Some investors see the Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for the shipping rates for dry bulk cargoes, as an indicator of international trade activity. BDI is admittedly noisy, and so needs to be interpreted along with other information. Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of […]
Read more...This idea of China being ahead of the game in anything environment protection related probably strikes readers as ironic, given reports of extensive industrial pollution, such as air pollution on a scale that is changing weather patterns, large scale lead poisoning, and cadmium in the soil. As Forbes commented recently, “China: Where Poisoning People Is […]
Read more...This story on Bloomberg, about stockpiling of base metals by Chinese farmers and housewives, highlights a type of speculation that observers in the West haven’t considered deeply. Since these were purchases by individuals, sometimes in the form of scrap, it’s hard to ascertain how significant a factor this activity has been. If nothing else, the […]
Read more...Even though this blog and some others have warned of the vulnerabilty of the greenback to erosion of its reserve currency status, many have dismissed that idea as if it were a lunatic fringe view. Yet pound sterling was once the reserve currency and is no more. Now Pimco has joined the camp of seeing […]
Read more...We’ve been seeing an even higher than usual amount of skepticism on China’s official data releases, as if such a thing were even possible, given the general dim view of Chinese government data. Some observers, including yours truly, had looked to electrical usage as a better barometer of economic activity. Well, it turns out that […]
Read more...Even though China keeps putting out cheery official numbers, its purchases of commodities are down, suggesting there is less to its stabilization than meets the eye. It’s early to say that this is conclusive, but there is a good bit of other anecdotal information and some firmer information raising questions about the true state of […]
Read more...If you think US economic data leaves a lot to be desired, just remember that it looks stellar in comparison to what comes out of China. The latest China fun facts versus relentlessly upbeat official figures roundup comes with the help of reader Michael. First is that China has been reporting decent growth, with the […]
Read more...Reader Jason Pl pointed out this post from Jon Taplin, which starts with the less than cheery chart on US durable goods production courtesy Floyd Norris. As you can see, the only growth biz is military: Military contracting procedures means that work will stay with domestic players. So one could take the cynical view that […]
Read more...In a Financial Times comment. Michael Pettis gives a well-reasoned and glum forecast for Chinese growth, namely, that it is unlikely to exceed 5% to 7% over the next few years. The reason he sets forth is that China was able to show growth rates in excess of domestic consumption growth thanks to US exports. […]
Read more...We’ve been told that one of the reasons China is allegedly faring less badly than might be expected, given than big creditors tend to take it on the chin worse in global crises than debtors, who can simply default, is that its economy was actually more reliant on domestic capital spending than exports as a […]
Read more...China has had two failed bill auctions this week, due to fears the government, which has started to raise rates, will continue down that path to curb money supply growth. Yet with growth flagging (anything under 8% is inadequate to absorb new workers), choking off stimulus now does not seem well timed. From Bloomberg: China […]
Read more...Lordie, is the media incapable of doing anything more than writing up official remarks? This is the latest headline, the lead story on the Bloomberg home page right now: Dollar Gains as China Says ‘Not Aware’ of Reserve Currency Talk That is a very curious remark, given that the central bank, a mere week ago, […]
Read more...Um, how come this story is in the Sydney Morning Herald (as of about 20 hours ago) and not the US/UK business media? This is a pretty major development. Yes, commodities heavy Australia is most affected, but Oz is hardly alone in seeing the ramifications. While the US dollar is weakening, the Australian dollar has […]
Read more...Readers may recall that it wasn’t all that long ago that China’s banks were sitting on big losses and the analysts debated how bad the mess was. In 2003, for instance, the damage was pegged at $500 billion, a stunning figure given the size of the economy, and meant the banking system was insolvent. Even […]
Read more...If Alan Greenspan were serious about rehabilitating himself, he could hire himself out to central banks and instruct their officials in the art of Looking Serous and Appearing to Say Important Things While Actually Communicating Nothing. This is a crucial skill for anyone in an important bureaucratic position. The Chinese could use a few lessons. […]
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