about that benighted conflict—a savage indictment of dishonesty among top U.S. civilian and military leaders during the 1960s.
(…)
Through an ironic twist of fate, McMaster now finds himself called upon to fill the role of blunt, candid truth-teller for his generation of military officers—and to do so while serving a commander-in-chief who gives little evidence of valuing those qualities. Yet circumstances demand more than mere straight talk. Only by transcending the role of “military strategist” will General McMaster succeed in doing what duty plainly requires: identifying a course that leads away from permanent war and imparts to what remains of U.S. grand strategy a semblance of coherence.(…)”
The Duty of General McMaster
As he takes charge of U.S. grand strategy, he must be a blunt, candid truth-teller.
Febr. 2017
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-duty-of-general-mcmaster/
p.s. The short TWITTER video snippet with McMaster does not really express the idea of a WWIII. It doesn´t mean IDF is not attacking RU vessels or that it´s a good thing. But it doesn´t mean WWIII. Remember this is Russia. (Were it US vessels targeted CBS would not even mention or present a lie).
In general by now I must assume nothing presented by these sources can be trusted. Maybe it´s true, maybe not, maybe to 30% or 5%.
Yes, what he said (Chinese ships, I di3nt know if they will get there; Russia supplying drones across Caspian and the attacks on Iran’s Caspian fleet interrupt this) did not disclose US attacks on Russia or China. Doesn’t mean they haven’t or wont but that clip is no smoking gun.
It remains unclear whether the attacks occurred before or after US President Donald Trump announced an extension of his ultimatum to Iran and instructed the Department of War not to target energy infrastructure.
Without any special knowledge, it appears that the US does not want to damage infrastructure in Iran, probably due to plans to take over Iranian resources, and partly due to damage to GCC. Israel doesn’t care. I fully expect Israel to make infrastructure attacks whether the US wants them to or not, as the US has no demonstrated capability of reining them in. I wouldn’t be surprised if these were Israeli strikes, because I don’t see how it serves US interests to escalate to infrastructure strikes, given the impact to Gulf States and Mr. Market. On the other hand, Israel wants maximum escalation to ensure full commitment of the US to a ground war in Iran.
Israel needs US refueling to reach Iran. They also need clearance not to be shot down by the US. They CANNOT attack without US approval (at some level). As to whether the people who appear on TV claiming to be in charge of the US side of the war are in charge is unclear (trending not). It is clear that Iran is controlling the war (is inside the US OODA loop).
I have a question that I don’t see addressed in much of the news coverage: To what extent does Iran view their bombing of adjacent countries (outside of Israel) as limited, because they would be bombing fellow Muslims (even if of different sects), and would not want to be seen as killing co-religionists?
Given that there are only a few official Iranian outlets, and that Iran has been so throughly demonized for so long, outsiders are not in a great position to answer this question. Recall that when President Pezeshian made an off-handed remark about not wanting to harm neighbors, Trump leaped on it as an admission of weakness. Later, non-Iran-hostile commentators opined that Pezeshian was referring to actual neighbors, as in countries with which Iran shared a border, and not the Gulf states.
Nevertheless, let me speculate a tad. When Russia started the SMO, Putin did not seem to be alone in not wanting to hurt a fraternal people. Many Russians have relatives in Ukraine. But as the war progressed, public sentiment against Ukraine has hardened greatly, to the degree that Putin has become almost isolated as a moderating force.
Arabs may be broadly co-religionists, but Iraq entered into a bloody, long war with Iran shortly after its revolution. Arabs are tribal while Persians are not. So there is already less baseline cultural commonality than with Russia and Ukraine.
It seems Iranian attitudes have also hardened since this war started. I don’t know how much is due to the fact of the war, and in particular the murder of the ~170 schoolgirls, versus the more hardline Mojtaba Khamenei having become Supreme Leader.
Seyed Marandi is not an official spokesperson but I don’t think he would ever stray far from government views.
See some recent tweets about the Gulf States. He has become much more bloody-minded:
And this:
As translated by Twitter:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi is one of my heroes. May he live long.
“Arab/Sunni family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf” are roughly equal to the US installed “presidents” in Saigon before 1973. They are in place at the desires of the US, especially now.
Iran targets within the domain of Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf are aimed at US bases and US corporate interests.
With the quality of planning we’ve seen from Iran, I’m wondering the they deliberately instrumentalized the water shortage in the months leading up to the war to de-populate Tehran and normalize a scarcity mentality.
Further to that, maybe there is some element of truth when Netanyahu claimed that Mossad misinformed him about the fragility of Iran by virtue of themselves being misinformed. Was Israeli intelligence played by Iranian intelligence? I am reminded of the Guaido episode, where (IIRC) the US believed they had high-level defectors in the Venezuelan military who turned out to have been deceiving them. Something about “appear strong where you are weak, and weak where you are strong”.
Regarding the deployments to Ovda and the Jordanian bases, part of me wonders if these troops aren’t intended instead to replace Israeli troops in Gaza so they can be freed to head north; I have no idea if there are sufficient numbers involved or if this is otherwise practicable, though. Regardless, I am curious how sound the missile defenses around Ovda are at the moment.
I notice we are suddenly seeing A LOT of mentions of the Lesser-Spotted JD Vance.
Not that I expect much to come from the current peace mutterings, but it’s noticeable that he is beginning to be portrayed as the sensible pair-of-hands that will eventually fix Trump’s mess.
Definitely no-one outside the US wants anything to do with Witkoff.
JD is becoming Presidential looking (half /sarc).
