Recent Items

Iran War: Brief Update – JD Vance Acting in Bad Faith, Israel Stressed Even as It Doubles Down on Intent to Stay in Lebanon

Posted on by

[Today’s Iran war post is yet again launching before complete because Greenspan. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]

Even though Iran war news has understandably slowed down a lot in the absence of much in the way of new developments, it still makes sense to provide some information hygiene items to compensate for less-than-great mainstream media reporting and framing.

JD Vance Reveals Himself as a Problem, Not a Solution

JD Vance gave a number of statements to the media on what he depicted as things Iran had or expected to agree to, which Iran denied or was certain to reject. This conduct confirms Iran’s view that US officials and even more so those of the Trump Administration are utterly untrustworthy.

Vance claimed Iran had agreed to let IAEA inspectors back in. This came after Iran (I think the deputy foreign minister, if I find a clip I will add it) had said in his statement about the Switzerland negotiation session that the only discussion of nuclear issues was each side briefly stating its posiiton. No concessions or commitments were made.

To BBC’s credit, it gave prominent play to Iran object to Vance’s claims. From US eases oil sanctions as Iran denies Vance claim on nuclear inspectors:

Iran has denied a claim by Vice-President JD Vance that it will allow nuclear inspectors back into the country, after the first round of talks between Washington and Tehran to reach a final deal to end the war.

Following negotiations in Switzerland, Vance said discussions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could be happening “as soon as today”.

But Iran’s foreign ministry told state media that Tehran had made “no new commitments” on nuclear inspections.

It came as the US temporarily waived sanctions, allowing Iran to sell oil in US dollars for the first time in decades.

We had noted yesterday that Iran had said the oil sanctions had been lifted when no action had yet been taken by OFAC. That has now happened via a 60 day waiver.

Another Vance fabrication:

The full text of the tweet:

Reporter: You mentioned Iranian frozen funds could be used to buy American soy. Have the Iranians have already agreed to that?

Vance: Yeah, that was something that came up yesterday. And we actually asked the qataris to help us set up the mechanism so that we could ensure that the money goes where we want it to go. And they agreed to do that. We have a good relationship, obviously, with them and a good operational oversight mechanism in place. But even with that said, even with the caveat that it’s going to benefit American farmers and obviously benefit the people of Iran, we want both. But fundamentally, that money is not going to be unfrozen unless we continue to see progress. And that will obviously be a big part of the negotiation in the days to come.

There is no way Iran would agree to anything like this in general, much the less at this stage of the talks. See for instance:

Again, the full text for your convenience:

Iran imports ± 10 million tonnes of corn a year and ± 0 from the United States, by design.

A deal that ring-fences Tehran’s own unfrozen money to US grain is not relief, it is a leash, and Iran is spending billions on overseas farms precisely to avoid putting its head through it.

Prediction: the agricultural-escrow clause does not survive the final text because JD Vance has no idea what he is talking about here.

For a longer-form takedown of Vance’s embarrassing performance:

Robert Pape, in some fresh talks (this one is more compact than others), revisits a point he made earlier, that the Trump Administration conceives of the Iran negotiations as business bargaining while Iran sees them as a vehicle to further increase its power. Pape is too proper to stick the knife in, but Team Trump is bingo when Iran is playing chess.

Uh, oh, the Trump wrecking ball has come out yet again, here in a tweet after the first release of this post:

If this is not merely an exercise in Trump acting like the Big Man, you can kiss this deal goodbye.

Israel Getting Stressed as It Tries to Hang Tough on Lebanon

This news hit my feeds just as I was readying the first publication of this post. Israel of course has violated the ceasefire, perhaps not coincidentally not long after the technical negotiators left Switzerland:

This is not even remotely to defend Israel or the IDF; they chose to invade Lebanon and engage in brutal ethnic cleansing. But it appears that even the weak-seeming US deconfliction process on top of the ceasefire put the IDF in freakout mode at having its ability to engage in rank abuses curtailed. Even though one could assume ceasefire violation as always were baked in, the upset at some US curbs increasing the odds of speedy and nasty violations. From Shaiel Ben-Ephraim:

Due to the negotiations in Switzerland and pressure from Trump, the IDF has been put in a defensive formation in Lebanon. This has alarmed their command structure and soldiers who feel like sitting ducks in the territory. The NYT put out a couple of stories on this and Ynet followed up with comments from soldiers on the ground:

1) On Saturday Israeli commanders got new orders restricting them to defensive action. Troops can fire only against an immediate threat. Anything proactive needs the Chief of Staff. No warning shots at civilians returning south unless they get too close to positions. No blowing up homes or infrastructure in the security zone without senior approval.

2) Israel denied this. Netanyahu said on Monday: fighters have “full operational freedom to thwart any direct or emergent threat.” He did not address the ban on offensive action. It is clear that he lied.

