POTUS Trump and the Iranians are locked in a high tension stand off and the pressure on everyone is building like divers trapped in a bell that’s springing leaks as it descends into the abyss.
And the hallucinations and delusions are building as bubbles form in the bloodstream and the brain.
Let’s start with the Lord of Misrule himself.
Who’s Trump Trying to Fool With His Truths?
The evil dotard has been verbose and very creative on his proprietary anti-social media platform.
I’d like to tune him out, but as rumors started by retired CIA analysts keep reminding us, Trump’s got the keys to the kingdom, his hand’s on the seventh seal, that is, he’s got the nuclear codes.
Besides, this is Mad King Trump’s climactic act, if not his last (although it may be that too), let’s hear what sound and fury, what hideous deceitful whispers pass his lips.
Here’s a gem of a post:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 21, 2026
This was preceded by a longer post that I’ll paste in as text:
The Democrats are doing everything possible to hurt the very strong position we are in with respect to Iran. Despite World War I lasting 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days, World War II lasting 6 years and 1 day, the Korean War lasting 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days, the Vietnam War lasting 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and Iraq lasting 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days, they like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran, and actually, from the Military standpoint, it was far faster than that, but I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been. I read the Fake News saying that I am under “pressure” to make a Deal. THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly! Time is not my adversary, the only thing that matters is that we finally, after 47 years, straighten out the MESS that other Presidents let happen because they didn’t have the Courage or Foresight to do what had to be done with respect to Iran. We’re in it, and it will be done RIGHT, and we won’t let the Weak and Pathetic Democrats, TRAITORS ALL, who for years have been talking about the Dangers of Iran, and that something has to be done, but now, since I’m the one doing it, belittle the accomplishments of our Military and the Trump Administration. This is being perfectly executed, on the scale of Venezuela, just a bigger, more complex operation. The result will be the same. In my First Term, I built the Greatest Military our Country has ever seen, including adding Space Force. In my Second Term, I am properly and judiciously using our Military to solve problems left to us by others of far less understanding or competence. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump also did some interviews, here’s some of what he told PBS News,
PBS News: What happens if the ceasefire expires tomorrow evening?
Trump: Then lots of bombs start going off.
PBS: Is Iran still participating in the talks that will be happening in Islamabad? Will they still be there?
Trump: I don’t know. I mean, they’re supposed to be there. We agreed to be there, although they say we didn’t. But no, it was set up. And we’ll see whether or not it’s there. If they’re not there, that’s fine too.
PBS: What do you want from the negotiating team in Islamabad?
Trump: No nuclear weapons. Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Very simple.
US President Donald Trump said he’s not likely to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran, which expires on “Wednesday evening Washington time”.
Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would stay blockaded for now, saying “the Iranians desperately want it opened” but he’s “not opening it until a deal is signed”.
Now that we know what we don’t know, which is what % of Trump’s blather is deliberate lies and what is delusional fantasy, let’s check in on those attempting to weave a consensus reality conventional narrative about the negotiations.
Talks? Who’s Talking
Looks like it won’t be Iran, not in Islamabad, Pakistan anyhow, per Al Jazeera:
Iran has signalled that it has no plans to send negotiators to Islamabad for a new round of talks with the United States, threatening Pakistan’s plans for multiday negotiations between the warring nations less than 48 hours before a fragile ceasefire is set to expire.
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday Washington had “violated the ceasefire from the beginning of its implementation”, citing the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, and the overnight capture of an Iranian container ship by the US military as breaches of the truce as well as international law.
He warned that if the US and Israel launched aggression again, Iranian forces “will respond accordingly”, while reaffirming that Tehran’s 10-point proposal, submitted before the first round of Islamabad talks, remained its basis for any negotiation.
“The US is not learning its lessons from experience,” Baghaei said, “and this will never lead to good results.”
Are Trump’s Lies Creating Divisions in Iran?
Patricia Marins has an interesting essay at Global 21 speculating to that effect:
It is necessary to examine the Iranian negotiators’ position very carefully, as well as how the markets and the lives of billions of people react to every statement or silence from them. First and foremost, it is important to remember: in this scenario, there is no concrete proof of anything. Everything is assessed through behaviors, actions, and outcomes that raise suspicions that an operation of this kind is underway, and today it certainly is.
Notice how often it leaks to the international media and social media channels that Iran “is very close to an agreement.” However, when you look at the leaked terms, they are selective and do not match the main negotiating agenda. This information reaches the Iranian command, which immediately asks the negotiators if it is true. Imagine the level of nervousness during a period of war. This tactic is classic and widely used.
Another clear strategy worth observing is the talks in Islamabad. Trump’s delegation, led by JD Vance, adopts a respectful and even cordial tone with the Araghchi and Ghalibaf, while maintaining a harsh rhetoric of “annihilation” against the IRGC. This creates the public perception that there are two paths: Prosperity alongside the politicians and destruction alongside the military. Publicly, this forces Iranian politicians to try to demonstrate control over the military, control that, in practice, they do not actually have, generating internal friction.
The US imposes extremely heavy sanctions on companies linked to the IRGC, but at the same time signals that it could ease restrictions on economic sectors defended by the Parliament. Once again, the goal is to create division.
Trump often publicly praises the intelligence of certain Iranian negotiators. For a negotiator in wartime, receiving a public compliment from Trump is almost a shot in the foot. And so the psychological war advances, step by step.
To be clear, Marins has no sources inside Iran, but she is laying out a plausible scenario, one that almost seems inevitable, but don’t mistake it for intel about what actually *IS* happening in Iran.
I’m just sharing it to help readers put themselves in the headspace of the Iranian side as they try to negotiate with a con man turned demented loon.
So the Mad King may have already cracked, leaving gray matter leaking out like stuffing from his ears, but the Iranians might be disoriented from paying attention to what’s coming out of his mouth.
But What’s Broken Trump?
If he’s so dangerous to anyone paying mind to his prattle, what’s on his mind?
Well there are his ever-worsening polling numbers from NBC and Survey Monkey (that is if Susie Wiles lets him see these numbers), cited by The Hill:
The decline in Americans who strongly approve of Trump’s job in office accounts for most of his falling approval rating — 20 percent strongly approve of the president, down from 26 percent one year ago. Meanwhile, the share who “somewhat approve” of the president dipped from 19 percent in last April to 17 percent today.
Similarly, those who say they “strongly disapprove” have been steadily on the rise — now accounting for 50 percent of all respondents, up from 42 percent last April. Meanwhile, 13 percent “somewhat disapprove” of Trump in the latest poll — the same finding from the April 2025 survey.
If they’re not letting Trump in the Situation Room at key moments, it’s unlikely that he’s getting detailed reports about ship movements out of Iran.
Blockades and Fleets and What Not
It seems very unlikely that anyone from the US Navy is giving him numbers like what Lloyd’s List is reporting about his vaunted blockade:
At least 26 Iranian shadow fleet vessels bypass US blockade
More than 10 vessels have transited past the US blockade line since the terms were expanded last week
Eleven tankers laden with Iranian cargo have left the Gulf of Oman or Middle East Gulf since April 13
A Greek-owned bulker left an Iranian port on April 15 and passed the blockade line on April 19
That’s the free preview, I don’t have access to the full report, nor can I vouch for the accuracy of the report, but Lloyd’s was a trusted source before a recent private equity acquisition. Perhaps it can still be vouchsafed.
Also the US Navy simply does not have sufficient assets deployed to enforce a tight blockade of the Gulf of Oman so this would gibe with logical expectations.
⚓️ US Navy Battle Fleet Update
Assuming the Rybar map attached below is accurate, this is the current US Navy order of battle arrayed against Iran:
Carrier Strike Group 3 (USS Fraidy Abe CVN-72) remains in the northern Arabian Sea, along with an Amphibious Ready Group (USS… pic.twitter.com/jo10XnLQGW
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) April 20, 2026
Rest assured Trump isn’t being informed of the economic fundamentals.
Oil’s Breaking Point?
HFI Research has a new report called “The Oil Market Breaking Point Is Here” that got exposed to over 900,000 people on X via Qasem Al-Ali.
Al-Ali summarized the report elegantly:
Even if a ceasefire is signed TODAY:
— Floating tankers need 30–40 days to offload
— VLCCs rerouted to the US need 3+ months to return
— Onshore ME storage needs to drain ~200M bbls first
The supply gap doesn’t care about peace dealsCumulative storage lost from Hormuz closure:
End of April → 1.2 billion bbls
End of May → 1.59 billion bbls
End of June → 1.98 billion bbls
This is 4x larger than any supply outage in history.
There is no playbook for this.The cycle playing out right now:
↑ Crude prices
→ Compressed refining margins
→ Lower refined product output
→ Product storage draws
→ Higher margins again
→ Higher throughput
→ ↑ Crude prices again
Rinse. Repeat. Until something breaks.By end of July, US commercial crude storage could fall below 400M bbls — near operational minimum.
