I’ve got to open today’s Iran War update with POTUS Trump’s latest claim that he’s opening the Strait of Hormuz to please China:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 15, 2026
Impossible to discern if Trump’s statement actually means anything as for the “talks”, the NYT had a brief update:
Senior Pakistani mediators, including the army chief, Syed Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Wednesday for talks aimed at shoring up the cease-fire between Iran and the United States before it expires next week.
If Trump has ended his blockade of the Iranian blockade, it doesn’t appear Centcom got the memo:
Yesterday, an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel tried to evade the U.S. blockade after leaving Bandar Abbas, exiting the Strait of Hormuz, and transiting along the Iranian coastline. The guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) successfully redirected the vessel, which is… pic.twitter.com/EUnwhwYiDv
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 15, 2026
But I’ve also got to follow the maxim “watch what he does, ignore what he says” so let’s look at this Washington Post report about troops moving “into the region”:
The forces moving into the region include about 6,000 troops aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and several warships escorting it, said current and former officials, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military movements. About 4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive near the end of the month.
The infusion of firepower appears likely to coalesce with warships already in the Middle East just as the two-week ceasefire is set to expire April 22. The troops will join the estimated 50,000 personnel that the Pentagon has said are involved globally in operations countering Iran.
The last video embedded in the bottom of the post features Marine Corps veteran Jim Webb discussing how many Marines would be needed to actually blockade Iranian shipping coming through the strait.
There was also belated confirmation from the US Navy of the loss of a quarter-billion dollar drone near Iran, via TWZ:
The U.S. Navy has finally confirmed that an MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone crashed back on April 9. The circumstances that led to the loss of the uncrewed aircraft remain unknown, but the incident has now been described as a mishap. The uncrewed aircraft had vanished unexpectedly from online flight tracking sites while flying over the Persian Gulf, but where exactly it went down is unclear.
On its way back to base, the US Navy MQ-4C Triton reconnaissance drone that had been patrolling the Strait of Hormuz took a turn towards Iran, squawked code 7700 (general emergency), and started descending, falling off ADS-B as it dropped under 10k feet. pic.twitter.com/1Ki8OsEk9k
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 9, 2026
Now let’s return to the land of delusion with a quick check in on the front page of the NY Times last night:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 15, 2026
Party on Mr. Market!
While we’re looking through a glass darkly, no better place to get a beam in our eyes than Fox News repeating what Israel told them:
Nearly simultaneously, explosions tore through Beirut, Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley and southern Lebanon as roughly 50 Israeli aircraft struck more than 100 Hezbollah targets.
The targets were not rocket launchers or weapons depots, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), but the nerve centers of the organization — command rooms, intelligence headquarters and offices where Hezbollah commanders planned the next stage of the fight.
“Within only a minute, the IDF eliminated 250 Hezbollah terrorists in three areas simultaneously,” the Israeli military said in a statement, adding the assessment is still ongoing.
Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an IDF spokesman, told Fox News Digital the strike was the result of weeks of intelligence work.
Israeli intelligence agencies tracked Hezbollah operatives as they moved between apartments, offices and safe houses across Lebanon.
…
“The scale of the killing and destruction in Lebanon today is nothing short of horrific,” said United Nations Human Rights Chief Volker Türk. “Such carnage, within hours of agreeing to a ceasefire with Iran, defies belief.”
While we’re hearing brag and smack talk from the empire, let’s check in on U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, via the AP:
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing Wednesday that the U.S. plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.
The threat of secondary economic sanctions on countries doing business with people, firms, and ships under Iranian control — including allies like the United Arab Emirates and competitors like China — represents an escalation of sanctions that the U.S. is already employing.
Bessent said the administration has “told companies, we have told countries that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure. And the Iranians should know that this is going to be the financial equivalent of what we saw in the kinetic activities.”
The warning comes the day after the Treasury Department sent a letter to financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Oman, threatening to levy secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran, and accusing those countries of allowing Iranian illicit activities to flow through their financial institutions.
Let’s let a little more reality intrude.
The NY Times featured this op-ed from David Wallace-Wells which allowed a little kinetic reality to intrude on its readership’s cozy world view:
American and Israeli forces were destroying quite a lot of Iranian targets, both military and civilian. But they were doing so with extremely expensive weaponry and depleting fragile stockpiles. Perhaps the Iranians were doing less damage, but they were doing it much more cheaply, with what seemed like a bountiful supply of low-cost drones, missiles and mines.
How long had it taken Americans to realize they’d gotten stuck in quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan? In this war of choice, conducted largely by air, the fearsome U.S. military had gotten trapped in a war of attrition within the very first week.
In some ways, this is asymmetric warfare familiar from three-quarters of an imperial century, and an extension of the improvised explosive device counterinsurgencies of the war on terror. But it also marks what many defense analysts told me was a genuinely new era, brought about by new technology, which has rapidly undermined the military advantage of superpowers and their gold-plated weapons systems.
…
Pretty much every time an American interceptor missile destroyed a Shahed drone, it blew a hole in the U.S. military budget measured in millions of dollars. It blew one in the Iranian budget measured in the tens of thousands. And those were the encounters logged as American successes. When the drones and missiles did get through, they could take out a $500 million American surveillance plane.
Glad someone from the MSM is noticing what the alt-media concluded after the 12 Day War last June.
And there’s mounting evidence that Iran has upped its game in 2026, with help from their friends, via FT.com (archived):
Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war, according to a Financial Times investigation.
Leaked Iranian military documents show the satellite, known as TEE-01B, was acquired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force in late 2024 after it was launched into space from China.
Time-stamped coordinate lists, satellite imagery and orbital analysis show that Iranian military commanders later tasked the satellite to monitor key US military sites. The images were taken in March before and after drone and missile strikes on those locations.
Now let’s look at domestic American political events related to the war. I’m not sure if chronicling Democratic impotence is worthwhile, please let me know in the comments.
First up, they went for the king with the 25th Amendment, via The New Republic:
Fifty House Democrats have officially filed legislation that would create a commission to jump-start the process to remove President Trump under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment.
The bill, introduced Tuesday by House Judiciary Ranking Member Jamie Raskin, would establish a “Commission on Presidential Capacity to Discharge the Powers and Duties of the Office,” a move that would allow Congress to complete its part in the Twenty-Fifth Amendment process. It also calls for the commission to hold “a medical examination of the President to determine whether the President is mentally or physically unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office.”
The bill essentially bypasses JD Vance, as Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment requires either the vice president and the Cabinet or “such other body as Congress may by law provide” to determine the president is no longer fit for office.
Secondly, House Democrats move on Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth:
Yassamin Ansari, a Democratic congresswoman from Arizona, and colleagues including John Larson of Connecticut filed six articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth on Wednesday, accusing the defense secretary of “high crimes and misdemeanors” in relation to the attack on Iran without congressional authorization, deadly strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats, sharing classified information on Signal and other official acts.
Finally, Senator Bernie Sanders tried to block U.S. funding of arms for Israel, seven Democrats crossed the aisle to keep the money for guns flowing, although their votes weren’t needed per The New Republic:
Senate Democrats on Wednesday refused to rally behind a joint resolution sponsored by Senator Bernie Sanders to block nearly $660 billion in weapons sales to Israel.
Seven Democrats joined every Republican in the Senate to vote against the resolution, which failed by a vote of 59-40.
The Democrats were: Chuck Schumer (NY), Chris Coons (DE), Catherine Cortez-Masto (NV), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), Richard Blumenthal (CT), John Fetterman (PA), and Jacky Rosen (NV).
In diplomatic moves, Italy suspended its defense deal with Israel, per Reuters:
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday her government had suspended a defence cooperation deal with Israel, reflecting frayed ties between previously close allies as the conflicts in the Middle East continue.
Meloni’s right-wing government has been one of Israel’s closest friends in Europe, but in recent weeks it has criticised its attacks on Lebanon, which have killed hundreds and injured thousands.Israel also fired warning shots last week at Italian troops serving in Lebanon under a U.N. mandate, causing damage to a vehicle.
Trump wasn’t happy and blamed the Pope, per PBS:
After chastising Pope Leo XIV, Trump turned his ire on Meloni, long one of his closest European allies, for calling his papal broadside “unacceptable” and not backing the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
“I thought she had courage,” Trump said in an interview with leading Italian daily Corriere della Sera. “I was wrong.”
“I actually think this is a godsend for her,” said Nathalie Tocci, a professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS Europe and the director of the International Affairs Institute. “Trump has become completely toxic across Europe, across much of the world, including Italy.”
Trump doubled down on Wednesday, saying their bond had frayed. “She’s been negative,” Trump told Fox News. “Anybody that turned us down to helping with this Iran situation, we do not have the same relationship.”
Let’s hear from some YouTubers now.
Former US diplomat & former GOP Senate foreign policy adviser Jim Jatras was on with Col. Daniel Davis (above). He thinks Trump is preparing “what he hopes will be a knockout blow” and that “the only option (Trump has) is escalation.”
“We’re preparing another sucker punch of some sort using these negotiations as a cover for that,” Jatras said.
Davis then quotes Mohammad Marandi who says the Iranians are expecting that and are preparing to cut off the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
Jatras admits that:
Whether the Iranians can be sucker punched or whether we will try to sucker punch them are two different things. I mean, I think that the people in Washington really think that they can catch the Iranians flatfooted again and hit and and use the negotiations as a cover.
…
I always have to ask myself, if the Iranians are so wised up to this, why are they still talking to these people? What is it that they hope to achieve? Is this just something to mollify the Russians or the Chinese or the Indians or whoever to say, “Well, no, no, we’re open to a diplomatic settlement. We’re trying to deescalate.” And they’re just going through the motions. Or do they really still hold out hope that’s some kind of a deal to be had?Just to give you an obvious example, part of any Iranian interest that would have to be codified in a deal would be lifting of sanctions. Can you imagine this Congress lifting sanctions on Iran?
…
We’re both sort of rummaging through our minds saying,’Well, what conceivably what target is there in Iran that is so valuable to them that it would amount to a knockout blow if we hit it?’I don’t know what it is. Now, you you say you don’t believe that they’re necessarily they’re they have something up their sleeve. They might not have anything up their sleeve that’ll work, but it doesn’t mean that they’re not thinking of something that they think will work.
Davis then points out that given the political climate in the US Senate dictates that “any submission at all by the president anything less than maximalist total demands giving nothing they’re going to push against (Trump).”
Jatras then asks:
Why do these countries negotiate (with the U.S.) knowing that the other side is not going to keep its side of the bargain if a deal is reached? That thoroughly puzzles me. I really don’t understand it.
I mean maybe they’re so deeply embedded in the normal world that the only way they can think of approaching an international problem is through classic diplomacy. you sit down with the other side, you try to negotiate.
He then references a discussion “by one of the other experts” that I believe refers to Col. Lawrence Wilkerson’s commentary on his most recent Dialoge Works appearance in which Wilkerson shared his shock at how unprofessional and slipshod Trump’s team in Islamabad was.
Jim Jatras: It was (Vice President JD) Vance and then the other two Pixies (Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff) and they went there and this is not what you do if you have a real negotiation.
Look back when we negotiated START with the Soviet Union. You’d have all sorts of working teams and you know various experts on different issues and this and that.
We didn’t bring any of that to Islamabad. Of course not, because it’s not a real negotiation. We’re not negotiating anything we actually intend to abide by. So why would we bring a bunch of experts just spend their time spinning spinning wheels or something to come up with a lot of details?
They’re irrelevant to the exercise. I think basically both sides are going through the motions.
And speaking of Col. Wilkerson, the dude has been on fire lately, full of insight and telling anecdote PLUS he has great inside sources.
