Links 3/23/2026

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1. Ben Panga March 23, 2026 at 7:20 am

   Bessent’s Jiu Jitsu nonsense reminds me of Dick Cavett trying to prove the superiority of Akido to Mike Tyson :)

   https://m.youtube.com/shorts/nE_DSsrJ-xQ
2. The Rev Kev March 23, 2026 at 8:04 am

   “Japan Sinking?”

   Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is just your run of the mill Neoliberal and will run Japan into a helluva mess as she seeks to subordinate Japan’s interests to that of Trump America. But at this critical moment in Japan’s history, I really do not think that she is up to the job of adapting Japan to a new reality but is stuck with reliving the Cold War. In passing, I have to confess that when I saw the title of this article, that I almost took it literally-

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeJ6Cftc-E8 (3:10 mins)
   1. AG March 23, 2026 at 9:07 am

      See also this excellent interview by Doug Henwood last November with long-time Japan resident Jake Adelstein (crime reporter, his eponymous memoir was adapted into the crime series “TOKYO VICE”) about the fascistic tradition of the Japanese government and its close ties to the Yakuza:

      2nd half of the podacst (1st half is about the war in Sudan)

      Jake Adelstein, an American journalist who’s been living in Japan for almost 40 years, on that country’s reactionary new Prime Minister
      https://shout.lbo-talk.org/lbo/RadioArchive/2025/25_11_13.mp3

      Adelstein´s Substack
      https://tokyopaladin.substack.com/

      p.s.He has a new book out and will be touring through, er, France:

      “Code Bleu: See You In France in April

      Our new book about a probable serial killer of 40 veterans in the USA, CODE BLEU, is coming out in France this month. The heart of the book is this question:is the cover-up also part of the crime? “
   2. vao March 23, 2026 at 9:21 am

      I also thought about a movie, but the earlier one (3:05).

      There is also “The world sinks except Japan”, a spoof on those catastrophe movies; it is amusing (and a bit cynical).
3. Ignacio March 23, 2026 at 8:12 am

   Israel Thought It Could Spur Rebellion Inside Iran. That Hasn’t Happened. New York Times

   This reporting stinks blaming game.
4. eg March 23, 2026 at 8:31 am

   How are we supposed to make any sense of a US administration which issues a 48 hour “ultimatum” threatening strikes against power stations/energy infrastructure, followed 36 hours later by a 5 day “delay” (if that’s the correct term?) on strikes against power stations/energy infrastructure “because talks.”

   Talks with whom?

   Or is this just more straightforward market manipulation?
   1. thoughtfulperson March 23, 2026 at 9:49 am

      I’m willing to bet many insiders (incl families) connected to the DC regime are buying and selling.

      From WSJ at the moment, they report Oman is having talks with Iran about mechanisms to allow for shipping through the strait.

      Also, Wsj reports Israeli attacks on Iran happening in last hour. So IS has not agreed to Trump’s pause. Apparently strikes continue until Herzog pardons Bibi.
5. tegnost March 23, 2026 at 8:42 am

   I should be relieved but I find myself just really annoyed by the b.s. Trump is just manipulating the market for insider cronies who are making “a lodda money”
   This country is pathetic (I could probably come up with a stronger term…)
   1. earthling March 23, 2026 at 12:47 pm

      Annoyed is a kind word. Careful investing by people over many years is being rewarded by them being whipsawed around, frightened, and flat out losing funds, because Trump considers the world his personal toy. Rational plans by investors? Sorry, batshit crazy whim wins this round. And next round. And the next.
6. AG March 23, 2026 at 8:56 am

   re: Germany/US bases

   2x NACHDENKSEITEN / machine-translation

   1) Short piece by German long-time peace activist Reiner Braun who demands to shut down Ramstein Airbase without which the war against Iran would not be possible.

