Category Archives: Dubious statistics

Bill Black: No, Mr. President, you did not negotiate a winning tax deal

By Bill Black, Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a former senior financial regulator

This column analyses Obama’s claim that he got the better of the Republicans in the negotiations.

The administration (implicitly) argues that its claim of extraordinary negotiating success represents a miraculous accomplishment given the facts that the Republicans were holding all legislation hostage to their non-negotiable demand that the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest of Americans be extended and the administration’s irrevocable decision that it could not call the Republican’s bluff because the economy would likely sink back into recession unless tax cuts for the middle class were immediately passed…..

The third problem is that no element of the claimed miracle is true….

Wikileaks Disses Chinese GDP Stats

We’ve harrumphed more than occasionally on the dubious quality of Chinese official releases (see discussions on GDP, inflation, and other drive-by-data-shootings for a selection of past grumblings).

So we are delighted to see that Wikileaks is on this beat too. From a March 2007 cable on a discussion between Clark T. Randt and “Fifth Generation Star Li Kequiang”:

Bloggergoof

I claimed the other day, from memory, that the Landesbanken plus Deutsche had dumped EUR35Bn in the Iceland crash. That’s a spectacular claim, but unfortunately not at all true. A bit of polite throatclearing from commenter Hubert got me to dig through the bankruptcy wind-ups of Kaupthing, Glitnir and Landsbanki. Based on a wikileak of […]

Jim Quinn: Lies Across America

Yves here. While Quinn has a deliberately (some might say overly) provocative style and I quibble with some of his supporting arguments, his overarching observation, that America is wedded to an economic model past its sell by date, and that model has damaging social and political consequences, is one I believe will resonate with many […]

Systemic coupling round-up

Time to count up the systemic implications of the Irish crisis, following up on some of today’s links and other news. First, the usual contagion to Portugal and Spain is now in full swing, propelled by another barrage of bumbling Euroannouncements: Weber announced that if necessary, the EU would increase the ceiling of the EFSF […]

Ramming home the lesson from Ireland

Spotted this just after today’s Ireland post. I reckon NC’s UK and US readers and others will have got the idea of ‘extend and pretend’ , aka ‘forbearance’ already; always good to see it getting called out again though.

“Waiting for Godot”, or “Endgame”?

No formal announcement yet, but some presumably well-sourced rumours about the size of the Irish bailout (EUR 85Bn), and the rate (7%, via the redoubtable Twitterer on all matters Irish @LorcanRK). While we await the budget statement, there are reasons to suspect, or hope, that the bailout, like Godot, will never come, because it’s failing […]

Robert Shiller Advocates and Engages in NewSpeak and Dubious Analysis in NYT Piece

As an article in today’s New York Times makes clear, Robert Shiller has joined a group of behavioral economists that is advocating the use of propaganda and the sublter forms of manipulation of the public that Walter Lippmann famously called “the manufacture of consent.” In one sense, this ugly development is coming full circle. Lippmann […]

Alford: The Fed Tests The Thesis That Two Wrongs Don’t Make A Right, But Three Do

By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. In reaction to the OPEC-engineered oil price spikes of the 1970s, which economists would depict as external negative supply […]

Obama No Longer Bothering to Lie Credibly: Claims Financial Crisis Cost Less Than S&L Crisis

I’m so offended by the latest Obama canard, that the financial crisis of 2007-2008 cost less than 1% of GDP, that I barely know where to begin. Not only does this Administration lie on a routine basis, it doesn’t even bother to tell credible lies. .And this one came directly from the top, not via […]

Guest Post: Tim Geithner’s Magical Mystery Tour Of TARP Propaganda Has Little Use For Truth

By Dr. Pitchfork, an iconoclast who writes at Daily Bail. In “5 Myths About TARP,” Tim Geithner joins Steve Rattner and Herb Allison in the parade of Washington insiders who have gone out of their way to tout the great success of TARP, calling it the “most effective government program in recent memory.” If you […]

Google Now Encroaching on Shadow Stats

Hhm, is there any use of data that won’t in the end interest Google? The idea of using price information on websites as a way of developing an inflation index is clever, but I wonder how they will deal with the issues that bedevil statisticians, like discounting (I can tell a gym in my area […]

Is Your Economy Out of Recession?

A lot of commentators, including your truly, took issue with the NBER announcement that it had deemed the US economy to have exited a recession as of June 2009. I thought it might be useful to get a more nuanced reading of conditions on the ground from readers. So please weigh in: do you see […]

Greece: The Lady Really Doth Protest Too Much

We have the specter of Greece’s finance minister insisting really, no really, it will never never default, or default via restructuring. Now given the unfortunate accident of timing, these protests sound awfully Dick Fuld like, although the better parallel is probably Mexico, which kept insisting in 1994, no way, no how would it need to […]