His appearance on Danny Haiphong featured some particularly sharp insights.
Wilkerson lays out the geo-strategic implications of China’s Belt and Road initiative and how it threatens to dramatically weaken the U.S. by speeding land transportation to the degree that shipping becomes much less relevant.
Wilkerson argues that a large part of the deep motivation for the Ukraine war was to cut Europe off from land-based trade with China.
He also emphasizes that the US and Israel have been bombing Iran’s rail connections with China “day and night.”
Then he discusses Turkey’s position:
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: One of the countries of middling power, if you will, but nonetheless a power that’s caught in the middle of this and seems to not know what to do is Turkey.
And I don’t just mean Erdogan. I mean anyone that might replace Erdogan. [Foreign Minister Hakan] Fidan or whomever it might be.
I don’t think they know what to do. They have a number of directions they could move. They could just say to hell with NATO and to hell with the American Empire and move decisively into BRICS and join China and Russia.
Or they could somehow try to maintain a studied neutrality and divorce themselves over time from NATO.
Or, and this is the least possible one, they could remain in NATO, anchoring the southern flank, a flank that’s falling apart even as we speak, and try to make that work. But I don’t think that’s even a viable option for them. So, where do they go?
Then he gets into the disconnect, both in capabilities and interests, between Trump and the oligarchs who control him and the American political system.
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: we’re looking at the whole scene of the world changing right now. And I don’t think anyone in the United States government of consequence has a clue.
They’re batting uh with a bad bat. They’re hitting 90 mph fast balls and fouling them off into the stands and that’s about all they’re doing. There’s no way they’re going to get a base hit, let alone hit a home run. And none of them know that.
The question in my mind is when and at what juncture in terms of this struggle the people who really are behind it and by these people I mean people (whose) names people would recognize like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel and so forth but there are quite a few names behind it that don’t have American names and they’re waiting to see when to jump ship and where to jump ship to. And I don’t mean that in terms of rats. I mean that in terms of the people who run the world.
I hope no one was bothered by the baseball analogy, I would normally have cut that kind of thing but it was important to the point he is making and very vivid imagery to those who know the game. Apologies to those who don’t.
One last quote from the Colonel where he brings it home it a way that would make Dr. Aaron Good proud.
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: This is not a win/win situation as it should be for the two most powerful countries in the world, the declining one, the United States and the rising one, China. And with Russia on (China’s) side, considerably more powerful than she would be alone,it’s not a good deal.
(To) come back to what I talked about in the first moments of this interview, the business about Donald Trump wanting a way out and to extricate himself and why I said he doesn’t even understand this geostrategic rationale. He doesn’t.
But do you think the powers behind the throne are going to let Donald Trump get out of this war? And I’m not so sure that Bibi (Netanyahu’s) not one of those powers behind the throne. a despicable one, a murderous one, a homicidal one, a genocidal one, but nonetheless a smart one. And I’m not so sure he doesn’t know that, understand that. And he has connections with the Davos crowd. And so they’re not going to let Trump get out of this war until China is severely damaged. And I don’t see any way in the world that we severely damage China without severely damaging ourselves. in fact more so than we damaged China.
So where does this go? Even if it has a geostrategic rationale that makes sense, where does it go? And especially with a Trump who wants out by any method he can get out and declaration of a victory. It’s a nightmare.
I could quote a great deal more from Wilkerson’s insights but I should just encourage those who have time and interest to watch the whole thing.
I also need to recommend this Duran interview with Jim Webb for it’s discussion of the military details of an American blockade. Webb is a combat veteran.
Jim Webb: I was a marine. I was an infantryman in the Marine Corps. One of our um key onboard ship roles is called VBSS or vessel boarding search and seizure.
This is something that is very labor and marine intensive. You cannot just seize a ship with a handful of guys. Think about how big one of those tankers are and how much space you have to cover. It’s not a whole lot different in concept than clearing a building in an urban environment.
You need a lot of people to do it and then you need to hold it and then you need to drive it somewhere and do something.
So, the number of Marines which are in the Gulf right now capable of that are very limited. I would say probably about only 2 to 3,000.
You have the larger footprint, but your actual combat guys are a fraction of that, about one third of the overall troops that are deployed there.
This is the same problem we had with people talking about seizing terrain on the ground, too.
The blockade appears to be somewhat of a paper tiger overall. And this actually goes in direct contradiction with the laws of Laws of Armed Conflict that govern (Department of Defense) where you are not supposed to put a blockade in place that is in fact only on paper as it only inflames tensions.
In terms of the objectives of this it’s really hard to discern how you break a blockade. If you want to call what the Iranians are doing a blockade. it looks more like a toll to pay for the damage in their country over the last month.
But with another blockade the only logical conclusion that I can come to about what the Trump administration is thinking is that if they restrict travel through the strait, they will put enough pressure on Iran because somehow he perceives that the US has the moral high ground here and that the international community will come and back him up and force the Iranians to fully open the straight and drop their tolls and also perhaps give up their own sovereignity and control over that strait and the nuclear dust that they also possess. And quite frankly, that’s a fool’s errand.
The strait was open. It was toll-free until Trump decided to bomb Iran uh on behalf of the Israeli government uh a little more than a month ago. It’s a problem (Trump) created and this appears to be a very desperate attempt to force a solution that is not there.
Webb also shares some insights about the alleged rescue mission from the first weekend in April.
Firstly he notes the units that have been reported to have been involved. Then he points out that several of the units, like the Navy Seals and Army Delta Force, do not perform a search and rescue role — which is reserved for a particular Air Force unit — but rather specialize in offensive raids.
He speculates that multiple missions may have overlapped but ultimately concludes that the mission was doomed at the point they took a static position.
Webb finishes by speculating that the mission was a trial run for something larger and points out that “I think the memo was received by seeing the results of that operation. We lost more aircraft to hostile fire there than I think in the entire global war on terror.”
Dr. Robert Pape of the University of Chicago has blown up online since the war began. He has spent his career studying the American air war in Viet Nam, why it could never have achieved the American objectives and how America got trapped in the war in the first place.
He calls it The Escalation Trap. So far he’s mostly been on Breaking Points which is respectable but not really my vibe so I was curious to see him in the video above with Cyrus Janson who I know from videos he’s done with Alex White aka @Reporterfy (thanks Windall for finding his real name), but otherwise am unfamiliar with.
Janson seems to be Canadian and more interested in finance than the Breaking Points crew.
Here’s the outline of Pape’s appearance on the show with time stamps. I hope you find his schtick interesting as well as his knowledge. He may be a bit of a one-trick pony (we’ll see over time), but it’s kind of charming to see him dealing with his new online profile.
Pape has studied previous supply shocks and the economic fallout ensuing and uses that knowledge to explain what kind of after effects can be expected and when they might hit:
Dr. Robert Pape: The bottom line is that when you when you study blockades and these are economic blockades often in war and I’ve studied them for 30 years as part of my economic sanctions work, my air power work (which also looks at the naval blockades) you see a clear framework which is in the early weeks of a blockade what you end up with is disruption of goods that go in which increase the price of the good inside of the of the entity that’s being blockaded.
In this case, the world is being blockaded. So, it increases the price and the reason is because there’s stuff left in that uh country. There’s material, there’s stockpiles.
That’s why blockades increase price, but then after about four or five weeks, maybe 45 days, you get a different stage.
That’s the stage where those stockpiles run out. And that’s where you get true shortages. Now you’ve had fear of shortage. That’s why the price went up in the first 45 days. But after the first after 45 days, now you actually have shortages. And you really see those shortages materializing in South Korea, the Philippines.
Pakistan already going to 4 day work weeks now because there’re actual shortages occurring. Well, after the next stage beyond that, say days 60 to 90, you get to the third stage which is contraction of commodity production because you uh you don’t have some alternative supply source for 20% of the world’s oil, 30% of the world’s fertilizer. There’s nothing like that just sitting around waiting lying idle to be plugged in.
So what you end up with is a three stage which is price rise, shortage, contraction and I published this a few days ago and you see now we have the IMF coming out basically explaining this.
I’m comparing it to the 1973 in in these stages. So, so you can really see that in the 1973 oil shock almost identically the stages happen there too.
Same with blockade around uh Japan to get Japan to surrender in World War II.
There’s these three stages and once you understand the stages then you know what to look for at each stage as the hard indicators and that then gives you a heads up on the risk that’s coming and and so we’re at day 46 right now.
So we just passed day 45 and even that with the US military blockade in addition to the Iranian blockade there’s precious little going to get out of the Strait of Hormuz at this point.
Maybe it’s couple ships here and there but we’re not expecting a flood that’s for sure. So, what that means is that by May 1st, you’re going to start to see real shortages happen and they will start to be reported in the newspapers.
Then by June 1st, that’s when you’ll probably start to get the first actual reports of true commodity contraction. think producers producing less of furniture, producing less medical equipment, producing less automobiles. There will be generalized contraction as those that are are not just more expensive, they’re just not there.
So that is where the real rub comes and that’s why um uh you will see as much as they’re screaming and shouting right now we got to end this we got to end this wait till May 1st and then wait till June 1st and then this is going to then go on and that’s what happened by the 1973 oil shock that went on 151 days. That’s exactly the number of days it went on and that was enough to send the US economy into stagflation for eight years.
Thanks to Ann for dropping so many great links in the comments yesterday!
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Thanks for stepping in to keep these updates going, Nat.
I don’t see how the Iranians can allow Witless and the Grifter to be present at any future negotiations.
They are clearly serving Israeli interests, making the negotiations a charade at best, and a pretext for more treachery more likely.
Meanwhile, the economic damage is compounding. We hit day 49 of the Strait closure tomorrow, my math says seven weeks. Remember when Taco said this will be over in 4-6 weeks?
The suspicious refinery fires continue, this one in Australia:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/major-fire-at-australian-oil-refinery-to-impact-nations-petrol-supplies/ar-AA20ZJYY
Mr. Market still thinks this will all buff out. There are so many imponderables here … is Taco really going to try a ground operation, using the ceasefire as a pretext to buy time to “reload?” Two can play that game … Iran has had time to reload, too. Is it even within the realm of possibility that Xi is going to allow Taco to show up at his doorstep next month, given the latest developments? How can I bet on this not happening? Does Polymarket offer a parlay?
You pick on ‘Witless and the Grifter’, but it was Vance who took a call from Netanyahu during the Islamabad negotiations.
Epstein seems to have control over many people, even from the grave.
…and slid back the granite slab for a few more rounds of Fortnite. 🎮
And to receive FedEx packages. And a helicopter ride out of Isreal.
IMO there is something which is very difficult to be understood by some or many USians and that is, the interest of other countries which are being confronted in war, to show that they are always ready for talks, even when the US clearly isn’t, save talks to impose conditions. When US conditions do not hold, talks are transformed into a charade. Iran does it, show interest in talks, just to show the rest of the world, not that the US is agreement incapable, but also unable to just talk and less so understanding there are other views which might merit a hearing. I understand the perplexity this causes in the US because, used to be the ones imposing conditions every time, what sense make talks with objectives other than imposing conditions?
I’d personally go even further than that and argue the Iranians keep showing up because it’s quietly one of their lowest-cost to highest-value actions. They know the US camp can’t structurally uphold a real agreement. Khamenei Sr. would hint the hardliners even expected the US to breach the JCPOA, but this would be useful to split the US from Europe & Asia on top of weakening the reformists.
The Iranian diplomatic corps has the skills & will collect a paycheck regardless so they may as well try things. Also, like you said, they’re repeatedly embarrassing the US globally, even if the US can’t register embarrassment anymore. The US power structure honestly seems to have passed beyond even narcissism into a strange kind of (I use this word in the old psychiatric sense, not to insult anyone on the spectrum) autism.
