After opening down (the Nikkei was down over 2.5%, the Hang Seng over 4%, Singapore over 1%), the specter of the US stock market blasting through two support levels in two days was treated, for now, as a thing of the past. In particular, the markets seemed to take cheer from the idea that Citigroup […]
Read more...Asian markets are keying off the ugly day in the US, with deflation fears at the fore and equity markets having broken through the lows of last month, which had been widely touted as support levels. The Nikkei is down 570 points, or nearly 7%.. The Hang Seng is down 5.5%. Mainland Chinese indexes are […]
Read more...As of this writing, the Nikkei is down nearly 500 points. Singapore is least trashed, down 3%, the Hang Seng is down over 6%. The apparent triggers are first, a lousy industrial output report out of China, confirming the various informal indicators of economic weakening there we have tallied, and second, a vote no confidence […]
Read more...Famed hedge fund investor and round-the-world motorbiker Jim Rogers is not very keen about financial assets these days, which is not entirely surprising given that he runs a commodities fund. Maybe the bearish outlook has to do with the view of the world from Singapore. Marc Faber, who makes most of his TV appearances from […]
Read more...A Wall Street Journal article, “Japan Worries It Faces the Return of Deflation,” contained an argument I found unconvincing: In the U.S., some economists say deflation may occur if market conditions deteriorate much further and job losses proliferate. But Teizo Taya, an adviser for Daiwa Institute of Research and a former policy board member of […]
Read more...A front page story in the Wall Street Journal discusses how continued forced selling by hedge funds was the proximate cause of the sharp selloff of the last two days (um, the simply lousy economic news. such as lousy payrolls, horrific retail sales, no sales of credit card bonds in the last month, and similarly […]
Read more...I am leery of formulaic approaches to investing and this New York Times article confirmed my prejudices. Conventional wisdown says forget market timing (you are bound to get it wrong and lose out). However, today Mark Hulbert advocates an anti-market-timing strategy: go into cash when markets become volatile. But that seems as difficult to execute […]
Read more...As the economy weakens, a predictable result is an increase in corporate defaults. In the early 1990s, the default rate on high-yield bonds peaked at 12+% (note some define the universe differently and come up with somewhat lower figures) The most recent Standard & Poor’s forecast, while noting a marked deterioration in the economy and […]
Read more...Over the last few weeks, and accelerating late last week and early this week, it looked as if a full bore run on emerging markets was in progress. Now with the yen taking its biggest dive in two decades and carry trade unwinds a temporary thing of the past, emerging market and currencies are staging […]
Read more...US equity markers were already having a very good day, even by the standards of recent high market volatility, where big snapbacks have become normal after sharps declines. But the very good day turned into a stunner after the announcement today of record commercial paper sales yesterday. The Dow rose 890 points, with a near […]
Read more...I had warned readers against assuming that because we had a bounce in the equity markets, that life would soon return to normalcy (“It Isn’t Over Until the Fat Lady Sings“). But I didn’t expect a rout like this, particularly with no looming news trigger. The yen has gone to 91. The Nikkei was down […]
Read more...The Nikkei was down as low as 600 below the previous day’s close. It is now down a bit over 400 points. Other reports from the region via Bloomberg: Asian stocks fell for a third day after Sony Corp. slashed its earnings forecast and South Korea’s economic growth weakened, deepening concern a global slowdown is […]
Read more...After the Fed, ECB,, Bank of England, and other central banks took unprecedented measures over the last month to restore liquidity and recapitalize banks, Nouriel Roubini sounded slightly less gloomy. He had deemed that the authorities has avoided a systemic financial meltdown, but a nasty, protracted recession was in the offing. It appears that Roubini […]
Read more...Big caveat: even though we have very strong opinions, we do not give investment advice. What we provide (aside from commentary) might be regarded as investment hazard warnings. You may nevertheless decide to go ahead after reading what we offer, but we hope you will proceed with caution. One thing most investors fail to realize […]
Read more...Another symptom of equity-market distress. And the New York Times also provides an interesting discussion of the behavioral implications of corporate officers borrowing against their holdings: When executives own big stakes in the companies they run, investors can rest a little more easily at night, knowing those managers have the shareholders’ best interests at heart. […]
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