It appears the US central bank got taken to the woodshed at a conference hosted by the New York Fed for overly aggressive rate cuts, but despite jeering from the peanut gallery, it looks likely that the Fed will hold pat until at least the fall. While I have no idea of how representative his […]
Read more...While some writers in the US have taken note of the fact that the Fed’s rate cuts have propelled the US into negative real interest rate territory, until recently, the role of overly-permissive monetary policy in inflation-fraught countries like China and the Gulf States has gotten comparatively little attention. Last week, the Economist devoted an […]
Read more...It has been truly remarkable how consumer spending has held up, well, appeared to hold up, in the face of strong headwinds. Household debt to equity at record levels. Fewer refis to facilitate dis-saving as an illusion of prosperity. Home equity lines cut back. A deteriorating employment market (not-so-bad employment stats masking a fall in […]
Read more...Funny how it takes a survey to confirm what any reader of the press ought to know right now: consumers, hit by rising fuel and food prices, expect a higher level of inflation for the next 12 months (5.2%, according to a Reuters/University of Michigan survey): One of the things that has led the Fed […]
Read more...The dollar rose today, and gold has fallen below $900 as f this writing due to revisions in the first quarter GDP release that increased growth from “anemic” to “slightly less anemic”. Note that there was considerable skepticism about the initial 0.6% GDP growth figure (the revised level is 0.9%) because the total was entirely […]
Read more...A reader pointed me to a great post at Institutional Risk Analytics, which consists of an interview with Richard Alford, an economist in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s foreign department during the heady years of the Plaza Accord and active FX intervention by the Group of Seven who now works as an expert […]
Read more...Yes, sports fans, I am late in reporting on this, but since the focus of the RGE Monitor-sponsored panel discussion was fundamental in nature, the loss of a few days in a slow news period has not lead to any sightings that would contradict either the tone or the specifics of the discussion. The panel […]
Read more...I am overdue on a write-up of a great panel discussion hosted by the folks at RGE Monitor (Nouriel Roubini’s blog/news service). It was all fundamentally oriented, so with the coming holiday weekend and lack of new news, you will not be any worse off for my delay (although I am annoyed that I haven’t […]
Read more...Just as we pointed out yesterday that different markets had differing implicit forecasts of inflation, not surprisingly, so too do analysts. What makes the outlook for inflation a legitimately a difficult call is not merely weighing the inflationary and deflationary factors, but also considering how the various actors might respond. The focus has been on […]
Read more...The warning from the ECB’s chief Jean-Claude Trichet. that the worst of the credit crunch may lie ahead, deserves to be taken far more seriously than other cautionary warnings. First, he has a reasonably good reading on what is happening with European banks (and our sources with inside connections have maintained for some time that […]
Read more...Perhaps I suffer from knowing a bit too much about the financial services industry in general and credit cards in particular due to my consulting work, but I’m amazed at the eagerness of investors to go bottom fishing there. Granted, card players like Discover weren’t making subprime loans, but with prospects for the economy at […]
Read more...The stock market is up so far today on mixed readings of the tea leaves. The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators rose unexpectedly, which elicited some positive reports, but Reuters was not impressed, noting that the 0.1% rise showed weakness but not a formal recession. The Wall Street Journal attributed the rise to analyst […]
Read more...Conventional wisdom is that markets are the best place to get unbiased forecasts, but we see a sharp divergence of views between what TIPS buyers and Treasury traders in general anticipate inflation rates will be versus consumer expectations and the continued high inflows of new funds into commodities. We’ve seen this sort of divergence before. […]
Read more...Willem Buiter argues that the focus on oil and food price shocks, which economists view as relative price changes rather than inflation, is muddying the discussion about inflation. He sees considerable evidence of widespread inflation and it’s central bankers’ fault. From Buiter: Inflation is rising just about everywhere. Why is this and what can be […]
Read more...One of the views widely bandied about is that a weak dollar helps exports, which means primarily manufacturing. Narrowly speaking, thats’ true, but in some respects there is less there than meets the eye. One element we have mentioned is that there are limits near term to how much the US can gain, in terms […]
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