At that point, the Trump administration faces a binary choice:
Ban crude exports. Or watch US refineries shut down.
Neither option is good for markets.The only thing that “balances” this market now is demand destruction on the scale of COVID lockdowns.
Not lower prices. Not diplomacy.
Government mandates forcing people to use less fuel.
That’s the math. $95/bbl is not the answer.The last marginal barrel — the one that keeps a refinery running vs. shutting down —
What does it trade for?
Nobody knows. And that’s the most terrifying thing about this crisis.
What’s your number?
Let’s round this post out with a round up of news from the Gulf States and the Levant.
How Can Iraq Miss the U.S. If It Doesn’t Release The Funds?
🇺🇸🇮🇶 BREAKING | The United States has reportedly suspended all funding and security coordination with the Iraqi government and has halted dollar shipments to Iraq's central banking system, according to Saudi channel Al-Hadath.
Washington says the suspension will remain in effect…
— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) April 20, 2026
Full tweet:
The United States has reportedly suspended all funding and security coordination with the Iraqi government and has halted dollar shipments to Iraq’s central banking system, according to Saudi channel Al-Hadath.
Washington says the suspension will remain in effect until a new Iraqi government is formed and Baghdad provides information on pro-Iranian militia members who have attacked U.S. targets in Iraq.
Iraq’s economy is 90% dependent on oil revenue paid in dollars into a Federal Reserve account in New York. Every month, Baghdad flies in $1-2 billion in cash from that account to pay salaries and conduct government functions. Cutting dollar access means the Iraqi government cannot operate—salaries go unpaid, the dinar collapses, and the state grinds to a halt.
Iraq is currently forming a new government after November 2025 elections. The U.S. threatened in January to suspend engagement if any of 58 pro-Iranian MPs were included in the cabinet. Now Trump is enforcing that ultimatum while Iraq remains paralyzed between Washington and Tehran.
Washington invaded Iraq, destroyed its economy, controls its oil revenue through the New York Fed, and is now starving the government until it picks a cabinet the White House approves.
Force Majeure Declares Kuwait
Kuwait has just declared force majeure on oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz
No more oil or refined products will come from Kuwait, at least for the foreseeable future.
🧵 pic.twitter.com/fs76LLOiYG— Francesco Sassi (@Frank_Stones) April 20, 2026
More on that UAE Request for Dollar Swaps?
Most people are missing the main point here. It’s not dedollarization as you’re going to hear all that people talking, ‘oh, they they threaten to turn over to the Chinese yuan if the if the US Treasury Department doesn’t accede to their demands.’
And of course, that’s nonsense, too. There are bigger implications here than just what most people are seem to be focusing on.
Dubai in particular in broader terms has become a major dollar hub for certainly emerging markets especially across Asia and the interruption of oil flow and let’s not forget tourism into those areas has disrupted dollars coming in which has the potential to disrupt dollars going out because when you become a major dollar hub what that means is it’s both directions.
You are a redistribution center for global dollar finance and therefore the implications are not strictly limited to the United Arab Emirates, Dubai and even just the Middle East in general especially when we consider how much the Asian part of the global economy is already suffering the downside of the interruption of oil flow and the macroeconomic consequences that are going to go with it. But there’s a lot more here than just those.
That’s I think what we what we’re really getting into are the second and third order implications that we’ve been talking about and worried about for quite some time.
So as we get to the second third order implications, it’s no longer strictly about oil prices or even fertilizer, the movement of food. Now we’re into financial monetary flows, potential dollar shortage along the lines of maybe 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
Israeli Soldier Smashes Jesus
It’s interesting which atrocities and war crimes get MSM attention in the West. Yesterday, one Israeli solider found out where the New York Times draws the line.
Israeli Soldier in Lebanon Sledgehammered a Statue of Jesus: The military is investigating the soldier. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed regret for any hurt caused to “believers in Lebanon and around the world.”
They’ve blown up how many ancient Christian churches, destroyed countless relics, blocked Christian services in Bethleham, etc. etc. etc. and this is the one that gets an apology out of Bibi? Who am I to question the ways of the dominant narrative?
Meanwhile, Bibi is grasping and seizing and taking care of business:
Mapped the IDF's newly declared "Forward Defense Zone" in south Lebanon. Its maritime boundary fully absorbs Lebanon's Qana gas field, whose exploration rights were explicitly guaranteed under the 2022 US-brokered maritime border agreement.
More maps in this thread 🧵 https://t.co/goaRBHQkqX pic.twitter.com/pGsm18nt5e
— Ahmad Baydoun (@weatherwar) April 19, 2026
I’ll have to stop with that head scratcher and we’ll see what the new day brings to the Mad King and all the rest of us.
Stay safe, y’all.
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> % of Trump’s blather is deliberate lies and what is delusional fantasy
I think there is a third category, “projection (perhaps unconscious, but possibly intentional) onto the Iranians of his own hopes and fears, and appropriation of their strong-looking stances”.
Via Ian Welsh https://www.ianwelsh.net/did-gen-caine-defy-a-presidential-order-saturday-night-and-deny-him-the-nuclear-codes/
According to an X–may be the same source Larry Johnson referred to in his latest blog post.
Whiffs of Woodstein’s The Final Days are detected. As Trump wanders around the manse looking at his 9 self portraits–fueled by Diet Coke rather than martinis– will the ghost of Nixon be accompanying him?
Not that Woodward is necessarily to be trusted or this report either.
Scrolling through Kerry Burgess’ X it looks like a agit/comedy/sh:+post account to me. It gets to Larry Johnson who talks about it and that clip gets recycled on X.
Idk.
A commenter on the Ian Welsh post, “Huntly,” said this:
“Just for the fact that it is too scary to contemplate, this feels more like a CIA psyop to scare the Iranians into negotiating.”
I tend to agree. If not the CIA then perhaps Trump’s own version of the “mad man” theory in action. Though having said this, I admit that these days I know *nothing* for sure, and I do not rule out anything completely, no matter how crazy it sounds. This irritates the hell out of me because I *am* certain that this is the intent of administration propaganda.
it also strikes me as a leak with propaganda value aimed at americans. It seems to me it’s meant to convey a message something along the lines of “see how the military (/deep state) is mature and a good balancing force against these crazy politicians?”
It gets more Armageddon-y. Now the ranty, anti-Pope will be participating in a Bible reading marathon with the other elected nutters who don’t believe in the separation of church and state – https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-other-top-republicans-read-105415460.html
It’s hard to tell who’s winning in Lebanon. Israel has taken a lot of territory. It might be that Hezbollah is baiting them in, or they’re cracking.
Hats off to the IDF, what an amazing accomplishment. They’ve advanced 10 kms into a neighbouring country against a paramilitary force while only losing 100 tanks and a few hundred dead and injured troops. Seriously though, this has been the game plan in every Hezbollah/IDF conflict. Get them on home turf and go to town on ’em. What has magically changed for the IDF this time? What new Wunderwaffen/tactics have the chosen ones discovered? Ethnic cleansing and genocide? That will get them so far. Psychosis as a weapon has only limited applications. As a grand strategy it inevitably runs up against the brick wall of reality. The time is coming when the rest of the world can no longer tolerate this madness.
PS: great writing Nat, some lovely turns of phrase!
The outcome of the conflict in Southern Lebanon is actually pretty much open, as Afro surmises.
To give the opposite view from the Israeli side:
1) Ever since the war re-started, Hezbollah has been losing ground to the Israeli army. Israel is claiming 534km2 of Lebanese territory (as delimited by the infamous “yellow line”) and intends to control a significant chunk of Lebanese maritime zone as well which, surprise, surprise, contains offshore gas fields.
2) Israel has been systematically levelling Lebanese villages, bridges, infrastructure, cemeteries, and reportedly spraying defoliants on fields and orchards. South Lebanon is rapidly becoming uninhabitable — genocide in action, Gaza style.
3) While people focus on the hundreds of casualties suffered so far by the Israeli armed forces, Hezbollah is itself sustaining several hundreds of fatalities on a weekly basis, including amongst senior military and political personnel.
It is therefore an attrition war between Hezbollah and the Israelis, in parallel with a genocide of the Israelis against the Lebanese in general (currently Shias and Christians), and it is unclear who will crack first. Remember that Hezbollah is being attacked on its flank from Syria (where in addition local forces operate against Hezbollah, but not against Israel), and remains politically under pressure from other Lebanese parties.
No idea who wins. However,
1.) Territory doesn’t matter. Israel has been to Beirut before.
2.) Genocide has a nice way of turning people who previously were supportive or neutral into joining the adversaries. When Israel first went in to Lebanon, the Shia were supportive. Israel risks flipping the anti-Shia block in Lebanon into the anti-Israel column.
3.) I am skeptical about how long Syria remains committed, given that Israel has announced that Syria and Turkey are next. The sensible thing for Syria at this point would be to do everything they could to secretly help Hezbollah in their fight with the Israeli’s, to weaken the Israelis before they turn on Syria. Certainly, Erdogan historically has not been adverse to the double cross.
