Category Archives: The dismal science

The Economic Risk of Excess Capacity

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a good piece up at the Telegraph on an issue that appears not to have gotten the attention it merits, namely, the level of underutlization of capacity and the risk it poses to anything dimly resembling recovery. Evans-Pritchard brings up a related topic, that deflation is a bigger issue that most commentators […]

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Guest Post: "Breaking News: The GFC was not caused by Beer Swilling, Cocaine Snorting Traders"

Satyajit Das, of Traders, Guns & Money fame, is keeping tabs on what he calls GFC plot lines, or what one might also call The Search For The Guilty. The latest caught in the dragnet is…economists! But Das thinks some of the books still miss key issues. From Das: Just when I had finally worked […]

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Guest Post: Is the Problem the Models or the Modelers?

Submitted by Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since them, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our model, but in ourselves–apologies to W Shakespeare The economics profession […]

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Guest Post: California’s IOUs Offer a Way Out of Its Fiscal Crisis

Submitted by Marshall Auerback, an investment manager who also writes at New Deal 2.0: Republicans and Democrats alike embraced legislation last week that would make California IOUs acceptable payment for all taxes, fees and other payments owed to the state – an action that effectively would mean that California is entering the currency business. Some […]

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On the Unwillingness of Economists to Recant, Even in the Face of Evidence

From a newly minted PhD, via e-mail: I ran into another Harvard student who recently had a chat with a senior economics faculty member who is telling students the following anecdote. Apparently the professor is involved in some way with the American Economics Review. The AER has a backlog of two to three years between […]

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"Orwellian accounting cannot damp economic cycles"

The very fact an op-ed piece (more accurately, comment, as they call them in the Financial Times) by Paul Boyle against airbrushed accounting needed to be written at all is troubling. A move is afoot that appears further advanced than I realized is to fool with financial firm statements so as to reduce the procyclical […]

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Taleb (and Spitznagel) Call for Large-Scale Debt to Equity

Nicholas Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel have a provocative comment up at the Financial Time today, In some ways, it is isn’t surprising for those familiar with his work on risk and uncertainty. On the other hand, it is an eye opener to see what an internally consistent, reasonably comprehensive solution to our mess looks […]

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Reader Sanity Check: Interest Rate Policy, Leverage and the Financial Crisis

There are some interesting things one learns in putting together a book. Blogging is a lot like working in watercolors, speed and confidence in execution are key, versus the oil-painting medium of a book. And you learn how many times you wind up scraping the canvas and reworking. I’m up to the sixth revision of […]

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Asymmetric information and corporate governance in bank bailouts

Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. So, things are looking a lot brighter we are told by most economists and policy makers. The crisis is over and the banking system is on the mend. Now is the time for true reform and for bankers to get back to business as usual. While the foregoing […]

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Guest Post: Discussion of "Animal Spirits" by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller

Submitted by DoctoRx, who comments on the economic and financial scenes at EconBlog Review: In thinking about Animal Spirits, I am reminded of Spencer Tracy’s comment about Katharine Hepburn in Pat and Mike: “Not much meat on her, but what’s there is cherce.” There’s not much meat on the bones of Animal Spirits, and what’s […]

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