[Today’s Iran war post again launched before complete. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
We must confess to having to put articles together too quickly to think through some things as hard as we should. But upon reflection, the timeline presented by Trump in his Truth Social posts and media statements about his plan to launch an attack on Tuesday that was stayed by the pleas of some key Gulf States does not add up. Instead, an examination supports the idea that the Trump team was and still is planning to re-start the war, not on Tuesday but soon, say over the long holiday weekend. It confirms a possibility we described, that the Gulf States gimmick was to try to calm the melting-down bond markets and create yet another profitable trading opportunity for Trump and his cronies.
That reading supports the view of former military professionals like Larry Wilkerson and Douglas Macgregor, who see Trump as set to attack. We will also showcase a key detail from Scott Ritter, that it is not operationally possible to have the military set to go and then turn that off and on as God Emperor Trump pretends he can. The strike packages have to be redone and that takes time.
One bit of less-than-catastrophically-bad news comes from Wilkerson, that the US/Israeli plan is to have a second go at seizing Iran’s uranium. Iran’s threat of a “end the cooperating Gulf States and the world economy” level retaliation was based on the US again hitting Iran’s energy infrastructure and/or civilian targets. This caper would be a narrow objective and not directed at civilians. Iran’s response would then presumably be focused and not involve the destruction of either implicated Gulf State energy infrastructure or desalination plants.
Let us work through the implausible timeline Trump presented and see what it implies.
Recall that Trump had a Situation Room meeting already scheduled for Tuesday, the day he claimed he called off a plan to attack Iran that very day.
That part alone smacks of bogosity. First, market-sensitive Trump seems vanishingly unlikely to rattle investors by launching a campaign early in a market week where results, even if there were miraculously good ones, would not be known for days. Second, Trump was just back from his meeting with Xi. Trump fantasized that Xi might help, say by telling Iran to drop its tollbooth scheme. Trump would need to factor in anything Xi said about Iran (and it seems certain Trump would have brought it up even if Xi declined to engage him).
Consider further that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE would naturally be outside the decision loop. So how could they protest an attack that they did not know was supposedly about to happen?
From the Wall Street Journal in Trump Says Planned Iran Attack On Hold After Gulf Leaders’ Request:
Several Gulf officials from some of the countries Trump mentioned said they were not aware of the imminent plan to attack Iran he described.
The quote above is from the version of that story now up at the Journal. One wonders if it was revised. From Caliber:
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing its sources, several senior officials from Gulf countries have denied coordinating such an initiative or requesting Washington to delay any potential military operation.
The publication reported that sources were not aware of any specific US plans to carry out strikes on Iran during the stated period, nor of any requests to postpone such actions.
The India Today’s account, Gulf states say they had no idea Trump was planning fresh attack on Iran, is consistent with the current text at the Journal, of merely disavowing knowledge of an “imminent” initiative.
On top of that, Big Man Trump claims he received their pleading in person. The New Times quotes Trump at a press briefing:
So I was called by these three countries, plus others, and they’re dealing directly with our people, and right now Iran, and there seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out,” Mr. Trump said. “If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I’d be very happy.
Taking so many calls would take time. When could that possibly have occurred? Keep in mind that Trump was pretty busy making press appearances after he returned from China.
On top of that, Scott Ritter explained long form how attacks can’t be turned off and on as Trump pretends:
From a lightly-cleaned up machine transcript:
Donald Trump’s been trying to spin this apparent defeat into a political victory by trying to achieve at the negotiating table that which he couldn’t achieve at the battlefield by bluffing, bullying, cajoling Iran into somehow surrendering the advantages that they had gained by prevailing um in this 37-day war against the United States and Israel.
Two nuclear armed nations brought to heal by a conventionally armed regional power. Donald Trump has been threatening to to resume the war ever since. Now, what’s curious is that um you know, the statements made by the Trump administration usually come in the form of social media postings but also um the odd public statement all seem to be timed to have an impact on markets….
Just the other day he was threatening to bomb Iran. He said, “You know, I was an hour away from unleashing hell on Iran.” ….
And now he’s saying that he may bomb Iran again. He get timed for the weekend. It could happen Saturday. It could happen Sunday. It could happen Monday. He doesn’t know, but it could happen. He’s going to do it. Uh he’s going to bomb Iran if they don’t cave in and give him that which he couldn’t get at the battlefield….
But now, let’s get back to the war aspect of it. Having done what the president hasn’t done, which is actually plan and execute a winning military campaign, I can tell you the following. You don’t stop a military strike an hour before it goes in without causing a whole bunch of problems.
You know, people need to respect the fact that there are military professionals who are tasked with doing unpleasant jobs. One of those jobs is to carry out attacks against you know targets that have been designated to be struck by the lawful command authority that is the civilian leadership of the United States, the President, Secretary of Defense through the various you know uniformed members of the chain of command in the mil in the in the military central command etc.
When you get a target you need the most updated intelligence on this. So you got to run a lot of intelligence missions and then that has to be factored into mission planning. You’ve got to decide, you know, what the target looks like, what it’s constructed with, how what, you know, effects do you want on the target? How do you plan on destroying it? What munitions are needed? Where do these munitions need to strike? What aircraft carry these munitions? Then how do you get the aircraft from where they are to where they need to be to launch these munitions? And you have to do this hundreds of times to have a strike package. It requires refueling plans.
It requires combat air patrol. I mean, you have to put fighter aircraft up to make sure the enemy doesn’t put fighter aircraft up to shoot down your aircraft as they go in. You need electronic warfare profiles. Again, flying intelligence missions to find out where the enemy air defenses laid out, where their radars are, figure out how to jam them, have a jamming plan. I mean, this is extensive. If you’re using aircraft carriers, how to maneuver the aircraft carrier into place so you can launch the aircraft in position to recover the aircraft all the while while having a screen out there to prevent the aircraft carrier from being attacked by enemy cruise missiles, enemy drones, etc. This is complicated stuff. It takes days to put together a strike package.
And you know, if you if you pull the plug in an hour, you undo everything.
Everything gets reset. Now the president’s saying he’s going to, you know, maybe strike Saturday, Sunday, Monday,It doesn’t work that way.
This president is lying.
Ritter concluded either Trump is never going to attack or he got those pleas from exposed allies earlier than he professed.
Sadly, Douglas Macgregor believes that Trump will go back to war because, like the scorpion in the fable of the scorpion and the frog, it is in his nature.1 Recall that Macgregor worked with Trump as a Pentagon adviser during Trump’s first term.
The entire talk is very much worth a listen, since Macgregor discusses at length how US doctrine and priorities are very much out of date, and how that affects our much-touted military prowess.
From a mildly cleaned up machine transcript:
I don’t see any evidence that they’re about to give this up. You know, the other thing, Gary, that we don’t know, and this is very depressing because we don’t know it is exactly what President Putin and ultimately President Xi said to President Trump in private. I mean, I think whatever they had to say, you know, Putin obviously on the phone and then subsequently in face-to-face meetings with President Xi, they told him there would be quote unquote unspecified consequences if he took the decision to go ahead and restart the war with Iran. Now, I don’t know what that means. I don’t know what Donald Trump’s interpretation of that is.
You know, Trump is the sort of person that doesn’t like to be told anything, least of all being told that he can’t do something. That’s sort of like waving a red flag in front of the bull called Donald Trump.