One of many examples:
JD Vance could lead Iran peace talks for US side in Pakistan if negotiations go ahead – sources (Guardian)
FWIW he probably is the closest to a sane, competent negotiating partner in the administration.
As long as Trump is president, I doubt that anyone would put faith in JD Vance as a negotiator.
This could mean that the immediate future is being prepared for a Trump death, removal by the 25th amendment, or impeachment. It seems to me that impeachment would take way too long.
The Palant(ir)ate begins :)
The Palantirate.
Glorious coinage!
I must agree … ;-)
#Brill
I don’t think Trump’s ego would allow a would-be heir to the throne to get the glory of negotiating a cease fire.
Congress impeached him in a week after those mid-level riots in January had them quivering in their closets. But there are just brown people being killed way across the ocean, so what’s the hurry?
A JD Vance-mediated exit from the Iran war would be a way out that would benefit MAGA. Throw Trump under the bus, elevate Vance, exit the war.
A JD Vance-mediated exit
Is there any possible reason Iran would trust any US mediator?
US rep at a peace conference possibly but mediate? Seems highly unlikely.
As I was thinking about the US mediating a peace dear with Ukraine: It would be like having your father-in-law mediating your contested divorce.
They’ll have to throw Israel under the bus, too, and fo thst credibly–the latter eill be especially hard.
For a moment there I thought you were going to say JD is becoming the Presidential pardon. That was good for a brief chuckle.
So you’re saying we can’t afford and nix on the idea?
My working theory is Turkey and Pakistan are trying to construct a counter artificial reality to Mossad one embubbling our President.
Through the lens of their bubble, he’ll be able to see some of the distortions generated by the Israeli one and begin to react in ways less lethal to Turkey and Pakistan.
Of course all of this is Imperial Bedroom stuff trying to mitigate Iranian damage to the household, which appears to be considering a divorce.
Iran don’t surf and we think they should
Iran don’t surf and you know that it ain’t no good
Iran don’t surf for his Starlink model
Iran’s gonna be a regional czar
Everybody wants to rule the world
Must be something we get from birth
One truth is we never learn
Resentment will make anger burn
We’ve been told to keep the strangers out
We don’t like them starting to hang around
We don’t like them all over town
Across the world we are going to blow them down
Iran don’t surf and we think they should
Iran don’t surf and you know that it ain’t no good
Iran don’t surf for his Starlink model
Iran’s gonna be a regional czar
The reign of the super powers must be over
So many armies can’t free the earth
Soon the rock will roll over
World is choking on our MIC coda
It’s a one a way street in a one horse town
One way people starting to brag around
You can laugh, put them down
These one way people gonna blow us down
Iran don’t surf, of bullshit they’ll never learn
Iran don’t surf though they got a hunch
Iran don’t surf think that they should
Iran don’t surf we really think they should
Iran don’t surf
Iran don’t surf and we think they should
Iran don’t surf and you know that it ain’t no good
Iran don’t surf for his Starlink model
Iran don’t surf
Charlie Don’t Surf, by the Clash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFYLCj-hCsc&list=RDfFYLCj-hCsc
Between this and STP above yer just knockin’ ’em outa the park today!
If you torture the words enough-they’ll say anything.
‘Satellite footage from the Ali al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait shows the precision destruction of a drone hangar and a satellite communication antenna. The Resistance has paralyzed the U.S. drone surveillance grid and its ability to relay real-time intelligence across the region. The American drone war is being grounded at the source.’
First they came for the radar systems – and I said nothing. Then they came for the drone bases…
Joyous Ramadan.
Happy Easter!!
IDF diverts forces from Lebanon invasion to W. Bank to control Jewish violence against Palestinians
This is the first time that in the middle of a critical invasion – in this case against Hezbollah in Lebanon – IDF soldiers were diverted to what is viewed as a less dangerous front.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-890949
Exclusive: India’s Reliance buys 5 million barrels of Iranian oil after US waiver, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-reliance-buys-5-million-barrels-iranian-oil-after-us-waiver-sources-say-2026-03-24/
Britain responds to Iran war energy shock by requiring solar panels and heat pumps in all new homes
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/iran-war-britain-new-homes-solar-heat-pumps-energy-crisis.html
Saudi Prince Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls
Prince Mohammed bin Salman sees a “historic opportunity” to remake the region, according to people briefed by U.S. officials on the conversations.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/us/politics/saudi-prince-iran-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VlA.Hb0j.oIKsiSVBphRT
Are the IDF going to control Jewish violence against Palestinians? My guess is they are going to conduct Jewish violence against Palestinians. Way easier to kill an unarmed population – those Hezbollahs have guns!
At what point do the West bank Palestinians say enough is enough? I don’t know what the population ratio is, and surely they are less armed and protected than the ‘settlers’, but how much are they willing to take? What would you do in their situation?
>What would you do in their situation?
Probably get murdered by settlers who burn my olive farm and demolish my house while the rest of the world pretends it isn’t happening.
Just came across this-
“$580 million in oil bets placed moments before Trump’s Iran post – FT”
‘Oil traders placed more than half a billion dollars in bets minutes before US President Donald Trump announced “productive” talks with Iran on Monday, the Financial Times has reported.
A burst of activity followed by a sharp price drop has raised questions about possible advance knowledge among market participants.
About 6,200 Brent and WTI futures contracts changed hands between 6:49 AM and 6:50 AM in New York – a one-minute flurry worth $580 million, based on FT calculations using Bloomberg data. Volumes in both benchmarks – Brent and US West Texas Intermediate – spiked simultaneously, about 27 seconds before 6:50 AM, while S&P 500 futures surged shortly after.
