We’ve taken an interest in shipping as an indicator of international trade. The problem, however, is that the most readily tracked measure, transport costs, is more volatile than the underlying volume of goods shipped. Nevertheless, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of bulk shipments of dry goods, has tanked since May, and a […]
Read more...Although commodities prices have rallied from recent lows based on hopes that trade and manufacturing will recover thanks to various government stimulus plans, reports still show continuing deterioration or at best stagnation in shipment volumes. The latest sighting, on container traffic, comes from the Financial Times. Note that containers carry higher value added goods than […]
Read more...Although talk of deep OPEC production cuts and hopes for an auto industry rescue have given oil prices a boost, the fundamentals are far from out of the woods. Indeed, as OPEC bravely claimed demand and supply really weren’t so far out of whack (was that at effort to set the stage for a less-than-hoped […]
Read more...A comment in the Financial Times, “Prudent Asia is unlikely to bail out the west,” by David Piling, provides a badly needed reminder: societies watch out for themselves first. And the way they define their best interest may not correspond with what we think is good for them. Forgive us for repeating ourselves, but we […]
Read more...This blog, over the last couple of months, has intermittently pointed to the difficulties of obtaining trade finance (particularly letters of credit) as playing a role in the fall in international trade. Because L/Cs are a profitable backwater at most banks, serving smaller/midsized customers (big ones are more likely to deal with existing supply chains […]
Read more...Further signs that the Chinese economy is in the throes of a serious downturn. From Bloomberg: China’s exports shrank last month and industrial-production growth cooled, Fan Gang, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, said today. “Things are not so good,” Fan said at a forum in Beijing. “November figures will come out soon, […]
Read more...As the US, as the biggest creditor and exporter in the late 1920s was hardest hit by the Great Depression, China now looks to be taking the global slowdown on the chin. And in a further sign of distress, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of contracting prices for dry cargo shipping (and seen as […]
Read more...I came up with this in revising an article. The US circa 1929 and China now: Alpha creditor.
Read more...Even though the markets took cheer from China’s rate cut today, the move appears to be in response to an intensification of its economic woes. From Bloomberg: Some economic indicators in China showed a “faster decline” in November, the nation’s top economic planner said, underlining the urgency of government measures to support growth and employment. […]
Read more...It’s always a bit dangerous to generalize from one data point, even if if it is a big data point, like Long Beach, one of America’s most active commercial ports. Nevertheless, the New York Times uses it to present a vivid image of the economic, and in particular, trade slowdown. One focus is how imported […]
Read more...Some observers of the fall in US consumer spending have noted that despite the overall contraction, some merchants, such as Wal-Mart, are reporting solid sales gains. They infer that buyers are still spending, but have downtraded radically so as to reduce their total expenditures. While one needs to take care in generalizing from the US […]
Read more...Readers may know we have been concerned about the dramatic fall in shipments of basic materials, as reflected in the collapse of the Baltic Dry Index. This in turn, as we have also stressed, is in large measure to the difficulty of obtaining trade finance, in particular letters of credit. A very good post at […]
Read more...This front page New York Times story on factory closings in the Pearl River delta covers ground already discussed in some detail on this blog. However, its report gives more detail on the resulting labor unrest. From the New York Times: For decades, the steamy Pearl River Delta area of southern Guangdong Province served as […]
Read more...The latest back-handed insult may be yet another variant of the Bush “we don’t do multilateralism” syndrome. Unfortunately, as various pundits writing at the Financial Times have pointed out, the US’s stranglehold on power is slipping. Even Obama in the campaign repeatedly said that a country cannot maintain military dominance if it is not a […]
Read more...We have been reporting from time to time on the impact of the credit crisis on international trade. The main focus has been on how buyers and sellers of cargos are finding it increasingly difficult and costly to obtain letters of credit. However, a second effect is on shipowners themselves, both directly (via plunging freight […]
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