Readers have taken to throwing brickbats when I post material that suggests that raising interest rates (at least in advanced economies) might not be a good move right now. We’ve said before that the reason the Fed kept rates too low too long was it looked at inflation as strictly a domestic phenomenon and ignored […]
Read more...The report Tuesday of worsening conditions in the auto market has led to a deepening of gloom on the employment front. Many private sector forecasters now expect workplace conditions to weaken well into 2009. In fact, these forecast might prove to be optimistic. Housing will probably not bottom before 2010 at the earliest, and given […]
Read more...The greybeards are not only chastened by the state of the economy, but as the example of Eli Broad illustrates, they are speaking up about it. That’s telling, because there is an unspoken rule in American business to stay upbeat, lest you unnecessarily scare investors and consumers who supposedly aren’t sophisticated enough to handle bad […]
Read more...The newly-released annual report of the Bank of International Settlements sounds as if it is unusually lively reading. Most official documents strive for an anodyne tone, while this one appears to be unusually blunt. However, while some reporters have their hands on it, the report is not yet up on the BIS website, so those […]
Read more...Consumer sentiment in the UK is pretty much on the same low footing as in the US. Our consumer sentiment hit the lowest level since May 1980. But the UK housing recession started after ours. Does that mean the Brits face up to reality faster than we do, or could their economy be on a […]
Read more...Larry Summer’s latest comment at the Financial Times, “What we can do in this dangerous moment.” is troubling both for its analysis of our economic mess and its remedies. Start with his first paragraph: It is quite possible that we are now at the most dangerous moment since the American financial crisis began last August. […]
Read more...Although it’s probably obvious to readers of this blog that the economy is going to become a bigger and bigger issue as the election approaches, campaign strategies often are not as responsive to changes on the ground as one might imagine. Perhaps the most stunning example was a comment in the Financial Times on Friday […]
Read more...A story in the UK’s Times give a recap of the gloomy forecasts for the US and world economy, including a particularly cheery prediction by a SocGen strategies that foresees that the Dow will drop to 4500 and the S&P 500 to 500. Not included in this forecast is a grim warning from Barclays and […]
Read more...Perhaps it’s merely the result of drafting in a bit more haste than usual, but the latest offering by Nouriel Roubini, “The delusional complacency that the “worst is behind us” is rapidly melting away…and the risk of another run against systemically important broker dealers,” is unusually heated in tone, to the point where it distracts […]
Read more...Some readers have suggested increasing tariffs as a way to reduce our trade deficit and shield US workers from foreign competition. High energy prices may be having the same effect. Increased transportation costs are leading companies to rethink how they source their products and shift to local producers where possible. A Financial Times story discusses […]
Read more...Economic Policy Institute discusses a troubling pattern. Historically, when the economy went south, a larger proportion of workers retired early. It isn’t clear whether they were offered packages, were sacked, or left for other reasons (say their job was redefined and they no longer enjoyed it), but the point is they left the workforce. Now […]
Read more...More signs of high gas prices leading to reduced demand. The Bloomberg article is written somewhat unclearly. The 2.7% fall in retail gas purchases is in comparison to the prior year.. From Bloomberg: U.S. gasoline demand fell 2.7 percent last week, a sign motorists are cutting back on vacation plans as pump prices touchrecords, a […]
Read more...The cold water Yankee crowd is not going to like the latest word from the IMF, which sees the US economy at close to a stall level on growth for the next six months. It believes that diminished demand will alleviate inflationary pressures and endorsed the idea of standing pat on interest rates for now. […]
Read more...In a VoxEU post, Guillermo Calvo argues forcefully that rising commodity prices are the result of excess liquidity rather than supply and demand. From VoxEU: Here, one of the world’s leading macroeconomists argues that the explosion of commodity prices is the result of a very real global financial storm associated with excess liquidity in several […]
Read more...Ah, just when you thought it might be safe to venture into the markets again, RBS sends out a red alert, warning private clients to prepare themselves for a full fledged rout in equities and bond markets in the next three months, with the S&P losing 300 points, or nearly a quarter of its value, […]
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