The trades came roughly 15 minutes before Trump said on Truth Social there had been “productive conversations” with Tehran to end the war in Iran.’
https://www.rt.com/news/636029-oil-traders-trump-iran-post/
I am shocked, shocked that such a thing could happen.
See also: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/trumps-taco-manipulate-markets-iran-hormuz.html
I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Bessent (or someone similar) working with the president to do everything possible to keep prices as low as possible
Oman is trying desperate mediation. We know they are talking to the Iranians and likely the Americans. Whether this will bear fruit is doubtful, but we haven’t seen any Gulf States attacked so far today of course events could have overtaken this post. So that’s a short-term gain for Oman mediation.
On the subject of U.S. boots on the ground. As I have said before disputed islands of Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb and Greater Tunb are the likely targets in a joint operation between the U.S. & UAE
These are under Iranian control but are claimed by the UAE. Interestingly it’s the one territorial claim in West Asia that both the US and China recognise.
It’s an operation that comes with big risks, but the likelihood is they can be seized quickly by Special Forces. That I suspect is the easy bit. The hard bit follows.
That assumes the Iranians, have not recognized the importance of these islands and have not created (like everywhere else) underground defenses, see Hamas.
How much trouble Israel is having against Hezbollah in Lebanon could be substantial, and the forces Trump is sending to the Middle East could be headed to Lebanon to help Israel solve that problem so that Israel and the US could then focus on Iran.
People in America will love the idea of their sons and daughters dying in battle on Israel’s behalf, just so that Israel can annex some more territory.
‘LeBen’sraum’
If (a bit If) Khamenei plans to revoke the fatwa against nuclear weapons (or issue a new fatwa allowing them in certain cases – suitably nebulous to allow freedom of action), then, I would imagine they already exist so that the new fatwa will support a fait accompli.
Secondly, Asian guy says Russia delivered four S400 systems, which protect out to 400 km, specifically developed for low radar planes (stealth) and can (at 2 interceptors/target) address 250 simultaneous targets. Most importantly, this tells how deep Russian support is and the extreme strategic depth this adds to Iran against the US. I am saddened at the price Iran is playing, but the only way to deal with a bully is a punch to the face.
Seems confirmed:
https://vtforeignpolicy.com/2026/03/russias-900m-missile-system-just-landed-in-iran-america-has-no-defense-against-it/
Peppe on Nima argues Iran could prosecute the war for years (1 million dead in the Iran-Iraq war, 6 years)- with Russian and Chinese support, this is very possible. The West cannot prosecute the war for years given its MICC reliance on China (and even Russia – for titanium) and already depleted status.
Asian guy reports a US resupply ship Robert Perry was sunk with thousands of intercept missiles (worth 58 billion, a decade of production). So far Asian guy has been mostly reliable. His discussion of the attack is worth listening to,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ-gLQin4qg
This looks suspicious to me. A similar video was claiming that Ben Gurion airport was obliterated, with 70+ aircraft destroyed on the ground, around March 13
That video had the same presenter visual, but the audio was weird, as if an AI was reading a script and making mistakes (such as text “2$ – 3$ billion” being rendered into speech as “two dollars to three billion dollars”)
There is a USS Robert E Peary escort warship sunk in the Pacific in WWII. THere is currently a USNS Robert E Peary cargo ship which AFAICT has not been sunk. Could this be an AI generated story presented by an AI synthesized presenter?
No idea on how accurate these are, but maritime trackers show the Perry off the coast of Puerto Rico.
https://www.cruisingearth.com/ship-tracker/united-states-navy-military-sealift-command/usns-robert-e-perry/
Overall Asian guy (new channel every day or even every video, same style) seems mostly to be accurate and seems to have more details than generally available. Since his bent is Anti-US I wonder if he is a channel to Chinese intel. I take things with a grain of salt – however I have checked about 30% of his main topic and they have checked out from other sources – for example, he reported at one time that the US had airspace dominance, which was both untrue and irrelevant (and ancillary to the topic)
For example, he reported on undersea tunnels that can launch underwater drones days before Alistair Crooke did (who, IMO, has a 100% accuracy record and excellent sources).
Overall, though, I think the Pentagon has less truthiness than the Asian guy, so I take “no ship destroyed” also with a grain of salt. And it makes strategic sense, particularly if Iran is being fed intel by China/Russia, which monitors these (and all US naval vessels) closely. We do know the US Navy is pulling back.
Below is a link to the ‘Ben Gurion airport destroyed, 73 aircraft wrecked, March 14’ video.
It looks like the same presenter, and there is what I think is evidence in the audio stream that the audio is artificially generated from text by an algorithm that doesn’t understand what it is saying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TScz0NlV1R4
Perhaps there is a channel where this person presents reliable information and other, fake, channels are using his likeness and voice with AI generated stories and audio. Personally, I doubt that USNS Robert E Peary has been sunk.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USNS_Robert_E._Peary
A development of that magnitude would generate discernible perturbations in the news. Onboard clogged toilets and a laundry fire, kind of humiliating in US “best in the world” carriers, generated a lot of attention. Loss of a major logistics vessel would draw attention, I think.
I also find it implausible that ten years of production of scarce and precious munitions would be gathered together in one place and transported in a single vessel.
Time will tell, but I think it’s prudent to regard all sensational reports with skepticism
The video Samuel Conner refers to was the second one from this comment on 3/14 (Video unavailable). It was absolute lying shite that Janet and I wasted ten minutes of our lives watching before looking for verification. Handle with caution.
sage advice, 100% second source verification for Asian guy (he is AI) from me before further citing.
