Following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian ship, Iran has announced they will not be sending a delegation to Islamabad for another meeting with American Vice-President J.D. Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff.
Tehran is not currently planning to take part in new talks with the US, Iran state media reported on Sunday evening, as its military accused America of violating a fragile ceasefire between the two countries, hours after Donald Trump said he was dispatching negotiators to Islamabad.
President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that an Iranian cargo ship that tried to get past the US-enforced blockade near the strait of Hormuz had been seized. “We have full custody of their ship, and are seeing what’s on board!” Trump wrote on social media.
Iran’s military said the ship had been travelling from China. “We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the US military,” state media quotes an Iranian military spokesperson as saying.
Via the Wall Street Journal, more leaks from inside the White House confirm the picture of a mad king, raging impotently and excluded from key briefings (archive):
It was Good Friday afternoon in a nearly empty West Wing soon after the president learned that an American jet had been shot down in Iran, with two airmen missing. Trump screamed at aides for hours. The Europeans aren’t helping, he said repeatedly. Gas prices averaged $4.09. Images of the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis—one of the biggest international policy failures of a presidency in recent times—had been looming large in his mind, people who have spoken to him said.
“If you look at what happened with Jimmy Carter…with the helicopters and the hostages, it cost them the election,” Trump had said in March. “What a mess.”
Trump demanded that the military go get them immediately. But the U.S. hadn’t been on the ground in Iran since the government overthrow that led to the hostage crisis, and they needed to figure out how to get into treacherous Iranian terrain and avoid Tehran’s own military. Aides kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful, instead updating him at meaningful moments, a senior administration official said.
Is that you, Susie Wiles?
But wait, there’s more:
He is veering between belligerent and conciliatory approaches and grappling behind the scenes with just how badly things could go wrong.
At the same time, the president sometimes loses focus, spending time on the details of his plans for the White House ballroom or on midterm fundraisers—and telling advisers he wants to shift to other topics.Trump has resisted sending American soldiers to take Kharg Island, for example, the launch point for 90% of Iran’s oil exports. While he was told the mission would succeed, and the territory’s capture would give the U.S. access to the strait, he worried there would be unacceptably high American casualties, the people said. They’ll be sitting ducks, the president said.
Still, he has made risky pronouncements without input from his national security team—including his post about plans to destroy the Iranian civilization—saying seeming unstable could help spur the Iranians to negotiate.
At one point he even mused he should award himself the nation’s highest military honor, the Medal of Honor.
Amazing how accurate Trump’s King Lear act is for a guy who claims he doesn’t read Shakespeare.
Although I can’t remember any Shakespearean tragedy that featured over $1 Billion in insider trading:
On 23 March, traders placed $580m in bets on the oil futures market just 15 minutes before Trump said on social media that the US was having “productive” talks with Iran, according to the Financial Times. The traders made a windfall after Trump’s comments triggered a sell-off in the oil markets that made oil prices plummet.
The same thing happened again on 7 April, this time when traders spent $950m on oil futures, betting that the price of oil would fall just hours before the ceasefire with Iran was announced.
But Mr. Market isn’t just dirty, he might be delusional as well.
This latest newsletter from Michael W. Green, described by Institutional Investor as having “some serious Street cred — he worked for Canyon Capital and tech billionaire Peter Thiel, and founded a fund seeded by George Soros” is pretty big evidence of cray cray:
“Iran” no longer exists as a unified political voice. The IRGC, the National Security Council, and the diplomatic class are arguing publicly:
“Following the unexpected tweet from the Foreign Minister about the liberation of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian society has been plunged into an atmosphere of confusion.”
…Now some in the media are, of course, seizing on the confusion to highlight that Trump is once again deeply out to a Taco Bell salad lunch. And I want to emphasize that there can be two truths — Trump can be deeply disturbed AND Iran’s leadership has fractured as the US prevails in the conflict. We have precedent. After victories in Italy, Germany, AND Japan in WW2, internal conflict prevented consolidated messaging. After Hitler’s suicide and contested elevation of Karl Dönitz, pockets of German and Czech military refused to accept the surrender.
The US Navy is fully in control of the Hormuz. Those carriers hanging outside missile range are no longer threatened.
His evidence for the above is a screen shot of what appears to be ChatGPT or Gemini output that helpfully cites The Atlantic Council as its source for claims that “As of April 2026, the US Navy maintains a major force in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf — led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford carrier strike groups.”
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 20, 2026
Don’t tell him that according to the US Naval Institute, the Gerald Ford is in the Red Sea and the Lincoln’s last reported whereabouts were in the Arabian Sea a few thousand kilometers away from the Strait, much less the Persian Gulf.
Contrary to the fantasies believed by many, there is no evidence that any US warships are venturing into the Gulf of Oman inside the red line shown below (Map 1).
The USS Fraidy Abe remains 800+ km away in the Arabian Sea (red circle on Map 2). pic.twitter.com/xrkaumAH6g
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) April 18, 2026
But wait he’s got more, this time about oil supplies:
The oil story collapsed under its own weight on Friday. Sure, Trump was the catalyst. But the reality that many are recognizing now has been well publicized on these pages — much of the oil was already making it out and demand destruction, particularly in emerging markets has been significant…
By my calculations, roughly 2MMbd in demand has already been destroyed. Had prices maintained at these levels, within six months we were looking at 10-20MMbd. Some of that lost demand will return as prices fall and we restock strategic reserves, but some will be permanently lost. We don’t run HVAC twice as much after skipping for a day, nor do we make two trips to the store to make up for the one we skipped last week. Combined with modestly increased production and (as predicted) removal of restrictions on Russian exports, oil will be increasingly well supplied. Meanwhile, the disruption is likely to prove unhelpful to a fuel likely already at peak demand.
So yea, wow.
He’s even more confident than the U.S. Secretary of Energy:
Chris Wright, the Trump administration’s energy secretary, acknowledged Sunday that it might not be until 2027 before US gas prices come back under $3 a gallon.
Asked by Jake Tapper, the CNN State of the Union host, when he thought “it’s realistic for Americans to expect the gas will go back to under $3 a gallon”, Wright replied: “I don’t know. That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year.”
Wright then maintained, without elaborating that “prices have likely peaked and they will start going down”. He said a conclusion to the war in Iran that the US started alongside Israel in late February would see energy prices “go down”.
‘What, me worry?’ may be the au courant catchphrase on Wall Street and D.C. but those worrywarts at the United Arab Emirates just haven’t gotten the memo, per the WSJ:
The United Arab Emirates has opened talks with the U.S. about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the oil-rich Persian Gulf state into a deeper crisis, U.S. officials said.
U.A.E. Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the idea of a currency-swap line with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials in meetings in Washington last week, the officials said. The Emiratis emphasized that they had so far avoided the worst economic effects of the conflict but might still need a financial lifeline…
In talks with the U.S. in recent days, they have portrayed the proposal as preliminary and precautionary, the U.S. officials said.
But they have also argued that it was President Trump’s decision to attack Iran that entangled their country in a destructive conflict whose effects may not be over, some of the officials said. Emirati officials told the U.S. officials that if the U.A.E runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions, some of the officials said.
Maybe we can take up a collection and gift the Emirates a subscription to Michael W. Green’s Substack to calm their shaky nerves.
Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Brad W. Setser has some thoughts:
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line —
the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians
— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) April 19, 2026
Given the central bank’s ample apparent liquidity, the immense assets of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign funds and the UAE/ Abu Dhabi’s clear ability to borrow dollars, I am not sure there is a realistic prospect that the UAE will ever run short of dollars
But the fact that they have asked is interesting — and they clearly think the threat of using yuan is a way to get the attention of the United States (my sense is that the Trump Administration is a bit too concerned about this … )
I rather doubt that the Fed would give the Emirates a swap line — they are keen to limit the use of Fed swaps to G-10 countries with long-standing ties to the Fed … and clearly don’t want to fund geopolitical risks or a shortfall in oil revenues
And the Treasury’s exchange stabilization fund has fewer resources than the UAE’s central bank (at the end of February) and certainly fewer resources than the central bank, ADIA and the other sovereign funds …
But the UAE might still want the symbolic vote of confidence
to my mind though there is a significant substantive issue with any swap line with the UAE — namely the UAE’s horrible balance of payments data and long history of limited transparency about its finances/ the size of its sovereign funds …
And there isn’t anything obviously “America first” about a financial lifeline to one of the richest oil sheikdoms (if not the richest) just so it doesn’t have to borrow in the market/ sell assets …
But very interesting that this request was both made and that it made its way into the WSJ …
Clear that parts of the UAE aren’t happy about being asked to absorb the full financial costs of Trump’s bombing campaign
UAE Poli Sci Professor Abdulkhaleq Abdulla has some thoughts:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 20, 2026
The UAE’s recent discussion of changes to its Chinese investment strategies may or may not be related, per Bloomberg:
Abu Dhabi is considering plans to consolidate Chinese assets housed within two of its wealth funds under a new entity, setting the stage for a radical overhaul of its investment strategy for the world’s second-largest economy.