3) Why the contradiction? Israel is embarrased that the US is forcing them into restraint.

4) There is more attention on Lebanon now as Pakistan and Qatar announced a “de-confliction cell” with Iran, the US, and Lebanon to police the end of operations.

5) Troops on the ground are very unhappy. A reservist in Division 98 said: “We feel we aren’t doing something meaningful.” He says they secure the sector more than they operate. They net positions only so drones can’t get in.

6) There is no defense against drones and the lack of action now makes the problem worse. Same reservist : “We have soccer nets and banana-grove nets, that’s our protection.” He says Hezbollah does not waste drones on netted positions. They hunt exposed soldiers. His sector near the sea takes the most: “Of all the rotations I’ve had, this is the one I’m most afraid of.” He describes diving off a Humvee into a ditch, praying a drone misses him. “The most helpless I’ve ever been.”

The directives are real and restrictive. Three senior officials spent the weekend denying or recasting them. The restraint is externally driven by US-Iran diplomacy and now backstopped by a de-confliction cell. IDF soldiers are dying in large numbers and they feel like they are being treated as expendable without any clear strategy in Lebanon.

And:

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Uncertain

The press and quite a few Twitterati are keen to hype the idea that more traffic is moving through the Strait of Hormuz. But as far as I can tell, the consequential traffic, as in of tankers, is still nearly all Iranian or Chinese, as in China bound. That will help keep China help alleviate the oil crunch by not adding to oil demand but does not provide much direct relief to other nations.

Mind you, this picture could change a lot in mere days, but enthusiasm appears to exceed consequential vessel movements.

And remember, what the world economy needs is regular two way traffic, as in ships going into the Gulf to pick up fresh cargoes and then proceed to their destinations. Perhaps I have missed it, but ex Iranian and Chinese ships, there does not seem to be much of that.

From Lloyd’s List in VLCC rates spike yet again as ‘confusion continues to reign’ at Strait of Hormuz:

  • Baltic Exchange’s West Africa-China VLCC index rose to $188,957 per day on Monday, up 92% week on week to the highest level since March 10
  • US Gulf-China VLCC index increased to $154,987 per day, up 46% week on week to the highest assessment since April 2
  • Oman-China VLCC index rose to Worldscale 276, up 82% week on week to the highest level since the index was introduced on March 24

The Strait of Hormuz isn’t open yet, but the chance that it might be soon — even if it’s a partial reopening — is a magnet for VLCC tonnage, pumping up spot rates at other loading ports around the globe

SPOT rates for very large crude carriers have surged, even as the crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains a relative trickle compared to pre-crisis levels.

Notice “relative trickle.” Similarly, even though the numbers are up, they are still depressed compared to the old normal:

Admittedly some other meaningful-size ships are starting to move:

Iran continues down the path of regularizing its control:

Even more important, Iran (despite ferocious US muscling of Oman) also seems to be making process in getting Oman formally involved in management of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical to having Persian Gulf Authority be colorably legal, as opposed to an exercise in pure power. From Iran International:

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said in Oman that new arrangements have been agreed for the Strait of Hormuz, including a coordination mechanism, hotline and contact centre to address any ambiguity or disputes. He said the parties would maintain close coordination over a 30-day period, under Article 5 of the arrangements governing navigation and coordination in the Strait of Hormuz, referring to a specific clause within the operational framework for managing maritime passage, to ensure safer and more efficient transit of vessels through the strategic waterway.

And let us not forget that The Resistance has pressure points in addition to the Strait of Hormuz it can use to induce the US to come down hard on Israel:

Done for today! Likely to see you tomorrow.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Subscribe to Post Comments
4 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    It’s hard to account for JD Vance’s blatherings and making up concessions that the Iranians never made such as Iran letting the IAEA inspectors back in or agreeing to spend all their released funds on American soy (since China isn’t buying it anymore). This is the sort of stuff that Trump says. So could it be that Vance is operating on a very short leash and Trump is giving him detailed instructions on what to say, things that Trump himself would say?

    Reply ↓
    1. ocop

      It is a bizarre spectacle. Could also be Vance getting soundbites onto the news to assuage Trump while the “real” negotiations continue.

      Funnily enough, if you reread the “soy for dollars” discussion, Vance never actually addresses the question or makes a definitive claim about Iran. “They” (the Qataris) agreed to “that” (a sham transfer mechanism). The money only to be unfrozen after unspecified “progress” (but not explicit agricultural purposes). He is a slimy lawyer after all.

      Reply ↓
    2. ChrisFromGA

      That’s my interpretation as well, plus “a fish rots from the head down.”

      This whole administration is rotten to the core.

      Reply ↓
  2. Yves Smith Post author

    All done! If you arrived early, please refresh this page, since it has important updates, such as Israel violating the ceasefire in Lebanon.

    Reply ↓

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *