A post by Edward Harrison. Earlier today, I had a brief e-mail exchange with Marshall Auerback in which I said that I had basically thrown in the towel on US (and global) policy makers. Early on in this crisis, I had advocated a number of policy paths which I think would have been infinitely superior […]
Read more...By Gonzalo Lira, a novelist and filmmaker (and economist) currently living in Chile In 1982, many of the banks hit by the Latin American debt crisis were effectively insolvent. Paul Volcker, as the then-Chairman of the Federal Reserve—charged with overseeing the banking system—effectively cast a blind eye on this banking insolvency. Volcker’s reasoning seems to […]
Read more...As expected, Treasury has put off a decision on whether to label China a currency manipulator for a few months, pending negotiations with China. The problem is, however, is that China has been signaling that it is pretty non-negotiable (yes, there has been the occasional conciliatory remark, but they have been notably few and far […]
Read more...A post by Edward Harrison Recently, I wrote a post which examined three different reasons the savings rate in the US could have been falling over the last year. Rebecca Wilder thinks this is a meaningless exercise: Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns is theorizing why the saving rate is falling when it should be rising, […]
Read more...One argument we have made, which some readers find difficult to accept, is that China’s keeping its currency, the renminbi, at artificially cheap levels is tantamount to an across-the-board export subsidy (the proof that the RMB is artificially cheap comes via the fact that China has had to engage in massive dollar purchases to keep […]
Read more...Independent Strategy’s latest report, “China’s credit bubble: the missing piece in the jigsaw” makes a persuasive case that China’s debt fueled growth model is due for a hard landing, but the timing is uncertain, since the debt is funded internally. China is barely past an episode of dealing with banks chock full of bad loans […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. Wide swaths of families, businesses, investors, taxpayers, and others have had not just their net worth but their lives […]
Read more...By Marshall Auerback, a fund manager and investment strategist and Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of The Richebacher Letter, and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute Who funds our budget deficit? It is a question taking on increasing significance, given the recent back up on longer-dated bond yields, which […]
Read more...By Marshall Auerback, a fund manager and investment strategist who writes for New Deal 2.0. Arthur Conan Doyle’s literary creation, Sherlock Holmes, once solved a murder by noting the dog that didn’t bark. It doesn’t take Holmes’s ingenuity to see that the plan on offer for Greece is clearly a rescue package which doesn’t rescue. […]
Read more...Andrew Dittmer, who was an important collaborator on ECONNED, sent me pdfs of the notorious Citigroup Plutonomy reports for leisure reading. Michael Moore highlighted these two research reports (2005 and 2006) in Capitalism: A Love Story . On the one hand, the authors, Ajay Kapur, Niall Macleod, and Narendra Singh get some credit for addressing […]
Read more...A post by Edward Harrison. Edward Chancellor, author of the seminal book on financial speculation and manias “Devil Take The Hindmost,” is now turning his eyes to China. He sees a number of red flags which point to excess in China. Chancellor writes: In the aftermath of the credit crunch, the outlook for most developed […]
Read more...While we have enjoyed a period of relative calm after the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the improvement in economic conditions exists in parallel with growing geopolitical tensions. None of the causes of the crisis have been resolved. We still have global imbalances. We still have powerful, predatory, and unconstrained capital markets players firmly in control of […]
Read more...The widely-extolled idea, that the EU would find a way to muddle through the Greece crisis, looks very much in doubt. The pressure has not simply put the rescue of Greece into disarray, but appears to have led to some positions being taken that, if they hold, could lead to the partial dissolution of the […]
Read more...I don’t mean to beat up on Spencer at Angry Bear, who has provided an interesting set of comparisons on the perennial question of many investors, “Whither the stock market?” But one section of his discussion, precisely because it is such conventional thinking, is an illustration of how the blind pursuit of “maximizing shareholder value” […]
Read more...By Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of The Richebacher Letter, and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute who writes at New Deal 2.0 After a slugfest on fiscal deficits, I find that the question of hyperinflation now demands an answer. And here it is: fiscal deficit spending may be […]
Read more...