The proposed investment vehicle will be jointly owned by the two wealth funds, L’imad Holding Co. and Mubadala Investment Co., according to people familiar with the matter. This would help avoid multiple Abu Dhabi vehicles competing for the same deals as the emirate looks to boost its exposure to China…
…
L’imad is overseen by Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed, a son of United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed who has taken on more prominent national security and economic roles over the past year. Mubadala is helmed by Khaldoon Al Mubarak, who has handled key relationships for Abu Dhabi, including China, for years.
Al Mubarak was among executives who accompanied the crown prince to China this week for meetings with President Xi Jinping.L’imad has exposure to China via sovereign investor ADQ, which it absorbed this year, while Mubadala has deployed over $20 billion across more than 100 investments in China since 2015. The two entities have close links — Al Mubarak and his deputy at Mubadala are both part of L’imad’s board.
The UAE isn’t the only Gulf state feeling the heat.
Qatar is looking anew at their strategic situation per the NYT:
Trapped between their chief ally and their neighbor, (the Gulf states) are now forced to rethink their security strategies.
The war has caused a state of “strategic shock” for Qatar and its neighbors, said Rashid Al-Mohanadi, the vice president of the Center for International Policy Research, a think tank in Qatar.
“There was an assumption that such a big move in the region, like starting a war with Iran, would at least happen in consultation with the Gulf,” he said. “We thought we had a better working relationship with the United States.”
…
In recent years, the government sought to cultivate close ties with President Trump, donating a Boeing 747 jetliner to him. A Qatari government-owned real estate firm sealed a deal last year with Mr. Trump’s family business, the Trump Organization, to construct a Trump-branded golf course in Qatar.And when Mr. Trump visited Qatar last May, he signed an agreement with officials there “to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion,” the White House announced.
Despite all of that, Qatar was able to exert little control over a war that directly involved it.
The uncomfortable realization that Israel appears to have more influence over Mr. Trump’s decisions than Gulf leaders do has reverberated through Gulf royal courts, analysts said.
Maybe they are following Trump on Truth Social:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 20, 2026
The Times also goes back to the well of lies for this sentence that I simply have to quote: “The war’s human toll in Qatar has been mitigated by air-defense systems that intercepted most attacks.”
Just like all those Russian missiles in Ukraine and every missile ever fired at Israel.
No wonder Mr Market is so deluded.
I’ll close today’s update with some war college talk from the Financial Times:
Hossein Dadvand is a greying commander who runs an important combat college north of Tehran. He is tasked with training the thousands of Iranian soldiers who pass through his barracks gates on how to fight — and win — on the battlefield.
In the lead-up to the weeks-long war with Israel and the US, Dadvand was among those within Iran’s military assiduously mining the war in Ukraine for strategic lessons.
…
His recommendations were published in a prestigious Iranian defence publication two years ago. Iran, he appealed to his superiors, must invest in drones, use nimbler and more mobile combat units, and update how it trains and fights.
…
Iran has closely studied Ukraine for lessons, especially about drones, has been focused on modernising its cyberwarfare assets, and is worried about its forces’ forward planning. They show Tehran has closely watched Russian performance as well as how Ukraine has adapted to fighting a much more powerful opponent.“The Russia-Ukraine war was one of the cases that we examined carefully,” Dadvand said. “One of the most important points in that war was the widespread use of small drones and artificial intelligence. We are witnessing the entry of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum, and nano into the military arena.”
Stay safe, y’all.
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Obviously Trump thought that this ceasefire was an Israeli-style ceasefire where the Iranians stop military operations and the US is free to attack, shell and seize an Iranian ship on the high seas. I have no doubt that this op was done through the White House. My guess is that the line of thought was that by proving how tough Trump was doing this, that this would force the Iranian negotiating position to buckle and give in to Trump’s demands. Instead the infuriated Iranians said stuff you, we aren’t going to Pakistan at all. In a strange twist, this will have no effect on the US negotiators as they spend the bulk majority of their time negotiating with themselves anyway.
“You cease, we fire”
They’ve got Legos, Iran knows how to use them
They never beg, knows how to choose them
They’re holding Legos wondering how to needle them
Would you get behind them if you could only find them?
They’re playing the USA for a baby, they’re my baby
Yeah, it’s alright
They’ve got beards down to their fanny
Donald’s kinda jet set, try undo his panties
Everytime Trump’s ranting Iran knows what to do
Everybody wants to see how they can use it
Sarcasm so fine, a mirth mine
Iran, you got it right
They’ve got Legos, Iran knows how to use them
They never beg, knows how to choose them
Donald drops a dime all of the time
Stays out at night marking end of empire time
Oh, I want more, shit, I got to have it
The gist is alright, its alright
Legs, by ZZ Top
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rM_nGN_du84&list=RDrM_nGN_du84
I realise the whole thing about the UAE running out of dollars is dubious, but I can’t see any logic whatsoever in “if the U.A.E runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales”. I’d have thought selling in dollars would get dollars for the UAE, while selling in yuan wouldn’t, at least not directly. Am I missing something?
I think you need to read this in conjunction with the citation from prof. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla. UAE is looking for an excuse to get rid of the Americans. They cost boatloads of money and don’t bring anything useful.
It makes no sense to me regardless of Abdulla’s comments. Why would the UAE need US dollars in order to sell oil?
Getting rid of the Americans once their nose is inside your tent is not so easy, whatever excuse you have (see Iraq and Okinawa, for instance). The most logical way to get rid of them would be to give Iran the exact coordinates for all American assets (including intelligence) in the UAE and pray that Iran will strike very precisely.
Foreign workers make up nearly 90% of the UAE population. If the UAE has a dollar shortage, the workers will too.
I suspect it would be perceived as a pay cut.
Surely selling oil in dollars would leave the UAE with more dollars. Yet, according to the WSJ, UAE officials are telling US officials a potential dollar shortage is one reason they might sell oil in other currencies. It’s the logic of that which I don’t get.
They already have a huge pile of dollars. That pile of dollars didn’t buy them the preferential treatment they were expecting. Selling in Yuan is one way to sharpen peoples attention.
They’d best be careful, that ploy didn’t work out so well for the last couple of guys that tried it.
But why would they tell US officials they might need to sell oil in yuan because they’re short of dollars? That bit makes no sense to me whether they’re short of dollars or not. Perhaps the idea is the US will know it’s illogical BS, and focus on the threat to stop using dollars. I still wonder, if that’s the case, what reason there is for the illogical BS.
Maybe they’re referring to ‘greenbacks’ (real dollars) Maybe the workers want greenbacks to send home. Or purchase cashier checks; no digital dollars for these folks.
How would selling oil in yuan get them more greenbacks?
” Selling in Yuan is one way to sharpen peoples attention.”
OK, then how does China react to having demand for the Yuan surge?
Because if China uses it to buy dollars, the net change to the system is nil.
And if China buys Euros, then the Europeans are going to go from their soon to be 7th circle of hell to a newly created 10 circle (which will likely lead to massive civil unrest–and not just the “lets protest with signs and slogans” type)
And if China does not convert it at all, then the RMB appreciates and further destroys whatever export capacity will remain over the next few months
I am actually increasingly of the view that Trump is going to cave (if he is even able to) after doing one more massively stupid and self-destructive thing over the next few days. He has no other options, and the few options he has are increasingly bleak.
I also increasingly find myself wondering if this is how it felt like living through the Cuban missile crisis.