But more than blanket global opinion, I think the Iranian diplomatic pushes are focused on elite consensus in specific countries, especially Pakistan, which started these talks as a favor to the US, only for the US to treat them as a joke. Now on top of Shii and Imran Khan supporters, even some of the US-aligned compradors have to be considering switching teams.
There’s something very difficult to be understood by other people in the world that there are interests from other countries (interests that align with establishment figures in the USA in some way) who use various kinds of influence to keep the US military involved in messes. Others more quietly go in and take advantage of some of the chaos or lack of sovereignty created in other counties. Then in public perform their best dramatic acts about about “international law’ and “human rights”.
Thanks, Nat!
“Crashed” huh? At $600m, I guess it’s too humiliating to admit it was very likely shot down. MIC grifters rubbing their palms furiously for moar orders.
MQ-4C is a very costly knock off on USAF Global Hawk (I do not know where they are, what they are doing) a problematic system that should have been more thoroughly tested and not built.
It is a single engine aircraft and so crashes on engine flame out, and unsuccessful restart!
David ($20k Shahed drone) versus Goliath ($600 million MQ-4C Triton)
Sling low, sweet chariot, drone is gonna take you home…
Peculiar?
https://www.itamilradar.com/2026/04/16/a-new-us-navy-mq-4c-triton-arriving-at-sigonella-with-a-peculiarity/
Just a WAG – they programmed the transponder code before leaving the states to mimic the Triton that crashed, perhaps to avoid needing to reprogram some other equipment in theatre that they don’t have the maintenance onsite to reprogram in the middle of a shooting war? They have to pretend the replacement UAV is really the crashed UAV to get the house of cards to work?
(on second thought – that might actually be a cleaner solution, especially if there are many systems in theatre that would need updating, and software updates are always asking for trouble….)
The Iranians have hijacked and captured US drones before.
There seems to be something wrong with our bloody UAVs’ today…
(with apologies to Admiral Beatty)
Now, now. Don’t go exaggerating the cost. It was only ~$240 million: roughly the cost of three F-18s.
Ouch.
Thanks Nat for taking on the ‘show’. Important information we won’t get from the MSM.
The S L I C C of the Fog of War.
Simple arithmetic… if there were four billion of us suffering through the oil shocks of the 70’s, howzitgonnabe for the 8 billions?
What a mess.
There weren’t many drivers in the Communist Bloc party during the oil shocks of the 70’s, especially in China.
Indeed. Alas, no audio. I remember the sounds of bicycle bells chiming. Not so much today!
We only had the radio & CB in the gas lines of ’79, and what a pacifier that thing that resembles a shrunken down version of the monolith in 2001, A Space Odyssey that fits into the palm of our hands is.
Why, a half-mile wait for go-juice will go by in a jiffy!
US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump Pivots – Bloomberg (archived)
The top US derivatives regulator is investigating a series of suspiciously well-timed trades in the oil futures market ahead of recent policy pivots by President Donald Trump related to the war in Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is leading the probe into trading of oil futures contracts on platforms belonging to CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc., said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. Both exchanges were asked to hand over data, the people said.
Oh wow an investigation! Maybe next they’ll form a task force and a subcommittee and send a strongly worded letter.
Or they’ll find themselves out of their jobs. With presidential pardons for any traders found to have been involved.
I have no idea how to get the data but I wonder how the fraction of people trump pardoned who have been subsequently convicted of a serious crime compares to the fraction of undocumented immigrants who have been convicted of a serious crime.
A committee decides which committee decides which committee decides which committee decides.
– Ed Haynes, “I Want To Kill Everybody”, ca. 1989.
The CFTC is supposed to have five commissioners, with no more than three from any one political party, and the chair appointed by the president. The chair is currently Michael Selig. Trump had appointed Brian Quintenz, but billionaire crypto-spawn were snuggling up to him, and he published their text messages. So Selig was the backup; he’s “sound” in that he worked for crypto clients as an attorney. Upon his appointment, the rest of the board quit, so it’s not clear how well staffed the CFTC would be for a full inquiry. Presumably, it’d just be Selig on his laptop, with several tabs open trading crypto, and another with a timer ticking down until it can be safely assumed that the public has forgotten that some people made a killing on a killing, with uncompetitive profiteering.
Coons is from Delaware not Rhode Island.
Yes, we should not impugn the slightly less Zionist Dem senators from RI!
Thanks, will fix!
Doing a great job Nat
The only reason I can think of that the Iranians continue diplomacy is that they’re hedging in case Trump falls ill, gets removed, etc., and at that point at least they have talking relationships with Vance or whoever takes over.
They’re also likely hedging for when commodity problems get pronounced and negotiations actually happen in earnest.
Keeping the conversation going is never a bad thing, I’d venture to say. Opportunities arise when you know the other party. You have sat in ballrooms with these other negotiators for weeks and months, both sides knowing the whole thing was BS, drinking coffee. You make friends. You find leverage where you can.
The Iranians continue diplomacy because it is important that they are seen as the grownups here, trying to de-escalate. As a result they have received criticism for not instigating kinetic responses when specifically provoked to do so in multiple occasions, such as when Isr continued to attack Lebanon during the run up to the non-negotiations. in Pakistan.
Papering the file. When a criminal prosecution is proceeding unfairly and defense counsel can reasonably assume that their client will be convicted, the best thing that they can do is to cross all their Ts and dot their Is for the attorney who handles what is hopefully an inevitable appeal. History is our file here, and it will be difficult to interpret American decision-makers’ actions as anything other than malicious, bad-faith wrongdoing, whereas their Iranian counterparts will come across as the reasonable party.
That’s my impression as well.
And unlike Americans in general and especially the one who eagerly watch “Fox News repeating what Israel told them,” Iran is aware of all the other countries in the world.
And the US comes off looking like Dean Wormer…
Hey c’mon, like Bluto said,” nothing’s over until we say it’s over!”
https://youtu.be/q7vtWB4owdE
Yep. I feel like Iran is playing to an international audience while the Trump admin is strictly domestic/Maga.
If you consider the talks (negotiations seems too elevated a term) as an adjunct of the temporary cessation of hostilities, another possibility (not mutually exclusive) arises.
Certain parties have asked why Iran would agree to a ceasefire when they had the military advantage? It is doubtful they would have agreed to such were they to consider it significantly disadvantageous. While this situation buys the US time to bring more men and materiel into theater, it does not allow them to reconstitute the bases and expensive hardware such as radar systems which have been damaged/destroyed. Meanwhile, assuming Iran has maintained some military manufacturing capacity, they can continue producing cheap drones and perhaps even missiles, presumably far outnumbering the quantity of JASSMs, for example, that the US can produce in the same time to replace spent stock. And while Iran is not at the moment taking more damage, the closure of the SoH has yet to be genuinely felt economically and financially abroad — it may be that the more time that elapses between now and a resumption of kinetic war the better for them. Waging future war becomes more expensive for the adversary as time goes by.
So aside from demonstrating diplomatic decorum (DDD), the talks are a necessary component of the military pause which Iran us using, in their estimation, to their future advantage.
Please note that this is simple speculation from someone who is decisively a non-expert.
I’m one of the people who has wanted them to push the advantage, but this comment makes me see value in their chosen approach.
It’s as they say: Persians invented chess. I probably need to work on my own game a little!
Heck, they may even be trying to negotiate for, well, maybe . . . The Iranian people? Not just for domestic politics, but actually for the people? Don’t know for sure but it’s certainly possible.
Here in the United States I think most of us have forgotten what it’s like to actually have leaders who do stuff for “The People”. I think the last thing I can recall – well, the only thing recently – is the checks that Trump sent out during COVID. Those really helped a lot of people. Even inmates got those checks.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have leaders that seem to want to improve things for their country . . . Sigh.
Lime and limpid green
A second scene
A flight above Hormuz you once knew
Floating down
The sound resounds
Around the icy waters underground
MQ-4C Triton
Losses can frighten
Blinding signs flap
Flicker, flicker, flicker blam
Pow, pow
High technology scare
A half billion affair
Who’s there?
Lime and limpid green, the sound resounds
The icy waters under
Lime and limpid green, the sound resounds
The icy waters underground
Astronomy Domine, by Pink Floyd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UbNbor3OqQ&list=RD8UbNbor3OqQ
For our Dear Leader
One, two, free, four!
The memories of a man in his old age
Are the deeds of a man in his prime
You shuffle in gloom of the sickroom
And talk to yourself as you die
Life is a short, warm moment
And death is a long, cold rest
You get your chance to try in the twinkling of an eye
Eighty years, with luck, or even less
So all aboard for the American tour
And maybe you’ll make it to the top
And mind how you go, and I can tell you, ’cause I know
You may find it hard to get off
But you are the angel of death
And I am the dead man’s son
And he was buried like a mole in a fox hole
And everyone is still on the run
And who is the master of fox hounds?
And who says the hunt has begun?
And who calls the tune in the courtroom?
And who beats the funeral drum?
The memories of a man in his old age
Are the deeds of a man in his prime
You shuffle in gloom in the sickroom
And talk to yourself as you die
Free Four
Pink Floyd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9N31s9ufvAE
Quite prophetic, that!
Another that doesn’t need revision:
I Hope I Never, by Split Enz
I fall apart when you’re around
When you’re here, I’m nowhere
I can’t pretend that I’m not down
I show it, I know it
I’ve been a fool – more than once, more than twice
I’m gonna move to a new town where the people are nice
I hope I never, I hope I never have to sigh again
I hope I never, I hope I never have to cry again
I still want to beam and smile
Happiness is back in style yeah
I hope I never, I hope I never have to see you again
Again, oh oh oh oh…
It should be possible I know
To see you without stress
But I can see I’ll have to go
I’m changing my address
My urge to cry I have failed to conceal
Life – it’s no fun when you’re hunted by the things that you feel
I hope I never, I hope I never have to sigh again
I hope I never, I hope I never have to cry again
I’m for living while you can
I’m an optimistic man
I hope I never, I hope I never have to see you again
Again, oh oh oh oh…
I hope I never
I hope I never
I hope I never, never, never…
I hope I never, I hope I never have to see you again
Again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSAcH5e6ibY&list=RDOSAcH5e6ibY
I love Syd Barrett!
Off topic, but I would love to hear your thoughts about Syd. I never “got’ his “genius”. Decades after the fact, I think Floyd would never have developed into half the band that they did had Barrett remained in the picture. I loved early Floyd, once they got that first album behind them. I find it largely unlistenable, except for a few spots of brilliance here and there. But as always, YMMV.
Shine on you crazy diamond
I mostly agree (unlistenable is too harsh). Although Gilmour turned out to be a sh*t human being, he took the band to a higher level. The genius behind PF was Roger Waters all along.
When they sold the Floyd catalog for $400 million in 2024, it was said that Roger Waters politics caused a 10% reduction in the overall value of the portfolio. Those being the very same politics that, in hindsight, he was 100% correct about.
The genocide was already in full swing by then and Waters was very vocal in condemning it, sparking condemnations from his former band mate and his wife. Waters is also a major funder of The Grayzone and, I believe, the Sumud flotillas. Good man.
really hard to see where things go from here. Fighting may resume, the current status quo of a ceasefire with double blocade can continue, or one side can climb down on some of their core demands and the strait is reopened. Anyone’s guess about what happens next. Obviously, the current situation cannot go on forever so either we see a climdown (probably Iran abandoning tolling and reparations for some promises China and Russia will help them rebuild) or fighting will resume. I don’t see the US losing enough to be the party to climb down. While the wound is self-inflicted, it is still less serious than just about every other country’s injury from this crime.