And Donald Trump is preeminently emotional. He emotes much more than he thinks. He doesn’t take the time to study anything to understand what he’s dealing with, which is one of the reasons we got into this conflict to begin with. He never really understood Iran. If he had even bothered to spend some time reviewing what what the war between Iran and Iraq produced and the fact that the Iranians sustained somewhere between a half a million and 800,000 casualties and roughly 50% of that dead, then he might have had an appreciation for the willingness and readiness of the the Iranians to resist. but he didn’t do that. So, there are a lot of unknowns here.
But, you know, my my bottom line message is if you don’t know what else to do in a fight, eventually you decide to punch somebody in the face and hope for the best. And I still think that’s what we’re going to see Donald Trump do….
I think he goes back in and decides that we’re going to do this one more time.
We’re going to give it everything we have and he’s probably going to say, “I think it’ll work. I hope it works.
I think it works.” You know, “This time we’ll get the right targets. This time we’ll hit them so hard they’ll never recover.” On and on and on.
Larry Wilkerson not only mentioned that the US still seemed to be planning to seize Iran’s enriched uranium but also gave some detail of the questionable state of ground force oversight:
Keep in mind that the last time the US tried removing enriched uranium (600 kg), it was in cooperation with the national government and still took a month.
Twitter is full of nuggets consistent with the notion that the US will strike soon:
Israel’s military is on its highest level of alert for possible US action against Iran in the coming days, Israeli broadcaster Channel 12 reported.
The report said Israel was surprised by President Donald Trump’s announcement that he had delayed a planned attack on Iran and was…
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) May 19, 2026
Israel has entered its highest level of alert since the since the start of the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, as U.S. and Israeli forces have now completed preparations for renewed military action against the Islamic Republic, with combat operations set to potentially resume soon,… pic.twitter.com/ir6pZiqkmL
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 19, 2026
A somewhat dissenting view:
psyop – Israelis want to lure Iran into a first strike scenario – won't happen. https://t.co/kaLc5kfBGM
— — GEROMAN — time will tell – 👀 — (@GeromanAT) May 19, 2026
In the mean time, Iran says it is, and probably really is, much better prepared that it was when the US and Israel launched the war. Professor Marandi discusses Iran’s preparedness for resumption of the war with Nima:
At the top, Marandi takes issue with Trump claim that he honored mere requests from some Gulf States to hold back on launching new strikes. He makes the point that we hoisted from Wilkerson, that the only action that would move Trump was for some of these US allies to deny the US the use of air space and military installations, and make clear they were prepared to back it up with muscle
He argues that Iran is better prepared than ever due to not just the visibility of US movement of forces but also having had the opportunity to study US operations, such how it launches attacks. From a mildly edited machine transcript:
Nima: General Keith Kellogg said that this only solution for the United States is to occupy the Kargh Island and the islands close the islands close to the Kargh Island. what is the capabilities of Iran with the Kargh Island and the air defense system? We’ve learned that Iran has improved its air defense system. But do they have air defense system on these islands and the territory close to this island?
Professor Marandi: [Finger-wagging tone] Nima. The Iranians want the United States to take some of these territories. They want them to come in.
That’s where the war starts.
They don’t they’re not going to keep them out. They want their forces to come on Iranian territory. And then those capabilities that Iran has hidden for decades and is has been preparing for decades against the Americans, they’ll begin using them. They’ll begin striking the American troops. They’ll begin to hammer them, counter strikes, whether it’s on islands or whether it’s on the mainland.
They’ll just they’ll they’ll make them miserable.
Ultimately, the Americans are going to have to leave. We discussed this at the very beginning of the war.
More on Iran’s capabilities:
Iran’s Abyek “underground missile city” has been restored to fully functional after its entrances were obstructed from US/Israel attacks.
Like Abyek, Iran is rapidly restoring underground missile cities back to functional. https://t.co/MkGyRAW5Dr
— Arya Yadeghaar (Backup) (@AryJeayBackup) May 19, 2026
BREAKING: Iran is preparing to continuously fire hundreds of missiles per day at Gulf energy infrastructure, refineries, ports, and water desalination plants as soon as the US resumes strikes, per NYT.
Iran's IRGC says it will "return the Emirates to the era of riding camels"…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 19, 2026
This one is particularly important, so do click through:
Suspended Attacks: Iran Has Perfected and Expanded Its Air Defense
The United States today does not have an accurate estimate of the Iranian air defenses that were reformed during the ceasefire.
During the last days, the media reported that Iran studied the flight patterns of… pic.twitter.com/q2lXpwShq0
— Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) May 19, 2026
In the event of renewal of the war, Iran is also threatening to take it beyond the region. That could mean hypersonic missile strikes on more remote US bases (recall we have been told Iran now has one it is ready to deploy with a 3000km range) or perhaps cutting cables in the Gulf. From Mehr News in IRGC warns war will expand beyond region if Iran hit again:
In a strongly worded statement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps addressed the “American-Zionist enemy,” saying Washington and Israel have failed to learn from repeated strategic defeats and are once again resorting to threats.
The IRGC said that while the two armies attacked Iran with the full capabilities of the world’s most expensive military forces, Iran did not deploy all of its capacities against them.
Should aggression be repeated, the IRGC emphasized, “the regional war that was promised will this time be extended beyond the region, and our crushing blows will bring you to ruin in places you cannot imagine.”
Quoting a Quranic verse on fighting those who break their oaths and mock the faith, the IRGC declared, “We are men of war, and you will see our power on the battlefield, not in hollow statements and virtual pages.”
🚨عاجـــــــــــــــل
عادت طبول الحرب للقرع..إيران لن تترك لبنان
على العالم أن يراقب ما سنفعله في هذه الليلة المباركة.
⛔ تحذير عاجل 🔥🔥🔥😱@kwnn_yemen
على جميع المستوطنين اخلاء تل ابيب فورا.⚡ pic.twitter.com/kf20D4zL8m— إيران بالعربية عاجل Iran is Arab 🇮🇷 (@bint_abiha_2) May 19, 2026
Translated from Arabic
🚨U R G E N TThe drums of war have resumed their beating.. Iran will not abandon Lebanon
The world must watch what we will do on this blessed night.
⛔ Urgent Warning 🔥🔥🔥😱
@kwnn_yemenAll settlers must evacuate Tel Aviv immediately.⚡
On the economy front, while the Trump market manipulation attempt did lower oil prices, but not by much, the bond marker freakout continues. From NO1:
Bond market bloodbath reaches crisis levels. US 30Y yield hit 5.19%, the highest since July 2007, driven by two massive Treasury block sales. Japan’s 10Y breached 2.80% for the first time since 1997, 30Y hit an all-time 4.17%, and 40Y crossed 4.4%. G7 10+ year yields are at ~4.7%, surpassing the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. 30Y TIPS are at the highest outside Lehman’s collapse.
Goldman is a top commodities shop, but the headline claim makes no sense. The effects of a longer duration of the war will not be linear:
For instance, if the war and Strait of Hormuz choking goes on say until September, oil would first do a moonshot as it went into shortages, along with other commodities, and then the global economy would wind up stone cold dead by year end, which means massive demand destruction and presumably lower prices than if the war ended before an acute crisis started.
On a rare cheery note, Europe seems to have secured enough jet fuel for holiday-makers to be able to fly over the summer. From Politico in ‘Summer should be fine’ as Europe’s jet fuel fears ease:
Europe is now considered unlikely to face a jet fuel supply crisis and major flight disruptions in the coming weeks — a big change from the dire warnings of just a few weeks ago.