Although a child at the time, I did get the impression from my parents that Kennedy’s serious but calm televised delivery gave people confidence: that he knew what was going on, understood the stakes, was being honest with the public, was in command of his faculties. I can’t magine the outcome if Trump had been in office instead.
Good point.
I wonder if this is how the Iranians feel when seeing/hearing their leaders?
This could be what Kushner/Witkoff are bringing to Islamabad:
Quote:
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Details of the latest U.S.-Iran draft proposal, according to Amit Segal & various other journalists:
– Iran commits to a 15-year enrichment suspension, with the exception of research reactors for medical isotopes.
– Iran’s stockpile of 60% and 20% enriched uranium would be partially converted to reactor fuel, and partially ‘downblended’ to a lower enrichment level. However, it won’t leave Iran.
– IAEA supervision on nuclear sites.
– Opening the Strait of Hormuz, with the possibility of collecting tolls.
– The U.S. will offer Iran phased sanctions relief.
– The U.S. will unfreeze all Iranian assets currently frozen abroad, amounting to $20 Billion or more.
– The U.S. will commit to a non-aggression pact with Iran that is ensured through a UN National Security Council resolution and a treaty ratified by Congress.
– The U.S. will withdraw all its military forces from the Persian Gulf.
NOTE: This is simply the proposal currently being discussed, neither side have yet agreed to it.
@Middle_East_Spectator, https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/31200
End Quote
Imagine US congress ratifying a treaty with Iran for non aggression!
If this is the US “going in” it is no more than an endless, leaky, blockaded ceasefire!
Forever war!
That list by Amit Segal & various other journalists sounds like a list of proposals that the Trump regime has already resoundingly rejected. Trump needs to come out of this war sounding like the winner and that list is tantamount to a Trump defeat. He’d never agree to it, even if he planned to renege on every point on that list.
The first three are Iran giving up sovereignty to penetrated IAEA!
The only line acceptable is the one about removing US military from the area, which has been achieved kinetically.
Yes, mostly Trump win list.
Bumper sticker on the rear echelon of a black SUV with darkened windows and bulletproof opinions within…
‘My kid got beat up by your honor student’
Where’s the win in spending tens of billion dollars, losing all the bases in the Persian Gulf, leaving Iran in de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz, handing back all of Iran’s frozen funds, and causing at least a global recession, perhaps worse, all in order to get a “deal” which wins no more than the suspension of uranium enrichment, something which was by all accounts already on the table in the negotiations that occurred before Trump decided to attack.
The “win” is in DJT’s head. Iran agreeing under apparent duress is itself a kind of subjective win, since DJT likes to dominate.
There is arguably an objective improvement on the original JCPoA, the enrichment provisions of which (per internet search, possibly corrupted by AI) originally were set to expire around 2031. A 15 year period of constrained enrichment would push that back a decade beyond the original date.
DJT could claim to have saved the world from an Iranian nuclear threat for another decade beyond what Obama’s treaty did.
Hallelujah, what a savior!
/s
Even if Trump got out of the Gulf tomorrow, his problems there would not be over. There is still the matter of the global recession that will also be hitting US shores just as the Midterms get into gear. He might do a Biden and keep on saying how great the economy is going but it did not work out for Biden nor will it for Trump. The good news is that as he has now gutted his Presidency, he may be able to cause less damage to the country as he will not have the power to bring in the changes that he wants.
Even the Senate looked wobbly before the war with the way things were going. DOGE, inflation, healthcare subsidies, and the lingering effects of the end of Covid funding were going to eat away at Trump’s support. This why the reports that Trump saw the Marduro kidnapping as a huge win make sense. He went shopping for a conflict to keep GOP support relatively high.
Then there is E word.
I worry they’ll be making a show of entering Havana next, and for the same reason. Grenada, too, was part of the pursuit for a badly needed “win.”
And they’ll take out their humiliation at home, on us, with a new wave of ‘America first’ palaver that will be pure fascism.
But he might have to. As I understand it, it was not Iran, but the US that wanted the ceasefire in the first place, and this could be tweaked slightly to make it sorta-kinda look at least like it is not a total defeat. It’s not as though everyone doesn’t already know that, bluster aside, starting this war was going to result in getting handed their asses by Iran.
To be treated with extreme caution as all such rumours are, but if this is true then it implies that adults may be having some influence in Washington at last. It’s not that the proposals will be acceptable, so much as that someone has realised that if you are trying to blame the other side for the failure of negotiations, it helps to put forward proposals that are, on the face of it, more reasonable than anything Washington has previously offered.
As to the contents, the IAEA stuff flows naturally from Iran’s membership of the NPT. Much of the rest of it is essentially promises, which are by their nature not enforceable except for the non-aggression pact, which would have to somehow get through Congress, and few believe that will happen.
This may all turn out to be fiction, or it may even be an Iranian wish-list, or something else entirely. But if it’s even partly true, it suggests that the US has begun timidly to recognise what it is going to have to do in order to get out of this crisis without unnecessary further damage. I have consistently said that I don’t think there will ever be a formal agreement, but, once more if this is even remotely accurate, it suggests that reality has begun to dawn in Washington about what they’ll have to do, probably unilaterally, to bring the crisis to an end.
But isn’t the problem here–including the war itself–that another war is going on between realism/American self interest versus what Israel wants?
Alastair Crooke follows the Israeli press and says the Israeli public are still gung ho for war and the destruction of Iran, occupation of part of Lebanon etc. Netanyahu was politically attacked for “allowing” the ceasefire at all.
Does “realism/American self interest” have a stable coherent expression?
The outsized group that drives US foreign policy is the “because we can” crowd. This group is heavily colonialist/orientalist when they are within US foreign policy establishments, but it also includes politicos who don’t pay much attention beyond CNN when the US blows things up and perceive a poll bump from a victory or worry their opponents will crow about a victory as they perceive only US generosity has kept the US from blowing up Ottawa.
I don’t think the “because we can” crowd has kept up and Trump is both particularly stupid and under a different kind of pressure then his approval rating being down. The PNAC concept of seven countries in seven years was based on the US having a time limit to knocking over these countries before Chinese or Russian (the other BRIICS) markets became viable alternatives.
In general, I think the White House is a mix of the dumber PNAC types (as bad as Kristol and Bolton are, they CAN read) and people who don’t know much beyond “that bomb explodes 67ty explosive kilograms per millisecond” and half-remembered stories from the first Gulf War. The latter group does know the Senate looks wobbly and “normie Democrats” don’t seem like they will be fine with Senators taking a break from impeachment proceedings for Valentine’s Day anymore.
The concept of blowback or accountability is something these people aren’t familiar with, and the idea a Muslim majority country could do this is just completely beyond their comprehension.
“…the Israeli public are still hung ho for war…”
It’s easy to be going ho for war when you don’t have skin in the game.
Adults or not, this is still a regime that wantonly, cravenly and maliciously murdered 165 schoolgirls on the first day of their depraved, perfidious attack on Iran. For the rest of the world, “remember Minab” is the slogan to bear in mind when dealing with the vicious hobgoblins who run America.
I’m not sure a non-aggression pact would be all that ‘enforceable’, even with the UN and Congress backing it. Iran could point to one as evidence of US perfidy if attacked, but what would stand in the way of a US president who wanted to ignore such a pact?
Yeah, the US has proved time and again it is not reliable, it is a rogue regime that is willing to commit some of the worst crimes in history. Congress is bribed not only by the Israel Lobby, but we have the convergent interests of MICIMATT, BigOil, BigFinance and BigTech all behind the US regime..
And when we speak of US national interests, who determines those “interests”?
What could Congress do anyway if a president attacked Iran? Huff and puff and point out it was unconstitutional and illegal?
Simple: no more $$
But Congress never met a war appropriations or DoD inflated budget they didn’t approve of. Make it 2 Trill next year, so this is also a moot point.
Despite the phony outrage from the loyal opposition, Congress is bribed to approve of more and more $$ MICIMATT
US is agreement incapable! Stop at that.
I seriously doubt that something akin to the Church Amendment (sequestered funds for propping Saigon) which stopped the US’ long Vietnam tragedy could pass nor be followed.
Neither side has the depth in magazine to go on too long. US needs to reserve some magazine to lose to China in the western Pac.
I am of the age, first day decapitation strike was linebacker I, second day killing school girls was linebacker II. US has no more line backers!