   Military strike against Iran: Without this US base in Germany, the attack would not have been possible
   https://archive.is/3aOJe

   “(…)Due to the curvature of the Earth, a direct satellite link between the American continent and the Middle East is technically almost impossible. Ramstein is the only US satellite relay station within the required range. Without this intermediary step, control commands would arrive too slowly, and precise flight maneuvers and target acquisition would be severely limited.(…)”

   2) This corresponds with another short NDS piece about the regional elections in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate yesterday (which was a major victory for the CDU and AfD, and a depressing defeat for SPD).

   The majority of US bases is located in that very state (Landstuhl hospital e.g.) and you could say US forces have been occupying it for 80 years. However none of this was ever addresses during the election campaign by any party.

   Written by founder of NACHDENKSEITEN, Albrecht Müller (among others chief of planning in the Chancellory under the administrations of Brandt and Schmidt and former MP). Müller who is 87 is still among the best and smartest of the NDS staff. Once he is gone they won´t be able to replace him. The succeeding generation of writers is by far not as independent and shrewd.

   Elections on the US aircraft carrier in Germany. Not an issue.
   https://archive.is/poQXo

   “(…)If a military conflict were to break out, Ramstein and Kaiserslautern, Sembach and Baumholder, Pirmasens, Germersheim, and Spangdahlem would be targets for Russian missiles. This high risk, this danger, should be a central issue in a state election campaign in Rhineland-Palatinate.(…)”.

   One might add Iran, if Iran had the reach.
   1. caucus99percenter March 23, 2026 at 9:46 am

      > you could say US forces have been occupying [the Ramstein air base in Landstuhl] for 80 years. However none of this was ever addresse[d] during the election campaign by any party.

      The BSW (Bund Sahra Wagenknecht) party did hold an anti-war, anti-Ramstein demonstration in Berlin on Sunday, but it was not linked to the Rhineland-Palatinate state election campaign.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdP9fqRFXig
      1. AG March 23, 2026 at 11:01 am

         thanks!
         But as you point out – BSW is basically kicked out of the system.
         So whatever they do, how mindful it may be, it´s ignored.

         For German-speakers here a conversation between Ulrike Guérot and Sarah Wagenknecht. It´s good, albeit too naive imo.
         But that´s what we got. They are almost avantgarde by now.
         70 min.
         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSHxttqJFqY
7. The Rev Kev March 23, 2026 at 9:49 am

   “Enemy fighter jet operations over central Iran reduce sharply after F-35 strike: Source”

   The loss of one F-35 is bad enough for the MIC but given time could be explained away as being caused by a “golden BB shot.” But if a coupla more get shot down by the Iranians, can you imagine the loss of sales then? It could be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.
   1. ISL March 23, 2026 at 11:56 am

      In Ukraine, Russia gained massive expertise in countering US second-tier weapons. In Iran, I will misuse the word, allies”, expertise in countering US first-tier weapons is being gained. US next-generation weapons (hypersonics, FPV drones, 6th-generation fighter planes, etc.) refuse to get beyond the power point level.

      This is not good for sales. there are many reports of F35 order cancellations (especially the gulf, now!) even before the war.
8. PVDSteve March 23, 2026 at 9:58 am

   “America is Achieving Full-Spectrum Energy Dominance — And Nobody is Paying Attention”

   Really glad to see someone pointing out the massive flaw in the supposed plan to control the world via dominance of oil supplies: that, at least for power generation, no one outside oil producing nations should even be building largely obsolete thermal power plants anyway! Outside markets with political tariffs like the US, renewables are not only better for pollution and energy sovereignty, they’re cheaper than dirty, dangerous oil or gas plants. Why would any self-respecting nationalist leader outside the US vassal states lock their country into expensive foreign dominance over their energy supply when China will happily sell them solar farms with battery storage and help them set up solar panel production in their own country, providing nearly free energy that can’t be blockaded?

   There will be an epochal shift in global energy supplies as a result of this war, but not in the direction the US thinks.
   1. ACPAL March 23, 2026 at 1:34 pm

      “providing nearly free energy that can’t be blockaded?”

