Category Archives: Investment outlook

VIX Spikes to New Record as Fall in Stocks Resumes (Update: And Then Reverses)

It is nasty out there. From Bloomberg: The benchmark index for U.S. stock options reached 80 for the first time in its 18-year history, driven higher by equities extending the biggest slide since 1987 on concern the economy will continue deteriorating. The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, increased 15 […]

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Nikkei Falls Nearly 10%, Asian Markets Tank on Opening

The bloodbath continues, largely in reaction to the bad economic news reports in the US . From Bloomberg: Asian stocks tumbled, driving Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average down as much as 10 percent, as concern deepened that the global economy is headed for a recession after U.S. retail sales fell…. “Investors are still pricing in […]

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Dow Falls 730 on Deteriorating Fundamentals, Evidence Rescue Efforts Not Taking Hold (Updated)

Boy, that was short lived. The massive EU and US rescue efforts to pump equity into banks, the TARP, the increase in the Term Auction Facility (from $150 billion to $900 billion), the Fed offering unlimited dollar swaps to foreign central banks, and those monetary authorities themselves engaging in liquidity operations, appears to have come […]

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US Seeks New Short Sale Restrictions

From Bloomberg: U.S. stock exchanges may seek to impose a temporary ban on short sales for individual stocks that plunge as regulators seek to rein in short-selling. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market may file their proposal with the Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as today, said three people who have […]

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Dow Tanks 680 to Below 9000; Investors Fleeing Mutual Funds

On the one hand, I was mystified that the stock market was up in the morning session given that the money market seize up was not at all improved and several key measures had worsened overnight. I was wiling to accept the view that we might have an oversold bounce and saw several bloggers indicate […]

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Marc Faber Disses the Bailout Plan, Likes the Dollar

We have a certain fondness for Marc Faber: he knows financial history, he is refreshingly direct, not attached to conventional thinking, and has a record of generally good investment calls (and admits to his mistakes). Reader Dean provided us his latest newsletter, plus a story covering recent interviews (no, Dean is not his PR agent, […]

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Libor Surges to Nearly 7% But US Stock Futures Rise on Bailout Bill Revival Hopes

Markets continue to be roiled by the upset of the effort to pass the touted Paulson bailout bill. As of this writing, the FTSE and Dj Stoxx 50 are up slightly, but money markets took a beating, the reaction worsened by end-of-quarter factors. From Bloomberg: The cost of borrowing in dollars overnight surged the most […]

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Merrill: Low Treasury Yields to Go Even Lower

Conventional wisdom has been that Treasuries have been the yet another bubble as cash exited equities and other risky investments, first feeding a commodities spike, then seeking a better home in Treasuries. But Merrill’s David Rosenberg, who was in a decided minority in seeing deflation as the likely outcome for the US (he has for […]

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