Trump Administration officials besides Trump are starting to behave erratically, a sign the fact that the Iran war is not developing necessarily to US advantage is beginning to penetrate their embubblement and belief in American superiority. However, the reality that the US has put the global economy at risk of a potential depression and is on track to having its military largely if not entirely. run out of the Middle East is still likely beyond what key figures in the Administration can accept, cognitively and practically. Admittedly, it seems likely that some, perhaps many, top members of the armed services are better able to grasp what is happening and could help Administration leaders work through what will come at an epic shock.
Today we will focus on the kinetic war.
The US is still trying to project the false impression that it has escalatory dominance via attacking Kharg Island, which is on the northern end of the Persian Gulf and a major processing/production center for Iran’s oil exports. Keep in mind that none other than Ukraine war diehard hawk, Keith Kellogg, had told Fox News that the US could still end the war quickly and easily by taking Kharg island, since per him, it accounted for 80% to 90% of Iran’s oil exports. A mere look at a map shows what a batshit idea this was; we had assumed that this was messaging directed at chumps, intended to convey that the US was far from bereft of options. But apparently this Administration is of the “No idea is too misguided to be rejected” school of operation.
Even so, the Administration had to admit that it hit only “military” targets and did not touch oil infrastructure. Team Trump has worked out that attacking any Iranian oil facilities would lead Iran to bomb oil infrastructure all over the Middle East.
Turning to Bloomberg’s account first, due to it having good live reporting and out of our view that investor reactions can constrain the Administration faster than battlefield losses and real economy damage. The landing page as of 6:00 AM EDT:
If you have been following the mainstream media, you can see the shift in confidence level from this image alone. Headlines earlier gave the impression of the US and Israel being the moving forces, showcasing their strikes and plans to intensify attacks.
But this is pale compared to the Wall Street Journal landing page, which smells, not of naplam in the morning, but of defeat:
Now to Bloomberg’s Kharg Island report. Notice that the headline at the story proper (via the link from the current banner headline), Trump Strikes Iran’s Kharg Oil Hub and Urges Reopening of Hormuz, has not been updated to reflect Iran’s saber-rattling back. From its body:
The US struck military sites on Kharg Island, from which Iran exports almost all its oil, for the first time overnight, upping the ante in a Middle East war that’s raged for more than two weeks and shows little sign of easing.
President Donald Trump said military facilities on the Persian Gulf island had been “obliterated,” adding that he chose not to hit oil infrastructure “for reasons of decency.” He threatened to do just that should Iran “do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iran reacted on Saturday morning by warning it will target American-linked oil and energy facilities in the Middle East if its own petroleum infrastructure is attacked. Iranian media said all oil-industry workers on the island, which sits about 25 kilometers (16 miles) off the mainland, are safe and unharmed.
Readers no doubt took note of Trump’s admission against interest in using the word “obliterated”. Or was he trying to signal, as with the pre-agreed strike on Fordow, that this attack was meant to be performative and it was time for Iran to back off, having made its point? I doubt it but it is hard to fathom what Trump thinks he is doing, aside from desperately needing to convey that he and only he is driving events.
However, Kharg Island may not be as essential to Iran’s oil exports as the Administration’s messaging posits:
Not really. Iran did not export oil from Kharg Island between 2019 and 2022. How was Iran able to export oil?
The fact is, Iran, with the help of China, built a large number of ports to circumvent sanctions. Iran has a pipeline that runs north to South to circumvent the…— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) March 14, 2026
Larry Johnson gives a long form takedown in Trump’s Kharg Island Fantasy… All Bark, No Bite. Key sections:
Late on Friday Donald Trump claimed in a social media post that military facilities on Kharg Island were targeted. Read his Truth carefully:
Trump is deep into fantasy land. Yes, I think he has lost touch with reality. He admits that the oil terminals were not attacked, just some unidentified military targets…If you don’t know it now, only one of Iran’s 5 operational oil export terminals is located on Kharg Island. According to data from the international company Kepler, the amount of oil loaded from the tanks installed on Kharg increased by 1.5 times in the past month. This suggests that Iran, by quickly emptying Kharg’s tanks, was prepared for this attack.
If Iran’s oil terminal on Kharg had been destroyed, Iran would have launched missiles at identified the oil terminals in all the countries bordering the Persian Gulf. Here’s the list:
Saudi Arabia
Ras Tanura: The largest marine oil loading center in the world; capacity: 6 million barrels per day.Ras Al-Ju’aymah: The second most important terminal; capacity 3 to 3.6 million barrels per day.
United Arab Emirates
Fujairah: Has multiple docks and is the largest fueling center in the region.Jebel Ali: Site for crude oil and petrochemical exports.
Qatar
Ras Laffan: The largest LNG export facility in the world.Kuwait
Mina Al-Ahmadi: Central crude oil export terminal with deep docks and high capacity.Bahrain
Sitra Terminal: Exports refined…There are a couple of ways to look at this. Perhaps Trump’s lie about devastating Kharg Island is the start of his PR campaign to gaslight the American public into believing Iran is defeated, which would allow Trump to declare victory and start withdrawing US forces. That’s one possibility. Alternatively, he really believes the lie and is convinced that this latest strike will convince the Iranians to surrender.
Having said that, it is not impossible that some sort of barmy scheme is in motion:
There is information suggesting that the Israeli regime is trying to persuade Trump to carry out a ground attack on Khark Island. From a strategic standpoint, the presence of U.S. military forces on the ground would give Iran the most historic opportunity to defeat the United…
— Iran Military Media (@IRMilitaryMedia) March 14, 2026
Perhaps the clever Israeli plan is if the US loses enough men in trying to take Kharg Island, it will commit to sending even more troops and treasure into this burn pit? From the Wall Street Journal in More Marines and Warships Head to Middle East as Hormuz Mission Intensifies:
The Pentagon is moving additional Marines and warships to the Middle East, as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. prepares to escort tankers through the waterway.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious-ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit to head to the region, according to U.S. officials.
Two ships from the Japan-based USS Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit are now headed for the Middle East…
A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment. One of the officials said the additional assets would initially be involved in strike operations on Iran. The USS Tripoli is equipped with F-35B jump-jet fighters.
An amphibious-ready group is a fast-response unit used to conduct sea-based amphibious assaults, humanitarian aid missions and special operations. The group’s embarked Marine expeditionary unit includes more than 2,000 Marines.
In addition to the Marine unit, the Pentagon is also weighing Centcom’s request for two additional destroyers to help escort commercial ships through the strait, one of the officials said.
About 2,500 Marines aboard as many as three warships are heading to the Middle East from the Indo-Pacific region, as Iran increases its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, two U.S. officials said.
Click through for this reality check:
The deployment of a MEU looks good on paper, but your traditional Marine Corps, the one that perfected forced entry and was perhaps the only military force in the world capable of doing so, no longer exists.
Why? In Trump’s first term, the service changed its doctrine to Force… https://t.co/TnlavMILMi
— James R. Webb (@JamesWebb_16) March 13, 2026
Now this new attempts at escalation may appear confident. Contrast this with signs of Administration officials, other than Trump, looking as if they are coming unglued. The triggers seem to be continued pounding by Iran. Larry Johnson maintains, forcefully, that the refueler that crashed in Iraq, resulting in six deaths, was the result of a strike. Shortly after that (as we will show below), Iran dropped what is purported to be a 2,000 pound bomb on the US base in Saudi Arabia. We have accounts that military and five more refuelers were severely damaged. Note more missiles may have gotten through than the one carrying the 2,000 pound munition.
The video clips in this must-watch Janta Ka update are telling, and not in a good way. It includes Pete Hegseth going full Baghdad Bob:
However, I suspect a if mot the reason for the freakout was the above-shown Wall Street Journal banner article, Trump Knew the Risk of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He Still Went to War. The fact checking process would have made clear something like this was about to drop. IPutting this in the face of the right-leaning investor classes is clearly not welcome. I will not quote from the article since pretty much all of it familiar to readers but will update the link with an archived version for the inquisitive when one becomes available.
Some of these kinetic war updates overlap but together they present Iran inflicting even more punishment.
This Aljazeera report, from a bit earlier than the Hindustan Times videos, confirms a France 24 account from yesterday, of Israeli government messaging that war could last another year, but adding here bizarre expectation that Iran war will end first, Lebanon later. Erm, if Iran war the ends sooner it will not be via a US/Israel victory but the US being run out of most if not all of its Middle East bases.
This is also not a good sign:
Iran’s Khatam al‑Anbiya Air Defense Headquarters has called on residents of the United Arab Emirates to evacuate ports, ship docks, and locations used by US Armed Forces, warning that civilians should stay away to avoid harm.
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) March 14, 2026
For some broader takes, Larry Wilkerson and Larry Johnson weighed in on Nima:
If you did not read the Richard Pape article we linked to earlier, this is a very good recap of his views. He discusses how Iran is inducing a system shock and we have lost control of escalation. He also believes that the US will still try to escalate further:
France 24 turns its attention to the US propaganda war:
Turning briefly to the economic front. Oil closed the trading week at just below $100. There was brief price relief from a false report that an Indian tanker had been allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz:
Debunked: Viral claims of Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz for India are fake. 🚫🚢
Rajesh Kumar Sinha (GoI) confirmed:
The tanker in Mumbai never crossed the Strait.
It was in the Gulf of Oman; fuel was meant for Africa.
Diplomacy What a Shame 🙂#StraitOfHormuz #IranWar #crude pic.twitter.com/k6haw2iNYN— Sanket Gunge (@sdgunge) March 14, 2026
Market heavyweights weighed in strongly against the idea of the Treasury trying to intervene in oil futures markets. From the Financial Times in US intervention in oil futures would be ‘biblical disaster’, CME warns:
Terry Duffy, the chief executive of CME Group, which runs the exchange where US oil futures trade, told a conference this week that it would erode market confidence if the US government stepped into the futures market in a bid to curb the rise in crude.
“Markets do not like it when governments intervene in pricing,” Duffy told the conference in Boca Raton, Florida. Such a move would risk a “biblical disaster” if investors lost confidence in markets to set the price of critical commodities, he said.
Gillian Tett, who did phenomenal reporting in the runup to the crisis and is now editor-in-chief for the Financial Times in the US, sounded a reassuring note in Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock? However, Tett has become badly diminished in her elevation to the US top slot. She typically offers leading-edge conventional wisdom. Her take is marred by focusing only on private credit risk. Both the US and China have extremely high levels of private debt to GDP, which is the best predictor of financial crises. However, unlike the financial crisis, the exposures are not concentrated in systemically important, overleveraged financial firms. That in theory means any threat to the critical payments system is no doubt lower. But the broader distribution of risk is likely to result in greater difficulty in any intervention, which means the end game may be deflation and zombification a la Japan, as opposed to a cataclysm. From her article:
Meanwhile, bad news is also tumbling out from the non-banking world, this time from private credit funds. Never mind that regulators have repeatedly warned that the private credit sector seems overheated; or that banks like JPMorgan are reducing exposures to this sphere, which contains “cockroaches” (ie troubled loans) to cite Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan.
What is most unnerving is that multiple funds — ranging from those run by behemoths like Morgan Stanley and BlackRock to specialists such as Blue Owl and Cliffwater — report that investors are trying to flee the funds. That reflects fears that AI will undermine the business model of software companies backed by private credit, even as the sector faces a $40bn redemption wall in 2028. However, the risks go well beyond AI, as the recent failure of UK lender MFS shows.
And while most private credit funds have rules that limit quarterly redemptions to 5 per cent of assets — enabling them to “gate” (ie prevent) excess outflows — the exodus echoes 2008. Hence why Kunal Shah, a top Goldman Sachs executive, told clients that some financiers were “just glad there’s something to talk about that isn’t software exposures and private credit” — ie the Iran war.
Or, even more bluntly, it is not just US President Donald Trump who might relish the focus on the war (a good distraction from the debate around the Epstein files). Some financiers also have reason to avoid the spotlight. Doubly so, given that retail investors have flooded into private credit, with White House backing.
So should investors worry about a 2008-style systemic shock? Probably not in the short term. One reason is that private credit is around $2tn in size, so fairly small for the system as a whole. Another is that the wider financial system seems better prepared for shocks — like surging oil prices — as Pablo Hernández de Cos, head of the Bank for International Settlements, recently noted in a thoughtful speech.
Mind you, this is an unverified set of reports on Twitter, but some are sounding alarms…or maybe oil shorts trying to talk their book?
Bessent had to call comex to place giant orders to suppress a calamity on Monday. https://t.co/oHPRJQHfgK
— World of Fiat Fraud 🌎 (@VanAccy) March 14, 2026
Needless to say, if the Fed does make a 50 basis point cut despite expectations of markedly higher inflation, the bad information of its action (confirming that private credit market conditions were really bad) is likely to mean that any relief to Mr. Market’s rattled nerves is short-lived.
Consider additionally from Paul R (the article does not add much to the headline save that the statement was made on CNN): Iran considering limited tanker passage through Strait of Hormuz if cargo paid in yuan: Report Anadolu Agency.
All for today! Back tomorrow!
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Yves, speaking as a lifelong news junkie, my advice to you is – take a break. Go sit on a beach somewhere, for at least 3 days. Let others pick up the slack. The madness will go on without you, and you can come back refreshed.
Naked Capitalism is Important. Take care of yourself.
I actually started feeling better as soon as I allowed myself to whinge. I had to rebook flights in light of the war + doing Links.
And I don’t much like beaches. Ocean/sea views are very nice, but not being on a beach proper, IMHO.
Well, fine, if you don’t take vacation, at least make sure you take breaks. Get exercise (I know you like to lift weights) and get a good night’s sleep.
No one is better in crunch times like these than Yves! She’s at her best in deciphering chaotic situations in a hurry.
I exercise religiously.
The Pape interview was interesting, even if he couldn’t stop talking.
However, as an ‘expert’ in aerial bombardment he should have cited the Luftwaffe; the Condor Legion in the Spanish Civil War deliberately implemented unrestricted aerial bombing on civilians (Guernica, etc.) to destroy morale.
When the Luftwaffe swept over Europe they did this deliberately, in the Hague, Warsaw, Amsterdam etc and of course the UK – until British/US bombing became a thing, the Luftwaffe used to boast about this mass-killing as ‘coventrierung’, the ‘coventration’ of a place, after the destruction of Coventry.
From 1943 the same thing happening to Germany became “Terrorangriffe”, terrorist attacks. It’s amazing how the same thing attracts a very different perspective, depending on whether you’re doing it or it’s being done to you…
Point being, Israel has used its superior airforce to kill Muslims at will and doesn’t give a toss about women and children. Now, however, drone/missile warfare have made air warfare far more democratic and Iran/Hezbollah are giving the same terror back to Israel, through an entirely different dynamic.
Will new-style mass missile/drone attacks break down old-style aircraft blockades, as seems likely, until Israel gives in?
Or will Kahanist Israel go the final yard and nuke Iran, as Bibi would love to do?
I’ve met Yves in person, she is an absolute machine. The legend is not an exaggeration!
Very much not an assignment, but I got a 2 hour Thai massage today and it was the best decision I made all week!
She is better when it hits the fan mate … some of us lean into the plate at such moments and live for it …
Then again YS has a lot of people behind her back … over some years .. and then some JohnW … thus this blog persists …
True, dat!
When the going gets tough, the tough get going!
TIME TO SHINE, BOYS
🫡 🇺🇸
As Yves says, or at least implies based on her exercise regimen, exercise is stress relief. I am following the same path since I literally can’t sit on the laptop reading this disaster unfolding most of the day. In the past month I have signed up, through our local park & rec district, for unlimited access to exercise classes. I am taking every class I can fit into my schedule – all the intense workouts like high intensity interval training, plus weights, plus yoga-centric balance. What remains of my week is attending to essential tasks (taxes, etc) plus tennis. This is the only way I can calm down enough to get at least 4-5 hours of sleep.
I confess I am obsessed with following real information at NC but I am just giving up doing other things I would like to do and focusing on fitness as a passion like never before. I just hope this war doesn’t escalate into truly Armageddon level disaster, but with those in charge in the US the future looks grim to me.
Stay healthy everyone, as best you can.
Asked AI about predominant ME wind directions to estimate where fallout would go. (Forgive me, I don’t know that stuff myself. I’m not posting the output but my thoughts on it.) That because of Yves’ intuition that escalation to nukes isn’t as likely as one might expect.
The gist of the reply is what I kinda expected. Pakistan hasn’t vowed to nuke Israel in response to an attack on Iran out of (just) solidarity with a muslim neighbour: atomic blasts in Iran would cause fallout to be blown by the predominant westerlies towards Pakistan. No escape. Domestic pressure on the government to punish Israel would be unbearable for any government.
