Recent Items

Iran War: Trump Again Whiplashes, Threatens Sustained Bombing, Capture of Kharg Island, Then Touts Plan to Sign Not-Finalized Iran Memo; More on Oil and Metals Squeeze, Plus SpaceX, AI Tidbits

Posted on by

[The Iran war post launched yet again before complete due to competing obligations. I hope to have it finished by 8:00 AM EDT but it might take until 8:30 AM EDT. Please return or refresh this page then for the final]

It is irritating to have to keep tabs on Trump’s epic flip-flops. But that is by design. It’s how Trump seeks to wear down opposition. So let us soldier on and not become victims of Trump’s antics. Oil traders got it right yesterday by not reacting to Trump’s latest threat to bomb Iran into submission. Perhaps they had worked out that Trump was not about to jeopardize the SpaceX IPO, set for Friday, by upsetting Mr. Market.

The short version is that Trump loudly and rapidly, even by his standards, cycled from aggression to deal-fakery, from “We’re gonna beat the shit out of Iran if they don’t capitulate,” to “They gave in, we’ll be signing next week.” Markets rallied strongly, with investors paying scant attention to the fact that Iranian outlets and officials quickly said nothing had been agreed by the top leadership and signaling that they had not given ground on their red lines either.

We’ll unpack that a bit more, then turn to a new Administration disgrace, that of a State Department investigation of Responsible Statecraft co-founder Trita Parsi, and look again at the looming energy and commodities crunches, plus a few Seriously Bad development on the AI front that the touts are still managing to talk past.

First to the Trump bluster

Wall Street Journal Trump Says U.S. Will Hit Iran Tonight, Threatens Seizure of Energy Markets

Shortly after the post, Trump told Fox News on Thursday morning that the U.S. could make a fortune by taking Kharg Island and controlling Iranian oil sales, but that Americans probably don’t have the appetite for such a military operation and would rather see U.S. soldiers brought home…

Now, Trump appears to be relying on a far blunter instrument: raw military pressure to compel Iran into submission. But Tehran, which remains skeptical of the terms on offer from Washington, may once again absorb the pressure rather than capitulate. If so, Trump risks becoming further entangled in a widening Middle East conflict without any guarantee that escalation will deliver a decisive outcome.

Then his retreat:

Notice in particular the “brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved” fabrication. Tasnim immediately posted a denial in Media Claims about Finalization of Text for Iran-US Understanding False

A British media outlet has claimed that a draft agreement between Iran and the US had been finalized.

However, the claim is incorrect as no such text has been finalized.

It as US President Donald Trump suggested that an agreement with Iran was within reach, a claim rejected by Iranian officials.

Trump alleged that Iranian officials had contacted him directly and requested a halt to military strikes. He also warned that military options would remain available if Tehran refused to accept Washington’s proposed agreement.

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has denied the claim.

In a statement early on Thursday, the IRGC’s public relations office said the US president’s claim is “a cover to escape war.”

Earlier, some local news agencies had also rejected the claim, citing security sources.

The sources called the claim an “absolute lie” and said Iran will give a “crushing response” to the latest act of US military aggression against Iran.

It is odd that Tasnim pinned the false claim on the press and not on Trump himself. Some Iranian outlets were less circumspect:

An exclusive story in Politico said the Gulf states intervened successfully. From After Trump threatened to attack Iran, a scramble to stop him:

Soon after President Donald Trump posted Thursday morning that he would hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” leaders from Gulf and South Asian countries called the president in a last-ditch effort to change his mind. They assured him a preliminary agreement that paves the way for more detailed talks was, in fact, at hand.

The calls, which have not been previously reported, came from Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Pakistani defense chief Asim Munir, according to two administration officials and a diplomat briefed on the calls. Both were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic mediation…

The message from Iran was different. Iranian state media reported that Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, said that while large parts of the negotiating text have been finalized, Iran would not compromise on its red lines, Reuters reported.

However, the fact that Trump relented so quickly is proof of inner panic, the fears that Robert Barnes described long-form in interviews we featured this week. A fresh Janta Ka segment documents the Trump flip-flop, and instructively includes a clip of John Mearsheimer, in which the University of Chicago says that he can see signs of Trump’s desperation in how he has been carrying himself:

Larry Johnson’s new post nevertheless describes how Trump’s increasing agita has not moved a resolution any closer. From Donald “Whiplash” Trump Tacos Again:

The day began with Trump posting on Truth Social that the U.S. would be hitting Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT,” threatening to seize Iran’s oil infrastructure including Kharg Island.

Five hours later, he performed another verbal backflip worthy of an Olympic gold medal for gymnastics. Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters that the U.S. and Iran had essentially reached a settlement:

We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran. And we’re going to be subject to finalization of documents we should get done over the next few days and probably have a signing, maybe in Europe.

He then posted on Truth Social:

Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.

He added that the naval blockade would “remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”

Trump also claimed the Strait of Hormuz will “officially open” the moment a deal is signed, and affirmed that the U.S. will lift its naval blockade as “part of the deal.” He indicated he would not personally attend the signing but that Vice President JD Vance and other officials would go.

Tehran wasted no time raining on Trump’s framing of the negotiations… Iran denied any movement toward a longer-term agreement. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said reports of a finalized agreement with the United States are “speculation” and stressed that “nothing has been finalized,” adding that Iran “has not yet reached a final conclusion regarding an agreement.“

He added that much of the draft text had already been completed but that “the Americans kept changing their positions,” while emphasizing that Iran “does not compromise on what it has defined as its red lines.” There are five red lines: remove sanctions, unfreeze frozen assets, lift the blockade, recognize Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and end Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Gaza. Iran is not going to budge on these.

And let us not forget that Israel will wreck any deal, in the highly unlikely event that Trump folded:

The US is continuing to spew shameless messaging:

Keep in mind that the pattern above the negotiations have a process problem on top of the pre-existing lack of trust and yawning-chasm-between-the-two-sides impediments.

We mentioned that the “deal is near” hype had also been coming from journalists with contacts on the negotiating team and/or relevant governments when it seemed inconceivable that either side had given enough ground for that to be remotely conceivable. Indeed, Trump seemed to be working very hard with his regular belligerent statements to lash himself to the mast of the war. And as Johnson and others have said, there is no reason to think Iran has meaningfully or even trivially changed its position.

So as we said before, it looked as if the negotiators are pulling on levers not connected to anything. That makes sense if you consider both sides are trying to avoid a problem that I call “double brokering”. A principal never never should negotiate directly with an agent. Any commitments the principal makes will be treated as settled, while the agent can go back to his principal and the principal can try to extract more.

Despite the negotiators trying to tell Iran to ignore what Trump says, that is simply ludicrous. When a big Iranian team came to Islamabad for talks, they saw JD Vance repeatedly having to call Trump and even speak to Netanyahu. The Iranian side was authorized to make commitments within clear parameters. The US side was not set to do the same; everything was up to Trump and Netanyahu.

Thus the Iran team cannot afford to have anyone make solid commitments in this messaging process. It too has to mimic the shambolic US and reserve the right to withhold approval by the top level.

And the US has also been, unbelievably, hardening its positions. We either misread or the news outlet in question was incomplete about stating the fact that the Treasury was assessing conflict damage and proposing to make payouts from Iran assets to Gulf states for reconstruction. Either the writer’s or my assumption was that Iran would be treated as a child, with its funds doled out to Gulf state concerns who would do the rebuilding subject to total expenditures that the US in its infinite wisdom deemed reasonable.

That part may be still be true….but Treasury also intends to expropriate frozen Iranian assets for Gulf state reconstruction. From Scott Bessent on Twitter yesterday:

The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing.

Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts.

Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.

Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.

And it is not as if the state of play will hold through the end of the weekend:

Next to the Administration persecution of parties it deems to be engaged in wrong-speak or overly consorting with designated US enemies, as in when Scott Ritter was barred from traveling to Russia as well as on the receiving end of an FBI raid where they seized electronic devices and important historical records.

Now Trita Parsi of Responsible Statecraft is under threat. From Jay Solomon in The Free Press: EXCLUSIVE: Will the U.S. Deport Trita Parsi?:

Since the United States and Israel went to war against Iran, perhaps no one in America has been quoted more often as a critic of the conflict than Trita Parsi, co-founder of the think tank Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

From the far-left Democracy Now! and The Nation to Steve Bannon’s pro-MAGA War Room podcast to television networks CNN, MS NOW, and Al Jazeera, Parsi has said again and again that President Donald Trump faces a quagmire in Iran and that diplomatic accommodation with Tehran’s ayatollahs and generals is the only way out. Parsi’s writing in Quincy’s online magazine and his own newsletter on Substack also reports what he describes as threats to the U.S. from the Islamic Republic, often attributing them to “sources in the Iranian capital.”

“Tehran is likely to target American data centers in the UAE,” he wrote in May, essentially warning the U.S. and Israel not to abandon the ceasefire that took effect in April by resuming attacks against Iran. “Tehran sees an opportunity to cripple the UAE’s ambitions to become a global artificial intelligence hub.”

In the eyes of some inside the Trump administration, Parsi isn’t just another Washington pundit eager to share his point of view. The State Department has launched an investigation of Parsi and could try to deport him, according to U.S. officials and documents reviewed by The Free Press. Parsi was born in Iran, grew up in Sweden, has lived in the U.S. for over 25 years, and holds a green card.

“The secretary has been very clear,” said a Trump administration official about Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s efforts to combat Iranian influence inside the U.S. “Anyone who seeks to undermine the U.S., we’re taking a hard look at.” That includes “people who support adversaries of ours and whose work furthers their agenda and undermines our security.”

I find it remarkable that Parsi is framed as a critic of the war for daring to make fact-based assessments, particularly when it is more accurate to depict him as an advocate of finding a negotiated solution to the conflict. There is a vast array of commentators who are far more pointed in their criticism of this conflict (start with Daniel Davis, Douglas Macgregor, and Larry Wilkerson) and at least as high profile. But as a green card holder, he is an easy target.

Ana Kasparian at The Young Turks saddled up quickly to lambaste this threat:

I am told the Judge Napolitano crowd will be piling on bigly.

And a frontal attack on a less prominent and more critical voice. From DD Geopolitics on Twitter:

WE WILL NOT BE SILENCED!!!!

Yesterday, our colleague and DD Geopolitics correspondent Chris was told that the US government has placed him on the FBI’s no-fly list while trying to board a flight in Beijing.

He is an American citizen. He received no warning, no charge, and no ly when the airline refused to issue his boarding pass after eight hours of waiting, stranding him abroad. As an American, he is now barred from flying to, from, or even over his own country.

His “offense” is journalism.

Chris was traveling to cover Iran’s national team at the World Cup. In recent months he reported on the ground from Minab in southern Iran and from the site of the Starobelsk strike in the Donbass, where a dormitory full of teenagers was killed. His work documents the human cost of the wars Washington funds and fights: the children who never make the press releases.

