The world’s major central banks are now working at cross purposes, creating massive crosscurrents that are making life extremely difficult for investors. This isn’t likely to end soon. In fact, conditions should get worse.
Read more...If anyone doubted that Ben Benanke’s “we’re convinced the economy is getting better, so take your lumps” press conference after the FOMC statement last week was awfully reminiscent of 1937, the newly-released Bank of International Settlements annual report is tantamount to a kick to the groin. And to change metaphors, if the Fed’s sudden hawkish posture is playing Russian roulette with the real economy, the BIS just voted loudly for putting a couple more bullets in the cylinder.
Read more...By RJS, a rural swamp denizen from Northeast Ohio, and a long-time commenter at Naked Capitalism. Originally published at MarketWatch 666.
Lambert here: rjs does what he does every weekend: Covers the most important economic releases from the previous week. Thanks, readers, for your feedback on formatting from last week; I hope you see some improvements. Don’t hesitate to make more suggestions. Also, the FRED geekery is fun.
Fedspook
The financial news of the week came as a result of the two day meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee, which really produced no news on its own. The statement barely changed from the statement issued after the last meeting, and Bernanke’s responses to questions at his press conference after the meeting (pdf transcript) were pretty much a reiteration of his statements in testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress roughly 4 weeks earlier, i.e, that the economy was improving and they would soon be starting to taper off the from the $85 billion a month they’ve been injecting into the financial system, mostly by buying mortgage backed securities and reinvesting the interest proceeds of the Treasury bonds and MBS that they already hold on their balance sheet. However, market players must have not believed the first iterations, because as soon as the statement was released and Bernanke began to confirm what he’s already said previously, financial markets started heading south, and by the time the planet had spun once on its axis, prices in every market around the world & for most every asset class were down by 2% or more.
Read more...How many markets are in upheaval right now? We’ve pointed to several things that have been troubling about the Fed’s apparent view prior to the FOMC statement yesterday and the Bernanke press conference, which only rattled investors further.
Read more...The Chinese central bank is playing very high stakes poker. China’s interbank markets have been highly stressed for the last two days. An effort by the central bank to tighten in order to put a crimp on shadow banking activities looks to be spiraling out of control as one-week repo rates hit nearly 8.3% up 144 basis points in a day, and one-week Shibor has risen from its June 5 level of 4.8% to just shy of 8.1% today.
Read more...The financial media and investors were waiting tonight for Prime Minister Abe’s latest announcement on the extreme economic sport known as Abenomics. But his new installment dashed hopes, and after a short-lived rally, the Nikkei is down over 3%. But after the wild ride since May 22, when the Japanese index plunged 7.3%, a 3% decline is coming to look almost like normal daily volatility. (Well, now that it’s down nearly 4%, it might be a beast of a different color).
Read more...Yesterday, bonds fell sharply due to stronger-than-expected housing price and consumer confidence reports. That reflects the belief that the economy is mending, and as a result, the Fed will deliver on its promise to dial back and then end QE. Ten year Treasury yields rose to the 2.10%-2.11% level. Various commentators claim that rates will zoom higher either right over that point or at 2.25%. How worried should we be?
Read more...I welcome readers telling me I’ve missed something, but looking at the Fed’s problem from 50,000 feet, it appears that the the monetary authority appears to have set boundary conditions for its QE exit that it can’t meet.
Read more...Greece’s Prime Minister recently flew to China, to woo Chinese investors. In his bid to be persuasive, he adopted a radical narrative: Greece is a Success Story. A country that almost perished in 2012 is now on the mend; on the road to stabilisation and growth; a wonderful opportunity, currently, for investors to pick up ultra cheap investments and to benefit from the forthcoming growth. How much of this is true, however?
Read more...We’ve been skeptical of the private equity land rush to snap up single family homes for rentals. They’ve been a big enough force in the housing market nationwide to lead some commentators to question how solid the housing “recovery” is. Yet the combination of rising enthusiasm for housing and a richly-valued stock market is leading a raft of PE firms to ready IPOs as a way to take profits and establish valuations for their profit participations.
Read more...Bloomberg flagged that productivity gains in the US are tepid, and that’s a sign of economic weakness:
Read more...By Wolf Richter, San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive international work experience. Cross posted from Testosterone Pit.
Some of the crown jewels of corporate America have reported declining revenues and earnings, and have lowered their forecasts, and in doing so, have unleashed a flood of obfuscation and excuses – from Easter falling on the wrong date to lazy sales reps.
Read more...There’s a remarkable amount of optimism in the US financial media given the underlying health of the economy. Of course, the sort of short term investors that have come to dominate securities trading had been in a “risk on/risk off” pattern for a protracted period before commodities weakness and the remarkable run of the Nikkei has led to some renewed focus on relative values of various macro plays. But the markets are still dominated by an underlying faith in the willingness of central bankers to protect the backs of investors and limit any downside (while, ironically, many of these same investors howl about ZIRP and QE, which were clearly intended to goose the value of financial assets and real estate, with the hope that would lead to more consumer spending).
And why shouldn’t the professional investors (as opposed to widows and orphans who can no longer rely on low risk bond investments to produce adequate income) be pleased as punch?
Read more...Whither gold?
Read more...