And if Pakistan does that, well… fallout from a blast in Israel would blow into Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. I doubt the Hashemite and Saudi dynasties could survive that.
The Iran blast would also invite retaliation from Russia because its Caspian South would be affected.
So yeah, I think Yves has this right. If Israel resorts to nukes, it will be Samson option in its most morbid sense – Samson also died, after all. And if nukes aren’t an option, the end of this particularly nasty settler state might be not so unthinkable after all.
This is a fairly morbid subject, but being as I have been “nuclear adjacent” for significant stretches of time…
…The real key with a nuclear exchange and its resulting after-effects is the number and size of the detonations.
The size is important, because up to a certain point the fallout dispersion is relatively “limited” – basically, the higher the cloud, the further the particles in it can be dispursed. After the first 1-3 days the most active radioactive elements burn themselves out (short half-life), so if you can limit the dispersion of the rest, you’ll end up with something bad, but not a regional catastrophe.
The number of detonations goes directly to the far, far worse potential effect than any resulting fallout – nuclear winter. In simple terms, according to at least some models that exist today, a full-on nuclear exchange between the US and either Russia or China will (i.e. may, we’ve never tested this experimentally), through particulate emission into the atmosphere, drop global temperatures – not permanently, for about 1-2 years or so – to where about 70%-90% of all plant life in the Northern Hemisphere dies out. I.e. most of agriculture. But this is thousands of warheads detonating, including a number of 1 Mt or larger (with higher clouds). There is a lot of room before you get there from here.
So hypothetically. If Israel drops 2-3 400 kt nukes on Teheran and Isfahan to “make Iran surrender” – which it will not, of course – that is what I would call an “thoroughly unpleasant situation”, fallout-wise, but not a catastrophic one yet. If Israel launches its entire arsenal – said to be ~400 warheads – across Iran, and if some of these are in the 1 Mt+ range, and I just don’t know, and then Pakistan drops 10 warheads on Israel, and you don’t need any more than that – that’s more of a regional catastrophe, especially for countries downwind of Iran, but maybe, just maybe not enough to hit global agriculture in quite the same way as a US-Russia nuclear war would. Mostly because I am hoping the Israelis have a lot of smaller warheads. And again, “catastrophe” may be a bit of an overstatement – in some areas, you’ll just see cancer rates triple-quintuple, i.e. going from 1% to 3%-5% (making up some figures here), which is still not zombie-apocalypse level.
So. TLDR, all nuclear exchanges are bad, but in terms of the post-effects some are merely SNAFU, while others go full FUBAR.
If Israel launches its entire arsenal it will include hitting Berlin and Moscow and potentially other European capitals as well as a lot of Iran and Pakistan. Anybody that the Israelis have a grudge against for past historical wrongs or insufficiently slavish present support will get destroyed, because the Samson option is them dying and taking their final revenge against the whole world for that. I believe I read here recently that they even have a few missiles capable of reaching the US, fwiw. The question is how many members of the Israeli leadership are crazed enough to invoke that option vs. accepting a cushy relocation to Europe and the US under the Samsonite option.
The “Samsonite Option.” Ha! Good one!
La Valise ou le Cercueil…
Hermès or Samsonite? History does not actually repeat itself, but it often rhymes…
Jehrico4 & extended range Jehrico3 can reach at least Eastern half of USA.
LOL. This discussion about nuclear winter out reminds me of a “science experiment” we did when I was in kindergarten.
At the time, the USA and Russia were still conducting above ground testing.
Our kindergarten class put outside white plates to see how much fall out landed in our area. We had a nice dusting on the plates over night, but there was never any discussion of how dangerous that dust might be.
Times have changed.
Adding to that, the probably the second biggest uncertainty in nuclear winter scenarios is the amount of soot emitted by burning cities or other targets. ( The biggest uncertainty of course is how big the war is and what is targeted). There really is a wide range of estimates for this and for a given sized war you could get nuclear winter or something much less severe depending on which smoke emission estimates are true. Some cities are more flammable than others. The variables are endless. The National Academy of Sciences put out a study last year and you can read it online for free— I read parts of it. I would go look for the link but I am feeling lazy.
There are similar uncertainties in the scenarios of what happened after the Chicxulub impact— the details are very different, of course, but you can only trust computer models so far when dealing with a gigantic cataclysm beyond our experience.
It is, of course, the kind of gamble only a madman or genocidal maniac would engage in. The NAS said we need further research ( into all sorts of things such as the flammability and soot emitting properties of various targets after being bombed ) and from a scientific pov that is true, but from another viewpoint it might be better if we weren’t sure. I can easily imagine Dr. Strangelove telling Trump or Netanyahu that if we just use 100 bombs under 100 Kt there might be a bit of smoke but we would destroy Iran and wouldn’t get our hair mussed ( which would matter to Trump).
Here is the NAS nuclear winter study I mentioned in my other comment ( under moderation at the moment).
https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/27515/chapter/1#v
I hate to point this out, but you are speaking of the effects of nuclear airbursts, and are neglecting nuclear groundbursts. A small groundburst is FAR worse, and far more persistent, than an airburst, when it comes to fallout. Groundbursts are typically reserved for the destruction of critical infrastructure- hardened industrial sites (and by sites, I mean cities where industrial production is concentrated) and…..areas known to have large military or command, control, communications bunkers. All of the important military sites in Iran are underground, and all of the Israeli leadership is hunkered down in bunkers. The reason for all of this is that a detonation in contact with or below the surface generates shockwaves that travel through the ground, rupturing anything in nearby ground surface and surprisingly deep (depending on geological/soil/amount of water saturation in the soil). Foundations are pulverized, water, sewer, and gas pipes get ruptured/collapse, buried electrical lines get severed/shorted, and subsurface cavities, such as bunkers, tend to have their roofs pushed down onto the inhabitants (unless engineered for such a strike, which is unlikely due to the costs).
Airbursts tend to cause fires and cause casualties, but preserve a lot of hardened (concrete and steel + buried) infrastructure, especially as you move outward from the hypocenter, where survival rates greatly increase for both living things and man made objects, at least the hard stuff.
I live under the likely fallout pattern for Pittsburgh, and every time tensions rose, I worried, because it was always agreed that Pittsburgh, due to the concentration of the steel industry, would be slated for a groundburst. I saw an article a couple of years ago that stated that that would no longer be the case, and I remember feeling actually relieved- A silver lining to de-industrialization, I suppose.
Anyway, groundbursts produce far more fallout due to the dust and debris that is thrown into the atmosphere- almost all of which will be contaminated, and much of this will be products with longer half-lives (I believe this is due to the high energy particle flux near the center of the detonation being able to more easily interact with more solid matter, instead of the gasses of the atmosphere.
Anyway, just wanted to point this out, as it is an important part of the discussion when it comes to fallout. Groundbursts are going to be used against hardened C3 targets, and concentrations of heavy industry. Population centers and non-hardened military sites (airbases/naval bases) will get airbursts.
Einar Tangen discusses with Glenn Diesen the consequences of a nuclear attack on Iran at the 15 minute mark.
https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/einar-tangen-age-of-irrationality
Iran sits at the intersection of the Eurasian jet stream. Falloout starts out localized in the “Stans” then affects India and then blows around the world, inducing climate change and a 10% drop in agricultural productivity.
Israel is definitely living in a glass house when it comes to nuclear weapons. The territory is so small that I have heard estimates that one or two detonations in the Tel Aviv area would render the entire country uninhabitable.
Of course, this does not mean the Israeli military could not launch a nuclear strike from bunkers even after such an event, but if the goal is to retain a functioning Zionist state, then the battle would be over by that point.
BTW, one thing we saw after the 12-day war last year was that upper class Israelis have little or no loyalty to Israel, and can and will quickly flee when conditions become difficult. This means that the Israeli government has an important mission of trying to maintain an atmosphere of normality if they want to keep their population. Obviously, a nuclear exchange does not convey an atmosphere of normality (!), but even things far short of that will have the same effect. Beyond the issue of internal censorship of wartime damage inside Israel, I have not seen this matter discussed much in press or commentary.
The JA video with the woman explaining “Allāhu ʾAkbar”…this is what the oligarchs and sociopaths fear, people not afraid of death, and this is why they are bombing Iran. They fear the truly religious which I why they are killing religion and have been replacing religion with capitalism.
As a Christian, I agree with my Muslim friends, God is the Greatest.
You have to be impressed with the Iranians when that bomb exploded nearby. There was no panic, no mad rush but they stood there defiant. Impressive too to see their President walking down a main street and letting people take selfies with him and even kiss him. Can you imagine Trump casually strolling down Pennsylvania Avenue? I thought not. Last time something like that happened in the US was when Teddy Roosevelt would greet average people from the steps of the White House.
The Pezeshkian thing was quite the stunt. Really helps bury the idea of a hatred regime barely hanging on.
The style reminded me of Mamdani’s NYC mayoral campaign. Very light-hearted, casual and charming.
Only US prez I can think of doing something like that were the Kennedys, and we know how that ended.
Didn’t Truman take walks? I believe he walked down Constitution Ave and the walks gained the nickname “Morning Constitutionals”. Please correct me if I am mis-remembering.
The irony is that while Hegseth was mocking the Iranian leadership for cowardly hunkering down in their bunkers, they were out on the streets, mingling with the crowds on Quds Day. Can you ever imagine American leaders mingling with the crowds? If anybody is cloistered it is the US leadership…and Netanyahu, who hasn’t been seen in weeks, except for an occasional video!
Even more ironic is that Hegseth, along with a number of the Trump regime, live on military bases in DC area because they are afraid to live among the civilian population. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/10/trump-officials-military-housing-stephen-miller/684748/
H. L. Mencken
Well, you could say the same thing about the law or politics.
Re John 9:
I think this is more important than people are saying. Bunker mentality.
there are reports that leading luminaries of the trump regime have now gone to ground on military bases out of fear for their own safety. netanyahu and gvir seem to be missing in action and there are all sorts of reports of “car accidents” and the like, with speculation that they may have gone to the big synagogue in the sky by one route or another. donny and bee bee’s most excellent persian adventure seems to have turned into a bit of a s**tshow. $15 billion in energy has disappeared from the gulf per day. multiply that by 15 days to date and you’re talking serious money, forgetting about billion dollar destroyed radars. early days yet. iraq and afghanistan went on for 20 years. is it just me or does donny sound increasingly unhinged with every twitter feed? he almost makes hesgeth look sane.
Netanyahu may be hiding but he did make a presentation a couple of nights ago. Ben Gvir is a different matter, I agree.
thanks for that. it’s difficult to know what to make of things now with all the ai and pre recorded tapes.
I should’ve noted who was saying it but just this morning I saw a link from one of the mainstream news sites saying that the Iranian people were hiding and cowering in fear because of all the bombing and that’s why they hadn’t risen up yet. Lol
Judging from that video their god is rather more convincingly great than Hegseth’s or whatever was being invoked in that handsy show around Trump at the Resolute desk.
Several years ago I heard an interview with a Christian missionary who for a time had been held captive by the Taliban in Afghanistan. When they asked him why he had come there to preach Christianity, he replied IIRC “Because God told me to”. He said his captors immediately understood him, whereas when he tried to explain himself to his secular friends at home they would just look at him with incomprehension.
I listened to the video. She is a little confused. Iran is not under god’s protection anymore then Israel or pentagon Pete. The idea that god cares is delusion. Creation has no care. That God is your frame of reference for reality shows limited grasp of reality, that you have made god in your own image Reality exists beyond frames beyond words. The very idea of a supreme god is a gross fig leaf to mask a lack of understanding, to put all we don’t know or pretend to know in a box and call it god. To approach reality with Allahu Akbar just makes you a team player.
JP, in my experience a Human Being can directly experience the integrity of the Universe,which I have compared to one of my intestinal fauna having full access to my senses when I was at an ELP Concert (I only made it to one).
And then trying to explain to their neighbors.
Reality is now.
It is without time.
I percieved it as both a Song and a Dance and it is surpassingly beautiful.
Pretty much the usual transcendant experience, the second time I got there through transcendant pain.
Not recommended, although after a few decades to think it over it was a high price, but well worth paying.
And yes, I am still in pain more than 30 years later.
I have easy days and hard days but no bad days, at 72 years old I don’t have time to waste being unhappy.
Enjoy the show!
Thank you, Yves.
These daily summaries are so helpful in understanding the conflict, but they must be quite an additional work load. If they’re contributing to your stress hangover please take any time away from the war summaries as needed. Your well being is prime.
Done for today. Please refresh your browsers if you arrived early.
And forgive me if I missed important comments from mid-afternoon and evening yesterday I had to get cracking so all I could do was clear comments in mod as opposed to catch up on the full discussion. I will do that later.
Thank You!
Thank you for the continued cover of the situation.
On Trump’s Kharg Island lie, gaslighting, etc, “which would allow Trump to declare victory and start withdrawing US forces.”
Trump has no way out of this war. Marco Rubio spilled the beans when he basically said we knew that the Israelis were going to strike and that would leave our bases and troops vulnerable. Thus, we had to go in with the Israelis.
What Marco left out was that the Iranians had made considerable concessions during negotiations that would have given Trump a deal which Trump could then claim was better than Obama’s JCPOA.
Moreover, Marco must have known that Netanyahu panicked because he did not want Trump to make a deal because that that would send Netanyahu’s 40-year dream of destroying Iran up in smoke. Trump thought he did not have an option other than joining Netanyahu in attacking Iran.
Therefore, how is Trump going to pull out now? The same Zionists forces that pushed Trump into this war will freak out if Trump pulls out now and abandons Israel; Israel is militarily invested in Lebanon as well. Those Zionist forces, with access to the msm, social media, and within government will be relentless in undermining Trump in order to ruin his presidency.
Trump was crazy stupid for backing Israel and not making a deal with Iran when he had the chance.
I agree 100%. I don’t know why Johnson engaged in that sort of hopium.
As yours truly has repeatedly said:
1 If the US and Israel stop shooting, Iran will stop shooting.
2 Iran will keep the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on or at best will loosen it only a smidge until the US pulls nearly all forces out of the Middle East on a permanent basis
#2 means the US and Israel are likely to keep doing the same sort of stoopid terrorist-type stunts we see in Ukraine v Russia to try to reassert their manhood.
I agree that #2 is a priority goal for Iran but #1 is tricky. Israel will only stop shooting if Iran agrees to a ceasefire which by definition is temporary and unlikely as Iran doesn’t trust Israel or the US.
Plus, under a ceasefire Iran would not achieve its #2 goal. Robert Pape recently said Iran has escalation dominance. I don’t see Iran giving up that edge when its goals appear achievable.
Imo because israel is a small country they can’t stand to be pounded as long as Iran can. Plus escalation may be built in, israel/us might bomb critical Iran infrastructure like elect gen/desal/oil processing/oil pipelines, which Iran would immediately tit got tat, and nailing that stuff would quickly shut israel down. Israel throws a lot of stones for somebody living in a small glass house.
Plus, imo Iran will quickly respond to cease fire violations, not waiting for proof of hudonit.
I think Iran’s job now is to establish the new rules of the Persian Gulf in practice without needing a ceasefire agreement. By rules I mean: If you shoot we shoot back. If you pay we let ships through. That sort of real simple thing. It can be accomplished with PR and trial and error — no need for diplomats talking to Twitkoff. Occasional stoopid terrorist stuff with mighty retaliation could help maintain the understanding. Deterrence established and maintained in practice.
It takes two sides to make a peace, just as it requires two sides to make a war. As I said elsewhere this week, the West has very little idea of strategic objectives, and tends to confuse fantasy outcomes with feasible end-states. It has even less idea of the operational art of getting there. I think the Iranians are better placed intellectually, and they have an end-state which is the Gulf free of US (and probably western) presence, and dominated by Iran. So it’s then a question of what they will do at the operational level to bring that state about. I’m not sure that closing the Straits will achieve that by itself. It might force the US to withdraw the forces it sent there, but they could still be positioned within, say, a week’s travel. No matter how badly the world economy is wrecked, I can’t see the US actually dismantling installations, closing naval bases etc without further pressure. I think that will have to be done kinetically, probably in response to what the Iranians elect to describe as “provocations.” The idea would be to make the region too unstable, with the constant fear of attack, for US forces to re-install themselves, or for the states in the region to want them there.
I think Iran will demand, at the least, if not eliminated, the base system will be downsized. And I can’t imagine they will agree to end the war without sanction relief, as well as reparations.