Let them punch themselves out.
Iran will be standing!
Vietnam scale capitulation, no matter how much it costs!
How long is it going to take for the US, and by extension, Israel, to rebuild their military capability to take on Iran with better results for Israel/USA, while meanwhile Iran is also strengthening its resilience?
If this deal is done, it’s baked in — regardless of second thoughts and perfidy. We are eyewitnesses to the irrevocable decline of the Empire.
“The U.S. will unfreeze all Iranian assets currently frozen abroad, amounting to $20 Billion or more.” That number struck me as low. I guess “or more” overs a lot of ground. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_frozen_assets
With the USA and Israel being agreement incapable, Iran would be wise to keep Hormuz closed to enemy ships until all Iranian assets abroad have been unfrozen and all sanctions have been completely lifted.
The supposed 10 point proposal doesn’t seem to mention Israel. If the proposal is for a separate peace between Iran and the USA, then it becomes interesting. Iran could then attack Israel decisively without USA interference.
Unfrozen and moved from $US.
All this before “talks”.
What I don’t know or understand about this conflict could fill buckets. And lists like this just highlight the information deficits.
From before the beginning of this war, I have not been able to figure out what exactly provoked this war. What was wanted that the Iranian regime could concede or grant?
What has the Iranian regime been seeking for 45 years, at home and abroad? What ambition or interests set it in opposition to its neighbors in the region? Any of that negotiable?
Early on (and going back decades) it sure looked to me like Israel wanted regime change in Iran — recently expressed in mass assassination, insurrections or street riots — and it didn’t happen. (Yet?)
I don’t know much about this Iranian regime that Israel (and Trump?) wanted to “change” or overthrow. How fragile or brittle is Iran? (Water shortages for the capital region are severe and close to critical — true?) Iranian state capacity would seem to be an issue.
The relationship between Iran and the GCC seems vaguely hostile — what is that about and is any of it negotiable? The Iranian relationships with Russia and China seem curiously arms-length — economic cooperation but not committed allies politically.
I see American Jews around the negotiations, but not Israel. Curious, that.
Because it looks to me like Israel has been fighting a long war and a multi-front war: Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Somaliland as well as the horrorshow in Gaza. I don’t see any of that being “negotiated.”
The U.S. “Deep State” has long been playing games in northern Iraq (Kurdistan) and Syria and Lebanon, variously allied with opposing forces in chaotic, multi-sided fights, occupying secret bases, financing the Army of Lebanon, supporting NATO ally Türkiye, appeasing frenemy, Saudi MBS. As far as I know, Jordan and Egypt are propped up financially by the U.S. and Gulf states on some Israeli-friendly conditions. Any of that negotiable?
The cover story has always been the receding mirage of an Iranian nuclear weapon, turning on uranium enrichment capacity and the boot of U.S. financial sanctions on the Iranian regime’s neck, justified by the nuclear issue. Now, extended to Hormuz, with both Iran and the U.S. competing to choke off a flow of resources and money that neither would seem to have even a medium-term interest in arresting.
It has been said that at the core of this war is one thing – oil. The US wants to take over and control Iran’s oil and Trump himself has said several times that he wants their oil. Everything else is mostly window dressing.
Maybe. It leads to one chain of hypotheses, and it may align at times with Trump’s own personal level of understanding.
I am suggesting that the Iran War has been part (culmination?) of a Netanyahoo project and part of a mysterious Deep State project for a very long time and oil and gas and dollar flows were never more than a means of leverage.
It is passing strange that the U.S. and Iran should be negotiating over Hormuz when both want the strait open and Israel, the principal belligerent aggressor, is not at the table.
My sketchy understanding is that oil is traded on a world market. There are so many different types/grades etc of oil from so many different places that just grabbing one country’s oil patch wouldn’t give the U.S. much leverage.
And if everything is about oil, the U.S. would never have supported Israel, which doesn’t have any and complicates our relationships with most of the places that do. As far as I can tell Israel does nothing for the U.S. strategically. The most plausible explanation is U.S. domestic politics — enough Israel-no-matter-what voters to swing Presidential and Congressional elections.
Or, like Medhurst outlines, the US wants to control the global flow of energy. This sort of thing is not new, Kissinger articulated this half a century ago. The US does not have to directly possess the oil/gas etc. if it can control the transport and distribution nodes and choke points. (like Hormuz, Malacca etc.)
Short and long:
US covets Iranian resources, and its geography (Mackinder).
US’ tools in west Asia in order: Israel, Jordan (a lot of black activity), Turkey, GCC.
GCC is a well-positioned liability, and US ignored bunkers for its troops!
GCC does invest petrodollars on radars and such to be bombed.
US uses Israeli atrocities and ISIS heacchoppers in Syria to aggravate Iran!
Pull the other one! In the US is non-agreement-capable, remember?
Formalizing Iran’s role as a toll collector seems like a good and obvious provision that will almost certainly wind up in the eventual conclusion of the war. There’s little the US can do to prevent it in any case, and it may blunt Iran’s demands for postwar reparations from the US.
Remarkable to hear the US going along with this, which as I recall was one of Iran’s original demands, which was initially considered ridiculous by the Western media.
Possibly the destruction of most of the bases around the Persian Gulf during this war has made this a de facto situation anyway. We can imagine the difficulty of rebuilding huge military bases under the eyes of Iranian missile commanders a few dozen miles away.
Perhaps the US has also realized that the Persian Gulf, as a military seaway, is no longer useful since anyone who ventures into it is a sitting duck, and that resupplying US naval bases by water in the Persian Gulf is not going to happen from now on.
It is another instance of the US’s almost 100% record of retreat from the Middle East in this century. Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, the Red Sea, and now perhaps the entire Persian Gulf region. Anyone in the George HW Bush White House who predicted this future for the US would have been tarred and feathered.
General atomics research reactors use 20% enriched uranium. I think maybe 20 were sold around the world, including one to Iran… but though iran paid for it, it was never delivered because the Iranian revolution intervened, after which us gov I think forbade it.
They probably have the design and may have built something like the GA unit, and that may use the 20% enriched U to make medical isotopes and to do research. I doubt they’d give that up, med isotopes decay so quickly they need to be made locally, but imo there’s no need for 60% (other than as bomb precursor) and might accept blending to 20% or 4-5% (power reactors).
No mention of Israel, Lebanon, Syria or Yemen? So it looks like this is “you stop fighting Israel and Israel gets to continue genociding all the Muslims and Christians on its current territory and anywhere nearby that it desires to occupy”. And will probably be allowed to keep assassinating Iranian scientists and stirring up color revolutions without any recourse for Iran to strike back. And “phased sanctions relief” = “when heck freezes over”. And Congress can be manipulated by Israeli bribes and blackmail into voting down any US non-aggression treaty with Iran once Israel has been massively rearmed. Plus, the biggest brontosaurus in the room is that “America is not agreement-capable”, or, in other words, the US lies and reneges on promises it makes on such a regular basis that ceasefires and non-aggression pacts are senseless.
Nat, thank you for these updates, I can’t express how much I appreciate them.
I wanted to add a footnote regarding Michael Green, who you cite extensively above. I’ve been following him for awhile and what’s interesting about him is that he’s not nearly as out to lunch as your typical Wall Street fund manager type–he’s written about the dynamics of extreme inequality in the U.S. and the need for intervention, about the pitfalls of changing market structures due to large-scale passive investment, etc. But when it comes to the U.S. military and U.S. imperialism he is absolutely incapable of applying any of his critical thinking skills. While he’s quoted above as an example of the investor class, I’d consider him as one of the more “thoughtful” types in that group, so the fact that he cannot see or acknowedge the reality is an even more worrisome demonstration than usual of how far Wall Street is gone down the rabbit hole. I also know from previous commentary he’s done that his son is in the U.S. Navy and that may explain why he can’t bring himself to acknowledge how bad things are–though a more careful person might take that as an opportunity to use his platform to instead become an anti-war advocate rather than to put on rose-colored glasses. It’s shocking to me that failing military capabilities of the U.S. and loss of any last remnants of international trust/support are not more of a concern for financial types, but indeed we live in interesting times…
He doesn’t seem to have a Wiki or even much public info
https://tradersunion.com/persons/michael-green/
but skirting the edges of stereotype pro Israel feelings may be part of his and the investing world’s rose colored glasses. Does this account for the FP blind spot that you describe?