      Last winter here in SW Idaho we had almost three weeks of heavy fog bringing my solar panels down to about 1% of their rated power. My nearly free energy was blockaded (by nature) well past my battery bank capacity. I could never get by on solar (or wind) alone therefore requiring me to maintain a generator, no matter how little I use it.

      I’ve never been to Europe but I’d guess that they have a lot of cloudy days and no matter how big their battery banks are they are going to need generators that can take the full load when needed.
   2. Late Introvert March 23, 2026 at 3:55 pm

      That is I think Trump’s biggest miscalculation, him thinking that US controlling oil supplies won’t result in massive adoption of wind/solar in coming years. Hoping maybe, but that would be one good result here.
      1. CanCyn March 23, 2026 at 5:27 pm

         Nice thought. Except, as Yves pointed out to someone the other day, it takes oil/gas to make solar panel and wind turbines, manufacturing, shipping goods to and from factories, etc. Me thinks we’ve left it too late for there to be a good energy outcome resulting from this war.
         1. MicaT March 23, 2026 at 6:55 pm

            The general rule of thumb for wind in a good location is it takes about 6 months to make as much energy as it took to mine, make, ship and install a wind turbine. With lifespan of 30-35 years.
            Solar panels are a bit more all over the place due to lots more variables. But usually about 1-2 yrs with lifespans of 25-35 years.
            1. CanCyn March 23, 2026 at 7:14 pm

               Not sure of your point here? Whether it takes months or years to make solar panels and wind turbines, we should have made this shift long ago. With the oil shortage and supply chain disruptions coming our way, I don’t believe the pivot is possible. Are you saying it is?
            2. ArvidMartensen March 24, 2026 at 5:27 pm

               Solar and wind are short term solutions. In 30 years today’s solar panels and batteries will be obsolete and land fill. Afaik, recycling is hugely energy intensive.
               And in 35 years this applies to wind turbines. And of course nuclear waste lasts for thousands of years, with no safe storage places.

               Issues are the need for fossil fuels to make them, waste generated, need for fossil fuels to recycle some components, short time frame. 30 years is nothing in the timeline of humanity. https://scienceinsights.org/what-happens-to-old-solar-panels-disposal-recycling/

               Whereas if we had played our cards right oil and gas would have powered us for centuries if not millenia. The same cannot be said for solar and wind and nuclear.
   3. Mikel March 23, 2026 at 5:57 pm

      If I may be allowed a quick rant…
      That’s one of the things that is starting to bother me about the opposition to the status quo.
      Always ready to jump to fortune telling about the future instead of dealing fully with the implications of the present day challenges.
9. mzza March 23, 2026 at 10:00 am

   Watched the Medhurst video when he released it and was filled with new dread at the US manipulating this disaster to it’s profit and power advantage (at least short-term, which Medhurst didn’t address) so very thankful to NC — as I so often am — for surfacing BeatBeat’s “America is Achieving Full-Spectrum Energy Dominance — And Nobody Is Paying Attention,” which applies a thoughtful, point-by-point analysis to Medhurst’s claims. My sense when watching, that Medhurst to piecing together something worth attention (rather than 100% adoption) is outlined here.

   Will add another “crack” Medhurst doesn’t address is the potential for Russia or China to fight back either economically or kinetically — and perhaps the two Russian tankers approaching Cuba will tell us more about this possibility (in his defense Medhurst does reference that the US doesn’t automatically ‘win’ just because they’ve Machiavellian’d a geopolitical plan).

   Or for a third fissure, the possibility of populations revolting against their elites as they face the increasing stranglehold on their daily lives.