I don’t know yet what to think. In one sense this war reminds me of the photos in the Cornwall Standard-Freeholder I read as I was coming of age in the 1960s of the Soviet Politburo and articles analysing what was what by the distance between the Chairman and the rest of Politiburo members. As well I think what must never be forgotten when analysing any Trump policy was the fact, since revealed, that Trump himself put no stock in getting elected in 2016 and seems to have to told Melania that there was no chance of his election. That this 2016 election bid was a stunt and was as always simply a self-promotion — towers, wine, meat, colleges, watches, Apprentice, etc. I think too much is being made of his policies beyond self-promotion. Ensconced in power in 2017 with an array of lieutenants accepting none of his direction, and then with impeachment, Russia Gate, golden showers, pussy gate, etc. and the failed re-election and subsequent court appearances, convictions, etc. — whew — so Trump decided 2024 was going to be an exercise of applying the same tactics used in 2016 to get elected: the most successful sales personnel that I have known are those who agree with everything the mark says, expresses, even will let themselves be treated with contempt for the sale. If money is the single and sole objective then it becomes a question of moving from one mark to another as the marks for the “product” are caught and hence discovering there are no more marks. These sales people move from one “product” to another. Substitute software products, for hardware or cars or EVs or hot tubs, etc. etc. It is not a question of failure but simply as they say – there is no market left. If my view is correct, then Trump is simply waiting for the right moment to move to another market and mark. And I mean by that given all the pressures what is or are solutions to extricate himself, as the mark and market. Right now he is trying an array of possible solutions and guessing that one will be the one the mark takes: and they say, let’s do the paperwork. There are no consequences at this point: even impeachent realistically is not on the horizon. Not a fist, nor a projectile. L’état c’est moi Trump’s formulation is more pure than Louis’.
With regard to anything: Trump is trying to find another “thing” to keep himself in place given the threats. Absent sickness, death, etc he is with Americans until he walks away. I don’t believe he thinking of his legacy like Nixon was in the Watergate fiasco. See what he says below about moving from mark to mark:m
“The real excitement is playing the game. I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about what I should have done differently, or what’s going to happen next. If you ask me exactly what the deals I’m about to describe all add up to in the end, I’m not sure I have a very good answer. Except that I’ve had a very good time making them.” — Art of the Deal
“try to reassert their manhood” Good point.
Because their definition of being a “man” is to needlessly destroy, mass murder thousands, target children etc. while posturing and posing for the cameras. This while they cower behind walsl of security and relative safety. To see impotent, decrepit old dudes like Bibi, DT, Graham and the crew posing as “though guys” is pathetic
fwiw Alastair Crooke with Chris Hedges a week ago repeated his interpretation that Trump had no choice being pressured from all sides.
Trump did have a choice. He could have looked at the various points of pressure and go with the solution that damaged him the least.
If, having all the facts, this is the one he chose I dread to think what the others could have done to him. I give you that too many people around him might have actually bought or sold the idea that Iran would fold quickly and perhaps even collapse. But no matter what was the result of the attack Iran was going to inflict major damage before collapsing, this was still going to be unprovoked, his administration would clearly have been negotiating in bad faith and would further undermine their reputation with other countries they needed to negotiate with. And even if the assassination had succeeded in destabilizing Iran regime change this was going to be a long term far deeper military investment in the Middle East because that process is never clean or quick. His victory lap would still further divide his base and was always going to adversely affect the economy which would not play well with independent voters both of which would make a Democratic Congress highly probable. And not everyone around him was predicting a cake walk. There was no way a credible “Mission Accomplished” was going to come from this that would hold up for nine months. Even at its best this was a losing choice.
I think what he reveals in the Art of the Deal is germane, as they say:
“I don’t kid myself. Life is very fragile, and success doesn’t change that. If anything, success makes it more fragile. Anything can change, without warning, and that’s why I try not to take any of what’s happened too seriously. Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game. I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about what I should have done differently, or what’s going to happen next. If you ask me exactly what the deals I’m about to describe all add up to in the end, I’m not sure I have a very good answer. Except that I’ve had a very good time making them.”
Frankly, I personally have no clear view of what to think.
One hand I can´t believe Trump when alone and undisturbed – although probably is alone almost never, it´s like Louis XIV. – might think some thing which could pose question marks behind what he is stating in public (my notion of him merely an actor).
Adding to that Max Blumenthals´deep-psychology/trauma-take.
Other hand considering the hermetic bubble Washington is – not just WH – they may well be many truly this delusional (I just have to think of CEOs and think tankers talking about Russia). Only bothered by some critical comments from lower level military or former administration officials.
As long as it does not affect them it is secondary what is going on in the real world that´s for sure.
That is of course true for most of both houses too and the coterie of reporters confronting Trump 24/7.
However if the US military is covering up losses and the real damage inflicted by Iran – that means enough people know the truth. You only try to hide facts if you are aware of them and of their implications.
Dostoevsky
Sending the troops into Kharg Island looks like Operation Market Garden II to me, or maybe more like Gallipoli. Anyway, didn’t seem to hurt Churchill’s career. More like the current popular template of failing upwards. Being on the right side of history means being on the wrong side of a career. There must be something in the water…
“Being on the right side of history means being on the wrong side of a career.”
That is an excellent way of putting it. I would like to make the case to a business I’m familiar with that shoveling money at corporations owned by warmongering Zionists might not be the best option for a company that has anti-war and pro-environmental values. I’d also like to have a job afterwards.
So instead I will join the chorus and thank NC once again for providing a spot where people can say things like that.
“Netanyahu panicked because he did not want Trump to make a deal …”
People have swallowed the lie that Trump has agency wrt Israel/Middle-East.
But Trump told us himself during his 2016 Presidential run: If you take money from powerful interests, they OWN YOU. He told his that he would be his own man because he was self-funded.
Then he took hundreds of millions from the Adelsons and other Zionists.
On top of that, he has deep family connections and business interests that predispose him to a certain point of view (and possibly his association with Epstein) AND US Deep State / MIC want to be led in the direction of global conquest as well.
= =
This understanding leads to the following insights:
1) How long has Trump secretly planned to attack Iran?
I’d argue that his intention pre-dated his first term.
In his first term, Trump pretended to be a “peacemaker” via peace talks with North Korea, then he set up a US spy-plane to be shot down and killed Soleimani.
I’d guess that war was averted only because US military brass just weren’t up to a full-blown war with Iran yet.
2) What was the strategy for this round of conflict?
Trump initially said he would bomb Iran to protect Iranian protesters. When the protests died down because Iran jammed Starlink, Trump then changed his pretext to Iran rebuilding their nuclear capabilities.
They seemed to think that after an attack, Iran would be shooken to the core. They would recoil and reassess. Meaning no real repercussions for the attackers – despite Iran’s having warned many times in the months prior that it would respond to any attack with great force.
Conclusion: Trump was determined to attack. He just had to find a pretext. In the end, it was the most flimsy/whacky of all lame excuses: I didn’t like they way they were negotiating.
The only explanation I can see for this is that Trump-Netanyahu apparently decided to attack during peace negotiations because it presented an opportunity to assassinate more Iranian top leadership with a surprise attack.
3. Why would “peacemaker” Trump attack during peace negotiations?
This is so outrageous that we have to conclude that “peacemaker” was always bullshit. Trump even claimed that he was saved BY GOD from an assassins bullet so that he could bring peace.
Trump was always inclined to attack Iran. It was baked into his Presidency (both terms).
Why would Trump destroy his political coalition and his legacy with such outrageous conduct? Because he was always captured. By his family and business ties, by his political donors, and maybe by his association with Epstein.
= =
Trump has proven that he has no agency wrt to Israel and the middle-east.
It’s time for the realist community to stop swallowing and furthering propaganda narratives that suggest otherwise.
If there is any one person who does have agency in this situation, that would be the President and Commander in Chief presiding over the largest military on the planet, and who possesses almost dictatorial powers due to Congress abdicating its responsibilities over the course of many decades.
If the president can start wars involving the US on his say so alone, he can certainly stop them too.
Sure, he has the legal power but he had the legal power to keep his cherished “peacemaker” mantle intact also.
We are told that Trump is uncontrollable and egotistical. Yet he reliably does whatever benefits Israel – even at the expense of his own legacy (very unlike Trump). He is either controllable wrt to Israel or a dyed-in-the-wool Zionist. Either way, he’s neither America First or a peacemaker.
Perhaps you would prefer “compromised”. I didn’t use that simply because it begs for evidence of compromise (which has been well-hidden), whereas I make my “no agency” case on his throwing off his “peacemaker” cloak.
I wonder how many American sailors are familiar with Tennyson’s works?
“Ours not to reason why, ours but to do, and die” comes to mind.
And “Operation AIPAC Fury” seems to be gaining traction.
Just noticed “AIPAC Fury ” from another commenter here yesterday. Even better than “Epstein Fury”.
LOL. Larry Johnson called it “Operation Epic Fuckup”
AIPAC FUBAR, suits the Trump style.
Maybe for certain specific audiences. I’m not sure general audiences know what AIPAC is or that its use in “Operation AIPAC Fury” represents what it does to us, massive political blackmail from a foreign power enthusiastically welcomed by American politicians of all stripes. I’m not sure it represents that even to American politicians.
You know, it does appear that Kharg Island is about half a league wide.
As they say, “History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme a lot.”
Good. VERY, VERY good indeed!
And those Marines. That tweet from James Webb that Yves supplied us is not to be missed. I read this with jaw agape:
There’s more in the Tweet, including Webb’s point about the usefulness of beach landings as demonstrated by MacArthur at Inchon as he slipped behind North Korean lines.
I think one takeaway from the Ukraine War is that drone swarm technology and tactics leaves any organized troop movement like an amphibious landing vulnerable. An attempt to take Kharg Island would, I think, be suicidal. Certainly, any attempt to go ashore on the mainland would be.
Some Russians suggest US Marines study closely the battle of Krynky, which lasted about 9 months and Ukraine lost over 1000 killed just to hold a few ruins on the Dniepr riverfront.
An MEU deployment looks about as stupid as one can get. Its 20C technology that might have worked against Venezuela but what is it going to do here? I suppose it may play well in the US press but I have a bit of a problem seeing it doing anything useful otherwise.
At the moment the US armada is standing off about 700-1,000 kilometres from the southern Iranian coast. What are they going to do, jump into the assault boats and helicopters and go roaring towards the Iranian coast a mere 700km away? Should only take 2 or 3 days, /sarc.
And what are they going to do if they get there? There is not all that much there that I can see. If they land around Chabahar, it is only maybe 1500km as the crow flies to Tehran through country that looks like it would challenge a mountain goat in some places.
I can see a local army or IRGC commander summoning a subordinate and saying, “Take 100 men and a thousand drones and get rid of those idiots”.
My take on this Marine deployment is for them to be on standby in case of need to help evacuate American diplomats and other American citizens in the Gulf Area, should that become necessary. This is fairly standard practice for the Corps in such circumstances.
Kipling:
Into the Island of Kharg
Rode the Five Thousand
That’s not Kipling you’re trying to paraphrase, but Tennyson who wrote ‘The Charge of the Light Brigade.’
Kipling — very much on the other hand — wrote the likes of this: –
COMMON FORM
If any question why we died,
Tell them, because our fathers lied.
And this:
A DEAD STATESMAN
I could not dig: I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?
And this:
A SON
My son was killed while laughing at some jest. I would I knew
What it was, and it might serve me in a time when jests are few.
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Epitaphs_of_the_War
Thank you, getting it right is important.
I don’t think getting it right on some academic matter is that important.
What prompted me to respond to you was that Kipling was a more complicated figure than the imperialist cartoon version of him implies, and has, arguably, more of the best short stories in the English language to his name than any other writer I’m able to think of at this moment, (yes, I struggle to accept that) as well as one great novel, Kim.
Orwell’s essay on Kipling is worth reading if you haven’t. Orwell’s first paragraph in it ends: –‘ Kipling is a jingo imperialist, he is morally insensitive and aesthetically disgusting. It is better to start by admitting that, and then to try to find out why it is that he survives while the refined people who have sniggered at him seem to wear so badly.’
https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/rudyard-kipling/
And Orwell then spends another 6,000 words, more or less, explaining why Kipling was a great artist. Though he struggles with it and is wrong on some things, forex writing: ‘Kipling belongs very definitely to the period 1885-1902. The Great War and its aftermath embittered him, but he shows little sign of having learned anything from any event later than the Boer War. ‘ No. Some of Kipling’s late are quite dark, yes, but also remarkably modernist; also, Orwell thinks that The Light That Failed is Kipling’s solitary novel. It is not; Kim is the one to pay attention to.
The Parable of the Old Man and the Young
So Abram rose, and clave the wood, and went,
And took the fire with him, and a knife.
And as they sojourned both of them together,
Isaac the first-born spake and said, My Father,
Behold the preparations, fire and iron,
But where the lamb for this burnt-offering?
Then Abram bound the youth with belts and straps,
And builded parapets and trenches there,
And stretchèd forth the knife to slay his son.
When lo! an Angel called him out of heaven,
Saying, Lay not thy hand upon the lad,
Neither do anything to him. Behold,
A ram caught in a thicket by its horns;
Offer the Ram of Pride instead of him.
But the old man would not so, but slew his son,
And half the seed of Europe, one by one.
I think the big information of the morning was a report that Iran would allow any oil to pass that is paid in yuan. Which goes to the petro-dollar and the core of Western financial control.
That is in the post. It is only one Iranian official on CNN, as opposed on Iranian media, which would be much more serious. This at this point is trolling but it could become a plan.
Not that you were engaging in this but a HUGE pet peeve of mine is the way anti-globalists abjectly misrepresent why the dollar remains the dominant global currency even though our share of global GDP continue to fall. It does NOT have to do with trading of goods. Period. Trade related transactions represent 3% ot 7% of total foreign exchange transactions. That includes all the oil trade.
The reason the BRICS’ and friends’ move to enter into bi-lateral trade and avoid the dollar was significant NOT for its impact on dollar dominance but for its role in evading our misuse of dollar dominance, as in imposing sanctions.
Financial markets have extreme network effects. Traders seek venues high transaction volumes to get best execution and minimal trading costs. That works strongly against any near-term challenge to the dollar. Look at the Eurozone, a perfectly reasonable alternative. Has that made any real inroads in the 20+ years of its existence? No.
China wants the bennies of having the reserve currency without accepting the obligation of running regular trade deficits (which = exporting jobs) and abandoning capital controls.
Oil will not actually be priced in yuan if Iran does impose this requirment, even if the transactions are denominated in yuan. Oil hedging is critical to oil traders and investors and all the deep hedging markers are in dollars. China and the Saudis set up some sort of yuan oil futures exchange, IIRC in 2022, which has gone all of nowhere.
So this trade will be priced in dollars but the payment will be made in the yuan-equivalent value.
This is still important, but not for the reason you likely imagine: it will set up yuan payment mechanisms with Iran which will greatly boost its ability to evade US and UN dollar-based sanctions
Sorry to have missed that. Reading, posting in coffee break at work.
It might be just a mention, troll now, but as the world is increasingly faced with a global depression, versus continued control by Western bankers, an option that will become increasingly inevitable.
Oops your expanded reply came up with my new post. Yes, some ver
version of global exchange will eventually have to replace the dollar.
As I like to point out, as states function as social super organisms, government is the nervous system, while money and banking work as blood and the circulation system. We have come to understand that government works best as a public utility, but haven’t yet come to see the same principle applies to banking.
So if there ever did become a global currency, it would have to wait until an actual multipolar system is developed, but the current temper tantrum of the West is certainly showing the limits of our current system.
It might be politics all the way down, but it’s economics all the way up.
No, when the dollar goes we are not likely to have a successor global currency. We have explained why in our repeated explanations of why the bancor is na ga happen. It would require a surrender of sovereignity.
And if a country was thinking about whether or not surrendering currency sovereignty is a good idea…well, just look at Greece. But Italy has gone into a more quiet, subtle, long-term economic decline, too. It looks like Germany and France may catch up to the level of decline seen in Southern Europe.
In a scenario where the GFC breaks out with those countries still having their currencies intact, I think they could have devalued and finessed their way out of trouble without nearly as much social destruction and de-industrialization that has taken place.
My SWAG is it will occur in a black swan event and will be replaced by gold (inefficiencies and all the other legion of problems aside) as the only thing everyone can agree on in the immediate turn. A small and very limited nuclear war, for example with EMPs erasing lots of e-records (big nuclear war and it will be wampum- sea shells replacing the dollar, and chickens).