He’s part of the team at Simplify Asset Management.
He’s been posting critiques of passive investing for some time, but gotten a broader reach recently with his thoughts on extreme inequality being amplified by Mark Blythe of Brown University. He created something of a minor firestorm with a post suggesting the poverty line in Northeastern NJ should actually be $100k.
Plenty of interviews on YouTube with him, and he’s has Stoller on his podcast as well.
I almost subscribed just to see if his followers were buying the tripe he’s selling there. It reads like his sources of info are limited to a Bloomberg terminal, CNBC, FoxNews, and whatever someone tells him at lunch. I imagine he’s better at making rich people richer than at trying to set aside received ideas and his ego while analyzing complex geopolitical matters. That bullet list is a telltale sign of a Chatgpt summary.
I thought his deep dive into the struggles of the American worker and family were pretty solid, and then I saw his reaction to the Maduro kidnapping and the move to further dominate the hemisphere and stopped following him.
Green is like a bad penny, it seems.
I was going to comment on his blog post linked to here last fall, but I either didn’t post my comment because it was too angry, or the comment didn’t make it past moderation. I forget.
His version of the Niemoeller poem would be something like:
Then they came for the PMCs
And I said
“Could’ja NOT???”
It’s not surprising that he has this take on the war.
I should have elaborated on Green a bit more and I’m glad to see others have chimed in. Based on the appearances I’ve seen from him with Mark Blythe and Matt Stoller he’s several cuts above the usual finance bro on financial topics (esp inequality and passive/index fund investing) but he clearly gets his war info from the worst possible sources and thereby comes off as delusional to us here at NC.
‘On April 8 Israel bombed what is known as the China-Iran Railway, a key component of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.’
Best I can tell it was quickly repaired, though sources vary wildly based on political orientation.
‘The War With Iran. It’s about trade, not nukes. The Strait of Hormuz is drop-dead essential to the success of Trumps India-Middle-East-Europe-Economic-Corridore (IMEC), and he is willing to risk all-out nuclear war with Iran to get control of it.’ (Patrick Wood. ‘Technology. News And Trends)…
The IMEC: It’s success depends on the neutering / break-up of Iran. Turkey is not included in the scheme, which maybe why Israel is starting to openly express belligerence towards Turkey: Turkey, too, may impede IMEC’s successful implementation…
Never let anything come between (certain people) and making oodles of more money… Old Proverb.
Quantum and nano?
Conceivably “quantum and nano” refers to the generic class of “advanced materials”, which can involve the nanoscale arrangement of atoms and consequent quantum behaviors that confer useful bulk material properties (things like high-temperature superconductivity, for example).
A possibility for “nano” that one would prefer to not contemplate is “biological”.
just tiny stuff, man. Real tiny.
“Advanced technologies” — you can’t know where they are or where they’re going (quantum) and they’re so small they won’t make a difference (nano).
Since the quote leads with AI, I’d guess quantum computing. Nano probably refers to nanotechnology which includes advanced materials like carbon nanotubes and nanoparticles to really tiny machines. The tiny machines is are even smaller MEMS (micro-electromechanical systems), which enable small and cheap sensors like those used in drones, or even the tiny cell-sized drones of science fiction.
Nanoscale substrates are being touted as the replacement for semiconductors now that the limits of Moore’s Law are being reached. The big question is whether quantum computing can be achieved without photonics. Will binary go the way of the dodo ? Whither solid light ?
Until then the Chinese are starting a big open-source push on RiscV, trying to be what Microsoft was in the 90’s and before, open to all.
Less Lear than Ubu, IMO. As an amusement, look at this Wikipedia entry and substitute “Trump” for “Ubu.” Audiences get a mention too. The lit critic Jane Taylor might be addressing the demagoguery of the MAGA moment:
Escalate or keep Hormuz closed and that “all cost” may become more than an idiom.
Long live Pere Ubu! Ubu Roi!
Approved by Donald “Dada” Trump. And, is it Ubu Roi Cohn? Only his hairdresser knows for sure.
Ah, Kush it!
Ah, Kush it!
Ooh baby baby, baby baby
Ooh baby baby, mo’ money baby
(Hit up on this)
Ah, Kush it!
Ah, Kush it!
Ah, Kush it!
(Hit up on this)
Steve and Jared here!
Steve and Jared here!
Steve and Jared here, and we’re in effect
Want you to Kush it back
Droolin’ by day then at night
Griftin’ up a sweat
C’mon girls, let’s go, show the goys that we know
How to grease the skids for number one in a hot party show
Now Kush it
Kush it good
Kush it
Kush it real good
Ooh baby baby, baby baby
Ooh baby baby, real estate deals, baby
Kush it good
Kush it real good
[Break]
Yo, yo, yo, yo baby pops – yeah you
Come on here and give Bibi’s ring a kiss
Better make it fast, or Jared’s gonna get pissed
Now don’t you see the market pumpin’ hard
Like I wish you would
So come on, Kush it
Kush it good
Ah, Kush it
Kush it real good
Kush it good
Kush it real good
Hit up on this
Goy, you really got me going
You got me so, I don’t know what I’m doing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCadcBR95oU&list=RDvCadcBR95oU
I know that the guy is already 45 years old but whenever you see him in an image or a video, he always looks like a grown up boy wearing his first suit. When in negotiations with the Russians or the Iranians, I am sure that they are thinking just who is this guy and is his only qualification that of being the son-in-law of Trump. He certainly his more than his share of controversies-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Kushner#Controversies
The guy is a walking conflict of interest. We’d be better off if we sent the ladies from Salt-N-Pepa who wrote that tune to negotiate with the Iranians.
Alas, it’s too late to send Diamond and Silk. RIP Diamond.
Sounds like a job for Sapphire and Steel.
I think he is easily recognized by peers in diplomatic settings as a plutocrat grifter who is transparently positioning for the looting of empires. His pedigree is immaculate: his father did time for fraud and recently caused a diplomatic incident with France because he truly believes he is above diplomacy. His wife is the daughter of the bible quoting POTUS and converted to Judaism before her marriage, cementing the extended family partnership for Zionism. His training wheels will be Gaza and the next stop will be the moon and/or the stars. The universe is not large enough. Glad we have him on the team
Yes. But can he bullfight?
A TV Asahi commentator states the obvious:
https://nitter.poast.org/Parodyjeffx/status/2044220620259414181
He then got a lot of heat for his comments in Japan, prompting the network to issue an apology:
In our April 10 broadcast on U.S.–Iran talks, a comment made by one of our commentators was misleading and perceived as discriminatory. We sincerely apologize to everyone who may have felt uncomfortable or offended.
The remark was made as part of a question to an expert regarding Mr. Jared Kushner, and was not intended to be discriminatory. However, regardless of intent, the explanation was insufficient and the wording lacked appropriate care.
We firmly believe that individuals should never be judged based on attributes such as religion, ethnicity, or background. We will continue to produce our programs with care to ensure that we do not promote hatred, prejudice, or discrimination.
https://www.tv-asahi.co.jp/m-show/info/0022/index.html
I think, to be fair, the Asahi commentator just verbalized exactly the confusion of the sort Zionists have been sowing: inability to distinguish among “Jews,” “Zionists,” and “Israelis.” The Japanese don’t have much contact with any of the three, so the three naturally blend together. It could turn out very badly for non Zionist Jews all over yhe world.