Forever can be measured in years for existent entities. Wilkerson spoke about the Xi saying they’re going to substitute the renminbi for the dollar (27:52); of extremely wealthy Israelis leaving and where will they land (40:16); and that 50% of US 18 to 24 year olds would leave if we instituted a draft (13:16) ! ! ! That’s the timeframe Iran needs to keep the pressure on, as these entities collapse, and before there is parity in missile capacity.
Hi,
Well, in his recent post, Larry Johnson thinks it is going to get kinetic again:
https://sonar21.com/watch-what-trump-does-ignore-what-he-says-more-war-on-the-agenda/
I would be amazed if the fighting doesn’t start again. My impression is that the ceasefire only wrapped up the opening, but that means we’re still only starting the “mid-game”.
Then again I was also surprised last June when things paused after 12 days. I thought for sure Trump was just randomly wish-casting on social media like usual when it happened.
I have no idea what to expect next from the US though, only that it will be 99% utterly shambolic. Plus the Iranians have done better conventionally than even I expected (e.g. the IRIAF still flying & the extent their intel agencies have infiltrated Israel).
I don’t think anyone familiar with the Iranian strategy expects a climb-down based on a calculation, especially under Trump/Netanyahu. The end-state is exhaustion, at which point USrael slinks away because it simply can’t sustain the war. They’ll try to spin it as a win, but sooner or later, the strategic reality will implode the current governments.
I think we might see the ceasefire extended. The Iranians will say that the US accepted their terms, the US that Iran has accepted theirs, there won’t be any agreement but both sides will pretend that there is and the ceasefire will be extended and the Hormuz remain doubly-closed for another two weeks.
In his latest talk with Pr Diesen, Pr Marandi states that Iran would accept a ceasefire encompassing Iran and its allies + control of Hormuz. He didn’t even mention dropping sanctions. That might be something the US can walk away with without admitting defeat.
Of course, that just means that fighting will resume in another 18 months when Israel does another mowing of the lawn in Iran. It will, of course, attack Lebanon much sooner than that.
A pet theory I have is that most wars would not take place if the sides in conflict were suffuciently consolidated that the factional infighting is kept under reasonable control. However, to borrow from Yves’ theory of negotiations, the sides in conflict are usually very divided and are in conflict among themselves and the only way to more or less settle this is to divide up the expected spoils from the fight. So “overly optimistic projections” (the other guy will be easy to defeat and we’ll be able to take all their stuff and use them to settle all our disputes) are built into the process. This ensures, in turn, that talks break down and the fighting continues to the bitter end, after which there’s a reckoning (WW1, on both sides, came to this sort of conclusion.) There are many good reasons why the current ME mess (and Ukr mess) should be wrapped up fast, but the amount of intra coalotionsl IOUs, payable from the plunder after “winning,” is already too enormous to be torn up easily.
Oh, this is bad. Larry says Trump has dementia, can’t comprehend how he’s wrecking the world economy. I believe Larry. Is it possible to Article 25 Trump, soon?
I think Iran will use funds from the “toll booth” to rebuild and will do without direct help from Russia or China.
The US will capitulate eventually, in my view. Trump will find some way to call it a victory. There is no better option. Won’t happen until the economic pain from the energy crisis is more apparent. Maybe by Labor Day.
I listened to Jim Jatras on Daniel Davis yesterday evening as I was walking the dogs and didn’t understand his lack of understanding
It seems to me Iran and Russia make big theater out of this for a very good reason. It shows the world that the USA is the unreasonable, unreliable, untrustworthy, devious party and they are reasonable, reliable, predictable ones. This was starting to work a little bit with Biden but now with Trump it’s really working and, I would think, well worth the effort.
Jatras is right that the Russian and Iranian teams know that the USA will only make an agreement intending to renege on it but there are billions of people in the world. Demonstrating it to them in practice over and over is changing things.
Pr Marandi exlained this in a recent talk on Neutrality Studies but the reason intelligent people keep questioning this strategy is not because they didn’t understand what Iran was trying to do but why. When you know that this can only be resolved on the battlefield, you should focus on resolving it on the battlefield. Public opinion shifts at a glacial pace, and Iran should focus on the battlefield it has an advantage in and make reality on the ground. When the US has no presence in the ME and Israel moves to Patagonia, it will no longer matter who started what. Engaging in talks in and of itself didn’t cost anything, but losing momentum did.
So the diplomats should be just sent home for a vacation? Since they are not going to pick arms, drive launhing trucks, target with missiles, etc? If the diplomats are able to show the world the banckruptcy of the US, why not do it? One can walk and chew gum at the same time, no?
One can view the “appeasement” of Germany by Britain in 1938 as a case of negotiating when military actions may have been an appropriate response.
But some have suggested that Britain was in such poor shape militarily that the diplomatic negotiations resulting in the so-called “appeasement” was the only British option as it bought time.
Iran was threatened with complete destruction by Trump, an d the negotiations allowed Trump to climb down from this threat.
Maybe Iran can do two things at the same time, negotiate while getting battlefield ready.
That was the example I was thinking of. When an enemy is inplacable and only seeks your destruction, negotiations can only buy time. For Britain, that time was used rearming.
Time may be still on Iran’s side, but it seems to me that Iran had the momentum and didn’t need to stall.
But as the Chinese say, who knows what is good or bad. Perhaps while continuing to pulverize zionist assets after the latter ran out of conventional weapons to hurt Iran with they would have used WMDs and the ceasefire saves lives. So perhaps it was good.
But perhaps the ceasefire allowed the US to move more assets in the region which will cause the deaths of millions over several years so maybe bad.
Iran could have a much longer time horizon than the USA and the Trump administration.
If Iran were to immediately prosecute the war, they may not be viewing a target rich environment.
For Iran’s perspective, letting the USA move more targets in place could be a positive.
The time constant of the USA’s hardware rebuilding seems long, so Iran could harvest some long term peace by giving more time to the USA to re-stock and then disabling the restocked armaments.
Professor Marandi on Talking Points :
——————————————————————————————————
QUESTION: So sir, with respect then, why did the Iranian government agree to a ceasefire? Why did they agree to a ceasefire if they are so sure that the war is going to resume ? Because from here in Washington, the consensus is that the Iranian government agreed to a ceasefire because they couldn’t take the pain anymore…The Pentagon did a press conference this morning saying that they’re reloading. Why would you permit the enemy to reload if you never believed that this was going to happen?
MARANDI : Well, there are three reasons . And let me give you an example. First, during the 12-day war last year, where the US and Israeli regime carried out an assault on the country, after about 6 days, the tide turned in favor of Iran. And after 8 days or so, it was Netanyahu who was seeking a ceasefire. And after 12 days, Iran agreed to halt…to a cessation of hostilities.
Some were saying, well, why didn’t Iran continue then? Iran saw that during that 12-day war, it had major issues that it had to deal with…there were shortcomings in the way in which we had planned for war, in how the defensive and offensive capabilities of the country were arranged. And they knew that if the war continued, the United States would enter. So they thought that they would use this time to improve their capabilities.
And during the eight months, we’ve seen how everything has changed. Despite the immense US firepower, which is much greater than that of the Israeli regime, which would be defeated in a fight against Iran, Iran has performed much better. So, it was because of the experience of the 12-day war.
Right now, the Iranians are rearming. They’re preparing.
But also like before…every single day that goes by, the strait of Hormuz is more or less closed and that is putting more pressure on the United States under Trump. And the belief in Iran is that Trump does not make the decisions. It is the Israeli lobby, the Zionist lobby and Netanyahu. And so the only way to force the United States to make a decision that benefits its own people is to increase the economic pressure so much that the United States under Trump, or the leadership, ultimately says…well here we have to prioritize our own interests over those of Netanyahu. So each day that goes by, we’re approaching sadly a global economic catastrophe which will probably lead to a a world economic depression. But Iran is preparing for war.
Iran is also negotiating in order to be seen by the international community as participating in negotiations. But Iran also achieved something big through the ceasefire and that is that everyone saw that on day one the United States demanded that Iran submit and accept defeat. That didn’t happen. And after 40 days, the United States accepted Iran’s conditions, the 10point plan, as the framework for discussion.
Now later on the spokeswoman for the White House said we threw it in the bin. But that’s not important. What is important is that everyone saw the evolution of the US demands from unconditional surrender to okay we’ll accept talking within your own framework. And that I think was a sea change or created a sea change in perceptions of the war across the world.
https://youtu.be/u33zTDa95as?t=371
[transcript very slightly edited]
thanks for this. I do hope the ceasefire benefits Iran more than Israel
As was said in Dune, “You made the peace gesture. The forms have been obeyed.” It needs to be clear beyond doubt to the whole world, in a way that even the US controlled mainstream media cannot spin, that the US walked away from negotiations and attacked even when a good deal was on the table. It’s why initially in Ukraine, Russia made those huge concessions before Boris Johnson blew up the agreement and why Iran also made huge concessions before the Ramadan War. The gesture was made and ignored, so it will be settled on the battlefield
Totally agree.
Also, Putin’s got a trusty pressure valve called Dmitri who goes around saying things P shouldn’t be heard saying.
In my business, we have a concept of “writing for the Judge”. When we detect signs of bad faith in the other party, we start getting ready for the inevitable Court session, so start writing nice and reasonable and polite letters well early.
No kidding. And Medvedev says things like this:
https://x.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/2044461187115397617
Our course the Europeon leadership will ignore these warnings. Too much grift to grab.
This.
Nobody in the US is aware of the Minsk agreements and how they were broken, or how three former heads of state publicly admitted they were just a ruse to buy time to allow Ukraine to arm itself to eventually confront Russia. Most USians supported the Zionist entity after Hamas attacked in 2023. It took a while, but it slowly became apparent who the bad guys are in Gaza.
Once Trump took office again, that idea crystalized due to pre-existing hatred from liberals and Trump breaking his anti-war promises to his conservative base. That, plus all the crazy. Now it’s clear to most who the bad guys are in the conflicts with Venezuela, Lebanon and Iran. I believe most USians oppose all those conflicts at this point and realize that the US is the aggressor. It may eventually dawn on them that if the US is the bad guy everywhere else, just maybe they are in Ukraine as well.
The rest of the world on the receiving end of US imperialism has known all of this for decades. With enough repetition, perhaps it will finally sink in to the US population as well, especially as more and more people abandon the propaganda outlets like CNN, etc.
Thanks. Re “deeply embedded in the normal world”–well, that’s the whole ball of wax isn’t it? Large portions of our ruling class have gone insane and the Israelis, who think themselves so smart, have as well with their goal of having a few million control the fate of billions. How many will starve and suffer or have their economies collapse so Israel can have their way? We are living in a situation where power has become disconnected from reality.
Wilkerson is good but Douglas Macgregor has also been good lately and has been making the point that when you existentially threaten people they band together and acquire a moral force that is more powerful than the fast diminishing supply of smart bombs and missiles. Those deeply embedded in the abnormal world (Trump/Netanyahu,) can’t understand this or refuse to admit it. They think “I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone” but where will they go?
A lot of people and not just Trump need a psych exam these days. The normal world increasingly demands it.
I need to watch some of Col. MacGregor’s recent talks. He was one of the first alt-media stars I discovered (along with Scott Ritter) and I have tended to watch less of their stuff lately.
He was part of Trump 1 apparently and is not some lefty. He seems very smart, I think–perhaps a better military analyst than Big Serge with his “trashcannistan.”
IIRC he (like A. Mercouris) dismays me a little in placing too much (which, to my mind, is “any at all”) emphasis on the issue of the accumulated Federal deficit (aka “national debt”). I really wish they would both acquaint themselves with the work of people like Randall Wray, Bill Mitchell, Stephanie Kelton, and their colleagues.
