Satyajit Das, of Traders, Guns & Money fame, is keeping tabs on what he calls GFC plot lines, or what one might also call The Search For The Guilty. The latest caught in the dragnet is…economists! But Das thinks some of the books still miss key issues. From Das: Just when I had finally worked […]
Read more...In a Financial Times comment. Michael Pettis gives a well-reasoned and glum forecast for Chinese growth, namely, that it is unlikely to exceed 5% to 7% over the next few years. The reason he sets forth is that China was able to show growth rates in excess of domestic consumption growth thanks to US exports. […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Down 1.5% was the consensus expectation. But Q1 was revised down to minus 6.4% from 5.5%. The GDP Deflator for Q2 came in at 0.2%, which shows that disinflation risks tipping into deflation still. The dollar is weaker and the short end of the treasury curve is up […]
Read more...A new dynamic appears to be emerging on the housing front. Heretofore, foreclosures were strongly correlated with where the mania had been most acute. California, Florida, and Arizona in particular showed dramatic declines in prices. But now as those markets have corrected to a considerable degree, foreclosure activity is now starting to be a function […]
Read more...We’ve been told that one of the reasons China is allegedly faring less badly than might be expected, given than big creditors tend to take it on the chin worse in global crises than debtors, who can simply default, is that its economy was actually more reliant on domestic capital spending than exports as a […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Citigroup has just released a forecast which is very troubling in regards to employment and growth in the Spanish economy. With unemployment already having hit 17.9%, Citigroup expects layoffs to increase this to 22% in 2010. Below is my translation of the Spanish-language article in Finanzas. The stabilization […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. I just read a CNBC story which fails to mention CNBC’s involvement in the apparently erroneous report that Nouriel Roubini has suddenly become more bullish. Is this omission justified? The controversy centers on statements Roubini made regarding the timing of a technical recovery in the United States. Yesterday, […]
Read more...Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who has been consistently alarmed about Europe (and often charged in comments of going overboard in general, and on this topic in particular) sounds a particularly loud alarm on Europe, based on the view that the ECB has not eased enough. I have limited insight here. I have been told that German banks […]
Read more...China has had two failed bill auctions this week, due to fears the government, which has started to raise rates, will continue down that path to curb money supply growth. Yet with growth flagging (anything under 8% is inadequate to absorb new workers), choking off stimulus now does not seem well timed. From Bloomberg: China […]
Read more...Even though the Baltic Dry Index, which measures freight rates rates for bulk transport, is well off its lows, other indicators of shipping activity are less encouraging. Containers shipment, which handles higher value added goods, is still falling and is expected to remain low in 2010. From the Los Angeles Times (hat tip DoctoRx): Trade […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Laura Tyson, an advisor to President Barack Obama, said in a speech to day in the lead up to the –8 conference that the ground work for a potential second stimulus bill must be laid now. To be sure, the G-8 leaders are expected to recommend continued policy […]
Read more...While oil is a finite resource, focusing on the long term can blind one to near-term dynamics. There has been surprisingly little mention in the mainstream media of how large the current oil surplus is. The collective view seems to be that this will take care of itself in short order. But that may be […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. This post is from Niels Jensen of Absolute Return Partners. I have featured his monthly newsletter a number of times on Credit Writedowns (here’s the link to the last one, hilarious title). Jensen is very good. Visit www.arpllp.com to learn more about Absolute Return Partners and to sign […]
Read more...Dear readers, we are NOT setting out to have a Willem Buiter-fest this weekend. It’s simply that this is a slow news period and Buiter has a good post after the first video clip I’ve ever seen of him. So if there was more activity, the Buiter-density would be lower. The Anglophile Dutch economist has […]
Read more...The dour consumer sentiment readings said that the great unwashed are smarter than the financial talking heads. They had ceased to be impressed with the “green shoots” theory. Lo and behold, worse than expected employment data has proven them right. We’ve pointed out that the Carmen Reinhart/Kenneth Rogoff analysis of past severe financial crises suggests […]
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