Greece Capitulates On Bailout, Reaches Four Month Deal
Syriza folded on its position of not taking bailout funds.
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Greece’s Fate in ECB’s Hands if Eurogroup Talks Fail
As most readers know well, Greece made concessions yesterday to the Eurogroup that, although contested as to how far they went, were seen as big enough concessions to win the support of Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Italy. But Germany’s Wolfgang Schauble almost immediately rejected them, setting the stage for a showdown today. As we’ve discussed from the outset, the biggest bone of contention continues to be “conditionality,” otherwise known as structural reforms. Greece wants to be able to revise some measures as long as it can still meet its primary surplus target. Germany insists a deal is a deal and Greece must reaffirm all the terms of its existing agreement.
The meeting is set to start in Brussels at 3 PM local time, so we’ll know soon enough how things turn out. The two sides are making friendlier noises as of this morning, but we’ve seen these public displays of collegiality before, only to be followed by negotiation ruptures.
Read more...The Logic of Greece’s Request for a Loan Agreement Extension
Yves here. There’s been a heated debate among members of the commentariat as to whether the latest proposal by the Greek government to the Eurogroup ministers was a significant concession or a carefully worded formulation that did not give much ground. This interview with Dimitri Lascaris, a top securities lawyer in Canada, gives a nuanced discussion of that issue, including the politics on the Greek and German sides.
Read more...Obama Administration Throws Greece Under the Bus; ECB Leak Recommends Capital Controls; Greece Weighing Capitulation (Updated: Germany Rejects Greek Proposal)
Things are not going well for Greece. It appears Syriza has largely capitulated to the demands of the Troika.
Read more...Greek Government Faces Cash Crunch Next Week
Greece is facing a cash shortfall even sooner than expected.
Read more...ECB Could Pressure Greece by Refusing to Increase ELA (Update: Small Increase Approved)
The ECB seems to be keeping Greece on a short leash by approving only a small increase in the ELA.
Read more...Mathew D. Rose: Greece – It’s a Revolution, Stupid!
As Greece’s struggles to secure relief from impossible-to-pay-debt that served to prop up otherwise insolvent French and German banks, and to be permitted to implement measures to reduce distress and restore growth, more and more observers are recognizing that this is really a struggle over democratic self-control versus rule by an unaccountable technocracy with inflexible rules, using finance as their enforcement weapon. This speech in the European Parliament today by UKIP leader Neil Farage echoes some of the themes of Mathew Rose’s post. Rose also explains how the many Germans justify the counterproductive destruction of a society that they have turned into a vassal state.
Read more...Negotiation Breakdown Exposes Widening Rift Between Germany and Greece
The negotiations between Greece and the Eurogroup are on a worse trajectory than conventional wisdom would have you believe.
Read more...Greece, Its International Creditors and the Euro
his is an excellent background piece on how Greece got where it is and how its various bailouts were structured. It also helps explain the past and current roles the various members of the Troika play and discusses the prospects for Greece achieving its aims.
Read more...Varoufakis Charges Eurogroup with Bad Faith Dealing in Negotiations
Yanis Varoufakis describes how he was presented with one memo before the Eurogroup meeting and a very different one at the meeting proper. No wonder the Greek side got upset with how the meeting was conducted.
Read more...Eurogroup Talks Terminated; Greece “Won’t Take Orders on Bailout”
As we indicated, we were doubtful that a deal with Greece on its bailout could get done, since if nothing else the two sides had irreconcilable positions on structural reforms. That was one of the biggest reasons for Greece rejecting the idea of extending the current bailout, that they did not want the strings attached, such as continued privatizations and further “progress” on labor-crushing market reform. The only way an agreement could have been reached would have been for Greece to capitulate on these issues, which seemed unlikely given how Syriza had risen to 80% approval ratings in the polls based on its Troika-defying stance.
So it is not surprising to learn that the bailout talks are over, with no agreement reached. But what is suprising, and not encouraging, is that if anything the Eurogroup hardened its stance against Greece and expected it to capitulate.
Read more...Michael Hudson: Ukraine Denouement – The Russian Loan and the IMF’s One-Two Punch
Will America’s insistence that Europe, Russia, and Ukraine act against their economic interest ultimately lead the US to lose Europe?
Read more...Ilargi: Ukraine – Trapped in Narrative
We’re offering two posts on Ukraine tonight, in part because Greece dominated our coverage last week, and each post covers a different aspect of this devolving situation. Ilargi focuses on the thin, as in WMD-in-Iraq-like, justifications for escalation
Read more...Michael Hudson: Has the IMF Annexed Ukraine?
Ukraine is going into an IMF program in even worse condition that Greece with its various loans from the Troika in 2010, and we can see how well borrowing more when you were already overindebted worked out for Greece. In addition, this interview with Michael Hudson makes clear that the loan to Ukraine is wildly out of line with IMF rules, making it painfully obvious that this “rescue” is all about propping up the government so it can continue to wage war rather than economic development.
Read more...Bill Black: The BBC Dismisses a Real Greek Economist as a Sexy “Ideologue”
Yves here. I know some readers have begged to differ, but Very Serious People are not described in the same terms as pop culture icons. Thus, as Bill Black points out, the “rock star” branding of Varoufakis is a way to depict him as a colorful, entertaining lightweight.
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