Caution is merited, the IRGC is running the show and has reversed even the foreign minister; however, many pundits prefer to run with rumor (or trolling) as it gives them something to opine on. Responding as seven of nine – Irrelevant! is a very short youtube video.
Excellent and succinct summary of reserve currency inertia particularly in highly financialized markets!
I know. I wish we had the corresponding Yves Smith YouTube ‘splainer video. Imagine it! with the usual ‘spainer styles, graphics and sound effects and Yves’ plain talk and technical authority. Could share it with all those bores that keep sending me videos from metallurgists, anti-fiat types, BRICS boosters and anyone who tries to explain the petrodollar.
The news about the MEU reminds me of the Gallipoli campaign.
I wonder if this whole deal about Kharg Island is a result of Keith Kellogg getting into Trump’s ear again. I heard a quick mention of what would be involved in trying to take this island and the rest is easy to put together. Can’t get ships anywhere near this island so it would have to be a helicopter assault. Of course the Chinese and the Russians would see this huge force being put together and so would give the Iranians a heads up. A lot of helicopters would be taken out by Iranian defenses sending those troops into the sea where hopefully you would have rescue boats ready to go. Supposing that you land a force on Kharg Island. Then what? They would be hammered by drones, artillery, missiles and anything else that the Iranians have waiting for them. But how do you supply those troops? How do you bring in replacements and send out dead and wounded? How do you deliver the huge amount of munitions that would be needed along with food, water and all the other supplies that they would need? Yeah, this definitely sounds like one of Keith Kellogg’s ideas.
Danny Davis did a really excellent (12 mins) analysis of a potential Kharg invasion last night after the Kharg bombing news dropped.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDMOZNEfgRU
How about “American force gets hammered” is not a bug, but actually a feature?
They’re rolling the dice on the home front becoming enraged at how “their troops” were massacred by “those evil [insert term here]” and “REMEMBER KHARG ISLAND!!!!!” is the battle cry for the continuation and further escalation of the war.
Of course, the reason it’s a dice roll is that “Kharg” may be Farsi for “Dien Bien Phu.” ;-)
I expect it’s common knowledge Kharg will be a death march amongst those deployed to it.
And that this fact is quietly enraging the sub-star ranks which include many of the most moral and principled people I know.
This could bring transformation home, but only after the disaster.
B Panga mentioned last night that those marines are two weeks away. That’s a long time in this environment.
Daniel Davis also said there are already loads of marines in-theater, and those 5000 are not game changers – they could launch Operation Kharg Lemming sooner.
Would be enlightening if they were ultimately used in support of the Israeli efforts in South Lebanon.
My guess is that this is about “showing resolve” and hoping that either there’s a doable mission by the time they arrive or that things are somehow over by then.
Thank you both. It’s been hard to get much of an assessment of the ground war save for the official Hezbollah reports. This leads me to believe it’s not going so well for team z. I’ve seen official statements from the IRGC describing supporting operations with some strategic target shooting as well.
Is Trump ready for large numbers of US casualties?
What he said.
If I’m in the Israel First (while profiteering) camp and my goal is to draw the U.S. into a glue-trap-sticky war, I might look for a way to use a Foxed-up proxy close to the administration, maybe a K Street general like Keane or Kellogg, to talk up seizure of Kharg Island. When blood spills, as it will by the barrel, and Fox World doubles-down with no-reverse-gear shrieking, count on it to be cheer-led and force-fed by the same K Street “experts” and media shills. The coverage will be like imaginary voices inside a psychotic’s head, except we can all hear them by tuning in to Fox, and certain predisposed regular viewers may actually believe what they’re saying, a certain occupant of the Oval Office prominent among them. It’s a self-fanning s***storm.
It’s a sorry state of affairs, but if DJT isn’t entirely delusional he’ll gin up a way out before soldiers die and markets tank. If he doesn’t the Epstein files will seem a welcome “Look! Squirrel!” distraction from the Epic Fubar he’ll be in for.
That works when you are existentially defending your country. “Remember the Kharg to forget Epstein” could have the opposite effect. Trump is losing the narrative (cause he never had a coherent narrative – just we be winnin bigly – cuz everyone loves a winner).
“Remember Tet!” No, it didn’t quite work that way.
Tactics is getting troops in. Operations is keeping troops there. Strategy is getting troops out.
Based in Ukraine, NATO Doctrine stops at “getting troops in.”
+1 on the “please take care of yourself Yves” chorus 🙏🏼❤️
—
On India/Hormuz:
There were two stories I saw yesterday. 1 is the debunked “an Indian tanker got through” thing Yves mentions in the post above.
The 2nd was based on separate quotes from the Iranian ambassador to India. It was a response to a question in a scrum type situation, not a statement. Hard to know how much if anything to take from it.
“Responding to a question on whether Iran would allow safe passage to India, Fathali said “… “… Yes, because India is our friend. You will see it within two or three hours. We believe that Iran and India share common interests in the region…” (Times of India)
Video of this (ANI / twitter)
There’s an actual presser [YouTube / ANI] with the same Iranian ambassador, answering the question a bit differently [excerpt of an machine made transcript I tidied v slightly]:
Amb: As I said through my speech, we have a good relation with the government of India and uh all high ranking officials talked yesterday with the Indian government and high ranking officials and uh I think that we should uh pray to Allah to remove all the obstacles from the in different fields and uh as your um question we tried our best to remove the problems and uh I think that you can see in the near future uh good news in this case. Thank you.
Reporter: So there are conversations with external affairs ministers of both the countries.
What are the conversations happening?
Would you like to share some details?
Amb:They have uh a good conversation and Mr.
Modi and Mr. Pezeshkian believe that they should try their best…. [Doesn’t say anything concrete after this]
—-
Conclusion: talks are ongoing but “obstacles” still need to be removed? What exactly Iran would ask for in terms of concessions is above my paygrade.
This is the thing I find that I cannot explain to people in a way that gets them to believe it. Iran has not ‘closed’ the Gulf. The truth is much more embarrassing. Iran CONTROLS the Gulf. Iran can turn it on and off as it likes. That’s why, for example, the stories about Iran ‘mining’ the Gulf are horse excrement. Why would Iran destroy its most valuable asset?
And that any attempt by US to break Irans grip requires us making war on third parties.
Genghis Don: Zugzwang genius!
Move 1: Shut the Persian Gulf..
Move 2: Eliminated US air defenses
Move 3: Unsanctioned Russian oil.
Zugzwang in three moves!
They also said that Putin blew the NS1 & NS2…
The quality of the propaganda has gotten unbelievably shoddy. But when the Lie Factories control every media outlet, over half the population just nods their heads and repeats what the last “news” show stated as unvarnished truth. There was a lot of media lying during the Vietnam War, but at least some truth got out. They’re apparently determined to never let that happen again.
Correct, the first part of the story was false. It was nevertheless boosted by the lackey Indian media as evidence of Modi government’s diplomatic prowess.
Mohammad Fathali’s statements were backed by action on Iran’s part, with a small concession of letting two Indian LPG ships through the straight. This time too, the lackey Indian media boosted it as Modi government’s immaculate diplomatic skill, but the situation in India is so dire, I am tempted to believe Iran showed mercy. After all, 4 separate phone calls were made by different levels of government, and Modi suddenly found the tongue to feel sorry about Iran, even if he still kept clear of reproaching US, or taking responsibility for sinking of Iranian naval ship off Indian cost. Over 20+ Indian oil tankers still remain stuck in the straight.
As to Iran’s asks’, this was made quite clear by Araghchi. Iran wants India to use its chairmanship (read, Trojan Horseship) of BRICS to condemn US-Israel attacks on Iran. India has not yet complied, and I doubt it will.
https://x.com/DevirupaM/status/2032348799524573195
but will the IRGC agree? Will Supreme leader Khamenei, who vowed revenge for all martyrs (the Iranian sailors killed for visiting India) agree to letting India escape an actual revenge (real pain) for the families of the murdered? Collapsing the Indian economy so Modi is hated, especially is oligarchs become poor, might fit the bill as a lesson to future Indian leaders – even the right-wing pro-genocidal ones.
The governing system in Iran in peacetime is complex, in wartime it is different – mosaic defense – each IRGC provincial commander has autonomy (!!) – and I see continuous evidence that many in the west (markets and pundits) miss this key point. Policy changes require consensus from many actors – and the current policy is revenge and a new security arrangement in the Gulf.
Anyone has any insightful takes on the trending “Ben Gvir and Netanyahu are dead”?
Someone who should know better sent me a fake on Netanyahu (which does not mean he is alive but that many of the claims are poorly substantiated). There are rumors about Ben-Gvir having been badly injured.
This is a bit of an aside, but the issues with deep fakes and AI-generated or altered videos are now so pervasive that the court system is proposing to change the way video evidence is admitted.
I am not sure what the standard for that would be; maybe preponderance of the evidence.
https://natlawreview.com/article/new-evidence-rule-707-would-set-standards-ai-generated-courtroom-evidence
Note that the burden would be on the party attempting to introduce video evidence to show that it was not faked or altered.
If this rule goes through, it is going to have huge effects on what can be admitted as evidence in a trial. I would argue it is necessary in the world we live in today.
I’m often surprised how fast video generation is going, and how good it has become. Huge implications, as you say.
I was definitely surprised when I said, ‘Finally, a good song’, to get the response from the person who selected the song: ‘It’s mine. I wrote it with Suno [free AI app].’ He’d been playing endless rap, then switched to reggae.
I may have the attribution wrong, but I seem to remember that one of Lambert’s pithy pearls, along with the rules of neoliberalism, was: “Digital evidence is not evidence”. Truer now more than ever.
I knew someone who worked on analog video recorders 35 years ago. He said that digitised video (MPEG1, MPEG2 back then) was not considered witness level evidential by UK courts because of the lossy encoding. Of course, resolutions were much lower for cameras back then too.
I seem to recall that one of the treasures of the Epstein files is that someone linked to Israeli defense, perhaps Ehud Barak, was trying to get funding for software that would manipulate CCTV output to erase someone from footage (to exonerate him) or to make someone appear in order to implicate him.
Many years ago it was asserted that it was the person submitting the evidence had to prove his reliability/truthfulness in a court of law. This was in the early days of image analysis using software on digital images, using various types of microscopes. The presenter probably still had to interpret the images for a jury, still under oath (I am thinking especially of material failure, causing transportation accidents).
Thanks. One might think that they are just 2 pieces of the zionist project but while Khamenei’s death rallied Iran I feel if Netanyahu is dead that will strongly demoralize Israel.
” if Netanyahu is dead”
More broadly from the world’s perspective, it’s a little like the old joke that asks, What do you call 500 lawyers at the bottom of the sea?”
Mikado, “I’ve Got a Little List“
There are commentators pointing out that Netanyahu’s son stopped his manic intra-daily tweeting five days ago and has been silent ever since. The speculation is a family crisis….
But would that do anything to change the current situation? There are several other hard liners ready to insist that all of Bibi’s projects continue. The Iranians would need to visit the same kind of house clearing that we subjected their leadership to in order to prevent the politicians in Israel from forming a ditto coalition. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Is anybody else finding it hard to keep up with all of the gaslighting?
There’s a claim that Netanyahu is in a coma, and that the video released of him is AI. I’ve seen images of the video where he clearly has six fingers. Was that image actually part of the video? I don’t know. And if it was maybe it’s a mistake, maybe they used AI to edit a real video. Maybe the images are not part of the video, but were released to try and embarrass critics.
Truth is the first casualty of war, I know, but I feel compelled to check nearly everything, and it’s exhausting and impossible.
Agreed. It’s maddening, and it’s not going to stop until someone pulls the plug on all the clankers. Seeing data centers in the gulf getting dinged does give one a ray of hope that it could happen.
That is one of the many reasons I am so grateful for the existence of this site and its many scrupulous and knowledgeable commenters. I could not possibly approach their level of effort and discernment.
Thanks to Yves and All. Long may you thrive.
Netanyahu is alive. He did use a cosmetic filter to make himself look better in the meeting from the bunker he is in. Earlier versions of those filters did generate artifacts as the described 6 fingers. It could also be an artifact of low quality footage being upscaled or low FPS footage being interpolated to higher FPS. The last can give artifacts with fast moving objects being in markedly different locations between in two connected frames.
I caught up on yesterday’s comments. raspberry jam, who did us all a big favor by watching the entire speech, and who is also expert in AI, said it was not AI (too many fast movements, too many flashes of emotion) but his appearance was enhanced somehow.
I’m not a heavy AI expert but I found the six finger thing fishy just because the modeling has improved greatly since the days of body horror slop and Israel being such a part of this tech world would no doubt be closer to the bleeding edge in such things.
This site again with more thoughtful thoughts on the military/strategic aspects of the war–Clausewitz and Sun Tzu
https://indi.ca/there-basic-facts-of-war/
———————-
“Despite all the technology, warfare hasn’t changed that much from Alexander marching all over. You still have to show up. As Clausewitz said,
An army composed simply of artillery, therefore, would be absurd in war. An army consisting simply of cavalry is conceivable, but would have little strength in depth. An army consisting simply of infantry is not only conceivable, but would be a great deal stronger. The degree of independence of the three branches, then, is infantry, cavalry, artillery.
American war is an absurdity in this sense, it’s basically cavalry delivering artillery from afar. Clausewitz said such a structure would be A) absurd and B) have little strength in depth, which basically describes America. America is able to topple many governments, but unable to conquer anywhere. Clausewitz’s very basic principles predict this, when he says “it [artillery] must always be covered by infantry, since in itself it is unable to engage in hand-to-hand combat. If there is too much artillery, and the troops detailed to cover it are in consequence not strong enough at every point to beat off the enemy, guns are easily lost.” You can see the results in Afghanistan, which they occupied for decades, but then fled, losing much of their armor.”
——————————
Of course empires like the British in India sought to deal with the above by getting proxies to do their fighting for them but for that they had to “show up” and gain a detailed knowledge of the target country. Whereas America’s elites have become too lazy to even make the effort they made in Vietnam and want the glory of conquest while still hanging out in their Florida resorts or DC TV studios (see Graham, Lindsey). In our decline we aren’t even good at evil.
A cavalry attack that didn’t go too well. Must have been the lack of air supremacy.
I watched that film last night coincidentally.
Still a good one.
I think one way we can know how the war is going is news reporting not only they are not showing what is happening in gulf and Israel I feel like the war have total blackout like there is no war at all. You guys remember when Ukraine war started it was everywhere but this war the public act like it don’t exist.
If a tree falls in the forest and no one saw it…
Alternatively, if a building collapses and no one looked for bodies, did anybody get killed? (Jenin. 2002), Libya (2011), Gaze (2003-2026)
Embubblement. Made my freaking day
Sounds innocuous, too, isn’t it ?
“You know… For kids!”
Ah yes, but if they grow up without ever having to experience the consequences of bursting, you get The Donald: self righteous psychosis.
Indeed. Let’s make it PG-13, then.
Thank you for this , the best Cohen brothers movie
Me too. I made sure to scroll down to see if someone else noticed it, “embubblement”. I also learned the term “enshitification” on this site.
Trump in 1988 [not a typo!] advocating capturing Kharg (quoted in a delusional Telegraph article advocating Operation Kharg Suicide today)
“They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools,” Trump told The Guardian. “One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
When I mentioned attacking US Carriers with Stealthy underwater drones yesterday I was not as clear as I should have been.
I meant to emphasize that hitting the screws or propellers directly with a 25 KG warhead would disable the ships.
Which it would.
Those propellers are both massive and precisely machined, damaging them could very well damage the drive shaft and the reduction gears.
Think of what happens when the prop of a speedboat hits a rock or a partially submerged log…
And then we’d find out what “dead in the water” means.
The Thai tanker that was hit was hit in the stern just to port of the rudder….
Very much like what befell the famous German battleship Bismarck in WWII, arguably the most fearsome warship on the planet at the time;
The best laid plans…
The bigger they are…
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face…
And, I bet all the toilets on the Bismark worked perfectly right up until the end.
I’m surprised there’s not more coverage of 5 refueling planes being hit in Saudi Arabia. I’m makes me think it either didn’t happen or its so embarrassing that there’s a direct edict from the Pentagon to not cover it (I’m leaning towards the latter).
