Category Archives: Economic fundamentals

China’s Ultimate Debt Holders—Not the Borrowers

In China, things are not looking pretty.

When Too Much Housing is Bad for Our Health

Yves here. It’s intriguing that “our economic model is based too much on the housing market” is becoming a meme a mere six years after housing bubbles in most advanced economics were a major driver of the global financial crisis.

Why You Should Not Be Enthusiastic About Janet Yellen as Fed Chairman

While it’s a relief to have Larry Summers out of the running for the Fed chairmanship, it’s also important not to labor under any delusions about Janet Yellen, the nominee presumptive.

All Eyes on the Fed Taper

By Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. You can follow him on Twitter at @leithvo. Cross posted from MacroBusiness

It’s all about the FOMC meeting at 04:00 AEST tomorrow morning and to be honest nothing else really matters. Ben Bernanke speaks 30 minutes later at 04:30 AEST and the chairman’s speech will also be highly watched, potentially increasing volatility across the board.

Yanis Varoufakis: Why Asymmetrical Monetary Unions Are Bound to Fail

Yves here. This post may strike some readers as a bit wonky and a bit too well-fitted to the woes of the Eurozone. Varoufakis argues that it has broader applicability. And consider: our Richard Smith has speculated that the US civil war was really the result of a strained currency union. I’m not terribly knowledgeable about the economics of 19th century America (I studied England and France during that period instead) but on a first pass, Varoufakis’ ideas appear to have some relevance for that period as well.

The G20 St. Petersburg Summit: Bubbles, Casinos, and Inactivity

By Sameer Dossani, an advocacy coordinator at ActionAid International, a development NGO dedicated to ending poverty. Cross posted from Triple Crisis

While much of the media coverage around the G20 leaders summit has been about the failure of international diplomacy in Syria, the formal agenda was around one issue: growth. But focusing on growth is a bit like treating strep throat with asprin. You may alleviate some of the symptoms, but you’re not treating the source of the problem.

Wolf Richter: Housing Bubble In Full Bloom, Zany Price Increases, And Now A Sudden Slowdown

Cities have seen dizzying home-price increases that are giddily reported and infused with pandemic housing hype and trillions from the Fed into a self-propagating force. But what happens when it hit the immovable object of higher mortgage rates?

Michael Klare: DoE Forecasts No Meaningful Change in Fossil Fuel Use by 2040

Yves here. While this post focuses on a newly-released Department of Energy forecast, and forecasting is always a fraught exercise, there’s good reason to see it as realistic. It reflects the power of inertia and entrenched interests. If anything, you’d expect the DoE to present a hopeful outlook on the growth of eco-friendly power sources, given how often Obama talks about “green energy” and “green jobs,” but the authors appear to have steered clear of undue optimism.

David Dayen: BofA/Merrill Lynch Analyst Says QE and Housing Policy Boosting Inequality

Anyone surprised by the housing recovery is simply blind to the context that the Federal Reserve has administered a bazooka full of aid and comfort over the past few years. They bought up enough mortgage bonds to force interest rates to near-record lows, boosting the fortunes of asset holders. And in so doing they made housing an attractive investment product, bringing lots of Wall Street cash into the REO-to-rental play, at least for a short while. That predictably increased demand and put housing prices on their current trajectory.

As Austerity Lifts, So Does Europe

Another good week for Europe as the latest PMI data shows the tentative recovery is gaining pace.

Eurozone manufacturing recovery gathers pace in August

• Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 26 – month high of 51.4 in August (July:50.3)
• Growth improves in Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria and Ireland.
• Input prices broadly unchanged since July

Bill Black: The New York Times is Wowed that Obama’s Six Rubinites Support Larry Summers

The Obama administration, for reasons that pass all understanding, has been running a campaign of leaks disparaging one of Obama’s few senior female appointees, Janet Yellen. Her high crimes include not being a protégée Bob Rubin and doing exceptionally well in economic forecasting. Rubin wants the job of Fed Chair to go to his top protégée, Larry Summers. Yellen, as Vice Chair of the Fed stands in the way of Rubin’s ambitions. (Rubin is too toxic to take the Chair directly.) The administration has been leaking primarily to the New York Times’ Binyamin Applebaum. His latest article contains this remarkable statement, without analysis…

Dan Kervick: Hyper-Endogeneity

By Dan Kervick, who does research in decision theory and analytic metaphysics. Originally posted at New Economic Perspectives.

Some people believe in endogenous money. They believe we live in a monetary system is which money is generated and extinguished as part of the ordinary flow of everyday economic activity. The economy tends to generate the money it needs in order to satisfy the exchange desires and saving preferences of participants in the economy, and to extinguish the money it doesn’t need.

The endogenous money picture is in some considerable tension with the idea that the monetary system is controlled by the government. The alternative exogenous money picture holds that the issuance and destruction of money is a task reserved for government alone, and that the total amount of money present in the economy is therefore a government policy choice.

Wolf Richter: German Election Finally Gets Messy: “Euro Is More Than A Currency” And Greece “Shouldn’t Have Been Allowed In”

No debacle is allowed to interfere with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s efforts to hang on to her job, and any debacles get swept under the rug at least until after the elections on September 22. Every time uppity opposition voices stir up some controversy, it’s brushed off, denied, ridiculed, or minimized – and it has worked admirably well so far.

Even Edward Snowden’s revelations day after day in Der Spiegel – which had received copies of documents detailing German involvement in NSA spying activities, among other sins – were successfully shuffled off. Though the discussion continues to be heated, it is, like in the US, a bi-partisan debacle, compromising political figures from both sides. The scandal is spreading and festering, but apparently without political fallout.

Jayati Ghosh: None of the Experts Saw India’s Debt Bubble Coming. Sound Familiar?

So now India is the latest casualty among emerging economies. Over the past 10 days, the rupee has slid to its lowest-ever rate, and the Indian economy may well be on the verge of a full-blown currency crisis. In this febrile situation, it is open season for rumours and pessimistic predictions, which then become self-fulfilling.

This means that even if there is a slight market rally, investors quickly work themselves into even more gloom. Each hurriedly announced policy measure (raising duties on gold imports, some controls on capital outflows, liberalising rules for capital inflows and so on) has had the opposite of the desired effect. Everything the government does seems to be too little, too late – or even counterproductive.

David Dayen: Fast Food, Retail Worker Strikes Actually Honor King Legacy

The March on Washington’s 50th anniversary resulted in two commemorative events, including the one Saturday with comments by Eric Holder and Nancy Pelosi, and the one yesterday with a speech by President Obama. Needless to say this is a bit of an inversion of the original message of a March ON rather than WITH Washington. So I would say that the major tribute this week to the legacy of that march, a march for jobs and freedom, is actually today’s national retail worker strike for a higher wage, which takes what had been a one-off model and expanded it. Events are expected in 35 cities, maybe more. And where the initial events were just with fast-food workers at places like McDonald’s and Wendy’s, apparently workers at retailers like Macy’s are involved in some cities.