If defense of both of them, this shows up in their discourse as an incidental item, almost a “throw away” line that is not central to their analyses. They are sensitive to the more fundamental problem of the real, material, constraints on national power, which are much more consequential for a monetary sovereign than is the magnitude of the cumulative deficit. I don’t know why they mention it.
I wish the deficit hawks would mention the large economic resource costs of the foreign wars, war on drugs, and war on terror.
Maybe I haven’t been paying attention but the MMT people don’t seem to be concerned about these actions that diminish the lives of many in America and the world as human and material resources are squandered fighting these “wars”.
That’s because MacGregor has been (or at least had been) hawking gold.
I could see where Mercouris is coming from, literally: Greece. MMT is not for small countries (and his new country, so to speak–I guess he’s been in UK far longer than he’d been in Greece–is increasingly looking like the Greece of his youth.)
Serge is a good popularizer of military history but out of his depth as an analyst IMO.
His Trashcanistan piece basically describes what was done to Libya from 2011-2013 and acts as if 1) the approach is being applied for the first time in Iran in 2026 and 2) that it has a hope of succeeding in Iran.
I think it’s a plausible description of what the Americans might be trying to accomplish there, though, whether it has any chance of success or not. I don’t see how it would work either, but Iran just might be weaker than it looks and that must be their great hope here. As per Churchill’s quote about the uncertainties of war, there would be no war if the other man didn’t think he had a chance – and clearly both sides do think they have a chance, how ever delusional this may prove to be.
The difference from Libya is that it actually did have a rebellion on the ground first and air support later. Here it’s effectively reversed.
Plus, Iran, more than most countries, is probably the subject of Western delusion–a counyry full of disaffected people eager to overthrow their leaders and welcome imperialists in pith helmets and jodhpurs to rule over them and relieving them of unnecesary riches.
Ironically, this was not just a Western thing: one reason the Japanese were so cruel towards conquered peoples during WW2 was their perceived “ingratitude,” that they were not willing to make the sort of sacrifices that the Japanese felt they should make in return for their “liberation.”
I think they both overestimate US ground force capabilities. Mcgregor also seems to have a world view shaped by friendships in Germany. I listened to him early because he had more realistic expectations for the Ukraine conflict. But so did McCaffery at the start, who said that Russia could finish Ukraine in 6 months tops. I think Mcgregor has slowly come around to understanding the impact of precision hypersonic missiles, to be fair.
Larry Johnson is probably the best generalist among the connected retired US guys. Danny Davis seems very open minded and is evolving. Glenn Diesen is the emerging alt media star I think. He has the most substantive discussions.
Towards the end of this recent talk it’s interesting to hear Col. Wilkerson mention that W told Powell to “protect” Walmart with regard to China. I find it hard to not understand that the current lack of good blue collar workers in America to do all of the work needed in America is not directly related to Walmart’s methodical crushing of American manufacturing. Look at the FRED data on this:
All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/manemp
American manufacturing jobs just nosedived during W’s time in office. Walmart was on a rampage to get everything cheaper, and move the manufacturing to China. It is hard to really describe how much this gutted America manufacturing. The small manufacturing shops that could quickly reconfigure to make just about anything? Gone. The skilled machinists, drafters, designers, engineers, that made all that work? Gone. All of those jobs, skills, and in some cases whole manufacturing equipment were moved off shore. What happened to the American military is almost a secondary effect when you truly understand just how much this [family blogged] your country.
Thank you, Glen, that’s a clarifying chart.
Robert Pape also has a substack. For those who don’t care for the videos.
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/
Thanks for that– I, for one, rarely watch videos and will never listen to podcasts: if there’s no transcript, I usually skip the material entirely.
Same here. Lifelong preference for text over audio/video, which limits info-gathering options but, at least for me, saves ginormous time … even if the A/V is sped up. Transcripts help considerably, as do detailed summaries such as I find here.
Professor Marandi has been recommending the book Going to Tehran for western readers who want to understand that country and its motivations and the historical backdrop leading to this point. It was written in 2013 by two former US administration officials. I’m about a quarter of the way into it. Well worth a read in my opinion.
Great work Nat, thank you very much.
NC has really grown in stature recently. A few years back it was my little secret source of information and now a ton of people, intelligent and honest people, are lifting it up.
Thank you Yves and your fantastic Team!
Here we go:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/spirit-airlines-could-liquidate-as-early-as-this-week-sources-say.html
(Prediction: it happens Friday after market close. Anyone with tickets on Spirit after Friday should prepare for the worst.)
When I die and they lay me to rest
Gonna go to the place that’s the best
When I lay me down to die
I’m off to see the Judge and the shareholders get fried
Chorus:
Goin’ up like Spirit in the sky
To bankruptcy court where equity dies (equity dies!)
When corporate citizens die and they lay ’em to rest
You’re gonna go to that place shareholders detest
Prepare yourself, you know it’s a must
Gonna have a liquidation
So you know that when you die
Your business gets rightsized while the shareholders get fried
[Chorus]
[Musical Interlude]
I’m a Wall Street sinner, my balance sheet sinned
I’ve got a friend in USC Chapter Eleven
So you know that when I die
The judge’ll fix me up so like Spirit I’ll still fly
Oh goin’ up in smoke like Spirit in the sky
To bankruptcy court where equity dies (equity dies)
When I die and they lay me to rest
I’m gonna go to that place you’ll detest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRFo72wuU6w
lol
Thanks, Nat! Off to a great start* – I continue to look forward to the NC Iran Post (NCIP) as my first internet stop of the day!
*not that I had any concerns, I was sure Yves was leaving the NCIP in good hands.
Thanks, Nat.
Former Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and his wife dead in murder-suicide
https://wjla.com/news/local/murder-suicide-man-woman-dead-annandale-home-fairfax-county-virginia-crime-gun-violence-investigation-domestic-fight-guinevere-drive-victims-fcp-police-officers
Trump Yanks Millions From Catholic Charities Amid Pope Feud
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-yanks-millions-from-catholic-charities-amid-pope-feud/
Pope: World is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/16/pope-world-being-ravaged-by-handful-of-tyrants/
Europe has ‘maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left,’ energy agency head says
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/europe-maybe-6-weeks-jet-fuel-left-energy-agency-head-says-rcna332122
Iran bypasses US blockade via offshore oil networks
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-shifts-20m-barrels-through-dark-offshore-oil-network-bypassing-us-port-blockade-firm-says
Increased air traffic over Afghanistan, due to war in Iran, generates $1.4 million per week due to Taliban transit fees, despite lack of flight safety measures
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/global-trade/taliban-collect-overflight-fee-also-from-swiss-passengers/91264698
Nord Stream blasts due to war, say insurers seeking to avoid pay out
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-blasts-due-war-say-insurers-seeking-avoid-pay-out-2026-04-16/
Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun refuses to speak with Israeli PM Nentanyahu
Israel/Palestine
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rk900vic2bg
US forces ready to restart combat if Iran doesn’t agree deal, says Hegseth
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-ready-restart-combat-if-iran-doesnt-agree-deal-says-hegseth-2026-04-16/
Thanks Ann! These links give me a great headstart on tomorrow’s post.
WRT Aoun in Lebanon, just makes you wonder who exactly this “Lebanese govt” that Israel has been talking to is, doesn’t it?
The Sunnis will talk. But not the other factions.
Almost four years in and Reuters is still wondering who could have blasted Nordstream and saying no state has claimed responsibility, except that they more or less have.
I have a bit of a pet peeve on the troops issue. People are throwing around these numbers, 6000 troops in the Bush carrier group, 4200 on the Boxer amphibious group, 50,000 already in the region. Just to make it clear, very, very few of these are combat troops. Bush carrier group, zero combat troops, Boxer amphibious group, more like 1000 combat troops (a reinforced Marine battalion), those 50,000 troops in the region, close to zero combat troops.
The only real combat troops in the region or heading there are the two Marine Expeditionary Units (11th and 31st), each with about a 1000 combat troops, and the fast response brigade from the 82nd Airborne with 3000 or so troops. So the total ground combat element is 5000 troops (give or take a few). I know that Prof. Pape and others are talking up the ground invasion of Iran, but I am not seeing Pentagon moving any of its infantry or armoured assets into the region. These have to be moved by ship and would take months to stage into the region.
So unless these assets are moved there is no ground invasion. I can see a lot of C-17s flying back and forth, these are likely bringing ammo in and evacuating unnecessary personnel out. Yes, they can move troops, but not a meaningful amount, especially if heavy equipment is involved (tanks, APCs, artillery), which it would have to be to support ground invasion.
So what sort of troops are these other however many thousand? What can they do?
File invoices 24/7 to order moar weapons for you-know-who.
These come from bases in the region, most of which have substantial number of aircraft. So we have maintenance and logistics personnel, air defense units, air crews, ship crews. Each plane we deploy requires something like 20 ground personnel, for example, mechanics, truck drivers, etc.
These troops have no combat training and equipment. You may give them guns and throw them into the battle if the base itself is under attack, but you are not going to send them into ground combat in Iran.
So talking about the total number of troops, when these involve aircraft mechanics, clerks and ship’s sailors, as if these can be deployed into combat is misleading.
About what I guessed. Thanks!
> So talking about the total number of troops, when these involve aircraft mechanics, clerks and ship’s sailors, as if these can be deployed into combat is misleading.
Misleading as an expression of “tip of the spear” combat power; paradoxically, in the current kinetic environment, most of these personnel are at risk of injury or death from Iranian strikes. The “50,000 in theatre” number could be thought of as a metric of vulnerability. Perhaps awareness of this vulnerability played a role in US pre-emption of the expected Iranian counterstrikes in response to the first Israeli strikes.
I was specifically speaking in the context of the ground invasion, as discussed by Prof. Pape for example. His contention is that the ground invasion is the next escalation step, that movement of additional troops and assets into the region is pointing in that direction.
My reading is that the movement is not indicative of ground invasion because it doesn’t involve combat troops. It’s a resupply operation, for example replacing departing Ford CSG with Bush CSG and evacuating the personnel hiding in hotels after their bases were destroyed.
A renewed air bombing campaign is more likely than a ground invasion, according to many/most analysts.
You will definitely will be moving special ops units and other small, specialized units into the region with the C5s and C17s, and some specific heavy equipment, but most bulk stuff will be transported via ordinary shipping– think FedEx vs post office. Not much ammunition will be flown in unless it’s a critical shipment, nor heavy equipment unless it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight. I’m sure that a lot of equipment and materials being utilized today are drawn from prepositioned inventories in the region.
I’m not really sure of the ratio of trigger-pullers to support, but obviously a lot more personnel than a few Marine or Army units are in or will soon find themselves in harm’s way. And yeah, no way in hell have we yet seen the movement of enough assets to support even a limited ground invasion, except for that of maybe a small island.
“Nuclear dust” feels like it’s being repeated, so I suspect they are going to try a repeat of the failed operation much like Larry Johnson predicts then have Trump hold up green dust on tv. They might even roll out “shock and awe.”
Trump has gone 18 days without golfing. His previous record is 20 days, so something is up.
He’s too busy going to UFC fights to golf.
Pape is very strong in his areas of expertise but isn’t especially savvy for analysis of current affairs. Or rather he has some blindspots. He did a riff on the need for Americans to elect centrist politicians the other day that had me facepalming.
Yeah I agree with this.
Also I heard him regurgitate some mainstream media lies about Russia/Ukraine and I realized this guy has some huge blindspots and I decided not to pay much attention to him.
Same with Krystal and Saagar. Although they do a good job, I hear Krystal say things like “Putin is a thug” and I facepalm. The brainwashing propaganda operation in the United States is staggeringly powerful.