For that, an American citizen has been placed on a terrorism watchlist with no due process and no explanation.

This is not a small thing. The no-fly list operates with almost no transparency, Americans are routinely listed without ever being told why, and the redress process is a black box that a federal court has already found violates constitutional due process. It is one of the most powerful quiet censorship tools the government holds, and it is now pointed at a journalist for reporting things they would rather no one see.

DD Geopolitics will not be silenced. We are pursuing every legal avenue available to Chris, and we will not let this be buried.

DD Geopolitics is a reasonably high profile account, with over 500,000 followers. An American cannot be denied entry at the border, merely harassed a bit. But the new ploy is not to let parties this extremely insecure Administration sees as a threat get to the border.

Chris could fly to Canada and then present himself at a land border, assuming the US has not cancelled his passport, as they did with Edward Snowden when he was in transit. Regardless, this is meant to be and is punitive.

Briefly on the economic front: in a deliciously pointed short talk, Arthur Berman debunks two of the Big Lies underlying paper oil market complacency:

An important tweet by Nick W, who is @Hattusilis_III, summarizes an upcoming paper which manages to make sense of continuing low oil prices relative to the coming end of inventories supporting demand and the fact that it will take a long time, and may be never, before Strait of Hormuz energy transits normalize. He finds the pricing would make sense if the inventory subsidy to supply would continue, which of course it won’t. He also estimates how high prices will go when the oil cliff finally arrives. I have omitted his flow calculation table, whi you can find at the link:

Net deficit with all measures deployed: 1-5 mb/d

Elasticity literature
Fed consensus short-run elasticity: –0.13.
Recent 2001–06 estimates: –0.077 to –0.034.

Price range consistent with current market
At 1-5 mb/d net deficit, the calculation using consensus elasticity produces:
$74-95.
Current $85-100 consistent with that range.

When the temporary offsets go, the net deficit moves to:
7-10 mb/d crude
+ 5.9 mb/d products shortage, which has no offset and transmits directly into crude pricing

Durable net deficit = 13-16 mb/d

At that point, depending on elasticity used, the calculations give:
Consensus –0.13: $136-151
–0.077: $182-208
–0.034: $325-387

In a supply shock of this magnitude, the probability shifts toward the more inelastic estimates.

The market is correctly priced if the temporary buffers were durable. It is not priced for when those temporary buffers run out.

Another cheery economic sighting comes from the Financial Times in Iran war tightens ‘super-squeeze’ in metals markets:

The Iran war is creating a “super-squeeze” in industrial metals such as copper and aluminium, say executives and analysts who believe persistent tight market conditions mean prices could be set to stay high for years to come.

The price of copper is close to its all-time closing high while aluminium is at its highest level in four years….

But unlike energy markets, where there is plentiful global supply, concerns about looming shortages existed in some of these industrial metals before the war…

For metals, the war has increased the costs of operating a mine because of the higher price of the diesel used to run trucks and other mining equipment, and due to a jump in the price of sulphuric acid, a crucial ingredient used in some copper and nickel mines…

In the case of copper, the market was already expected to be in deficit — where demand outstrips supply — this year, because of disruptions at major mines.

The conflict in the Middle East has dented production further, by causing the price of sulphur — a byproduct of oil refining — to more than double.

Disruptions in sulphur availability could remove as much as 125,000 tonnes of copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. A further 200,000 tonnes of production in Chile could be at risk because of sulphur disruptions, including China’s ban on exports of sulphuric acid, according to Amy Gower, analyst at Morgan Stanley…

Goldman Sachs, which initially forecast a 60,000-tonne deficit this year outside the US market, recently revised that up to a 640,000-tonne deficit….

Mining executives say the shortfall has been building for years and investors have often not allowed them to make the necessary investment in new copper mines…

In aluminium, the war has had a direct impact, with the Middle East accounting for almost 10 per cent of global refined production…

Meanwhile, high fuel prices triggered by the war have caused some countries to accelerate investments related to energy security, for instance in renewables, a move that is expected to boost demand for copper and aluminium over the medium term, according to analysts…..

“I haven’t seen much demand destruction,” said Jean-Sébastien Pelland, executive director at Eland Cables, which makes copper cables used in offshore wind farms and oil rigs.

High costs are passed on to end users, who are willing to pay for them, he said. “People are not going to stop buying cables for renewables energy any time soon.”

Too briefly, on to AI, in a tiny nod to the SpaceX IPO and to make up in a small way for our neglect of this beat. But the length and extensive documentation in Ed Zitron’s posts shows how hard it is to do that well.

No less than the Wall Street Journal published OpenAI Considers Drastic Price Cuts, Anticipating War for Users With Anthropic on Wednesday. lGary Marcus quickly described why this was a Bad Thing that he had predicted. On Thursday, Marcus published Maybe Section 230 doesn’t shield AI companies from liability, after all. Key observation:

The new German decision that holds companies liable for their chatbots’ errors, might arguably be true as well under US liability law. Because Section 230 doesn’t exempt companies from what their own software does.

Section 230 is, and always has been about 3rd party speech. The German courts remind us that chatbot-product speech is not that.

More sobering sightings from Marcus:

And to SpaceX in particular:

Do click through:

Plenty more where that came from…

Francine McKenna read the SpaceX prospectus and found boatloads not to like. Some snippets from her article, Watching the SpaceX IPO:

MarketWatch’s MW Brett Arends does a very good SpaceX “red flags” preview column. In it he mentions many of the obvious things like the fact that SpaceX loses a lot of money. He also mentions another funny strange, not funny ha ha, thing:

In case you missed it, jumbo Wall Street bank JPMorgan had a stock analyst covering Musk’s other publicly traded company, Tesla, who was resolutely bearish. By an absolutely amazing coincidence, JPMorgan a month ago suddenly reallocated that analyst. His replacement initiated coverage of Tesla with a target price more than three times as high. And Musk cut JPMorgan in on the IPO. JPMorgan declined to comment.

Nothing to see here, folks. Move along….

SpaceX admits in the risk factors to its prospectus it has no idea when it will ever be profitable.

We have a history of net losses and may not achieve profitability in the future.

We incurred net losses of $(4,937) million and $(4,628) million for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2023, respectively, and a net loss of $(4,276) million for the three months ended March 31, 2026. We may not achieve or, if achieved, sustain profitability in the future. As of March 31, 2026, we had an accumulated deficit of $41,311 million. While we have experienced significant growth in revenue over the last three years, we cannot predict whether we will maintain this level of growth or when we will achieve profitability again.

Cash balances have been artificially propped up by massive borrowing.

Why does SapceX need this IPO? Like always Elon Musk says a lot of things but the reality is often something very different. Via the Motorhead newsletter:

When Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s iconic CEO, asked Elon Musk at an investor meeting last week why SpaceX is going public now, Musk smiled and replied, “We’re embarking on a massive new growth phase, and we need capital for that.”

This isn’t exactly true. In fact, it’s as close to a lie as one can get without lying, given that the $75 billion of funds that will be raised by SpaceX’s IPO will go to pay down liabilities linked to Musk’s failed AI start-up, xAI:

  • xAI, was burning cash at a rate of over $1 billion per month last year, with minimal revenue. While segment cash flows aren’t disclosed, the EBITDA less capex in SpaceX’s AI division last year came to a $15.5 billion deficit.

And Iran has it in its crosshairs:

Done for today! Will see you Monday or perhaps over the weekend if Trump loses it yet again.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Subscribe to Post Comments
150 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    Trump may say that he has stopped shooting – yet again – but is there any sign that the Iranians will let any traffic out the Strait? After this attack, Iran shut it down totally so that might create more pressure on the west. As for Kharg island, forget it. Can you see US troops arriving on Kharg island humping some 90-140 pounds (41-63 kgs) of body armor, weapons, ammo, water, and specialized equipment when the temperature is hitting 122° Fahrenheit (50° Celsius)? Not going to happen. And I won’t even go into the problem of resupplying them with water and ammo alone while evacuating casualties while under fire. The only thing that I wonder about here is whether Trump does not care about putting American troops into that sort of hell or whether he is just talking s***.

    Reply ↓
    2. ilsm

      Gallipoli comes to mind, but the Brits had naval dominance, so sending beans and bullets was a major but not ruinous problem.

      First months on Guadalcanal in 1942 may be interesting US lost a lot of naval assets in that venture, assets US does not have now. The Solomons are 3000 plus miles from Japan.

      Reply ↓
        1. hk

          US had good naval coverage (and a lot of replacement ships) for the Guadalcanal Campaign while the Japanese were short on both transports and replacement ships. The battle was won by US essentially when the Japanese ran out of ships to support their forces (IJA had 100,000 additional troops and a lot of equipment that they wanted to ship to Guadalcanal, but IJN told them they had neither warships to support them nor transports to carry them or their supplies.) Japan’s problems don’t apply to Iran, but they very much could to US.

          Reply ↓
          1. PeeB

            The early months of Guadalcanal are fascinating. The US owned the day thanks to Henderson Field but come nighttime the IJN owned the seas around the island. Those long lance torpedoes were the best of the war and IJN night optics beat early USN radar. Ironbottom Sound and its surroundings has the tallies: 2 CVs (Wasp, Hornet), 8 cruisers, 14 destroyers on the USN side vs one light carrier, a handful of cruisers and two old BBs (Hiei and Kirishima) which fell to two brand new US BBs.
            The IJN mostly won the sea battles but Guadalcanal turned into an attrition nightmare because troops on the island never achieved their primary objective: seizing Henderson Field.

            There doesn’t seem to be any Henderson Field equivalent hinge point in this war with Iran given it’s strategic depth and winning (so far) asymmetrical military strategy.

            Who needs a conventional air force/navy when you have unstoppable ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles that can degrade your opponents fixed assets and keep its naval power beyond its intended effective attack range?

            Reply ↓
        2. ilsm

          My first wife’s uncle, US Navy, was killed in action in a naval battle in Nov 1942 interdicting IJN naval task force threatening the positions on Guadalcanal. His USN destroyer was hit and sunk by a Japanese torpedo (their torpedoes were first rate, a lot of fire power and reliable fuses).

          The naval campaigns in the Solomons were bitter, a lot of losses. The US was replacing the loses and more!

          US is a different country today!

          Reply ↓
    3. Oregon Lawhobbit

      Can you see US troops arriving on Kharg island humping some 90-140 pounds (41-63 kgs) of body armor, weapons, ammo, water, and specialized equipment when the temperature is hitting 122° Fahrenheit (50° Celsius)?

      One of the reasons the Gulf Wars were on hold for so long was the need to get troops in theater and then acclimated to the temps. I’m not sure how much acclimation is going on for the troops stuck on transports. Certainly training is not going to be all that doable.