Perhaps the Israeli’s have better brain-washing these days, but the last time they left Beirut, it was due to intolerance for pretty low levels of casualties. If the claims about reservists not showing up are true, morale is poor, and its not clear how many bloody noses they will tolerate before changing the tune. Also, given elections in October, there may be a new political vision by that time. Granted, the Israeli’s will still be Israeli’s, but maybe the seven-front war concept will be subject to review.
I have heard that some weaponry is getting to Hezbollah via Syria which is interesting. Hezbollah knows that taking territory is the easy part. Holding it is another matter altogether. But this time around Hezbollah is using drones and are getting good at using them. Down the track Israel may still have bases in Lebanon but what use would they be if Hezbollah were constantly attacking them with drones? And running patrols would not be a healthy idea either unless the Israelis started to use drones for this. I would not be surprised to hear that Zelenski has sent a drone unit to Israel to help them in Lebanon like he has done for the Gulf Countries. For a price of course.
1) Territory matters a lot to Israelis — their fighting in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, and Lebanon is primarily about conquering territory. The war against Yemen and Iran isn’t, obviously. The Egyptians have been massively reinforcing their military presence in the Sinai, including the deployment of the Chinese equivalent of the S-300 for a good reason.
2) Israelis view Lebanese Shias as enemies; for them, Christians do not count (do they still in today’s Lebanese politics?); Sunnis will keep quiet as long as they are not directly attacked; Druzes are an enigma (but see their opportunistic cooperation with Israel in Syria). I doubt the Lebanese will rise united to fight Israel as long as it keeps its depredation South of the Litani river (on the other hand, Israelis being Israelis, as you say, they cannot help themselves).
3) Syria is as factional and incoherent as Lebanon and Iraq, and I do not have a clue what goals (apart from surviving) the current regime is pursuing.
My point is that this is an attrition war (another one). It is not going swimmingly for Israel, but neither is it going swimmingly for Hezbollah. I do not know who will break first, but historically it was Israel in 2006, and Hezbollah in 2024. My observations:
1) Losses (esp. equipment) are high on the Israeli side, but they are also massive (esp. personnel) on Hezbollah’s.
2) Hezbollah significantly stepped up its game regarding drone warfare, but, to my surprise, Israel seems to have learned absolutely nothing in that respect since 2023.
3) The fact that, day after day, Hezbollah is pummelling Israeli positions, bases, and towns with the whole range of missiles, rockets, drones, and even towed artillery at its disposal means that the 2023-2024 attrition war it waged against the Israeli surveillance infrastructure — laying waste to the belt of cameras, radars, sensors, observation airships, and telecommunication towers built on the border with Lebanon — has severely degraded the counter-battery capabilities of the Israelis.
4) The fact that Israelis are razing everything to the ground means that even if they retreat, Hezbollah will be prevented from effectively re-establishing a presence in South Lebanon to launch attacks from there.
5) While Israeli morale my be faltering, Hezbollah is itself under extreme political pressure. The war against Iran forces Israel to devote more resources away from Lebanon, and the coordinated IRGC-Hezbollah blows against Israel are of course an advantage for Hezbollah; on the other hand, Syria is actively hostile to Hezbollah — and I suspect NATO countries help Israel in its fight against the Shias.
So my conclusion is that at this stage we can hardly determine whether the conflict is going more favourably for one side or the other.
This is a very fair overview of what seems to be taking place in Southern Lebanon! Thanks!
The only thing that seems clear is that the intensity has been taken up an order of magnitude over previous ones. While I have no clue who might “win,” it does seem to imply that a negotiated peace is very unlikely in the near future: there’s far too much committed by both sides for that at the moment. In particular, I think a negotiated peace any time soon, without IDF having been obviously broken, will mean, for practical purposes, the end of the Lebanese state as currently exists. The Sunni and Druze might be fine with it: the former aren’t affected much and the latter aren’t so invested in current state structures anyways. For the Shia and the Christians, it will be a catastrophe–and the latter make for an interesting wild card. The Lebanese Christians are very well represented among the Western elite, including one of Trump’s own sons in law.
Perhaps the most famous Lebanese Christian in the US, NN Taleb, is not shy about being anti-Israel
Sounds like it’s going swimmingly for the IDF! Forgive me for pointing out that your post has the air of the nightly news reports with their impressive body counts during the Vietnam War. Perhaps genocide is the winning strategy and Westpoint will be giving classes on it using the Israeli model but I remain unconvinced.
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/zionism-is-not-reformable-israels
All the territory Isr holds is from the ceasfire violations (uncontested by Hizbollah). They have advanced nothing at all since then and they’ve lost at least 70 Merkava tanks, probably over 100, which is 1/4 of their operative numbers.
9 April IDF broke the “Trump” ceasefire claiming “it did not include Lebanon”. This was done with air force freed from attacking Iran.
IDF is grabbing undefended towns and bulldozing to create a no mans land!
So how did IDF do against a town with geographic importance: Bint Jbeil?
They attacked 9 Apr the day they broke the ceasefire, caught Hizbolah on its back foot.
Since 9 Apr IDF pushed in, fell back, pushed in, and fell back, their main achievement in Bint Jbeil is body count!
IDF seems to be observing the recent ceasefire since 19 Apr.
Having done no better in Bint Jbeil than in 2006, IDF losing a goodly number of tanks and other vehicles.
When the shooting resumes IDF won’t have attack fighters in numbers they had breeching the cease fire.
Israel is forcibly respecting Trump’s orders to cease the fire in Lebanon since just a few days ago (what proves that it’s the dog which wags the tail, BTW, as expected) BUT all what I said is that Isr positions in Lebanon were captured within the previous (2024 onwards) “ceasfire”, the one that suddenly forced Hizbollah to cease their campaign in support of Gaza and soon after was reinforced by the Julani takeover of Syria. That “ceasefire”, which Hizbollah obeyed (even if not a signatory) but Israel violated all the time.
That’s what Israel controls in Southern Lebanon, what they could take unoppossed in 2025. It’s not even what appears in Israeli propaganda maps, but about half of it, all the rest paintbrush.
For more details, maybe the weekly Electronic Intifada sit reps by John Elmer? There are other sources but that one is probably the best one.
I saw two new stories of refineries not in the middle east being damaged in Links today. I think I’ve seen others in the past few weeks, in Russia, Australia, Texas, and Europe. Obv Russia is because war, though that energy infrastructure didn’t have to be targeted.
Are the non-Russian, non-ME refinery incidents normal, and I’m only noticing because of our war against Iran? Or is there a global war against the petroleum economy being waged either as part of or piggybacked onto our war against Iran?
Difficult to say without long-term statistics, but the month of April 2026 is not even finished and it has already seen a surprising number of serious incidents in refineries all around the world. Seeing the countries, at least three of those are due to war (Russia, Kuwait, Bahrain).
Then there was that fire at a refinery in India that Modi was supposed to open tomorrow mentioned in today’s Links. You are right to be suspicious about the frequency of this happening.
Are they just “over clocking” the refineries? Basically pushing them outside the safety limits perhaps.
That one in India was brand new and was due to be opened by Modi himself tomorrow-
https://x.com/upuknews1/status/2046162609687400542
That’s true, and I think we’re seeing multiple reasons dog-piling on. There will for sure be some over-clocking, some sabotage, some disgruntled (toilet paper) workers, some Covid brain, some adjustments for new crude sources that haven’t been tried in years or ever, plus all the old guys retiring…
I meant to include something on this in the round-up, but ran out of time and stamina. Something very fishy is going on. Cui bono?
This smacks of what Enron did to California two decades ago.
It’s to the advantage of oil speculators to take refineries out of production in times of shortage in order to drive up prices. These speculators don’t give a rat’s a** about the overall economy; all that they care about is lining their own pockets.
The U.S. administration has shown itself to favor speculators over consumers at every turn. T has as much as said that an oil crisis is an opportunity to make a lot of money.
Thanks for including the Eurodollar University video – it’s very good and a big help in understanding how it all works.
Short version – UAE has become a major dollar financial center with lots of dollars going in and out. The dollar swap request is not because the UAE is threatening to go off the dollar standard, in fact quite the opposite It’s because the UAE is seeing fewer incoming dollars due to the ongoing war slowing petroleum purchases and tourism. But the UAE has obligations in dollars too where it needs to send dollars out, thus the potential swap vehicle.
Presumably the UAE’s reference to its option of opening Yuan swaps with China is in fact about a CNY-USD swap, I.e. the UAE would become a Yuan borrower and China a dollar creditor of UAE (by selling UST and transferring the proceeds or just lending UST to UAE). The Eurodollar University video did not address this part but I don’t see another rationale.
Thanks. One thing I wish these financial types would do more is give concrete examples of the types of derivatives trades they refer to and what the potential benefits and risks are for each counterparty. They use a lot of jargon assuming the listeners understand the lingo, rather than breaking things down.