IMHO Putin is the greatest leader of any major power in the world. Not just now, not just in the last 20 years, but in the last 200 years. I would have to go all the way back to George Washington before I find another guy that I think is better than Putin.
Oh, I don’t doubt that Putin is a “thug,” but a certain amount of thuggishness beneath a genteel exterior is a requirement for any successful politician, imho. The topic came up in an exchange avout the film Gabriel over the White House, but the more I read about FDR, the more I’m convinced that the man had a heart of a brutal fascist thug, but he could also keep the exterior of a well meaning gentleman while keeping his less than nice deeds generally hidden–except for those Japanese Americans, but nobody cared about them back then.
The use of the word “thug” is highly emotive and prejudicial. A more neutral and appropriate term might be ruthless as I have little doubt that Putin has a ruthless streak.
Thus: “… I don’t doubt that Putin is “ruthless,” but a certain amount of ruthlessness beneath a genteel exterior is a requirement for any successful politician….”
No, I really did mean “thug,” with its emotive connotations. I would not want to be in a dark place with either Putin or FDR, which would not be the case with merely “ruthless” people.
De Gaulle?
De Gaulle was probably France’s last great, independent leader but he would be disqualified by Algeria.
I’d add Fidel Castro and Thomas Sankara to the list
The entire US Army probably doesn’t have enough combat troops and deploying what is available will take a lot more than just planes.
Proper armies have a lot of heavy equipment and need a lot of supplies. All the transport planes in USAF won’t be able to deliver them. The only “ground invasions” practical are raids and they are only good for propaganda.
For reference, the Memory Hole says:
1991 Desert Storm = 660,00
2003 Iraqi Freedom = 125,000-160,000
—
tiktok for 2003 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-usa-pullout/timeline-invasion-surge-withdrawal-u-s-forces-in-iraq-idUSTRE7BE0EL20111215/
https://www.vfw.org/media-and-events/latest-releases/archives/2023/3/20-years-later-recalling-the-us-invasion-of-iraq
… note here is the lie which underpins the supposedly intelligent people who have not met the reality of how strong Iran is:
^^^ paging Curtis LeMay, General Curtis LeMay, your ghost still haunts us ^^^
—
tiktok 1990-91 https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/0101chrono/
note this very funny line:
—
sidebar:
have i stroked out???? am i in the Evil Spock universe????
official publication of the Council on Foreign Relations, less than a month ago, tosses this turd on the table? Raining frogs and dogs and cats sleeping together…
https://www.cfr.org/articles/remembering-operation-iraqi-freedom
Thx Nat
Great to see you killing it at NC and also adding your unique perspective at Ian’s
Both part of my daily alt media info-system
Thanks and keep an eye out for NatWilsonTurner.com on Substack. I’m posting my archives there now and will start busting out pieces on the days I’m not writing for Yves or Ian after this run of Iran War posts is done. Also going (back) to YouTube.
Yay! I’ll be checking that out for sure.
Trump says Israel and Lebanon leaders to hold talks after first high-level meeting in decades
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/16/trump-israel-lebanon-talks-hezbollah-ceasefire-conflict.html
IDF uncovers Hezbollah arsenal stashed inside southern Lebanon school
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-idf-uncovers-hezbollah-arsenal-stashed-inside-southern-lebanon-school
Hopes for deal to end Iran war grow, but nuclear issues unresolved
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hopes-middle-east-peace-grow-israel-discusses-lebanon-ceasefire-2026-04-16/
Trump says Lebanese and Israeli leaders to speak, Pakistan says Lebanon peace essential
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-lebanese-israeli-leaders-will-speak-2026-04-16/
Killing of Iranian activist in Canada exposes increasingly bitter divisions within the diaspora
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-activists-diaspora-threats-pahlavi-6695108da3cdfca9ede2f75e085995d0
Pakistani army chief visits Tehran in hopes for renewed talks between US and Iran
https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-lebanon-israel-talks-pakistan-hormuz-16-april-2026-297a8d2bb94add26e503a4ef3a5d1151
US war on Iran was a ‘mistake’ says UK chancellor Rachel Reeves
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5110n2l3mo
China issues US safety alert for citizens citing ‘malicious questioning’ by US border officers
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-issues-us-safety-alert-citizens-citing-malicious-questioning-by-us-border-2026-04-16/
Next Trade war between China and US |• Indonesia controls 60.2% of global nickel production and has cut its 2026 mining quota to 30% |• The impact spans jet engines, stainless steel, EV batteries, and defense supply chains
https://www.ebc.com/forex/one-country-60-of-global-nickel-and-a-30-cut-the-shockwave-hitting-defense-evs-and-global-economy
[Canada is fourth in nickel exports to the world, and can ramp up. I lived in Thompson, Manitoba for four years. Its only reason to exist is that it is an INCO nickel mining town. Nothing but muskeg up there. And blackflies. I saw -60 degrees F up there and I never want to see it again.]
Iran says nuclear enrichment rights non negotiable under international law
https://www.newsonair.gov.in/iran-says-nuclear-enrichment-rights-non-negotiable-under-international-law/
Australia refinery fire worsens fuel supply crunch amid Iran war
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/significant-fire-breaks-out-viva-energys-refinery-australia-authorities-say-2026-04-15/
US to end Russia, Iran oil sanctions waivers amid Hormuz blockade — and that would mean trouble for India
https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-to-end-russia-iran-oil-sanctions-waivers-amid-hormuz-blockade-and-that-would-mean-trouble-for-india-14001004.html
Kim Jong-un references ‘one-China’ principle for first time, signaling deepening ties with Beijing
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-04-14/national/northKorea/Kim-Jongun-references-oneChina-principle-for-first-time-signaling-deepening-ties-with-Beijing/2568443
More great ones. Congrats on surviving and escaping Thompson, Manitoba!
Thanks, Nat. It was close, but I got out of there. I’m glad to see you posting here and at Ian’s site. I’ve been following Ian from long ago when he and Stirling Newbury were at FireDogLake, before Stirling’s stroke. Keep up the good work.
There you go. Turns out Rachel Reeves is in fact a very sophisticated political thinker.
Miaow! Saucer of milk for table one.
Thanks Nat, great roundup. As to whether there’s value in chronicling Democratic impotence – I actually think there is. We know the Dems have most every reason (Zionist money and influence) to be as bellicose towards Iran as the present regime does – so any shift from that baseline, any movement towards where the American public lives seems to me newsworthy, even if it proves ephemeral. Personally I find the horse-race coverage more meaningful than reporting on the seemingly illusory goings on of Mr. Market – which is not to denigrate that reporting which is deeply valuable to others, it’s just another prism through which to observe current events.
Admittedly I also like the Democrat(death watch, deshabille, suck) reports in a gallows humor entertainment sort of way.
Re: gallows humor
The supply of Democrat suckage is very likely quasi-infinite, unless or until the DNC gets decapitated.
Democrats are sovereign in their own cuckoldry. MMT, modern moral theory.
“Cuckold” is not an entirely unfair analogy, but let us not forget that the democrats are paid to play a very specific role. It is their job to make sure nothing changes much during periods when the republicans have been thrown out for going too far. Democrats are well compensated for being the pawl in the Overton window ratchet.
I think “submissive whores” is more precise than “cuckolds.”
Welcome to the Iran War beat, Nat.
I thought of you when this started because a few weeks prior, we had a brief exchange regarding your Interregnum of Unreality. I mean, if there was one specific crisis that could put an end to it…
Interreign or not, Trump was determined to, erm, reign down on that parade.
So be it.
We’re really seeing the Empire of Lies exercising all its tools of illusion right now. The manipulations in the oil market might be a breaking point. As will any ground attack on Iran.
What happens after the battle of Thermonuclearopylae If its a limited exchange of atoms?
Honor to those who defended and guarded it, fool’s errand though that may have been. . . Joseph Brodsky made us memorize that poem my freshman year in Ann Arbor.
Reporterfy’s real name is Alex White.
Thanks!
Given that the Israelis are openly stating that Turkey is next in their crosshairs, I don´t they they can do much but prepare–and not just defensively. Yesterday, it was announced that Turkey has a powerful and capable new missile (the Tayfun Block-4). And I see this from Koryboko this morning. He’s sometimes a little bit full of himself, but can help one connect the dots:
https://open.substack.com/pub/korybko/p/turkiyes-planned-revival-of-the-hejaz?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=835783&post_id=194370548&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3j63v&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo1OTMzMjI3LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxOTQzNzA1NDgsImlhdCI6MTc3NjMxMTYyNywiZXhwIjoxNzc4OTAzNjI3LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItODM1NzgzIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.8NGmOdCft3KfQ-IJ3_nQUChfCCZxX5N8XRHYB9eF6rg
In re: some of these other podcasters, this tabloid titles that they use to draw viewers sometimes make me crazy. And Ball and Saagar are so good when they analyze, so bad when they’re sticking out their tongues and seizing on the salacious bits. . . particularly Ball. I wish she’d move to some more serious-toned platform. Maybe I’m just old fashioned?
They’re on the big time career track. So no % in doing more serious work.
I second Nat’s recommendation on the Wilkerson interview above where he talks extensively about China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Well worth listening to that one in full.
If there is an overarching US strategy to all of the current conflicts, and I think there is whether the Donald is personally aware of it or not, it’s about putting a stop to China’s plan. Obama famously announced his ‘pivot to Asia’ at about the same time China officially announced the BRI. The same slimy neocons who supported the ‘pivot’ then are still wriggling around in the Swamp now, hoping you’ll focus on Trump’s public insanity and not notice them just below the surface blowing fetid bubbles.
In addition to PRC Belt Road, there is Russian North South Corridor in Iran.
There are also big PRC and Russian investments in Iran’s energy/ petroleum infrastructure.
Chabahar harbor has a number of Indian investments to link to BRI, etc.
Wilkerson, in his talk with Danny Haiphong, refers very favourably to an opinion piece about the U.S. by a female author that appeared in The Guardian – I think it is the one by Rebecca Solnit but am not sure:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/12/united-states-trump-destruction
Ambassador Chas Freeman with CGTN on the ceasefire talks along with a bit of Trump’s China policy
It feels like CGTN rarely releases a nice long form discussion like this and as usual, the Ambassador has good insights. It’s too bad we don’t have active diplomats like this in charge today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ_tjqwbjkY
Amb. Freeman is another favorite. What is it with these 80something Silents shaming the Boomers and Gen Xers?
I remember an article I had a printout of a couple of decades ago about a marked divide in the values of the hippies. It stood out because it matched my parents’ ages, but despite outward similarities, there was a stark divide as the hippies moved from “Peace and Love” to “Free Love and Dope” and the subsequent reaction right at what is now 80 years old. Not that Shrub was a hippie, he still lived in a world shaped by them, and he and Bill Clinton are both 79, part of the “younger” hippie group. Would an 81-year-old Democrat dream of crossing a picket line on a date?
Vietnam made them fellow travelers, but there was a stark gap between the approach to values as a community-based philosophy was replaced by more of a libertarian streak. My memory is it made a claim that the anti-AIDs hysteria was partially driven because “free love” was ruined.
Boomer and Gen Xer Democratic elites are puzzled by Mamdani. Mamdani is worried about policy and hasn’t even shopped one script to Hollywood unlike former golden boy Eric Swalwell, the last gasp of Gen X.
Tom Wolfe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_%22Me%22_Decade_and_the_Third_Great_Awakening
Add in Adam Curtis Century of the Self–used to be a topic around here.
The theme is that the hippies turned inwards as they grew older in the 70s.
I have a memory of polling data in an article addressing the Wolfe article showing a sharp divide in attitudes especially among older and younger hippies. It’s not a case of the hippies turning inward as much as the hippies who are now under 80 were always selfish.