   The latter probably unlikely of course, but there’s something to be said when a country like Iran absorbs an increasingly deadly attack but remains steadfast in it’s demand that Palestine be restored before there can be an end to this conflict. Bravo to that.
10. tegnost March 23, 2026 at 10:06 am

    As of this writing dow up 2% and wti down 10%
    Oil Price headlines seem bullish to me,it’s like Al Marilagi (h/t LAB) declared a ceasefire and there’s no mention of any of the other parties involved but mentions china is taking a beating.
11. ambrit March 23, 2026 at 10:17 am

    I had a vision, without pharmaceutical intervention, of our Fearless Leader as Blackadder’s bumbling assistant Baldrick with all of his “cunning plans.”
    Netanyahoo as Blackadder would be somewhat of a stretch though. Perhaps he would be more like Queenie.
    Hire Tony Robinson, put him in an orange wig, and voila, the “Most Excellent Omnipotent Leader of the Free World!”
    Stay safe, with turnips on the side.
12. ProNewerDeal March 23, 2026 at 10:18 am

    Yves/other economic gurus, what is your current take on the accuracy of the official CPI-U US inflation index. The most recent 2026-02 CPI-U report is 2.41% annual inflation.

    Is the CPI-U accurate? If not, is there alternate non-Fed Gov monthly internet-posted reports that in your view are close to accurate?
    1. Adam March 23, 2026 at 6:38 pm

       Wolf Richter has been talking about how the CPI has been underpricing “Owner’s Equivalence of Rent” since the shutdown last year, so the metric is definitely low (in addition to the all the other issues that it has which tend to make it lower than reality). I can’t speak to what is better, but the Fed puts more emphasis on the PCE inflation metric.
13. DJG, Reality Czar March 23, 2026 at 10:26 am

    Italy: The voting for the referendum just ended, at 15 00. So we will await the results. Italians count ballots quickly. You can expect the first reliable reports of the results in four or so hours.

    Meanwhile, because religion is in the Links as well as in Yves Smith’s disturbing post today on the state of the war, Peter Thiel comes to Roma. It’s for your entertainment!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hltv1zCheF4

    Who is the dopey American with the big cowboy hat, moon face, and string tie? Or is it cosplay?

    The Peter Thiel leak / voiceover is all nonsense all the time: You know, the typical U.S. churchy sermon.

    Unluckily for ole Peter, undesirable alien and America’s techno-sweetheart, it came about that his sweaty ambition and the Holy Ghost told him to go to Roma. Divine intervention or too many mojitos?

    Sure, he’ll find some fascists — and the journalist points out a few sketchy Italian attendees. But the reception of Thiel here in Italy hasn’t been all that warm. Yet he’s deluded enough likely to think otherwise.

    And this Italian TV channel is hardly left-wing.

    Ahhh, well, U S of A, the whited sepulchre.

    It didn’t have to be this way.
    1. DJG, Reality Czar March 23, 2026 at 10:55 am

       Italy: alle 15 50

       First results: Big turnout, almost 60 percent.

       First predictions: the No vote has it, at 55 percent.

       Government crisis! Couldn’t have happened to a nice group of mascalzoni!

       I have some appointments. I will check back in five or six hours.

       I’m sure that Conor Gallagher will have more to say about this political turn of events.
       1. ChrisRUEcon March 23, 2026 at 11:37 am

          DJG, Reality Czar:

          Thx for the update! 60% turnout! Your observations about the polling center were correct!
    2. Bugs March 23, 2026 at 2:06 pm

       So the NO gets it. I am not as keyed into Italian politics as you, caro amico, but I didn’t see this as mortal combat for La Meloni et al, but rather a feeler for going further on rewriting elements of the constitution.
       1. DJG, Reality Czar March 23, 2026 at 4:10 pm

          Bugs: Like almost all reforms these days, the reform wasn’t a reform. The law (now abrogated) would have distorted the balance of powers as laid out in the Italian Constitution. The law also diddled with six or seven articles of the constitution — more than enough slop to indicate that mischief is afoot.

          The governing coalition already has to contend with the mess it made in Ukraine, Israel, and, now, Iran. Then there is “autonomia differenziata” — a Rube Goldberg form of federalism. That didn’t fly and didn’t gain them many fans. There have also been some feelers as to an elected premier (president of the council of ministers a k a current occupant Meloni). That won’t fly at all now.

          I’m wondering if the attempt to enact the IHCR definition of antisemitism will also be a casualty. There is much skepticism of that bill and its legislative sponsors.

