This post first appeared on August 24, 2007 This credit contraction is still young, yet we already have the spectacle of a full blown seize up in the money markets which has central bankers flummoxed. Normally, you expect this sort of panic after a few major financial train wrecks and weakness in the real economy. […]
Read more...One of our regular contributors chatted with a reporter at a major financial media outlet who was frustrated that management was not willing to let him dig into open mysteries from the global financial crisis. Fortunately, the Financial Times takes a broader view, and Gillian Tett today focused on a recent IMF report that describes […]
Read more...The Fed seems to be exhibiting a pretty bad case of “if all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail” syndrome, particularly when it has (or perhaps more accurately, had) other tools at its disposal. In case you somehow missed it, global markets got a bad case of deflation heebie jeebies […]
Read more...This post first appeared on August 21, 2007 A gut-wrenching two weeks in the credit markets have been capped by unprecedented moves by central bankers. The ECB’s offer of an unlimited infusion to member banks the week before last was followed last Friday’ by the Fed’s discount rate cut, which included stern warnings that those […]
Read more...Bloomberg tells us: The Federal Reserve’s decision to buy Treasuries and keep interest rates low will support “risk assets” without bringing down unemployment, said Anthony Crescenzi at Pacific Investment Management Co. “Low volatility tends to be good for the interest-rate climate,” said Crescenzi, who is based in Newport Beach, California at Pimco, manager of the […]
Read more...Some Fedwatchers were proven incorrect when the Fed inched towards a renewal of QE today by stepping up to buy Treasuries to offset shrinkage of its balance sheet due to principal runoff on the MBS it bought last year. The staff apparently favors renewed QE, due to the signs of faltering economic activity; the Board, […]
Read more...Is it any surprise that Wall Street went a bit off the deep end with the (admittedly barmy, but that’s a separate issue) Blanche Lincoln proposal to spin off derivatives desks? Derivatives, which are now deeply integrated in how dealer banks devise customer transactions and how they manage their own risks, are a large proportion […]
Read more...An article by Gillian Tett in the Financial Times, “Trading volumes retreat with investor trust,” contends that the notably low trading activity of late is a sign of deeper changes in financial markets: The most pernicious issue hanging over the system right now is a loss of confidence – not merely in the idea that the […]
Read more...According to Pimco’s global strategic adviser Richard Clarida and CEO Mohamed El-Erian, the new normal is not normal, and that has profound implications for investors. Some of the conclusions may sound a tad self-serving, in that Pimco is a bond shop, and fat tails implies more risk (or more accurately, higher odds of more extreme […]
Read more...Back in January, the preposterous projected 99-year return on this Green Oil caught my eye; it reminded me of an ostrich scam a few years back, under which, if you took it literally, the entire surface of the world would have been carpeted with ostriches rather quickly; to the great enrichment of all, naturally. Then […]
Read more...By Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive and Yves Smith A common fallacy is to assume that situations are polar: win/lose, black/white, hot/cold, heads/tails. But more often, given A, “not A” is not the opposite of A. Conventional wisdom in the financial media is that the settlement announced by the SEC over its […]
Read more...Goldman’s stock was trading at $140.15 at 3:26 PM today. It moved more than 4 points in the next ten minutes. I got wind that the settlement announcement was set for 4:45 PM at around 4:00 PM. I pinged a journalist at a major financial media outlet to find out whether there had been an […]
Read more...Simon Johnson deserves tons of kudos for pointing out that the US is in the hands of financial oligarchs, via his celebrated Atlantic article, “The Quiet Coup.” But having recognized a clear and present danger, he seems peculiarly willing to confuse non-solutions with meaningful measures. In an article at Project Syndicate, he incorrectly celebrates a […]
Read more...We’ve pointed out from time to time that the financial services industry has lost sight of its role. While helping companies borrow and raise money, providing investment and saving vehicles and payment services are all useful activities, the cost of financial intermediation is ultimately a tax on commerce. Perversely, some businessmen complain bitterly about how […]
Read more...The alert John Dizard of the Financial Times has taken notice of a development that has passed most commentators by, namely, that Greece is starting to restructure state debts. This hasn’t yet gotten the attention it merits because it’s bonds issued by particular government bodies (in this case, the Greek state hospital system) and the […]
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