This is far from the first time that initially positive GDP readings were later revised into negative territory. Fourth quarter growth, initially posted at 0.6% of GDP, was revised down to -0.25 today and first quarter to 0.9% from 1.0%. But what appears to have gotten the market’s attention was that the rebate checks had […]
Read more...Something’s in the air…news of recession everywhere. Or so it seems this evening. First, readers Michael and Scott sent us Jeremy Grantham’s latest newsletter. Grantham is known as a perma-bear, and his call that a major bank would fail in the next five years (this about two years ago) was seen as a symptom that […]
Read more...The proportion of Americans designated as “involuntary part-time” hit a record high. This development would seem to undercut the unexpectedly upbeat news from the ADP payroll report earlier this week, that an unexpected 9,000 jobs had been added. Some experts warn that these reductions in work hours are a precursor to workforce reductions. From the […]
Read more...Readers may know I am a big fan of Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, his frequent research partner and co-author. One of my reasons is that he is much more empirically-oriented than most Serious Economists. One recent bit of Reinhart/Rogoff research that has gotten some attention (but in my mind, still not enough) is their […]
Read more...If Starbucks, which sells an addictive staple at an only somewhat upmarket price point, is having to retrench, it’s a no-brainer that other consumer discretionary spending is taking an even bigger hit. But to date, the results are mixed. Movies, which in many places don’t require much driving, are holding up well. And they did […]
Read more...It no doubt seems absurd to question the idea that deleveraging in underway. We’ve had three heroic central bank interventions, starting in August 2007, to reverse seize-ups in the money markets. The asset backed commercial paper market has been almost in run-off mode. Leveraged buyout loans have been scarce to non-existent. Banks have cut home […]
Read more...There have been quite a few anecdotes about a new tough-mindedness among banks, and it is finally showing up in the data. From the New York Times: Two vital forms of credit used by companies — commercial and industrial loans from banks, and short-term “commercial paper” not backed by collateral — collectively dropped almost 3 […]
Read more...The UK’s GDP is a direct casualty of its housing slump. From the Telegraph: The Office for National Statistics reported that Britain’s gross domestic product grew by only 0.2pc in the second quarter – the slowest quarterly growth for three years… They also warned that the figures showed that although strong growth in April helped […]
Read more...Big state budget shortfalls are an inevitable side effect of a weak economy. The Wall Street Journal reports that the decline is projected to leave states with an aggregate deficit three times the level last year, and suggest that the economy may be weaker than the GDP stats suggest. FYI, I was just on a […]
Read more...As he is often wont to do, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard worries, in dire terms, about the poor prospects for growth and stability, It would be easy to dismiss him as histrionic were it not for the fact that some commentators who have been right so far about the progress of the credit crunch, are also hyperventilating. […]
Read more...The headline of this International Herald Tribune article (hat tip reader Saboor) is a real sign of the times. The short answer is our policies assume the answer is yes, but if we don’t course correct, that assumption is likely to be tested. Specifically, the argument goes, our trading partners will continue to be willing […]
Read more...Full disclosure: I have a great deal of respect for both Tim Duy and the hedge fund manager Scott who is also quoted in this post. As you will see, Duy wrote an interesting post addressing a question posed by Brad DeLong, in essence “Since we are in the midst of the worst financial crisis […]
Read more...Even the rich are feeling the pinch of this downturn a bit. Some of it is that even the wealthy cut back in bad times (if nothing else, conspicuous consumption becomes a tad unseemly), but in addition, the rich are more levered generally speaking than heretofore, so some may also have good reason for caution. […]
Read more...The Bloomberg report on Minneapolis Fed president Gary Stern’s hawkish views noted that he has a more sanguine view of the health of the financial system than other FOMC members do. From Bloomberg: The Federal Reserve shouldn’t wait until financial and housing markets stabilize to raise interest rates, central bank policy maker Gary Stern said. […]
Read more...Ambrose Evans-Pritchard appears to be trying to corner the market in apocalyptic financial news. But his sources aren’t evangelicals, survivalists, or even goldbugs. The experts he cites are with respected financial firms, meaning they don’t sound alarms casually. Even more significant, the terms they are using to describe what might be coming are uncharacteristically dire. […]
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