The core reason for the shift is a hike in prices, which encouraged refiners and traders to redirect fuel cargoes toward Europe, helping offset lost Gulf supplies faster than policymakers initially expected.
However, there are still concerns about fuel supplies by the early fall if the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran continues and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz don’t return to normal levels.
US refiners increasing jet fuel output played a role:
US oil refineries are producing more jet fuel than ever before:
The jet fuel output yield at US refineries is up to a record 12.7%, up +2.2 percentage points since the Iran War began.
This measures the proportion of each barrel of crude oil that a refinery converts into… pic.twitter.com/nsWq7fRA24
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 20, 2026
However, the squeeze is still on in Asia:
These 7 Airlines Are Taking Drastic Steps To Address Fuel Shortages Islands
Iran war fallout forces Singapore Airlines-backed Air India to cancel 27% of international flights CNBC
Thai Airways cuts June flights on 10 Asia services The Nation
Australia looks like a canary in the coal mine on the agriculture front:
And Jeff Snider, using Chinese data, reports that its economy is far weaker than China fans would have you believe. Critically, China now seems to be well into the “pushing on a string” phase in trying to use lending to increase demand. And it is too often forgotten that massive Chinese stimulus blunted the global impact of the 2008 financial crisis:
There is more we could say but this post is verging on overlong, so we’ll stop here. See you tomorrow!
____
1 The stand-in for Daniel Davis did a very good job. I hope that the audience members piped up to say so.
‘Europe seems to have secured enough jet fuel for holiday-makers to be able to fly over the summer.’
And here I was so worried about those holiday-makers missing out rather than freezing this winter. Funny thing this. When Oz shut its doors six years ago for Covid, I had the impression that there was a lot of resentment by those who were missing out on their trips to Bali or Europe or wherever. The same people that resented missing their restaurants. Was this a PMC complaint and is the same for present day Europe? I think that this story is worth studying more to see who these holiday makers are and what they plan to do this winter.
We hit a $900 month last winter on natural gas. I can’t imagine what oil prices will be, horrifying. At currently $500 a ton, when is it time to bring coal back into the picture to keep families from freezing to death in winter?
More jet fuel is just what we need. If not used to fly people to a mimosa on a distant beach then it can power tractors, combines, irrigation pumps as well as provide quicker deliveries to your local grocer utilizing the farm to grocery store airstrip network.*
* My attempt at getting into the heads of the entitled few that own us.
Done for today! Please reload the post and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
You were mentioned in a Moon of Alabama article discussing Trump’s market manipulation and personal profiteering…
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/05/war-on-iran-trumps-stock-investments-may-hold-him-back.html
It is astonishing that a president can hold stocks being traded by his sons.
Even more on the nose when he buys stocks and then talks them up for his own personal profit like he did with Dell-
‘On May 8, at a Mother’s Day event at the White House, Trump told the audience to “go out and buy a Dell.” The stock surged as much as 14.6% intraday and closed up roughly 12%, hitting an all-time high of $263.99.’
Long time lurker here and I really appreciate the news and commentary. But I would like the community thoughts on something I think has been omitted from the discussions. What is the likely public response to a ground assault coupled with some number of US casualties? With ~30% backing anything Trump does, would some percentage of the remaining jump on to the support the troops narrative? This community may be peace/reality biased, but I am not so sure that the demand for revenge and calls for escalation would not take on a life of its own.
I can spin plausible tales of it working for Trump and working against Trump. I think it’s really hard to predict.
My best guess though is that large casualties would cut against him because people generally don’t see the point of this war and understand we started it. If our casualties are high, and the operation/mission that killed and wounded them appears pointless or a failure, or at least not sufficiently sellable as a victory.
If we had some sort of false flag grotesque chemical weapons attack, or something else textured evil like that, that might rally people to the cause. High casualties in any ground invasion stuff we do I don’t think gets him support.
JMO, and it is uninformed:
“With ~30% backing anything Trump does, would some percentage of the remaining jump on to the support the troops narrative? ”
– I doubt it. The “support the troops” narrative may be spun to mean “bring them home”, but I also doubt that, too. If there is a strong opinion, it would likely run along the lines of why are US troops dying for a hopeless war on behalf of Israel, but I think the media would stomp that out pretty quickly
– POWs instead of dead would lead to a tweetstorm the likes the world has never seen, though…
– For perspective, it was assumed that casualties and planes shot down would be a huge thing. Nobody has said much about them thus far, though.
– I think that 30% is increasingly becoming a ceiling, not a floor for Trump. There is a pro-Israel no matter what percentage of the population, but that is nowhere near 30%. Much of the rest of his supporters voted for draining the swamp type of things and will not take kindly to being unable to afford food or gas.
As an aside (purely anecdotal), a very large percentage of the sizeable number of people I spoke to in the election run-up who have either served in the military or who have relatives in the military didn’t particularly like DJT or even have much respect for him. However, they were pretty passionate about voting for him just because he was the first candidate to actually say that he wanted nothing to do with fighting foreign wars. (They were also generally very cynical about US involvement in NATO and particularly in the Ukraine–no idea if they were parroting Trump’s views or if Trump managed to figure out to parrot their views or if this is all just one big happy coincidence)
I haven’t discussed politics with them since (no common events to attend), but I have often wondered how they feel about the events that have transpired since. Maybe they now have a new set of reasons to support Trump, or maybe they can no longer stand the guy–I really don’t know.
Sadly, I have been telling friends and family this is my worst fear. I’m hoping the strategic thinkers in Iran are aware of this too. The last thing we need is war fever in Amnerika, yet again. Look out world, if that’s on with this team in the White House.
I think they are aware that this war is very unpopular, for the first time in my adult life was 10 in ’73), and it would be advantageous to keep it that way.
I was at an LA Kings game in 1973 with my dad when while the game was going on, they announced that the Paris peace treaty had been signed and the Vietnam War was over, and the crowd of say 4,478 exploded in wild approval and it took a few minutes before the hockey game could continue.
I don’t think anybody would give 2 shits if the Torah Torah Torah war came to a conclusion in a similar manner.
No need for concern–the US does not have the means to run another forever war right now, even if it really wanted to. Those days are gone for at least another couple generations
Diesel engines can run on jet fuel, turbine engines can be tuned to run on jet fuel.
That said, maybe less jet fuel and more stove/heating/generator fuel for the winter of 26-27?
They are not the same due to additives.
https://www.elanfuels.com/jet-fuel-vs-diesel-aviation-like-airplane-engines-aircraft-kerosene/
Not denying the substance of the article, but when I worked for a gas turbine engine manufacturer, it was claimed they could even run on perfume: probably any combustible petroleum or organic (including alcohols). They were probably glossing over the requirement to test and modify fuel systems to allow that. They did extensive testing on jet a, jp-4 and jp-8 fuels for production engines. It’s possible airlines could switch from kerosene fuels to diesel but a lot of vacations would be delayed for a long time .
That’s assuming diesel was more plentiful than kerosene- a big assumption.
At least in USN use, every ship I was involved with had cross connects to the JP-5 service system (used for helicopter refueling) for its diesel (Diesel Fuel Marine/NATO F-76) main fuel service system. One of my ships JP-5 was actually the designed fuel supply for the CAT emergency diesels. Though JP-5 has a bit different composition than JET-A.