I have found that when they do break things down, it’s generally fairly easy to understand. Which is why I think a lot of them prefer the jargon – it makes their world seem incomprehensible to the average person, which gives them an advantage.
I hadn’t listened to the last five minutes previously, and I just went back and listened to the whole thing again after seeing your comment. He mentions the dollar swap line, and I think my initial comment was correct, but in the entire video he doesn’t mention what exactly is being swapped. Presumably this is UAE currency, which is pegged to the USD – is that correct? And this swap could be described as basically a USD line of credit for the UAE to keep them well supplied with dollars.
I think you are saying that the UAE had run a separate yuan swap up the flagpole? Maybe that serves two purposes – it’s incentive (or mild threat) for the US to grant the dollar swap line, and a hedge in case they for some reason don’t.
But the bottom line is that with oil not being sold and tourism slowed, the UAE needs dollars and doesn’t want to dip into their own reserves just yet. So they need to come from somewhere in order to keep the financial industry that has opened branches in the UAE happy. Otherwise they pull up stakes too.
Yes, the UAE said that without a dollar swap line they would not to explore other liquidity solutions, e.g. Yuan.
I can only make practical sense of that if they mean that to get the dollars they would take on Yuan debts.
Now, both are foreign currencies so the UAE is in the dangerous position of borrowing in a currency it has to earn. And from the US perspective, pressure on the UAE to earn Yuan is pressure on the UAE to sell oil for Yuan and to invest the Yuan in Chinese assets.
So the politics if indebting itself to China may work in the UAE’s favour. Owe the bank $1m and you have a problem. Owe two banks $1tn and you have a negotiation….
Yes. The local central bank can always create its own currency. Swaps that with the Fed to get dollars.
thank you Nat, not only for the wealth of material you weave together so well, but also for your sensibility.
You put me in mind of Lambert, fearless guide to the zeitgeist.
Please be not offended, for this is high praise indeed.
I’m honored! Lambert is one of my blogging models.
The tone of NK has always made room for snark. Lambert Strether’s snark was witty and urbane (eg “Dear Hunter!”) – as befits a Henry James character. The new guy’s snark (eg “Mad King”, “evil dotard”, “gray matter leaking out like stuffing”) is, uh, rabble-rousing – as befits a C19th black American preacher.
To which I can only respond, “Helleeelooyeah!”
OK, so now I am starting to understand the markets and crude prices during this war. Faking it until they can’t make it.
It frightens me to think that being exposed to all the horrible media on the internet has made younger folk all insensitive to an actual war we are waging on millions of innocents. Anyway, I will be slowly stocking up on oil based products until then to be as useful to others when the Second Great Depression hits.
“It frightens me to think that being exposed to all the horrible media on the internet has made younger folk all insensitive to an actual war we are waging on millions of innocents.” – citation needed please. I think what you are attributing to insensitivity is resignation to the fact that their country has been engaged in vile and unnecessary wars longer than they’ve been alive and there really isn’t anything they can do about it. Of course, most of the younger people I know are also struggling to keep their heads above water, so it could be there’s not a ton of leftover bandwidth for global politics that they can’t influence too.
Not to mention since sometime around 1970 USA can incinerate the civilized world several times over with nukes from aircraft, land ICBM’s and Submarine LBM’s.
Trump needs to go!
re: Patricia Marins has an interesting essay at Global 21
Interestingly, these are the classic management negotiating tactics used by union-busting corporations. I’ve been on bargaining teams and witnessed the same tactics and misinformation deliberately spread to members for the same reasons. Expecting it, we educated the members before bargaining began.
The question here becomes if the Iranians are expecting this or not. If they have no trade unions in the same sense and no experience of adversarial bargaining/negotiation, how would they know?
I think Marins’ thesis borders on orientalism, maybe unintentional maybe not. Similar to people who assume any sophisticated Iranian technology must be a gift from Russia or China.
Why, I wonder, do I see no speculation that the Iranian speaker and foreign minister and IRGC are playing at good cop / bad cop, as many see Putin and Medvedev doing?
There is nothing inherently “orientalist” about this theory. As Es s Ce Tera’s example indicates, it is a common propaganda tactic in any similar situation to sow doubt among the target group. As an explanation for Trump administration rhetoric it makes sense to me. What we do not know is the extent to which this has any effect on Iranian perceptions. There are real disagreements among “moderates” and “hardliners” in Iran. But personally I think those involved on the Iranian side understand with whom they are dealing and are wise enough not to fall for such games.
Certainly not inherent. I did say “borders on”. And I implied the argument itself might be part of a psyop—concern trolling basically. Those are mutually exclusive alternatives in my mind, unconscious bias or deliberate propaganda.
I stand by my latter point: I have seen people expressing concerns over possible divisions within Iran, and I have seen people suggest that the US is playing mind games in the negotiations, but I can’t recall seeing anyone suggest that the Iranians might be employing similar tactics on the US.
Why would Iranians even pay attention to such tactics? If they are bloody minded in achieving their goal, that is escape velocity and liberation from the cage imposed by the US for almost 50 years, what other deal is better?
I sometimes wonder if Iran should use reciprocal actions when negotiating” with the Trump regime. So have their negotiating team have the same number of people that the US negotiating team which is only just. And for their lead negotiators, have the Speaker of their Parliament – but accompanied by two rich Iranian real estate hucksters. Then in the middle of the negotiations have the Iranians take phone calls from China’s President Xi. Sounds fair to me.
That diss would probably be too subtle for the Trumpies. They need an Iran Social where they can make incoherent pronouncements.
For what audience would this kind of posturing be? US appears to be agreement-incapable; posturing towards them seems to be pointless. If the audience is “rest of world”, it’s best to appear to be more serious about the negotiations than US appears to be. Someone is going to “win” blame for the trouble that is coming on the world economy, and it’s in Iran’s interest that most of that falls on US.
Toss in a few rambling and unhinged social media posts from the Supreme Leader while we’re at it.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment: if this situation was reversed (if Iran has attacked the US, threatened to end the US civilization, conducted bad faith, unserious peace talks, etc.) would the rest of the world jump in or continue to sit on their hands, occasionally tut-tutting?
The “west”, captured by oligarchy, would go to war
With what? They outsourced and financialized their weapons making capabilities…
including Spain?
No no, that is entirely beneath the dignity of President Xi, for right proportionality it ought be an ostensible “proxy” giving the Iranian delegation instructions…ah yes. Every 2 hours of negotiation, Araghchi excuses himself to take a call from Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.
I was thinking Kim Jong Un.
How about several “negotiators” dressed up as Lego Brick People?
Will someone please tell me why after 20 years Iraq continues to accept a system in which the US controls all of their oil revenues? Why don’t they simply renounce the system as colonial exploitation or something and insist on being paid directly? What is the US going to do, invade them again to seize their oil revenues? Under the current circumstances, not likely I would think.
Because oil trades is in dollars and the US controls dollar payment systems. A big reason is most buyers hedge and the hedging instruments are all in dollars.
Per Middle East Online, hardly a US friendly publication:
https://middle-east-online.com/en/us-halts-security-ties-dollar-flows-iraq-pressure-over-militias
And IIRC these arrangements have UN approval, so sanctions-busting them would be serious.
Now that the US is out of the Gulf, loading a tanker with Iraqi oil under some other arrangement is possible. There is still a challenge getting out of the Gulf and not getting sanctioned at the other end.
And the bigger challenge of how to maintain an Iraqi state in the absence of cash flow.
It looks like the plan is to move the border of Syria style chaos right up to the Iran’s by liquidating Iraq all together.
Greece couldn’t magically shift to an alternate currency in peacetime when Syriza was put in the ECB vice, it seems exceptionally unlikely Iraq can in full war mode: although that “state of emergency” creates the political opening, the operational capability is so far not evident.
Not the first time that the US has used this mechanism to control Iraq. In the recent past the US will add all sorts of demands and conditions on Iraq’s money before they get any of it. In the present fracas, if Trump was not so distracted I am sure that he would say that he has the right to choose Iraq’s next leader like he has said with other countries. You wonder at what point the Iraqis will revolt and settle all oil sales in Yuan. Yes, it would cause chaos in Iraq but the alternative is to be slowly strangled over time by US demands and control. It’s what happens when you pay a form of danegeld.
But can’t they follow the Russian and Iranian example and forsake the dollar?
It took Putin a very uncomfortable two decades to make Russia an autarky adequate to withstand dollar sanctions while Iran grew into that organically over the last 45 years under it’s perma-sanctions.
Dollars are the blood circulating in the body of Iraq, without a transfusion of cash flow from elsewhere the State can’t hold it’s form long without dollars.
Or China throws them a financial life line because of all the Chinese owned oil fields in Iraq that the US would like to take over.
Operationally how does that work?
COMAC 919 airlift of currency? That would mirror what we do.