I agree with Steve H. as the guilty party. Asian guy came up in my algo feed, no sourcing, very specific information, I found something similar on CBS News (in an effort to verify) so I posted it. . . and note my comment on sourcing. I went back to try and discover sources, no success so I just started ignoring it. Sorry if people wasted their precious life over it. However, I am very curious who is behind it and what the actual sourcing is.
I’m in permamod for taking a baseball bat to a source that had bedazzled some of our brothers and sisters in critical thinking. (Is 30+ cited counter-comments too many? Maybee…) Please don’t waste a moment trying to track the source of profligate AI drek, it’s far better to hone in on sources with veracity.
Truly, the Naked Capitalism commentariat is the best commentariat.
“Big if true,” as the NC saying goes. Trying to confirm — still a bit up in the air…
https://www.qwant.com/?q=usns+robert+e.+peary
ZOMG!
Appears to have been debunked.
Oh wellie, that sort of loss would have been so bad as to perhaps throw a wrench into the ground attack plans.
Couldn’t get your link to work, but I found this – https://xcancel.com/AirPowerAsia/status/2035155146410533206
Can’t vouch for the X source, but the video it links to is a clanker propaganda account. I keep seeing that same fake Asian guy across many different youtube accounts. A second search with slightly different terms brings up the same “news” from 3 days ago, from a different youtube account but with the same fake Asian clanker. I won’t bother linking to the videos directly – no reason to give traffic to fakes.
30000 interceptor missiles seems to be an incredible claim. Assuming you could fit 100 in a crate, you would still need 300 crates. I do not know if the ship would physically have been able to fit so many, but if the US had 30000 interceptors lying around, nobody would be talking of an interceptor shortage.
Iran has not claimed that they took out this ship. If they did I missed it.
The latest # I saw is 30,000 interceptora were on board. We are in the fog of war…
Has the US even built that many interceptors?
How do 30,000 interceptors fit on one ship?
Does Israel have the leadership depth that Iran has demonstrated? If Iran could take out Netanyahu, Smotrich, Ben Gvir, Katz, Barnea, and Lapid, who could step up to take their place? If there is any way for Iran to do that, it seems like it should be a priority, as a way to try to change the rules of the game. Drones should be swarming in search of those targets, especially if the anti-air defenses are as depleted by now as predicted.
As far as diplomacy with the US, no one on the US side cares what other countries want, so they either don’t listen or intentionally misrepresent what they just heard. And they lie constantly. It’s pointless for Iran or Russia or China to bother paying attention to anything that comes out of the mouths of US or Israeli officials, via social media or otherwise. We seem to be at a dead end for any possibilities except kill or be killed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO0ReqFEjKo
This seems pretty significant. Iran seems to be growing in confidence and ambition. Not only are they collecting tolls, they’re not overtly trying to stick the Israelis back in their cage. They’re saying attacks on civilians in Lebanon and Palestine will be punished.
This is the kind of thing that gathers support from people around the region and embraces a leadership role in the region.
Rocket attack kills six Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Iraq’s Kurdistan, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/rocket-attack-kills-six-kurdish-peshmerga-fighters-iraqs-kurdistan-sources-say-2026-03-24/
Israel’s military to occupy swathe of southern Lebanon, defence minister says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-military-occupy-swathe-southern-lebanon-defence-chief-says-2026-03-24/
Israel killed two Iranian nuclear scientists in past days: Netanyahu
https://defensemirror.com/news/41367/Israel_Killed_Two_Iranian_Nuclear_Scientists_in_Past_Days__Netanyahu
India-Russia committed to increase trade to USD 100 billion: Jaishankar hails Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership
https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/india-russia-committed-to-increase-trade-to-usd-100-billion-jaishankar-hails-special-and-privileged-strategic-partnership20260323141612/
DropSite named one of the two “nuclear scientists” (maybe the second died later?). He was an electrical engineering prog, FFS.
Russia says it would be very concerned by Iran war spillover into Caspian Sea
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-it-would-be-very-concerned-by-iran-war-spillover-into-caspian-sea-2026-03-24/
Marco says war may spur energy talks with China in disputed sea
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/marcos-says-war-may-spur-energy-talks-with-china-in-disputed-sea?srnd=homepage-asia&leadSource=reddit_wall
Operation Epicurean Fury
Day 25 update:
Its a good thing Dubai Chocolate is made in Türkiye, instead of say Dubai, so I’ve been able to source some remaindered at the Grocery Outlet in Bishop for only five bucks for a decent sized bar chock full of kadayif and pistachio-tahini cream goodness.
The feeling here is that I can hold out another fortnight, perhaps longer, if hostilities continue.
FYI you can get a “normal” YouTube video from a short by appending the short ID to the regular YouTube URL, so the Mearsheimer video is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rA64pKHw8M.
US seeks $5 trillion from Gulf states to stop Iran war: Omani analyst
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/us-seeks-5-trillion-from-gulf-states-to-stop-iran-war-omani-analyst-3216750
Had that in the post, from The Cradle, story from March 20.
Tehran charges some ships Hormuz transit fees for safe passages
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/iran-charges-some-ships-hormuz-transit-fees-for-safe-passage?leadSource=reddit_wall
NASA to spend $20 billion on moon base, cancel orbiting lunar station
https://www.reuters.com/science/nasa-cancel-orbiting-lunar-station-build-moon-base-instead-2026-03-24/
Lebanon declares Iran’s ambassador-designate persona non grata, gives him until Sunday to leave
The decision comes after a week of meetings between Lebanese officials and other leaders from the region, many of whom have been on the receiving end of Iranian attacks.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891031
Politics of Lebanon, as if it wasn’t before, seems utterly confusing, thrashing about in all directions. These people fo realize thst they are being invaded by Israelis who have made their intention to steal their land and resources and kill or drive away large number of their countrymen?