If you’re 80-something, you ARE kind of a a Boomer . . . At least, I thought the cohort started right after WWII?
A person born in 1945 is at most 81 today.
Most of the people who had anything interesting to say during the 60s were actually silent generation rather than boomers. Boomers were always a herd.
A few boomers have gained honor in later years, but they are extreme outliers.
Mortgages are paid off
Battle of the beards: Jim Jatras and Kevork Almassian on Syriana Analysis. Live stream just ended
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4B5tSLMMlA
Both beards are very, very good but I think I have to go with Almassian simply because he’s got the hi-def resolution.
White House Shrugs Off Shaky Economy as War Exceeds Trump’s Timeline (NY Times)
hope springs eternal
Each 5 days of this debacle the world is not getting a full day of crude/natural gas supply…..
I estimate we have shunned 9 days supply so far.
No worries, oil is below 100 and S&P at near record levels. Line up some more coke and break out the Champagne! We can prolong the hangover for…
This is what we find:
The hope that springs eternal, springs right up your behind!
Ian Dury and the Blockheads
A Goldman analyst yesterday said he expected prices in Asia to come down later in the year, but that wouldn’t be good news (it will fall due to demand destruction and lower economic activity). The focus was Asia because they are the first to feel the shortage.
Patrick Lawrence has written an article on “The Floutist” which provides a big picture view of where America is in reality that explains why we do stupid things. I suspect for some here the concept is no surprise, but the implications require some thinking of how this has developed over time – since WW2. Recognizing this has been a years-long thought process for me, but the real eye openers have been the ability to view the words of the Israelis spoken in Hebrew on videos translated into English. Real truth apparently is spoken only in Hebrew for these people. Since it is an email I am not sure how I can post the article. Just look for “The Floutist” articles by Patrick Lawrence. The headline speaks for itself.
“‘This war is the result of a coup.’”
The long, steady Zionist takeover in Washington is now complete. There is no longer any flinching from this.
Here is the link.
https://thefloutist.substack.com/p/this-war-is-the-result-of-a-coup
The Zionist perspective
Limor Son Har Melech
@limor_sonhrmelh
Precisely on Holocaust Memorial Day, a day when we commemorate the six million, a statement is heard from Berlin that attempts to once again limit the right of the Jewish people to live in their land.
Holocaust Remembrance Day is a painful reminder that the desire to limit our steps and dictate our fate has not disappeared from the world; it has merely changed form and face. German interference in our historical right to the region of Judea and Samaria – the cradle of our birth – is an attack on our national memory and on the lesson we learned the hard way: we will never again be dependent on the mercy of other peoples for our existence.
And let us never forget that our right to this land is not subject to challenge by any party or leader in the world.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz
@bundeskanzler
Apr 13
I am deeply concerned about developments in the Palestinian territories. In my phone call with Prime Minister @netanyahu , I made it clear: There must be no de facto annexation of the West Bank.
April 14, 2026 · 7:57 AM UTC
https://nitter.poast.org/limor_sonhrmelh/status/2043961900883497187#m
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition:
Hegseth warns US ready to resume fighting ‘with more power than ever’ if Tehran spurns deal
Hegseth compared members of the media to the “Pharisees” of the Christian gospels who condemn Jesus for healing a man on the Sabbath.
Hegseth, in his own take on the passage, said, “You see, the Pharisees, the so-called and self-appointed elites of their time, they were there to witness, to write everything down, to report. But their hearts were hardened. Even though they witnessed a literal miracle, it didn’t matter.”
…
I wish I were buried with rulers who filled their graves with gold and silver.
Why wasn’t I a child who died at birth and was put in the ground?
I wish I had been buried like a baby who never saw the light of day.
There the wicked stop causing trouble, and the weary find rest.
Even prisoners find relief there; they no longer hear their guards shouting at them.
Everyone—from the greatest to the least important—will be there, and even the slave is free from his master.
[Sorry– added text for comic-relief)
Along the lines of Scott Ritter’s opinion of Hegseth: he is the most unqualified, uninformed and incompetent Sec. of Defense in US history. And that says a a lot. It is clear that Orange Jesus is mentally ill, but what’s up with this Hegseth dude?
Pulpit Fiction
That needs a Coffee Warning. If I had a nickel (pre ’64) for every one of those…
Why, I’d have a buncha pre-64 nickels!
They’re all getting into the religious angle. Are Hegseth, Vance and Trump going to form their own church?
there are a lot of good tax benefits to forming a church!
The Church of Big Butter Jesus:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Mf2u9VWAhM
Finland’s President says he’s most ‘pro-American’ European leader amid Trump criticism of allies
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/finlands-stubb-says-hes-the-most-pro-american-president-in-europe/
Israeli military says more than 1,500 Canadians were serving in its ranks last year
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/israeli-military-says-more-than-1500-canadians-were-serving-in-its-ranks-last-year/
[Shame! Shame!]
Spain imports record amount of Russian gas
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/spain-imports-record-amount-of-russian-gas-1776346138.html
U.S. Navy stopped 13 ships from passing Iranian port blockade, Pentagon says
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/16/trump-iran-war-hormuz-strait-blockade.html
Trump says Israel and Lebanon’s leaders will speak on Thursday
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/trump-says-israel-and-lebanons-leaders-will-speak-on-thursday
Bomb threat at home of Pope Leo’s brother
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5833902-pope-leo-brother-louis-prevost-bomb-threat/
‘You Are Out of Touch’: Schumer Faces New Calls to Step Aside After Israel Weapons Vote
https://www.commondreams.org/news/chuck-schumer-step-aside
Israeli triple-tap strike kills three paramedics in Lebanon, officials say
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgqkkxd09e2o
Japan offers $10 billion support to help Asian neighbours secure oil
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-plans-10-billion-framework-help-asia-secure-oil-2026-04-15/
Vance calls end of Ukraine aid ‘one of the proudest’ achievements of Trump administration
https://kyivindependent.com/vance-calls-ending-ukraine-aid-one-of-the-proudest-achievements-of-trump-admin/
The American Experiment Has Been Infected by Oligarchs
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/us-federal-tax-system-progressive-oligarchy-rich-capital-unrealized-gains-wealth-inheritance-dynasty/
Trump Reports More to Netanyahu Than to the US on Iran War, Lawmaker Says
https://truthout.org/articles/trump-reports-more-to-netanyahu-than-to-the-us-on-iran-war-lawmaker-says/
Where the DOGE Operatives Are Now
https://www.wired.com/story/where-the-doge-operatives-are-now/
Thomson Reuters Shareholders Demand Investigation into ICE Contracts | The shareholders explicitly cited multiple 404 Media investigations, including one that showed Thomson Reuters’ CLEAR is integrated with a tool ICE uses to find neighborhoods to target.
https://www.404media.co/thomson-reuters-shareholders-demand-investigation-into-ice-contracts/
NATO Allies Pledge $60 Billion in Military Aid to Ukraine for 2026
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/74017
Russia Agrees to Pay Damages for Azerbaijan Plane Crash That Killed 38
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/15/russia-agrees-to-pay-damages-for-azerbaijan-plane-crash-that-killed-38-a92509
Archbishop of Canterbury expresses solidarity with Pope Leo XIV in calling for peace in Iran
https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/archbishop-canterbury-expresses-solidarity-pope-leo-xiv-calling-132100022
Polish MP sparks outrage by displaying Israeli flag with swastika
https://tvpworld.com/92627640/outrage-after-polish-mp-berkowicz-unfurls-israeli-flag-with-swastika
Irans imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate in critical condition after heart attack – The Tribune
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/irans-imprisoned-nobel-peace-prize-laureate-in-critical-condition-after-heart-attack/
Russia Plans to Trigger “Space Pearl Harbor” With Nuclear Anti-Satellite Weapons, US General Warns
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-plans-to-trigger-space-pearl-harbor-with-nuclear-anti-satellite-weapons-us-general-warns-17957
US-sanctioned supertankers enter Gulf despite blockade
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-sanctioned-supertankers-enter-gulf-despite-blockade-2026-04-16/
Lufthansa Shuts Down CityLine: Regional Brand To Vanish Within Days
https://simpleflying.com/lufthansa-cityline-suspension/
‘Archbishop of Canterbury expresses solidarity with Pope Leo XIV in calling for peace in Iran’
The UK’s king, who is Supreme Governor of the Church of England, is due to make a state visit to the USA this month. Will Trump refrain from attacking the Archbishop over her heresy? Or demand that Charlie reigns her inn?
Why would anyone pay any attention whatsoever to Stubb? He’s associated with the epic own-goal of a country which just abandoned 80 years of successful neutrality in order to join a dying alliance.
Update from Israel: I was on a call with several when the ceasefire with Lebanon was announced today. One was concerned that it was too soon to make a deal with Lebanon. Another said they were ready for peace to break out. Both said the situation there has been very tense since the weekend. I’ll have a more in depth report later this week – very dynamic time/situation “behind the scenes” at a lot of levels I think, but there is some hope this could be the beginning of a calm phase before the war inevitably resumes again. Everyone is confused by Trump is really the only constant across everyone I speak to.
On the Lebanon ceasefire, see the Israeli center-right mainstream media for a bit of dark humor:
Report: PM tells ministers, shocked to learn of Lebanon truce from media, that he agreed to it at Trump’s request, declines to hold security cabinet vote | Times of Israel
A hot war April night fell on the internet
I’m gonna find my Jesus yet
I need you to soothe my head
Turn my instincts inward instead
Doctor Doctor, gimme the news I got a
Bad case of dread too
No poisoned pill post-pm post is gonna cure my ill I’ve got a
Bad case of dreading you
An about face don’t make no Jesus part
I learned that buddy from the start
You think we’re stupid, a little bit gullible
Imaginary manna ain’t all that negotiable
Doctor Doctor, gimme the news I got a
Bad case of losing hegemony too
No poisoned pill post-pm post is gonna cure my ill I’ve got a
Bad case of dreading you
I know you like it, you like it up top
Tell me Donald, are you gonna stop?
You had me down thirty to zip
Payment of Judas on your lip
Shake my fist, knock on wood
I’ve got it bad, and I got it good
Doctor Doctor, gimme the news I got a
Bad case of being horribly lied to too
No poisoned pill post-pm post is gonna cure my ill I’ve got a
Bad case of dreading you
Bad Case of Loving You (Doctor, Doctor), by Robert Palmer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87hAnSXfMRQ&list=RD87hAnSXfMRQ
Trump posts a trocial:
I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel. These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST. On Tuesday, the two Countries met for the first time in 34 years here in Washington, D.C., with our Great Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. I have directed Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, together with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Razin’ Caine, to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a Lasting PEACE. It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let’s, GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMP
I think Hezbollah has a say.
So I guess we’ll see
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20dd5ynxz9t?post=asset%3Ae102ba42-2d15-4b8e-9968-ae0191d8d731#post
Wonder how FIFA feels about their peace prize winner
Also, are we really up to 10 now? When did we even reach 9?
From October last year, BBC:
His latest addition to his list of wars “ended” is the two-year conflict between Israel and Hamas.
The other seven were between Israel and Iran, Pakistan and India, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand and Cambodia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Serbia and Kosovo.
I don’t know about the ninth, or is it holy base 9 arithmetic (8+1=10)?
