Category Archives: Credit markets

Lehman Options Limited; Firm Hires Bankruptcy Attorneys

The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal provided Saturday afternoon updates on Lehman. The discussions increasingly acknowledge that a deal may not be in place by Sunday as initially hoped (understandable, given the authorities’ unwillingness to provide support and the near-impossibility of doing adequate due diligence in a few days) and have moved […]

AIG: Stock Falls 30%, Bonds and Credit Default Swaps Trading at Distressed Levels

Even though all eyes have been on Lehman, the potentially more troubling slow-motion train wreck is AIG. The insurer is a large credit default swaps protection writer and provides a host of financing products. Not only is AIG a larger firm than Lehman and could trigger a systemic event in the CDS market alone, but […]

Emergency Fed Meeting: Paulson and Fed Attempt to Jawbone Wall Street to Rescue Lehman

Not surprisingly, it appears increasingly unlikely that private parties are wiling to take on a company that is pretty certain to have negative net worth, particularly when the point of a deal is to have someone, anyone take on the liabilities. But the Fed and Treasury are equally unwilling (at least as of now) to […]

Financial Times: BofA, JC Flowers, CIC Joint Lehman Bidders

The Financial Times tells us that a consortium, Bank of America, bank investor JC Flowers, and Chinese Investment Company are pursuing a joint bid for Lehman. At least on paper, this makes far more sense than a solo BofA bid. The bank already has a garbage barge on its hands in the form of Countrywide, […]

Lehman: Deal Sought Before Monday; BofA Most Likely Suitor (Updated Again)

News reports appear to be converging on the hoped-for end game for Lehman. Whether that will come to pass is another thing entirely. First, the Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal all report that the Fed and Treasury are brokering a deal, but are trying to avoid the use of public funds. […]

Central Banks Anticipate "Mother of Year-Ends" ‘Liquidity Crunch

We noted a few weeks ago that between large amounts of short term financial firm debt maturing in the third and fourth quarters, banks still leery of lending to each other, and liquidity always lower at year end (banks pull back from the market to square off their books), this November-Decemeber looks to be even […]

Freddie, Fannie Credit Default Swap Woes for Insurers, Hedge Funds

We had said a couple of days ago that while the conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie looked to be a credit event for credit default swaps, meaning they would trigger payment, we did not see this being a financial event (presumably there would be no loss, with the Treasury assurance to prevent a negative net […]

$1.4 Trillion of GSE Credit Default Swaps Triggered by Bailout

Bloomberg points out what some observers have already mentioned: putting Freddie and Fannie into conservatorship is a credit event as defined in credit default swaps (note defintions are sui generis, but this one was evidently close to universal in these agreements). Due to the Federal assurance that positive net worth will be maintained, this ought […]

Poole: GSE Bailout is "Stopgap", Expects Up to $300 Billion of Losses

It will be interesting to see if this dose of cold water from former Fed governor William Poole will take any sizzle out of the forceful equity rally (the Nikkei is up 425 points as of this writing, and US stock futures say the US markets will also show an impressive move up). From Bloomberg: […]

Paulson Sanity Check

Sorry to be a bit heavy on Fannie and Freddie, but this is a historic event. These statements came in a five paragraph section in a New York Times article: Mr. Paulson added a mantra of his own: he privately said he didn’t want to “kick the can down the road” and leave the problems […]

Freddie, Fannie Notable Comments (Mainly Not Pretty)

Not only is the commentary in the blogosphere on the Freddie and Fannie bailout program pretty skeptical, but even some normally staid MSM commentators have an eyebrow cocked. There is a comprehensive list of links on Freddie and Fannie from Barry Ritholtz. This post serves a different purpose and serves up some choice bits: Mohamed […]

Initial Negative Indicators on the GSE Bailout

Even though the stock markets are over the moon as of this hour (the Nikkei up nearly 440 points, other Asian markets up over 3%, bank stocks up even more), the all-important question is the reaction in the credit markets. It is far less enthusiastic. One might charitably call it underwhelmed. From John Jansen: I […]

Freddie, Fannie and (Sort of) Federal Home Loan Bank Bailout

The deed is done. Freddie and Fannie are now officially in conservatorship. Uncharacteristically, I listened to the presentation by Paulson and Jim Lockhart, which was thin on details (particularly size of new facilities and investments). The bombshell was the aside that not only is there to be a new secured lending facility for the GSE […]

NY Times: Freddie Overstated Its Capital

The New York Times, in “Loan Giant Overstated Its Capital Base,” sets forth an interesting bill of particulars as to where Freddie deviated from what one might consider a full and fair statement of its financial condition. Indeed, the article says that the widely-expected Sunday intervention was triggered by the GSE’s regulator determining that the […]

NY Times: Fannie, Freddie Nationalization (aka Conservatorship) Imminent

Guess the powers that be were unwilling to risk playing chicken with the markets and losing. So much for the theory espoused by some that the government couldn’t put the GSEs into custodianship absent a breaching of statutory minimums (technically, by being insolvent under the “fair asset” valuation method, Freddie is already on plenty thin […]