Note the not-pretty pattern. The flow of funds out of emerging markets has reached the high-water mark of the period leading into the Asian, then Russian financial crises of 1997-1998. However, after recovering from the damage of this period, emerging markets as a whole enjoyed a period of strong growth. In theory, their economies are […]
Read more...Wow. And remember, the prior release’s ncrease, to 5.7%, was hoped to be due to anomalies. There was discussion at that time that it might fall back with the next month’s announcement. This may put a nail in the coffin as far as rate increase talk at the Fed is concerned. From the Wall Street […]
Read more...Macro investor Marc Faber, a commodities bull until the spring of this year, says that commodities have further to fall. From Bloomberg: Oil will likely drop further in the next three to six months, according to investor Marc Faber, who reiterated his forecast that the second half of 2008 won’t be “favorable” for commodities. The […]
Read more...The Independent reports that consumers have slammed on the brakes as far as shopping is concerned. The story draws on survey data, and contradicts official retail sales, which showed a modest gain. However, the aggregate data includes petrol and food vendors, so the real change was probably negative. From the Independent: Retailers delivered their worst […]
Read more...Last year, we put America on Banana Republic watch, and sadly, things appear to be playing out as we feared: I’m certain you’re familiar with the expression “death wish.” I am beginning to wonder whether America has a banana republic wish. The country has been taking steps towards being a small-minded, elite-dominated, sham democracy. Mind […]
Read more...Anyone who has ever worked in a large organization knows that the underlings are frequently overruled by the higher-ups. The Federal Reserve is apparently no different. A piece in today’s Financial Times, “Fed minutes bearish on growth,” reports that Fed staffers foresee continuing economic weakness, which in turn made them more sanguine about inflation than […]
Read more...Forgive me tonight for relying more heavily on other people’s material than usual, but 1) it’s good stuff, 2) it’s an end of summer weekend, and I’m suffering from diminished productivity (the Olympics haven’t helped), 3) I foolishly wasted a lot of time and energy corresponding with a reader who was mightily unhappy with my […]
Read more...A story in the New York Times warns, “Some Fear Commercial Property Loans Will Be Next Stage in Downturn.” This is news? I’m in a lazy mood, so I will merely search old posts. Fitch warned in April 2007 (yes, the year is no typo) of the lousy quality of commercial real estate loans and […]
Read more...This cheery update came via reader Michael. Note the Goldman report, which says half the world is in or close to being in contraction mode, includes the US in that camp. Further note that the “two quarters of negative growth” is not a hard and fast rule; the NBER, which is in charge of making […]
Read more...Stories by Bloomberg and Reuters on a talk by Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist for the IMF and currently a Harvard professor, fail to mention perhaps his most relevant credential as far as opining on the US credit crunch is concerned. He and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland have done an extensive study […]
Read more...We had written in mid July that money supply in the US, as measured by M1 and M2, had been contracting for several month s . Eurozone M1 growth had also fallen to near zero growth levels, and M4, the broadest measure of money in the UK, had actually dipped into negative growth territory. As […]
Read more...Despite the resurgence of the dollar, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard remains unconvinced that things in the US are now as rosy as the new found (albeit guarded) optimism suggests. He comes by his view without disputing the view that the dollar rally has legs. I’m not very optimistic about that. Why? A drinking buddy with amazing connections […]
Read more...Reader Saboor was kind enough to send me an August 1 report by Stephen Roach, former chief economist of Morgan Stanley, now chairman of its Asian operations. It’s noteworthy in two respects. First, although Roach remains a long-term dollar bear, he made a well timed call that it was oversold, due for a rally, and […]
Read more...Two very good posts I suggest you read immediately: one by Michael Shedlock, “Implications of the Slowing Global Economy” which at its close makes the case for deflation, and a rebuttal from Steve Waldman, “Why Inflation“. Both are thoughtful, and as much as Waldman has the stronger argument, I suspect he will not be proven […]
Read more...This post is by Jim Fitch of Some Assembly Required. Americans want cheap fuel, no matter what it costs. Sign Here: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley. The Usual Suspects. Now they want to take over all the pension funds. With Uncle Sam’s help, blessing, and taxpayer backing. Sort of a consolation prize for not getting their […]
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