It’s a sticky dog, that much is certain…
SCOTUS Justice, 77, Goes on Unhinged Rant About ‘Intellectuals’
https://www.thedailybeast.com/scotus-justice-clarence-thomas-77-goes-on-unhinged-rant-about-intellectuals/
Millions of Americans are now eligible for Canadian citizenship and many are applying ‘just in case’
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/travel/canadian-citizenship-by-descent-americans
One Million Sign Record-Breaking Petition to End EU Trade Deal With Israel
https://novaramedia.com/2026/04/16/one-million-sign-record-breaking-petition-to-end-eu-trade-deal-with-israel/
U.S. set to launch tariff refund system on April 20
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/us-set-launch-tariff-refund-system-april-20-rcna332018
Italy’s Meloni halts defense pact with Israel
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-halts-renewal-defense-pact-israel/
Cuba ‘ready’ for possible US attack: president
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260416-cuba-ready-for-possible-us-attack-president
US military: ‘locked and loaded’ to strike Iran’s power plants, energy industry if ordered
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-ready-restart-combat-if-iran-doesnt-agree-deal-says-hegseth-2026-04-16/
Pentagon approaches automakers, manufacturers to boost weapons production, WSJ reports
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/pentagon-approaches-automakers-manufacturers-boost-weapons-production-wsj-2026-04-16/
Stephen Miller Threatens Horrifying Timeline for Trump’s War
https://www.thedailybeast.com/stephen-miller-threatens-horrifying-timeline-for-trumps-war/
Google Just Patented The End Of Your Website
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joetoscano1/2026/03/06/google-just-patented-the-end-of-your-website/
Greene says Trump told her ‘if my son were to get killed, it would be my fault’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5834365-greene-trump-feud-rhetoric-death-threats/
I was just watching CNN during quick lunch.
What on earth did Trump do to his eyebrows? Neither here nor there, other than his end-of – days eccentric old guy manifestations?
Glad he doesn’t hold the future of Life On Earth in his sclerotic bronzed hands.
Brief press exchange re: Peace Talks… he says maybe over the Weekend. he wil certainly be at peace on his Links. And looking more facially farcical than ever
https://youtu.be/4CzhMQE7Q3Y 4.16.2026
Some links about time….negotiations, food supply and crude sales. And the US is selling its crude and diesel to foreign buyers…it may come to regret that.
US-Iran Deal Will Take Months, Gulf and Europe Officials Say
This Bloomberg article is anonymously sourced though it quotes a former British Ambassador to Iran who also sees a long and challenging process, particularly related to Hormouz.
“Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials from the regions familiar with the matter.”
“The leaders want the vital Strait of Hormuz opened immediately to restore energy flows and are warning in private that a global food crisis may develop if that doesn’t happen by next month, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks.”
Asia Relying on US Crude to Replace Middle East Supply
US Diesel Traders Turn to Rail as War Scrambles Fuel Flows
Traders are shipping distillate fuel to new or more distant US locations in order to meet demand in export markets.
U.S. Navy Seeks Over 600 Surface-to-Air Missiles in Budget Request
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/04/u-s-navy-seeks-over-600-surface-to-air-missiles-in-budget-request/
Ex-Donald Trump backer makes a wild claim about his marriage: ‘Melania despises Trump’
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2026/04/ex-donald-trump-backer-makes-a-wild-claim-about-his-marriage-melania-despises-trump.html
Jan. 6 cops beaten by rioters say ‘history will record this betrayal’ after Trump’s DOJ erases convictions for treason
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jan-6-police-trump-pardons-b2959116.html
Trump has no plan to cut the $39 trillion national debt, but he does want to cut child care. His budget director is scrambling to clarify
https://fortune.com/2026/04/16/trump-national-debt-child-care-cuts-military-spending-russell-vought/
“It’s Not Working”: Diplomats Fear Trump’s Iran Envoys Are Making Things Worse
https://time.com/article/2026/04/15/diplomats-fear-trump-iran-envoys-kushner-witkoff-nuclear/
Stephen Miller warns that Iran war could continue ‘indefinitely’
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/stephen-miller-iran-war-indefinitely-b2959001.html
Pentagon Pete Blasts ‘Despicable’ Video of Trump Falling Into Hell
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-pete-blasts-despicable-video-of-trump-falling-into-hell/
Trump denies involvement in Orbán’s failed re-election bid, despite his involvement
https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-denies-involvement-in-orbans-failed-re-election-bid-despite-his-involvement
US aircraft carrier breaks record for longest deployment since the Vietnam War
https://apnews.com/article/aircraft-carrier-uss-gerald-r-ford-record-deployment-4144a52a981e5aa079326123686f2497
Pete Hegseth Directly Compares Trump to Jesus Amid AI Post Scandal
https://newrepublic.com/post/209140/pete-hegseth-compares-donald-trump-jesus-ai-post-iran
Trump blew his chance to get a deal and now his enemies smell blood
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-blew-chance-get-iran-deal-enemies-smell-blood-4356435
Reports of a MAGA civil war over Iran are greatly exaggerated Loud feuds among right-wing figures mask a base that still largely falls in line
https://www.salon.com/2026/04/16/reports-of-a-maga-civil-war-over-iran-are-greatly-exaggerated/
Most voters blame Trump for gas price hikes, oppose Iran war, according to new Quinnipiac Poll
https://www.ctinsider.com/connecticut/article/trump-gas-prices-war-iran-quinnipiac-poll-ct-22208123.php
Oh Look, The MAGA FTC Built The Censorship Industrial Complex It Was Screaming About
https://www.techdirt.com/2026/04/16/oh-look-the-maga-ftc-built-the-censorship-industrial-complex-it-was-screaming-about/
Judge limits White House to ‘below-ground construction’ of ballroom
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5834551-judge-white-house-ballroom-trump-underground-construction/
Trump Admin Lawyer Applies To Be Law School Dean, Suggests It Might Help Investigations Go Away | Nice law school you’ve got there… shame if anything happened to it.
https://abovethelaw.com/2026/04/trump-admin-lawyer-applies-to-be-law-school-dean-suggests-it-might-help-investigations-go-away/
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani says Iran war is worsening a cost of living crisis
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/new-york-city-mayor-zohran-mamdani-iran-war-worsening-cost-of-living-rcna332002
There’s a moral vacuum at the core of JD Vance
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/moral-vacuum-core-jd-vance-78wnfq5bl
Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade may have made the US military draft illegal
https://www.rawstory.com/military-draft/
Trump official says separation of church & state is America’s “biggest lie”. The Religious Liberty Commission he chairs is almost exclusively made up of Christians.
https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/04/official-says-separation-of-church-state-is-americas-biggest-lie/
Nat, thanks for posting the Iran war updates. As always, I really like your conversational style.
Is THIS Trump’s Only Way Out Iran War? – w/. Trita Parsi [25:16]
Here.
From a day ago, Trita Parsi’s characteristically erudite take on the current situation with the Iran war. (It’s also available in his latest Substack post available in full here.)
Parsi basically says Trump could walk away at this point and claim whatever victory, tethered or not to reality, that he wants while “[t]he window now open offers Tehran a chance to convert battlefield leverage into lasting strategic gain” in the form of “sweeping sanctions relief.” In the video, he makes the observation that Trump has never been in favor of sanctions: “Sanctions in his mind is the opposite of tariffs. They actually strike at US businesses more than they strike at the other side.”
Sanctions are there to hurt/cripple Iran. Bibi wants that not to end. The US will not lift sanctions. That would be considered a defeat. Israel will not allow sanctions to end.
A swabbie’s dinner aboard the USS Tripoli vs. USS Abraham Lincoln
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/182093
Looks pretty dire. Rationing and declining morale.
Meanwhile, Dr. Orange Stable Jesus is doing PR stunts with DoorDash and giant sacks of grub from Mickey Ds.
What could go wrong?
Oh my!
I guess with the likes of Stable Jesus and Death-seth in charge, “an army travels on its stomach” has been replaced with “hunger makes the world move”.
Mutiny on the Tripoli? (Thry even got a ship with a rhymy name…)
Ceasefire violations reported as Israeli artillery shelling, aerial surveillance persist
I’ll bet any reasonable amount of money that unless US does something really serious–like shooting down some offending IDF jets–the so called ceasefire in Lebanon will never hold, and if US does nothing, I also have a strong enough suspicion that we’ll see a civil war break out again in Lebanon.
Half-Full Tanker Heading to Japan Highlights Scramble for Oil
https://gcaptain.com/half-full-tanker-heading-to-japan-highlights-scramble-for-oil/
Could this be a way to make an end-run around the USian blockade? What’s to stop a tanker bound for one destination to transfer oil to another one that would have been subject to the blockade?
Media War
Trump Says He’ll Have ‘a Pretty Good Answer’ Next Week About Series of Scientists Who Recently Disappeared or Died
https://people.com/trump-update-missing-dead-scientists-11951692
Exclusive: US officials tell European countries to expect weapons delivery delays, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-officials-tell-european-countries-expect-weapons-delivery-delays-sources-say-2026-04-16/
It’s No Accident That Trump’s Iran War Steals Money From Healthcare and Education
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/trump-iran-war-money
Donald Trump Suddenly Turns on Zohran Mamdani: ‘Destroying New York’
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-criticizes-zohran-mamdani-new-york-policies-11841539
JD Vance has been at the center of Iran peace talks. Trump is quizzing people on his performance
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/politics/jd-vance-iran-peace-talks
Hegseth invokes Bible to compare reporters to enemies of Jesus
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/hegseth-invokes-bible-to-compare-reporters-to-enemies-of-jesus/89644899007/
Republicans’ Anxiety Over Iran War Grows
https://www.wsj.com/politics/gop-anxiety-iran-war-a6b14e84
As Cuba’s grid fails, solar power becomes a lifeline
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/as-cubas-grid-fails-solar-power-becomes-a-lifeline/
Israel escalates attacks on medics in Lebanon with deadly ‘quadruple tap’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/16/israel-escalates-attacks-on-medics-in-lebanon-with-deadly-quadruple-tap
Trump says he may go to Islamabad if Iran deal reached
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-pledged-not-have-nuclear-weapons-decades-trump-says-2026-04-16/
Trump Says ‘Windmills Put You Out Of Business’ As He Hits Out At UK’s North Sea Policy In Latest Jibe At Starmer
https://www.aol.com/articles/trump-says-windmills-put-business-211248735.html
Trump Starts Making Up Things the Pope Said as He Breaks With Reality
https://newrepublic.com/post/209178/trump-makes-up-what-pope-said-fight
Beshear says Vance forgetting commandments to not worship false idols, tell lies
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5834503-pope-trump-vance-criticism/
As Americans Struggle With Soaring Prices, Trump Says $4 Gas Is ‘Not Very High’
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-high-gas-prices
Vance’s Iran and Orbán setbacks raise questions about his standing with Trump
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/16/vance-trump-iran-orban-rubio.html
Trump’s Lebanon ceasefire takes Israel by surprise
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje4pn575jgo
Trump Floats Ominous ‘2 Or 3’ Supreme Court Shake-Up Prediction
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-supreme-court-two-or-three-nominations_n_69e07376e4b05c8319ceb9b3
‘Betrayal’: Israeli Opposition, Local Leaders Slam U.S.-brokered Cease-fire in Lebanon
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-04-17
The Blockheaded Thinking Behind Trump’s Plan for a Hormuz Blockade
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/trump-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-iran-war/
US military will target Iran-linked ships worldwide, broadening scope beyond blockade
More support for Richard Medhurst‘s thesis that the US has become a “pirate state”.
Anecdata…
Went to my local motorcycle store today to buy some inner tubes. (Local store is part of a large national chain.) I live in the Portland, Oregon metro area.
Was talking to the store manager, as he rang up my purchase, about stocking up on consumables given the way things were going.
He mentioned they had received a corporate email that morning saying that all Mobile-1 products would no longer be available. Email said Mobil-1 products depend on additives that are single sourced from a plant in the Middle East that was destroyed. No estimate on when any Mobil-1 products will reappear.
Also – Saw #2 Diesel at over $6.29/gallon in Tucson. I remember most regular was for sale between $4.29 and $5.39 on the trip.