Also true for conventional steam ships.
Sometime in the 1990’s JP-5 was replaced will JP-8 closer to JET A. USAF went off JP-4 which was mixture of kerosene and avags to JP-8. Going off JP-4 closed down the business segment that mixed the fuel.
JP-8 has different additives to achieve MIL SPEC than JET A.
In theory JP-5 or 8 could fuel the most military vehicles/gensets except the MOGAS engines.
It is good to have fewer types of fuel!
US EIA weekly Petroleum Balance Sheet, week ending May 15 2026
US” Crude oil stocks reduced by -17.8 million barrels US end balance 819.2 million barrels. SPR is now 374 million barrels.
Gasoline stock -5% from year ago
Diesel stock -1.2% year ago
Kerosene/Jet Fuels _4.9% on year ago.
How long can USA draw 18 million barrels a week from crude stocks?
A little math suggests 10.5 months, though that assumes a linear drawdown, which it probably won’t be.
Can confirm. Our family had a secondhand diesel Mercedes that my old man filled with jet fuel from the airport (he is a mechanic). We had free gas for years!
‘Patricia Marins
@pati_marins64
20hSuspended Attacks: Iran Has Perfected and Expanded Its Air Defense
The United States today does not have an accurate estimate of the Iranian air defenses that were reformed during the ceasefire.
During the last days, the media reported that Iran studied the flight patterns of American fighter jets during the nearly 40 days of war and deployed new units under a different tactical bias.’
As has been said before, when you go to war against a country for any length of time, you are teaching them how you fight. Iranians are no slouches when it come to engineering but I bet that they are getting a lot of useful input by the Chinese and the Russians so those countries can improve their own aerial defenses from the lessons learnt in Iran.
Sure, but obviously it goes both ways. So what matters is how you apply what you learn.
Not sure about that. John Helmer, based on a Russian article in Vzygliad, is saying that Russia likely knew about the secret Israeli base in Iraq but did not disclose the fact to the Iranians…
It has come out that there were actually two secret Israeli bases in Iraq, not just the one reported.
I don’t doubt that the US is about to engage in further attacks — I just don’t understand what they think heaping more failure atop this stinking mess is going to achieve?
Slow learners, I guess.
An Empire can never accept so total a defeat as in Iran and remain one in the eyes of
friendvassal and foe.Speaking of slow learners, the good people in Massie’s district voted him out in favor of Trump (and AIPAC’s) guy. MTG is gone and so is Cassidy.
So if anything, it looks like Trump’s grip on the Republican Party remains firm and his immediate political incentives to spin the war seem intact.
>So if anything, it looks like Trump’s grip on the Republican Party remains firm and his immediate political incentives to spin the war seem intact.
And Trump and the R’s will own it all the way to the bottom of the cesspool no matter how much Trump tries to pin it and Biden, or everyone that came before him.
Maybe the thinking of the actual power elite is that the US will be in the position again to head a new ‘Marshall Plan for the 21st Century.’ Buy US oil and tech, for example. It will be reverse engineering for the middle class, but people everywhere are ‘just dots’ to the real decision makers and what does it matter if they suffer?
Further escalation could fall under a “loss avoidance” claim.
I remember the Vietnam War era, and LBJ kept escalating even though some on his team, Robert McNamara for example, thought the war was not winnable.
LBJ handed the war to Nixon, who pursued a “peace with honor” campaign from 1969 to 1973, with secret bombing actions in Cambodia.
Nixon stated he didn’t want to be “the first US president to lose a war”.
I was hopeful that Trump, who has accepted loss in business by declaring bankruptcy, would do the same in foreign affairs by walking away from extremely damaging foreign wars.
This was a massive incorrect assumption on my part.
“Nixon stated he didn’t want to be ‘the first US president to lose a war’.”
And still the helicopters fled the embassy in Saigon.
That Cambodian thing wasn’t entirely secret. The land invasion sparked the demonstrations that led to the Jackson and Kent State massacres.
Maybe they think it’s like the lottery? Only have to win once.
‘Just the other day he was threatening to bomb Iran. He said, “You know, I was an hour away from unleashing hell on Iran.” ….’
I don’t know why the media take him so seriously. Trump just made that up as a way to put pressure on the Iranians and make them think that they had a close call. By now Iran knows what Trump is all about and what a blowhard he is. And they know that with each passing day, the weather in their region gets hotter and hotter while the world economy gets worse and worse. Meanwhile their defenses get better and better too. Time is on their side.
Are you sure that Iranians are prime target of those comments? I would say no, IMO more like his ego , desire present himself to Americans and his Israeli donors then at last emanate some kind of threat to Iranians and wider audience.
Fact that media buy it up is more IMO more symptom of going along and thus suggest support some influential people supporting his course(and trying to help him, also influence situation by amplifing messages they like most).
Also hubris is factor there and inability/unwillingness to accept/admit that USA might loose to ‘backward’ Iran
The consensus from the visiting Israeli colleague over the last few days is that the US will attack Iranian civilian infrastructure starting late Friday/early Saturday (specifically power). Take with appropriate salt as this is not one of the better-connected of my contacts, more of a nationalist type who truly believes Trump is too pro-Israel to back down now. He was incredibly dismissive of my pointing out that Russia has been doing that to Ukraine for over a year now and it didn’t deliver a knock out blow, dismissive of the idea that US midterms would prevent a long engagement. Thinks Israel has the missiles/ammunition to backfill what the US cannot provide. How can you reason with these people? I just shrugged and said we’d know soon enough wouldn’t we? He mentioned cutting the cables too, so maybe if they try to do a stupid commando mission to steal the uranium or whatever Iran will retaliate by cutting the cables instead of hitting the desal plants. My personal feel is Iran will prostrate the GCC countries fully before a final blow on Israel itself.
My WAG is that the order may be (assuming KSA and Qatar don’t join in) UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Israel. KSA and Qatar are last, and Oman’s off the list.
If Israel had any sense, they would drop their Lebanon adventure, consolidate the land grabs in Gaza and the West Bank, and take the pressure of Iran and the rest of the enemies list. Israel is never realistically going to be able to handle Iran or Turkiye any time soon, and its unclear the US will ever recover after the Iran war plays out fully. The smart move would be to use all resources toward instigating a conflict between Iran and Turkiye, and sit back and sell weapons to both sides. But no, seven front war, extending the genocide to Lebanon, getting in a pissing contest with Iran then crying to Uncle Sugar to bail them out. Lots of tactical victories (got a pager?) leading to strategic defeat.
By their logic, this is the best chance that they have to establish Greater Israel. Support for Israel is dropping fast among America’s young people so continued US support in the future cannot be guaranteed. So it is now or never, even though their Lebanon operations alone aren’t going so great-
https://thecradle.co/articles/hezbollah-fpvs-restrict-80-percent-of-israeli-army-operations-in-south-lebanon-report
They have bitten off more than they can chew, completely miscalculated the degree of blowback from their conduct in Gaza, they can’t make any ground in Lebanon, sitting ducks for ambushes, they can just bomb civilians like that will achieve any military objective. The Iran Safari is likely to end with Iran controlling and taxing the Straight of Hormuz and with a nuclear deterrent, and they can likely shut off the Red Sea for Israel as well. Its a big strategic defeat of Israel, and they can’t get out unless they start to change gears.