      I doubt that Captain Heelspur has any concept of the need, though, and it’s not like any of his advisers are going to be humping 130-140 pounds* of stuff through the heat and sand…

      I was skeptical of a midweek attack … now today, on the other hand…

      *fortunately our loads never got close to that. Maybe 30-35 pounds (we were rarely issued the mostly useless flak vests) for a basic “fighting” loadout, especially if you were like me and carried a LOT of water. But this was for an untested peacetime Army in Korea and Europe in the 80s.

      Reply ↓
      1. Ben Oldfield

        The real killer is heat stroke. If you stop sweating you have only miniuts to reduce your body temputure down, get in the shade strip off to get your body temature back under control. I had this when I was walking fast up a 13 degree underground tunnel and managed to suvive.

        Reply ↓
    4. Safety First

      1. Trump is a lifelong bull artist. He spews nonsense every time he opens his mouth, which is why it’s best not to pay attention to anything he’s saying (rather than doing) viz. these negotiations or this conflict.

      2. I very much doubt either Trump or the Pentagon want to actually invade, as in take and hold, any part of Iran – at least, with American troops. Kurds or whoever, fine, they’re expendable. But not Americans.

      3. A raid on Kharg or some other place – get in, plant flag, get out, all in under 8 hours – is more apropos here. Rationally, it will achieve nothing. Trumpically, we have seen him flail between different options, like a user clicking random things on a frozen webpage, hoping something will “work” (whereas in reality those extra clicks accomplish nothing meaningful). Again – “I’ll declare bankruptcy!” “ok, I won’t declare bankruptcy!” – that whole thing.

      4. I despair at people assuming that a raid on Kharg or wherever will be made with boats. The US Navy may be run by incompetent baboons (competent baboons would be in the Marines), but even incompetent baboons are typically not suicidal. If they go, they will go via helos and possibly Ospreys; if the Isfahan adventure had taught them anything, it’s that they can, in their mind, land even transport aircraft on Iranian territory and not actually get stranded (materiel losses notwithstanding, they still got all the landed troops back out, didn’t they).

      5. If we’re talking about a short raid, planners are as likely as not to dismiss both resupply (“opposition will be light”) and climate (“we won’t be there long enough”) considerations. Especially if they go at night with the aim of bugging out by 10 AM. I would still wonder about how specific equipment (helos) will perform at specific air temperatures, but whatever.

      Again, such a raid would accomplish nothing at best, and prove a disaster at worst – and it’s the prospect of looking like Jimmy Carter that’s probably the one thing that has held Trump back from giving the order thus far – but I can see how you sell this at a planning meeting. The take-and-hold thing, not so much, that’s where I am guessing the Pentagon would start throwing up obstacles.

      Reply ↓
      1. lyman alpha blob

        If the media were at all curious and did their jobs rather than being court stenographers, Trump would already look worse than Carter after that “pilot rescue” mission that cost hundreds of millions in aircraft and likely some casualties too. And we still haven’t met this recued hero pilot. As much as Trump complains about the media coverage he gets, they still do him a lot of favors.

        Reply ↓
    5. redleg

      I can see this administration sending soldiers, sailors, and marines to their death by dehydration and heat stroke. They couldn’t care less about the troops. Rank and file troops will do their best unless their leaders have more backbone than I encountered in my service time and refuse to go. Enemy fire is any acceptable risk of being in the military. Environmental casualties are an acceptable cost only to a point.

      Reply ↓
  2. ilsm

    Trump’s 39th “peace in our times” tweet the past few months!

    I follow the theory that Trump wants “Musk’s SpaceX IPO” to fly today w/o CENTCOM battle damage blither in the news.

    Musk is amazing! His $28 trillion “total accessible market” includes flying thousands (4400 pound) of satellites each containing 150kw AI rackets in formation in solar sync orbits!

    New definition of “rocket science”.
    .
    Iran off the front page won’t change the path of the AI bubble?

    Reply ↓
    1. paul

      You’re like the people that said musk wouldn’t make a difference to federal governance.
      Everything he touches turns into gold,his gold.

      Can you honestly say that he did not save the united states for his class, forever?

      He is the tribune of those people, the non trillionaires, the hard inheriting billionaires, and must never be allowed to fail.

      Reply ↓
  3. OnceWere

    “The Treasury was assessing conflict damage and proposing to make payouts from Iran assets to Gulf states for reconstruction.”

    Are these payouts supposed to come from the frozen assets held in Gulf accounts (which the Gulf states could presumably already seize without US approval if there were the slightest legal basis to do so, and if it wouldn’t crater confidence in their banking systems as a safe haven for dirty money). Or are they supposed to come from assets held under American control and that could only be released to the Iranians with full Congressional approval (and hence should already be viewed by the Iranians as irrevocably lost in any circumstance short of complete unconditional surrender). If the first, how generous of the Americans to give the Gulf nations permission to sabotage their own banking systems. Even the Europeans haven’t yet dared to roll the dice and permanently confiscate Russian funds. If the second, how generous of the Americans to fund Gulf reconstruction, but why that would move the Iranians I do not know.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      The Russian assets are in Euroclear, which is based in Brussels, and hugely important to the EU. I am not sure where the Iranian assets are held. Euroclear operates outside the EU and could be sued in venues that would be sympathetic to a Russian case, such as Hong Kong.

      And you are incorrect about Congressional approval. Only some of the frozen assets were seized in connection with Congressional action, and all that is required is a Presidential certification (which would be to fact not in evidence, but has that ever bothered this Administration?

      Long winded way of saying I don’t think the legal risks are the same.

      Reply ↓
  4. Andrew

    This whole Trump talk is so repetitive and old (negotiations, bombing, more negotiations, war ending, bomb into history, three more days, and on and on and on). Does anyone care anymore? Just bring people home so that they can be with their families and watch the UFC fight on pay-per-view.

    Reply ↓
  5. JohnH

    Yesterday evening I made the mistake of watching NBC nightly news, which I have avoided for years. They were giddy at the prospect of a “deal,” unquestioningly parroting whatever Trump said. This is the nonsense that the American people are being fed. Needless to say, I won’t be wasting my time with them any time soon. But it did make me won’t where you could get some of that hopium drug that they must take every day.

    Reply ↓
    1. pjay

      Yes. I usually watch a mainstream newscast every evening, and its usually NBC. I do this to keep tabs on the daily Establishment narrative. NBC is not a “pro-Trump” source. It widely publicized its recent Big Interview with Trump in which he got irritated with Kristen Welker and walked out, treating this as some sort of badge of journalistic integrity. Yet it keeps reporting these Trump bleatings as if they reflect reality.

      For me that simply demonstrates the primary function of NBC in providing the Blue Team side of the sheep-herding narrative in the overall management of consent. Iran is the Enemy; they will not report objectively on the war. But a faction of the Establishment is critical of Trump’s recklessness and open alignment with the right-wing Zionist agenda. For reasons rather obvious to NC readers they fear the consequences of open warfare with Iran and favor incremental hybrid warfare under cover of fake agreements instead. So they’ll go along with these fantasies. Still, since such agreements are better than open warfare I hope there is some grain of truth to such reporting.

      Reply ↓
  8. Sibiriak

    FWIW, from the Guardian :

    Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency has published a list of terms that are reportedly in the draft memorandum of understanding with the US. It cites a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, but the details have not been confirmed publicly by either Tehran or Washington. The report says the text is yet to be finalised by the Iranian leadership.

    According to the report, the draft includes 14 points:

    Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

    The US’s “commitment to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs” and respect for its sovereignty.

    Lifting of US naval blockade within 30 days.

    Withdrawal of US forces from around Iran.

    Reopening the strait of Hormuz within 30 days “with Iranian arrangements”.

    Suspension of US sanctions on Iranian oil.

    US and allies to draw up reconstruction plans for Iran “worth at least $300bn”.

    Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement “based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of” sanctions.

    Reiterating Iran’s commitment not to produce nuclear weapons.

    During the negotiations, the US will not increase its forces in the region or impose new sanctions.

    Release $24bn in blocked Iranian funds.

    Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.

    Final agreement to be approved by a UN security council resolution.

    The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran’s frozen funds, the suspension of oil sanctions and the lifting of the naval blockade. “Discussions about Iran’s missile programme and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda.”

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Sounds like Iran is upping their demands with each attack. Not only do those US & Israeli attacks on Iran not make Iran quit, but the Iranians will increase the price tag by adding another condition or two to their negotiation stance. I do notice that only one of those Iranians points concern Israel. That could change.

      Reply ↓
    2. ilsm

      “Cessation of war” in Lebanon! IDF will attack those non state terrorists in S. Lebanon.

      The wording needs to be evacuate Lebanon and do not go there again!

      This goes on until IDF does its thing.

      Reply ↓
    3. Oregon Lawhobbit

      Release $24bn in blocked Iranian funds.

      I wonder if that more specifically includes the, as Yves so nicely put it, “12 billion just to get out of bed.”

      The list in general looks to a lot of what they’ve been talking about anyway, but seems oddly unspecific in some areas that have previously been quite specific.

      Gonna have me a couple grains of salt with this one.

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        That money is setting up two reactions in Trump at the same time. The Iranians want their money back which he understands & respects as his whole waking life is all about money. He should give them their own money back. But at the same time, he loves stiffing people that he owes money too and has a very long history of doing this. So you have these two ideas rattling around him at the same time.

        Reply ↓
        1. Oregon Lawhobbit

          Wait wait wait…. You’re actually suggesting that TRUMP HAS IDEAS????

          I’m also curious as the 30 days to end the blockade. That would seem to be a quick “it’s signed, war’s over, let ’em pass” radio transmission. Why in heck would they need 30 days? Likewise the “open the Straits.” Olly Olly Oxenfree – and the ships head out and in. Though maybe “open the Straits” includes “stop at the toll booth on the way through.” Though my understanding is that that’s how it is now.

          Along with some of the other “items,” I’m wondering if maybe Mehr had gotten into somebody’s stash as well as the West’s news “sources.”

          Reply ↓
    4. Ben Panga

      Orange Man unhappy, deal predictably falls apart. Barnes confabulation take scans accurate to me. I think he may believe some/all of what he’s saying here.

      Truth Social Rant:

      ‘The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing.

      What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.

      Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING!

      Also, their totally rebuffed drone attack last night against Indian ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! They better get their act together, and fast!’

      Reply ↓
      1. Michaelmas

        Hilarious projection.

        If Trump was in a psychoanalyst’s chair, such a rampant delusional break from reality would be grounds to commit him.

        Reply ↓
        1. Yalt

          The criteria for involuntary commitment in DC are

          1) mentally ill and

          2) likely to injure himself or other persons if not committed.

          By the time we got to the end-of-Iranian-civilization tweets I think the case made itself.

          Reply ↓
  9. Socal Rhino

    On X, a lively thread for a few days involved a critique of the TV show “House.” Complaint was that every episode followed the same formula with the case solved at the end.

