I am now wondering if Google censors posts (I use Blogger), I put this post up at 1:33 AM, and even had a reader e-mail me that the post had disappeared (with no listing in “Recent Posts” which happens if I put up a post and then remove it). I have a record that it […]
Read more...Price deflation isn’t necessarily a bad thing if it is short-lived and does not lead to downward pressure on wages. But falling wages produces a nasty spiral. Not only do consumers have less to spend, but worse, even if they keep their jobs, they can be legitimately worried about even lower pay packages down the […]
Read more...Despite a not-as-bad-as-feared Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving), retail sales fell in November. Analysts expect the financial releases next week to show a continued contraction in consumer spending (a broader measure, including services, is due for release this week). And housing data is anticipated to be not-so-hot either. I don’t pretend to have any […]
Read more...Earlier today, George Bush made a surprisingly candid set of remarks, signaling a desire to avoid a disorderly collapse for the large US car manufacturers, and ambivalence about Chapter 11. The stock market started downward, and the trajectory accelerated with Standard & Poors putting GE’s ratings outlook at “negative,” meaning it is at risk of […]
Read more...There had been rumors that Treasury would unveil a rescue plan for the Big Three on Wednesday. The day came and went with no announcement. Tonight we learn, via the Wall Street Journal, that Cerberus has revived merger talks for Chrysler with GM. The possibility of a deal would seem to complicate vastly an attempt […]
Read more...The Fed made official its move to quantitative easing today, and said it will take no prisoners until it has lowered rates and credit spreads further: The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability… The focus of the Committee’s policy going forward […]
Read more...Last winter, we heard a story of a family in Vermont burning antique furniture to stay warm. Even before the economy turned decisively south, payment stress was high, and even if we have mild winter (this week is not an encouraging harbinger), more customers will fall behind. From the Wall Street Journal: One in five […]
Read more...The advocates of having GM and/or Chrysler file for Chapter 11 make their case often implicitly or explicit resting on certain assumptions. The fundamental notion is that Chapter 11 will produce less, or at least no more, economic damage than some combination of rescue funding and auto industry downsizing. Now we are willing to grant […]
Read more...Although talk of deep OPEC production cuts and hopes for an auto industry rescue have given oil prices a boost, the fundamentals are far from out of the woods. Indeed, as OPEC bravely claimed demand and supply really weren’t so far out of whack (was that at effort to set the stage for a less-than-hoped […]
Read more...This is seriously not good, particularly since extending unemployment benefits is one of the preferred mechanisms for economic stimulus (unlike other ways of getting money to citizens, this mechanism is likely to lead to pretty much all being spent, which is the object of the exercise). Now some way will be found to make sure […]
Read more...Markets in Asia are staging a peppy rebound rally on the assumption that US rescue of the Big Three is in the cards. No one seems to be taking seriously the possibility that bankruptcy is inevitable for GM and perhaps Chrysler. And were that to take place, opinion is sorely divided as to what that […]
Read more...The most accurate banking analyst, Meredith Whitney, has warned that banks are likely to continue to restrict consumer credit, particularly if reforms to end “gotcha” practices, like universal default and double-cycle billing, are implemented. Credit card issuers shifted their model away from one where they earned a reasonable return from all types of customers – […]
Read more...I’m reproducing the bulk of a very good (and possibly final) post by London Banker, a former central banker and securities regulator, that takes issue with some of the conventional wisdom surrounding the efforts to remedy our economic crisis via liberal applications of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. I happen in general to be sympathetic […]
Read more...GM and Chrysler have been stretching payables, which means that many auto parts suppliers are in dire cash flow straits. And if auto parts makers fail, it doesn’t hurt just the Detroit car makers, but the foreign transplants as well. From the New York Times: With Congress failing to agree on a bailout for Detroit, […]
Read more...We had doubted the earlier Bloomberg report claiming a deal had been cinched, since an hour later, there was no corroborating report. So now a rescue falls to Paulson. From the Washington Post: An eleventh-hour effort to salvage a proposed $14 billion rescue plan for the auto industry collapsed tonight as Republicans and Democrats failed […]
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