Don’t forget they started this whole thing riding on sympathy from most of the world on October 8, 2023, and they have managed to misplay it at every step since then.
I think Israel’s strategy is that it knows it will not win, so the point is to take/destroy as much of Lebanon and what’s left of Palestine as possible in salami slices without triggering a full blown Iranian attack. Once US/Israel do attack Iran, the point is just to destroy as much stuff as possible to delay the inevitable.
This entire sorry story is just so crazy and far-fetched that nobody would ever believe it if we weren’t following along incrementally like boiled frogs. A deeply unpopular president enters a war that his population is generally against and basically uses one of the world’s largest nuclear-armed armies to fight a war he could never win, partly in order to prevent headlines of what he did on Epstein island while also generating headlines to day-trade a portfolio while watching his entire country’s economy burn to the ground…This is just beyond the realm of absurd–and this just scratches the most superficial part of the surface.
Yes
Farce and satire got a lot harder in the Trump II era
Tom Clancy would have never come up with that scenario for one of his books. His stories at least made some sort of sense.
‘AIPAC Lost!’ Democratic Socialist Chris Rabb Wins US House Primary in Pennsylvania
https://www.commondreams.org/news/chris-rabb
Senate advances resolution to limit Trump’s Iran war powers for first time, after 4 Republicans defect
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-iran-war-powers-eighth-vote-trump/
Russia arming missile warheads with depleted uranium, Ukraine’s SBU says
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-arming-missile-warheads-with-depleted-uranium-ukraines-sbu-says/
Early War Goal Was to Install Hard Line Former President as Iran’s Leader
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/iran-israel-us-leader-ahmadinejad.html
Israeli detention of President Connolly’s sister ‘unacceptable’ – Irish PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8pz5nm6r8o
Somaliland Sets Up Jerusalem Embassy, Israel to Open in Hargeisa
https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00096785.html
U.S. Homeland Security says it assisted Spain in probe of leftist former PM
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/spain/us-homeland-security-says-assisted-spain-probe-leftist-former-pm-rcna346047
Depleted uranium is only okay when we use it, how did Russia miss that basic fact?
UK relaxes strict sanctions on Russian crude as oil costs soar
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/20/uk-relaxes-strict-sanctions-on-russian-crude-oil
Tankers exit Hormuz with 6 million barrels of crude oil
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-tankers-exit-strait-hormuz-with-4-million-barrels-crude-oil-data-shows-2026-05-20/
Iran threatens to extend conflict ‘beyond the region’ if U.S. and Israel resume attacks
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/iran-war-us-israel-middle-east.html
Venezuela’s oil production rises 23% since January
https://orinocotribune.com/venezuelas-oil-production-rises-23-since-january/
China confirms it will buy 200 Boeing jets after Trump-Xi summit
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98rjydlgp4o
Iran warns it could open up ‘new fronts’ in war after US threatens ‘large-scale assault’
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260519-iran-warns-it-could-open-up-new-fronts-in-war-after-us-threatens-large-scale-assault
Europol disrupts thousands of IRGC online accounts across 19 countries
https://www.euronews.com/2026/05/19/europol-disrupts-thousands-of-irgc-online-accounts-across-19-countries
NATO is starting to consider Hormuz mission to protect ships
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/nato-is-starting-to-consider-hormuz-deployment-to-protect-ships
US plans to shrink forces available to NATO during crises, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-plans-shrink-forces-available-nato-during-crises-sources-say-2026-05-19/
Was it Hardy who said to Laurel, “Well this is another fine mess you’ve gotten us into.” Our Donnie is casting about for someone to pin the “fine mess” on. Hasn’t found the “guilty” party yet. Meanwhile he talks on and on and on … nothing new there … sure that his ‘golden’ words will be the solution. All you need is a convincing narrative, right? Did you ever read the little book titled On Bull Shit? Convincing narrative is the euphemism for bull shit.
Fun fact: “Golden Words” is the name of the Queen’s Engineering newspaper. Its byline used to read “Canada’s Other National Newspaper”
JMH, yes I have that little book, “On Bull Shit” and it’s an insightful philosophical analysis. I recommend it.
Israeli minister says Turkey should be treated as ‘enemy state’
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-needs-treat-turkey-enemy-state-culture-minister-says
Ben Gvir posts video of himself taunting bound and detained Gaza flotilla activists
https://www.timesofisrael.com/ben-gvir-posts-video-of-himself-taunting-bound-and-detained-gaza-flotilla-activists/
Xi, Putin condemn ‘treacherous’ strikes, urge US to end Iran war
https://abcnews.com/amp/International/xi-putin-condemn-treacherous-strikes-urge-us-end/story
If Iran now has a missile capable of reaching Diego Garcia this would seem to be the time to use it, the same holds true if their subs are out and about and have the capacity to hit a US Carrier.
If they could do either or both Mr Market would have a fainting spell.
And Trump might well order a Nuclear strike in retaliation because no one defies the King.
If Trump does go that far off the rails the best argument might be that there would be no more golf, not at Mar a Lago, not in Scotland, no more golf.
That’s something Trump cares about…golf.
Diego Garcia is 4000km away.
The report I received re the new hypersonic’s range is 3000km.
Hasn’t Iran announced they’ve tested (for the first time) an ICBM that has a range of 7,000 km.? Or have I been deceived by false news again?
Iran does not have an ICBM. And cannot have tested one because no missile has been fired from Iran which has traveled that distance, which would have a flight path outside Iran’s borders. The claim, widely picked up by the media, that a missile that landed near Diego Garcia (4000km) came from Iran was denied and later debunked.
Just to add some nuance to this, last year, a few days after Midnight Hammer, when the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran released an image of the Vogtle Nuclear Generating Plant in Georgia (along the Savannah river), but made no accompanying comment.
Some have interpreted this to mean that Iran was slyly declaring that it could hit the US if it wants. Others have interpreted to mean that Iran, too, has sophisticated satellite technology for ISR. Most just ignored it altogether. But this is where the idea may have come from.
1. I love your name
2. I think you are thinking about India’s AGNI-5 ballistic missile (~5k range, although there is speculation that it can go higher).
Somebody hand out the missile umbrellas in Akrotiri! Showers expected in a few days. And 40% chance of ICBM precipitation in Diego Garcia.
And Cyprus and Djibouti, I think.
Tehran to Cyprus: 1,670–1,730 km
I don’t know why anybody seriously thought DJT was going to attack Iran over the past 72 hrs. He didn’t even bother to issue an overly-dramatic warning to Iran this time, just “the clock is ticking, you better hurry up.” Neither the GCC nor Pakistan requested that he delay the attacks because they were about to reach an agreement. This is all the same song, third verse. He’s not even bothering to go through all the motions anymore. Why should he? The MSM reports his words as fact regardless of lack of plausibility.
Now I’m not suggesting he will never attack—if he does it will probably be over this next long weekend after markets close and he will announce victory before the markets open on Tuesday.
But on the other hand, there’s plenty of other news. Trump could quietly slink away and not many would notice so long as the SOH gets opened up. Trump would of course have to issue a statement declaring victory, which Iran will deny, and that would be the end of it.
This is a straw man, It was Trump that set that idea up and YOU are propagating his story.
Many very expert people saw an attack as “imminent”, based on things you not considered, which is level of assets in the theater, the fact that the now rapidly rising heat in the and difficulty/stress of keeping them at ready for any longer, and reports from insiders that a big attack was in the works, and soon.