    Gulf deal news each week reminds me of this. Cocky NY real estate con man wanders into a Persian bazaar and attempts to steal merchants blind. No sale. Hilarity ensues.

    Reply ↓
  10. Acacia

    Re: DD Geopolitics on the US dot gov extending its lawless behavior:

    The Russian Foreign Ministry urged Russians to be cautious when traveling to Thailand due to a high risk of arrest at the request of the United States.

    The statement said that the US is acting without regard to Thai authorities, and conducting special operations to “catch” Russians that are of interest to them.

    “Many of those detained face threats from American special services, intimidation, and psychological pressure aimed at persuading them to plead guilty,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/186435

    “the US is acting without regard to Thai authorities”

    Reply ↓
    2. Yves Smith Post author

      Thailand is in a HUGE crackdown on foreigners who have been abusing nominee structures to buy land and run business. Foreigners can only own 49% of a land plot or a company. The exceptions are condos (where there is a limit at the building level of 49% of foreign ownership of units) and Americans for companies (not land) where under the US-Thai treaty, Americans can own companies here outright (but the structure is somewhat restrictive). The misconduct is that the majority of Thai owners are straws and did not provide funds nor play any corporate governance role.

      Admittedly, some naive foreigners got caught up in this. You’ll see many houses and some condos listed as “company ownership” which pretty much always means a Thai straw is the majority holder. Many brokers and law firms misleadlying depicted Thailand not enforcing these laws much as a loophole, which it never never was.

      Many arrests and detentions w/o bail. A lot of the nominee company abuses are connected with scams and money laundering, and at a minimum evading Thai taxes and labor laws.

      Chinese, Russians, Israelis and Indians big in this; Chinese and Russian gangs have a real foothold here. Americans not much implicated. So it would be hard to go after Americans under the cover of this monster sweep.

      Not sure what the US angle is; most of the Russians here are anti-Putin.

      BTW the new restrictions on tourists and expats are so serious that they are scaring off tourists at a time when tourist-dependent Thailand’s entries are already down.

      Reply ↓
      1. Ben Panga

        A side-effect: there’s been an exodus of low-quality expats to Da Nang in Vietnam. Clear uptick since Thailand got seriously strict with border runners around the turn of the year.

        I think l I read that 126k people have been refused entry to Thailand at borders (inc airports) since the crackdown started last year. And the immigration seem to be a bit more keen to enforce the “you must be carrying 20k baht cash on you to be allowed in” rule. Even if only enforced to obvious border runners it’s causing confusion and making travellers a bit leery.

        Must admit to some schadenfreude seeing the Israelis getting de-settled from Phangan and Pai though.

        Reply ↓
          1. Yves Smith Post author

            People who don’t pay bills at restaurants, try to negotiate prices at hotels after having booked and accepted them (ie, making a scene in the lobby), getting in fights, have sex on the beach (very much against the law here), beat up on the hookers they brought to their room…

            We have stories like that regularly in the Pattaya Mail. It happens so often that a Bangkok lawyer who often puts short clips on YouTube has a regular feature on expats behaving badly. He has said it used to be only once or twice a month and now is multiple times a week. See the latest, “Naked Antics” See Foreigner Arrested in Thailand?

            And:

            That is before getting to other cases in the press in the last couple of months: a Chinese tourist having a monster weapons cache, a bust of a huge drugs lab, scam networks, the Army busting an illegal school…a far from complete list.

            Reply ↓
  11. ChrisFromGA

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/5921374-iran-responds-trump-us-peace-negotiations/

    The Iranian regime on Thursday signaled the U.S. and Tehran “had not reached a final conclusion” on a deal to end hostilities in the region, despite President Trump’s claim of a breakthrough in negotiations.

    Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said “most of the text of the agreement was finalized, but the problem began when the U.S. side made new demands and changed its positions” in a statement to state news network SNN TV.

    Futures bleeding off pre-market; Nasdaq red. No response in crude oil, yet.

    Reply ↓
    1. Acacia

      I think it’s worth noting again that Iran also has some interest in kicking the can. Time is on their side and letting Trump thrash about and claim “victory” over and over does nothing to avert the incoming market squeeze when the SPR drawdown ends and prices can no longer be suppressed though this kind of chicanery.

      As for crude, yeah, there has been a very slight recovery to 85, but that’s after a drop from 91 to 85.38, so it’s not really clear that the bottom is in yet.

      I’ve come to the conclusion that the “irrational” oil markets are in fact quite rational, in that as long as many of the instiutional investors keep following whatever the MSM and Trump say, there is more money to be made.

      Reply ↓
      1. Acacia

        Correction: the low was 83.87, and now we’re back up to 85.48.

        It’s absurd, watching how the prices follow whatever DJT says. Looks like super-copium, but I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s just greed.

        Reply ↓
        1. ChrisFromGA

          I’ve started to watch Exxon Mobil and Chevron stocks. They are slightly up for the day, last I checked. They haven’t followed crude futures which is a divergence. I think that may be a hint of what is to come.

          What if the M.O.U. gets signed, but Trump and the Iranians dispute the terms? After all, its only a piece of paper, hardly binding, and its not like we’re all going to be getting a copy that our attorneys can review.

          The Strait stays mostly closed, while Taco lies, lies, lies. Draw downs of the SPR continue into the dog daze of summer. Tank bottom!

          Reply ↓
          1. Oregon Lawhobbit

            What if the M.O.U. gets signed, but Trump and the Iranians dispute the terms? After all, its only a piece of paper, hardly binding, and its not like we’re all going to be getting a copy that our attorneys can review.

            Parties disputing the terms of a written agreement? That’s just crazytalk, Chris!!! Once its in writing it’s a total done deal, set in stone, irrevocable and binding until death do us part. Or the cows come home, whichever happens first. ;-)

            More seriously, a good agreement should have all possible disputes sorted out before signatures. They often are, for that matter. That being said, does anyone think that the agreement incapable untrustworthy US is going to negotiate fairly and honestly?

            As part of our Advanced Property Transaction class we were given a graded segment where we were expected to negotiate a contract with another student. One student was notorious for finishing her negotiating time with her partner, having the partner write up the agreement, then return to the table with the “finished” agreement being her starting point for a whole new round of negotiations.* She considered it “sharp lawyering.” Maybe she’s on the US negotiating “team…”

            Then, of course, there’s the whole point about even if there IS an honest deal between the US and Iran, that’s when Israel and The Lobby will step in to scupper it….

            *I asked the prof to put me with her for the next round, since she was extremely grade-conscious and I, on the other hand, was more than willing to accept a C for the section. He politely declined, largely because he knew me.. ;-)

            Reply ↓
          2. JP

            Exxon and Chevron are both fully vertically integrated. If you want a pure oil price play I would suggest Conoco. Also Total if you want to look beyond the US.

            Reply ↓
        2. John k

          Maybe the market is trained to profit from all of his statements. A day trader I know has been playing the yo-yo in crude for months. So even if they recognize he’s spouting lies, they’re happy to profit off the gyrations.

          Reply ↓
      2. ACF

        Yes
        For sure, traders are exploiting the gullible/a completely mispriced market for huge personal profit
        IBG YBG redux

        Reply ↓
  12. Clueless Joe

    “US claims there is going to be a signing ceremony this weekend in Geneva.”
    Not gonna happen, for a good reason – without even the long history of lies and flip-flops by the Orange one. There’s the G-7 meeting next door in Evian next week, which was scheduled for this weekend and got slightly postponed because Trump has his birthday and wanted to celebrate in the White House with a big MMA contest to boot, and therefore couldn’t fly to Europe and be there already on Sunday, but only on late Monday. I can’t see him allowing to be upstaged by a deal with Iran that he won’t be signing due to his party in DC – but that Vance or Rubio would sign instead.

    On the other hand, this also means that Trump will be way busier than usual from Sunday to Wednesday. I’m curious to see how this will reflect on his rants posting and on his threats. At least, I’d be surprised he would launch a major attack during this time, because he won’t have time to overview it as much as he may want to.
    Meanwhile, Israel or Iran don’t really care about G7 and have no reason to spare them.

    Reply ↓
    1. ChrisFromGA

      I agree. The statement that Vance would sign means one of two things:

      1. It’s a bad deal for him, and Taco wants to distance himself from it; or
      2. It’s yet another lie. No way does he deny himself a photo-op.

      The bickering over what’s in the M.O.U. has already started. I think we get door number 2, and the can stops rattling down the street Sunday evening.

      Reply ↓
      1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

        Alternative point of view: Kushner and Witkoff are not going, either because they refuse to be the faces for the concession, because Trump is fed up with them, or because Trump must now kow-tow to the Iranians and can’t afford to piss them off anymore

        (I don’t quite believe this is the case–yet–but it’s good to consider as many options as possible)

        Reply ↓
    2. Aurelien

      If it’s an MoU then it will be very loosely worded to enable each side to interpret it to its satisfaction. It will normally say that countries X and Y “have reached the following understandings.” An MoU is not a legal document and would not be drafted in treaty language. In practice, it may be no more than a list of things the two sides have agreed to talk about, with perhaps a timetable, and an indication of where some agreement exists. It’s not a “deal,” or an “agreement.”

      It’s almost unknown for Heads of State to sign such things; It may be that Trump’s monumental ego requires that he does so, but normally its left to lower-status individuals who can be disowned if things turn bad.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        Thanks, Aurelien, those are really helpful points. The MoU allows for “loosey-goosey-ness” and we all know that means we’re in for weeks and weeks of bickering and lies from both sides.

        I would go so far as to say I will not believe there is an actual “deal” until the terms are stated with precision, published somewhere where everyone can read them, and ratified maybe by a body such as the U.N.

        In other words, we’re in for weeks and weeks of “rabbit season! duck season!”

        Reply ↓
      2. JonnyJames

        Good points Aurelien, but you may be giving the emperor and the court sycophants too much credit. The emperor’s behavior shows signs of mental disorder, it is quite concerning if one stops to think about that.

        Reply ↓
      3. Paradox of Unrealized Power

        It’s almost unknown for Heads of State to sign such things; It may be that Trump’s monumental ego requires that he does so, but normally its left to lower-status individuals who can be disowned if things turn bad.

        Thanks for the insights. Just to clarify, would it be unreasonable for Iran to demand that Trump in this case sign something just due to its sheer distrust of the US? OR even then, the idea would be to deal with trust issues during the actual negotiations?

        Reply ↓
        1. Aurelien

          Unless it’s a formal treaty, it’s only morally and politically binding, whoever signs it. The optics of Trump actually signing something would be interesting, and I could see the Iranians thinking so as well, but they are only optics.

          Reply ↓
  13. The Rev Kev

    Simplicious the Thinker says that the Iranians threw a spanner in US war plans by taking out an important radar site-

    ‘One of the going theories for why the US so suddenly backed out of prolonging strikes was that in its response, Iran immediately deleted one of the US’s last remaining powerful early warning radars in the region.

