Category Archives: Dubious statistics

Eurostress quick take

Richard covering for Yves here, in case that maritime internet connection, which seems OK for terse emails, is not so great for navigating 100 eurowebsites, to whizz through as much detail as possible. Just seven failures, making Chris Whalen’s EU stress tests: who knows, who cares? the main takeaway, I suppose. Not enough blood to […]

Hopelessly optimistic techies

If only it was that easy. First sentence: “Pick up a piece of text and start reading and it usually becomes clear pretty quickly whether you’re reading a nonfictional news story or a fictional novel.” They lost me right there. Hat tip to Alea.

The bailouts continue: The Economic Populist

Cross posted from The Economic Populist. By Garrett Johnson Most people think that the Wall Street bailouts ended at least a year ago. They would be wrong. (Reuters) – Increased housing commitments swelled U.S. taxpayers’ total support for the financial system by $700 billion in the past year to around $3.7 trillion, a government watchdog […]

The Summer(s) of Our Discontent

Crossposted from New Deal 2.0 Another volley from Marshall Auerback, Senior Fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, and a market analyst and commentator. Larry Summers’s misguided approach to deficits and surpluses could strangle our long-term vitality. Virtually every profile on Larry Summers tells us that he is one of the most brilliant economists of his generation, […]

Is the Fed Happy with the Crappy Economy?

Is the economics version of defining deviancy downward mean that the new normal of high unemployment and inadequate job growth is seen as acceptable by policymakers (at least those not up for re-election this November)? It’s one thing to recognize that we are working through a painful hangover after a private sector borrowing binge that […]

Greece is Restructuring Debt Now

The alert John Dizard of the Financial Times has taken notice of a development that has passed most commentators by, namely, that Greece is starting to restructure state debts. This hasn’t yet gotten the attention it merits because it’s bonds issued by particular government bodies (in this case, the Greek state hospital system) and the […]

Big Pharma Research Cost Defense of High Drug Prices Debunked in Study

Readers may know I have perilous little sympathy for Big Pharma. The industry too often wraps itself in the mantle of science, in particular, claiming its needs its high profits and hence high prices to support its research and development efforts. In fact, it spends more on marketing than on R&D (and perilous few industries […]

More Evidence That Eurobank Stress Tests Are a Garbage-In, Garbage-Out Exercise

The stress tests conducted on 19 large American banks by the US Treasury in 2009 were an amazingly effective exercise in salesmanship and sleight of hand. Banking industry experts, including Bill Black, Chris Whalen, and Josh Rosner, dismissed the process as mere theatrics: too little staffing and not enough “stress” in the economic forecasts and […]

Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank Rumored to Pass Meaningless Stress Test

So it looks to be semi-official. The “stress test” label, in Europe as in the US, signifies an exercise that is designed to produce attractive report cards, as opposed to provide a valid measure of the sturdiness of a bank’s balance sheet in difficult conditions. So what is the biggest concern investors and counterparties have […]

Double Dip Recession Talk Bustin’ Out All Over

I’ve been quite mystified at all of this “double dip” recession talk, even though I suppose it beats the “V shaped recovery” talk. Both presuppose that we had a recovery underway, the real sort, not the type that is mainly the artifact of inventory restocking, halting and sometimes covert stimulus, (like hiring unprecedented numbers of […]

CBO Issues Fed-Flattering Propaganda

I’ve seen some eye-poppin’, credulity-stretchin’ accounts in my time. The report “The Budgetary Impact and Subsidy Costs of the Federal Reserve’s Actions During the Financial Crisis,” just released by the Congressional Budget Office, ranks with the most extreme. It claims that the budgetary cost (which corresponds roughly to expected losses) of the Fed rescue facilities […]

German Households Owe More Than Greece’s Do

Be careful about your cultural stereotypes! From Bloomberg, via Marshall and Andrew: Update: Hah! I missed a post from Mark Thoma that also shows that Greeks work more hours than Germans, a LOT more.