But the expectation was that Trump would nevah strike early in a trading week. The tacit (in my case, explicit) expectation was he would decide Tuesday in his Situation Room meeting for an attack on a later date.
I’ve been watching all the sources: both Larries, Ritter, Mcgregor, Helmer, etc. etc. Larry Johnson has been predicting an imminent attack for several weeks now. One of the these days he is going to be right. These guys are certainly getting their fifteen minutes.
And yes, I believe the US military is ready to carry out whatever crackpot mission that Trump may order, so assets are in theater and on alert. But as we’ve all seen and heard, there is nothing that Trump can do militarily to Iran that will move the needle.
And there’s this, too–which should not be discounted because Trump is ruled by his emotion. Trump is in a good mood right now! He’s relieved that the China trip is over. He’s got his slush fund. Massie is out. The other candidates he has endorsed are winning. He finally endorsed Paxton, who was probably going to win next week anyway**. And he’s got good golfing weather.
(**Do you people know who votes in Republican primary runoff elections? I do. I was a delegate to the Republican state convention in 2006. Those people love Paxton’s sliminess. He’ll probably win by double-digits. And Cornyn, whose signature hangs on the wall in my office, will go down as one of the most craven politicians of all time. He could have spent the last six years living according to his true values and standing up to Trump, and then retired at the end of this year. But instead he decided he just wasn’t ready to give up the levers of power. He humiliated himself by pretending to be MAGA, when everybody can tell he’s only pretending. He’s been a country club republican all along.)
I suggest you review the Vietnam War and Robert Pape on the escalation trap.
The reason Daniel Ellsberg decided to take an action that he was certain would result in his imprisonment, as in release the Pentagon Papers, is he like some other experts at Rand were convinced that if they could just get an audience with the President, they could explain to him that the US could never win and needed to pull out.
When he read the Pentagon Papers, he found that every one of five presidents had been clearly briefed that the US could not prevail in Vietnam. Yet they persisted because they felt US prestige was at stake and they did not want to be the one tarred with the status loss by shutting US involvement down.
The short version of Pape’s formulation is that a struggles over sovereignity (which this is) are zero sum game, so Iran will not concede since any concession only sets up further ones. And the pattern of a powerful state is to gamble, even if odds of success are very low, rather than accept a certain loss by pulling back.
And Trump’s reality-challenged cheerleaders like Netanyahu, Keith Kellogg, Jack Keane, Lindsey Graham, and Pete Hegseth, see US success as certain if they just keep at it. So he does not see things the way you do.
Yves, I would add to your point on Trump and how he sees the world: I think any predictions on what actions Trump might take also run into one serious issue – indications of cognitive problems.
Or to put it less kindly – predicting the actions of the insane is a futile endeavor, no matter how well informed.
None of us has a crystal ball, but if I were a betting man I would wager that Trump is going to do Cuba next, since they just indicted Raul, bless his heart. Trump needs another mini-win to boost his ego. Then he’ll authorize more air strikes against Iran. This all could move very quickly, so it could be done this weekend, but more likely Cuba this weekend and then Iran next weekend, both will begin after the markets close on Friday and end before the next market opening.
I am seeing a pattern that could be affecting all of the timing. ISTM that Trump’s goal is to keep WTI below $100 and the Dow above 50K, like we have today.
I don’t know… the “experts” that we keep seeing here have been wrong over and over again, so maybe we should take a step back on the expertise? I’m sure they know more about military stuff than most do (certainly than I do), but Trump is hardly some rational military man and it’s not even clear that there are rational military men left leading the troops. I’m having a hard time deciding if the people we see on YouTube are experts or “influencers”. As time goes by, I tend to think it’s the latter.
Maybe Fox news is still the place to go for predictions as that is what the president watches?
Trump had a ton of assets in the Caribbean. Experts predicted he would attack Venezuela based on the forces assembled, even though he took so long their predictions looked silly. Then he did his raid
Trump is adding to, not reducing forces. So all the evidence is he will attack. Only a systematic pullback would prove otherwise.
Iran, which has better intel than either of us, differs with you.
Lead item in the Aljazeera live feed now:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/20/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-of-many-more-surprises-if-conflict-resumes
JMO: The likelihood of another attack is likely extremely high (and I am almost positive that DJT **does not** want to actually do this, but he feels cornered into it). However, if the US is to attack, all things being equal (i.e., preparations are in place, etc.), sooner is better than later given the fragility of the energy supplies and supply pipelines. So on the one hand every day is more probable than the succeeding one. So last weekend was more likely than this weekend, which is more likely than next weekend, etc.
And who knows, maybe he won’t even bother with coinciding an attack with the weekend. Maybe he will just short the hell out of the stock markets this time and go for an epic crash. I don’t think he really cares about the stock market as such; he likely cares about his own portfolio, which happens to depend on stock market valuations. He can change that (albeit not easily, he’s had a few months to do so).
As time goes by, Trump’s ability to impact the stock market decreases. Just like his ability to control energy prices.
Time is not on Trump’s side.
We are to believe no bombing because of Hajj:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-trump-postponed-us-attack-iran-after-hajj-warning
That would push the war to end of the month. Not that Ramadan was considered at all for the previous start. I recall the messaging being that it might be after Ramadan and yet it wasn’t. Could be the same situation again.
WTI futures are back below $100. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED, Donny.
#PutOptionsExercised #TACOGrift
26 ships passed through the Straight in the last 24 hrs co-ordinated with Iran, that is 25% of peacetime traffic. If there is no US attack Iran is de facto gaining control. Another reason they have to attack even though they have a tiger by the tail.
The test is NOT leaving the Strait of Hormuz. How many times do I have to say that?!?! It is getting to the Arabian Sea.
The 26 is an Iran report, not confirmed by tracking data.
However, there is big news in that three supertankers went through, with their transponders on, two with Iraqi crude going to China, one with Kuwait crude to South Korea, all through the tollbooth.
Iraq is on Iran’s side (even if the government does not fully control the country) and the US is unlikely to mess with China bound carriers, at least for a wee bit, since Xi agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets after all. For once, Trump did not lie!
The US will not hinder a carrier from Kuwait going to South Korea, even if (as with the other 2 supertankers) the formal rule is the Navy is to stop any ship using the Persian Gulf Authority channel.
But a key point on the Iran side is ZOMG Kuwait. Kuwait was an enemy and Iran was not letting enemy ships pass. Does this mean Kuwait and Iran have reached a modus vivendi?
The US has had some success in barking and getting ships to turn around. The last tally I saw from TankerTrackers showed the ratio is >5 for every capture.
The US saved its manhood a teeny bit by seizing an Iran ship in the Sea of Oman just now, as in beyond the Strait:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/20/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-of-many-more-surprises-if-conflict-resumes
Pati Marins: “Instead of merely rebuilding destroyed systems, Iran has perfected and expanded a modern air defense network with fiber optics, quantum-resistant and decentralized encrypted communications, making it far more resistant to electronic warfare.”
1. Fiber optics are not new. Also, what else would they be using to transmit so much data? It wouldn’t be radio frequencies…
2. WTH does “quantum-resistant” mean? No RSA algorithms? This is marketing gibberish. Also, wtf does “quantum resistant” have to do with EW? Is there a growler somewhere in the sky that is hard at work unentangling photon pairs?