Alastair Crooke: Markets prematurely may celebrate, but the next phase likely will be more, bigger war
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/04/20/markets-prematurely-may-celebrate-but-the-next-phase-likely-will-be-more-bigger-war/
I forgot to add this to the comment before the editing window closed but some people may have issues reading the article on Strategic Culture, the (paywalled) substack version on Conflicts Forum can be found at https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/markets-prematurely-may-celebrate
China’s Xi, in call with Saudi crown prince, calls for Strait of Hormuz to remain open
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/chinas-xi-call-saudi-crown-120213699.html
How Iran Funds Missiles Under Sanctions: The Hidden Aghazadeh Network
https://irannewswire.org/iran-funds-missiles-aghazadeh-network-sanctions/
Israel entrenches hold on south Lebanon, warns residents to stay out
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-entrenches-hold-south-lebanon-warns-residents-stay-out-2026-04-20/
Iran calls it “armed piracy” after U.S. Navy fired on and seized Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman after crew ignored warnings for 6 hours
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/19/trump-says-us-seized-iran-flagged-ship-trying-to-get-past-hormuz-blockade
China voices concern over US seizure of Iranian cargo ship & urges further talks
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-voices-concern-over-us-seizure-iranian-cargo-ship-urges-further-talks-2026-04-20/
Iran hangs two more political prisoners ahead of negotiations with the US | “Authorities claimed that two suspects had traveled to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to receive training from Mossad operatives”
https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/20042026-amp
Netanyahu announced the continuation of Israel’s and the US’s fight against Iran
https://unn.ua/en/news/netanyahu-announced-the-continuation-of-israels-and-the-uss-fight-against-iran
Oil prices jump after Iran and U.S. attack commercial ships as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/19/oil-price-iran-war-strait-hormuz-tanker.html
Tehran will never cede control of Strait of Hormuz, senior Iranian politician tells BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c239500dx8ro
UAE official: More than 90% of Iran’s targets were civilian infrastructure – POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/19/united-arab-emirates-iran-civilian-infrastructure-00880064
I bet IRan news is based in london – they cite sky news –
Pure garbage for consumption by MSM zombies
– Russia and China do not recognize the “snapback” sanctions, so there is no need for complicated and inefficient sanctions avoiding tactics.
The US is a passenger in a bus on Intractable Way…. Iran and Israel at the wheel.
Perpetual war, distrust… what could possibly go right?
Unless one is into the MIC, or “markets” and ‘investments”, it sure seems like a losing prospect for humanity, other species, and spaceship earth.
It’s more like Iran is at the wheel but whenever the bus approaches a steep cliff or dangerous section of the road, Israel leaps forward and tries to pull at the steering wheel. Meanwhile Trump is standing behind saying how he is doing so much winning.
Some people say Trump’s a no-‘count
Others say he’s no good
But I’m just a natural-born Emirates man
Doin’ what I think I should, oh yeah
Doin’ what I think I should
And I don’t give a damn about a greenback Dollar
Can take Yuan fast as I can
For a oil sellin’ song and a good hegemon
The only things that I understand, poor boy
The only things that I understand
When the UAE was a little baby
My mama said, my son,
Travel where you will and grow to be a man
And sing what must be sung, poor boy
Sing what must be sung
And I don’t give a damn about a greenback Dollar
Can take Yuan fast as I can
For a oil sellin’ song and a good hegemon
The only things that I understand, poor boy
The only things that I understand
Now that I’m a grown man
I’ve traveled here and there
I’ve learned that its really the Chinese
The only ones who ever care, poor boy
The only ones who ever care
And I don’t give a damn about a greenback Dollar
Can take Yuan fast as I can
For a oil sellin’ song and a good hegemon
The only things that I understand, poor boy
The only things that I understand
Some people say Trump is a no-‘count
Others say he’s no good
But I’m just a natural-born oil sellin’ man
Doin’ what I think I should, oh yeah
Doin’ what I think I should
And I don’t give a damn about a greenback Dollar
Can take Yuan fast as I can
For a oil sellin’ song and a good hegemon
The only things that I understand, poor boy
The only things that I understand
The only things that I understand, poor boy
The only things that I understand
Greenback Dollar, by the Kingston Trio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvGxZD-HNCM&list=RDYvGxZD-HNCM
Impeach The President, by The Honey Drippers (1973)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVycUX1y0XE
A true Funk classic.
Hell yeah, monster bass line, tight rhythm guitar…
And here’s one from years ago, that still fits. Arrest the President!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9LOKM1r5yE&list=RDo9LOKM1r5yE&start_radio=1
And another
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9oUnC8JtXY&list=RDy9oUnC8JtXY&start_radio=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NuVB8aX6z8&list=RD-NuVB8aX6z8&start_radio=1
Here Comes President Kill Again – XTC (1989)
Iran may join peace talks after Pakistan works to end US blockade, Iran source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/world-weighs-fate-mideast-ceasefire-after-us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-2026-04-20/
This conflict might make me finally go solar. Hadn’t considered it seriously before but seems like high time. Of course the subsidies are gone now too, nice timing that.
This whole war thing, with the cutting off of the Straight and reduction in supply, and the attendant harm that will cause the economy (especially in Asian countries) has caused me to realize that the Renewable Energy Industrial Complex, as it were, is necessary, not as a replacement for fossil-derived energy, but as a supplement to it, because growth of the economy is entirely dependent upon the supply of all forms of energy.
To put it another way, we can’t extract O&G from the ground fast enough to satisfy growing worldwide demand, especially in light of the energy needed by the AI industry. Hence, we need countries and consumers to increase use of renewable energy and devices that use sources other than oil (e.g., EVs, etc.) NOT in order to reduce the overall use of fossil fuels but so that those fossil fuels can be allocated elsewhere.
To put it another way again, if I replace all of my ICE cars with EVs, I’m not saving the planet: they are not going to extract less oil because I am using less gas than before. Instead, that those roughly thousand gallons of gasoline per year that I consume can and will be consumed somewhere else in the world, and this is necessary for the growth of the worldwide economy (i.e., so that “line go up.”)
Data centers will take up the slack.
Electric car sales soar 51% in mainland Europe as Iran war drives up fuel prices – Guardian
Data shows that 224,000 new electric vehicles (EVs) were registered in March, and 500,000 across the first three months of the year – a 33.5% increase on a year earlier, according to analysis of national sales data in 15 countries by New AutoMotive and E-Mobility Europe, a trade body.
As Nat says: “No wonder Mr Market is so deluded.”
As Andrei Martyanov likes to say: “they are high on their own supply”. (Scarface)
Meaning the US mass media, politicians, and “rational” Mr. Market believe in their own propaganda. (aka false narratives, pack of lies etc.)
However, material conditions will come crashing down hard in the near future. To use the cocaine kingpin Scarface analogy again, Tony Montana in the final scene puts his face in a giant pile of cocaine and is able to continue the farce for a bit more until…
Analogies aside, is Mr. Market jacked up on cocaine? How many traders and investors are high? Tabloid minds want to know
US economy is fully bifurcated now. Top 10% is responsible for 50% of consumer spending, for comparison, the next 10% (10-20%) is responsible for 13%. So the stock market doesn’t depend on the real economy anymore, it’s anchored to the top of the income scale which is and has been doing really well.
Funny, but when I read “So the stock market doesn’t depend on the real economy anymore,” I read it as ‘So the shock market doesn’t depend on the real economy anymore…’ So tell me, is that what you really intended to write? (Kidding, of course. Nothing is real anymore, the nothing that you see, and the nothing that is.)
A good many market players are hooked on Adderall, and it all adds up.
I remember Randy Credico and others saying that Orange Judas used to snort crushed Adderall (amphetamine) and likely still does. That would explain some of his wacky behavior of talking constantly and not sleeping. The drug use may well have expedited his dementia and cognitive decline
Perv’itin
You should have put a “put down your coffee” alert on that! LOL!
“People who are addicted to cocaine are particularly prone to developing habits that render their behaviour resistant to change, regardless of the potentially devastating consequences, suggests new research from the University of Cambridge.
…
In a study reported today in the journal Science, Dr Ersche and colleagues tested 125 participants, of whom 72 were addicted to cocaine and 53 had no history of drug addiction, on their inclination to develop habits. They found that people with cocaine addiction were much more likely than healthy participants to make responses in an automatic fashion, but only if they had previously been rewarded for responding in the same way. The addicted individuals simply continued repeating the same responses they had previously learned, regardless of whether their actions made sense or not.”
https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/carrots-and-sticks-fail-to-change-behaviour-in-cocaine-addiction (2016)
Thanks for that, the findings are consistent with what we see now.
And in general, cocaine use has increased in the US
according to this
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/addiction-outlook/202510/cocaine-is-back
Well, addicts are by definition people who have developed at least 1 such habit, so the study basically confirms that an addictive personality is an addictive personality. Which was already known. After all, “making the same mistakes, expecting different results” was already in the 1st edition of the Big Book.
Just curious, does anyone know what is the us Navy going to do with its newly diabled cago ship? And has the NAVY gamed a scenario where one of its vessels is similarily diabled in those waters?
