The latest shoe to drop on the Goldman front is the report on Wednesday that the SEC was investigating yet another one of its synthetic CDOs, this one a $2 billion confection called Hudson. It isn’t clear whether the SEC will file charges, but this one has the potential to be particularly damaging in the […]
Read more...An interview with the Financial Times by Li Daokui, who serves on the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee, included an uncharacteristically candid comments on the state of China’s housing market and by implication, the direction of Chinese interest rate movements. From the Financial Times: “The housing market problem in China is actually much, much […]
Read more...Would you believe the chairman of a financial firm who told you that he was going to be able to pay off his loans to you when: 1. The company was showing a not-negative net worth ONLY because it had marked down its loans on its accounting statements by 7.5%, even when the loan agreement […]
Read more...By Yves Smith and Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive The Fed and its friends and enablers in power, most recently Rahm Emanuel, are fighting tooth and nail to beat back the Audit the Fed amendments to pending financial reform legislation. That’s unfortunate and misguided. Even a cursory inspection of the Fed’s disclosures […]
Read more...Ryan Grim at Huffington Post has parsed recently released transcripts of 2004 Fed Open Market Committee discussions that show the debate over the rapid rise in housing prices and concerns about global imbalances were downplayed at Greenspan’s insistence. For instance, the minutes reveal that Fed governor from Atlanta, Jack Guynn, was worried about signs of […]
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Read more...Bloomberg provides a summary of a report by Morgan Stanley that has tried to quantify the level of strategic defaults. The analysis seeks to identify borrowers who walk away from mortgages that they can arguably afford, and defines that group as those who go from paying on time to missing three mortgage payments in a […]
Read more...A correspondent e-mailed me about his belief that credit market valuations are more than a big dubious. For instance, subordinated tranches of commercial real estate bonds, which at the lows of last year were trading at 30 cents on the dollar are now at 90 cents. He thinks (and this is a space he knows) […]
Read more...By Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive, and Yves Smith Despite extensive credit crisis post mortems, many of the widely accepted explanations of what happened are at odds with facts on the ground. These superficial explanations are hard to dislodge because they tally with widely held beliefs about how the real estate and […]
Read more...By Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive The SEC’s complaint against Goldman Sachs on its Abacus 2007 AC1 transaction may have impact beyond just the facts in that particular deal. The case has touched off a firestorm of reaction across the globe now that a government enforcement agency has dared use words like […]
Read more...Bubbles are important for the country because there is nothing more dangerous and damaging to an economy than a great asset bubble that breaks. And this is something the Fed never seems to get. … We looked back as far as we could, [of the 34 bubbles we found over the years], 32 have moved […]
Read more...By Andrew Dittmer, a mathematician with hedge fund experience, and Richard Smith, a UK based capital markets IT consultant Readers of this blog are by now familiar with the incredible story of how a single hedge fund (Magnetar) managed to play a shockingly extensive role in inflating the housing bubble in 2006-2007. The story was […]
Read more...By Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive, and Yves Smith One issue that continues to puzzle us, in looking at the sudden furor about seemingly duplicitous dealings by investment banks in the real estate related CDO business, is that the focus thus far has been primarily on the investment banks that packaged and […]
Read more...Other shoes are starting to drop on the Goldman CDO front. The Abacus program spawned 25 CDOs, and it was logical to expect other investors and insurers of Abacus CDOs to consider litigation now that the SEC has started down that path. As we pointed out in previous posts, AIG had provided guarantees on some […]
Read more...At the end of last month I proffered three potential explanations for the continued fall in the US savings rate. The first explanation was that the economy was in a cyclical recovery predicated on asset price inflation and this gave enough troubled debtors breathing space to spend more freely. The second explanation was the opposite, […]
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