Category Archives: Real estate

Foreclosures Hitting Rentals Too

Thanks for your patience. Still in LA at the Milken Conference (I feel like I have been parachuted into a Pasadena Republican/Chicago School of Economics parallel universe, although I have managed to find some fellow apostates. If I spent enough time here, I might be brainwashed (social assent is very powerful). Thus I hope you […]

Barclays: Negative Equity Subprime, Alt-A to Soar

Barclays estimates that half the 2006 and 2007 subprime loans are in or close to negative equity status, which means this roughly $800 billion of mortgages is at greater risk of default. Note that their analysis used OFHEO data; Case-Shiller estimates of the fall in housing prices exceed those of OFHEO, which means this forecast […]

Quelle Surprise! Real Estate Lenders Fight Tough Rules

The New York Times, in “Loan Industry Fighting Rules on Mortgages,” tells us that the real estate creditors are fighting tooth and nail to gut new rules that the Fed intends to impose. The Times, apparently reflecting the sentiment of sources in the Fed, Capitol Hill, and consumer advocates, seems surprised at the vehemence of […]

First, Let’s Kill All the Servicers

As the housing/mortgage crisis has progressed, homeowner advocates and legislator have to get mortgage servicers to offer more loan modifications to struggling borrowers. Even though this housing recession has a far higher proportion of borrowers seriously underwater than past downturns, the logic of loss mitigation is still valid. It’s still better for the bank to […]

Quelle Surprise! National Association of Realtors Says Many Housing Markets Doing Well

A MarketWatch story “Home prices aren’t tanking everywhere,” has the all the earmarks of being a National Association of Realtors plant. Note that it’s even told from the perspective of supposedly well-meaning (as opposed to commission-motivated) brokers trying to educate clients that the press is wrong, things really aren’t that bad. Here’s the gist of […]

Mortgage Rates on the Rise

With all the cheery talk about how our credit crisis is a thing of the past, mortgage rates, as reader Scott reminds us, are moving up again. From his message: You’ll recall that some time over the last month or so, bullish commentators noted that with mortgage rates falling, resets of ARMs were no longer […]

A Possible Approach to the Mortgage Mess

On a post yesterday on how well (or more accurately, how badly) various state efforts to rescue homeowners were faring, reader Richard Kline offered a suggestion. Note that while I still favor the apparently destined-never-to-see-the-light-of-day idea of permitting bankruptcy judges to write down mortgages to the current market value of the collateral (the rest becomes […]

"Let Britain’s housing bubble burst"

I wish we had someone as well regarded as the Financial Times’ Martin Wolf giving the same message in the US. Wolf stresses that prosperity built on overpriced homes is illusory. He pans some ideas that are already being road tested in the US, and says attenuating an inevitable fall in prices is unsound. And […]

Forecast: $2 Trillion in US Originated Credit Losses

As the credit crisis progresses, the estimates of the total damage march relentless upward. Reader Scott passed along a note by Frank Veneroso, Market Strategist for the Global Policy Committee of Allianz Dresdner Asset Management, which gives a top-down and bottoms-up estimate of credit losses. Note that this estimate is based strictly on US consumer […]

States Increase Homeowner Rescue Efforts

We wrote last year that some states were getting into the “save the homeowner” act. While states and municipalities are in theory in a much better position to implement this sort of program, their efforts as of our last sighting (November) had yielded little in the way of results. Nevertheless, the proponents hoped that the […]

Fannie and Freddie Try to Get Tough with Mortgage Walkaways

While it isn’t clear whether homeowners with the ability to pay abandoning mortgages is as widespread a problem as the press would lead one to believe (Tanta at Calculated Risk has been skeptical), Freddie and Fannie appear to be taking no chances. The Chicago Tribune reports on measures taken by the two government sponsored enterprises […]

Maryland Greatly Lengthens Foreclosure Process

Housing Wire provides this report: Maryland governor Martin O’Malley joined with local elected officials and consumer advocates last week to sign emergency legislation that targets troubled borrowers in the state. Perhaps the most immediate industry impact will be felt by just one of the three bills passed last week — the obscenely-long-named Real Property–Recordation of […]

Rosner on the Prospects for the Credit Markets (Not for the Fainthearted)

Institutional Risk Analytics featured an interview with Joshua Rosner (hat tip reader bill) which focused on the outlook for the credit markets. We have a great deal of respect for Rosner; among other things, he co-authored a terrific paper, “Where Did the Risk Go? How Misapplied Bond Ratings Cause Mortgage Backed Securities and Collateralized Debt […]

Banks Backlogged by Foreclosures, Let Defaulting Borrowers Stay in Homes

We had read earlier of banks failing to foreclose in Dade and Broward counties because the marker was so glutted with properties for sale that there was simply no point. We heard yesterday of discussion in Cleveland of plowing largely vacant subdivisions back to farmland. A third indicator of the degree of real estate stress: […]