    A suspected Iranian ballistic missile slammed into the defenseless AR-327 radar site in Bahrain at 26.0380222, 50.5420750 geolocation. Look carefully below at the red-highlighted rectangle matching the long distance shot of the burning installation to a stock photo of the exact mountain:’

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/trump-backs-down-again-after-blustery

    Reply ↓
    1. XXYY

      I continue to be surprised Iran did not blow up these kinds of things on the first day of the war. They are not armored or disguised, and Iran must have had them all mapped since the time they were built.

      Is there some kind of 11 dimensional chess reason to leave critical military targets standing initially, so you can pick away at them later on?

      I naively think that Iran would have put together a target package labeled “everything the US needs to fight a war against us”, and attached it to a big red button at their military command center.

      It is a war after all.

      Reply ↓
  14. Pensions Guy

    I think Will Schryver may be correct. If Iran took out 2 P-8 Poseidons and then 12 F-35s in a hanger(s) in Jordan, that reminds me of Midway in WWII, where luck and tactics each played a role in the Japanese decision to re-arm their bombers and not put their fighters up in the air. Trump may have tried to conflate the Apache helicopter pilots into some combination of Ensign George Gay (who watched the whole battle of Midway after ditching into the water) and Tonkin Gulf 2.0, leading him to proclaim that he would launch another crippling attack on Iran. Perhaps the military then went to him and asked “With what planes?” As an Air Force veteran, this past year has been just pathetic, including the defenseless FPS-132, the AWACS on the ground in Saudi Arabia (which the Wall Street Journal delicately described as “damaged”), the botched raid on Isfahan, and on and on. I also agree with everyone else that Naked Capitalism has been the go-to source for honest information on this war!

    Reply ↓
  15. Victor Sciamarelli

    When looked under the proper light, I think Trump’s Truth Social Posts are both amusing and pathetic. What else do we expect? When asked about the Iran war, Trump can’t say; I don’t know and he sure can’t say nothing at all. Then what?
    Trump ran a successful tv show. He knows how to make up a story and keep the audience focused until the next exciting episode.
    Trump attacked Iran with stated goals: regime change, no nukes, no missiles, no proxies. The attack failed, and Iran took control of the Strait, fought back hard, and remains resilient.
    Now what? Trump has no military solution but he currently controls the screen play, which like any tv soap opera, he updates daily.
    Meanwhile, Trump takes advice from the same people who advised him to get into this mess. Thus, it will get much worse before it gets better. Robert Barnes is correct; Trump is the dumbest president ever.

    Reply ↓
    1. albrt

      Now that you mention it, this does remind me of the old Mary Worth soap opera comic. The writing was spectacularly bad and slight variations on the same dialogue would be replayed over and over with different artwork, but there was always a picture of Mary looking surprised.

      Reply ↓
    2. JonnyJames

      Yeah, and dumb people “voted” for him twice. Who would vote for amoral, dimwits like Biden or DT? George Carlin was right.

      Reply ↓
      2. Gulag

        “Yeah, and dumb people “voted” for him twice. Who would vote for amoral, dimwits like Biden or DT?”

        What outstanding arrogance.

        You have just condemned most of the voting American public.

        Reply ↓
        1. jobs

          I agree with JonnyJames.

          Those voters could have voted for a non-genocide supporting candidate like Stein or de la Cruz, or stayed home.
          They did neither.

          Reply ↓
          1. Tom Stone

            GMAFB, the Dims threw the Election to Trump by first nominating Biden who was obviously in full blown Dementia, on several occasions during the Campaign he lost track of which office he was running for, FFS.
            And Harris who said “You will get more of the same” which included childhood poverty doubling during the Biden Years.
            Harris sucked her way into the Vice Presidency, bringing a lot of big $ donors with her.
            Keep in mind that Harris initially took a shot at the brass ring and she dropped out because she polled at less than 2% in her Home State.
            She ticked all the IdPol boxes and polled at less than 2% IN HER HOME STATE, which is quite an accomplishment.
            Trump promised change and got the same percentage of votes he had in previous Elections.
            Trump was eminently beatable, but you can’t beat something with less than nothing.

            Reply ↓
  16. The Rev Kev

    ‘Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
    @SecScottBessent
    The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing.
    Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts.
    Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts. Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.’

    You read the replies to his tweet, and there is a lot of support for him-

    https://xcancel.com/SecScottBessent/status/2065052043442552855

    Thing is, when the economy start going over a cliff, his neck will be on the line to formulate a response. And if it does not work, he will be the one blamed. Couldn’t happen to a nicer fella.

    Reply ↓
    1. ACF

      Maybe he’ll quit making a statement that shifts blame away from him

      Though I would love for him (and everyone else) to get the blame they all deserve.

      Reply ↓
    2. John Wright

      Imagine that Bessent truly is able to pull the money from the Iranian accounts.

      Perhaps it is 24 billion USD.

      If Iran suspects the USA will grab the entire 24 billion amount in any case, Iran could see this as the removal of any financial leverage constraints on any future damage Iran might decide to do.

      What can Bessent do? Send Iran a bill for any future damages after the 24billion has been taken?

      Reply ↓
    1. Dr. John Carpenter

      “Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith.” Project much? lol

      Reply ↓
      1. KD

        This always struck me at Trump “accepting the terms of the MOU” unless or until the SpaceX IPO got off successfully. In the first “ceasefire” remember he accepted Iran’s 14-points and then said they hadn’t agreed and claimed it didn’t cover Lebanon.

        Reply ↓
    1. Huey

      Modi’s govt deserves every consequence for cozying up to the west like a lost lamb, especially against their own (nation’s) interests.

      Reply ↓
  20. DD GE

    That was fast.
    The flip-floping frequency is accelerating, it looks like. Does this mean that El Presidente is getting closer to breaking a fuse, I wonder.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      In Oz, we call flip-flops “thongs.” Anyway, maybe people should stand outside the White House waving flip-flops at him to show what they think of his behaviour. Flip-floper Macron has got nothing on Trump.

      Reply ↓
      1. DD GE

        In France we call them “tongs” lol
        Yeah, Macron’s at the same time is more of the snake’s slyness variety.
        Trump is just a wild boar at this point.

        Reply ↓
      2. dave -- just dave

        In the states the use of the term “thongs” for footwear is mostly obsolete to avoid confusion with the similarly-termed skimpy underwear. “Flip-flop” as a term for the sandals is said to have begun to be used for the footwear design in the 1950s, when the design, made of synthetic rubber and imported from Japan, became common for beach use – the sound and the action is the source of the name. Another term is derived directly from the Japanese – “zoris”, variously spelled.

        Reply ↓
      3. JonnyJames

        (In Hawai’i, thongs are called “slippahs”)

        But “flip-flop” may be a reference to flipping pancakes (or burgers) as well, I’m not sure. We see one side of the pancake, and then flip-flopped to the other side? If this is a food metaphor, we could also use “waffle”. Protesters could also show up with some pancakes, but your idea of thongs is better

        Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman

      Every day, we’re dancing on the edge of a cliff. I’m getting exhausted just waiting for us to finally take the global depression plunge already. This is week 14 by my count.

      Reply ↓
      1. Steve H.

        That’s aerobic exhaustion, trying to follow the tap-dancing of the flip-flopping flippety function of Spencer-Brown’s Law of Crossing, attaching a ‘NOT’ function to the previous statement. Moulin Rouge on 2x-speed.

        The anaerobic exhaustion is the grind if Iran decides to impose forty years of sanctions on the rest of the world. Who helped them during the Iraq-Iran War? Syria and Libya are gone. Where was China when the west wall fell? We have to hope a medieval theocracy with a lot of engineers isn’t looking for serious payback. They have to assume they’ll get nuked. Have to. So that’s hard-wired into their plans.

        Here’s an example of an unintended consequence in this. We’d been using Enovid/NoWonder nasal spray for years, but just got our first bottles of Astepro. Enovid came from Israel, and now we are personally no longer supporting a genocidal economy. I believe the manufacturers want to help people, and their product (unadulterated) helps save lives and decrease misery. But their system is untrustworthy. So we’ve cut those ties.

        Peace be with you, Jason Boxman. Take the walk, look at nature, and don’t let the bastards get you down.

        Reply ↓
        1. Tom Stone

          So it’s a Bronze Age theocracy (Israel) Versus a medieaval Theocracy in Iran?
          Too simplistic, to my mind.

          Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev

            It certainly is. At the same time, however, I note that the Bronze Age theocracy act like brutal barbarians while the medieval Theocracy actually values human lives, even those of their enemies.

            Reply ↓
  22. Cocomaan

    Aragachi just announced that a signing is closer than ever. Refuses to name details.

    Cynic in me wonders who in Iran is trading oil futures

    Reply ↓
  23. JonnyJames

    From the Jay Solomon excerpt, which raised a pet-peeve of mine.

    “…From the far-left Democracy Now! and The Nation…”

    Political labels are all too often problematic. Maybe I’m getting old (I turned 60 this year) but back in the day, the “far left” wanted to overthrow the capitalist government, abolish private property, end the capitalist/imperialist wars etc. etc. I do not consider DemocracyNow as “far left” at all. They support superficial identity politics, and are a thinly veiled cheer-leader for “lesser evil” status-quo.

    I find that HypocrisyNow is part of what folks in Langley apparently call the “compatible Left”

    Just yesterday I heard Amy Goodman refer to the Iranian govt. as “regime”. They do this ad nauseam. Prof. Marandi is correct: the “leftish” outlets are just as bad as the so-called right. DNow routinely refer to the Gulf dictatorships and head-chopping Saudi regime as “Gulf states”. while Iran is a brutal regime. WTF? They routinely claim that Iran is a serial violator of human rights, slaughtered peaceful protesters, and have jailed innocent people who advocate for “democracy”.

    They also take every opportunity to smear Russia, and have done for many years. With “far left” warmongers and apologists for genocide, we don’t need no warmongering far-right.

    Reply ↓
    1. Tom Stone

      I met a few leftists growing up in the SF Bay Area, a wobbly who had been tarred and feathered before being run out of town.
      He went back when he recovered but the scars were impressive.
      He hosted Paul Robeson when Robeson came to the Bay Area.
      Yes he was African American and several neighbors came by to “Express their concern” in the days after he first visited our home in lower Piedmont.
      An Anarchist who had served in the Anarchist Brigades in Spain who ran a bookstore on Telegraph ave in Berkeley.
      There were others, all had Moral Courage and integrity.
      They were People I respected, whether I agreed with them or not.
      Cointelpro worked.

      .

      Reply ↓
  24. Cardiac

    Can’t help but wonder if the primary calculus in “canceling the big attack” had to do with the realization that the presumptive Iranian response / escalation / etc over the weekend would require that Trump be in the Situation Room, and that simply conflicted with his birthday plans too much.