And anyone can “make money” who in Iraq would accept Yuan and why? Will all the black market entities that form a significant portion of the economy make a synchronous swithch?
What they really need is what money buys. They need food whether they buy it with dollars, yuan, debt or charity. Russia has food, and they at least had a close relationship with Iraq, and might wish to help Iraq break the us strangle hold on the country, but how to get it there?
There is a blockade going on. Where did they get food when they had $? Did it arrive thru Hormuz? If so, having dollars might not solve the problem. Over Iran from caspian?
Interesting to think all the dollars/gold the west has seized from russia/venezuela/iran/iraq, maybe others, too.
Iraq is very import dependent for food. That and its Shiite affiliation with Iran are I expect why the US is making this move: to impose war costs directly on Iran’s allies in the same way Iran is imposing them on US vassals.
The US move remains even if the Straight opens, but with it closed Iraq is already bearing that cost. So, maybe it’s just another symbolic Trump domination play, like blockading the blockade. There are lots of border crossings Iraq to Iran, so I expect Russian relief to Iran may make it further south.
My point was more about the USraeli policy of generating failed states where they can’t impose their will. Iraq is import dependent and was deliberately addicted to dollars by occupation forces in order for them to have this power. For the state apparatus of Iraq to continue to function it will need cash of some form. To answer my question above, maybe Yuan could be used to purchase Russian food delivered across the Caspian which paid in the form of salaries to Iraqi fighters would both keep the state functional and create demand for Yuan, leaving the Russians with their perineal Yuan recycling problem.
Perineal Yuan recyling would be perennially welcomed by Trump. Stick those renmimbi where the sun don’t shine, baby!
I wonder if this move by the US regime has been as well thought through as the attack on Iran? I would imagine Iraq wil not immediately accept US demands and instead look to? Iran? China? Who knows but I would bet it won’t be something those in DC are expecting.
How many billions of dollars do you think the US “owes” Iraq for oil sales? Just to make up sample numbers, if the US gets Iraq its money 1 month after oil sales, then turning away from the US
would mean giving up 1 month’s worth of revenue, or 8% of its annual income, while it’s living paycheck to paycheck so to speak.
The topic of this header was addressed in one of Alexander Mercouris’ programs two days past I think (they all bleed together now) in the context of one of these incidents in which an IRGC commander takes umbrage over something a diplomatic grandee’s said publicly – per Mercouris, not necessarily a subject matter expert but learned anyway, these sorts of visible, external indications of division should be understood as more or less the normal functioning of an always factional government in Iran, something more akin (my comparison now) to Democrats sounding off on a Republican administration’s foreign policy decisions – even as they share in essence identical objectives – rather than an indicator of serious fracturing.
As Es s Ce Tera intimates above, the more competent actors (whoever they are?) in the American foreign policy apparatus have presumably apprised themselves of this Iranian tendency and are attempting to leverage it in negotiation. Frankly I think the details of diplomatic tactics in this case are probably more or less irrelevant since even a diplomatic victory will not be permitted by the powers that Bibi unless it is maximalist unto complete Iranian capitulation.
While Mirandi is certainly solidly aligned with Iran, his watch what they do, not what they say attitude has to have penetrated most echelons in Iran.
Of course there is all kinds of dissent, probably through most ranks of most sectors of society, military and civilian. However, the now obvious chaos of Syria and Iraq has not been lost on dissenters by most credible accounts.
After what Iran has seen from the West in the last year, why would they believe anything on X, Bluesky, Truth Social or any other anti-social media? Explosions near by focus perceptions.
CIA, MI6 and Mossad failed to create a Shi’a version of ISIS.
Iran is not Iraq, Syria nor Afghanistan!
Note Well: US, Kurd and Iraqi forces were inept at taking out US’ ISIS in N Iraq, it was PMF and Quds that did away with the US tools!
Most US presence in Iraq is gone!
On this topic see my comment below on the discussion by Jeremy Scahill with the Iranian analyst (Dr.) Hassan Ahmadian. It is brought up tangentially towards the end.
“the powers that Bibi”
That’s a keeper!!
In short:
This is a settler-colonial project, not a negotiation. “Negotiation” is about scoring political points on domestic fronts.
US broke the cease fire. Maybe Iran can resume bombing Israel sooner than later.
I believe it is time for President Trump to do something that no other sitting President has done. He needs to personally observe the not-a-war-but-WTF-is-it-then? zone. He should do this, as befits his military prowess as Commander in Chief, by flying over Tehran personally, in a B-52 going low and slow.* Since they have no “Anti Airplane Equipment” this should be perfectly safe for him and will demonstrate to those obstinate Persians, once and for all, Who Is Boss, and definitely cow them into submission!
He will, of course, need to let them know he is coming.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
*with a volunteer and minimal crew.
and his entire cabinet, though, for a “clean break.”
And if he got shot down and captured, Vance would presumably take the rains of power. I wonder if he’d order a massive operation involving special forces, the CIA, and multiple aircraft (not to mention quantum heartbeat monitors) to get Trump back. Or just smirk.
The rains of power? Après moi, le déluge!
More likely Iran would tell the US that unless they get reasonable to their demands, then they will immediately return Trump back again.
It is hard for me to understand how Iran is allowing the USA/Israel to dictate when war goes hot or cold without seeing it as a sign of vulnerability. Why did they stop on cue and are allowing their enemy to replenish at will?
I don’t know nuttin’, but a couple of possible reasons come to mind:
1) As Yves pointed out the other day, there’s war theory that it’s ultimately more efficient to respond to the aggressor precisely tit-for-tat.
2) It looks better in the eyes of the world to never put Iran in the position of aggressor, much the same reason Russia has been said to be less than maximalist toward taking Ukraine.
3) While the US and Israel were reloading, Iran was too.
…and Iran is just getting to their brand spanking newest hardware. US and Israel not so much.
4) Iran’s main weapon is economic, and delay with no oil flow increases their leverage. Oil shortages are just now starting to become critical as the last tankers from February are emptied in faraway ports, with no replacements expected. Iran needed to wait 6 weeks for the shortages to kick in, and they managed to get two weeks out of six with no bombing.
Imo most important. Explains not responding to Israel’s attack on Hezbollah.
Gets closer to when markets realize its hit the fan. And how long can those boats sit there? Haven’t they already been on mission for record periods? Are those running out of their crappy rations?
Waiting Iranian soldiers no doubt also on edge but maybe they get to go home nights/weekends now and then for a little r&r/home cooking.
Hizbolah is a tar baby!
IDF is counting bodies while stuck on the tar!
And since Iran’s weapons are considerably cheaper than the USA’s, they can probably replenish them a lot faster. $20,000 drones versus multi-million dollar interceptor missiles. Plus a lot of Iran’s stuff was in bunkers rendered inaccessible by enemy bombs, but not destroyed – and they’ve been digging it out.
It will be most of a decade before US goes from XX missiles per month to YYY if they can get the refined rare earth metals!
That is how the MIC rolls….. slow and expensive, with low quality output.
Game theory.
Applies to evolution. The Selfish Gene had some pretty cool illustrations using simple algorithms to show that for any organism, the tit-for-tat strategy has the highest survival value over repeated iterations.
5) Delay makes any ground operation soon untenable because heat.
I think the Iranians believe time is on their side. The pain felt by the West and ROW will be worse than that of the Iranians who can bide their time and ready for the next inevitable blow up. The US and Israelis are only capable of fighting rapid vicious annihilations of inferior foes. (Bullies) Never interrupt your enemy when he is acting foolishly.
Iran has won the actual kinetic war (not the PR propaganda war in which USA is the undisputed champion of the universe and no one can ever defeat them in this space). There is nothing the Junited States or Israel can do to change that fact, other than use nuclear weapons. And even then they will probably still lose, as in Israel will turn into a glass parking lot and cease to exist, and Junited States govt will lose whatever tiny shred of legitimacy it still has remaining inside and outside the Junited States, and which will lead to a true regime change (1776 or 1917 style).
The one thing that Iran still has to worry about, and worry a great deal about, is world opinion. They do not want to be blamed for causing a worldwide famine and economic depression. Now they have done a good job so far, and most of the world knows that it was the Junited States that started an unprovoked war of aggression and that Iran was the victim. So far so good. But as the economic pain gets worse and worse, there will be more and more outcries against Iran for closing Hormuz and that they should open it up, even while Junited States is still bombing them. So therefore Iran has to walk a tightrope to manage expectations. That is why they have to agree to talks and negotitations that go nowhere, because they have to tell the rest of the world that hey, we tried to make peace, we are reasonable, it is the Junited States who are unhinged and unreasonable.
It’s by no means certain that nuclear weapons would bring about Iran’s defeat, although many seem to take it as given. Japan was about to surrender anyway when the US decided to test Fat Man and Little Boy. Would Iran give up if two of its smaller cities were obliterated? And levelling all major cities would risk a nuclear winter, affecting the USA as much as anyone, on top of the global shortages of oil, gas and fertilisers already baked in. Even Trump might think twice about that and the USA’s ensuing pariah status.
Iran has also framed its attacks as proportionate retaliation for US or Israeli attacks (e.g., they attacked oil infrastructure only after the US/Israel did it to them). So while the US is not shooting, their own rules of engagement argue against hitting US targets. I expect if the US does start shooting again, Iran will be swift to resume.
One thing they could do under their own rules (but haven’t) is continue to hit Israel, since they defined Lebanon/Hezbollah as part of the scope of the conflict and Israel is still attacking there. I believe at the moment the threat of attacking Israel (as a tactic for pressuring the US) is more useful to them than actually doing so.
‘But as the economic pain gets worse and worse, there will be more and more outcries against Iran for closing Hormuz and that they should open it up, even while Junited States is still bombing them.’
Not so. With the Iranian blockade, some ships were allowed out. With the US blockade, they are trying to stop all ships getting out so this is on the US.
> here is nothing the Junited States or Israel
This is excellent wordplay and made me very uncomfortable. I searched the phrase and it has come up before, but the rabbit hole just got yuckier. I followed that up and for the first time ever goog shot me this:
> Our systems have detected unusual traffic from your computer network. This page checks to see if it’s really you sending the requests, and not a robot. Why did this happen?
with a box for me to check. Which I did not.
I use certain offensive phrases when I am hot about class structure. Not publicly. I am not a moderator, nor am I trying to make assignments here. But the world, and internet environment are changing rapidly enough, and now the ai is asking me to verify my offensive inquiry, that I want to throw a pebble in the pond on this subject. The phrase really is a power word spell.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116442383515973098
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116442908819175250
Looks like Trump is injecting hasbara directly into his veins right before another probably sham negotiation
Just before the war I read an article stating the number of people that Saudi Arabia were executing and it worked out to be about one a day which is very impressive. But nobody talks about that. As for those eight women, I wonder what the charges are against them that would require capital punishment. Espionage perhaps? Mossad agents? Certainly it was not for forgetting to wear a scarf in public. Now I am wondering if the real reason that that Iranian ship was shelled and its crew and family members were taken was to act as hostages for a future prisoner swap.
Nothing gets the president’s attention like young thirst traps in need of his personal assistance.
Cargo from China? That seems stupidly risky.
Thanks Nat for the ongoing updates. Does anyone have any current information about the flow of US materiel and troops to the theatre?
The most updated info I could find was the Rybar post which Will Schryver cited, but I wouldn’t consider it definitive.
I don´t know anything about Rybar myself and other such sources. All I remember is that re: SMO Martyanov warned of Rybar as unreliable and worse.
But that doesn´t necessarily has anything to say vis a vis Iran.
Schryver will quote not without reason, I guess.
Since there is no current kinetic action these days, I will convey that KJ Noh, in an interview with Rachel Blevins, stated that during the US-Iraq war (a much smaller, flatter country without the subterranean infrastructure), the US flew 109,000 sorties in 38 days. During the same period of the US-Iran war, the US flew 13,000 sorties, indicating that, although the US air fleet on paper is the same size, its operating at best at ~10%. He suggests that when Trump restarts the war, watch the sortie rate as an indicator of attrition due to maintenance issues and parts cannibalization – note, the US counted on its area bases for parts and repairs.
Probably less an indication of direct attrition than circumstances: the ability to operate from “local” bases is limited (many of the local bases no longer exist!), the ordinance is mostly limited to stand off weapons which are in short supply, ISR over Iran is limited due to destruction of the radars–can’t see where the Iranian missiles are coming from, and so on. Plus, in spite of the wild claims by Trump, available air assets for US, both overall and in theater, are vastly smaller than in 2003, especially due to lack of personnel.
A couple of comments. Flight time to Iraq was very short, taking off from all of those GCC bases. No need for refueling or limited refueling compared to Iran where most/all need refueling.
Also Iraq after the first few days really didn’t have any Air Force or anti aircraft capability making it very safe to fly around and bomb stuff.
In Iran, as best I can tell most all the bombs have been stand off missiles not solid bombs. And look what happened in Iran when the US decided to fly some
Distance into their country. Depending on what numbers you use 7-10 aircraft destroyed worth about 6-700 million dollars.
Very different wars
GAO tracks Mission Capable (MC) rates of US fighter aircraft. Most struggle to break 50% full mission capable (FMC) while flying routine training schedules.
Strike and escort missions requiring several refueling, over long range will stress the stock of expensive, irreplaceable, complex spare parts (navy calls them weapon replaceable parts (WRU))….. these parts are replenished from depot repair facilities, who in term run short on grommets to fix the black boxes, and their testers wear out and break as well. Getting the reparable parts out of the war zone is slow and harders for CVN aviation!
Two week stand down has likely helped in theater MC!
An informative discussion.
Diplomacy or Escalation? The Iran War at a Crossroads
Good link! thanks!
I second Nat’s thanks for the Scahill/Ahmadian discussion. Very informative and sensible. I’d suggest hoisting it to Links.
There are two presentations addressing the effect of the energy shock on the world economy.
The Eurodollar University video cited above presents it in financial terms.
The Newbury (Ultimate Avatar of Balance) post presents it in terms of physics.
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-brittle-fracture-why-the-hormuz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUfDYJ2WYRI&t=3s
The eurodollar provides the world economy with liquidity.
The energy inputs (mainly crude oil and natural gas) required to keep the world economy going are acquired with dollars.
The Iran War energy shock is causing the real price of energy to rapidly inflate in real time. The spot price of oil for physical delivery is now roughly double the “paper market” price.
At the same time, eurodollar availability (liquidity) is shrinking for various reasons.
Newbury explains it like this:
“The system is no longer capable of printing the fictitious information [eurodollars] required to mask this [exergy] constraint. If global funding costs are too high to roll over the debt required to maintain our hyper-complex infrastructure (Pmaint), the Effective Circulating Power (Peff) of the economy drops towards zero. At that precise moment, the financial mechanism violently inverts. Claims on future energy are retroactively voided. This is the ‘brittle-fracture’. The market doesn’t inflate; it breaks. The lack of dollars will force a massive, involuntary deleveraging across Western economies, triggering a crash in asset prices and frozen credit markets.”
In other words, massive deflation.
In the following post, Newbury further argues that the US is performing a global entropy dump, citing the second law of thermodynamics — that you cannot locally reduce entropy (order your own system) without increasing entropy to a greater degree elsewhere.
Newbury traces this to the mismatch of the light sweet crude the US produces with the need for the heavier crude to produce the middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) that runs the industrial machine. So the US is securing the remaining pools of heavy crude and eliminating international competition for the middle distillates. He calls it brutal global triage. He thinks this “brittle fracture” is now baked into the system.
https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-avatar-and-the-entropy-dump-why
Excellent link, thanks!
Very interesting, especially this historical tidbit –
“When the American oil industry birthed itself in the mid-19th century in Pennsylvania, the crude was exceptionally light and sweet. The sole economic objective was producing kerosene for illumination. But fractional distillation is a strict biophysical process; boiling light sweet crude yielded a massive percentage of highly volatile, short-chain naphtha and petrol. Because it was explosive and useless for lamps, petrol was a thermodynamic liability. Early refiners literally dumped millions of gallons of it into rivers or burned it in open pits just to get rid of the waste.
The proliferation of the petrol-powered internal combustion engine at the turn of the 20th century was not merely a transport revolution; it was a desperate metabolic adaptation. The automobile acted as a necessary thermodynamic sink to burn off the volatile waste of the kerosene industry, finally allowing the political economy to monetise the entire barrel. The engine was invented so as not to waste most of the crude.”
So, go long kerosene??!? Kidding aside, his points at the start about the just-in-time global supply chain are spot on. It all works great until it doesn’t when there’s no built in redundancy. There’s a reason we build jets with four engines even though they could fly perfectly well with fewer of them most of the time.
Truly putting the cart before the horse.
Due Dissidence on T’s
marbles rattling aroundunhinged takes on the Iran war. utube, ~32+ minutes.Trump RENEWS UNHINGED THREATS Against Iran as STRAIT CLOSED AGAIN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsyzZ8W46OI
Looking at some of Tindale‘s benchmarks:
: Order 2: Refining & Industrial Chemicals (2–6 Weeks)
:: domestic Chinese sulphuric acid pricing breaching 1000 yuan/ton [Currently 1930
: Order 3: Mining & Metals Extraction (1–3 Months)
:: spot acid prices in Kolwezi surging past $700/tonne. [local spot prices nearing $800; not nec Congo?
: Order 4: Grids & Power Hardware (3–12 Months)
:: Siemens Energy and Hitachi order backlogs swelling beyond €146B
:> Siemens Energy’s €146 Billion Order Backlog Meets a Critical Profitability Test [4/20]
: Order 7: Capital Markets & Credit (1–6 Months)
:: KRW/USD exchange rate breaching 1460 [current 1470
{ IANAE, double-check if important to you, but it looks like Tindale is hitting his marks.}
It very briefly crossed KRW1,500 a couple of weeks ago
Excellent screenplay idea.