          So: A punch in the nose. And I am glad to have been among the early signers of the petition to the ministry to conduct this referendum.

          Some data:
          https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/referendum-2026/risultati/

          Sure, the government lost the metropolitan city of Torino — la piccola Petrograd. But when the government loses Sicily, Sardinia, and Lazio by twenty points, there’s a problem brewing.

          The government won Lombardy narrowly, but then the Lombards are all haunted by the Ghost of Bungabunga and Berlù. The only blow-out Sì region was Veneto, which is the Texas of Italy.

          As mentioned in an earlier comment about this government, though, teetering in Italy can go on for years. Look at the Campanile of Pisa.
14. Mikel March 23, 2026 at 11:14 am

    US says Iran war may last longer than planned: Report – Anadolu Agency

    If one takes another look at the oft cited and strange “Path to Persia” policy paper, parts of it read like a main goal and problem to overcome is how to get the USA acclimated or drawn into to a five to ten year commitment to staying in conflict with Iran.
15. Jason Boxman March 23, 2026 at 11:54 am

    In another episode of Democrats are trash

    When Voters Worry About ‘Affordability,’ Many Point to Health Care (NY Times via archive.ph)

    Democrats have had limited political success running on the Affordable Care Act, even with its relative popularity. Now President Trump’s health care cuts may have given the issue new resonance.
16. Wukchumni March 23, 2026 at 12:05 pm

    The winter of 2014-15 was quite something, in that I never got a chance to use my season pass at China Peak ski resort, as there was scant snow on the ground and it was always too warm to make snow.

    This year will rival 2015 in accumulation for April 1st-the last measurement of snowpack in the Sierra, and yet we got plenty of snow in a couple of big storm systems, but it melted out so quick due to record average temps these days.

    This new climate normal is going to take some figuring out
17. lyman alpha blob March 23, 2026 at 1:23 pm

    Apparently warmongers inscribing explosives is not a modern invention, and belligerents have been putting little missives on their missiles for millennia – 2,100 years ago, someone hurled a rock inscribed with ‘Learn your lesson!’
18. hamstak March 23, 2026 at 1:45 pm

    [TASS] US orders 22 B-2 strategic bombers, Trump says

    “We just ordered 22 more of them, modern version, by the way, super modern version,” the American leader told reporters at West Palm Beach airport…
    – – –
    One wonders what future mission these would be oriented towards, besides the mission of MIC shareholder profits. Of course, they could be replacements for members the aging fleet. I’m curious what the delivery schedule is like.
    1. lyman alpha blob March 23, 2026 at 2:37 pm

       Hopefully delivery time will be around half past never. I don’t have the supply chain for B-2s in front of me, but I’m guessing some components require sourcing from China.
    2. Glen March 24, 2026 at 1:48 am

       Probably means these:

       Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider
       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_B-21_Raider
19. johnnyme March 23, 2026 at 1:46 pm

    Interior and TotalEnergies Agree to End Offshore Wind Projects, Lowering Costs for American Families

    WASHINGTON — Today, the Department of the Interior announced a landmark agreement with TotalEnergies for the company to redirect capital from expensive, unreliable offshore wind leases toward affordable, reliable natural gas projects that will provide secure energy for hardworking Americans.

    TotalEnergies has committed to invest approximately $1 billion—the value of its renounced offshore wind leases—in oil and natural gas and LNG production in the United States. Following their new investment, the United States will reimburse the company dollar-for-dollar, up to the amount they paid in lease purchases for offshore wind. Under this innovative agreement driven by President Donald J. Trump’s Energy Dominance Agenda, the American people will no longer pay for ideological subsidies that benefited only the unreliable and costly offshore wind industry.

    Additionally, in light of the national security concerns, TotalEnergies has pledged not to develop any new offshore wind projects in the United States.
20. ChrisFromGA March 23, 2026 at 2:06 pm

    Re: TSA lines

    I am thinking that if this goes on much longer, the “business community” will drop a dime and make a call to the DC stooges. Something tells me that a lot of business trips are getting canceled, and summer plans to jet off to Kathmandu are being replaced with a drive to go camping somewhere much closer to home.