    Reply ↓
  25. XXYY

    Chris could fly to Canada and then present himself at a land border, assuming the US has not cancelled his passport, as they did with Edward Snowden when he was in transit. Regardless, this is meant to be and is punitive.

    During the Vietnam war, and perhaps at other times, Canada has provided refuge and a second home for Americans who were being victimized by their own government. I have always felt a great sense of gratitude to Canada for its humanity and willingness to put people ahead of politics (or at least American people ahead of American politics!)

    Now that Trump has stretched this relationship almost to the breaking point, it would be a good time for Canada to resume this service, especially for Americans who have been caught up by modern-day America’s ruthless disregard for its own laws and its own people.

    It would be an easy way to twist the tyrant’s tail and score some points with their brethren below the border.

    Reply ↓
  26. Lefty Godot

    “I find it remarkable that Parsi is framed as a critic of the war for daring to make fact-based assessments.” Isn’t this what happened to Jacques Baud? You can’t be the bearer of bad news in societies run by what Ed Zitron calls “Business Idiots”.

    I don’t know why anyone pays attention to whatever blather Trump vomits up on Truth Social. He is the living example of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. When US officials actually do sign an understanding with Iran, report that. When the US starts bombing, report that. Trump’s deranged carnival barker spiel is unrelated to reality. Unless Iran manages to take out a big chunk of Israel’s leadership, there is no hope of peace, since Israel will continue violating any and every ceasefire and the bought-and-paid-for uniparty leadership of the US will always rush to Israel’s defense when they get missiled for their bad behavior.

    The huge involvement with unreality that our media and population have is baffling to me. Why would anyone believe a word Trump says? Why would anyone with half a brain invest in Musk’s “I wanna be a trillionaire” IPO? Why pretend that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal “in a few weeks” any day now? An endless assortment of delusions…

    Reply ↓
    2. Huey

      I can’t find it now, but there was a video on YouTube’s front page some hours ago (possibly from Reuter’s?) suggesting that once the deal gets signed, oil traffic through the strait would be 100% back to normal right away…

      Reply ↓
    3. rob

      that is the biggest “why” , IMO.
      why does anyone waste their time listening anymore, never-mind wondering whether to believe whatever trump says.
      My guess is most people don’t.
      It is the media who keeps pretending their pet project called “trump”, has legs.
      My personal gripe for the last 40 years, since it became so painfully obvious to me; is that “our problems” are really the outcome of successful propaganda from the establishment media.
      It is a circular trap. we form opinions based on schooling and media/entertainment industry. We feel either supported by one wing of the establishment, or opposed to the other. We are tricked into thinking we have a representative democracy. We NEVER have ANY say in poilicy, but are always wanted to go along with at least some of the continuous stream of BAD choices we are presented with. We watch all those around us in these “insider adjacent professions”, make a lot of money and enjoying the benefits… thinking it’s real… even though they are really just part of the problem. And People do.
      The most realistic thing to me these days is watching this “mass formation” or “mass hysteria” event in motion.people are strange.

      Reply ↓
  27. Alice X

    Jay Solomon:

    …From the far-left Democracy Now! and The Nation to Steve Bannon’s pro-MAGA War Room podcast to television networks CNN, MS NOW, and Al Jazeera, Parsi has said again and again that President Donald Trump faces a quagmire in Iran and that diplomatic accommodation with Tehran’s ayatollahs and generals is the only way out.…

    Far-left? Sheesh! And no far-right descriptor for Bannon et al. Double sheesh!

    Reply ↓
    1. JonnyJames

      I agree, I posted a similar comment earlier but it never appeared.

      For example: HypocrisyNow! routinely demonizes Iran by calling it a “regime” or “brutal regime” while referring to the family dictatorships of the Gulf, as well as the head-chopping Saudi regime as “the Gulf states” and frame the issue as Iran attacking them for no reason. They also take every opportunity to demonize Russia (and to a lesser degree, China) They are not “far left” they are “the compatible left”
      “progressive” warmongers.

      Reply ↓
  28. David in Friday Harbor

    This will continue indefinitely.

    The threat-and-TACO cycle is pure television, likely egged-on by insiders front-running the market gyrations. Lobbing the occasional missile preserves depleted stocks while preventing attacks on the settler-apartheid entity due to the Islamic Republic’s need to preserve retaliatory capabilities. The threat of a ground invasion is a “tell” that this is just posturing; it would be a bloodbath for U.S. forces.

    The ease with which the markets are manipulated is a testament to how Our Billionaire Overlords and Epstein-caste con artists have captured the entire financial system and are fleecing investors who have nowhere else to go. The way that Elon bought-off JP Morgan ought to be criminal. SpaceX shouldn’t even be listed on an index but there it is — and institutions and mutual funds have no other choice but to buy it.

    Trump is living in the 1970’s when he could borrow on inflated asset prices and then sit back and watch as further inflation paid off the debt. When inflation died down he went broke. Listen when he tells us that he loves inflation. He doesn’t care about the damage being done to the rest of us.

    Reply ↓
  29. Don

    I have no eff’ing idea; I have never experienced anything this farcical and am thinking of giving up and going fishing — or perhaps just skipping to Links.

    Is it still worth Ms. Smith’s time to even do an Iran post? It has gotten to the point where I feel that reading it is a waste of time and effort and am just scanning it out of respect for her efforts.

    Reply ↓
    2. Yves Smith Post author

      Yes because as even if this is moving seemingly slowly, this will decisively produce the end of the modern geopolitical order, and perhaps much of our standards of living.

      The longer this goes not resolved, the deeper the global recession/depression will be. Strait of Hormuz more or less shut at end of June = very bad recession even before El Nino multiplier of bad harvests and famine. End of July pushes this into global depression risk terrain. End of August assures it.

      Sadly the reporting on the real economy effects is spotty and still heavy on anecdata.

      Even more so than with the oil cliff, will see massive dislocations once grain harvests come up short relative to the old normal and inventories are run down. I believe the EU does have grain reserves, not sure about other parts of the world.

      Reply ↓
      1. XXYY

        Among other things, these posts collectively will be a fantastic resource for future generations of historians putting together a history of the Iran war, both in the near future, and in the far future.

        For reference, Hunter Thompson has a couple of books that are just compendiums of his day-to-day columns, written when he was a stringer in various South American locations. Even though they were written long ago and far away, they make fascinating reads, almost like a time machine for the reader. Seems like Yves is producing something similar.

        Reply ↓
        1. amfortas

          ive been saving them to a file, if a bit randomly.
          like Yves says, big shit goin down right now.
          world orders dont overturn like a big lake in spring every day.

          Reply ↓
          1. Huey

            This’ a neat idea actually, a nice little local archive. Also, I greatly look forward to the Iran-War posts, even if I only get to read the title before work. Things move really slow until suddenly they don’t and I like being aware of what’s happening generally.

            Reply ↓
      2. Don

        There was an attempt at irony in my comment; it wasn’t my intent to dismiss or disrespect the chroniclers. It’s the events that are astonishingly surreal. This sequence has happened — what — 37, 38 times now?: “we will reduce Iran to a red glow in the sky”/”we will stop the attacks because a new, reasonable Iranian leadership has emerged”/”an entire civilization will be destroyed tonight”/”a peace treaty will be signed in probably a couple of days”/”we will poison their water, salt their crops”/”we will kill them all!”/”they have come to their senses, we will build a beautiful new Middle East together…”

        It’s February 2 every bloody day.

        A totally fake daily posting for tomorrow could be cobbled together from press reports, YouTube interviews, photographs, maps and website punditry from over the last several weeks, with the times and date changed and a few details altered could be presented Guardian-style; 8h ago, 6h ago, 3h ago, 48m ago, etc., and it would be entirely credible. It’s not an issue with the reporting or the analysis, it’s the reality that’s whacko.

        Reply ↓
      3. Alice X

        Indeed! The future is here and its distribution will be soon widely felt. One can look away, or not. I won’t. Thank you!

        Reply ↓
        1. amfortas

          its the ontological crises i was warning about, for 30 years, while everyone was so focused on the teleological or existential crises.

          Reply ↓
    3. viscaelpaviscaelvi

      Yes, the bs levels are such that one may feel tempted to keep only a distant eye on events until something really dramatic happens again. That’s what I am sort of doing myself. The way to do that, though, is to read Yves’ daily digest and disregard any other sources, and thank her for offering us that gift. Imagine having to go through half a dozen sources everyday to get, if you are lucky, a blurry and partial picture of events. Every single day.
      Thank you Yves.

      Reply ↓
  30. Anthony Martin

    There must be some parallels between the dissolution of the USSR and the current state of affairs in the US. My impression is that the corpse first gets cut up and then and, then, divided by the oligarchs. It is a mystery how these new technologies, which promise profit to the owners but no immediate benefit to the consumer or his or her way of life , raise some much cash. In the media, it’s Trump this or Trump that. Trump’s geography lessons are a sideshow. For the oiligarchs, the owners of the ‘country store’, Trump is the quintessential ‘useful idiot’. As far as Iran goes, refer to Occam’s Razor, his confusion and inability to make rational decisions is real and not feigned. What happens in the Gulf may be irrelevant – the Musks, the Beszos, the Waltons, the Theils,, et al march on and over the masses.

    Reply ↓
    1. Safety First

      I don’t know. Possibly if I squint.

      Look, the last 6 years of the USSR are a big and expansive topic. But the incredibly basic story is:

      – New government is installed in 1985 (Gorbachev).
      – Said new government makes an executive decision to dismantle the socialist economy, and begins so to do in 1986.
      – To facilitate the dismantling, a) state propaganda is switched to full-on “Reagan-era-anti-Soviet” mode – gradually, the anti-Soviet peak was hit around 1989; and b) regional bureaucrats were essentially told they’ll be able to secede and run their own fiefdoms, with the KGB reactivating or bolstering nationalist movements by 1987-1988.
      – By 1991 the socialist economy is pretty much over, and the country begins to break apart, but peak capitalism isn’t here yet while the USSR is. So they hold a referendum…where an overwhelming majority votes to keep the USSR, and as a socialist state.
      – In December of 1991 the de-facto rulers of the Russian, Ukrainian and Belarus SSRs dissolve the thing by fiat. With absolutely no preparation (e.g. who gets the debt, who gets the gold reserve, who gets the nukes, etc.) beforehand.
      – Privatizations and laissez faire capitalism ensue, again, pushed from above.
      – Between 1989 and 1993 or so, the bulk of the original cohort who thought THEY would be either running a capitalist Russia or be the beneficiaries of privatizations are pushed out. The NEW generation is where we get the current oligarchs.
      – At some point between 1991 and 1993, the Yeltsin government signs on to be America’s puppet state. This has consequences later…

      So what can we learn from this. Well – one, it was all driven by the “top”, even though the specific “top” changed partway through. Two, legal slash electoral procedures, rules and laws were basically ignored when things were inconvenient for said “top”. Three, the “top” only cared about a couple of specific goals – enrichment via privatizations, for example – and was ready to sacrifice the country’s territorial integrity and, ultimately, its very sovereignty, to get this. Four, while all this was happening, the core of the key stakeholders – old Soviet bureaucracy – stood by as if powerless or were bought off, while the people were heavily propagandized with outright lies (though this last part did not work completely).