That ship is going to be a hot potato no country in the region will want to tow to port. Except Iran, maybe Oman.
Sal Mercogliano has a good report on the taking of the Touska. He points out that there are no tugs in the region to move it, and unloading it to search the containers will require big commercial port cranes, which Mercogliano says do not exist at Diego Garcia.
Trump asserted that the ship operated illegally, because if it were otherwise, this was an act of piracy. One account claimed the vessel had a history of fraudulent transfer, but my searches did not find any information on that. Some accounts claim the Touska can be considered a spoil of war, but without a declaration of war, no formal state of war exists, and absent that, it sure looks like piracy. And it sure looks impulsive.
From the Halls of Montezuma
To the shores of Tripoli
dot dot dot
If there are no tugs to move it and the US government does not know what to do with it, then I expect that they will just sail away and let other countries deal with helping that ship. Ports will be loath to accept it though as the US will still demand the right to be there as the containers are unloaded and inspected making that country a party to this US action. Since it was returning to Iran from China, perhaps Trump is hoping that it will contain Chinese military equipment to give him some sort of ‘leverage’ with the Chinese.
Pirates and privateers (letters of Marque) had “prize ports” to take the prizes and the port had “fences”.
Trump is working that one!
In this case the cargo is likely from PRC…..
Pirates and privateers also generally did not disable their prize’s propulsion as the first order of business.
Either the US Navy has absolutely no idea how to pirate properly, with the admirals in charge only now discovering, to their great surprise, that a prize crew has nothing to do if the engine is shot to pieces by 127mm cannon rounds; or “someone” on high had given the order to fire some shots at the first suitable target to show those pesky Iranians that “we mean business”, and now the USN is in the dog-caught-bus position.
Regardless, there is also a good possibility the thing is empty or half-empty – from the USN video, there seemed to be far fewer containers onboard than one would expect with a full load, and in any case it was heading out of the Straight towards China (so the relatively empty hold would make sense).
From Wikipedia, it was heading to Iran:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_seizure_of_the_Touska
cargo is likely from PRC
lol, I hope it’s all LEGO sets.
Another aspect is that Iran has stockpiled oil outside the strait, so it can still supply the market and have an income for a few months. Trump duly announced that all Iranian vessels, or ships with Iranian goods on them, will be subject to US piracy no matter where they are. Will the US enter the territorial waters of other nations to seize prizes? Things could get even more interesting.
Noticed a $2.50 spread between 87 octane gas and diesel @ a big Loves station in Tehachapi yesterday, with the latter @ $7.88.
The average price in Cali for diesel was $4.94 on February 26th.
When does inflation from the rise in diesel prices hit us?
I mean, literally like no one knows
Tehran says ‘no plans’ for new talks after US seizes Iranian cargo ship (BBC; been up all morning/last night)
Iran War Live Updates: Tehran and Washington Plan New Talks in Pakistan (NY Times; just updated)
And CNBC
So, uhm, yeah.
“President Donald Trump on Monday again threatened Iran with overwhelming military force, saying “lots of bombs [will] start going off” if no deal is reached before a shaky ceasefire with Tehran expires Tuesday evening.”
I know it will never happen, but it would be really enlightening if any reporter follows up with a questions along the lines of “And then what?”
Because even as a 6 year old playing checkers, I at least thought past the first move.
But did you think of banging the board with your fist and sending all the pieces flying when it looked like you were losing?
The forecast for tomorrow is hot. Possibly cold. Chance of showers or not.
So far we have Trump telling Maria Bartoromo an agreement will be signed in Pakistan today, CNN saying the US delegation won’t arrive until tomorrow, TASNIM saying Iran suspects the talks may be cover for a surprise attack and negotations under these conditions would be a waste of time at best, and this exchange with PBS:
PBS Reporter: ‘Will Iran attend the talks in Islamabad?’
President Trump: ‘I don’t know, but they are supposed to be there’
Reporter: ‘What if they don’t?’
President Trump: ‘That’s fine too. If they do that’ll be great, and if they don’t it’ll be great’
which maybe makes a bit of sense if he thinks he’s imposing new leadership on the country as per this a couple of hours ago
but then I should know better than to try to find sense in any of this.
You’re confused? So is Iran, according to Trump!
I’m winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well, our Military has been amazing and, if you read the Fake News, like The Failing New York Times, the absolutely horrendous and disgusting Wall Street Journal, or the now almost defunct, fortunately, Washington Post, you would actually think we are losing the War. The enemy is confused, because they get these same Media “reports,” and yet they realize their Navy has been completely wiped out, their Air Force has gone onto darker runways, they have no Anti Missile or Anti Airplane Equipment, their former leaders are mostly gone (This has been, in addition to everything else, Regime Change!), and perhaps, most important of all, THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a “DEAL,” is absolutely destroying Iran. They are losing $500 Million Dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run. The Anti-America Fake News Media is rooting for Iran to win, but it’s not going to happen, because I’m in charge! Just like these unpatriotic people used every ounce of their limited strength to fight me in the Election, they continue to do so with Iran. The result will be the same — It already is! President DONALD J. TRUMP
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116438381520104888
Trouble with you is the trouble with me
Got two good eyes but we still don’t see.
Come round the bend, you know it’s the end
The fireman screams and the engine just gleams.
Riding that train, high on cocaine….
Trouble ahead? Trouble behind? Fake news commie democrat unpatriotic loser media propaganda!
I wonder if there is significance to the air quotes around “DEAL”.
Probably a fool’s errand to try to discern any significance to any of this, other than that DJT is NOT HAPPY with the current state of things.
Alternatively, he actually does think he’s “winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well.”
In the companion post the deal is real and it’s Trump that isn’t….
Only a few years to go?
The Democrats are doing everything possible to hurt the very strong position we are in with respect to Iran. Despite World War I lasting 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days, World War II lasting 6 years and 1 day, the Korean War lasting 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days, the Vietnam War lasting 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and Iraq lasting 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days, they like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran, and actually, from the Military standpoint, it was far faster than that, but I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been. I read the Fake News saying that I am under “pressure” to make a Deal. THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly! Time is not my adversary, the only thing that matters is that we finally, after 47 years, straighten out the MESS that other Presidents let happen because they didn’t have the Courage or Foresight to do what had to be done with respect to Iran. We’re in it, and it will be done RIGHT, and we won’t let the Weak and Pathetic Democrats, TRAITORS ALL, who for years have been talking about the Dangers of Iran, and that something has to be done, but now, since I’m the one doing it, belittle the accomplishments of our Military and the Trump Administration. This is being perfectly executed, on the scale of Venezuela, just a bigger, more complex operation. The result will be the same. In my First Term, I built the Greatest Military our Country has ever seen, including adding Space Force. In my Second Term, I am properly and judiciously using our Military to solve problems left to us by others of far less understanding or competence. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116438260195246849
If the PTB really wanted to get rid of him they’d put the Clintons on it.
Saw reports USs ford went around Africa/ passing Namibia to avoid Houthis. USNI news, 4/13.
If so, should be at station now? If so, maybe re-start war Friday after market closes?
Maybe enough off/def missiles left to go 2-3 weeks, declare victory/go home mid April?
Might see a lot of damage to gulf/israel infra.
Why does this remind me of the Baltic Fleet in 1905? They took the same route, after all… (and both were troubled well before their voyages, complete with mutinous, or at least, badly disspirited, crews.)
The UK government is considering ending Palantir’s involvement in a central NHS data platform after coming under fire from MPs, unions, and campaigners
https://www.theregister.com/2026/04/20/palantir_nhs_break_clause/
Trump’s Desperate Scramble to Win Back Joe Rogan Exposed
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-desperate-scramble-to-win-back-joe-rogan-exposed/
India expands Russian marine insurance options
https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/india-expands-russian-marine-insurance-options-2026-04-20/
Russia Sells 22 Tons of Gold to Curb Growing Federal Budget Deficit
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-sells-22-tons-of-gold-to-curb-growing-federal-budget-deficit-18083
Maduro Is Gone, and the Purge Has Begun
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/world/americas/delcy-rodriguez-maduro-allies-venezuela.html
US and Mexican officials assigned to cartel case killed in car accident
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/20/mexico-car-accident-drug-officials-killed
Trump Pardoned a Nursing Home Owner Who Owed Almost $19 Million to a Grieving Family
https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-joseph-schwartz-pardon-lawsuit
Pact allowing India, Russia to station 3,000 troops, 5 warships, 10 aircraft in each other’s territory operational: Report
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/defence/pact-allowing-india-russia-to-station-3000-troops-5-warships-10-aircraft-in-each-others-territory-operational-report/articleshow/130361423.cms
Don’t mean to sound ungratrful for your hard work, but isn’t United 24 Media a Ukrainian propaganda outlet launched in 2022? I was noticing that their stories were a bit odd, then remembered how they came to existence originally.