Carsie Blanton and The Burning Hell have released a chipper song about hyper-normality in the US:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhZkPRtc4Go
That cheered me up. A little. Thanks
On the nuclear issue, Col. Macgregor, in an appearance on MOAT, voices his suspicion that Putin has warned Netanyahu if Israel nukes Iran then Russia will do likewise to Israel. If true, and given the utter obduracy of the Israelis, nuclear war must be regarded as an increasingly credible threat.
I have extreme doubts this is the case. For one, there are close to a million former Russians in Israel today, many of whom still hold Russian passports. Wiping out large sections of Jewish population in Israel would also look very dissonant to the present anti-Nazi propaganda tack in both foreign and domestic spheres.
Finally, last year it was Pakistan that made noises along the lines of – a nuclear attack on Iran will prompt Pakistani retaliation against Israel. Both Iran and Pakistan also happen to be China’s clients, at least to some extent…
…also, too. You do not need a nuclear strike to make Israel less than habitable. Destroy the 7-8 fossil fuel power plants, destroy Dimona, destroy the refineries and water purification plants. A thousand conventional missiles just might accomplish all of this, since at that point Iran would hardly hold back as big a reserve as they seem to have now. To be honest, this might be the biggest factor holding Israel back at the moment – if they knew that Iran couldn’t retaliate at scale with conventional weapons, well, moral scruples aren’t exactly this regime’s most defining characteristic.
Israel has not been treating them well of late:
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-824003
And I have to tell you that a lot of Russian came to Thailand to avoid serving in the SMO. I met one personally and I hardly get around. So it also isn’t clear that all Russians in the diaspora are seen as deserving of protection. But to your point, Putin is very very Jewish-friendly. If Medvedev were President, the behavior might be different.
That was an interesting article. Right on cue,
Thomas Keith
@iwasnevrhere_
38m
Ziv Agmon, former Unit 8200 operative, Netanyahu’s acting chief of staff and spokesman, is being pushed out. He turned down the UAE ambassador post and is now being repositioned into another senior role. This is unfolding as leaks circulate of racist remarks attributed to him targeting Moroccan Jews.
I’m thankful Putin has been nice to the West.*
I hope he gives Americans enough time to regime change their economic system.
*Im assuming he’s being nice to Jews and by extension the Israelis, because he knew how cutthroat the Israelis are.
unless Russia detonated an EMP nuke over Israel. Assuming it worked as some believe (there has never been a real test), would lead to Dimona meltdown and a cessation of dealinization, but would also stop missile launches (and jet fighters in Israel). Bullets would still work.
I think Israel is within Oreshnik range of the European parts of Russia. A strike on key civilian infrastructure could be threatened with conventional weapons and, over time, do as much damage as a non-conventional strike.
Fascinating insight into mindset of financial elites on Iran War, if Economist is anything to go by. Is the myopia over Israeli war crimes a result of Zionist conviction, career opportunism, PMC cynicism or brutal self-deception? Certainly interesting to see Tucker Carlson make squirm Economist editor Zanny Minton Beddoes (me neither): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tox2hr4dddM
I will watch but recall seeing her before….a real piece of work.
But the Economist is much more British establishment than financial elites.
Point taken!
If this matters
The Economist Newspaper Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Economist Group. Sir Evelyn Robert de Rothschild was chairman of the company from 1972 to 1989.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist
however
https://www.reuters.com/business/rothschild-family-sell-entire-stake-economist-axios-reports-2025-10-07/
I listened to Postol talk about this in some depth recently. He has spent much of his career evaluating, and ultimately debunking, the technology of shooting down modern missiles in flight. Aside from earning the professional cold shoulder of much of the establishment with this unwelcome message, he has concluded that the entire anti-missile technology is strictly a con and has been for many decades, with typical shoot-down rates in practice of only a few percent at most. The numbers are of course getting worse with hypersonic and maneuverable missiles, which are in practice impossible to hit.
It’s amazing how at odds with reality, then, is most of the political discussion we see among even very senior analysts and media commentators, who politely talk about 90% shoot down rates, and the disaster it will be if someone or other runs out of anti-missile missiles.
It gets harder and harder to take anything seriously in the last 20 years.
Perhaps the purpose of these technologies is not their stated purpose, but to create ways to stimulate top-line GDP numbers without causing too much prosperity in the general population. If the population becomes insufficiently desperate in its struggle for subsistence, it might have time to think about ways of improving the governance system.
Main use case was for a low number of ballistic missiles, like Iraq firing off Scud missiles or pre-nuclear North Korea.
Something was making rounds on social media the other day about US ballistic missile defense doctrine having a psychological aspect. I’m not 100% sure the validity of the claims, but they line up. Supposedly they intentionally over report interceptions and under report damage as an aspect of deterrence. This is supposed to undermine the threat’s confidence in their ability to achieve their intended goals through missile threats or attacks. It is supposed to reduce chances of hostile escalations and cause hesitation when they believe the attacks will not succeed.
This was written specifically for rogue actors who have limited missile inventories or ISR capabilities in order to observe the damage, neither of which are true for Iran. This also explains why the US vassals in the region like Bahrain were trying to enact the death penalty for publishing videos of damage to the US bases.
Toll-booth progressing. Still not many tankers passing (and some are Iranian anyway) but it definitely seems to be on the increase.
