The headline statistic, which comes out of a study by the non-partisan California Budget Project, in isolation sounds worse than it is (which is not to say that this factoid is good, mind you). Labor force participation before the downturn was in the 66%ish range, so this is a meaningful decline (assuming California levels are […]
Read more...Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has not given up on his deflationary views, which until recently were quite an outlier. But some recent data releases give support to his downbeat take. From the Telegraph: CPI inflation has dropped to –2.2pc in Japan (a modern record), -2.1pc in the US, -1.8pc in China, -1.4pc in Spain, -0.7pc in France, […]
Read more...As much as commentators are trying to put a happy face on recent data releases showing that job losses are slowing, it still means that fewer people are working. Moreover, one element of the poor jobs environment that it not getting enough play is the way wages are deteriorating. Some who have full-time work have […]
Read more...Joseph Stiglitz takes issue with the view of economists (well, economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, which not surprisingly have a Pollyannish optimistic streak) that the economy is in or on the verge of a recovery. The real issue is the ongoing con job. Team Obama has made it clear that it […]
Read more...Reader John O pointed us to a very good post from the Economic Policy Institute which gives a thorough analysis of recent unemployment data and puts it in a broader historical context. Bottom line: it is not pretty. The fixation with looking for a turn in initial jobless claims as a sign of recovery seems […]
Read more...Note that while this Bloomberg story discusses that some major hedge funds are skeptical of the theory that the recovery is on, for the most part, it is silent on how they are implementing that view. Recall that even if a trader does make a correct fundamental call, investing successfully on it is another matter. […]
Read more...T. S. Eliot was right. Human beings cannot stand very much reality. As much as I have an appetite for bearish views (I figure the optimist case gets disproportionate air time), the headline of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s latest piece, “Our quarter-century penance is just starting,” is grim even by the standards of the bearish faithful. Evans-Pritchard, […]
Read more...By Andrew Kaplan, a hedge fund manager: It has become fashionable among equities managers of the bullish persuasion to argue that a strong recovery in GDP will occur in 2010 because the “structural adjustment period” of moving back to a more normal savings rate has been completed. We’ve gone from a savings rate of barely […]
Read more...It must be lonely being a China bear….particularly for those dubious about its longer term prospects, as opposed to those who might simply think its stock market is a bit ahead of itself even after its recent correction. Vitaliy Katsenelson, in an article at MorningStar, beings almost sounding a tad persecuted before he warms up […]
Read more...Reader John O passed along this Bloomberg chart du jour (click to enlarge) which effectively argues that the consumer has gone down so far she has nowhere to go but up: The related article argues: ….these so-called discretionary goods and services accounted for a smaller percentage of consumer outlays last quarter than at any other […]
Read more...Some investors see the Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for the shipping rates for dry bulk cargoes, as an indicator of international trade activity. BDI is admittedly noisy, and so needs to be interpreted along with other information. Chinese imports have been a driving factor in commodities demand, which drives the BDI. The price of […]
Read more...Fitch released an analysis that shows that mortgage cure rates, meaning the proportion of borrowers who manage to get current once they fall behind, have tanked. From the Wall Street Journal: The report from Fitch Ratings Ltd., a credit-rating firm, focuses on a plunge in the “cure rate” for mortgages that were packaged into securities. […]
Read more...By Moses Kim of Expected Returns: Moving forward, the most critical indicator of the viability of our economy will be consumer spending. Simply put, without a buoyant consumer, there will be no recovery. Due no doubt to the negative characteristics of consumer data. the death of the consumer is receiving scant coverage. America is a […]
Read more...Nouriel Roubini verged on apocalyptic during the course of the crisis, and was proven largely right. Now that he has softened his stance, some have accused him of moderating his tone as a result of his much higher profile. While that’s possible, a couple of factors seem more likely. First and foremost, much of Roubini […]
Read more...This blog is a card carrying hater of the stress test farce of earlier this year, The Treasury said from the start that the purpose of the stress tests was to restore confidence and show that the 19 banks tested, which hold 70% of the nation’s deposits, were well capitalized, and then said more or […]
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