Larry Johnson (w/Stanislav) was quite explicit on its veracity from his sources – it’s a natural early logistical chain target for Iran. I also have heard Larry Johnson comment that this has already happened previously at US bases (they are literal bombs, and drones are a “lit fuse” that can fly in under hardened hangars). After all, the US, so supremely proud of its air defenses based on Raytheon marketing, knew it would not need to worry at all. The plastic and wood drones fly the deck through the US radar blindspots (of the working radars) – for example, the mobile radar (ship-based) in the Med seem unable to help Israel’s air defense successfully intercept drones or missiles. US ship A/D systems are pre-drone – today a 15 kg warhead placed precisely (real-time satellite feed) can cancel an aircraft carrier (hit the elevator) – This was impossible previously with systems designed for large metal missiles and warheads.
Russian-provided satellite connectivity on drones is a game-changer. If Iran has the equivalent of Geran 3s (small jet engine), there is no western defense that is going to stop them (Stanislav again, Ukraine experience) from taking out parked refuelers (Shahed range is 2500-km range) even in Sicilia and Romania.
Flying refuelers from northern Europe would be a logistical nightmare. Refuelers are an easy target (especially during refueling), which needs to occur 100 or so miles from Iran (350-mile range for an F35).
I still believe Iran is saving its heavy A/D for when the US has to fly B2s over target once standoff munitions are exhausted (per Ukrainian war doctrine).
I found the claims that they would be repaired to be totally incredible (in the most literal sense). Feels to me like there’s zero chance that an unprotected airbase in the middle of the desert is staffed with the skilled labor and parts required to repair a highly specialized airplane which has taken damage from a missile. This isn’t an engine swap on an Army Jeep.
Repairs on site sounds like an excellent double tap opportunity.
Israel planning massive ground invasion of Lebanon, officials say
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/14/israel-lebanon-ground-invasion-hezbollah
What if Hezbollah sends the same message that Iran sent to the US-
‘We are waiting for you.’
And they must have depleted troops in Gaza to move them to Lebanon. Will Hamas re-enter the chat?
Bring on the 5000 US Marines..
Axios were also the ones that first reported a “kurdish” ground operation last week, before quickly walking that back.
Not saying Israel isnt planning a massive operation, but at this point the commentary from Axios should be seen as representing the most optimistic/delusional/outright manipulative versions of reality that the US and Israel want us to hear.
When a reporter goes to work for Axios, they have to – virtually – take an oath of loyalty to Israel and not attack it. That is the way that Axios’s owner wants it. Expect the same when CNN is taken over by the Ellisons. In fact, Trump has said that he expects criticisms by CNN to die down when the Ellisons take over.
Larry Johnson with Pascal Lottaz
– Update: US Middle-East Bases DESTROYED. Israel Defenseless
yesterday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yogVg6GFSeQ
TC 15:00
depleteted PATRIOTS PAC3, allegedly 4600 were fired since 2015.
If 2 are used against one missile that would mean 2300 incoming, while RU alone claimed 12k fired missiles since 2022.
One should add that 2 PAC3 won´t do for 1 missile. So it´s way less. Lets assume it´s 10:1.
TC 19:00
Johnson maintains that Iran will have produced a nuke in three weeks.
TC 37:30
Saudis apparently have told US, they would not join them in any fight and would rather not want them there any more.
(Allegedly someone in the knowing told Johnson)
So Iran tries to make clear its not targetting the Gulf states as such which is why desalinaton etc. are not yet hit.
I assume ISR will try to push Iran to do just that.
TC 41:00
Johnson believes Trump will actually be the first POTUS to be impeached and convicted.
He also claims that in case of US nukes on Iran, RU/CHINA/NK would nuke too.
So there is a risky triangle of goals and means:
Iran eventually wants Israel dismantled – Israel has its WMD for this case/Iran to counter will have their own – to pull off this goal, Iran will use their chokehold on global economy.
Of course you do not just dismantle a state.
I wonder how that plan is supposed to look like.
And neither China nor RU would support that.
TC 44:00
This could go on e.g. 6 months until US is willing to talk.
Iran´s main demands: as much uranium enrichment as they want + reparations.
Minor correction re FT’s Gillian tett – I think she’s moved on from the US job – now head of some Oxford college, emeritus position at FT and frequent BBC commentator. Fully agree with your assessment of her merits
https://www.kings.cam.ac.uk/people/gillian-tett
Provost of King’s College Cambridge. Biggest job as head of a Cambridge college there is. Great work if you can get it: Provosts Lodge to live in, brilliant conversation if you want to eat at High Table, just about anyone will take your call….
Mind you, I think she was a worthy candidate.
Some thoughts on the quality of the propaganda.
In reading today’s installment, I was tracking the delivery of the official U.S. viewpoint. As Yves Smith notes up top:
However, the reality that the US has put the global economy at risk of a potential depression and is on track to having its military largely if not entirely run out of the Middle East is still likely beyond what key figures in the Administration can accept, cognitively and practically.
Observations:
—The Truth Social post by Trump made me wonder if it was in fact written by Trump. The erratic capitalization Comes Across like Pseudo-German. The use of all-caps makes me think that the writer is some twelve-year-old who uses circles or little hearts to dot the letter i. Has it ever been verified what extent Trump writes his own bilgewater?
—Rifat Jawaid at Janta Ka is particularly attentive to the delivery of the propaganda. It may be that not having English as his mother tongue, he pays close attention to words, tone, gesture, and stance. (I sometimes have to do so in listening to Italian.)
—Jawaid features Pete Hegseth, and as I watch Not-Alpha Pete and gauge his cues, I am not sure what we are dealing with. This guy is desperate — for what? He comes off like Biden — three functioning brain cells that lust for power. What he had to say was pure ridiculousness and cliché. Princeton and Harvard — wowsers — what’s in the water there?
—Jawaid then features Scott Bessent. Whoah. A man way out of his depth — and a Yalie. Whatever Bessent got dragged into, he came out of only to issue propaganda. Remember that rule in politics about not going after the kids? He just offered up his own little Tiffany-Begonia to the gods of war. Three functioning brain cells — all focused on lust for power. (Like Hillary “Inflict Pain” Clinton.)
—Too many media. Too many people deforming themselves for the media. Too many people who live to Give Good Quote. Nobody wins a war with those so-called arrows in their quiver.
—Not with a bang but with a whimper.
Meanwhile: for R&R, I will suggest this to Yves Smith: cognac.
And a Thai stick rather than a cigar. And if no beach, some ear buds and Emerson, Lake and Palmer’s “Three Fates” from the first album (As I recall, Yves is fond of EL&P.)
“Take A Pebble”
Just take a pebble and cast it to the sea,
Then watch the ripples that unfold into me
My face spills so gently into your eyes
Disturbing the waters of our lives
Shreds of our memories are lying on your grass
Wounded words of laughter are graveyards of the past
Photographs are grey and torn, scattered in your fields
Letters of your memories are not real
Wear sadness on your shoulders like a worn-out overcoat
In pockets creased and tattered hang the rags of your hopes
The daybreak is your midnight, the colours have all died
Disturbing the waters of our lives,
Of our lives, of our lives, lives, lives, lives
Of our lives
Take a Pebble
Emerson, Lake & Palmer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaYsgjn82GA
This video of them performing live in an empty Montreal Olympic Stadium (in two feet of standing snow!) was my very first favorite music video. Fanfare for the Common Man,1977.
Imagine having this and “Lucky Man” on your debut album! :)
I think the best way for Bibi to keep Trump on board is to promise that construction of the “Third Temple” will start the day after Iran capitulates and that it will be named “The Donald John Trump Third Temple”, ensuring that His name will live forever.
Seems to be Trump’s language style, HuffPo (that still around?) looked at it in 2024
Why Does Trump Do That Weird Capitalization Thing? Experts Dissect His Language Patterns.
Various interesting nuggets in this piece based on Israeli quotes and sources. One still has to wade through the delusion that the US/Israel are in control of the situation.
Israel’s fight to continue the war –
IDF trying to ‘buy time’ with the US and inflict as much damage as possible on Iran before Trump pulls out (Telegraph)
While allowing for the probability that Mr Trump’s comments are in part to calm the markets, they indicate that, at the very least, he is contemplating wrapping up hostilities with the regime still in power – possibly even within a fortnight. [BP: lol at the casual “wrapping up”]
In Israel, where Iran is almost universally regarded as an existential threat, this has not gone down well.
Sources have told The Telegraph that the IDF is trying to “buy time” with the Americans, to prolong the window of hostilities, but to inflict as much damage as possible before Mr Trump pulls out.
“We’re going beyond the military targets, trying to destabilise the regime in the way we said we were aiming to from the outset,” an Israeli source told The Telegraph, referring to its decision to bomb Iran’s oil refineries last week.
“If we have to go faster because the war might end soon, we go faster.”…
…Lt General Eyal Zamir, the IDF chief of staff, has reportedly made at least one phone call to Adml Brad Cooper, head of the US Central Command, to “buy time” for a more comprehensive destruction of Iran’s infrastructure…
…Another newspaper quoted a source as saying the US had given Israel a week to take out its most sought-after targets….
…One official told The Telegraph: “There is a growing acceptance that the popular uprising isn’t happening and regime change won’t take place for now.
“The priority is to hit as much as we can within the framework of hostilities.”…
…“They’re now framing this as part of a longer-term effort, ‘setting the conditions’, as they phrase it, for regime change at some point down the line, enabled by the damage of this campaign and the economic collapse.
“That’s partly a reflection of Trump’s unpredictability and the fact that he may want to call an end to the war soon, but it also reflects the fact that the Iranian regime has proved more resilient than predicted.”… [last sentence a hilarious understatement]
…Dr Ozcelik said one possible “off-ramp” that could be acceptable to both the White House and Mr Netanyahu is a ceasefire with Israel appointed as “enforcer, hawkishly monitoring Iranian violations of the agreement, such as efforts to reconstitute missile production sites, missile launchers, or other military capability”… [ Good luck with that! Reminiscent in its delusion of the discussions between Europe and Zekensky about ending the war with Russia]
She added: “In practice, this may look like the Israeli Air Force hits on Iranian targets sporadically based on intelligence gathering…[Iran has put up with this for years this and has zero incentive to accept a return to it]…
…A poll this week indicated overwhelming public support for the war: 73 per cent in favour of launching Operation Roaring Lion and 53 per cent having confidence in Mr Netanyahu’s conduct of it… [The madness/delusion runs deep]
Does the entire country have to be reduced to Gaza to make them wake up to themselves? The IDF has lost so their only solution is to try to turn Iran into another Gaza. But of course missiles fly both ways and if the IDF keeps it up, the Iranians may decide to hit every high rise building in Tel Aviv. The Israelis can only have this attitude because they know that the US is supporting them but if the US calls it quits, then they will have to face Iran alone and that my change public opinion.
So start up culture has so infected Israel that their military doctrine is now to move fast and break things? This will end well.
Is this reliable info? I have no particular reason to doubt it, but the propaganda is so heavy in general and the premise in the article that the US/Israel control the end of the conflict and what comes after so delusional, I wonder.
Does anyone have contacts in Israel that can give an update on the damage it is taking and any anecdata that isn’t crafted propaganda?
Thank you
ACF
Search “raspberry” in the past few days Iran threads here and you’ll find reports from commenter raspberry jam. They have a lot of insight into Israel.
To your question: I think it’s a mix of hopium, and delusion with some expectation management but also shows what the Israelis are telling themselves. Behind closed doors maybe a different matter but they do seem to believe their own propaganda.
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/israel-facing-defeat-senior-former
Helicopters are incredibly fragile. We lost between 4000 and 8000 in Viet Nam. I saw one shot down with small arms fire myself during combat.
Thank you for this and the continuing coverage and analysis of this horrible mistaken war.
With regard to a purpose or goal, surely there was never any clear or considered outcome other than dominance and the siezing of assets, with a soupçon of “regime change” thrown in as virtuous seasoning. Everyone involved seems simply to have assumed that of course “our” military could somehow do all this easily and quickly, rather like Venezuela.
Trump is sick, mentally. As his niece Mary wrote, age and power have made his condition extremely dangerous and more volatile. This is not dementia or the physical failing that comes with old age. This man is and has always been driven by uncontrolled impulse and sociopathy. His family wealth has cushioned him throughout his life of pillaging and looting. Now he is ensconced as President and seems to be completely surrounded by willing lickspittles and fellow sociopaths.
He is inherently unstable and unfit, but his very volatility and impulsivity is obviously attractive to far too many.
Re: quashed subpoenas
You gotta love the way Taco rat-[family blogged] himself with his prejudicial rage-posts against Jerome Powell.
He gave Judge Boasberg more than enough rope with which to hang him. And Tillis is providing the icing on the cake. We may have Jerome Powell to kick around a lot longer.
The Trump DoJ is so incompetent, it can’t indict a ham sammich!
About getting rid of Powell.
The Fed chair doesn’t set the rates. Being the Fed chair is being the public spokesperson of the Fed. It just so happens that Powell is also the head of the committee that sets the rates and can’t be booted from that position until his term is up, the other option being him leaving voluntarily.
Yes, and that makes me realize that this is all kayfabe or maybe World Wrestling Federation-level stuff.
Taco needs a fall-guy for the economy, so he demonizes a soft-talking lawyer who never really offended anyone in his professional life.
The honorable Judge Boasberg probably saw this angle too, and said, enough, stop wasting the court’s time.
Please forgive a tangent off topic from the kinetic war, and also if this has been posted before, but I found this interview by Mishal Husain of Vali Nasr, author of The Dispensable Nation and former advisor to Obama’s State Dept really illuminating. Nasr was born in Iran and lived there until the hostage crisis in 1979. An excerpt:
As to his vision of Iran’s “rightful place in the world”,
I am also deeply grateful for Yves’ indispensable, relentless, and exhaustive coverage of this war.
Interview is here: https://archive.ph/2yroM
For that it just has to say two things: 1. Israel, you can kill all the Arabs in your midst and take all the land you want; 2. US, we’ll invest as much money we get from our resources and economy in US tresury and what else you need, our needs be damned. Oh, heah, no nukes and no missiles. You can shit on our heads whenever you want. Which the Arab sheikdomes have already agreed upon.
That Truth Social account is always in campaign mode. I doubt Trump or that site capable of presenting and discussing serious policy.
Look at it. When he makes some attempt to discuss the conflict, it’s written like he speaks on the campaign trail.
That’s in addition to precarious mental states.
He’s a strange sort of influencer.
Thanks his followers for paying attention, but never invites their opinion.
None of the usual ‘what do you think guys?’ or ‘do your own research’ bullshit.
But being the greatist ever president, in charge of the greatist ever administration and military, does allow you some leeway in ordering the greatist ever social media platform.
We do get thanked a lot for our attention to varying matters, tho ;-)
T sounds more and more like he’s speaking in the style he knows best: a real estate developer and pitchman addressing potential investors and clients.
Everything is superlative, big, beautiful, (and loud) etc etc etc. / my 2 cents
pretty obvious if you’ve sold real estate or new/used cars(sarc-obv) – he just happened to roll a natural seven coming down the escalator – curse that moment –
A sufficiently large Nuclear exchange would bring lasting peace to the Mideast.
And the rest of the World, as an added benefit we wouldn’t have to worry about global warming until Nuclear Winter turned into spring and the Lichen responded with joy.
Everything someday will be gone except silence
Earth will be quiet again
Seas from clouds will wash off the ashes of violence
Left as the memory of men
There will be no survivors my friend
(House at Pooneil Corners)
Recorded on a NYC rooftop in ’68.
Bumper sticker seen in Oregon: “After the Rapture, we’ll have the earth to ourselves.”
Wrong. You’ll have to share it with the Catholics.
Wholesale destruction of oil production facilities in the Gulf region is underway.
Pro-Israeli Neocons led US government may well want the whole oil infrastructure of Gulf countries to be destroyed.
Long cherished Israeli project to destabilise its Muslim neighbourhood will have been realised.
US would remain energy secure, while the rest of the world economy will suffer. This could well be a perverse way, MAGA vision will sought to be realised. US now also controls Venezuelan oil, potentially richest in the world by volume. This too could be used as instrument of US hegemony in an oil scarce world. Some important manufacturing in Europe and Asia might well be tempted to relocate to energy rich US.
As for hitherto oil rich countries of the Gulf, their golden age of wealth glut is most likely over. It will be quite long time, before the destroyed oil structures there could be resurrected. And by then very probably, many countries, of which India could be one, will have worked to move away from oil to other sources of energy, principal ones of which could be nuclear and solar.
After going through the onsetting alarming oil scarcity shock to their economy, ‘never again’ would be their guiding principle with regard to future. Shifting to alternative self-sufficing sources of energy will become a matter of urgency.