‘Zombie’ tankers take Tehran Toll Booth route as more vessels make detour (Lloyd’s List)
[Excerpts]:
Analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence data reveals that at least 16 vessels have transited the strait since Friday. Thirteen vessels headed east out of the Middle East Gulf, while three entered westbound.
On Monday, two India-flagged very large gas carriers transited, signalling their Indian ownership via their AIS signal — a trend that is increasingly prevalent among Indian and some China affiliated vessels.
Increasing use of the new route appears to have been bolstered by diplomatic agreements made between Iran and other states
India’s Ministry of Shipping said the two ships, carrying over 92,600 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas, had transited and are scheduled to reach ports in the country between March 26 and 28.
More detail in article.
I didn’t see this mentioned elsewhere, but Nima had a good interview with John Helmer this morning. Interesting information about Russia’s and China’s recent statements on the conflict.
https://www.youtube.com/live/qc8vYcD_dtM?si=yLg2OYidgj9pno1h
Latest Trump gas-lighting (from Aljazeera Liveblog):
This is insulting to the Iranians, and even more so because it comes after a number of other insults and atrocities like: 1) attacking during peace negotiations; 2) the missile attack on the girls school; and 3) not providing aid to drowning sailors.
Insults and humiliation seems to be built-in to “the plan”. And that signals (I believe) an intent for regime change and complete subjugation. Nothing less than total victory is acceptable to the Epstein Regime.
That means talk of “off-ramps” is just hopium, and leads to questions like:
I’m not sure if even a global depression would stop Trump-Netanyahu’s ‘holy war’ against Iran. So what does Iran have to do? Sink a carrier? Reliably shoot down planes? Make Israel uninhabitable?
Trump is 100% correct. Iran means business and they want peace. That means that they won’t settle for a meaningless ceasefire but will dismantle american and israeli presence in the middle east.
I know some have concerns about Doctrow, but this interview with Glen Diesen, as it relates to Russia and Chinese aid to Iran in concerning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJE1OqaKEv8
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this.
Craig Tindale recently outlined (March 23) what he calls Iran’s electrical infrastructure.
He focuses on twelve nodes.
https://open.substack.com/pub/ctindale/p/decoding-trump-on-irans-electrical?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Tindale is turning into a supersource of insight. Substack 8 months old, only older NC sighting I find was Links 6/28/12 (via Steve Keen). Who is this guy?
From a very quick scuffed google search I found this site where he’s listed as:
“Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.
He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships. ”
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/207-craig-tindale
I have no idea how accurate it is on his work experience but it seems almost reasonable in lining up with the stuff he writes on his substack
Thank you for your link to the Tindale post describing Iran’s electrical infrastructure. I will echo “Steve H.”‘s admiration for this Tindale post: “Who is this guy?”
The Great Simplification podcast had two recent interviews with Tindale – here is one of them – well worth a listen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKzsjvRVkik&t=2s
Thank you! I will collect up both those interviews. Nate Hagens usually begins his interviews with a short bio of the interviewee, and sometimes adds a longer bio in the transcript.
82nd Airborne orders imminent according to Reuters and WaPo
Per Guardian
US to send thousands more soldiers to the Middle East – reports
The Pentagon is expected to send thousands of troops from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the matter have told Reuters, adding to the massive military buildup even as the Trump administration apparently seeks talks with Iran.
The Wall Street Journal hears similar, and puts the number of additional troops at 3,000.
A written order to send the soldiers from the US army’s 82nd airborne unit is expected to be released in the coming hours, two US officials told the paper.
It’s unclear where in the region the troops would be sent to and when they would arrive there.
The US military referred to the White House, which did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
It follows reports on 13 March of 5,000 US marines and sailors, along with an amphibious assault ship, being sent to the region.
Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that he doesn’t want to US boots on the ground in Iran – but also hasn’t ruled it out.
—-
I guess the only question now is where Trump will send them to die.
Will they land just outside of Gaza, using the Palestinians as human shields?
Israel Plans to Control Large Parts of Southern Lebanon, Defense Minister Says (NY Times)
Never let a war go to waste!
Reuters: “Traders bet $500 million on oil price just before Trump’s post on delay to Iran attack….The data also shows that, in the minute in which those contracts changed hands, it was selling that dominated volumes. It was not possible to establish who traded the oil.” https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/traders-bet-500-million-oil-price-just-before-trumps-post-delay-iran-attack-2026-03-24/
Though this smacks of insider training and market manipulation by Trump, the media does not seem inclined to go there.
Is there any reporting required that will eventually reveal the names of the sellers?
Reuters: “Traders bet $500 million on oil price just before Trump’s post on delay to Iran attack….The data also shows that, in the minute in which those contracts changed hands, it was selling that dominated volumes. It was not possible to establish who traded the oil.” https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/traders-bet-500-million-oil-price-just-before-trumps-post-delay-iran-attack-2026-03-24/
Though this smacks of insider training and market manipulation by Trump, the media does not seem inclined to go there.
Is there any reporting required that will eventually reveal the names of the sellers?
Not really.
(I don’t trade Brent, which is the price system that is more important in the present crisis.)
For contracts on the U.S. benchmark, the futures exchange knows who places the orders. The buyer or seller might be a customer of a brokerage who places the order. Weekly, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission posts the Commitments of Traders report of the quantities of active futures contracts (“open interest”). The aggregations in the report are rather coarse, by the type of participant. The names of individual participants are not published in those reports.