3. Any military uses decentralized encrypted communications. This is almost like saying “I walked to the store using my very own two feet.”
“These integrated systems also include a third element: the laser rangefinder. It fires an invisible beam for a fraction of a second to measure the exact distance to the target, enabling the missile to be launched with surgical precision.”
4. “invisible beam” ???? any IR is invisible to us. If she is talking low sidelobes, well, yeah, that is the point of a laser (or sophisticated array)
5. “a fraction of a second” Again, obvious and marketing gobbledygook
6. “to measure the exact distance to the target” This is not new–this isn’t even used in marketing anymore (it’s like saying “my fancy new airplane has wings to manipulate airflow”)
7. “enabling the missile to be launched with surgical precision.”” WTF is “surgical precision???
I would expect more from even the New York Times, let alone a supposed military analyst????
Thanks. This is the second time a reader has unpacked one of her buzzword-filled posts as misleading bafflegab.
I will use her going forward only for new data points and not interpretation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anIXLNIWRAs
One should point out that “enough” jet fuel has been secured by various airlines only after a number of them had cancelled >10% of their scheduled flights through early fall. While raising prices (including via surcharges), which is likely a drag on projected passenger volumes, allowing a few more cancellations on the margin.
So we’re looking at a combination of destruction on both producer and consumer sides. Triggering secondary impacts across the economy, e.g. less tourism (and tourist spend), less disposable income for those who do fly, GDP erosion, etc. etc. I am going to guess that something similar – double-sided destruction following by spend and GDP impacts – will happen in a number of other economic sectors, at least absent firm government action (ha!). Probably a spike in personal and corporate defaults beginning in the last few months of the year or early next year.
And this is assuming no further military stupidity. Which is a big if, frankly…
It’s just endless. I can’t believe we’re still taking any of this seriously
U.S. crude oil falls below $100 per barrel after Trump says Iran talks in final stages (CNBC)
This is based on Trump’s claims. Again.
I need whatever Wall Street is high on.
Reality is gonna be lit when barrels stop showing up and no one can understand what happen.
I found a brain:
Also, Fed speaks in its minutes
Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show
See above, Market reaction more due to 6 million barrels getting out of the Gulf bound to China and SKorea. Financial Times made this a lead story.
The world consumes ~100M barrels a day, with SK consuming ~2-3M/day. Would 6M barrels total suffice to lower prices?
This is not my area of expertise, but it doesn’t seem right…
Police officers who defended US Capitol on January 6 sue to stop Trump’s ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/20/politics/police-officers-us-capitol-january-6-sue-trump-fund
Ukraine Prepares for Possible Russian War Expansion Through Belarus, Zelenskyy Says
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-prepares-for-possible-russian-war-expansion-through-belarus-zelenskyy-says-19011
Russian jets ‘dangerously’ intercept RAF spy plane over Black Sea
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8p40e2zx1o
Former Cuban President Raul Castro charged with murder in US
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-expected-unveil-criminal-charges-against-cubas-raul-castro-2026-05-20/
South Korean tanker safely transits Hormuz after talks with Iran
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/south-korean-tanker-safely-transits-hormuz-after-talks-with-iran-3220305
South Korea navy commences nuclear submarine development process
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2026-05-20/national/defense/Navy-commences-nuclear-submarine-development-process/2597205
American foreign policy is reduced to the Rubios’ personal grudge against the Castros.
Rubio is learning from his boss.
Massie really needs to run for president in 2028, as any other GOP candidate will be a complete family blog show.
This sets up another kidnapping to distract from losing in Iran.
Thanks Ann.
I fear for those police officers who are filing suits against Trump’s 1776 billion fund, they are going to find out in a hurry how contingent their cop privilege really was.
Cuba Says the Trump Administration Is Not Negotiating in Good Faith
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/world/americas/guzman-cuba-us-negotiations-trump.html
UK struggles to reassure Ukraine after easing new sanctions on Russian oil
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/20/uk-struggles-to-reassure-ukraine-after-easing-new-sanctions-on-russian-oil
UK strikes £3.7bn trade deal with six Gulf states
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/20/uk-trade-deal-six-gulf-states-keir-starmer
Europe must break China’s grip on rare earths pricing to spur investment, sector body says
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/europe-must-break-chinas-grip-rare-earths-pricing-spur-investment-sector-body-2026-05-20/
Bolivia rocked by protests as US warns of ‘coup d’état’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/20/bolivia-protests-coup-paz-pereira
Trump to speak with Taiwan’s president in a new challenge for US-China relations
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-he-will-speak-with-taiwans-president-2026-05-20/
Cuba: Flight tracking shows US surveillance aircraft near island as tensions continue
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjep1wx7w0ko
42 aircraft lost or damaged in Operation Epic Fury, congressional report says
https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2026-05-20/iran-jets-downed-war-fury-21727588.html
U.S. national debt officially hits $39 trillion—adding $5 billion a day since October
https://fortune.com/2026/05/20/us-national-debt-officially-hits-39-trillion-milestone
Rules Committee Republicans Protect Trump’s Illegal January 6th Slush Fund: Rules Republicans vote to protect Trump’s illegal plan funneling $1.8 Billion in taxpayer dollars to his political allies, including convicted felons who assaulted cops on January 6th
https://democrats-rules.house.gov/media/press-releases/breaking-news-rules-committee-republicans-protect-trumps-illegal-january-6th
Proposed rule change for Social Security could end benefits for nearly 400,000 disabled people
https://www.mlive.com/news/2026/05/proposed-rule-change-for-social-security-could-end-benefits-for-nearly-400000-disabled-people.html
Trump Admits He’s About to Screw Over His Own Party With Iran Deal – Donald Trump said he’s in “no rush” to make a deal with Iran.
https://newrepublic.com/post/210726/donald-trump-republican-party-midterms-iran-deal
Trump calls on Senate to fire parliamentarian to pass the SAVE America Act
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-calls-on-senate-to-fire-parliamentarian-to-pass-the-save-america-act/
Trump administration lifted ban on ‘cyanide bomb’ used to kill animals on public lands
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-admin-cyanide-bombs-public-lands/
Report: Troops say Army ignored request for medical support before attack that killed Nicole Amor
https://www.twincities.com/2026/05/19/nicole-amor-kuwait-attack-iran-war/
Another take regarding President Trump’s alleged “plans” to attack yesterday only to be dissuaded by pleas from the GCC states:
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on Danny Haiphong’s Youtube channel, saying this:
[cleaned-up machine transcript, emphasis added]
Republican Threatens to ‘Kill’ Trump DOJ’s Anti-Weaponization Fund
https://www.newsweek.com/republican-kill-trump-doj-weaponization-fund-11974868
Trump’s Age Problem Is Hiding in Plain Sight
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-age-problem-is-hiding-in-plain
US Republican senator says Trump ballroom funding removed from spending bill
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-republican-senator-says-trump-ballroom-funding-removed-spending-bill-2026-05-20/
Citing ‘Callous Disregard’ of Hegseth, Top House Dem Does Not ‘Trust’ Pentagon Answers on Iran School Massacre
https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-school-bombing-pentagon
Trump’s GOP base is fracturing over gas prices and Iran war—Poll
https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-gop-base-is-fracturing-over-gas-prices-and-iran-war-poll-11973538
Israel’s treatment of detained Gaza flotilla members is ‘abominable,’ Carney says
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-gaza-flotilla-activists-detained-9.7205666
Gov. Jeff Landry Gets Magnificently Dissed By Kids In Greenland: NY Times Report
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jeff-landry-maga-hats-cookies-greenland_n_6a0d9be7e4b079e4ea3481e8
Given that the US and the Zionist entity will be attacking Iran again, what response short of destroying the Gulf’s infrastructure can Iran take that would give the Trump Regime a big headache?
