Author Archives: Yves Smith

Waldman’s Rational Astrologies, or the Use and Misuse of Conventional Wisdom

Steve Waldman at Interfluidity today has an important post on what he calls “rational astrologies” or when it makes sense to hew to widely accepted belief systems, even when you know following them won’t necessarily produce the best outcomes. You really must read his post in full; I think the first part is terrific but have some quibbles when he tries extending his observation.

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Sheila Bair Visits Occupy Wall Street

Sheila Bair, the former FDIC chairman who heads the Systemic Risk Council, and Ricardo Delfina, a fellow Systemic Risk Council member, met on Sunday with members of several Occupy Wall Street working groups: Occupy Bank, Alternative Banking, and Occupy the SEC. I’ve watched presentations by Bair twice previously: once when she was at the FDIC, another not long after she had left government service. Even though she had been pretty direct in those discussions, she was surprisingly specific in this meeting about some of the impediments she faced during the crisis. Some of the topics:

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Markets Applaud Draghi’s New, Improved Kick the Can Down the Road Strategy

On Thursday, ECB chief Mario Draghi announced a bond-buying program that had been largely leaked the day prior, namely that of a new bond buying program, the Outright Monetary Transactions, or OMT. Bond yields in Italy and Spain had already come down on the rumor, and stock markets around the world rallied on the news.

The enthusiasm appears overdone when you look at the sketchy details.

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Exchange Rates and Modern Trade Theory: An Interview with John Harvey

John Harvey is Professor of Economics at Texas Christian University. He blogs at Forbes and is the author of the book ‘Currencies, Capital Flows and Crises: A Post-Keynesian Analysis of Exchange Rate Determination

Interview conducted by Philip Pilkington

Philip Pilkington: Your book seeks to outline an alternative theory of what determines exchange rates in our world today.

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The Banks Are Bluffing – They Aren’t Moving Anywhere

Yves here. This is a subject near and dear to my heart. Banks occasionally harrumph that if regulators are too mean, they’ll just pack up and go somewhere else. That’s complete bluster as far as TBTF banks are concerned. Any major bank needs to be backstopped by a real central bank. The Caymans don’t begin to cut it. And central banks are actually not all that welcoming of world scale players trying to take advantage of the slack they give to banks they’ve been in bed with a long time. UBS considered splitting in two and relocating its investment banking operations when the Swiss National Bank announced it would impost 20% equity requirements. It has concluded it has to stay put.

Andrew Norton debunks another sort of threat made by large banks: that they will move significant activities out of particular financial centers like London.

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How Was Your Vacation Economy?

Given that various seers have become less keen about the recovery thesis, and the Fed is sufficiently concerned that Bernanke has all but promised another round of QE is imminent (as if the last two did much to help people outside the speculative classes), I thought it would make sense to get reader input on what they’ve seen in the last few weeks, particularly if they either live in or visit vacation areas at this time of year.

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Chris Hedges: Hear the 99% Roar

This interview with Chris Hedges on TVO, Ontario’s answer to the BBC, does not appear to have gotten the play it deserves in the US. Hedges discusses Occupy Wall Street from both a strategic and tactical perspective, discussing the conditions that affect the progress and success of revolutions, what he sees as the “no demands” canard, and his criticisms of Black Bloc tactics.

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Time to Rethink a Broken Market

Yves here. Readers are likely to assume that the “broken market” of the headline is US housing related, say the private mortgage securitization market, but the subject is what once was the gold standard of trading markets, equities.

Index Universe has cited a study by the Tabb Group that finds that investor confidence in stock markets is even lower than in the period immediately following the flash crash of 2010. Back then, 53% of respondents had high or very high confidence in the markets, and only 15% weak or very weak confidence. As of its August 2012 survey, the number with positive views and negative views were equal, at 34%. This interview with Chris Sparrow, an expert on high frequency trading, describes why he thinks the market is now fundamentally flawed and what can be done to reform it.

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Wall Street’s War Against the Cities: Why Bondholders Can’t – and Shouldn’t – be Paid

By Michael Hudson, a research professor of Economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City, a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, and author of “The Bubble and Beyond,” which is available on Amazon.

The pace of Wall Street’s war against the 99% is quickening in preparation for the kill.

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Quelle Surprise! Banks Getting Credit for What They Would Have Done Anyhow in Mortgage Settlement

Today, Joseph Smith, the official monitor for the Federal-state mortgage settlement entered into earlier this year with five major servicers, released a glossy initial report on program progress. Needless to say, my cynicism was piqued both by the glossy format of the document and the decision to release it well before the required date of second quarter 2013.

But the distressing part is the way the settlement is playing out according to script.

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