Technically, the exchange is always in the middle, as the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer. The phrase “…selling that dominated volumes…” is a bit glib. For every buyer of a contract, someone must be a seller. Plausible: above-average volume of orders to open (new) contracts were initiated by sellers in the minutes prior the DJT tweet. March 23 was the first U.S. workday after the majority of open interest had rolled out of the April contracts into the May contracts, so some players might have been trying to catch up with the rest of the market. (I admit that’s also a bit glib. :) )
Some “reporting” can become “required” if the CFTC investigates, but the individual names wouldn’t become public until a settlement was announced, litigation filed with a court of law, or those names leaked.
The insider-tip insinuation seems to be: someone who knew what was going to be in DJT’s tweet told someone else about the content, then that word got to market participants who traded accordingly. The degrees of separation from Trump might not exceed four. How likely is the CFTC, headed by a DJT appointee, likely to start an investigation, depose persons of interest, etc.? Given the grift-forward posture of the administration, maybe not very likely.
Pentagon to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to Middle East ‘in the coming hours’
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryivprgowx
US bomber declares emergency as it returns to base
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17vdgxe54ko
We’ll have 1st and 3rd battalions of the 1st Marines and 82nd’s Immediate Response Force, which is elements of the 1st Brigade. No tanks (because M10 Booker had been cancelled), Marines will have some APC’s, airborne will have just unarmoured vehicles like Infantry Squad Vehicle.
It’s hard to see what the plan is here, but it must be some variant of nuclear material seizure around Isfahan. This is within V-22’s operational range if refueled in Kuwait or eastern Saudi Arabia. Between 2 amphibious carriers they should have 20-25 V-22s, each carrying 20-25 troops, for a 400-500 total. Should be enough for a facility like Natanz.
I think they’ll stage a large raid, try to blow up Natanz from the inside so that they can claim that they destroyed Iran’s enrichment capability, and look for an off-ramp before the markets go boom. Kharg island is just a distraction because if Iran positions troops and air defenses around Natanz it’s game over.
Assuming the V-22s can survive to land and extract a raiding force, it is possible that Trump may declare that he has seized imaginary enriched Uranium. He might even display some containers as “proof.” He could then hope to accept Iran’s peace terms after declaring victory. Iran is not likely to play along. Too many promises have been broken, and too much blood has been shed. Trump’s political career is finished, no matter what military theatrics he stages.
Wouldn’t IAEA want to inspect anything retrieved from an Iranian nuclear site?
Would they be allowed to?
Not likely. The IAEA ruined their reputation when they became a tool for CIA and anti-Russian hysteria.
I’ve been wondering if full Orwellian media control is the strategy–invent a narrative in which Trump wins while in fact capitulating, persuade R voters it’s true, have Trump watch it play on Fox, persuade other media not to report the counterfactual…the actual factual…
But I don’t think it works because reality increasingly bites
The chances are that there are other installations in Iran where real nukes can be assembled and Iran is already building their weapons now, after having dispersed their stockpile of nuclear mateirals. My understanding (could be totally off) is that 60% enrichment can be made to real weapons grade in a few months. We have no idea what the state of Iranian nuclear capability now. I think the new Ayatollah has already insinuated that the nuclear posture is now “under review.” I also don’t see how a commando raid can succeed–it’ll be up to at best a few hundred (more likely dozens) of special ops types, with the Marines and Airborne standing by as backup–can succeed: these things hardly ever work against trained, motivated, and alert adversaries. The worst case scenario might be a nuclear exchange that kills several million Iranians and renders what was once Palestine uninhabitable for many generations in, say, 3 months’ time.
CERAWEEK US says it is working with Canada on permitting for proposed partial Keystone XL revival
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ceraweek-canada-discusses-keystone-xl-revival-with-trump-administration-2026-03-24/
Philippines declares energy emergency over Iran conflict
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ex8ez3717o
Leaders of Elite Paratrooper Unit Ordered to Middle East as Trump Weighs Iran Ground War
Government sources tell The Intercept that leadership of the storied 82nd Airborne Division have been ordered to the Middle East.
https://theintercept.com/2026/03/24/82nd-airborne-leadership-ordered-to-middle-east-as-trump-iran-war/
https://x.com/PBlanrue/status/2036341241571328469
‘If Iran keeps its uranium, everything was for nothing’: Experts, officials react to Trump’s pause
A five-day halt in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, following what President Donald Trump described as “productive” talks, is fueling debate over whether pressure is easing too soon.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891082
Rubio plans travel to France to sell Iran war to skeptical G7 allies
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to France this week to try to sell America’s skeptical Group of Seven allies on the Iran war that has sent global fuel prices soaring
https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/rubio-plans-travel-france-sell-iran-war-skeptical-131360196
The Israeli military wants several more weeks to fight Iran war, officials say
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/24/nx-s1-5759317/israel-iran-war
Trump says Iran gave ‘present’ tied to energy flows in talks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/iran-israel-trade-strikes-amid-us-claims-of-peace-talks?srnd=homepage-americas&leadSource=reddit_wall
A model missile, perhaps, just like the model pager?
stocks rallying after hours on link below:
to be cynical, want to make a risk-free 10% in one afternoon? have your friend at an Israeli mainstream media outlet run a thinly sourced “senior officials”-type story saying that peace is breaking out soon. Profit, lmao
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-said-to-propose-peace-summit-with-iran-in-islamabad-tehran-approval-uncertain-amid-internal-chaos/
I don’t know if either of these have already been posted.
One battle after another: Iran war deals new blow to Europe’s industrial heartland (Reuters)
Europe Chemical Prices Surge as Energy Crisis Deepens (BloomingGlobal) This site doesn’t allow highlighting text and copying, but switching the browser to “reader” mode did the trick to make this possible.