      I should also note that from a strictly economic standpoint, the break points at which things started to go bad were roughly 1988-1989, then 1990-1991, then the big wave hit in 1992-1993. When you see people queueing up and empty store shelves, that’s probably from 1989, for example. When you see US food aid and such, that’s 1991. And so forth. The Soviet economy at the end of 1985, 1989 and 1993 were totally, utterly different pictures from one another…but that’s a different story.

      In any event, I see absolutely no conceivable parallels to the road the US is on at the moment whatsoever, and I shall challenge any who question me to a duel at dawn. Provided they can find me. And produce vintage 18th century duelling pistols when they do.

      To be sure, here, we already have an established “top” of, what, 938 billionaires per Forbes? Something like that. Now, the key thing here is finding a motivated group of “doers” and reducing the rest to “passive observers” among this 938. DOGE, to me, was a sneak theatrical preview. Then the other institutional actors also have to adopt the supine position, and we’ve seen at least a tiny smidgeon of pushback (e.g. Trump didn’t get his $1.8 trillion slush fund after all, it seems). My point is, I don’t think we’re there yet, or if we “start to get there” any time soon. But when it comes, it’s probably going to come pretty bloody fast…

      Reply ↓
      1. amfortas

        aye. we here in the us dont have the social cohesion that they had back then.
        nor the social support.
        we will, instead, fly apart like a broken box fan.
        the local warlords will be the first to attempt to put things back together(i have long ago identified the likely wannabes out here, but we are a tiny , isolated polity)…but then bigger and bigger fish will try to glom onto resources and personnel and various infrastructure to build kingdoms for themselves…then even bigger fish…and eventually the oligarchs will emerge from their holes and proclaim that they are here to restore order and save us, and suchlike.
        and thats when gibson’s vision becomes a reality…jackpot=>Klepts running the show.

        if youve got a dr, nurse or pharmacist buddy, dont forget to attempt to squirrel away antibiotics….and only use them when absolutely necessary, and w clear indications of nonviral infection.
        thats one area of prepperdom where i am sorely lacking…altho i do grow quite a few medicinal herbs.
        Tam’s cancer adventure set me back a lot in this regard(and btw this is Tamster Day.she died 4 years and a lil over 4 hours ago)

        Reply ↓
      2. Science Officer Smirnov

        Note the time of US aid to help secure loose nukes (reportedly thousands of “hot-wireable tactical nukes–ie, not crypto protected)

        The program was initiated by the Nunn–Lugar Act (Soviet Nuclear Threat Reduction Act of 1991), which was authored and cosponsored by Sens. Sam Nunn (D-GA) and Richard Lugar (R-IN). The purpose of the CTR Program was originally “to secure and dismantle weapons of mass destruction and their associated infrastructure in former Soviet Union states.”

        —wikipedia

        Reply ↓
      3. Huey

        Many thanks for this history bite!

        The romance of this duel is invigorating, too, though I’d much prefer that it had been for swordplay. There is also, I think, little reason to refute your point. All the same, many thanks again friend.

        Reply ↓
      4. hk

        My two closest ex Soviet friends have somewhat “unexpected” (if you are stereotypical American) but eminently consistent with contemporary public opinion in USSR about the breakup of the union–they absolutely think it was a horrible idea (although they were too young at the time of the referendum–the unexpected part is that one is a Lithuanian and the other has a very stereotypical Ukrainian name, although she is a Russian from St P. The latter, in particular, practically tends to accuse Yeltsin of treason when the topic comes up.

        Agree that nothing comparable in the works in USA yet, and likely a long time to come. The bureaucratic inertia is too great and political talents are in too short a supply. Even if we think Mikhail Sergeyevich screwed up in the medium to long run, he was a gifted politician who was very successful undermining his enemies and getting his way–even if that wound up subverting the bases of the Siviet state.

        Reply ↓
    2. Acacia

      Not at an economic level, but see: Hypernormalization.

      It’s a reading of the USSR that may be useful for understanding what is happening now in the US.

      Reply ↓
  31. Frank

    Report on public awareness of coming gasoline and diesel shortages.
    Here in the southern Greens of VT I heard this while at the local NAPA store: One of the three guys manning the store was on the phone working with a person wanting some kind of filters. When the call ended it transpired that the caller had bought two filters yesterday and wants to buy two more today. The shopkeeper says these filters are pretty expensive -around $300 each and the caller says something about coming shortages.
    Then, the guy asks “do you guys think we’ll have any shortages from the war?” Answers, one pair of shrugged shoulders and one “maybe”

    I told my wife the story when I returned home and she said, ‘the guy wanting the filters reads Naked Capitalism.”

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Wow, thanks! I wonder if someone sent them some of Robert Barnes’ recent remarks, which would confirm their sense from a distance. Or perhaps similar takes from others in proximity to Trump.

      Reply ↓
  34. Darthbobber

    So the main difference between this and previous “deal any day” events is that this time the Iranians are willing to play along to some extent. Though they and Trump seem to be talking about different deals. (And in any case, at best it would be a deal about maybe moving towards an actual deal.)

    Lots of room left for nada but more bombs, missiles and drones to happen.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Yes, that is a key point. It may be possible that an MOU is signed but it seems highly likely things will fall apart pretty quickly. Most importantly, what the US means by “The Strait is open” = status quo ante, while the Iranians propose to manage it but in a best case scenario, with a very light hand.

      Reply ↓
  35. Ben Panga

    Araigchi talking up a MOU signing bigly.

    (All via mid MidEast Spectator Telegram)

    1. Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei: ‘We are currently finalizing the details of the MoU internally and awaiting final approval’

    2.Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, on live TV:

    – Signing an agreement is needed to consolidate the victory that Iran has created on the ground.

    – We’ve reached a final draft for a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding which is now in the final stages of being reviewed.

    – I prefer not to disclose the details of the MoU until it has been finalized.

    – What I can say is that Lebanon will be part of the agreement.

    – There is never a deal in which one side takes 100% and the other side makes all the concessions (i.e. Iran has also made some concessions)

    – There is a good chance the MoU is signed, but until then, things can still go up or down, items can be added or removed, and it’s not final.

    3. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

    ‘As part of the MoU and the ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel will withdraw from all its occupied territories. [BP: I assume occupied territories refers to Lebanon only, not Palestine]

    If these and other obligations are not met, negotiations on a final settlement will not take place.’

    4. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

    ‘The future of the Strait of Hormuz and its management will not be like before.

    Iran and Oman will probably soon issue a joint statement regarding the administration of the Strait of Hormuz.’

    5. ‘According to international law, imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz is not allowed.

    But a type of payment or service fees will be required to pass the Strait of Hormuz. This matter is confirmed.’

    6. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: ‘Iran’s frozen funds will be released if the Memorandum of Understanding is signed

    7. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

    ‘Within the Supreme National Security Council, there are both supporters and opponents of the MoU text. Eventually, a joint decision will be communicated

    8. Iran’s FM: The US insisted on zero enrichment. We opposed it, and in the end, war broke out.

    9.NEW: The UAE will unlock $10 Billion worth of frozen oil revenues to Iran, of which $3 Billion have already been recently delivered in cash, according to Reuters

    Two other informed sources said the amount could be up to $20 Billion, and part of this was agreed in exchange for Iran not attacking the United Arab Emirates during the final weeks of the war.

    10. Iranian MP & member of the Islamabad Delegation, Mahmoud Nabavian:

    ‘Upon seeing the text of the agreement, I must state:

    Compared to the two previous versions, it is more damaging, and Iran’s concessions have increased

    11.Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi [twitter]:

    ‘The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.

    In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.’

    12. Israeli Channel 14:

    ‘At a meeting between Qatari and Iranian representatives on Wednesday, the breakthrough was achieved.

    The terms of the MoU were agreed upon at the level of Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.

    Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, IRGC Commander-in-Chief, was also present at the meeting but did not agree with some of the terms in the text.

    Following the meeting, the text was sent to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, for final approval, which has not yet been granted.’

    Reply ↓
    1. Ben Panga

      Fars Telegram has further quotes from Araighchi’s TV address. Worth reading in full but will copy a couple below [Google translate from Farsi]

      1.Araqchi: Two stages are foreseen in the negotiations; first, a memorandum of understanding, and then the start of negotiations.

      🔹The nuclear issue and lifting of sanctions on Iran have been postponed to the second stage, and 60 days of negotiation time have been foreseen for these issues.

      2.Araqchi: I must say frankly that this agreement has enemies, led by the Zionist regime, who are trying to disrupt it.

      3.Araqchi: The discussion on lifting the naval blockade and the Strait of Hormuz is raised in this memorandum. [BP: unclear how to parse this, wish I could read the original in Farsi]

      4. Araqchi: According to international law, it is not possible to collect tolls from the Strait of Hormuz, but service fees will be collected and this will be established in the negotiations.

      5. Araqchi: How many situations will occur in the 60-day negotiations?

      🔸1. Extending the negotiation deadline if negotiations are progressing well.

      🔸2. Failure to reach an agreement due to the futility of negotiation.

      6. Araqchi: The understanding, if finalized, will be signed digitally and remotely and then announced

      7. Araghchi: In the second phase of negotiations, the issue of lifting sanctions, enrichment, determining the allocation of enriched material stocks, and the mechanism of the Iran Reconstruction Fund will be discussed.

      🔹In our opinion, the only way to check enriched material is to dilute it inside Iran.

      8. Araqchi: The nature of the other side is reneging on its promises and we should expect significant problems in implementation

      🔹We are not faced with beings who are completely committed to understanding, and it is we who must close the doors to non-compliance.

      Reply ↓
      1. Ben Panga

        Unclear (but key) to me at this point:

        Will Iran allow unfettered traffic through Hormuz if/when an MOU is signed?

        Will they then close it again when Israel (or the US) inevitably breaks the terms?

        I guess yes, based on this Araigchi quote (via Fars Telegram):

        Araqchi: Our sword will always be present above the Strait of Hormuz, and whenever necessary, Iranian armed forces will enter.

        And what the heck is a service charge?

        Reply ↓
    2. Tom Stone

      Thank you Mr Panga.
      If the USA were Trustworthy and the Zionist Entity didn’t have Veto power ( With today’s technology you don’t need an Epstein or Maxwell) this would be great news!
      Some refer to this as “Operation AiPac Fury” for good reason, the carrot is $, the stick is often both blackmail
      and the threat of a very well funded opponent in the next Primary.
      Don’t forget that Chess is reputed to have originated in Persia…
      There are three players, Israel playing Checkers, the USA playing Pocket Pool and the Iranians playing Chess.
      For those not familiar with American slang “Pocket Pool” refers to a particular form of wanking.