Iran has no reason to play games at this point, they will need to do something that will cause an “OH SHIT!”
response from both Mr Market and the World at large.
Both private credit and AI are wobbly right now, taking out the data cables would be significant but probably not enough.
Something asymmetric, judo rather than boxing.
Any suggestions from the Commentariat?
As has already been suggested on here, if you had those goals, and you had the means, in this purely hypothetical situation where we are discussing possible scenarios for the sake of learning and no one is suggesting anything be done in this fashion Mr. NSA or PropOrNot 2.0, you take out Diego Garcia. Or something similar.
If you really want to frost the nipples of everyone in NATO and the empire adjacent, you coordinate your strike with Russia and China. Imagine waking up one morning to hear that Kiev and any German supporters are gone, Diego Garcia is no more, and China has surrounded Taiwan.
Game. Set. Match. Time for the US to quietly run and hide. The Europeans and Japanese will be on their fainting couches for at least the next year. Trump will retire to kicking puppies inside his ballroom and plotting a coup for Puerto Rico.
Take out use and hit Israel hard, that’s 2.5 mob.d under quota, and they’re leaving opec so they can double that. Hit Israel hard, include Ben gurian, control tower big target.
I love this question, but unfortunately I don’t want to give out specific strategies in a public forum (not that I have access to any sensitive information). However, if taking out infrastructure is out of scope, and if you are looking for asymmetry instead of straight up throw weight bombing, here are some very general ideas, most of which are deliberately unimaginative by design, and the others are likely unworkable (not by design–just due to my own limitations):
1. Divide Israel and US. This is already happening, but I would really ratchet up the tensions.
2. Divide GCC populations from their rulers. This too is already happening on some level
3. Try to ensure that the Turks no longer allow Erdogan to play both sides and actually force him to make demonstrated commitments of help. This one is tricky and could backfire, but I assign a much higher probability of success than most people do on it–the population is pretty pissed about Israel
4. Weaken NATO. Trump and Putin have already both done this in different ways and for different reasons, but anything that forces US to spend time on this would be beneficial right now (I also view Russia/China/Iran as a de facto alliance, and this helps Russia)
5. Work with Houthis to shut down Bab-el-Mandeb. Extremely unoriginal and likely inevitable
6. Get India to at last get it to block supplying Israel with manufactured goods until war is over. This likely falls under the “if pigs could fly” scenario, because I think Modi is very pro-Israel, despite public stance.
7. Work with the Egyptians or unilaterally close Suez. (Not required to win; also unlikely Egypt would agree willingly, but there are a few approaches that I think could credibly work)
8. Say that $X of oil transfer fees will go to Palestinian causes and demand that the GCC countries do the same with their own funds :) Refuse to allow oil out to the Europeans and Asians unless they also disallow US bases (not quite workable in this format, but could be revised into something workable);
9. Tie nuclear issue to de-nuclearization and harsh inspections of the entire ME (including Israel); similarly, tie it to Israel returning to 67 borders (in line with UN). Nobody would agree to this; the point is to force Israel and the West into increasingly defensive explanations for refusal
10. Continue to goad the US/Israel into wasting what few standoff munitions and anti-ballistic missiles they still have; continue to taunt Trump publicly with tweets and lego videos so that he acts up and does something extremely stupid out of lack of impulse control
11. Create absolute hell and civil unrest in Jordan
Release Epstein files, which Handala apparently has copies of. Start with suggestive files, then each day the war drags on, release incrementally more scandalous ones. This one would really pressure Trump if he feels caught due to Israeli blackmail, btw.
The really interesting/novel ideas would be more fun to discuss (and more realistic, given that I have thought about them deeply rather than just throwing out random ideas off the cuff), but maybe this gives at least food for thought. In reality, after a certain point, I think Iran will just continue doing what it is doing–making reasonable-seeming demands that the US/Europe/Israel find “unacceptable” but cannot change by force and then continue dragging this out to its absolutely humiliating (for the West) conclusion. I am not sure this is the best approach long term if taken to the extreme, but I don’t get a vote and the Iranians who have played the game thus far are far smarter than me anyway.
You may have more fun playing the opposite mental game, btw: If you are the US or Israel, how do you come out of this with a win (or at least without a devastating, unrecoverable loss)? I think there are actually credible ways to do it, but they are not easy. Iran is very, very clearly in the dominant position for the next 5-10 years minimum.
One last (cryptic?) thought: If you have ever played Go and are as bad at it as I am, you often find that one moment you have your opponent surrounded, and then with a few deft moves, all the pieces change color and then you are suddenly surrounded yourself. Iran is currently more or less surrounded by foes, and Israel is more or less
Trump, 79, Slurs Through Rambling Commencement Speech; Donald Trump’s graduation address quickly descended into gibberish.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-slurs-through-rambling-commencement-speech-at-coast-guard-academy-in-connecticut/
Gallego: GOP manufacturing ‘reason for another regime change war’ in Cuba
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5888134-gallego-gop-manufacturing-reason-for-another-regime-change-war-in-cuba/
A NATO fighter jet shoots down a Ukrainian drone over Estonia
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-drone-downed-estonia-russia-war-c098579e65a2a76e1610329d57cf4b0a
Trump officials say they can build 250-foot arch without Congress’s approval
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/05/20/trump-officials-plan-build-arch-without-congressional-authorization/
Trump admin didn’t want Ebola-exposed Americans, sent them to Berlin, Prague
https://arstechnica.com/health/2026/05/trump-admin-didnt-want-ebola-exposed-americans-sent-them-to-berlin-prague/
Trump Sends Syrian President, a Former Al-Qaeda Leader, Refills of His Self-Branded Cologne: ‘Just in Case You Ran Out!’
https://people.com/trump-sends-syrian-president-more-cologne-11979628
Records show Cleveland’s Flock cameras used for immigration searches. City says Flock accidentally connected drones to the network
https://www.cleveland.com/news/2026/05/records-show-clevelands-flock-network-used-for-immigration-searches-city-blames-flock-and-drones.html
US aircraft carrier arrives in Caribbean amid tensions with Cuba
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5888335-uss-nimitz-caribbean-cuba-trump/amp/
Ontario resident being tested for Ebola after travel to East Africa, says health ministry
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ebola-ontario-resident-test-9.7206357
Iran sticks to its guns as Trump’s threats begin to lose power
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-sticks-to-its-guns-as-trumps-threats-begin-to-lose-power-11967826?
US rights group maps AIPAC’s ties to US, Israeli governments
42 US warplanes lost in the Zionist hitchhikers guide to the universe conflict…
We don’t have fog of war, it’s more akin to 1960’s LA smog.
It’s just a flesh wound.
Contra signal from the market….the surge in announced IPO’s (SpaceX, OpenAI, and, today, Oura, the surveillance ring company….there are more) is the billionaire class unloading their low cost shares in highly speculative, heavily indebted companies on the very, very unwise (and unlucky). This summer is setting up to be a race between chaos and greed. Will the insiders get the deals done before the Hormouz chickens come home to the US?