Countries and analysts are ruing closure of strait of Hormuz. But very soon, in a matter of days, oil facilities in the Gulf region, on either sides of the strait, will be so thoroughly destroyed, there won’t be much oil needing to be transported through it. So, a point of time could soon be approaching the strait will be open, but hardly much oil passing through.
In a word, US will just destroy the Gulf oil potential, declare victory and leave. And leave this in a situation of perpetual internecine sectarian war between Arab Sunnis and Iranian Shias. Both will be at each other’s throats forever.
This suits Israel entirely. Only caveat to above take is, whether Israel itself will emerge sufficiently safe and strong from this war to control the lands stretching from Nile to Euphrates.
I do believe that some in the administration believe this, but Naked Capitalism repeatedly showed that Trump’s Venezuelan oil dream is a pipe dream smoking hopium in a dementia-addled brain for at least the next few decades (and Chinese electrification) makes it irrelevant afterwards). Big oil told him to his face. Seems a lifetime ago, but it was only a month or so!
Maybe I’ll find it, but there was one interpretation of big oil’s response to mean they just wanted more guarantees. It was a dog whistle that it wasn’t enough of a regime change yet for them to be comfortable.
National Guard troops are quietly being sent to the ME. Have you read much about this in the MSM? Here’s Jimmy Dore with a readout. I started the clip at the beginning of his related remarks. Jimmy’s comments part ends when Kurt appears and the conversation take another turn. utube.
https://youtu.be/kzleL_RH9gU?t=3797
a gem from Stanislave Krapivnik with the Duran Alex’s this morning – the US was so confident of its air defenses they never build bunkers at its bases in the middle east. No bunkers!
Also, with Wilkerson, mentions again the 20-30 maintenance hours per F35 flight hour – means a F35 is down for 100-150 hours (1 week!) after a five hour flight – with maintenance proprietary and done by specialized technicians.
re: “… the US was so confident of its air defenses they never build bunkers at its bases in the middle east. No bunkers!”
Were the US planners so confident in air power alone they managed to create a new Maginot Line ?
per Wiki: ” …, the line has since become a metaphor for expensive efforts that offer a false sense of security”
Air power is an impervious defense in their imaginations? Even when experienced military officers, retired and serving, tried to tell them their plan assumed facts not in evidence? (T seems to be looking for people to throw under the bus for this adventure.)
I’ve looked for hours and failed to find the really interesting tweet thread on hardened bunkers for aviation. Basically, the historic US doctrine was don’t bother. If the bunker survives the attack, the rest of the airfield won’t!
Of course, the corollary is that you must be prepared to move your aircraft to dispersal fields at a moment’s notice. Leaving them on the tarmac at a primary base is suicidal.
Russian aircraft designed to take off from “rough” road surfaces, rather than US hangar queens’, and a distributed network of fuel, armament and maintenance vehicles seems to be the most robust way to go.
“20-30 maintenance hours per F35 flight hour”
Should be “20-30 maintenance man- hours per F35 flight hour”.
This is a system engineering specifications requirement for the mix of reliability/failure rates (MTBF, pretty darned high for US’ tactical aircraft. F-35 premiere!), fault isolation and identifying correct repair response and actual time to remove bad parts install correct replacement and prove the aircraft is again safe to fly per various specifications.
Some faults that add to the 20 to 30 man-hours can be put off, what they call flying but “not fully mission capable” (PMC).
It also includes allocation of depot level repairs to the F-35.
Some F-35’s come home ready to fly another mission; some come home with breaks that take a week of run time on the aircrafts’ on board (ALIS) diagnostics to find the bad part!
That said there are maintenance workers (whom I used to plan for) running themselves ragged making strike airplanes ready to be fueled and armed to go out and bomb police stations and hospitals for AIPAC!
Retired and do not have to resign!
For military maintenance, what is the parts bad from stock rate at? Do repair shops use the Jack Welch/GE/Soviet bin level production rate metric?
(Asking for a friend) ;)
Also, military maintenance staff are less experienced than airline staff. (Airlines have a lot of maintenance personnel with grey hair and hairy ears. So more tribal knowledge.) The troubleshooting documentation and aircraft fault monitoring for military aircraft is weak.
We can all hope Trump really is playing 12 dimensional chess, and because he’s grown tired of being called Bibi’s (family friendly blog), the Marine Expeditionary Unit is actually intending to take Israel and oust Bibi from power.
This, then allows Trump to negotiate ceasefire with Iran, and establishes another U.S. satrapy in the M.E.
I know, I know. Nahgonnahappen. But a guy can imagine.
That would be the single best use of US military power since WW2.
He might finally get his Nobel.
I’m calling it. Like the pizza index, this is a zero-day tell: https://x.com/angeloinchina/status/2032688178214412465?s=46
That and multiple minor hints like his AI-or-not video, Bessent’s shaken interview, vibes from Israel, etc. Bibi’s an ex-parrot.
I learnt today that my brother-in-law used to work with Bessent. Apparent their fund had a weekly call to exchange views but the only view was Scott’s so the call got downgraded to an email on transmit-only mode.
I was too keen to discuss Iran (BIL is positioned to make bank if oil falls – I was hoping to persuade him to reverse this bet) to ask how it felt seeing him cosplay as a leader of the free world.
Some more fuel for the fire:
https://x.com/iwasnevrhere_/status/2032919285622767682
If Yair stopped tweeting five days ago, it strikes me that it must have taken a few days before even Bibi’s closest advisers beleived that he hadn’t pulled a disappearing act.
Or maybe he has pulled a Kaufman. I hope they find a body. He’s a hell of a bogeyman.
There was a report in a tabloid, I think the US version of the Sun, that Yair was at risk of being assassinated (we did run that link but forgive me for not running it down again). He’s already a demonstrable coward by having gone to hide in Miami. He may simply have decided to lower his profile out of concerns for his safety.
Are you enjoying the lunatic asylum? Tighten up your straitjacket for the next act of lunacy!
“Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe. We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are. Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated. In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116227904143399817
“we have 100% defeated them but also we need help from other countries because we can’t defeat them. My navy is scared to come within 1500 km but hopefully the French are stupid enough to send their warships in.”
>We will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water.
Good luck destroying all those speedboats, the underground speedboat bases, the submarine UAVs, and the ability to launch mines/missiles from many km inland!
So much winning!
OMG, I missed in first reading that he says he hopes China will send warships to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Oh wow!
Iran has granted Chinese ships safe passage through the Strait.
WTH is T talking about?
12D chess wise, this is where spending the last 10 months mugging your closest allies with 51rst state threats or tariffs the likes of which nobody has ever seen before really starts to pay off.
Umm, let me re-think that a bit…
I think this, and everything up to this point, can be reasonably described as vibe warfare.
warfarce…
Some serious cope going on there. And the stable genius clearly has problems with the concept of 100%. Guessing that President of the MENSA organization won’t be on offer to him any time soon. Unless MENSA too has been overrun by sycophants and Zionists.
Contrasting NC vs MSM reporting. I am doing this now the days I have time to do it and using (because it is easier to me) El Pais as the MSM example. Both NC and El Pais report today on the US attacks on Kharg (Jarg in Spanish) island.
Context: context on Kharg island was provided before at NC (not at El Pais) when there was talk on a possible attack, even island occupation, by US forces. Today El Pais provides for the first time since the war started some context saying that about “90% of Iran’s crude is dispatched through Kharg installations” and it is economically “vital” to Iran. Here at NC we learn that Kharg might not necessarily be that “vital” and that the US would do better not attacking Kharg oil infrastructure and make things worse in the gulf with attacks on oil infrastructures more widespread. Reading El Pais you would believe that bombardments were something significant that might make Iran think twice and surrender to mighty US, while reading NC you get the idea that this is as much as the US can go without risking worse outcomes and that Iran won’t surrender to apparent shows of strength like this. El Pais is well behind the curve in its reporting and compares badly with NC.
May be the idea in the West that the US can still do something without risking the worst is held only by such bad MSM reporting.
It seems as if Western MSM workers so uninformed about Ukraine unsurprisingly in the same vein of cluelessness and prejuidice carry on with ill-informing the public now on matters in Iran. Those however have direct economic repercussions even more severe than SMO fallout. And they still seem to not get it. It´s sheer madness. Fool me once…
Perhaps it’s not just censorship but also the fact that major newspapers and TV networks now barely have the foreign bureaus that once were the key to their prestige. And Patrick Lawrence–one time major newspaper reporter–says that when, say, the NYT does have a large staff as in Israel they mostly file stories they could have gotten off the internet. These reporters feel they must maintain “access” to the powerful in the USA and Israel or these dutiful note takers would have nothing to report at all. It’s no longer as it once was about “scoops.”
Also, Bezos got rid of every reporter that was covering the Middle East so where do they get their information from now? Reading the columns of the New York Times? Twitter? Tik Tok? A friend of a friend?
Meanwhile, “the most trusted news purveyor” that is BBC has rolled out yet another “security consultant” on latest TV news, who went on to explain in great detail how after the initial bombardment, a small fleet of US helicopters would fly in from Kuwait (only a 20 min. flight), loiter in the air for 40, fire suppressing the Iranis resistance, providing cover for aeroplanes landing on the strip (there is one on Karg, didn’t you know), and doing some more random winning. This guy provided the important detail /s that the US commanders would not use the oil in the available tanks, for the dastardly Iranis are certain to spike it.
Dear Lord, I am paying for this mushroom abuse.
Almost all the mainstream media stenographers are reporting from Tel Aviv…but they can’t talk about anything that’s actually happening there. They can only report on what’s 1000 miles away, filtered through Centcom and Israeli censors!
The USA doesn’t have to take Kharg island, they just have to board and confiscate Iranian tankers as they exit the Straits.
Oh, you genius armchair warrior, tell me how they get ships in close enough to do that? The US navy is at a 1000 km away due to Iranian missiles being able to reach them otherwise.
At the mouth of the strait is asinine, I agree. But what if Trump chooses the blue water piracy option he used in Venezuela and simply seizes the tankers ferrying Iranian oil (meaning, the tankers themselves need not be Iranian) to nations that buy it?
It’s an honest question. I wonder how that would fare in the escalation ladder. Might game that in an LLM later today.
Can’t wait for the results. Ought to be brilliantly prescient.
Hey, I haven’t done it yet, and I never said I’d post the results here. Sarcasm well taken and deserved, though.
It’s just that I think it’s interesting and many factors are involved. Which is why I asked the human intelligence first.
On the one hand, seizing tankers may sound reasonable for US “planners” because it neutralises the benefits of being in Iran’s good graces, in the case of China and perhaps India. The message would be, “if you think helping or dealing with Iran would earn you oil shipments during the Hormuz blockage, think again”, and might cause allies and neutrals to increase pressure on Iran.
On the other hand, this may cause the countries that have their tankers seized, and those where the oil was destined to, to double down on helping Iran in the hope it ekes out a victory sooner and to prevent it from attacking the GCC countries’ oil infrastructure.
In my view, it would all depend on whether the countries involved believe the US or Iran are more likely to bend first.
Striking at ships of non-engaged parties risks expanding the war: the piracy is an act of war, but nominally weaker nations have been loth to put themselves in the US crosshairs.
The success of operation AIPAC FUBAR in threatening the rest of the world with starvation and depression while simultaneously putting US incompetence and material exhaustion on display is likely to color collective responses at some point.
And, to the extent Genghis Don embarks on such oil piracy, watch the price per barrel go through the roof.
Or maybe you could just think for yourself?
Just done it above. But I like asking LLMs because they may come up with factors I haven’t considered. None of this is my specialty. It was the same with my post on where radiation fallout would go in case of nuclear blasts in Iran and Israel: I know what westerlies are, and I know if they were predominant, Pakistan would be affected, but the LLM confirmed to me that they were dominant and as such added some confidence to my own notions.
As you can see, my reply above pretty much states the obvious. If someone can weigh in on the non-obvious, I’ll be much obliged.
They may come up with total BS, and if the subject matter is not your specialty, how would you know the difference?
Well, that also applies to whatever another human says here, no? I’ll use whatever cognitive skills I have to piece evidence together to form my opinion. If nothing else, it’s easy to check morsels of information like “westerlies are dominant in Central Asia”.
I don’t equate using an LLM with letting go of critical thinking. It’s not much worse than using Wikipedia. And if I get stuck with evidence I can’t verify, too bad but I’m at least not a decision maker who needs to be right. I just shelve it on my mind.
So basically tankers bound with oil to China.
China will just stop shipping stuff to the US. And any US merchant ships in the SCS or American assets in China would be fair game.
i dont remember if iran has subs…or how good they are…but china does, and theyre a big customer. wouldnt surprise me if any amurkin pirate fleet, showing the colors, has a chinese sub pop up in their midst.(seems like i remember this happening not al that long ago, during some exercise at sea)
Iran has subs and they have regional power projection range (Indian Ocean).
More to the point, opening the Straits of Hormuz by [checks notes] er, closing the Gulf of Oman would be quixotic even by Trump’s standards.
Oil would go through the roof and neutrals and allies of negituae affections would make bank.
Perhaps you may have seen the piece on how China can convert container ships to naval warfare bases? Put a few ship to ship missiles on a tanker (say 50) or Shahed equivalent drones and the US will find that its naval ships are very vulnerable. And irreplacable.
Submarines.
It would be trivial to track one down in the Indian Ocean and confiscate it, er, hijack it. But then what? If you took Chinese oil – i.e, destined for the PRC – then say good bye to g
allium, other processed rare earths, and the MIC’s magnets. Take India’s oil and you push them closer to China. Take no name third worlders and the price of oil goes ups for everyone in America.
I have some to the conclusion that this all ends later this year, whether by total war (nukes, too), Trump going full authoritarian and locking up everyone he doesn’t like, the complete takeover of the Dems of the legislature and his impeachment AND conviction, or a heart attack/stroke.
or a soft (or not so soft) coup. Agree it will not last to the end of the year. Look at how far things have evolved in two weeks.
Iran can last longer with no exports than Israel or House of Saud
Who started all of this insane psychopathic craziness? Not just the current war but all the insanity that’s been going on for the last 70 years? Seems like nobody wants to talk about that, or they’re not allowed to talk about that.
It was the British. They drew the map of middle east during the dying days of their decrepit empire, knowing it will cause conflict and wars and chaos, because that’s what they wanted. Can’t have a prosperous powerful “oriental” wog nation challenging their supremacy now, can we? And worst of all, it was they (jointly with US) who created Israel.
Creating Israel and letting these people (you know who) into high positions in your own society was like the greedy corporation in the “Alien” sci-fi series deliberately releasing the Xenomorph egg. They, like the British, thought this will serve their interests and they will profit from it. Not fully understanding what they have wrought. In the sci-fi movies, the alien Xenomorph goes out of control and ends up destroying the corporate flunkies and everything else. Kind of like what’s happening in the real world.
You might enjoy the Michael Hudson article posted today:
Michael Hudson: Persia’s Monopoly Concessions to Britain, 1872-1901
Two books I’ve read in the last couple of years on what WWI wrought in the Middle East:
The political drama version: ‘A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East’, David Fromkin
The action-adventure version: ‘Lawrence in Arabia: War, Deceit, Imperial Folly and the Making of the Modern Middle East’, Scott Anderson
Actually, we did it at the height of our Empire. :-)
Our policy in the Middle East was all about keeping Russia, France and Germany out of India and the sea lanes to India. We also wanted the oil for the Royal Navy. And we saw Israel as our Ulster in the middle east, a sectarian cuckoo in the religious nest.
“… a little loyal Jewish Ulster in a sea of potentially hostile Arabism.”
Ronald Storrs, Military Governor of Jerusalem 1917-20, commenting in 1937 on the rationale of the 1917 Balfour Declaration.”
https://www.1of200.nz/articles/a-loyal-little-ulster-why-and-how-the-uk-and-us-shaped-israel-to-create-endless-conflict
I appreciate Yves daily updates on the war against Iran. The updates are very good.
If there is indeed a .5 rate cut on Monday, it means that the wheels are coming off.
But if there is not a rate cut it doesn’t mean that the wheels are staying on. There are simply too many problems (Japanese Debt to GDP, German deindustrialization, Italian banking weakness, weakness in the gilt market, the private equity fiasco, AI disruption, ever expanding American deficits and so on) on top of Trump’s incompetence.
Economic armageddon is coming. It is only a question of “sooner” or “later.”
Sucks to be the RBA, they have to make a decision next week just ahead of the Fed. Gold is starting to be sold to get cash, never a good sign. The Fed had to supercharge the cash management buyback on the 10th to $15 billion. Their over reliance on T bills is starting to cause problems already.