Operation Iraqi Freedom
The United States has reportedly suspended all funding and security coordination with the Iraqi government and has halted dollar shipments to Iraq’s central banking system, according to Saudi channel Al-Hadath.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/182470#
Curious. Bremmer’s Billions didn’t go too far after all.
Searching for dollars:
Uh-huh – from 800 km away. Why do US propagandists assume people are so stoopid?
https://www.marineinsight.com/u-s-navy-sends-robot-systems-to-clear-iranian-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz/
“The Navy also launched many manned and unmanned programs to remove the mines blocking the strait in the past few days.”
Suicide debombers?
Shore launch of the AQS-20/RMMV from UAE to locate, then send in Lloyd Bridges?
Has anybody seen a reasonably well thought out analysis as to what happens if Russia next week simply decides that it will not sell oil to the West unless the West lifts all sanctions and gives it back all of its frozen assets (or some other set of unpalatable demands)?
Just to be clear, I don’t believe this will happen–I am curious to know if anybody has run the analysis as to how this would play out, partly to see if it aligns with my predictions
That would certainly drive up the price of crude oil globally. Perhaps wrecking Orange Julius’ precious market rally.
I find it odd that Russia doesn’t try something like this. Maybe the economic windfall from becoming the world’s swing producer is too great to give up.
It hasn’t worked relative to the G7 for the Russian Federation, but I imagine the RF has a much more sober assessment of the USSR than the US Kleptocracy and knows a main failing was the lack of reliability and access. “Sound as a Pound” matters.
An MQ-4C Triton with the cheeky name of OVRLD02 is approaching the strait, launching from Jordan.
Perhaps an illustration of the thought that the West, and especially US, can plausibly be considered to have been running on brand fumes since the late ’40s or early ’50s.
Seymour Melman (in his “After Capitalism” and doubtless elsewhere) dates the beginning of erosion of US industrial base to, IIRC, that period.
02. Yeah, that sounds about right. Still trying to pretend last quarter of a century did not happen, I see….
Trump says ready to resume military action against Iran
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-tells-pbs-news-that-lots-of-bombs-start-going-off-if-iran-ceasefire-expires
Donald Trump: US will not lift Hormuz blockade until deal made with Iran
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxd88r2wjzo
Rep. Roy Introduces MAMDANI Act to Denaturalize and Deport Marxists and Islamic Fundamentalists
https://roy.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-roy-introduces-mamdani-act-denaturalize-and-deport-marxists-and-islamic
Trump offers mixed messages about path ahead for US war against Iran
https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-20-april-2026-a3ddc59230ae7de719a9ff9e7595e375
Hungary must arrest Netanyahu if he visits, Magyar says
Holy Land Catholic leaders condemn Israeli soldier’s desecration of crucifix in Lebanon
I am at a complete loss for words.
Final Gaza Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment
Back to the Stone Age
Israel should pay for all of that and more.
Donald Trump’s chances of being removed from office reach all-time high
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-impeachment-removal-chances-reach-all-time-high-11852602
Donald Trump’s Truth Social post creates worry: ‘Should I be in a bunker or something’
http://pennlive.com/news/2026/04/donald-trumps-truth-social-post-creates-worry-should-i-be-in-a-bunker-or-something.html
White House Is in Full Panic Mode as Trump Doubles Down on Iran War
https://newrepublic.com/post/209282/white-house-panic-donald-trump-iran-midterms
Trump Labor Secretary Chavez-DeRemer resigns
https://www.ms.now/news/trump-labor-secretary-chavez-deremer-resigns
Journalists urge White House reporters to band together and confront Trump at Correspondents’ dinner
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/white-house-correspondents-dinner-trump-b2961384.html
Trump Considers Bailing Out UAE as It Invests in His Family’s Ventures
https://newrepublic.com/post/209273/trump-considers-bailing-out-uae
40 Israelis detained upon arrival at Moscow airport, reportedly over war with Iran
https://www.timesofisrael.com/40-israelis-detained-in-moscow-airport-reportedly-over-war-with-iran/
Republicans in Disarray as Members Target Each Other for Expulsion
https://newrepublic.com/post/209280/house-republicans-target-each-other-expulsion
Gen Z’s support for Trump shrinking fast, poll finds
https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026/04/gen-zs-support-for-trump-shrinking-fast-poll-finds.html
Israel’s critics are winning the battle for the Democratic Party
https://www.vox.com/politics/486053/israel-democratic-party-criticism-arms-sales
Even Trump’s most basic claims about the Iran war can’t be trusted
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/20/politics/analysis-trump-claims-iran-war
Federal agents detain wife of another US army member: ‘ICE is out of control’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/20/ice-detain-wife-army-member
Disabled Veterans Arrested at Capitol During Anti-Iran War Protest | Some of them were on crutches and others in wheelchairs. Others carried U.S. flags of fallen soldiers
https://www.latintimes.com/video-disable-veterans-arrested-capitol-during-anti-iran-war-protest-596754
Mar-a-Lago’s Catholic Bishop Delivers Sunday Rebuke to Trump
https://www.thedailybeast.com/mar-a-lagos-catholic-bishop-delivers-sunday-rebuke-to-trump/
The Aides Keeping the President in the Dark
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/04/donald-trump-aides-iran-war/686875/
‘Unfit, unwell, unhinged’: NAACP calls for Trump’s removal
https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/unfit-unwell-unhinged-naacp-calls-for-trumps-removal/
The Heavy Psychological Warfare to Weaken Iran in the Negotiations
Another clear strategy worth observing is the talks in Islamabad. Trump’s delegation, led by JD Vance, adopts a respectful and even cordial tone with the Araghchi and Ghalibaf, while maintaining a harsh rhetoric of annihilation against the IRGC.
This creates the public perception that there are two paths: Prosperity alongside the politicians and destruction alongside the military.
Publicly, this forces Iranian politicians to try to demonstrate control over the military, control that, in practice, they do not actually have, generating internal friction.
https://nitter.poast.org/pati_marins64/status/2046415239378276508#m
Eh, the more Marins posts the less sense she makes, in my opinion. She is heavy on supposition and light on facts. She has, as far as I can tall, absolutely no idea what is gong on inside Iran. And if that wasn’t enough, comes off as increasingly smug as though she has spotted something the silly leaders of Iran are not able to see. If anything, it looks as though Iran is taking a more hardline approach.
When someone like Professor Marandi, who has some connections to the leaders of Iran, is careful when speaking about what might be happening withing the government, it is more than annoying for someone like Marins to make such sweeping claims with nothing more than an active imagination.
One would think two could play that game: they would negotiate with representatives of US, not the mad president who ought to be removed from power if laws were being obeyed. That would mean they would only recognize the authoroty of the legitinate president, Vance, but they would not bother meeting with personal envoys of the illegitimate former president, Kushner and Witkoff. The Iranians have been bold enough that I wonder if they might actually take this line (I doubt it, but still. Thete’d been enough talk about Trump’s madness and the possibility of 25th amendment that Iranians justbmight cite US laws to justify their negotiating stance–not likely, I know…)
Why would there be a friction between politicians and IRGC? Most of the current top of both have a long careers in the IRGC and more importantly, fought together in the Iraq-Iran war.
In a simplistic sense, the political landscape of Iran consists of at least four factions (which are not homogeneous blocks), at least two of which exists in the IRGC, too. IRGC is not one of the factions with it’s own agenda*, it’s part of the Iranian politics, divided into factions.
* although they may be some pressure from the younger cadres eager to fight to “finish the job”
Russia clearing it’s throat?
Israeli media is reporting that at least 40 Israeli citizens were detained at Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport after arriving from Tel Aviv on Sunday, held for five hours without food, water, or access to restrooms.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/182484#