Also, someone already mentioned this above, but Youtube shorts can be viewed as regular videos via a simple URL change, and the result can then be embedded. I tested that this works (from a Reddit post):
On PC/Browser: Replace “shorts/” in the Youtube short link with “watch?v=”. Example, if your Youtube short link is youtube.com/shorts/XXYYZZ, make it youtube.com/watch?v=XXYYZZ.
On mobile/app: Simply like the short. Go to Library and then Liked Videos. You’ll be able to watch the video in normal format there. Also, once you watch the short, it shows at the top in the library. You can simply open the video there as well and it’ll open as a normal video.
There are also browser plugins available to make this URL change automatically:
For Chrome
For Firefox
Thanks!
You’re welcome!
Iran Strikes Israel, Vows to Fight ‘Until Complete Victory’ After Disputing Trump’s Mention of Peace Talks
https://time.com/article/2026/03/24/iran-israel-trade-strikes-trump-war-peace-talks-disputed/
vs.
Trump says negotiations to end war happening ‘right now’ and Iran is ‘talking sense’ (BBC)
(For laughs: Macron tells Iranian president: Engage in negotiations in ‘good faith’)
I guess we’ll see; I wonder if Iran will fold despite having an overwhelming strategic advantage?
Iran says ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz, FT reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-non-hostile-ships-can-transit-strait-hormuz-ft-reports-2026-03-24/
In order to maintain necessary leverage over the US, I think Iran would need to have a fairly narrow definition of “non-hostile” and/or charge a hefty premium for transit.
Has anyone done the calculations? E.G What happens when, say Asian, countries, which don’t have a favorable trade balance with the US, have to buy oil at 2 or 3 x 2025 prices ,from the US in USD? Where do they get the dollars? And could that impact the US economy? Do they sell accumulated treasuries or, from whom do they borrow?
What a coincidence that demand for US dollars was threatened and this would help remedy that 🤔
re the new Asia crisis
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-war-asia/
Countries like Bangladesh are super dependent on Gulf.
Iraq gives PMF green light to respond to US/Israeli aggressions “BY ALL MEANS AVAILABLE.”
Iraq’s Ministerial Council for National Security authorizes the PMF to respond under the principle of the right of response and self-defense.”
This was triggered by a US airstrike on the PMF operations headquarters in Anbar province this morning killed Saad al-Baiji, the PMF’s Anbar operations commander, along with 14 of his men. 30 total killed and wounded. The strike hit during a security meeting attended by senior commanders.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/179151#
Amerika making friends in the middle east.
https://x.com/samartoor3086/status/2036541342864777418
Iran tells UN: ‘non-hostile’ ships can transit Strait of Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-non-hostile-ships-can-transit-strait-hormuz-ft-reports-2026-03-24/
Hard to believe ships carrying gulf oil to the benefit of gulf monarchies that host US bases qualify, but who knows.
Trump Throws Stephen Miller Under the Bus in Surprise Show of Panic
On the surface, Trump wants less attention paid to mass deportations. Meanwhile, Miller is taking new and hidden steps to wreak havoc in the lives of undocumented children and their families.
https://newrepublic.com/article/208114/trump-stephen-miller-immigration-panic
Brutal Poll Says Men Are Abandoning Trump
The president is underwater across the board with male voters.
https://newrepublic.com/post/208125/brutal-poll-cnn-men-abandoning-trump
Iran refuses peace talks with Trump’s ‘backstabbing’ negotiators
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2026/03/24/jd-vance-eyed-take-over-iran-talks/
Imagine that Iran said that they will be willing to meet with any new envoys – provided that they are not of the Jewish religion. Heads would explode in Washington at that.
The U.S. Said It Helped Bomb a Drug Camp. It Was a Dairy Farm.
The Times visited a village where the United States and Ecuador said they destroyed an armed group’s training camp. Residents said it was actually a dairy farm.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/world/americas/us-ecuador-drug-camp-bombing-dairy-farm.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VlA.IAXf.JXmzcnExAYLX
glasses were hurtin my ears, so i watched videos, instead.
here’s one…and katie is prolly my favorite Jewess….welcome around my fire any ol time.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea-bbUWA7Os
Good one. Thanks.
I’ll agree with you on Katie her most desirable feature is her punny mind!
Paris offices of Swiss bank searched by authorities in Epstein-related probe
The French Foreign Ministry said it had completed an administrative investigation, performing about 30 interviews
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/fabrice-aidan-jeffrey-epstein-paris-swiss-bank-rothschild-b2944966.html
Oil at $150 will trigger global recession, says boss of financial giant BlackRock
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wqrdkx8ppo
Army ups max enlistment age to 42
https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2026-03-24/army-raises-enlistment-age-42-21170859.html
They will also overlook it if you only have a single conviction for marijuana use-
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-enlistment-age-marijuana-waiver/
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-891107
Volkswagen in talks with Rafael to manufacture Iron Dome parts
What is that they say? History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes?
Hah. Maybe just cut to the chase and start calling it Der Volksbeschützer…?
On a lighter note…
Otaku Anti-War protest at the Japanese Diet Bldg set for Saturday 03/28
https://x.com/kekekenta0915/status/2036468901404614670
Excerpt of this post by film director Fukasaku Kenta, son of Fukasaku Kinji, of Battle Royale fame.
“Gosu rori” against the war. ✊
Further Hormuzings… note from a friend:
Trump screwed the pooch and gave it the clap, now he wants to sell that dog to the G7?
I’m not sure the euro misleadership class is deranged and corrupt enough to buy this dog, Von der Leyen and Kallas maybe, the rest?