By John Y Campbell, Adi Sunderam, and Luis M Viceira, first posted at VoxEU The historically low yields on Treasury bonds are the hallmark of a bubble, according to some commentators. This column analyses the relationship between bond yields, the stock market, and inflation over the past 50 years. It finds that the riskiness of […]
Read more...Most readers were not happy when I didn’t buy into the mainstream presentation of a the widespread news reports that a letter sent on behalf of a group of investors constituting approximately $16.5 billion (per the Wall Street Journal) of $47 billion (presumably face amount) of bonds was a Really Big Deal in terms of […]
Read more...As dramatic as this headline sounds, there is much less here than meets the eye. In addition, either the article that discussed this development is confused, or the underlying legal pressure is not well framed. First, let’s get to the report, which certainly sounds serious. BusinessWeek reports that PIMCO, BlackRock, and the New York Fed […]
Read more...As Satyajit Das remarked, our post global financial crisis malaise has some troubling elements in common with Japan’s post bubble era. One biggie is denial of the seriousness of the hangover, which per Das lasted for five years in Japan. The bizarre aspect of the crisis response in the US was the speed and recklessness […]
Read more...Three women filed a sex discrimination suit against Goldman seeking class action status. It has gotten some attention in the press and on the Web for not the best reasons, namely, the complaint recounts in some detail how one of the plaintiffs, Christina Chen-Oster a convertible bonds sales rep, had had a colleague force himself […]
Read more...As readers may know, Marshall Auerback is a portfolio manager and strategist, as well as a fellow of the Roosevelt Institute; David Franklin is a research analyst at Sprott Asset Management. Click here to view the segment. Enjoy!
Read more...This post first appeared on August 24, 2007 This credit contraction is still young, yet we already have the spectacle of a full blown seize up in the money markets which has central bankers flummoxed. Normally, you expect this sort of panic after a few major financial train wrecks and weakness in the real economy. […]
Read more...One of our regular contributors chatted with a reporter at a major financial media outlet who was frustrated that management was not willing to let him dig into open mysteries from the global financial crisis. Fortunately, the Financial Times takes a broader view, and Gillian Tett today focused on a recent IMF report that describes […]
Read more...The Fed seems to be exhibiting a pretty bad case of “if all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail” syndrome, particularly when it has (or perhaps more accurately, had) other tools at its disposal. In case you somehow missed it, global markets got a bad case of deflation heebie jeebies […]
Read more...This post first appeared on August 21, 2007 A gut-wrenching two weeks in the credit markets have been capped by unprecedented moves by central bankers. The ECB’s offer of an unlimited infusion to member banks the week before last was followed last Friday’ by the Fed’s discount rate cut, which included stern warnings that those […]
Read more...Bloomberg tells us: The Federal Reserve’s decision to buy Treasuries and keep interest rates low will support “risk assets” without bringing down unemployment, said Anthony Crescenzi at Pacific Investment Management Co. “Low volatility tends to be good for the interest-rate climate,” said Crescenzi, who is based in Newport Beach, California at Pimco, manager of the […]
Read more...Some Fedwatchers were proven incorrect when the Fed inched towards a renewal of QE today by stepping up to buy Treasuries to offset shrinkage of its balance sheet due to principal runoff on the MBS it bought last year. The staff apparently favors renewed QE, due to the signs of faltering economic activity; the Board, […]
Read more...Is it any surprise that Wall Street went a bit off the deep end with the (admittedly barmy, but that’s a separate issue) Blanche Lincoln proposal to spin off derivatives desks? Derivatives, which are now deeply integrated in how dealer banks devise customer transactions and how they manage their own risks, are a large proportion […]
Read more...An article by Gillian Tett in the Financial Times, “Trading volumes retreat with investor trust,” contends that the notably low trading activity of late is a sign of deeper changes in financial markets: The most pernicious issue hanging over the system right now is a loss of confidence – not merely in the idea that the […]
Read more...According to Pimco’s global strategic adviser Richard Clarida and CEO Mohamed El-Erian, the new normal is not normal, and that has profound implications for investors. Some of the conclusions may sound a tad self-serving, in that Pimco is a bond shop, and fat tails implies more risk (or more accurately, higher odds of more extreme […]
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