Fed is getting ready to supply everyone, Fedtrade Plus is up and running with a trial for small deals done, just waiting for a trial on micro deals so the man on the street can deal with the Fed directly.
Iran’s Goreh-Jask pipeline and Jask terminal route crude beyond Hormuz, capacity ~1mbbl/day:
https://tdhj.org/blog/post/iran-goreh-jask-oil-pipeline-geopolitics/
https://www.specialeurasia.com/2021/04/07/goreh-jask-pipeline-eurasia/
Here’s a posting showing the U.S.’s video of destruction of Kharg Island’s military facilities.
Hard to tell much about what they’re bombing here except to take out the airport and its runway. Lots of sand being pounded :)
Kharg Island is tiny and a view of it from Google Maps indicates a bunch of oil storage tanks, housing, and an airport. But OK, bombs away Donald.
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2032777791247155482
Daniel Davis analysed that footage today and showed he has some comic ability by repeatedly refering to the targets as “shrubbery”. He poured cold water on the idea that it did significant damage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyKZyu8M2Bg
More on Trump incompetence from CNN. Increasingly they can’t keep it under wraps. It’s a debacle.
Two weeks of war: Inside Trump’s risky decision to attack Iran—and the scramble to contain the fallout (CNN; 15 minute read)
and
(bold mine)
Closing the circle
deer in headlights
hope
He cares about the Market
Entirely a re-cap of the excellent weeks of coverage here, but interesting to see a reality check on the listlessness of the Trump administration war effort at CNN, much like we’re seeing at WSJ and Bloomberg.
Trump needs to be able to climbdown with what he believes is a Victory for himself. I don’t think Iran is going to give him that option. How many weeks until the cost becomes unbearable and he capitulates? Can he even?
Like Hitler overriding the Prussian general staff ….
Only Trump has no experience compared to the Austrian corporal. Nor does US enjoy anything like the Prussians.
I think we are already past the point of no return for Orangeman. The situation for him and the usa has degraded to a point where if he were to back out now, that will be the end of him politically. It might even be the end of him physically; as in, he gets impeached and removed from office next year PLUS he is physically incarcerated for his crimes. There is no shortage of people in high places in DC who would love to see that happen.
Kind of like the comedian clown in charge of Ukraine. There is no way he can back down now and make peace with the Russians. If he did, that would be the end of him because it was his decision in 2022 (of course heavily pressured by the usa & uk but still) to continue with the war that resulted in millions of Ukrainians dead and the nation getting completely “wrecked” (as Mearsheimer famously predicted back in 2015).
I can’t divine what the US political situation actually is. If this continues, and the Iranians are The Deciders, Republicans get slaughtered in the midterms. But that doesn’t necessarily mean liberal Democrats can successfully impeach Trump, or will even care to. And that just gives you Vance.
As an side, it is amusing that liberal Democrats are possessed of the notion that Trump is a Russian agent, for a decade now, and in practice he is actually demonstrably an Israeli agent. How about that? But that’s typical of any politician in Congress, of staffers and consultants, too many of whom are Israeli-firsters. I suppose one could argue this disastrous action against Iran was Trump doing Putin’s bidding by getting the US involved in a quagmire. Russiagate is impervious to all fact sets.
We can always be certain that liberal Democrats will do what they think best for them and theirs alone.
For the rest of us, the economic impacts of this are quite likely to be severe.
> Republicans get slaughtered in the midterms
I fear they may have put more strategic energy into that one. Not Trump, but the Voughts and Millers.
Step 1: this week the Save America Act gets debated in the Senate. It won’t pass due to filibuster.
Step 2: the entire right-wing machine goes into action from now until the midterms screeching about Democrats blocked it & how they are radical leftist terrorists
Step 3a: if internal polling is very not good, cancel midterms (if necessary whack Trump to create state of emergency AND/OR fake Iranian terror attack and do same)
Step 3b: if polling suggests results will be somewhat close, use legal chicanery and outright fraud to negate enough votes to retain control of both Houses
Step 4: ignore democrats as they whine, hold meetings and send out fundraising emails about “fighting for democracy”. Meanwhile the Ellison/Epstein/Fox/Musk/etc media applaud you and block dissenting voices. Arrest/threaten/kill any non-brunching opposition.
Step 5: enjoy your new post-democracratic oligarchic dictatorship.
Step 6: American 🇺🇸 Revolution 2
*cmon cmon, big money no whammies 🤞*
I just hope the new post-democratic oligarchic dictatorship is an improvement on the post-democratic oligarchic dictatorship we are currently enduring. Maybe they’ll give us cake!
One possible function for the MEU I haven’t seen mentioned is of the protected evacuation of US nationals, which is a typical role for an amphibious force. It’s clear that taking them out by fixed-wing aircraft would be very dangerous, and perhaps even impossible with apparently random airport closures. The standard procedure would be to have them gather somewhere secure that you can protect, at least from the ground, and use helicopters to shuttle them out to the ships. Whilst this could be dangerous, the actual landing sites for the helicopters could be away from built-up areas or obvious targets, and the ships could stay off Oman, for example, with evacuees brought by road. In any event, this would probably be negotiated with the Iranians through intermediaries. From Tehran’s point of view, it would be something to tolerate, or even encourage, because of the political optics of US nationals fleeing the country. Just a thought.
Having seen this sort of deployment before I believe you are correct.
This thought crossed my mind too.
That’s an astute conclusion, and ominous.
Not sure you would need to send thousands of US Marines to get Americans out of friendly Gulf countries. There are no Iranian troops on the ground threatening US citizens in Saudi Arabia or Dubai, for instance. To get Amercans out, you just need to send airplanes there.
Of course that’s easier said than done while drones and missiles are flying, but Marines won’t be able to protect you against those.
Also I’m not sure that Iranians would target civilian airliners trying to get Americans out. I know the automatic reaction of some people is to assume Iran/Russia/Nkorea are bad, but I haven’t seen any evidence that Iranians have a tendency to shoot down airliners. US Navy, yes. Iranians, not that I know of.
Well, an MEU has only one infantry battalion: the rest is artillery, logistics, communications, armoured vehicles, helicopters, landing craft etc. To secure several landing sites, and process evacuees possibly over a period of days, as well as maintaining a Quick Reaction Force, that doesn’t seem to me, as a non-expert, excessive.
And I doubt if civil air charter would work. You would need air movements teams, medics and many other specialities as well, and of course security for the airport. I doubt if the Iranians have real-time information about air movements at different airports, and the chances of an aircraft being hit by accident, or even by a stray interceptor, would be too great. And military aircraft, whatever their actual role, would announce themselves as targets.
1. ive seen things suggesting that china is providing iran with real time isr…including really goo sat imagery.
2. wouldnt the iranians want to be rid of any pesky americans who wanted to flee?, and thus allow the evac?
they aint us, remember, and think differently that we do(next quarter, etc)
being rid of americans in the region seems to be a strategic goal, for them…whether military or civilian…and i reckon that that will provide an incentive…eventually…for a come to Mohammad moment for everyone in that AO to contemplate what it would be like to finally have control over their own resources, at last…if they could only get along with one another.
strategically, thats where i see this going, as far as irans grand strategy.
usa hegemony over oil is effectively over, even if they…or their murderous proxy…drops nukes.
if so, the shia/sunni divide is effectively dissolved, and the ummah comes first, henceforward.
because the shia will have done a great service to islam, in general.
so yeah,lol, well done, all!
Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737, shot down right after take-off by IRGC in Tehran January 8 2020.
One should point out that the guilty Tor missile battery was deployed without the knowledge of the Tehran area Artesh air defenses and it was not connected to the air defense network. In the aftermath Iran did dismantle the parallel IRGC-Artesh air-defense structures and everything is now under a unified command.
‘shuttle them out to the ships’ WHAT ships?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Antonio-class_amphibious_transport_dock
The LPD (Long Plastic Dildo, San Antonio class) accommodates around 700 jarheads in triple decker cots.
I served on a predecessor class boat, LPD 9 Denver.
Not such a good idea those ships when you think about the Millennium Challenge 2002 and it’s implications. A Marine combat vet was put in charge of the Red Force and he went off script leading to six transports ships “sunk” with the “deaths” of 20,000 service personnel-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
And everybody understood that the Red Force was actually Iran.
Getting closer to another “Saigon moment”.
I originally thought the Marines are there to retake Bahrain when the Shia inhabitants topple the Sunni Sheikhs. Or possibly to retake the Saudi oilfields if Iran incites an uprising among the Shia there.
But if they are coming by boat, they will never get closer than, say, the Oman.
So, are the Marines there to (1) enter Yemen to unblock the Red Sea? or (2) enter the Oman and take the Musandam peninsula, the mountainous promontory that pinches the Straits nearly closed. If you had enough kit, you might delude yourself that from there you could control the Persian Gulf (big radar, missiles and anti-missile missiles). There’s a Six Senses spa there for R&R toi!
¨Defense secretary¨ Pete Hegseth.
Should it not be ¨War secretary Pete Hegseth¨?
I prefer “Eminent Plentipotentiary Viceroy of Greater River To the Sea Beach Resort” Pete Hegseth
Or “Pistol Pete” as Judge Nap referred to him earlier today. Made me chuckle.
I have him as the “Secretary of Shit-shows on Steroids,” or, SoS-SoS.
or, Piece o’ Hogsh*t.
Pentagram Petey.
(And the pentagram is doubtless inverted, like on a bad heavy metal album cover from the ’70s.)
There are NO bad heavy metal albums from the ’70s…
Has Congress appropriated any funds to a War Department?
Pete Exdeath
“Exdeath was originally a tree which the people of that world had used to seal countless demons and evil spirits in for centuries, until eventually the tree developed sentience from all the evil it had contained and assumed a humanoid form”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exdeath
The interview between Bessent and the English reporter was revealing not for Bessent’s stuttering and halting delivery after he came back from the situation room, but for his answer to the reporter’s question. The reporter asked if President Donald Trump was stressed and he answered that he would have no problem letting his child sign up for military service. Obviously, this is not an answer even close to the question asked but indicates plans for troops “on the ground” as well as a possible draft.
Excellent point!
It could just as equally mean Bessent knows the war will be over very soon, in which case his child is also safe to sign up for military service.
But it also shows that the very question is on his mind, or that this was one of his pre-scripted answers which he grasped for in a moment of unexpected question.
Yes, good observation, it’s the unexpected questions which trip them up and are revealing.
That struck me as well.
Trying to brave-face some deep worry about his special snowflake.
Hormuzings:
1. The untested tech behind Trump’s push to clear Iranian mines (Telegraph)
[Excerpts]:
If Tehran is already following through with maritime minefields, any attempt to clear the waterway would test new naval capabilities that have not bedded in, and in some cases are still under trial, naval sources say.
The technology has not been tested in real operations and certainly not under fire.
“Our stuff, I just don’t think is ready,” explained one [British] naval source. “It’s certainly not ready to operate in a high-threat environment.”
For the US Navy, mine-hunting-and-killing duties, known as mine countermeasures (MCM), have passed from the old Avengers to the futuristic-looking, Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships.
The US Navy says it can provide “rapid, wide-area reconnaissance and assessment of mine threats” in exactly the kind of “confined straits” and “choke points” that Iran has now paralysed.
The problem commanders face is that none of this technology has been battle-tested and some of it has only been in operation since 2025.
There have also been reports of considerable teething issues.
A US Navy briefing on early operations found that the drone boats were unreliable and needed lengthy maintenance, the news outlet Hunterbrook reported.
The de-mining job would be significantly complicated if hostilities were still under way.
That would put de-miners at risk from Iranian drones, fast-attack speedboats and coastal batteries of missiles.
Mr Prest said that before mine countermeasure vessels could operate safely, naval forces would first need to give them a “bubble of security”.
He said: “If you’re going to force the strait against Iranian will, then you’re going to have to deal with that whole threat in totality.
“I don’t think any of that is quick, cheap or easy. This is weeks, not days.”
Caitlin Talmadge, a professor of political science and security expert at MIT, said this week that, at least historically, clearing mines under fire was almost impossible.
She said: “Clearing mines is always slow and difficult; doing it during a full-blown war, while facing threats from land-based anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, and other Iranian naval assets, would be exceedingly dangerous.”
Plenty of detail on US and UK navy anti-mine stuff in the article. Telegraph is good at this type of thing.
——
2. Also I saw a video on twitter yesterday can’t locate it now. I only have an Instagram link for the same video.
It shows some Iranian journalists being taken out in a fast speedboat, and shown the stopped tankers near Hormuz up close. They are completely free to film, and boat around, getting very close to the tankers. Eventually they leave as a drone is spotted above. The tankers are clearly paralysed by the threat of attack and completely unprotected.
Pretty clearly shows how freely the Iranians move in the area, and how much control they have.
Iranian Journalist Films Strait of Hormuz Blockade: “Foreign Ships Idle – Move …
Instagram · দৈনিক জনপথ
1 day ago
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVy-rvrjU0p
I heard the other day that the mine sweeper that the US has been using the past few decades are now in the wreckers due to old age so all that is left are the Little Crappy Ships. The same ships totally incapable of taking combat damage. So much winning.
Wondering about the endgame for the 170 or so murdered Iranian schoolgirls?
It took us 8 years to pony up for the 1988 shooting down of an
Iranian commercial jet airliner…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
Past administrations used to kinda-sorta care about the image of the US. Since 9/11, not so much.
The White House, in a report titled Apparatus of Lies: Crafting Tragedy, states that U.S. intelligence sources reported the shelter was being used for military command purposes. The report goes on to accuse the Iraqi government of deliberately keeping “select civilians” as human shields in a military facility at Amiriyah.[17] USAF Major Ariane L. DeSaussur also accuses Iraq of intentionally co-mingling civilians with military personnel.[18]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amiriyah_shelter_bombing#War_crime_debate
Don’t forget that the Captain of that ship, who shot down that civilian airliner while in Iranian territorial waters, ‘was awarded the Legion of Merit decoration “for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer … from April 1987 to May 1989.” ‘ He should have been court-martialed for his total recklessness that day
Wow … wow …
For those who understand Italian, in this 8 minute video, Italian parliamentarian Riccardo Ricciardi of 5 Stelle lambastes Georgia Meloni over her warmongering hypocrisy. The 5 Star Party has generally made no secret about their opposition to the Ukraine adventure and the warmongering in the Medioriente, but this is the fieriest speech I have heard to date.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NHDQWmOF0a0&pp=iggCQAE%3D
Here’s a recap:
1) The Trump Administration is run by immoral cretins and imbeciles.
2) The Intelligence Services aren’t far behind if they couldn’t identify and explain the ramifications of the Straits of Hormuz being blocked and of Iran’s capability of blocking it. So much for threat assessment. . Who has been asleep at the switch?
3) The achilles hill of th the US is its reliance on the petrodollar. So bombing Iran’s oil facilities in order to generate a tit for tat response which might shut down oil exports from that area for a long while might not be a good idea. “The road goes on forever and the party never ends”…so, what happens if the gtaming tables l move from US treasuries and stock market investment to maybe, Asia and gold?
4) The Israelis are as bright as the Kurds if they expect the US to bail them out, now that they have gone beyond the pale. No lessons learned from last year’s 12 day war.
5) Hegseth with his doctrine of ‘military necessity’ ( e.g.(girls schools must be targeted & bombed and occupants incinerated in order to subdue the population and incite regime change) et al). will destroy the moral fiber of the US Military if his reliance on tactics over strategy doesn’t do that first.
All of that is true. But it’s important to fully acknowledge the path of the destruction of the post-WWII peace.
The world adopts Geneva conventions. The US officially abandoned those under President GWB when he made torture cool again and gave us a military that gave us Abu Ghraib, but the former shamed many of us and the latter shamed the government. Now we have Hegseth’s ‘double taps’ and official doctrine of ‘military necessity’.
France, Italy, West Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium merge their markets to prevent war. Eventually the common market expanded. Today’s EU looks nothing like that, although it remains true that a war among the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy seems beyond implausible. A fracturing of the EU seems possible as it twists under the pressures of its expansion and the adoption of the Euro, but the goal of the original common market seems achieved.
America invested in Europe with the Marshall Plan. We invested at home with the GI Bill and the highway system, the space race, and more. Now everything is corrupt and privatized and the masses are exploited debt and attention slaves.