The main character is the guy who follows the president around and carries the football. The president is becoming increasingly mentally incompetent, and when he finally gives the order to launch the nukes, the football guy realizes he can’t do it and flees. The rest of the movie is a chase as the American establishment tries to find him and recover the football, while various Americans either help him or try to turn him over. The backdrop is the entire world, and our hero is hero indeed.
Maybe too on the nose to produce right now?
And it turns out the ‘football’ has a failsafe mechanism designed specifically for just such a scenario: it orders every US nuclear weapon launched.
Paging Nicholas Cage…
Just scanned the comments so not sure if anyone mentioned this, but something that might be affecting Trump World is those enormous bets placed just before the last three times Trump Tacoed and the fact the oil markets are not buying this latest rush to war. So his crew can’t make a billion or two off inside information. What does he do now? Just go to war anyway, so they pay attention the next time?
Well, there is some of this thinking going around. (My Note: TBD what the future actually will be like):
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026042169/chatgpt-is-so-2025-these-3-sectors-are-the-real-ai-gold-mines-for-2026/
“Geopolitical conflicts are the basis upon which many industries survive and upon which the next generation of unicorns will be built.”
Tracks with the rantings from Palantir that Nat wrote about yesterday.
Bombed “narco boat” was a fishing boat
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/apr/21/ecuador-us-boat-strike-survivors
Iranian family told missing teen was alive, then received his body 60 days later
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604219333
2 Cruise Ships Exit Strait of Hormuz After Being Stranded for Weeks
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/world/middleeast/cruise-ships-strait-hormuz-iran.html
‘Donnyland’? Ukraine Proposes Renaming Part of the Donbas in Trump’s Honor
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/world/europe/donnyland-ukraine-donbas-trump.html
US forces board a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, the Pentagon says
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-tifani-sanctioned-ship-bd0190ae22d133d85f331cb300b179bf
War in Iran causing biggest energy crisis in history, IEA says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/war-iran-is-causing-biggest-energy-crisis-history-iea-says-2026-04-21/
Axios: Vance heads to Islamabad for talks, Iranian team also gets ‘green light’
https://unn.ua/en/news/axios-vance-flies-to-islamabad-for-talks-with-iran-iranian-team-also-given-green-light
‘‘Donnyland’? Ukraine Proposes Naming Part of the Donbas in Trump’s Honor.’
The Donbas? They had better hurry then. Last I heard the Ukrainians only help 16% of that place.
Japan lifts ban on lethal weapons exports in major shift of pacifist policy
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/japan-lifts-ban-on-lethal-weapons-exports-in-major-shift-of-pacifist-policy
Washington Urges Taipei: Arms Procurement ‘Cannot Be Delayed’
https://www.visiontimes.com/2026/04/18/washington-urges-taipei-arms-procurement-cannot-be-delayed.html
Gulf worries US-Iran talks may cement Tehran’s ‘golden’ grip on Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gulf-worries-us-iran-talks-may-cement-tehrans-golden-grip-hormuz-2026-04-20/
Fox News’ Sean Hannity declares he’s ‘no longer a Catholic’ as he sides with Trump in Pope fallout
https://www.irishstar.com/culture/entertainment/sean-hannity-catholic-trump-pope-37037248
Draft-Dodging Trump, 79, Brags About How He Would Have Won Vietnam War in Unhinged Rant
https://www.thedailybeast.com/draft-dodging-trump-79-brags-about-how-he-would-have-won-vietnam-war-in-unhinged-rant/
Pete Hegseth cancels ‘absurd’ flu vaccine requirement for ‘brave warriors’ in military
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/military-flu-vaccine-requirement-hegseth-b2961944.html
These Middle Eastern News Sites Are Actually U.S. Government Propaganda Operations
https://theintercept.com/2026/04/20/pentagon-middle-eastern-news-propaganda-iran/
Trump, 79, Shows Multiple Public Signs of Confusion
https://www.thedailybeast.com/confused-trump-79-cant-keep-plan-straight-after-being-shut-out/
Tucker Carlson Apologizes For Endorsing Trump: ‘I’m Sorry For Misleading People’
https://ijr.com/tucker-carlson-apologizes-for-endorsing-trump-im-sorry-for-misleading-people/
– ‘Fox News’ Sean Hannity declares he’s ‘no longer a Catholic’ as he sides with Trump in Pope fallout’
– ‘Tucker Carlson Apologizes For Endorsing Trump: ‘I’m Sorry For Misleading People’
Looks like the lines are being drawn in MAGA media. Here’s hoping Iran is the final straw for those Trump supporters capable of any degree of critical thought (needless to say that would not include Hannity or those praying for the Apocalypse).
I have been critical of mainstream politics and disdainful of the mainstream media much of my adult life. But I remember the day I finally realized for certain how f**ked it really was. It was during Russiagate. Hannity had always been one of my most despised media personalities, if not my most despised. But I happened to see back-to-back clips from Hannity’s show and Rachel Maddow’s from the previous night. The subject was Russiagate. Everything Hannity said was true, and everything Maddow said was a lie. The degree to which this is all theater really hit me.
That said, I hope those conservative voices critical of the warmongers make a dent. And a sincere thanks to Yves, Nat, and everyone contributing to this site for helping me stay sane.
Henry VIII had Thomas Moore beheaded bc he kept to the Pope!
I side with Thomas More view of the Pope!
An amusing observation by Patricia Marins, on the Twitter
https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/2046616870137037284?s=20
US military spec jet fuel JP-8 is basically commercial Jet A-1 with additives! Mixing the additives is not straight forward.
The US’ Defense Energy Supply Center (DESC, I had experience there during Desert Shield) stocks/stores various types of DoW owned military spec fuels around the world. There are stocks stored, computed and dedicated to specific war plans.
The US probably had the fuel used in stock but may have had part of it located outside the Mediterranean.
1.2 billion litres converts to 2.16 billion pounds of jet fuel (seems high!). F-15 holds 13500 pounds, F-16 holds about 6000 pounds fuel, F-35 is 16000 pounds, with a little more for the navy F-35.
That said, limitations: if this thing goes longer DESC will raid other plans’ supplies. Using up that procure fuel in theater is not procured from US vendors if they can blend it.
Re: psyops and internal division,
it appears that Esmail Qaani is alive and well and still in his position within IRGC. A. Mercouris mentioned this in his 4/20 commentary, after (in March) noting speculation that his survival (through not being present at) of a number of strikes on groups of Iranian leaders suggested he might have been fingered as a Western asset and detained and executed
There are press reports of his recent visit to Baghdad.
Interesting discussion of why US shale production likely will not act as shock absorber for the coming oil crunch
https://x.com/max_gagliardi/status/2046278169033101674?s=61&t=svPNlQTYjd6QAZTcn6A-9w
excellent find, thanks.
The latest update I’ve seen has The Daily Mail reporting that Vance has not yet departed for Pakistan, at 1:10 pm EDT Tuesday.
Just in…US envoy (JD Vance, et al) trip to Pakistan is on hold due to Iran’s lack of response.
Shocked I tell you, shocked! Well, not that shocked.
NYT:
Iran War Live Updates: Vance’s Trip to Peace Talks on Hold
Trump’s social media posts have transformed oil trading in Iran war, says Citadel – FT (archived)
He [Sebastian Barrack, Citadel’s head of commodities] said the Trump administration was in close contact with traders to try to determine the impact of the conflict on the markets. “They have done a phenomenal job of understanding and staying in touch with all the relevant people in the industry,” he said. “They understand the mechanics of the market very well. The administration is the one who is sitting with more information than anybody in this room.”
Any connection with the bets placed minutes before important announcements regarding the war? The whole paragraph could be read as exactly that.
Run government like a business they said…
In Palm Beach you can see the string between Mar A Lago and Ken’s place…
Alaska airlines is the latest airline to hit the confession booth:
https://www.airwaysmag.com/new-post/alaska-air-suspends-2026-guidance-q1-results
Earnings? We ain’t got no stinkin’ earnings!
Southern Poverty Law Center says it’s being investigated by DOJ
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5841063-southern-poverty-law-center-doj-splc/
Donald Trump tried to ‘use nuclear codes’ claims: what we know
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-nuclear-codes-11857229
Bittersweet emotions as Lebanese return south to scenes of destruction – The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/19/lebanese-return-south-ceasefire-flattened-neighbourhoods-israel
I am having some trouble figuring out the sweet part for the bittersweet process of having your house razed to the ground
TASNIM: Iran will not be attending the negotiations in Islamabad on Wednesday.
NBC, 20 minutes later: “Iran won’t confirm it will attend peace talks.”
And of course that’s a true statement, they will not confirm what they’ve just explicitly denied.