      Reply ↓
      1. Ben Panga

        Even pocket pool is generous Tom! At Trump’s age that appendage is, like his mouth and his Truth Social account, mostly an outlet for incontinence.

        His strategy seems to be “repeatedly soil your own pants and claim to have fixed the fertilizer shortage”.

        Reply ↓
    3. johnnyme

      This was just posted today:

      UAE Categorically Denies Media Reports Alleging Transfer of Funds to Iran

      The United Arab Emirates has categorically denied reports published by certain international media outlets alleging the transfer of funds from the UAE to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including allegations concerning USD 3 billion.

      In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed that these allegations are entirely false and unfounded, stressing that no frozen Iranian funds have been released, transferred, or facilitated through the UAE.

      The Ministry also called on media outlets to exercise accuracy, rely on official sources, and refrain from publishing or circulating unverified information and unfounded allegations.

      Reply ↓
    4. Jason Boxman

      In a detailed briefing with journalists on Friday afternoon, US officials said the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in return for the US lifting its blockade on Iranian shipping.

      Those steps would come into effect more or less immediately. This would be followed by a 60-day period of negotiation – focusing on Iran’s enriched uranium – an essential ingredient to make a nuclear bomb. Officials said that this would result in all that material being destroyed on site and then removed from the country, though the precise mechanism for doing so is still to be worked out.

      Yeah, so I’m pretty sure that ain’t being agreed to by Iran.

      As for the Strait of Hormuz – the crucial waterway through which some 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally transits – Araghchi said its administration would “no longer be the same as before”. Since closing the Strait, Iran has insisted on a fee to be paid by vessels seeking to cross, with the US insisting passage should be free to all shipping.

      The senior Iranian official also said the MOU envisaged an end to the conflict between Israel and the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Previous reports from the US have suggested Lebanon may not be part of this deal – with Iran reportedly insisting on it.

      And Trump can’t deliver.

      So this is going nowhere.

      https://bbc.com/news/articles/c39y02x98k8o

      Reply ↓
    5. Yves Smith Post author

      This is after he said not to talk about contents.

      I have read tweets that suggest the IRCG did not have a direct line into the talks and its approval now has to be obtained. The IRCG, natch, is hardline. It was an IRCG-connected outlet that leaked the 14 points that freaked Trump out. That indicates they are not prepared to budge, since those are essentially the older terms.

      I said what the US means v. what Irans means about the Strait being open are in different universes. Araghchi effectively confirms that.

      The point about Lebanon withdrawal = no deal.

      Reuters has not been reliable. The $3 billion story could easily be disinfo planted to enrage US Iran haters.

      Reply ↓
      1. Ben Panga

        I think you’re right.

        On the diplomats v IRGC hawks thing: it serves a purpose to project this image too from Iran’s pov.

        I noted Araigchi saying:

        ‘Within the Supreme National Security Council, there are both supporters and opponents of the MoU text. Eventually, a joint decision will be communicated

        It’s unusual as far as I know (which isn’t far) for him to reference division. We know Araigchi is very intentional with his words. He projects that engagement with the MOU thing is reluctant, and further that it’s the guys with the guns and drones and missiles who are most dubious.

        This is a good way to enter the next phase of this bullshit. Reasonable diplomats with an indomitable unshakeable willingness to throw down when needed.

        Our sword will always be present above the Strait of Hormuz

        Is the real nut of this.

        —

        On Reuters: my guess is it’s true but still released to incense as you describe. UAE seems to have gone very rapidly gone from actively attacking Iran to having made understanding or terms of some kind behind the scenes.

        They didn’t get attacked on the last Iran strikes. After having been the most belligerent a few weeks ago. And $3bn is a not much but maybe a gesture of goodwill. From which account I do not know.

        .

        Reply ↓
        1. Ben Panga

          I’ll go one further. Speculating:

          The GCC states in general are ready to accept certain realities: that Iran can easily destroy them, that the US won’t and can’t do shit to help and that Israel is effing Israel.

          Assume a signed MOU. Then a period in which the GCC states continue to talk directly with Iran.

          Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Iran attacks Israel in response. It does not attack the GCC states. It only does that if the US launches an attack on Iran.

          The GCC’s transition away from the US continues, and they have little appetite for US military bases etc in their countries. They are very far from supporting Israel.

          We end up very soon with just Israel v Lebanon with Iran to sort out kinetically.

          And the US relationship to Israel to be tested to eventual breaking point?

          Reply ↓
  36. Tom Stone

    I noticed clear signs of Mental deterioration in Trump last Fall.
    What filter he had dissolved.
    When people speak of Trump having the maturity of a two year old they are not far wrong.
    Having raised a Daughter I have interacted with a lot of Children ( And Parents), Trump strikes me as a spoiled and abused five year old.
    His Personality appears to be fully formed, it’s a sick and twisted Personality warped by vast wealth and a Father who was abusive.
    Emotionally and perhaps Physically abusive.
    Add Dementia to the mix and you get something special.
    It’s going to be a lively Summer.

    Reply ↓
    1. Jacktish

      I once saw pictures of his mother and father. Maybe the pictures were altered somehow, but they surely had a scary monster look about them.

      Reply ↓
      1. paul

        …or watch the ‘news’, which is inspired by C Canute the elderly, but hardly the wise.

        His folks disappeared. (the spirit still yearns, hitller earlier, kallas. vdl currently.

        As privileged people, I wonder if their children dare to ask their parents, why am I so lucky?

        And they will say; we are the chosen class, corks on the wind of other’s effort.
        We are those that convert the energy of moral outrage, pull down the sails and make a tidy sum.

        Reply ↓
  37. Paradox of Unrealized Power

    A few thoughts that I haven’t seen elsewhere–perhaps incorrect:

    1. I have seen many people repeat that Iran destroyed 12 x F-35s parked in Jordan. I am not sure where this number comes from.
    2. Iran definitely destroyed the hangars, though. If 12xF-35s really were destroyed, where are their replacements (if there are any) being parked? (these need to be housed in hangars due to their coating, I think) I am pretty sure that UAE, KSA, and Qatar are likely simply refusing to house them on their soil at this point–UAE seems to have been the slowest to figure things out, but I think they have by now. But I don’t think you are flying these things from Guam, so…Kuwait? Cyprus and Djibouti? Does Cyprus even have room for an extra dozen fighter jets?
    3. If further away than Jordan, refueling is going to become an even bigger issue. Also, the maintenance requirements and readiness of these planes are atrocious, so tempo for prolonged strikes is going to get even worse; in effect, the advantage of “high intensity” air strikes may be somewhat diminished.
    4. Iran struck (I think) at least one more radar besides the one in Bahrain. I am guessing that the implicit warning to Israel is that its remaining high-end radar are next on the list if it doesn’t smarten up, but the remaining radar are on US ships…will be interesting to see if Iran introduces anti-ship missiles after the next strike, and the ramifications if US early warning is more or less reduced to satellites and Turkey’s AN/TPY-2.

    Thoughts? (I could be way off here)

    Reply ↓
    1. paul

      these need to be housed in hangars due to their coating,

      You do have to wonder how these things get by, is the department of war an asset management company?

      We are far away but due to local difficulties, we’ll keep our flat tired ferraris in the shed.

      Last time I was in our local bookshop, harry frankfurter’s most known work was at the checkout desk. I

      wondered if it was a self defense manual or a DIY guide.

      Reply ↓
  38. farmboy

    black Monday, June 22, 2026?
    MrBujok
    @BujokMr
    My updated prediction for next week:

    1. Sunday night/early Monday morning: During the UFC event, reports of a False Flag attack begin to come out, which will be blamed on Iran. Trump officially terminates the ‘peace deal’, and launches a massive operation against Iranian energy infrastructure, resulting in Iran retaliating by taking out the energy infrastructure of the GCC. Markets puke on the open -3-6%, and oil has a massive gap up, but the markets find a small bounce by EOD, on the move up in Space X, and hope for a TACO, which will not come. (Investors will be investing in Space X for their importance in establishing internet/satellite data for the US military, but also GCC countries that are going to suffer from the internet cables being cut by ‘Iran’).

    2. BoJ issues a surprise rate hike (+50bps or +75bps), due to the oil price surge, weakening Yen, and inflation. This catches the markets by surprise, and the panic begins to unwind the reverse carry trade.

    Semiconductors, Ai stocks, US treasuries, & the US dollar gets hit hard, as those assets are sold to defend the Yen. This results in a big rise in US bond yields, which puts further pressure on the US stock market. At the same time as this is occurring, a panic amongst market investors begins, as the rush to unload highly leveraged positions in Ai & semiconductor stocks takes place.

    All of this will be occurring in the backdrop of the Space X options trading becoming available, and a potential gamma squeeze takes place as retail chases Space X, to recover their losses.

    The market will probably hit a circuit breaker, and this will be known as “Black Tuesday”.

    3. With a FED rate hike now expected by Kevin Warsh(elevated CPI, PPI, BoJ..etc), the markets will now be positioning themselves by further selling off interest rate sensitive assets all across the board, in anticipation of the decision. This will have market investors, specifically retail, loading up on puts/shorts. This will most likely be around the time, when Trump issues some sort of statement on the importance of Ai, in American national security.

    Kevin Warsh will come out with a surprise interest rate cut to support market stability, and will provide liquidity to protect the market amidst the panic selling. He will state that all markers of inflation were in the expected range, and that the situation in Iran is a ‘short term operation’, giving the Fed the ability to focus on supporting the market, as risks to national security via Ai implosion (to be blamed on retail Space X frenzy & Japan/Korea), is more important than short term inflation risks, which he will say Ai will help bring about.

    This will cause a massive unwind in a frenzied short covering rally, that will serve as the dead cat bounce to the markets, giving them one last glimmer of hope, amidst all of the panic.

    4. Trump will announce a federal government stake in the top Ai companies, listing the national security threat of China, as the number one priority. This will serve the purpose of one last market blow off rally during Thursday’s Triple Witching.

    Trump will probably announce victory against Iran & their imminent surrender/peace deal on that Thursday. This will be to once again lure the retail public into an exit liquidity trap.

    5. Then we go into the long weekend, and I believe this will be the time where US Marines and the 82 Airborne, will probably be invading Kharg Island & other places, to reopen the Strait, secure the oil, to allow the global energy markets to function, as oil shortages begin to show up.

    6. This invasion turns into an utter catastrophe(on purpose), and markets begin to price in the global energy shock, oil shortages, with bond yields exploding all across the board in Korea, Japan, Europe, Australia, US..etc.

    And then comes the real panic,

    7. BLACK MONDAY JUNE 22, 2026.

    Reply ↓

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *