I’m just a wee observer of skeptical temperament. A move of this magnitude based on one analyst’s reading seems a bit disproportionate. Even Abby Joseph Cohen and Mary Meeker didn’t have this sort of sway in their heyday. However, contracts that far out are thinly traded, so it doesn’t take much of a change in […]
Read more...I am leery of featuring one writer too often in succession (Martin Wolf is a notworthy exception). However, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard presents a thesis that I thought would lead to some informative reader comments. In “The crisis rotates from America to Europe, and Asia,” Evans-Prichard argues that many of the world’s other large economies will start […]
Read more...The great imperial struggles of the 1800s were over control of strategic or otherwise prized resources, and the hostilities they generated helped stoke World Wars I and II. Many believe the Iraq war was all about oil. China is considering adopting a contemporary variant of the colonial model. A Ministry of Agriculture proposal suggests that […]
Read more...Well, Buiter did not go quite as far as I suggested in the headline. He recommended a 1500 year pause. This post made me realize why I have a certain fondness for Buiter. It’s not that I agree with his argument (I hate to confess, I have come to be completely bored by the event, […]
Read more...Alliance: When two thieves have their hands so deeply plunged into each others’ pockets that they cannot separately plunder a third party. Ambrose Bierce, The Devil’s Dictionary The US and China bicker like an unhappily married couple, but Brad Setser warns us that the squabbling is getting nastier. And worse, both parties seem to fail […]
Read more...We commented the other day on the surprisingly large jump in China’s foreign currency reserves, noting that the monthly gain wa the biggest on record, when an appreciating yuan ought to put the growth in reverse (although one must note that the yuan hasn’t gained much if any ground relative to non-dollar currencies). I’m following […]
Read more...In a very bad bit of news for the US, the Los Angeles Times (hat tip Lune) reports that the Chinese policy of letting the yuan appreciate has not succeeded in reducing the country’s massive increases in foreign reserves. In fact, the situation is getting worse rather than better. Normally, when a country’s currency appreciates, […]
Read more...I am late to this story, which ran Thursday in the Financial Times, but is sufficiently important as to merit comment (and my quick search of the usual suspect blogs showed it went unreported there too). The Chinese temporarily suspended tax collection on mutual funds to bolster share prices. China’s stock market, which has been […]
Read more...David Roche, who heads Independent Strategy, a London-based investment consultancy, argues today in the Financial Times tha the bull run in commodities is soon to come to an end. A big factor in the outlook for commodities is whether you believe our credit crisis will lead to inflation or deflation. Bernanke’s aggressive rate cuts and […]
Read more...Asian markets opened lower, then took a nosedive after the release of a report that troubled mortgage bond hedge fund to Carlyle Capital failed to reach a standstill with creditors (hat tip reader cb). The Nikkei fell 3.5% to 12,400. The dollar dropped to 100 to the yen. I bought yen at around 111 in […]
Read more...Today we offer two contrasting takes on the commodities market, although they are also looking at very different issues. The post immediately prior to this one, on Martin Wolf’s worries about the impact of commodities price rises, contrasts with Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s view that in many commodities markets, the recent price spikes are driven more by […]
Read more...Fresh water is increasingly scarce, particularly in China. The average annual supply, per capita, is 348 cubic meters. The UN defines anything below 1000 as a water shortage. Beijing residents have only 250 cubic meters. Plans to divert water from the northeast provinces to Beijing and some hydropower projects will have dire consequences for millions […]
Read more...The repeated rounds of Fed rate cuts have led the dollar to fall against most currencies save those maintaining currency pegs. While the yuan has appreciated somewhat, it hasn’t been sufficient to have much impact on Chinese trade surplus with the US (2007 was a record year). And because China and its peers are having […]
Read more...Today’s Telegraph has a good piece, “Japan is the next sub-prime flashpoint,” by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. And before I get to the piece, I want to say a few things about the author. A number of readers detest Evans-Pritchard, and I am at a loss to understand why. He wears his biggest fault on his sleeve, […]
Read more...A comment by Kenneth Rogoff in the Financial Times argues that rapidly growing emerging markets exhibit periods of crisis, and China has a long list of possible causes. Yet policymakers, focused on slowing US growth and financial institution stress in the US and Europe, have overlooked the problem that a sudden slowdown in China could […]
Read more...