Imperial wars of choice were forbidden in WWII’s aftermath, although as P.M. Carney’s Davos speech admitted, powerful nations broke the rules with impunity, though as discretely as possible. Hence President G.W. Bush asking Congress for permission to invade Iraq and manufacturing a socially acceptable justification in weapons of mass destruction. Then Trump threatened Greenland, a NATO ally, and snatched the leader of Venezuela to take the country’s oil and resources. Now he’s co-launched this suicidal war with Iran.
12 nations formed NATO. NATO’s relentless eastward expansion to its current 32 member nation size was a cold war battleground with Russia, and the Ukraine War is partially a result.
On top of all that, the second Trump administration has in a little over a year:
–deeply damaged the operational capacity, institutional competence, and integrity of the administrative state.
–facilitated the consolidation of corporate media and engaged in Orwellian propaganda at a scale and narrative control not seen in this country in my lifetime, currently threatening the broadcast licenses of networks that cover the Iran War in a way the President doesn’t like.
–created a masked paramilitary force to round up undocumented immigrants, that is operating lawlessly, brutally, and recklessly, ensnaring citizens and legal immigrants too.
–started creating a mass prison infrastructure to house undocumented immigrants
–destroyed efforts to protect the environment in basic clean air, clean water, clean soil, and climate change minimization and adaptation ways
–destroyed public health infrastructure
–politicized the DOJ
–facilitated and empowered Israel’s genocide in Gaza
and that’s just off the top of my head.
Trump is now posting about how the US will support its Gulf allies and “This should always have been a team effort.”
This strikes me as another sign of weakness. Wanting to work with other countries is not normal for Trump – he tells them what to do, whether they like it or not. It’s another admission that the US has lost control of that aspect of the war.
>Trump is now posting about how the US will support its Gulf allies
He’s referring to oil buyers, not oil sellers. It fits with his earlier Truth Social post which is further up this thread [“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated”]
Latest post that you are referring to in full:
“The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A LOT! The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well. This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be — It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and Everlasting Peace! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
—
Also, because we can all remember last week, let’s not forget what Trump posted then:
“The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East,” Trump wrote. “That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer – But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!”
—–
The mashed potato keeps on landing on his head!
‘Tides of March’
…et tu Brute?
I read it more as passing the buck. The US slips into a support role while the Gulf States are told they’ll need to defend themselves.
#LeadingFromBehind!
You are all correct, sorry – he’s still trying to tell them what to do (i.e., his bidding) and the support refers to that.
LOL
He’s NATO-ing them now.
“Look, you guys need to do your fair share, here …”
I don’t put much stock in the hitherto propped up GCC regimes. But at some point, some may very well decide that Iran should be their protector, not the US.
Throwing this one over the fence (via houseofsaud.com):
The Gulf Cooperation Council Went to War With Itself
Secretary Of Defense Hegseth Promises Iranians ‘No Quarter’ – A War Crime
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hegseth-no-quarter-war-crime_n_69b44e2fe4b0676e64bf4b04
Billionaire Trump Demands TSA Keep Working Without Pay
https://www.thedailybeast.com/billionaire-donald-trump-demands-tsa-keep-working-without-pay-amid-dhs-shutdown/
FCC chair threatens broadcasters over Iran war coverage
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/14/fcc-iran-war-coverage/89154891007/
Trump Adviser Warns of Possible Israel Nuclear Escalation in Iran Conflict
https://www.newsweek.com/david-sacks-trump-administration-israel-nuclear-escalation-iran-war-11678063
Iran plane leaves India with sailors, bodies as Indian ships win Hormuz reprieve
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bodies-84-iranian-sailors-be-repatriated-sri-lanka-iran-embassy-source-local-2026-03-13/
Exclusive: Trump rejects efforts to launch Iran ceasefire talks, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-rejects-efforts-launch-iran-ceasefire-talks-sources-say-2026-03-14/
Trump plots ‘disaster’ move into oil trading
Potential intervention comes as White House feels pressure to lower cost of brent crude from $100
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/14/trump-plots-disaster-move-into-oil-trading/
Trump calls on UK to send warships to keep strait of Hormuz open
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/14/trump-warships-strait-of-hormuz-iran-oil-shipping
Who wants to bet that such a move as outlined in your second link won’t end up in a Wile E. Coyote moment?
Wile E. Tacote … super genius!
Regarding the UK sending warships, Russia has been vocal about Britain’s involvement in the recent attack on Bryansk. Maybe a convenient means of indirect retribution will present itself here.
And maybe not.
Trump, the US, and this moronic war of choice are so unpopular in the UK and Starmer is so weakened that — even if deep in his establishmentarian soul he wanted to pull a Tony Blair and send warships, and it’s not clear he does — he almost certainly can’t because in May local elections are happening all over the UK and Starmer is hanging in there because his party haven’t yet figured out how and with whom to replace him.
I figure probably not, even if one or more ships are actually deployed. I also imagine that Trump’s armada will turn out to be as phantom as the mine-laying/destroying incident and Netanyahu’s sixth finger, so there may be no mission to join in the first place. Still, the idea has a certain dark elegance to it.
I mean, enough overt meddling in the oil markets and can they even be called markets anymore? If the price is repressed by financial means, it would simply result in shortages.
I think the shortages are baked in. The question is how the scarce resource will be rationed, by “ability to pay” or by some other principle.
True enough. The idea I suppose is that the price allows for the shortage issue to solve itself (“don’t have money? Go die!” sort of reasoning) but if money won’t be the impediment, then other methods will end up being de facto implemented; maybe geopolitics and diplomacy will dictate who gets it and who doesn’t. Europeans might come to regret their past choices.
> Trump rejects efforts to launch Iran ceasefire talks, sources say
Reuters doing the devil’s work here I see. One cannot reject what one has not been offered. Iran has been clear about this. Stop the attacks, and meet our conditions for cessation.
Japan industry ministry asks Australia to boost LNG output amid Iran crisis
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/japan-industry-ministry-asks-australia-boost-lng-output-amid-iran-crisis-2026-03-14/
Trump puts Japan’s Takaichi under pressure with call to send warships
https://www.ft.com/content/f21ad35f-bfd2-4c48-929e-3bfc7e5a2d14
We wouldn’t want a war to stop Japan’s on selling of Ozzie fossil fuels would we , see here
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/japan-ramps-up-regional-reselling-of-australian-gas-20250519-p5m0d4
Or if paywalled see here
https://www.jubileeaustralia.org/news/latest-news-post/japan-reselling-australian-lng
Thanks for the James Webb twt.
Jaw dropping information.
It’s interesting that Trump cannot defend America’s embassy in Iraq from militias (NY Times):
Is this what winning looks like?
Looks like a set of hits on Ben Gurion Airport:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgq1b8u_AV0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mh24XqvpkZ0
Can’t vouch for the sources, especial CBC News.
Exclusive / Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say
https://www.semafor.com/article/03/14/2026/israel-is-running-critically-low-on-interceptors-us-officials-say
Iran, not the US, currently has the strategic upper hand [Australia]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-14/united-states-iran-war-donald-trump-middle-east-strategy/106436200
Hard to say what any of that means because we don’t know why this war started or what the goals are behind it. We can kind of deduce that Israel is OK with chaos in the Middle East as long as its neighbors and the US are weakened. But why should the US continue to support that? Does Israel running out of air defense mean the US has more control over what happens? Will the West ever be able to convince Iran that they won’t be attacked again?
I feel like we will be treated to increasingly absurd scenes. News that Iranian have reduced their missile launches by 99% but obvious imagery that their strikes are 100% more effective. I think we will continue this war until the Israelis and their US servants have made a glass desert and have nothing but rocks to throw against their enemies. That if the war stops all that will happen is rapid restock so that this can happen again.
Senator Chris Murphy :
The comments below this thread are worth reading, too. Thanks, Acacia.
Something sounds off about this-
‘Angelo Giuliano 🇨🇭🇮🇹
@angeloinchina
@YairNetanyahu , son of Benjamin Netanyahu >
is a Twitter/X addict.
113’000 tweets since joining.
He tweets daily, with almost no exception.
He hasn’t tweeted for 5 days.
Something must have happened.’
https://xcancel.com/angeloinchina/status/2032688178214412465#m
Yes. What ‘happened’ was that it became too obvious that he was living it up in Miami(?) while his compatriots in Tel A. are under intense Iranian fire. A bad look you might say. But don’t worry. Not much chance of his being bombed while in Florida (I think).
Jericho missiles can reach Florida, though no doubt Yair will get a SNS heads up to skedaddle.
In addition to the Red Heifer watch, it seems we need a Yair watch.
Trump says US may strike Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub ‘just for fun’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/14/us-kharg-island-oil-export-hub
Pentagon tightens controls over Stars and Stripes after calling it “woke”
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/14/nx-s1-5748020/pentagon-tightens-controls-over-stars-and-stripes-after-calling-it-woke
Trump says Iran is ready to negotiate a ceasefire but he’s not ready to make a deal
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/iran-negotiate-ceasefire-deal-trump-kharg-hormuz-oil-rcna263474?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma
Lol. Of course he isn’t “ready”, as the conditions entail the total eviction of the US military from the region.
Assuming that my news sources are accurate, this is approximately the reverse of the actual postures of the parties. The thought occurs that if this continues, DJT is going to find himself in the uncomfortable position of portraying himself as the principal obstacle to resolution of the conflict (and for the dubious benefit of not acknowledging that actually it is the Iranians who are in the driver’s seat — is this “need to appear to be dominant”?).
DJT will get the blame for starting the war, and the blame for its continuation.
The people at the NYT who bought you Judith Miller and Weapons of Mass Destruction, amongst much else, are shocked, just shocked, at all the misinformation about the US-Iran war that’s online and want you to know you shouldn’t believe any of it —
Cascade of A.I. Fakes About War With Iran Causes Chaos Online
https://archive.ph/VgD6K
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/14/business/media/iran-disinfo-artificial-intelligence.html
‘…The content has become a potent informational weapon for Tehran as it seeks to shake the public’s tolerance for war by depicting scenes of devastation and destruction across the region. The majority of A.I. videos about the war push pro-Iranian views, often to falsely demonstrate its military superiority and sophistication, according to a study of online activity by Cyabra, a social media intelligence company….’
Cyabra? Anyway, what a crock.
What a nice looking bunch:
https://ir.cyabra.com/company-info/executive-team
Hmm. One of the Cyabra founders “served for 12 years as the head of information warfare in the IDF’s special operations department.”
What a shock.
This …. perception has been a major weapon used by the U.S. for a long time e.g. dominate via media globally and a major export for around 70+ odd years. For all the money MIC has consumed on investor driven wonder weapons, white anting any socially productive expenditure [two’fer], here we all are, makes the gaslighting around Iran in the first ME war a bad community theater play that never closes and you can never leave …
WOW at seeing CCTV cameras being taken down in Israel, more like ripped off, criminal charges for phone cameras/video, all that full surveillance thingy for social control and property rights with a side of feeding AI has come full circle.
I mean the Pythonesque[tm] level of social media/video by the whole Trump admin is something too behold i.e. they are dropping more mind bombs on voters[tm] than they are on Iran … heck of a world mate …
Unverified, but:
And, George Galloway:
Sorry can’t help myself, Acacia …
Per the first link I can help but think of them as crash test dummy’s for some hyper-sonic penetrating missile. On the potential of big names in Israel getting assassinated …. wellie …. what made them think for a moment that one day they might be on the menu after setting the table over so many long years and now ….
Nice nom de plume BTW, always blown away how they grace this land I live in now …
Thank you, skippy. Yeah, I would not want to be one of those crash test dummies.
On that note, there is some fairly spectacular video of an Iranian missile taking out Israel’s largest shelter, apparently used by the regime’s inner circle:
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/197498
I haven’t seen verification yet (and if real no doubt it will be suppressed) but looks ‘effin gnarly.
George was saying last week that the King of Bahrain had been deposed by Shia mobs and fled the country.
He was a fairly inspiring anti-war figure back in 2003 but has gone downhill since and is a slop merchant (IMO).
He also said 1000 American soldiers have been killed as of a couple of days ago. That is false. You can’t hide deaths of soldiers. There is a process for informing families. At most you can misattribute where they occurred. We MIGHT be up to 100 max with misattribution.
But 1000 total deaths is entirely possible when you throw in the CIA and contractors. We have outsourced a ton of maintenance and logistics.
Financial Times: ‘Trump advisor calls for US to “declare victory and get out” of Iran
https://archive.is/84CuQ
David Sacks, venture capitalist advisor on AI, w/ties to Musk
I thought the Yanis Varoufakis discussion with Glen Diesen on the collapse of Neoliberalism, On utoob, was especially good today.
He ended by saying it’s really up to all of us to stop these wars and fascist governments. We give them consent with our passivity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxMrNecpBjM
Hormuzings:
1. Araigchi on MSNow.
There’s some stories (eg NYPost, Z***hedge etc) that Araigchi said the Strait was open except fur US/Israel. I’m pretty sure it’s a misinterpretation and Araigchi.
Here’s the original interview (YouTube)
Here’s a machine-generated transcript
Well, as a matter of fact, this Straits of Hormuz is open.
It is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies.
Others are free to pass.
Of course, many of them prefer not because of their, you know, security concerns.
This has nothing to do with us.
And at the same time, there are many tankers and ships who are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and I can say that the Strait is not closed, but it is only closed to American, Israeli ships and tankers and not to, to others
I think the first bolded part is correct, and the second omits “allies”. Allies would obviously include NATO. It would also include Gulf States especially the UAE. I saw twitter speculation that it’s an attempt to drive a wedge between Qatar and UAE/Saudis. It seems like a logical continuation of the “get the US out of the middle-east by forcing the Gulf States hand” policies we’ve been seeing. At this point everyone in the Gulf except Iran is cooperating with the US, so it still means only Iranian ships for now.
Re:NATO et al. We’re seeing moves to work with India and China is already getting oil through. Iran can pressure oil-gas craving states to the East of Hormuz to unilaterally drop sanctions or whatever.
It’ll be interesting to see how soon and how many nations are willing to make deals with Iran. This seems like a big deal in world geopolitcs if it starts to happen. If I was an East Asian or Asian leader watching all this (and watching my protective THAADS and marines pulled away) I’d be considering my alliances.
The Europeans, ex Spain, will presumably keep vassalling so they won’t get anything via Hormuz. Whether the Red Sea route is feasible seems an open question. [Will/when the Houthis enter the war?]
2. Mines.
There have been loads of stories about potential anti-mine operations, with Trump begging the G7 (including China lol) to participate.
Telegraph has a good story on the tech involved and it looks very difficult in peacetime, much less in a hostile area.
The expensive looking Littoral Combat Ships look like very expensive but very vulnerable future targets for the IRGC.
Nobody is gonna do anti-mine stuff while Iran has firepower.
Further, I’m wondering if Iran would mine anyway except as a last resort? Presumably mines would cause a problem for Iranian tankers?
3. Speedboats/UUAVs It seems likely to me that they would rely on speedboats and UAVs (and missiles/artillery?)
To give an idea of the conditions in Hormuz, here’s a repost of Iranian journalists out there in a boat. It seems pretty clear that they have near total freedom of action and currently control the area. Sure, some will get shot up by drones, but they have 1000s. Only 1 or 2 speedboats would need to get through for tankers to stop trying. I see no way the US can prevent this directly.
So that leads to Trump posting on Truth Social:
“In the meantime, the U.S. will continue to bomb the Iranian coastline and ships – one way or another we will soon open the Strait of Hormuz.”
But it’s a long coast, and the speedboats are hidden. How will this work? I’d guess they will blow up a lot of fishing boats and coastal buildings with zero real effect.
I see no options for the Orange Man.
4. Oil Market?
Question for wiser minds: could we see a bifurcation of the oil market in which prices for delivery in Iran friendly/neutral states is much higher than delivery in eg Europe? (I haven’t thought this through)
5. Outside Hormuz
Further to a conversation up-thread, Mat Hoh has stayed his belief that the Marine Expeditionary Unit coming from Okinawa might be used to seize tankers outside Hormuz:
The MEU is very good for things like reinforcing or evacuating an embassy, reinforcing friendly forces already present someplace, supporting commando missions and raids, or boarding or seizing ships. I think this last mission may be one of its missions as the US tries to block Iranian oil shipments that are leaving the Gulf. (Twitter, part of a longer and very interesting post on the MEU and US capabilities generally).
If they US goes full pirate on tankers bound for China, what will China do?
—–
Tl;dr: Trump still helpless, Iran still in control.
This situation is very concerning. War only brings destruction and suffering for everyone involved. It’s important that efforts are made to de-escalate tensions and pursue diplomatic solutions as soon as possible so peace and stability can prevail. Explore Insiders
Hello Tony is that you?