    Airline execs have the power to move their captured stooges. And they don’t like having to hire bankruptcy law firms.
21. Ann March 23, 2026 at 4:58 pm

    US to pay almost $1bn to French energy company to kill wind project plan

    Trump administration announces deal with TotalEnergies to redirect investment in wind to oil and gas instead

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/23/trump-administration-wind-project-plan
    1. micaT March 23, 2026 at 6:47 pm

       Not exactly.
       It will pay Total energies back the $928 million it paid for the leases during the biden Administration.
22. AG March 23, 2026 at 6:07 pm

    2x HARPERS
    
    1) State of Nature – What are conservative environmentalists fighting for?
    by Gaby Del Valle
    https://harpers.org/archive/2026/04/state-of-nature-gaby-del-valle-acc-conservative-environmentalism/

    2) Thirty-Eight Days of ICE – The story of an occupation
    by Daniel Brook
    https://archive.is/H09pu
23. Ann March 23, 2026 at 7:29 pm

    A Japanese Team Plans to Build a 6,800-Mile Solar Ring Belt on the Moon to Power the Earth 24/7

    https://dailygalaxy.com/2026/03/japan-plan-6800-mile-ring-around-moon/
24. Ann March 23, 2026 at 7:50 pm

    Bannon: Trump’s ICE airport deployment is ‘test run’ for ICE at polls

    https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/bannon-trump-ice-airport-deployment-test-run-2026-midterm-elections/
25. AG March 23, 2026 at 8:59 pm

    John Mearsheimer conversation with Gita Wirjawan, the former Indonesian Minister of Trade.

    Thinking about the Long Haul

    “On 5 March 2026, I did a long interview — two hours — with Gita Wirjawan, the former Indonesian Minister of Trade. It was my third long interview with Gita, and as was the case with the first two interviews, it was a pleasure going back and forth with him. We had a wide-ranging discussion about the various ongoing conflicts in the world and where we are headed in the years ahead. As one would expect, I painted a dark picture.”

    120 min.
    https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/thinking-about-the-long-haul
26. ChrisRUEcon March 23, 2026 at 9:31 pm

    #Syraqistan

    Via X: Retired Marine Brian McGinnis on Piers Morgan Uncensored

    Signs off by saying (of i5ra31): ” … they are the true terrorists”
27. Jason Boxman March 23, 2026 at 10:24 pm

    So, this happen. Also.

    Reports of explosion, smoke at Valero refinery in Port Arthur; shelter-in-place issued for west side residents

    An explosion and large plume of smoke at the Valero refinery in Port Arthur prompted officials to order west-side residents to shelter in place, while nearby Nederland reported no impact from the incident Monday.

    Antonio Mitchell with the Port Arthur Fire Department confirmed an incident at the Valero facility, though details remained limited.

    “The type of incident is unknown at this time,” Mitchell said not long after the explosion as his crews headed to the scene.

    Jefferson County Sheriff Zena Stephens said the incident may have involved a heater unit. No injuries have been reported, and no evacuations have been ordered. Officials are monitoring air quality in the area.

    Oops?

    I’m sure later we’ll find out that safety regulations weren’t being respected.
    1. ChrisRUEcon March 23, 2026 at 10:40 pm

       Will an intact Iranian passport and a copy of Mein Kampf be found in the burning rubble???!!!

       /sarc
28. MarkT March 24, 2026 at 5:22 pm

    Are You Situationally Aware

    Harold Brookes’ influence extended as far as South Africa. When I started my career in meteorology there, people spoke of his recent visit and his emphasis on situational awareness in the context of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms (and severe thunderstorms) require certain ingredients to form. Being aware of the state of play of the ingredients on the day gives a warning meteorologist a head start when things kick off. No doubt the same applies to economics. However, the mechanisms of thunderstorms are well understood, which can’t be said of economics. Which is why I follow naked capitalism. Situational awareness.

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