Everywhere, there are editors working tirelessly to make the news Fit
the narrativeto Print.Taco has landed
Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing ‘seriously fractured’ Iranian government (CNBC)
As we know, Trump only fights wars when the market is closed.
So now we have an open-ended, supposedly, ceasefire, while Iran continues to control the strait, and Trump is enforcing a leaky blockade, and tons of new material is being flown in by the US daily. And the damage to the world economy accrues daily.
“Trump’s extension of the ceasefire makes no sense. The losing side does not set the terms.”
–Mahdi Mohammadi (the Iranian analyst, not the football player)
Unilateral TACO, as Trita Parsi and many others predicted.
Trump can never agree to peace terms acceptable to Iran.
But neither can Trump escalate militarily (eg., bomb Iranian power plants, infrastructure etc.) and risk global economic catastrophe.
Unilateral TACO thus was the only feasible move at this point. How long the blockade can/will be maintained is an open question.
I guess a unilateral, permanent ceasefire by Trump, assuming Israel plays ball, and maritime trade resuming through the strait on Iran’s terms, the sooner the better, might be the best possible outcome for the world economically. I imagine it’ll take some coaxing to get vessels to begin to transit the strait again in any number, given the martial risks and the insurance costs.
A quasi-permanent unilateral ceasefire (no guarantee U.S. and/or Israel will not attack again) with the naval blockade and economic stranglehold still in place, is hardly an ideal outcome for Iran, and possibly an entirely unacceptable one.
Iranian analyst Hassan Ahmadian, in the excellent video with Jeremy Scahill linked above, makes it clear that, apart from an end to military attacks, sanctions relief is the key issue for Iran, specifically regarding the Iran’s oil and gas industry (15:09).
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-war-trump-diplomacy-escalation-hassan-ahmadian
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:
———————————————————————————————
As @POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports. In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.
The @USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.
Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions.
We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.
Do you think it is more acceptable for Asia, Europe, and the US? Asia is already in serious trouble. Europe has a few more weeks. The US is right behind. In another month or so we probably will have a global depression.
It may not be your intention, but this comes off as infantilizing Iran in that you cast them as not knowing how to pursue their goals based on the position they are in. If anything, I would think it is more apt to point that type of analysis at the US, which currently appears to have no plan at all and is running off of emotions and “vibes”.
I guess I’m just tired of people outside of Iran giving lectures on why Iran is in real trouble, without any real discussion of the impending economic doom facing the world. It does not help that you quote Bessent who is completely out of his depth and often appears to enjoy inflicting economic pain on others.
FYI, I was giving voice to a view from INSIDE Iran, namely that of Dr. Hassan Ahmadian, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Tehran University.
I’m assuming the first paragraph is from you as this is what I was focusing on. Apologies for being unclear on that point. Also, I see nothing in the article that reflects this type of position from Professor Ahmadian.
I’ve not had a chance to watch the entire video yet, but unless I’m misunderstanding you, his position does not support/match what you are asserting.
I’m also seeing news it was at Pakistan’s request, from AP News and the Guardian.
Blame the other side, claim it’s a favor to a friend, etc. Wonder what the next excuse is – dog ate homework?
In addition, the George H. W. Bush carrier strike group has yet to arrive on scene.
USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker: April, 20 2026 shows the group off the coast of Madagascar.
Interestingly, the Ford CSG looks like it is about as far away from Bab-el-Mandeb as you can be in the Red Sea.
You mean:
Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing ‘seriously fractured’
IranianUS government.He comes down from yellow mountain
On social media he writes
Of an extension of a ceasefire
With Hannity by his side
On a TACO Tuesday night
Oh, they say he chickened out again
When there came a question of cost
And the so-called ceasefire
Busted down upon him
In a word blizzard online, his gain our loss
He ran calling ceasefire!
Calling ceasefire!
Calling ceasefire!
So by the dark of the moon, he plotted
But there came a no-go
Been Hormuz howling online in my window now
‘Bout six weeks in a row
Comeuppance is coming for me, I know
And after ceasefire we’re both gonna go
We’ll be re-writing ceasefire
Re-writing ceasefire
Re-writing ceasefire
On ceasefire we’re gonna re-write
Gonna leave bygones behind
Get the hard times right on out of our minds
Re-writing ceasefire!
Wildfire, by Michael Martin Murphey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2ZrHyMfkO8&list=RDl2ZrHyMfkO8
Ukraine says Druzhba pipeline running Russian oil to Europe can resume work
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/4/21/ukraine-says-druzhba-pipeline-running-russian-oil-to-europe-can-resume-work
The Iran War Sent Shock Waves Through Asia That Are Likely to Spread
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/world/asia/asia-pacific-iran-war-oil.html
Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing ‘seriously fractured’ Iranian government
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/trump-iran-war-ceasefire.html
Prez Don’s Rump blustercucks again. Rattling his broken saber with hours to a drop dead deadline in the Ramadan War, Rump says today he is extending the waning ceasefire for two weeks “ . . . because my errand boy asked me to.” Like Hell. A return to kinetic conflict would be a failure so preordained as to be beyond absurdity. There is jet fuel for maybe a week and a half of Usraeli air sorties; then, nada. Standoff missiles run out before then; totally. Cruise missiles in theater would be a few weeks fire, of which a third would be duds; then, nada. In reply, much of the oil infrastructure in Arabia would be leveled, gone for years, and American warships subjected to saturation attacks, able to do nothing but flee. So, the starting gun on Moar Wawr is pointed only at Rump’s own private rootstock. Perhaps wisely, he took his finger off the trigger.
At the same time, Rump and his subgeniuses can’t bring themselves to sign the articles of defeat on his woeful adventure. Rump’s leaky blockade of Iranian hydrocarbon export continues. Some 10 of 12 vessels sent by Iran appear to have passed through American blockade into international waters, though the arrival of a further carrier and Marine taskforce in the Arabian Sea might tighten that up. Pointlessly. The blockade has not seriously pressured Iran, and will not. Pressure on China, then? China has so far declined to pull Don’s nuts out of the fire for him. We can expect this state of affairs to continue through two weeks at least, until after the planned China-American summit. One wonders what China’s asks will be even to make nice with Rump come those days. We can expect throughout increasingly desperate fabulations from American sources—“The Venusians are on our side will deploy their forces imminently”—to manipulate the equally fictitious prices of international markets, as over these days just past.
In this chess game, Rump is a King in a corner, only able to null move back and forth between two squares while the national and global economies crumble. What’s his best move, then? Get on a train to Eysden and let someone else initial the surrender. Maybe, that’s what the Chinese will tell him in May.
Lufthansa trims summer schedule by 20,000 flights to cut fuel costs amid Iran conflict
Get ready for the summer of rage travel!
This was POLITICO from April 17th:
Diplomatic cables show Iran war is damaging US on multiple fronts across the world
The documents show the fallout for the US in Bahrain, Indonesia and Azerbaijan as it struggles to catch up with pro-Iran messaging.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/17/embassy-cables-detail-how-iran-war-is-hurting-the-us-abroad-00877205
So, it is inadequate pro-USA messaging causing a loss of trust in America’s global ambitions.
It’s gonna be hard to put lipstick on that turd.
Germany and Italy block bid to suspend EU-Israel trade pact
Mexico demands answers after CIA employees killed in car crash following drug lab raid: “We were not informed”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-us-officials-killed-car-crash-drug-lab-raid/
Israel announces a four day pride festival to be held at Dead Sea, the largest Pride Festival in
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-893319
I’ve not been commenting for a few days as the news has mostly been confusing or meaningless.
But here’s peak nonsense:
Iran doesn’t want the Strait of Hormuz closed, they want it open so they can make $500 Million Dollars a day (which is, therefore, what they are losing if it is closed!). They only say they want it closed because I have it totally BLOCKADED (CLOSED!), so they merely want to “save face.” People approached me four days ago, saying, “Sir, Iran wants to open up the Strait, immediately.” But if we do that, there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included! President DONALD J. TRUMP
There’s no point even analysing this.
Well, welcome back Ben Panga. I did notice your absence and previously read a bunch of your comments from all of the Iran War posts from Yves and their numerous comments. Let me analyze this anyway.
Is Trump even capable of writing a post on his phone? I know he can’t read, his attention span is minuscule, his years long usage of psychostimulants have resulted in an impairment in executive function. Do we even have evidence that Trump, given his cognitive decline, can sit down quietly with a phone and type a mostly grammatically correct and misspelling free message on anti-social media? Have there been reports that he sits around alone with his phone or laptop and actually types out a message? When is Trump ever alone? I would imagine his form of narcissism requires an entourage of sycophants. The unusual but consistent writing style with strange capitalization and parenthetical statements suggests he verbally narrates these posts in his typical rambling style and has an aide transcribe it for him. It is plausible the amphetamines have damaged his pre-frontal cortex and hippocampus, which would make the initial step of learning, memory, and long term potentiation difficult. I’m projecting my own biases on Trump, but does he even have the ability to learn how to use a phone or computer?